Football Tips

Napoli have won five of their six home matches in Serie A this season, and are one of the favourites to go deep in this competition. Antonio Conte is excellent in domestic competitions and league campaigns, but less successful in Europe, as shown by Napoli’s results in the Champions League so far this term. 

Napoli have won their last three matches after a challenging period of the campaign just before the international break. This includes two massive victories against Roma and Atalanta, strengthening Napoli’s fight to defend their crown. They’ve won four of the last five head-to-head meetings between the sides, with Cagliari remarkably only managing to win one of the 27 head-to-head clashes.  

Cagliari have failed to win across their last nine matches in all competitions, losing five of them. They’ve really struggled against the elite sides in Serie A this term - recently losing out to Juventus, Lazio, Inter and Napoli. Napoli were 1-0 winners that league contest, having double the shots of Cagliari (20-10) and winning the xG battle 1.58-0.53.

Napoli have seen 2+ goals in three of their last five matches heading into this encounter, winning each of their last three - with two of those games seeing 2+ goals. They take on a Cagliari side that have seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, failing to win any of those matches. They most recently lost 2-1 to Juventus on the road, after a 3-3 draw with Genoa. 

Cagliari saw 2+ goals in the last round of the Coppa Italia as they ran out 4-1 winners over Serie B side Frosinone. Cagliari haven’t won a game since that victory, seeing 2+ goals in eight of the nine matches since. The exception in this run was a 0-0 draw against Como on the road, Cesc Fabregas’ side could have made more of the chances they had in that game with an xG of 1.06. 

Napoli have seen 17 goals across their six home games in Serie A this term (2.83 per game). There is a touch of vulnerability about Antonio Conte’s Napoli side this season, which wasn’t present as they raced to the title last season. Cagliari can take advantage of this slight vulnerability to contribute to the goal tally here, though Napoli’s scoring power at home can see them cover this line on their own.

Kylian Mbappe was on the scoresheet against Girona at the weekend, but the Frenchman didn’t quite have his best game - he racked up a total of five shots, but only hit the target from the penalty spot. It was an uncharacteristically wasteful performance from the 26-year-old, who accrued all five of his efforts within the box. 

However, chances have not been in short supply for Mbappe this season, as he is averaging 4.91 shots per 90 in the Spanish top-flight. With 42% of those efforts hitting the target, the Frenchman tends to be accurate, and Unai Simon will have to keep his wits about him.   

Mbappe was suspended against Athletic Club when these sides last met, but did find plenty of chances in the reverse fixture. He registered three shots, all of which hit the target, and was left frustrated by the hosts.

Athletic Club were successful in this fixture last season against Real Madrid, as a late goal from Gorka Guruzeta secured the three points for the hosts. That was Athletic Club’s first victory over Real Madrid since 2015, as Los Blancos have had the upper hand in this head-to-head encounter over the years. 

Athletic Club haven’t quite been able to replicate their success of last season so far, and they sit 8th in the league with a record of six wins, two draws and six losses. They have won just two of their last seven matches in all competitions, with those victories coming against newly-promoted sides Real Oviedo and Levante.

Meanwhile, Real Madrid have lost just one La Liga game this season, and are still challenging at the top of the pile. Los Blancos might not come into this clash in top form, but they have lost just one of their last 11 matches across all competitions.

Real Madrid were unfortunate to take just a point against Girona at the weekend, as their 25 shots and two big chances amounted to 2.52 xG, but translated to just one goal. It wasn’t completely one-way traffic at the Montilivi Stadium, as Girona still registered 10 shots, with four hitting the target. 

Thibaut Courtois was forced into making three saves - the Belgian shot-stopper is averaging 2.79 saves per game in all competitions this season, rising to 3.27 when playing away. This bet has landed in nine of his 11 away matches this season, only failing against Getafe and Levante.

Athletic Club will be confident of causing this Los Blancos side problems, particularly on home turf. They have looked like a more succinct attacking unit since the return of Nico Williams, and have forced at least two saves from the opposing goalkeeper in each of their last eight games at the San Mames.

In addition to his goalscoring exploits, Kylian Mbappe is averaging 1.51 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and has been fouled 12 times in his last five starts. Only Vinicius Junior has drawn more fouls in the league, averaging 2.2 fouls drawn per 90, while Jude Bellingham is not far behind on 2.17 per 90 across all competitions.

Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta will have the tough task of trying to contain Real attacking trio on Wednesday night, but the Spaniard is not one to shy away from a physical contest. In fact, Galarreta ranks 7th out of all players in the Spanish top-flight this season for total fouls committed, averaging 2.74 infringements per 90. 

Despite only starting 11 games, he already has six yellow cards to his name, and had to serve a one-game suspension against Levante at the weekend. However, he looks set to start alongside Mikel Jaurezigar midweek.

These sides have already faced off in a cup competition this season, with Stockport running out 3-1 winners over Crewe in an early round of the EFL Cup. Stockport were the dominant side on that occasion, registering an xG of 1.67 from 21 shots, 10 of which managed to find the target.

Crewe are the home side this time around, so they should be able to improve on the xG of 0.86 they registered in that 3-1 defeat. Crewe have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions - they’ve seen BTTS in two of their three matches in the EFL Trophy so far.

Stockport saw BTTS last time out as they battled to a 1-1 draw against Barnsley, marking the third occasion across their last five matches where they’ve seen BTTS. Stockport have rotated in this competition with the side embroiled in a battle for the play-off spots in the league, this has led to BTTS landing in all three of their matches in the EFL Trophy this term.

Sturm Graz sit seven places and seven points above their opponents here in the Austrian Bundesliga, but their home form is really interesting and suggests that Tirol could have some success here. Sturm Graz have only managed to win one of their six home matches this term, with 84% of their points coming on the road.

Tirol don’t have the best away record, having only won one of their seven away games themselves, but can take advantage of this weakness, which has seen Sturm Graz concede 10 goals across their six home matches. 

BTTS landed in this fixture last season as Sturm Graz ran out 4-2 winners. Both sides registered an xG of 1.0 or higher on that occasion, with a combined xG figure of 4.22. Tirol will be able to get opportunities against the title challengers, who actually have the worst home record in the division. 

Only Bournemouth (35) have picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League this season than Brighton (33 - 2.53 per game). Fabian Hurzeler’s side are averaging 12.0 fouls committed per game in the league this term, and this could rise further, with Villa winning 14.1 fouls per game in the top flight.

Brighton have picked up 2+ cards in nine of their 13 Premier League matches, while Villa have drawn 2+ cards in 10 of their 13 games - including each of their last six games in the Premier League. Brighton picked up two cards and committed 16 fouls in this fixture last season, offering real promise when looking to back Brighton for a couple of cards on Wednesday.

Danny Welbeck has committed 11 fouls across his 13 Premier League appearances this season (1.14 per 90) and will be in a constant battle with Ezri Konsa here. Villa are one of the few sides that haven’t really changed their style to suit the direction of the Premier League, with Unai Emery wanting his side to build from the back and through the thirds.

Konsa is a very important player in this process, he is comfortable on the ball and wins fouls regularly from opposing forwards. Konsa has won 14 fouls across his 12 Premier League appearances (1.19 per 90) - this is a record that ranks Konsa in the 91st percentile when compared to other centre backs when it comes to winning fouls.

Welbeck has committed a foul in three of his last five matches for Brighton, meanwhile, no side has won more fouls than Unai Emery’s Villa this season (184 - 14.1 per game). 

Ollie Watkins has had a tough season so far, with just one goal to his name across all competitions. This poor form has prompted Unai Emery to go with Donyell Malen to lead the line, and he has looked more effective than the England striker so far, as well as being a real shot threat.

Malen had five shots in Aston Villa’s 1-0 win over Wolves last time out, with one of these attempts finding the target. He’s taken 20 shots across his 13 Premier League matches (3.96 per 90) and can continue to be a vocal point for Villa here.

Brighton play with one of the highest defensive lines in the Premier League. It’s comparable to the likes of Man City and Arsenal, so there is space in behind for opposition sides to exploit, and Malen should be able to profit. His electric speed is a real asset of his game, and something that Villa desperately lack when he’s not in the side.

Both of these sides enter this clash in great form, which should lead to an entertaining contest. Aston Villa sit fourth in the Premier League, having recovered from their poor form at the start of the campaign. They’re only two points ahead of Brighton in a tightly packed race for the European spots.

Aston Villa have notably picked up 16 of their 24 points at home this season, with only two wins from their six away matches. Brighton can take advantage of this away record, having won four of their six matches at the Amex this term - Fabian Hurzeler’s side are yet to lose at home in the Premier League this season, netting 12 goals across these games (2.0 per game).

Aston Villa ran out 3-0 winners in this fixture last season, but the prior meeting at Villa Park saw BTTS as the sides contested a 2-2 draw. Both sides registered an xG in excess of 1.0 in that clash at Villa Park.

I am really concerned by Burnley's overall performance and trajectory. Whilst I don't doubt their spirit or attitude, the Premier League is a pretty unforgiving place, and Crystal Palace have tended to epitomize that, especially under Oliver Glasner.

Palace have had an up and down away record this season, but they have travelled to Wolves and won 2-0, beat West Ham 2-1, and beat Aston Villa 3-0 on their travels. They also boast a slight positive xG ratio away from home, creating 1.56xG to conceding 1.45xG over the course of the season so far.

Burnley's home record is where they have picked up seven points, but they have come from two wins against their fellow promoted clubs and a draw against an ailing Nottingham Forest. They have actually yet to win an xG battle at home this season, and have a big xG ratio deficit of 0.49xG to 1.9xG, in other words, they are conceding almost a goal and a half's worth of chances to their opponents per match at Turf Moor. This isn't going to lead to many successes, especially against a very competent Palace side.

The Burnley right back has been a first team regular, but he has definitely been more of a fouls magnet than his price here suggests.

Indeed, there has been only one match in Walker's last nine in which he hasn't conceded at least one foul. He is averaging 1.23 fouls per 90, and he is also playing every minute for Burnley, so that per 90 number is very relevant for him here.

With Palace tending to play two #10s rather than wide forwards, Walker may be more up directly against Tyrick Mitchell. Mitchell draws 1.18 fouls per 90 this season, and just inside him, Yeremi Pino is a fouls magnet as well, drawing 1.63 fouls per 90. This combination looks good for drawing fouls against Walker here.

This is a selection more based on Burnley at home than Palace away. Burnley have conceded an average of 6.83 corners per match at home, which is actually higher than their average away from home. Only Sunderland, on the second weekend of the season, didn't beat the chosen line here. Since then, Liverpool won 13, Forest 5, Leeds 5, Arsenal 6, and Chelsea won 9. 

Palace aren't massive corner winners, but they are consistently above this line regardless. Indeed, the last time they won fewer than four corners in a match was five matches ago when they played Arsenal away, and they won three, so not really a negative to this bet.

Palace have averaged 3.85 corners this season, but have upped their corner winning in recent weeks, going 4, 4, 4, 6 in their last four Premier League encounters.

I am surprised to see Mateta chalked up at a price over 1.5 here, because there is enough data and form out there to suggest that this should be more likely than the price suggests.

Starting with Mateta himself, we all know his game is a physical one, able to play with back to goal, but also able to run the channels for his team as well. He gets involved in a lot of physical duels, and fouls on both sides. For this particular market we can see that he is fouled 1.13 times per 90 over Palace's last 30 matches in all competitions. He has been fouled at least once in his last three starts, and in five of his last six.

Meanwhile, Axel Tuanzebe, playing at right centre-back for Burnley, is a regular fouler. He is fouling at a rate of 1.43 per 90 this season, committing at least one foul in his last five matches. Indeed, he committed three fouls last time out, then two and two in the matches before that.

After spending 14 years at Wolves, rising through the academy and eventually making his senior debut, Morgan Gibbs-White joined Nottingham Forest in 2022, and has received a hostile reception from the Wolves fans since then. The England international has haunted his formed club in recent years, scoring twice in the last three head-to-head encounters. 

Gibbs-White seems to up his game when he faces his former employers, as he has landed this selection in five of his last six appearances against them. Last season at Molineux, he scored the first goal of the game after just seven minutes.

The Forest skipper has been a key player this season with five goals to his name already. He is averaging 2.57 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season, and has landed this selection in each of his last four away league matches.

Wolves have picked up at least two cards in each of their last five matches in all competitions, and it comes as no surprise that they rank top of the league for total fouls committed. Their aggressive approach seems set to persist under Rob Edwards - in fact, their count of 21 fouls against Aston Villa was their highest tally of the season so far. 

Brazilian midfield duo Andre and Joao Gomes combined to commit six of those infringements, and they will occupy the same zone of the field as Elliot Anderson on Wednesday night, which is a matchup to keep an eye on. 

The English international has drawn the second-most fouls of any Premier League player this season, only behind Jack Grealish. Anderson is averaging 2.77 fouls drawn per 90 this season across all competitions, and was fouled four times against Brighton at the weekend.

It has been a tough season for these two sides so far, and with both struggling towards the bottom of the pack, this is a big game at Molineux. Head-to-head contests between Wolves and Forest were feisty last season, with a total of 10 yellow cards dished out across the two Premier League matches. 

Given the table context, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see tensions boil over and erupt into a high-card matchup. There were seven cards shown when these sides last met at the City Ground. 

Wolves looked visibly frustrated against Aston Villa, as they racked up four cards alone to clear this mark. Jhon Arias was also fortunate to escape a straight red, as he recklessly challenged Boubacar Kamara. That means Wolves have cleared this line in four of their last five matches in all competitions, with an average of 5.4 cards per game in that period.

It was another poor result for Wolves at the weekend as they succumbed to a 1-0 defeat, but there were some positives to take for Rob Edwards. Jorgen Strand Larsen had an early goal chalked off by VAR following an offside. Emi Martinez was also forced into some notable saves, including one to stop Yerson Mosquera. The Argentine international tipped Mosquera’s header onto the underside of the bar, before somehow scrambling the ball away.

That made it four matches without a goal for Wolves, but they have been regular scorers at home across the season, netting three in the EFL Cup against Chelsea at home, two against Everton (twice, in the Premier League and then the EFL Cup), and three against West Ham.

Forest were beaten 2-0 by Brighton at the weekend, as the Seagulls racked up 17 shots and four big chances worth 2.0xG. That result put Forest 16th in the Premier League standings, just one point above the relegation zone, with 22 goals conceded from their 13 league games.

Not many would have envisioned such a strong start to the season for Brentford, given how they lost key members of staff over the summer, but the Bees have been flying under Keith Andrews. However, there has been a real dichotomy in form at home, compared to away. Five of Brentford’s six wins have come at the GTech Community Stadium, while their only loss has come against Man City. By contrast, Brentford have lost five of their six Premier League matches on the road, shipping multiple goals in all of their defeats. 

The one victory came against an out-of-sorts West Ham side, who currently sit above the relegation zone only on goal difference. Based on that, this upcoming trip to the Emirates is set to be a tough test, especially given that Arsenal have won six of the last eight head-to-head encounters against Brentford.

Kevin Schade has featured much more regularly this season, and has become a key player under Keith Andrews. The main reason for that is his ability to press - Andrews’ has brought a much more aggressive style of football to the GTech Community Stadium, and Brentford have seen a notable increase in their foul counts. 

Kevin Schade has been a notable contributor to that, as he is averaging 1.91 fouls per 90 this season. Last time out against Burnley, the German international accounted for three of Brentford’s seven infringements, highlighting just how intense his press can be. Schade has already been booked four times this season, including against Man City and Liverpool. 

Schade was benched when these sides last met in West London, but he started alongside Yoane Wissa in the reverse fixture at the Emirates. He only committed one foul in that game, but it was enough to earn him a booking.

Along with Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice finds himself on corner duties under Mikel Arteta, with his wand of a right foot able to deliver some quality crosses. It was Saka who provided the assist for Jurrien Timber against Bayern, but Rice accrued three key passes, including one big chance created, which was wasted. 

Rice repeated that feat against Tottenham the game before - three key passes and one big chance created, but was this time rewarded for his pinpoint accuracy, as Eberechi Eze tucked away his first of the game. That was Rice’s fifth assist of the season after just 20 appearances, underlining just how important he has been in the final third.

The 26-year-old got into double figures last season, with 10 assists from 52 appearances, and he is well on track to better that tally this campaign. Brentford are a physical side, but Arsenal have simply been a cut above from set pieces, and Declan Rice is a key reason why.

Jurrien Timber opened the scoring for the Gunners in their 3-1 win over Bayern Munich last week.

In the absence of Gabriel, the Dutchman seems to have become the primary target from set pieces, and he has registered five shots in his last three games alone. Timber had an excellent chance to score the winner in stoppage time against Chelsea at the weekend, but missed from inside the box. Still, the 24-year-old has shown a tendency to pop up in dangerous positions, and already has three goals to his name this season. 

Riccardo Calafiori was substituted at half-time against Chelsea, which Mikel Arteta later revealed to be because he was at risk of being sent off. Anthony Taylor dished out five yellow cards in the first-half alone, with one of those going to the Italian international.

Calafiori has typically been rested for midweek games this season, but due to his lack of involvement against the Blues, could be given a start on Wednesday night, especially given how Myles Lewis-Skelly didn’t look particularly comfortable. 

Calafiori is averaging 1.54 fouls per 90 in all competitions this season, rising to 1.65 fouls per 90 when playing at home. He is strong in his challenges, and has landed this selection in each of his last four starts. His primary matchup midweek will be Dango Ouattara who is averaging 1.77 fouls drawn per 90 this season, the highest in the Brentford squad.

Under Thomas Frank last season, Brentford would set up in a deep block against the big sides and look to play on the break. Keith Andrews opted for similar tactics against Man City earlier in the season, and to good effect. It is likely to be one-way traffic at the Emirates, and Brentford should have plenty of defensive work to get through. If they do sit deep, the Gunners should spend most of the game in their attacking third, which brings corners into play. 

Arsenal rank 2nd in the Premier League for total corners accumulated this season, only behind London rivals Chelsea. Mikel Arteta’s men have been proficient from set piece situations this season, and they are averaging 5.7 corners per game at the Emirates. Meanwhile, Brentford have conceded a total of 13 corners across their last two league games, with this selection landing against Brighton and Crystal Palace.

Brentford have an incredibly poor defensive record on their travels, so there is a real chance that Arsenal cover this selection on their own, just as they did on their last visit to the Gtech Community Stadium. Gabriel Martinelli, Mikel Merino and Gabriel Jesus all managed to get on the scoresheet in that game, but Brentford did take the lead through Bryan Mbeumo, so they were at least able to give their fans something to cheer about. 

With key defensive injuries to Gabriel Magalhaes and William Saliba, the Bees will fancy their chances of troubling the scorers once more. After keeping eight successive clean sheets from October to the start of November, the Gunners have conceded in each of their last four, including all the games that Gabriel has missed. 

With 27 goals scored from their 10 matches at the Emirates this season, Arsenal have remained a strong unit going forward, and goals are on the agenda. 

Unlike last season, Dundee United’s matches have been relatively goal heavy this term, which makes over 1.5 goals an attractive option at Tannadice on Wednesday. 

Somewhat surprisingly, there have been a minimum of two goals in each of Dundee United’s 13 Scottish Premiership matches this season, with each of their last two home games breaking the over 2.5 goal barrier. It’s also worth noting that the Terrors' reverse fixture with Rangers earlier this season saw the two teams play out an action-packed 2-2 draw at Ibrox.

While Rangers were involved in a goalless draw on Sunday, 10 of the Glasgow' giants’ 13 Scottish Premiership fixtures this season have featured at least two match goals. Moreover, all bar one of the Light Blues’ six top-flight road games this season have delivered two match strikes or more, with both teams getting in on the act in four of those matches. 

While Dundee United are enduring a bit of a sticky patch at the minute, they will be fired up for this clash, and I would be surprised if they don’t collect a minimum of two cards. Jim Goodwin’s side have been one of the most ill-disciplined teams in the Scottish Premiership this season, collecting a sizeable average of 2.77 cards per game. 

In fact, the Terrors have totted up two or more bookings in 10 of their 13 Scottish top-flight fixtures this season, including each of their last four. What’s more, Goodwin’s team were shown no fewer than four yellow cards when drawing 2-2 with Rangers earlier this season.

While Rangers have been uninspiring for the most part this season, they have drawn an average of 2.00 cards per game from their Scottish Premiership opponents this term. On top of that, four of the five teams that Rangers have come up against in the top-flight since Danny Rohl took charge have gone into the referee’s notebook on at least two occasions.

One of the few areas where Rangers have been reliable from a betting perspective this season is in the corner markets. The Light Blues’ Scottish Premiership matches this season have produced an average of just over 10.00 corners per 90.

That flag kick output can be attributed to the fact that Rangers have been strong total team corner performers this term, averaging a shade under seven flag kicks per 90. It’s also worth mentioning that four of the Gers’ five league matches under Danny Rohl’s watch have seen both teams combine to deliver over 8.5 corners.

While Dundee United are not a side that are well known for racking up high team corner totals, they should be good to contribute to the corner count on Wednesday night, particularly in front of their own supporters. The likes of Dundee and Falkirk have earned four corners or more in recent duels with Rangers, so a Dundee United side that are averaging over four flag kicks per game are more than capable of following suit. 

Falkirk and Motherwell have been two of the Scottish Premiership’s entertainers this season, and I think that will lend itself to an action-packed encounter between the pair at the Falkirk Stadium on Wednesday.Yes, the two teams are coming into this clash off the back of 0-0 draws with Rangers and Hearts respectively, but I’m expecting the duo to get back on the goal trail this midweek. 

Goal-heavy games have been a running theme in Falkirk’s fixtures for the most part this season, with both teams scoring in each of the Bairns’ seven Scottish Premiership home games this term. It’s been a similar story as far as Motherwell are concerned this season, particularly on their travels, with six of the Steelmen’s seven top-flight fixtures away from Fir Park featuring goals at both ends.

The fact that both teams scored in this season’s reverse fixture - which was as recent as mid-October - only adds to the appeal of siding with a repeat at the Falkirk Stadium.

Hearts have started to wobble at the top of the Scottish Premiership in recent weeks, but I think that a home game with Kilmarnock represents an ideal opportunity for the league leaders to get back on track. 

While Hearts have dropped points in four of their last five top-flight outings, three of those stumbles have come on the road, with the capital club proving to be more reliable when going about their business at their Tynecastle base. In fact, Derek McInnes’ side have pocketed maximum points from five of their seven Scottish Premiership home games this season, hitting multiple goals in four of those five victories. 

That doesn’t augur well for a Kilmarnock side who have picked up just one point from their last seven Scottish Premiership assignments. Moreover, Stuart Kettlewell’s side have lost each of their last three league games away from home, shipping three goals or more in each of those three defeats. 

It's also worth noting that Kilmarnock were blown away 3-0 when hosting Hearts earlier this season, and I think the Jam Tarts’ superior class in forward areas will tell again.

Bayern Munich are unsurprisingly heavy favourites to win here and are priced at 1.27 to progress to the next round, though rotation could lead to Union Berlin having more of a say in this clash than the odds suggest.

Union Berlin are notably the only side that have managed to take a point off Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga this term, with their 2-2 draw against Vincent Kompany’s side a few weeks ago bringing an end to the winning run that Bayern had started the season with.

Union Berlin have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions. We can expect Bayern Munich to find the back of the net with ease having netted 44 goals across their 12 matches in the Bundesliga this season. Union Berlin should benefit from the expected rotation in the Bayern side, which should open the door for BTTS here.

This is a very low line for the away side to cover here, and although they are real underdogs (25/1 to win) - they should be able to benefit from the rotation in the Inter side.

Venezia are averaging 4.29 corners per game across their seven away matches in Serie B this term. Corners may prove to be one of the few avenues they have to goal here, with Inter being a really organised side when defending from open play. 

Inter Milan are conceding 2.57 corners per game in Serie A this term, reaffirming the fact that this is a very low line for the away side to cover. Inter are expected to rest key players for this cup clash, knowing that they have superior quality to the Serie B side. They are also likely to rotate, as they have big matches against Como and Liverpool coming up over the next week. 

These sides faced off right at the start of the year, prior to Venezia’s relegation from the top flight. Venezia registered four corners in that game as they lost 1-0. They lost by the same scoreline in the away tussle between the sides, racking up three corners on that occasion.

Inter have retained their defensive security under Christian Chivu, but he has also added an extra layer to their attacking play. This is largely due to the attacking reinforcements that Inter drafted in over the summer, they were a touch too reliant on Thuram and Martinez last season, so their extra depth could prove pivotal this term.

Inter have netted 28 goals across their 13 matches in Serie A (2.15 per game) and are more than capable of covering this line on their own. Their goal per game average jumps to 2.42 per game when looking at their home matches in Serie A this term, with Inter winning five of their seven matches in the Italian top flight.

Venezia have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, and could contribute to the overall goal count if they can take advantage of the expected rotation in the Inter side. If you’re after a more appealing price for this game, Inter to score 3+ goals is at 1.73, which is certainly more worth backing than Inter to win at 1.11.

Milos Kerkez looks well-priced to draw a foul on Wednesday night, given that he has landed this selection in all seven of his starts at Anfield, averaging 1.37 fouls drawn per 90. The 22-year-old hasn’t quite been able to showcase his potential since arriving from Bournemouth over the summer, but he does still seem to have the backing of Arne Slot, and the Hungarian international has started three successive matches at the back. 

His primary matchup on the flank is likely to be Bertrand Traore - although his average of 0.92 fouls per 90 is nothing to write home about, he has committed a foul in five of his last seven games. Four of the last five left backs to have faced Sunderland have been fouled - Riccardo Calafiori hit this mark, while Marc Cucurella was fouled three times against Sunderland back in October. 

The Black Cats have been a difficult side to face, and they will be confident heading into this clash at Anfield. However, they will face a tough challenge trying to keep this Liverpool side at bay. Despite their poor results in recent weeks, Liverpool have still been able to fashion good chances, they just haven’t quite had the rub of the green with converting them. 

Against PSV, the Reds racked up 27 shots worth 2.5xG, leading to just the one goal. Matej Kovar put in a standout performance, accumulating a total of eight saves to frustrate the hosts. Opposition keepers at Anfield this season are averaging 3.73 saves per game, so Robin Roefs will have to keep hit wits about him. 

Roefs has excelled in the English top flight this season, and he has landed this selection in each of his last five away matches for Sunderland. 

It was relief for Arne Slot at the weekend as his side beat West Ham at the London Stadium, keeping a clean sheet in the process. However, West Ham haven’t been a particularly difficult team to overcome this season - the Hammers are only above the relegation zone on goal difference, having won just three of their 13 Premier League matches. 

Still, Liverpool will hope that result can be the catalyst for change, and provide some much-needed confidence. Alexander Isak bagged just his second goal in a Liverpool shirt since arriving in the summer, and will hope for the floodgates to open. 

Prior to last weekend, Liverpool had shipped 10 goals in three matches, highlighting a real vulnerability at the back. Sunderland have pulled off some impressive results this season already, including a 2-1 victory at Stamford Bridge, and a 2-2 draw against league-leaders Arsenal - they'll fancy their chances of scoring at Anfield. Eight of Liverpool's last 11 matches have gone over 2.5 goals, as have three of Sunderland's last five.

Dan Ballard has been another standout performer at the back for the Black Cats, with impressive data when it comes to drawing fouls. The Northern Ireland international is averaging 1.42 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and has landed this selection in six of his seven starts when playing the full 90. 

For someone with such a powerful build, he does tend to hit the deck quite easily, which works to alleviate some pressure on his side and buy soft fouls. The centre back was fouled once against both Arsenal and Chelsea, games where the opponents were the dominant side in possession. 

He will likely be up against Hugo Ekitike in midweek. The Liverpool striker is averaging 1.63 fouls per 90 this season, rising to 1.74 fouls per 90 when playing at Anfield, which is one of the highest in the squad. It’s an excellent matchup for Ballard to improve his numbers. 

Arne Slot opted for some tactical tweaks at the weekend, but Alexis Mac Allister and Ryan Gravenberch remained in a familiar double pivot. The pair have played the full 90 alongside each other for three successive matches leading up to this clash, and are set to start again. 

Mac Allister is afforded more attacking license of the two, with the 26-year-old averaging 1.83 shots per 90 in all competitions this season, compared to 0.97 per 90 for Gravenberch. The Argentine international has seen an increase in shots when playing at Anfield, landing this selection in five out of nine games in total. 

In fact, Mac Allister has racked up six shots on target in his last three home matches alone, registering a total of 11 shots across those fixtures. Sunderland are likely to sit deep here, which should allow Mac Allister to pick up promising positions in and around the penalty area. 

Milos Kerkez is clearly more comfortable going forward than he is at defending, but he hasn’t quite been afforded that same attacking freedom this season. Under Andoni Iraola, Kerkez was given the license to bomb forward on the overlap, often getting to the by-line before crossing. This season, however, his overlapping runs have usually been ignored by Cody Gakpo. 

It has been a frustrating campaign for the 22-year-old so far, who has had a lot more defensive responsibility than he would have liked. He hasn’t been particularly convincing in his challenges, often diving in recklessly and mis-timing his slide tackles, which doesn’t bode well for him against Bertrand Traore. 

Riccardo Calafiori had a busy afternoon against Sunderland last month, as he racked up five fouls at left back, and was lucky to evade a booking. Traore is averaging 1.65 fouls drawn per 90 this season.

The Burkina Faso international has been a real livewire on the flank, and a difficult customer for opposing defenders to contain. Although he didn’t manage to register a shot against Arsenal, it is worth noting that Traore is averaging 2.39 shots per 90 this season, which is amongst the highest in the Sunderland squad. 

Additionally, Arsenal afforded Sunderland just six shots in that game - the Gunners have been head and shoulders above the rest of the league defensively, and Liverpool should be a much easier matchup for him.

The 30-year-old scored the equalising goal for Sunderland against Bournemouth last time out, as his side eventually completed a spectacular comeback. That was also Traore’s first goal for the Black Cats since joining in the summer, so he should be full of confidence here. He has landed this bet in all four away appearances this term, including against Chelsea and Man United.

Jayden Bogle has committed 14 fouls across his 13 Premier League starts this season (1.10 per 90) and is in for a tough clash here, potentially against Alejandro Garnacho. Garnacho is settling in at Chelsea after a difficult start to his career in West London. He’s registered three goal contributions across his five starts in the Premier League and has won eight fouls across these matches (1.85 per 90). 

Maresca encourages his wingers to be involved in as many 1v1 duels as possible, so we should see Garnacho take on Bogle quite often here. Maresca also likes to rotate his wide players, with the Chelsea boss having the likes of Gittens, Neto and Estevao to call upon, should Garnacho not quite be at his best here. All three of these players can challenge Bogle just as much as Garnacho, offering a promising angle with Super Sub. 

When looking through the potential threats that Leeds could pose to Chelsea here, Joe Rodon stood out as a candidate for a shot on target at a generous price. Rodon is a centre back, so we’re looking for Leeds to find him from corners and other set piece situations, but he’s shown that he can be a real asset for Leeds in these scenarios.

Rodon has netted two goals across his 13 Premier League appearances this season, having eight shots across these matches (0.62 per 90), with four of these efforts finding the target (0.31 per 90). 

Leeds are averaging 4.83 corners per game at Elland Road this season, so they should have a few opportunities to find Rodon in the box here. Chelsea aren’t the biggest side in the Premier League, with Tosin being the only player in the backline to have a real aerial advantage.

Robert Sanchez is starting to show why Chelsea have stuck with him for so long. Many thought that Chelsea would need another goalkeeper at some point if they wanted to challenge for big trophies, with Sanchez appearing to be error ridden.

However, the Chelsea shot stopper has developed into one of the more reliable goalkeepers in the Premier League, with his performance against Arsenal last time out showing that he can be relied upon when his team are struggling. He was forced into making three saves in that game, and Caicedo being absent for this clash tells me that he may have to bail his side out on a few occasions.

Caicedo is Chelsea’s most important player and it’s very obvious when he doesn’t play. Chelsea struggled in the first half of their game against Burnley without Caicedo, with Sanchez forced into two saves on that occasion. Sanchez is averaging 1.91 saves per game in the Premier League, but this rises in Chelsea’s away matches (2.3 per game) and he won’t have his usual solid defensive unit in front of him. 

Chelsea’s struggles against low blocks are well documented, with the Blues suffering with that same issue at times this season - with clashes against Sunderland and Crystal Palace at Stamford Bridge coming to mind. Leeds may be a bit bolder in their approach at times as the home side, but should sit in a low block for long periods of the game.

Liam Delap can be Chelsea’s main weapon in trying to breakdown this low block, he’s a great finisher but his physical traits are more important to Chelsea here. The Blues haven’t had a proper number nine since Diego Costa - which was 10 years ago - and now have a striker that can appropriately occupy opposition centre backs and act as an aerial target in the box for crosses, something which Chelsea find themselves doing a lot when facing a low block.

Delap’s clash with Jaka Bijol is well worth keeping an eye on here. Both are very aggressive and should be familiar with each other by the time the contest is over. Delap netted his first goal for Chelsea against Barcelona last week, which will give him real confidence after a disrupted start to his Chelsea campaign, due to an early injury.

Chelsea are facing Leeds at a good time, with Daniel Farke’s side entering this game having lost their last four matches in the Premier League - conceding 2+ goals in each of these matches. By contrast, Chelsea come into this clash unbeaten since the 25th October, netting 2+ goals in five of their seven matches since.

Chelsea’s record on the road is currently stronger than their home record, with the Blues winning four of their six away matches, scoring 14 goals in the process (2.33 per game). No side has scored more goals on the road in the Premier League this season than Enzo Maresca’s side, offering real promise when looking to back them to strike twice here.

These sides faced off as recently as February last year, a match which saw Chelsea run out 3-2 winners in the FA Cup. Chelsea have struggled against low blocks at times this season, but the additions they’ve made to their frontline in the window gives them more options against these stubborn backlines - with Liam Delap proving particularly useful in offering a focal point up front. 

This is an unofficial rivalry which has been born out of various heated meetings between these sides stemming back from the 70s, and is carried on by the fans of both sections to this day. Chelsea are one of the most aggressive sides in the Premier League, as displayed by 29 cards they’ve picked up across their 13 Premier League matches this season (2.23 per game) - including four red cards, the latest of which was received by Moises Caicedo against Arsenal last time out.

Leeds aren’t quite at the same level of aggression in their card numbers (22 - 1.69 per game) but those can be forced to rise here when considering the rivalry element of this clash. Chelsea are strong when it comes to drawing cards and fouls from their opponents.

The Blues have drawn 2+ cards from their opponents in 11 of their 13 Premier League matches this term. This should see Leeds pick up a few more cards than usual with Chelsea also likely to dominate proceedings and frustrate the home side.

Enzo Fernandez has emerged as a real leader in the Chelsea side this season, and will take on an even more important role in midfield with Caicedo suspended for this clash, following his sending off against Arsenal at Stamford Bridge last time out.

This means we should see Andrey Santos come into the squad, allowing Fernandez to continue in his usual box to box role which he has been developing well in. Fernandez has won 14 fouls across his 12 Premier League appearances this term (1.19 per 90) and will be up against as many as four players in the Leeds midfield here.

Daniel Farke likes to pack the midfield, which results in Leeds committing 10.7 fouls per game in the Premier League this term. Furthermore, Fernandez’s main opponent is likely to be Ethan Ampadu, who is averaging 1.58 fouls committed per 90 in the league this season.