Football Tips

Both goals in that game for Forest came from the penalty spot, but it was nevertheless the result they needed - given that Porto had conceded just two goals all season prior to Thursday, it was never going to be a walk in the park.

Bournemouth have been much less organised at the back so far this season, which is understandable given the multitude of defensive changes they had to contend with since last season.

The Cherries have conceded 11 goals from eight games, with six of those coming in the last three games alone. In fact, they shipped 4.44 xG at the weekend at Selhurst Park, and were fortunate in the end to come away with a point. But their free-scoring nature has got them to where they are now, fourth in the Premier League, and goals are a target for the south coast side once more.

Last season, Bournemouth ranked second in the league for total yellow cards accumulated, and they have maintained their aggressive approach under Andoni Iraola this campaign, too. Only Brighton have accrued more yellows than the Cherries this term, who are averaging 2.5 cards per game in the Premier League.

Sean Dyche’s first game in charge of Nottingham Forest saw a total of four cards, split two apiece between them and the visitors. That means over 3.5 cards has landed in each of their last six games in all competitions.

Samuel Barrott is a strong referee appointment here to back cards. He has already dished out a total of 22 yellows and a red in just four Premier League matches this season, with over 3.5 cards landing in each of the games he has officiated. Even last season, his average of 47.4 booking points awarded per game was above the league average.

The trio of Porto midfielders were all forced into a foul at the City Ground midweek, as the Dragons racked up a total of 15 infringements.

Dealing with the Nottingham Forest midfield has proven to be a tough task for opponents - Elliot Anderson has drawn the third-most fouls of any player in the Premier League this season, averaging 3.0 fouls drawn per 90 in all competitions.

Douglas Luiz partnered with the Englishman in midfield midweek, making his second straight start since returning from injury. He was fouled twice against Porto, meaning he has won a total of nine free-kicks in just five starts since arriving in the summer.

His average of 2.52 fouls drawn per 90 is also impressive. Considering Marcus Tavernier will occupy the same zone of the field as these two, he looks well-priced to commit an infringement.

With six goals to his name from eight Premier League games, Antoine Semenyo has been in electric form to kick off the new campaign.

His average of 2.38 shots per 90 is the highest in the Bournemouth squad, and he has been Iraola’s primary attacking threat once again. The Ghanaian international ranks sixth out of all Premier League players for total shots accumulated, and he has hit the target with 50% of his efforts.

While Nottingham Forest are likely to be more pragmatic under Sean Dyche, Semenyo has still landed this bet in tough matchups this season, including two shots on target at Anfield against Liverpool, and one shot on target against both Crystal Palace and Tottenham.

Semenyo scored in both head-to-head encounters against Nottingham Forest last season, so he should be looking forward to this matchup at the Vitality Stadium.

It’s hard to back against Arsenal at the moment. I was really impressed by the Gunners in their 4-0 win over Atletico Madrid during the week. I’ve not seen many sides do that to Diego Simeone’s side, so it was a really impressive performance, which is reflected in the underlying numbers, which confirm Arsenal’s dominance in the encounter.

That victory stretches their current winning run to six wins across all competitions. Arsenal’s only defeat so far this season remains their 1-0 defeat against Liverpool at Anfield; aside from that result, only Manchester City have been able to take points off the Gunners.

Palace have gone from being unbeaten in their last 19 matches to losing two of their last three. They fell to a surprise 1-0 defeat at the hands of Larnaca in the Conference League during the week following a defeat against Everton and a draw against the Cherries.

I did think that Palace would struggle in the games they had following a European match, as their squad isn’t the deepest, and that should prove true here. Arsenal have more depth in the side, so they can rotate and rest players, which isn’t really a luxury that Palace have at the moment, and I think this will be a key difference in this game.

These two sides topped the rankings for goals from corners last season, so we can expect them to play a big role in this game. Arsenal have already scored eight goals from corners in the Premier League. For context, these goals represent 53% of the total goals that Arsenal have scored in the Premier League this season.

Arsenal have taken more corners than any other side in the Premier League this season (63 - 7.8 per game). This is 14 corners more than the next closest side, which is Newcastle with 49 corners so far this term. Palace’s away matches in the Premier League this season are producing 11.50 match corners per game, with it being particularly notable that Palace are conceding more corners than any other side on the road so far this season (7.75 per game).

The most recent meeting between these sides produced nine match corners, just one short of the line we require here. Given Arsenal’s dominance when it comes to corners in the Premier League this season, I can see plenty of these set-piece situations, which both sides have been so effective at over the last few seasons.

Saka has had a shot on target in four of his last five Premier League appearances. Arsenal are flying at the moment with five straight wins across all competitions, the most eye-catching being their 4-0 win over Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, where Saka found the target once from five shots.

Saka has had 11 shots across his six Premier League appearances this season (2.26 per 90) with four of these attempts finding the target (0.82 per 90). I’d expect this average to increase over the coming weeks as he gets a more consistent run in the side, with the early parts of his campaign disrupted by injury.

Saka averaged 1.19 shots on target per 90 across his 25 Premier League appearances last season. He came off the bench to have one shot on target in this fixture last season and can carry recent momentum into this encounter to find the target again.

Jurrien Timber has committed a foul in each of his last five Premier League appearances, with the Arsenal fullback being very aggressive against his opposite winger. Timber’s tally for the season sits at 10 fouls across his eight Premier League appearances (1.47 per 90).

Timber was forced into committing three fouls in Arsenal’s 4-0 win over Atletico Madrid last time out from eight duels in total. I’d expect similar numbers here from the Arsenal fullback as he lines up against Yeremy Pino, who has been bright in the early weeks of the campaign for the Eagles.

Pino has won eight fouls across his six Premier League appearances this term (1.93 per 90) and averaged 1.39 fouls won per 90 across his 34 appearances in LaLiga last term. Timber could also find himself outnumbered at times here, with Palace playing with wingbacks. Mitchell isn’t the most prolific when it comes to winning fouls, but just his presence could cause a real issue for Timber with the 24-year-old also having to keep an eye on Pino.

Each of Everton’s last five matches across all competitions has produced 2+ goals. They’ve only managed to win one of these games after a solid start to the campaign, but have remained difficult to beat at home.

Tottenham have seen 2+ goals in all four of their away games in the Premier League so far this term. Their four matches on the road have produced 12 goals (3.0 per game) with Frank’s side winning three and drawing one of these matches - the best away record of any side in the Premier League.

Both meetings between these sides last season produced 2+ goals with Everton coming away 3-2 winners at Goodison Park having lost 4-0 in North London earlier on in the campaign. I think Everton will be able to capitalise on the fatigue in the Tottenham squad following their European assignment while Tottenham can contribute to the goal tally through their strong record on the road.

Tottenham’s eight Premier League matches so far this term have produced 28 match cards, 17 for Tottenham and 11 for their opponents (3.5 per game). Tottenham were pretty strong when it came to drawing fouls last year, with only Aston Villa and Newcastle winning more fouls than the Lilywhites.

Everton have seen 35 match cards, 20 for Everton and 15 for their opponents, across their eight games in the Premier League this term (4.3 per game). They’ve seen an increase in the number of fouls they win this term, which is a metric largely driven by the foul-winning ability of their wide players in Grealish and Ndiaye, so it may be worth keeping an eye on Tottenham fullbacks and wingers for individual player cautions here.

The referee for this game is Craig Pawson, who has handed out an average of 3.64 match cards per game across his 273 appointments in the Premier League across his career. This has dropped to 2.00 cards per game in the early weeks of this season, but the early card records of both of these sides should facilitate an increase in this metric.

Palhinha has been a contributor in the final third for Tottenham so far this season with two goals and an assist across his eight appearances in the Premier League. Tottenham have had to rely on set pieces and more direct routes to goal as they’re without key creative players, such as Maddison and Kulusevski, due to injury.

Palhinha has had 10 shots across his eight Premier League appearances this season (1.49 per 90), with these shots producing an xG of 0.62, which he’s managed to exceed to score two goals. Only Richarlison (3) has scored more goals for Tottenham than Palhinha in the Premier League so far this term, underlining Tottenham’s lack of attacking options right now.

Palhinha had two shots in his most recent Premier League appearance against Aston Villa and can act as a threat again here, mainly from set pieces and second balls when Tottenham go direct, which has become more common under Thomas Frank.

Ndiaye has committed a foul in four of his last five Premier League appearances and is pretty generously priced to commit a foul here. Everton are more easy on the eye this year but Moyes still demands a high work rate from his attacking wide players which means we will see Ndiaye support O’Brien when Everton are without the ball.

Ndiaye has committed 11 fouls overall across his eight Premier League appearances this season (1.47 per 90). He committed 24 fouls across his 29 Premier League starts last season (0.89 per 90) so his numbers stay pretty strong when stretched over a larger sample size.

His main opponent here is likely to be Djed Spence who will relish the 1v1 battle with Ndiaye as the Tottenham fullback is very effective in these situations. He’s won three fouls so far this season (0.55 per 90), though we can expect Ndiaye to also track back and face up against Tottenham’s winger on that side who is likely to be Simons or Odobert.

This feels like one of the safest angles in football at the moment, with Haaland scoring in each of his last 12 appearances across all competitions for club and country. He’s had 34 shots across his eight Premier League matches this season (4.46 per 90), with 18 of these attempts finding the target (2.36 per 90).

These remarkable numbers have resulted in 11 Premier League goals for Haaland from an xG of 8.67. His clinical finishing ability is unmatched across Europe and he’s added a further four goals across three appearances in the Champions League. He’s had seven shots on target across these appearances (2.46 per 90), so he’s consistently finding the target at least twice in the majority of his games.

Villa have won four of their last five matches across all competitions, but have only managed to keep one clean sheet across these games, so you would expect Man City to test their backline with the 17 goals they’ve scored this term - 64% of which have been scored by Haaland.

Guessand netted his first goal for Aston Villa in their 2-1 defeat against Go Ahead Eagles during the week, and committed a foul from the six duels he contested in the game. The defensive role he’ll have here on the left hand side up against Jeremy Doku has caught my eye, with the duo likely to brush up against each other on multiple occasions.

Doku has won 12 fouls across his five Premier League starts this season (2.42 per 90), so he is a player that demands special provisions to stop him, with the most obvious way of doing that being to instruct a winger to support their fullback against Doku. Guessand has been committing fouls pretty consistently since he joined Villa, with at least one foul in four of his last five Premier League appearances.

Guessand has committed six fouls across his four starts overall (1.57 per 90) and should have extra instructions here to help Villa deal with the threat of Doku, who has been really bright in the early parts of the season.

I don’t trust either of these backlines at the moment. Villa have only kept one clean sheet across their last five matches which came in their 2-0 win over Feyenoord in the Europa League - you have to go back to Villa’s 0-0 draw with Everton on the road for their last clean sheet in the Premier League.

City have managed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last three matches, representing a slight improvement in the defensive ability of City, who struggled to keep sides out last season. These clean sheets have come against Everton, Brentford and Villarreal, who are all solid sides, but I’d expect Villa to carry more threat than those teams as the home side here.

Villa have scored five goals across their four home games this season, conceding the exact same amount, as they’ve avoided defeat in three of these matches. City’s four away games have produced 10 goals with BTTS landing in two of these games, as well as their away trip to Monaco in the Champions League.

BTTS landed in both meetings between these sides last season as the sides traded 2-1 victories. BTTS has landed in four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these sides too, so it is a fixture that regularly produces goals.

I’m warming to the idea of City as title challengers this season, with their recent run of form showing signs of when City were at their most dangerous. They’ve avoided defeat in each of their last nine matches across all competitions, with their only defeats this season still being those back-to-back losses against Tottenham and Brighton before the first international break.

City have avoided defeat in three of their four away matches this term, winning two of these games. The draw in this run was against Arsenal, which was always going to be a tough game, and the aforementioned defeat to Brighton looks to have been a catalyst for this current unbeaten run.

Villa fell to a bruising 2-1 defeat against Go Ahead Eagles during the week, which brought to an end their five game winning streak. They only kept two clean sheets across these games, so there has been a part of Villa which has remained vulnerable, despite their upturn in form.

The tough tackling and tenacious Gomes is a vital cog in the heart of midfield, a crucial element of the team when it comes to breaking up play and providing defensive solidity. Gomes is not someone that shies away from a challenge or cynical intervention when necessary.

He is currently averaging 2.4 fouls per game in the Premier League this season. These types of numbers have remained fairly consistent across his whole Wolves career, and further bolsters the logic here.

As previously covered, it’s a high stakes fixture, and there will probably be an added determination and aggression about Gomes’ game at the weekend, it also wouldn’t be a surprise to see him pick up a yellow card.

Gomes has also averaged around three tackles per game across his Wolves career, invariably someone that attempts a high number of tackles is likely to make fouls from time to time, it comes with the territory.

Ugochukwu has won six fouls across his four starts in the Premier League this season (1.46 per 90), with the former Chelsea player taking up an advanced role in recent weeks.

This has resulted in Ugochukwu scoring in each of his last two appearances for Burnley, also winning two fouls across these games, which both came last time out in Burnley’s 2-0 win over Leeds.

Ugochukwu will be up against a combative Wolves midfield here, with his more advanced role pitting him up against Joao Gomes. Gomes has committed 19 fouls across his eight Premier League appearances this season (2.52 per 90) and is likely to engage in multiple duels with Ugochukwu.

Wolves have been really frustrated in the early weeks of the season which has resulted in them committing the second most fouls in the league so far this term (13.5 per game).

Taking into account the importance of this game, this has the potential to be a very feisty match. Both sides will be doing everything in their ability to get a positive result, and that ‘win at all costs’ mentality may command a certain level of tenacity and gamesmanship on the pitch.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either side wasting time in the latter stages, particularly if they are winning. There were numerous occasions last season where Wolves let their emotions get the better of them in key games, and this resulted in disciplinary issues on the pitch.

There will be lots of emotion in the stands at the weekend, with the Wolves supporters understanding the significance of a Wolves win, and this may lead to a very tense and volatile atmosphere on the pitch. There is a positive referee booking for this pick too, with Peter Bankes averaging 4.5 yellow cards awarded per game over his six Premier League matches this term.

Burnley may have won a vital relegation clash against Leeds last week, but the underlying defensive metrics don’t cover them in glory. Despite winning the game 2-0, they still conceded a hefty 2.62xG.

Understandably, game state will have influenced those numbers, especially because they were sitting on a lead for large periods. Burnley have only played out one game this season where they conceded below 1.00 xG, and that was a home match against Sunderland which they won 2-0.

Wolves have admittedly struggled to find the net this campaign, but still managed to score in every home game barring against Man City on opening day. Even in defeat to Sunderland last week, they mustered 16 shots and had the better of the xG contest. Statistically speaking, Burnley currently sit bottom of the league for xGA, while Wolves are underperforming their xGF by 2.0 goals.

Strasbourg are regularly involved in high scoring encounters with Liam Rosenior opting for a front footed approach with his extremely young side in Ligue 1 this season.

Strasbourg have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception being their 1-1 draw in the Conference League during the week. That European encounter probably should have produced a few more goals seeing as Strasbourg registered an xG of 2.57 on their own which is the sort of tally they’re capable of achieving regularly with the quality of attacking talent in the side.

Lyon have seen over 2.5 goals in each of their last two games in Ligue 1 with their home matches producing eight goals in total so far (2.0 per game). Strasbourg should be able to force an increase in this goal tally with their front footed approach - they’ve seen 17 goals across their four away matches this term, including a 3-3 draw against PSG in their most recent assignment on the road.

Lazio’s defensive frailties remain a recurring theme this season, and the workload faced by Provedel only highlights this. The Italian has averaged 4.33 saves per game across all competitions and has made at least four in all but one of his outings so far, with recent returns of 6, 5, 5 and 5.

While Juventus’ attack has struggled to convert chances into goals, their creation has never been in doubt. They have forced opposition goalkeepers into three or more saves in six of their last seven matches. This fixture is often tight on goals but rarely short on efforts, and Provedel should once again be busy.

Barcelona had an average of 3.71 goals per game last season in the Spanish top flight, and they’ve managed to improve on that total this term. With 24 goals scored from just nine league matches, the Catalans boast the best attacking record in La Liga so far, looking sharp in the final third.

But, Real Madrid aren’t too far behind, having netted 20 goals. Los Blancos have a two-point lead over their rivals coming into this clash, with eight wins from their nine games this campaign. This is a battle between first and second, not only in terms of points, but also in terms of goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals has landed in every competitive head-to-head encounter between these sides over the last two seasons - in seven straight matches in all competitions. Those games have produced an average of 4.56 goals, rising to 4.8 goals when playing at the Bernabeu.

Hansi Flick had the upper hand against Real Madrid last season, as his side prevailed in all four head-to-head matchups in all competitions, but it was far from one-way traffic.

Real Madrid were able to find plenty of chances in those matches, averaging 5.5 shots on target per game, but were just less clinical than their rivals. There were a total of 52 corners across the four El Clásico matches last season, with an average of 13.0 corners per game. In fact, there were 12 corners when these sides last met, which was the lowest corner count of any of those games.

At the Bernabeu, there were 13 corners when these sides met in the league, and 14 corners in their Super Cup tussle. With both sides seeking three points from this game, there is every reason for it to be as open and expansive as it was last season, which lends itself to backing corners.

Xabi Alonso has gotten off to an ideal start as Real Madrid manager, as his side sit top of the Spanish top flight, while also boasting a flawless record in the Champions League.

Los Blancos have been dominant under their new manager, and Thibaut Courtois is averaging just 2.17 saves per game this season. However, he has seen a notable increase in more competitive matches. In fact, this bet has landed in all three European outings this season, as the Belgian made four saves against Juventus midweek.

While Courtois made just two saves against Atletico Madrid earlier in the campaign, it is worth noting that he conceded five goals, so there were plenty of opportunities for him. It was a similar story against Barcelona last season. He landed this bet in both away matches, but made three saves in a 5-2 loss at the Bernabeu.

Lamine Yamal will naturally steal the headlines, but Marcus Rashford has been in exceptional form this season since arriving in Barcelona. The former Man United man has five goals and four assists to his name after just 12 Barcelona appearances, and is well on track to have his best season since the 2022/23 campaign, when he scored 30 goals in all competitions.

He seems to be playing with a renewed motivation and sense of confidence, which has been reflected in his shot numbers. Rashford is averaging 4.15 shots per 90 this season, and has landed this bet in five of his last six appearances, including eight in his last game against Girona.

In the absence of Ferran Torres and Robert Lewandowski, Rashford led the line midweek in the Champions League midweek - he scored a brace to help his side to a 6-1 win.