Football Tips

• Arsenal averaging 4.20 shots on target per90.
  
  Arsenal conceded the fewest shots on target (17).
  
  Sunderland fewest shots on target in the league (27)

• Chelsea most shots on target in the league (52)
  
  Chelsea conceded 2nd fewest shots on target (29)
  
  Wolves in bottom six for shots on target (34).

The most recent meeting between these sides produced seven goals as Chelsea ran out 4-3 winners over Wolves in the EFL Cup. This has become a recent pattern in games involving these sides, with each of the last five head-to-head meetings seeing 3+ goals.

Chelsea have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions except their 1-0 win over Tottenham. They didn’t get much help from their opponents on that occasion when it came to raiding the goal count, with Tottenham registering their lowest xG ever on record in that clash. Wolves have seen 3+ goals in each of their last three matches, conceding three goals in each of those games.

Wolves have conceded more goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (22). Their scoring power hasn’t been the strongest this term, but they could get more chances than usual against a Chelsea side that will be fatigued from their midweek assignment against Qarabag.

The recent cup meeting between these sides produced nine match cards, including a red card, as Chelsea ran out 4-3 winners in a crazy EFL Cup tie. I’d expect a similar flurry of cards here, given the current situations involving these sides.

Wolves find themselves rock bottom of the Premier League, a position which usually comes with a fair degree of frustration, as we can see from the 18 yellow cards they’ve received this term (1.8 per game).

Wolves rank 2nd in the Premier League when it comes to fouls (13.4 per game), a ranking that has stayed consistent from last season, with only Bournemouth committing more fouls than Wolves last term.

Chelsea picked up more yellow cards than any other side in the Premier League last season (99). They currently rank 6th for cautions in the top-flight with 20 across their 10 matches (2.0 per game). The youthful makeup of this Chelsea side always lends itself to petulance, which has been perfectly showcased this season through the number of red cards that Chelsea have received.

Jorgen Strand Larsen hasn’t quite yet hit the heights from last season, which was a campaign that saw the forward net 14 goals across his 35 Premier League appearances, whilst averaging 1.87 shots per 90. A really impressive haul considering that it was Larsen’s first ever season in the Premier League.

Larsen has scored one goal in the Premier League so far this term, which came from the penalty spot against Burnley. In Larsen’s defence, Wolves have been the worst side in the Premier League this season, netting just seven goals across their 10 matches - the joint-lowest tally in the division.

Larsen has had 11 shots across his eight Premier League appearances this term (1.57 per 90) and can hurt Chelsea as he did last season, scoring from two shots in the clash at Molineux, and also having two efforts in Wolves’ defeat at Stamford Bridge. These sides faced off in the cup a few weeks ago; Larsen didn’t start on that occasion, but he came off the bench to have a shot.

Marc Cucurella has committed a foul in four of his last five Premier League appearances, with two of those appearances seeing him commit more than one foul. Cucurella is given quite an adventurous role in this Chelsea side; he often finds himself caught high up the pitch and has to make recovery fouls to protect the Chelsea backline.

Cucurella has committed 14 fouls across his 10 Premier League appearances this season (1.56 per 90). He didn’t start in the clash between the sides in the EFL Cup, but came off the bench to be shown a yellow card for dissent. Cucurella committed 37 fouls across his 36 Premier League appearances last season (1.11 per 90), so he is a player who commits fouls regularly, as shown by his consistency over a larger sample size.

Wolves are averaging 9.0 fouls won per game in the Premier League this season, which is a tally that should give Cucurella a chance when it comes to committing a foul here. Cucurella committed two fouls in this fixture last season and was shown a yellow card; he also committed a foul in Chelsea’s 3-1 win over Wolves at Stamford Bridge last term.

The Black Cats have been flying since their return to the top flight, boasting a record of five wins, three draws, and just two losses this campaign. Their points tally of 18 has them battling up in fourth in the Premier League standings, above the likes of Tottenham and Chelsea. However, they are yet to face a team as strong as Arsenal, and this will certainly be their toughest test.

Sunderland are unbeaten at the Stadium of Light after five Premier League games, but their fixtures have been against West Ham, Brentford, Aston Villa, Wolves, and Everton - all five of which currently sit in the bottom half of the standings.

Arsenal have a six-point gap over Man City in second, and their last loss came at Anfield back in August. Since then, the Gunners have gone 13 games undefeated, with just one draw coming against Man City.

Based on that, it could be a long evening for those Sunderland fans, and a harsh reality check could be on the cards. The Gunners racked up eight shots on target midweek, forcing five saves from Jakub Markovic. They repeated that feat against another newly-promoted side last weekend, as Martin Dubravka made five saves at Turf Moor.

Robin Roefs has been relatively busy for Sunderland this season, averaging 3.4 saves per game in the Premier League. He made six saves against Chelsea a couple of weeks back, helping the Black Cats secure three points at Stamford Bridge, while also making four saves against Man United at the start of October. Roefs has been a key figure for Sunderland in between the sticks, and will have to be on top form if Sunderland are to put up any resistance against the league leaders.

After playing the full 90 against Athletic Club in round one of the Champions League, Calafiori has not played a single minute in Europe since, as Mikel Arteta has opted to rotate his defensive options.

Calafiori does look to be the number one option at left back under Mikel Arteta this season, and he has been in impressive form. Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in each of the last four games he has started, but Calafiori has also been able to contribute at the other end of the field. The 23-year-old is averaging 1.98 shots per 90 in all competitions, landing this bet in ten out of eleven starts overall.

Calafiori is a threat from set-pieces, and his only goal this season came from a corner, while he does also pop up in good positions from open play. Additionally, six of his 18 efforts in the Premier League this season have come from outside the box.

Alongside Robin Roefs, Granit Xhaka, and Trai Hume, Noah Sadiki has started all ten Premier League games for Sunderland this season, operating in the heart of midfield. The 20-year-old has adapted seamlessly to life in the top flight since completing a move from RUSG over the summer, and has been a magnet for drawing fouls.

In fact, Sadiki ranks eleventh out of all Premier League players this season for total fouls won, with 16 infringements drawn so far. He does have a tendency to hit the deck under pressure, and buy soft free-kicks to alleviate the pressure on his side - that could be crucial against Arsenal, who are certain to dominate proceedings here, and have the lion's share of possession.

If Sadiki can invite contact to draw fouls, it will allow Sunderland to establish themselves on the ball and maintain some possession.