Football Tips

I think Denmark will prove too strong for what is a struggling Scotland side on Friday night, the hosts look a good bet to net a couple of goals here. Denmark have suffered just one defeat across their last 11 matches at home, with that solitary loss coming against star-studded Spain.

What’s more, the Red and Whites reigned supreme in each of the other 10 fixtures across that 11-game stretch, including a 1-0 win over Portugal in a Nations League quarter-final tie earlier this year.

As for Scotland, they have given the Tartan Army very little to cheer about since qualifying for Euro 2024, triumphing in just three of their 11 competitive fixtures since arriving at last summer’s showpiece.

Steve Clarke’s side were relegated to Nations League Group B earlier this year after suffering a humbling 3-0 defeat to Greece in the second leg of a play-off tie.

The apathy towards the national team intensified when Iceland swept Scotland aside 3-1 in a friendly fixture at Hampden back in June, and a continuation of the decline looks likely in the Danish capital.

I would be surprised if we don’t see a minimum of nine match corners on Friday night. Denmark posted some eye-catching team corner totals during their home matches in the Nations League, earning six, eight and seven across their contests with Switzerland, Serbia and Spain in the Danish capital, with two of those three matches breaking the over 8.5 corners barrier.

What’s more, there were a combined total of 13 corners when Denmark played host to Portugal in a Nations League quarter-final tie earlier this year. 

Despite being relegated from Nations League Group A, Scotland racked up some noteworthy corner totals, particularly away from home. The Scots managed to earn six corners away at Portugal and then five when taking on Poland in Warsaw, not to mention they managed to win five corners when facing Denmark at this venue during a qualifier for the 2022 World Cup.

With all that in mind, both teams look well placed to contribute to a flag kick count of nine or more on Friday night.

Scott McTominay will likely be Scotland’s danger man again in the Danish capital on Friday night. The 28-year-old is a hugely important figure for Scotland, and in true talismanic style, he is known to pop up with crucial goals for his country.

In fact, 11 of McTominay’s 12 strikes on the international stage have arrived across his previous 24 outings for Scotland, the most recent of which was against Greece away from home earlier this year. 

As such, McTominay looks well worthy of support to register a minimum of one shot on target here - something that he has managed in eight of his last 11 appearances for Scotland.

It’s also worth noting that McTominay has been Scotland’s designated penalty taker in recent times, and that only adds to the appeal of siding with him to hit the target at least once against a Denmark side that are not exactly renowned for being watertight at the back.

Having watched them in the flesh as my Stevenage side scored twice in the game’s last five minutes to snatch victory, I’m surprised that Port Vale are languishing in 23rd place in the table. They looked slick going forward and created chances at will; however, clearly their issues are in finding the back of the net, as their 6.84 expected goals total has so far resulted in just two goals.

They’ve won the xG battle in four of their six league matches, including being the only side to avoid defeat against league leaders Cardiff, and all the data suggests that their results will get better soon. 

Despite coming so close to promotion last season, Leyton Orient have struggled to get going early on and have particularly struggled on the road, being soundly beaten 3-0 by Huddersfield and 4-1 by Mansfield. More worrying was their tepid display last weekend against strugglers Northampton, who dominated the game and faced just six efforts at goal.

Richie Wellens has been typically abrupt in his criticism of the players; however, it might take more than a dressing down from the gaffer to turn their fortunes around, especially when you consider that he’s got 15 new signings in his squad to try and integrate.

Vale’s underlying numbers suggest a win is just around the corner, and with Orient in transition, this could be just the opportunity they need to get on the board.

Cambridge United have made a solid start to League Two life under Neil Harris, picking up 10 points from a possible 16 in their first six games.

They’ve been particularly strong at home, where they’re unbeaten and have picked up two wins and a draw. The U’s underlying numbers have been strong too, indicating they deserve one more point than they have actually gained, and showing by a distance the lowest xGA in the fourth tier.

They host an Oldham side who have scored just three goals so far, which doesn’t bode well coming up against such a strong defence. They are yet to record a victory following their promotion to the National League, but their xG figure of 8.5 seems to suggest that poor finishing has been the main cause of that. Manager Mickey Mellon has signed his striker son Michael to try and remedy that issue.

I like Cambridge to continue their strong start to the season at The Abbey.

Despite being written off every season, Harrogate continue to punch above their weight in League Two, usually managing to avoid any serious relegation threat, and they have got off to another pretty good start with eight points from six games. They’ve scored in all three league games and a cup game against League One opponents Lincoln City, but they also conceded in three of the four, with only Barrow failing to find the net.

Their opponents, Crawley, are starting to pick up a little after a miserable start, earning creditable draws against Chesterfield and MK Dons in recent weeks. Despite the Red Devils currently having six points less than Saturday’s hosts, the xG table suggests they should be two points above them, so this should be a close game.

Lower league pain in the backside Harry McKirdy opened his account with two goals at the weekend, back playing under Scott Lindsay, who was on the coaching staff at Swindon when McKirdy scored 22 goals in 2021/22.

Harrogate have the third-worst xGA in the division, and Crawley are heating up, so I can see goals on the cards here.

This time last season, Walsall were on their way to becoming runaway leaders of League Two before collapsing post-Christmas to finish in the play-off positions. They have started this season pretty well again, currently in 6th position and showing no signs of a hangover from last season.

Chesterfield came into the season as second favourites for the title behind MK Dons, and currently sit in second place, so all is going well for Paul Cook’s men. They have, however, failed to win two of their last three games, thumped 4-1 at Gillingham, and held 2-2 at home by Crawley.

These sides met four times last season, twice during the regular season and twice in the play-off semi-finals. Walsall won three of the four games, with the first of the four on home turf for Chesterfield ending in a draw.

Mat Sadler seems to have the recipe to nullify the patient approach of the Spireites, and having recently lost to a Gillingham side that adopt a similar sturdy approach, I fancy Walsall to be able to do the same again.

Declan Rice is a player who really should be reaching higher goal tallies for his club and country. 

He’s netted just five goals across his 66 caps and 16 goals for Arsenal across his 106 appearances for the Gunners, but he is a player capable of hitting multiple shots consistently and can act as an effective threat for England from deep in the absence of Jude Bellingham. 

Rice has had four shots across his three Premier League appearances so far this season (1.37 per 90). He averaged 1.52 shots per 90 in the Premier League last campaign with this metric rising slightly to 1.61 shots per 90 in the Champions League.

We can expect an increase in those averages here when considering the quality of opponents that Rice will be lining up against. England had 20 shots in their 1-0 win over Andorra when they faced them away from home recently, Rice didn’t start the game but Bellingham had three shots.

Andorra are going to sit in a low block for the majority of the game, employing the same tactics they used when England visited Andorra which were pretty effective in the first half. This should give Rice space on the edge of the area to get shots away.

Frustrated is a fitting word to describe England’s performance against Andorra in the last international break. England only scored one goal from their 20 shots in the game, and committed eight fouls with Burn being responsible for two of these.

Tuchel really likes Burn, I think it’s because of the threat he offers the side at set pieces with England constantly looking for the giant at every corner they have when he is in the side. 

I’m not sure how Burn would cope with some of the quicker and more mobile forwards in the international game, but he’s more than capable of marshalling Andorra’s frontline.

Burn will be in a direct duel with what should be a front two for Andorra, the away side will look to be quite direct into these frontmen which should result in Burn having to contest duels.

He will be England’s last line of defence, as they’ll have no issues in pushing high up the pitch against a side they are ranked 170 places higher than.

An angle which is always worth keeping an eye on in games where there is a bit of a mismatch in quality between two sides, is backing the striker of the side that will sit in a low block to commit a foul, or multiple fouls. 

Andorra committed 13 fouls in their 1-0 defeat against England when the sides faced off a few months ago, with the striker on that day in Ricard Fernandez committing two fouls, and winning three fouls. These situations develop as Andorra will send the ball long to try and relieve pressure, leaving the strikers to chase dead ends and commit fouls as they try and get their side some sort of foothold in the game. 

Cervos will have his work cut out for him here up against the 6’7 frame of Dan Burn who committed two fouls in England’s 1-0 victory over Andorra. Cervos is likely to play in a front two here with Andorra lining up in a 5-3-2 shape in their 3-0 defeat to Serbia last time out.

I expect this selection to be covered by England on their own, but seeing as 4+ England goals is only a smidge higher, I think it’s worth taking the Over 3.5 goals in the slight off chance that Andorra nick a goal from somewhere.

England must show a bit more under Thomas Tuchel in my opinion. It’s early days, but I've not been captured or convinced by the quality of England’s performances so far, with their away performance against Andorra a perfect example of the issues currently facing the Three Lions.

This should prompt England to press home any advantage that they get here and come away winners by a convincing scoreline. England saw 4+ goals last time out as they fell to a 3-1 defeat to Senegal at Wembley.