Football Tips

Joao Neves was suspended for the Super Cup final, so missed out against Spurs when these sides last met, but Desire Doue landed a shot on target from midfield in his absence, while Vitinha also registered one attempt. 

Neves has had an injury-hit campaign so far, but he recently made his return, and has been in exceptional form. He gave PSG a lifeline against Bayern Munich, as he came off the bench for a brief 25-minute cameo and got on the scoresheet. He almost made it a brace, too, going extremely close with another header. Neves followed that up with a goal against Lyon before the international break, where he scored a hat-trick for Portugal against Armenia. 

Interestingly, that was his second hat-trick of the season, with the other one coming against Toulouse back in August. The Portuguese international has been in excellent goal-scoring form this campaign, and will hope to maintain that against Spurs.

This bet is suggested on the basis of Dortmund dominating territory and playing their usual brand of enterprising attacking football.

Villarreal haven’t been a big conceder of shots on target in their away Champions League games, but they did concede seven at home to Manchester City and four at home to Juventus.

Dortmund averaged 6.7 shots on target at home in the Champions League last season, with five out of their seven home matches hitting this line. They average six shots on target per match at home this season in all competitions, including eight against Athletic Club in their only home Champions League match so far this season.

Dortmund will have to overcome a stubborn Villarreal defence, but they haven’t been as tight as they usually are in La Liga this season, only ranking seventh for expected goals against so far this campaign. We also know that Villarreal have to come out and play at some stage if they have real ambitions to progress here.

Legia Warsaw are without a win across their last five matches across all competitions, but have seen BTTS in all five of these fixtures. This includes their most recent assignment in the Conference League, as they lost 2-1 to Celje on the road. Legia Warsaw have seen BTTS in two of their three matches in the Conference League this term.

The home side's poor form of late makes Sparta Prague slight favourites for this clash, with Sparta tasting each of every result across their three matches so far. They’ve seen BTTS in one of these matches, which was their 4-1 win over Shamrock Rovers on Matchday 1. Sparta Prague enter this clash having seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, and can take the game to Legia Warsaw knowing that the home side are vulnerable at the moment.

I think Bayer Leverkusen look overpriced to get corners tonight at the Etihad. The German giants have won the corner count in two of their first four Champions League matches of the season, earning 7 and 5 flag kicks on those respective occasions. What’s more, Kasper Hjulmand’s side covered the proposed 4+ corner line during a recent Bundesliga away game at Bayern Munich, while they racked up 11 corner kicks in their subsequent fixture with Heidenheim.

As for Man City, they had to defend exactly 4 corners during their last Champions League assignment when hosting another German heavyweight in the shape of Borussia Dortmund.

It’s also worth noting that the likes of Manchester United, Bournemouth and Liverpool have all hit 4 corners or more on their respective visits to the Etihad this term. The likelihood of Bayer Leverkusen finding themselves in a position where they will have to chase the game at some point on Tuesday night only adds to the appeal of siding with this selection.

I'm taking 3+ as a lower line.

Betis should be regarded as serious competitors in the Europa League, having reached the Conference League final last season, and having avoided defeat in their four matches so far this term. Only one of these matches has seen BTTS (v Nottingham Forest), though Utrecht possess the firepower to breach the Betis backline for only the second time this season in the Europa League.

Betis have seen BTTS in each of their last two matches, with both games against Villarreal and Girona ending in 1-1 draws. Utrecht come into this clash having seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, including their most recent Europa League assignment, which ended in a 1-1 draw against Porto.

Utrecht have far more firepower than the one goal they’ve netted in the Europa League suggests, the Dutch side have netted 23 goals across their 13 matches in the Eredivisie this term (1.76 per game).

Grimsby have been one of the most entertaining sides in League Two and enter this clash having seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions. They have only failed to score against Chesterfield in this recent run, which was a game where they were reduced to 10 men and still managed to post a respectable xG of 1.12, from 13 shots.

They take on a Tranmere side that have avoided defeat in each of their last three matches in League Two, with BTTS landing in each of their last five matches across all competitions. Tranmere held MK Dons to a 2-2 draw last time out, which was the same scoreline that Grimsby earned on the road against Swindon at the weekend.

The most recent meeting between these sides took place back in March and saw BTTS as the sides played out a 1-1 draw. Grimsby were the key creators on that occasion, coming away with an xG of 1.62, though Tranmere can offer more of a threat here than they did on that occasion, with their recent strong record in front of goal.

Lausanne have been a team that I’ve regularly backed for high goal counts recently, with the Swiss Super League side seeing BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions. They take on a Lech Poznan side that have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches, including a 3-2 defeat to Rayo Vallecano in their most recent Conference League assignment.

Lech Poznan have seen 13 goals across their three matches in the Conference league so far, only managing to win one of these games. All three encounters against Rapid Wien, Lincoln Red Imps and Rayo Vallecano have seen BTTS, offering promise for this encounter against a Lausanne side who have been impressive in the Conference League so far, winning two of their three matches.

Lausanne have seen 17 goals across their seven away matches in the Swiss Super League this term (2.42 per game), only managing to win one of these fixtures. Four of these matches have seen BTTS, with the Swiss sides’ vulnerability at the back clear to see.

Club Brugge claimed an impressive point last time out as they held Barcelona to a 3-3 draw, a result which keeps their hopes of qualifying via the playoffs alive. Club Brugge scraped through in the Champions League last season, finishing 24th in the league phase, and a similar finish could be in the cards here.

Sporting have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions, including their most recent Champions League match against Juventus. Sporting have avoided defeat in three of their four Champions League matches this term, with BTTS landing in all four of these games.

Club Brugge can clearly offer an attacking threat in the Champions League, as displayed by the three goals they netted against Barcelona last time out. They’ve also seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions.

Wrexham have had a few 0-0 draws recently, but these have both been on the road against Ipswich and Portsmouth. Wrexham’s home matches tend to be very entertaining, with 24 goals across their eight matches this term (12 scored, 12 conceded - 3.0 per game).

Bristol City have maintained a steady level of performance on the road, with just one defeat from their seven trips. They’ve netted 11 goals across these matches, with their games seeing 19 goals in total (2.71 per game). They should be able to find the back of the net against Wrexham when considering their strong record on the road.

This should force the home side to come out and improve on their recent goal tallies. Three of Wrexham’s last five home matches in the Championship have seen BTTS, including a notable 3-2 win over league leaders Coventry, which shows that Wrexham can compete against the elite sides in the division when playing at home.

Frankfurt have seen BTTS in three of their four matches in the Champions League this season, with the exception of their 0-0 draw against Napoli away from home last time out. Their two home matches in the Champions League have produced 12 goals, with both fixtures ending in 5-1 defeats against Liverpool and Atletico Madrid.

This should be a more even contest, and one that Frankfurt will be targeting for a crucial win in their bid to try and finish in the playoff spots. Frankfurt’s five home games in the Bundesliga this season have produced 18 goals (3.6 per game), their most recent assignment in the build up to this game produced seven goals, as they ran out 4-3 winners over Koln.

Atalanta don’t see goals at both ends as regularly as Frankfurt, but can be dragged into a high scoring affair by their opponents here. Atalanta’s negative approach so far this season was largely down to the tactics of Ivan Juric, who has now been relieved from his role as head coach. This should see Atalanta become a more forward thinking side, and increase the number of goals they see in their games as a result.

Atalanta committed 17 fouls in their most recent Champions League assignment as they ran out 1-0 winners over Marseille. Their performance didn’t quite merit the three points, but their foul numbers really stood out - particularly against a side that haa won 10+ fouls in three of their four Champions League matches this term.

Brown is a versatile player that can operate as a fullback or a winger down the left hand side. Frankfurt usually play with a back three, so Brown can be expected to operate as a wingback here. Brown has drawn at least one foul in all four of his Champions League appearances this season, with two of these games seeing him win multiple fouls. Brown is likely to have a few 1v1 duels, as Atalanta also like to line up with wingbacks in a similar shape to Frankfurt.

Ederson has been heavily linked to some of the biggest clubs in Europe over recent transfer windows, and he’s matured into one of Atalanta’s most important players, with his foul won record standing out here. Ederson has won an impressive seven fouls across his three appearances in the Champions League this season (2.61 per 90). He’s also won 10 fouls across his eight appearances in Serie A (1.53 per 90).

Frankfurt don’t tend to commit many fouls (7.50 per game in Champions League), but a player with a foul won record as promising as Ederson can force this to rise here. Atalanta have won 10+ fouls in each of their last three Champions League matches, with 12+ won in their last two matches.

Frankfurt’s relentless approach in the final third always gives them a good chance of testing the keeper on a few occasions. They’ve drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in two of their four matches in the Champions League this season.

The two games in which Frankfurt didn’t test the keeper at least twice were matched against Liverpool and Atletico Madrid, sides that are far above Frankfurt when it comes to quality and experience in the Champions League. Atalanta aren’t quite at that level, and may struggle in this away game with a new manager at the helm.

Atalanta have Marco Carnesecchi between the sticks, who has proven to be a reliable shot stopper over recent seasons. He’s been forced into making 18 saves in the Champions League this term (4.50 per 90), maintaining a save percentage of 78.3% across these fixtures. He’s also been called into action 36 times across his 12 appearances in Serie A (3.00 per game).

Goals seem to stalk Frankfurt whenever they play, with the German side seeing 18 goals across their four matches in the Champions League so far (4.5 per game). Only Dortmund, Barcelona and PSG have seen more goals in their games in the Champions League this season.

The Bundesliga side will want to improve on their defensive record, having conceded 11 goals in the competition. Only three sides have conceded more goals than Frankfurt in the Champions League this term.

Atalanta’s four matches have been more conservative, with just eight goals across these games (2.0 per game). However, Atalanta have just parted ways with Ivan Juric, which was a bit of a ridiculous appointment in the first place, and should now go back to being a side that operate on the front foot, following negative performances under Juric.

Timber may not be the biggest player, but he really is a threat from Arsenal’s set pieces with his clever movement in the box. He’s had 14 shots across his 12 appearances in the Premier League this season (1.29 per 90), with this tally returning two goals.

Timber has matured into one of the most effective fullbacks in the league. He was always very solid in 1v1 duels, but Arteta has evolved his game to make him more of an asset in the final third, with Timber regularly linking up with Saka down that right-hand side.

Timber has had just the one effort in the Champions League so far, which is probably why he’s been priced a bit more generously than usual, with his line usually sitting around 1.44 for a shot. His record in the Premier League should eventually translate to the Champions League, with Timber being a significant shot threat from fullback this campaign domestically.

This selection is largely informed by Tah’s opponent here; his personal foul record isn’t that strong (0.21 fouls won per 90 in Bundesliga), but I’m willing to overlook those numbers, seeing as Tah is likely to line up against Mikel Merino here.

Merino has filled in well for Arsenal as a number nine and keeps his aggressive tendencies when leading the line. He’s committed 11 fouls across his five starts in the Premier League this season (1.97 per 90) and can offer the physical threat required to bring down Tah at least once on Wednesday evening. Merino’s foul average in the Champions League rises further to 2.57 fouls committed per 90.

Bayern won’t often face sides that will have no issue in pressing them high, as Arsenal will here. This is probably why Tah’s foul won record is so low in the Bundesliga; it rises slightly to 0.37 fouls won per 90 in the Champions League, with Tah notably being fouled when Bayern played Chelsea earlier on in the campaign.

Kane has already netted five goals across his four appearances in the Champions League this season, taking his overall tally for the campaign to 27 goals across 23 appearances.

He’s got a connection to Arsenal through his time at Tottenham, where he netted regularly against the Gunners. He has continued that record with Bayern, having scored against Arsenal when the sides met in the knockout stages of the 23/24 Champions League campaign.

Kane netted another goal in the Bundesliga at the weekend as Bayern dispatched Freiburg with ease, coming away 6-2 winners. He also netted twice for England over the international break, with both strikes coming against Serbia.

It’s hard to imagine Kane being starved of opportunities here when looking at Bayern’s overall attacking record so far this season (top scorers in the Champions League and Bundesliga). Arsenal can be stubborn at the back, but there is no better side to test this resolve than Bayern, who are the best attacking side in Europe on current form.

Arsenal look much more of a threat from open play this season, as well as maintaining their threat from corners and other set piece situations. Arsenal have drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in all four of their matches in the Champions League this term, with three of these games seeing the goalkeeper make four or more saves.

Manuel Neuer is still an elite shot stopper between the sticks for Bayern and has been called into action 13 times across his four games in the Champions League (3.25 per game). He's been forced into making 2+ saves in three of his four matches in the competition, with the exception being in Bayern’s 5-1 hammering of Pafos.

This is a meeting of the best defensive and offensive sides in Europe at the moment, in what should be a fascinating clash. Arsenal’s defensive numbers this season suggest that their opponents have to do something special to score against the Gunners this campaign, as Tottenham found out in their 4-1 defeat to Arsenal recently.

However, Bayern Munich have plenty of players that can come up with that moment to unsettle the Arsenal backline. No side has scored more goals than Bayern in the Champions League this season (14), with their perfect record in the league phase so far only matched by Arsenal and Inter Milan.

Bayern have already claimed two big scalps in the Champions League this season, beating Chelsea at home and claiming a 2-1 win over PSG at the Parc Des Princes. Bayern are one of the most complete sides in Europe and can show that in their attacking play here.

It’s also worth noting that Arsenal face Chelsea at the weekend, which may be something that plays on Arteta’s mind when he’s picking the side. Arsenal can afford to lose this game and still qualify comfortably in the top eight, a win at Stamford Bridge would put them nine points clear in the title race.

Harry Kane scored against Arsenal in the Champions League at the Emirates a few seasons ago, as Bayern claimed a 2-2 draw on their way to dumping out the Gunners. Arsenal have really strengthened since then, and will be eying up another big scalp here, having already beaten Atletico Madrid 4-0 at home.

Kane was fouled six times on that occasion facing up against Arsenal’s usual centre back pairing of Gabriel and Saliba. Gabriel is set to miss this clash through injury, so Kane’s most likely opponent is Pedro Hincapie, who put in a fine performance in the North London Derby last time out.

Kane will be a constant nuisance to Saliba and Hincapie, with the Bayern striker winning six fouls across his four appearances in the Champions League (1.74 per 90), as well as averaging 1.95 fouls won per 90 in the Bundesliga this term. Kane’s former allegiance to Tottenham may earn him a few fouls alone, as his foul won tally from his last visit to the Emirates would suggest.

Kane likes to drop into pockets, which is a trait that positively impacts his foul won numbers, as the England striker faces up against several different opponents across the course of a game. His main opponent in Hincapie averaged 0.88 fouls committed per 90 across his 32 appearances in the Bundesliga last season.

Arsenal have been very good at keeping their shot counts down recently, but Bayern will be able to test that as much as any side in Europe, with Vincent Kompany’s side looking lethal in the final third across the early months of the campaign.

Olise’s growth at Bayern has been brilliant to watch, with the Frenchman already registering 22 goal contributions across his 23 appearances for Bayern this campaign. He registered 35 goal contributions last season, so he has settled in seamlessly to his new environment in Germany.

Last season was Olise’s first ever campaign in the Champions League and he managed to register seven goal contributions, and average 3.57 shots per 90. He’s improved on this shot record in the Champions League so far this term, with Olise averaging 4.04 shots per 90 across his four appearances in the competition.

Olise comes into this game having registered five goal contributions against Freiburg, a game in which he had eight shots. Arsenal will offer more stubborn opposition than Freiburg, but Olise’s shot numbers can still see the former Palace winger get a few efforts away.

Copenhagen seem to have recovered from their rough patch, and have now claimed victory in three of their last four domestic clashes, including against rivals, Brøndby IF, who were top of the league at the time. Additionally, the home advantage has been a major factor for them in the Champions League; they drew with Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 at The Parken Stadium, and, including qualifiers, have averaged 2.0 points per game at home, compared to 1.0 when on the road.

By means of comparison, Kairat have gone winless across their last seven UCL matches, including qualifiers, scoring just two goals over that period. They rank last for xPts, having accumulated just 2.6xG and conceded a notable 11.5xGA.

Kairat’s Champions League matches have produced an average of 11.33 corners, with each of their last 10 exceeding the 8.5 threshold (including qualifiers). Excluding their very first round of qualifying, which was against NK Olimpija Ljubljana who sit in the bottom half of the Slovenian top flight, this average rises to a remarkable 12.5 per game.

This selection has also landed in 63% of Copenhagen’s domestic outings, including five of their most recent six. The line has also been a winner in each of their four UCL league-phase clashes, which have seen the sides combine for an average of 10 corners.

Chris Davies’ slight change of shape has allowed Tommy Doyle to become a key player for this Blues team in the centre of midfield. Not only has Doyle been really important in possession for Birmingham, but he has contributed massively off the ball as well, something he will have learned coming up through Man City’s academy teams and England youth programmes.

Doyle has started and played the vast majority of minutes in the last six matches for Blues. In that time he has committed at least one foul in five of those six matches. His seasonal average is 1.22 fouls per 90 minutes, but as we know, this is a derby match and the midfield battle for supremacy is going to be important and fierce.

One more thing to consider here is that West Brom’s Alex Mowatt is their most fouled player, at 1.51 fouls against per 90, and he is likely to be Doyle’s direct competition here.

Gray opened the shot barrage against Norwich in midweek, with a shot on target in the first minute. He has been consistent in his output in recent weeks, being a regular starter on the left of the attack, starting the last four matches.

In those four, he has taken 10 shots, three against Norwich, three against Middlesbrough, and two each against Millwall and Portsmouth, but he has also come off in all of those matches between 58 and 77 minutes, so this could be one for a Super Sub bet.

Having said that, Gray has covered the line chosen by himself on all of those occasions, and he is averaging 2.57 shots per 90 so far this season for Birmingham.

Blues have found the formula in recent weeks to be able to apply the pressure on teams not just through possession and territory, but by finding a way to get into dangerous positions and get shots away.

Their shot average this season is 13.8, with only 3.56 of those hitting the target. However, their last few matches have seen Birmingham hit 6, 5, 6, and 7 shots on target, so there has been a clear shift in their ability to get shots in that test the goalkeeper.

The introduction and fitness of Marvin Ducksch has helped this, as has the re-formatting of the midfield to include a couple of good progressive passers in Tommy Doyle and Marc Leonard. Jay Stansfield has also been excellent in the slightly more withdrawn role playing off Ducksch, so there is reason to believe that this line should be well in sight for Blues.

The teams are priced up evenly for this match, and I understand that pricing. I actually don’t think that West Brom are a bad team, or that Ryan Mason is a bad manager, but I am still concerned about West Brom’s structure from an attacking perspective, especially when they are coming up against statistically the best defence in the league from a chance concession point of view.

Birmingham are flying at the moment, although their home form is doing most of the heavy lifting for that, but they still arrive to the derby in plenty of rhythm and confidence. Home and away form is generally not as important when it comes to these geographical derby matches, and I am expecting Blues to be able to contain Baggies for the majority of the game.

There is no doubt that the draw is a huge runner in this match, and it is great to be able to have this option onside, but Birmingham look the more all-round cohesive outfit at the moment with answers in both boxes, whereas West Brom have succumbed to too many issues of late to carry the same confidence.

James is now pretty ensconced in this Leicester City team and is up to full fitness. He is playing in the #10 role, which is allowing him freedom to get forward, but he also has a big job to press and win the ball high in a Marti Cifuentes system.

James is a willing worker, and he gets himself involved in duels regularly; he is not afraid of committing a foul. Indeed, he has committed eight fouls in his last three matches, three last time out against Stoke, two against Norwich, and three against Middlesbrough.

This little streak leaves him with an average of 1.42 fouls committed per 90.

James’ direct opponents in Southampton’s deep midfield are likely to be Casper Jander and Flynn Downes. Leicester will be very wary of them controlling the game from there, so James will be detailed to apply the pressure. Both Jander and Downes draw fouls at around 1.3 fouls per 90.

I am really impressed with Jander. He is a piece of recruitment that hits a lot of the criteria required for a box-to-box midfielder in the modern game, and that includes offering something of a threat going forward.

He has scored in his last two Southampton matches, and they came from three shots, so not a huge volume, but the success of scoring twice in those matches makes me confident in saying that he will find an opportunity to have a go at goal here as well.

Jander has only recently broken into the team to start matches regularly, but his goal against Charlton was an action that I can see being repeated here, where he runs powerfully from deep. With Flynn Downes, or indeed, Cam Bragg, in the team to cover in central midfield, it gives Jander the freedom to perform these sorties without fear.

He has taken at least one shot in three of his last four starts, all of which have come under the current interim manager.

This is an interesting angle because it is mainly predicated on an unusual stat in Southampton’s home matches.

The Saints seem to be able to draw a high number of cards from their opponents when they come to St. Mary’s Stadium. There has been an average of five cards per match at St. Mary’s in the league this season, which is obviously really high, but the vast majority of those have come from the visitors.

Away teams at Southampton are averaging 3.43 yellow cards per match, and every single one of them have beaten this line so far this season, with Middlesbrough winning six yellows and Swansea winning four yellows on their visit to the South Coast.

Leicester average 2.06 yellow cards per match, which isn’t that high, but obviously covers this line. They have had six yellows in two of their last three matches, though.

We obviously know that Southampton are on a roll in terms of results. I suspect that confidence will be high now within the group, and this is a group with a number of high-volume shooters in it.

Adam Armstrong is the obvious leader of the pack from that front, but Finn Azaz is well known for his shot volume, Cameron Archer is similar, and Tom Fellows is a first-rate chance provider at this level as well.

Saints’ last two matches have seen them really rack up the number of shots on target they have been hitting. Against Charlton, they hit eight shots on target, and seven against Sheffield Wednesday. Indeed, Southampton have hit this line in seven of their last nine Championship matches, so in this form, I am expecting this price to be good value.

Leicester have averaged 4.75 shots on target against them in their Championship matches away from home, so that is very much within range of this line.

Cucurella is the player I fancy for a booking the most as he should be in for a long night on his side against Lamine Yamal and Jules Kounde.

Domestically, Yamal and Kounde are among the four most-fouled Barcelona players with 1.75 and 1.60 fouls drawn P/90 respectively. In Europe, Yamal goes up to a huge 2.86 fouls won P/90 and it's still a respectable 1.05 for Kounde.

Chelsea's Cucurella has committed a foul in each Champions League appearance so far, eight across three of them. Six came in one match alone against Qarabag last time out where he somehow didn't pick up a card.

No Barcelona player has a better shots output than Lamine Yamal. He averages 4.72 shots per 90 minutes across all competitions with 1.39 shots on target.

His shots come from an average of 19.9 yards out which puts him in and around the edge of the box and we all know his quality as well as ability from range.

In Barcelona' last Champions League match at Club Brugge, Yamal had five shots with three on target, one resulting in a goal. He had three shots from outside of the box in that game and one of them hit the target.

Villarreal have just one point to show for their efforts in the Champions League this season, which came in a 2-2 draw against Juventus. Other than that, they have struggled, losing all the other three matches to nil. The Yellow Submarine were particularly poor in their last outing, as they lost 1-0 against Cypriot minnows Pafos FC. 

Meanwhile, Dortmund are just two points off the automatic qualification spots, with two wins from their four Champions League matches this season. The Black and Yellow have been particularly impressive in the final third, with 13 goals - only PSG and Bayern have scored more. 

Serhou Guirassy has contributed to three of those, with one goal and two assists to his name. While he hasn’t been at his most prolific in recent weeks, chances have not been in short support for Guirassy, who is averaging 2.87 shots per 90 in all competitions this campaign.

Slavia Prague have struggled in the Champions League so far, with just two points after four matches. While they have had some difficult matchups, they do need to be more efficient in the final third, as the Czech Republic side have only scored twice so far. 

Lukas Provod played an instrumental role in both of those goals, providing the assist for Youssoupha Mbodji on both occasions. Provod also impressed against Bohemians at the weekend, as he popped up with a goal and assist to help his side win 3-1, tightening their grip at the top of the Czech top flight. 

With three goals and eight assists after 20 appearances in all competitions this season, no Slavia Prague player has contributed to more goals than Provod. The 29-year-old will hope to maintain his strong form against an Athletic Club side who have conceded 16 goals in their last seven away matches across all competitions.

Vangelis Pavlidis was on the scoresheet for Benfica last time out, as his side cruised to a 2-0 victory in the Portuguese Cup. The Greek striker has 14 goals to his name alongside three assists this season from just 22 appearances in all competitions. While he hasn’t quite been so effective in the Champions League so far, with just the one goal in his four matches, Pavlidis will have an excellent matchup on Tuesday night to improve those numbers.

Ajax sit in 36th position in the Champions League, with 14 goals conceded and just one goal scored - only Benfica are the other side yet to pick up a point. Victor Osimhen bagged himself a hat-trick against Ajax last time out in the competition, taking advantage of the Dutch sides’ leaky backline. In fact, the opposition striker has scored against Ajax in 10 straight matches across all competitions.

Nmecha has been playing in a more withdrawn double pivot role alongside Jobe Bellingham more recently, and this has only added the probability of Nmecha getting involved in physical duels and fouls.

He is averaging 1.32 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, but this increases to 1.74 per 90 when changing the sample size to the last 10 matches. This illustrates the difference in Nmecha’s game recently, and this comes by dint of him playing more regularly in central midfield.

Nmecha committed five fouls in Dortmund’s last game against Stuttgart, but yet he somehow avoided a yellow card for this. Indeed, Nmecha is someone who seems to be able to give away fouls but without being given regular yellow cards, having avoiding any in that 10 game period. This actually helps in foul bets, as he won’t be afraid of committing fouls, knowing that he often doesn’t get carded for them.

Central defenders are always the biggest prices in these markets, but Nico Schlotterbeck’s recent matches have seen a massive increase in the regularity of him being fouled, that clearly hasn’t been accounted for. Schlotterbeck is averaging 1.14 fouls against him per 90 over Dortmund’s last 30 fixtures, which makes this a good bet already.

However, it is the change in the last few matches which makes this a standout bet at the prices. Schlotterbeck has been fouled in the last four matches in a row, and at least twice in each of the last three matches. He was fouled three times last time out against Stuttgart, so it seems as though there is something in Schlotterbeck’s game that has changed recently, which is bringing him more physical contact.

Villarreal play two centre forwards, so this, to me, increases the likelihood of wide central defenders getting involved in physical duels, which, again, increases the chances of fouls being part of the game.

This bet is suggested on the basis of Dortmund dominating territory and playing their usual brand of enterprising attacking football. Villarreal haven’t been big conceders of shots on target in their away Champions League games, but they did concede seven at home to Man City, and four at home to Juventus.

Dortmund averaged 6.7 shots on target at home in the Champions League last season, with five out of their seven home matches hitting this line. They average six shots on target per match at home this season in all competitions, including eight against Athletic Club in their only home Champions League match so far this season.

Dortmund will have to overcome a stubborn Villarreal defence, but they haven’t been as tight as they usually are in La Liga this season, only ranking seventh for expected goals against. We also know that Villarreal have to come out and play at some stage if they have real ambitions to progress here.

The match market is an interesting one, but there is enough evidence that I have seen in my research to suggest that we should be siding with the Germans here.

Dortmund are actually highly experienced Champions League operators now. As such, they will probably understand the value of making the top eight in this league phase, therefore avoiding that tricky play-off round. They are in a good position in which to do this, but need a win here.

There has only been one home game in the Champions League this term so far for Dortmund, but they won it convincingly 4-1 against Athletic Club, a team from the same league as Villarreal. Going back into last season, Dortmund’s home record was four wins, two draws, one loss, with the loss to Barcelona in the league phase. They beat Barca in the knockout stages at home, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sturm Graz, and Celtic. Their xG differential at home is +1.2 xG in the Champions League over the last two seasons, which is a big performance differential.

Villarreal have lost both of their away Champions League matches so far, both 0-1, to Pafos and Tottenham. The bad news for Villarreal is that this will be a much tougher task than either of those matches.

Despite recent turbulence, I expect Monaco to see this game out and take all three points home. Sébastien Pocognoli’s men have impressed in the Champions League, securing draws against Man City and Tottenham, before beating Bodø/Glimt. 

They were particularly unfortunate not to get the win against Spurs, with Monaco firing off 23 shots, including eight on target, and the xG scoreline reading 2.45 - 0.88 in their favour.

Monaco’s firepower might be a bit too much for Pafos to handle, and from what we’ve seen, the Cypriot’s are highly unlikely to hit back. Pafos have scored only two goals in the competition so far - a long-range wonder-goal, and a set-piece.

This is a really important game for Villarreal in the context of the continuation of their Champions League campaign. Villarreal currently sit third in LaLiga, only sitting behind Real Madrid and Barcelona in the Spanish top flight, but these performances haven’t quite translated to their European games yet. Villarreal have lost three of their four matches in the Champions League, making this a must not lose at the very least.

Dortmund have seen Over 1.5 Goals, and BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions. Their most recent game was a 3-3 draw against Stuttgart, which shows Dortmund can both score and concede for fun. Over 1.5 Goals has also landed in all four of their Champions League matches this season.

Villarreal come into this game having won four of their last five matches across all competitions, most recently running out 2-1 winners over Mallorca. Over 1.5 Goals has landed in nine of their last ten games in all competitions.

As always this season, it is pretty tricky to get the right handle on Sheffield Wednesday, but the no-show in the Sheffield derby raised a lot of red flags for me. There is a set of evidence behind Wednesday which demonstrates that they are not a good Championship team.

They have not won in 10 Championship matches and have only won once all season in the league, they have not scored twice in a match for eight matches, scoring only four times in that period. Their xG ratio, the difference between expected goals for and against, is drifting deeper into the negative.

I felt that once the Chanisiri regime was brought to an end and there was a real groundswell of support for the club from the fans, that this might kickstart the team to pick up some more positive results. However, it is very difficult to get away from a lack of quality on the pitch, and in the squad. The lack of depth is becoming more of an issue, especially with injuries and suspensions kicking in, there are some players who have played too much and this will impact them physically.

Are Millwall capable of taking advantage? Obviously, I think they are. There have been surprisingly bad single results in this season, losing 0-4 against Birmingham and Coventry, and 0-3 against Middlesbrough, but despite this, their expected goals ratio for the season is pretty level, and they are four unbeaten at home, including three wins.

There is more than enough competence in the Millwall team and coaching staff to establish a game plan that will take advantage of the Sheffield Wednesday issues. I am confident that they will win the xG battle, and then it is a case of making that advantage work.

I am really surprised to be able to tip this line up for this match. There is a lot of data to support over 1.5 goals here, but there is also a good feel to this matchup in terms of how the teams will compete.

Blackburn are really bringing everything together at the moment. From a position of being in the relegation zone with a bunch of new recruits to the club and to the league, and fans on the verge of open revolt, to four wins in five league matches, and, moreover, looking really organised and effective in all areas of the pitch whilst doing so.

Looking into Blackburn’s matches, other than the fact that they are winning, they also do concede goals. Indeed, nine of their last 10 matches have beaten this line, so there is a lot of form there.

From a QPR perspective, there isn’t quite as much of a compelling data narrative, but their 3-2 win on Saturday demonstrated nicely that their young, dynamic set of forwards can play and score when their opponents allow them some space. Blackburn may not do that too much, but the onus will be on them as the home team in form to attack their opponents.

QPR average 1.2xG per match this season, conceding 1.36xG as well. Blackburn are running at 1.41xG per match, conceding 1.23xG, so there are lots of indicators for goals in any direction here.

The evidence suggests that we can expect plenty of goals, given the high volumes we’ve seen in both sides' matches.

Seven out of Sporting’s 11 league games have produced at least three goals, with Sporting alone maintaining a rate just shy of 2.5 per game. Their Champions League outings have been similarly entertaining, with this selection coming home on three out of four occasions.

Club Brugge have been even more reliable in the market. Each of their four league-phase matches has seen this line land, extending the streak to seven, when including matches during the qualification stage. Those seven matches have produced 33 goals in total - a remarkable average of over 4.7 per game.

Sporting Lisbon enter this clash in fine form, having recorded victories in seven of their last eight matches across all competitions, with only Juventus holding them to a draw over that period. Domestically, they’ve come out on top in nine of their 11 games since the start of the season, and it’s clear to see why the bookies favour them on this occasion.

Not only have their opponents struggled to impose themselves in the Champions League this season, but they’ve shown a massive drop-off when away from home. Club Brugge suffered both of their UCL losses on the road, and in the Belgian Pro League, their PPG drops to just 1.72, from a near-perfect 2.71 at home.

Mahmoud Dahoud had a turbulent previous campaign plagued by injuries, but he looks to have put those concerns behind him, and he bagged his first goal of the season last time out. With Hugo Larsson injured, and Ellyes Shkiri still not at 100% since returning from a spell on the sidelines, Dahoud was entrusted to start in midfield against Koln, and he repaid that trust with a goal. 

Prior to that, the 29-year-old had four shots against Mainz just before the international break as the Eagles secured a 1-0 victory. All four of those efforts came from outside the box, highlighting how Dahoud does fancy his chances from distance, which makes this price stand out. 

A 3-1 loss on his debut was not how Raffaele Palladino would’ve liked his tenure as Atalanta boss to start - that result made it one win in nine for Atalanta, who come into this midweek clash in a turgid run of form.

After meeting in the UEFA Super Cup final to start the season, PSG and Tottenham will lock horns again, this time in the Champions League. PSG prevailed in the last head-to-head meeting, courtesy of a late comeback. Spurs were 2-0 up going into the final 10 minutes, before Kang-In Lee pulled one back, and Goncalo Ramos equalised in the 94th minute. PSG went on to win the tie on penalties, so Tottenham will be hoping for a bit of retribution in Paris. 

Cristian Romero was on the scoresheet in that game, as the centre back accounted for two of Spurs’ 13 attempts at goal. Micky van de Ven also found the back of the net, highlighting how Tottenham were able to cause issues from set pieces. 

That has been a trend all season - under Thomas Frank, the Lilywhites have posed a serious danger from dead ball scenarios, and Romero will hope to capitalise once more. 

With two draws and two losses from their four Champions League outings so far, Olympiacos currently sit outside of the qualification spots, so they will be desperate to pick up points on Wednesday night. Although a tough matchup against Real Madrid beckons, the Greek side will take some consolation from the fact they have performed better on home turf - both draws have come at the Georgios Karaiksakis Stadium in Athens. 

Olympiacos have had two tough away outings against Arsenal and Barcelona, but Podence landed this selection in both of those games. He forced a save from David Raya at the Emirates, while he also managed a shot on target against Barcelona after just one minute. 

The former Wolves man has proven he can threaten the big sides, and will have to be on top form if Olympiacos are to cause this Real Madrid side problems. 

Micky van de Ven went from hero to zero in the Super Cup final, as he opened the scoring in the first half, before missing a penalty in the shoot-out. His defensive partner Cristian Romero was also on the scoresheet in regular time, while Kevin Danso went close from a header, highlighting how Tottenham were able to find success from set piece situations against PSG. 

Thomas Frank is likely to go with a similar setup to that game, given how it almost paid off. The Lilywhites will once again have to be efficient from dead ball situations, with chances from open play likely to be limited at the Parc des Princes. 

Van de Ven has been the primary target when Spurs can get the ball into the box, and he has registered a shot in six of his last 10 starts in all competitions. Of those eight efforts, five have hit the target and four have gone in. 

Mbappe has simply been operating on a different level this season - he already has 18 goals and two assists to his name after just 17 domestic appearances in all competitions. Even for his national side, Mbappe has racked up five goals and three assists, despite only starting four times for France this season. 

Olympiacos shipped six goals when they faced Barcelona in October, and Mbappe will be licking his lips at the prospect of facing the Greek side. Mbappe tends to be ruthless against the lesser teams, which doesn’t bode well for Olympiacos.

Julian Alvarez was on target against Union St Gilloise in his last Champions League outing, as he scored the first goal of the game to help his side win 3-1 at the Metropolitano. Alvarez managed three shots in that game, all of which hit the target, while he also missed a big chance, highlighting how he really could have scored more. The Argentine international has been popping up in the right positions this season, and he already has nine goals and four assists to his name after just 16 appearances in all competitions. 

11 of those 13 goal involvements have come on home turf, underlining how Alvarez plays with an increased confidence in front of a home support. While this matchup against Inter Milan promises to be a tough one, Alvarez bagged a brace against Real Madrid back in September, proving that he can contribute against the top sides.

Despite losing Can Uzun to a muscle injury at the start of November, Frankfurt have fared well, and come into this clash following back-to-back wins. Fares Chaibi played a pivotal role against Koln at the weekend, as he provided an assist for Arthur Theate to head in from a corner. Chaibi has slotted into a more advanced midfield position in recent weeks, so has seen an increase in involvement in the final third. 

Atalanta have struggled recently, winning just one of their last nine matches. Just before the international break, Ivan Juric was sacked, but Raffaele Palladino’s tenure didn’t get off to the best start. His side were beaten 3-1 by Napoli, making it back-to-back losses for Atalanta, during which they conceded six goals. 

With an increased attacking responsibility, this price for Chaibi to register a goal involvement is appealing.

There’s no wonder Atletico are scoring plenty of goals on home soil this season, they are averaging 7.44 shots on target per game across La Liga and the Champions League. Despite their conversion rate from those shots being very good in terms of goals scored, there’s plenty of logical reasoning to think Yann Sommer will be forced into a couple of saves on Wednesday evening. Atletico are seeing around 50% of their attempted shots hit the target, and this implies they are getting into very promising shooting positions in the final third. 

Inter Milan have conceded 22 shots on target in away matches this campaign, working out at an average of 3.14 per game. In recent away matches against very attacking minded opposition such as Roma and Union St Gilloise, Sommer was forced into five saves against Roma, and six saves against Union St Gilloise. Accounting for Atletico’s recent form, there’s reason to believe they will start the game quickly and look to be aggressive. 

With 14 goals and three assists in 19 North London derby appearances, Harry Kane has been the most prolific player in the historic rivalry, and will be looking forward to making a return to East London. 

The Englishman could not come into this clash in better form - he has 24 goals and three assists under his belt this season despite only making 18 appearances in all competitions. Even for his national team, Kane has five goals in five games, highlighting just how effective he has been in the final third. 

Kane’s form is one of the main reasons why Bayern are still unbeaten in all competitions - the Bavarians boast the stellar record of 17 wins and one draw this season. Kane has been the man for the big occasion so far, scoring a brace against Chelsea on matchday one of the Champions League, while also finding the back of the net in Der Klassiker (against Dortmund in the league). 

Lautaro Martinez has been extremely trigger happy this season, across Serie A he’s averaging 3.64 shots per 90. In the Champions League this number is a whopping 7.37 shots per 90. Admittedly, this has only come from 173 minutes of football, against mostly inferior opposition. Given the magnitude of the fixture against a similar level rival, you would expect Inter Milan’s talisman to be handed a start here. 

Inter Milan have been racking up big shot numbers this season, maintaining good averages in games against more difficult opposition. Across tricky Serie A away fixtures against AC Milan, Juventus, Roma, and Napoli, they have averaged 16.25 shots in those games. There’s clearly a tendency to be positive and look to be progressive in their approach. While Atletico are never going to be a side that affords the opposition lots of shooting opportunities, Inter Milan are very proficient at providing ammunition for Martinez, exemplified by his shot and goal numbers.

Lorenzo Lucca has had his minutes limited this season since arriving from Udinese over the summer, but should get a chance to start midweek with Rasmus Hojlund an injury doubt. The Italian international has started just five matches this season, and has landed this bet in three of those - in one of the misses, he received a straight red card against PSV. 

Lucca is an incredibly physical player and is averaging 3.4 fouls per 90 this season despite his lack of game time, a notable increase from an average of 2.41 fouls per 90 in the previous campaign for Udinese. 

He draws an excellent matchup to improve on his foul numbers midweek, as Qarabag have drawn the third-most infringements of any team in the Champions League this season. In fact, they were fouled 17 times in their last European match against Chelsea, with centre back Kevin Medina drawing five of those infringements.

With Conor Bradley and Jeremie Frimpong out, Dominik Szoboszlai had to deputise once again at right back last weekend, but the majority of Nottingham Forest attacks were concentrated down the opposite flank, which has been a trend all season.

The Liverpool left-hand side has been a real Achilles heel, as Milos Kerkez has looked incredibly rash at times, while Andy Robertson has also struggled. Dennis Man should occupy the right wing for PSV on Wednesday night, and he should be looking forward to this matchup.

His best performances have come in the Champions League this season, as he scored a brace against Napoli from four shots, while also landing this selection against Olympiacos in the previous round. Despite rarely finishing the full 90, Man has registered at least two shots in six of his last eight matches overall, averaging 1.89 shots per 90 in all competitions this season.

Vitinha played an instrumental role for Luis Enrique last season, pulling the strings in midfield. The Portuguese maestro contributed seven goals and three assists across all competitions. This season, he has hit a new level, and has already matched his goals and assists combined tally of the previous campaign - Vitinha has two goals and eight assists from just 17 appearances across all competitions. 

One of those goal involvements came against Spurs in the Super Cup, as Vitinha provided the assist for Kang In-Lee, which started the comeback. The 25-year-old has landed this bet in each of his last three away starts, including two assists against Lyon last time out. 

Vitinha also managed an assist against Brest after getting on the scoresheet against Leverkusen in the Champions League. In that 7-2 victory, Vitinha completed 126 of his 128 passes, while he also provided an assist for Nuno Mendes. 

PSV's striker Til has drawn a foul in five of his last six matches, highlighting how he can be quite a tricky customer to deal with, he will be up against van Dijk here. PSV rank third-bottom in the Champions League for total fouls drawn this season, but those infringements tend to be concentrated on their attacking players. Of their 32 fouls drawn, Ismael Saibiri has accounted for eight of those infringements, while Dennis Man has also been fouled a further four times.

This price for Van Dijk to commit a foul appeals, given how he has seen a noticeable uptick in recent weeks. The centre back has landed this selection in each of his last five matches, including three fouls against Real Madrid in his last European outing. The Dutchman has been on the receiving end of plenty of criticism recently, and seems to be airing out that frustration on the pitch.

The main problem for Liverpool at the moment, is that whenever their opponents progress into the final third, it seems likely that they will be able to create a good shooting chance. The Reds are looking incredibly vulnerable at the back, and have lost eight of their last 11 matches in all competitions. In that stretch dating back to September, Arne Slot’s men have shipped 20 goals, keeping just two clean sheets.

Meanwhile, PSV come into this clash on an excellent run of form, and will hope to capitalise. The Dutch side currently sit top of the Eredivisie, and Guus Til has been a standout performer. With nine league goals to his name, Til has been the most prolific player for PSV in the league this season, while he also ranks 2nd for total goals scored out of all players in the Dutch top-flight.

Liverpool had plenty of shooting opportunities against Nottingham Forest on Saturday, with the pick of the bunch falling to Alexis Mac Allister. The Argentina international racked up a total of five shots, with two of those hitting the target, while he also missed a big chance. MacAllister does tend to push forward into advanced areas, and four of those efforts came from within the box.

Mac Allister was the difference maker in Liverpool’s last European match, as he scored the only goal of the game against Real Madrid in the Champions League. Once again, he found himself in some excellent positions, and nodded in the decisive goal from a set piece. Mac Allister accumulated a total of four shots in that game, this time with three coming from outside the box.

The 26-year-old has landed this selection in seven of his eight starts at Anfield this season, and has amassed nine attempts in his last two home outings.

Ryan Gravenberch had an average of 1.26 fouls per 90 in all competitions for Liverpool last season, rising to 1.37 fouls per 90 when playing at Anfield. He played with a lot more determination in front of a home crowd, landing this bet in 20 of his 26 starts in total.

Those numbers have decreased slightly so far this season, to 0.97 fouls per 90, despite his role largely remaining the same in the heart of midfield for Liverpool. There is certainly room for improvement for the Dutchman in that regard, but he has landed this selection in each of his last four straight matches, including two fouls and a booking against Nottingham Forest at the weekend.

He will match up against Ismael Saibiri and Dennis Man - the pair have combined for 2.9 fouls drawn per 90 in all competitions this season.

The main challenge for Liverpool here will be keeping this PSV side at bay, which doesn’t seem likely given how recent games have gone. The Reds have leaked chances at the back, and Allison’s four saves on Saturday afternoon prevented the scoreline from becoming even more out of hand (3-0 defeat). After missing the last few weeks through injury, it was not the start the Brazilian would’ve hoped for.

In the absence of Allison, Giorgi Mamardashvili has been kept busy in between the sticks. Since the start of October, the Georgia international started seven matches for Liverpool, and landed this selection in six of those matches.

PSV are unbeaten in 11 straight matches across all competitions, which includes three Champions League fixtures. In that run, they pulled off an impressive 6-2 victory over Napoli, so have every reason to be confident heading to Anfield.

PSG were on a flawless run in the Champions League before that game against Bayern Munich, which tarnished their record. However, it was always going to be a real test, given that the Bavarians had won every single game this season leading up to that clash. 

However, the Parisians would have been left disappointed with the result - Luis Diaz received a first half red card, which allowed the hosts to dominate the second period, but they couldn't find the decisive goal and eventually lost 2-1. 

Luis Diaz stole the headlines with his brace before being sent off, but Manuel Neuer was the unsung hero with eight saves. PSG racked up nine shots on target overall, meaning they have landed this selection in seven consecutive matches on home turf leading up to this clash, during which they are averaging 9.14 shots on target per game. 

It’s really hard to ignore Atletico’s results at present, independent of two very tough away defeats against Arsenal and Liverpool, the only match they lost was on the opening day of the season. Atletico have remained unbeaten at home this season, a run going back to the 2nd April, 13 competitive matches ago. 

The hosts have been extremely free-scoring at the Metropolitano Stadium, scoring in every home match this season, and scoring 2+ goals in seven out of those nine matches. If the same trend continues, it would require three Inter goals for this bet to lose.

There’s a trend developing of Inter losing to similarly matched and high-quality opposition this season. After losing at the weekend to their Milan rivals, they’ve also suffered defeats against title rivals in the shape of Napoli and Juventus. A 2-1 home defeat to Udinese in August was their other defeat. It’s been a great campaign for them aside from those losses, but Atletico may prove to be their toughest test yet, especially at a ground which has always been a fortress, past and present. 

Perhaps not a fixture you would readily perceive as being a high-scoring contest with lots of chances. However, this season’s data suggests both teams to score has a credible chance of happening.

Atletico Madrid have now scored a goal in every single game they’ve played this season, barring the Arsenal game at the Emirates. This isn’t a huge surprise given Arsenal probably have the best defence in Europe right now. This is compounded further by the fact that Inter Milan have scored a goal in every single match they’ve played this season, aside from their game against AC Milan at the weekend.

Despite prolific home form, Atleti are still conceding some goals, and Inter will fancy their chances of taking advantage.

There were four goals in the Super Cup meeting between these sides before the start of the regular season, with PSG going on to lift the trophy on penalties after battling from two goals down to draw the game 2-2. 

Tottenham saw five goals last time out as they collapsed to a 4-1 defeat at the hands of their North London rivals, Arsenal. This marks the third game in a row where Tottenham have seen 3+ goals, with the pressure constantly increasing on Thomas Frank. 

Two of their four games in the Champions League this season have produced 3+ goals, and they’ll do well to withstand the attacking prowess of PSG here. 

PSG have netted 14 goals across their four Champions League matches so far (3.5 per game). All four of PSG’s games in the Champions League this season have seen 3+ goals, including clashes against Barcelona and Bayern Munich.

The Champions League can act as a welcome break for Liverpool from the terrible domestic form, which has seen them lose six of their last seven matches in the Premier League. Arne Slot is under a bit of pressure, but should be able to relieve this with another convincing performance in the Champions League.

Liverpool have won three of their four matches in the Champions League this season, netting nine goals across those matches. Two of their four matches have seen 3+ goals, with Liverpool seeing 3+ goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions. 

PSV have also seen 3+ goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions. They’ve seen 16 goals across their four Champions League matches (4.0 per game) with 3+ goals landing in two of those games - BTTS has landed in all four of PSV’s games in the Champions League this season.

Real Madrid have hit a small stumbling block in recent weeks, with no wins from their last three matches against Liverpool, Rayo Vallecano and Elche. This is a good game for them to find their feet again, with Olympiacos struggling to find their feet in the Champions League, having conceded nine goals across their four matches so far.

Real Madrid have seen 3+ goals in two of their four matches in the Champions League this season. With the constant pressure that is on Xabi Alonso in the dugout, this game will feel like a must-win, with murmurings appearing recently that some key players are starting to question the approach of the former Leverkusen boss.

Olympiacos have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions. The exception was a 1-1 draw against PSV, with Olympiacos notably netting 17 goals across their six home matches in the Greek Super League (2.83 per game). They may be able to cause Real problems with the issues that Alonso’s side have been facing in recent weeks. 

Arsenal have earned the tag of being quite a pragmatic side, but recent results show their ability to hold their own in high-scoring matches. Arsenal have seen 3+ goals in each of their last three matches against Slavia Prague, Sunderland and Tottenham.

They’ve also seen 3+ goals in each of their last two matches in the Champions League. Arsenal are yet to concede a goal in the Champions League, but that record should be pushed here by a Bayern Munich side that have scored more goals than any other side in the Champions League so far this term (14).

These sides met in the knockout stages of the Champions League in 2023/24, with the tie at the Emirates producing 3+ goals as the sides played out a 2-2 draw. There was an xG of 2.92 produced on that occasion, and both sides have since improved their impact in the final third - offering real promise when looking for at least three goals in this contest.

Marcus Thuram had an average of 1.09 fouls per 90 last season in all competitions, but that has jumped considerably to 2.47 fouls per 90 this season under Christian Chivu. The Inter Milan manager demands an intense press from his side, which has brought an uptick in duels and fouls for the Nerazzurri.

The press is led by the attacking duo, with Lautaro Martinez also averaging 1.86 fouls per 90 this season. Thuram has landed this bet in six of his eight starts this season, registering multiple infringements in five of those. When starting in the Champions League, he amassed three fouls in round one against Ajax, and two fouls against Slavia Prague, before being replaced after 66 minutes.

Thuram has been recovering from injury, but did play the full 90 against AC Milan on Sunday, so seems to be back at full fitness, and should be gearing up to start against Atletico.

Real Madrid were left frustrated by Elche at the weekend as the hosts held out for a 2-2 draw, resisting a late Los Blancos onslaught. That result made it three matches without a win for Xabi Alonso’s men - while his side are still sitting pretty at the top of the Spanish top flight, he will want to re-discover that early season form sooner rather than later.

Dean Huijsen has committed a foul in all three of those matches which Real Madrid have failed to win, while also picking up a booking against Liverpool on his last Champions League outing. The centre back is averaging 1.19 fouls per 90 in all competitions this season, and has landed this selection in 12 out of 14 matches overall.

He even registered two fouls against Kairat Almaty in round two of the Champions League, despite Real Madrid cruising to a 5-0 victory on their travels.

Perhaps the biggest game of Wednesday night takes place at the Emirates, as an in-form Arsenal host German heavy-weights Bayern Munich in a first versus second clash in the Champions League. Both sides boast a flawless record of four wins from four in Europe so far, meaning there is everything to play for, and fouls become a target.

Michael Olise makes his return to London, and is a player to keep an eye on. The Frenchman is averaging 1.37 fouls per 90 in all competitions, and has landed this selection in all four Champions League matches, including three fouls against Chelsea in round one.

Given that Riccardo Calafiori tends to be rested for midweek games, and Piero Hincapie has shifted into a centre back role with Gabriel injured, Olise will likely match up against Myles Lewis-Skelly on Wednesday night, who is averaging a notable 3.29 fouls drawn per 90 this season.

Real Madrid have been a very shot happy team this season, these figures are massively helped when you’ve got Mbappe taking on 4.90 shots per 90 in La Liga, and 6.67 shots per 90 in the Champions League.

Madrid are averaging 20.08 shots per match across La Liga and the Champions League, which has translated to an average of 7.88 shots on target per game.

The crazy thing has been the shot on target numbers across their Champions League campaign. If you treat the game against Liverpool as an outlier, their shot on target numbers against Marseille, Kairat Almaty, and Juventus were 15, 12, and 10, respectively.

Even when Real Madrid have taken the lead in these games, they haven’t been resting on their laurels. There’s been an urgency to stay on the front foot and be positive in their approach, exemplified by the positive shooting numbers after they’ve taken the lead.

Gelson Martins is a key source of pace and athleticism on the right-wing for Olympiacos, making him a very effective outlet on the counter attack. His dribbling ability often draws fouls from opposition players. Gelson Martins has been fouled a notable 10 times across just 197 minutes of Champions League football, notably, six of those fouls came against Arsenal.

These averages hold up pretty well in the Greek Super League, where he’s been fouled an average of 3.30 times per 90. Effectively utilising the counter attack will be one of Olympiacos’ best routes for success against Real Madrid, and the visitors will be wary of this. Opposition teams have looked to foul Martins as a way of neutralising this outlet.

Real Madrid’s left hand side of the pitch is likely to include Alvaro Carreras, Eduardo Camavinga, and Vinicius Junior. If you take each of those players and cumulatively add their fouls per 90 together (Champions League), you reach a total of 3.32 per 90. Logically, there’s a very good chance one of them will commit a foul on Gelson Martins at some point during the game.

It’s been a crazy start to the season for Mbappe; he’s already managed 18 goals in 17 games. Real Madrid are finding ways to draw penalties from their opposition quite regularly; they’ve already had seven penalties across all competitions, with three of them coming in the Champions League. Mbappe has converted six of his seven spot kicks.

Mbappe is getting plenty of ammunition from team-mates, currently averaging 1.02 xG per 90 across all competitions. There is a slight overperformance from Mbappe in terms of finishing; he’s managed a prolific 1.08 goals per 90.

Mbappe’s scoring consistency can’t be called into question, there have been just five games across the current campaign where he’s failed to score a goal, and this includes international fixtures for France. He’s scored in 16 out of the 21 games he’s played this season, giving him a 76.19% hit rate. At odds of 1.67, it looks a reliable and logical play.

It’s been a frustrating start to the Champions League campaign for Olympiacos, there’s been a real lack of ruthlessness despite promising situations against Pafos and PSV. However, they looked far inferior against Arsenal and Barcelona, losing to Barcelona by a hefty 6-1 scoreline. Real Madrid will present a similar standard of opposition to Arsenal and Olympiacos, they should have the quality to brush aside the hosts.

Real Madrid have been a force this season, cultivating a real habit of winning games; they’ve now won 13 out of their 17 matches this campaign in all competitions. Two of those games where they failed to win were against Atletico Madrid and Liverpool, very high-quality opposition.

Despite having won 13 matches this season, it’s now three without a win for Real Madrid, psychologically, they will be very keen to get back to winning ways on Wednesday evening. They were admittedly unlucky to draw against Elche at the weekend, racking up an xG of 3.49, to Elche’s 1.44.

I initially liked Bodo/Glimt in the shots on target market as underdogs, but after looking at Luciano Spalletti’s record in restricting opponents’ shots on target, it feels too risky to back Bodo/Glimt here. However, I still think that Bodo/Glimt will have plenty of the ball, press high in Juventus territory and attempt to take the game to the Italians. I don’t think that they really know any other way.

The data that backs up this bet is that Bodo/Glimt have conceded 6.6 shots on target on average in the Champions League this season. Most of those have come in away matches, but it does highlight the issue that the Norwegians can have on the opposite side of their attacking intent.

The veteran centre back has been a big part of the success story of Bodo/Glimt over the last number of years, however, he has played an increasingly bit part role in the team this season. He will be called upon here, in part due to injury and suspension, but that is a concern for me at the very highest level.

He is 34 in December, so it is great for Moe to have this Champions League experience in probably his final season at the top level, but my concern is that he will be caught out for pace, athleticism, and balance by Juve attackers. If not that, then he could easily foul whilst involved in aerial duels.

He has never been a regular fouler in his career, but he did concede three fouls in 70 minutes against Monaco in the last Champions League match. His rate for fouling this season is down at 0.4 fouls per 90, but his record over the last two seasons playing in UEFA competition doubles that rate of fouling.

With the possibility of Juventus playing on the break, Moe versus Jonathan David is a massive concern on the ground, whilst, if Dusan Vlahovic retains a start, then Moe can easily get involved physically with the Serbian.

Fet is the regular LCM in the Bodo/Glimt three-man midfield. He has started the last 10 matches in a row, including the last three Champions League matches. In nine of those 10 starts, Fet has had at least one shot. In all three Champions League matches, Fet has had at least one shot.

His rate of shooting over Bodo/Glimt’s last 30 matches as a whole is 2.01 per 90, in the Champions League alone, this rises to 2.48 per 90.

Bodo/Glimt are not afraid of shooting, even in the Champions League. If we include the qualifier against Sturm Graz, then Bodo/Glimt have hit 17 shots, 18 shots, and 17 again in their three home Champions League matches, if they keep up that rate of shooting, or even a touch lower, it is difficult to see that Fet won’t contribute to that. This price is irresistible given the data available and the way I expect that match to play out.

If I was playing in the match market I would be leaning towards Bodo/Glimt, with Juventus being around the even money mark for the win. Bodo/Glimt have actually won the xG battle in all of their home Champions League matches so far, whilst Juventus lost the xG battle in both of their away matches in the Champions League.

This, by reputation, is Juventus’ easiest away game so far, and Bodo/Glimt’s most difficult, so there is some doubt there - the safer way to attack this match is to favour the Norwegian champions in the corner market instead. I am expecting Bodo/Glimt to attack this match in the way that they always do when playing at home, squeeze into their opponents’ half and play an attacking game.

This should lead to shots and corners for the home side. They have hit this line in all three of their home Champions League matches so far, against Monaco, Tottenham, and the qualifier against Sturm Graz.

Juventus conceded 13 corners to Real Madrid in their last Champions League away game, and then four to Villarreal in the previous away game to that.

The bookies are unsure who to side with in the corners market, pricing both sides at evens to win the most, but I think Slavia Prague might have the edge, and backing them to win at least four looks to be the best value.

Domestically, Slavia Prague have averaged a remarkable 8.19 corners per match - the most of any side by some stretch. Their record is distinctly better at home, especially in the Champions League, where they still maintain a rate of six corners per game, surpassing the four-mark in both matches, including against Arsenal. 

This selection landed in all eight of Slavia Prague’s Europa League matches last season, where they averaged just under seven corners per game, despite recording just one win and two draws across those eight games.

Athletic Club have averaged 5.33 corners conceded per away game in La Liga, with this line landing on all six occasions. It’s also been a winner in each of their last five league matches.

With 16 games played, Slavia Prague are still unbeaten in the Czech First League, and have been even more dominant at home, where they’re averaging 2.5 points per game.

Even against the stiffer competition of the Champions League, Slavia have avoided defeat in two of their four, including against Atalanta. The quality of Inter Milan and Arsenal, who made up two of the final four in last season’s UCL, helps mitigate the severity of their two losses.

By contrast, Athletic Club are winless in their most recent five matches, and have been defeated in nine of their last 14, recording just three wins over that period. Averaging 0.67 points per game away from home, there’s very little indication to suggest they’ll fare well in Prague.

This match is likely to treat us to plenty of goals, and I think both sides are well-placed to find a way onto the scoresheet.

71% of Galatasaray’s home league matches this season have seen both teams score, and that’s despite their domestic dominance and relatively weaker opposition. This line has also landed in 63% of USG’s away clashes, where they concede at a rate over six times greater than that at home.

All four of USG’s Champions League matches have produced at least four goals, while Galatasaray’s have averaged 3.5. Last season, this selection came home in all 10 of their Europa League outings, with those games averaging 4.4 goals per 90 minutes.

Over 2.5 goals is another option, but at a slightly longer price, I think BTTS is where the value lies.

Galatasaray seem to have turned a remarkable corner in the Champions League, and having already beaten Liverpool, Bodø/Glimt, and Ajax, I expect them to claim yet another victory.

In their 17 matches across all competitions this season, the Turkish giants have registered 13 wins and suffered just two defeats; meanwhile, their underlying numbers are just as strong.

I expect the hostile atmosphere at the Rams Park Stadium to play an important role, too, particularly given USG’s woes on the road. The Belgian Pro League leaders' PPG drops from a perfect 3.00 to just 1.88 away from home - not an encouraging sign given Galatasaray’s notoriously intimidating support.

Despite the Dutch giants’ remarkably poor form, they’ve maintained their consistency in the corners market, winning at least four in 11 of their 13 league games to date. Across the duration of the season, Ajax have averaged 5.85 corners per 90, rising to 6.57 when considering only their matches at home.

In away matches this season, Benfica’s league opponents have averaged 3.6 corners per 90; meanwhile, the Portuguese outfit has conceded them at a rate of 7.5 per game in the UCL. This reflects a continuation of what we saw last season, where they conceded at least four corners in four of their five trips outside of Portugal.

With both sides having put in a series of dismal displays in the Champions League, there will be a mutual understanding that one point is as good as 0, so I’d be surprised to see the points split.

With that in mind, backing a Benfica win looks to be the way to go. They remain one of only two undefeated teams in Liga NOS, having recorded seven wins and four draws since the start of the season. Their away form has been particularly impressive - a PPG of 2.6 and just a single goal conceded. 

The key difference here is that Ajax have not only been abysmal in the Champions League, but also in the Eredivisie. Between the two, they’ve lost five of their last seven, and the manner of their defeats offers no solace. Their previous three UCL matches yielded 4-0, 5-1, and 3-0 defeats against Marseille, Chelsea, and Galatasaray, respectively.

Luciano Spalletti has so far been unable to reverse Juventus’ fortunes since taking over from Igor Tudor at the start of November, as he has overseen just one win and three draws from his four matches. He seems set to persist with the 5-2-3 shape of his predecessor, with a midfield pivot of Kephram Thuram and Manuel Locatelli. 

The former has seen a noticeable uptick in infringements since the arrival of Spalletti - Thuram has committed a total of 11 fouls in those four matches, including a booking against Sporting in his last European outing. The Frenchman is averaging 1.75 fouls per 90 this season, and has landed this bet in each of his last seven appearances across all competitions. 

Bodo might seem like an easy opponent, but they are not to be underestimated on home turf. Thuram will find duels against Sondre Auklend in midfield, who has drawn 11 free-kicks from his four Champions League appearances this term.

Joao Pedro picked up his first booking of the Premier League season against Burnley at the weekend, as he committed a total of two fouls before being substituted after 76 minutes. The Brazilian was sent off against Benfica on his Champions League debut at Stamford Bridge - despite only featuring for a brief cameo off the bench, he racked up three fouls and two bookable offences. 

Joao Pedro likes to put himself about and contest duels, and has seen an uptick in fouls when playing in midfield. The 24-year-old has committed a foul in nine of his last ten appearances in all competitions, including all three of his Champions League matches. 

He should have plenty of defensive work to get through in midfield against Barcelona on Tuesday night, and his primary matchup will be Frenkie De Jong, who is averaging 1.6 fouls drawn per 90 this campaign in all competitions. 

Qarabag have shown they are certainly not minnows in this competition, they are effective on the counter attack, but can also have spells of possession and dominance in the opposition half. The visitors have taken on 38 shots across their first four games, never going under nine shots, and never going above 10 shots. These are credible stats considering they’ve faced three teams that would be regarded as far superior.

Camilo Duran has been an instrumental part of those shooting stats, averaging two shots per game. He’s managed at least a shot in every single Champions League game so far. Duran plays as the central striker and is therefore a key focal point for their attacking phases of play. 

Napoli haven’t been able to completely dominate and suffocate their opposition on home soil this season, giving up 88 shots in eight home games across all competitions. With visiting teams averaging 11.0 shots, there’s certainly solid reasoning to believe Camilo Duran will attempt a shot on Tuesday evening.

With Rasmus Hojlund out with a hamstring injury from the weekend, Lorenzo Lucca should be the like-for-like replacement with Romelu Lukaku already out injured. Lucca’s gametime across Serie A and the Champions League has been limited this season, testament to the form of Hojlund. However, Lucca is putting up solid shot numbers whenever he has featured so far this term, currently going at 2.9 shots per 90 in Serie A.

Napoli should dominate the game on Tuesday, and this should lead to a steady supply of ammunition. To account for a bigger sample size, Lucca was having 2.48 shots per 90 last season for Udinese, which is still a decent number. Given that he’s now playing for a more accomplished and dominant side, it’s no surprise his averages have gone up. With the insurance of Super Sub, there’s a solid chance this pick landing. Lucca will be very eager to make an impression and rival and stake his claims to be the first choice striker, this should add an element of hunger and enthusiasm to his game on Tuesday.

Qarabag play an expansive brand of football which can produce effectiveness in attacking areas, but it also leads them to conceding plenty of chances. Qarabag’s four Champions League games have produced a sizable 15 goals, with just one of those matches producing under 2.5 goals; a game against more similarly matched opposition in the vein of FC Copenhagen.

Qarabag have found the net on eight occasions, so there’s clearly an ability to score goals, which could increase the likelihood of over 2.5 goals landing. Napoli’s home victories are producing a good number of goals this season, with five out of their six home wins having over 2.5 goals.

There should be an eagerness and desire about Napoli on Tuesday evening, especially after blanking at home a few times recently, it wouldn’t surprise me if they come out the blocks quickly and score a couple of early goals.

There’s no doubt that Qarabag can be a very effective side, they’re forward thinking in transition and commit lots of bodies on the counter attack, but the Italians should be too streetwise for them. The home side should get plenty of chances here, facilitated by Qarabag’s progressive approach in and out of possession.

Qarabag did admittedly beat Benfica on away soil, but they were far inferior to Atletico Bilbao in a tricky away match, conceding three goals, 3.46xG, and 21 shots. Napoli are fairly robust defensively, conceding just six goals in eight home matches in all competitions. It’s therefore unlikely the hosts will be affording Qarabag the amount of chances they got against Benfica.

Napoli’s home form has been strong this season, winning every single match aside from two 0-0 draws against Como and Frankfurt. Their 3-1 win against Atalanta at the weekend will give them real confidence coming into this one.

Tomas Chory was left frustrated on his last Champions League outing, as he failed to register a shot against Arsenal before being replaced shortly after half-time. Since then, the 30-year-old has been in standout form, bagging himself a brace in a tough away day against Viktoria Plzen, while also scoring against Bohemians at the weekend. He's now taken seven shots on target across his last four matches for Slavia.

The Czech Republic international is the primary attacking threat for Slavia Prague, and will be needed by his side on Tuesday night. With just two points after four matches, Slavia are on track to be eliminated from the Champions League. 

Athletic Club have also been in poor form this season, and have lost six of their last seven away matches in all competitions, coming into this match having been dismantled 4-0 by Barcelona on Saturday afternoon. The Fortuna Arena can be an intimidating ground to visit, and Slavia will hope to capitalise on a wounded Athletic Club side still licking their wounds. 

Still pointless after four European outings, the alarm bells are ringing for Ajax. The Dutch side have been woeful at the back, with 14 goals conceded ranking them as the worst defensive unit in the Champions League. With their qualification hopes slipping away, Ajax will need to secure three points at the Johan Cruyff Arena on Tuesday night, so will have to be attack-minded. 

Oscar Gloukh will have a big role to play in midfield, as he has been one of the bright sparks for Ajax this season. The 21-year-old has four goals and three assists to his name in all competitions, and his average of 2.92 shots per 90 in the Eredivisie is the highest in the Ajax squad. 

With 48% of those efforts hitting the target, Gloukh does tend to be quite accurate, while he will also be the designated free-kick taker for the Dutch side.

Galatasaray are progressing really well in the Champions League and have won three of their four matches so far, bouncing back well to the 5-1 defeat they suffered on Matchday one at the hands of Frankfurt. These results see them sit just one spot outside of the top eight, with a real opportunity to break into that exclusive club with a win here.

It looks like Union Saint Gilloise are in the Champions League a season or two too early when looking at their performances so far. Only Ajax (14) have conceded more goals than USG (12) in the Champions League, with USG’s two away matches producing eight goals (4.0 per game).

Galatasaray have seen 3+ goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions, and should be motivated to push on for a high scoring victory when considering USG’s poor record in the competition this season.

Tuesday’s offering also includes a slate of fixtures from the Eerste Divisie, with this game really standing out for a high goal count. Vitesse sit rock bottom of the Eerste Divisie, but are remaining competitive in their matches with 25 goals scored across their 14 games (1.78 per game).

The issue for Vitesse is that they have conceded the exact same number of goals, which has capped them at five wins from 14 matches - Vitesse’s six home matches have produced 20 goals (3.33 per game). They take on a PSV side that are battling at the opposite end of the table and are in a real scrap for the playoff spots, with the top two opening up a substantial gap at the summit.

PSV have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches in the Eerste Divisie, with two wins in this period. Their away matches have produced an incredible 35 goals (4.3 per game), promising another exciting encounter in this meeting.

Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg missed out on Friday night as he continues to recover from a muscle injury, and Roberto De Zerbi will likely have to contend without the Danish international once again midweek. Geoffrey Kondogbia was thrust straight back into the starting lineup for the first time since mid-September, and seemed to struggle in midfield. He received a first-half booking before being hooked after 70 minutes. 

Arthur Vermeeren looked a bit more settled alongside him and had plenty of defensive work to get through. He contested a total of nine duels, winning three tackles, while also committing three fouls. Vermeeren repeated that feat just before the international break, as he racked up three fouls against Brest.

The Belgian international is averaging 2.11 fouls per 90 in all competitions this season, along with 2.47 tackles per 90. He has shown a real willingness to get stuck into duels this campaign, which makes this angle stand out.

After starting ten consecutive matches for Barcelona, that run came to an end at the weekend, as Rashford missed out against Athletic Club. However, Hansi Flick confirmed that it was only due to illness, so with a few additional days to recover, Rashford hopes to reclaim his starting spot on the left wing against Chelsea midweek. 

Rashford has been in exceptional form this season and has scored six goals since completing his loan move to Barcelona. Some of his best performances have come in the Champions League, which is why Hansi Flick will be so eager to recall him. Rashford bagged a brace in round one against Newcastle, registering a total of six shots to help his side come away with a 2-1 victory. The Englishman repeated that feat with two goals against Olympiacos. 

Rashford is averaging 4.44 shots per 90 (1.52 SOT) in all competitions this season, one of the highest in the Catalans’ squad, to highlight his involvement going forward.

Man City enter the fifth gameweek of the Champions League without a defeat in the competition so far, winning three of their four matches. These games have produced 13 goals (3.25 per game), with two of them seeing 3+ goals, including their most recent assignment in the Champions League as they ran out 4-1 winners over Dortmund.

Leverkusen could be in for a similar battering here with how open they’ve been in general play this season. They sit 21st in the league phase with their four matches producing 16 goals (4.0 per game) - Leverkusen have only managed to win one of these games. The Bundesliga side travel to the Etihad having seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions.

Man City will be looking to bounce back from their 2-1 defeat against Newcastle at the weekend, a game that marked the fifth occasion in a row where City have seen over 2.5 goals across all competitions. City should be able to extend their strong record in the Champions League against a side that has conceded 10 across their four Champions League matches so far.

Waalwijk’s 0-0 draw against Top Oss last time out ended a run of 11 matches in a row where Waalwijk had seen BTTS. It shouldn’t take too long for that pattern to emerge again here, with Maastricht seeing BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions.

Waalwijk have been unable to find consistency at home this season, with just three wins from their eight matches. They’ve conceded 15 goals across these matches, netting 14 themselves - which is a record that falls in line with their recent record of BTTS in 11 of their last 12 matches.

BTTS has landed in each of the last three head-to-head meetings between these sides, and the recent records of both give it a strong chance of landing again here. Waalwijk are natural favourites, as Maastricht have only won one of their matches on the road this season, but their lack of defensive security at home opens the door for Maastricht to get on the scoresheet.

Eddie Howe was quick to dismiss the tag of Newcastle as a ‘cup side’ in a recent interview, but his side do possess the required traits to be an effective side in this competition. The Magpies have won three of their four matches in the Champions League, only losing to Barcelona.

Newcastle have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions, and are likely to be tested at times by Marseille in this contest. Roberto De Zerbi’s side haven’t quite found their groove in the Champions League with just one win from their four matches, though this victory did come at home in a 4-0 battering of Ajax.

Marseille saw BTTS last time out as they ran out 5-1 winners over Nice. This result lifted Marseille to within two points of PSG at the summit of Ligue 1 in what looks to be the most competitive title race we’ve seen in France in recent seasons. Marseille have netted 21 goals across their six home matches this term (3.5 per game).

This is a really important game for Villarreal in the context of the continuation of their Champions League campaign. Villarreal currently sit third in LaLiga, only behind Real Madrid and Barcelona, but these performances haven’t quite translated to their European games yet. Villarreal have lost three of their four matches in the Champions League, making this a must not lose at the very least.

Dortmund come into this game having seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions. Their most recent assignment against Stuttgart ended in a 3-3 draw, highlighting Dortmund’s tendency to see goals at both ends. This has also been true in the Champions League, with Dortmund seeing BTTS in all four of their games in the competition so far.

Villarreal come into this game having won four of their last five matches across all competitions, most recently running out 2-1 winners over Mallorca. They have kept clean sheets in three of these games, but will be hard pressed to keep another here, with Dortmund netting 13 goals across their four Champions League matches (3.25 per game).

Both sides enter this contest having seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions. Derby’s games, in particular, have been really entertaining, with 44 goals across their 16 Championship matches (22 scored, 22 conceded - 2.75 per game).

Derby saw another entertaining clash last time out as they fell to a 3-2 defeat against Watford at home. They’re currently overachieving their xG by seven goals in the Championship, which is the second largest overachievement in the league, behind league leaders Coventry (+9).

Derby have progressed pretty well on the road so far, avoiding defeat in five of their seven matches. These games have produced 19 goals (10 scored, nine conceded - 2.71 per game). Derby have seen BTTS in five of these matches, so goals at both ends have been common on their travels this term.

Swansea have seen 22 goals across their eight home games this term (2.75 per game). They’ll be optimistic of their chances of getting on the scoresheet here, given Derby’s defensive issues on the road.

This could be a really good game. Saints came back from the international break in confident mood, scoring four goals in nine minutes against Charlton. That makes it three wins in a row for Southampton under Tonda Eckert and straightaway makes them a very dangerous beast, because it is clear how many good players they have in their squad.

Leo Scienza has made a huge difference to Southampton, which has helped Adam Armstrong, and the introduction of Casper Jander, Finn Azaz, and Tom Fellows has really helped the supply line as well. They remain a top six side in terms of their expected points throughout the season, and they are now starting to catch up with their underperformance of their xG, which is the second highest total in the league behind Coventry.

Leicester still find a knack of scoring goals on a regular basis, so whilst their expected goals total is nowhere as good as Southampton’s, they do match it with their actual output. What this means in this case is that they have found the net in eight of their nine away matches so far this season.

Meanwhile, Southampton, despite thrashing Charlton, still managed to concede a goal, continuing their remarkable run of 15 out of 19 of their matches this season ending BTTS-Yes.

There are many reasons why I want to side with Watford here. Their form since the appointment of Javi Gracia has been excellent, especially at home. Indeed, Watford have the third best home record in the competition, and this particular bet has only lost once so far this season in Watford home matches.

They have won five of their eight home matches, and though Preston are above Watford in the league table in terms of actual points won, Watford swap places with Preston when looking at the expected goals table so far this season - so the Hornets’ performances have generally been of a higher standard.

Watford also have the benefit of performing that remarkable late comeback and win against Derby on Saturday. This will provide them with a great deal of confidence and momentum going into this match, and what will please Gracia is that they have now gone six matches in a row, and nine out of 10, in getting on the scoresheet.

Preston were totally outplayed by Blackburn on Friday night. It is the first time that I have watched Preston and thought that they were lacking in more than just outright quality, but the injuries and suspensions at the top of the pitch seem to have hurt them. They also really missed Harrison Armstrong in midfield with his extra athletic ability, he has a muscle injury and is a doubt for this match, too. Preston have won only twice away from home so far this season, and I think Watford are value for the win here.

This is more an anti-Swansea stance than a pro-Derby one, though Derby have just come off the back of the a five match winning streak themselves, so are in good form.

Swansea have just confirmed Vitor Matos as their new manager, so they do at least have some new leadership in the building, though it would be fair to say that the level of experience in the dugout probably remains similar. Matos may well turn out to be a great long term appointment, but any impact that he could have on this game would most likely be psychological and subconscious.

Swansea are down at the bottom of a lot of form indicators right now. They have lost three in a row in the league, not won in five in all competitions, 21st in the expected points table across the season as a whole, and they have only won the xG battle in a match once in their last 10 matches.

Derby might feel a bit shell-shocked here having looked totally set to extend their winning run to six matches on Saturday, as they were 2-0 up at home to Watford going into the final quarter. However, a capitulation meant that they lost 2-3, and whilst that can be a negative here, it could also work for us in that concentration levels will be redoubled for this match.

Derby have been well organised and hard to beat for a number of weeks now, and whilst losing Carlton Morris to injury is a blow, it gives Patrick Agyemang the opportunity to take up that #9 mantle, and bring in a different attacker to provide something else. Derby have only lost one of their last six away games in the league, which makes this double chance price very appealing.

Ipswich are fast becoming a very frustrating follow for this column. They again failed to turn dominance into a victory, but there was, again, positives to take from the performance. They restricted Wrexham to two shots and 0.04xG all game. This was partially because of Wrexham’s complete lack of ambition to win the game.

The reason why I am recommending to go back to the well with Ipswich, though, is precisely because I think that Hull don’t have that Wrexham-esque resolve in them. Hull have been the biggest entertainers in the Championship this season. They most recently demonstrated that on Saturday with a 2-3 defeat to QPR, but this is the latest in a long line of high scoring encounters.

Especially with Hull being at home, there is something of a compulsion for the Tigers to carry the fight to Ipswich, but I suspect that could be their downfall. Ipswich have shown plenty of times recently that if they do get given space, they are more than capable of putting teams to the sword. Ipswich’s last two away games have been 4-1 wins, and this demonstrates my point precisely.

Marseille were beaten 1-0 by Atalanta in their last European outing, meaning they have won just one of their four Champions League matches so far, with the other three ending in losses. As it stands, Les Phoceens currently sit 25th in the standings, marginally outside of the playoff spots, so they will be desperate for their fortunes to change. If Marseille are to keep their qualification hopes alive, results will have to improve, and they should be front-footed in their approach on Tuesday night.

Nick Pope has been kept busy in Newcastle’s away games this season, averaging 3.71 saves per 90 in all competitions. The Englishman made six saves against USG in an earlier round in the Champions League, despite the Magpies running riot in a 4-0 win. Newcastle have conceded nine goals in their last three away matches, and Pope has racked up 14 saves across those games, highlighting how Newcastle have struggled at the back.

After spurning a huge chance to give Newcastle the lead in the first-half against Man City, Harvey Barnes more than atoned for his mistake, as he bagged himself a brace in the second period to earn the Magpies three points. He capped off a sweeping Newcastle move with his first goal, before netting the winner in the 70th minute, reacting first to a rebound in the box.

Anthony Gordon has missed the last two games through injury, which has provided Barnes with an opportunity to start on the left wing. The 27-year-old has seized his opportunity - he has started three consecutive games, and landed this selection in all of those matches.

Barnes has turned up in the Champions League this season, too. He has three goals and one assist to his name, despite only starting two matches in Europe. Even if Gordon is fit for this clash, it will be difficult to drop Barnes from the starting lineup given his form.

Leonardo Balerdi was a doubt to feature against Nice, but did last for 77 minutes before being replaced by Conrad Egan-Riley. It seems like the Argentine international is still not quite at 100%, meaning Benjamin Pavard has become an incredibly important player at the back for Roberto De Zerbi.

Since completing a loan move from Inter Milan, Pavard is averaging 1.24 fouls per 90 for his new club, a notable increase on his 0.9 fouls per 90 average for the Nerazzurri last season. Pavard is tasked with being a lot more aggressive in his duels for Marseille - he has already been shown five yellow cards, despite only starting 12 matches across all competitions.

He will have to deal with Nick Woltemade on Tuesday night, who has proven to be a tough player to contain. The German international is averaging 1.52 fouls drawn per 90 this season in all competitions.

Igor Paixao got on the scoresheet against Nice on Friday night, as he registered a total of three shots, of which two hit the target. The Brazilian is averaging 2.9 shots per 90 in all competitions this season, has been an impressive performer for Marseille since completing a £26m from Feyenoord over the summer.

Paixao has five goals from 14 appearances for the French club. Given that he scored 18 goals for Feyenoord last season, there is plenty of room for improvement, but Paixao has shown glimpses of his potential.

He scored a brace against Ajax in round two of the Champions League in his first home outing in the competition. He also got on the scoresheet against Sporting Lisbon, highlighting how he turns up for the European fixtures. This bet has landed in nine of the last 10 games which Paixao has started, and he will hope to maintain that record midweek.

Nico Gonzalez racked up three fouls against Newcastle at St James’ Park at the weekend, and was incredibly fortunate to escape a booking. The Spain international has been starting in defensive midfield for Man City this season, emulating Rodri, who continues to be hindered by injury. 

City are not quite as adept at retaining possession as they used to be, meaning Gonzalez has plenty of duels to get through. The 23-year-old is averaging 1.45 fouls per 90 this season in all competitions, while he has also picked up three bookings. 

Leverkusen are likely to sit deep at the Etihad and look to play on the counter. Patrik Schick will be the primary outlet for the German side, and he is averaging 1.33 fouls drawn per 90 this season. Leverkusen will pose a threat in transition, and Gonzalez is no stranger to a cynical foul.

Marseille looked a real threat going forward against Nice (5-1 win), as they racked up 2.29xG from 13 efforts. The visitors also managed six corners, hitting this mark with ease. Les Phoceens have managed at least four corners in five of their eight matches in all competitions at the Velodrome Stadium this season, landing this bet against the likes of PSG and Atalanta.

Meanwhile, Newcastle are conceding an average of 5.86 corners per game in all competitions this season, with this line landing in six of their seven matches. The only team who failed to hit this mark was Aston Villa in round one of the Premier League in August, but they still went close with three corner kicks.

Newcastle have struggled on the road this campaign, and have lost three away matches on the bounce, which should give Marseille confidence that they can find success in the final third.

Following the international break, Marseille find themselves in a bit of an injury crisis, which has put Roberto De Zerbi under pressure. Nayef Aguerd, Amir Murillo and Facundo Medina were all absent from the backline last time out, but Marseille fortunately had all of their attackers available, and they put on a show in the Mediterranean derby against Nice. Mason Greenwood scored a brace, while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang also put in a standout performance, registering a goal and two assists in a 5-1 win.

Marseille have been strong on home turf this season, with 25 goals scored from just eight matches in all competitions. They have won six of those matches at the Velodrome Stadium, so they will be confident coming into this Champions League clash. However, they are looking a bit light on defensive options - Timothy Weah had to deputise at the back against Nice, which makes goals a target.

Phil Foden has had his critics over the last year or so, but the English international has looked more determined than ever to prove himself in recent weeks. He has been playing with an increased vigor and intensity, which has reflected in his foul counts - Foden has committed a foul in nine of his last 11 starts in all competitions, which makes this price really stand out.

The 25-year-old is also averaging 1.3 tackles per 90 in all competitions this season, a significant increase on his average of 0.57 tackles per 90 last season. In 45 appearances across all competitions for Man City last term, Foden picked up just two yellow cards - he already has three yellows to his name after just 15 appearances this campaign.

It has been a real breakthrough campaign for Nico O’Reilly, as he has established himself as the starting left back under Pep Guardiola this season. His impressive performances earned him a call-up to the England squad, while he also scored his first goal of the season against Bournemouth at the start of November.

Confidence is sky-high for the 20-year-old, and he has been particularly proactive in the final third. The English international has hit this mark in all three Champions League outings so far, against Napoli, Monaco and Dortmund.

O’Reilly does tend to pop up in promising positions as the spare man in the box, and if Leverkusen are to sit deep, he should once again be able to advance forward. Standing at 6’3, O’Reilly is also a major box presence and aerial threat - he managed a shot on target against Napoli which came from a corner situation.

Jarell Quansah has had to watch on from the bench in the last two matches, with Leverkusen skipper Robert Andrich preferred to start in the backline. However, Kasper Hjulmand is likely to opt for more defensive cover against Man City, so Andrich could slot back into midfield alongside Aleix Garcia, with Quansah re-called at the back. The former Liverpool man has valuable experience against Man City, and facing Haaland in particular.

He will also find himself on the same flank as Jeremy Doku, who is averaging 2.86 fouls drawn per 90 this season. The Belgian international comes into this clash full of confidence, in a rich vein of form. In the Champions League, he has drawn 12 fouls from his four appearances, which is the most of any City player. Based on that, it could be a long night for Quansah at the back.

Erling Haaland posted a rare blank at the weekend as he failed to score for only the second game this season. However, the Norwegian international still had his fair share of chances - of his five shots, two hit the target, while he also missed two big chances.

Haaland tends to bounce back strongly from his setbacks, which doesn’t bode well for Leverkusen. After failing to score against Tottenham in round two of the Premier League, Haaland bounced back with a goal against Brighton, racking up seven shots with three on target in that game. He also blanked against Aston Villa in October, but followed that up with a brace against Bournemouth.

Haaland is on track to have his most prolific season to date, with 19 goals for Man City in just 16 appearances. That is even before taking into consideration the 13 goals in five games he has for Norway.

Although the game against PSG was heavily influenced by red cards, Leverkusen didn’t offer much resistance on that occasion (7-2 defeat). Leverkusen faced Bayern not long after that defeat, and despite Vincent Kompany opting for significant rotation with Harry Kane, Michael Olise and Luis Diaz all benched, Beyern had the lions’ share of possession and were able to press home their advantage.

The Bavarians racked up 10 corners in that game as the visitors struggled to get out of their own half - Leverkusen managed just seven shots worth a lowly 0.23xG. Even 15th-placed Wolfsburg cleared this line comfortably against Die Werkself at the weekend, racking up nine corners.

Leverkusen have surrendered the fourth-most corners in the German top flight this season, averaging 6.56 corners against per away match in all competitions. Meanwhile, Man City rank fourth in the Premier League for total corners, and they are averaging 7.38 corners per game at the Etihad.

Man City were dominant in their last European outing as they put Borussia Dortmund to the sword in a 4-1 victory on home turf. The hosts were freely able to carve out chances, as Erling Haaland, Phil Foden and Rayan Cherki all got on the scoresheet, while Tijjani Reijnders pulled the strings in midfield with two assists.

That result should give Pep Guardiola’s men plenty of confidence, given how Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen are a similar calibre of opponent. Man City will welcome a return to the Etihad this week where they have won seven successive matches in front of a home support, including notable wins against Liverpool, Bournemouth and Napoli.

While Leverkusen have also been in good form, they have struggled against the top sides. Die Werkself lost 3-0 to Bayern Munich at the start of November, and suffered a heavy 7-2 defeat against PSG in the Champions League.

Rashford has a really good record against Chelsea, which could come to the fore here. Many will remember his knuckle ball free kick at Stamford Bridge when he was at Man United, which is one of a few occasions where Rashford has caused Chelsea real problems.

Rashford has found his feet at Barcelona, and his shot record is really promising for this selection. He’s had 39 shots across his 12 appearances in LaLiga (4.35 per 90), with 14 of these attempts finding the target (1.56 per 90). It’s worth noting that 17 of these shots have come from outside of the box (43%).

He has shown his best form for Barcelona in the Champions League, with five goal contributions across his four appearances in the competition. He’s averaging 4.68 shots per 90 across these matches, which is consistent with his output domestically.

I’m really excited to see the battle between Yamal and Cucurella. The Spaniard can be an acquired taste with some of his antics on and off the field, but what is undeniable is how effective he is in 1v1 duels. Very rarely will you see a winger get the better of Cucurella, with the 27-year-old maturing into one of the Blues’ most important players.

Cucurella has committed 15 fouls across his 12 appearances in the Premier League this season (1.37 per 90) and is an aggressive fullback that likes to get touch tight to his opponent. Yamal will challenge him regularly, having won 14 fouls across his nine appearances in LaLiga this term (1.74 per 90), as well as maintaining an average of 2.82 fouls won per 90 in the Champions League.

It’s also worth looking at Cucurella to pick up a card in this encounter. While he is effective in shutting down the opposition winger, he also finds himself in situations where he is having to scamper back after pushing up into the left half space as an adventuring fullback. This results in Cucurella having to make tactical fouls, often resulting in a caution.

Estevao has quickly become one of Chelsea’s most exciting players, with the 18-year-old enjoying another fantastic international break with Brazil, netting against both Senegal and Tunisia to take his international tally to five goals across 11 caps.

Maresca has been selective with using Estevao, which is a smart approach, he’s still only 18 and while he looks to be quite a humble character - it’s important that Maresca manages the emotions of this young squad. He’s done that really well so far with players like Palmer, James and Fernandez, with Estevao in line to be the next to benefit from this considered approach.

Estevao has scored two goals in the Champions League so far, showing that he can step up to the biggest occasions, and has also made an early habit of popping up in crucial moments. Estevao scored in each of his three starts for Chelsea just before the international break, with two of these starts coming in the Champions League. He currently leads the Chelsea squad when it comes to combined xG + xA in the Champions League, with a tally of 2.90.

I can’t bring myself to back Barcelona for a result at the moment, Flick’s style means that their brilliant attacking play is always put at risk by a ridiculously high defensive line, which opponents have been able to exploit. This was evident in Barcelona’s most recent Champions League assignment as they drew 3-3 with Club Brugge, allowing the Belgian side to register an xG of 2.14 from just 10 shots.

This has been a recurring issue for Barcelona this season, they have not kept a clean sheet in the Champions League so far. They constantly allow sides to generate high quality chances with the space they offer in behind their backline, which is so tempting for players to run beyond. Chelsea have the perfect wingers to exploit this, with Garnacho, Estevao and Neto offering brilliant workrate and speed down both flanks.

Chelsea have only suffered three defeats at Stamford Bridge this calendar year, and I think Maresca will have a plan to exploit Barcelona’s risky approach. Only Valencia (15) and Mallorca (14) have conceded more goals on the road than Barcelona in LaLiga this season, highlighting the extent to which Hansi Flick’s side are struggling to keep sides out.

Goals have been near guaranteed in every game this season when Barcelona take to the field, 16 of their 17 matches across all competitions have seen at least three goals - the exception being a 1-1 draw with Rayo Vallecano at the start of the campaign. It’s notable that Barcelona have kept just four clean sheets across their 13 matches in LaLiga, and none in the Champions League, with their most recent assignment being a 3-3 draw.

Maresca likes Chelsea to control games, but that may be out of the question here when considering the nature of Flick’s side. Chelsea have seen 3+ goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions, and are likely to be dragged into a high scoring affair here, with Barcelona relying on their attacking output to drag them through gamesm as their backline is very unsettled at the moment.

Moises Caicedo is arguably Chelsea’s most important player. You could make a case for Cole Palmer, or even Enzo Fernandez this season, but looking at how Chelsea have managed to cope without Palmer - Caicedo’s absence would definitely have a more marked impact.

You can see this when Chelsea play without Caicedo. A team more clinical than Burnley would have punished Chelsea with the amount of space they left in midfield last time out, with Caicedo rested for that game. That being said, Andrey Santos did fill in very well for Caicedo in the second half, showing how deep Chelsea’s squad is.

Caicedo has won 17 fouls across his 11 appearances in the Premier League this season (1.62 per 90) and regularly maintains a high foul won count, with his press resistance and ability to weave out of tight situations. Caicedo has won a further three fouls in the Champions League this campaign (0.87 per 90).

Barcelona like to press high and will target Caicedo specifically here, with Fermin Lopez likely to be his main opponent. Lopez was courted by Chelsea during the summer, but a move failed to materialise - he’s committed 12 fouls across his nine appearances in LaLiga (1.97 per 90), as well as picking up two yellow cards across his three appearances in the Champions League.

One of the main reasons as to why this game is so heavily anticipated is the breadth of young talent that will be on the pitch at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday evening. Lamine Yamal is the pick of the bunch, with the 18-year-old enjoying another stellar campaign.

Yamal has registered three goal contributions across his three matches in the Champions League so far, taking 12 shots across these games (4.24 per 90), with four of these attempts finding the target (1.41 per 90). One notable difference from Yamal’s overall approach this season is that he is a bit more selfish when it comes to taking aim, he already averaged 4.53 shots per 90 in LaLiga last term - but this has risen further to 5.10 shots per 90 this season. 

Another notable difference is that Yamal is finding the target more regularly, with 1.62 shots on target per 90, compared to the 1.48 he averaged in the same division last term. Yamal can extend his strong shot on target record here against a Chelsea side that still look a bit insecure at the back, and are likely to come under a blizzard of Barcelona attacks at some point in the contest.