Football Tips

After sitting out Wales' 7-1 win in midweek due to suspension, Ethan Ampadu should be raring to go on Sunday back in a Leeds shirt. The defensive midfielder is well known to referees for his combative approach and having committed 1.83 fouls per 90 this season, this looks a nice price for him to get stuck in once more. The Welshman has made at least two infringements in five of his last six starts and will no doubt be in thick of the action again.

Aston Villa’s midfield trio of Amadou Onana, Boubacar Kamara and Morgan Rogers will provide plenty of physical competition for Ampadu. That midfield combination have drawn 4.91 fouls per 90 between them and so the Leeds midfielder will do well to avoid the attention of the officials.

Reinildo has been a solid performer at the back for Sunderland this season since arriving from Atletico Madrid. The 31-year-old has started all eight matches which he has been available for selection - he did receive a straight red card against Aston Villa in September which saw him miss three games, but he slotted straight back into his regular left back spot after that. 

The Mozambique international can be overly-aggressive in his challenges, and he has also picked up an additional two yellow cards alongside that straight red. In fact, Reinildo has committed a foul in all eight of his Premier League appearances, averaging 2.17 fouls per 90. 

He will be up against Harry Wilson this weekend, who is adept at drawing contact. The Welshman is averaging 1.49 fouls drawn per 90, making this a matchup to keep an eye on out wide.

I think at the very least Hearts will pick up a point at Pittodrie on Sunday afternoon. Impressively, the Jam Tarts have won four of their five Scottish Premiership games away from home this season, with the only blot on their copy book a 2-2 draw with St Mirren. Across that stretch of road matches, Derek McInnes’ men have posted impressive victories away at the likes of Dundee United, Rangers and Kilmarnock. 

While Aberdeen have shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, their Scottish Premiership home form this season doesn't make for pretty reading. In fact, the Dons have won once in six attempts in front of their own supporters in the top-flight this term, with that solitary success coming against a Dundee team that are languishing in the lower reaches of the table. Jimmy Thelin’s team tasted defeat when hosting Hibernian last month, and they have since played out a 1-1 draw on home turf with Motherwell, which doesn't bode well ahead of a visit from a Hearts team that will be desperate to get back on track.

Antoine Semenyo has fired away at least one shot on target in each of his last five Premier League appearances, hitting eight shots on target in total over this period.

He has managed to his a minimum of one shot on target in 10 of his 11 league matches so far this season.

Joao Palhinha has been busy in front of goal as well as in defence for Tottenham this season, firing off 1.15 shots per 90 in Premier League action. The Portuguese midfielder is famed for his tackling and breaking up opponents' play, but has shown his attacking prowess with shots from set piece situations as well as from range, netting four goals across all competitions.

Arsenal are the most solid side defensively in the top division, conceding just 4.8 shots per game at the Emirates, and so will be a tough nut to crack. However, as well as the injury to Gabriel, Jurrien Timber and Calafiori also picked up knocks on international duty, and so the league leaders could be without three of their first-choice back four, in which case, it’s a great opportunity for Spurs to attack and cause a shock.

If Gabriel is missing, Arsenal are likely to be significantly weakened when defending set pieces which makes the prospect of backing Spurs defenders more appealing. The Gunners have conceded 30% of their total shots in the Premier League this season from dead ball situations, and so without their defensive talisman, it may be one of the few chinks in their armour.

If Spurs are to exploit this weakness, the most likely source looks to be Micky van de Ven, who is their 2nd-top scorer this season with three goals. The Dutch defender has averaged 0.64 shots per 90 in league action and landed this bet in his last start against Arsenal, and so the price on offer for a player full of confidence against a weakened defence is one we can take on.

Gabriel’s injury on international duty for Brazil looks like it may keep him out of this North London Derby, and if so, Arsenal will need a replacement for his set piece threat. The centre back averages 0.73 shots per 90 and is the main danger in the air for the Gunners and in his absence, William Saliba is likely to take on this role. The Frenchman is not a prolific shooter at just 0.25 per 90 this season; however, when Gabriel was injured last season, he was much more prominent in the opposition box.

Spurs are giving up 3.64 shots from set pieces per game and conceded from a corner in this game last season. With 50% of the Gunners’ 20 league goals this season coming from set pieces, it’s a key part of their attacking armoury, and without the central player in this approach, in Gabriel, hopefully Saliba can step up to provide in his place.

Matty Cash just cannot stop shooting. The Poland right back’s confidence has clearly peaked after his goal at Sunderland, as he’s taken nine shots in eight starts since that game, landing this bet in seven of those. All 11 of his efforts in the Premier League have come from outside the bo,x and so he’s happy to have a go from range, and so we can trust him to pull the trigger at any given opportunity.

Leeds have only conceded nine shots per game at Elland Road; however, their two games against sides in the top six have seen them give up 27 attempts at goal. After a slow start, Villa are starting to come into form and after 16 shots against Bournemouth last time out in a 4-0 win, they should be ready to go on the attack once more.

Centre back Joe Rodon is one of Leeds’ biggest aerial threats and as such, the Welshman is averaging 0.73 shots per 90 this season and has already found his way onto the scoresheet twice. He’s the regular target for first contact from corners and throw-ins, with all eight of his shots coming from set plays and so he’ll get chances at every restart for the hosts.

Only West Ham have conceded more shots from set pieces in the Premier League this season than Aston Villa, with Unai Emery’s men giving up five shots per game from dead ball situations. They’ve allowed opposition centre backs to take four shots across their last four league games, and with Rodon so difficult to mark, he could well get another effort off in this one.

Kudus' foul data makes this price for two fouls in his first North London Derby an attractive one. He’s not been afraid to get stuck in for his new club, landing this bet in four of his last six starts and being booked on three occasions, and his personality makes him a likely candidate to lose his head in a raucous atmosphere. 

With Arsenal likely to dominate the ball and look to play out from the back, Spurs’ high press will be key to their defensive approach. Kudus will be instructed to be on Calafiori and Gabriel as soon as they touch the ball, and given how clumsy he is in the tackle, hopefully, he catches them late at least a couple of times.

Having had success backing Calafiori to be fouled in the last two gameweeks, we can continue to do so at this price. The Italian left back has forced late contact five times across his last five starts and at an average of 0.84 per 90. As mentioned in previous weeks, his replacement will be Myles Lewis-Skelly, who is heavily fouled, and if we include his data, this bet would have landed in nine of Calafiori’s last 10 starts.

Adding further weight to this selection is that Calafiori’s opponent is likely to be Mohammed Kudus, who is committing 1.64 fouls per 90 for Spurs this season. The Ghanaian loves a big game atmosphere and was recently booked in a London derby against Chelsea, and so we can rely on him to leave a foot in late on the Arsenal full back. 

Ezri Konsa has long been adept at winning fouls, and this season has averaged 1.42 fouls won per 90. He’s had an offence committed against him in seven of his last nine starts across all competitions and needs no encouragement to go down at the slightest contact.

Konsa will be up against either Dominic Calvert-Lewin or Lukas Nmecha, who have committed 1.46 and 1.64 fouls per 90, respectively this season. Whomever starts up top for the hosts can mix it physically with Konsa, and when we consider that across Leeds' last nine matches, opposition centre backs have drawn 21 fouls, Konsa is a must inclusion.

At the other end of the Elland Road pitch, Brendan Aaronson is being brought down on a regular basis this season. The winger has drawn 2.65 fouls per 90 this season, with at least two in seven of his eight league starts. He’s been particularly targeted at home, where he’s been felled over three times per game, and so the hosts will be looking for him to commit defenders as often as possible.

Up against Aaronson will be Villa’s left-hand side combination of Emiliano Buendia and Lucas Digne, who between them have made 3.19 fouls per 90 this season. The aforementioned Onana will also be covering down Aaronson’s wing, and given that he’s a regular offender too, it’s easy to see the American drawing at least two infringements.

After seeing a summer move to Inter Milan fall through, Lookman was left out of the squad for several weeks by Ivan Juric, whom he clashed with on his return. Raffaele Palladino has openly expressed his plans to have Ademola Lookman as a key player - the Nigeria international should play with a lot more freedom under the new manager.

Despite his struggles this season, Lookman is still averaging 2.93 shots per 90 from his ten appearances in all competitions, landing this bet in all eight matches in which he has started. The 28-year-old bagged a brace on his last visit to Naples, while he also scored in the reverse fixture on home turf.

Lookman has every reason to look forward to this clash against Napoli, and Palladino will have to get the most out of him if his side are to have any chance of taking something from the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium.

After his midweek heroics for his national side, helping Scotland secure a spot at the World Cup for the first time since 1998, Scott McTominay will have to shake off the hangover and return to domestic duties. The 24/25 Serie A MVP scored an incredible overhead kick against Denmark as his side secured a historic 4-2 win - he comes into this clash full of confidence.

McTominay has emerged as the primary threat for Napoli since Kevin De Bruyne picked up an injury - the Scottish international is averaging 2.34 shots per 90 in all competitions this season, and already has four goals to his name.

McTominay was on target against Atalanta when these sides last met in Bergamo - one shot was all he needed as the 28-year-old once again found the back of the net, helping his side to a 3-2 victory.

The November international break came at a good time for Napoli, who found themselves in a rough patch of form. They failed to win any of their three matches leading up to the break, with this selection landing in all of those matches.

Napoli have not quite been as dominant in recent matches, and Vanja Milinkovic-Savic has had his fair share of work to do in between the sticks. The Serbian international has landed this selection in seven of his last nine starts in all competitions, including the last six successive games.

Atalanta might not be in their best shape, but they do still have plenty of attacking firepower to cause problems for the hosts. They have forced at least two saves from the opposing goalkeeper in six of their last eight matches in all competitions, and Alex Meret made four saves when these sides last met.

There are a lot of unknowns surrounding the appointment of Raffaele Palladino - he led Fiorentina to a 6th-place finish in the 2024/25 season, securing a spot in the Conference League. However, he resigned from his role in 2025 in a surprising decision, but it wasn’t due to poor results. He will have a massive job on his hands reversing the fortunes of Atalanta, who have really struggled since the departure of Gian Piero Gasperini.

It’s not an easy debut fixture for Palladino, either. Napoli sit 4th in Serie A ju,st two points off Inter Milan at the top of the pile - already nine points above their weekend opponents. The Diego Armando Maradona Stadium has been a real fortress - Napoli have won five and drawn two of their seven matches there in all competitions this season. In fact, their last loss on home turf came back in December 2024 against Lazio.

Frenkie de Jong received a second yellow card in the dying embers of the game against Celta Vigo just before the international break, meaning the Dutchman will have to serve a one-match suspension here. His regular midfield partner Pedri is also out, leaving the Catalans slightly light on midfield options. 

Because of that, Marc Casado should reclaim his starting spot in midfield, potentially alongside either Fermin Lopez or Dani Olmo. Casado will have the destroyer role, with a lot more defensive responsibility. The 22-year-old is incredibly aggressive in his press, and can rack up fouls - he committed six fouls against Elche at the start of November, and was fortunate to escape a booking. 

He is averaging 2.06 fouls per 90 in all competitions this season, a slight increase from his 1.71 fouls per 90 average of last season, and he could be set for a massive role in the heart of midfield this weekend.

Marcus Rashford has been the unsung hero in this Barcelona squad this season, the Englishman has been in standout form since arriving from Man United. Rashford has six goals and seven assists to his name after 16 appearances in all competitions for the Catalans, landing this bet in 11 of his last 13 appearances in total. 

In fact, no Barcelona player has contributed more goals and assists than Rashford this season - Lamine Yamal is second with six goals and five assists. The 28-year-old has found his confidence once again, and is averaging 4.27 shots per 90 in all competitions this campaign. 

He has maintained that form on the international stage, too, picking up an assist for Harry Kane against Albania, despite only featuring for a 15-minute cameo off the bench. The winger is playing at the top of his game at the moment, and will hope to keep that run going against Athletic Club. 

After boasting the best defensive record in the Spanish top-flight last season, Athletic Club have regressed massively this term. They have kept just two clean sheets in their last 13 matches, which were against Real Oviedo and Elche - two newly-promoted sides.

Los Leones have struggled in the tougher matchups, losing against Arsenal, Newcastle and Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League by an aggregate score of 8-1. This matchup against Barcelona will be their toughest test of the season so far, and Ernesto Valverde’s men are certainly not in the best shape to compete.

The Catalans will be fired up for their return to Camp Nou, hoping to provide the 105,000-strong crowd some entertainment. Barcelona are averaging 3.91 goals per game in the Spanish top-flight this season, with over 2.5 goals landing in 11 of their 12 matches overall.

He will have an ideal opportunity to do so this weekend against an Athletic Club side who have really struggled this season. They currently sit 7th in the league with a record of five wins, two draws and five losses. Away form has been particularly worrying, as Los Leones have failed to win any of their last six matches in all competitions on their travels, losing five of those fixtures.

Worryingly, they have failed to score in four of those games, and with injuries to key attacking personnel, it seems unlikely for that to change. Oihan Sancet, Inaki Williams and Maroan Sannadi are all doubtful to feature this weekend, while Nico Williams has also been battling injury this season and has not started since August.

Athletic Club lost all three head-to-head encounters against Barcelona last season, which does not bode well for them here.

The bookmakers generally have Real Madrid up at a 94% chance of scoring in this game, and given they are averaging two goals per away game, that seems fair enough. 

In total, Xabi Alonso’s side has scored 26 goals in La Liga, with Kylian Mbappe scoring half of them, and assisting a further two. With a scoring rate of over a goal per game, we have to side with Mbappe to continue that form, despite Elche having only conceded three goals this season on home turf. The French striker is averaging just shy of five shots per 90, and 2.8 chances created per 90 minutes. He can be the difference maker again for Real.

Arsenal surely have to be strong favourites for this one against a Spurs side who don’t look convincing. They’re 5th in the table but 14th on expected points, whilst Arsenal are top on both metrics. You have to fancy Arsenal to score in this one, with Spurs without a clean sheet in their last seven outings.

I’m opting for an unsung hero in Leandro Trossard, who scored a scorching goal away at Sunderland last time out. The diminutive Belgian scored eight and assisted seven goals last season in just over 28 90s, and already has two of each early in this campaign from just over seven 90s.

Trossard scored the winner in this fixture last season while having three shots in the process, so he knows how to cause Pedro Porro and Spurs problems.

Both sides have faced early season issues, off the pitch for Sheffield Wednesday as they entered administration following issues with former owner Dephjon Chansiri and were deducted 10 points, whilst Sheffield United have performed a volte-face in the dugout, reappointing Chris Wilder after sacking Ruben Selles, who replaced Wilder in the Summer.

These games are usually cagey affairs, and whilst Wednesday have improved a little of late, they are still finding it difficult to record clean sheets, just one in the league this season. Callum O’Hare is the Blades player I want to side with, having scored four times and assisted twice, having started all 15 games.

That record has almost overtaken last seasons output already, so he is clearly in confident mood despite the form of the side. His dynamism gets him into good positions, we just need him to execute the killer pass or finish.

Action has been aplenty at both ends of the field when West Ham play, as they have seen an average of 12.46 corners per game in the Premier League this term. In fact, over 8.5 corners has landed in nine of their 11 games in total - there were seven corners in the game against Leeds, and eight corners against Everton, both misses went incredibly close to getting over this mark. 

Bournemouth games have been equally as active, with an average of 10.35 corners per game, with this bet landing in seven out of 11 overall. When these sides met last season, there were 18 corners at the Vitality Stadium in a 1-1 draw, with the hosts accounting for 12 of those. In the reverse fixture, there was also very little to split the two and it ended in a draw again, but there were 11 corners in total, comfortably exceeding this line.

Liverpool like to be aggressive in their press to win the back back high up the pitch, so their midfielders tend to rack up the fouls. That means Elliot Anderson has an excellent matchup for drawing fouls here, and improving on his stellar record this season. 

The England international has drawn the 3rd-most fouls of any Premier League player this term, averaging 2.93 fouls drawn per 90. In fact, this bet has landed in eight of his last nine matches, and in 11 out of 14 appearances in total. 

Anderson sees plenty of the ball in this Forest midfield, and has a tendency to go down softly to buy cheap free kicks. Against a side like Liverpool, he will need to do the same here to alleviate the pressure on his side and allow Forest to get a foothold on proceedings.

Dominik Szoboszlai will have to put the heartbreak of the international break behind him, as he returns to his domestic duties with Liverpool. The Hungary international will not be at the World Cup due to the Republic of Ireland's dramatic win in Budapest. He has been a key player for Liverpool in recent weeks and is likely to feature in an advanced midfield role at the weekend. 

Szoboszlai is averaging 1.98 shots per 90 this season in all competitions, but that total is weighed down as he featured on several occasions at right back. He has started the last three games in a more natural advanced midfield position, during which he has taken nine shots, and hit the target with seven of those. 

He has landed this bet in each of his last five matches in all competitions, and should once again find plenty of shooting chances if Forest are to sit deep. Szoboszlai does like to try his luck from distance, and tends to be accurate with his efforts.

It has been an underwhelming start to the season for Fulham, who have won just three of their opening 11 matches, putting them towards the bottom of the pile. To reflect their frustration, the Cottagers have committed the most fouls of any Premier League side this term. 

Raul Jimenez is averaging 2.52 fouls per 90 this season in all competitions, and has been a key contributor to that record. The Mexican international tends to press intensely from the front, and doesn’t shy away from a physical contest. 

He should find duels against Nordi Mukiele this weekend - the Sunderland defender has drawn a foul in seven of his nine matches this season since arriving from Bayer Leverkusen. The French international is averaging 1.0 fouls drawn per 90 this season, slightly lower than his average of 1.41 fouls drawn per 90 in the Bundesliga last term, highlighting how there is room for his current numbers to increase.  

Robin Roefs has been a key contributor in between the sticks for Sunderland, he ranks second of all Premier League goalkeepers for total saves made. He has started all 11 league matches for the Black Cats, during which he is averaging 3.5 saves per game, landing this bet in eight out of 11 overall. 

Fulham haven’t quite been at their best in the final third this season, but they have looked better on home turf. In fact, they have won three of their five matches at Craven Cottage, while taking just a single point from their six away matches. 

Sunderland have been happy to sit deep and invite pressure this season, meaning they rank fourth in the division for total shots conceded. Fulham will have to be front-footed in their approach this weekend as they become a bit desperate for points, which should bring Roefs into the game.

Sunderland pulled off an excellent result just before the international break as they secured a 2-2 draw against the league-leaders Arsenal. Prior to that match, the Gunners had won 10 matches on the bounce, and conceded just a single goal in that stretch. Mikel Arteta was halted in his tracks by the newly-promoted Sunderland, led by none other than Granit Xhaka. 

That result made it four games undefeated for the Black Cats, lifting them up to fourth in the standings - one point behind Chelsea, and three points behind Man City. 

The feeling around the Fulham camp is a total contrast - the Cottagers are just one point above the relegation zone, having lost five of their last six matches. Their one win in that stretch came against basement-dwellers Wolves, who are still yet to win a game, and they had a man sent off in the first-half in that game. 

Yasin Ayari has featured in all 11 league matches for Brighton this season, and that consistent game time has really benefited him. The Sweden international has been playing with a lot more attacking freedom this campaign, which is reflected in his shot counts. Ayari is averaging 2.06 shots per 90 in the Premier League and has accumulated more shots than any other Brighton player in the league this term. 

His average rises to 2.54 shots per 90 when playing at the Amex, where he has racked up 11 shots in his last three games alone. 

The 22-year-old has landed this bet in each of his last seven straight league games, including against the likes of Tottenham, Chelsea, Newcastle and Man United. He does have a tendency to let fly from distance - 15 of his 20 attempts in the Premier League have come from outside the box, while Ayari could also be on free kick duties.

With a total of 22 fouls committed after 11 Premier League starts, Igor Thiago ranks fifth out of all Premier League players this season for total fouls committed, only behind Sasa Lukic, Joao Gomes, Antoine Semenyo and Dan Burn. The Brazilian loves a physical contest and is averaging 2.14 fouls per 90, landing this selection in seven of his 11 starts.

That average rises to 2.96 fouls per 90 when playing away, as Thiago does often track back to pressure the opposing midfielders. The Brazilian has already picked up three yellow cards as well, a testament to his aggression in duels. He will be up against Jan Paul van Hecke at the weekend, which is a matchup to keep an eye on. The Dutchman is averaging 1.27 fouls drawn per 90, and does tend to hit the deck easily. 

Brighton have been the most ill-disciplined side in the Premier League so far, racking up a total of 28 yellow cards, which is the highest in the division. The Seagulls play an expansive style of football under Fabian Hurzeler, which can often leave them a bit exposed in transition, and forced into making cynical fouls. 

Brentford have also been an aggressive side, and their total of 23 yellow cards from 11 Premier League games ranks them sixth for total cards. They have seen a notable increase in the number of duels contested since Keith Andrews took over, which has led to more fouls and cards for the Bees. 

John Brooks will be the man in charge of this weekend clash - he has dished out 10 yellows and a red card from his three Premier League games this season. Brooks handed out an average of 4.5 cards per game last season, making him a good ref to back the overs. 

There wasn’t much to split these two when they last met on the south coast, as it finished in a goalless stalemate. The hosts were the better side, as they racked up 24 shots for 1.31xG, but they were kept out by Mark Flekken and Hakon Valdimarsson - the former made six saves, and the latter contributed two more saves from the bench. 

Brentford had the last laugh in the reverse fixture as they ran out 4-2 victors in West London, but a red card to Joao Pedro really influenced the game. This season, the Seagulls are unbeaten on home turf, having pulled off some impressive results against the likes of Man City, Tottenham and Newcastle. 

Meanwhile, Brentford have lost four of their five away matches in the league, with the only win coming against an out-of-sorts West Ham side, who currently sit in the relegation zone. 

Fiorentina have conceded more goals than any other side in Serie A this season (18 - 1.63 per game). 10 of these goals have been conceded across their five home games this term (2.0 per game) with Fiorentina still searching for their first win in Serie A this season.

Juventus have been steady without being spectacular on the road so far with two wins and two defeats from their five away trips this term. These games have produced nine goals (1.8 per game). Fiorentina come into this game having seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception of their 1-0 defeat to Lecce which should have produced more goals with a combined xG of 2.61 being generated on that occasion.

Both head to head meetings between these sides last season produced 2+ goals. Juventus failed to win either of these games, with Fiorentina claiming a 3-0 win in the home fixture and grinding out a 2-2 draw when they were the away side. 

David De Gea has been forced into making 36 saves across his 11 appearances in Serie A this season (3.27 per 90). He’s probably the only reason as to why Fiorentina don’t find themselves with a worse defensive record, though they have conceded more goals than any other side in Serie A this term (18) which gives us some insight into their defensive issues this season.

De Gea has been forced into making 3+ saves in seven of his 11 appearances in Serie A this term, including each of his last three matches in the Italian top flight. He’s also been forced into making seven saves across his two appearances in the Conference League this season (3.50 per 90) with De Gea impressively managing to maintain a 100% save percentage across these few matches.

Juventus rank first in Serie A for shots on target per game (5.60) which would suggest that they have the appropriate firepower to test De Gea on at least three occasions. Juventus have drawn 3+ saves from the opposition goalkeeper in nine of their 11 matches in Serie A this season. Five of these games have seen Juventus draw four or more saves from the opposition keeper.

This line is incredibly low, even for a side that is expected to be on the end of a hiding here when looking at the performances of both of these sides this season, and the bookmakers' pricing.

Freiburg are averaging 4.40 corners per game in the Bundesliga this season which is a healthy total to take into a match where they aren’t going to see much of the ball. Bayern’s incredible attacking output doesn’t occur without cost, they take a lot of risks with their high line which is displayed in the number of corners they’ve conceded at home this season (4.20 per game). 

Freiburg’s corner average on the road does drop to 2.80 corners per game, but I can’t escape the fact that this is quite a low line at 1.3 that Freiburg can meet when looking at their corner numbers this season - and when considering Bayern’s risk filled approach. 

Freiburg have won 2+ corners in eight of their 10 Bundesliga matches this season, and managed to rack up four corners in their 2-0 defeat to Bayern at the Allianz Arena last season. Bayern have conceded 2+ corners in nine of their 10 Bundesliga matches this season.

Bayern’s scoring power has been a joke so far this season with Vincent Kompany’s side netting 35 goals across their 10 matches in the German top flight this term (3.5 per game). 20 of these goals have come across their five home games (4.0 per game) with all of these games ending in wins for Bayern Munich.

Kane has benefited from this attacking approach with the 32 year old netting 13 goals in the Bundesliga across his 10 appearances. He’s excelled in all competitions so far this season with the Englishman netting 26 goals across his 22 appearances for Bayern Munich across all competitions. These metrics are only really rivalled by Erling Haaland when looking at other strikers in Europe, so Kane is well worth backing to find the back of the net here.

Kane netted twice against Albania for England over the international break, so he carries some momentum into this fixture despite being the first following a two week break from Bundesliga action. Kane scored home and away against Freiburg last season, and is on penalties for Bayern - making Kane a complete package to back to score here.

Blackburn have decent attacking metrics for a team languishing in 19th position in the league. Rovers actually sit inside the top six for xG generated, and whilst that hasn't quite translated into lots of shots on target, they rank 12th for this metric, it does show that they can get shots off from advantageous positions. They average 3.7 shots on target per match, so an average performance from them here would see the bet home.

However, there's more good news when looking at Rovers’ away data. They managed five shots on target in both of their last two away games at Bristol City and Leicester, and only twice in eight away matches have they failed to hit this line. Preston concede three shots on target per match on average, both home and away.

The Everton loanee is having a storming spell at Preston, commanding a first team place with box-to-box displays which hint at a big future in the game. Of course, Blackburn will have identified this themselves, and should have put in plans to prevent Armstrong from having too much of an influence over this match.

Sondre Tronstad should be back from a yellow card suspension, and Taylor Gardner-Hickman is likely to partner the Norwegian in Blackburn’s midfield, both players average over a foul per 90. If Axel Henriksson plays, this could be a shoo-in, as the Swede is running at 4.09 fouls per 90 and committed four last time out in a central midfield role.

Armstrong himself draws fouls on a regular basis. He is fouled 1.23 times per 90 in the Championship for Preston, and that is increasing. He was fouled three times against Southampton and four times against Birmingham. These two matches are two amongst five in the last six in which this bet collected.

Dobbin has been the player who has been able to fill in in a centre forward role whilst Preston suffer an injury and suspension crisis in that position. Often used wide in previous first team spells, Dobbin has been really effective in a central role working off a more traditional target man style forward, initially Daniel Jebbison, and now Michael Smith.

He has hit at least one shot on target in four of his five matches for Preston, hitting six of them in total. This comes from a very high shot count, 3.22 shots on average per 90 for Dobbin so far this season. He is trending just over 1 shot on target per 90 at the moment, but that is rising.

He has been accurate from distance on a number of occasions already this season too, which could help against a deep back three if Blackburn set up that way.

This bet works on both sides of the coin, Blackburn are a good team to follow for corners, while Preston tend to concede more than most teams.

Crossing is an integral part of Blackburn's game, indeed, they top the Championship for accurate crosses into the box so far this season, therefore, we can expect Valerien Ismael's side to try and rack up their corner tally.

This season, Rovers average 5.33 corners per match in the Championship. This average is helped by the 13 corners that they won last time out at home to Derby, but they have beaten this line in seven of their last eight Championship matches. Their average corners won away from home stands solid at 4.57, so still above the chosen line here.

Preston, on the other hand, concede 5.73 corners per match in the Championship this season. At home, this goes down to 5.13, which is still obviously above this line. This bet would have collected in seven of Preston’s eight home matches in the Championship this term.

One area where Excelsior could get some joy here is corners. They’re averaging 4.50 corners per game in the Eredivisie this season with this metric staying consistent when looking at their away matches (4.67 per game).

Ajax are conceding 5.17 corners per game in the Eredivisie, highlighting the issues they’ve faced when it comes to keeping the opponents corner count down. The general anxiety around Ajax at the moment isn’t helping this, with Ajax conceding 3+ corners in nine of their 12 matches this season - including in each of their last seven matches.

There is scope for Excelsior to come away with an even healthier corner count here when looking at how vulnerable Ajax are from these situations. Four of their six home matches have seen the opposition register at least four corners, with Ajax conceding six corners against Utrecht in their final game before the international break. 

Ajax parted ways with head coach Johnny Heitinga just before the international break, following a particularly poor start to their European campaign in which they lost all four of their matches, conceding 14 goals in the process and scoring just once.

Ajax have fared better in the Eredivisie with just two defeats from their 12 matches so far. Their main issue has been killing off games with the five draws they’ve registered this season being the joint most of any side in the Dutch top flight this term.

That being said, this is an opportunity for Ajax to start fresh following a few weeks away from the noise. Ajax have won four of their six home matches in the Eredivisie this season, netting 10 goals in the process.

Excelsior currently sit in the drop zone of the Eredivisie having won just three of their 12 games this season. They’ve conceded 23 goals across these matches with the majority of these being on the road (16 - 2.66 per game). This poor defensive record on the road has seen Excelsior win just one of their six away matches this term.

Villarreal have been the best side in LaLiga this season, outside of the usual battle that takes place between Real Madrid and Barcelona. Marcelino Garcia’s side sit third in LaLiga having won eight of their 12 matches, netting 24 goals across these matches (2.0 per game).

Their home record is just as impressive with five wins from their six matches. The majority of their goals have come at home as well with 16 scored across their six home games (2.66 per game). Only Real Betis have managed to take points off Villarreal in LaLiga so far this season in the form of a 2-2 draw - Betis are the only side yet to lose on the road in LaLiga this season.

Mallorca are scrapping towards the bottom of LaLiga and currently sit just two points above the relegation zone. They’ve really struggled on the road this season with just one win from their six matches, netting just seven goals across these games and conceding 12. Only Valencia (15) have conceded more goals on the road than Mallorca in LaLiga this season.

Mallorca should be unable to live with the scoring power of Villarreal who have been near unstoppable at home so far this season. The most recent meeting between the sides saw Villarreal run out 4-0 winners, with the home side here winning each of the last two head to head clashes. 

Joao Neves is the most combative of PSG's midfield trio and should continue to get stuck in here with PSG heavy favourites to come away with all three points. Joao Neves has committed four fouls across his six appearances in Ligue 1 this term (0.96 per 90) with PSG averaging 10.1 fouls per game - a marginal increase on the 9.00 fouls per game they averaged in Ligue 1 last term.

This is one of a few examples which highlights the slight drop off from PSG in the early parts of the season, a drop off which has been fuelled largely by fatigue and injury. They still sit top of the pile in Ligue 1, but their lead is a lot more precarious than it has been in recent campaigns with Marseille sitting just two points behind Luis Enrique's side.

PSG committed seven fouls when the sides clashed in Ligue 1 back in April. Joao Neves didn't feature on that occasion, though Desire Doue took on his midfield role and committed two fouls. Neves's main opponent here is likely to be Rassoul Ndiaye who has won 12 fouls across his nine starts in Ligue 1 this term (1.44 per 90). He'll also contest duels against Abdoulaye Toure (1.98 fouls won per 90) and Yassine Kechta (1.13 fouls won per 90) so there are plenty of candidates to tempt Neves into committing at least one foul here.

I was very surprised to see that PSG aren’t actually the current top scorers in Ligue 1 with Marseille leading the way having netted 28 goals across their 12 matches. PSG have still managed to score 24 goals across these matches (2.0 per game) and welcome an eccentric Le Havre side that have seen 30 goals across their 12 Ligue 1 games this term (2.5 per game).

Each of the last three head to head meetings, all taking place within the last year, have seen 3+ goals. PSG ran out 2-1 winners over Le Havre in the latest clash which saw the Parisians register an xG of 3.14 from 18 shots, 11 of which managed to find the target. The meetings in 2024 were also goal heavy, with PSG running out 4-1 winners after being held to a 3-3 draw by the away side here.

Le Havre have seen 14 goals across their six away matches in Ligue 1 this term (2.33 per game) and PSG are the perfect opponent to force a rise in this metric. PSG are starting to see key players return to the side, with Doue and Dembele in line to return at the end of the month, which should see PSG be able to contribute to the goal tally we require here. 

Morgan Gibbs-White has been a major source of shots for Nottingham Forest, averaging 2.60 shots taken per game across his last five Premier League games, taking two or more shots in each.

Across his 11 appearances this season, he has managed to hit two or more shots in nine of them, averaging 2.27 shots per game overall.

Hojbjerg has become an important player in this Marseille side, with his experience complementing the overall youthful nature of the squad very well. He has committed 13 fouls across his 12 Ligue 1 appearances this season (1.24 per 90), highlighting his combative nature and willingness to try and break up play before looking to platform some of Marseille's more effective players in the final third.

He's likely to line up against Sofiane Diop here, who has been Nice's brightest player so far this season with seven goal contributions across his 12 appearances in Ligue 1 this term. Diop has been hauled down 19 times across those games (2.41 per 90), highlighting his ability to win fouls with consistency.

Diop played in a central role behind two strikers in Nice's 2-1 defeat to Metz just before the international break and was fouled once. The more that Diop features in this role, the more his foul won record will benefit, as he is traditionally a winger, so he is very comfortable when it comes to manipulating the ball in tight areas and taking on players.

Enzo Fernandez is one of three players in the Premier League across Saturday's fixtures who has managed to get at least one shot on target in each of their past five games. Over those games, he has averaged 1.80 shots on target per game.

Extending this to his season as a whole, he has managed to hit the target in seven of his 10 Premier League games, averaging 1.10 shots on target per game.

Enzo Fernandez has managed to let off at least two shots in each of his last five Premier League appearances, averaging 3.40 shots per game during this period.

Of his 10 games this season, he has managed two or more shots in six, averaging 2.20 shots per game overall.

Wolves rank second for total fouls committed in the Premier League this season, averaging 13.5 infringements per game. Joao Gomes has been a key reason for that, as the Brazilian has racked up the second-most fouls of any Premier League player this campaign. Gomes is a player who looks to press intensely and not give his opponent a moments’ peace. His average of 2.74 fouls per 90 in all competitions this season is the highest in the Wolves squad. 

Fellow midfielder Marshall Munetsi is not too far behind, averaging 1.94 fouls per 90, and his total of 16 fouls from just eight league starts ranks him 11th for total fouls committed. 

Daichi Kamada will be up against those two in midfield this weekend, which is an ideal matchup for him to draw a foul. The Japanese international is averaging 1.22 fouls drawn per 90 this season in all competitions, rising to 1.39 when playing away.

Marcus Tavernier has committed at least one foul in each of his last five Premier League matches. He also averages 2.00 fouls committed per game, the 1+ line looks attackable for a bet builder.

There were a total of 10 goals scored across the two league meetings between these sides last season, and it finished 4-2 at Selhurst Park when they last met. Ismailia Sarr was central to his sides’ success, as he provided an assist, while he also managed three shots - two of those hit the target. In the reverse fixture at Molineux, he repeated that feat with another two shots on target, landing this selection comfortably. 

The Senegalese international bagged four goals in four games leading up to the international break, with a brace against Liverpool in the EFL Cup, and another brace against AZ Alkmaar in the Conference League. Sarr has three Premier League goals to his name after nine starts, and has been a serious threat in the final third this term.

Vitor Pereira’s final game in charge as Wolves boss was a 3-0 defeat at Craven Cottage. The hosts were helped by an early red card for Emmanuel Agbadou after just 36 minutes, and it was one-way traffic from there onwards. Wolves conceded a total of 19 shots, and Sam Johnstone was forced into four saves to keep the scoreline from getting out of hand. 

The English goalkeeper was also kept busy in the proceeding match against Chelsea, as he accrued five saves at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea accumulated 20 shots worth 3.31xG in that game, while Wolves mustered up a measly three shots worth 0.17xG in return. They struggled to get out of their own half for large parts of the game, allowing Chelsea to dominate. 

Crystal Palace should be looking forward to facing a Wolves side still licking their wounds, and the Eagles should be able to carve out some good chances.

Wolves fans couldn’t have envisioned a worse start for their club - now 11 games without a win in the Premier League, which has them rock bottom of the pile. They have scored just seven goals, giving them the unwanted title of the worst attacking unit in the league so far. The situation is just as dire at the back - with 25 goals conceded, they have also leaked the most goals, which underlines how Rob Edwards has a massive task at hand. 

Wolves lost five straight matches in all competitions leading up to the November international break, during which they conceded a total of 15 goals. There have been no signs of improvement at the back, which Crystal Palace will hope to exploit. The Eagles come into this match on a four-game unbeaten run in all competitions, maintaining a positive start to the season.

Now is the time for every team to turn things up and find something in the Championship. The run from the last international break of the year into the new year is often where coaches can really get hold of their teams and attain some level of consistency.

However, it is also the time that suspensions and injuries can start kicking in as well, so it'll often be beneficial for those who have the deepest squads in this period. Ipswich are one of the clubs with a very deep squad, and they seemed to hit some sense of form in the period just before the international break, winning three of their last four matches.

There is still some unexplained and unusual issue around their home results, drawing their last home match against Watford and leaving it late against West Brom before that, but the data shows that Ipswich have generally been putting in strong performances consistently, but not necessarily putting teams away efficiently. They have won the xG battle in all of their home league games, by an average of 2.23 v 0.86xG, a difference of 1.37xG per match, a number that is reminiscent of Leeds United last season, who had a magnificent home record.

Wrexham did find some results of their own in the period before the last international break, and are undefeated in their last five Championship matches. However, they actually have only won twice away from home in the league, the last of which was at Norwich on 20th September. Wrexham also have a heavily negative xG difference away from home, 0.81 v 1.79, almost a whole goals worth of chances per match down against their hosts.

Derby are on a roll. It has been mentioned a few times in this column this season that Derby were failing to reflect John Eustace’s usual style of being very difficult to beat, especially at home, but the Rams have definitely righted that now, and have won their last five Championship matches - including their last three at home.

Similarly to their last home game though, when this column put up this same winning bet against Hull City, Derby’s visitors are a bit more chaotic in their form both in attack and defence.

Watford have seen this bet collect in their last five Championship matches, and in eight of their last nine. The Hornets will be very keen to improve a woeful away record so far this season, they have yet to win away from Vicarage Road this term, but they have averaged over 1xG per away match.

Derby have had a couple of 1-0s at home, but generally they have given more chances away than the goal line here would have us believe. They actually concede 1.22xG per home match, whilst creating 1.12xG themselves, so over 1.5 goals looks a good angle here.

Kieran Trippier is in for a long and laborious evening here, as he’s set to line up against Jeremy Doku. Doku has matured into one of the best wingers in Europe, he’s always been electric to watch, but lacked end product and composure in previous campaigns, which is something that he appears to have rectified this season.

His performance against Liverpool just before the international break was one of the most memorable from a winger in recent memory. He tormented Conor Bradley throughout the contest, managing to tempt the young fullback into committing a foul and picking up a yellow card. Bradley contested 13 duels in that game, with Doku being a handful throughout, which is what we can expect from him at St James’ Park here.

Trippier has picked up just one yellow card so far this season, which is quite surprising when considering his overall temperament and tendency to lash out. He’s committed 13 fouls across his nine Premier League appearances this season (1.67 per 90), which is more in line with the aggression we expect from the fullback.

I’ve enjoyed watching Malick Thiaw for Newcastle so far, I wasn’t quite sure how he would adapt to the intense speed of the game in the Premier League having come over from Serie A, but he looks like a natural fit for the division. He’s struck up a decent partnership with Sven Botman, with Newcastle currently dealing with a variety of injuries to their backline.

One of Thiaw’s key attributes is his aerial ability. He has won 75% of the aerial duels he’s contested in the Premier League this season, suggesting that he is a player that can be a real threat from set pieces for Newcastle. Man City have shifted to a more physical approach this term, but they still are far from the biggest side in the world, which is something that Newcastle can look to exploit.

Newcastle also look to be more willing to make the most of this strength than AC Milan did, with Thiaw already matching his shot count from last season this term (7 - 1.00 per 90). Two of these attempts have found the target, both in home matches against Nottingham Forest and Arsenal.

Phil Foden is slowly growing back to his best form after an off season last campaign, which is a tag that can be applied to the squad as a whole. Foden registered a rare goal contribution for England from the bench against Serbia during the international break, setting up Eberechi Eze’s superb goal to wrap up the three points for the Three Lions.

Foden has registered two goal contributions in the Premier League this season, which have come against Bournemouth and Man United. He appears to benefit from the inclusion of Rayan Cherki in the starting XI, with Doku’s electric form also allowing Foden to feel more settled in the side.

Outside of Erling Haaland, City really don’t carry much of a goal threat, so players like Foden need to step up with the type of tally he produced in the 23/24 season, where he netted 27 goals and provided 12 assists. He’s registered 11 goal contributions overall across his 18 appearances in all competitions (7 goals, 4 assists).

Donnarumma has been one of the more interesting summer signings to watch so far this season, as his inclusion coincides with City changing their overall style of play. Donnarumma was likely brought in for his dominance of his six yard box, which is invaluable in a league that has become obsessed with set-pieces.

He’s been forced into making 15 saves across his eight Premier League matches (1.88 per game), maintaining a save percentage of 78.9% - the second highest of any goalkeeper in the Premier League this season behind Sunderland’s Robin Roefs (79.6%).

Newcastle may not rank highly among many attacking metrics this season, but have managed to draw 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in eight of their 11 Premier League matches. This includes four of their five home matches, with the exception of their 3-2 defeat against Liverpool, which was a contest in which they were reduced to 10 men.

All four head-to-head meetings that have taken place between these sides since January last year have seen 2+ goals. Man City most recently ran out 4-0 winners over Newcastle when the sides clashed at the Etihad back in February, with Omar Marmoush netting a hat-trick on that occasion.

Newcastle have seen 2+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions. They lost 3-1 against Brentford on the road just before the international break, leaving the Magpies 14th in the table and in desperate need of a positive result.

Their games at St James’ Park have been entertaining, with their five matches producing 14 goals (2.8 per game). Four of Newcastle’s five games at St James’ Park this season have seen 2+ goals.

City hit a strong vein of form just before the international break, winning each of their last four matches, with each of these games producing 2+ goals. City have seen 11 goals across their five away matches in the Premier League this season (2.2 per game).

Joelinton has matured into one of the most reliable Premier League central midfielders after initially joining the club as a striker. His transition to midfield, assisted by Eddie Howe, has been one of the numerous success stories under the former Bournemouth coach that show Eddie Howe to be an elite developer of talent. 

He’s won nine fouls across his nine Premier League appearances this term (1.24 per 90), with at least one foul won in four of his last five matches in the top flight. He’ll be up against a Man City side that don’t commit many fouls as a team, though his individual opponent in Nico Gonzalez can be reckless.

Gonzalez picked up a yellow card just before the international break in City’s 3-0 win over Liverpool, marking his third caution of the season already. He’s committed nine fouls across his six starts in the league this term (1.25 per 90). Gonzalez has developed well since he signed, but I still think that he’ll struggle to contend with the physicality of Newcastle’s midfield, which can lead to him, or one of his midfield partners, dragging Joelinton down at least once.

Erling Haaland confined his stellar form this season over the international break with back-to-back braces for Norway against Estonia and Italy. Haaland had five shots on target across these games, highlighting just how much of a threat he is in the penalty box at the moment.

Haaland had netted five goals across his five appearances in all competitions just before the international break, and he shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon, with City now being a side that has been constructed to suit his main strengths. Guardiola hasn’t been naive to the shift in direction of the Premier League, and has adapted his team accordingly, with Haaland being the main benefactor.

Haaland has had 27 shots on target across his 11 Premier League appearances this season (2.56 per 90). This is more than any other player in the Premier League. Haaland has had 2+ shots on target in eight of his 11 Premier League appearances this season, too.

It’s also worth noting that Haaland has had a hand in 15 of Manchester City’s 23 goals in the Premier League this season (65%). This further highlights how much City’s approach is centred around the forward.

Only Aston Villa (148) have won more fouls than Chelsea (136) in the Premier League so far this season. The Blues have won 13+ fouls in eight of their 11 Premier League games this term, and are likely to tempt the Clarets into committing a similar number here.

Burnley won’t have the ball for long periods in this clash despite being the home side. Scott Parker’s side unsurprisingly rank bottom for possession in the Premier League this season (38.4% per game), which is a metric that tells us that Burnley are familiar with not having the ball and won’t have too many issues with being the passive side here.

Burnley have committed 12+ fouls in just three of their 11 Premier League matches this season, but this selection is driven more by Chelsea’s strong ability to win fouls, which should force a rise in the number of fouls that the Clarets commit. Burnley committed 15 fouls against Aston Villa in their recent clash against Unai Emery’s side, which is similar to the foul volume we can expect from them here.

I’ve been banging on about the fact that Ugochukwu has been playing higher up for Burnley for a few weeks now, and it finally looks like the bookies have caught up. This was priced at 6.0 before the international break when the Clarets took on West Ham - Ugochukwu had four shots in that game with one of those attempts finding the target.

He’s lining up against his former club here, so we can expect an extra layer of motivation for the Frenchmen here who has scored two Premier League goals since being moved to a more advanced role. Ugochukwu has had 10 shots across his 593 minutes of Premier League action this term (1.52 per 90), with three of those attempts finding the target (0.46 per 90).

Burnley’s opportunities will be limited here, but Ugochukwu can be involved in the few forays forward that the Clarets enjoy in this clash.

The next few weeks will give us a first real opportunity to look at Liam Delap in a Chelsea shirt following a period on the sidelines for the 22-year-old, who sustained an unfortunate injury at the start of the season after a few promising cameos. 

I think Delap will be invaluable to Chelsea in these sorts of matches. Chelsea haven’t had a successful striker since Diego Costa, who signed 10 years ago now, but Delap is in the mould that suits a Chelsea forward. He reminds me quite a bit of Costa; physical, a bit of a hot head and a real handful for defenders, as well as being a clear target in the box, which is something that the Blues have lacked against low blocks in recent seasons.

Delap can be the player to end the striker curse at Chelsea, and he benefits the side with his strength and hold-up play. Delap’s main strength may end up actually being how he unlocks the other players in this Chelsea side. If you look at Chelsea’s 5-1 win over West Ham earlier in the campaign, then you will see the real benefit that the former Man City man provides to the side - particularly to Joao Pedro, who has struggled in the line striker role in Delap’s absence.

Delap netted 12 Premier League goals for an Ipswich side that got relegated last season, so there is no reason why he cannot emerge with a similar tally from here, with a higher quality of players around him.

Chelsea are a promising young side, but that always comes with the risk of breeding petulance in a squad, and we’ve already seen a bit of that this season. Chelsea’s flurry of red cards at the start of the campaign will have caught the headlines, but this has been a longstanding issue for the Blues.

Chelsea have ranked top in the Premier League for yellow cards in each of the last two seasons, collecting 105 in 23/24 and 99 in 24/25. The squad is now almost completely unrecognisable from the one that lined up in 23/24 under Mauricio Pochettino, but the youthful nature has remained, which explains why Chelsea are consistently at the top of this count. 

There are, of course, other young sides in the Premier League who don’t end up with such high card counts, but my explanation for that is that the Chelsea players are under a unique pressure for their age, with the Blues still expected to challenge for big trophies, despite the youthful profile of the squad. 

This is a game where Chelsea could grow particularly frustrated as Burnley can be quite stubborn in their shape and organisation - the last thing you’d want to face in a first game back after the international break. Chelsea have picked up 2+ cards in seven of their 11 Premier League matches this season - notably in all but one of their away games this season (v West Ham).

Chelsea remain one of the top sides in the Premier League when it comes to winning corners. In truth, if you want to be battling at the top of the Premier League at the moment, then you need corners as a part of your arsenal. The English top-flight appears to have returned to its roots this season, with direct and physical football the norm, with set pieces playing a massive role.

Chelsea have won 71 corners in the Premier League this season (6.45 per game), which is the 2nd-highest tally in the division, behind Arsenal (75 - 6.81 per game). This should be the perfect game for Chelsea to meet, or even exceed, their average for the season, with Burnley expected to sit in a stubborn low block, which the Blues may have issues breaking down.

Chelsea have had 5+ corners in 10 of their 11 matches in the Premier League this season. The only game in which they didn’t manage to cover this line was their 3-0 win on the road against Nottingham Forest. Chelsea have had more than five corners in six of those matches, so higher markets for Chelsea are worth exploring, as are match corner markets, as Burnley can also pose a set piece threat.

Fernandez has won 12 fouls across his 10 Premier League appearances this season (1.22 per 90), with the Blues ranking 2nd overall in the Premier League when it comes to winning fouls (136 - 12.3 per game). Only Aston Villa (148 - 13.4 per game) have won more fouls as a team than Chelsea this season, with the Blues winning 13+ fouls in eight of their 11 matches.

Fernandez is likely to line up against a Burnley trio that will be forced deep and to do the majority of the dirty work as the main guard to a vulnerable backline, which has already conceded 22 goals this term. This should see the Argentine challenged frequently when he tries to find a creative solution through Burnley’s low block.

Josh Cullen has been a consistent performer for Burnley so far this season with the 29-year-old featuring in all 11 matches for the Clarets in the Premier League. Scott Parker appears to have landed on a preferred midfield trio of Cullen, Florentino and Lesley Ugochukwu, with the latter pushing on slightly ahead of Cullen and Florentino, who sit a little deeper.

Cullen has committed seven fouls across his 11 Premier League appearances this season (0.67 per 90). It’s also worth noting that Cullen has played nearly every minute for Burnley this season (940). 

The seven fouls that Cullen has committed this season have been spread across seven of his 11 Premier League matches, with the Irishman committing at least one infringement in each of his last six Premier League matches.

There’s a real chance for the streak to extend here with Chelsea being one of the best sides in the Premier League this season when it comes to winning fouls. The Blues have won 13+ fouls in eight of their 11 Premier League matches. Cullen’s direct opponent here is likely to be Joao Pedro, who has been afforded the luxury of dropping into a deeper role, facilitated by the return of Liam Delap. Joao Pedro has won 22 fouls across his 11 Premier League appearances this term (2.12 per 90).

Gonzalez is a player who has been good to us in recent weeks. The Spaniard appears to have settled into his role in Pep Guardiola’s set-up and has drawn five fouls across his last three domestic starts. He’s averaging 88 touches of the ball per game and so will get plenty of attention from Newcastle’s combative midfield, and should be able to draw late contact at least once.

In that Newcastle midfield will be Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton, who average 4.52 fouls per 90 between them, and so there should be lots of opportunities for Gonzalez to go down. Across the Magpies last six matches in all competitions, opposition central midfielders have been fouled 16 times, so it’s clearly an area of the pitch where we can expect plenty of infringements.

Marseille are keeping pace with PSG at the summit of Ligue 1 which is no easy task given the dominance that the Parisians have had in their domestic division for the last 10 years. After 12 matches, Marseille sit two points behind PSG with a superior goal difference, and notably the best home record of any side in the division.

Their six away matches have produced 12 goals (2.0 per game) with BTTS landing in two of those matches, but Nice have shown a tendency to be involved in high scoring encounters, especially at home. 

Nice have netted 10 goals across their six home matches this term with their home games seeing 2.5 goals per game overall. Nice have seen BTTS in eight of their 12 games in Ligue 1 this season, suggesting that their defence is vulnerable to this Marseille attack which has netted more goals than any other side in the league (28).

Despite his sides’ struggles this season, Jarrod Bowen has continued to operate at a high level, and has been an incredibly consistent performer. The English international has three league goals to his name, the joint-most in the Hammers’ squad, while he has also contributed an assist - without him, West Ham’s situation would be a lot worse. 

Bowen is averaging 2.36 shots per 90 in the Premier League this term, and has landed this bet in 10 out of 11 matches in total. The winger tends to be incredibly accurate with his attempts, and has hit the target with 46% of his shots this campaign. 

The only game he failed to land this selection was against Arsenal at the Emirates - arguably the toughest matchup in the league. West Ham managed just four shots as a team, but they should find a lot more success against Bournemouth this weekend.

It has been a contrasting season for these sides so far - Bournemouth started the campaign hot, having lost just one of their opening nine Premier League matches. However, they suffered back-to-back defeats prior to the November international break, losing 3-1 against Man City at the Etihad, and 4-0 at Villa Park. 

Meanwhile, West Ham won just one of their first nine league matches, which had them firmly placed within the danger zone. But, they did pick up a bit of momentum before the break, with a 3-1 victory against Newcastle on home turf, before taking another three points against Burnley last time out. 

The Hammers are yet to keep a clean sheet this season, with over 1.5 goals landing in all 11 of their top-flight matches so far. West Ham have seen 36 goals in their Premier League games, while Bournemouth have seen 35 - neither side has been particularly convincing at the back, which lends itself to backing goals.

Anfield can be a daunting away day, as most teams who have played there can attest to, but Forest fared well in this matchup last season. They took four points from the Reds, holding on to a 1-0 win on Merseyside, before taking a point from the City Ground. 

A lot has changed for the Tricky Trees since then, but Sean Dyche is likely to adopt a similar approach to those games, setting up his side in a compact defensive low block, looking to play on the counter. The former Everton manager has plenty of experience against Liverpool, and will hope to replicate Forest's success against them in the previous campaign. 

This selection landed in both head-to-head encounters last season, as Allison made exactly two saves at Anfield, and in Nottingham too. The Brazilian could be in contention to return to the starting eleven here, even if he doesn't, Giorgi Mamardashvili has been kept very busy in his absence.

Liverpool have already lost their undefeated home record this season, as they were beaten by Man United earlier in October via a late Harry Maguire header. It has been an uncharacteristically poor run of form for Liverpool in recent weeks, but they have had a very tough run. 

Liverpool have lost seven of their last 10 matches in all competitions, facing the likes of Man City, Real Madrid, Aston Villa and Chelsea in that run. Additionally, six of those matches were on the road. Of their four matches at Anfield, Liverpool beat both Real Madrid and Aston Villa, while they lost against Crystal Palace and Man United. It is worth mentioning, in that EFL Cup game against the Eagles, Arne Slot opted for significant rotation. 

Controversial refereeing decisions were the main talking point against Man City just before the international break, but Liverpool did look much better prior to that. They can get back on track here.

This season, Ansgar Knauff and Jean-Matteo Bahoya have been used interchangeably by Dino Toppmoller - the former played second fiddle at the start of the season, benched for Bundesliga games, but the roles have been reversed in recent weeks. Knauff has started the last five straight league games, and is usually replaced by Bahoya late on. 

Knauff typically starts on the left-wing, but has been used as the main focal point in some games, usually when Frankfurt will have to play on the break. However, the Eagles should see plenty of the ball here, meaning Jonathan Burkardt should start up front, and Knauff out wide. 

The 23-year-old is averaging 2.51 shots per 90 this season, with a notable increase when playing on the left. He enjoys playing off Burkardt, who is a more physical target man striker, which allows Knauff to look to break in behind.

Koln have the record of two wins, one draw and two losses in all competitions at home this season, but goals have been consistent. In fact, BTTS has landed in every match at the Rhein Energie Stadium this term, including against Bayern Munich. Koln have provided the entertainment for their home games, and goals is a target market on Saturday evening. 

Frankfurt have been the most progressive side in the Bundesliga so far, averaging 4.2 goals per game. Action has been aplenty at both ends of the field, as the Eagles have scored 23 goals, but also conceded 19 in return, ranking them the fourth-worst defensive unit, despite sitting in seventh. Koln are quite some way behind, but their average of 3.2 goals per game also highlights how they are much more comfortable going forward, than they are at the back.

Frankfurt haven’t lost in regular time in any of their last five matches. In that run, they have conceded just five goals, so have every reason to approach this match with confidence. The Eagles have lost five matches this season in all competitions, which came against Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Atletico Madrid and Union Berlin - a lot of tough matchups. They do tend to be effective at securing points when they come in as pre-match favourites, so will hope to keep that trend going. 

Meanwhile, Koln were beaten 3-1 by Borussia Monchengladbach just before the international break, allowing them just their second win of the season. That result means Koln have lost five of their last eight matches coming into this clash, which is not a record which bodes well for them.

Salah has endured a quiet start to the season by his own exceptional standards, but that quiet start has still produced four goals and two assists, which have only been bettered by four players. He and his Merseyside team-mates have had plenty of time to stew on their 3-0 defeat at Man City, where they were barely in the game.

They host Nottingham Forest at Anfield, where they are currently averaging two goals scored per game. The Tricky Trees are yet to record a victory away from home, and have scored just twice away from the City Ground. A possible route to goal for Salah will be from the penalty spot, with Nottingham Forest having conceded three penalties this season, the most in the league.

Danny Welbeck may have a bee in his bonnet about not making the latest England squad, despite being the highest-scoring Englishman in the Premier League so far this term. His best top-flight return is 10, which he achieved last season, so he is well on track for a record campaign, if he can avoid the injuries which have blighted his career at crucial times.

Brighton host Brentford, who Sunderland aside, have perhaps been the surprise package thus far, having managed to maintain a level many expected to drop following the replacement of Thomas Frank with Keith Andrews. These two sides are level on points, with the Seagulls proving a little harder to beat and not as erratic as the Bees. Brentford have kept just two clean sheets, against Villa and West Ham, when both were at their lowest ebb.

Bournemouth will be hoping to bounce back after heavy defeats at Manchester City and Aston Villa in recent weeks, when they host West Ham, who are fresh from two home wins on the bounce. I still want to be against West Ham as I’m not sure wins over a poor Newcastle side and Burnley add up to much. 

My first thought for a Bournemouth player was Antoine Semenyo, but he left the Ghana squad early with a niggling injury, which obviously makes him a doubt for the weekend. I have also been with Eli Junior Kroupi, but he lost his place to Evanilson last time out, unjustly in my view, so we cannot be sure if he’ll be back in here. 

I have ended up with Marcus Tavernier, who has started 10 of 11 league games for Bournemouth this season. His numbers are unremarkable, one goal and two assists, but I think The Cherries can get at West Ham from set pieces, and Tavernier is responsible for swinging them in from the right, even scored direct from one against Nottingham Forest. West Ham have conceded the most goals and shots from set pieces, so this looks a good route to a Tavernier assist..

Chelsea have rotated their starting line-up a lot this season, but Portuguese winger Pedro Neto has started all 11 league games for The Blues, scoring three goals and registering two assists.

Enzo Maresca’s side travel to Burnley, and it is against this kind of opposition that Neto tends to thrive. Four of his five goal contributions have come against the bottom three teams, West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Wolves. Burnley are currently 17th, but 20th in the xG table, and allow 2 xG against (xGA) per game on average. Their xGA is 7.1 goals worse than the next poorest, Nottingham Forest.

Neto was not on international duty with Portugal, citing a small muscle problem, but has been pictured in training this week, so he should be okay to feature here, fresher than those who have been away.

Notts County were starting to become a bit of a dark horse for promotion before slipping up at home to Harrogate last weekend, needing a last minute penalty to salvage a point. They did, however, have the excuse of two days fewer rest than their opponents. BTTS Yes has landed in 11 of their 16 games so far, just as it did Last Saturday.

They welcome Colchester United to Meadow Lane here, fresh from an impressive 0-2 win at Walsall. The U’s have won four of their last six, including beating Grimsby and Chesterfield, so will fancy themselves to claim another scalp and keep climbing up the division.

10 of their 16 games have seen both teams score, and whilst only four have them have been away, County have scored in every home game this season, so they will need to find the net at least once you feel, to come away with any points.

We’ve had success in recent weeks in this column by getting against Plymouth, and with them propping up the division having lost six consecutive games across all competitions, it feels a safe angle to take them on again. Tom Cleverley is clinging to his job, with his Argyle side falling to defeat in six of their eight away league games this season; a loss at Port Vale could be the final nail in his coffin.

In Vale, we have a side who are just two places above their visitors in the league table; however, all of their underlying data suggests they are a much stronger side. The Valiants have underperformed their expected goals count by a huge 10 goals, which shows that they are creating enough chances to win games, but poor finishing has seen them failing to convert those chances into wins. Only two sides have conceded fewer expected goals than the hosts, and so their process is strong at both ends, and if they continue this level of performance, results should begin to fall into place.

Sat 4th in the League One form table across the last 10 games, Burton Albion have climbed into the top half of the standings and are looking far from relegation candidates under Gary Bowyer. The Brewers are unbeaten in their last four league games, having won three of those and have been beaten just once on the road since August. They won away at high-flying Bradford last time they were on their travels and have also beaten Wimbledon and Cardiff away from home, and so a tripto a poor Exeter side should hold no fear.

The hosts have only won twice in league action since August and have failed to win in four of their last five at St James Park. The Grecians are hovering just above the dreaded drop zone and are sitting 23rd in the aforementioned form table, and so are clearly on a downward trajectory.

Usually associated with offences of his own, Wolves forward Jorgen Larsen has been fouled 0.89 times per 90 this season, and has drawn at least one foul in six of his eight league starts. New manager Rob Edwards will demand plenty of physical work from the Norwegian, and he’ll no doubt relish the constant physical duels.

Up against Larsen will be Palace’s defensive trio of Maxence Lacroix, Chris Richards and Jaydee Canvot, with Marc Guehi likely to miss out with injury. That trio have committed over three offences per 90 between them across all competitions this season, and so will be happy to mix it physically with Larsen, in what looks to be an intriguing battle.

After celebrating Scotland’s first World Cup qualification since 1998 in midweek, we can expect Andrew Robertson to have a slightly sore head on Saturday. The left back has committed 0.96 infringements per 90 across all competitions this season, and added a further two for his country on Tuesday, so is in decent fouling form. 

Robertson will face the difficult task of shackling Dan Ndoye who, having been fouled 4.23 times per 90 in Serie A last season, had been struggling to re-produce those numbers in England. However, the Swiss winger appears to have been re-energised by Sean Dyche, and has drawn 1.67 per 90 under his new boss, with his opposition left back making at least one foul in each of Forest’s last 11 games, Robertson will do well to avoid bringing him down.

Another angle that has been profitable for us in recent weeks has been backing defenders against Brentford to be fouled. The Bees front line of Igor Thiago, Dango Ouattara and Kevin Schade have now committed 5.99 fouls per 90 between them, with the majority being as part of a high press, and therefore on opposition defenders. Across Brentford’s last six games in all competitions, opposing centre backs have been brought down 16 times, and so it makes sense to target a Brighton player in that role.

Lewis Dunk is a mainstay in the Seagulls’ backline and whilst he’s only drawn three offences all season, his average of 0.5 per 90 during the last campaign is more promising. As the stronger centre back aerially, Dunk will be tasked with containing Thiago who loves a clumsy duel in the air and with such consistent numbers for centre backs against Brentford, we have to take this price.

Mr Reliable Dan Ballard continues to be impossible to stop for opposition defences. He’s taking 1.86 shots per 90 in the Premier League, landing this bet in every appearance other than against Burnley, where he played just nine minutes. His goal against Arsenal last time out showed he’s equally adept with his feet as he is in the air, and he should be full of confidence going into this game.

Five losses from six games have sent Fulham hurtling towards the relegation dogfight, and their concession of over 12 shots per game in that spell will be of concern for Marco Silva. The Cottagers are allowing their opponents 3.91 shots from set pieces on average, and Michael Keane’s goal from a corner for Everton against them in their last game will have Ballard licking his lips.

Left back Adrien Truffert has settled well into Premier League life and has shown plenty of attacking intent in recent weeks, taking a shot at goal in four of his last five games. Most of his shots have come from open play, but he’s also a threat from set pieces, and his average of 0.75 shots per 90 in Ligue 1 last season shows he’s capable of maintaining this form. 

Only Burnley are conceding more shots than West Ham, who are shipping 15.7 per game on the road. The Hammers are showing no signs of improvement at the back under Nuno Espirito Santo, for whom they’ve given up 16 shots per game, and with Bournemouth so strong going forward, that’s unlikely to change this weekend.

Marc Cucurella has been a constant attacking threat for Chelsea under Enzo Maresca, as he’s encouraged to get forward whenever possible, averaging 0.95 shots per 90 with him in charge. The Spanish left back has taken a shot in six of his last eight Premier League appearances, and in three of his last four away games.

Despite being at home, Burnley will likely sit deep and try to contain Chelsea, giving Cucurella complete freedom to attack. The Clarets have conceded a league high 16.8 shots per game on home soil and have allowed eight shots from opposition left backs across their last nine games. Cucurella should get plenty of chances to try his luck. 

This is an important game for Celtic, with the Hoops currently seven points adrift of SPFL leaders Hearts. Celtic do have a game in hand on the league leaders, and will need to make it count to prevent Hearts from taking a healthy lead at the top of the table, heading into a busy Christmas period.

Celtic have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions. They ran out 4-0 winners over Kilmarnock last time out, and will need to carry that scoring power into this encounter. St Mirren have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, mostly recently losing 3-0 to Hibernian at home. 

Celtic have struggled for consistency on the road this season, with their five away matches only producing two wins, with 11 goals across these games (2.2 per game). Celtic’s inconsistency on the road this term opens up the door for St Mirren to contribute to what should be a high goal tally here. 

PSV lead the way in the Eredivisie and are closely being stalked by Feyenoord, as they look to defend their league title which they clinched from the grasp of Ajax in the most dramatic fashion last season.

Unsurprisingly, PSV have been dominant on the road in the Eredivisie so far this season - winning all six of their matches, with these games producing 28 goals (4.66 per game). Five of these matches have seen 3+ goals, with the exception being their 2-0 win over Twente in the very early weeks of the campaign.

Breda have earned 10 of their 12 points at home this season, so we can expect them to carry an attacking threat in this game. Breda have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with their six home games producing 15 goals this term (2.5 per game).

It feels like I back Bayern Munich every week for high scoring affairs, but their attacking numbers are unmatched by any other side in Europe, so Vincent Kompany’s side have been a safe bet when it comes to goals - especially when playing at the Allianz Arena.

Bayern have scored 35 goals in the Bundesliga this season, with 20 of these goals coming across their five home matches (4.0 per game). Unsurprisingly, Bayern have managed to win all of these matches, with many sides in the Bundesliga really struggling to cope with this level of scoring power.

3+ goals landed in the most recent head-to-head clash between these sides, which ended in a 2-1 win for Bayern. No side has been as clinical as Bayern in the final third in the Bundesliga, or across Europe as a whole. Freiburg can also contribute to the goal count here, having seen 3+ goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions. This includes their last two matches, which they’ve managed to win 3-1 and 2-1.

Crawley’s recent matches have been really hectic, with each of their last five seeing over 2.5 goals. They’ve won two of these matches, with their most recent assignment being a 2-2 draw against Gillingham.

They take on an Accrington side that have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, avoiding defeat across all of these outings. They come into this game following a 2-1 win over Bristol Rovers, which was a result that has lifted them away from the threat of relegation for now.

Crawley’s eight home games in League Two this season have produced 21 goals (2.6 per game). This represents a crucial match for both sides, with them separated by just one point towards the bottom of League Two. 

Relegation from the football league is a near impossible situation to bounce back from, so both sides will want to put as much distance between themselves and the drop zone as possible, before the crucial run in period at the end of the season.

Dundee United have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception being a 2-0 defeat to Motherwell. United have only managed to win one of these games, so they’re still looking for their scoring power to translate into results - though their recent matches have included 1-1 draws against both Hearts and Rangers on the road.

Falkirk have also seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception being a 4-0 loss to Celtic away from home. Only two points separate these sides in the SPFL, so we can expect a pretty even encounter here, with Dundee United having the opportunity to leapfrog Falkirk if they can collect all three points.

Only the three bottom sides in the SPFL have conceded more goals than Falkirk this season (21). Dundee United have a pretty even split when it comes to the goals they’ve seen in their matches this season as well (18 scored, 17 conceded - 3.18 per game).

Volendam have only lost one of their six home games in the Eredivisie this season, with these games producing 18 goals (3.0 per game). They’ve netted 11 of these goals, so we can expect them to carry a scoring threat here against a Twente side that can be a bit chaotic in their away fixtures.

Twente have won two of their six away games in the Eredivisie this season, with these games producing 19 goals (3.16 per game). Twente have seen BTTS in four of these matches, showing how their vulnerability to conceding goals on the road has directly impacted their overall away record in the Dutch top flight this season. This is not an issue only resigned to their away matches, with Twente conceding 18 goals so far this season - the second most of any side in the top 10 of the Eredivisie. 

The most recent meeting between these sides produced a notable nine goals and saw BTTS, as Twente ran out 7-2 winners. They are unlikely to be as convincing in victory here as the away side, but it’s an example of the type of high scoring encounter we could see.

Tranmere come into this game having seen BTTS in each of their last five matches across all competitions. They’ve managed to win two of these games, with victories over Blackpool and Cheltenham.

MK Dons have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions, with the away side only managing to keep one clean sheet across these fixtures. MK Dons boast the strongest away record of any side in League Two this term, having lost just one of their eight matches on the road this season. These games have produced 23 goals (2.87 per game). 

The most recent meeting between these sides saw BTTS in a 1-1 draw back in February. Both sides registered an xG in excess of 1.0 on that occasion.

Fleetwood come into this game having seen BTTS in each of their last five matches across all competitions. Their most recent assignment was a 1-1 draw against Swindon, with recent matches also including 2-1 victories and a 3-3 draw against Port Vale.

Shrewsbury come into this clash having seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, the exception came last time out against Newport, as they ran out 1-0 winners over the bottom placed side in League Two this term.

Fleetwood’s matches over their 16 games have been really entertaining, with 46 goals across these fixtures (23 scored, 23 conceded - 2.87 per game). Their eight home games have seen 28 of these goals (3.5 per game), with the 13 goals that Fleetwood have conceded across these games being the second most of any side in the division, behind Newport (17).

The most recent meeting between these sides, which took place in January, saw BTTS as Shrewsbury ran out 3-1 winners. We should get a similar volume of goals here, particularly when considering Fleetwood’s home record this season. 

Hoffenheim are yet to lose a game on the road in the Bundesliga this season having won four of their five away matches. This is a marked improvement on their performances in the Bundesliga last season, with Hoffenheim finishing just three points outside of the relegation zone, and winning just three of their 17 away matches.

They’ve already eclipsed that tally this season with their strong scoring power on the road. Only Bayern Munich (15) have outscored Hoffenheim (13) away from home in the Bundesliga this season, so they come into this game as real favourites based on recent form. 

Mainz have a truly dismal home record in the early stages of the Bundesliga campaign. They’ve failed to win any of their five home matches, losing four of these games. They come into this clash in poor form having won just one of their last five matches across all competitions. 

That win was in the Conference League against Fiorentina, which is where the majority of Mainz’s victories have come recently - you have to go back to the 20th September for their last victory in the Bundesliga, which was a 4-1 win against fellow Bundesliga strugglers Augsburg.

I think Airdrie look overpriced to score in their Scottish Championship home game with Ayr on Saturday. After enduring a nightmare start to the season, Airdrie have enjoyed an upturn in form in recent weeks, collecting seven points from the last 12 on offer.

Last week’s 3-0 win away at Raith Rovers saw the Diamonds deliver their best performance of the season so far, meaning that they will come into this weekend's clash with Ayr in high spirits.

As for the visitors, inconsistency continues to plague their campaign, with last week’s 1-1 draw at home to Arbroath the Honest Men’s third stalemate across their last four league matches. Scott Brown’s side have also struggled for clean sheets this season, failing to keep the back door shut in 11 of their 15 second tier fixtures this term.

While Airdrie remain bottom of the table, they have scored in four of their last five league games at home, netting against title-chasing duo St Johnstone and Partick Thistle across that stretch of matches.

Rangers have shown some signs of marked improvement under Danny Rohl’s guidance, and they should continue to build momentum by defeating Livingston at Ibrox on Saturday afternoon. The Light Blues have won each of their three Scottish Premiership matches since Rohl took the reins, defeating Kilmarnock at home before claiming wins away at both Hibernian and Dundee.

Rangers racked up three goals in two of those three victories, and I would be surprised if they don’t score at least twice against Livingston on Saturday.

David Martindale’s men are currently propping up the Scottish Premiership table, conceding a league-high 23 goals at this juncture. What’s more, the Lions have leaked two goals or more in eight of their 12 top-flight fixtures this term, including five of their last seven league games - one of which was this season’s reverse fixture with Rangers.

The fact that Rangers have only managed to post one clean sheet in five outings at Ibrox in the Scottish Premiership this season only adds to the appeal of siding with this selection, as multiple strikes may be needed to see off Livingston.

Hibernian look well placed to claim back-to-back wins in the Scottish Premiership when they play host to Dundee on Saturday. David Gray's side produced one of their best performances of the season when earning a 3-0 win away at St Mirren before the international break. That victory moved the Hibees up to 3rd position in the table, just five points behind second-placed Celtic.

Back at their capital base this weekend, Hibs should have too much class for a Dundee side that sit second from bottom in the Scottish Premiership standings.

Steven Pressley’s side have lost a league-high seven matches in this season’s Scottish Premiership, including five of their last six assignments. Moreover, the Dark Blues have come away empty-handed from each of their last four league games away from home, losing 4-0 to both Aberdeen and Hearts across that sequence.

Hibs cruised to a 4-0 win when hosting another of the division’s strugglers in the shape of Livingston last month, and I’m expecting the capital club to take top honours here without too much fuss.

I think Falkirk are more than capable of scoring at least once when they take on Dundee United in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday. The 5th-placed Bairns have made an impressive start to life back in the top-flight, scoring once or more in 10 of their opening 12 games of the campaign.

Across that 12-game sample, John McGlynn’s men have made the net bulge away from home against the likes of Aberdeen and Motherwell, and they look well placed to make their mark against a Dundee United side that have looked suspect defensively this season.

Jim Goodwin’s side have failed to silence their opponents in 10 of their 12 Scottish top-flight fixtures this season, with four of the five teams to visit this venue getting on the scoresheet. Kilmarnock, Livingston and St Mirren have all scored on their respective trips to Tannadice this term, and I think attack-minded Falkirk can follow suit.

There are two games left of the Eliteserien season and Bodo/Glimt currently sit one point behind league leaders Viking. Three of Bodo's last five matches have seen BTTS, they take on a KFUM Oslo side here who may have nothing to fight for, but have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches across all competitions - notably failing to win any of these matches.

While KFUM Oslo may have switched off when it comes to grinding out results, they still offer a scoring threat, which can trouble Bodo who are likely to feel the pressure of their title charge. Two of the three head-to-head meetings that have taken place within the last year have seen BTTS.

Glimt boast the strongest away record of any side in the Eliteserien, with nine wins from their 14 travelling matches. They’ve netted 33 goals across these games, which is the joint best away scoring record in the division, but they have conceded 16 goals across these matches, too.

Marseille are keeping pace with PSG at the summit of Ligue 1, which is no easy task given the dominance that the Parisians have had in their domestic division for the last 10 years. After 12 matches, Marseille sit two points behind PSG with a superior goal difference, and notably the best home record of any side in the division.

Their six away matches have produced 12 goals (2.0 per game) with BTTS landing in two of these matches, but Nice have shown a tendency to be involved in high scoring encounters, especially at home.

Nice have netted 10 goals across their six home matches this term, with their home games seeing 2.5 goals per game overall. Nice have seen BTTS in eight of their 12 games in Ligue 1 this season, suggesting that their defence will be vulnerable to this Marseille attack, which has netted more goals than any other side in the division (28).

These sides currently both sit towards the bottom of the Eerste Divisie, with Ajax having a game in hand on their opponents which, if they were to win this match, would take them to within three points of FC Eindhoven, who currently occupy 17th spot.

The chaotic nature of the second division of Dutch football means that both sides could still make a push for the playoffs, with FC Eindhoven only seven points away from those positions, despite making a slow start to the campaign. Both sides come into this game having seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions.

Seven of the last 10 meetings between these sides have seen BTTS, a run stretching back to 2021, with the frequency of meetings in this period showing that the sides are familiar with each other. Ajax’s eight home games in the Eerste Divisie have produced 24 goals (3.0 per game), with Ajax only managing to win one of these matches.

Hoffenheim have made a strong start to the campaign and enter this contest with real momentum, having avoided defeat in each of their last five matches across all competitions. Four of these games saw BTTS, so Hoffenheim have managed to grind out results with high goal tallies in recent weeks.

Hoffenheim have picked up the same number of points as Bayern Munich (13) on the road this season in the Bundesliga, showing how strong they are on their travels. They’ve netted 13 goals across these games, which is a metric only bettered by Bayern in the German top flight.

Mainz have the worst home record of any side in the Bundesliga, having lost four of their five home games so far this season. They’ve conceded nine goals across these matches, while these two sides currently separated by 14 points in the Bundesliga table.

Dave Challinor’s side are becoming extremely effective at this level; they are very adept at grinding out results and avoiding defeat. Stockport only lost eight matches in the league last season. We’re now 15 games into this season, and they’ve only lost three times.

A key component of Stockport’s success is their ability to bounce back from disappointing defeats and performances; they haven’t lost back-to-back league matches last season or this season. A defeat at the weekend would spell the end of this terrific record.

Peterborough have undoubtedly improved under the stewardship of Luke Williams, but this will be their toughest test yet. The emphatic win against AFC Wimbledon was a big statement to their relegation rivals, but Wimbledon were on the back of a defeat against lowly Burton and a sobering FA Cup defeat to National League opposition. It’s fair to speculate Wimbledon’s confidence had taken a hit.

The appointment of Luke Williams has produced an immediate impact for Peterborough, his ideas have quickly been implemented, and a new identity on the pitch is beginning to emerge. They played some terrific passing football in their 5-0 win against AFC Wimbledon, racking up an extremely impressive 4.18 xG. The visitors were caught cold and found themselves 3-0 down after just 36 minutes.

Peterborough should be full of confidence after that ruthless performance, and although Stockport have a sturdy defence, the hosts will be confident of getting on the scoresheet here. Luke Williams’ team have found the net in all three of his matches since taking over. 

Stockport’s defeat to Luton was the first time they have failed to score in a league match this season, there is clearly a tendency to find the net, exemplified by their 1.81 xGF across their last five league games.