Football Tips

The appointment of Luke Williams has produced an immediate impact for Peterborough, his ideas have quickly been implemented, and a new identity on the pitch is beginning to emerge. They played some terrific passing football in their 5-0 win against AFC Wimbledon, racking up an extremely impressive 4.18 xG. The visitors were caught cold and found themselves 3-0 down after just 36 minutes.

Peterborough should be full of confidence after that ruthless performance, and although Stockport have a sturdy defence, the hosts will be confident of getting on the scoresheet here. Luke Williams’ team have found the net in all three of his matches since taking over. 

Stockport’s defeat to Luton was the first time they have failed to score in a league match this season, there is clearly a tendency to find the net, exemplified by their 1.81 xGF across their last five league games.

Dave Challinor’s side are becoming extremely effective at this level; they are very adept at grinding out results and avoiding defeat. Stockport only lost eight matches in the league last season. We’re now 15 games into this season, and they’ve only lost three times.

A key component of Stockport’s success is their ability to bounce back from disappointing defeats and performances; they haven’t lost back-to-back league matches last season or this season. A defeat at the weekend would spell the end of this terrific record.

Peterborough have undoubtedly improved under the stewardship of Luke Williams, but this will be their toughest test yet. The emphatic win against AFC Wimbledon was a big statement to their relegation rivals, but Wimbledon were on the back of a defeat against lowly Burton and a sobering FA Cup defeat to National League opposition. It’s fair to speculate Wimbledon’s confidence had taken a hit.

Hoffenheim have made a strong start to the campaign and enter this contest with real momentum, having avoided defeat in each of their last five matches across all competitions. Four of these games saw BTTS, so Hoffenheim have managed to grind out results with high goal tallies in recent weeks.

Hoffenheim have picked up the same number of points as Bayern Munich (13) on the road this season in the Bundesliga, showing how strong they are on their travels. They’ve netted 13 goals across these games, which is a metric only bettered by Bayern in the German top flight.

Mainz have the worst home record of any side in the Bundesliga, having lost four of their five home games so far this season. They’ve conceded nine goals across these matches, while these two sides currently separated by 14 points in the Bundesliga table.

These sides currently both sit towards the bottom of the Eerste Divisie, with Ajax having a game in hand on their opponents which, if they were to win this match, would take them to within three points of FC Eindhoven, who currently occupy 17th spot.

The chaotic nature of the second division of Dutch football means that both sides could still make a push for the playoffs, with FC Eindhoven only seven points away from those positions, despite making a slow start to the campaign. Both sides come into this game having seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions.

Seven of the last 10 meetings between these sides have seen BTTS, a run stretching back to 2021, with the frequency of meetings in this period showing that the sides are familiar with each other. Ajax’s eight home games in the Eerste Divisie have produced 24 goals (3.0 per game), with Ajax only managing to win one of these matches.

Marseille are keeping pace with PSG at the summit of Ligue 1, which is no easy task given the dominance that the Parisians have had in their domestic division for the last 10 years. After 12 matches, Marseille sit two points behind PSG with a superior goal difference, and notably the best home record of any side in the division.

Their six away matches have produced 12 goals (2.0 per game) with BTTS landing in two of these matches, but Nice have shown a tendency to be involved in high scoring encounters, especially at home.

Nice have netted 10 goals across their six home matches this term, with their home games seeing 2.5 goals per game overall. Nice have seen BTTS in eight of their 12 games in Ligue 1 this season, suggesting that their defence will be vulnerable to this Marseille attack, which has netted more goals than any other side in the division (28).

There are two games left of the Eliteserien season and Bodo/Glimt currently sit one point behind league leaders Viking. Three of Bodo's last five matches have seen BTTS, they take on a KFUM Oslo side here who may have nothing to fight for, but have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches across all competitions - notably failing to win any of these matches.

While KFUM Oslo may have switched off when it comes to grinding out results, they still offer a scoring threat, which can trouble Bodo who are likely to feel the pressure of their title charge. Two of the three head-to-head meetings that have taken place within the last year have seen BTTS.

Glimt boast the strongest away record of any side in the Eliteserien, with nine wins from their 14 travelling matches. They’ve netted 33 goals across these games, which is the joint best away scoring record in the division, but they have conceded 16 goals across these matches, too.

Hoffenheim are yet to lose a game on the road in the Bundesliga this season having won four of their five away matches. This is a marked improvement on their performances in the Bundesliga last season, with Hoffenheim finishing just three points outside of the relegation zone, and winning just three of their 17 away matches.

They’ve already eclipsed that tally this season with their strong scoring power on the road. Only Bayern Munich (15) have outscored Hoffenheim (13) away from home in the Bundesliga this season, so they come into this game as real favourites based on recent form. 

Mainz have a truly dismal home record in the early stages of the Bundesliga campaign. They’ve failed to win any of their five home matches, losing four of these games. They come into this clash in poor form having won just one of their last five matches across all competitions. 

That win was in the Conference League against Fiorentina, which is where the majority of Mainz’s victories have come recently - you have to go back to the 20th September for their last victory in the Bundesliga, which was a 4-1 win against fellow Bundesliga strugglers Augsburg.

Fleetwood come into this game having seen BTTS in each of their last five matches across all competitions. Their most recent assignment was a 1-1 draw against Swindon, with recent matches also including 2-1 victories and a 3-3 draw against Port Vale.

Shrewsbury come into this clash having seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, the exception came last time out against Newport, as they ran out 1-0 winners over the bottom placed side in League Two this term.

Fleetwood’s matches over their 16 games have been really entertaining, with 46 goals across these fixtures (23 scored, 23 conceded - 2.87 per game). Their eight home games have seen 28 of these goals (3.5 per game), with the 13 goals that Fleetwood have conceded across these games being the second most of any side in the division, behind Newport (17).

The most recent meeting between these sides, which took place in January, saw BTTS as Shrewsbury ran out 3-1 winners. We should get a similar volume of goals here, particularly when considering Fleetwood’s home record this season. 

Tranmere come into this game having seen BTTS in each of their last five matches across all competitions. They’ve managed to win two of these games, with victories over Blackpool and Cheltenham.

MK Dons have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions, with the away side only managing to keep one clean sheet across these fixtures. MK Dons boast the strongest away record of any side in League Two this term, having lost just one of their eight matches on the road this season. These games have produced 23 goals (2.87 per game). 

The most recent meeting between these sides saw BTTS in a 1-1 draw back in February. Both sides registered an xG in excess of 1.0 on that occasion.

Volendam have only lost one of their six home games in the Eredivisie this season, with these games producing 18 goals (3.0 per game). They’ve netted 11 of these goals, so we can expect them to carry a scoring threat here against a Twente side that can be a bit chaotic in their away fixtures.

Twente have won two of their six away games in the Eredivisie this season, with these games producing 19 goals (3.16 per game). Twente have seen BTTS in four of these matches, showing how their vulnerability to conceding goals on the road has directly impacted their overall away record in the Dutch top flight this season. This is not an issue only resigned to their away matches, with Twente conceding 18 goals so far this season - the second most of any side in the top 10 of the Eredivisie. 

The most recent meeting between these sides produced a notable nine goals and saw BTTS, as Twente ran out 7-2 winners. They are unlikely to be as convincing in victory here as the away side, but it’s an example of the type of high scoring encounter we could see.

Dundee United have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception being a 2-0 defeat to Motherwell. United have only managed to win one of these games, so they’re still looking for their scoring power to translate into results - though their recent matches have included 1-1 draws against both Hearts and Rangers on the road.

Falkirk have also seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception being a 4-0 loss to Celtic away from home. Only two points separate these sides in the SPFL, so we can expect a pretty even encounter here, with Dundee having the opportunity to leapfrog Falkirk if they can collect all three points.

Only the three bottom sides in the SPFL have conceded more goals than Falkirk this season (21). Dundee have a pretty even split when it comes to the goals they’ve seen in their matches this season as well (18 scored, 17 conceded - 3.18 per game).

Crawley’s recent matches have been really hectic, with each of their last five seeing over 2.5 goals. They’ve won two of these matches, with their most recent assignment being a 2-2 draw against Gillingham.

They take on an Accrington side that have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, avoiding defeat across all of these outings. They come into this game following a 2-1 win over Bristol Rovers, which was a result that has lifted them away from the threat of relegation for now.

Crawley’s eight home games in League Two this season have produced 21 goals (2.6 per game). This represents a crucial match for both sides, with them separated by just one point towards the bottom of League Two. 

Relegation from the football league is a near impossible situation to bounce back from, so both sides will want to put as much distance between themselves and the drop zone as possible, before the crucial run in period at the end of the season.

It feels like I back Bayern Munich every week for high scoring affairs, but their attacking numbers are unmatched by any other side in Europe, so Vincent Kompany’s side have been a safe bet when it comes to goals - especially when playing at the Allianz Arena.

Bayern have scored 35 goals in the Bundesliga this season, with 20 of these goals coming across their five home matches (4.0 per game). Unsurprisingly, Bayern have managed to win all of these matches, with many sides in the Bundesliga really struggling to cope with this level of scoring power.

3+ goals landed in the most recent head-to-head clash between these sides, which ended in a 2-1 win for Bayern. No side has been as clinical as Bayern in the final third in the Bundesliga, or across Europe as a whole. Freiburg can also contribute to the goal count here, having seen 3+ goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions. This includes their last two matches, which they’ve managed to win 3-1 and 2-1.

PSV lead the way in the Eredivisie and are closely being stalked by Feyenoord, as they look to defend their league title which they clinched from the grasp of Ajax in the most dramatic fashion last season.

Unsurprisingly, PSV have been dominant on the road in the Eredivisie so far this season - winning all six of their matches, with these games producing 28 goals (4.66 per game). Five of these matches have seen 3+ goals, with the exception being their 2-0 win over Twente in the very early weeks of the campaign.

Breda have earned 10 of their 12 points at home this season, so we can expect them to carry an attacking threat in this game. Breda have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with their six home games producing 15 goals this term (2.5 per game).

This is an important game for Celtic, with the Hoops currently seven points adrift of SPFL leaders Hearts. Celtic do have a game in hand on the league leaders, and will need to make it count to prevent Hearts from taking a healthy lead at the top of the table, heading into a busy Christmas period.

Celtic have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions. They ran out 4-0 winners over Kilmarnock last time out, and will need to carry that scoring power into this encounter. St Mirren have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, mostly recently losing 3-0 to Hibernian at home. 

Celtic have struggled for consistency on the road this season, with their five away matches only producing two wins, with 11 goals across these games (2.2 per game). Celtic’s inconsistency on the road this term opens up the door for St Mirren to contribute to what should be a high goal tally here. 

Marseille are keeping pace with PSG at the summit of Ligue 1 which is no easy task given the dominance that the Parisians have had in their domestic division for the last 10 years. After 12 matches, Marseille sit two points behind PSG with a superior goal difference, and notably the best home record of any side in the division.

Their six away matches have produced 12 goals (2.0 per game) with BTTS landing in two of those matches, but Nice have shown a tendency to be involved in high scoring encounters, especially at home. 

Nice have netted 10 goals across their six home matches this term with their home games seeing 2.5 goals per game overall. Nice have seen BTTS in eight of their 12 games in Ligue 1 this season, suggesting that their defence is vulnerable to this Marseille attack which has netted more goals than any other side in the league (28).