In this article…
Birmingham v QPR
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Date: Friday 22nd September
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Competition: Championship
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Kick off: 20:00
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Watch live: Sky Sports Main Event
There has been an American-backed takeover at Birmingham City over the summer. Whilst this can only be a good thing for Birmingham supporters, given how sour relations were with the previous ownership, it does also provide a little bit of pressure to deliver for those at the club.
Pressure is a big motivator in football, but it can also provide the means for players and staff to crumble. QPR went on a huge losing streak last season, sliding almost all the way down the division. Gareth Ainsworth, former player and club legend, managed to stop the rot, to an extent, to survive in the Championship and was given the keys to the recruitment and the playing style over the summer.
Results for both teams have been mixed. Whilst both have seen some rays of sunshine in terms of performance levels, and young players coming to the fore, both will also want to improve results in the short term to keep their ambitions for the season on course.
Indeed, this can form the basis of a couple of good betting angles for a Birmingham v QPR Bet Builder. This preview has an intriguing 3/1 shot and a 17/1 alternative.
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Eustace under pressure but Stansfield leading the charge for new-look Blues attack
Current Birmingham manager John Eustace has done a good job with the team since his tenure began last summer. The Blues stayed comfortably clear of a relegation battle on a budget that was fairly stringent. This season has seen some improved investment, but by no means big for the league, and Eustace has again delivered good performances from the players.
However, this has not stopped the rumour mill from turning. There has been recent speculation that the owners could be on the lookout for a different manager, specifically Wayne Rooney. To many Bluenoses this idea may seem somewhat ludicrous, but in a game where profile counts for pounds, the owners may not see Eustace as a big enough name to draw a crowd.
The recruitment in the summer was understated but well-handled. Attacking options have been improved with calculated gambles such as Koji Miyoshi looking useful and Keshi Anderson proving himself a Championship-quality operator. The big improvement in Birmingham’s attacking play has come from a young loanee, Jay Stansfield. Stansfield impressed at Exeter last season in League One and his ability to play in a withdrawn role, or as the main #9, is a great string to his bow. A debut goal won over St. Andrews straight away and he has continued to look a threat for Blues. Birmingham are going to be safe from any relegation threat this season, but do they have enough for a play-off push? This feels unlikely, but could it be what the new owners demand?
Birmingham team news
Ethan Laird is the latest Birmingham first team player to pick up a knock, with the likes of Tyler Roberts and youngster George Hall also on the sidelines.
The hardest one to predict is Siriki Dembele, who may be fit enough to play a part in the game, but likely not from the start. John Ruddy will be in goal, and the formation is likely to be a 4-2-3-1 shape.
Lee Buchanan is back from his one-game suspension to take up his role at left-back, Kevin Long and Dion Sanderson will be in central defence, with Cody Drameh deputising for Ethan Laird on the right, Krystian Bielik and Ivan Sunjic are a big reason why Birmingham have a high, consistent level of performance as they are a solid midfield pairing. Juninho Bacuna could come back into the fold for the disappointing Oli Burke, but the rest of the forward pack should remain unchanged with Keshi Anderson and Koji Miyoshi in behind Jay Stansfield.
QPR fighting but further quality required to avoid a relegation battle
It was the fear of QPR supporters that the club would face a long, hard slog against the odds in this 2023/24 Championship season. Unfortunately, for the Loftus Road faithful, there is little evidence to suggest that this will not be the case.
QPR sit 23rd in the Championship for xG difference, though a decent percentage of that will come from a really poor opening day defeat. They mirror their actual position of 20th in the expected points table, albeit that isn’t much of a salvation in itself.
In Ainsworth, they have a manager who is well prepared for this fight though. Once he has achieved a certain level of buy-in from his players, they will be ready to follow him through a brick wall or off the edge of a cliff. The problem is that the cliff analogy could easily be the Super Hoops dropping down into League One because the performances are right on the edge.
Ilias Chair is still a quality operator and looks to be relishing his leadership role in the group. If he and Sinclair Armstrong, who looks like a massive prospect for Rangers, can create a strong connection then there is hope for QPR.
QPR team news
At the time of writing, QPR look to be closing in on the signing of Reggie Cannon, however, it is doubtful that he would be risked straight away in a Friday night game.
Asmir Begovic will be in goal for what is likely to be a 3-4-3 or 5-2-3 formation. Central defenders will be Osman Kakay, Steve Cook, and the left-footed option of Morgan Fox. Paul Smyth has impressed QPR fans since his return from Leyton Orient and will continue at right wing-back, with Kenneth Paal on the left, while Andre Dozzell and Sam Field will patrol the midfield.
Sinclair Armstrong’s place up front could be under threat from Lyndon Dykes, who replaced the youngster after an hour on Tuesday night and scored the equaliser. Alternatively, Chris Willock could drop out of the side for Armstrong to shift wider to accommodate Dykes. Ilias Chair, however, is a nailed-on starter for this clash at St. Andrews.
Birmingham v QPR Cheat Sheet
Here’s the Cheat Sheet for the game and isn’t it glorious? All the stats in one handy guide, ready for you to pick out any betting angles you can find when choosing a bet builder for this Friday night Championship clash.
Our Birmingham v QPR bet builders have also been carefully selected from the stats on our Cheat Sheet. We combine historical averages, the perceived value of the selection and player form to determine the best value picks for any potential bet builder.
To make the most of our Birmingham v QPR bet builder tips you can sign up to Betfair below. Stake up to £10 on your preferred option, and get £50 in free bet builders no matter what the result.
ABC’s 3/1 Birmingham v QPR bet builder
✅ Birmingham to win
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Odds: 1.85
The home side are worth backing here based on recent levels of performance. The Blues have maintained a good level of performance on their travels this week and have been unlucky to leave empty-handed.
The return to St. Andrews should be a benefit to them as they are unbeaten in the league at home so far this season and they have won the xG battle in every match too. Indeed, their most convincing win by chances created was not a win at all, it was their 1-1 draw last time at home to Millwall.
QPR have won six of their seven points away from home surprisingly, but they are yet to be the better side in terms of performance data having lost the xG battle on every occasion so far.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🚀 Jay Stansfield to have 3+ shots
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Odds: 1.57
Stansfield is likely to be given most, if not all, of the match to play tonight.
He has averaged 3.66 shots per 90 minutes so far, which is well over 1.5 per 45 minutes. Therefore, if he does get the chance to play the full 90 minutes this price looks good value.
Given the fact that Birmingham are fancied for the win as well, it stands to reason that the Blues should get off at least their average number of shots. Blues have managed 12 shots on average over the last 30 games and Stansfield took five in the last match.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🛑 Paul Smyth to commit 1+ fouls
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Odds: 1.40
Paul Smyth has committed at least one foul every time that he has taken to the field for QPR so far this season. This is now sitting at an average of 1.72 per 90.
If that isn’t enough evidence already, then Smyth is likely to be up against either the skillful Keshi Anderson or potentially the rapid, tricky and dribbly Siriki Dembele.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
ABC’s 17/1 Birmingham v QPR bet builder
✅ Birmingham (-1 handicap)
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Odds: 3.50
Birmingham haven’t been known as the most free-scoring of teams, but bookmaker models seem to unusually expect very little of them going forward.
There has been improvement in their fluidity and skill in the forward areas since the summer and this is yet to be factored into their prices.
Their quality advantage over QPR could see them open up a lead here.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
⚽ Jay Stansfield to score anytime
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Odds: 2.88
Stansfield has three goals to his name in Blues colours, including the League Cup, a record of 0.78 goals per 90, but averages 0.97 goals per 90 in the Championship alone.
He is the Blues’ biggest goal threat at the moment by a long way, at least until Scott Hogan, Lukas Jutkiewicz, or Siriki Dembele return to the side, so even though the price is relatively short, it’s a value play.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🛑 Paul Smyth to commit 2+ fouls
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Odds: 2.87
Smyth’s fouls record in the Championship so far this season reads (in chronological order): 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2.
Therefore he has committed fouls in three of his last five, and every time he has completed 90 minutes. All of the 1 foul matches were when Smyth was withdrawn late in the second half. With the Northern Irishman learning on the job somewhat at right wing back it is likely that he sins multiple times at St Andrew’s.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing
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