There is quite a lot of data to back up this bet.

Starting with QPR, their averages are very friendly to BTTS. They score an average of 1.35 goals per game, and concede 1.6 per game; these numbers are well backed up by their expected goals numbers of 1.4 xG for and 1.45 xG against, numbers that certainly don’t guarantee goal action at both ends, but do hint at a team that are capable of both scoring and conceding goals on a regular basis.

Rangers have seen both teams score in five of their last seven matches, whilst this is a trend that Birmingham have cottoned onto recently as well, with all five of their last five matches also seeing both teams find the net.

This had been a less common occurrence for Blues, as earlier in the season they struggled to find the net for a period, and then they kept a few clean sheets themselves. At the moment, Davies’ men seem a little more willing to take risks; their defensive xG has been above 1 in each of their last four matches, whilst their seasonal average is down at 0.88 xG, so it seems that the defensive solidity is drifting away somewhat.

This bet is based mainly on the appointment of James Bell and supplemented by Birmingham’s card record.

Bell has officiated five Championship matches and nine EFL matches in total this season, and he is averaging four cards per game across both samples. Only once this season has Bell gone under this line for cautions, a League Two match between Gillingham and Harrogate Town in September.

Birmingham are averaging 2.16 cards per match in the Championship this season, but also seeing their opponents get carded 1.95 times a game on average as well, so just creeping over the four cards per game average.

QPR’s average cards per game isn’t quite as high, with 1.8 cards per game received and the same dished out to their opponents, but they still usually see three or more cards per game.

Iwata is one of the longest-priced likely starters in this match, and yet he is banging in the shots from his new attacking right-back role for Birmingham.

He has shot in seven of his last nine starts, and not only that, on every single one of those occasions, he has shot multiple times.

Indeed, Iwata's recent stats, taking Birmingham's last 10 matches as a sample size, Iwata averages 2.41 shots per match. His last four starts read: three shots vs Southampton, three vs West Brom, four vs Norwich, and two vs Middlesbrough, so he is a man who has found the freedom in this nominally defensive role to get forward, find space in decent shooting opportunities, and let fly.

To be able to back only one shot here is useful; I would happily recommend a single bet on two or more and at higher lines as well.

I am surprised to see the QPR marksman so far down the betting in this market. He is behind the likes of Kanya Fujimoto and Tommy Doyle, and a way bigger price than teammates Michael Frey and Richard Kone, despite

Burrell having much higher shots per 90 stats.
Indeed, if we take QPR home games in the Championship as a sample size, then Burrell has a 3.09 shot per 90 rate; this compares to Kone’s 1.91 and Frey’s 2.29 figures, and yet they are 1.16 and 1.33 in this market, respectively.

Burrell has beaten this line in six of his last seven matches at Loftus Road, and two of those were substitute appearances, and yet he still hit at least two shots. His last three starts at home have seen Burrell hit four shots against West Brom, four against Hull, and three against Southampton, so he is bang in form, and this line should be no real challenge for him despite the price.