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Aston Villa v Bournemouth Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Aston Villa v Bournemouth Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Friday 7 November, 20254 min read
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The Perceptive Football Punter

Football analyst, betting writer, and educator. Wealth of experience studying football markets and identifying value opportunities through a data-heavy approach. As a true specialist in player markets, I use that knowledge and theory to educate others on how to spot shrewd angles in the market.

Aston Villa host Bournemouth on Sunday afternoon, both sides have been in good form and it should be a hotly contested encounter. The home side will be keen to bounce back after suffering their first Premier League defeat in five games at Anfield. 

It’s a similar story for Bournemouth, the visitors have been in great form this campaign, but also suffered a defeat in their last game, going down 3-1 to Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium, their first defeat in eight games.

Our Football Match Stats, including Aston Villa v Bournemouth, provide further insight.

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Aston Villa v Bournemouth Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Aston Villa v Bournemouth
  • Premier League
  • 15:00
4 Selections @ 4.01

Antoine Semenyo to have 1+ Shots on Target

While Semenyo’s shot averages might be down on last season, averaging just 2.2 shots per 90, his efficiency with finding the target has been really strong. Semenyo is averaging 1.3 shots on target per 90. He’s found the target in each of his last five games. 

From the evidence of watching Semenyo over the last couple of years, he’s arguably both-footed. This has been a huge advantage and a nightmare for defenders; he’s fantastic at creating half a yard and shifting the ball onto either foot. 

Knowing Unai Emery, there should be periods where Villa sit deep and invite pressure, this may give Semenyo a few opportunities to be proactive and open up space to unleash from distance. Given Semenyo’s shooting data this season, it definitely feels like there’s more value backing the shot on target, rather than over 1.5 shots at 1.33.

Ollie Watkins to have 3+ Shots

Watkins is currently going at 1.6 shots per 90, but this is a great spot for him to improve on that. 

Bournemouth like to go man-for-man, and this leaves them very vulnerable when the press doesn’t work. Morgan Rogers is a master at taking the ball on the half turn and leaving opposition players in his wake. This should ultimately open up the space in the final third to service Watkins. 

Bournemouth have now conceded a whopping 19 shots against opposition strikers in their last three games, most notably Jean-Philippe Mateta racking up 11 and Erling Haaland six. There’s clearly a tendency for opposition strikers to get into shooting positions against Bournemouth, and that’s been exemplified by some of the recent data over the last couple of weeks.

Over 3.5 Bournemouth Corners

Although Villa fielded a heavily rotated team against Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Europa League, there were still some regulars present; fatigue could be a slight issue. That fatigue may alter the game plan slightly and afford Bournemouth a greater level of territory. 

Bournemouth are a front-footed side, they are averaging a rather healthy 5.6 corners in away games. Bournemouth have managed over 3.5 corners in every single away game this season. The visitors have played some very capable teams on the road, and these numbers are still holding up. 

Villa are conceding an average of five corners in home games this season, the only occasion below 3.5 was a 3-0 defeat to Crystal Palace. Gamestate was understandably a major factor here, though, with the visitors leading the game from the 20th minute and only managing one corner.

Over 0.5 Aston Villa Goals

Although Bournemouth started the campaign looking very assured defensively, there are some signs the defence is beginning to look more exposed. Bournemouth have now conceded eight goals across their last three away games. 

The shot data across those away games is rather alarming, Bournemouth conceded eight shots on target against Man City, seven against Palace, and eight against Leeds. Those kinds of numbers aren’t particularly sustainable, and will always leave you vulnerable to conceding goals. 

As touched upon earlier, Villa have certain weapons which are very capable of outmanoeuvring the intense pressing of Bournemouth, and they should get space in attacking areas to hurt the Bournemouth defence.  Aside from their 2-0 defeat to Liverpool last week, Villa had scored a goal in their previous nine games consecutively, finding the net is clearly no longer an issue for them, in relative contrast to the start of the campaign.

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📂 Aston Villa v Bournemouth Cheat Sheet

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📈 Aston Villa v Bournemouth Form & Tactics

Despite a dreadful start to the season, which saw Villa winless in their first five Premier League games, scoring just one goal, things have improved rather drastically for the hosts. Unai Emery is a superb manager, and it’s no surprise he’s been able to turn things around. 

However, Villa’s underlying data makes for some painful reading; they currently sit 19th in the xG table despite occupying 11th position in the league. The data is perhaps somewhat skewed because Villa were so ineffective offensively in the opening weeks of the season.

Defensively, Villa look a pretty solid team at this level, but they’ve struggled to create chances, racking up an xG for of 7.7 goals, their nine goals point to a slight overperformance. 

Bournemouth have found a way to keep clean sheets regardless of their high octane and expansive approach; it’s now four clean sheets across 10 Premier League games. 

The fascinating data point is that Bournemouth have lost just two Premier League games all season, away to Liverpool and Manchester City. Bournemouth are showing a real ability to be competitive with the teams around them and below them. The visitors are sitting 5th  in the league, and there will be genuine belief that they can mount a challenge for European football.


📔 Aston Villa v Bournemouth Formation & Team News

Unai Emery likes to set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, it’s been slightly fluid and interchangeable with a 4-2-2-2/4-4-2 in recent weeks. The attacking players can often be utilised in different positions week to week, especially when Watkins isn’t playing. Amadou Onana and Boubacar Kamara provide defensive steel in the centre of the park, while Lucas Digne provides creativity and width from left back. 

Unai Emery is tactically very adaptable; he can often make drastic stylistic changes to cater for different opposition, sometimes they are super aggressive in and out of possession, sometimes very passive. 

Villa are boosted by the improving fitness of Youri Tielemans, the Belgian got a cameo against Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Europa League on Thursday night, but it’s unlikely he will start here. Andres Garcia is still out injured, while Tyrone Mings is still recovering from a hamstring injury. 

Andoni Iraola likes to employ a 4-2-3-1 formation. Bournemouth are ultra-aggressive off the ball and often go man-for-man to suffocate the opposition and pounce on mistakes. Athleticism and physicality are vital ingredients for his team, with players needing high fitness levels to carry out the game plan. Bournemouth are very fast in transition, and this is often spearheaded by the powerful and agile Antoine Semenyo. 

Bournemouth have a relatively clean bill of health, perhaps aided by having no European football. Tyler Adams is a slight injury doubt after picking up a knock in their game against Man City last week; he would be a key absentee.


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