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Chelsea v Ajax Bet Builder Tips, 13/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Chelsea v Ajax Bet Builder Tips, 13/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Tuesday 21 October, 20254 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...

Chelsea welcome Ajax to Stamford Bridge with the Blues looking for their second win of the Champions League campaign, having overcome Benfica at home last time out.

Ajax are yet to score in the Champions League, having lost both matches against Marseille and Inter Milan.

Check out these Chelsea v Ajax Betting Stats ahead of kick-off in West London.

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Chelsea v Ajax Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Chelsea v Ajax
  • Champions League
  • 20:00
4 Selections @ 3.54

Chelsea to Win

Chelsea should be able to turn over Ajax here, the away side have lost both of their Champions League games so far without even scoring a goal. They lost 2-0 at home to Inter Milan before being on the end of a 4-0 battering at the hands of Marseille on the road.

Ajax have found it difficult to find consistency on their travels, even in their domestic league with the Dutch giants drawing all four of their away matches so far. They’ve shipped eight goals across these games, so their backline is pretty vulnerable on the road and will struggle against the attacking quality of Chelsea, who come into this game on the back of a mood-lifting win against Nottingham Forest.

Chelsea have only lost one game at Stamford Bridge so far this season which was their 3-1 collapse against Brighton in which they were shown a red card halfway through the second half. If Chelsea can maintain their discipline, this should be a relatively straightforward assignment for Enzo Maresca’s men.

Over 1.5 Chelsea Cards

Chelsea’s disciplinary record is getting a bit ridiculous. Mali Gusto’s sending off against Nottingham Forest last time out marked the fourth occasion where Chelsea have been shown a red card this term - three in the Premier League and one in the Champions League.

Enzo Maresca must address this quickly, Chelsea are finding themselves out of games through their own petulance - Gusto’s ref card was a great example of a needless sending off, the Blues were 3-0 up at the time and didn’t need to be as aggressive as they were. Chelsea picked up four cards at the City Ground last time out, with all of these cautions coming after Chelsea had established a two-goal lead.

Chelsea collected three yellow cards and a red card in their 1-0 win over Benfica at home in the Champions League last time out, and it’s hard to see their discipline improving anytime soon with the squad being so young. The referee for this game is Felix Zwayer who is averaging 4.50 cards per game across his 10 appointments so far this term.

Chelsea have collected 17 yellow cards across their eight Premier League matches so far this term (2.1 per game).

Chelsea GK to Make 2+ Saves

Robert Sanchez has been called into action on 15 occasions across his eight Premier League appearances so far this season (2.13 per 90). He’s maintained a save percentage of 68.2% across these matches, which is pretty decent and close to his save percentage of 73.6% which was the highest in the league last term.

Chelsea are having to rely on Sanchez more often with the injuries they’ve suffered to their backline. Chelsea are set to line up with a centre-back partnership of Acheampong and Chalobah here, which isn’t as strong as it could be with Colwill, Badiashille, and Fofana all expected to be absent for this game.

Ajax do have the attacking talent to test Sanchez on a few occasions. They’ve averaging 6.90 shots on target per game in the Eredivisie so far this term and managed to draw two saves from Rulli in their 4-0 defeat to Marseille last time out. Ajax also drew two saves from Sommer in their 2-0 defeat at the hands of Inter Milan on Matchday 1.

Trevoh Chalobah to be Fouled 1+ Times

Chalobah has won seven fouls across his seven Premier League appearances so far this season (1.10 per 90). He was fouled once in Chelsea’s 3-1 defeat against Bayern Munich on Matchday 1 of the Champions League and should be in quite a physical battle here with Wout Weghorst.

Chelsea’s centre-backs usually end up with a decent record when it comes to fouls won. Levi Colwill averaged 0.60 fouls won per 90 across his 35 Premier League appearances last season, which is an example of this trend spanning across a few campaigns.

Chelsea’s centre-backs are tasked with keeping the ball and looking for gaps through which they can progress the ball. This naturally invites pressure from the opposition striker who can overstep the mark and foul the Chelsea centre-backs.

Chelsea’s system is designed on patience, with the centre-backs being the main anchors of this. In the absence of Colwill and Badiashille, Chalobah has had to be more comfortable on the ball and win more fouls as a result.

Chalobah averaged 1.00 fouls won per 90 across his 25 Premier League appearances last season, so this is a pretty consistent part of his game. His opponent here will be Wout Weghorst, who certainly holds a physical advantage on Chalobah, as well as committing 19 fouls across his eight appearances in the Eredivisie (2.69 per 90).

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Chelsea v Ajax Best Longshot Bets
  • Chelsea v Ajax
  • Champions League
  • 20:00
3 Selections @ 14.41

Marc Guiu to Score Anytime

Marc Guiu was the catalyst for Chelsea’s win over Nottingham Forest last time out. The eager striker came off the bench and completely changed the dynamic of the game, allowing Joao Pedro to drop a bit deeper and offer a more physical and combative presence up front.

I think he’ll be rewarded with a start here, seeing as Joao Pedro is set to miss this game through suspension after being sent off in the closing stages of Chelsea’s 1-0 win over Benfica at Stamford Bridge last time out. Guiu has shown promise in European competition before having netted six goals across his seven appearances in the Conference League last term.

This is obviously a lower standard of competition than the Champions League, so we’re looking for Guiu to make the step up to this level, but I'm confident he can do that from what I've seen from him so far. I also think that having an actual number nine in the side will benefit Chelsea. Joao Pedro works really hard, but he’s not a proper striker, and that is evident, having watched him try and fill that role for a few weeks now.

Kenneth Taylor be Shown a Card

Only Wout Weghorst (3) has picked up more cards for Ajax this season than Kenneth Taylor (2). The midfielder will have a tough assignment here in dealing with Chelsea’s dynamic midfield and Facundo Buonanotte in particular, who is likely to be his direct opponent here.

Taylor has committed 17 fouls across his nine appearances in the Eredivisie so far this season (1.95 per 90), which is a record that tells us that he isn’t afraid to get stuck in and make challenges, which is a great trait for our selection here.

Taylor’s battle with Buonanotte is likely to take centre stage here, with the Argentine impressing in his brief cameos for Chelsea so far this season. He won three fouls against Benfica on his Champions League debut, with both of Benfica’s central midfielders ending up with bookings. He can cause similar problems for Ajax and Taylor here with his clever movement and ability to manoeuvre between players.

Oscar Gloukhto have 1+ Shots on Target

Gloukh is one of the most talented players in the Ajax squad, in my opinion. I’ve had my eye on him for a few years, and he’s finally earned a move to a more established club following a few successful years at Salzburg.

He’s started well in an Ajax shirt with three goals and an assist across just 433 minutes in the Eredivisie this term. He’s had 17 shots across these appearances (3.53 per 90) with eight of these attempts finding the target (1.66 per 90).

Gloukh averaged 1.39 shots on target per 90 and scored 10 goals across his 26 appearances in the Austrian Bundesliga last season. He can trouble a rotated Chelsea backline, which is missing key players at centre-backs.

Ajax are likely to get more chances than usual here with the injuries Chelsea are contending with throughout the squad - Delap, Colwill, Palmer, Fernandez, and Caicedo are all expected to be out for this encounter.

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📂 Chelsea v Ajax Cheat Sheet

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📈 Chelsea v Ajax Form & Tactics

Chelsea earned a much-needed away win against Nottingham Forest last time out, with Acheampong, Neto, and James securing a 3-0 victory at the City Ground. Away wins have been rare for Chelsea in the Premier League, with previous successes only coming in trips to Craven Cottage and the London Stadium.

There is still an air of unpredictability about Chelsea, but their form is starting to pick up. They’ve won four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception of their 3-1 defeat to Brighton at Stamford Bridge, which was a game where they were reduced to 10 men, a common occurrence with Chelsea this season.

Ajax are progressing steadily domestically, having lost just one of their nine matches in the Eredivisie, but Europe has proven a tougher nut to crack. Ajax have lost both of their games in the Champions League so far without even scoring a goal. They lost 2-0 to Inter Milan on Matchday 1 and were on the end of a 4-0 thrashing in their most recent outing in the Champions League at the hands of Marseille.

Ajax’s recent form has also been pretty patchy, with just one win from their last five matches across all competitions. They’ve failed to win in their last three matches, losing two of these games, which is a record that would suggest that they enter this match pretty low on confidence, which is something that Chelsea can look to take advantage of.


📔 Chelsea v Ajax Formation & Team News

Chelsea have had to change their shape in recent weeks with the injuries starting to stack up, likely as a direct result of their involvement in the Club World Cup over the summer. Chelsea still build with a three at the back when in possession but there are changes ahead with Gusto coming into a central role and Santos being pushed further up the pitch.

We may also see a rare start for Romeo Lavia here with Fernandez and Caicedo both expected to be absent for this game. There is definitely a lack of balance in the middle of the park without the two South Americans, and Gusto doesn’t look completely settled in his central role - particularly when Chelsea lose the ball and face quick transitions.

Chelsea’s current injury list is pretty lengthy with the likes of Palmer, Caicedo, Colwill and Delap all expected to miss out here. The Blues had a fresh injury blow over the international break with Benoit Badiashille ruled out until at least December, adding to the issues that Maresca is having to contend with at centre back.

Ajax line up in a 4-2-3-1 and are unlikely to deviate from that here seeing as this is the shape they’ve primarily used throughout the season. There are some talented young players in the squad such as Gloukh and Godts, but the overall makeup of the side is pretty average and lacking in the quality required to compete at this level.


📊 Chelsea v Ajax Key Stats

  • Chelsea have won four of their last five matches across all competitions.

  • Ajax have won just one of their last five matches across all competitions.

  • Chelsea could be without as many as seven first team players here, including Cole Palmer and Moises Caicedo.

  • Ajax have lost both of their Champions League matches this season, without scoring.


🔮 Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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