It has actually been a while since Man City played a lower league (L1 & L2) team in the EFL Cup. It is a trophy that Pep Guardiola dominated, with four wins in a row between 2018 and 2021, but City have failed to reach the quarter-finals in three of the last four renewals.

However, their losses have always been to other top half Premier League teams. Their recent (since beginning of 22/23) record against teams from outside the Premier League in domestic cups is as follows:

• 3-1 Win v Plymouth (H)

• 2-1 Win v Leyton Orient (A)

• 8-0 Win v Salford (H)

• 2-1 Win v Watford (H)

• 5-0 Win v Huddersfield (H)

• 3-0 Win v Sheff Utd (N)

• 3-0 Win v Bristol City (A)

All victories and all over 2.5 goals. What makes this bet a bit tastier is the prospect of Huddersfield getting in on the act as well. We have seen in three of the last four cup ties that City have played against non-Premier League opponents, that they have conceded a goal - Huddersfield are capable of doing that.

The Terriers had scored at least once in every match that they had played this season, until a 0-0 stalemate with Burton at the weekend, even then they generated 1.36xG.

Huddersfield are third in League One for goals scored and xG created, whilst being second for shots on target. They could cause City some trouble, even if they have to go a couple of goals down first for them to show it.

This is a similar case of Tottenham's rotation XI still being strong enough to be a first choice Premier League XI, against a team who were in League Two last season.

Tottenham are very short on recent history against lower league teams in any cup competition, and their last EFL Cup tie against anyone outside of the top two divisions was back in 2020 against Leyton Orient, which is too long ago to be relevant.

Spurs’ last recent cup matches against non-Premier League opposition going back to the beginning of the 2022/23 season are:

• 3-0 Win v Tamworth (A)

• 2-1 Win v Coventry (A)

• 3-0 Win v Preston (A)

• 1-0 Win v Portsmouth (H)

Spurs have won all of those matches, and the most recent three were all over 2.5 goals, albeit barely.

The Thomas Frank era seems to have started with some positivity around it, and from an on-pitch perspective, they have goals in the team (10 goals in 5 PL matches), whilst also retaining a sense of some fragility defensively.

Doncaster's last four matches have also gone over 2.5 goals, and they have conceded in each of them.

The (-1) handicap for Arsenal here is just too short, and there is some historical precedence that makes the (-2) handicap appealing.

I have listed below all of Arsenal's matches in the domestic cups since 2021/22.

• 3-0 Win v Preston (A)

• 5-1 Win v Bolton (H)

• 3-0 Win v Oxford (A)

• 5-1 Win v Sunderland (H)

• 3-0 Win v AFC Wimbledon (H)

• 6-0 Win v West Brom (A)

All of them see Arsenal cover the (-2) handicap, all of them were also under Mikel Arteta, which is important as we can often see trends establish under certain managers.

Whilst Port Vale are a solid defensive unit in League One, and ordinarily I wouldn't find myself in the position of backing against them, certainly not to concede many goals, the history and quality of player is stacked against them here.

Looking at Arteta's EFL Cup selections last season, there is no doubt that there is a high degree of rotation. However, amongst that rotation, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, and William Saliba all had starts, and the rotated players included Gabriel Jesus, Raheem Sterling, Ethan Nwaneri, Ricardo Calafiori, Oleksandr Zinchenko, and Jorginho, so not lacking in strength or experience by any means.