Football Tips

However, that front-footed approach has often left them slightly vulnerable in transition, which has made for some entertaining encounters, especially against the top sides. BTTS has landed in seven of their eight matches on the European stage this term.

Newcastle certainly have the capabilities of causing problems in transition for Hansi Flick’s side, with the likes of Anthony Gordon, Harvey Barnes and Anthony Elanga who have the pace to run in behind. Because of that, we could get quite an open contest, with chances available at both ends of the field. 

There were 10 corners in the game when the sides last met, with four for the hosts and six for Barcelona. Newcastle are averaging 11.9 corners per game in the Champions League this season, with 5.5 corners for, and 6.4 corners against. Their games can be quite open and chaotic at times, which makes corners a target.

Rashford stole the show when the sides last met, but Raphinha also played a massive role on the opposite flank, and the former Leeds man also had some good chances. He registered a total of four shots, with one on target. 

The Brazilian has had plenty of involvement in the final third for Barcelona this season, and he is averaging 3.95 shots per 90. That figure drops slightly to 3.46 when playing in the Champions League, but Raphinha has landed this selection in all five of his appearances, and he was on the scoresheet against FC Copenhagen in the final league phase match. 

Rashford has recently returned from injury, and he made his first start last weekend after a four-week hiatus. Hansi Flick might be a bit cautious with his game time, but it would be difficult to leave him out of the starting XI.

If Rashford is deemed fit enough to start, Raphinha is likely to shift into a central role. Alternatively, if the Englishman is benched, Raphinha could feature in a more favourable left wing position - both of which are ideal to back the Brazilian to find success on his return to England. 

Pedri is another player who has been hindered by injuries recently, and he only played the second half against Athletic Club last time out. He should, however, be fit enough to start in midweek. The Spaniard was fouled three times at the weekend, taking his average to 2.1 fouls drawn per 90 for the season. 

In the Champions League, that rises to 2.7 fouls drawn per 90, where he has landed this selection in four out of five starts in total. That includes three fouls drawn at St James’ Park in gameweek 1 of the competition. 

Pedri draws an excellent matchup to improve those numbers even further on Tuesday night, as Newcastle are a team who like to press intensely in midfield. Eddie Howe will want to unsettle Barcelona as much as possible, and Joelinton will be the leader of the press in midfield, especially as Bruno Guimaraes is absent through injury. 

Joelinton is averaging 2.12 fouls per 90 across all competitions, and has racked up 16 fouls in his last four appearances alone, earning him a booking in three of those games. He has also been shown two yellow cards in the Champions League this season, averaging 2.27 fouls per 90. It took him just 28 minutes to find his way into the referee’s notebook when the sides met earlier in the season, and once again it looks like Joelinton could struggle against the highly-technical Barcelona midfielders. 

Fermin Lopez had three shots at St James’ Park earlier in the UCL campaign, playing the full 90 in an advanced midfield position. The 22-year-old is averaging 3.2 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and that figure actually rises slightly when playing away. Fermin has been incredibly consistent at hitting this mark in away games this season, and he has recorded at least three attempts in 11 of his last 12 starts on the road. 

He has landed this selection in three out of four Champions League away days, only failing against Chelsea. However, the Catalans were reduced to 10 men in the first half of that game, and Fermin was substituted after 60 minutes.

Harvey Barnes has 17 goal involvements from 48 appearances across all competitions this season, and he seems to save his best performances for the Champions League - he has recorded five goals and three assists in Europe this campaign. Even though he failed to land this selection on gameweek 1 against Barcelona, Barnes did still have three shots, all of which were from inside the box, and two hit the target. The winger was able to find gaps in the Barcelona backline, and on another day, could have easily found the back of the net. 

Since then, however, he has landed this selection in seven out of nine Champions League appearances. He even scored Newcastle’s only goal of the game against Man City last time out, and most of his goal contributions have come at St James’ Park. Barnes has the tools to cause Barcelona problems on the break on Tuesday night, and he will hope to make an impact in the final third.

It’s no surprise that Joelinton is the shortest priced player in the market to commit a foul in this clash given his promising record and general aggression. He’ll be even more important to Newcastle’s chances of getting something from this game given the absence of Bruno Guimaraes, which leaves Newcastle a little light in midfield.

Joelinton has committed 11 fouls across his six starts in the Champions League this season (2.27 per 90), with this record leading to Joelinton picking up two yellow cards - one of which was sustained against Barcelona when these sides met during the league phase. Newcastle committed 11 fouls in that clash, with Joelinton responsible for one of these - though the yellow card he picked up after 28 minutes made him more cautious in that encounter.

This selection did land via Super Sub on that occasion with Joe Willock coming on for Joelinton in the final 30 minutes of that clash and committing a foul. As detailed further below, Joelinton has the perfect opponents in a Barcelona midfield that will look to dominate the ball which can tempt the Brazilian into committing at least two fouls in this encounter, which appears to be the minimum level of aggression from the Newcastle midfielder. 

Everyone was talking about Pedri after the first leg meeting between the sides, he was excellent in controlling the game for Barcelona alongside Frenkie De Jong - and won three fouls in the clash from this control.

Pedri naturally invites challenges from the opposition due to how much influence he has on the game, generally speaking if you stop Pedri playing then Barcelona tend to struggle - but this is easier said than done as Newcastle found out in the league phase meeting between the sides which Pedri pretty much ran from start to finish.

I don’t think Newcastle will change their approach that much here, Pedri can only really be stopped by hauling him to the ground and his general foul won record in the Champions League reflects that ability. Pedri has drawn 12 fouls across his five starts in the Champions League this term - working out to an average of 2.70 fouls won per 90.

Joelinton and co will be very aggressive and look to push on as much as they can onto Barcelona’s midfield, naturally making Pedri a target for Newcastle’s challenges. 

The sides have already faced off in the Champions League this season, with Barcelona coming away 2-1 winners over Newcastle at St James’ Park. That game saw both sides register an xG in excess of 1.0 (1.22-1.13) from 29 match shots in total, promising an exciting and end-to-end encounter in this first leg tie.

First leg ties can sometimes be a bit pragmatic and cagey, but I think this particular clash will be one of the more entertaining of the first leg clashes in the round of 16. Newcastle will feel as though they have to take something to Barcelona next week and have seen plenty of goals in recent matches with BTTS landing in each of their last five games across all competitions - including both legs of their Champions League play-off tie against Qarabag. 

Barcelona are rarely a dull watch, and will happily play into the blow-for-blow style with Hansi Flick’s tactical setup lending itself to entertaining matches. Barcelona have seen BTTS in seven of their eight Champions League matches this season, with the exception of their 3-0 defeat to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, which was a very rare game in which Barcelona failed to score. 

The sides met in gameweek 1 of the Champions League this season, and Barcelona prevailed with a 2-1 victory at St James’ Park. Anthony Gordon scored the only goal for the hosts, latching on to a pinpoint cross in the 90th minute, although it was Marcus Rashford who stole the headlines for the Catalans with his brace. 

Gordon also wasted a huge chance in the opening minutes, as he fluffed his lines from close range. Still, Gordon will take confidence from the fact that he was able to find quality chances against Barcelona, and should be looking forward to this matchup. 

The 25-year-old is averaging 3.38 shots per 90 in the Champions League this season, and he has landed this selection in seven out of eight starts in total. The winger has scored 10 goals in the competition this season - only Kylian Mbappe has bagged more.

Glenn Nyberg is usually quite lenient with his cards, but he dished out six yellows when Newcastle hosted Barcelona at the start of the season. Joelinton was the first player to find his way into the referee’s notebook, booked for his first and only foul of the game. The Brazilian had to be cautious after that, and he was substituted after 62 minutes. 

However, with Bruno Guimaraes ruled out of this clash, Joelinton is the most senior figure for Newcastle in midfield, and he should play the full 90. He is averaging 2.12 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, landing this bet in each of his last four starts across all competitions. 

Joelinton tends to take this up a gear against the top sides, especially when buoyed on by the home crowd. He isn’t one to shy away from a duel, and should have a big defensive responsibility on Tuesday night.

Eric Garcia is another player to keep tabs on for this game, especially after Jules Kounde and Alejandro Balde were injured against Atletico Madrid last week. Garcia is likely to deputise at right back here, with Joao Cancelo on the opposite flank. 

The Spaniard has been a dependable option for Hansi Flick this season, but he is most comfortable when playing at centre back. Garcia can often struggle when isolated one-on-one, and he will likely have to deal with Harvey Barnes on the flank in midweek. That could be a bit of a mismatch, which Eddie Howe will hope his side can exploit. 

Garcia is averaging 1.23 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, rising steeply to 1.68 when playing in the Champions League. He didn't start against Newcastle when the sides met at the start of the season, but did commit three fouls at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea. 

It is very rare to see Barcelona involved in low scoring matches due to the bold approach they take with their defensive high line that Hansi Flick doesn’t seem willing to change. 

Barcelona have seen 3+ goals in all eight of their Champions League matches this season, including their league phase clash against Newcastle which Barcelona won 2-1 thanks to two goals from Marcus Rashford.

The context of this tie lends itself to a high scoring encounter too, Newcastle will know that taking a lead or even a draw into the clash next week would be valuable, even a goal down wouldn’t be a disaster for Eddie Howe’s side so they have plenty of motivation to contribute to the goal tally.

Newcastle can’t really expect to keep a clean sheet here given that they’ve failed to keep the opposition out in each of their last 13 matches across all competitions, seeing 3+ goals in 11 of these games. 

Diego Simeone’s men beat an in-form Real Sociedad side 3-2 at the weekend, and they were ruthless in the final third. Atletico racked up 24 shots and six big chances worth 2.31 xG, while the visitors were fortunate to score twice from their seven shots worth just 0.41 xG. 

The Spanish side also beat Club Brugge 4-1 in their last European outing, making the aggregate score 7-4 to book their spot in the round of 16. Atletico have been one of the more entertaining sides in the Champions League this season, and over 2.5 goals has landed in nine of their 10 games in total. The only miss was against Galatasaray in round seven, but that game finished 1-1. Atletico come into this clash in a positive run of form, and they will be looking forward to this matchup.

Spurs haven’t quite been as enterprising, but they have at least regularly been able to find the back of the net, with 17 goals scored in their eight league phase matches. The Lilywhites only lost one game in that stretch, which was against PSG, so were able to automatically qualify for the round of 16. 

However, since their last European match, Spurs have lost five and drawn one in the Premier League, and Igor Tudor has replaced Thomas Frank at the helm. That managerial change hasn’t provided much respite for Spurs fans, as their team have still struggled to restrict chances for their opponents. Tottenham have conceded 15 goals in those six matches alone. 

Atletico Madrid are averaging 6.47 corners per game this season across all competitions, rising significantly to 7.81 when playing on home turf. They will want to secure a positive result to take to London in the second leg, so Atletico should be front-footed on Tuesday night.

Ademola Lookman featured alongside Alexander Sorloth at the weekend, and he racked up four shots before being replaced after 53 minutes. The Nigerian international is likely to operate in a more natural left midfield role on Tuesday night, and he will want to capitalise on this matchup against a leaky Tottenham rearguard, who are missing several key first-team players. 

Lookman has adapted seamlessly to life in Spain after completing the move from Atalanta at the start of January, and he is averaging 3.44 shots per 90 across all competitions. He is swiftly becoming a fan-favourite at the Metropolitano, and has scored four goals in just eight starts for his new club. That includes getting on the scoresheet against Barcelona in the Copa del Rey, while Lookman also found the back of the net against Club Brugge on his Champions League debut for Atletico.

Despite receiving a straight red card in his last game against Crystal Palace, Micky Van De Ven will be available for selection in the Champions League, and is likely to retain his starting spot. He made a significant contribution to the outcome of the game on Thursday night, but it was not a positive one. After his dismissal, Ismaila Sarr went on to convert the penalty to level the scores, and Palace scored twice before the end of the first-half to take the game away from Spurs. 

Van De Ven is averaging 1.01 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has landed this selection in all three games under the new manager. The Dutchman is averaging 2.17 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this campaign, and has recorded multiple infringements in five of his six starts overall. He has also been shown three yellow cards in that time.

The Argentina international was sent off against Man United, and so is yet to play under Igor Tudor, but he should come straight into the starting XI in midweek. 

Romero is averaging 1.3 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, which has translated to nine yellow cards and two reds in just 28 appearances. Igor Tudor wants his centre backs to be more aggressive in their press, to squeeze up tight to try and win the ball back quickly. That left them exposed against Crystal Palace - Micky Van de Ven committed two fouls in 38 minutes and was sent off, while Kevin Danso fouled three times in the game.

Romero will have his hands full trying to deal with the Atletico attackers here, and it might take him some time to adjust to the new system. It has been a tough start to life in London for Igor Tudor, and the Tottenham squad don’t quite seem capable of executing his tactical system effectively. 

That game against Palace was heavily influenced by the red card, but Fulham also had plenty of success in the final third against Spurs before that. Marco Silva’s men racked up 2.28 xG from 18 shots, despite racing to a two-goal lead after just 34 minutes, and taking a back seat in possession after that. 

This is an excellent matchup for Sorloth, who has scored in each of his last seven starts at the Metropolitano. That includes a hat-trick in his last European outing against Club Brugge. 

Sorloth is averaging 4.93 shots per 90 when playing at home this season, and that figure rises to an eye-catching 6.26 in the Champions League. He is adept at picking gaps in opposing defences, and using his physicality to carve out chances, and he should find success against Spurs. Sorloth looks set to partner Julian Alvarez up front, and the former Man City man is a very different type of player, which makes the partnership work well. 

Alvarez is a lot more nimble and energetic, he is willing to press intensely from the front and sometimes drop deeper into midfield to try and win the ball back. He is averaging 1.18 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this season - registering at least one foul in seven out of nine starts, while he has also managed two fouls in three of those matches, including against Arsenal in the league phase.

Tottenham suffered their fifth successive defeat against Crystal Palace last time out, meaning they are now just one point above the relegation zone. Spurs have been woeful at the back, with 15 goals conceded in their last six matches alone, and Atletico Madrid should be excited for this matchup.

Alexander Sorloth, in particular, should be licking his lips at the prospect of facing Spurs, especially considering that he netted a hat-trick in his last Champions League outing at the Metropolitano against Club Brugge. The Norwegian international racked up five shots in that game, with four hitting the target. Prior to that, Sorloth had eight shots against Bodo/Glimt, with five of those on target. 

He is averaging 4.93 shots per 90 on home turf this season, and has scored 12 goals in his last nine matches across all competitions, landing this selection in all of those games.

It’s hard to see how Tottenham pull together the resilience to get something out of this first leg tie, they are in a dire position and their focus may not even be on the Champions League at the moment given that they are in a relegation battle and take on Liverpool in between their two legs against Atletico Madrid.

Tottenham then have a six pointer against Nottingham Forest to contest, so Igor Tudor may end up having to sacrifice the Champions League just to keep Tottenham in the Premier League. On the other hand, this tie represents a real opportunity for Atletico Madrid to gain some momentum ahead of the latter stages of the competition - with this likely to be Diego Simeone’s last chance to win the Champions League with Atletico Madrid.

Atletico Madrid have won 12 of their 14 home matches in LaLiga this season, with only Barcelona picking up more points at home than Simeone’s side in the Spanish top flight this term. Atletico Madrid are also in excellent form ahead of this clash, having won four of their last five matches across all competitions - the exact opposite of Tottenham’s record with the North London side losing each of their last five matches across all competitions.

Michael Olise can now be considered world class in my opinion, he didn’t actually have too much to do to get there after his displays for Bayern Munich last season - but the consistency to replicate those performances and numbers is now what makes him a truly elite player and one that Bayern can look to rely on here, with Harry Kane being a doubt for the game.

Olise has taken 25 shots across his seven appearances in the Champions League this term (3.57 per 90), with eight of those attempts finding the target (1.14 per 90). One aspect of his game that has improved under Vincent Kompany is his shot volume. Olise maintains a similar shot output in the Bundesliga (3.77 per 90) and is actually a bit better at finding the target domestically, with 38 of those efforts finding the target (51% shot accuracy).

Furthermore, Olise actually maintained the exact same shot average in the Champions League last season with 41 shots across his 13 starts in the competition (3.57 per 90). He should get chances here with Bayern likely to contest this clash without Harry Kane, which is a blow to their overall chances, but should allow for players like Olise to step up and fill that gap with at least one shot on target in this clash.

Atalanta will be aware that their chances of progressing in this tie are slim, but they must build a platform to compete in the away leg, starting with this first match in front of their own supporters. They’ve seen both teams score in each of their last five games ahead of this one, and are without a win in their last three - with their two most recent outings both ending in 2-2 draws.

Bayern Munich, by contrast, have won each of their last five matches across all competitions, with three of those also featuring BTTS. Atalanta showed they can cause problems on their day by putting four past Dortmund in the home leg of their Champions League play-off tie against Niko Kovač’s side, and they’ll be confident of causing Bayern similar issues here. Bayern, for their part, may feel they have the firepower to overturn any deficit Atalanta manage to establish in this first leg.

Atalanta have seen BTTS in four of their five home Champions League games this season, including in victories over the likes of Chelsea and Dortmund. While Bayern Munich represent a significant step up in quality, Atalanta will know they need to push for at least one goal to have any real chance when they travel to the Allianz Arena next week.

I’ve always found Upamecano to be a bit clumsy as a centre back for an elite side in Europe, he’s always had a bit of vulnerability about him, which usually comes to the fore in these sorts of matches. He’s got a decent foul record in the Champions League this season, and a decent opponent to try and draw that foul out of him.

Upamecano has committed nine fouls across his seven starts in the Champions League this season, working out to an average of 1.43 fouls committed per 90. This record has earned Upamecano two yellow cards in the Champions League, and he is usually left as one of the last lines of defence with Bayern pushing onto the opposition and playing with a high defensive line to allow their press to be effective.

Upamecano will be faced up by Gianluca Scamacca, who can be a real handful. He’s won eight fouls across his five starts in the Champions League this season (1.87 per 90), and will be able to cause Upamecano problems when Atalanta look to get the ball into him to hold up play and get the Italian side up the pitch. Upamecano’s centre back partner in Jonathan Tah is priced as low as 1.18 to commit a foul here, so taking the Frenchman at a slightly higher price seems a solid option. 

Atalanta are averaging 4.3 corners per game in the Champions League this season, and have covered this line in four of their five home matches in the competition. All four of those games saw Atalanta register at least five corners, which was the exact tally that they registered in beating Dortmund at home in the play-off tie to set up this intriguing clash.

Bayern Munich will dominate this game from open play, but Atalanta can get chances from set pieces. Four of Atlanta’s 14 goals in the Champions League this season have come from set pieces or penalties, which may not sound like a lot, but set pieces and penalties actually account for 44% of the total goals that Atalanta have scored in Serie A this season - showing just how much the Italian side have to rely on those avenues to goal. 

The way Atalanta approach this game from a tactical point of view also lends itself to a decent corner count, with the Serie A outfit likely to sit in a low-mid block and look to take their opportunities against Bayern when they emerge in transition. This usually involves running the channels, and Atalanta’s 3-4-3 structure gives them plenty of players in those wide areas that can win corners and offer them some relief.

Atalanta will know that they have a slim chance of coming through this tie, but must give themselves a platform to compete in the away leg, with this first leg being in front of their own supporters. Atalanta have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches ahead of this game, failing to win each of their last three games, with their last two matches ending in 2-2 draws.

Bayern Munich have won each of their last five matches across all competitions, with three of those games seeing BTTS. Atalanta managed to put four goals past Dortmund in the home leg of their Champions League play-off tie against Niko Kovac’s side, so they are capable of causing Bayern Munich problems here - who may feel as though they’ll be able to overcome any lead that Atalanta can establish in the first leg.

Atalanta have seen BTTS in four of their five home matches in the Champions League this season, including wins over the likes of Chelsea and Dortmund. Bayern Munich are a massive step up in terms of the quality of opposition, but Atalanta will need to push for at least a goal here to stand a chance in the clash against Bayern at the Allianz Arena next week.

Atalanta were able to complete an impressive turnaround in the previous round of the Champions League, as they overcame Dortmund in Bergamo. Going into the second leg with a 2-0 deficit, Atalanta knew they had to be front-footed, and Mario Pasalic played a key role in the comeback. The Croatian international completed the full 90 in midfield, and even scored the third goal of the game, which put Atalanta ahead. 

Pasalic comes into this clash in notable form, and has popped up with some crucial goals recently. He scored against Lazio last week in the Coppa Italia semi-finals, and even bagged against Napoli in the league. Pasalic has been the man for the big occasion in recent weeks, and he should keep his starting spot alongside Marten De Roon in midfield. The Dutchman is more defensive-minded in the partnership, which allows Pasalic to get forward into promising positions. 

Dortmund were the catalysts of their own downfall in the previous round of the Champions League, as they capitulated in Bergamo to squander a 2-0 lead from the first leg. Three of the four goals were very easily preventable, but it was Lazar Samardzic who delivered the hammer blow in the 98th minute from the penalty spot. Atalanta will once again hope for a positive result against a German side, although Bayern Munich will be a much tougher challenge.

The Bavarians have won seven of their eight Champions League matches this season - they finished 2nd in the league phase standings, and didn’t need a play-off fixture to progress to the round of 16. Despite their dominance, Michael Olise is averaging 1.99 fouls per 90 and has landed this selection in all seven of his starts on the European stage this term. 

Jack Clarke’s dribbling ability is a very well documented aspect of his game, he glides past players effortlessly at times, but this also makes him a target for preventing dangerous attacks via illegal means. 

Clarke was on the bench at the weekend, and given past trends in Ipswich matches this season, this means he’s likely to play nearly 90 minutes on Tuesday, further increasing the amount of situations where he can be fouled. The Ipswich winger is currently being fouled an average of 2.46 times per 90. Those averages are extremely similar to the last full season he played in the Championship, where he was receiving 2.44 fouls per 90 while at Sunderland. 

Stoke have plenty of tenacious and aggressive players in their central midfield positions, and Clarke does enjoy drifting into central areas while carrying the ball. Ben Pearson averages 1.66 fouls per 90, Steven N’Zonzi commits 1.27 fouls per 90, and Tatsuki Seko commits 1.35 fouls per 90.

After making the controversial move from Norwich to Ipswich in the summer, Nunez has been deployed in a more attacking role during his time at Portman Road. His exceptional passing range, along with his ability to break lines, is an instrumental asset for Ipswich in the final third. 

It’s, therefore, no surprise that Nunez has racked up eight assists in the Championship this season. He’s currently going at 0.40 assists per 90. Taking into account his price of 4.33, it’s fair to speculate there’s an edge here. 

The Ipswich man takes corners and free kicks, offering more opportunities to contribute creatively. With Stoke conceding 15 goals from set pieces this season, an average of one goal every 2.4 games, there’s the potential for Nunez to increase these numbers on Tuesday evening. Nunez ranks in the top 10 of the division for both chances created and xA (expected assists).

Since joining on loan from Como in the summer, Ivan Azon has scored four goals from his 28 Championship appearances for Ipswich this term, and two of those have come in his last four starts alone. Azon has still been heavily involved in the final third for his side, averaging 3.88 shots per 90 this season. Even though that figure drops to 3.64 on the road, Azon has consistently been able to get over this line, and he has landed this bet in each of his last six starts.  

The vast majority of his efforts tend to come from inside the box, and he should be able to find chances here against Stoke. The Potters are averaging 12.4 shots conceded per game in the Championship this season, and Ipswich registered 16 attempts in the reverse fixture at Portman Road. 

Tatsuki Seko is averaging 1.31 fouls per 90 this season in the Championship, operating in a defensive midfield role for the Potters. That average rises to 1.58 when playing at the bet365 Stadium, highlighting how the Japan international plays with a bit more intensity in front of a home crowd. 

He should have plenty of duels to contest on Tuesday night, as Ipswich rank 3rd in the Championship standings, and 3rd for total fouls drawn this season. Seko should find duels against Azor Matusiwa and Dan Neil in midfield here, while Jack Clarke also likes to cut inside from the left wing, which means he could also occupy a similar zone of the field as Seko. The winger is averaging 2.25 fouls drawn per 90 in the Championship this campaign.

Bayer Leverkusen saw out a goalless stalemate in their last Champions League outing, which ensured they progressed to the next round.

The German side secured a 2-0 win in the first leg, but this time they will play the first leg at home. Leverkusen have also been dealt a much more difficult draw, as they will face Premier League table-toppers Arsenal. The Gunners finished top of the charts in the league phase, with a flawless record of eight wins from eight. 

Leverkusen will know the importance of taking a positive result to the Emirates in the second leg, and Alex Grimaldo will be a player to watch for the hosts. The Spaniard is given plenty of attacking license on the left wing, and he scored against Man City at the Etihad Stadium back in round five of the Champions League. 

It’s almost impossible to go against Arsenal in the Champions League at the moment. I grew up with Arsenal being a nearly side in the Champions League - or out of the competition altogether - but Arteta has made them serious competitors and a side that is suited to knockout football with how good they are defensively.

Arsenal have won all eight of their Champions League matches this season, making them the only side to do so in the group stage. They scored more goals than any other side (23). They conceded fewer than any other side (4), so it is no exaggeration to say that Arsenal have been the best side in Europe so far this season - and they should be able to go deep in the competition given the bracket that they’ve been drawn into.

Leverkusen had to battle through a playoff round to reach the last 16, and, truthfully, don’t really have the quality to go toe-to-toe with Arsenal. I think they’ll look pragmatic, but Arsenal will eventually find a way through this, given their ability on set pieces and their general dominance in European matches.

Allowing Arsenal to win a corner in a game is as bad as giving away a penalty, with how ruthless Mikel Arteta’s side can be from these set-piece situations. Arsenal have won 44 corners across their eight Champions League matches this season, averaging 5.50 per game. 

21 of these corners have come across their four away matches in the Champions League (5.25 per game), showing that Arsenal can still maintain a decent corner count when on the road. There isn’t a better side in Europe at the moment than Arsenal when it comes to dictating the tempo and direction of a game. Arteta’s side are always in complete control and rarely allow their opponents to get a foothold in the contest.

Leverkusen have conceded 20 corners across their five home matches in the Champions League this term (4.00 per game). Arsenal are the perfect side to force a rise in this average, and should be able to impose themselves on Leverkusen to register at least five corners in this clash, with set pieces being a key weapon in Arsenal’s armoury this season.

Eberechi Eze has found his way back into the starting lineup across recent weeks, with the 27-year-old starting each of Arsenal’s last three Premier League matches.

He’s had to win over Arteta this season, who always prioritises control, but is set to earn a start in the Champions League here and should be able to win at least one foul.

Eze loves to carry the ball through central areas. He’s won 28 fouls across his 16 starts in the Premier League this season - working out to an average of 1.78 fouls won per 90. Eze has also won six fouls across his five starts in the Champions League this term (1.28 per 90), so winning fouls is a pretty consistent part of his game, which can come to the fore here as Leverkusen look to stifle the Gunners.

Christian Kofane can be a real handful and should be able to cause Arsenal problems here, given his recent form. Kofane first really caught my attention at AFCON earlier this year, where he netted twice in four starts, taking 13 shots (3.56 per 90).

Taking on Arsenal in the Champions League is quite the step up in quality from AFCON, but I think Kofane has the traits to be a successful striker in Europe. He’s only 19, so he’s got plenty of time to develop, but already looks to be a real threat with five goals across just nine starts in the Bundesliga this season. 

He’s taken 35 shots across these starts (3.27 per 90), showing that he can replicate that promising, but small, sample size at AFCON in a top league. This average drops slightly in the Champions League to 1.93 shots per 90, but he should improve with every game at this level and will fancy his chances of causing Arsenal issues, having scored in each of his last two games ahead of this clash.

After getting a favourable draw against Olympiacos in the Champions League playoff round, Leverkusen have been given a much tougher matchup for the round of 16. They host Arsenal in the first leg on Wednesday night, and it could be a difficult night for the German side. 

Edmond Tapsoba, in particular, could have his hands full, as he will most likely draw the matchup of Bukayo Saka on the flank. Alex Grimaldo often looks to push forward into advanced areas, meaning Tapsoba has to cover plenty of ground on the defensive front. Saka has recently returned from injury and has drawn 11 fouls in his last five starts. He is averaging 2.15 fouls drawn per 90 this season. 

Tapsoba is only averaging 0.9 fouls draw per 90 this season, which is nothing spectacular. Still, he has landed this selection in each of his last four matches, and this promises to be one of his toughest matchups of the season. 

I fancy both of these teams to finish in the top half by the end of the season, but there is still work to be done on both sides and lessons to be learned from this season.

At this stage, neither team believes it is a realistic contender for the top six, but neither will admit it. To me, this suggests that both teams are happy to go for the win and play with some sense of abandon. Even if one team goes a goal down, they are likely to open up and try to hit back. It seems like fertile ground for a potential BTTS-Yes bet.

This is only strengthened further when analysing both teams. Norwich drew a blank at Leeds in the FA Cup, but they still created 1.2 xG in that match. In the Championship, they have scored in eight of their last ten, 19 goals in that period. Over the season as a whole, they have created 1.43 xG per match, but also conceded 1.27 xG, so there have been chances at both ends.

It would have been a big disappointment not to convert a 1-0 lead over struggling West Brom on Saturday, but the fact that that match ended 1-1 is further evidence to suggest that Sheff Utd are a good team for a BTTS-Yes bet, That is the third time in four matches that BTTS-Yes has landed for the Blades and their xG data for the season backs this up.

United have created 1.73 xG per match but have also conceded 1.35 xG, so away from home it becomes 1.5 v 1.5. There have been chances, even if they have kept two clean sheets in a row away from home. Norwich have the firepower to convert those chances.

Oxford have given themselves a great chance of escaping from the Championship trapdoor with back-to-back wins in the last week. Now they take a relegation rival back to the Kassam with the chance to go within a point of Rovers and drag them into the battle as well.

Matt Bloomfield has organised Oxford and made them effective off the ball; this was in evidence against Preston on Friday night. There was a willingness to press high when possible, but also a good shape about them when the opposition had good possession of the ball.

The main thing, though, has been that Oxford have been physically aggressive, especially going forward. They have scored five goals from set pieces or second balls from set pieces, and whilst Blackburn themselves are a physically strong group, they are near the bottom for a reason; they are lacking in confidence and have underperformed in both boxes.

It was a header from a centre back that saved Rovers from defeat against Portsmouth on Saturday, albeit not from a set piece, but Rovers have generally struggled away from home since winter kicked in. They have won once in ten away matches in all competitions, and even that saw their first three shots find the net against QPR.

Rovers now have a -0.5 xG differential in away matches over their last 30 games, and haven’t created more than one xG in four of their last five away Championship games.

West Brom defender George Campbell made BTTS come in all on his own against Sheffield United on Saturday. Still, there are signs that the caretaker team led by James Morrison have made changes that have produced more attacking threat for the Baggies.

They have scored and created over 1 xG, in each of their last three matches, which is better than the previous record of not scoring in four of their previous five.

However, while they have scored in each of their last three, they have also conceded in all of those matches. Indeed, they have conceded in five straight matches, and an average of 1.7 goals conceded per match in their last 30 matches. 

Southampton are definitely having no problem scoring goals. They have scored in 12 successive matches in all competitions, averaging 2.1 goals per game in their last 10. That is an overperformance from their xG of 1.47 over that same time frame, but they are conceding 1.11 xG over that time as well.

Also, it should be mentioned that both teams are really desperate for the points. West Brom are embroiled in a relegation battle, and Southampton need the maximum points to try and chase down Wrexham in sixth.

Vinicius Junior is the main man for Real Madrid at the moment, with Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe being doubts for this fixture and Rodrygo ruled out altogether. This leaves Vinicius as the only real superstar in the Real Madrid squad at the moment, and you get the feeling that he’ll have to shoulder most of the attacking responsibilities if Los Blancos are to get a result here.

Vinicius scored in both legs of Real Madrid’s Champions League success against Benfica in their play-off tie to reach this round of the competition. Vinicius has registered seven goal contributions across his nine starts in the Champions League this term - only Mbappe (14) has registered more goal contributions for Real Madrid in the Champions League this season than Vinicius.

Once again, Real Madrid and Man City will face off in the Champions League, and their last meeting was in round six of the league phase.

Man City came away with a 2-1 victory at the Bernabeu, and they were the dominant side. Los Blancos were without their talisman, Kylian Mbappe, and he looks set to miss out again midweek, as he continues to be hampered by injury. 

That means Vinicius Jr looks set to lead the line, and he will have a massive responsibility in the final third. He registered four shots when he last faced Man City and was unfortunate not to score, given that he had two big chances.

The Brazilian international also landed this selection in both knockout fixtures against Man City last season, with three shots at the Etihad, and three shots at the Bernabeu. 

These sides are very familiar with each other, having faced off in the Champions League regularly in each of the last few seasons. That familiarity should create quite an equal contest, but one that does see goals at both ends - in line with each of the last five meetings between the sides.

Real Madrid won three of their four home matches in the league phase of the Champions League, with these games seeing 14 goals (4.66 per game). Arbeloa hasn’t been able to implement an effective defensive structure during his time at the club so far, so Real Madrid are almost completely reliant on the attacking talent of individual players to get them through games.

Man City carry the better form into this fixture and have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions. Pep Guardiola has found a way to put together one of City’s infamous mid season runs which has seen City avoid defeat in each of their last 11 matches across all competitions.

Man City are averaging only 9.95 fouls per game across all competitions this season, but they racked up 17 infringements against Real Madrid when the sides met in the league phase.

They have now met in each of the last five Champions League campaigns, and are becoming a familiar opponent. Once again, a feisty affair is expected on Wednesday night, and Real Madrid will want to take a positive result to the Etihad for the second leg. 

Rayan Cherki accounted for one of City’s fouls when these sides last met, before he was substituted after 71 minutes. The French international averages 0.84 fouls per 90 minutes this season across all competitions, but that rises notably to 1.21 away from home. Cherki recorded three infringements in his last away start, which was against Leeds, and he has landed this selection in seven out of nine starts on the road as a Man City player.

Semenyo has embedded himself seamlessly in the Manchester City machine, and has emerged as their most reliable attacker since his arrival from Bournemouth.

I wondered if he could transition from being such a talisman in a small side, to being a cog in a bigger machine, when in fact he’s just becoming a talisman for the bigger team.

Domestically, he’s averaged 1.13 shots on target per 90 for Manchester City. He averaged 1.35 per 90 in the league whilst at Bournemouth.

Since signing, he has had one or more shots on target in nine of his 11 starts, and he’s scored seven goals along the way.

In 2025/26, he has started 36 matches, and this selection has landed in 31 of them.

Real are a bit all over the place in terms of their defensive selections. Ferland Mendy returned at the weekend, so he will likely start at left back, and although that is positive for them; he is perhaps lacking some sharpness, and Semenyo is not the type of player you want to be facing after a long lay-off.

Valverde is often a player I think that is misprofiled, and I see people backing foul bets with him in, with little substance. More based on his reputation. He is busy, industrious and aggressive, but in his role at right back for Real, with the game largely in front of him, he’s more measured.

However, with issues across the side in terms of injuries, and the return of Trent Alexander-Arnold, he’s been back in midfield.

In midfield, he has made a foul in five of his last six matches, including two at the weekend against Celta Vigo and four in the Champions League play-off against Benfica.

In total, he’s made nine fouls across his last six appearances. That’s an average of 1.60 fouls per 90 minutes, which is a big jump from his domestic average this season of 0.69.

A player who is now averaging 1.60 fouls per 90, shouldn’t be priced at 1.57. 

Also, factoring in potential opponents and their fouls drawn numbers, there's a lot to go at here. Rayan Cherki (2.04), Rodri (1.95) and Jeremy Doku (2.86) are three of City’s stat leaders in that department.

Kylian Mbappe is still a doubt for this game, opening the door for Vinicius Junior to be Real Madrid’s talisman again. Vinicius often takes on a more proactive role when Mbappe isn’t in the side, and this game should be no different, with the Brazilian often saving his best form for the Champions League.

Vinicius has taken an eye-catching 35 shots across his nine starts in the Champions League this season, working out to an average of 3.89 shots per 90. You always have a decent chance of hitting the target with this kind of shot volume, and what’s notable about Vinicius' shot output is that it tends to increase when Mbappe is not in the side.

Of those 35 attempts, 12 have found the target in the Champions League (1.33 per 90). Vinicius’ numbers are almost identical in La Liga this season:

3.27 shots per 90

1.37 shots on target per 90

This shows that he tends to perform to a pretty consistent standard in front of goal, and has a pretty decent record when it comes to taking aim against Manchester City. He’s had 13 shots across the last five meetings between the sides, managing at least three shots in four of those matches.

I’m always really interested to see how Guardiola develops players, he isn’t afraid to move players around in different positions - as we’ve seen with Matheus Nunes over the last few seasons.

Semenyo has been playing quite centrally in recent matches, with Guardiola looking to make the most of how comfortable Semenyo is on both feet. This slight position change should lead to a rise in how often Semenyo is hauled to the ground, he’s averaging 0.68 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season, which is why he’s priced like this to win a single foul.

Semenyo’s strength and power is commonplace in the Premier League, but a real standout feature of his game when playing in Europe. He’ll be making his Champions League debut for Manchester City here, and I think that power will serve him well against a Real Madrid side that can be quite petulant.

Real Madrid committed 16 fouls when they welcome Benfica to the Bernabeu in the second leg of their playoff tie against Jose Mourinho, with Tchouameni responsible for three of these fouls. If Semenyo is pushed back out to his usual role on the wing, he’ll face off against Camavinga and Carreras, who committed a foul each in that win over Benfica - and are averaging 3.34 fouls committed per 90 between them in the Champions League this season.

Real Madrid come into this clash on a high, as they managed to beat Celta Vigo at the Balaidos Stadium last time out, thanks to a 94th-minute winner.

It was Fede Valverde who scored the goal, which was a deflected effort from outside the box. Still, it would have been an incredible feeling for the Uruguay international to see the back of the net bulge, as he earned his side a crucial three points.

Valverde has featured in a more advanced role on the right wing since Alvaro Arbeloa has taken over at the helm, which has massively increased his prospects going forward. In fact, the Real Madrid skipper has racked up five shots in his last two starts alone.

He is averaging 1.36 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, which is impressively high considering he has played at right back for large parts of the campaign. 

Pep Guardiola opted for some rotation in Man City’s weekend game against Newcastle, but his side still managed to cruise to a 3-1 victory at St James’ Park. Gianluigi Donnarumma, Marc Guehi, Rodri, and Bernardo Silva were all unused substitutes, and they should be well-rested and ready for this upcoming clash against Man City. 

These sides met in round six of the league phase, and it was a feisty affair, with a total of six cards shown and 31 fouls. Silva was responsible for three of those infringements, which were enough to earn him a yellow card. The Portuguese international should again have plenty of defensive work to get through on Wednesday night, and he has been carded in two of his last three trips to the Bernabeu.

Silva tends to play with a greater intensity against the top sides, and he should play the full 90 midweek.

Matheus Nunes was also amongst the fouls, as he finished the game with two infringements to his name. The fullback was also fouled three times, though, which was the joint-most of anyone in the Man City eleven.

Nunes is a bit of an underrated player in this Man City system, and he is averaging 1.11 fouls drawn per 90. That number rises to 1.33 when Man City play away, and he landed this selection against Newcastle at the weekend. 

Nunes has started four Champions League games this season, and he was fouled exactly three times in two of those - one was against Real Madrid at the Bernabeu, and the other was against Villarreal at the La Ceramica Stadium.

Nunes likes having the ball at his feet, and dribbling is one of his biggest strengths. He is adept at drawing contact and should see plenty of duels against an aggressive Real Madrid side.

There are several high profile matches in this round of the Champions League, and this one may not meet that threshold on paper, but I think it will be an enjoyable tie to track given the opportunity that both sides find themselves in.

Bodo Glimt have been one of the stories of the season in the Champions League, and their games have been filled with goals. Bodo Glimt have seen BTTS in each of their last four Champions League matches ahead of this tie, managing to win all of these games against the likes of Inter, Man City and Atletico Madrid.

Sporting’s eight matches in the Champions League this season have produced 28 goals (3.5 per game). 14 of these matches have come across their four away matches (3.5 per game), showing how willing Sporting are to get involved in high scoring matches on the road. 

Bodo/Glimt have been the shock overperformers in the Champions League this season, and they have been drawn against Sporting in the round of 16, hoping to keep their dreams alive.

The Portuguese side come into this tie in excellent form, unbeaten in any of their last eleven matches, and Luis Suarez has been a big reason for that, as the Colombian international has scored eleven goals in that stretch. 

In addition to his goalscoring exploits, Luis Suarez is averaging 1.95 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, rising to 3.01 when playing in the Champions League. He has landed this selection in all six starts in Europe this season, highlighting how opposing defenders have struggled to contain him. 

Bodo are only averaging 9.25 fouls per game in the Champions League this season, but their centre-backs, Jostein Gundersen and Odin Lucas Bjortuft, rank highest for infringements. 

The Champions League fairytale continues for Bodo/Glimt, as they secured a 5-2 aggregate win over Inter Milan in the playoff round.

Jens Petter Hauge once again played a pivotal role, and he was on the scoresheet in both legs against the Italian giants. That means he has now scored six goals in the Champions League this season, ranking sixth in the competition's scoring charts. 

Bodo/Glimt were written off by matchday six in the Champions League, but they have since beaten Man City, Atletico Madrid, and Inter Milan (twice). The Norwegian side have proven they can compete against the elites, especially at the Aspmyra Stadium.

Hauge has landed this selection in all four of his European starts on home turf, and he will once again have to be on top form if Bodo are to stand a chance of progressing. 

Hauge is very accurate with his shots. He’s averaged 0.99 shots on target in the Champions League. He’s hitting the target at a rate of 56.3%, which is incredible efficiency.

He doesn’t have a huge shot volume at 1.76 per 90, but when he does strike, it’s usually because he’s created a worthwhile opening. Bodo aren’t a wasteful side; they pick their moments and craft out high-value chances. 

Hauge has scored six times already for Bodo in the competition this season. He has hit the target in seven of his 10 starts and in four of his last five in Europe’s elite competition.

He scored in both legs against Inter, hitting the target three times across the two legs. He also netted against Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund. He’s in red-hot form, and you’ve got to fancy him to hit the target again here. Especially if Bodo have as much of the game as I expect them to.

Bodo have been an absolute joy so far, and I can’t see them slipping up here. In such harsh conditions, sides have metaphorically and literally frozen when taking on the Norwegian outfit.

They’ve toppled Inter and Man City in their last two home Champions League games. Their metrics fly through the roof at home - more shots, more corners, a higher xG, and more possession when they play on their own patch.

Sporting had a great league phase, but they were heavily reliant on their pristine home form, and their only away win came on the final matchday, as they dramatically beat Bilbao 3-2.

Glimt have also really impressed on the road recently, winning at Atleti and Inter, and drawing with Dortmund. Still, you’ve got to imagine that a home result here is incredibly important to their chances of qualification. I think they’ll get a positive result to take to Portugal.

Jens Petter Hauge is again an important component here. He is the biggest threat in the Bodo side, and Sporting know they need to shut him down in order to get a good result.

He’s been fouled nine times across his last five Champions League matches, and has drawn an average of 1.43 per 90 throughout the competition, but he’s been particularly special lately, so those numbers have been on the rise.

Hauge does like to drop in and get on the ball, as he looks to craft out chances from deeper positions, so it’s worth looking at Catano for a foul, as he’ll be playing on the right side of midfield for Sporting.

Domestically, he has averaged 1.04 fouls per 90, including three at the weekend as Sporting drew with Braga in the league.

At 1.40, I like those odds in a bet builder. You could go for the right back in a more direct matchup, but you’re looking at 1.14 odds for that.

Goals have been a big thing for both sides throughout their European campaigns to this point.

Sporting matches have averaged a hefty 3.50 goals, and seven of their eight matches saw three or more scored - all eight saw at least two, so a 100% strike rate for this selection.

As for Bodo, goals come with the territory. They’re extremely high energy. They’re aggressive in their press and expansive when they do have the ball; we saw both those elements to full effect over the two legs against Inter, most notably when they capitalised on Inter’s slack passing at the back.

Seven of Bodo’s eight Champions League games saw at least two match goals scored, with an average of 3.60 goals per match, which remained steady at home as well, where there was an average of 3.50 match goals.

I’m braced for another fantastic clash here.

Moises Caicedo ranks fifth out of all Premier League players for total fouls committed this season, averaging 1.72 fouls per 90. He has been even more aggressive in the Champions League, and that figure rises to 1.88 fouls per 90. 

Caicedo has landed this selection in six of his eight starts in the competition overall, including all four of his European away outings. Caicedo racked up three fouls against Napoli last time out in the Champions League and was fortunate to escape a booking. He also registered two infringements against Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena in the league phase.  

Once again, the Ecuador international will expect to be kept busy on Wednesday night, as Chelsea travel to the Parc des Princes to face PSG. Caicedo will have to deal with the likes of Kvicha Kvaratskhelia, Desire Doue, and Vitinha, which promises to be no easy task. 

This is set to be a very entertaining tie between two sides who won’t sit back and have plenty of attacking talent. PSG come into this game having seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions, including both legs of their playoff tie against Monaco.

Chelsea have been impressive at times under Liam Rosenior, but keeping clean sheets hasn’t been their strength, with the Blues managing just three clean sheets across Rosenior’s 15 games in charge so far - with two of these coming against Pafos and Hull City. 

Chelsea have seen BTTS in 11 of these games, showing how Rosenior's ultra modern structure and approach usually leads to goals at both ends. There’s plenty of needle between these sides as well, with PSG losing 3-0 to Chelsea in the Club World Cup final last summer - paving the way for both sides to go blow for blow in this first leg tie.

Luis Enrique really isn’t afraid to chop and change players in his squad, no matter how key they may seem, and this precedent also applies to the goalkeeper. Lucas Chevalier was brought in at the start of the campaign as a replacement for Donnarumma - but he has spent the last nine games on the bench for the reigning European champions.

I never thought Donnarumma needed replacing if I’m honest, but Enrique’s argument was that he wanted a keeper that is better with his feet - a common wish of modern managers. Matvey Safonov has taken Chevalier’s place over these recent matches and has been forced into making 17 saves across his eight starts in Ligue 1 (2.12 saves per 90).

Safonov also played in both legs of PSG’s triumph over Monaco in the playoff round to reach this stage of the competition, and is maintaining a save average of exactly 2.00 saves per 90 in the Champions League this term. Monaco managed to score four goals in that tie, so I think PSG aren’t quite solid enough at the back to keep Chelsea from testing their goalkeeper on at least two occasions. 

I’m quite surprised to see how far down Joao Pedro is in the market for a shot on target given his recent form, you can back six players at a better price for a shot on target in this clash which isn’t where I would have him given his current form and increased shot volume under Liam Rosenior.

I think Rosenior has struggled with being in the limelight a bit at times, but what is a clear strength of his is his personal relationship with his players which allows him to develop them. Joao Pedro was not shooting enough for a striker when Rosenior first stepped into the club, but is now operating at a shot volume of 2.38 per 90.

Joao Pedro has improved this rate further in his last few matches with five shots against Aston Villa and four efforts against Arsenal. When a striker is playing with confidence, they are more likely to take on shots and also demand the ball from their teammates. Joao Pedro is the most influential player in the Chelsea squad at the moment, and he has previous against PSG having netted against the club in the Club World Cup final.

This has been one of my go to selections when betting on Chelsea this season, especially in matches where the Blues are faced by a daunting away trip. One of the more buried facts about the Blueco era at Chelsea is just how poor they have been on the road against big six clubs since the new ownership took over.

Across Chelsea’s last 19 away matches against Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City - Chelsea have won just once. The Blues have the worst record of any of these sides, losing 12 of these games which I think highlights the main issue at Chelsea which is one that hasn’t changed since the new ownership and is actually quite obvious to most people looking in at the club.

Chelsea’s squad is too young and inexperienced, which naturally leads to petulance. Chelsea have picked up 13 yellow cards across their eight matches in the Champions League this season (1.6 per game) - which is bound to increase in the knockout stages of the competition.

Only three sides in the Premier League have picked up more cards than Chelsea (2.31 per game), and that aggression should translate to the Champions League now we are in the serious phase of the competition.

Both legs of PSG’s playoff tie against Monaco produced at least nine corners, with PSG registering eight corners in each match. That trend holds up more broadly under Luis Enrique - seven of PSG’s 10 Champions League fixtures this term have featured nine or more total corners.

On home soil in Europe this season, PSG have earned 33 corners across five matches, averaging 6.60 per game. Chelsea, for their part, are averaging exactly four corners per game on their Champions League travels this season and under Liam Rosenior, they’ve looked especially vulnerable from set pieces.

Rosenior has now overseen 15 matches as Chelsea boss, with 12 of those games (80%) seeing nine or more corners. Opponents are clearly targeting Chelsea from dead-ball situations, and PSG have both the quality and territorial control to do the same. 

That said, Chelsea pose a threat from such scenarios too - six of their 17 Champions League goals this season have come from penalties or set pieces, and they managed to rack up 10 corners in a recent away trip to Arsenal.

Desire Doue is one of the best players to watch in the world, and he’s incredibly effective as well as being a player you’d pay to go and see. Doue registered a goal contribution in both legs of PSG’s triumph over Monaco in the playoff round to reach this stage of the competition, netting twice in the first leg and setting up a goal in the reverse fixture.

Doue loves playing in the Champions League, he registered eight goal contributions across eight starts in the Champions League last time - including scoring in the final - and has so far registered five goal contributions in the competition across just three starts. 

His campaign has been hampered by injuries, likely due the overload that PSG faced last term by reaching the final of the Champions League and then the Club World Cup. However, Doue looks to have moved past those injury issues now and comes into this game with momentum having registered four goal contributions in his last five appearances across all competitions.

Enzo Fernandez’s role under Liam Rosenior has been fascinating to watch so far. It’s clear that the former Strasbourg boss does not see Fernandez as a deep lying midfielder, and wants to use his abilities further up the pitch which is why we’re looking at him for a shot on target in this clash.

This is Fernandez’s most productive season at Chelsea so far when measuring by goal output, he’s netted 12 goals in his 49 appearances for Chelsea across all competitions - with two of these goals coming in the Champions League. He’s taken 15 shots across his seven starts in the Champions League this term (2.26 per 90), which also represents an increase on his shot numbers in European competition last season (1.32 shots per 90).

Furthermore, Enzo Fernandez is averaging 0.90 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League this term - adding an extra layer of evidence to his chances of finding the target in this clash. The increase in his attacking output has been clear this season, and Liam Rosenior seeing Fernandez as a more advanced player should see the Argentine get away at least one attempt on target in this clash.

Chelsea’s tactical plan in the Club World Cup final centred around trying to expose the space left in behind PSG’s fullbacks, particularly Nuno Mendes. Chelsea utilised the speed of Malo Gusto in that clash, who constantly made runs beyond the fullback and set up one of Chelsea’s goals as they ran out 3-0 winners.

Luis Enrique will obviously be more aware of that threat this time around, but I don’t think it will deter him from playing in that way. Mendes has continued to bomb forward for PSG this term and often has to make recovery tackles as a result - making him an ideal option to pick up a card in this clash.

Mendes committed two fouls and was shown a yellow card in that Club World Cup final, and there should be quite a lot of traffic down his side again with the duo of Palmer and Gusto likely to be utilised in a similar manner. This gives Mendes two very different threats to think about, which can lead to his third card in the Champions League this term - he’s currently the only PSG player to have picked up two yellow cards in the Champions League this season.

Achraf Hakimi has had an injury-hit campaign so far, but the Moroccan international seems to have returned to full fitness, and he has seen plenty of attacking involvement in recent weeks.

Hakimi has landed this selection in each of his last five matches across all competitions, and even got on the scoresheet against Monaco in the Champions League. He has hit this mark in six of seven European starts this campaign, failing only against Bayern Munich. However, the 27-year-old had to be replaced at half-time in that clash after suffering an injury. 

Hakimi has landed this selection against Barcelona already this season, and he also recorded two attempts when PSG hosted Newcastle in the league phase. Despite being listed as a fullback, Hakimi seizes every available opportunity to get into the final third and doesn’t hesitate to pull the trigger. Most of his shots this season have come from outside the box, and he is also the free-kick taker for the Parisians. 

Coventry City remain at the top of the Championship standings, and their home form has been a key reason for that. They have only lost one league match this season at the Coventry Building Society Arena, and have won 13 out of 17 overall. 

The Sky Blues are the top scorers in the division by quite some distance, and they play with a lot more attacking-intent in front of a home crowd. Coventry are averaging 17.6 shots per game at home this campaign, and have racked up more shots than any other team in the Championship. 

Matt Grimes has landed this selection in eight of his last nine home starts, and he should once again be able to find promising positions against Preston here. The vast majority of his efforts have come from outside the box this season, while Grimes should also be the designated free-kick taker for his side.

Preston’s season has slowly but surely declined into mediocrity despite a promising start, I imagine it could be a very passive and defensive performance here. Preston conceded a cumulative 17 corners in tough away games against Middlesbrough and Ipswich, with both of Ipswich’s centre backs having 2+ shots. 

0.41 of Kitching’s 1.27 shots per 90 have found the target, taking into account the variables of being at home, and playing with a high level of attacking intent against a side with little to play for, I definitely feel there’s an edge on playing the Kitching shot on target at 2.30.

There’s one other really interesting stat; Preston have conceded the most shots from set pieces in the Championship, 10 more shots than any other team. This has amounted to an average of 4.97 shots conceded from set pieces per match.

It wouldn’t surprise me if tonight is something of a hammering, Coventry have put themselves in a fabulous position for automatic promotion, but there will be huge motivation to tighten their grip on the automatic promotion places. This could lead to a very aggressive and attacking performance.

I’m very open to the idea of Coventry having massive amounts of territory and possession, and this is likely to create set piece opportunities via free kicks and corners. Liam Kitching is a centre back and is currently taking 1.27 shots per 90, those are very strong numbers for a player in his position. Coventry’s aerial prowess to win the first contact from set pieces is also exemplified by the fact that Kitching’s centre back partner Bobby Thomas, is averaging 1.20 shots per 90.

I have my suspicions that this line has been priced incorrectly, perhaps based on the fact that he’s not played a massive amount of football in recent years at Brentford. Onyeka is not just a tenacious ball winner and tackler; he has the ability to drive the ball forward with speed and spearhead counter-attacking moves, and this often results in opposition players engaging in contact with him illegally. 

Indeed, since joining Coventry, Onyeka has been fouled an average of 2.55 times per 90. Those numbers have remained fairly consistent across the duration of his career. Accounting for every single season he’s played, the average fouls won per 90 hovers around 2.50.

There’s plenty of tenacity in the Preston midfield with the likes of Ali McCann and Ben Whiteman making a cumulative 2.9 fouls per 90; the most likely candidates to commit a foul on Onyeka. 

Preston North End suffered a 3-1 defeat against Oxford United last time out, making it five league games without a win.

Preston were at one point in contention for a playoff spot, but a sharp drop off in form has put them 12th in the league standings. They have struggled to control games, and this upcoming clash against Coventry City promises to be a tough one. 

Alistair McCann, in particular, could have a big role in midfield, and he is averaging 1.75 fouls per 90 in the Championship this season. That increases to 1.88 when playing away, where he has landed this selection in four of his last five starts, picking up a yellow card in three of those games.

McCann is also averaging 3.71 tackles per 90 in the league this season, which shows how he tends to get stuck into duels in midfield, and he should have plenty of defensive work to get through midweek.

Having watched Preston closely against Oxford and Blackburn in recent weeks, there is definitely something missing in their game, especially in possession. While they are unlikely to dominate the ball away at Coventry, Preston only seem effective when they don’t have the ball. You have to go back 28 matches to a home win over Charlton, where Preston have won having had more than half of the possession.

At the moment, it doesn’t seem to matter to Coventry who has the ball. They have won five in a row, and actually, they have had less than 50% possession in four of those matches, so perhaps they will cede a decent amount of it to Preston after all.

However, the key aspect of this bet is the dominance in chance creation that Coventry have demonstrated at the CBS this season. At home, they have a +1.14 xG differential per match, creating 2.29 xG per home game. Preston struggle away from home, their xG differential across this season's away fixtures sits at -0.57 xG, conceding over 1.5 xG per match to their opponents.