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Portsmouth v Wrexham Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Portsmouth v Wrexham Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

EFL
Starts Today, 20:00
Tuesday 4 November, 20254 min read
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Fans at Fratton Park are being tested a little bit. Pompey fans were expecting a season a little closer to the promotion battle than the bottom three, but another defeat on Saturday, a third in a row, makes their plight a more serious one. Wrexham, meanwhile, come into this match off the back of a massive high from being the first Championship team to beat Coventry City.

Our Football Match Stats, including Portsmouth v Wrexham, offer further insight.

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Portsmouth v Wrexham Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Portsmouth v Wrexham
  • Championship
  • 20:00
4 Selections @ 3.62

Wrexham Double Chance

At the moment I believe Wrexham to be a better team than Portsmouth. Phil Parkinson has put together a team where there are lots of round pegs in round holes and their strategy suits the players that they have as well.

Whilst they began the season giving away quite a lot of chances, that has tightened up somewhat, though they are still overpowered by top attacks. However, Portsmouth are not one of those clubs with a strong attacking unit.

Pompey have scored only ten goals, joint lowest in the league with Sheffield United and Sheffield Wednesday. They are also poorly ranked in the attacking metrics such as expected goals, shots on target and big chances creation, so it is not just an unlucky finishing streak, there are strategy and structural issues for John Mousinho to solve there.

Wrexham, I believe, do have a more defined structural effective structure of getting to goal. Kieffer Moore's hat-trick on Friday will supply him with plenty of belief, and Josh Windass is supplying him perfectly, whilst supplying a goal threat of his own.

Wrexham have actually won this bet in four of their six away games so far this season, whilst it would also have collected in five out of seven of Portsmouth's home matches.

Dominic Hyam to commit 1+ Foul

The former Blackburn centre-back has been quite revolutionary in his own understated way.

He isn't known as a particularly rough and tumble defender but his record since his debut for Wrexham makes this price a good one to include in this multiple.

Hyam didn't actually commit a foul in his first two appearances for Wrexham, but since then he has committed at least one foul in his last six starts. He is also a player who doesn't get replaced in game as well so he will have the best part of 100 minutes to commit a foul.

The other side to this is that Colby Bishop, who is likely to be a direct opponent, averages 1.34 fouls per 90 against him over Portsmouth's last 30 matches.

Hyam was pushed out to LCB with Dan Scarr being picked in the last match, which also makes him more likely from a statistical perspective to commit a foul as wide centre backs tend to commit more fouls than centre of a three CBs

Connor Oglivie to be Fouled 1+ Times

The left back will more than likely be back in the Portsmouth lineup this week and if so then he looks a tasty price to be fouled at least once against Wrexham here.

Before missing the last match, Ogilvie was going through the season having been fouled 2.12 times per 90 minutes. Playing at left-back, Ogilvie will often find himself as either the recipient of a pass whilst a press is in action, or being the press for the trigger when the ball is worked out to him, but he is certainly fouled more other than the rest of the regular starters for Portsmouth, at least until Josh Murphy is back in the fold.

Ogilvie has been fouled in nine of his twelve starts for Portsmouth this season, with many of those being multiple fouls against him.

His opposite number for the match, likely to be Issa Kabore, is a player that I have selected in this column for fouls previously as well. Kabore is averaging 1.08 fouls per 90, and since his breakthrough into the team, he has conceded a foul in five of the seven matches that he has started.

Portsmouth to take 5+ Corners

Whilst I am expecting Wrexham to perform well in this match and get something out of it, there is also plenty of evidence to support Pompey corners here.

They average 5.23 corners per match so far this season, which increases to 6.14 when only looking at games at Fratton Park. They have beaten this line in their last two home games, winning six corners in each, and they have beaten it in five of their seven home games overall.

It is also backed up by Wrexham's concession of corners data. They concede 5.46 corners per game in the Championship, 5.17 away from home. They have allowed corners over this line in four of their six away Championship league games.

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📈 Portsmouth v Wrexham Form & Tactics

Portsmouth have now lost three games in a row, the first time that this has happened in the league since last September. This is fairly symbolic because that run in early August and September 2024 left Portsmouth bottom, but the board actually showed faith in John Mousinho, awarded him with a new contract, and that seemed like genuine foresight as Mousinho went on to lead the team to a very safe midtable finish.

The springboard into this season has not materialised though. Portsmouth are really struggling going forwards, they are scoring at less than a goal a game, they are ranked 19th for xG created, but 23rd for shots on target, 22nd for big chances created, and 19th for touches in the opposition box.

The win on Friday night means that it is now only one defeat in eight Championship matches for Phil Parkinson’s men. It was also the first time in four matches that they have created over 1 xG in a single match, which is an indication of how much things have changed since the beginning of the season, where Wrexham scored quite a lot of goals, but also conceded much as well.

Indeed, the stats are still a little bit concerning from a defensive perspective, 21st in xG against, but this is steadily improving as the season goes on. There are still also positives from the attacking data, Wrexham are top six over the season for big chances created, and seventh for shots on target.


📔 Portsmouth v Wrexham Formation & Team News

Portsmouth play a 4-2-3-1 more often than not, but it has been the #9 position to lead the line that has been a tough one for them to get a return from this season. Colby Bishop looked all set for a big season after coming back from a serious health condition and helping to transform the team, but he has been replaced by Makenzie Kirk without much change to the output. Pompey play a direct game, they have the fourth highest successful direct pass rates in the league.

Connor Ogilvie looks set to return to the team for this match, and Bishop could also return to the starting XI as well. Many long term absentees are still on the treatment table for Portsmouth, and Mousinho will be hoping to be able to call on them shortly.

Wrexham are unlikely to change anything from their starting XI against Coventry. They expertly played the 3-5-2 formation, with the back three of Max Cleworth, Dom Hyam, and Dan Scarr, has blended well together, whilst the midfield has a lot of drive and energy. Wing-backs Issa Kabore and Liberato Cacace provide the width for Josh Windass and Kieffer Moore to thrive upon.


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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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