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🗂️ Tottenham v Arsenal
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Kick Off: Sunday 15th September at 14:00
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Competition: Premier League
Sparks are set to fly when Tottenham and Arsenal renew their rivalry in the first North London Derby of the campaign on Sunday in a fixture that has the makings of an early-season cracker in the capital.
Title-chasing Arsenal dropped two points at Brighton just before the international break and a further misstep at neighbours Tottenham this weekend would see them fail to win successive Premier League fixtures for the first time since December.
Tottenham meanwhile, have gone four North London Derbies without tasting victory, however, with Arsenal potentially missing two key players, Sunday could offer Spurs a chance at earning bragging rights for the first time since May 2022.
Tottenham v Arsenal Best Bets
There is decent value on offer in several directions for the North London Derby with both teams to score at 1.45 and over 2.5 goals at 1.57, offering solid options as standalone bets, however, combining both at 1.80 has even greater appeal.
Tottenham scored four times and racked up 3.70 in xGF across their two meetings with Arsenal last term with the Gunners offering five goals and 2.80 in xGF in return.
Spurs only have one setting under Ange Postecoglou and like they did twice last season, a cavalier Tottenham will be happy to go toe-to-toe with their rivals on Sunday. The over 2.5 goals and BTTS combination bet landed in both North London Derbies in 2023/24, so expect similar excitement this weekend.
Elsewhere, Tottenham catch the eye at 1.57 in the double chance market. With key players Declan Rice and Martin Odegaard missing through suspension and injury, Arsenal will be a less formidable prospect, and the duo’s absence gives Spurs’ chances a massive boost.
Tottenham outperformed Arsenal for xGF (2.30-1.00), shots (14-9), possession (62%-38%) and corners (8-6) when they lost the last North London Derby in April, and they might enjoy a better result with a similar performance on Sunday.
📂 Tottenham v Arsenal Cheat Sheet
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📊 Tottenham Form and Stats
Tottenham’s start to the new Premier League season has been a mixed bag with their first three fixtures returning a win (vs Everton), a draw (vs Leicester) and a defeat (vs Newcastle, though somewhat unsurprisingly, their solitary triumph so far over the Toffees (4-0) came on home soil.
13 of Spurs’ 20 Premier League victories in 2023/24 were delivered at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, however, they dropped points in 12 of their 19 matches on the road, and the early evidence suggests their results could follow a similar pattern this term.
79% of Tottenham’s league fixtures last season produced over 2.5 goals and Ange Postecoglou’s commitment to attacking football continues to make Spurs a reliably entertaining side to watch.
Tottenham have failed to score in just one of their 20 Premier League home games under the Australian manager’s direction, while Spurs notched two or more goals in 15 of the same games. Their 4-0 demolition job on Everton on August 24th suggests they will be a formidable force in North London again in 2024/25.
After three matches of the new campaign, Spurs rank second for both shots (16.00) and shots on target (6.33) attempted per 90, while Tottenham have posted a possession figure north of 65% in every Premier League outing so far.
Numerous Tottenham players have been doing good work in the final third, however, defender Pedro Porro (2.68) has been hitting more shots per 90 minutes than James Maddison (2.28), Brennan Johnson (2.12) and even Heung-min Son (1.67) since the summer.
📊 Arsenal Form and Stats
Arsenal are already playing catch-up in the Premier League title race ahead of matchday four of the new campaign after they were held to a 1-1 draw by Brighton just before the recent international hiatus.
Declan Rice was sent off in controversial circumstances against Albion when he collected a second booking for (slightly) kicking the ball away, and the lynchpin’s absence leaves a sizable hole to fill at the base of Arsenal’s midfield on Sunday.
The sight of skipper Martin Odegaard on crutches in midweek gave Gunners supporters another major wobble and the Norwegian, who picked up an ankle injury while on international duty, is expected to join Rice on the sidelines this weekend.
Rice’s dismissal against Brighton was undeniably harsh, however, Arsenal were bound to lose a player to suspension sooner rather than later after an uncharacteristically aggressive start to the season.
Mikel Arteta’s charges have collected more yellow cards (10) than any other team so far and have committed the joint-most fouls (45) in the division. The Gunners had one of the cleanest disciplinary records in the league last season, which suggests their combative edge has been sharpened by design this term.
In possession, Arsenal’s football has been typically slick and they have been razor-sharp in terms of efficiency. In their back-to-back 2-0 wins over Wolves and Aston Villa, the Gunners posted modest xGF figures of 1.20 and 0.90, and while they rank down in ninth for shots per 90 (12.67), they sit second for accuracy, landing 44.7% of their attempts on target.
Bukayo Saka has been Arsenal’s star individual performer and the England regular had a hand in four of the five goals his team has scored since the summer (1G, 3A). The 23-year-old (seven) also ranks second in the top flight behind Man City’s Erling Haaland (nine) for total shots on target mustered so far.
⚔️ Tottenham v Arsenal Head-to-Head
The North London Derby has a knack for producing drama by the bucketload and the last tussle between Tottenham and Arsenal in April was in keeping with the fixture’s frenetic traditions.
The Gunners emerged with three points following a five-goal thriller at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, capitalising on a modest xGF of just 1.00 and a haul of just three shots on target to claim the spoils.
That was the eighth time in ten previous Premier League encounters between the rivals that produced over 2.5 goals, however, the game featured only three cards, which was a departure from the norm. The nine North London Derbies before April’s skirmish averaged 5.50 cards per game.
Remarkably, each of the last three meetings between Tottenham and Arsenal featured an own goal, while a penalty kick was awarded in five of the last seven showdowns between the feuding neighbours. You can back a spot-kick to be won by either team at odds of 2.40 on Sunday.
Arsenal will be hunting down their third triumph in a row on Tottenham’s patch on Sunday, indeed, the Gunners have won three of the last four North London Derbies, while Spurs have come out on top in only one of the last seven iterations of the famous fixture overall.
With eight career goals against Arsenal, Heung-min Son is a North London Derby specialist and the South Korean notched three times across two appearances against the Gunners last season. Bukayo Saka also scored in both derbies in 2023/24 and the winger managed to register in three of the last six editions of the derby since September 2021.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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