West Ham v Nottingham Forest

Super Sunday gets underway with a fascinating clash at the London Stadium between West Ham and Nottingham Forest.

The two sides are 12^th and 13^th in the Premier League, separated by just a single point, with the Hammers edging out Forest 14 to 13.

However, whilst the visitors arrive on the up, having lost only one of their last five games, David Moyes’ side have seen their fast start fizzle out. They have now lost three on the bounce in the league, with Villa, Everton, and Brentford all handing defeats to the men from East London.

Forest have been slowly accumulating points as they begin to pull away from the relegation zone. Besides an understandable 3-0 loss away to Liverpool, they have put together a solid run of form, securing draws with Brentford, Palace and Luton, before upsetting Villa at home last week with a comfortable 2-0 win at the City Ground.

It is also worth noting that West Ham have played on Thursday evening, albeit at home against Olympiacos, so whilst there should be no jetlag, players are still likely to be considerably more fatigued than Forest, who last played a week ago, on Sunday.

This is a tough one to call, but there are some great angles for a bet builder in this one, with plenty of under-the-radar options on offer to help you secure a winner on this Sunday evening fixture.

We’ve delved into the details so that you don’t have to, and if any of our tips take your fancy, why not add them to your West Ham v Nottingham Forest bet builder?

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West Ham v Nottingham Forest Cheat Sheet

This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

The research in this piece has been pulled together using the West Ham v Nottingham Forest Cheat Sheet. There’s a wide range of stats to choose from, be it player passes or team corners. There are also referee statistics in the middle of the sheet too.

You’re encouraged to use the Cheat Sheet in any way that you want. However, a brief example could be to match up the highest fouls committed by West Ham to the highest fouls drawn for Nottingham Forest.

You can find West Ham v Nottingham Forest stats on my Bet Builder stats tool, along with official lineups one hour before kick-off.

Now, for my breakdown and preview with recommended bets…

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⚽ Goals stats: Cooper’s side vulnerable to counter-attacks

West Ham’s greatest strength is Forest’s biggest weakness. As much as Cooper is likely to instruct his team to defend deep to mitigate the risk of counter-attacks, they will happen, and Forest have proved to be extremely poor at defending them.

Fortunately for the Reds, their ability to create shots from set pieces is a big weakness for their hosts. Chances should therefore flow throughout this game, with both sides being happy to give up possession and see what their opponents can do before attempting to hit them on the break.

West Ham have kept just one clean sheet all season, whilst also failing to score only once. They have scored twice or more on six occasions and conceded two or more goals five times in eleven games.

Forest meanwhile have failed to score only three times in 11 league games, with two of these coming in away games at Man City and Liverpool. Steve Cooper’s side have also conceded plenty, only keeping three clean sheets this season.

With both teams to score landing in nine of West Ham’s 11 league fixtures, and in six of Forest’s, this looks to be a nice addition to any bet builder. Over 2.5 goals is also a solid option, landing in eight of West Ham’s games, and in five of Forest’s matches.

Predictions:

⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.65

⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.75

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🟨 Cards stats: Michael Salisbury likely to be busy in the capital

The Irons have been snapping into challenges all season, averaging 2.73 cards per game so far in 2023/24.

They have seen 2+ cards in eight of their 11 games, and 3+ in seven, whilst no side has yet received more cards than David Moyes’ men in any Premier League game this season.

West Ham have won the card battle on eight occasions, drawing it on three occasions. For those of you looking to construct a high-odds bet builder, this could well be a nice selection to add.

Forest are no slouches in the card department; however, their averages are somewhat bloated by a couple of games in which they saw seven and five cards. Across the last four games, they have averaged a much tamer 2.00 cards per game.

The Hammers have seen 5+ cards in six of their 11 league fixtures so far, whilst Forest can better that, racking up seven occasions in which the referee has reached to his pocket at least five times.

Predictions:

🟨 Over 1.5 West Ham cards @ 1.44

🟨 Over 2.5 West Ham cards @ 2.50

🟨 Over 4.5 match cards @ 1.83

🟨 West Ham to receive the most cards @ 2.70

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🎯 Shooting stats: Bowen’s on fire, but Forest have set-piece threat

With neither side being particularly productive when being forced to hold the ball, both teams will be happy to concede the ball to their opponents.

Both have had the majority of possession in few games this season, with West Ham managing it on only three occasions, against Sheffield United, Luton and Everton. For Forest it is the same story, having more of the ball just once, against Luton.

This means that counter-attacks are likely to be the main avenue for chance creation, with both sides excelling in this area.

For West Ham, this usually means Jarrod Bowen will be heavily involved. Bowen has been averaging over a shot on target per 90 in the Premier League this season. He has had at least one shot on target in nine of their 11 games, and he has only been substituted once, so he should get the full 90 minutes to secure at least one shot on target.

Bowen has scored in seven of their 11 league games, including in two of his last three. Whilst it may appear tempting to go for a score and assist bet instead of a pure goals bet, he has scored seven times but only assisted once, in a game in which he also scored. For that reason, those seeking to boost their odds should stick to a punt on Bowen to score for the best value.

Forest will be looking to exploit one of West Ham’s major weaknesses, which this term has been conceding set pieces in dangerous areas. Not only do they concede plenty of set-piece opportunities around the box, but they are also pretty poor at defending them. They also concede more corners than any other Premier League side, at 7.64 per game.

Only four of the Hammers’s 11 league games have come against sides in the bottom half of the table, but in three of these four games, they have conceded at least four shots from dead balls situations.

Forest meanwhile have been effective at generating shots from dead balls, in their four games against sides in the bottom half, they have notched three or more shots from these situations on three occasions.

This means there is value to be found in those having headed shots frequently. Across these four games against weaker opposition, frequent targets have included Willy Boly and Murillo.

Willy Boly will be a fantastic option should he start, but also appealing is Murillo. He has had four shots in his five games so far for Forest, seeing out the full 90 minutes in all five. At 1.67 simply to have a shot, this price looks too good to pass up.

Boly’s price looks even better, but we would highly recommend waiting for the lineups to place any bet that includes this selection. The Ivory Coast international had been a fixture in the side until last weekend’s game against Aston Villa, and it remains to be seen whether or not he will feature here.

Predictions:

🎯 Jarrod Bowen to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.53

⚽ Jarrod Bowen to score anytime @ 3.10

🎯 Murillo to have 1+ shot @ 1.67

🎯 Willy Boly to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.73

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🛑 Fouls stats: Paqueta to lead West Ham’s foul charge, and look to Forest’s midfield

For the hosts, we recommend turning to the total fouls markets. West Ham have committed 11+ fouls in seven of their 11 Premier League games so far this season yet are as high as 1.83 to repeat this feat.

The Hammers have notched 13+ on five occasions also (and 12+ on six), so those looking for high-odds selections for their Sunday afternoon bet builder could do a lot worse than backing 12+ fouls (2.40) or 13+ fouls (3.25). They have generally hit the highest foul lines in competitive matches, which we anticipate this one to be, so there looks to be some good value available here.

For Forest, no player likely to start here has committed more fouls per 90 than Orel Mangala. The Belgian midfielder has racked up 1.54 per 90, just edging out Ibrahim Sangare.

Across his 11 Premier League starts this season, he has committed a foul in all but one, and yet is still very generously priced at 1.22. This will not move the needle so to speak but looks to be an excellent selection to cap off any bet builder.

Mangala has also racked up four cards this season and facing a team relying heavily on the counter-attack, he may well be at risk of picking up his fifth here.

An alternative low-odds foul selection comes in the from of Mangala’s midfield partner, Nicolas Dominguez. The Argentine has racked up fouls in four of his six Premier League starts for Forest, including five in his last two games.

In a game that could well get quite scrappy, and up against Jarrod Bowen on West Ham’s right flank, he looks to be at serious risk of picking up more fouls here and is priced surprisingly high considering his assignment here.

Dominguez to make 1+ foul is priced at 1.36 but sitting at 2.70 to commit 2+ fouls seems like a great value option. Having committed two and three fouls in his last two outings, this could be a fantastic play for a high-odds bet builder, as he will be kept busy by both Bowen and Mohamed Kudus who tends to drift into the space left by Bowen staying high and wide.

Predictions:

🛑 West Ham to commit 11+ fouls @ 1.83

🛑 West Ham to commit 12+ fouls @ 2.40

🛑 Orel Mangala to commit 1+ foul @ 1.22

🛑 Nicolas Dominguez to commit 1+ foul @ 1.36

🛑 Nicolas Dominguez to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.70

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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