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Leicester v Southampton

Below is a full betting preview ahead of this week’s standout EFL fixture between Leicester and Southampton, accompanied by betting tips, predictions, team news, and best bets as well as a Cheat Sheet covering the proceedings at The King Power Stadium.

If you want to check out more of our EFL content, make sure to check out our EFL predictions and EFL accumulator tips or our new both teams to score tips.

We have also tracked all the best free bets for UK customers and the best bet builder bookmakers, to ensure our readers are getting the best value from our football betting tips.

Leicester’s nervy, but important, 2-1 victory at home to West Brom on Saturday morning has put them in a strong position to convert their long-held domination over the Championship into an immediate return to the Premier League.

The Foxes now sit four points clear of Leeds with three games to play. Leeds could’ve closed that gap by the time of kick-off, but a win here will put Leicester right on the brink.

Saints ruled themselves out of automatic promotion contention after letting a 1-0 lead convert to a disappointing 2-1 reverse at Cardiff. This symbolised Southampton’s relative struggles this season as they haven’t quite been able to match the very best teams in terms of consistency.

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📂 Leicester v Southampton Cheat Sheet

There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets to look for player fouls won stats or any other markets, and we encourage you to find your own formula to pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.

You can find Leicester v Southampton match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off. If you’re looking for a new bookmaker check out the best bet builder bookmakers.

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⚔️ Leicester v Southampton Head-to-Head

The first meeting of these two teams happened quite early in the season, all the way back in September. It was a Friday night televised game and Southampton were totally picked off by Leicester as they tried to play out from the back.

The result ended up at 4-1 to Leicester, but it could have been any score. Southampton did demonstrate that they had plenty of attacking weapons themselves, generating 1.57 xG in the match, but Leicester amassed 4.14 xG, still their largest total of the season, and had seven big chances in the match, converting three of them.

The match generated 34 shots in total, divided 19-15 in favour of Southampton, and Southampton also dominated the corner count 9-3. However, it is important to bear in mind here that Leicester went ahead in the very first minute and were 2-0 up after 18 minutes. This can distort corner and shot stats as a result of game state.

It is true though that Southampton do generally have a better corner and shots record than Leicester over the course of the season and they could potentially be undervalued in these markets given the scenario of this match.

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📊 Leicester Form and Stats

The West Brom win was much-needed for Leicester. They had lost their two previous games 1-0, but both of those defeats were away from home. At the King Power Stadium, they have managed to hold their form together in general, though they have not really been convincing at the same time.

That was Leicester’s third consecutive win at home and they have consistently been dominant in the xG battle in their home Championship fixtures. Saturday’s win represented the 13th consecutive home match in which Leicester had won the xG battle, stretching back to the visit of Leeds in November.

Most of the xG wins have been convincing as well, they are currently running at a +1.1 xG differential over their last ten home matches, meaning that they are creating over an expected goal’s worth of chances per game more than their visitors.

Just briefly looking at Leicester’s form against the more difficult teams in the league, they have lost 0-1 and 1-3 to Leeds, drawn 1-1 with Ipswich on two occasions, but have had that thumping 4-1 win in the reverse fixture at Southampton. However, those other four matches against the contenders do show that there are some frailties to Leicester against the better teams.

Also, overall, Leicester have picked up only 13 points in their last 10 games, which is a concern at this stage of the season.

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📊 Southampton Form and Stats

Now that Saints’ season is practically on ice until the play-offs it is difficult to assess how recent form will affect their performance in this clash.

Up until the surprising loss at Cardiff, which was potentially unfortunate when looking at the performance data from the match, the Saints had been flying. However, it looks to be the away form that has been their Achilles’ heel in the run-in.

Three consecutive home wins had put Russell Martin’s team in with a real shot at overhauling two of the three teams above them, but they had lost 3-2 at Ipswich to a last-minute goal, drawn 0-0 at Blackburn, and then squandered five big chances at Cardiff on Saturday to fall to bar behind for a realistic chance at the automatic places.

Mathematically speaking, the door remains open for the moment, and whilst that remains the case, Martin will be pushing his team to strive for that second place, but one wonders whether the players can keep their mental edge knowing the realistic chances.

Overall, away from home over the last ten away Championship matches, Southampton do look strong. They have a +0.7 xG differential over that period, but only five wins in the ten matches show that they haven’t been clinical enough in front of goal to convert their chances.

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💰 Leicester v Southampton Best Bets 

It is the respective home and away from, and the impressive way that Enzo Maresca evaluated and defeated the Russell Martin system in the first meeting of the two that raises confidence in Leicester’s ability to get a result here. If they can keep the nerves out of the system and the way that they play, then the Foxes should be capable of getting the result that they need here.

However, all five of their last five matches at the King Power have also seen both teams score, and Southampton have proven all season that they are well capable of notching, so a Leicester win and BTTS at 3.40 on bet365 looks great value.

There is also potential value in the corner markets. There were 12 in the first meeting, and Southampton are one of the best corner winners in the Championship. Leicester aren’t as good in that area, but if they are level or behind there is a chance that they may pile the pressure on and earn corners as well.

Therefore the over line on the total corner market could be under threat, over 10.5 corners at 1.80 on Paddy Power looks to be a nice bet to take.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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18+ please gamble responsibly.

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