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Here is my process for predicting the number of goals in a football match.
The overs goals market is one of the most popular football betting markets and is simply the case of predicting whether there’s going to be over 1.5 goals in a match (two or more), 2.5 goals (three or more) or 3.5 goals (four or more).
In this guide, I’ll give you an overview of how I pick an overs goals bet which will hopefully help you in choosing your own bets using a similar strategy.
📋 Step 1: Shortlisting
I’m going to use the English Premier League and Scottish Premiership as examples to pick a goals treble (three matches).
As I write this (Monday, May 6th, 2024), there are eight English Premier League matches and five Scottish Premiership matches scheduled for this Saturday.
To kick things off, I use the Soccer Stats website, specifically the goals table, which is available for most leagues.
🏴 Soccer Stats: Premier League Goals Stats
🏴 Soccer Stats: Scottish Premiership Goals Stats
The goals table allows you to view average match goals over the season, the last eight matches, home and away.
I’m looking for teams that have high averages either throughout the whole season, in their last eight matches or at home or away (depending on whether they’re home or away in their next match).
From a quick look, I can see Newcastle v Brighton looks good. Newcastle top the table for average match goals in the league (3.83 per game) and rank 3rd for average match goals over the last eight matches (4.00).
West Ham v Luton is another nice option. Both teams rank in the top seven for average match goals this season (3.50 and 3.53 per game, respectively) and they both sit in the top half of the table for average match goals in the last eight matches.
Finally, Nottingham Forest v Chelsea seems promising. While Forest rank fourth-bottom for average goals this season, their average is still 3.00 match goals per game. Chelsea matches average 3.69 for the season and 4.63 over the last eight matches.
In the Scottish Premiership, Celtic v Rangers stands out because both teams are in the top three for average goals this season, 3.20 and 2.94, respectively. They are also 1st and 2nd for average goals per game over the last eight matches.
The only other match that seems decent in the Scottish Premiership is Ross County v Motherwell, with both sides ranking in the top half for average goals per game so far this season, with 2.66 and 2.94 respectively.
Just like that, after ten minutes I have a shortlist of five matches. Now I need to narrow it down to three matches by digging deeper.
🔎 Step 2: Digging Deeper
Now that I’ve identified five matches that seem good for goals, let’s delve deeper.
Context is crucial when researching bets. Surface-level statistics are useful initially for creating a shortlist, but to finalise your bet, you must examine the context behind the numbers.
Newcastle v Brighton
From looking at the Goals table on Soccer Stats, we know that Newcastle’s matches average 3.83 goals per game this season, 4.00 per game over the last eight, and 3.83 goals per game in home matches.
However, let’s analyse the actual results to understand how these averages were attained, focusing primarily on the last eight matches. Recent data holds more relevance, provided there’s a sufficient sample size, and eight matches is likely the ideal sample size.
In the last eight matches, Newcastle scored 21 goals, averaging 2.63 goals per game, while conceding 11, averaging 1.38 goals conceded per game.
Of these eight matches, four were at home, with 14 goals scored and five conceded. Notably, their last two home matches ended in a 5-1 victory against Sheffield United and a 4-0 win against Spurs.
With xG data from FBref, Newcastle’s average xGF for the last eight matches is 2.34 per game, slightly lower than their actual goals scored in that period. Similarly, their average xGA for the last eight matches is 1.23, slightly below the actual goals conceded.
This analysis reveals that while Newcastle are scoring frequently, especially at home, they remain vulnerable defensively, conceding a considerable number of goals, which aligns closely to their expected goals metrics.
Brighton, on the other hand, have experienced a downturn in form lately, scoring only four goals in their last eight matches while conceding 13.
In their four away matches, they have scored just two goals but conceded six. Notably, their most recent away match ended in a 3-0 defeat to Bournemouth.
Brighton’s average xGF for the last eight games is 0.91, nearly double their actual goals scored (0.5 per game).
Regarding xGA, they average 1.58 xGA per game over the last eight, slightly lower than their actual goals conceded per game (1.63).
Newcastle currently sit in 6th position, trailing Spurs by four points with three matches remaining. They hold only a two-point lead over Chelsea and Man Utd, the latter having a game in hand over Newcastle.
It’s very important for Newcastle to maintain their good form to secure at least 6th place and European football next season.
Brighton are in 11th spot, just one point behind Bournemouth in 10th and one point ahead of Wolves in 12th. Following their victory against Villa last week, Brighton could climb back into the top half with a win this weekend.
The best odds for over 2.5 goals in this match are 1.36, suggesting an implied probability of 73%.
Now, based on the data and information above, we need to assess whether we believe there is a greater than 73% chance for over 2.5 goals, as this would indicate value.
West Ham v Luton
West Ham’s matches average 3.50 goals per game this season, 4.00 per game over the last eight, and 3.06 per game at home.
In their last eight matches, they’ve scored an average of 1.38 goals per game but conceded an average of 2.63 goals per game.
It’s evident that their high goals average is primarily due to defensive weaknesses and conceding goals, rather than their ability to score goals, although that is also fairly strong.
Most of these conceded goals have come in their last four matches, with 14 goals conceded, averaging 3.5 per game.
Their xGF over the last eight matches is 1.24 goals per game, with xGA at 2.34, both figures not significantly different from the actual goals numbers.
Regarding Luton, they average 3.53 goals per game this season, 3.38 over the last eight matches, and 3.78 goals per game when playing away.
Looking at their most recent eight matches, they have scored and conceded in seven of the last eight, averaging 1.00 goals scored per game and 2.38 conceded.
They’ve conceded at least two goals in their last five away matches, but managed to score in four of them.
Their xGF over the last eight matches is 0.68, with xGA at 1.99, both figures lower than the actual numbers.
Situationally, this is a big game for both sides. West Ham, currently 9th, are seven points adrift of 6th place with two matches remaining but only one point ahead of 10th and two points ahead of 11th.
While European football might seem out of reach for West Ham, they will be keen to avoid dropping into the bottom half. Additionally, they’ll view this as an opportunity to end their winless streak of four matches.
Luton, sitting in 18th place, are three points behind Forest in 17th. They desperately need points as they fight to avoid relegation. Given West Ham’s recent form, they will fancy their chances here. A win would likely draw them level with Forest, who are playing against Chelsea.
The best odds for over 2.5 goals in this match are 1.44, suggesting an implied probability of 69.4%.
Now, based on the data and information above, we need to assess whether we believe there is a greater than 69.4% chance for over 2.5 goals, as this would indicate value.
Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
Forest’s matches have averaged 3.00 goals per game this season, 3.00 over the last eight matches and 2.89 in their home matches this season.
In their recent eight matches, Forest scored an average of 1.38 goals per game while conceding 1.63 goals per game.
Among these last eight matches, only two were against top-half teams. If we look at Forest’s recent home matches against clubs in the top half, it’s a 2-0 defeat against City, 1-0 defeat against Liverpool, and 1-0 defeat against Man Utd.
Their average xGF over the last eight matches stands at 1.51 per game, with xGA at 1.15.
Their xGF exceeds their actual goals scored, while xGA is considerably lower than the goals conceded which suggests they have been unlucky in the number of goals they have let in.
Situationally, this match holds massive importance for Forest. Currently 17th, they have a three-point lead over 18th-placed Luton. Any positive result would be welcomed to maintain a gap over Luton.
Chelsea’s matches have averaged 3.69 goals per game this season, increasing to 4.63 over the last eight matches and 3.65 goals per game in away matches this season.
Over the last eight matches, Chelsea have averaged 2.88 goals scored per game and 1.75 goals conceded per game.
Despite keeping clean sheets in their last two matches, Chelsea have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 14 away matches. They’ve also scored two goals in three of their last four away matches.
Their average xGF for the last eight matches is 2.51, with xGA at 1.61, both figures aligning closely with the actual goals scored and conceded.
In the current situation, Chelsea sit 7th, just two points behind Newcastle in 6th with three matches remaining. They are level on points with Man Utd, who sit 7th.
Chelsea need to be winning this match if they want to finish in the top 6.
The best odds for over 2.5 goals in this match are 1.53, indicating an implied probability of 65.4%.
Considering the data and information, we need to evaluate whether we believe there is a greater than 65.4% chance for over 2.5 goals, as this would suggest value.
Celtic v Rangers
Celtic’s matches have averaged 3.20 goals per game this season, 4.00 in their last eight matches, and 3.35 per home game this season.
In their last eight matches, Celtic have scored 24 goals, averaging 3 goals per game. While they’ve conceded eight goals, averaging 1 goal conceded per game.
During their last five matches, Celtic have scored three goals in four out of the five matches, including the 3-3 draw with Rangers just one month ago.
At home, Celtic have conceded in three of their last five home matches.
Situationally, Celtic are in 1st place, three points ahead of Rangers with three matches remaining. It’s clear Rangers must win this match if they are to have any hope of winning the Premiership this season.
Rangers’ matches have averaged 2.94 goals per game this season, increasing to 3.63 in their last eight matches, and averaging 2.41 per away game this season.
Rangers have both scored and conceded in seven of their last eight matches. They’ve scored 17 goals in their last eight matches (2.13 goals per game) and conceded 12 (1.5 goals conceded per game).
Over 2.5 goals has landed in seven of their last eight matches, including the 3-3 draw with Celtic last month.
As mentioned, situationally Rangers must secure a win in this match to have any chance of winning the title. A victory would level Rangers with Celtic, with the current goal difference being five goals in Celtic’s favour.
The best odds for over 2.5 goals in this match are 1.57, indicating an implied probability of 63.7%.
Considering the data and information, we need to establish whether we think there is a greater than 63.7% chance for over 2.5 goals, as this would suggest value.
Ross County v Motherwell
Ross County’s matches have averaged 2.66 goals per game this season, 2.88 in their last eight matches, and 2.41 goals per game at home this season.
In their last eight matches, Ross County scored 10 goals, averaging 1.25 goals per game. They’ve conceded 13 goals in those eight matches, averaging 1.63 goals conceded per game.
Ross County have scored 2 or more goals in each of their last four home matches and have conceded in each of those matches. Over 2.5 has landed in each of them.
This will be the fourth meeting between the sides this season, with over 2.5 goals landing in each match. The average goals per game over the four meetings is 4.67.
Situationally, Ross County sit in 10th place, only two points ahead of 11th-placed St Johnstone who’re in the relegation play-off position. With only three matches remaining, Ross County need all the points they can get to secure their safety in the Scottish Premiership.
Motherwell’s matches have averaged 2.94 goals per game this season, 2.88 in their last eight matches, and 2.53 goals per away game this season.
In their last eight matches, Motherwell have scored 14 goals, averaging 1.75 goals scored per game. They’ve conceded nine goals in those eight matches, averaging 1.13 goals conceded per game.
Both teams have scored in four of the last five matches, and in three of their last five away matches. Motherwell have conceded in each of their last five away matches.
Situationally, Motherwell are 9th but will hope to climb the table and finish top of the bottom 6. Currently, they trail Hibs by two points in 7th place but hold a nine-point lead over St Johnstone in 11th, with only three matches remaining.
The best odds for over 2.5 goals in this match are 1.80, indicating an implied probability of 55.6%.
Considering the data and information, we need to determine whether we believe there is a greater than 55.6% chance for over 2.5 goals, as this would suggest value.
✅ Step 3: Finalising Selections
Now we’ve thoroughly researched every match and we’ve looked at the odds to establish whether there is value to be had in any of the matches.
Let’s summarise each one.
Newcastle v Brighton
Newcastle’s goalscoring record, in terms of both goals scored and conceded, is very impressive.
However, there is concern about Brighton’s inconsistencies. In their last six matches, only three have had over 2.5 goals, and they kept a clean sheet in a 1-0 win against 4th-placed Aston Villa last weekend.
The best odds of 1.36 are too low for me. Given Newcastle’s recent scoring prowess, they might win this match comfortably. However, Brighton’s recent result against Aston Villa is enough to dissuade me from this match, especially considering the short odds.
If the odds were around 1.50 (an implied probability of 67%), then I’d consider it. But at 1.36 (an implied probability of 73.5%), it’s not worth it.
West Ham v Luton
What I like about this match is that both teams are scoring and conceding plenty of goals.
West Ham’s matches are averaging 4.00 goals per game over the last eight, while Luton’s are averaging 3.38.
Five of West Ham’s last eight games have gone over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in six of those eight. Similarly, five of Luton’s last eight have also gone over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in seven.
I also like the situation: Luton are desperately scrapping for points to avoid relegation, and West Ham needs a win to break a four-game winless streak and stay in the top half of the league.
With the best odds at 1.44, translating to an implied probability of 69.4%, I think it’s worth taking this match for over 2.5 goals in the treble.
Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
Similar to the Newcastle v Brighton match, this game is statistically skewed towards one side for scoring goals – in this case, Chelsea.
Chelsea’s matches have averaged 4.63 goals per game in their last eight, while Forest’s have averaged 3.00.
What concerns me about Forest is that they’ve played three top-half teams recently, and none of those matches have exceeded 2.5 goals.
However, seven of Chelsea’s last eight matches have gone over 2.5 goals, and the same is true for seven of their last eight away matches.
The odds are also favourable here, with a best price of 1.53, translating to an implied probability of 65.4%. For this reason, I think it’s worth taking the risk.
Situationally, it’s strong. Chelsea need to win as they chase Newcastle for 6th place. A result for Forest would maintain their gap over Luton in 18th place.
Nottingham Forest v Chelsea is my second selection for the treble.
Celtic v Rangers
This one looks great to complete the treble. The situation is ideal, with Rangers needing a win to keep their title hopes alive. This should make them more attacking, potentially leaving gaps in their defence for Celtic to exploit.
The last meeting, only a month ago, ended in a 3-3 draw. The previous encounter, four months earlier, finished 2-1 in favour of Celtic.
Celtic’s matches have averaged 4.00 goals per game in their last eight, with Rangers averaging 3.63. This match is sure to be high-scoring, and at a best price of 1.57 (an implied probability of 63.7%), it looks like the perfect pick to finalise my goals treble.
Ross County v Motherwell
Although the statistics are less favourable for this one compared to the others, I actually believe it presents the most value.
The best price is 1.80, with an implied probability of 55.6%. Given the recent match stats and the situation, this seems to be good value.
Over 2.5 goals has landed in each of Ross County’s last four home matches, with them scoring two goals in each game.
Motherwell have conceded in each of their last four matches and scored two or more goals in three of them. Over 2.5 goals has landed in three of their last four away matches.
Situationally, Ross County are fighting for survival and, after a 2-1 victory over Hibs last weekend, they’ll see this as another chance to secure three points.
While this isn’t going into my treble, it’s worth backing as a value single for over 2.5 goals at 1.80 on bet365.
Summary
Here we have it – a thorough overview of how I approach picking an ‘overs’ goals bet.
The treble pays 3.40 at bet365, which means a £10 stake returns £34.04.
While the example used in this piece focuses on picking an over 2.5 goals treble, the same analysis applies to over 1.5 goals bets and over 3.5 goals bets.
The key takeaway is the importance of looking beyond surface-level statistics and understanding the context behind these numbers.
Using surface-level stats is a quick and effective way to initially shortlist a number of matches. However, to finalise your best bet, it’s important to look further than just the numbers, and then make a judgment based on the odds and the implied probability those odds suggest.
When picking a goals bet, the context can include a variety of factors: examining advanced metrics such as expected goals (xGF and xGA), comparing home form versus away form, recent match stats versus season stats, head-to-head records (especially if the teams frequently play each other), and analysing results/stats against similarly levelled teams.
Additionally, something I didn’t explore into here but is also crucial is team news. When betting on goals, key information like the availability of a top goalscorer (which might dissuade you from betting on goals) or missing key defensive players (which could prompt a bet on goals) can be pivotal.
The point in all of this is if you want to succeed in betting on goals, you need to conduct thorough research to equip yourself with all the necessary information to make an informed prediction.
Good luck with your betting, and be sure to let me know on Twitter, Instagram, or Facebook if you’ve read this article and used my methods yourself.
Written by Andy Robson
18+ please gamble responsibly.
