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Birmingham v West Brom
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Date: Friday 6th October
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Competition: Championship
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Kick off: 20:00
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
The derby comes at a very interesting time for both clubs. Birmingham’s 4-1 victory in midweek ended a bit of a poor run, and with players returning from injury they will be feeling positive, whilst Baggies have powered into a play-off position in the midst of a five-game unbeaten run.
West Brom have been the dominant force in this particular version of the West Midlands rivalry in recent times. Not only have they been the side in the Premier League most recently, but they have also won seven of the last 12 of these derbies, which included a run of four victories in five matches at St Andrews.
However, Birmingham have bitten back recently with the last two derbies at St Andrews going their way, the most recent of which, in February, saw six of the current squad start in a 2-0 victory sealed by Krystian Bielik in a Player of the Match display.
There has been constant speculation around John Eustace this season, despite the fact that he is probably doing a better job than any Birmingham manager has for a long time. The increased profile of the club and the more sound financial footing post-takeover does mean that pressure and expectation has increased around the club.
It is almost a quarter of the way through the season, so it’s not definitive at all, but it feels quite ominous that Carlos Corberan has a talented squad in the play-off places at this stage.
The Spanish manager did similar with Huddersfield Town a couple of seasons ago but will be under no illusions that performances still have to improve. The Baggies sit near the bottom of the league for xG generated, chances created and shots taken.
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Blues’ attack brings a new dimension to the rivalry
It feels like it has been a long time since Bluenoses could look forward to a derby match with the knowledge that if they compare the attacking units of the two teams, they would fancy their own options. There is a lot of work for Eustace to continue to do, but the return of Siriki Dembele has given this team, to use modern phrase, a glow-up. The former Peterborough and Bournemouth man provides so much in terms of ball-carrying, off-the-ball sharpness and some finishing ability, that he knits the rest of the attack together.
Jay Stansfield has been an excellent loan signing. The youngster from Fulham is a bundle of energy, both in attack and also in being the first line of defence. He is not afraid to get involved in the match all over the pitch, and can play in a couple of positions in the attacking unit. It has been interesting to see the integration of Koji Miyoshi into the side. The Japanese has been impressive in the last couple of matches. His endeavour and ability to find the right option was most evident in midweek in an impressive performance.
There is depth as well with stalwart of the club Lukas Jutkiewicz ready to make an impact off the bench. Scott Hogan is in poor form but is often good for a goal, and Juninho Bacuna has also been effective of late. There are consistency issues to address, the midweek four-goal tally came off the back of two blanks, but the talent is there for Birmingham to fancy their chances.
Birmingham team news
Given the nature of the performance in midweek, Eustace may look to make as few changes as fitness allows in his starting XI. This means that John Ruddy will sit behind a back four of Cody Drameh, Dion Sanderson, Kevin Long, and Emmanuel Longelo.
Ivan Sunjic and Krystian Bielik will screen the defence and allow the attacking players licence to cause problems. The likely starters in the front four are Koji Miyoshi, Juninho Bacuna and Jay Stansfield behind Siriki Dembele.
Corberan’s West Brom requiring improvement despite recent run
What should reasonably be expected of this current West Brom outfit?
The Premier League legacy can still be felt in the squad, there is a clear core of players, most of the starting XI, who can be described as high-quality operators in the Championship. However, the ownership situation, the financial concerns and the imposed lack of renewal in the squad over the summer, as well as the loss of their best defender in Dara O’Shea, means that there isn’t a great argument for seeing the Baggies improve much on last season’s performance.
The only key difference that might see this change is having the services of a very good head coach in Carlos Corberan from the beginning of the season. This time last season the Hawthorns was praying for the departure of Steve Bruce and West Brom were comfortably in the bottom half of the league. This time around they sit fifth, having lost only two of ten league fixtures. However, looking into their performance data, there isn’t a lot to shout about.
West Brom have scored 1.7 goals per game, ranking them fifth, but that comes off an xG of 1.03 per match, which ranks them 19th. They also sit in the bottom half for shots taken, shots on target and big chances created. This would be not too bad if the defensive numbers were very stringent but, in reality, they are just above the mid-pack in that as well. Football is won on the pitch though and their quality in both boxes has obviously been enough at this stage to gather points. However, there is only one point between the sides, and the positions are fifth and 12th. Which says it all about the Championship.
West Brom team news
Suggestions are that Corberan won’t make any changes to the team that won last time out.
That would mean that Alex Palmer would play behind a back three of Cedric Kipre, Kyle Bartley and Erik Pieters, with Darnell Furlong and Matt Phillips as wing-backs.
The midfield two would be Alex Mowatt and Okay Yokuslu with a forward line of Jed Wallace, John Swift and Brandon Thomas-Asante. Grady Diangana could be an option should Corberan wish to freshen things up, with Thomas-Asante the most likely to drop out in that case.
Birmingham v West Brom Cheat Sheet
Here it is. The Birmingham v West Brom Cheat Sheet. All the previously mentioned stats can be found on the Cheat Sheet, as well as many more. From referee team corners to player foul stats, everything you could want to help pick out your bets is included.
The two levels of bet builder below have also been carefully selected from the Cheat Sheet. They have been chosen from a combination of player form, historical averages, and the perceived value of the selection.
For more extensive bet builder info, make sure to head over to our Bet Builder Stats page, where we have Opta-powered statistical breakdowns of major leagues across the UK and Europe, including the Birmingham v West Brom game.
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ABC’s 4/1 Birmingham v West Brom bet builder
🟨 Over 1.5 Birmgham cards
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Odds: 1.33
Referee James Linington sits around the middle of the averages for Championship referees in terms of yellow cards being dished out at around 3.5 per match.
Looking back through both teams’ disciplinary records it is Birmingham who have the worst record of the pair. A Blues player has been booked in every Championship game this season, with six being booked not so long ago in one match. They have seen yellow on three occasions in their last two home matches as well.
This is a derby match, so it should be expected that temperatures are a little higher than usual, especially with a home crowd to egg them on. Birmingham had three bookings in this fixture last season and two the season before.
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🛑 Jay Stansfield to commit 2+ fouls
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Odds: 1.67
Jay Stansfield’s off-the-ball work was briefly mentioned above, but he really puts in the effort to defend from the front.
He knows the importance of a tactical foul in the opponents’ half that stops the possibility of a dangerous counter-attack, and with West Brom employing exactly that type of game plan, Eustace will probably impose on his forward players the importance of them getting tight high up the pitch.
Stansfield is averaging 2.25 fouls per 90 minutes and he is likely to see the majority of the 90+ minutes. He is Birmingham’s biggest fouler on average, even ahead of Bacuna, Sunjic and Bielik, but his price is not reflecting that.
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🚀 Matt Phillips to have 2+ shots
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Odds: 2.10
Matt Phillips may be playing as a wing back in the Corberan system, but the wing backs are weighted as such, with Darnell Furlong a specialist right back, to provide Phillips with plenty of opportunities to get forward and use his attacking skills.
He is averaging 1.71 shots per 90, but his last three matches have gone 3, 2, 2 in terms of shots taken. That is within this system and the role that Phillips is playing now. To get odds against on this happening again looks a fairly generous price.
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ABC’s 22/1 Birmingham v West Brom bet builder
🟨 Over 2.5 Birmingham cards
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Odds: 2.30
It has been mentioned already that Birmingham have racked up three cards in each of their last two home matches and in the last home derby.
They have provoked over 2.5 cards four times in ten Championship matches, and an evening derby match under the lights at St Andrews should have them fired up.
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🛑 Krystian Bielik to commit 2+ fouls
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Odds: 1.80
Despite liking Stansfield for fouls the card price isn’t appealing, but Bielik committing two fouls is.
The midfielder is likely to play the whole match and committed four fouls in his last game. He has also covered this line twice more in his last five matches. He is only on two yellow cards for the season, so he is not in a position where he needs to be circumspect either.
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⚽ Matt Phillips to score anytime
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Odds: 5.50
Phillips has two goals already this season, one coming a couple of games ago from wing back, so he is still a goal threat from his current position.
Given his shot data he looks a big price to notch anytime and is capable from a variety of angles.
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