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Football

Andy's Saturday Accumulator 📈 @ 4.13

Andy Robson

Chelsea are without a clean sheet in 21 Premier League matches

Bayern Munich have started the season as you’d expect in the Bundesliga, winning three of their opening four matches and netting more goals than any other side in the process (14).

That scoring power jumps off the page straight away, but what is more impressive for Vincent Kompany’s side is the fact that they’ve only conceded two goals across these games. Schalke were the only side to hold them to a draw so far this season, which was a game that Bayern should have won when looking at the underlying numbers. 

Bayern Munich beat Augsburg 3-2 on the road last season, posting an xG of 4.24 as they outscored the home side - who did quite well to score twice with an xG of just 0.51 from three efforts on target. 

Bayern have actually managed to win on each of their last four trips to Augsburg, so it’s clearly a trip they enjoy and their current form makes it really hard to make a case for the home side despite their decent start to the campaign.

York have settled in really well to the EFL in front of their own fans, winning all four of their home games at the start of this season - netting 12 goals across these games and conceding just three.

York have scored more goals at home than any other side in League Two this season, with only four sides in the division boasting a better defensive record than the newly promoted side. 

They recorded a convincing home victory against Gillingham last time out, coming away 3-0 winners with an xG of 2.21 from 17 shots while the away side couldn’t even muster an effort on target from the six shots they had in the contest.

Northampton have lost each of their last three games ahead of this clash, and sit just one point above the drop zone in the early stages of the campaign - winning just one of their opening seven games. 

They haven’t won an away game this season, and have only scored one goal across their three assignments - making it hard to make a case for them to score here.

Lille have enjoyed a fairly strong start to the season having won three of their opening five games, netting eight goals in the process.

They’ve avoided defeat across their two home games, beating Troyes in a comfortable 2-0 victory after holding PSG to a 2-2 draw in a game that Lille could have got even more out of when looking over the underlying numbers.

Lille only lost four of their 17 home games in Ligue 1 last season, finishing third behind the two main title challengers in PSG and Lens. They found these sorts of games fairly routine last season, avoiding defeat against Le Havre both home and away.

Le Havre are yet to win a game in Ligue 1 this season having lost three of their opening five games. They’ve only scored four goals across these games, which is a real concern as that is the second lowest tally in the division across the opening five matches.

Furthermore, Le Havre will crucially be without starting goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi-Nzau who has had to make more saves than any other keeper so far (19), boasting a goals  prevented tally of 1.50.

Chelsea’s defensive issues are quite deep rooted, the Blues have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 21 Premier League matches - stretching all the way back to a shut out against Brentford back in Liam Rosenior’s brief tenure.

Xabi Alonso’s side faced a sobering 3-0 defeat at Brentford just before the international break, which was a result that highlighted the lack of balance and defensive rigidity of the squad. They’ve seen BTTS in their other four Premier League games, conceding 12 goals across these matches: no side has conceded more goals in the Premier League than Chelsea this season.

Bournemouth are one of only three sides in the Premier League yet to register a win domestically, but they have drawn three of their five matches and have found the back of the net in all but one of their games - with that blank coming against Liverpool just before the international break.

This is usually a very entertaining game, each of the last three clashes between the sides at Stamford Bridge has seen BTTS with the meeting last year ending 2-2 with both sides posting healthy xG numbers (2.31-3.14).

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Football

Andy's Scottish Accumulator 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 @ 6.28

Andy Robson

My last Scottish Acca won @ 7.0

Falkirk are favourites to beat Dundee in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday, but I think this will be a tighter contest than the pre-match odds suggest.

The Bairns sit second from bottom, while fourth-placed Dundee signed off for the international break with a 2-1 win over Motherwell.

Steven Pressley’s side have scored in six of their seven league games this season, with their only blank coming away at Celtic on the opening weekend.

While Falkirk have shown more attacking promise in recent weeks, they remain vulnerable at the back, conceding against 10-man St Johnstone last time out. 

Indeed, John McGlynn’s side have failed to silence their opponents in six of their seven top-flight matches this term, including all three of their fixtures at the Falkirk Stadium.

I’m backing Partick Thistle to score at least once away at Livingston on Saturday.

The Jags got their promotion push back on track with an impressive 3-0 win over Arbroath last weekend.

While Mark Wilson’s side had been stuttering before that, their performances had been better than their results suggested, with a lack of cutting edge proving costly.

That victory should have lifted spirits within the Firhill camp ahead of a trip to Livingston, who lost 2-1 at home to Ayr last weekend despite playing with a man advantage for most of the game.

The Lions have also conceded in recent home games against Stenhousemuir and Inverness.

Thistle will represent a tougher test than either of those opponents, particularly given the firepower at their disposal.

The Jags have scored in two of their three league games away from home this season and won the reverse fixture 2-0, so they look well capable of finding the net again on Saturday.

I rarely go against Arbroath at Gayfield, and they look worth backing in the draw no bet market against Morton on Saturday. 

The Red Lichties are unbeaten in all four of their home league games this season, a run that includes a win over ante-post title favourites Livingston. 

They also saw off Queen’s Park 2-1 in their last home match, which bodes well for another visit from one of the division’s strugglers. 

Morton are the only side across the SPFL still searching for their first league win of the season, having taken just one point from their opening eight games.

Their struggles continued with a 2-1 defeat at home to Raith Rovers last Saturday.

Arbroath also came out on top when these sides met in August, strengthening the case for backing the hosts with the draw no bet safety net.

Stenhousemuir have made a stunning start to the season, so it’s surprising to see them priced up as such big outsiders away at Inverness on Saturday.

Marvin Bartley’s men are strengthening their title credentials with every passing week, having won seven and drawn one of their opening eight league games of the season.

That stalemate came on the opening weekend, meaning the Warriors have since won seven successive Championship matches, including impressive away victories at Queen’s Park, Livingston and Ayr.

A solid defence has been central to that success, and I’m backing them with a +1.5 head start on the handicap against an Inverness side they have already beaten this season.

What’s more, the Caley Jags have won just one of their four home league games this season, with that solitary success coming against rock-bottom Morton.

Hearts look worth siding with to get back to winning ways when they host St Mirren in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday. 

Wouter Vrancken’s side saw their four-match unbeaten run ended by Falkirk before being held to a 1-1 draw by Kilmarnock.

However, Hearts have won all three of their home league games this season, seeing off both Dundee clubs and St Johnstone.

Those victories came against sides of a similar standard of opposition to that of St Mirren, and I think the Jambos’ superior quality will tell again this weekend.

The Saints went into the international break on the back of a third straight league defeat, losing 3-0 at home to Dundee United. 

That poor run adds to the appeal of backing Hearts to maintain their 100% home record.

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Football

Friday's Daily Double 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇩🇪 @ 2.11

Andy Robson

Dortmund have won both Bundesliga home games to nil so far

It’s going to be very tough for any side to visit the London Stadium and leave with anything of note this season, West Ham have grown into the season after a tough start and look well placed to pick up all three points as Championship action returns.

West Ham lost their opening home game of the campaign against Charlton, but have won their three games in front of their own fans since. They’ve scored 14 goals across these games, which is unsurprisingly one of the highest tallies at home in the Championship - only Southampton (15) have scored more goals at home than West Ham so far.

QPR are yet to lose on the road in the Championship this term, but this looks like a very uphill battle for Julien Stephan’s side - who only managed to win one of their last five games prior to the international break. This is easily QPR’s more difficult away assignment of the season so far, and I think we’ll see West Ham get back to winning ways following a lengthy international break.

Dortmund were in brilliant form before the international break, winning each of their last six games - notably winning three of these games to nil.

Dortmund have a perfect record at home so far this season too having won both of their games at the Signal Iduna against Paderborn and Hamburg, keeping clean sheets in both of these matches.

They take on a Werder Bremen side who were more relieved to see the international break having failed to win either of their two away games in the Bundesliga this term, conceding five goals across these games.

Werder Bremen also have a pretty poor record away at Dortmund, as most sides in the Bundesliga do, having won just two of the 16 meetings between the teams at the Signal Iduna. They lost 3-0 in this fixture last season, facing an xG of 2.42 while only producing 0.52 xG from six shots themselves.

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Football

Chelsea v Bournemouth Bet Builder 🧱 @ 6.30

Andy Robson

Chelsea have conceded the most goals in the PL so far

  • Chelsea v Bournemouth
  • Saturday

Chelsea’s defensive issues are quite deep rooted, the Blues have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 21 Premier League matches - stretching all the way back to a shut out against Brentford back in Liam Rosenior’s brief tenure.

Xabi Alonso’s side faced a sobering 3-0 defeat at Brentford just before the international break, which was a result that highlighted the lack of balance and defensive rigidity of the squad. They’ve seen BTTS in their other four Premier League games, conceding 12 goals across these matches: no side has conceded more goals in the Premier League than Chelsea this season.

Bournemouth are one of only three sides in the Premier League yet to register a win domestically, but they have drawn three of their five matches and have found the back of the net in all but one of their games - with that blank coming against Liverpool just before the international break.

This is usually a very entertaining game, each of the last three clashes between the sides at Stamford Bridge has seen BTTS with the meeting last year ending 2-2 with both sides posting healthy xG numbers (2.31-3.14).

On the opposite side, Marcus Tavernier is the danger man for Bournemouth. He already has three goals under his belt from five Premier League starts, averaging 2.74 shots per 90. Tavernier has landed this selection in three of those matches, including difficult matchups against Newcastle, Brentford and Man City.

Bournemouth have had a tough start under their new manager, but the fixture list has not been particularly kind to them. The Cherries have still given a good account of themselves against top sides, and they have been unfortunate to collect only three points. Given how poor Chelsea have been defensively, Bournemouth will view this as a winnable game, and they should be able to find success in the final third.

It didn’t take long for Morgan Rogers to open his goalscoring account for Chelsea, as he scored against Fulham on his debut. The former Aston Villa man has since added another two league goals, finding the back of the net against Arsenal and Hull, which has made him one of Chelsea’s standout performers during the opening weeks of the campaign.

Rogers has recorded at least two shots in all six of his starts for the Blues, landing this selection in four of those appearances. He registered two attempts against Hull, with both hitting the target, and he has managed to hit the target with four of his eleven shots overall.

Wesley Fofana has been a magnet for drawing fouls at the back this season, winning six free-kicks across his last three Premier League starts. The Frenchman is comfortable having the ball at his feet, and he sometimes looks to progress forward from the back, which invites tackles from opposing attackers and midfielders. 

Fofana should find plenty of duels against Evanilson this weekend, and the Brazilian likes to be aggressive when leading Bournemouth’s press. He averaged 0.88 fouls per 90 across all competitions last season, but that figure has risen considerably to 1.81 under Marco Rose this campaign. Evanilson has committed multiple infringements in four of his six starts, as he has been given a much bigger role under the new manager when it comes to leading the press.

Marco Rose’s men are yet to win in the Premier League this season, and they have looked vulnerable defensively at times. Bournemouth have conceded an average of 4.60 corners per match, and that figure could rise even further as they will miss Alex Scott for the next few weeks. 

Chelsea racked up 12 corners against Brentford before the break, despite eventually losing 3-0, and they recorded another ten against Hull in their previous fixture. The Blues are averaging 6.43 corners per game across all competitions this season, which shows how they have consistently been able to carve out chances in the final third. Xabi Alonso likes his wingbacks to get high to utilise width, which always brings crosses into play.

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Football

Andy's Scottish Double 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 @ 1.88

Andy Robson

My last Scottish Double won @ 2.31

Hearts look worth siding with to get back to winning ways when they host St Mirren in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday. 

Wouter Vrancken’s side saw their four-match unbeaten run ended by Falkirk before being held to a 1-1 draw by Kilmarnock.

However, Hearts have won all three of their home league games this season, seeing off both Dundee clubs and St Johnstone.

Those victories came against sides of a similar standard of opposition to that of St Mirren, and I think the Jambos’ superior quality will tell again this weekend.

The Saints went into the international break on the back of a third straight league defeat, losing 3-0 at home to Dundee United. 

That poor run adds to the appeal of backing Hearts to maintain their 100% home record.

I’m backing Partick Thistle to score at least once away at Livingston on Saturday.

The Jags got their promotion push back on track with an impressive 3-0 win over Arbroath last weekend.

While Mark Wilson’s side had been stuttering before that, their performances had been better than their results suggested, with a lack of cutting edge proving costly.

That victory should have lifted spirits within the Firhill camp ahead of a trip to Livingston, who lost 2-1 at home to Ayr last weekend despite playing with a man advantage for most of the game.

The Lions have also conceded in recent home games against Stenhousemuir and Inverness.

Thistle will represent a tougher test than either of those opponents, particularly given the firepower at their disposal.

The Jags have scored in two of their three league games away from home this season and won the reverse fixture 2-0, so they look well capable of finding the net again on Saturday.

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Football

Arsenal v Leeds Bet Builder 🧱 @ 4.32

Andy Robson

Saka & Calvert-Lewin both sit as their clubs' top scorers this season

  • Arsenal v Leeds
  • Saturday

Calvert-Lewin has started the season really well for Leeds, netting three goals across his five starts in the Premier League - a record that earned him a call up to the latest England camp, where he featured for a few minutes from the bench.

Calvert-Lewin has taken 11 shots in the Premier League this season (2.35 per 90), seeing seven of these efforts find the target (1.50 per 90). That’s a shot accuracy of 64%, which could be really useful for Leeds here against an Arsenal side who don’t concede many efforts.

Arsenal have conceded 3+ shots on target in each of their last three Premier League matches, conceding 5+ shots on target in two of these games against Chelsea and Brighton. 

Leeds are averaging 3.60 shots on target per game in the Premier League and Calvert-Lewin is clearly their main source of goals having accounted for 28% of the total goals that Daniel Farke’s side scored in the top flight last year. 

Saka is averaging 1.94 shots on target from 3.23 shots per 90, which is the third best in the Prem. He also carried that form into the international break, too, scoring two in three games for England from three shots on target.

But something else that stood out to me beyond his shooting stats is where he’s getting the ball. In the league so far, 45% of Arsenal's attacks have come down that right side, and 20% of their shots have come from that zone too.

Also, for England he had more touches in the opposition box than anyone else against both Spain and Croatia, so he's finding dangerous positions whoever he’s against.

Saka scored in this fixture last season as Arsenal came away 5-0 winners at the Emirates. He didn’t feature in the clash at Elland Road, which was another comfortable victory for Arsenal, but Arsenal managed nine shots on target in that clash.

Leeds are now really settled in the 3-5-2 shape that Daniel Farke switched to around halfway through last season, which sparked Leeds into life and pulled them away from the relegation zone.

The wingbacks are really important in this shape, they act as Leeds’ main outlet and can often be targeted by the opposition as a result. Bogle has been impressive in his role at right wingback this season, notably winning eight fouls across his five starts in the Premier League (1.95 per 90).

He’s shown decent consistency when it comes to winning fouls too, winning 29 fouls across his 32 starts in the Premier League last season (0.93 per 90). If you look at Bogle’s heat map, he pretty much hugs the right hand side of the pitch - making his direct opponent Calafiori. The Italian is just as adventurous as Bogle and is averaging 0.65 fouls committed per 90.

Arsenal battered Leeds in both head to head meetings last season, coming away 5-0 winners at the Emirates and 4-0 winners at Elland Road - dominating the underlying numbers in both games.

Arsenal did suffer a bruising defeat to Brighton just before the international break, but have been perfect at home this season: winning both of their games at the Emirates, having scored five goals across these matches and conceding just once.

Leeds are much more threatening when playing at Elland Road, and their struggles at the Emirates last season are likely to mean that three points are beyond their reach in this early kick off. Leeds have only managed to win one of their last five games, and have struggled a little in the final third on the road so far.

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Football

Friday's Bet of the Day 🎯 @ 1.72

Andy Robson

Guirassy scored in both games v Werder Bremen last season

  • Dortmund v Bremen
  • Tomorrow

I think Dortmund will win quite comfortably here, they’ve won both of their home games in the Bundesliga to nil and beat Werder Bremen home and away last season - with Guirassy scoring in both games.

Guirassy has always been a bit disrespected when it comes to people discussing top level strikers, he’s never quite in that conversation but has shown remarkable consistency for Dortmund in his two seasons at the club.

Guirassy has come away with a 20+ haul in both of his seasons at Dortmund, also hitting 30 goals in his final season at Stuttgart. He’s already scored twice in the Bundesliga this season, and also netted a brace in the Champions League against Villarreal.

He also carried his strong form in the early stages of the season into the international break, netting what proved to be the winner against Kenya and taking the most shots of any player (4).

Guirassy’s underlying numbers are also positive with the striker taking 13 shots across his four starts in the Bundesliga (3.43 per 90), seeing seven of these attempts find the target (1.85 per 90). 

Only Harry Kane (62) has scored more goals in the Bundesliga over the last two seasons than Guirassy (41). Some bookies have Guirassy as short as 1.4 to score in this game, 1.72 is an appealing price with his record at the start of the season.

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Football

Friday's Both Teams to Score Treble ⚽ @ 3.43

Andy Robson

These are the top three rated games on my Goals Sheet for Friday

Lyon arrive with genuine momentum in the title race. They sit second in Ligue 1, just two points behind Monaco, and their 10 goals are the joint-highest total in the division alongside Strasbourg.

Lens may be 15th, but chance creation has not been the problem. They average around 1.71 xG, rising to 1.84 at home, alongside 14.8 shots and 6.4 efforts on target per game. The concern is defensively: Lens have conceded in all five of their league matches.

Lyon have averaged two goals per league game, alongside 13.4 shots and around 1.48 xG. Their recent competitive results include a 3-1 win against Auxerre, a 2-1 victory at Anderlecht and a 4-0 win over Rennes.

Lens create plenty, Lyon are chasing top spot, and both have clear attacking incentives. That makes BTTS a strong fit for this matchup.

Sporting cannot afford to lose more ground in the title race. They arrive six points behind leaders Porto, who have taken a perfect 21 points from seven matches, while Sporting sit third with 15.

The visitors have scored in every league game so far, producing 17 goals in seven matches. They average around 1.61 xG and 13.4 shots per game, while their five most recent competitive fixtures produced 12 Sporting goals and four conceded, with BTTS landing three times.

Braga are more productive at home, averaging around 1.65 xG and 14.5 shots per game.

Sporting need to push for three points, while Braga have enough attacking firepower at home to cause problems. That combination keeps BTTS firmly in play.

Two of Norway’s most dangerous attacking sides meet here, and the title race adds another layer to the matchup. Viking sit top of the Eliteserien on 50 points, level with Bodø/Glimt, while their 54 goals are the highest total in the league.

Brann remain a major attacking threat at home, averaging around 1.97 xG and 16 shots per game at Brann Stadion. The problem is at the other end: they have conceded 16 goals in 11 home matches, keeping just one clean sheet.

Viking average around 1.87 xG and 16.3 shots per league game, underlining their consistent attacking output.

With Viking fighting for the title and Brann producing strong attacking numbers at home, both teams carry enough attacking threat to make BTTS stand out.

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Football

Premier League Shots Accumulator 🎯 @ 6.73

Andy Robson

Woodwork is included for the shot on target selections with Paddy Power

Yasin Ayari is averaging 2.72 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and that figure could rise further while Jack Hinshelwood remains out through injury. His absence has pushed Ayari into a more advanced midfield position, giving him more freedom to make runs into the box and look to get on the end of crosses.

The Swedish international landed this selection against Arsenal just before the break, recording two attempts during Brighton’s impressive 3-0 victory against the title-holders. He also scored for Sweden against Romania during the Nations League, so he should come into this full of confidence. Sunderland have won only one of their opening five league matches, making this a favourable matchup to target Ayari.

Reece James averaged 1.05 shots per 90 across all competitions for Chelsea last season, with that figure rising to 1.22 at Stamford Bridge. His attacking involvement has increased significantly under Xabi Alonso, who has pushed Reece James into midfield. The Englishman missed out against Brentford with a hamstring injury, but he should be fit to start this weekend. 

James is averaging 2.46 shots per 90 this season, and he has recorded multiple efforts at goal in all four starts. That includes three shots against Arsenal at the Emirates, despite that being a tough matchup for Chelsea. This clash against Bournemouth looks much better to target Reece James, as the Cherries are yet to win in the Premier League this season.

It has been a difficult start to life in the Premier League for Alvaro Arbeloa, as Fulham have only picked up two points from their opening five matches. They have scored five goals during that sequence, and Josh King has accounted for two of them.

The 19-year-old has established himself as a key player for Fulham in an advanced midfield position, and he has landed this selection in four of his five starts across all competitions. King has also recorded multiple shots in every Premier League start this term, which shows how involved he is in the final third. No player has recorded more shots on target than Josh King this campaign for Fulham.

The international break arrived at a good time for Man United, as they have failed to win any of their last three matches. Michael Carrick’s side will be desperate to bounce back strongly at Old Trafford, and this looks like the perfect matchup against a Tottenham team still searching for their first league victory. 

Bryan Mbeumo has been one of Man United’s most consistent players, as he has scored twice so far this campaign. The Cameroon international has also landed this selection in all five league starts, including three shots against Man City, and five efforts against Fulham. Mbeumo also scored against Spurs during Man United’s 2-0 victory at Old Trafford last season, so he should be looking forward to this matchup.

With three goals scored from six appearances in all competitions, no Brentford player has been more efficient in front of goal than Kevin Schade. The German international is averaging 2.38 shots per 90, and he has landed this selection in four of his five starts. Brentford have been excellent in the final third this season, and they are unbeaten in seven matches across all competitions. 

Meanwhile, Villa have only won one of their opening five matches, one of which was against Spurs who currently sit rock bottom of the league standings. They have looked vulnerable defensively, and Schade will hope to capitalise on that at Villa Park.

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Football

Saturday Night MLS Accumulator 🇺🇸⚽ @ 4.22

Ramis Ibrahim

My last MLS Acca won @ 4.14

Philadelphia have recovered really well from a slow start to the campaign and enter this clash having won each of their last six matches - netting 3+ goals in five of these games.

It’s no secret that Philadelphia have one of the most talented young players to come out of America in recent years with Cavan Sullivan pitching in with 12 goal contributions in the MLS this term despite still being a teenager. It’ll be interesting to see if his planned move to Manchester City materialises now with all the off field issues.

Real Salt Lake have lost four of their last five games ahead of this clash, but did manage to end that run of four consecutive defeats with a 3-0 win over New England last time out, which was a surprising result but one they deserved on the underlying numbers.

Philadelphia should have too much for this Real Salt Lake, even with that morale boosting win the away side earned last time out. Real Salt Lake are also without seven first team members here, including Diego Luna - who is their best player in my view.

There really isn’t much between these sides, San Jose sit slightly higher in the table but both occupy playoff positions in the Western Conference with this game being a good opportunity to spirit those spots.

Colorado notably boast the second best home record of any side in the Western Conference, only league leaders Vancouver have picked up more points in front of their own fans than Colorado with the home side here winning nine of their 13 matches and netting 25 goals in the process.

San Jose have only kept one clean sheet across their last five matches, but have avoided defeat across these games. They ran out 3-1 winners over Portland at home last time out, but did allow Portland to generate an xG of 1.33 and take more shots (18-13).

Furthermore, San Jose actually boast the joint best away record of any side in the Western Conference - once again levelling the playing field between these two as it matches Colorado’s impressive home record. San Jose have netted 24 goals across their 13 away games this term (1.84 per game).

Orlando have been one of my go-to sides for BTTS in the MLS this season, they’ve seen 112 goals across their 27 matches (4.14 per game), which is unsurprisingly more than any other side across the two divisions.

Orlando have lost each of their last three games ahead of this clash, but have seen BTTS in all three of these matches. They’ve also notably been the away side in all of these matches, which is generally where they have struggled all season - winning just three of their 14 games on the road, but still managing to score 25 goals which sums them up quite well.

Columbus have opposite recent form having won each of their last three matches, seeing BTTS in two of these games. They also have a pretty poor record on the road having won just two of their opening 13 matches and have also recently lost their manager following a comment he made to a female referee.

Each of the last five head to head meetings between the sides have seen BTTS, including the most recent clash which saw Columbus come away 2-1 winners in the Open Cup just last month.

Inter Miami are one of the most entertaining teams in football at the moment, there aren’t many sides that can concede 50 goals across 27 matches (1.85 per game) and still sit third in the league having lost just five of these games.

Their scoring power is usually what separates them from the rest of the sides in the division, no side has scored more goals than Inter Miami in the Eastern Conference of the MLS this term (64 - 2.37 per game). 

They clearly trust in their ability to simply outscore the opposition, making them a good team to back for goals at both ends.

DC United have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches, including putting three goals past Western Conference leaders in Vancouver in their most recent away game. 

They should be able to find a way past an Inter Miami side who have only kept one clean sheet across their last five matches - winning just once across these games as well.

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Football

Aston Villa v Brentford Bet Builder 🧱 @ 6.38

DB Spots Trends

Manzambi has settled in really well to the Premier League

  • Aston Villa v Brentford
  • Saturday

It hasn’t been the best start for Aston Villa, but they went into the international break on a high after beating Spurs 3-2. There were positive signs in the final third, although Villa still looked vulnerable defensively, which is understandable following the departures of Ezri Konsa and Emi Martinez.

Brentford have been much stronger so far, and they remain unbeaten across their opening seven competitive matches. However, they cannot afford to underestimate Unai Emery’s men, particularly at Villa Park. Brentford have been an entertaining team to watch, and BTTS has landed in five of their last six matches across all competitions. Similarly, BTTS has landed in each of the last four Aston Villa matches.

Johan Manzambi is back in the first-team picture for Aston Villa after recovering from injury. He made his first Premier League start against Spurs before the break and marked the occasion with a goal. The Swiss international registered four shots, with two hitting the target, while he also provided the assist for Nicolas Jackson.

Manzambi then remained heavily involved for Switzerland during the international break, recording ten shots across four Nations League appearances, of which six hit the target. The summer signing was brought in to replace Morgan Rogers following a stellar World Cup campaign, and he looks set for an advanced midfield role under Emery. Manzambi will be eager to announce himself in the Premier League, so he should be heavily involved in the final third.

Igor Thiago enjoyed an incredible previous campaign, scoring 22 Premier League goals for Brentford. He hasn’t been quite as prolific this term, but chances have still been flowing for the Brazilian. Thiago is averaging 2.98 shots per 90 across all competitions, which is the highest figure among regular starters in the Brentford squad.

He has accumulated 13 shots across five league appearances, with four of those hitting the target. Igor Thiago opened his account against Chelsea just before the international break, and this looks like a good matchup for him to double his tally. Aston Villa have conceded nine goals in five league matches this season, and they have been leaking chances defensively.

Manzambi was one of the most fouled players in the Bundesliga last season, with 78 infringements drawn for Freiburg at an average of 3.35 per 90. He likes having the ball at his feet, and should find duels against Kristoffer Ajer when looking to transition. 

The Norwegian centre back will also be directly up against Nicolas Jackson, which promises to be a difficult matchup in terms of pace. Jackson has quickly settled into his new role at Villa, replacing Ollie Watkins up front, and the Senegalese international scored against Club Brugge and Spurs before the international break. Ajer has committed a foul in four of his six starts this season, and Villa’s speed through the middle should force him into challenges again.

There is very little to split these sides, and it’s difficult to pick a winner pre-match. Both teams possess enough firepower to cause problems going forward, and that means we are likely to get quite an open encounter with chances available at both ends of the field. Brentford are averaging 4.40 corners per Premier League match this season, while also conceding exactly 5.0 per game.

There were 12 corners taken at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium when Aston Villa travelled there before the break, with 11 of those awarded to the hosts. There were another ten during their EFL Cup victory over Coventry, with Villa accounting for eight of those. This selection also landed in both head-to-head meetings last season.

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Football

West Ham v QPR Bet Builder 🧱 @ 3.38

Rob Elder

West Ham to continue to dominate

  • West Ham v QPR
  • Tomorrow

It’s going to be very tough for any side to visit the London Stadium and leave with anything of note this season, West Ham have grown into the season after a tough start and look well placed to pick up all three points as Championship action returns.

West Ham lost their opening home game of the campaign against Charlton, but have won their three games in front of their own fans since. They’ve scored 14 goals across these games, which is unsurprisingly one of the highest tallies at home in the Championship - only Southampton (15) have scored more goals at home than West Ham so far.

QPR are yet to lose on the road in the Championship this term, but this looks like a very uphill battle for Julien Stephan’s side - who only managed to win one of their last five games prior to the international break. This is easily QPR’s more difficult away assignment of the season so far, and I think we’ll see West Ham get back to winning ways following a lengthy international break.

As mentioned, West Ham have been pretty destructive, especially at home. Seven of their eight Championship games have had three or more goals, with a clean sweep for this selection on home soil.

They have immense quality that cannot be understated, with the majority of this squad being Premier League level players of course.

They’ve covered this selection themselves in each of their last three at home, scoring six, three and four.

QPR do carry a threat going forward and can definitely contribute here. They’ll play without fear and Millwall showed that with intensity, you can really get at this West Ham side.

This is a selection I’ve backed a few times and it’s still at a point that it’s worth it.

Incredibly, Mavropanos is the joint fourth highest scorer in the Championship this season. He’s got four goals, the same as Jarrod Bowen.

He is absolutely monstrous in the air and through Bowen and Engels, West Ham have exceptional deliveries into the box.

He’s had one or more shots in seven of nine domestically this season, averaging 1.92 per 90 minutes and he carried this into the break, having a shot in every game for Greece (seven in total).

Walker-Pieters has impressed me when I’ve watched West Ham this season. He’s brilliant at driving forward and getting them out of presses, but I do question his defensive ability.

He’s averaged 1.32 fouls per 90 minutes in the Championship so far this season, committing one or more in four of his five appearances.

He really struggled against Millwall. He made two fouls in the first-half before being hooked at half-time.

He’ll likely be tasked with stopping the dangerous Kwame Poku, who has drawn 1.19 fouls per 90 minutes.

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Football

Premier League Fouls Accumulator 🛑 @ 5.47

Andy Robson

Great price on Fofana to win a foul

Brighton have started the season in excellent form, but they still have one of the worst disciplinary records in the Premier League. In fact, they have picked up 12 yellow cards in five matches - only Hull, Bournemouth, Sunderland and Nottingham Forest have been carded more often than the Seagulls. Fabian Hurzeler wants his men to press strongly in midfield, making this a great matchup to target Enzo Le Fee. 

The Frenchman is averaging 2.38 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, with that figure rising to 2.67 at the Stadium of Light. He has drawn 14 fouls across six competitive appearances, including five during Sunderland’s Europa League victory over AZ Alkmaar. The Frenchman sees plenty of possession in Sunderland’s midfield and regularly carries the ball into congested areas. Brighton’s aggressive approach should give him opportunities to attract contact whenever he turns away from pressure.

John McGinn is averaging 2.99 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has been fouled multiple times in seven of his eight starts. Unai Emery has had McGinn starting on the right wing this season, and he usually stays wide to try and stretch the play. 

That should put McGinn directly up against Keane Lewis-Potter, as he has been operating at left-back for Brentford. The 24-year-old prefers playing further forward, so isn’t used to having as much of a defensive responsibility. He has committed nine fouls across his five Premier League starts, averaging 1.91 fouls per 90. This matchup against McGinn out wide looks optimal to target this market again.

Wesley Fofana will have to deal with Evanilson this weekend, and that is a matchup to keep an eye on. The Brazilian international likes to press aggressively from the front, and his foul numbers have increased significantly since Marco Rose took over as Bournemouth manager.

Evanilson averaged 0.88 fouls per 90 across all competitions last season, but that figure has risen to 1.81 this campaign. He has recorded multiple infringements in four of his six starts, including two fouls against both Man City and Liverpool, respectively. 

Meanwhile, Fofana has drawn exactly two fouls in each of his last three league starts, which shows how he can be adept at drawing contact, and alleviating some pressure on his side by getting free-kicks.

Omar Marmoush has started all five league games for Tottenham since arriving from Man City, operating either from the left or through the middle. If he returns to the wing at Old Trafford, he should find himself directly against Diogo Dalot.

Marmoush has drawn at least one foul in each of his last five Premier League starts, and he is averaging 1.88 fouls drawn per 90 for his new club.

The Egyptian is usually quite positive when he gets the ball, looking to turn and beat his man, which can make him a difficult player to contain. Dalot’s foul record has been inconsistent, but his numbers tend to increase when playing against a more direct winger. He committed three fouls against Man City before the international break, and two when facing Tottenham at Old Trafford last season.

It has been a mixed start for Ipswich, who have recorded two wins and three losses in their opening five Premier League matches. The Tractor Boys have looked a bit weak defensively at times, but they have been able to pose a danger in the final third, and Julio Enciso is a key reason for that. 

The Paraguay international has landed this selection in all five starts overall, including two fouls drawn against both Sunderland and Man United - Ipswich had an average of just 39% possession in those matches. Playing at Portman Road against a struggling Fulham side, Ipswich should be able to exert much more control on proceedings, which makes this price appeal.

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Football

Manchester United v Tottenham Bet Builder 🧱 @ 4.64

Andy Robson

United are yet to keep a clean sheet in the Premier League this season

  • Man Utd v Tottenham
  • Saturday

I can’t see this being a low scoring game between two teams who desperately need all three points here, even after a lengthy international break.

Manchester United are one of just three teams in the Premier League who are yet to keep a clean sheet this season, notably conceding eight goals across their opening five games from an xG against of 6.80.

Three of their four home games across all competitions have seen 3+ goals, with United conceding three goals against Brighton in the EFL Cup at Old Trafford last time out.

Tottenham haven’t fared much better than their opponents here, failing to win any of their five matches in the Premier League and keeping clean sheets in just two of these games. 

Their underlying chance creation numbers would suggest that they’re getting in the right areas (5.0 xG leading to two goals scored), and this is the perfect team to face in wanting to improve that conversion given how weak United look at the back right now.

The international break arrived at a good time for Man United, as they have failed to win any of their last three matches. Michael Carrick’s side will be desperate to bounce back strongly at Old Trafford, and this looks like the perfect matchup against a Tottenham team still searching for their first league victory. 

Bryan Mbeumo has been one of Man United’s most consistent players, as he has scored twice so far this campaign. The Cameroon international has also landed this selection in all five league starts, including three shots against Man City, and five efforts against Fulham. Mbeumo also scored against Spurs during Man United’s 2-0 victory at Old Trafford last season, so he should be looking forward to this matchup.

It’s fair to say that Omar Marmoush has found the move to Tottenham from Manchester City quite difficult so far, but one area where he has shown consistency in his early weeks as a Tottenham player is committing fouls.

Marmoush has committed eight fouls across his four Premier League starts for Tottenham already this season, working out to an average of 2.11 fouls committed per 90. He’s very eager to prove himself, which is understandable, but that often results in Marmoush being over aggressive with his challenges.

Marmoush is set to have quite a few battles with Harry Maguire in this clash, who is a centre back that is very comfortable on the ball and surprisingly good when it comes to winning fouls. 

Maguire has won four fouls across his five starts in the Premier League (0.80 per 90) and notably has a real physicality advantage over Marmoush, which should benefit this angle as Maguire is likely to win quite a lot of the duels between the pair.

Jan Paul van Hecke is a very important player for Roberto De Zerbi’s style of play with the former Brighton man being very comfortable on the ball and is familiar with the demands of the manager having worked with him at his former club.

Van Hecke has won five fouls across his five starts in the Premier League already (1.00 per 90) with the Dutchman being incredibly comfortable on the ball. He’s already completed 366 passes (73.2 per 90) and completed 106 line breaking passes (21.2 per 90) which are metrics that highlight Van Hecke’s strengths really well.

Benjamin Sesko is a doubt for this game, so Cunha or Mbeumo are likely to lead the line for United. The former has committed five fouls across his five starts in the Premier League this season (1.10 per 90) while Mbeumo also boasts a pretty decent foul average across the early games of the season (0.80 per 90). 

I’ve touched on the issues that United have faced defensively so far this season, being one of only three sides yet to keep a clean sheet in the division.

I wouldn’t put those defensive issues down to Lammens, he’s a top keeper in my opinion and is being asked to do far too much for his age and experience. 

He’s been forced into making 16 saves across his five starts in the Premier League (3.20 per 90), highlighting just how much United are relying on his shot stopping ability as their main defensive outlook. 

Tottenham have had issues when it comes to converting chances, but are still averaging 3.80 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season. I think they’ll be eager to take aim against Lammens in this clash as they face off against one of the weakest backlines in the division.

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Football

Andy's Sunday Accumulator 📈 @ 4.08

Andy Robson

Sassuolo are yet to keep a clean sheet & Betis are 3/3 at home in LaLiga

Oliver Glasner returns to Selhurst Park for the first time since leaving the club to join Nottingham Forest and I’m a bit concerned about his former club this season from what I’ve seen so far.

Crystal Palace have only managed to win one of their opening five Premier League games, with that victory coming against a Fulham side who I also expect to struggle based on the early signs.

What has been particularly alarming about Palace’s performances so far is how open they look at the back, conceding 11 goals across their five games with only Chelsea (12) conceding more goals in the Premier League so far.

There seems to be an air of discontent too, Sarr and Mateta both pushed for moves away from the club during the summer and there have been rumours of Pierre Sage already having disagreements with the higher ups at Palace.

Forest have scored four goals across their five games so far, but have recorded an xG of 7.30 from these matches. I think they are in a better spot than Palace at the moment and should be able to benefit from the defensive issues currently troubling Sage’s side. 

This is the game of the weekend, everyone will be watching to see how Anfield greets Manchester City following the news that dominated the second half of the international break that City had been found guilty on almost all of their 115 charges.

It’s easy to get sucked into the narrative around the game, but I'm focusing on what I’ve seen from these sides on the pitch so far - with City entering this game having won all five of their Premier League matches, scoring the second most goals of any side in the division (13) behind Brighton (16).

City have scored in all three of their away matches across all competitions against Palace, United and Porto - scoring multiple goals in two of these assignments. They also take on a Liverpool side that is depleted following the international break with Gakpo, Isak and Jacquet all being doubts for this game.

Liverpool have only managed to keep one clean sheet across their four games at Anfield this term across all competitions. I think they’ll miss the presence of Jacquet in particular here, leading to City having enough chances to find the back of the net.

If you’ve been keeping an eye on Serie A this season then you will have noticed a substantial increase in goals and this is directly linked to the rule changes that have been introduced in the league this season which make it a much more enjoyable product.

Only 10 sides in Serie A have actually managed to keep a clean sheet so far this season, highlighting exactly how these rule changes have led to more goals. Sassuolo are one of those teams, having conceded nine goals across their opening five games of the campaign.

Milan haven’t fared much better defensively with only two clean sheets from their opening five games. Ruben Amorim’s style is very chaotic and almost always leads to chances at both ends, which is something Sassuolo can benefit from as they’ve managed to score as many goals as they’ve conceded this season (9).

Real Betis are such a hard team to beat when they’re in front of their own fans and have won each of their three home games at the start of this campaign.

They’ve won these games without conceding a goal too, being the only side in LaLiga to keep a clean sheet in each of their three opening home matches. Their scoring power could be better from these games, but the overall control is worth factoring in to any angle in this game.

Osasuna have struggled on the road in LaLiga so far this season, winning just one of their three away matches. They’ve conceded 10 goals across these games (3.33 per game) - which is the third highest tally in LaLiga for sides when travelling away from home.

Betis beat Osasuna 2-0 in this fixture last season, and I can see a similar sort of scoreline playing out here with how both sides have started the season. I can’t see Osasuna being able to find a way past this stubborn Betis backline, and even if they do - it’s likely that they are outscored with their poor defensive record on the road. 

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Football

Sunderland v Brighton Bet Builder 🧱 @ 5.60

DB Spots Trends

Sunderland have only managed to win one of their opening five PL games

  • Sunderland v Brighton
  • Saturday

The Dutch international picked up a hamstring injury while playing for Netherlands during the international break, which is a massive blow for the Black Cats as he bagged a hat-trick against Man City in his last domestic match. Dan Ballard was another casualty during the Nations League fixtures, so Regis Le Bris’ men look depleted. 

Meanwhile, Brighton beat Arsenal 3-0 at home just before the break, bagging their 16th goal of the season despite being just five matches in. They have been the most efficient side in the Premier League in the final third so far. The Seagulls also progressed past Man United in the EFL Cup, after winning 3-2 at Old Trafford, so they are a side full of confidence at the moment.

Despite their impressive start, cards have still been a consistent market to target for Brighton. They have landed this selection in six of their eight matches across all competitions, averaging 2.25 cards per game. The only misses came against Coventry and Tromso, but Brighton won those matches by an aggregate score of 9-0.

This should be a much more competitive fixture, particularly with Sunderland playing at the Stadium of Light. The Black Cats have drawn at least two cards from their opponents in five of their seven matches across all competitions. They are unlikely to sit back and absorb pressure from Brighton this weekend - Sunderland will look to get on the ball and establish themselves on the ball, so Brighton should have enough defensive work to get through.

Charalampos Kostoulas has been another standout performer for Brighton this season, and he is averaging an impressive 4.42 shots per 90 across all competitions. The Greek international found the back of the net in each of his final three appearances before the break, landing this selection against both Arsenal and Man United.

Kostoulas has three goals and one assist to his name this season, and the 19-year-old has certainly not lacked confidence. After having a limited role under Fabian Hurzeler last season, Kostoulas has shown his quality so far, and he will hope to pick up where he left off just before the international break.

Nordi Mukiele averaged 0.88 shots per 90 across all competitions for Sunderland last season, with that figure rising significantly to 1.42 at the Stadium of Light. That trend has continued into the new campaign, as Mukiele has accumulated nine shots across five matches, with eight of those attempts coming on home turf.

When playing at right back, the Frenchman likes to push forward and join the attacks, while he is also a massive threat from corners and free-kicks due to his aerial ability. Brighton have been excellent this season, but they have at times shown a vulnerability at the back, having conceded twice against Man United, and four times against Chelsea. Both of those were away fixtures.

Pascal Gross has been a key reason behind Brighton’s excellent start to the season, and his performances earned him September’s Premier League Player of the Month award. The German international scored the opening goal against Arsenal, before then providing an assist for Chema Andres during the 3-0 victory over Arsenal.

Gross has also been a notable contributor to Brighton’s disciplinary record - he has picked up two yellow cards from the opening five league matches. He is averaging 1.60 fouls per 90 and has committed at least one infringement in every league match, including multiple fouls in three of those. Gross has shown a bit more of a willingness to jump into tackles this season, operating in the midfield double pivot.

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Football

Ipswich v Fulham Bet Builder 🧱 @ 5.80

DB Spots Trends

Enciso & King to play key roles here

  • Ipswich v Fulham
  • Saturday

Ipswich have already been involved in some high-scoring games this season, including a 5-2 defeat against Man United, a 4-2 loss against Arsenal in the EFL Cup and a 3-2 victory over Crystal Palace. Over 2.5 goals has landed in five of their seven matches across all competitions so far.

Similarly, this selection has landed in four of Fulham’s seven competitive fixtures. Arbeloa’s side have found the back of the net against Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Man United, but they remain without a Premier League clean sheet at Craven Cottage. Ipswich have conceded 11 goals across their opening five league matches, and the most recent meeting between these sides finished 2-2.

There were 11 corners when these sides last met at Craven Cottage, while the reverse fixture at Portman Road produced 14. Fulham are averaging 6.00 corners per game across all competitions this season. However, they are also conceding 5.00 per match, meaning their fixtures have averaged exactly 11 corners overall. 

Arbeloa encourages his fullbacks to advance, similar to his predecessor Marco Silva, which means corners remain a market to target. Ipswich are also likely to contribute - they have recorded at least three corners in all five of their league matches so far, including against Liverpool, Man United and Everton. Expecting chances at both ends of the field, corners should flow at Portman Road.

Julio Enciso has recorded more shots than any other Ipswich player this season, and he has landed this selection in three of his five starts across all competitions. The Paraguay international is averaging 3.69 attempts per 90, highlighting the freedom he has been given under Gary O’Neil.

Enciso usually starts in the number ten position, and he doesn’t usually hesitate to pull the trigger once the space opens up. 11 of his 17 shots in total this season have come from outside the box, but he should be able to find chances of a higher quality nature against Fulham this weekend, as the Cottagers have struggled to limit chances for their opponents so far.

Enciso is also averaging 1.95 fouls drawn per 90, which is the highest figure among regular starters in the Ipswich squad. He has drawn multiple fouls in four of his five starts, and the Paraguay international should find duels against Shea Charles in the middle of the pitch.

After completing a summer move from Southampton, Charles has only recorded one foul across his four league starts for Fulham. However, there is every expectation for that figure to increase as the season progresses. The Northern Ireland international averaged 1.55 fouls and 2.14 tackles per 90 across all competitions last season for Southampton, which shows how he likes to get stuck into challenges and protect the backline.

Josh King is averaging 2.81 shots per 90 across all competitions for Fulham this season, having been entrusted with a significant role in the number ten position by Arbeloa. The 19-year-old has recorded multiple shots in all five starts, landing this selection in four of those appearances, and he already has two league goals to his name.

It hasn’t been the best start to the campaign for Fulham, who have collected only two points from their opening five league matches, but King has been their most promising player, always looking to make things happen in the final third. He leads the Cottagers with seven shots on target from seven appearances across all competitions, and this looks like a favourable matchup for him against Ipswich.

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Football

Real Madrid v Villarreal Bet Builder 🧱 @ 3.50

Rob Elder

Both sides average above 3.5 match goals

  • Real Madrid v Villarreal
  • Saturday

I’m kicking off with a selection favouring the visitors. Madrid have conceded eight times already this season and haven’t impressed me defensively in the slightest.

Perez netted his first of the season just prior to the international break and has averaged a hefty 1.81 shots on target per 90 minutes.


His shot volume is considerable too at 3.88 per 90 minutes.

He’s had a shot on target in all five of his starts so far this season and also managed to hit the target in a 29 minute cameo against Alaves.

His seven shots on target is the second highest in the Villarreal squad.

Mbappe has drawn an average of 1.14 fouls per 90 minutes in La Liga this season and his recent form in this market has been excellent with five fouls drawn in his last two - two against Atleti and three against Elche.

Of course, Mbappe becomes a bit of a target because of his personality but also his ability. He’s averaging above three shots on target per game and already has four goals.

Renato Veiga and Santiago Mourino have combined for 13 fouls so far this season at the heart of the Villarreal defence.

The price here looks generous for a player who has committed nine fouls already this season, the second-highest in the Villarreal squad.

That makes his average a hefty 2.14 per 90 minutes, so 1.44 for one foul on various sites looks like a very nice price.

Buchanan will line-up on the left of midfield and he works back defensively, as a player who can also play full-back.

He’ll line up against either Yan Diomande or Arda Guler who draw 3.44 and 2.89 fouls per 90 minutes, respectively.

Six of Madrid’s seven games so far have seen three or more match goals with an average of 3.71 per match.

They’ve also managed just one clean sheet in La Liga. It’s deserved too, as they’ve conceded an average of 1.44 xGA per match, but they are creating a huge 2.55 xGF.

As for the visitors, they’ve also seen this selection land in six out of seven games and their matches have averaged 3.57 goals and they’re one of five sides in the division who are yet to keep a clean sheet up to this point.

They are dangerous going forward and have averaged 1.99 xG per match.

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Football

West Brom v Birmingham City Bet Builder 🧱 @ 4.06

Rob Elder

Cards to flow in heated clash

  • West Bromwich v Birmingham
  • Saturday

Although not the main derby for either side, this fixture does carry more needle than your standard fixture.

There were six cards and 26 fouls when the two sides met last time in a 0-0 draw.

Birmingham have averaged two cards per match exactly this season and have received over 1.5 in 88% of their Championship outings.

West Brom have been excellent at drawing cards on home soil, with an average of 2.5 per match. No side has left The Hawthorns without a card and 75% have had two or more.

Good price available here on Birmingham’s left-back, who has averaged 1.10 fouls per 90 minutes.

Cochrane has committed a foul in four of his last six, with seven fouls in total, including two in the derby match against Wolves, which is a good match to compare to in terms of temperament.

West Brom have options on the right to go up against Cochrane and they all draw fouls.

Most likely it will be Harry Whitwell. Whitwell has drawn 2.89 fouls per 90, the highest of any player with regular minutes in the Baggies squad.

The other option, and likely to get some minutes is Rabby Nzingoula, who has drawn an average of 2.22 fouls per 90 minutes.

I love taking this selection on Birmingham City games because Iwata loves taking on a strike from distance.

He has got a cannon of a right-foot and has scored some wonderful goals.

If the ball drops to him, you can be pretty confident he’s going to let fly.

Iwata has averaged 1.27 shots per 90 and has had at least one shot in each of his last five games, having two shots in three of those. He’s had at least one shot in seven of his nine starts this season.

Iwata’s 10 shots this season is the fourth highest in the Blues’ squad.

There was 26 fouls when these two last met and it should be a feisty affair as mentioned.

Morgan has been an excellent addition for West Brom and provides serious value at the top-end of the pitch. He is also very prominent in the foul markets.

Morgan has averaged 2.09 fouls per 90 minutes in the Championship this season so the 1+ at odds of around 1.25 is a nice little addition to a bet builder.

He’s committed one or more fouls in seven of his eight Championship matches this season and racked up three in the derby match against Wolves.

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Football

Napoli v Frosinone Bet Builder 🧱 @ 3.65

Rob Elder

Frosinone to go to war in Naples

  • Napoli v Frosinone
  • Saturday

Frosinone have had a superb start to the season. They’ve scored nine goals in five games and have suffered just one defeat - a narrow 1-0 to Juventus.

Massimiliano Alvini has already scooped a manager of the month award for how well his newly promoted side have started.

A key to that has been Raimondo. The 22 year-old striker has already netted four times in five games and has averaged 1.30 shots on target per 90.

His six shots on target and 14 shots are the highest in the Frosinone squad.

I’m all in on Frosinone picks for this bet builder and the next three are all player fouls. Frosinone are very aggressive, they press hard and play at a high-intensity.

Schmid is one of the midfield anchors, he has averaged 1.40 fouls per 90 minutes so far.

The Austrian has committed one or more fouls in four out of five games and interestingly, his numbers have been substantial in their toughest games.

He made four fouls against Juventus and two against Fiorentina.

Stanislav Lobotka is Napoli’s most fouled player. He’s been fouled 11 times already this season and will be in the midfield fight with Schmid.

Schmid’s partner in crime is Calo. So again, another player who’ll have to deal with Lobotka. Anguissa and Gilmour also draw good foul numbers in that Napoli midfield.

Calo has averaged 1.49 fouls per 90 minutes and has committed one or more fouls in five of his six Serie A matches.

Again, his numbers jumped up in that test against Juve. Calo made three fouls in that match. So seven combined with Schmid, making up more than 50% of Frosinone’s 15 fouls in that game.

Last up is the Frosinone left-back, Gabriele Bracaglia.

He’s already been carded three times this season and racked up 12 yellows in 32 games in Serie B last season.

The 23 year-old has averaged 1.74 fouls per 90 minutes this season and has committed the second most fouls in the Frosinone squad (8).

Again, he has committed a foul in four out of five Serie A matches and racked up three against Fiorentina. 


His direct opponent will be Matteo Politano, who has been fouled four times so far this season, the second-most in the Napoli squad, at an average of 1.08 times per 90 minutes.

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Football

Cagliari v Juventus Bet Builder 🧱 @ 4.13

Rob Elder

Conceicao prices still look too big

  • Cagliari v Juventus
  • Sunday

Every Juventus game I tip on, I keep coming back to fouls for the Portuguese winger, I’m surprised his odds haven’t shortened further when you look at some of the other prices available.

Conceicao has averaged a massive 2.75 fouls per 90 minutes in Serie A this season. He’s made at least two fouls in three of his five league games so far.

Including racking up four against both Parma and Frosinone.

He is very aggressive in his desire to get the ball back and will hunt down his opposite number to try and turn over the ball as quickly as possible.

He was also sent off in the international break for Portugal.

Of course, the wide man is also a threat going forward. He’s averaged 1.25 shots on target per 90 minutes and his five shots on target is the most in the Juve squad.

He’s had one or more in four out of five Serie A matches so far this season.

Against Inter, Cagliari conceded seven shots on target and they’ve conceded an average of 4.20 per 90 minutes.

Juventus can be frustrating at times but they have only been beaten once so far and produced an excellent 2-0 win against Atalanta before the break and also a drubbing of NEC in Europe.

The Frenchman can be an incredibly frustrating watch, as Juve fans are finding out. One thing he does do well at though, is winning fouls.

He’s been fouled eight times so far this season, the most of any Juve player, working out at an average of 1.60 times per 90 minutes.

He’s been fouled at least once in four out of five games this season. He’s also one of the more nailed on players for good minutes, as he’s played 90 in every game bar one; in which he played 88 minutes.

The young midfielder, on-loan from Roma, has had an excellent start to the season and earned himself game-time for Italy in the international break.

Romano has been racking up plenty of shots and the price here looks generous, especially with some of the space that Juve give up in midfield.

He’s had seven shots so far, an average of 1.42 per 90 minutes and the third most in the Cagliari squad.

He’s had at least one shot in every single game this season and also managed one in both of his starts for Italy during the break.

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