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I really like this price for Greece to avoid defeat against a Germany side who have only managed to win one of their three games under Jurgen Klopp so far.

Greece beat Germany 1-0 when the nations met in Augsburg last week, they did get a bit lucky but Germany didn’t do enough to win the game and there ended up being very little between the two in terms of xG (1.27-0.72) despite Germany having double the number of shots as Greece.

Greece have avoided defeat in all three of their games in this Nations League group so far, which is really impressive considering that they’re competing alongside Germany and Netherlands in this group, as well as Serbia - who are by far the weakest side.

Greece have also scored in all three of their games so far, netting 2+ goals in two of these games. I think they have enough momentum to cause a bit of an upset again, and Germany still clearly have a lot of work to do to become a consistent side under Klopp.

I was happy to lay the Portugal clean sheet ahead of their clash with Denmark on Thursday night, siding with both teams to score, and after they conceded two (winning 4-2), the first of which came after 23 minutes, I’m going in again when they host a very competitive Norway.

In Portugal’s 2-1 win in Norway last week, the scoreline really flattered them.

This bet was in after 51 minutes, Norway had 62% possession, won the xG battle 2.52-1.04 and the shot count 22-12.

Portugal are top of this group with nine points from nine, but it’s not been convincing and Norway will be desperate to get back on track after losing in Wales in midweek - a match that was heavily impacted by a 46th minute red card.

Back-to-back home games suits Wales here, building some confidence with an important win over Norway on Thursday night (2-1).

Denmark lost 4-2 at home to Portugal that same evening, and conceded 2.25 xG and 10 shots on target on their home patch.

Wales edged the first half in Denmark last week, losing 2-0, and the Danes have conceded in six of their last eight competitive outings - clean sheets are not a regular occurrence.

In the last year they’ve conceded twice to Belarus, four times to Scotland, twice to Czechia, with their only shutouts coming against North Macedonia and Wales.

It’d be a surprise to see them keep another one in Wales, the latter will likely move into the qualification spots with a win.

Ireland raced into a 3-0 lead inside just 25 minutes when these nations faced off last week, and I think this is a nice price to back Ireland to collect all three points against Israel again.

Ireland have had a mixed Nations League campaign so far, following up their 3-0 win over Israel with a 2-2 draw against Austria at home. That result looks decent on paper, but Ireland will feel as though they should have got more from the game as they held a 2-0 lead early on.

Israel are yet to win a game in the Nations League, conceding 3+ goals in both of their matches against Austria and Ireland. They did manage to keep Kosovo quiet last time out, but still conceded 18 shots and four shots on target while offering very little attacking threat themselves. 

I was happy to lay the Portugal clean sheet ahead of their clash with Denmark on Thursday night, siding with both teams to score, and after they conceded two (winning 4-2), the first of which came after 23 minutes, I’m going in again when they host a very competitive Norway.

In Portugal’s 2-1 win in Norway last week, the scoreline really flattered them.

This bet was in after 51 minutes, Norway had 62% possession, won the xG battle 2.52-1.04 and the shot count 22-12.

Portugal are top of this group with nine points from nine, but it’s not been convincing and Norway will be desperate to get back on track after losing in Wales in midweek - a match that was heavily impacted by a 46th minute red card.

Back-to-back home games suits Wales here, building some confidence with an important win over Norway on Thursday night (2-1).

Denmark lost 4-2 at home to Portugal that same evening, and conceded 2.25 xG and 10 shots on target on their home patch.

Wales edged the first half in Denmark last week, losing 2-0, and the Danes have conceded in six of their last eight competitive outings - clean sheets are not a regular occurrence.

In the last year they’ve conceded twice to Belarus, four times to Scotland, twice to Czechia, with their only shutouts coming against North Macedonia and Wales.

It’d be a surprise to see them keep another one in Wales, the latter will likely move into the qualification spots with a win.

Back-to-back home games suits Wales here, building some confidence with an important win over Norway on Thursday night (2-1).

Denmark lost 4-2 at home to Portugal that same evening, and conceded 2.25 xG and 10 shots on target on their home patch.

Wales edged the first half in Denmark last week, losing 2-0, and the Danes have conceded in six of their last eight competitive outings - clean sheets are not a regular occurrence.

In the last year they’ve conceded twice to Belarus, four times to Scotland, twice to Czechia, with their only shutouts coming against North Macedonia and Wales.

It’d be a surprise to see them keep another one in Wales, the latter will likely move into the qualification spots with a win.

I’ve backed this angle in Wales’ last two games and it’s landed on both occasions with Williams having 3+ shots v Denmark last week and 2+ shots against Norway last time out, as well as finding the back of the net.

Williams is really consistent when it comes to taking aim and is also on free kicks for Wales - which is where his goal against Norway came from last time out. Williams has taken five shots already in the Nations League, with three of these efforts coming from outside of the box.

Williams has taken six shots across five starts in the Premier League this season (1.20 per 90), maintaining a very similar average across 36 starts in the Premier League last season (1.29 per 90). 

Wales should be able to take quite a lot of confidence from their 2-1 win over Norway last time out, which was their first win in this challenging Nations League A group.

Craig Bellamy has previously spoken about wanting to see this Wales side tested by the best sides to better prepare them for major tournaments and they’ve had that in their away games against Denmark and Portugal so far, losing both games without getting on the scoresheet.

However, this Wales side are a different team in front of their own crowd - 15 of their 21 goals during World Cup qualifying came in front of their own fans and I think corners could present a good avenue to goal against this Denmark side.

Wales racked up exactly four corners in their 2-0 defeat on the road to Denmark last week, showing how Craig Bellamy’s side can still be competitive on the corner count even if they struggle in the game more widely.

Ben Davies and Chris Mepham really struggled against Rasmus Hojlund last week and I can see the same scenario developing here with the former United struggling targeting Davies in particular due to the size difference between the two.

Davies committed two fouls when these nations met last week, with Chris Mepham also tempted into committing two fouls against Hojlund - who was fouled four times in total. Hojlund sometimes get overly obsessed with the physical battle against centre backs, which is good for our selection but does harm his overall output as a striker.

Davies struggled in a similar manner with Ronaldo and Felix in Wales’ opening game of their Nations League campaign against Portugal. He committed 2+ fouls in that game too, providing a decent level of evidence to suggest that Davies will foul at least once again here.

Luke Humphries has grown into the tournament, as many of the top players do, and produced his best display in the semi-finals - beating James Wade 5-3 in sets and 18-14 in legs with an average of 96.83.

This average line is obviously set a lot lower than it usually is for Humphries due to the double start format, but that doesn’t concern me as much with the world number two as he’s so good at getting into the leg, especially on double 16.

Humphries averaged 92.5 or higher in seven of the eight sets against James Wade, hitting 10+ 180s in that victory and showing real consistency above this line despite the different format. Humphries clearly doesn’t mind this format anyway, this is his fourth consecutive appearance in the final.

Luke Humphries also regularly gets to the final of major events, producing convincing averages consistently:

Euro Tour Final 12 - 94.81 ✅
Player Champ 28 Final - 93.88 ✅
World Series 4 Final - 104.05 ✅
World Series 3 Final - 98.83 ✅
Premier League Final - 105.60 ✅
Player Champ 17 Final - 104.89 ✅
Euro Tour 3 Final - 97.37 ✅
Player Champ 4 Final - 104.62 ✅
Masters Final - 105.51 ✅

2026 Final Average - 101.06 

That’s remarkable consistency under real pressure and he’ll see this as his best chance in some time at picking up a major with quite a few of those finals seeing him lose to Luke Littler, despite the impressive underlying numbers.

France ran out 1-0 winners over Belgium when these nations met last week thanks to a late goal from Michael Olise which the Bayern man took really well to give Zidane his second win as France boss.

France have avoided defeat in all three of their Nations League games so far, beating Türkiye and Belgium to nil. They were held to a 1-1 draw by Italy last time out, but did have six more shots on target than their opponents in that clash.

This Belgian side is still quite young and developing under new coach Mark van Bommel, they struggled to get on the ball in their 1-0 defeat to France last week - only managing two shots on target from the 35% share of the ball they had. I think France will control the game again here and come away with a fairly comfortable victory.

Italy surprised quite a few people with their 4-1 win over Türkiye last week. Mancini’s side were extremely clinical in converting an xG of 2.28 to four goals from eight shots on target and 22 touches in the opposition box.

They didn’t keep things that tight at the back through, actually facing a higher xG against (2.98) with Türkiye also having one extra shot than Italy despite the heavy defeat they suffered in front of their own fans. Türkiye have only scored once in the Nations League so far, but have notably generated an xG of 1.0 or higher in every game. 

Italy have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their three Nations League games so far, and I think Tutkiye will be able to post similar underlying numbers to the meeting between the nations last week, resulting in both sides finding the back of the net.