Four of our last five Player Matchup bets have won ✅

Dango Ouattara committed three fouls in the initial league meeting between these sides, with Brentford committing 14 fouls overall as they came away 3-1 winners over United. Ouattara has committed a foul in each of his last two Premier League appearances, and has a favourable matchup here against Luke Shaw and Matheus Cunha.

Ouattara has committed 24 fouls across his 21 Premier League starts this term (1.14 per 90), and is also averaging over 7.0 defensive contributions per 90 - which is standout for a winger, and tells us that Ouattara actively gets back to help out Kayode behind him - who also committed two fouls in the most recent head to head clash between the sides. 

I think Ouattara will have to track back quite often here to help Kayode manage the threat of Cunha. Ouattara also has to keep an eye on Luke Shaw, who has won a foul in each of his last five Premier League appearances, and may push up to support Cunha if he is being given special attention by Keith Andrews’ side.

Four of our last five Player Matchup bets have won ✅

Matheus Cunha was fouled three times when these sides met earlier in the season, with Kayode and Ouattara down his side of the pitch combining to commit five of the 14 fouls that Brentford gave away at the Gtech Community Stadium in their 3-1 win over Manchester United. 

Cunha has always been very strong when it comes to winning fouls, he’s drawn 50 across his 26 starts in the Premier League this season (2.00 per 90), and should be able to test Kayode and Ouattara to a similar extent as he did earlier in the campaign. Cunha also maintained an average of 2.46 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League last season - so this is clearly a strong part of his game given his consistency in this metric over the last few seasons. 

Igor Thiago has enjoyed a brilliant campaign so far, having netted 21 goals across his 32 starts in the Premier League - only Erling Haaland (24) has scored more goals than the Brazilian in the top flight this term. This is particularly impressive as Thiago’s goal tally accounts for 43.75% of the total goals that Brentford have scored in the Premier League this season.

It is worth noting that seven of Thiago’s fouls have come from the penalty spot. This isn’t to criticise the achievement of the Brentford forward, but it helps put into context just how he’s managed to end up sitting just behind Erling Haaland in the scoring charts. He’s a decent player, and almost always is a handful, but I’d question whether he can replicate this goal tally again, as his non-penalty xG sits around 12.8.

That being said, he’s reliable to back for a shot on target at the moment, having taken 76 shots across his 32 starts in the Premier League (2.41 per 90), seeing 39 of these efforts find the target (1.24 per 90). He scored twice from three shots when these sides faced off earlier in the season, and can offer a threat in front of goal again here.

I really enjoy watching Cunha play for United. He’s got that natural arrogance you need to play for a club of the stature of United, and his talent becomes obvious after a few minutes of watching him play.

I think he could score more goals for the number of shots he takes. He’s scored eight in the Premier League this season, which isn’t a bad return - only Sesko and Mbeumo (9) have more in the Premier League, but I’d like to see him push on to the sort of numbers he was posting for Wolves last season, where he netted 15 goals across his 29 starts.

This is a bit harder for Cunha as he’s no longer the main player in the side, but his shot volume hasn’t changed that much from his time at the Wanderers. Cunha has taken 78 shots in the Premier League this season (3.13 per 90), seeing 32 of these efforts find the target (1.28 per 90).

Each of the last five head-to-head meetings between these sides has seen BTTS, with the most recent clash ending 3-1 to Brentford at the G-Tech Community Stadium. Did you know that United have only kept six clean sheets all season? Only the two relegated sides have kept fewer shutouts (6) than Carrick’s side, which has been a recurring problem as United found themselves towards the tail end of this table last season too.

Brentford haven’t been too much better at the back with only nine clean sheets across their 33 Premier League matches this season (27%), and Keith Andrews’ side have conceded 2+ goals in three of their last five matches in the Premier League - notably drawing all five of these recent games. Brentford’s 16 away games in the Premier League have seen 45 goals (20 scored, 25 conceded - 2.81 per game).

Manchester United have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, only keeping a clean sheet against Chelsea in this period - who probably should have scored at least once from their 21 shots and xG of 1.57 - as well as hitting the crossbar on two separate occasions. This should come down to Brentford finding the back of the net, but I’d back Keith Andrews’ side to do that here, given the opportunity that’s in front of the Bees, with Brentford only sitting one point below a European spot.

I think this is a generous price, and I’d consider taking it as a single as well, given how busy Senne Lammens has been between the sticks for United this season. The biggest compliment I could probably give to Lammens is that we don’t talk about him that much, which is a sign that a keeper is doing their job.

Andre Onana was constantly in the spotlight and a topic of discussion, while Lammens doesn’t attract that same fanfare and probably doesn’t get the praise he deserves for being so assured at the back in one of the toughest roles in football. Lammens has been called into action 63 times across his 27 starts in the Premier League this season (2.33 per 90).

He was forced into making three saves against Chelsea last time out, and it’s important for how Carrick is currently setting up the side - which is a mid-block that then looks to platform the abundance of talent that United have in the final third through counter attacks. Lammens keeps United in games for Carrick’s side to be able to play in this way.

Lammens also had to make three saves in his most recent game at Old Trafford as United lost 2-1 to Leeds, while Bayindir was forced into making five stops when United travelled to the G-Tech earlier in the campaign and had to endure Brentford managing eight shots on target and coming away 3-1 winners.

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Both sides are battling for the one automatic promotion spot remaining in the Championship, separated by just four points.

Southampton have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, keeping just three clean sheets across their last 10 matches.

Ipswich have seen BTTS in two of their last three Championship matches.

Each of the last four head to head meetings between these sides since 2024 has seen BTTS, the most recent meeting finished 1-1.

Our last two stat based accas have won @ 4.50 & 4.16 ✅

Northampton have lost each of their last 10 matches across all competitions, last earning a point on the 28th February.

Only Port Vale (21) have picked up fewer points at home than Northampton (22) in League One this season.

Barnsley avoided defeat when these sides met earlier in the season, with that game finishing 2-2.

Barnsley have avoided defeat in each of the last five head to head meetings between these sides since 2023.

Our last two stat based accas have won @ 4.50 & 4.16 ✅

Stockport have only lost five of their 22 home games in League One this season.

Port Vale have already been relegated from League One, and have won just one of their last five matches across all competitions.

Port Vale have only won five of their 22 away games in League One this term.

Only Rotherham (15) and Northampton (16) have scored fewer goals on the road in League One than Port Vale (17).

Stockport have faced Port Vale twice this season, winning both games by an aggregate scoreline of 7-0.

These sides have already faced off in the Champions League this season, with BTTS landing on that occasion as Bayern came away 2-1 winners over PSG at the Parc Des Princes. That victory made Bayern one of less than a handful of sides that have managed to come to the Parc Des Princes and win over the last few seasons in the Champions League, and sets up Vincent Kompany’s side to get on the scoresheet again here.

That game earlier in the season saw a combined 14 shots on target and both sides registering an xG in excess of 1.0 (1.95-1.53). Bayern Munich have seen BTTS in three of their last four matches, most recently going 3-0 down to Mainz at the weekend before rallying to win 4-3 - a perfect example of how Kompany’s side can be comfortable in high scoring matches with the elite scoring power they have through Kane, Olise and Diaz.

Bayern come into this game having avoided defeat across their last 19 matches, averaging over 3.0 goals per game in this run of fixtures. I can’t see how this clash stays low scoring, there is the factor of it being a first leg so there may be cagey moments at times - but the attacking quality on display in both camps should lead to both sides being able to get on the scoresheet.

Michael Olise scored another brilliant goal at the weekend, there’s an angle available from the crowd if you haven’t seen it where you can see the curve and dip on the ball when he strikes it - it’s well worth the watch. He’s reached another level this season alongside the likes of Diaz and Kane with the trio forming one of the most well balanced frontlines i’ve seen in the modern game.

Olise has scored 22 goals across all competitions for Bayern Munich this season, already eclipsing his tally of 17 he managed in his debut year having played just one game more than he did last term. He’s registered 10 goal contributions across his 11 starts in the Champions League, four of these being goals, which has been achieved from a shot total of 39 (3.90 shots per 90).

Of these 39 efforts from Olise, 16 have found the target (1.60 per 90). These underlying numbers are very impressive, and when paired with the confidence that Olise is currently playing with - there should be opportunities for the former Palace winger to find the target, as he did on two occasions when these sides met in the league phase of the Champions League.

Konrad Laimer is a player that I’ve backed regularly for fouls during this Champions League campaign and he rarely disappoints. The former midfielder now almost exclusively operates as a fullback, and is expected to fill in at left back here where he’ll have a tough test against the likes of Desire Doue and Achraf Hakimi.

Laimer isn’t a bad player, but if you were PSG that’s where you’d be looking to target Bayern as their pressure point. There’s so much attacking quality in this Bayern side that it’s easy to overlook the shortcomings of their backline - which was almost torn apart solely by Vinicius Jr and Mbappe in the second leg of their quarter final clash against Real Madrid.

Laimer has committed 15 fouls across his nine starts in the Champions League this term (1.88 per 90), picking up four yellow cards in the process. I think he’ll struggle to manage Doue in a similar way to how he struggled with Vinicius Jr in the quarter final, Doue has won 14 fouls across his six starts in the Champions League this term (2.08 per 90), and when supported by Hakimi (0.95 fouls won per 90) - the pair should be able to draw at least two fouls from Konrad Laimer.

Ousmane Dembele wins fewer fouls than you may think (0.62 per 90), but this selection mainly focuses on the aggressive and occasionally clumsy nature of the Bayern Munich backline. Vincent Kompany’s side committed 22 fouls across the two legs of their quarter final tie against Real Madrid, with 12 of these fouls being committed by a member of their back four.

Jonathan Tah and Dayot Upamecano both committed 2+ fouls each in the first leg of Bayern’s clash against Real Madrid - struggling to handle the threat of Vinicius Jr and Mbappe. I can see the centre back duo struggling a little again here with the rotations that PSG can put together with how fluid their front three is. Dembele doesn’t just stay in central areas either, he swaps with Doue and Kvaratskhelia - so there will be times where Dembele will be facing up against Laimer (1.88 fouls committed per 90).

This selection landed via Super Sub when the sides met earlier in the campaign. Dembele didn’t really get a chance to test the backline of Bayern as he went off injured after the first 25 minutes of the encounter. He should be able to have a proper run at Tah and Upamecano here - who combine to commit 3.48 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this term.

I’ve picked out the standout players for Tuesday’s Champions League semi-final for an 8/1 double which looks strong on paper.

Kane is enjoying another strong season for Bayern Munich having netted 12 goals across his 10 starts in the Champions League. Kane has scored in each of his last four appearances across all competitions for Bayern Munich, including in the second leg of Bayern’s quarter final clash against Real Madrid - a game in which he managed two shots on target from three attempts overall.

Kane is averaging 4.19 shots per 90 in the Champions League this term which is an astronomical average to maintain in this competition. He’s also seen 21 of his 40 attempts in total find the target, working out to a promising average of 2.20 shots on target per 90. This is an average he’s maintaining in the Bundesliga as well (4.63 shots per 90 & 2.63 shots on target per 90).

Kane is also very capable when it comes to winning fouls having drawn 19 across his 10 starts in the Champions League this season (1.99 per 90). He was fouled twice in both legs of Bayern’s quarter final clash against Real Madrid, with this trait of Kane’s directly related to the centre forward being encouraged to drop into deeper pockets under Vincent Kompany. 

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is enjoying some season for PSG, he’s already just one goal contribution away from matching the total set by Ousmane Dembele for PSG in the Champions League last season - which was a run of form that probably gave him the edge in the Ballon D’or rankings. Kvaratskhelia really isn’t too far away from that elite level, having netted eight goals across 11 starts in the Champions League this season.

Kvaratskhelia has actually scored more goals in the Champions League this season (8) than he has in Ligue 1 (7), despite playing five more games domestically. He’s averaging 4.28 shots per 90 in the Champions League this term - which is actually higher than Harry Kane, showing just how often the winger has been taking aim in the Champions League this term.

He’s almost impossible to stop when he gets going, averaging 2.65 fouls won per 90 in the Champions League this term. He’ll be up against the likes of Laimer and Stanisic when rotating between the two wings, who are the weaker points in this Bayern side that PSG will be trying to expose as often as possible.

Dayot Upamecano has always been a bit of a clumsy centre-back. This is probably his best season to date, but he still has that reckless streak in him – and I can see the Frenchman and his partner Jonathan Tah struggling with some of the rotations that PSG are able to put together in the final third and through their dynamic midfield.

Luis Enrique said something really interesting the other day in an interview I saw, where he mentioned that he wants a group of players who can play anywhere – suggesting it would cause a nightmare for opponents since they wouldn't know who will play where. I'd argue he's actually not that far from achieving this already with this PSG side, who all look comfortable in different areas of the pitch.

Upamecano is averaging 1.61 fouls committed per 90 in the Champions League this season, a fairly substantial increase on his numbers in the Bundesliga. He'll be up against a front three for PSG who average 5.35 fouls won per 90 in this competition.

Ousmane Dembélé wins fewer fouls than you might think (0.62 per 90), but this selection mainly focuses on the aggressive and occasionally clumsy nature of the Bayern Munich backline. Vincent Kompany's side committed 22 fouls across the two legs of their quarter-final tie against Real Madrid, with 12 of those fouls being committed by a member of their back four.

Jonathan Tah and Dayot Upamecano both committed 2+ fouls each in the first leg of Bayern's clash against Real Madrid, struggling to handle the threat of Vinícius Jr and Mbappé. I can see the centre-back duo struggling a little again here with the rotations that PSG can put together, given how fluid their front three is. Dembélé doesn't just stay in central areas either – he swaps with Doué and Kvaratskhelia, so there will be times where Dembélé is facing up against Laimer (1.88 fouls committed per 90).

This selection landed via Super Sub when the sides met earlier in the campaign. Dembélé didn't really get a chance to test Bayern's backline as he went off injured after the first 25 minutes of that encounter. He should be able to have a proper run at Tah and Upamecano here – who combine to commit 3.48 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this term.