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8/9 EFL Trophy games involving AFC Wimbledon and Barnet last season saw over 2.5 goals.

That’d be 9/11 if you carried on into this season, with sides playing one game already, which saw Barnet beat Arsenal U21s 5-1 and Wimbledon lose on penalties, after a 1-1 draw, at Leyton Orient.

Barnet have seen the bet land in 6/7 league games this season as well, while Wimbledon are a lot less open in league action but tend to be more adventurous in this competition.

Wimbledon also likely need to win if they’re to qualify from the group, anything but a win gives them a lot to rely on going into the last game, and that nothing to lose scenario may work in our favour for this bet.

Donny saw over 2.5 goals in five of seven in the competition last season, with the bet landing in four of their five home games in that sample.

Liverpool U21s have seen over 5.5 goals in their last two games, which includes their EFL Trophy opener.

They beat Rochdale on penalties after a 3-3 draw at Spotland, in a mad encounter where they were 3-1 down with 10 men heading into the 94th minute and still managed to score twice to force the shoot-out.

Doncaster represent a significant step up in opposition compared to what they’re used to, which doesn’t bode well considering they haven’t kept a clean sheet this season, from five attempts, and they let in three goals in their last game in the competition.

Paul Warne is forced to take this game seriously, because MK Dons haven’t won outside of the EFL Trophy this season.

Warne has won the competition before, managing Rotherham, but will be using this game to get some confidence into his forward line ahead of hosting Reading on Saturday.

The fans may turn against him if they don’t get a positive result this weekend.

MK covered this bet on their own comfortably by beating Crawley 4-1 in their Trophy opener.

The visitors have seen over 2.5 goals in three of five this season, keeping a clean sheet just once.

Warne needs to build some positivity and Brentford U21s could be the low hanging fruit he needs to do that.

Peterborough begin life under Robbie Savage with a kind Trophy clash against Ipswich’s youngsters.

The visitors lost their competition opener 6-0 at Luton, and they’re yet to keep a clean sheet this season.

Ipswich U21s have let in 5-1-3-4-6 goals, and that includes a 3-0 defeat at Hornchurch in the National League Cup.

Posh aren’t going well in League One, dismissing Luke Williams just before the international break, but they’ve got much more attacking firepower than Hornchurch and will expect to score three or more goals, as they did in a 3-1 win over Colchester to begin their Trophy campaign.

The bet has landed in four of Sheffield Wednesday’s last six games in all competitions, including their Trophy opener - a 2-1 win at Salford City.

Over 2.5 goals was in after 39 minutes of Sunderland U21s’ Trophy opener at Accrington, drawing 3-3 and losing on penalties having conceded a 93rd minute equaliser.

Sheff Wed haven’t played since 22nd September, so this’ll be used to get some competitive minutes back in the legs ahead of a difficult trip to 3rd-placed Huddersfield on Saturday, which could open the door for Sunderland to contribute to the goal tally.

Sunderland U21s have conceded three or more goals in three of five competitive games this season, and this is against much stronger opposition than any of those encounters.

Stevenage are another unders team, who focus a lot on their defensive structure but let themselves go a bit in the EFL Trophy.

They saw over 2.5 goals in 4/4 Trophy games last season, and won their opener 6-1 this season at Walsall.

Coincidentally, Leicester also won their Trophy opener 6-1 this season, against Fulham U21s.

Russell Martin won’t change too much for this competition in terms of style of play, and it feels very unlikely that two teams that saw seven total goals in each of their openers, will see under three this time around.

While these two nations played out a 0-0 draw less than a fortnight ago, I'm prepared to look beyond that here by siding with over 1.5 goals.

The Scots passed up enough chances to cover that line single-handedly in the reverse fixture, registering an xG of 2.16 and winning the shot count 17-4.

Sebastien Pocognoli's side subsequently fell to a 3-0 defeat at home to Switzerland, but they delivered their most impressive performance under their new manager to date with a deserved 2-0 win over North Macedonia on Saturday.

Slovenia have also shown their attacking capabilities since that stalemate, beating North Macedonia 2-0 before giving Switzerland a game in a 2-1 away defeat on Saturday night.

That suggests the visitors could contribute to the scoring at Hampden.

Kieron Bowie was one of Scotland's standout performers against North Macedonia on Saturday night, and I'm keen to back the striker to register at least one shot on target.

Bowie opened the scoring in Skopje with a brilliant strike from distance.

Remarkably, that was one of 7 attempts from the striker, 4 of which worked the opposition goalkeeper.

He also made an impression when Scotland faced Slovenia on matchday one, coming off the bench to register a couple of on-target efforts.

Bowie looks to be playing with real confidence at the moment, and he should cause Slovenia's defence plenty of problems when the pair meet again at Hampden.

The striker also found the net for club side Sassuolo against Juventus last month, adding to the appeal of backing him to test Jan Oblak at least once here.

Stephen Welsh has caught the eye for Scotland during this Nations League campaign, and I'm backing the defender to be fouled at least once.

Welsh is extremely comfortable in possession, with his ball-carrying ability often taking him up the park into midfield areas.

As such, he has a knack for winning free-kicks.

That was evident against North Macedonia on Saturday night, when Welsh was brought down on 3 separate occasions.

He also earned Scotland a free-kick away to Slovenia a couple of weeks ago.

The case is strengthened by the fact that Welsh has drawn at least 1 foul in six of his eight Championship appearances for Swansea this season.

He is likely to come up against club teammate Zan Vipotnik, who committed 2 fouls and picked up a yellow card against Switzerland last time out.

John McGinn has been the very definition of a foul magnet across Scotland's opening three Nations League games.

The all-action midfielder was brought down on 6 occasions against Slovenia on matchday one before earning Scotland 5 free-kicks against Switzerland last Tuesday night.

McGinn not only got himself on the scoresheet against North Macedonia on Saturday, but he also drew a further 6 fouls during that contest.

Looking further back, he was fouled on multiple occasions in each of Scotland's three World Cup matches, while the same is true of four of his five Premier League appearances for Aston Villa this season.

He is likely to be closely watched by Slovenia's Sandi Lovric, who committed 2 fouls and picked up a yellow card against Scotland less than a fortnight ago.

The Scotland skipper has clearly been encouraged to get forward into advanced areas under Sebastien Pocognoli, evidenced by the 4 shots he fired off against North Macedonia on Saturday night.

Notably, Robertson also attempted 1 shot against Slovenia in the reverse fixture and another in Scotland's home defeat to Switzerland.

Robertson has also shown a willingness to try his luck for Tottenham this term, attempting 1 shot in two of his last four Premier League appearances.

Scotland racked up 17 shots in the reverse fixture and should be on the front foot again at Hampden, giving Robertson plenty of scope to let fly once more.

Gordon has been England’s best player during this extended international break, scoring in all three games against Croatia, Spain and Czechia when England came away 2-0 winners on the road last week.

Gordon has taken 10 shots across these games (4.07 per 90), impressively seeing seven of these efforts find the target (2.85 per 90). He’s playing with way more confidence since making the move to Barcelona, and that has come through in his international performances so far.

Gordon had four shots against Czechia last week, seeing two of these efforts find the target - matching the wider shot output he’s maintained in the Nations League. 

He also had more touches in the opposition box than any other player in that victory (11), further underlining the confidence Gordon is playing with at the moment.

I backed this angle in Czechia’s defeat to Spain last time out, with Radosta having one shot in that game from a set piece situation just after half time.

Radosta will line up on the right wing for Czechia and has a pretty consistent shot record. He’s had a shot in two of Czechia’s three Nations League games so far, also netting two goals across his nine starts domestically at the start of this season.

Radosta has had 11 shots across those nine starts (1.28 per 90), showing a consistency when it comes to taking aim for club and country. This is a nice price for the winger to have a single shot again here, Czechia will be limited to counter attacks but Radosta can still offer a shot threat as he showed against Spain last time out.

It’s fair to say that this Czechia side have a real disciplinary issue in the camp having collected a red card in each of their last two games against Spain and England.

Czechia picked up five yellow cards and one red card in their defeat to Spain last time out, committing 13 fouls in the contest. They saw Pavel Sulc sent off in the first half when they met England last week, and were fortunate to avoid a second caution having committed nine fouls.

England are usually quite good at drawing cards from their opponents due to how many players they have in the squad who are elite when it comes to winning fouls. Anderson, Lewis-Skelly, Saka, Gordon and Bellingham are all incredibly short to draw fouls here.

Czechia also collected 2+ cards in their defeat to Croatia in their opening game of the Nations League. It’s clear that frustration has crept into their game following a brutal start to the Nations League and that same frustration should see them collect at least 2+ cards here.

England have dominated both Czechia and Croatia in this group so far, only losing to the best nation in the world in their opening game as Spain emerged 3-2 winners at Wembley - which was a game England will feel as though they should have won, having had an opportunity to take a 3-1 lead from the penalty spot.

England produced their best ever performance under Thomas Tuchel last time out, coming away 7-0 winners against Croatia. They made Slaven Bilic’s side look like a team of the level of a Nations League C side with how easily England cut through their backline and that commanding victory should give them confidence to register a healthy victory here.

Czechia are quite comfortably the weakest side in this group having lost all three of their games against Croatia, Spain and the Three Lions. This selection would have landed in two of those games, with Czechia conceding an xG of 1.48 or higher in all three matches.

Spain are comfortably the best international side around at the moment and have scored 2+ goals in all three of their Nations League games, putting four goals past Croatia when these nations met last week.

Spain have avoided defeat across their last 21 matches. They scored 21 goals across six games during qualifying (3.5 per game), and also netted 13 goals across six games in their last Nations League campaign (2.16 per game), reaching the final on that occasion which they lost to Portugal on penalties.

Croatia look really messy at the back at the moment having conceded seven goals against England last time out. They allowed Spain to have seven shots on target when the sides met last week, totalling an xG of 1.81 to Croatia’s 0.47. 

Bilic watched his side give up an xG of 6.43 against England last time out, suggesting that they are very unlikely to keep Spain out in this clash.

Scotland were very unlucky not to beat Slovenia when these sides met last week, with that clash ending with a point for each nation in a 0-0 draw.

Scotland recorded their first ever win under Pocognoli last time out with a 2-0 victory over North Macedonia. They thoroughly deserved that victory having taken 25 shots and recorded an xG of 3.45 to Macedonia’s 0.38. They also limited the home side to just nine shots, none of which found the target.

They should have beaten Slovenia last week, with Scotland generating an xG of 2.16 from 17 shots in that 0-0 draw. They were particularly impressive in the second half of the game with Slovenia having to rely on Jan Oblak’s man of the match display to keep a clean sheet.

I think Scotland can get over the line this time around against a nation that they are clearly better than on paper. They should have more confidence from their win over North Macedonia to help them get over the line in this one. 

Scotland were very unlucky not to beat Slovenia when these sides met last week, with that clash ending with a point for each nation in a 0-0 draw.

Scotland recorded their first ever win under Pocognoli last time out with a 2-0 victory over North Macedonia. They thoroughly deserved that victory having taken 25 shots and recorded an xG of 3.45 to Macedonia’s 0.38. They also limited the home side to just nine shots, none of which found the target.

They should have beaten Slovenia last week, with Scotland generating an xG of 2.16 from 17 shots in that 0-0 draw. They were particularly impressive in the second half of the game with Slovenia having to rely on Jan Oblak’s man of the match display to keep a clean sheet.

I think Scotland can get over the line this time around against a nation that they are clearly better than on paper. They should have more confidence from their win over North Macedonia to help them get over the line in this one. 

Lewis Ferguson is perhaps better known for committing fouls, but he also wins his fair share of free-kicks.

The combative midfielder has been fouled 6 times across Scotland's opening three Nations League matches.

That includes twice against Slovenia in Ljubljana a couple of weeks ago, while he was brought down on 3 occasions against North Macedonia on Saturday night.

He was also fouled 10 times across Scotland's three World Cup matches, earning multiple free-kicks against both Haiti and Morocco.

It has been a similar story in Serie A this season, with Ferguson fouled 2+ times in two of his last three outings for Bologna.

He could find himself operating in similar areas to Sandi Lovric, who has committed 5 fouls across his three appearances for Slovenia in this Nations League campaign.

For the reasons touched on above, Sandi Lovric looks worth siding with to pick up a card against Scotland, especially if he's tasked with keeping Lewis Ferguson and John McGinn quiet.

The Slovenian midfielder committed 3 fouls against Switzerland on Saturday night, having already been penalised twice and booked in the reverse fixture with Scotland.

He also committed 3 fouls in June's friendly against Croatia, which strengthens the case for another couple of offences here.

McGinn should give him plenty to contend with, having drawn 17 fouls across Scotland's opening three Nations League matches.

As mentioned, Lewis Ferguson has also been winning his fair share of free-kicks, drawing 6 fouls across that same three-game stretch.

Kieron Bowie looks worth siding with to score or assist against Slovenia after delivering an impressive display for Scotland on Saturday night.

The striker capped his performance with his first Scotland goal against North Macedonia.

The powerful striker racked up 7 shots, including 4 on target, and was a threat throughout.

He also caused Slovenia problems off the bench in the reverse fixture, registering 2 on-target attempts during his brief run-out.

A likely starting role at Hampden should give him more time to influence proceedings, while his recent goal for Sassuolo against Juventus only adds to the appeal of siding with this selection.

I’d feel confident in backing any of England’s front four for a goal contribution here after their brilliant display against Croatia last time out in which Gordon, Kane, Bellingham and Saka all pitched in.

Saka had more touches than any other England player in the opposition box (11) in that 7-0 thrashing, also taking the joint most shots (5) which led to two goals for the Arsenal winger. He also completed four passes into the final third, and took two of England’s corners - offering solid supporting stats to his headline numbers.

Saka has started the season positively more widely too, netting three goals across five starts in the Premier League. He was impressive when given an opportunity in the World Cup too - registering six goal contributions across just three starts, netting a hat trick in the third placed playoff game against France.

Jiri Slama is set to line up at left back for Czechia here, giving him a really difficult assignment against Bukayo Saka and possibly Trent Alexander-Arnold.

I think it’s clear that England’s build up and approach play is much better down the right hand side of the pitch than it is down the left. This is the natural consequence of England trying to find the best option on the left hand side, while Saka has long been the first choice right winger.

Saka has won two fouls in the Nations League so far, which isn’t reflective of how good he is when it comes to winning fouls. He’s won 15 fouls across his five starts in the Premier League (3.23 per 90), also winning nine fouls across just 357 minutes of action during the World Cup (2.27 per 90). 

Slama has committed three fouls across his three Nations League games so far and could have been in line for a caution against Spain last time out had Yamal lasted the entire 90 minutes. He’s collected one yellow card across his four starts domestically this season.

Pavel Sulc looked really bright and acted as Czechia’s main threat in his brief cameo before being sent off against England last week.

Sulc managed two shots from just six touches in the 23 minutes he stayed on the pitch before being sent off, showing that he should be quite willing to get shots away here now that he’s served his suspension.

Sulc has started the season pretty well for Lyon too, registering three assists across just three starts for his club side. He’s found the target twice across these games, working out to an average of 0.70 shots on target per 90.

There aren’t many Czechia players that I think can cause England issues, but Sulc stands out as someone that could look to test the England keeper given how quickly he took a few efforts against the Three Lions last week. 

Furthermore, Sulc netted 11 goals across just 17 starts for Lyon in Ligue 1 last season - notably averaging 1.03 shots on target per 90.

9/9 EFL Trophy games involving AFC Wimbledon and Barnet last season saw both teams score.

They backed up that run in their opening game of the competition, so it’s 11/11 carrying over from last term.

Barnet have seen the bet land in 7/7 league games this season as well, while Wimbledon are a lot less open in league action but tend to be more adventurous in this competition.

Wimbledon also likely need to win if they’re to qualify from the group, anything but a win gives them a lot to rely on going into the last game, and that nothing to lose scenario may work in our favour for this bet.

Stevenage are another unders team, who focus a lot on their defensive structure but let themselves go a bit in the EFL Trophy.

They saw BTTS in 4/4 Trophy games last season, and won their opener 6-1 this season at Walsall.

Coincidentally, Leicester also won their Trophy opener 6-1 this season, against Fulham U21s, and they’ve also seen BTTS in 3/4 away from home in League One.

Russell Martin won’t change too much for this competition in terms of style of play, and it feels very unlikely that two teams that scored six each last time out in the Trophy will fail to score at least once each in their second outing.

Bromley have seen BTTS in both of their league away games since the opening weekend and should have enough to score away at Crawley, who currently sit rock bottom of League Two.

Bromley are without a clean sheet since the opening weekend of the league season as well, conceding in seven games consecutively, including a 1-0 defeat at home to Brentford U21s last time out.

Crawley have failed to keep a clean sheet in seven league games so far this season.

They played each other twice last season in the league, with Bromley being promoted as champions, both matches ended 3-1 to Bromley, and this bet landed in the first half on both occasions.

England have dominated their last two games in the Nations League, putting seven goals past Croatia last time out after beating Czechia as the away side last week - winning both games to nil.

England have barely been threatened in these games too, Czechia recorded an xG of just 0.32 from six shots. They did drop down to 10 men in the game, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that they would have struggled just as much with all 11 men on the pitch.

England then only allowed Croatia to have one shot on target against them last time out, with the majority of their xG (1.39) coming from an open goal that Kovacic somehow managed to miss (0.58).

England were so dominant at Wembley against a similar level of opponent during qualifying, winning all four games to nil and netting nine goals in the process against Albania, Serbia, Latvia and Andorra. 

The goals that Czechia netted against Croatia and Spain may be off putting, but the underlying numbers would suggest that Czechia were quite fortunate to even get on the scoresheet having managed just two shots on target and an xG lower than 1.0 in both matches.

Considering that England are as short as 1.11 to win here, and the handicap is available at 1.33 - backing Tuchel’s team to win without conceding looks a decent angle at a better price considering that it landed in all eight of England’s qualifying matches.