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Frosinone have scored eight goals in their last two games, beating Sassuolo 4-2 before drawing 4-4 with Atalanta.

They have the 3rd-best attack in Serie A after eight games, averaging 2.25 goals per game at home, with Antonio Raimondo in great form with seven goals.

The problem is their defence.

They're allowing an average of 19 shots per game, with an xGA of 1.92 per game.

Lecce have struggled this season, and their defence is a big part of the problem.

They're allowing six shots on target per game and have conceded in six of their eight matches so far.

However, they did beat Udinese 3-0 in their last away game and have managed at least 16 shots in each of their last three matches.

BTTS looks promising here, especially with both teams giving away so many chances.

But Frosinone have been the more consistent side and look the favourites to get the win.

Benfica have scored in every game this season and have the best attack in Portugal, averaging 2.8 goals per game.

They're averaging 19 shots per match, with Vangelis Pavlidis leading the way with nine goals in nine league games.

Gil Vicente are one of the few teams who've managed to cause Benfica some problems at the back, scoring against them and creating more than one big chance.

They've won their last two away games, including a 2-1 win over Braga, showing they can cause problems going forward.

However, they've struggled to keep clean sheets against stronger teams.

In their last game, for example, they conceded at home to Porto, giving away 12 shots.

Benfica should have enough quality to win this one, but BTTS landing in four of their last five games suggests another clean sheet won't be easy.

Vasco are coming off a big 3-2 comeback win over Corinthians, with 25 shots and two goals in the space of just two minutes.

They're averaging 20 shots per game at home, with an xG of 2.26, but they've also had their problems at the back.

They've conceded six goals in their last three games, including a 3-1 home defeat to Boca Juniors.

Things won't get any easier against Flamengo, who have the best attack in the league and have scored in their last 16 Brazilian Serie A games.

Flamengo have an xG of 1.77 and will have Pedro available, their top scorer with 16 goals.

They're averaging two goals per away game, although they've looked a bit shaky at the back themselves, especially after conceding twice against Atlético-MG.

Despite those defensive problems, Flamengo are top of the league and have been the more consistent side, while Vasco are still trying to find the right balance.

Franco Mastantuano has found some form at Fiorentina on loan from Real Madrid. 

The move to the Spanish capital was probably a year or so too early for him, but there’s no doubting his talent. He’s a really strong dribbler, and that makes him a good player to watch to win fouls. 

Mastantuano has won more fouls than any other Fiorentina player this term (18 - 2.65 per 90), and also leads the squad for dribbles attempted (5.30 per 90) and dribbles past opponents (2.36 per 90).

He’s been fouled at least once in seven of his eight matches this term, drawing multiple fouls in six of these games - including being fouled 3+ times in four matches.

He started 11 games for Real Madrid in LaLiga last season, drawing 30 fouls across these matches (2.60 per 90). He also maintained promising dribble numbers that season (4.68 per 90), ranking in the 75th percentile for fouls won when compared to other wingers in the division.

Antonio Raimondo is Frosinone's top scorer in Serie A, with seven goals in eight games, including five at home.

The striker is averaging 3.5 shots and 1.37 shots on target per 90 minutes.

At home, those numbers go up to 4.3 shots and two shots on target per game.

Frosinone have one of the best attacks in the league, scoring 17 goals in eight games and averaging 18 shots per match.

Lecce, meanwhile, have conceded 14 goals this season, including nine in their last five games.

Lecce will also be without Gaspar in defence, while Tiago Gabriel is a doubt for this game.

Things are looking good for Raimondo, who's been even better at home and is now facing a team that gives away an average of six shots on target per game.

I feel like both sides are quite evenly matched here and will both be fielding strong lineups, with both seeing an opportunity to go deep in this tournament. 

Newcastle have been very entertaining to watch this season, seeing both teams score in six of their 10 games this season (all comps). They have managed to score in every one of their away games this season too, which bodes well for this bet.

Everton, on the other hand, have scored at least once in four of their five home games (all comps) this season.

Newcastle’s defensive record isn’t bulletproof, they are averaging 1.8 goals conceded per game this season, which is in the bottom five of the Premier League on that metric.

This fixture saw both teams score in each meeting last season, so I can see this tie having a similar outcome.

I feel this price is big on Armstrong tonight. 

He has committed the most fouls in the Everton squad this season, averaging 1.29 per 90.

If you look at his duels per match he averages 8.49 per 90, winning just 3.99 of those, which explains why he has committed at least one foul in seven of his nine appearances this season.

His opponents are striking too.

Likely up against one of Yoane Wissa or Joe Willock in the Newcastle attack, who are both in their top four players for winning fouls this season.

If you look at Wissa first, he’s a magnet for duels.

He is averaging 6.66 duels won per 90 this season, whilst winning 1.88 fouls to the same measure.

With Willock, he is averaging 1.13 successful dribbles in Newcastle’s midfield, and 1.69 fouls won per 90. 

These opponents give me plenty of reasons for liking Armstrong fouls, I think he’ll have his hands full tonight.

This feels like another bit of value, for George to be fouled just once or more.

He is currently averaging 0.98 fouls won per 90 in the league, which is solid, however, it’s his potential opponent that really draws me to this selection.

Predominantly deployed on the left wing, George will likely be up against Amar Dedic tonight, who has committed the 3rd-most fouls across the Newcastle side this season, averaging 1.21 fouls committed per 90.

What’s more, is that he’s priced at just 1.16 to commit a foul tonight, there’s a good chance it’s on George if he does.

George is a pacey, direct winger and is a handful for defenders.

He averages 2.34 successful dribbles per 90, but also likes to get stuck in.

He averages 4.39 duels won per 90, and when you compare that to Dedic’s 4.62, as well as 1.61 tackles, it looks like we could see a battle on this wing tonight.

Thierno Barry has surprised me this season, and has stepped up for Everton, especially now that he is their sole striker.

He ranks highest in their squad for shots on target (1.84 per 90), as well as shots (3.55 per 90).

He’s had a shot on target in nine of his 10 appearances for Everton this season, and still had four shots in the game where he failed to hit the target, so he is giving himself plenty of opportunities in each game to land one.

Newcastle’s opponents average 5.13 shots on target per league game and only five teams have allowed more touches in their own box this season.

Both stats work nicely in Barry’s favour, with the Everton striker averaging 5.39 touches in the opposition box per 90.

With Newcastle giving up chances and Barry regularly getting into promising positions, I think he will find the target tonight.

Viery joined Fiorentina this season and has been giving away an average of two fouls per 90 minutes, one of the highest averages in the squad.

He's already picked up two yellow cards despite not playing that many minutes, having only completed two full games this season.

This isn't anything new for him either.

Back at Grêmio, he picked up four yellow cards in 13 Brazilian league games.

The bad news for Viery is that Federico La Penna will be the referee.

He averaged 4.3 cards and 27.6 fouls per game last season.

Viery will also have to deal with Nikola Krstovic, who gets fouled almost twice per 90 minutes and was fouled three times in his last game against Frosinone.

With a referee who isn't afraid to show cards and both of Viery's yellow cards coming from fouls on opposition attackers, the Brazilian looks like a good candidate for a booking here.

Alan Franco has been booked in three of his five games against Cruzeiro in 2026, and there's already a bit of bad blood between him and some of their players.

The midfielder has also picked up six yellow cards in the Brazilian league, averaging 1.5 fouls per game.

He's committed at least one foul in 86% of his league appearances.

Cruzeiro have plenty of players who draw fouls in midfield, especially Matheus Pereira, who's been fouled 101 times in 29 games, an average of almost 3.5 per match.

Raphael Claus will referee the derby, and he's averaging 3.9 yellow cards per game in the Brazilian league. 

He also refereed their last meeting in September, when seven yellow cards and a red were shown.

Franco's recent disciplinary record is another big reason to fancy him for a card here.

He's picked up two yellow cards and a red in his last four games across all competitions.

Roma are one of only three sides in Serie A who are yet to lose a game, winning six of their nine matches and scoring the second most goals of any side (23), behind league leaders Inter (25).

Udinese are one of only three sides in the Italian top flight who are yet to win a game at home, losing four of their five matches in front of their own fans. 

The main concern for Udinese is that they’ve only managed to score two goals across these games - the joint lowest of any side at home in Serie A this term. 

Roma have won two and drawn two of their four away assignments in Serie A, with those draws coming against Napoli and Como. They’ve scored nine goals across these games as well, which is a scoring power that Udinese simply can’t match.

Udinese have lost six of their last seven matches ahead of this clash, only claiming a point against a Parma side who are struggling towards the bottom of the table as well in a 0-0 draw.

Betis have been really impressive at home in LaLiga this season, winning four of their five matches in front of their own fans.

The only side to beat them at home domestically this season has been Barcelona, who simply outscored Manuel Pellegrini’s side, and Betis still did well to score twice despite dropping down to 10 men in the second half of that clash.

Malaga have really struggled on their return to the Spanish top flight, failing to win any of their 10 matches and sitting rock bottom of the table. They’ve conceded 19 goals across these games, only three sides in the division have a weaker backline than the away side here.

Malaga’s firepower on the road is particularly alarming. They’ve only scored twice across five away matches, leaving them vulnerable against sides like Betis. They’ve struggled against the more established side in LaLiga, losing to nil against both Madrid sides and conceding five to Real Sociedad a few weeks ago.

Betis have been really impressive at home in LaLiga this season, winning four of their five matches in front of their own fans.

The only side to beat them at home domestically this season has been Barcelona, who simply outscored Manuel Pellegrini’s side, and Betis still did well to score twice despite dropping down to 10 men in the second half of that clash.

Malaga have really struggled on their return to the Spanish top flight, failing to win any of their 10 matches and sitting rock bottom of the table. They’ve conceded 19 goals across these games, only three sides in the division have a weaker backline than the away side here.

Malaga’s firepower on the road is particularly alarming. They’ve only scored twice across five away matches, leaving them vulnerable against sides like Betis. They’ve struggled against the more established side in LaLiga, losing to nil against both Madrid sides and conceding five to Real Sociedad a few weeks ago.

These sides have met twice already this year with BTTS landing in both matches as Stuttgart came away 3-1 and 4-1 winners.

Leverkusen may get a bit more joy here given that Stuttgart have only managed to win two of their opening seven Bundesliga matches, but their games have still been seeing plenty of goals with 23 in total so far (3.29 per game).

Neither of these sides have been good at keeping clean sheets in the early stages of the Bundesliga season. Stuttgart have kept just one shutout across their seven games, conceding an xG of 17.5 - which is the second highest xG against in the Bundesliga behind Augsburg (19.6).

Stuttgart’s early season slump is not that alarming to me, especially when considering that they’re competing in the Champions League this season - which will have had an effect on their domestic performances.

They still have the firepower to get on the scoresheet against this Leverkusen side, who have only kept out two sides in the Bundesliga this term.

There was a real sour taste when O’Hare left Sheffield United for Wrexham, with fans labelling it a sideways move and one that was solely about money.

I expect O’Hare will get a rather cold reception and could be targeted more so than usual.

His numbers for drawing fouls are excellent anyway, he draws an average of 2.08 per 90 minutes and he’s been fouled two or more times in three of his last four.

He’ll be up against Kalvin Phillips who ranks high for fouls in The Blades’ squad. The ex-England international commits 1.69 per 90 minutes.

This is a nice addition to the bet builder at around 1.33. Burrows’ numbers are very strong.

The left-back has drawn an average of 1.61 fouls per 90 minutes. He’s only recently returned from a long injury lay-off, but across his three starts he’s drawn five fouls, with at least one drawn in each match.

Issa Kabore will be his direct opponent down that flank, he has committed an average of 1.15 fouls per 90 minutes.

Burrows has a wonderful left-foot and likes to get forward, he can be a real danger and Wrexham will need to shut him down.

Veteran striker Patrick Bamford is on to five goals for the season and netted at the weekend as The Blades drew with Derby County.

He netted a brace in his last home game prior to that too when they beat Lincoln City 3-0.

He’s averaged 0.80 shots on target per 90 minutes and has had a shot on target in seven of his 11 Championship starts.

Wrexham have conceded an average of 4.08 shots on target per 90 minutes and I think Sheffield United can really get at them here, which leads me on to the final pick of the bet builder.

This isn’t the most exciting game for a Friday night. Maybe it looked set to be when it was scheduled but both sides have been lacklustre.

That being said, I’m especially unimpressed with Wrexham. It’s surely getting to a point where they part ways with Parkinson. They’ve spent a lot and there’s little cohesion in the squad.

They’ve won just one of their last seven matches on the road and have slumped down to 14th place following defeat to Blackburn on Saturday.

They’ve averaged 1.31 xG in away matches and scored an average of just 0.83 goals from that.

The Blades haven’t been spectacular but this selection has landed more often than not at home, with the hosts avoiding defeat in six of their eight matches.

Elversberg have adapted to the Bundesliga really well as a newly promoted side, only losing three of their opening seven matches and netting 12 goals across these games.

They’ve won two of their three home matches, with only Bayern beating them in front of their own fans so far. 

Those three games have produced 15 goals (5.0 per game), with their most recent home game in the Bundesliga seeing seven goals as they beat Augsburg 4-3.

Elversberg have only managed to keep one clean sheet across their seven games in the Bundesliga, despite the wider success they’ve seen in the early stages of the season.  

Mainz interestingly boast the strongest away record of any side in the Bundesliga, winning all three of their matches and netting 10 goals in the process. 

However, they’ve only kept one shutout across their last six matches - which is a record that will encourage the home side as they look to pick up more crucial points to boost their hopes of survival.

Casa Pia have really struggled at home in the early stages of the season, losing all four of their matches in front of their own fans and conceding 13 goals in the process.

It’s not like they’ve been offering an attacking threat in these games either, scoring just once at home - which is unsurprisingly the lowest tally of any side at home in Liga Portugal this term.

Sporting have only lost one of their opening nine games in Liga Portugal this term. I like to see the Portuguese top flight as the big three (Porto, Benfica and Sporting) being in a mini league with there being a massive drop off to the other sides in the division.

Sporting have scored 10 goals across their four away games in Liga Portugal this term, avoiding defeat across these matches. They’ve scored twice on each of their last five trips to Casa Pia, and the record of the home side so far this season would suggest that this should be quite routine.

Both teams have scored in Nice's last four games, with Nice conceding in seven of their eight Ligue 1 matches so far.

Their attack has been looking sharp too, scoring in their last three home games, including a 2–1 win over Lille, who have the joint-best defence in the league alongside Lorient.

Rennes, meanwhile, have the joint-best attack in the league alongside Marseille, scoring 18 goals in eight games. They're averaging 16 shots and 1.96 xG per match.

Their defence has been a different story, though. Rennes have one of the worst xGA records in the league, averaging 1.90 per game, and are giving away 5.6 shots on target per match.

BTTS looks even more promising when you look at Rennes' away record. They've conceded nine goals in just three games, including four against Lyon and another four against Paris FC.

Bodø/Glimt and Viking have been the two best attacking teams in Norway this season, both averaging more than two goals per game after 24 matches.

Bodø/Glimt have been particularly dangerous at home, averaging 22 shots, more than eight shots on target and almost 3 xG per game.

Even though they've got the best defensive record in the league, they've conceded in their last four home games, including against Rosenborg, Sandefjord and Kristiansund.

Viking, meanwhile, have scored in 11 of their 12 away games and have the league's top scorer, Peter Christiansen, with 15 goals. Zlatko Tripić has also chipped in with 19 assists.

The visitors are also in great form, scoring 19 goals in their last five league games.

With the top two teams fighting for the title and both attacks looking dangerous, there's a good chance we'll see goals at both ends.

Elversberg have adapted to the Bundesliga really well as a newly promoted side, only losing three of their opening seven matches and netting 12 goals across these games.

They’ve won two of their three home matches, with only Bayern beating them in front of their own fans so far. 

Those three games have produced 15 goals (5.0 per game), with their most recent home game in the Bundesliga seeing seven goals as they beat Augsburg 4-3.

Elversberg have only managed to keep one clean sheet across their seven games in the Bundesliga, despite the wider success they’ve seen in the early stages of the season.  

Mainz interestingly boast the strongest away record of any side in the Bundesliga, winning all three of their matches and netting 10 goals in the process. 

However, they’ve only kept one shutout across their last six matches - which is a record that will encourage the home side as they look to pick up more crucial points to boost their hopes of survival.

The Potters have impressed recently and rank second in the five-game form table in the Championship. Only Middlesbrough have taken more points than Stoke in that period.

In-fact, ‘Boro are also the only side to take three points from The Bet 365 stadium this season, in a 3-2 win. Aside from that, Stoke have won three and drawn one.

They also dismantled Charlton here in a 4-0 win, creating 1.84 xG and racking up eight shots on target.

Preston are in dire form and average 1.74 xGA, one of the worst defences in the league.

They’ve won just one game all season and are winless on the road, losing five of six and conceding 15 times.

Galbraith has emerged as a key creative force for Stoke and currently leads the goal scoring charts for them and also chipped in with three assists, getting back towards the kind of output we saw during his time at Leyton Orient.

He’s also been good at winning fouls. Galbraith has drawn an average of 1.17 fouls per 90 minutes and his 14 fouls drawn is the second highest in the squad.

In midfield, he’ll come up against Leo Leroy, who has averaged 1.40 fouls per 90 minutes and has already been carded four times.

Preston have averaged 12 fouls per match.

The Preston centre-half has an impressive record when it comes to winning fouls. His 12 drawn this season is the second-highest in the PNE squad and he’s averaged 1.20 fouls drawn per 90 minutes.

He was fouled twice against West Brom last week and has been fouled at least once in eight out of ten matches this season.

The predicted front three for Stoke of McGlynn, Devenny and Cisse average 2.89 fouls per 90 combined.

Stoke also average 12 fouls per match and I’m expecting this to be a physical affair with both sides playing plenty of direct football.

Soumare’s 15 fouls sits him second in the rankings for Stoke, behind Ethan Galbraith who he partners with in midfield.

Soumare has averaged 1.50 fouls per 90 minutes. He’s fouled in eight of his 11 Championship starts and in six of his last seven appearances. He committed two fouls last week and was booked. 

The aforementioned Leo Leroy, although a heavy tackler himself, he actually draws a few fouls and has been impeded an average of 1.20 times per 90 minutes this season.

Alfie Devine draws 0.66 per 90 too and is a real creative outlet in a poor side, he’ll need closely marshalled.

Morgan Rogers scored from the penalty spot in Chelsea’s EFL Cup clash against Liverpool during the week, and was the most dangerous player on the pitch for the away side.

Rogers had two shots on target in that clash, taking six shots overall. He’s been really confident since arriving at Chelsea, and has had a shot on target in five of his eight starts in the Premier League.

What really stands out to me about Rogers’ game this season is his shot volume. He’s had at least one shot in every Premier League game, taking multiple shots in seven of these matches - evening reaching 3+ shots on four occasions.

Only Cole Palmer (25) has had more shots in the Premier League for Chelsea than Rogers (20), and with Joao Pedro set to be sidelined here - both should be even more important to Chelsea’s chances of success.

Bryan Mbeumo leads the Man Utd squad for shots, shots on target and goals in the Premier League this season and has had a shot on target in every Premier League game so far - managing multiple shots on target in three of these games.

Benjamin Sesko is still sidelined, and isn’t expected to return to action until January - so we can expect Bryan Mbeumo to play as Man Utd’s main striker until then. Mbeumo has been one of the most consistent finishers in the Premier League over the last few seasons, so it’s no surprise that Carrick sees him as a number nine in Sesko’s absence.

Man Utd are averaging 5.00 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, only three sides in the division have found the target more often than Carrick’s side despite their poor form over recent weeks. They’ve also taken more shots than any other side (19.38 per game), so there should be plenty of service for Man Utd’s top scorer.

I think Man Utd have missed the presence of Amad Diallo in the early parts of the season, with the winger only recently coming back into the side after injury.

Amad has been fouled twice in each of his last two Premier League appearances against Bournemouth and Leeds. Only two Man Utd players won more fouls than Amad in the Premier League last season, who averaged 1.46 fouls won per 90 across his 32 appearances.

Amad didn’t start in this fixture last season, only coming on for the final 10 minutes, but did play the full 90 against Chelsea when the sides met at Old Trafford - drawing two fouls on that occasion with Chelsea committing 14 fouls in total. 

Mike Penders redeemed himself after a shaky display against Tottenham last week, making three crucial saves as Chelsea faced Liverpool in the EFL Cup.

He saved a penalty in the shootout too, and didn’t look too affected by the mistake he made against Tottenham last week - punching the ball into his own net. 

Prior to his injury, Martinez was forced into making 25 saves across just six starts in the Premier League (4.29 per 90). That is clearly a keeper that is being overworked, and isn’t being offered much protection by the defensive structure in front of him.

Every side will be eager to test Penders, he’s not that experienced at this level - and that mistake he made against Tottenham will only encourage opposition sides to test the young keeper with more speculative efforts.

Penders made three saves in Chelsea’s 2-0 defeat to Tottenham last time out, and now has the task of keeping out a Man Utd side who have had more shots than any other side in the Premier League this season, as well as the third most shots on target.

Only Callum O’Hare (22) and Kieffer Moore (29) have had more shots for Wrexham this season than Callum Doyle (14 - 1.27 per 90).

This shot record links directly to Doyle’s role as a left centre back in Wrexham’s 3-4-3 shape. If you look at his heat map, Doyle pushes on quite often into advanced areas from this position and has even had 19 touches in the opposition box (1.73 per 90).

Doyle has had a shot in seven of his eleven appearances for Wrexham this season, taking four shots against Blackburn last time out - which only highlights just how often he pushes forward.

One of these shots was from a free kick as well, which is the second time this season he has had a shot from that situation.

Doyle had a shot in both head to head meetings with Sheffield United last season, managing three shots when Wrexham welcomed the Blades at home.

Nicolas Jackson put in his best performance in a Villa shirt so far against Man City last week, scoring twice from three shots to secure the three points for Unai Emery’s side.

I’m not surprised that Jackson is improving under Emery, the Villa boss has a track record of improving the movement and finishing of strikers with a good example being the development of Ollie Watkins under Emery.

Jackson has had more shots on target than any other Aston Villa player in the Premier League this season (7 - 1.14 per 90). 

He’s had a shot on target in each of his last four Premier League starts, managing multiple efforts on target in three of these games.

I’m not convinced at all by the direction that this Fulham side have taken under Arbeloa. They’re conceding 14.00 shots per game, and could struggle to handle the threat of Jackson who will be full of confidence following his brace last week.

Josh King is quite clearly Fulham’s most influential player, and has added end product to his game this season - taking more shots (21) and having more shots on target (10) than any other Fulham player.

King has had 2+ shots in seven of his eight Premier League appearances this term, taking 3+ shots in five of these games - including each of his last two. 

King has found the target in six of his eight Premier League appearances this season, and will be able to cause Villa issues with his clever movement. His teammates trust him more too, with King averaging 53.4 touches per 90 compared to 41.5 touches per 90 in the Premier League last season.

Unai Emery has assembled one of the most aggressive and hard working midfield duos with Kamara and Joao Gomes being the perfect players for his system.

Both have got through a lot of defensive work so far this season, but Kamara has been the standout for fouls - committing more fouls than any other Villa player across his eight appearances (18 - 2.27 per 90).

Kamara is also averaging 10.3 defensive contributions per 90 and contesting 12.48 duels per 90, so he’s constantly in battles where he can give away fouls. He’s committed a foul in seven of his eight Premier League appearances, committing multiple fouls in five of these games.

I’m interested in his battle with Josh King here. King is Fulham’s best player and will require quite a bit of attention from Villa’s midfield duo. Only one Fulham player has won more fouls than King in the Premier League this season (12 - 1.63 per 90).

I think this could be a case of one manager really outclassing the other.

Unai Emery saw his side start the season really slowly (again), but they’ve settled into a really nice rhythm and I wouldn’t be put off by their defeat to Bournemouth in the EFL Cup during the week.

Villa rotated quite a bit, and Bournemouth still needed a man of the match performance from Di Gregorio to keep them out.

Fulham have not impressed me at all this season, six of the eight points they’ve earned have come from wins against Coventry and Hull - both 1-0 victories where Fulham looked far from comfortable.

They’ve only managed to win one of their four away assignments in the Premier League, notably losing to both Sunderland and Ipswich on the road. 

We need Villa to score twice here, which is something they’ve managed in seven of their last ten matches.