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The opportunity to back Conor Gallagher to be fouled twice or more at an odds-against price is not one I’m turning down given his tendency to draw the referee’s attention.

He should find duels with Caleb Yirenkyi in this encounter, the Ghanaian has committed 2.35 fouls per 90 this season, and Matt Grimes and Jack Rudoni are likely to operate in similar areas - averaging 0.85 and 1.17 fouls per 90 respectively.

As a trio, that Gallagher should come into contact with, they’ve fouled 4.37 times per 90 minutes.

Gallagher was fouled twice against Man Utd last time out, and James Maddison won a foul after replacing him in the 74th minute - so the 3+ line came in as well.

Gallagher was booked after four minutes last time out, but that didn’t deter his involvement, and, though it’s data from different circumstances, his fouls won data from previous Premier League seasons stacks up really well when we’re looking at an odds-against price.

In his first four full seasons in the league his fouls won per 90 was 2.24, then 2.09, then 1.94 and 1.84.

Last season at Spurs he won 1.74 fouls per 90, and from a smaller sample he’s at 3.47 fouls won per 90 this term.

Some bookies are as short as 1.40 on this exact bet for a reason.

Rayo Vallecano have scored and conceded in all seven of their La Liga games this season.

Their away record is pretty worrying, with an average of three goals conceded and 18 shots faced per game.

To be fair, they've played Real Madrid and Barcelona away from home, but they couldn't even keep a clean sheet against Osasuna or Racing.

Getafe are a completely different team when they play at home.

They've scored just four goals in eight league games, but all four have come at the Coliseum.

They haven't lost any of their four home games and are averaging 14 shots per match.

With Rayo conceding in every game but still scoring against teams like Real Madrid and Barcelona, there's a good chance we'll see BTTS here.

Trabzonspor have scored 11 goals in three home games, including four against Galatasaray.

They're averaging 16.33 shots per game at home, but they've also allowed 12 shots in each of those matches.

And then there's Salah, who's the league's top scorer with seven goals and has also provided three assists.

Beşiktaş are in great form too, having scored at least twice in their last five games, including a 3–2 away win against Hoffenheim in the Europa League.

Games between these two tend to be pretty open, with both teams scoring in their last five meetings.

And with the league's two highest-scoring attacks facing each other this Monday, both averaging 2.29 goals per game, it wouldn't be a surprise to see plenty of goals.

Monza have scored in every game this season, even away to Inter and Lazio.

The problem is that they've also conceded in every match, letting in at least three goals in four of their six games.

Gustavo Varela is their top scorer and is expected to start. He's scored four goals so far, three of them at home.

Cagliari have Daniel Maldini, though, who's scored four of their six goals this season.

They've got one of the best defensive records in Serie A, but they're still facing almost 21 shots per game.

Looking at those numbers, and with both teams' top scorers expected to play, there's a good chance we'll see BTTS in this one too.

I was a bit surprised to see Monza as favourites for this game.

They’ve only managed to win one of their six games in Serie A this season, and are facing a Cagliari side who have won all three of their away games, conceding just once.

There is a small caveat though, Cagliari are dealing with some injuries and head coach, Fabio Pisacene, will not be on the touchline as he serves a suspension.

That said, I’m still confident in backing Cagliari to get on the scoresheet. Monza have conceded four goals across their two home games this term and their recent form is also troubling - winning just one of their last five games and failing to keep a clean sheet in any of them. 

This is a massive meeting between two well matched sides in the Super Lig with the early signs being that both of these teams will be in the race for a Champions League spot, if not the title.

Trabzonspor have won all three of their home games in the Super Lig this term by an aggregate scoreline of 11-1. 

No side has conceded fewer goals at home than Trabzonspor in the Super Lig this term, with this also being the base of their overall success - conceding just five goals across seven matches.

Nearly 70% of the total goals that Trabzonspor have scored in the Super Lig this season have been in front of their own fans. 

They also come into this game with a decent run of form, winning each of their last three matches with two of these victories coming to nil.

One of those results was a 4-0 thumping of Galatasaray at home with the home side limiting the reigning champions to an xG of 0.96 while their seven efforts totalled 2.20 xG. 

Besiktas have only managed to win one of their three away games so far this season, scoring just four goals across these matches. They have failed to beat Trabzonspor as the away side in each of the last five head to head clashes. 

I was really impressed with Sidiki Cherif on his Premier League debut, and backed him to have a shot on target against Newcastle at evens on his Premier League debut.

He had three shots overall in that game, seeing two of those efforts find the target. He was such a handful away from the shots as well, winning a penalty as well as having five touches in the opposition box.

Coventry will be limited to attacks in transition here, but the good news for Frank Lampard’s side is that they face a Tottenham side who struggle with turnovers - often being punished as a result of their centre backs being out of position when the ball is turned over.

Sherif was signed from Fenerbahce over the summer, he hasn’t got a massive sample size at any club as he’s only 19 - but did score two goals across his seven starts for the Super Lig club last season, registering nine efforts on target (1.26 per 90).

This is an angle that I’ve come back to throughout the season so far with Van Hecke’s natural ability to win fouls pairing up well with the style of play that De Zerbi demands of Tottenham.

Van Hecke sees more of the ball than nearly any other Tottenham player. He averages 91.7 touches per 90, as well as 70.8 successful passes per 90. 

The key with Van Hecke, is that 20.8 of these passes are line breaking passes - the highest average of any player in the Premier League. He also maintained an average of 1.21 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League last season, showing a consistency with this part of his game.

This makes Van Hecke a target, as he is basically the source of Tottenham’s initial build up play - which actually has been quite good, it’s the second part where they have struggled.

Van Hecke has won six fouls across his six starts in the Premier League this season (1.00 per 90), and is lining up against a Coventry side who are averaging 10.5 fouls committed per game in the Premier League this season.

Bobby Thomas has been an important figure at the back for Coventry in the early weeks of the season, and has shown a decent knack for winning fouls - drawing at least one in four of his last five matches.

I’m keen to back Thomas to be fouled again here due to his expected clash with Solanke, who has committed four fouls across his three starts in the Premier League this season (1.37 per 90). 

Solanke regularly gets into a battle with the opposition centre backs, with Thomas likely to be his direct opponent as the central centre back in Coventry’s back three. Solanke also averaged 1.08 fouls committed per 90 across 11 starts in the Premier League last season.

Thomas has won multiple fouls in two of his last five matches as well, so there’s even the opportunity to test slightly higher lines with the Coventry centre back - who maintained an average of 0.77 fouls won per 90 in the Championship last season.

I think it’s fair to say that Tottenham will probably have to go in for a new keeper at some point over the next few transfer windows, Vicario left during the summer after a steady decline in performances and Kinsky hasn’t been much better so far this season.

He has, however, been called into action 15 times across his six starts in the Premier League this campaign (2.50 per 90), with Tottenham’s wider defensive structure and tactical outlook seeing the keeper face 25 shots and an xGOT of 7.25.

Kinsky has had to make 3+ saves in each of Tottenham’s last three Premier League matches, which included a man of the match performance against Everton at home which was a game that saw him keep one his two clean sheets so far this season.

Salah is Trabzonspor's top scorer, and there's no denying how important he is to the team.

He's scored seven goals and provided three assists in the league, meaning he's been involved in 10 of the team's 16 goals.

He's been even better at home, scoring in all three games so far, including a hat-trick against Galatasaray.

Trabzonspor are averaging 16 shots per game at home, and Salah leads the team in attempts.

Almost 70% of the total goals that Trabzonspor have scored in the Super Lig this term, have come in front of their own fans.

Beşiktaş are a tough opponent, but they've conceded in all three of their Süper Lig away games. And with Salah in such great form, he could make the difference again.

Pathé Ciss is always worth keeping an eye on for a yellow card when Rayo Vallecano play.

He's been Rayo's most booked player over the last two seasons, picking up over 20 yellows, and he's already got four in La Liga this season.

And here's the interesting part: two of those four yellows weren't even for fouls. They came from arguing with opponents or referees.

Ciss is likely to come up against two of Getafe's most fouled players in midfield.

Ramón Terrats has been fouled four times in his last three games, while Mario Martín is getting fouled more than twice a game in La Liga.

With Ciss picking up so many cards and facing players who get fouled regularly, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him booked again.

You won’t get this price on Gallagher very often, he’s usually as short as 3.0 for a caution so this is a very appealing price.

Gallagher is one of the most chaotic players in the Premier League, committing four fouls across his three starts in the top flight so far (1.73 per 90) - collecting two yellow cards already.

Gallagher has already matched his card tally from last season, despite making 11 fewer starts. I’m particularly interested in his duel with Yirenki here, who was fouled twice against Newcastle last time out.

Powder Monkey is Racing Ratings' NAP of the day, with a perfect 10.0/10 rating.

The algorithm's highest rated horse of the day won four days in a row last week, from Wednesday to Saturday.

He is the clear favourite coming into this one, with two wins in his last three races, finishing in the top three in all of those.

Powder Monkey is a previous course and distance winner who specialises on the all-weather surface.

He runs for an in-form stable, George Boughey, with his chances further bolstered by the booking of high profile jockey Oisin Murphy.

Lady Henshaw is Racing Ratings' joint-2nd favourite horse of the day with a 9.6/10.

She is the joint-favourite for the 18:30, at the time of writing, but has shortened in odds of late.

Lady Henshaw is one of two horses in the race to have won last time out, the other is 8/1 shot Bahia Bonita.

She is a previous course and distance winner, who has shown promise on the all-weather albeit from a small sample.

This trip looks ideal, running this distance previously has seen her secure 1st and 2nd-placed finishes already in just a three-race career to date.

Powder Monkey is Racing Ratings' NAP of the day, with a perfect 10.0/10 rating.

The algorithm's highest rated horse of the day won four days in a row last week, from Wednesday to Saturday.

He is the clear favourite coming into this one, with two wins in his last three races, finishing in the top three in all of those.

Powder Monkey is a previous course and distance winner who specialises on the all-weather surface.

He runs for an in-form stable, George Boughey, with his chances further bolstered by the booking of high profile jockey Oisin Murphy.

Lady Henshaw is Racing Ratings' joint-2nd favourite horse of the day with a 9.6/10.

She is the joint-favourite for the 18:30, at the time of writing, but has shortened in odds of late.

Lady Henshaw is one of two horses in the race to have won last time out, the other is 8/1 shot Bahia Bonita.

She is a previous course and distance winner, who has shown promise on the all-weather albeit from a small sample.

This trip looks ideal, running this distance previously has seen her secure 1st and 2nd-placed finishes already in just a three-race career to date.

A Lott Of Kane is Racing Ratings' joint-2nd favourite of the day with a 9.6/10.

He's the clear favourite for the 18:45, at the time of writing, and has shortened in odds of late, from 5.50-4.00-3.75.

A Lott Of Kane has won three of his last four races coming into this, including his very last outing.

3rd-favourite Macarone has won three in a row, and Thanks Dad (33/1) won his third-to-last race, aside from that no other horse in the race has a victory in their last five - and it's a 13-runner field.

A Lott Of Kane is a double course and winner, capable of justifying favouritism this evening.

Sheik Yerbouti is Racing Ratings' joint-3rd favourite today with a 9.0/10 rating.

He has finished in the top three in two of four career races on today's ground.

Sheik Yerbouti's win last time out came over course and distance, less than three weeks ago.

Three of his last four races have come at Wolverhampton, making the top three on two of those occasions.

He's finished 3rd above this level before and prowess at the track should stand him in good stead to compete at the front.

Powder Monkey is Racing Ratings' NAP of the day, with a perfect 10.0/10 rating.

The algorithm's highest rated horse of the day won four days in a row last week, from Wednesday to Saturday.

He is the clear favourite coming into this one, with two wins in his last three races, finishing in the top three in all of those.

Powder Monkey is a previous course and distance winner who specialises on the all-weather surface.

He runs for an in-form stable, George Boughey, with his chances further bolstered by the booking of high profile jockey Oisin Murphy.

Jack Rudoni scored from the penalty spot against Newcastle last Monday to earn his first ever Premier League goal, and get Coventry on their way to securing their second win of the campaign after beating Forest on the road before the international break.

Rudoni is certainly capable of playing at this level, and I really like the way he arrives in the box for this selection. He’s being coached by a man who was better at this than possibly any other player in Premier League history, so Rudoni’s late runs into the box could be a real asset for Coventry this season.

Rudoni has taken seven shots in the Premier League across his five starts (1.64 per 90), seeing four of these efforts find the target (0.94 per 90). He’ll be confident after converting the penalty last week, with that duty also aiding this selection if Coventry do win a spot kick.

I think Tottenham have really missed the energy and tenacity of Kudus over the last year or so. Injuries have stalled his Tottenham career, but he’s slowly getting back to full fitness and is a really tough player to stop when he gets going.

|Kudus has won seven fouls across just 189 minutes of action in the Premier League already this season (3.33 per 90). This is obviously a tiny sample size, but it’s a massive part of his game - and I think most of the 10.5 fouls that Coventry commit per game in the Premier League, will be involving the Tottenham winger.

Kudus is priced at 1.83 to win 2+ fouls here, which is also a price worth looking at, but I’m willing to test the extra line here at a decent price for a player who is very comfortable when it comes to travelling with the ball, and should have a great battle with Jay Dasilva.

Caleb Yirenki played really well in Coventry’s 4-1 win over Newcastle last week, but is in for a tough midfield battle here against a trio of Gallagher, Fernandes and Tonali - all of whom will test the Ghanaian midfielder.

It’s always tough for new signings to adapt to the speed and intensity of the Premier League. We saw this on Yirenki’s debut at the Emirates, where he really struggled to handle Myles Lewis-Skelly and picked up a yellow card from two fouls.

He also picked up a caution in Coventry’s defeat to Villa in the EFL Cup, committing six fouls in total on that occasion. Gallagher in particular can cause Yirenki problems, he’s been playing pretty high for Tottenham this season and has won eight fouls across his three starts in the Premier League this term (3.46 per 90).

Powder Monkey is Racing Ratings' NAP of the day, with a perfect 10.0/10 rating.

The algorithm's highest rated horse of the day won four days in a row last week, from Wednesday to Saturday.

He is the clear favourite coming into this one, with two wins in his last three races, finishing in the top three in all of those.

Powder Monkey is a previous course and distance winner who specialises on the all-weather surface.

He runs for an in-form stable, George Boughey, with his chances further bolstered by the booking of high profile jockey Oisin Murphy.

Lady Henshaw is Racing Ratings' joint-2nd favourite horse of the day with a 9.6/10.

She is the joint-favourite for the 18:30, at the time of writing, but has shortened in odds of late.

Lady Henshaw is one of two horses in the race to have won last time out, the other is 8/1 shot Bahia Bonita.

She is a previous course and distance winner, who has shown promise on the all-weather albeit from a small sample.

This trip looks ideal, running this distance previously has seen her secure 1st and 2nd-placed finishes already in just a three-race career to date.

A Lott Of Kane is Racing Ratings' joint-2nd favourite of the day with a 9.6/10.

He's the clear favourite for the 18:45, at the time of writing, and has shortened in odds of late, from 5.50-4.00-3.75.

A Lott Of Kane has won three of his last four races coming into this, including his very last outing.

3rd-favourite Macarone has won three in a row, and Thanks Dad (33/1) won his third-to-last race, aside from that no other horse in the race has a victory in their last five - and it's a 13-runner field.

A Lott Of Kane is a double course and winner, capable of justifying favouritism this evening.

Sheik Yerbouti is Racing Ratings' joint-3rd favourite today with a 9.0/10 rating.

He has finished in the top three in two of four career races on today's ground.

Sheik Yerbouti's win last time out came over course and distance, less than three weeks ago.

Three of his last four races have come at Wolverhampton, making the top three on two of those occasions.

He's finished 3rd above this level before and prowess at the track should stand him in good stead to compete at the front.

Pompey are in good form, but it’s a squad game and Wolves have the upper hand in that department as both sides prepare for their fourth game in 11 days.

This is also the second of two away games in four days for the visitors, who won 1-0 at Norwich on Saturday.

Wolves got back to winning ways at the weekend, with a 2-1 win at Burnley on Friday, giving them more time than Pompey to prepare for this game, adding to the fixture congestion advantage.

They brought Mateus Mane, Tommy Doyle, Hugo Bueno and Ladislav Krejci off the bench in that game, a strength of second string that is leagues above Pompey’s bench strength.

Wolves have the best xG conceded per game figure in the division (1.01), and have generated almost 0.5 xG more than Pompey per game as well.

It’s an understandable short price for a parachute payments team hosting a Pompey side who’ve come through relegation battles in each of the last two seasons.

Wolves have a lot more firepower to call on to navigate their way out of this busy period.

Huddersfield have, finally, been dynamite this season.

They’re one of four teams trailing league leaders Bradford by just one point, but they’re the ones with the data to back it up.

They could cover this bet on their own - they rank 1st on expected points, with an expected goal difference of +12.0.

Reading are 2nd with +11.6 for this metric, but then to drop to 3rd is massive to +6.5 (Sheffield Wednesday).

Peterborough could chip in as well, they’ve scored five in two since Robbie Savage took over, generating well over 4 xG across those two, and Huddersfield haven’t kept a home clean sheet since the opening day in the league.

The Huddersfield win & over 2.5 goals double also appeals at odds-against prices.

Bristol Rovers cannot be trusted at the moment, and this is a good opportunity to oppose them with a Salford side who’ve won five on the bounce and seven of their last eight at a decent price.

Draw No Bet appeals, as does backing Salford -1 Goal Handicap (to win by two or more goals) for a longshot at 5.50.

As mentioned, this is mainly a move to lay Bristol Rovers, who have the bizarre record of five wins and six losses in the league.

They’ve now lost five of six in the league, four of those five losses have been by two or more goals, and the win was a 1-0 scalp over 16th-placed Exeter - who’ve only scored six in 11 games this season, so hardly a hugely impressive result.

They’ve underperformed a touch in both boxes, but they’re xG data is on the decline alongside their results, they’ve only generated a higher xG than their opponents in one of six, the win over Exeter.

Salford already have a six-point cushion inside the top three and can build on that this midweek at out-of-sorts Rovers.

Newport are winless from five league away games this season.

They’ve only won once away from home in the league since mid March, and that was against rock-bottom Barrow on the final game of last season.

Rotherham have only lost one of five home league games, and are one of the biggest xG underperformers in the EFL.

They’re 23rd in the league going into this midweek slate, despite trending as a play-off challenger and have unsustainably underperformed in both boxes - sustain the performance levels and the results will improve.

Newport are much improved from last season, but we’re yet to see it outside of Wales and Rotherham have shown their competitiveness at home.

1-1 v York (4th)
2-1 v Chesterfield (7th)
3-3 v Salford (1st)
1-1 v Crewe (3rd)
1-4 v Gillingham (6th)

Newport aren’t at the same level of the above five that Rotherham have already shown they can compete with, aside from the anomalous Gills defeat - where they somehow managed to concede four goals from eight total shots.

Rotherham’s league position can be, in part, put down to fixture difficulty in a small sample - they can start hauling themselves up the table with a positive result against Newport.

Raphinha has started the season with a point to prove, netting 14 goals across just nine starts with two of these goals coming in Barcelona’s 5-1 thrashing of Feyenoord last time out in the Champions League.

I still think Raphinha gets overlooked far too often in this Barcelona side. Most of the focus is, understandably, on Lamine Yamal and I get the sense that bothers Raphinha a little when he’s posting these kinds of numbers - and almost always turns up in the big moments.

Raphinha has taken 26 shots across his seven starts in LaLiga (4.07 per 90), seeing 16 of those efforts find the target (2.50 per 90). He scored three goals across his six starts in the Champions League last season, averaging 3.31 shots per 90 and 1.65 shots on target per 90.

Furthermore, PSG are not as settled at the back as their recent form would suggest. They’ve won each of their last five games, but only kept one clean sheet across these matches. They allowed Manchester City to have 27 shots and nine shots on target last time out in the Champions League.

Rodri has taken this Barcelona side to another level. 

They were already definitely the best attacking side in Europe, but it was Flick’s insistence to play with a high line that saw them fall short defensively - particularly in the Champions League.

Putting Rodri into midfield has pretty much solved this issue, mainly because Barcelona are not turning over the ball as much as they did last season. 

This isn’t something that’s really obvious at the moment, but I think it will be key in these sorts of games and in the latter stages of the Champions League.

Rodri has won five fouls across his six starts in LaLiga this term (0.87 per 90), and was also fouled twice in Barcelona’s win over Galatasaray last time out. 

He’ll be up against a PSG midfield who are instructed to counter press by Luis Enrique, committing 11 fouls in Manchester with four of these being on Anderson and Fernandez in midfield. 

Barcelona will have to keep a keen eye on Hakimi as well as all the attacking talent of this PSG side if they are to come away with a positive result here.

The PSG right-back has long established himself as one of the best fullbacks in Europe, being just as comfortable going forward as he is looking after some of the best wingers in the Champions League. 

Hakimi’s runs forward make him a good player to target to win fouls. He’s so positive with the ball, and will even pop up in number 10 and winger positions to try and impact the game.

He’s won seven fouls across his five starts in Ligue 1 this term (1.54 per 90), and his direct opponent here is likely to be Anthony Gordon - which is a battle worth watching. Hakimi also maintained an average of 0.94 fouls won per 90 across 13 starts in the Champions League last season, showing that this is a consistent part of his game.

Barcelona have won all 11 of their games across all competitions this season.

They’ve done so in devastating fashion as well, scoring at least three goals in 10 of these games. They’re the most complete side in Europe at the moment, and I think they can avoid defeat against the reigning European champions.

We know that PSG don’t really pay too much attention to the league phase of the Champions League. They’ve managed to win the competition without finishing in the top eight in each of the last two seasons with Enrique preferring his side to peak at the tail end of the season.

I also felt that PSG got a bit lucky at the Etihad in the Champions League last time out, coming away 4-2 winners but losing the xG battle (2.63-1.83) and having 12 shots less than Maresca’s side (27-15). 

Barcelona have won all 11 of their games across all competitions this season.

They’ve done so in devastating fashion as well, scoring at least three goals in 10 of these games. They’re the most complete side in Europe at the moment, and I think they can avoid defeat against the reigning European champions.

We know that PSG don’t really pay too much attention to the league phase of the Champions League. They’ve managed to win the competition without finishing in the top eight in each of the last two seasons with Enrique preferring his side to peak at the tail end of the season.

I also felt that PSG got a bit lucky at the Etihad in the Champions League last time out, coming away 4-2 winners but losing the xG battle (2.63-1.83) and having 12 shots less than Maresca’s side (27-15). 

It’s hard to see anything other than a convincing City win here, even if Maresca rotates the side. They’re as short as 1.08 to win here, so we’re getting a slightly better price with backing them on the handicap.

All this means is that we’re backing City to win by two or more goals - something they managed on Matchday 1 of the Champions League as they beat Porto 2-0 on the road. This selection has landed in five of City’s games so far this season in total, and this is one of their weaker opponents.

AEK Athens were outclassed by Shakhtar in the Champions League last time out, losing 3-1 as the away side and conceding an xG of 1.37. There’s a reason they’re priced at 20/1 to pick up three points here, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they cause City any real issues.

Lamine Yamal continues to perform to a ridiculous standard, most recently registering a goal and an assist against Betis in Barcelona’s 5-2 victory on the road. 

Yamal has registered 19 goal contributions across just 11 appearances for Barcelona this season. His headline numbers keep getting better, with Yamal recording 41 goal contributions across 45 appearances last term - I think he can exceed that tally with the way he’s started this season.

Yamal has provided a goal contribution in each of his last nine appearances for Barcelona, recording multiple goal contributions in eight of these matches. Barcelona arrive at the Parc Des Princes in strong form too, winning all 11 of their games this season and scoring at least three goals in 10 of these matches.

Enzo Fernandez was given a bit of a rest in City’s 3-2 win over Ipswich, but did come on in the second half of that clash to have two shots, one of which found the target.

It’s clear that Enzo Maresca sees Fernandez as a player who can impact the game in the final third. Elliot Anderson and Ayyoub Boudaddi are much better suited to a slightly deeper role, with Fernandez being a very effective box crasher for Chelsea under Maresca.

Fernandez has taken eight shots across his four starts for City in the Premier League this season (1.83 per 90), seeing half of those efforts find the target (0.92 per 90). He’s also had 3+ shots in both of City’s Champions League matches against PSG and Porto, finding the target once against the latter.

Lazaros Rota is set to line up at right back here, earning him the almost impossible task of dealing with Jeremy Doku.

Doku is the best player in Europe for me when it comes to winning fouls from fullbacks. He’s so sharp from a standing start, and he can also go both ways - leaving most fullbacks with no choice but to hack at the Belgian winger.

Doku maintained an average of 3.08 fouls won per 90 across 19 starts in the Premier League last season, showing just how frequently we can expect the City man to test Rota.

Rota is quite an aggressive player anyway, committing nine fouls across his five starts in the Greek Super League this term (1.81 per 90). Doku should exaggerate this foul record further, with Ndiaye also being just as much of a test for Rota should Maresca choose to rest Doku.

Majer is likely to be AEK Athens’ main source of creativity here, and I can see City hauling him down at least once to limit his influence.

Majer has won four fouls across his two starts in the Champions League this season (2.25 per 90), most recently drawing two fouls against Shakhtar as AEK Athens fell to a 3-1 defeat on the road.

Majer has also maintained a solid record when it comes to winning fouls domestically, winning eight fouls across his five starts (1.61 per 90). 

He’ll line up either on the right hand side, or in central midfield - with both positions likely to see Majer be able to win at least one foul, possibly when AEK Athens try and put together a counter attack.

I like this angle for a bet builder selection as it’s really simple, we just need Donnarumma to make a single save and he’s been called into action quite regularly for City this term.

Donnarumma has been forced into making 21 saves across his seven starts in the Premier League (3.00 per 90), with an impressive save percentage of 75%. It goes without saying that City will dominate this game, but I still think there are issues for them at the back.

Even Ipswich and Coventry have managed to draw a save from Donnarumma at the Etihad this term, with the former scoring twice over the weekend which highlights that defensive vulnerability which is still lingering.

AEK Athens have forced the opposition keeper into making 2+ saves in both of their Champions League matches so far against LASK and Shakthar. This is obviously a massive step up in quality, but this is such a low line to hit.

It’s hard to see anything other than a convincing City win here, even if Maresca rotates the side. They’re as short as 1.08 to win here, so we’re getting a slightly better price with backing them on the handicap.

All this means is that we’re backing City to win by two or more goals - something they managed on Matchday 1 of the Champions League as they beat Porto 2-0 on the road. This selection has landed in five of City’s games so far this season in total, and this is one of their weaker opponents.

AEK Athens were outclassed by Shakhtar in the Champions League last time out, losing 3-1 as the away side and conceding an xG of 1.37. There’s a reason they’re priced at 20/1 to pick up three points here, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they cause City any real issues.

Lamine Yamal continues to perform to a ridiculous standard, most recently registering a goal and an assist against Betis in Barcelona’s 5-2 victory on the road. 

Yamal has registered 19 goal contributions across just 11 appearances for Barcelona this season. His headline numbers keep getting better, with Yamal recording 41 goal contributions across 45 appearances last term - I think he can exceed that tally with the way he’s started this season.

Yamal has provided a goal contribution in each of his last nine appearances for Barcelona, recording multiple goal contributions in eight of these matches. Barcelona arrive at the Parc Des Princes in strong form too, winning all 11 of their games this season and scoring at least three goals in 10 of these matches. 

Ousmane Dembele loves this competition, and Luis Enrique always makes sure that he’s at peak fitness to perform in these big games.

The way that Enrique has managed the schedule of his top stars is impressive. PSG can afford to rotate heavily in their league games ahead of a European fixture, as they did against Strasbourg at the weekend - where Dembele came off the bench to score and assist. 

Dembele has registered 10 goal contributions across just nine appearances for PSG so far this season. He’s rested with these games in mind, so I expect to see a similar performance from Dembele as we’ve seen in both of his Champions League displays so far.

Nuno Mendes is out for this game, meaning we are likely to see Lucas Digne try and handle Lamine Yamal.

We saw this clash at the World Cup over the summer, and Digne really struggled to deal with Yamal. He gave away a penalty in that World Cup clash, and was very fortunate to avoid a caution for the foul.

Yamal will really fancy his chances of testing Digne, he’s won 13 fouls across his nine starts in LaLiga this term (1.58 per 90), and also maintained an average of 2.99 fouls won per 90 in the Champions League last season - confirming that he will be a real test for the former Villa fullback.

Cancelo also has a tough personal assignment with the Barcelona fullback set to be up against Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.

I was very surprised to see Kvaratskhelia on the bench for PSG’s win over Manchester City in the Champions League last time out, but he will definitely start here and cause Cancelo issues.

Cancelo lacks defensive discipline and can be quite petulant as well, I can see scenarios developing where Cancelo is caught up the pitch and has to make tactical fouls when tracking back against Kvaratskhelia.

The PSG winger averaged 2.29 fouls won per 90 across 14 starts in the Champions League last season, actually being PSG’s best player during that campaign. 

Cancelo has collected one yellow card already this season for Barcelona, and also picked up two cautions over the recent international break for Portugal. 

Isak returned to Liverpool’s starting lineup for their 2-1 win over Brentford over the weekend, coming from behind at the G-Tech after the home side had dropped down to 10 men after taking a first half lead.

Isak looks much more like the player we saw at Newcastle in the early weeks of this season. Iraola has already made subtle tweaks to his game, to bring the forward more in line with the high intensity style the former Bournemouth boss wants to see from his team.

Isak has scored five goals across his six starts in the Premier League this season, averaging 3.10 shots per 90 and seeing eight efforts find the target (1.46 per 90). He should get chances against a Villarreal backline who have failed to keep a clean sheet in either of their Champions League matches so far.

Nathan Saliba will line up on the right wing for Villarreal here, and shown real promise in the Champions League when it comes to winning fouls across his two appearances against Dortmund and Napoli so far.

Saliba was fouled twice in both of these matches, and acts as a decent outlet for Villarreal as there really isn’t much speed at the top end of this team. 

We’ve already seen Liverpool be way more aggressive when out of possession this season, ranking third in the Premier League for fouls committed (13.9 per game). This is a significant rise on their foul numbers from last season, and Saliba is an obvious target as Villarreal’s main outlet.

Saliba will be running at Milos Kerkez here, who has also been a bit more aggressive compared to last season - committing 10 fouls across just six starts in the Premier League this season (1.59 per 90).

I’d argue that Jeremy Jacquet has been Liverpool’s best performer so far this season, and certainly their best signing over the summer window.

They had to go early to secure his signature too, Chelsea and United were also interested in the former Rennes man but Liverpool managed to get the deal over the line and he’s slotted in really well next to Van Dijk.

One of his best attributes is his strength. It makes him perfectly suited for Premier League football, as he doesn’t get bullied by the over aggressive forwards and has a solid fouls won record as a result.

Jacquet has won seven fouls across his seven starts in the Premier League this term (1.06 per 90), ranking him in the 71st percentile when compared to other centre backs in the Premier League for the same metric.

Jacquet also maintained an average of 0.91 fouls won per 90 for Rennes in Ligue 1 last season across 19 starts - showing that this is a consistent part of his game.

Alisson has been slightly busier than usual in the early months of Andoni Iraola’s reign, as Liverpool attempt to fix the defensive and build up issues which are calling Alisson into action more often.

This isn’t a massive issue for Liverpool, as Alisson is still one of the best shot stoppers in Europe and he’s been forced into making 16 saves across just seven starts (2.29 per 90). He was forced into making three saves in Liverpool’s win over Atletico Madrid at Anfield, and I think Villarreal can force him into at least two stops.

Villarreal have had 4+ shots on target in both of their Champions League matches so far, managing six shots on target in their 3-2 defeat to Dortmund on the road on Matchday 1. That away clash saw them test Kobel on five occasions, showing the attacking threat they can pose here. 

Liverpool have won both of their games in the Champions League so far, and a third victory here would likely be enough for them to at least be sure of a top 24 finish - and set up a decent chance of a top 8 finish, while allowing Iraola to rotate in more packed portions of the season.

Villarreal have struggled to find the form that earned them a spot in the Champions League last season. They’ve only won two of their nine games in LaLiga this term, and lost to Dortmund 3-2 on Matchday 1 whilst conceding an xG of 2.83 from 18 shots. Furthermore, Villarreal have won just one of their five away games domestically this season.

Liverpool are growing in confidence under Iraola and come into this clash having won four of their last five matches. They’re showing plenty of resilience in these games too, battling back from behind against Brentford over the weekend as well as surviving a late spell from LASK last time out in the Champions League.