Tips Hub

Bragantino’s recent form looks poor on paper, but the four defeats they’ve suffered across their last five matches have all been against sides that sit above them in the table. 

They’ve also only lost by one goal in all four of these games, suggesting that Bragantino have been a little unlucky to come away from recent games without at least a point. Their last three matches have also been away from home, and I think they will benefit from playing in front of their own fans again.

They take on a Mirassol side who have generally struggled on the road in Serie A this term, winning just two of their 13 matches. It’s not like they’ve managed to grind out draws in these games either, losing eight of their away assignments - conceding 21 goals in the process (1.61 per game).

Only four sides have picked up fewer points on the road than Mirassol in the Brazilian top flight this term, which goes against their recent form which actually looks pretty positive on paper. Only five sides have beaten Bragantino at home this season, and Mirassol look unlikely to add to that given their poor record on the road this season.

This is a massive game at the bottom of the Brazilian Serie A with both Remo and Gremio sitting in the relegation zone as we approach the final few weeks of the domestic season.

Remo are in slightly more trouble than Gremio ahead of kick off here having lost each of their last five matches, leaving them eight points from safety. Despite this dreadful run, Remo have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, suggesting that they are carrying an attacking threat despite their poor form.

Gremio have only won one of their last five games, so these are two sides that are low on confidence heading into a must win clash. 

Only two sides have kept fewer clean sheets than Remo in the Brazilian Serie A this season (3), and Gremio aren’t much better at keeping sides out having kept just six clean sheets across their 28 matches (21%).

Shamrock sit third in the Irish Premier Division and are locked in a title race with St Patrick’s Athletic and Bohemians - with all three sides sitting on 59 points ahead of this clash, Shamrock crucially hold a game in hand.

Shamrock came away 3-2 winners over Waterford last time out, which was a much needed victory as it ended a seven game run without a victory. That sounds alarming on paper, but the only defeats that Shamrock suffered in this run were in Europa League and Conference League qualifying, as well as against St Patrick’s on two occasions.

Shamrock boast the best home record of any side in the Irish Premier Division having won 11 of their 15 games, losing just once. They’ve netted 28 goals across these games, the second highest tally of any side at home in the Irish top flight.

Drogheda have only managed to win four of their 16 away games in the Irish Premier Division this season, notably conceding 30 goals across these games - the second highest tally of any side on the road in the Irish top flight this term. They’ve also lost their last three trips to Shamrock, most recently falling to a 4-1 defeat back in May.

KuPS lead the way in the Veikkausliiga Championship group, sitting top of the table alongside FC Inter Turku in what looks to be a tight fight for the title in Finland.

KuPS have only lost one of their 12 home games domestically this season, netting 21 goals across these games and conceding just 14. Only IF Gnistan (23) have scored more goals at home of the sides in the Championship group than KuPS. 

Oulu are the weakest side in the Championship group on paper and sit 14 points behind the league leaders ahead of this clash. They’ve generally struggled on the road this season, winning just four of their 12 away assignments and have conceded 17 goals across these games - the most of any side on the road in the Championship group.

Furthermore, KuPS have won each of the last six head to head meetings between the sides when they’ve been in front of their own fans. Their most recent victory over Oulu at home came back in April, with KuPs recording a 3-2 win on that occasion.

Bayern Munich have started the season as you’d expect in the Bundesliga, winning three of their opening four matches and netting more goals than any other side in the process (14).

That scoring power jumps off the page straight away, but what is more impressive for Vincent Kompany’s side is the fact that they’ve only conceded two goals across these games. Schalke were the only side to hold them to a draw so far this season, which was a game that Bayern should have won when looking at the underlying numbers. 

Bayern Munich beat Augsburg 3-2 on the road last season, posting an xG of 4.24 as they outscored the home side - who did quite well to score twice with an xG of just 0.51 from three efforts on target. 

Bayern have actually managed to win on each of their last four trips to Augsburg, so it’s clearly a trip they enjoy and their current form makes it really hard to make a case for the home side despite their decent start to the campaign.

York have settled in really well to the EFL in front of their own fans, winning all four of their home games at the start of this season - netting 12 goals across these games and conceding just three.

York have scored more goals at home than any other side in League Two this season, with only four sides in the division boasting a better defensive record than the newly promoted side. 

They recorded a convincing home victory against Gillingham last time out, coming away 3-0 winners with an xG of 2.21 from 17 shots while the away side couldn’t even muster an effort on target from the six shots they had in the contest.

Northampton have lost each of their last three games ahead of this clash, and sit just one point above the drop zone in the early stages of the campaign - winning just one of their opening seven games. 

They haven’t won an away game this season, and have only scored one goal across their three assignments - making it hard to make a case for them to score here.

Lille have enjoyed a fairly strong start to the season having won three of their opening five games, netting eight goals in the process.

They’ve avoided defeat across their two home games, beating Troyes in a comfortable 2-0 victory after holding PSG to a 2-2 draw in a game that Lille could have got even more out of when looking over the underlying numbers.

Lille only lost four of their 17 home games in Ligue 1 last season, finishing third behind the two main title challengers in PSG and Lens. They found these sorts of games fairly routine last season, avoiding defeat against Le Havre both home and away.

Le Havre are yet to win a game in Ligue 1 this season having lost three of their opening five games. They’ve only scored four goals across these games, which is a real concern as that is the second lowest tally in the division across the opening five matches.

Furthermore, Le Havre will crucially be without starting goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi-Nzau who has had to make more saves than any other keeper so far (19), boasting a goals  prevented tally of 1.50.

Chelsea’s defensive issues are quite deep rooted, the Blues have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 21 Premier League matches - stretching all the way back to a shut out against Brentford back in Liam Rosenior’s brief tenure.

Xabi Alonso’s side faced a sobering 3-0 defeat at Brentford just before the international break, which was a result that highlighted the lack of balance and defensive rigidity of the squad. They’ve seen BTTS in their other four Premier League games, conceding 12 goals across these matches: no side has conceded more goals in the Premier League than Chelsea this season.

Bournemouth are one of only three sides in the Premier League yet to register a win domestically, but they have drawn three of their five matches and have found the back of the net in all but one of their games - with that blank coming against Liverpool just before the international break.

This is usually a very entertaining game, each of the last three clashes between the sides at Stamford Bridge has seen BTTS with the meeting last year ending 2-2 with both sides posting healthy xG numbers (2.31-3.14).

It’s going to be very tough for any side to visit the London Stadium and leave with anything of note this season, West Ham have grown into the season after a tough start and look well placed to pick up all three points as Championship action returns.

West Ham lost their opening home game of the campaign against Charlton, but have won their three games in front of their own fans since. They’ve scored 14 goals across these games, which is unsurprisingly one of the highest tallies at home in the Championship - only Southampton (15) have scored more goals at home than West Ham so far.

QPR are yet to lose on the road in the Championship this term, but this looks like a very uphill battle for Julien Stephan’s side - who only managed to win one of their last five games prior to the international break. This is easily QPR’s more difficult away assignment of the season so far, and I think we’ll see West Ham get back to winning ways following a lengthy international break.

Dortmund were in brilliant form before the international break, winning each of their last six games - notably winning three of these games to nil.

Dortmund have a perfect record at home so far this season too having won both of their games at the Signal Iduna against Paderborn and Hamburg, keeping clean sheets in both of these matches.

They take on a Werder Bremen side who were more relieved to see the international break having failed to win either of their two away games in the Bundesliga this term, conceding five goals across these games.

Werder Bremen also have a pretty poor record away at Dortmund, as most sides in the Bundesliga do, having won just two of the 16 meetings between the teams at the Signal Iduna. They lost 3-0 in this fixture last season, facing an xG of 2.42 while only producing 0.52 xG from six shots themselves.

Falkirk are favourites to beat Dundee in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday, but I think this will be a tighter contest than the pre-match odds suggest.

The Bairns sit second from bottom, while fourth-placed Dundee signed off for the international break with a 2-1 win over Motherwell.

Steven Pressley’s side have scored in six of their seven league games this season, with their only blank coming away at Celtic on the opening weekend.

While Falkirk have shown more attacking promise in recent weeks, they remain vulnerable at the back, conceding against 10-man St Johnstone last time out. 

Indeed, John McGlynn’s side have failed to silence their opponents in six of their seven top-flight matches this term, including all three of their fixtures at the Falkirk Stadium.

I’m backing Partick Thistle to score at least once away at Livingston on Saturday.

The Jags got their promotion push back on track with an impressive 3-0 win over Arbroath last weekend.

While Mark Wilson’s side had been stuttering before that, their performances had been better than their results suggested, with a lack of cutting edge proving costly.

That victory should have lifted spirits within the Firhill camp ahead of a trip to Livingston, who lost 2-1 at home to Ayr last weekend despite playing with a man advantage for most of the game.

The Lions have also conceded in recent home games against Stenhousemuir and Inverness.

Thistle will represent a tougher test than either of those opponents, particularly given the firepower at their disposal.

The Jags have scored in two of their three league games away from home this season and won the reverse fixture 2-0, so they look well capable of finding the net again on Saturday.

I rarely go against Arbroath at Gayfield, and they look worth backing in the draw no bet market against Morton on Saturday. 

The Red Lichties are unbeaten in all four of their home league games this season, a run that includes a win over ante-post title favourites Livingston. 

They also saw off Queen’s Park 2-1 in their last home match, which bodes well for another visit from one of the division’s strugglers. 

Morton are the only side across the SPFL still searching for their first league win of the season, having taken just one point from their opening eight games.

Their struggles continued with a 2-1 defeat at home to Raith Rovers last Saturday.

Arbroath also came out on top when these sides met in August, strengthening the case for backing the hosts with the draw no bet safety net.

Stenhousemuir have made a stunning start to the season, so it’s surprising to see them priced up as such big outsiders away at Inverness on Saturday.

Marvin Bartley’s men are strengthening their title credentials with every passing week, having won seven and drawn one of their opening eight league games of the season.

That stalemate came on the opening weekend, meaning the Warriors have since won seven successive Championship matches, including impressive away victories at Queen’s Park, Livingston and Ayr.

A solid defence has been central to that success, and I’m backing them with a +1.5 head start on the handicap against an Inverness side they have already beaten this season.

What’s more, the Caley Jags have won just one of their four home league games this season, with that solitary success coming against rock-bottom Morton.

Hearts look worth siding with to get back to winning ways when they host St Mirren in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday. 

Wouter Vrancken’s side saw their four-match unbeaten run ended by Falkirk before being held to a 1-1 draw by Kilmarnock.

However, Hearts have won all three of their home league games this season, seeing off both Dundee clubs and St Johnstone.

Those victories came against sides of a similar standard of opposition to that of St Mirren, and I think the Jambos’ superior quality will tell again this weekend.

The Saints went into the international break on the back of a third straight league defeat, losing 3-0 at home to Dundee United. 

That poor run adds to the appeal of backing Hearts to maintain their 100% home record.

Philadelphia have recovered really well from a slow start to the campaign and enter this clash having won each of their last six matches - netting 3+ goals in five of these games.

It’s no secret that Philadelphia have one of the most talented young players to come out of America in recent years with Cavan Sullivan pitching in with 12 goal contributions in the MLS this term despite still being a teenager. It’ll be interesting to see if his planned move to Manchester City materialises now with all the off field issues.

Real Salt Lake have lost four of their last five games ahead of this clash, but did manage to end that run of four consecutive defeats with a 3-0 win over New England last time out, which was a surprising result but one they deserved on the underlying numbers.

Philadelphia should have too much for this Real Salt Lake, even with that morale boosting win the away side earned last time out. Real Salt Lake are also without seven first team members here, including Diego Luna - who is their best player in my view.

There really isn’t much between these sides, San Jose sit slightly higher in the table but both occupy playoff positions in the Western Conference with this game being a good opportunity to spirit those spots.

Colorado notably boast the second best home record of any side in the Western Conference, only league leaders Vancouver have picked up more points in front of their own fans than Colorado with the home side here winning nine of their 13 matches and netting 25 goals in the process.

San Jose have only kept one clean sheet across their last five matches, but have avoided defeat across these games. They ran out 3-1 winners over Portland at home last time out, but did allow Portland to generate an xG of 1.33 and take more shots (18-13).

Furthermore, San Jose actually boast the joint best away record of any side in the Western Conference - once again levelling the playing field between these two as it matches Colorado’s impressive home record. San Jose have netted 24 goals across their 13 away games this term (1.84 per game).

Orlando have been one of my go-to sides for BTTS in the MLS this season, they’ve seen 112 goals across their 27 matches (4.14 per game), which is unsurprisingly more than any other side across the two divisions.

Orlando have lost each of their last three games ahead of this clash, but have seen BTTS in all three of these matches. They’ve also notably been the away side in all of these matches, which is generally where they have struggled all season - winning just three of their 14 games on the road, but still managing to score 25 goals which sums them up quite well.

Columbus have opposite recent form having won each of their last three matches, seeing BTTS in two of these games. They also have a pretty poor record on the road having won just two of their opening 13 matches and have also recently lost their manager following a comment he made to a female referee.

Each of the last five head to head meetings between the sides have seen BTTS, including the most recent clash which saw Columbus come away 2-1 winners in the Open Cup just last month.

Inter Miami are one of the most entertaining teams in football at the moment, there aren’t many sides that can concede 50 goals across 27 matches (1.85 per game) and still sit third in the league having lost just five of these games.

Their scoring power is usually what separates them from the rest of the sides in the division, no side has scored more goals than Inter Miami in the Eastern Conference of the MLS this term (64 - 2.37 per game). 

They clearly trust in their ability to simply outscore the opposition, making them a good team to back for goals at both ends.

DC United have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches, including putting three goals past Western Conference leaders in Vancouver in their most recent away game. 

They should be able to find a way past an Inter Miami side who have only kept one clean sheet across their last five matches - winning just once across these games as well.

I think Dortmund will win quite comfortably here, they’ve won both of their home games in the Bundesliga to nil and beat Werder Bremen home and away last season - with Guirassy scoring in both games.

Guirassy has always been a bit disrespected when it comes to people discussing top level strikers, he’s never quite in that conversation but has shown remarkable consistency for Dortmund in his two seasons at the club.

Guirassy has come away with a 20+ haul in both of his seasons at Dortmund, also hitting 30 goals in his final season at Stuttgart. He’s already scored twice in the Bundesliga this season, and also netted a brace in the Champions League against Villarreal.

He also carried his strong form in the early stages of the season into the international break, netting what proved to be the winner against Kenya and taking the most shots of any player (4).

Guirassy’s underlying numbers are also positive with the striker taking 13 shots across his four starts in the Bundesliga (3.43 per 90), seeing seven of these attempts find the target (1.85 per 90). 

Only Harry Kane (62) has scored more goals in the Bundesliga over the last two seasons than Guirassy (41). Some bookies have Guirassy as short as 1.4 to score in this game, 1.72 is an appealing price with his record at the start of the season.

Hearts look worth siding with to get back to winning ways when they host St Mirren in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday. 

Wouter Vrancken’s side saw their four-match unbeaten run ended by Falkirk before being held to a 1-1 draw by Kilmarnock.

However, Hearts have won all three of their home league games this season, seeing off both Dundee clubs and St Johnstone.

Those victories came against sides of a similar standard of opposition to that of St Mirren, and I think the Jambos’ superior quality will tell again this weekend.

The Saints went into the international break on the back of a third straight league defeat, losing 3-0 at home to Dundee United. 

That poor run adds to the appeal of backing Hearts to maintain their 100% home record.

I’m backing Partick Thistle to score at least once away at Livingston on Saturday.

The Jags got their promotion push back on track with an impressive 3-0 win over Arbroath last weekend.

While Mark Wilson’s side had been stuttering before that, their performances had been better than their results suggested, with a lack of cutting edge proving costly.

That victory should have lifted spirits within the Firhill camp ahead of a trip to Livingston, who lost 2-1 at home to Ayr last weekend despite playing with a man advantage for most of the game.

The Lions have also conceded in recent home games against Stenhousemuir and Inverness.

Thistle will represent a tougher test than either of those opponents, particularly given the firepower at their disposal.

The Jags have scored in two of their three league games away from home this season and won the reverse fixture 2-0, so they look well capable of finding the net again on Saturday.

It’s going to be very tough for any side to visit the London Stadium and leave with anything of note this season, West Ham have grown into the season after a tough start and look well placed to pick up all three points as Championship action returns.

West Ham lost their opening home game of the campaign against Charlton, but have won their three games in front of their own fans since. They’ve scored 14 goals across these games, which is unsurprisingly one of the highest tallies at home in the Championship - only Southampton (15) have scored more goals at home than West Ham so far.

QPR are yet to lose on the road in the Championship this term, but this looks like a very uphill battle for Julien Stephan’s side - who only managed to win one of their last five games prior to the international break. This is easily QPR’s more difficult away assignment of the season so far, and I think we’ll see West Ham get back to winning ways following a lengthy international break.

As mentioned, West Ham have been pretty destructive, especially at home. Seven of their eight Championship games have had three or more goals, with a clean sweep for this selection on home soil.

They have immense quality that cannot be understated, with the majority of this squad being Premier League level players of course.

They’ve covered this selection themselves in each of their last three at home, scoring six, three and four.

QPR do carry a threat going forward and can definitely contribute here. They’ll play without fear and Millwall showed that with intensity, you can really get at this West Ham side.

This is a selection I’ve backed a few times and it’s still at a point that it’s worth it.

Incredibly, Mavropanos is the joint fourth highest scorer in the Championship this season. He’s got four goals, the same as Jarrod Bowen.

He is absolutely monstrous in the air and through Bowen and Engels, West Ham have exceptional deliveries into the box.

He’s had one or more shots in seven of nine domestically this season, averaging 1.92 per 90 minutes and he carried this into the break, having a shot in every game for Greece (seven in total).

Walker-Pieters has impressed me when I’ve watched West Ham this season. He’s brilliant at driving forward and getting them out of presses, but I do question his defensive ability.

He’s averaged 1.32 fouls per 90 minutes in the Championship so far this season, committing one or more in four of his five appearances.

He really struggled against Millwall. He made two fouls in the first-half before being hooked at half-time.

He’ll likely be tasked with stopping the dangerous Kwame Poku, who has drawn 1.19 fouls per 90 minutes.