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Liverpool to score

No team suffered more in the modern era as a result of City’s now proven cheating than Liverpool, and I think you’ll feel that grievance in the atmosphere at Anfield on Sunday.

Liverpool have an excellent record at Anfield against Manchester City, losing just two of the last 16 Premier League meetings between the sides at the stadium.

They’ve only failed to score in one of these games, which was a 0-0 draw back in 2018 - so each of City’s last seven trips to Anfield have seen them concede at least once.

Liverpool are improving under Iraola and have scored in all but one of their games so far, with that blank coming against Fulham - a match which saw Liverpool generate an xG of 1.28 from 14 shots and have four big chances.

Manchester City have won all five of their games in the Premier League so far, but have had issues at the back - conceding three goals against Sunderland at home just before the international break after Crystal Palace and Bournemouth had also managed to score against them this term.

There are some signs that City have been getting a bit lucky defensively as well, each of their last three opponents in the Premier League has generated an xG of 1.0 or higher - with Sunderland and Coventry being two of these sides, the former generated an xG of 3.57 at the Etihad.

Haaland 1+ SOT

Unsurprisingly, Erling Haaland has had more shots on target than any other player in the Premier League across the opening five games of the season.

I thought that he may have some slight issues in adapting to Maresca’s style of play, but that hasn’t been the case with the striker looking even better than he did last season having scored five goals across his five starts from 10 shots on target (2.0 per 90).

Haaland enjoyed a strong international break too, scoring three goals across his four games for Norway from 18 shots (4.81 per 90), seeing half of those efforts find the target (2.40 per 90).

Haaland has scored in each of his last three appearances against Liverpool, netting a hat trick when the sides last met in the FA Cup earlier this year. He had 2+ SOT in all three of those games, actually finding the target on three occasions in two of those assignments.

Naval Light is Sunday's Racing Ratings NAP, with a perfect 10.0.

Naval Light was an impressive winner at the Ayr Gold Cup festival last time out, landing a Class 2 handicap off a mark of 87. He runs off 93 today, and last time out was his first run over 1m, so 93 may still be within the scope of this 3-year-old's progression.

The speed figures on offer were promising; he finished at 110.6% of his own average last time, and his career peak speed is 42.4mph, both within the top 3 here. The ground was heavy at Ayr, so it's hard to look at recent figures too closely, but there is a lot to like about this son of Havana Grey now returned to Epsom.

James Doyle is riding at a strike rate of 18.6% over the last two weeks and notched an impressive winner yesterday at Group level on Humidity. Karl Burke is renowned for his 2 and 3yo's and he looks to have picked out a handy route for Naval Light here.

It’s hard to see how this will be a low scoring game with all of the background noise affecting Manchester City following on from the announcement that City have been found guilty of nearly all of the 115 charges put to them three years ago.

Ironically, City now travel to face the side who suffered more as a result of City’s cheating more than any other side in the Premier League. Liverpool will be eager to welcome them too, having only lost one of the last six meetings between the teams at Anfield - with half of these games seeing 3+ goals.

Liverpool have seen 3+ goals in three of their four games at Anfield this season, with the exception of a 0-0 draw against Fulham that saw both sides combine to produce an xG of 1.98 as well as 42 touches in the box.

Liverpool are set to be without Jeremy Jacquet for this clash which is a big miss to a back line that already looked pretty vulnerable. I think City will be able to score here, and Liverpool should have all the motivation they need to contribute to this tally as well.

Unsurprisingly, Erling Haaland has had more shots on target than any other player in the Premier League across the opening five games of the season.

I thought that he may have some slight issues in adapting to Maresca’s style of play, but that hasn’t been the case with the striker looking even better than he did last season having scored five goals across his five starts from 10 shots on target (2.0 per 90).

Haaland enjoyed a strong international break too, scoring three goals across his four games for Norway from 18 shots (4.81 per 90), seeing half of those efforts find the target (2.40 per 90).

Haaland has scored in each of his last three appearances against Liverpool, netting a hat trick when the sides last met in the FA Cup earlier this year. He had 2+ SOT in all three of those games, actually finding the target on three occasions in two of those assignments.

Alexander Isak and Cody Gakpo are real doubts for this game having picked up injuries during the international break, setting the stage for Bradley Barcola to make his first real impact in a Liverpool shirt.

Barcola has everything to be a top winger, he’s really quick and regularly gets into promising positions. His issue over the last few seasons has been converting these opportunities, his final product has been a bit lacking even in his early few weeks at Liverpool - but he’s still been getting into decent positions to take aim.

He started both games against Belgium for France over the international break, having 2+ shots in both games and also finding the target in both matches. He also had an effort on target against Bournemouth just before the international break, and notably averaged 1.59 shots on target per 90 for PSG in Ligue 1 last season. 

There aren’t many players who will be as fired up as Dominik Szoboszlai for this game, who has been moved to a slightly deeper role by Andoni Iraola as he tries to find the best balance for his midfield.

Szoboszlai has committed 10 fouls across his five starts in the Premier League already this season (2.04 per 90). This is a substantial increase on his foul numbers from last season (1.14 per 90), with Liverpool generally playing with more intensity under Iraola as they attempt to understand his style of play.

Szoboszlai will be directly up against a trio of Cherki, Anderson and Fernandez who have all shown promise when it comes to winning fouls this season - Anderson and Fernandez are the two shortest players in the market with most bookmakers to be fouled here, giving Szoboszlai the perfect direct opponents to commit at least one foul. 

Zarak Crown holds a Racing Rating of 7.8 ahead of the 14:57 at Goodwood.

This 2-Yo represents a profile I love to back in these kinds of races, he is a lightly raced 2-YO making his handicap debut coming off two strong novice runs. He looks relatively unexposed off a mark of 79, as he is also stepped up in trip ahead of this contest.

His debut form, whilst he may have a distant 4th, has been franked emphatically, with Burning Up going on to finish 2nd in the Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) and his recent win has seen the 5th place now rated 78, whom he beat by nearly 4l. The 6th place has also run since, finishing 2nd in a Class 3 contest at Salisbury.

Zarak Crown's breeding suggests he should have no difficulty handling this extra furlong and he looks like the one to beat on handicap debut for James Doyle.

Haas Boy holds a Racing Rating of 7.2 ahead of the 16:22 at Chepstow.

Haas Boy looks like a good price at 17/2 here, especially since he landed a handicap off this exact mark at Ascot on his last run. This is his ideal trip, he looks well treated and most importantly, he enjoys running fresh. He won on his seasonal debut at Newcastle last year, and after over 6 months off, he looks ready to make an impression here.

Lorcan Williams, 2024 Champion Hurdle-winning jockey, takes the ride, and his strike rate around here is very solid, winning at 15.5% and is +£14.20 to a level stake over the last 5 years. Trainer Chester Williams does not often run them around here, but when he does, they win. Three runners at Chepstow in the last five years, two winners.

Naval Light is Sunday's Racing Ratings NAP, with a perfect 10.0.

Naval Light was an impressive winner at the Ayr Gold Cup festival last time out, landing a Class 2 handicap off a mark of 87. He runs off 93 today, and last time out was his first run over 1m, so 93 may still be within the scope of this 3-year-old's progression.

The speed figures on offer were promising; he finished at 110.6% of his own average last time, and his career peak speed is 42.4mph, both within the top 3 here. The ground was heavy at Ayr, so it's hard to look at recent figures too closely, but there is a lot to like about this son of Havana Grey now returned to Epsom.

James Doyle is riding at a strike rate of 18.6% over the last two weeks and notched an impressive winner yesterday at Group level on Humidity. Karl Burke is renowned for his 2 and 3yo's and he looks to have picked out a handy route for Naval Light here.

Spirit of Athene holds a Racing Rating of 7.5 ahead of the 17.17 at Goodwood.

Spirit of Athene is a lovely type for the Ed Walker yard; she's a 3-YO by Time Test, who sired 2026 Ribblesdale Stakes winner Earth Shot, amongst several other strong middle-distance types, and is out of the Dubawi line. Spirit of Athene has definitely improved on those metrics, but she'll need it today.

She ran a cracker at Leicester last time out, winning by over 2l and beating some useful types who have done the form no damage since, like Gaspacho, who was placed in a £100,000 handicap at York this weekend. A 5lb rise will be a challenge, but I believe she is still better than that mark; her stride length and career consistency metrics support that.

I always am really surprised whenever Cherki is left out of the starting eleven, City have a lot of talented attacking players but he’s the one who really makes things happen - even if he doesn’t quite have the work rate of some other players in the squad.

Cherki has registered five goal contributions across just four starts in the Premier League this season, matching the output of Haaland and Semenyo despite not getting the same minutes in the early weeks of Maresca’s tenure at the club.

Cherki enjoyed a really positive international break too, registering a goal contribution in three of the four matches despite only starting two of these games. He’s made for big games too, many of you will remember the wonderful he scored against Arsenal earlier this year and the Anfield atmosphere won’t affect him too much.

Cherki registered 16 goal contributions across just 19 starts in the Premier League last season, with 12 of these being assists. I think he’ll be one of the City players that is pretty unaffected by the recent news, and be able to cause Liverpool problems.

I was not surprised at all to see Enzo Fernandez as the shortest player with most bookmakers to pick up a card in what should be a really intense game.

Fernandez hasn’t been at City very long, but has still managed to become a fan favourite and the main reason for that is his passion.

He’ll relish being part of a side that everyone hates, and you’ll see that in his general demeanour on the pitch.

Fernandez picked up his first caution in a City shirt in another recent high profile game as City came away 1-0 winners over Manchester United, despite dropping down to 10 men.

It definitely won’t be the last caution that Fernandez picks up for City seeing as he collected 10 yellow cards across his 35 starts in the Premier League for Chelsea last season, averaging 1.04 fouls committed per 90.

This is a really nice price for Mac Allister to pick up a card at Anfield on Sunday, I’d consider taking it as a single as well with how well suited Mac Allister is to Andoni Iraola’s ideal style of play.

Iraola wants to play with intensity, which is something that Liverpool lacked last season - especially in midfield. Trying to fit Mac Allister, Gravenberch, Wirtz and Szoboszlai all into the same midfield is simply not going to work and Iraola has realised that with Gravenberch being the player to drop out.

I personally think that Wirtz should be the one to make way, but it leaves Liverpool with Mac Allister and Szoboszlai to cover a lot of ground and get stuck in. Mac Allister has picked up one yellow card already this season, with that coming against Ipswich - he also collected a caution against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League.

Zarak Crown holds a Racing Rating of 7.8 ahead of the 14:57 at Goodwood.

This 2-Yo represents a profile I love to back in these kinds of races, he is a lightly raced 2-YO making his handicap debut coming off two strong novice runs. He looks relatively unexposed off a mark of 79, as he is also stepped up in trip ahead of this contest.

His debut form, whilst he may have a distant 4th, has been franked emphatically, with Burning Up going on to finish 2nd in the Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) and his recent win has seen the 5th place now rated 78, whom he beat by nearly 4l. The 6th place has also run since, finishing 2nd in a Class 3 contest at Salisbury.

Zarak Crown's breeding suggests he should have no difficulty handling this extra furlong and he looks like the one to beat on handicap debut for James Doyle.

Spirit of Athene holds a Racing Rating of 7.5 ahead of the 17.17 at Goodwood.

Spirit of Athene is a lovely type for the Ed Walker yard; she's a 3-YO by Time Test, who sired 2026 Ribblesdale Stakes winner Earth Shot, amongst several other strong middle-distance types, and is out of the Dubawi line. Spirit of Athene has definitely improved on those metrics, but she'll need it today.

She ran a cracker at Leicester last time out, winning by over 2l and beating some useful types who have done the form no damage since, like Gaspacho, who was placed in a £100,000 handicap at York this weekend. A 5lb rise will be a challenge, but I believe she is still better than that mark; her stride length and career consistency metrics support that.

BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals

Games between these two are always entertaining, and I’d be surprised if this one disappointed. In fact, in the last 20 games between these two sides stretching back to 2019, 15 have seen both teams score.

City have scored the second most goals in the league this season, averaging 2.6 per game. Three of their five league games have produced over 2.5 goals, while even in their 1-0 win against Coventry, they produced 2.12 xG.

As for Liverpool, whilst their averages are lower than City’s, four of their seven games in all competitions have seen over 2.5 goals.

I’d be really surprised if this wasn’t a high-scoring game. Liverpool are still yet to win at home in the league, so will be wanting to start strongly and get the fans onside. City, on the other hand, need to perform to put the spotlight back on the club on the pitch rather than off it. I think this stinks of a Both Teams to Score game.

Each Team 2+ Cards

There’s going to be a bit of extra needle in this one after the news that was leaked last week, and both sets of fans will be well up for this one, which should only heighten the tensions.

Liverpool have registered two or more cards in four of their five Premier League games this season, averaging 2.4 cards per game, with their matches averaging 4.40 cards in total.

City, on the other hand, haven’t actually picked up loads so far. They are averaging 1.6 cards per game this season, however, interestingly, that rises to 3.00 away from home.

Given the added animosity here, emotions should be high, and I’d expect City to hold up their end of the bargain.

Each Team 4+ Corners

City have had four or more corners in every league game so far, averaging 6.20 per match.

Even in games where they haven’t overly dominated, like United away, they still registered seven corners.

Interestingly, Liverpool’s averages are slightly lower, but they are still averaging 4.00 corners per home game. They have also allowed their opponents an average of 6.50 corners per home game.

With City consistently landing this, and Liverpool averaging exactly four at home, I think this is a solid selection.

The Colts come into this road game off the back of a trip to London, while Pittsburgh has had a semi-bye week having playing on Thursday.

The handicap being 2.5 makes this bet attractive, particularly when you consider the Steelers' 17-2 all-time record vs. the Colts in Pittsburgh. The Colts rank 30th in the NFL on opponent yards per game with 392.3 (Pittsburgh ranks 13th with 322.3) with Pittsburgh 17th in yards per game (317.8) compared to Indianapolis' 26th (284.3 yards per game).

The Colts may score more (25.5 PPG vs. 19.3) but the Steelers concede fewer (21.8 OPP PPG vs. 26.0). Indianapolis also has the habit of giving up big plays. So based on the circumstances and Pittsburgh's home field advantage, I'll take the Steelers here

Both sides are 0-4, but the Texans are coming into this game after their strongest performance of the season so far, having narrowly lost 30-34 to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4.

Indeed, they were leading 16-6 at halftime, scuppered by a late-game collapse. C.J. Stroud threw for 347 yards and 2 TDs, while the Texans moved the ball well in general. Their defensive issues prevail (joint-27th in OPP PPG with 27.3 and 20th in opponent yards per game with 343.8) but Tennessee ranks 2nd-bottom on PPG at 13.8 and bottom in yards per game (261.3).

Following their good showing against the Cowboys, expect the Texans to continue this momentum against a poor Tennessee side. There are concerns about crossing 7 - maybe go -6.5 as a safer option in this accumulator - but I'm confident enough to back the -7.5

The Browns have won all of their last 3, while the Jets have lost all of their last 3. Their last 2 defeats have been by 7-point (31-24 vs. Detroit) and 11-point (23-12 vs. Chicago) margins too, while against the Bears, they managed a measly 157.0 offensive yards.

The Browns' recent run of form has been off the back of their strong defense and they shouldn't be troubled too much by a Jets side that ranks 25th in the NFL on yards per game with an average of 286.0.

There are clouds for Cleveland though, with Mason Graham (MCL, ankle) and Mike Hall Jr. (ankle) likely to be out through injury. Despite this, the Jets offense has failed to convince, so I'm still fancying the Browns

The Raiders are the 7th highest scorers in the NFL this season, averaging 28.8 PPG. Their lowest scoring game so far this season was 26, when they defeated the Chargers 14-26 in Week 2.

In addition, Raiders QB Kirk Cousins has thrown for 11 TD passes over the 4 games so far. In contrast, the Patriots are not high scorers (ranking 30th in the NFL with an average of 16.3 PPG) but have been kickstarted into life, having scored 29 points in their 26-29 victory over the Bills last week.

Drake Maye seems to have returned to form too, throwing for 269 yards and 3 TDs. With the Raiders 31st in the NFL on opponent yards per rush attempt (5.2), the Patriots could also utilise their rushing game too (they sit 11th with an average of 117.8 rushing yards per game). All this points to the Over

Everything Parrott touches turns to gold right now. He was exceptional over the break for Ireland and returns to domestic action having got two goals and an assist in his last three for Betis.

He netted in three of four games over the break, including a brace against Austria.

Parrot managed 20 G/A for Alkmaar last season in just 29 games.

Betis are heavy favourites here and I’m backing them to win (spoiler for the next selection). If Betis play to their potential, the Irishman will be involved.

This feels like one of those moments in a players’ career where they really explode on a larger stage. Having netted the winner at home against Madrid and assisted the winner against Getafe, the stage is set for another big performance.

Real Betis are such a hard team to beat when they’re in front of their own fans and have won each of their three home games at the start of this campaign.

They’ve won these games without conceding a goal too, being the only side in LaLiga to keep a clean sheet in each of their three opening home matches. Their scoring power could be better from these games, but the overall control is worth factoring in to any angle in this game.

Osasuna have struggled on the road in LaLiga so far this season, winning just one of their three away matches. They’ve conceded 10 goals across these games (3.33 per game) - which is the third highest tally in LaLiga for sides when travelling away from home.

Betis beat Osasuna 2-0 in this fixture last season, and I can see a similar sort of scoreline playing out here with how both sides have started the season. I can’t see Osasuna being able to find a way past this stubborn Betis backline, and even if they do - it’s likely that they are outscored with their poor defensive record on the road. 

Another pro Betis selection here and one that has landed in all three of their home matches so far. They’ve averaged 4.67 corners per match on their own turf.

Osasuna have conceded plenty too, they’ve conceded an average of 4.57 and have allowed their opponents four or more in 86% of matches this season.

These numbers rise in away games. They’ve conceded 17 in three matches on their travels, an average of 5.67 per match.

This selection has been a winner against Osasuna in each of their away games this season.

Betis had 75% of the ball in their last home La Liga match, so forcing four corners shouldn’t be an issue.

The evergreen Croatian has started well yet again this season and has five goals in seven matches. Given that Osasuna have scored eight goals, it’s pretty obvious how crucial he is and Betis need to stop him to keep the visitors at bay.

That threat is clear to other sides and he’s been handled firmly so far this season.

Budimir has drawn a huge average of 2.86 ghouls per 90 and his 16 fouls drawn is double that of the next highest Osasuna player.

Budimir has been fouled in all of his appearances so far this season, even when coming off the bench. In-fact, when he’s started, he’s drawn at least two fouls in every game - so we should be safe with one here.

Every Juventus game I tip on, I keep coming back to fouls for the Portuguese winger, I’m surprised his odds haven’t shortened further when you look at some of the other prices available.

Conceicao has averaged a massive 2.75 fouls per 90 minutes in Serie A this season. He’s made at least two fouls in three of his five league games so far.

Including racking up four against both Parma and Frosinone.

He is very aggressive in his desire to get the ball back and will hunt down his opposite number to try and turn over the ball as quickly as possible.

He was also sent off in the international break for Portugal.

Of course, the wide man is also a threat going forward. He’s averaged 1.25 shots on target per 90 minutes and his five shots on target is the most in the Juve squad.

He’s had one or more in four out of five Serie A matches so far this season.

Against Inter, Cagliari conceded seven shots on target and they’ve conceded an average of 4.20 per 90 minutes.

Juventus can be frustrating at times but they have only been beaten once so far and produced an excellent 2-0 win against Atalanta before the break and also a drubbing of NEC in Europe.

The Frenchman can be an incredibly frustrating watch, as Juve fans are finding out. One thing he does do well at though, is winning fouls.

He’s been fouled eight times so far this season, the most of any Juve player, working out at an average of 1.60 times per 90 minutes.

He’s been fouled at least once in four out of five games this season. He’s also one of the more nailed on players for good minutes, as he’s played 90 in every game bar one; in which he played 88 minutes.

The young midfielder, on-loan from Roma, has had an excellent start to the season and earned himself game-time for Italy in the international break.

Romano has been racking up plenty of shots and the price here looks generous, especially with some of the space that Juve give up in midfield.

He’s had seven shots so far, an average of 1.42 per 90 minutes and the third most in the Cagliari squad.

He’s had at least one shot in every single game this season and also managed one in both of his starts for Italy during the break.

Heading into the weekend, no side has conceded more shots than Newcastle, they’ve conceded 97 shots in five games - 10 more than the next weakest team for that metric.

They’ve conceded that many shots against sides, heading into the weekend, sitting 6th, 20th, 17th, 5th and 8th, so it doesn’t appear that they’ve had a particularly challenging fixture list so far.

They’ve conceded 19.40 shots per game on average, comfortably landing this bet in each match by giving up 27. 17, 17, 15 and 22 shots.

If you take out their opening night trip to reigning champions Arsenal, Coventry are at 11.75 shots per game, so they’d only need to improve on that by just over one shot to land this bet, when they’re at home to the worst defence at limiting opposition shots.

Newcastle had way more players called up for international duty than Coventry, so they’re dealing with more disruption than their hosts ahead of this fixture as well.

Deep Havana holds a Racing Rating of 7.2 ahead of the 15:32 at Goodwood.

Wathan Racing strike at 18% here at Goodwood, and Hamad Al Jehani at 22% with his sprinters. Connections look strong for this one, and he is well drawn for this contest. I think he will be able to make use of the positive draw, and take this contest from the front, where he should be relatively unchallenged for the lead, with the field lacking front-runners bar his stablemate.

Deep Havana's loss in the Silver Cup at Ayr when sent off favourite can easily be excused, the ground was absolutely bottomless that day and he clearly didn't handle it. He was shaping very progressively before that run, with an impressive win at Thirsk in August, his trainer is in form and I believe he will run a big race here.

Haas Boy holds a Racing Rating of 7.2 ahead of the 16:22 at Chepstow.

Haas Boy looks like a good price at 17/2 here, especially since he landed a handicap off this exact mark at Ascot on his last run. This is his ideal trip, he looks well treated and most importantly, he enjoys running fresh. He won on his seasonal debut at Newcastle last year, and after over 6 months off, he looks ready to make an impression here.

Lorcan Williams, 2024 Champion Hurdle-winning jockey, takes the ride, and his strike rate around here is very solid, winning at 15.5% and is +£14.20 to a level stake over the last 5 years. Trainer Chester Williams does not often run them around here, but when he does, they win. Three runners at Chepstow in the last five years, two winners.

Naval Light is Sunday's Racing Ratings NAP, with a perfect 10.0.

Naval Light was an impressive winner at the Ayr Gold Cup festival last time out, landing a Class 2 handicap off a mark of 87. He runs off 93 today, and last time out was his first run over 1m, so 93 may still be within the scope of this 3-year-old's progression.

The speed figures on offer were promising; he finished at 110.6% of his own average last time, and his career peak speed is 42.4mph, both within the top 3 here. The ground was heavy at Ayr, so it's hard to look at recent figures too closely, but there is a lot to like about this son of Havana Grey now returned to Epsom.

James Doyle is riding at a strike rate of 18.6% over the last two weeks and notched an impressive winner yesterday at Group level on Humidity. Karl Burke is renowned for his 2 and 3yo's and he looks to have picked out a handy route for Naval Light here.

Spirit of Athene holds a Racing Rating of 7.5 ahead of the 17.17 at Goodwood.

Spirit of Athene is a lovely type for the Ed Walker yard; she's a 3-YO by Time Test, who sired 2026 Ribblesdale Stakes winner Earth Shot, amongst several other strong middle-distance types, and is out of the Dubawi line. Spirit of Athene has definitely improved on those metrics, but she'll need it today.

She ran a cracker at Leicester last time out, winning by over 2l and beating some useful types who have done the form no damage since, like Gaspacho, who was placed in a £100,000 handicap at York this weekend. A 5lb rise will be a challenge, but I believe she is still better than that mark; her stride length and career consistency metrics support that.