Pedri has faced up against Newcastle twice this season, and has drawn seven fouls across those two meetings. He was fouled four times in the 1-1 draw between the sides last week, and should continue to be an influential player for the home side here.

One of the main reasons why Pedri invites challenges is how much control he is able to have over games. Everyone was raving about him after his display at St James’ Park earlier in the season, with that performance being the usual standard that Pedri sets for Barcelona.

Pedri has drawn 16 fouls across his six starts in the Champions League this season, working out to an average of 3.06 fouls won per 90. This average sits at 1.91 fouls won per 90 in LaLiga too, so Pedri has been pretty consistent when it comes to drawing fouls across various competitions.

I always like backing a player for fouls when I know that they will be on the ball constantly. Pedri is averaging just shy of 93 touches per game in the Champions League - so there should be plenty of opportunities for him to be dragged down here.

This selection has landed in both of the head-to-head meetings between the sides this season, with Barcelona committing nine fouls at St James’ Park last week and 12 when the sides clashed in the league phase.

Barcelona aren’t known for high foul numbers, but still sit at an average of 10.1 fouls committed per game in the Champions League - which is a slight increase on their numbers in LaLiga this term. Hansi Flick’s side play with plenty of risk, which can sometimes leads to them needing to make challenges to stop the direct threat to their goal.

Newcastle have drawn 9+ fouls from their opponents in eight of their 10 Champions League matches this season. Eddie Howe’s side have also drawn 9+ fouls in 24 of their 30 matches in the Premier League this season (80%), so this is also a pretty strong part of Newcastle’s game, which can help Barcelona cover the fouls line here.

Barcelona v Newcastle is a match that promises goals. The context, for one thing, points to an exciting, high-scoring game. Last season’s 14 Champions League second legs from the round of 16 onwards produced over 2.5 goals on 11 occasions.

On top of this, there’s the remarkable statistic that every single Barcelona home game across all competitions this season, with the exception of a 2-0 win over Osasuna, has produced at least three goals. In each of their last seven outings at Camp Nou, Barca have scored at least three themselves, including in the weekend’s 5-2 win over Sevilla.

Newcastle have not been shy of goals themselves. Prior to Saturday’s 1-0 win over Chelsea, the Magpies had been involved in six successive away days that had three or more goals. Meanwhile, 8/11 Newcastle UCL games this term have covered this bet.

The head-to-head also points to an exciting game. The two games between the clubs this season have seen 5.48 xG from a total of 54 shots.

Fresh from branding Wayne Rooney and Alan Shearer “stupid” over his role as a substitute due to illness last week, Anthony Gordon is a man with a point to prove. He did so at Chelsea as he scored the only goal of the game – his second goal in as many starts.

While the 25-year-old is threatening to put an end to his disappointing Premier League season, he’s been one of Newcastle’s most eye-catching players in the Champions League this term, with 1.83 shots on target per 90, the highest among Eddie Howe’s players.

Of course, this has been inflated by the six shots he mustered against Qarabag in the last round, scoring four times, but this has been typical of his recent form. He has had a shot on target in seven of his last eight starts for the Toon. Away from him, he’s not shown any signs of allowing that figure to dip, with at least one shot on target in Newcastle’s last six.

Barcelona won’t faze him either. He’s consistently put up good shooting numbers against the bigger clubs: in recent away games, he managed three shots on target against Chelsea, two against Manchester City and two against Liverpool. He even managed a shot on target coming off the bench away to PSG in the group stage, so there’s little doubt he’s a man in form.

Atletico Madrid raced into a 3-0 lead in the first 15 minutes at the Metropolitano, landing this selection with ease. All three of their goals were gifts - Antonin Kinsky was responsible for two goals, and Micky Van de Ven’s slip made life easy for Antoine Griezmann to score another. Atletico Madrid took their foot off the gas once they were in such a commanding position, but still managed to add another two goals. 

Pedro Porro and Dominic Solanke were able to find the back of the net for the visitors, capping off a seven-goal thriller. The game was more even than the scoreline suggests, as Tottenham still managed 11 shots worth 1.99 xG. 

Spurs will have to be front-footed in their approach here, but that could make for an open contest with chances available at both ends. Julian Alvarez was able to cause problems on the break, and he should be looking forward to this matchup in particular. 

Alvarez owes a lot of credit to Jan Oblak for his second goal of the game - the Slovenian international denied Richarlison from scoring a header, and then immediately started the counter-attack, which was finished off by Alvarez. Oblak was forced into three saves in the first leg, and he has been kept busy in the Champions League this campaign. 

Oblak is averaging 3.27 saves in the competition so far, and he has already landed this selection against Liverpool at Anfield, and Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium. 

Meanwhile, Spurs are drawing exactly 3.0 saves per game in the Champions League this season, and this selection has landed in each of their last four European outings. Spurs are likely to throw the kitchen sink at Atletico Madrid, which means shots from distance and hopeful crosses into the box, which could allow Oblak to rack up some simple stops. 

Atletico Madrid were very recently in a very similar situation to this clash, as they took a 4-0 lead to the Camp Nou for the Copa del Rey semi-final second leg. The Catalans dominated that fixture, and were able to pull the scores back to 4-3, but Atletico were relieved to hold on in the end - they fell to their knees in celebration at the full time whistle, despite losing the game 3-0. 

Marc Bernal bagged himself a brace for the Catalans, and he found plenty of success in the final third. The defensive midfielder often looked to crash into the box, and try his luck from distance. Bernal had five shots, with four on target, and two of those found the back of the net. Pape Sarr will have a similar role as Bernal here, and he registered two shots in the first leg. 

Marc Pubill has been a regular in the big games for Atletico Madrid this season, and he was deployed in a slightly less familiar role at right back in the first leg. Pubill recorded one infringement a week ago, taking his average to 1.1 fouls per 90 across all competitions. 

That figure rises notably to 1.68 fouls per 90 when playing away, where he has landed this selection in all 10 appearances this season. He has accrued multiple infringements in four of those matches, and has been carded twice in that stretch. 

Pubill registered one foul in that Copa del Rey second leg at the Nou Camp, despite his side sitting deep. In fact, his one foul resulted in a penalty for the Catalans, which was converted by Raphinha. He can be a bit rash at times, but isn’t one to opt out of a strong challenge. 

Victor Osimhen’s ability to get shots away is arguably unmatched when compared to other strikers across Europe. Galatasaray had 15 shots in the first leg meeting between the sides last week, with six of those coming from Victor Osimhen, and one of those efforts finding the target.

Osimhen achieved that shot tally from just 25 touches in the first leg, showing how effective he can be even when he isn’t massively involved in build-up play. Osimhen has netted seven goals across his nine starts in the Champions League this season from 41 shots (4.64 per 90), seeing 25 of those efforts find the target (2.83 per 90).

Furthermore, Osimhen scored from the penalty spot when the sides met in the league phase of the Champions League earlier in the season. He had four shots in that game overall, with three of those efforts finding the target. 

Alisson was replaced just before the hour mark in the first leg meeting between the sides last week, but not before having to make three saves in his 56 minutes of action in Turkiye. 

Alisson was fit enough to start over the weekend in Liverpool’s 1-1 draw with Tottenham, so he should start in this fixture. Alisson was tested six times by Tottenham in Liverpool’s disappointing draw with Igor Tudor’s side, suggesting that he doesn’t have that much protection in front of him at the moment.

Alisson has been forced into making 12 saves across his five starts in the Champions League this term, working out to an average of 2.60 saves per 90. He’s maintained a save percentage of 80% across those games, suggesting that he is still a reliable goalkeeper - and one who can bail Liverpool out on at least two occasions. 

The context surrounding this tie lends itself to a high-scoring encounter, with Liverpool needing to score at least twice here to have a chance of progressing through to the next stage. Liverpool have seen 17 goals across their four home games in the Champions League this season (4.25 per game), winning three of those games.

Three of Liverpool’s four home games in the Champions League have produced 3+ goals, with the exception of their 1-0 win over Real Madrid, in which Liverpool should have scored at least one more goal, with the Reds having a personal xG of 2.51 in that clash. Liverpool are relying on success in the Champions League to make this a decent season, so Arne Slot is likely to focus on this game and field a strong lineup.

This also explains why he rotated the side for their 1-1 draw against Tottenham over the weekend, leaving out the likes of Mohamed Salah, Hugo Ekitike and Ibrahima Konate for that clash. I think context wins here, and Liverpool will be forced to come out and go for an aggressive victory - leading to a clash that sees chances at both ends and at least three goals in the encounter.

Liverpool really struggled to contain their discipline in their 1-0 defeat to Galatasaray last week, committing 18 fouls and picking up four yellow cards. 

This isn’t the first time that Liverpool have struggled to keep their composure against the Turkish side either, with the league phase meeting seeing Liverpool commit 14 fouls and pick up three yellow cards.

The urgency of this second leg meeting should bring out even more frustration and aggression from Liverpool, who are chasing the tie and need to score at least twice to book their spot in the quarter-finals of the competition.

Liverpool have picked up 12 yellow cards across their nine matches in the Champions League this season (1.33 per game), but we are likely to see a rise in that metric here when considering Liverpool’s card and foul record in each of the two head-to-head meetings between the sides this season.