I’m amazed you can get 1.80 on this, it’s won in seven of Middlesbrough’s last eight games.

It's Boro to have over 12.5 shots in the second leg of their play-off semi-final at Southampton.

It's 0-0 on aggregate, and Boro had 21 shots in the first leg. They can have eight less shots and we'd still win the bet.

The odds are saying that there's a 56% chance that it wins. But it's won in 88% of Boro's last eight games - so I'd argue that's value.

It's also won in 13 of their last 18 away from home.

Boro average over 16 shots per game this season, only Coventry averaged more.

Southampton have conceded at least 16 shots in each of their last three games, we only need 13 for the bet.

Tommy Conway had the pick of the chances for Middlesbrough in the first leg, and he was the one who struck the woodwork for his side. He was completely open in the box, but his effort only struck the inside of the post - he probably should have done better in the end, and Conway will know that. He had another big chance which was blocked, while his other two attempts managed to find the target, so he will feel his performance warranted a goal.

The striker tends to pop up in promising positions in and around the box, and he has scored 13 league goals this season from 46 appearances. He ended the regular season on a high, scoring against Wrexham on the final day, after bagging a brace against Watford, so he is a player full of confidence at the moment. 

Flynn Downes returned from his three-match suspension for the first leg of the playoff semi-final, and he wasted no time in making his presence felt. The midfielder recorded two fouls and was carded during that match, before being replaced after 69 minutes, which shows how difficult it was for Middlesbrough in midfield areas. Downes partnered Caspar Jander in the double pivot, who also finished the game with three fouls.

Downes is averaging 1.93 fouls per 90 in the Championship this season, which is one of the highest figures in the Southampton squad, and he has been booked 13 times from his 37 league appearances. He is a very combative player in the heart of midfield, and Downes should find duels against Aidan Morris again here - the USA international was fouled three times in the first leg, taking his average to 2.62 fouls draw per 90 for the season.

The first leg ended as a goalless stalemate, which is unexpected given how attack-minded both sides have been throughout the season. Middlesbrough were the dominant side at the Riverside Stadium, registering a total of 21 shots and six big chances worth 1.81 xG, but they were wasteful in the final third. With that being said, Boro did come incredibly close, and they were denied by the woodwork. Southampton had to dig in at times, but the Saints improved after the break and came close to stealing an advantage themselves late on - this time Taylor Harwood-Bellis hit the crossbar. 

Southampton should be much more front-footed at St Mary's here, which makes goals a target. Tonda Eckert's men have been one of the most prolific attacking sides in the Championship this season, with 82 league goals from their 46 regular season matches. Over 2.5 goals has also landed in nine of Middlesbrough’s last ten away matches. 

There were 12 corners in the first leg, and Middlesbrough landed this selection on their own by contributing 11 of those. Southampton only added one to the tally, but they should be much more progressive on home turf here, especially considering there is still everything to play for. 

Southampton are averaging 5.64 corners per game in the league this season, rising to 6.26 at St Mary's, where they usually play with a lot more attacking intent. In fact, they recorded six corners against Middlesbrough when these sides met on the south coast back in September. 

Middlesbrough are averaging an impressive 6.91 per game in the league, which is the highest figures in the league. They both like to utilise width when they attack, and with the tie still hanging firmly in the balance, corners are a target once again.

Morgan Whittaker was really bright in the 0-0 draw between the sides last season, creating three chances and taking on three efforts. Boro as a whole struggled to convert any of the chances they created (21), though Whittaker is certainly the most likely Boro player to register a goal contribution given his strong seasonal numbers.

Whittaker netted twice in the most recent league meeting between these sides, which Boro won 4-0 with 22 shots and an xG of 2.27, accounting for two of the 14 goals he’s scored in the Championship this season. No Boro player has netted more goals than Whittaker in the Championship this season, and he also sits joint top of the assist charts with seven to his name - level with Hayden Hackney, who is a doubt for this fixture.

Whitaker’s total haul sits at 20 goal contributions across his 35 starts in the Championship, only Oli McBurnie (24) and Zan Vipotnik (26) have registered more goal contributions in the Championship this term than Whittaker, making him an obvious threat in this second leg.

Only Matt Crooks (13) has picked up more yellow cards in the Championship this season than Flynn Downes (12). He’s always been quite an aggressive player, as further shown by the 12 cards he picked up across just 25 starts in the Premier League for Southampton last season.

Downes has been cautioned in each of his last three Championship games, including picking up a yellow card in the first leg meeting between these sides last week which ended 0-0. Downes committed two fouls in that game and struggled with Aidan Morris in particular - who was fouled three times in the encounter.

Southampton committed 12 fouls in the first leg, matching that amount in the most recent league meeting between the sides. Downes was fortunate to avoid a caution in that game, committing two fouls overall, while Southampton picked up four cards in total, suggesting that the Saints could struggle with the clever movement of this Boro side again in this second leg clash.

No Middlesbrough player has picked up more yellow cards in the Championship this season than Luke Ayling (10). His experience has been vital to Kim Hellberg’s side this season as he showed in the first leg where he was arguably one of Boro’s best players.

He was actually fouled four times in that game, committing one himself, but our focus is on Ayling to pick up a caution here. His experience does lead him to be more frustrated than most in the Boro squad as he’s been in this position quite a few times before, and knows the effect it can have on a squad if they miss out after all the hard work across the season.

Ayling has picked up 13% of the total cards that Boro have collected in the Championship this term, which is a pretty significant total. He’ll have to try and manage the threat of Leo Scienza, one of the strongest players in the Championship when it comes to winning fouls (3.65 per 90). 

Lens midfielder has had 2+ shots in 7 of last 8 and 3+ shots in 6 of last 7.

Averages 2.06 shots per 90 in Ligue 1 this season – 4th among Lens players with 900+ minutes.

Comes into the game fresh after being suspended at the weekend.

PSG could well rotate, meaning that they are not as strong as usual in the middle of the park.

Kvaratskhelia has had 2+ shots in his last 7 starts for PSG.

Across his last 621 minutes for the Parisians, he has had 18 shots on target – 2.61 per 90.

Season average of 1.87 shots on target per 90 in Ligue 1 is the highest at the club.

Bradley Barcola his likely replacement if subbed off. He has 1.54 shots on target per 90.

4 of Hearts’ last 5 Scottish Premiership matches have featured over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in each of their last 3 victories - and we could see a repeat of that here when they face an attack-minded Falkirk side. 6 of the Bairns’ last 8 league matches have featured over 2.5 goals, including a 6-3 defeat to Rangers as well as 3-1 losses to both Celtic and Hibernian.

There have been goals at both ends in 6 of Motherwell's last 8 Scottish Premiership matches, the most recent of which was their 1-1 draw with Hearts on Saturday night. Meanwhile, BTTS has landed in 10 of Celtic's last 12 matches following their 3-1 win over Rangers on Sunday. It's also worth noting that Motherwell have scored in each of their previous 3 meetings against Celtic this season, with both teams scoring in 2 of those contests.

Maeda has come into form at the perfect point in the season and has netted in each of his last four matches for Celtic.

Maeda scored twice against Rangers last time out, including a brilliant overhead kick to secure a 3-1 victory.

Only Benjamin Nygren (15) has scored more goals for Celtic in the Scottish Premiership than Maeda (12).

All 12 of Maeda’s goals in the Scottish top flight have come from open play.

Celtic have scored at least two goals in each of their last four matches, scoring 3+ goals in three of these games.

Callum Slattery has picked up more yellow cards than any other Motherwell player this season (7).

Slattery has been cautioned in two of his last five appearances for Motherwell, including picking up a card in Motherwell’s 3-2 win over Rangers recently.

Slattery will be up against Nygren (1.51 fouls won per 90) and Engles (0.93 fouls won per 90). Slattery is averaging 1.53 fouls per 90 across his 24 starts in the Scottish Premiership this season.

Celtic have drawn 2+ cards from their opponents in each of their last five matches in the Scottish Premiership.

Shankland netted a crucial equaliser for Hearts against Motherwell last time out to keep their title hopes alive with Celtic in close pursuit.

No Hearts player has scored more goals in the Scottish Premiership this season than Shankland (15).

Only Motherwell’s Tawanda Maswanhise can better Shankland’s goal tally across the league as a whole (17).

Shankland has scored in four of his last five matches for Hearts, and is only one goal away from doubling his output in the top flight from last season. 

Only St Mirren’s Alex Gogic (12) has picked up more cautions in the Scottish Premiership this season than Brad Spencer (11).

Spencer committed one foul and was shown a yellow card when these sides met earlier in the season, with Falkirk committing 10 fouls in that game and collecting three cards overall.

Only four sides have picked up more cards than Falkirk (77) in the Scottish Premiership this season.

Spencer is likely to brush shoulders with Claudio Braga (1.67 fouls won per 90) and Beni Baningime (1.40 fouls won per 90).

Goals are never too far away in City games, and they’ve provided plenty of entertainment recently. Their firepower and quality gives them a good chance of covering this line in most games they play. Of course, that has been shown by them netting three in each of their last two games.

City’s matches have averaged 2.97 goals and their 63% strike rate for over 2.5 goals is the third highest in the division.

At home, that rises to 3.12 and a whopping 71%. In-fact, every City home game has had a minimum of two goals.

After a slow period, Haaland is flying again too with seven in six since the beginning of April.

Palace haven’t been the most entertaining across the season, but their numbers do increase nicely on the road where their games have averaged 2.53 goals, with 59% seeing three or more.

Four of their last five Premier League games have seen three or more match goals, and eight of their last nine in all comps.

Of course, you’d expect City to have the majority of this game but they’re far from untouchable. We saw them ship three to Everton, and both West Ham and Forest have penetrated their defence in recent weeks.

Both Everton and Brentford forced Gianluigi Donnarumma into at least two saves and 20 of City’s 32 games have seen this selection land, which is perhaps higher than you might’ve thought.

One of those 20 includes the reverse fixture with Palace. Despite winning at a canter, Palace forced four saves out of the man between the sticks.

Palace have also forced two or more saves from their opponents goalkeeper in four of their last five matches in all comps.

Palace do have the Conference League final to keep an eye on, but I’d still expect them to start a strong side here - as they did against Everton at the weekend. 

Pep has mentioned that he may have to rotate his side with their own cup final on the horizon so there is some potential vulnerabilities in the line-up.

The Japanese midfielder had a tough start to life at Palace, but has cemented himself as first choice in the pivot alongside Adam Wharton.

Kamada is excellent at drawing fouls. He’s drawn an average of 1.38 per 90. The highest of any player in the starting line-up for Palace, except Ismaila Sarr; who is priced much shorter.

Kamada is key to escaping the press. He draws fouls because of his ability to turn quickly and progress the ball from deep areas, allowing Palace to escape danger and launch counter attacks.

City can get sucked into some high foul counts against sides lower in the division. They committed 16 against Wolves, 12 against Burnley and Chelsea and 14 against Newcastle.

Palace have drawn 10+ fouls in eight of their last 10 matches in all comps.

The fouls City commit also often come from central players - Silva, Reijnders and Rodri rank in a decent spot for average fouls committed per 90 and Nico O’Reilly, who occupies central areas regularly, averages 1.55 fouls per 90; the highest in the City squad besides Nico Gonzalez (1.77), who could feature as Pep mentioned rotation possibilities.

At times, Doku is incredibly frustrating. However, when he’s on it, he might be one of the most influential players in the league. His 1v1 ability, and potential to make something out of nothing make him a very dangerous opponent.

He’s been brilliant in recent matches, and comes in to this with four goals and two assists in his last four appearances.

He’s had a shot on target in five of his last six as well, including having two against both Everton and Brentford in his last two starts.

His raw pace and ability to shift the ball on to his favoured right-foot underpin his threat, and he’s only too happy to get a shot off from distance - which we’ve seen to devastating effect on numerous occasions.

Palace will be camped in at times as City dominate the ball, and Doku could land this selection in the blink of an eye.

BTTS landed the last time that Lens welcomed PSG, with Luis Enrique’s side coming away 2-1 winners in that game.

Lens have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, remaining unbeaten across these games.

PSG have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches, also remaining unbeaten across these games.

Lens boast the strongest home record in Ligue 1, and have netted 35 goals across their 16 home games (2.18 per game).

Lens must win to take the Ligue 1 title race to the final game of the season.

Stockport came away 1-0 winners in the first leg, striking in the 94th minute.

Stockport limited Stevenage to an xG of just 0.27 in the first leg meeting. 

Stockport avoided defeat in 17 of their 23 home matches during the League One season, netting 38 goals across these games.

Stevenage only managed to win seven of their 23 away matches in the regular season (30%), scoring just 22 goals across these games.

Hearts have avoided defeat in all 18 of their home matches in the Scottish Premiership, winning 14 of these games.

Hearts have avoided defeat in each of their last five matches in the Scottish Premiership, including victories over Rangers and Motherwell.

Falkirk have only managed to win one of their last five matches in the Scottish Premiership.

Hearts have avoided defeat in each of the last four head to head meetings between the sides, winning three of these games.

The most recent meeting between these sides produced four goals as Celtic came away 3-1 winners over Motherwell.

Celtic have seen 3+ goals in each of their last four matches, notably winning all of these games despite being unable to keep a clean sheet.

Motherwell have seen 3+ goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions, winning just one of these games.

Motherwell have scored 30 goals across their 18 home games in the Scottish Premiership this season (1.66 per game).

Celtic’s 18 away games in the Scottish Premiership have seen 51 goals (2.83 per game).