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This looks a great punt across tonight’s 8pm games, getting it Boosted to 14/1 from 7/1 feels massive, especially when you consider the stats behind it.

If we look at Europa League Matchday 1, the Thursday 8pm games produced an average of:

3.86 goals per game
9.14 corners per game

Even if you combine that across the Wednesday 8pms too, the average remains strong:

2.7 goals per game
10.0 corners per game

Matchday 2 backed up these trends too, showing this was no fluke. Across the Thursday 8pms, the 10 games averaged:

3.0 goals per game
10.1 corners per game

Looking at the full Matchday 2 fixture list, 16 of the 18 games produced at least two goals. The same number also recorded six or more corners, with the two games falling short still producing five corners each.

The numbers show there’s a consistent pattern across both matchdays, making the boosted price of 14/1 really appealing. Based on these stats, this looks to have plenty of potential, and should be great fun to track.

Beşiktaş have scored in every home game this season and are averaging an impressive 20 shots per match.

Their two Europa League wins have been pretty entertaining too, beating Marseille 4-1 at home and Hoffenheim 3-2 away, with 37 shots across those two games.

The problem is at the back. They haven't managed a clean sheet in their last five games and have allowed at least 10 shots in each of them.

Crystal Palace have the worst defence in the Premier League and conceded three goals to Lyon in their only Europa League away game so far.

Going forward, though, they've looked much better in Europe, scoring six goals in their first two games. They even managed more shots than Lyon in France.

Dušan Vlahović and Yéremy Pino have been in good form lately, with each scoring three goals in their last five games, and both are available.

That gives us even more reason to expect goals from both sides on Thursday.

It hasn’t been the best start for Bournemouth in the league so far, but they have fared much better in Europe.

They started with a 2-1 win over Real Sociedad, before securing a 3-0 victory over Sturm Graz last time out.

With six points from their opening two Europa League matches, the Cherries are battling near the top of the standings, and they will hope to maintain that positive record.

However, they face a tough test against a real European heavyweight.

AC Milan beat Atalanta 3-2 at the weekend, and they have only lost one game all season.

There isn’t much to split the two teams, and they both look strong going forward.

Hoffenheim just can't seem to keep the goals out. They haven't managed a single clean sheet in the Bundesliga or Europa League this season.

Things get even worse at home, where they've conceded three goals in three of their four games.

The good news is that they've also scored twice in every home game, meaning BTTS has landed in all of them.

Lyon have seen BTTS in four of their last five games and have already shown they can score away from home.

They beat Anderlecht 2-1 in the Europa League and also scored against Fenerbahçe and Sparta Praha in the Champions League qualifiers.

Hoffenheim are averaging 17 shots at home, but they're also allowing 15 per game and have an xGA of 1.93.

With Hoffenheim putting up such strong attacking numbers but struggling so much defensively, we could be in for another entertaining game with goals from both sides.

It hasn’t been the best start for Bournemouth in the league so far, but they have fared much better in Europe.

They started with a 2-1 win over Real Sociedad, before securing a 3-0 victory over Sturm Graz last time out.

With six points from their opening two Europa League matches, the Cherries are battling near the top of the standings, and they will hope to maintain that positive record.

However, they face a tough test against a real European heavyweight.

AC Milan beat Atalanta 3-2 at the weekend, and they have only lost one game all season.

There isn’t much to split the two teams, and they both look strong going forward.

Bournemouth have picked up 21 cards in seven Premier League matches - only Hull and Brentford have been shown more bookings this season.

That trend has continued for their midweek matches, as the Cherries were given three yellow cards against Sturm Graz in their last European outing, despite that being quite a comfortable 3-0 win.

Even against Real Sociedad in round one of the Europa League, Bournemouth picked up three yellow cards.

This matchup against AC Milan looks to be their toughest yet, so cards remain a target.

When the Rossoneri came up against Benfica in round one, the Portuguese side were shown five yellow cards.

AC Milan are not short of attacking talent that will cause problems for Bournemouth.

Alphadjo Cisse has adapted seamlessly since completing a move from Catanzo, and he bagged himself a hat-trick during Milan’s 4-0 win over Salzburg in their last European match.

Cisse had four shots in that game before being replaced after 60 minutes, and all of his efforts hit the target.

Cisse has only started five matches this season, but he already has five goals to his name.

He is clinical when chances fall to his feet, and his form at the moment could not be better.

Because of that, he is one to keep an eye on in the final third.

On the opposite side, Evanilson is the danger man for Bournemouth.

The Brazilian was a standout performer at the weekend as his side beat Sunderland 2-0.

Evanilson was brought down by Kevin Danso to get the centre back sent off, before then capitalising on an error to score in the second half.

That was Evanilson’s third goal in as many games - he also scored a wonderful looping header against Sturm Graz in his last European match. 

The Bournemouth striker is averaging 2.81 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has landed this selection in each of his last five starts.

Evanilson has contributed more than just goals for his side this season.

He is the one who leads the press from the front, and he is always looking to get on the ball to make life difficult for opposing centre backs.

In fact, he is averaging 2.32 fouls drawn per 90 this season, which is one of the highest figures in the squad.

He has won multiple fouls in seven of his nine starts overall, and Strahinja Pavlovic will be directly up against him on Thursday night. 

The Serbian international registered four fouls against Benfica in round one of the league phase, which earned him a booking.

He has landed this selection in five of his nine starts this campaign, but this is an ideal matchup to improve that hit rate.

You have to feel for Gerwyn Price.

He’s got to the final of the last two major competitions, losing on both occasions to Ross Smith and Luke Humphries.

Ross Smith was just in special form that weekend at the World Series, but Price will feel as though the final of the World Grand Prix got away from him against Humphries - he won the first three sets before letting Cool Hand back into the contest.

Despite those disappointments, Price reaching back to back finals shows the level he is playing at. 

He beat James Wade and Jonny Clayton, two of the best performers this year, on the way to the World Series Finals and also had a tough run to the finals of the World Grand Prix, which is slightly different as I think the format suits Price with how good he is on tops. 

Price has avoided a first round exit in each of his last eight competitions, and has probably been the third best player overall behind Humphries and Littler without having the success to show for it.

Rob Cross threatened a comeback earlier this year, but hasn’t really maintained those levels throughout the year. Price won the only meeting between the pair this year 11-5, Cross only averaged 93.82.

Gian van Veen set a new record on the European Tour over the weekend, averaging 120.24 as he dispatched Sebastien Bialecki in Maastricht in the first round.

He played pretty well in the next two games too, before losing to fellow Dutchman Danny Noppert in the semi finals.

I’ve long felt as though Gian van Veen has been playing within himself a bit this year, which may be linked to an illness he had back in February - but he has steadily improved as the season has progressed. 

There is always the slight jeopardy of an upset in these early rounds with the short format, but Van Veen has outperformed Andrew Gilding in nearly every single metric this season. 

The scoring phase of the game is a particular concern for Gilding here, his average sits around 92.68 for the season and he has failed to average above 90 in each of his last five games.

Gian van Veen should have more than enough quality to see off Gilding here, especially seeing as Gilding has gone out in the first round in three of his last four events - while van Veen attempts to defend his title in Dortmund.

This is a really good price for Tyler Adams to commit at least two fouls in this Europa League clash, as AC Milan travel to the Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth.

That’s a sentence I never thought I’d have to write, given where both of these clubs were even as recently as five years ago. 

Adams remains an important part of this Bournemouth side under Marco Rose, maintaining similar levels of aggression that we saw from him under Andoni Iraola.

He’s committed 12 fouls across just five starts in the Premier League this term (2.34 per 90), and committed a foul in both of his Europa League matches - committing two fouls inside just 63 minutes against Real Sociedad in the opening game.

Adams is a purely defensive minded player, he rarely enters the final third and this sees him contest plenty of duels in the middle of the park. 

He will have to keep an eye on quite a few players here, with Milan packing the midfield in Amorim’s 3-4-3 shape as the two just behind the striker stay quite narrow.

Adams committed 35 fouls across his 21 starts in the Premier League last season (1.77 per 90), showing a consistency to his game over a larger sample size. 

I’d watch out for his battle against Cisse, Rabiot and Musah here - they are three of the four most fouled Milan players in the squad across all competitions.

Celtic have scored in both Europa League matches this season, but that hasn’t been enough to earn them any points, as their defensive structure has let them down.

In fact, the Scottish side have conceded a total of seven goals in their two European outings against Benfica and Ferencvaros.

This is a matchup against another strong opponent, and Celtic are unlikely to keep Celta Vigo at bay.

The Spanish side have also been an entertaining side to watch in recent weeks, and they beat Alaves 2-1 at the weekend.

Prior to that, they suffered a 2-1 loss against Juventus.

Both sides are struggling near the bottom of the Europa League standings, so they will be front-footed and desperate for their first points on the board.

There is very little to split these two teams from pre-match odds, but it’s Celtic who hold home advantage.

They also beat Hearts 7-1 at the weekend in a commanding victory, which might just be the confidence booster they need.

The Scottish side are averaging an eye-catching 7.8 corners per game across all competitions this season, rising to 9.0 when playing at home. 

They have landed this selection in all seven matches at Celtic Park this campaign, including 11 corners against Ferencvaros in the Europa League.

The Scottish side are adept at getting to the byline, and they like to utilise width in their attacks, favouring crosses into the box.

Because of that, corners remain a target.

Camilo Duran has been Celtic’s most in-form player in recent weeks, and he will be crucial if his side are to get anything out of this match.

He scored in that 7-1 win at the weekend, but was unfortunate not to add to his tally.

Duran racked up five shots, all of which came from inside the box, and two hit the target.

The Colombia international also provided two assists, highlighting his influence in the final third. 

Duran bagged in successive matches against Benfica and Motherwell, respectively, and he managed multiple shots on target in both of those games as well.

He has five goals in nine league appearances this term, which is more than any other Celtic player.

In addition to his goalscoring output, Duran is averaging 1.89 fouls drawn per 90 this season across all competitions, and he was fouled five times in his last European outing against Benfica.

Duran often likes to drop deeper to get on the ball, and he carries it well.

The 24-year-old can be such a difficult player to contain, and Yoel Lago will be one of the Celta Vigo defenders responsible for restricting him. 

The Spanish centre back is averaging 1.9 fouls per 90 this season, which is one of the highest among regular starters in the Celta Vigo squad, and he has already picked up four bookings in nine appearances this campaign.

Ferran Jutgla is another player who likes to be aggressive in his duels, but Celta Vigo will be relying on him to make a difference in the final third.

The 27-year-old has featured predominantly as the central striker for Celta Vigo this season, but he can also play out wide. Jutgla has landed this selection in five of his last six starts across all competitions. He even managed to find the back of the net against Alaves last time out, so he should come into this clash full of confidence. 

That was just his second goal of the campaign, but Jutgla has earned a reputation for being clinical in the final third. Last season, he managed ten goals in his first season at Celta Vigo, and this looks like a favourable matchup to target him again.

Colby Donovan has been giving away more fouls lately and has already picked up four yellow cards this season, more than anyone else at Celtic. He's committed at least one foul in each of his last five games, including four at home against Ferencváros.

The referee is worth keeping an eye on too. Georgi Kabakov has taken charge of two Champions League games and two Europa League games this season, handing out 18 yellow cards and three reds. Things won't get any easier for Donovan, with Williot Swedberg and Hugo Álvarez expected to attack down his side.

Both have been drawing fouls and are averaging more than one per 90 minutes. With two tricky opponents to deal with and a referee who isn't shy about showing cards, Donovan could be in for a tough night.

Koki Machida is giving away more fouls per 90 minutes than anyone else at Hoffenheim this season, averaging 2.86. He's committed at least two fouls in each of his last five games, picking up two yellow cards along the way.

Both bookings came in the Europa League, including one against OFI despite playing just one half. Ernest Nuamah could cause him plenty of problems too. The right winger is averaging 2.13 fouls won per 90 minutes this season and is likely to come up against Machida, who usually plays on the left side of Hoffenheim's defence.

It's not just the opposition Machida needs to worry about, with Halil Umut Meler set to referee the game. He's handed out five yellow cards in Thun vs Lech Poznań and another nine in PSV vs Shakhtar Donetsk this season, so he's clearly not afraid to get his cards out.

This should be a really entertaining game between two managers who will feel as though their sides can go deep in this competition, and both also want to play high intensity football.

Ruben Amorim’s teams always give up chances to the opposition. His set up is far too expansive, leading to Milan keeping just three clean sheets this season and facing an xG against of 8.80 across seven games in Serie A.

Bournemouth have had similar issues at the back under Marco Rose, also keeping just three clean sheets this season and conceding 13 goals across seven Premier League matches. They saw BTTS in their opening Europa League game against Real Sociedad, but proved too strong for Sturm Graz.

These are two of the favourites to go deep in this competition alongside Brighton, and both enter the game in really good form - with Freiburg notably scoring in each of their last 11 competitive matches, stretching all the way back to the Conference League final against Aston Villa.

Freiburg have scored multiple goals in nine of these games, showing the scoring power they could offer against a Monaco outfit who have failed to keep a clean sheet in either of their Conference League matches this term, despite winning both games.

Monaco have failed to keep a clean sheet across their last six matches, and have only kept two shutouts all season. Only Leverkusen (16) and Bayern (22) have scored more goals in the Bundesliga this season than Freiburg (15), and the German side should have enough to get on the scoresheet.

Besiktas were on the end of a loss at the weekend, but they are a completely different side when playing on home turf.

The Turkish side have won each of their last eight successive games across all competitions at home, with 18 goals scored in their last five matches alone.

That includes a 4-1 win against Marseille in round one of the Europa League.

In round two, Besiktas managed a 3-2 win against Hoffenheim - another high-scoring encounter.

Palace have been equally as entertaining to watch recently, but defensively they have looked poor.

In fact, the Eagles have conceded eight times in their last two games alone.

Besiktas will hope to exploit that apparent weakness at the back, so they should be front-footed.

They are averaging 6.3 corners per game this season across all competitions, rising to 6.9 when playing at home.

Besiktas are also averaging 20.6 shots per game on home turf, with 6.1 on target, which shows just how attack-minded they tend to be at the Besiktas Stadium. 

Lyon had no issues creating chances against Crystal Palace in their last European outing, and they finished the game with five corners.

The Eagles have conceded at least five corners in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with only Leeds failing to hit this mark.

However, they went close with exactly four corners.

Leandro Trossard is one of the biggest names in this Besiktas squad, and he looks set to start on the left wing.

He has plenty of experience against Premier League opposition, and Crystal Palace, in particular, who he will have fond memories of.

Trossard scored against the Eagles in the 24/25 campaign. 

This season, the Belgian is averaging 3.71 shots per 90 across all competitions, rising to 4.33 at the Besiktas Stadium.

In his last home outing, Trossard recorded a total of five shots, of which three hit the target.

He is adept at picking gaps in opposing defences, and this should be a matchup which the former Arsenal man is looking forward to.

Salih Ozcan landed this selection in his only Europa League start of the season so far, as he committed two fouls against Marseille in round one.

The midfielder is averaging 1.57 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, rising to 2.3 when playing at home.

There is every reason to expect those figures to rise even further on Thursday night, as Ozcan will be up against Adam Wharton and Quentin Timber in midfield.

Those two have combined for 3.37 fouls drawn per 90 this season. 

Ozcan likes to press intensely in midfield, and he covers plenty of ground.

His fouls don’t tend to be reckless or cynical.

They can often be quite soft, which means he can rack up several infringements before being carded.

On the opposite side, Anan Khalaili is one to target for fouls.

He has been brought in to replace Daniel Munoz at right wingback, so Khalaili is tasked with getting up and down the flank.

However, he is still given a large defensive responsibility, and he is averaging 1.13 fouls drawn per 90.

Khalaili is perhaps more comfortable going forward than he is at the back, meaning he has recorded a foul in six of his seven starts across all competitions. 

Khalaili will be up against Trossard, and that will be a matchup to keep an eye on.

The winger is averaging 2.6 fouls drawn per 90 at the Besiktas Stadium this season.

Paris Brunner has scored seven goals in eight games for Monaco this season and leads the team in shots on target, averaging 1.75 per game.

In the Conference League, he scored away to CSKA Sofia in the opening game and also found the net in both games against Górnik Zabrze in qualifying. Monaco are averaging 12 shots per game, with Brunner leading the way with 3.5 attempts per match.

They've also scored at least twice in every home game this season and now face a Freiburg side that's been struggling to keep clean sheets. Freiburg have conceded in each of their last four games, including twice at home against Jablonec.

They also conceded in both games against Motherwell in Conference League qualifying. With Brunner in such good form and Freiburg struggling at the back, there's a good chance he'll add to his goal tally on Thursday.

Arsenal played really well at the Allianz Arena in the Champions League during the week, earning a point thanks to a late equaliser from Declan Rice.

Arteta’s side controlled the game and only conceded to a wonderful defence splitting pass from Harry Kane and a penalty, which the former Tottenham man also converted.

Arsenal have won six of their seven Premier League games this season, with the exception of that 3-0 defeat to Brighton - who are proving to be one of the best sides in the league this term.

Arsenal have won three of their games at home in the Premier League this term, scoring seven goals and only conceding twice. 

They also have a great record against Arteta’s former side at the Emirates under his tenure, winning four of the last five clashes between the teams in North London.

Everton have conceded 2+ goals in both of their matches since the international break against Hull and Chelsea, also notably failing to win any of their three away matches this term.

Barnsley are in a real mess at the moment.

They’ve lost each of their last five matches ahead of this one, and you have to go all the way back to early September for their last win in any competition - a 2-1 victory over Blackpool.

Reading boast the best home record of any side in League One, with only Luton managing to beat them in front of their own fans back on Matchday 1.

Reading have scored 15 goals across their six home games in League One this term (2.5 per game), which is more than any other side at home in the third division.

Barnsley have only managed to win one of their five away games in League One this season, losing three of these games. Reading’s scoring power is likely to be too much for them, Barnsley have only scored five goals across these matches. 

These are two of the best sides in the Championship, and I think Southampton have shown enough this season to back them to get on the scoresheet.

Tonda Eckert’s side have netted 21 goals across their 11 games in the Championship this season (1.90 per game), only Middlesbrough (22) and West Ham (30) have scored more goals than Southampton in the Championship this season.

The only side that has managed to keep Southampton out so far this season was Bolton last week, who were quite fortunate to keep that clean sheet with the Saints registering an xG of 2.19 from their 14 shots.

These sides faced off in the EFL Cup earlier in the season, which saw West Ham come away 4-1 winners. Southampton rotated heavily for that game, and still managed to get on the scoresheet.

This is usually one of the most entertaining games of the Premier League season with the most recent meeting producing three goals as Chelsea came away 2-1 winners over Tottenham at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea have seen 3+ goals in six of their last seven Premier League matches this season. They did look a little more settled against Everton last time out, securing a 2-0 victory, but Tottenham should be able to capitalise more on Chelsea’s defensive issues than the Toffees.

De Zerbi’s side got their first win of the season against Coventry last time out, coming away 3-1 winners. They’ve seen 16 goals across their seven Premier League matches this season (2.28 per game), and have only kept one more clean sheet than Chelsea (2).

Dan Ndoye has probably been Forest’s most influential player so far this season, scoring two goals across his seven starts in the Premier League and only Liam Delap (18) has had more shots for Forest this season than the Swiss international.

Ndoye has taken 17 shots in the Premier League so far this term (3.28 per 90), managing 2+ shots in each of his last four Premier League games - including getting two shots away against Arsenal last time out, the best side in the league when it comes to keeping the opposition shot count down.

Ipswich are conceding 16.86 shots per game in the Premier League this term, while Forest have had at least 12+ shots in all of their Premier League matches this term - averaging 17.14 shots per game overall.

Julio Enciso is the star player in this Ipswich side and only six players in the Premier League have had more shots than the Paraguayan this term (19 - 3.03 per 90).

Enciso could definitely be a bit more clinical with these efforts, with just five of the 19 finding the target, but that still works out to a healthy average of 0.80 shots on target per 90. He’s willing to shoot from almost anywhere, 13 of his 19 efforts have come from outside the box.

Enciso played his football in Ligue 1 for Strasbourg last season, taking 61 shots across just 22 starts (2.90 per 90) and seeing 22 of those attempts find the target (1.05 per 90). 

He’s found the target in two of Ipswich’s three home games this term, managing two efforts on target in the game against Liverpool. 

Dara O’Shea has settled in really well to his right centre back role for Ipswich this season, playing in a back three alongside Diop and Greaves - who have proved to be a solid base for Ipswich so far this season.

O’Shea’s role as a wide centre back means that he can push on into midfield areas, giving him a wide variety of opponents. 

He’s committed six fouls across his seven starts in the Premier League this season and faces up against a Forest side who are winning 11.43 fouls per game in the Premier League this season.

O’Shea’s direct opponent is likely to be Neco Williams, when the Welshman pushes on as a wingback. Williams has won 12 fouls across his seven starts for Forest this season (1.71 per 90) and pretty much hugs the touchline when looking at his heat map. 

Nottingham Forest are seeing 9.57 corners per game in the Premier League this term, which rises to 10.80 corners per game when looking at their last five matches.

Corners and set pieces were a regular route to goal for Crystal Palace under Oliver Glasner, and he has similar assets in this Forest team with the likes of Murillo, Diomande and Delap all offering a decent threat from these situations.

Only three sides have actually conceded more corners than Forest over their last five matches, suggesting a slight vulnerability of their own that Ipswich could punish.

Ipswich are seeing 8.00 corners per game in the Premier League this term, but there is a tactical element at play here too with both sides set to line up in a 3-4-3 shape and play wingbacks.

These systems naturally make the pitch quite wide, with both sides looking to use their wingbacks to get balls into the box. Forest rank third for successful crosses in the Premier League (5.80 per game), while Ipswich are averaging 4.00 successful crosses per game.

Arsenal played really well at the Allianz Arena in the Champions League during the week, earning a point thanks to a late equaliser from Declan Rice.

Arteta’s side controlled the game and only conceded to a wonderful defence splitting pass from Harry Kane and a penalty, which the former Tottenham man also converted.

Arsenal have won six of their seven Premier League games this season, with the exception of that 3-0 defeat to Brighton - who are proving to be one of the best sides in the league this term.

Arsenal have won three of their games at home in the Premier League this term, scoring seven goals and only conceding twice. 

They also have a great record against Arteta’s former side at the Emirates under his tenure, winning four of the last five clashes between the teams in North London.

Everton have conceded 2+ goals in both of their matches since the international break against Hull and Chelsea, also notably failing to win any of their three away matches this term.

Roma have made an excellent start to the season, winning five of their opening seven matches in Serie A.

They’ve avoided defeat across these games, scoring 16 goals and conceding just three. This early run has put them in some title conversations, with Roma also showing real resilience in recent weeks to remain unbeaten despite having key players missing.

Only Inter (21) have scored more goals than Roma in Serie A this season, with Gian Piero Gasperini’s side notably scoring six goals across their three away assignments this term (2.0 per game).

Napoli are a bit of a mess at the moment, the appointment of Allegri seemed strange at the time and is looking more and more like a mistake - they’ve only kept three clean sheets this term, with just one shutout across their last five games.

Abde Rebbach is playing much like he did last season and rarely gets through a game without giving away a foul.

The Alavés defender has committed at least one foul in eight of his nine games this season, averaging 1.58 per 90 minutes.

Rebbach will have to deal with Rafael Garrido, who's been fouled more than anyone else at Málaga this season, averaging almost two fouls won per 90 minutes.

It's not just Garrido. David Larrubia could also cause problems down Alavés' left side, having drawn plenty of fouls himself this season.

Málaga's number 10 ranks second in the team for key passes and is involved in more duels than anyone else, averaging 15 per game.

With Garrido and Larrubia likely to keep him busy and three yellow cards already picked up in five home games this season, Rebbach could be in for a tough night against Málaga.

Andrea Carboni has been giving away more fouls than almost anyone else at Monza this season, and now he'll have to deal with Giovanni Simeone, who's averaging 2.37 fouls won per 90 minutes.

The centre-back committed four fouls in his last game against Cagliari and picked up a yellow against Lazio in the game before that.

Carboni is averaging 1.62 fouls per 90 minutes this season, and Simeone's movement could make life difficult for him. 

The striker scored twice against Parma and caused all sorts of problems down the left side of their defence.

The referee is worth keeping an eye on too. Andrea Zanotti hasn't been letting much go this season, handing out 12 yellow cards and one red in his last two Serie B games.

Carboni has given away at least one foul in seven of his eight games this season. With Simeone drawing so many fouls and a referee who isn't shy about showing cards, he could be in for a tough time away from home.

I really enjoy backing Liam Delap in this market, it covers both of the main parts of his game quite well. 

Delap has scored once since arriving at Forest, but I do see that tally improving the more he works with Glasner. He’s had more shots than any other Forest player this season (18), so he’s getting in the right positions.

Delap’s poor spell at Chelsea has almost erased a lot of the good work he did for Ipswich the season prior to joining the Blues, netting 12 Premier League goals for a side that got relegated.

Whilst I do believe that Delap will still develop to be a decent striker, one part of his game that will be a constant negative is how overly physical he is in his challenges.

Delap has committed a foul in each of his last five Premier League appearances, committing multiple fouls in three of these games. This has led to Delap picking up two yellow cards, and he could get in a real tangle against the back three of Ipswich. 

This is an excellent price for Murillo to have at least one shot against Ipswich on Friday night.

I’ve been impressed with the Forest centre back for some time, and Glasner coming in has taken his game to another level - especially when it comes to his attacking contributions.

Playing as the left centre back in a back three allows Murillo to push on into central areas. This is an invitation he accepts often, being more comfortable when it comes to  driving with the ball than most other centre backs.

He’s had 12 shots across just seven starts for Forest in the Premier League (1.72 per 90), which is a significant rise on the 0.46 shots per 90 he averaged last season. It’s clear that this slight positional change has benefited his shot numbers, with the role allowing him to step forward more regularly. 

Forest are averaging 17.14 shots per game in the Premier League, managing at least 12 shots in all of their domestic matches this term.

Neco Williams has been fouled in each of his last five matches in the Premier League, winning multiple fouls in two of these games.

He’s been deployed as a left wingback by Oliver Glasner, which is a role that really suits him. 

He’s not the best defensively, but is excellent at crossing - so playing as a wingback gives Williams the extra defensive protection he needs while maximising his strengths.

Williams has been fouled 12 times overall across his seven starts in the Premier League, working out to an average of 1.71 fouls won per 90.

He maintained an average of 1.46 fouls won per 90 for Forest across 36 starts last season - so this is a pretty consistent part of his game. 

One of the advantages of backing wingbacks for fouls or fouls won, is that they usually have up to two or three opponents depending on the opposition set up. 

Daizen Maeda was an interesting signing by Ipswich over the summer, but may just pitch in with enough goals to help the side stay up.

Maeda isn’t incredibly talented, but he works really hard and often gets rewarded for that endeavour. He’s only had four shots for Ipswich this season, but the key thing for me is that three of these shots have found the target.

He scored in Ipswich’s 3-2 defeat to City last time out, which will give him confidence, also finding the target in Ipswich’s games against Liverpool and United - suggesting that Maeda can offer a decent threat for Ipswich in transition.

Maeda played his football for Celtic last season, averaging 1.05 shots on target per 90 domestically. He did play as a striker for part of the season, so it’s a little skewed, but his early performances for Ipswich have been promising enough to back him to find the target at least once. 

Erling Haaland has had more shots on target than any other player in the Premier League this season, averaging 1.89 shots on target per 90 across his seven starts and netting eight goals in the process.

Haaland had three shots on target when City visited Villa Park last season, accounting for 75% of the shots on target that City had in that 1-0 defeat. 

He was rested for City’s win over AEK Athens during the week, so should be fully fit for this clash against a Villa side who also competed in the Champions League during the week. 

He’s had at least one shot on target in all three of his away matches in the Premier League this term, managing three efforts on target in City’s 4-1 win over Palace earlier in the season.

Villa are having issues with keeping the opposition shot count down, conceding 15.86 shots per game and 4.43 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season.

Johan Manzambi is a doubt for this game, which is a real blow for Villa as he’s started the season really well, but Jackson has been the other standout across the opening months of the season for Unai Emery’s side.

Jackson has long received criticism he doesn’t really deserve, it’s true that he could be a bit more clinical with the positions he gets in - but the fact he keeps getting in these situations is a real positive, as is his ability to carry the ball and bring others into play.

It’s also notable that he’s being coached by Unai Emery now, who has made a habit of improving strikers just like Jackson - with Watkins’ rise as a top striker being mainly down to the advice of Emery.

Jackson has scored two goals across his six starts in the Premier League this season, taking 16 shots across these matches (3.07 per 90) and seeing five of these efforts find the target (0.96 per 90).

Marc Guehi is one of the most consistent centre backs in the Premier League when it comes to winning fouls, drawing eight across his seven starts this season (1.14 per 90).

He’s incredibly comfortable on the ball, averaging 96.6 touches per 90 and 80.3 successful passes per 90. These metrics are relevant because it shows just how much of the ball Guehi sees, increasing the chances of him being fouled.

Aston Villa are averaging 10.7 fouls committed per game in the Premier League this term, and I’m particularly interested in Guehi’s battle with Jackson. The former Chelsea striker’s foul numbers aren’t anything standout, but he is easily frustrated - especially against sides that are as good at keeping the ball as City.

Guehi has been fouled in four of his last five Premier League matches, and only three City players have won more fouls than the former Crystal Palace centre back this term.

Aston Villa have recovered from a sluggish start to the campaign, just as they did last year, and enter this clash having avoided defeat in each of their last seven matches - winning six of these games.

They’ve only kept two clean sheets during this run, against Newcastle and Fenerbahce, but still conceded an xG of 0.99 or higher in both of those games. Lindelof and Mings are not that convincing a pairing, and I think both will struggle to deal with Haaland.

City have seen BTTS in each of their last three matches ahead of this clash, conceding twice against Ipswich in their last home game. I still think there are issues for Maresca to address with City’s rest defence - a weakness that Jackson is perfect to exploit as a solid ball carrier.

Joao Pedro has been one of the best strikers in the Premier League so far this season, netting five goals across his six starts for Chelsea from 16 shots (2.76 per 90).

The Brazilian has had the joint most shots on target of any Chelsea player this season (8 - 1.38 per 90), and has also notably had the most touches in the opposition box of any Chelsea player (35) and had the most big chances (6).

This has been the main shift in Joao Pedro’s game this season, he’s playing much more as an actual striker rather than drifting to other areas of the pitch.

He’s had at least one shot on target in four of his last five Premier League matches, and managed five shots on target against Tottenham when Chelsea travelled to North London last season. 

It’s no coincidence that Chelsea have looked a lot harder to beat since Moises Caicedo’s return to the starting lineup, with the midfielder forming a surprisingly strong partnership with Henderson in the middle of the park.

Caicedo has committed a foul in both of his Premier League starts this season, committing three fouls against Everton last time out. He was very fortunate to avoid a yellow card, contesting seven duels in total at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.

This is obviously a small sample size, but Caicedo has been a reckless presence in the Chelsea midfield for some time. He committed more fouls than any other Chelsea player last season (54), averaging 1.73 fouls committed per 90 - ranking in the 99th percentile when compared with other Premier League midfielders for this metric. 

James Maddison returned to the Tottenham starting lineup against Coventry last time out, and was fouled four times. He’d be an ideal opponent for Caicedo here. 

I highlighted this angle in Tottenham’s game against Coventry last week, and it landed in the first half with Van Hecke playing as the right sided centre back when Tottenham had the ball.

Van Hecke has been fouled in four of his last five Premier League matches, only five Tottenham players have won more fouls than Van Hecke (7) this season - so it’s a consistent part of his game, and I think he can be fouled at least once in this London derby.

Van Hecke ranks in the 84th percentile when compared to other centre backs in the Premier League for fouls won. Playing as that right sided centre back should see Van Hecke run into Jorrel Hato and Morgan Rogers, who are averaging 1.43 fouls committed per 90 between them this term.

Emi Martinez had to come off on a stretcher at the Hill Dickinson stadium last week, meaning Mike Penders will step into the number one role for Chelsea here.

Penders is talented, but inexperienced and I think we’ll see Tottenham try and capitalise on that with some early long range efforts to test the keeper - who had to make four stops in his only start this season against Leeds in the EFL Cup.

Emi Martinez was forced into making 25 saves across just six starts in the Premier League prior to his injury, more than any other keeper in the division. This works out to an average of 4.29 saves per 90, we just need Penders to make two here.

Martinez was forced into making 3+ saves in all six of these matches, suggesting that Chelsea are too easy to take aim against - and will need Penders to make at least two saves here if they are to get all three points. 

There's no denying Go Ahead Eagles have been great fun to watch this season, with BTTS landing in all nine of their Eredivisie games so far.

At home, they're averaging an impressive 18 shots per game, and three of their four matches have seen at least four goals.

The only thing holding them back is their defence. They've conceded seven goals in their last two games, including four against PEC Zwolle, who had the worst attack in the league going into that match.

Telstar have been struggling too, but they've still managed to score three against league leaders Feyenoord and two against ADO Den Haag.

Telstar have shown they can hurt even the best defences in the league, and with Eagles playing such entertaining games at home, I'm expecting another night full of goals here.

Borussia Mönchengladbach are bottom of the table for a reason. They've conceded at least twice in every one of their six Bundesliga games so far.

While they've got the worst defence in the league, the good news is they've scored in their last three matches, including a crazy 4-3 defeat to Mainz.

Gladbach are averaging 15 shots per game and now face a Stuttgart side that have conceded in every home game this season, including in the Champions League.

Stuttgart have been putting up some impressive attacking numbers at home too, averaging 17 shots and 1.69 xG per game.

Ermedin Demirović is their top scorer with five goals and is available for this one, having played just 18 minutes against Atlético de Madrid.

With both teams creating plenty of chances and their defences still struggling, this game has all the ingredients for goals at both ends.

BTTS has landed in all three of Forest's Premier League away games so far, with the team scoring and conceding every time.

They drew 2-2 away at Liverpool and even managed more shots than both Aston Villa and Crystal Palace.

Ipswich are allowing an average of 16 shots per game and haven't managed a single clean sheet this season.

But their attack has been doing its part, scoring twice in their defeat to league leaders Manchester City and another two in their win over Fulham.

Gibbs-White has been an important part of Forest's attack, with one goal and two assists, and he's expected to return this Friday.

With him back in the team, there's even more reason to expect an entertaining game between two sides that just can't seem to keep clean sheets.

I think Roma can avoid defeat when they travel to Napoli on Saturday evening.

Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have made a quietly impressive start to the season, remaining unbeaten in Serie A with five wins and two draws from their opening seven matches.

The capital club have already held Inter Milan to a 2-2 draw at home, while they battled to a spirited 0-0 draw away at Como after receiving a red card early in the second half.

As for Napoli, their start to the season has been a lot more mixed, with Max Allegri’s men winning three, drawing one and losing three of their opening seven league games.

Notably, Napoli have already lost to both Inter and Como this season, and suffered a 1-0 defeat away at Venezia in their most recent Serie A outing.

The hosts may have beaten Bodo/Glimt 4-3 in the Champions League in midweek, but defeats to Arsenal and Villarreal in their opening two matches strengthen the case for Roma on the double chance.

Look for Napoli and Roma to combine for at least 9 match corners at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Saturday evening.

The Partenopei’s fixtures have been particularly corner-heavy across the opening seven rounds of Serie A, producing an average of 10.71 corners per game.

Much of that is down to Max Allegri’s men, who have averaged 6.43 corners per 90, a tally bettered only by Como and Juventus.

On closer inspection, all 7 of Napoli’s league games this season have featured at least 9 corners, with the hosts winning 9 or more themselves in two of those matches, including last week’s defeat to Venezia.

Roma should contribute, too. They have averaged 5.14 corners per game in Serie A this term and forced 8 in both their away win at Torino and their Champions League win against Slovan Bratislava earlier this week.

Donyell Malen has been one of Roma’s standout performers this season, and I’m backing the Dutchman to have at least one shot on target.

The former Aston Villa forward has scored 6 goals in as many Serie A appearances this season and is expected to return to the starting XI after serving a suspension against Genoa last week.

Moreover, Malen was back in the side in midweek, scoring against Slovan Bratislava after bagging a brace against Real Madrid the week before.

His goalscoring output can be attributed to a sizeable average of 2.26 shots on target per game in Serie A this season, with Malen hitting the target at least once in five of his six outings and recording 2+ on-target efforts in three of those contests.

Napoli have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 3 matches, conceding 3 goals and allowing 15 shots against Bodo/Glimt on Tuesday night, further strengthening the case for Malen to register at least one shot on target here.

Scott McTominay is a player I always like to target in the shots market, and he looks worth backing to attempt two or more efforts against Roma on Saturday evening.

After a spell on the sidelines, the Scotland international has returned to the Napoli side in recent weeks and his impact has been noteworthy.

Indeed, McTominay scored twice from 7 attempts against Bodo/Glimt on Tuesday night.

The week before, he came off the bench against Villarreal and had 2 efforts in a half-hour run-out.

He also racked up 6 attempts across the full 90 minutes in Napoli’s defeat at Venezia last weekend, underlining his shoot-on-sight approach.

Further encouragement comes from the fact that McTominay averaged 3.16 attempts per game in Serie A last season, adding to the appeal of backing him to let fly at least twice against Roma.

Krzysztof Ratajski is one of the most consistent players on the tour, regularly sitting around a 95/96 average which sees him get to around the Round of 16 or Quarter Finals of most events.

He struggles to raise his game beyond this impressive base, which has stopped Ratajski from going toe to toe with the very elite players. He’s taking on a player in Dave Chisnall, who has been in decline for some time.

It looks like a lot of effort for Chisnall at the moment. His movement was always a bit idiosyncratic, but it looks harsher now with his darts often dropping below the treble 20 bed.

This is harmful for Chizzy, as 180 hitting was a massive part of his game when he was at his peak. He’s still hitting 0.28 180s per leg, but the rest of his game is suffering - averaging 90.34 over the season and failing to pick up a title of any description since 2024.

Ratajski’s recent form isn’t the best, but he’ll see this as a very winnable first round tie and has picked up a title on the Euro Tour this year. 

Jonny Clayton was impressive at the World Grand Prix, beating Ratajski and Nijman before bowing out to eventual finalist and fellow Welshman, Gerwyn Price.

Clayton won a European Tour last month, beating Gian van Veen and Luke Humphries in the final two rounds. He’s clearly one of the best players on the tour, and has the experience to navigate being against a fan favourite.

Niko Springer will get all the support from the home crowd as one of the two Germans competing in Dortmund. Against a less experienced player, I could see this having an effect on Springer’s opponent - but Clayton has been in that scenario so many times before.

Keep an eye out for Clayton hitting 100+ checkouts in this game and across the tournament. He was on fire with that range at the World Grand Prix, and is skilled on the bull. It could also be a good way to quieten the crowd.

Stuttgart are at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach, who are bottom of the Bundesliga with the worst defence in the league, having conceded at least twice in every game.

Ermedin Demirovic is Stuttgart's top scorer this season with five goals and also leads the team in shots and shots on target.

The striker is averaging an impressive 4.61 shots and 2.41 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Stuttgart are averaging 17 shots per game at home, while Mönchengladbach have allowed at least 19 shots in every away game.

With Mönchengladbach struggling so much away from home and Demirovic getting so many chances, there's a good chance we'll see the Stuttgart striker add to his goal tally here.

I remember watching Cozier-Duberry years ago in a reserve fixture that Blackburn played in and he was electric. His ability is reaching new heights every week and he’s in sensational form for ‘Boro.

Cozier-Duberry is left-footed, playing from the right. He’s capable of wonder goals and loves cutting in and letting fly.

This season he’s averaged a huge 4.59 shots per 90 minutes in the Championship. His 24 shots is the second highest in the squad behind Lankshear, who has played nearly double the minutes.

The winger racked up eight shots in his last match against Cardiff, with three on target.

Famewo will be the man tasked with stopping Cozier-Duberry. Cozier-Duberry hasn’t been a prolific foul-winner so far this season, however he has drawn one in each of his last two and last season he drew 1.12 per 90 minutes and was the fourth most fouled player in Bolton’s squad.

As for Famewo, he was booked in his last outing and has averaged 1.19 fouls per 90 minutes so far this season.

He has committed a foul in all bar one game this season and the game he failed to do so was when he was substituted at half-time against QPR.

Sheehan is a very busy man in the middle of the park for Bolton. He has committed the most fouls in their squad this season (15) but is also their most fouled player (18).

Given how short his prices are to commit a foul, and the data actually being better for drawing them, this looks like a nice little price.

Sheehan has drawn an average of 1.65 fouls per 90 minutes and comes up against a ‘Boro midfield who average 2.35 fouls per 90 (Morris and Berhalter).

Sheehan has drawn at least one foul in 10 of his 11 Championship appearances this season.

‘Boro are the heavy favourites here and have averaged a huge 2.07 xG in the Championship this season.

They have immensely talented forward players at their disposal and could well cover this line on their own if they’re at their best.

‘Boro matches have averaged 3.45 goals, the second-highest in the division with 73% of their games having three or more goals, including four of their last five.

As for Bolton, their average sits at 3.00 per match and a 64% strike rate for over 2.5 goals.

They can definitely offer a threat. Their xG rises dramatically at home to 1.87, compared to 1.21 away.

I backed this selection in my write up for Charlton’s defeat at Watford last week and I’m surprised Coventry isn’t sitting at odds closer to 1.14 than the 1.30 available.

Coventry has averaged 1.82 fouls per 90 minutes in the Championship so far this season and has been booked in each of his last two games.

The Irish midfielder has fouled in every single Championship game this season. He also fouled in each of his three starts for Ireland over the international break.

Midfielder Pelle Mattsson is also Norwich’s most fouled player, he draws an average of 1.76 fouls per 90 minutes.

Not only adept at winning fouls, the Dane is busy committing them. He’s averaged 2.55 per 90 minutes this season and his 26 total fouls is more than double the next highest player in the Norwich squad. It’s also the second highest in the division.

He’s committed two or more fouls in each of his last five matches and throughout the season his consistency in this market has been remarkable.

Mattsson has made two or more fouls in nine of his 10 Championship starts. He’s racked up as many as five on two occasions and four on another.

Another important part of the Mattson selection is the correlation with Oliver Skipp drawing fouls for Charlton. This was another selection I took last week.

Skipp was fouled twice in just 45 minutes in the defeat to Watford and has been fouled in five of his seven appearances on loan at Charlton.

He’s drawn an average of 1.43 per 90 minutes and with Mattsson lining up on the other side and being such a frequent fouler, the two selections should go hand-in-hand.

A Mattsson foul or two on Skipp would be the perfect set up for the bet builder.

Leaburn’s foul numbers are off the chart. He’s made 24 fouls this season, that’s six more than the aforementioned Conor Coventry who was averaging 1.82 fouls per 90 minutes.

By comparison, Leaburn is racking up a huge 2.73 fouls per 90 minutes this season. His 24 fouls ranks him third in the Championship.

Leaburn plays off the front so will come in to contact with defenders and midfield. Again, coming back to Mattsson who is a big foul drawer, the 10th highest in the division in-fact.

Cordoba and McConville do combine for just above 1.00 fouls per 90 minutes too, with 11 between them so far this campaign.

There’s a real clash of styles here, with Wattimena being an excellent scorer but a bit dodgy on the outer ring, while Joyce is the opposite - showing his best side towards the end of legs.

Wattimena has had a decent year. He picked up a Players Championship trophy, as well as reaching the final of a Euro Tour. He’s averaging 0.26 180s per leg this season, operating at a first nine average of 103.40.

Joyce is only averaging 0.16 180s per leg this season, suggesting a real gap between the two when it comes to their maximum hitting. His darts are quite thick, and can block the bed even when his first two land - so they’re not suited to regular maximum hitting.

Wattimena will know his edge is in the scoring phase of the game, and I expect him to come away with the most maximums here in a real clash of styles.

Krzysztof Ratajski is one of the most consistent players on the tour, regularly sitting around a 95/96 average which sees him get to around the Round of 16 or Quarter Finals of most events.

He struggles to raise his game beyond this impressive base, which has stopped Ratajski from going toe to toe with the very elite players. He’s taking on a player in Dave Chisnall, who has been in decline for some time.

It looks like a lot of effort for Chisnall at the moment. His movement was always a bit idiosyncratic, but it looks harsher now with his darts often dropping below the treble 20 bed.

This is harmful for Chizzy, as 180 hitting was a massive part of his game when he was at his peak. He’s still hitting 0.28 180s per leg, but the rest of his game is suffering - averaging 90.34 over the season and failing to pick up a title of any description since 2024.

Ratajski’s recent form isn’t the best, but he’ll see this as a very winnable first round tie and has picked up a title on the Euro Tour this year. 

This could be the game of the night, Cristo Reyes has done remarkably well to battle back as a PDC player having taken a few years away from the game. 

He’s still operating at a really impressive standard despite this break from darts, averaging 94.08 this season and maintaining a checkout percentage just shy of 40%. 

Aspinall is the favourite here, but such a short format could see Reyes cause the Asp real issues. Reyes has won his opening game in each of the last two Euro Tour events, and doesn’t tend to get thrashed - each of his last five defeats in this format have seen him pick up at least three legs.

We’d likely need Reyes to break Aspinall at least once in this game for this selection to land. I think he’s capable of that, in what should be a tight game as the match odds already suggest.

Jonny Clayton was impressive at the World Grand Prix, beating Ratajski and Nijman before bowing out to eventual finalist and fellow Welshman, Gerwyn Price.

Clayton won a European Tour last month, beating Gian van Veen and Luke Humphries in the final two rounds. He’s clearly one of the best players on the tour, and has the experience to navigate being against a fan favourite.

Niko Springer will get all the support from the home crowd as one of the two Germans competing in Dortmund. Against a less experienced player, I could see this having an effect on Springer’s opponent - but Clayton has been in that scenario so many times before.

Keep an eye out for Clayton hitting 100+ checkouts in this game and across the tournament. He was on fire with that range at the World Grand Prix, and is skilled on the bull. It could also be a good way to quieten the crowd.