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This Belgium defence is nowhere near what it was in their golden generation.

While Thibaut Courtois isn’t in the squad either, and though they’ve only conceded one goal from two games this international break, their performances have been far less convincing than that would suggest.

They’ve let in only one goal from 2.92 xG, conceding 21 shots in a 2-0 win in Italy and 18 in their 1-0 home defeat to France.

Turkey generated 1.21 xG in a 1-0 loss at home to France, before producing 2.89 in their 4-1 defeat at home to Italy.

Getting on their travels could do them some good after a disappointing few months.

Turkey scored 17 goals in six World Cup qualifying group games (2.83 per game), mightily impressive considering they played Spain twice in that sample.

Sweden have seen BTTS in 11/12 games since appointing Graham Potter as manager.

The bet came in after 43 minutes in their 3-1 win over Poland on Monday, and their top of League B Group 4 with six points out of six.

Bosnia have been reliable in front of goal of late, scoring in 3/3 group stage games at the World Cup and they scored three in the first half in a 4-2 win in Romania last time out.

Bosnia have seen BTTS in 10 of their last 12 competitive games as well, so it’s not just the Swedes with the tendency for goals at both ends.

The bet was in after 28 minutes in their last match, and a win for either side would put them in a commanding position to progress to League A.

Sweden have seen BTTS in 11/12 games since appointing Graham Potter as manager.

The bet came in after 43 minutes in their 3-1 win over Poland on Monday, and their top of League B Group 4 with six points out of six.

Bosnia have been reliable in front of goal of late, scoring in 3/3 group stage games at the World Cup and they scored three in the first half in a 4-2 win in Romania last time out.

Bosnia have seen BTTS in 10 of their last 12 competitive games as well, so it’s not just the Swedes with the tendency for goals at both ends.

The bet was in after 28 minutes in their last match, and a win for either side would put them in a commanding position to progress to League A.

Turkiye are such an exciting team to watch, but they are far from solid and will give up chances against this young Belgium side who have a lot of talented forwards worth keeping an eye on.

Turkiye conceded four goals against Italy last time out, a poor Italy side it must be said, also managing to get on the scoresheet themselves in a clash that saw a combined xG of 5.17 (2.89-2.28).

Belgium impressed me against Italy in their opening game, coming away 2-0 winners on the road thanks to goals from Godts and Lukebakio. They generated an xG of 2.76 in that clash, but notably allowed Italy to generate an xG of 1.70 themselves, also notably having 36 touches in Belgium’s box.

These underlying numbers would suggest that Belgium have been a bit fortunate to concede just one goal across their games against France and Italy. I think both sides will see this as the easiest game in the group, and we should see that reflected in the attitude of both nations.

France have won both of their games to nil in the Nations League so far, winning 1-0 against both Italy and Türkiye on the road. This is Zinedine Zidane’s first home game as the manager of the national team, and I think France gets all three points against an Italy side that are in transition.

Italy’s 4-1 win over Turkiye last time out flattered them quite a lot, it was more that Turkiye allowed Italy to dominate the game rather than Italy being impressive. They won’t get that space against a France side who limited Belgium to an xG of 0.69 last time out.

France beat Italy 3-1 when the nations last faced off in the Nations League back in 2024. I can see a similar outcome here with Italy travelling to the second strongest side in Europe with a young squad that has a long way to go if Italy want to get to the level of France, or even qualify for an international tournament.

One of Italy’s main failings over the last 10 years has been a reluctance to trust young players. 

This goes far deeper than just the national team set up, even Serie A clubs seem almost allergic to trusting players that are under 23 and that has harmed the development of Italy’s best young talents, resulting in Italy failing to feature in recent major tournaments.

The good news is that Roberto Mancini has picked the youngest Italy squad in some time and Pio Esposito is a player that could develop into a really effective striker having provided a goal and an assist against Turkiye last time out.

Esposito has scored six goals across just 11 caps, which is an impressive record for a national team that have struggled over the last few years. He’s taken five shots in the Nations League so far (3.21 per 90), impressively seeing four of these efforts find the target (2.57 per 90). 

You can tell that Zinedine Zidane absolutely adores Michael Olise, he’s won both of his opening games as France manager and loved Olise’s late goal against Belgium last time out - running down the touchline and booting a water bottle in celebration.

Olise has already scored four goals across his three starts for Bayern Munich this season from 17 shots (5.05 per 90), seeing nine of those efforts find the target (2.67 per 90). He’s also found the target in both of France’s Nations League games so far against Turkiye and Belgium. 

Olise scored two goals across five starts during France’s World Cup qualifying campaign from 13 shots (2.74 per 90), showing a consistency with his shot volume when lining up for his national team as well as his club side.

Tonali has committed a foul in both of Italy’s Nations League games so far, committing three fouls against Turkiye last time out as Italy secured a much needed 4-1 victory over Turkiye.

Italy committed 21 fouls in total in that away victory over Turkiye, building on the 12 fouls they committed against Belgium. There is a fresh intensity about this Italy side which looks to come from Roberto Mancini, who was the last Italy manager to bring any success - or even qualify for a major tournament. 

Tonali played in a deeper role behind Fagioli and Frattesi against Turkiye which is an interesting switch from his previous role in the national side where he was encouraged to get forward. 

That position explains Tonali’s three foul haul against Turkiye, which is a rise from his base numbers - which are still consistent when looking to back the Tottenham man to commit a foul in this clash against a France side who have drawn 12+ fouls in both of their Nations League games so far. 

Dayot Upamecano started in France’s win over Turkiye in their opening Nations League game, committing a foul and picking up a yellow card as France secured a 1-0 win in Zidane’s first game in charge.

I’ve never been sold on Upamecano as an elite centre back, I think he makes too many mistakes and can be particularly vulnerable against a versatile forward like Esposito, who is set to be his direct opponent in this clash.

Esposito has won three fouls across his two starts in the Nations League so far (1.93 per 90), and has also won nine fouls across just four starts in Serie A (2.78 per 90). This is a small sample size, but Esposito averaged 2.88 fouls won per 90 across 15 starts last season - showing that this is one of the strongest parts of his game. 

France have won both of their games to nil in the Nations League so far, winning 1-0 against both Italy and Türkiye on the road. This is Zinedine Zidane’s first home game as the manager of the national team, and I think France gets all three points against an Italy side that are in transition.

Italy’s 4-1 win over Turkiye last time out flattered them quite a lot, it was more that Turkiye allowed Italy to dominate the game rather than Italy being impressive. They won’t get that space against a France side who limited Belgium to an xG of 0.69 last time out.

France beat Italy 3-1 when the nations last faced off in the Nations League back in 2024. I can see a similar outcome here with Italy travelling to the second strongest side in Europe with a young squad that has a long way to go if Italy want to get to the level of France, or even qualify for an international tournament.

France have won both of their games to nil in the Nations League so far, winning 1-0 against both Italy and Türkiye on the road. This is Zinedine Zidane’s first home game as the manager of the national team, and I think France gets all three points against an Italy side that are in transition.

Italy’s 4-1 win over Turkiye last time out flattered them quite a lot, it was more that Turkiye allowed Italy to dominate the game rather than Italy being impressive. They won’t get that space against a France side who limited Belgium to an xG of 0.69 last time out.

France beat Italy 3-1 when the nations last faced off in the Nations League back in 2024. I can see a similar outcome here with Italy travelling to the second strongest side in Europe with a young squad that has a long way to go if Italy want to get to the level of France, or even qualify for an international tournament.

Türkiye can struggle to see out games, but they do usually find a way to get on the scoresheet and should be able to breach Belgium’s backline here which is still taking shape under new manager Mark van Bommel.

Turkiye generated an xG of 1.21 in their opening game against France, despite only having 36% of the ball. They had 22 touches in the opposition box, just three fewer than their opponents, and also managed three shots on target which are numbers to suggest that they should have ended up on the scoresheet.

Turkiye did manage to find the back of the net against Italy last time out, falling to a 4-1 defeat which looks bad on paper but Italy were fortunate to win by that margin with Turkiye actually generating a higher xG than Mancini’s side (2.89-2.28). 

Bosnia saw six goals last time out as they came away 4-2 winners over Romania on the road, generating an xG of 2.59 in victory from 15 shots.

There are some decent young players coming through in this Bosnia side, with the three in behind 32 year old striker Tabakovic all being 21 or under and Kerim Alajbegovic standing out as a real player to watch having impressed at the World Cup as well as securing a move to Juventus over the summer.

Their opening game against Poland did finish 0-0, but their opponents here in Sweden should create the conditions for a high scoring game with Graham Potter’s side seeing 4+ goals in their two Nations League games so far as well as 2+ goals in each of their last 12 matches.

Sweden have covered this line on their own in both matches against Romania and Poland, but have failed to keep a clean sheet in both of those matches - and also have been at home for those games, with this assignment looking more difficult on paper.

Slovakia have won both of their Nations League C games so far and I’ve backed them on both occasions.

They’re clearly the best nation in this group, it happens quite often in the C tier of this competition that the groups are quite heavily skewed with one nation being there that is clearly superior to the others.

Slovakia have scored four goals across their two games, conceding just once and have dominated the underlying numbers in these games as well - Kazakhstan only generated an xG of 0.18 from three shots against them last time out.

I think Faroe Islands will face similar challenges here given that they’ve failed to beat either of the nations that Slovakia have dismissed quite easily so far and allowed Moldova to have 22 shots and generate an xG of 1.68 last time out. 

Hamilton have made a really strong start to the season and should overpower Peterhead at home on Saturday.

Darian McKinnon’s men have won six and drawn one of their opening seven league games of the campaign.

The Accies have already racked up some high-scoring victories, including a 5-0 win away at Montrose and home wins of 4-0 against Airdrie and 4-1 against Queen of the South, the latter coming just a couple of weeks ago.

That spells trouble for a struggling Peterhead side who have lost five of their opening eight league games, including each of their last three.

The Blue Toon have conceded multiple goals in each of their last four league defeats. 

That strengthens the case for Hamilton to claim another three points and score at least twice along the way.

Ross County have been scoring goals for fun this season and they can record another win with room to spare when they host Alloa in Scottish League One on Saturday.

The Staggies have won six and drawn one of their opening seven league games of the season.

They have scored multiple goals in each of their last five league wins, including a resounding 8-0 victory over Queen of the South in their last home game.

Stuart Kettlewell’s side also flexed their attacking muscles in the Scottish Challenge Cup last weekend, running out emphatic 14-0 winners against Hearts B.

That should leave confidence sky high in the County camp ahead of a meeting with an Alloa side who have tailed off of late.

The Wasps have lost their last two league games, going down 2-1 at home to East Kilbride last time out. 

That adds to the appeal of backing free-scoring Ross County to win with over 1.5 goals.

Dumbarton have started to build some momentum, and I fancy them to avoid defeat when they host Forfar in Scottish League Two on Saturday.

Frank McKeown’s men have won two of their last three league matches, beating Elgin 2-1 and Spartans 3-0 at home, the latter of which was a fortnight ago.

Indeed, all three of Dumbarton’s league wins this season have come on their own patch, having also beaten league leaders Clyde earlier in the campaign.

The Sons have also continued their recent improvement with 3-2 wins over Kilmarnock B and Banks O’ Dee in the Challenge Cup over the past week or so. 

As for Forfar, they have made a mixed start to the season and sit fifth in the table, but have struggled to pick up points away from Station Park.

In fact, the Loons have taken just two points from four road games this term, drawing at Elgin and Edinburgh City but losing heavily at Clyde and Spartans.

Livingston look well placed to continue building momentum by beating Ayr United at home on Saturday.

A slow start to the season cost Glen Whelan his job, but the Lions have found their feet since former manager David Martindale took charge on an interim basis.

Martindale has long been a shrewd operator in the Scottish game, and he has wasted little time steadying the ship, overseeing wins away at Morton and Raith Rovers either side of a home draw with Inverness.

As for Ayr United, their encouraging start to the season is in danger of becoming a distant memory.

The Honest Men have lost four of their last six league matches, including away defeats at both Raith Rovers and Partick Thistle.

Gary Naysmith’s side also lost 1-0 at home to Stenhousemuir last Friday night, and I can see them leaving West Lothian empty-handed.

I fancy Partick Thistle to return to winning ways in the Scottish Championship by seeing off Arbroath on Saturday.

Mark Wilson’s side have stuttered of late, but performances have been better than results suggest, and a home game against Arbroath looks like a good opportunity to get back on track.

Thistle have made their Maryhill base a tough place to visit, going unbeaten at home in the league last term and extending that run this season with notable wins over Livingston and Ayr United. 

That doesn’t bode well for an Arbroath side who tend to do their best work at home.

The Red Lichties have lost three of their four Championship away matches this season, so Thistle look worth siding with here.

I really like Francesco Pio Esposito and he’s found the target twice in both of Italy’s Nations League games so far. This is a really attractive price for him to find the target again, it’s as low as 1.44 elsewhere. 

One of Italy’s main failings over the last 10 years has been a reluctance to trust young players. 
This goes far deeper than just the national team set up, even Serie A clubs seem almost allergic to trusting players that are under 23 and that has harmed the development of Italy’s best young talents, resulting in Italy failing to feature in recent major tournaments.

The good news is that Roberto Mancini has picked the youngest Italy squad in some time and Pio Esposito is a player that could develop into a really effective striker having provided a goal and an assist against Turkiye last time out.

Esposito has scored six goals across just 11 caps, which is an impressive record for a national team that have struggled over the last few years. He’s taken five shots in the Nations League so far (3.21 per 90), impressively seeing four of these efforts find the target (2.57 per 90). 

He impressed me in Serie A last season too, scoring seven goals across 15 starts for Inter as he supported Martinez and Thuram in Inter’s title winning campaign. He’ll probably break into the first team more regularly this season, averaging 3.29 shots per 90 and 1.33 shots on target per 90 across those domestic appearances.

Italy had six shots on target against Belgium in their opening game and eight efforts on goal against Turkiye last time out - Mancini clearly wants this Italy side to play in a more front footed style and that should see the away side be able to create a few chances for their form striker. 

I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Joyce in this game, purely due to the price. He’s at 3.40 to win here, which I think is slightly unfair to his displays in the Grand Prix so far - dismissing Van Gerwen and Noppert across the first two rounds.

Aspinall was brilliant against Luke Woodhouse, but this clash against Joyce is a completely different challenge. Joyce is far more methodical in his action than Aspinall, which will naturally disrupt the Asp’s game at times as we saw in the last round with Danny Noppert.

Joyce has checked out at 67% and 69% in his opening games, also boasting a similar starting success. His scoring may let him down at times, but his efficiency on the outer ring can’t be ignored and we are basically backing Joyce to pick up a set here with Aspinall being a clear favourite according to the market, which is something I challenge.

Jonny Clayton produced one of the best performances I’ve seen on the World Grand Prix stage against Wessel Nijman last time out.

It’s not an average that will go down in the history books (93.08), but he hit 8+ 180s and notably took out 4+ 100+ checkouts - the highest being a 126 checkout. He also missed two further 100+ checkouts on the final dart, suggesting that he’s well placed to contribute another high checkout here.

Price is also really good when it comes to taking out high checkouts. He nailed 3+ 100+ checkouts in his win over Sebastien Bialecki in the opening round and looks the strongest of any player heading into these quarter final ties.

These two know each other very well, and will both be incredibly motivated to pick up a major having been without a big trophy for some time. It may come down to the big finishes here, as there really isn’t much between the top two players in Wales.

I can only see this game going all the way.

It’s the tightest tie of the night for me, and that’s reflected in the odds with Wade being a marginal favourite to progress to the semi finals (1.80-2.00). 

Gian van Veen has beaten Dirk van Duijvenbode and Ryan Searle across the opening rounds, and hasn’t even touched his best level but has still found a way to win the game.

I’ve noticed this trait with Gian van Veen more often over the last year or so, he definitely isn’t playing at the level he was when he reached the World Championship final - but he’s finding a way to beat players when he isn’t at his best, taking out multiple clutch finishes against Ryan Searle last time out.

Wade has been his usual efficient self in the opening rounds, dispatching Bunting and Cullen with relative ease - though he did drop a set in both of those games. Wade has shown moments of vulnerability in these games which I think van Veen can take advantage of more than Bunting and Cullen managed.

These two have faced off twice this year with Gian van Veen winning both games, interestingly knocking out James Wade at the quarter final stage of both the World Masters and the World Matchplay. The meeting at the Matchplay most recently ended 16-13.

Niels Zonneveld deserves real credit for reaching this stage of the World Grand Prix on debut, it’s such a difficult competition to find momentum in on your debut as even players like Littler and Van Veen have seen over recent years but Zonneveld looks really relaxed and dispatched an out of sorts Gary Anderson last time out. 

Unfortunately for Zonneveld, he now runs into the favourite to win the World Grand Prix in Luke Humphries who easily breezed past Jermaine Wattimena last time out without any real danger. There was a point in the game where Humphries’ starting success was a joke, entering through double 16 on almost every occasion - even hitting a 10 darter in the game.

Humphries and Price look like the best two players in the field right now. Zonneveld is going to struggle to repeat his heroics from the first two rounds against Rock and Anderson unless Humphries’ levels dramatically drop - which I can’t see happening with the focus and determination he’s playing with right now. 

Ross County have been scoring goals for fun this season and they can record another win with room to spare when they host Alloa in Scottish League One on Saturday.

The Staggies have won six and drawn one of their opening seven league games of the season.

They have scored multiple goals in each of their last five league wins, including a resounding 8-0 victory over Queen of the South in their last home game.

Stuart Kettlewell’s side also flexed their attacking muscles in the Scottish Challenge Cup last weekend, running out emphatic 14-0 winners against Hearts B.

That should leave confidence sky high in the County camp ahead of a meeting with an Alloa side who have tailed off of late.

The Wasps have lost their last two league games, going down 2-1 at home to East Kilbride last time out. 

That adds to the appeal of backing free-scoring Ross County to win with over 1.5 goals.

Livingston look well placed to continue building momentum by beating Ayr United at home on Saturday.

A slow start to the season cost Glen Whelan his job, but the Lions have found their feet since former manager David Martindale took charge on an interim basis.

Martindale has long been a shrewd operator in the Scottish game, and he has wasted little time steadying the ship, overseeing wins away at Morton and Raith Rovers either side of a home draw with Inverness.

As for Ayr United, their encouraging start to the season is in danger of becoming a distant memory.

The Honest Men have lost four of their last six league matches, including away defeats at both Raith Rovers and Partick Thistle.

Gary Naysmith’s side also lost 1-0 at home to Stenhousemuir last Friday night, and I can see them leaving West Lothian empty-handed.

A solid selection in my previous Northern Ireland bet builders in this break, both narrow losers due to Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s missed penalty and Milos Kerkez not being fouled, Price to have two or more shots looks generous once again.

The lively dribbler has had three shots in each of NI’s matches in this international window, landing this bet in the first half on both of those occasions.

Ukraine have not been as good as four points from two games suggests.

They kept a clean sheet despite allowing Hungary 2.03 xG in a 1-0 away win, before generating just 0.20 xG to Georgia’s 0.96 away from home on Monday.

Ukraine have to win by two goals or more for this bet to lose.

Northern Ireland’s away record has been shocking in recent years, which hints towards why they’re such a big price at Ukraine (in Slovakia).

But they got their first away win in over a year last week and backed it up with a diligent performance to draw 0-0 with Hungary at home.

The bet has landed in seven of their last nine competitive games, with only away trips to Italy and Germany seeing it lose.

Even in those games, Italy didn’t go 2-0 up, how it finished, until the 80th minute and NI were drawing 1-1 with Germany heading into the 69th minute, eventually losing 3-1.

Neither side have conceded yet in this Nations League campaign, both sides have only scored once from two games, a comfortable win doesn’t look on the cards to me.

Galbraith is taking his increased attacking threat at club level into international football.

Registering over 1.50 shots per 90 (1.66) in the league last season for the first time in his career.

In the last five seasons he has scored:

22/23: Four in League Two
23/24: Four in League One
24/25: Six in League One
25/26: Three in the Championship
26/27: Three in the Championship (already)

He’s had a shot from range in each game so far this break, and he had three shots across the final three games of NI’s unsuccessful World Cup qualifying campaign.

As touched on, Ukraine are giving up chances despite not conceding and continuity to allow the opposition territory will open up spaces for Galbraith to pick up the ball, finding those spaces in the first place being one of his biggest strengths as a player, and take aim at goal.

Donley is leading the line with a lot of heart and endeavour, but without being a huge attacking threat for the opposition to worry about.

He has committed six fouls in six competitive appearances for Northern Ireland, with this bet landing in all six of those games with a Super Sub feature active (five of six even without it).

Donley committed two fouls in the 1-0 win in Georgia, before being replaced by Josh Magennis after 73 minutes who then went on to foul once.

Ukraine won 12 fouls in Hungary and 13 in Georgia, and will expect to have the majority of the ball in this match.

Striker is one of NI’s weakest positions and Donley may be getting encouraged to give it everything he has with and without the ball, as he plays in midfield at club level, before being replaced by a more experienced target man.

Magennis has comfortably fouled more than once per 90 across the last four completed Nations League campaigns for NI.

These nations faced off in the group stages of the World Cup in a clash that produced six goals with England coming away 4-2 winners - but looking far from settled at the back.

Croatia’s xG of 0.70 probably doesn’t reflect the issues that Croatia caused England in that game, they were able to get behind England’s high line on multiple occasions and managed five shots on target in total.

They have a new manager at the helm in Slaven Bilic, and he has an exciting group of players to work with who may not be at the level of the Croatia side that reached the World Cup final in 2018, but certainly has promise to develop into another decent team.

Croatia have seen BTTS in both of their Nations League games so far, notably managing to breach Spain’s backline last time out - which is the best defensive unit in Europe.

Czechia actually looked like they could cause England some problems before Sulc’s early red card which changed the course of the game. England have scored in each of their last eight matches, so finding the back of the net shouldn’t be an issue. 

Harry Kane scored from two shots on target to secure England’s 2-0 win over Czechia last time out after Anthony Gordon had given the Three Lions the lead.

He’s an obvious choice in the shot on target market, and I’m a bit surprised at this price given how consistent Kane is for England and how big of a jump it is from backing Kane for a single effort on target (1.14).

Kane netted a brace from seven shots against Croatia when these nations met in the group stage of the World Cup, seeing three of those efforts find the target. 

Kane’s record at international level is simply exceptional, he’s netted 87 goals across 123 caps with six goals across seven starts at the most recent World Cup. He averaged 3.17 shots per 90 during the tournament, which is a healthy shot average when looking to back him for a couple of efforts on target here.

One of the more underrated parts of Kane’s game is how good he is at drawing contact from opponents when he drops into deeper pockets.

We know that Tuchel really wants Kane to do this often, he allowed him to come back into midfield areas all the time at Bayern - and has sculpted something similar with England, giving Kane runners like Gordon and Saka acting as outlets he can find with his impressive passing range.

Kane often drags a centre back with him when dropping into these pockets, which creates the perfect scenario for fouls as Kane can wait for the centre back to initiate contact and will go down even if it’s not a particularly ferocious challenge.

Kane drew nine fouls across his seven starts in the World Cup over the summer, including winning a foul against Croatia as England came away 4-2 winners. He also maintained an average of 1.21 fouls won per 90 in the Bundesliga last season, showing consistency in his game across club and country.

I really like Luka Vuskovic and I’m still struggling to work out why Tottenham sold him over the summer. He’s a really impressive centre back, but one of his main traits that stands out to me is his shot volume for a defender.

Vuskovic is such a threat from set pieces, he’s already scored one goal for Brighton in the Premier League this season from eight shots (1.64 per 90). That shot average is very rare for a centre back, even the most impressive aerial threats usually sit around 0.70 or 0.80 shots per 90 average.

Vuskovic played for Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga last season, scoring six goals across 27 starts - which is a return that you wouldn’t scoff at for a midfielder. He took 32 shots across those games, working out to an average of 1.18 shots per 90.

Vuskovic has also shown his shooting ability in the Nations League, taking two shots against Czechia as Croatia secured a 2-1 victory in their opening game.

Look for Aaron Hickey to attempt at least one shot against North Macedonia on Saturday night.

Hickey is expected to be restored to the starting XI, which should see him slot back into his right wing-back role.

That position gives him plenty of licence to get forward, as we saw against Slovenia last Saturday when he registered 2 shots.

This game could follow a similar tactical pattern, with Scotland having to probe patiently for openings, which should give Hickey opportunities to get forward and try his luck.

Adding weight to this selection is the fact that Hickey attempted 3 shots across his four starts for Scotland during World Cup qualifying, while he also got a shot away against Liverpool in his only Premier League start for Brentford this season.

For similar reasons, I'm also backing Andy Robertson to attempt at least one shot.

Pocognoli's wing-back system encourages the Scotland captain to push forward, and he has registered 1 shot in each of the Scots' opening two Nations League matches.

There was encouragement before the managerial change too, with Robertson getting at least 1 effort away in three of Scotland's final four pre-World Cup friendlies.

He has also registered a shot in two of his four Premier League starts for Tottenham this season, adding to the appeal of this angle. 

With North Macedonia likely to sit deep, Robertson should have opportunities to get forward and have a go at goal on Saturday night.

With Andy Robertson likely to find himself in advanced areas regularly during this contest, he should also have opportunities to win free kicks.

Robertson has been fouled once in each of Scotland's opening two Nations League matches, while he also earned his side a free kick in their World Cup opener against Haiti earlier this summer.

It's also worth noting that he drew 2 fouls in Tottenham's opening Premier League game of the season away at Brentford.

He is likely to come up against Andrej Stojchevski, who has committed a foul in each of North Macedonia's opening two Nations League matches and picked up a yellow card against Slovenia last time out.

McBurnie puts in plenty of work up front when holding up the ball and running the channels, but can give away cheap free kicks in the process. 

Indeed, McBurnie has committed 2 fouls in each of Scotland's opening two Nations League matches.

His Premier League figures for Hull this season also make for encouraging reading, particularly away from home. 

He has committed multiple fouls in two of the Tigers' three top-flight road games this term, including their trip to Newcastle just before the international break. 

McBurnie is likely to find himself in a physical battle with imposing North Macedonia defender Anes Meljichi. 

The young defender was fouled against Slovenia last time out, providing further support for this selection.

Kieron Bowie looks worth backing to register at least one shot on target.

Unfortunately for Bowie, he was sacrificed after Jack Hendry's early red card against Switzerland on Tuesday night, but he showed signs of promise even during his short stint on the pitch.

The same was true when he came off the bench against Slovenia last weekend, registering 2 efforts on target.

He's a real handful up front and likes to get shots away, something that has already been apparent in Serie A this season.

Indeed, Bowie has registered 9 shots across his five appearances, finding the net when he came off the bench against Juventus last month.

Bowie should get ample opportunity to test the goalkeeper against a North Macedonia side that have conceded 16 shots on target across their opening two Nations League matches.

The all-action Scotland midfielder tends to find himself in the thick of things, which regularly sees him win free kicks.

That has already been apparent across Scotland's opening two Nations League matches, with Ferguson brought down twice away to Slovenia last Saturday and once against Switzerland on Tuesday night.

Further encouragement comes from the fact that he drew 10 fouls across Scotland's three matches at the World Cup earlier this year, earning no fewer than 6 free kicks against Haiti.

He has also drawn an average of 1.00 fouls per game for Bologna in Serie A this season.

Ferguson is likely to be closely watched by North Macedonia's Jani Atanasov, who committed 1 foul and picked up a yellow card against Slovenia on Tuesday night.

I'm keen to back Oli McBurnie to commit at least one foul.

The Scotland forward is renowned for leading the line with plenty of intensity and aggression, and that has certainly been on show since his recall under Sebastian Pocognoli.

McBurnie has committed exactly 2 fouls in each of Scotland's opening two Nations League matches.

That comes as no major surprise given his domestic figures this season. 

He has committed at least 1 foul in each of Hull's opening five Premier League matches, overstepping the mark twice in two of those contests.

McBurnie could be drawn into a physical battle with young North Macedonia defender Anes Meljichi, who was fouled once during Tuesday night's defeat to Slovenia.

Admittedly, this game may not jump off the page as one that will be full of goalmouth action, but I think over 1.5 goals should be within range on Saturday night.

Both nations have made sluggish starts to their Nations League campaigns and already need to push for victory, which should help open the game up.

Moreover, each of North Macedonia's opening two Nations League matches has produced over 1.5 goals, as did seven of their nine assignments during World Cup qualifying.

As for Scotland, they shipped three goals at home to Switzerland on Tuesday night, having also conceded three against Brazil in their final World Cup match earlier this summer.

What's more, five of the Scots' six World Cup qualifiers also produced over 1.5 goals, further strengthening the case for a repeat in Skopje.

I'm backing Eljif Elmas to be fouled at least once against Scotland on Saturday night.

The North Macedonia attacker has the quality to cause Scotland problems, so they will need to keep close tabs on him. 

He has lined up on the left wing in the hosts' opening two Nations League matches, drawing 1 foul against Switzerland last Saturday.

Notably, the Atalanta man was brought down 9 times across eight appearances during the regular stage of World Cup qualifying, making him one of his country's most fouled players.

Elmas is likely to come up against Aaron Hickey, who has committed 3 fouls across his last three competitive starts for Scotland, adding to the appeal of this selection.

Huddersfield are a bigger price this weekend because they’re missing Joe Taylor due to his international duty with Wales.

However, their process has been so good this season that they are still likely to generate opportunities even without their leading marksman.

These two are only separated by one position in the table, but there are 18 places between them based on expected points.

Burton have the 3rd-worst attack in the league on xG generated, unsustainably overperforming to score 13 goals from 7.40 xG, that positive variance will run out eventually unless they start creating more chances.

Huddersfield have generated the 4th-most xG in the league, and they’ve played one less than a lot of sides.

I want to take on the joint-2nd best defence in League Two, because Crewe’s defensive process leaves a lot to be desired.

They have unsustainably overperformed at the back to concede only six goals from 11.3 xG conceded.

They’ve conceded in each of their last six games now, with the regression to the mean clear to see and they welcome a Bristol Rovers side on Saturday who’ve generated the 4th-most xG in the division.

Rovers have scored 13 goals from 14.3 xG so far this season, nothing concerning there, 1.79 xG for per game is respectable and if sustained, without defensive collapses, will have them competing towards the top end.

The price is bigger because they’ve blanked in their last two league away games, but we’re still working with small sample sizes and the two away games before that they looked like one of the best attacks in the division.

Scoring two in each of their first two league away trips, posting 1.83 xG at York and 1.98 at Crawley.

This bet has landed for Exeter’s opposition in seven of their eight League Two games so far this season.

Rotherham have only lost one of their last eight coming into this match, and that was a narrow 1-0 defeat at 3rd-placed Bristol Rovers - one of the tougher games on this season’s fixture list.

Rotherham rank 4th on expected points compared to Exeter in 13th, and some positive variance should see them knock on the door of the play-off places, having underperformed in both boxes this season.

They’ve conceded 11 goals from 8.50 xG conceded so far, the 4th-best defensive process in the division.

They’ve avoided defeat in six of eight so far, and will back themselves to do so again when they visit an Exeter side who’ve only won one of eight (12.5%) in the league.

Salford pulled off a statement win last weekend, beating a highly-rated Oldham side 4-1 away from home in front of the Sky cameras.

They’ve now won four of their last five, since beginning the campaign with three consecutive defeats, winning their last three at home.

Fleetwood have benefited from their opposition fluffing their lines, unsustainably overperforming to concede only nine goals so far from 15 xG conceded.

That is unlikely to last against one of the most high profile attacks League Two has seen in recent years, especially if they’re unable to shut up shop.

Salford were pre-season favourites to win the title, and they’ll start going off a lot shorter than this if they continue their good form.

Jude Bellingham was brilliant in England’s opening game of the Nations League against Spain, setting up Anthony Gordon’s goal with a brilliant through ball on the counter attack.

Bellingham created five chances in that game, and also won England’s penalty which was one of four fouls he won in the game. He also collected a yellow card in that game from the one foul he did commit, and this is a good price to back Bellingham for a goal or caution again in this clash.

Bellingham had two shots on target in that clash against Spain. He enjoyed a really strong World Cup campaign, scoring seven goals across seven starts as well as collecting one yellow card during the tournament. One of Bellingham’s goals at the World Cup came against Croatia, with the Real Madrid man having 3+ shots in that game.

I really like Martin Baturina and think he will be the next player to earn a big money move from Como having really impressed at the Serie A club last season and started this campaign well.

He’s registered five goal contributions across six starts for Como already this season, taking 11 shots across his five starts in Serie A (3.68 per 90), seeing four of these efforts find the target (1.34 per 90). 

Baturina caused England plenty of problems when these nations met in the group stage of the World Cup over the summer, scoring the equaliser from distance to get Croatia back in the game before England eventually managed to come away 4-2 winners.

Marin Pongracic was dragged all over the place by Lamine Yamal and Mikel Oyarzabal against Spain last time out, being shown a yellow card for the one foul he committed before Bilic decided he had seen enough and removed him at half time.

Luka Vuskovic came on in his place and also struggled to contain the Spain frontline, committing one foul. I think he’ll struggle to contain Saka and Kane here as the left sided centre back with both England attackers being strong when it comes to winning fouls. 

Vuskovic struggled against England in the World Cup over the summer, committing one foul which he was very fortunate to avoid a booking for and being in the wrong positions when England came forward, making Tuchel’s side deadly on the counter attack as they scored four goals.

Vuskovic played his football in the Bundesliga for Hoffenheim last season, collecting six yellow cards across his 27 starts in the division while maintaining an average of 1.07 fouls committed per 90. 

These nations faced off in the group stages of the World Cup in a clash that produced six goals with England coming away 4-2 winners - but looking far from settled at the back.

Croatia’s xG of 0.70 probably doesn’t reflect the issues that Croatia caused England in that game, they were able to get behind England’s high line on multiple occasions and managed five shots on target in total.

They have a new manager at the helm in Slaven Bilic, and he has an exciting group of players to work with who may not be at the level of the Croatia side that reached the World Cup final in 2018, but certainly has promise to develop into another decent team.

Croatia have seen BTTS in both of their Nations League games so far, notably managing to breach Spain’s backline last time out - which is the best defensive unit in Europe.

Czechia actually looked like they could cause England some problems before Sulc’s early red card which changed the course of the game. England have scored in each of their last eight matches, so finding the back of the net shouldn’t be an issue. 

Switzerland are comfortably the best side in this group and have won both of their games against North Macedonia and Scotland 3-0.

They’ve been very comfortable in these games, dominating the underlying numbers in both matches and I think they punish a Slovenia side who relied on Jan Oblak to keep Scotland out in their opening game of the Nations League.

Switzerland are really a Nations League A side, they reached the quarter finals of the World Cup over the summer and still have a really well balanced squad that is good enough to record a third straight victory in this group.

These nations faced off during World Cup qualifying last year, with Switzerland avoiding defeat in both games and coming away 3-0 winners when they welcomed Slovenia in Basel - conceding just one shot on target and an xG of 0.19.

These nations faced off in the group stages of the World Cup in a clash that produced six goals with England coming away 4-2 winners - but looking far from settled at the back.

Croatia’s xG of 0.70 probably doesn’t reflect the issues that Croatia caused England in that game, they were able to get behind England’s high line on multiple occasions and managed five shots on target in total.

They have a new manager at the helm in Slaven Bilic, and he has an exciting group of players to work with who may not be at the level of the Croatia side that reached the World Cup final in 2018, but certainly has promise to develop into another decent team.

Croatia have seen BTTS in both of their Nations League games so far, notably managing to breach Spain’s backline last time out - which is the best defensive unit in Europe.

Czechia actually looked like they could cause England some problems before Sulc’s early red card which changed the course of the game. England have scored in each of their last eight matches, so finding the back of the net shouldn’t be an issue. 

Spain are really heavy favourites to win here as you’d expect (1.071), so there’s little value in backing them in the win market or even looking at a high goal line.

I’m instead going for an angle that I still think Czechia can contribute to here given their over reliance on set pieces and corners in particular as an avenue to goal. No side scored a higher percentage of their goals from set pieces during qualifying than Czechia, while they also conceded 6+ corners to England last time out.

Spain could easily cover this line themselves, they focus a lot of their build up through the wide areas with Yamal and Williams/Baena being really effective outlets for Luis de la Fuente’s side.

Spain saw 9+ corners in their opening game of the Nations League campaign against England, also seeing 8+ corners against Croatia last time out.

It’s far too early to judge Sebastien Pocognoli given that he’s only had two games in charge of the national team, but it’s fair to say that it’s yet to go to plan with Scotland failing to beat Slovenia in his opening game and falling to a 3-0 defeat against Switzerland last time out.

They did drop down to 10 men quite early on in that loss to the strongest side in the group, and Pocognoli looked like a very frustrated man throughout the game - collecting a yellow card himself for taking issue with the referee just before half time. 

That said, I saw enough in the second half of Scotland’s draw with Slovenia to suggest that Scotland can find the back of the net here and score the first goal of the Pocognoli era. 

They generated an xG of 2.16 from 17 shots in that 0-0 draw, and are certainly capable of scoring against a North Macedonia side who have lost both of their games to nil so far - conceding 2+ goals in both games.

North Macedonia have carried little to no threat across these games, conceding an xG of 1.97 against Slovenia - which would suggest that they will struggle with the attacking capabilities of this Scotland side, who have been unlucky not to score under their new boss.

Switzerland are comfortably the best side in this group and have won both of their games against North Macedonia and Scotland 3-0.

They’ve been very comfortable in these games, dominating the underlying numbers in both matches and I think they punish a Slovenia side who relied on Jan Oblak to keep Scotland out in their opening game of the Nations League.

Switzerland are really a Nations League A side, they reached the quarter finals of the World Cup over the summer and still have a really well balanced squad that is good enough to record a third straight victory in this group.

These nations faced off during World Cup qualifying last year, with Switzerland avoiding defeat in both games and coming away 3-0 winners when they welcomed Slovenia in Basel - conceding just one shot on target and an xG of 0.19.

These teams are on the same points after eight games (11), but a lot more separates them when you drill into the xG numbers.

Chesterfield have scored one more goal than Tranmere, but have generated over 7 xG more than them - they’re the side with the more sustainable process in the final third, they create chances more regularly.

A 6 xG underperformance isn’t ideal, but they’ve generated the 2nd-most xG in the league, xG can look noisy from smaller sample sizes, and it’s a gap they should close if they keep creating chances to this level.

Tranmere have conceded only eight goals from 11.1 xG, a three-goal overperformance, Harrison Male has looked good between the sticks, conceding only twice from 3.47 xGOT but it is not something Rovers can rely on to this extent if they’re to hang around in the top half.

Chesterfield should have too much for them if they can find their shooting boots.

Huddersfield are a bigger price this weekend because they’re missing Joe Taylor due to his international duty with Wales.

However, their process has been so good this season that they are still likely to generate opportunities even without their leading marksman.

These two are only separated by one position in the table, but there are 18 places between them based on expected points.

Burton have the 3rd-worst attack in the league on xG generated, unsustainably overperforming to score 13 goals from 7.40 xG, that positive variance will run out eventually unless they start creating more chances.

Huddersfield have generated the 4th-most xG in the league, and they’ve played one less than a lot of sides.

Salford pulled off a statement win last weekend, beating a highly-rated Oldham side 4-1 away from home in front of the Sky cameras.

They’ve now won four of their last five, since beginning the campaign with three consecutive defeats, winning their last three at home.

Fleetwood have benefited from their opposition fluffing their lines, unsustainably overperforming to concede only nine goals so far from 15 xG conceded.

That is unlikely to last against one of the most high profile attacks League Two has seen in recent years, especially if they’re unable to shut up shop.

Salford were pre-season favourites to win the title, and they’ll start going off a lot shorter than this if they continue their good form.

Livingston look well placed to continue building momentum by beating Ayr United at home on Saturday.

A slow start to the season cost Glen Whelan his job, but the Lions have found their feet since former manager David Martindale took charge on an interim basis.

Martindale has long been a shrewd operator in the Scottish game, and he has wasted little time steadying the ship, overseeing wins away at Morton and Raith Rovers either side of a home draw with Inverness.

As for Ayr United, their encouraging start to the season is in danger of becoming a distant memory.

The Honest Men have lost four of their last six league matches, including away defeats at both Raith Rovers and Partick Thistle.

Gary Naysmith’s side also lost 1-0 at home to Stenhousemuir last Friday night, and I can see them leaving West Lothian empty-handed.

England have been impressive in spurts but not spectacular this international break.

They’ve beaten Croatia in their last three meetings with them, scoring two or more goals in two of those games.

Croatia made hard work of Czechia to begin the break, winning 2-1, before only managing five shots in a 4-1 defeat in Spain.

Odds around 1.80 on the England win feel attackable considering their recent record against this kind of opposition, their 4-2 win over Croatia at the World Cup was a demolition, winning the xG battle 3.20-0.70 on that occasion.

Thomas Tuchel rotated his squad in the 2-0 win in Czechia, which should keep them in good shape for a game that could end up deciding who progresses from this Nations League group.

This is the joint-4th versus the 3rd-highest scoring team in League One.

This fixture last season finished 3-1 to Plymouth, with BTTS landing in first half additional time.

The bet won in four consecutive games for Orient before their last outing, a 1-0 home win over Stevenage.

Orient have seen BTTS in three of four home league games and have scored in all seven league games so far.

Plymouth are yet to keep a clean sheet from four league away games, and are odds-on favourites to take three points back to Devon.

Cheltenham have seen BTTS in all eight of their League Two games so far this season.

Cheltenham and Barnet are the only sides in the league to see BTTS in 100% of their league outings so far, and they’re the top two in the league.

Does that send a message for the rest of the teams to be a bit more open and attacking?

Accy haven’t been shy either when it comes to BTTS, it’s won in six of their eight and despite scoring five less goals than Cheltenham, they’ve generated just under 3 xG more than them.

The bet has landed in six of Accy’s last seven, and it came in after just 31 minutes in their 1-1 draw at Swindon last Saturday.

Rochdale have improved significantly in the last month or so, winning three of five in the league after a very concerning run of three defeats to begin the campaign.

We’re getting bigger odds for this bet because Swindon are yet to score in four league away games this season.

However, I’m happy to take that on, they’ve failed to score from 1.88 xG on the road, and they’ve been a very good attacking side in their home games - scoring nine goals from 7.42 xG.

I expect sides to be better at home, more often than not, but I don’t see the away trips negatively impacting them to this extent over a larger sample.

Ian Holloway has been known for throwing caution to the wind with his footballing philosophy down the years, and they’ve only kept one clean sheet from their eight league outings, supporting this angle into the fixture.

These nations faced off in the group stages of the World Cup in a clash that produced six goals with England coming away 4-2 winners - but looking far from settled at the back.

Croatia’s xG of 0.70 probably doesn’t reflect the issues that Croatia caused England in that game, they were able to get behind England’s high line on multiple occasions and managed five shots on target in total.

They have a new manager at the helm in Slaven Bilic, and he has an exciting group of players to work with who may not be at the level of the Croatia side that reached the World Cup final in 2018, but certainly has promise to develop into another decent team.

Croatia have seen BTTS in both of their Nations League games so far, notably managing to breach Spain’s backline last time out - which is the best defensive unit in Europe.

Czechia actually looked like they could cause England some problems before Sulc’s early red card which changed the course of the game. England have scored in each of their last eight matches, so finding the back of the net shouldn’t be an issue. 

The long-awaited debut of Johnny Walker at heavyweight.

His light heavyweight run had people tipping him as the one who could dethrone Jon Jones.

A loss of focus and a suspect chin put an end to that, but I can see him having a new lease of life at heavyweight.

Mick Parkin is fighting for the first time in over a year since his disappointing loss to heavyweight gatekeeper Marcin Tybura at UFC London.

He looked second-best in that fight against Tybura, who is the litmus test as to whether you are a top-ten heavyweight.

I don’t think this will be pretty, but I can see Walker getting it done.

He’ll be too long and awkward for Parkin, and I think Walker at heavyweight is an interesting spice-up to the division that needs an injection of life.

This is the standout fight on the card for me; the long-awaited UFC debut of Roberto Soldic.

The Croatian was a two-weight world champion in KSW, and even holds a KO win over former UFC Middleweight Champion Dricus du Plessis.

Khaos Williams is a real fan favourite, with his power and highlight-reel KOs.

He’s one of those fighters for whom his record has never been a factor; the company likes him for his entertainment.

All things considered, it feels the UFC have given Soldic a favourable stylistic matchup.

He’s a fighter with a big reputation, so it serves the UFC if he wins this.

This pricing largely comes down to the fact that King Green, to his credit, is on a four-fight win streak.

He somehow overcame Terrance McKinney in his last fight despite looking like he was going to be TKO’d in the first round.

That being said, I feel this run works in our favour in terms of inflating the bookmaker’s price for a Ribovics finish.

Argentine Ribovics easily retired legend Edson Barboza in his last fight with a first-round finish, and is yet to lose a fight by KO/TKO in his young career.

Green will come into this fight as he always does: hands down and implementing his self-professed ‘hood’ style.

He got lucky in his last fight against McKinney, but I see Ribovics as a much more polished fighter, and I think this is great value at these odds.

Whilst many people seem to be hating on this fight as a main event (rightly so for a numbered card), I think there is still value to be had in backing Natalia Silva to win the vacant UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship.

Silva has been on a roll since joining the organisation in 2022, winning eight straight, including her last three, which have been against former UFC champions (Rose Namajunas, Alexa Grasso, and Jessica Andrade).

Cong is no slouch in her own right, having won four straight since her submission loss to Gabriella Fernandes in 2024.

This is a case of backing the more proven fighter, and Silva’s recent CV is that of a ready-made champion.