Derby are showing signs of improvement under John Eustace, especially going forwards, which is a boon for this angle.

It is understandable that bookmaker models may expect a low goal line at Pride Park because Derby have just come off a run of eight matches in a row in which neither team have scored more than once, and their last two home matches have ended 1-0 to the Rams, but digging a little deeper there are reasons to expect more than one goal here.

Firstly, Derby have created four big chances in each of their last two matches. They obviously scored three on Saturday at Sheffield United via a Carlton Morris hat-trick, indeed, Morris has now scored their last four goals, but Ben Brereton and Patrick Agyemang are adding a lot to the Derby attack as well. The fact that Derby have scored in six of their last seven matches as well means that we may only need a minimum of one goal from the visitors.

Hull are goalsy. Even whilst they have been missing arguably their best player in Oli McBurnie, they have continued to score goals, and they concede them a fair bit as well. Joe Gelhardt has really stepped up and fulfilled his potential in this Hull set-up as well, scoring in four Championship matches in a row. Hull have seen 42 goals go in in their 13 matches so far, an average of 3.23 goals per game.

It is also worth mentioning that Hull are clear at the bottom of the league for xG conceded, 27 xG against in 13 matches, 3 xG more than the next worst, Sheffield Wednesday.

Despite the apparent goals repellent quality of Pride Park, I am expecting chances and goals here based on Hull, and also Derby’s recent attacking verve.

The unbeaten record has gone, but there is no need for panic at Coventry. Indeed, it is sometimes something of a relief to not have to defend an unbeaten record any longer and I am certain that the message from the loss to Wrexham would have been one of getting back on the pitch ASAP to rectify the issues.

Having watched the match on Friday there was something of the chickens coming home to roost about what happened. Even though Coventry have been statistically better than the rest of the fivision, it hasn’t actually been as dominant as the likes of last season’s Leeds United, or Vincent Kompany’s Burnley team, or the Fulham promotion team of 2021/22. They were overperforming their xG at both ends, and Wrexham, and Kieffer Moore in particular, became the ones to finally take advantage of their chances.

What is ahead on Tuesday night is a completely different set of circumstances. Coventry are at home, where they do remain unbeaten of course, and they face a team who continue to look devoid of answers on the pitch, despite Chris Wilder’s return, and who also lack a physical weapon in the centre forward position to bully their central defenders. So from a form, confidence, and tactical point of view, i give Coventry the edge here.

Sheff Utd lost at home to Derby on Saturday, and the major difference between the teams was the fact that both teams created four big chances, United took one, Derby scored three of them. To be conceding four big chances to Derby is also clearly an issue, despite the Rams showing signs of improvement, so there are continuing issues at both ends for Wilder to solve. This is another reason to expect Coventry to win this match.

There is a slight element of danger here, purely because Union are a dangerous side capable of scoring goals. The Atletico defence has probably been more leaky than Simeone would like, but they’ve now kept three clean sheets in their last three league games, there is some obvious improvement in that department.

Even when Atletico conceded goals in three consecutive home games in September, they won all those matches. An Atletico win and Union St Gilloise corners should be complimenting variables and add another layer of logic here. 

With Union being resoundingly beaten 4-0 by both Inter Milan and Newcastle, there’s big question marks over their defence here, their adventure in and out of possession does usually leave them heavily exposed, and this Atletico side has enough quality to exploit those deficiencies. 

Atletico have been deadly in home games across the league and Champions League, scoring twenty goals across just seven games, that’s almost an average of three a game.

Having already touched upon Atletico’s ruthlessness on home soil this season, there’s reason to believe we could rack up a decent goal count here. This is a team that scored five goals against Real Madrid last month in a 5-2 victory, while also dispatched of Frankfurt 5-1 in the same stadium just a few days later. 

While I was tempted to go over 2 Atletico goals for a slightly bigger price, I still believe there’s reason to think Union St Gilloise could get on the scoresheet here, it’s hardly surprising given that they’ve scored 28 goals across thirteen games in the Belgian Pro League. Incidentally, games which have involved the opposition scoring at the Metropolitano Stadium have featured an average of four goals this season. 

Compounding Atletico’s ruthlessness together with Union St Gilloise’s humbling defeats to Newcastle and Inter Milan makes this a fairly logical play, the home side haven’t been showing much mercy this season.

PSG saw nine goals in their most recent Champions League outing as they ran out 7-2 winners in a crazy fixture against Leverkusen in which both sides received a red card. 

Luis Enrique’s side have seen 3+ goals in all three of their Champions League matches so far against Atalanta, Barcelona and Leverkusen - winning all three of these matches.

Bayern have been the most impressive side in Europe so far this season as illustrated by their 14 game winning run which is the longest stretch of any European side at the moment. 

What is most impressive about this run, is that Bayern have scored 3+ goals themselves in 13 of these matches with over 2.5 goals landing in all 13. The only game in which they failed to score at least three goals was their 2-1 win over Dortmund a few weeks ago.

Liverpool's clean sheet in their previous match against Aston Villa was just their third of the season in all competitions. While the defensive performance appeared more settled, with the Reds allowing an expected goals of just 0.41 at Anfield, their backline is expected to face another significant challenge in this upcoming fixture.

For Real Madrid, both teams have scored in two of their last five matches across all competitions, specifically against top-tier La Liga sides Barcelona and Villarreal. This trend also featured in their opening Champions League matchday against Marseille. Real will be confident in their ability to score, having netted eight goals in their three Champions League matches so far.

Liverpool's own attacking threat remains evident, with the team scoring eight goals in their last five outings. The victory over Aston Villa should provide a timely confidence boost as they enter a crucial part of their season, which includes a forthcoming match against Manchester City.

Giorgi Mamardashvili was forced into making three saves against Aston Villa last time out as Liverpool ended their barren run and claimed a 2-0 win over Unai Emery’s side at Anfield. He’s been tested regularly while filling in for Alisson, who remains sidelined with an injury he picked up in this competition against Galatasaray.

Mamardashvilli has been forced into making 14 saves across his four appearances in the Premier League this season (3.50 per 90).

Real Madrid have drawn 28 saves from the opposition keeper across their three games in the Champions League this season (9.3 per game). This is a relentless record which has seen them test the keeper on at least seven occasions in each encounter.

Vinicius Junior is never too far from controversy, with his latest exploit being a public spat with his manager after being substituted by Xavi Alonso in Real Madrid’s 2-1 win over Barcelona in El Clásico a few weeks ago. Vinicius has since rectified his reputation with the manager and should be in line to start here, having had three shots against Valencia last time out.

Those three attempts took Vini’s shot tally for the season to 30 across his 11 appearances in La Liga this term (3.47 per 90). He’s had at least two shots in eight of those matches (72%). Vinicius boasts a similarly strong shot count in the Champions League this season with eight shots across his three appearances in the competition (3.98 per 90).

This selection is also aided by the fact that Vinicius Jr has an excellent personal record against Liverpool. He scored the winner against them in the Champions League final in 2022 and has also scored a brace on two previous occasions against the Reds. With this in mind, it may also be worth exploring higher shot lines, shots on target, and goal contribution markets for Vinicius here.

Liverpool have had a problem finding the right balance in the full-back areas so far this season, with Conor Bradley/Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez struggling to live up to the dramatically high levels set by Andy Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold in previous campaigns.

Bradley lined up at right back when these sides faced off in the Champions League last season. He was still pretty junior to the first team at that point and put in a quality performance, with a tackle on Kylian Mbappe earning him particular merit. He committed one foul in that game, contesting 13 duels in total.

Bradley has committed 11 fouls across his eight appearances in the Premier League this season (2.20 per 90), so he has retained that aggressive aspect of his game, which was on display in this fixture last season.

Bradley’s direct opponent is likely to be Vinicius, who has won 22 fouls across his 11 appearances in La Liga this term (2.54 per 90). Vinicius has also won two fouls across his three appearances in the Champions League this term (0.99 per 90), so he should be the ideal candidate to draw a foul from Bradley here.

PSG haven’t quite been at their best in recent weeks, but still they sit top of Ligue 1, while boasting a flawless record in the Champions League. Luis Enrique has had to deal with multiple injuries to key players this season, but the Parisians were back at full strength against Nice at the weekend, and they were dominant (despite only winning 1-0). PSG racked up 28 shots - their highest tally of the season so far, with eight of those hitting the target.

Bayern’s record this season speaks for itself - they have been unstoppable. It’s a 1st v 2nd clash here, with both teams tied on nine points with an identical goal difference of +10. There is very little to split the two, making it difficult to pick a winner, but goals look like a target market given how strong these two are in the final third.

PSG were immense at the Parc des Princes in the Champions League last season, which was integral to their success in the competition. The Parisians had a record of five wins, one draw, and two losses, but they managed to hit this mark of at least five shots on target in all eight of their home matches.

In fact, they usually comfortably exceeded this line, averaging 8.25 shots on target per game at home. Even against some of the strongest defences in Europe; Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, and Atletico Madrid, PSG were able to easily carve out clear-cut chances.

They have been able to maintain that output this season, racking up 13 shots on target on matchday one of the Champions League against Atalanta, seven shots on target against Barcelona, and eight against Leverkusen, highlighting just how they are going forward.

Harry Kane, Luis Diaz and Michael Olise were all afforded some rest at the weekend by Vincent Kompany, as they were all introduced only for the final 30 minutes against Bayer Leverkusen. While their services were not really required with Bayern already cruising with a 3-0 lead, Olise accrued a total of three shots in his cameo, and was the most active of the trio in the final third.

In fact, with a total of 57 shots in all competitions this season, no Bayern player has registered more efforts at goal than Olise. After completing his first full campaign at Bayern Munich last season, the 23-year-old looks a lot more settled this term and has been playing with increased confidence. The Frenchman is averaging 4.32 shots per 90, and has landed this bet in 11 out of 13 starts this term.

Nuno Mendes is averaging just 1.25 fouls per 90 this season in all competitions, and has been shown just the single yellow card after 13 appearances, but that came in the Champions League against Barcelona, as the full back struggled to contain the tricky Lamine Yamal.

Olise is averaging 1.59 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and will look to keep Nuno Mendes busy on Tuesday night. The Frenchman is similar to Yamal in the sense that he likes to have the ball at his feet and will aim to beat his man.

Nuno Mendes is a more attack-minded full back and can sometimes be exposed defensively in tougher matchups. Last season, the Portuguese international had an average of 1.38 fouls per 90 in the Champions League at home, landing this selection in six out of eight games with three bookings in that time.

Arsenal’s 2-0 victory over Burnley at the weekend extended their lead at the top of the Premier League to seven points, and the feeling around camp is as positive as ever. The Gunners are unbeaten in their last 12 matches, during which they have secured 11 wins - the only draw came against Man City, but even that was a respectable result against Pep Guardiola’s men. 

Mikel Arteta’s side have picked up notable wins in that stretch, including a 4-0 thrashing of Atletico Madrid and a 2-1 victory away to Newcastle.

Arsenal have made significant improvements under Arteta in recent years - in fact, they faced off against Slavia Prague in the Europa League not too long ago. The Gunners won 4-0 when those sides last met at the Fortuna Arena back in 2021, and the only survivor from that starting XI was Bukayo Saka, who even managed to get on the scoresheet that night.

The Gunners were totally dominant at Turf Moor last weekend, as they beat Burnley 2-0 on their travels. The hosts were unable to give their fans much to get excited about, as they mustered up just three shots which amounted to 0.42 xG. The Clarets were well and truly outclassed, completely suffocated by the visitors and rarely able to progress the ball out of their own half. 

That has been a familiar trend for Mikel Arteta’s men this season - they are conceding just 8.53 shots per game on average in all competitions, and only five out of their 15 opponents have managed at least 10 shots. 

Arsenal have been relentless going forward, and are averaging 4.87 shots on target per 90 this season, rising to 6.33 in the Champions League. The Gunners have hit this mark in seven of their last eight games in all competitions.

Once again, it is likely to be one-way traffic in Czechia on Tuesday night, and the hosts will have to endure wave after wave of attacks against the Premier League leaders. If Slavia opt for a low block and look to play on the counter, they will spend most of the game camped in their own box, which will invite Arsenal’s midfield players into advanced positions. 

Declan Rice becomes a target in games like this - the 26-year-old fancies himself from distance, with five of his nine efforts in the Premier League coming from outside the box, while he will also be on free kicks. 

Rice should be able to pick up some promising positions in and around the edge of the Slavia Prague penalty area, which increases the chances of him taking a shot. Rice has had a shot in each of his last five starts for Arsenal, while he has also scored two goals in that stretch. This match presents a good opportunity for him to improve on those tallies.

Myles Lewis-Skelly hasn’t featured regularly for Arsenal in the Premier League this season, yet to be named in the starting lineup at all, but he has got a big role for midweek games, rotating in for Riccardo Calafiori at left back. 

The Englishman has an incredible history for drawing fouls - including three fouls won against Brighton in his last start, and six fouls drawn against Olympiacos on matchday two of the Champions League. He is averaging 3.22 fouls drawn per 90 this season in limited minutes this term. Even last season, when he featured more regularly, Lewis-Skelly was fouled on average 3.12 times per game in all competitions, with a tendency to go down easily under contact. 

David Moses will be his primary matchup here as a right midfielder, and although his average of 0.9 fouls per 90 in all competitions is nothing to write home about, his matchup here is too hard to ignore.

Thomas Frank’s men haven’t been anywhere near as strong as the league tables suggest, and their performance against Chelsea at the weekend exposed some of the underlying issues that have been masked in recent weeks. Their London rivals were able to fashion chances at will, and the 1-0 scoreline really didn’t do the quality gap between the two sides justice.

The Blues racked up 15 shots and six big chances, forcing a massive eight saves from Guglielmo Vicario. Copenhagen would have watched that horrendous defensive showing, and that will give them confidence for this clash on Tuesday night.

The Danish side have every reason to be front-footed in their approach here, as they currently sit well outside of the qualification spots - realistically, three points will have to be the aim to keep their knockout hopes alive. They have managed to hit this mark in all three Champions League outings so far, including seven shots on target against Leverkusen.

Youssoufa Moukoko is another Copenhagen player who is a target for fouls here - despite his limited minutes so far, he is averaging 1.46 fouls per 90. The 20-year-old has started all three Champions League games and has got stuck into duels on the European stage. He has landed this selection in all three Champions League group stage matches, including one foul against his former club Dortmund in the previous round.

Prior to that, he registered one foul in a 45-minute appearance against Qarabag and two infringements against Bayer Leverkusen. Even in the qualifying rounds, Moukoko racked up six fouls in five appearances, despite only coming off the bench in all of those - he is averaging an eye-catching 2.65 fouls per 90 in the Champions League across eight appearances overall, which is the highest in the Copenhagen squad.

After scoring a brace in the opening game of the season for Spurs, Richarlison hasn’t been able to replicate that kind of performance in any game since, so has fallen out of favour under Thomas Frank. It has been a frustrating period for the Brazilian, as he has only featured from the bench in each of the last four Premier League games. However, he has still had a role to play in midweek fixtures, and Richarlison has led the line for Spurs in all three Champions League outings so far.

In that time, he has committed exactly one foul in all of those games and has been shown two bookings. In fact, Richarlison is averaging 1.41 fouls per 90 this season in all competitions and has registered a foul in eight out of 10 starts, with a tendency to be overly aggressive in his duels.

With regular holding midfielder Thomas Delaney ruled out through injury, Copenhagen have been slightly light on options in the middle of the park, and Mohamed Elyounoussi was tested out alongside Lukas Lerager at the weekend.

The former Southampton man put in a standout performance, playing the full 90 and registering an assist for the decisive goal to help his side secure the three points. After such a positive display, he will be in serious contention to start in midfield again in midweek. In addition to his attacking contributions, Elyounoussi won nine of his 15 duels, while making three fouls and picking up a booking.

He is an incredibly energetic player, and playing in midfield as opposed to upfront is ideal for backing him to commit a foul. Even still, the 31-year-old is averaging 1.27 fouls per 90 this season for Copenhagen, and he has been shown three bookings in his last eight matches alone.