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Andy's Tuesday Accumulator @ 4.72

Wrexham come into this clash having seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, most recently falling to a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Norwich at home. Wrexham’s home games tend to be entertaining, they’ve seen 46 goals across their 14 home games in the Championship this term (3.28 per game).

The meeting between the sides earlier in the season saw BTTS as the teams played out a 1-1 draw. Leicester registered an xG of 1.07 in that clash, with Wrexham not too far behind with an xG of 0.91. The Foxes have also seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception of their 2-0 win in the FA Cup against lower league opposition.

Leicester lost 2-1 on the road against Coventry last time out and have seen 44 goals across their 14 away matches in the Championship this term (3.14 per game). Leicester have won just four of those matches, so we can expect them to be on the back foot here, but they still have enough firepower to get on the scoresheet.

The Parisians really should take the three points here, but I’m playing it slightly safe and taking the double chance market too, just incase Sporting manage to get a draw. We’ve seen Sporting take nine points from nine at home in the Champions League, but with all due respect to the opponents they’ve faced, this is a step up. Kairat Almaty and Club Brugge are minnows, while Marseille played half of the game with 10 men and had the lead when they were level on players.

Sporting are giving up an average of 13.3 shots per game in this competition, some way ahead of PSG’s nine, which is the 2nd-fewest of any team. It’s at the other end of the pitch that this PSG team come alive, and their attack is stacked. They lead the Champions League in shots per game (20) and are 2nd for shots on target (8.0). 

The French side have only lost one game in the Champions League this year, against a very strong Bayern Munich team, and this should be quite easy for them. It’s worth remembering that last year that they started the group stages fairly slowly before exploding after Christmas, winning both remaining league phase games and scoring eight in the process.

This is Ipswich’s fourth home match in a row, and it seems to me that they're peaking at the right time for promotion back to the Premier League.

They weren’t overly convincing against Oxford, but then they hit 32 shots against Blackpool in the FA Cup, and cruised past Blackburn, generating 2.86 xG and creating five big chances in a 3-0 victory.

The Tractor Boys are putting together a really dominant season from an xG perspective at Portman Road. They are averaging 2.09 xG for, and only conceding 0.76 xG against, so a differential of +1.33 xG, meaning that they are creating over 1 xG more chances than their opponents during a game at home. The conversion of this performance hasn’t always been perfect, their 3-0 loss to Charlton was a low point, but they have now won five in a row at home heading into this match.

Have Bristol City got anything to combat this? There is nothing obvious that stands out. Their overall form is up and down, two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five, and the away form is similar. They have won five in 13 Championship away games. They have generated 1.14 xG and 1.33 xG against in away games this season, so it is looking unlikely that City will make much of an impact here and may have to rely on either good fortune or being super clinical to come away with anything.

With Spurs currently in a slump, I think Borussia Dortmund are heading to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium at the perfect time to secure a positive result on Tuesday night.

Moreover, the German giants are currently enjoying an 11-match unbeaten run in the Bundesliga, which stretches back to mid-October. The case for keeping BVB on side is strengthened by the fact that their only defeat in this season’s Champions League came against Manchester City at the Etihad, which is no disgrace.

That doesn't bode well for a Tottenham team that has lost 5 of their last eight matches across all competitions, claiming just 1 victory during that period - a narrow 1-0 win over another struggling side in the shape of Crystal Palace.

The atmosphere at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is turning toxic as pressure mounts on manager Thomas Frank. That tension could spike on Tuesday night against a Borussia Dortmund side stacked with quality and with some real momentum behind them.

Football

Tuesday Champions League Checklist @ 16.18

Nicolo Barella is one of the most underrated midfielders in Europe, and carries an aggressive streak which is advantageous for our selection here. Barella has committed seven fouls across his four starts in the Champions League this term (1.78 per 90), and should be in line to commit at least one foul in this contest.

Barella has committed a further 21 fouls across his 19 starts in Serie A this term, working out to an average of 1.18 fouls committed per 90. It isn’t totally surprising to see a rise in his average when playing in the Champions League. Inter don’t have as much control in their games in the Champions League compared to their domestic assignments, so their games in Europe demand a lot more from their players when out of possession.

Barella’s main opponent here is likely to be Eberechi Eze, who has a bit of a point to prove, having been nearly frozen out by Mikel Arteta following his mistake against Aston Villa. Eze has won 20 fouls across his 12 starts in the Premier League this term (1.76 per 90).

Bellingham has been his usual industrious self this season and has put in some exceptional performances that have encapsulated everything he’s so good at. Breaking out of presses, beating his man, and running games. If Monaco have any hope tonight, they have to stop him, and with such a combative midfield against him, I’m confident the Englishman can draw at least a couple of fouls.

Domestically, Bellingham has been impeded an average of 2.35 times per 90 minutes - the most in the Real Madrid squad.

The likes of Jordan Teze, Aleksandr Golovin and Maghnes Akilouche on the opposing side all contribute very solid foul numbers, so there isn’t a lack of opponents willing to give him a kick or a trip.

Villarreal and Ajax have both looked vulnerable at the back, and with the pair both relying on three points to retain any hope of progression, it’s tough to imagine either prioritising defence.

Both teams have found the back of the net in six of Villarreal’s last nine outings across all competitions, and the underlying numbers suggest this is no coincidence. Offensively, the Yellow Submarine have scored in all but three league clashes, and with Ajax having conceded two more goals than any other side in the UCL, it’d be some surprise were they not able to find a breakthrough.

Similarly, each of Ajax’s last three have seen both teams score at least twice, so it likely won’t shock you to learn that this selection has landed in 14 of their 19 league games to date. Their matches on the road have produced at a rate as high as 4.11 goals per 90, with both teams scoring in all nine.

Whichever way the match goes, the evidence suggests it’s definitely one worth watching, and I expect to see plenty of goals.

Bayer Leverkusen’s league games have produced as many as 3.47 goals per 90, rising to 3.75 when on the road, where this selection boasts a 75% hit rate. Six of their most recent nine have exceeded the threshold, and their Champions League matches have been even more prolific, churning out goals at a rate of 3.67 per game.

Olympiacos’ numbers also merit intrigue, particularly their home record, which has seen them average over 2.5 goals for in the league. Two-thirds of their clashes at the Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki have produced over 2.5 goals, averaging 3.13.

Backing this game to have three or more goals feels like an absolute must when you have offensive players of this quality on the field. We’ve seen over 2.5 goals land in five of six PSG games in the Champions League this season, with the team breaking that number on their own in half of their games. There are goals all over the team with six different players already having scored multiple Champions League goals this season, and that’s despite Ousmane Dembele and Bradley Barcola only scoring once between them.

We’ve seen three or more goals in all but one of Sporting’s UCL games this season, which was the 1-1 draw in Turin against Juventus. Besides that, we’ve seen plenty of goals, both for and against the Portuguese side. They’ve kept just one clean sheet and have a number of players in great form. Luis Suarez is amongst them, he's scored 11 times in 11 games across all competitions.

Spurs haven’t quite been as enterprising, but they have seen BTTS land in six of their last eight home matches. Thomas Frank’s men have struggled to exert as much control on games as they would have liked this season, and because of that, they have picked up more cards than any other Premier League side this campaign. 

The North Londoners have been shown 60 yellow cards and three reds after just 22 Premier League matches this season, averaging 2.8 cards per game. Jarred Gillett dished out five yellow cards to Spurs last time out, as they lost 2-1 at home to West Ham. 

That average drops to 2.0 cards per game in the Champions League, but Tottenham have still landed this selection in four of their six matches overall. They face a tough matchup against a technical Dortmund side on Tuesday night, who drew two yellow cards against Man City in their last Champions League away day.

Antonio Conte's side have collected an average of 1.67 cards per 90 across their opening six league phase fixtures and this does not tell the full story. A closer look shows that Napoli have been shown a minimum of 2 cards in each of their three league phase fixtures away from their Naples base, notably having a player sent off in two of those contests.

It is also worth pointing out that Napoli were reduced to 10 men in a fiery win over Lazio earlier this month, while manager Antonio Conte was sent off during a recent 2-2 draw with Inter Milan at the San Siro - further evidence that the Blues can let their emotions get the better of them.

The case for backing Napoli to pick up at least one booking on Tuesday night becomes even stronger when you throw in the fact that Copenhagen have drawn 2 or more cards from five of their six opponents in this season's Champions League.

Popular Football Tips

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Ipswich - to Win

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