Kvaratskhelia is in the middle of another brilliant Champions League campaign with PSG. When he gets going, it’s impossible to look away - he’s the best dribbler in the world, as far as I’m concerned, and he gave Liverpool a nightmare in the first leg, scoring one of his seven shots, with two of them on target.

That strike adds to the three goals he netted across two legs against Chelsea in the previous round, bringing his total to eight goals in ten Champions League starts - four more than he’s scored in Ligue 1 this season.

No PSG player has more Champions League goals than Kvaratskhelia. He’s reached that tally from 39 shots (4.43 per 90), with 12 on target (1.36 per 90). I expect him to cause Liverpool problems again, especially with the extra space he should get as Liverpool are forced to be bolder while chasing a way back into the tie.

Konate has really struggled this season. It started right at the beginning of the campaign, when he was bullied by Mateta and Sarr in the Community Shield, and he hasn’t really improved since - he keeps making costly errors for Liverpool.

Liverpool don’t have many other centre-back options to turn to, a result of not getting the Marc Guehi deal done in the summer, so Konate should keep his place here despite his poor form. PSG’s front three toyed with him in the first leg, forcing the Liverpool defender into four fouls as he was run ragged by Kvaratskhelia, Doue and Dembele.

Konate, and Liverpool’s backline as a whole, had real trouble handling the movement and energy of the PSG attack. The PSG front three won six fouls between them in the first leg, and they could tempt Konate into a few more mistakes in the second leg, with more space allowing them to isolate him in 1v1 situations - something he really struggles with

Lamine Yamal tried everything to get Barcelona back in the game after Pau Cubarsi was sent off in the first half for a careless challenge. He created three chances and had four shots despite Barcelona being reduced to 10 men, and should have a starring role here as Hansi Flick’s side attempt a comeback.

Yamal has registered nine goal contributions across nine starts in the Champions League this season (5 goals, 4 assists). He’s already matched his goal contribution tally from last season (39), showing that Yamal is improving from his already elite base - which is a scary thought for anyone that comes up against him. 

Yamal also has that good arrogance you need to orchestrate a comeback in the Champions League, and can lean on that to get Barcelona back in the tie. Atletico Madrid are more vulnerable at the back than they usually are under Diego Simeone, who has leaned towards a more expressive style of play this term which keeps this tie alive and gives Yamal plenty of motivation to register a goal or an assist.

As much praise as Alvarez is getting at the moment, I still think he’s underrated. There is often talk about there not being that many elite forwards at the moment, but Alvarez certainly falls into this category having netted a brilliant free kick against Barcelona in the first leg. 

That goal was one of two shots on target that Alvarez had in the first leg, and I think he’ll continue to test the high line of Barcelona again here - which should be even more vulnerable now that they are without Pau Cubarsi, who is suspended following his sending off from the first leg clash. 

Alvarez has scored nine goals across his 12 starts in the Champions League this campaign. He’s achieved this tally from 38 shots (3.40 per 90), seeing 19 of these efforts find the target (1.70 per 90). Alvarez is also maintaining an average of 1.23 shots on target per 90 in LaLiga this season.

I really like the look of this stat special, it should have a decent chance with the situation Barcelona find themselves in.

Barcelona need to score at least two goals to get back into this tie, so they will be on the front foot from the very first whistle. Atletico Madrid have built a stubborn identity under Diego Simeone, which hasn’t applied as much this season, but you would expect them to tap into that dogged nature here as they look to protect their two goal lead.

Barcelona managed seven shots on target in the meeting between the sides last week, two of which came from distance. They’ve managed 6+ shots on target in four of the five head to head meetings between the sides this season - managing 7+ shots on target in three of these games. Barcelona also boast healthy shot on target metrics in both LaLiga and the Champions League:

LaLiga: 7.30 shots on target per game
Champions League: 7.00 shots on target per game 

I’d expect this count to inflate further with the situation that Barcelona find themselves in, giving this angle a very decent chance at 9/1. If we look at the individual players that could help get this bet over the line as well, it strengthens the case for Barcelona to have at least four shots on target from distance:

Lamine Yamal: 31% shots from OTB 
Marcus Rashford: 36% shots from OTB 
Fermin Lopez: 40% shots from OTB 
Ferran Torres: 33% shots from OTB 
Dani Olmo: 60% shots from OTB 

(25/26 CL stats)

Lamine Yamal tried everything to get Barcelona back in the game after Pau Cubarsi was sent off in the first half for a careless challenge. He created three chances and had four shots despite Barcelona being reduced to 10 men, and should have a starring role here as Hansi Flick’s side attempt a comeback.

Yamal has registered nine goal contributions across nine starts in the Champions League this season (5 goals, 4 assists). He’s already matched his goal contribution tally from last season (39), showing that Yamal is improving from his already elite base - which is a scary thought for anyone that comes up against him. 

Yamal also has that good arrogance you need to orchestrate a comeback in the Champions League, and can lean on that to get Barcelona back in the tie. Atletico Madrid are more vulnerable at the back than they usually are under Diego Simeone, who has leaned towards a more expressive style of play this term which keeps this tie alive and gives Yamal plenty of motivation to register a goal or an assist.

Kvaratskhelia has been sensational in the Champions League this season, registering 12 goal contributions across his 10 starts in the competition (8 goals, 4 assists) - five more goal contributions than any other PSG player in the Champions League.

He’s scored in each of his last four Champions League matches against the likes of Chelsea and Monaco - as well as scoring PSG’s second goal in their 2-0 win over Liverpool at the Parc Des Princes last week. 

PSG have scored more goals than any other side in the Champions League this season, and completely dominated Liverpool in the meeting between the sides last week. I think Kvaratskhelia will get more joy here, boosted by the extra space he should get when Liverpool go chasing the tie. 

Liverpool really struggled to contain PSG in the first leg meeting. Luis Enrique’s side made Liverpool look amateur at times with their rotations and constant movement, leading to Liverpool committing 12 fouls in the contest.

Alexis Mac Allister undertook the majority of the defensive work in the meeting between the sides last week, committing three fouls, but Gravenberch is at a slightly more appealing price for a caution - and has picked up two yellow cards across his 10 starts in the Champions League this term.

Gravenberch has cut a frustrated figure many times this season, also picking up five yellow cards across his 29 starts in the Premier League. He’ll have to contend with PSG’s midfield trio, but also the likes of Doue (2.28 fouls won per 90) and Kvaratskhelia (2.50 fouls won per 90) when they drop into deeper pockets, as they did constantly last week. 

You get the feeling that this will be a classic Simeone performance from Atletico Madrid. They haven’t really shown a lot of that dogged determination that we’ve come to associate with Atletico Madrid this season - but this situation demands a bit of those dark arts which Simeone is so good at.

Atletico Madrid committed 17 fouls and picked up three yellow cards when the sides met last week. Llorente committed one foul in that game, and his midfield partner in Koke was cautioned - committing three fouls inside just 60 minutes on the pitch. 

Llorente has collected two cards across his 10 starts in the Champions League this term, as well as five cards across his 21 starts in LaLiga. He was shown a yellow card in Atletico’s 4-0 victory over Barcelona in the Copa Del Rey earlier in the season, committing three fouls on that occasion. 

Desire Doue scored the winning penalty when PSG knocked out Liverpool in the Champions League last season. That moment really kick-started his campaign with Doue going on to register eight goal contributions across his eight starts - including a man of the match performance in the final as PSG thrashed Inter Milan 5-0. 

Doue has been just as effective again in the Champions League this season, registering seven goal contributions across his five starts, with five of these being goals. He’s scored these five goals from just eight shots on target (1.30 per 90), suggesting that Doue is clinical when given the opportunity in the Champions League. 

Doue scored in the first leg with a deflected strike that looped over Mamardashvilli and should feel confident ahead of his trip to Anfield, having secured PSG’s progression to the quarter finals of the Champions League at the ground last season.

I’ve been a bit disappointed with Mac Allister this season after the high level he set last campaign. He’s looked a little sluggish, which isn’t a criticism solely reserved for the Argentinian - as Liverpool in general have lacked intensity, and are not running as much as they did last season. 

Mac Allister was cautioned after just 31 minutes in the first leg for a cynical foul to stop a counter attack. He went on to commit three fouls in the game, and struggled with the movement of PSG’s frontline and midfield. Liverpool in general did not have an answer to the clever rotations that Luis Enrique’s side put together - and you’d expect there to be even more gaps in this clash as Liverpool chase a way back into the contest.

Mac Allister has committed 14 fouls across his eight starts in the Champions League this season (1.62 per 90), which is a rate that we have already seen rise when faced by the effective rotations of PSG who have a variety of players that can force Mac Allister into committing a few lazy challenges.

One area I thought Liverpool would make more of in the first leg was set pieces. Arne Slot has moaned about teams using set pieces and marginal gains all season, but the fact remains that Liverpool’s only advantage over PSG is the physicality they can offer from set pieces. 

They’ve leveraged this in the Champions League this season, with Virgil Van Dijk pitching in with five goal contributions across his 11 starts in the Champions League. He’s taken 16 shots across these games (1.45 per 90) with 15 of these efforts being with his head. Four of these shots have found the target (0.36 per 90), which isn’t as promising, but the volume of efforts should give Van Dijk a decent chance of getting a single effort on target. 

Van Dijk is built for these big occasions, I do think Liverpool will be able to improve on the one corner they managed at the Parc Des Princes with their average jumping to around six corners per game when looking at their matches at Anfield in the Champions League this term.

Joao Cancelo had two shots when these sides met last week, with one of these attempts finding the target. He’s pretty generously priced to find the target again here, especially given the situation that Barcelona find themselves in - needing to score at least twice to get back into this tie.

Barcelona are expected to have at least seven shots on target here if we go by the lines set by the bookmakers (8+ SOT - 2.20) so taking Cancelo at this price is much more appealing than taking other Barcelona players for a single shot on target here:

Lewandowski - 1.25
Yamal - 1.30
Rashford - 1.40
Torres - 1.44 

Cancelo is naturally quite forward thinking, he’s less of a fullback and more of an attacking midfielder with the positions he takes up similar to those occupied by Mendes and Hakimi for PSG. He’s taken 11 shots across his six stars for Barcelona in LaLiga (1.80 per 90) and maintained an average of 1.14 shots per 90 across his 21 starts in the Saudi Pro League last season.

Barcelona will be on the front foot from the first whistle and should be able to create opportunities for Cancelo when he advances from fullback. He likes to take efforts from distance as well, which could be particularly useful against an Atletico Madrid side that will be more inclined to sit deep here.

You can also back Cancelo for 2+ shots at 3.00, a double with both of the selections comes out at 4.75. 

The first leg at the Bernabeu was one of the most entertaining Champions League games of the season - both sides had 20 shots each, Neuer made nine saves, and Lunin pulled off five of his own. Despite their heroics, there were still three goals in that game. 

There is every reason to expect a similarly open contest at the Allianz Arena for the second leg, as Real Madrid will have to come out firing to have any chance of completing the comeback. With 15 Champions League titles to their name, Real Madrid are the most successful club in the history of the competition, so they definitely won’t go down without a fight.

Bayern have bagged 105 goals in the Bundesliga this season, and they aren’t going to sit back to defend their lead here. The Bavarians will continue to be front-footed in their approach, which makes goals a target once again. 

Assuming Bayern Munich maintain their usual approach for this game at the Allianz Arena, we should get a very similar matchup. There were 19 corners in that first leg, with 11 for the German side and eight for Real Madrid, comfortably clearing this line. 

Los Blancos are averaging 11.85 corners per game in the Champions League this season, and this selection landed in both matches against Man City in the previous knockout round. There were 11 corners in the first leg against Pep Guardiola’s men, and 15 in the second.

Knockout ties can tend to be a good opportunity to target corners, as sides become a bit more desperate and last-ditch in their efforts. Especially with this tie still hanging firmly in the balance, chances should continue to be available at both ends, with the momentum swinging between the two sides.

Michael Olise was one of Bayern’s standout performers from the first leg, and he provided the assist for Harry Kane. The Frenchman has contributed to 42 goals this season for Bayern, with 17 goals and 25 assists, and he was unfortunate not to find the back of the net in the first leg. Olise registered four shots in total, and two of those hit the target. 

The 24-year-old also bagged a brace in the previous round against Atalanta, as Bayern cruised to a 6-1 victory in Bergamo. Olise has been central to his side's success going forward this season, and he is averaging 3.77 shots per 90 in the Champions League.

He has landed this bet in tougher matchups against the likes of Chelsea, PSG, and, of course, Real Madrid in the first leg. He tends to play with more attacking freedom on home turf, making him a target again here.

Knowing that they have a one-goal deficit to overcome at the Allianz Arena, Real Madrid will have to be a bit more intense in their press, and they could get quite desperate at times. Joshua Kimmich has plenty of experience in these kinds of big fixtures, and Vincent Kompany will be reliant on his captain to provide that calmness in midfield. 

The German international is averaging 1.16 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, which rises steeply to 1.72 when playing in the Champions League. He was fouled once in the reverse fixture and has landed this selection in nine out of ten appearances on the European stage this season. The only game he failed was against Club Brugge, but Bayern dominated that contest and won 4-0. 

This upcoming clash against Real Madrid should be much more evenly balanced, and Kimmich will be a target in midfield.

David Raya made some important stops in Lisbon last week as Arsenal registered a 1-0 victory over Sporting thanks to a last-minute winner from Kai Havertz. Raya is an exceptional shot stopper and was called into action five times in that game, earning him the man of the match title. 

Raya has kept seven clean sheets across his 10 starts in the Champions League this season, only conceding three goals across these matches. He’s been called into action 27 times in the Premier League (2.70 per 90) and is likely to be tested at least twice by a Sporting side who do have quality in the final third, as they showed last week with their five efforts on target.

It’s also pretty notable that Raya is busier in the Champions League than he is in the Premier League. His save average jumps from 1.59 saves per 90 in the Premier League to 2.70 saves per 90 in the Champions League - so there is a clear trend of Raya being more active when playing in Europe for the Gunners.

Arsenal have been bombarded with criticism of late, which is warranted given how they’ve collapsed domestically, but their record in the Champions League is really positive. 

Arsenal have won all five of their home games in the Champions League this season, it’s really easy to forget their dominant victories over Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid at the Emirates, in which they completely dominated those sides. 

Arteta’s side need a lift, and the Champions League should be able to deliver that morale boost - if Arsenal get through here, then they could have a relatively uncomplicated route to the final with Atletico Madrid looking likely to be their semi-final opponents. 

Sporting’s best performances this season have come at home. They’ve lost to Napoli, Bayern Munich, and Bodo Glimt on the road in the Champions League this term, so you get the feeling that they just missed their chance to make something of this tie by not getting on the scoresheet in the first leg.

Geny Catamo was hauled down three times when the sides faced off last week, and can offer a threat on the counterattack to Arsenal again here as Sporting look to get back into this tie.

Catamo was caught offside twice in that game, suggesting that the winger was constantly looking to run beyond Arsenal’s high defensive line and act as an outlet for Sporting. This proved to be pretty effective, with Catamo having four shots in the game and accounting for three of the five shots that Sporting managed to get on target.

Catamo has drawn 16 fouls across his eight starts in the Champions League this season (2.05 per 90), showing that this trait of Catamo’s is pretty consistent in the Champions League. His domestic numbers are also pretty convincing, with Catamo maintaining an average of 2.11 fouls won per 90 across his 20 starts in Liga Portugal this term.

Sporting committed exactly 11 fouls when these sides faced off last week, and I think they’ll be able to get to that foul tally again here.

Fouls can be a bit of a frustrating market to bet on when they take a while to stack up, but Sporting have maintained an average of 10.7 fouls committed per game in the Champions League this season - a total that should rise just slightly here.

Only three sides in the Champions League have picked up more yellow cards this season than Sporting (23). They’re chasing the tie here, so there is naturally going to be a bit of angst from the away side as they look to get that goal that will get them back in the contest.

Arsenal haven’t been at their strongest of late, but still tend to be pretty dominant at home in the Champions League and will look to break the game up as much as possible.

Jude Bellingham has returned to fitness at the perfect time for Real Madrid. It's no exaggeration to say that Real Madrid's season relies on the Champions League now after failing to win either of their last two matches in LaLiga - handing the initiative in the LaLiga title race to Barcelona.

Bellingham has scored two goals and picked up two cards across his five starts in the Champions League this season. His underlying numbers are positive too, with the Englishman managing 16 shots across these five starts in the Champions League (2.79 per 90) as well as committing nine fouls across these games (1.57 per 90).

Bellingham is a passionate player, which can sometimes come across as petulance, but it doesn't take a lot to wind him up with how often he is fouled. Bellingham is often booked for his reaction to challenges on him, something which should be even more relevant here with Madrid being behind in the tie. He's averaging 2.26 fouls won per 90 in the Champions League this term, so we can expect Bellingham to grow agitated as he halted by a Bayern Munich side that committed 12 fouls at the Bernabeu last week.

Furthermore, Bellingham offers Real Madrid a slightly different threat in forward areas to that posed by Mbappe and Vinicus Jr. He is more effective at getting on the end of crosses than Mbappe and Vinicius and faces up against a Bayern backline which looked pretty vulnerable in the first leg - conceding 20 shots and eight shots on target. This can aid Bellingham when it comes to getting on the scoresheet, I wouldn't put you off the double either at bigger odds - that landed when Real Madrid faced off against Monaco in the league phase.

This exact Foul Matchup won at a similar price last week, we're taking it again with the underlying numbers lining up well.

Konrad Laimer had a torrid time against Real Madrid last week. He was forced into committing two fouls and was hooked after 69 minutes, with Vincent Kompany probably being a bit concerned that Laimer's next foul would have seen the Austrian booked. Laimer has committed 10 fouls across his eight Champions League starts this season (1.43 per 90). This foul count is actually quite modest for how aggressive Laimer can be, he's a very versatile player and is expected to line up at left back here - where he doesn't always look comfortable, especially against the likes of Mbappe and Vinicius Jr.

Three of Bayern Munich's backline committed two fouls in their 2-1 win over Madrid last week, suggesting that Madrid's front pairing can tempt Kompany's defensive unit into another high foul count. Bayern Munich's backline accounted for seven of the 12 fouls they committed last week. Laimer has committed 2+ fouls in each of his last four Champions League starts, making the 1.72 for Laimer to commit 2+ fouls a pretty generous price even as a single here.

Vinicius Jr was hauled down three times in the meeting between the sides last week, accounting for a quarter of the fouls that Real Madrid managed to draw from Bayern Munich at the Bernabeu (12). He is expected to line up alongside Mbappe in a front two again here, and can torture the Bayern Munich backline in a similar manner to his performance last week.

Vinicius Jr is averaging 2.00 fouls won per 90 in the Champions League this season. All four of Bayern Munich's backline last week committed at least one foul, with three of these players committing 2+ fouls. This suggests that Vinicius Jr and Mbappe have the quality to unsettle the Bayern Munich backline, with there being a variety of opponents that could drag Vinicius Jr to the ground.

This exact angle was so close to landing in the meeting between the sides last week. Both Kane and Vinicius were hauled down at least twice, with both also having 3+ shots in the game. Vinicius Jr ended up taking seven shots, finding the target twice, while Kane narrowly missed out on a second shot on target - but did get on the scoresheet.

The first leg meeting between the sides produced 40 match shots, 20 for each side, with 17 of these efforts finding the target. This sets up the second leg to be an open and entertaining affair, aiding the chance of both of these players finding the target at least twice:

Harry Kane - 2.22 SOT p/90
Vinicius Jr - 1.67 SOT p/90

The first leg meeting also produced 24 match fouls, 12 for each side, indicating that there will be a fair bit of needle alongside the the entertainment and quality on offer for both sides. Kane drew two fouls at the Bernabeu with both Huijsen and Rudiger committing one foul in that clash - that duo is likely to be the partnership Kane lines up against once again here. Vinicius Jr was fouled three times, and cause the Bayern backline all sorts of problems alongside Kylian Mbappe. All four of Bayern Munich's backline committed at least one foul in that clash, with Laimer, Tah and Upamecano all committing two fouls:

Harry Kane - 1.99 Fouls Won p/90
Vinicius Jr - 2.00 Fouls Won p/90

The underlying numbers for both of these players should allow this bet to go close at a very generous price of 9.5. The same selection is around 8.0 with other leading bookmakers, so there is a bit of value in taking this angle too. It is worth noting that Super Sub does not apply for this selection, but I would expect both players to play near to the full 90 minutes.