Tips Hub

MK Dons have recovered from a sluggish, and slightly unlucky, start to the campaign to win each of their last five matches and look much more like the side many thought would threaten the playoff spots at the start of the campaign.

Paul Warne has seen his side score at least twice in each of their last four matches, netting 4+ goals in two of the three home games during this run against Doncaster and Bromley.

Aaron Collins has been the main source of goals - netting 13 goals across just 12 starts which is at least three more than any other player in the division. MK Dons have only lost one of their seven games at home this term, netting 15 goals in the process (2.14 per game).

Burton have only managed to win two of their seven away assignments this season, and are likely to be the latest team to come undone against this confident MK Dons side.

The away side have notably only kept two clean sheets across their 14 matches in League One, with these shutouts being quite fortunate against Plymouth (2.52 xG) and Bradford (1.49 xG).

These two sides played out one of the most memorable finales to a National League season last year, drawing 1-1 on the final day with both goals coming in added time to give York the title and automatic promotion by just two points - despite both sides clearing the 100 point mark.

Rochdale recovered well from that setback to earn promotion through the playoffs, and are looking to keep their place in the division with just three points separating them from the drop zone. We just need them to score here, which is something they’ve managed in six of their seven home matches.

They’ve avoided defeat in four of these games as well, netting 10 goals in total. York have settled in better to life in the EFL, but have crucially been really poor on the road - failing to win any of their seven matches and conceding 16 goals in the process (2.28 per game).

York have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their seven away matches this term, and the background surrounding this game should make it an entertaining watch. York are the better side, as shown by their league standing, but their away form acts as a leveller.

Salford have been near flawless at home this season, winning six of their seven matches and conceding just four goals in the process.

The only side to beat them at home this season was Chesterfield right at the start of the campaign, with that defeat being in a period of adjustment for Salford as they lost their opening three matches of the campaign.

They’ve since recovered really well to win each of their last five matches in League Two, and have some impressive underlying numbers to match.

Only Barnet (28) have scored more goals than Salford (25) in League Two, with the home side here also boasting the fourth best defensive record and having the third highest share of the ball.

Northampton are hovering above the relegation zone in League Two, winning just one of their six away matches this term.

I struggle to see how their scoring power troubling Salford here, they’ve only scored five goals across these games and are the lowest scorers in the division overall with just nine goals - five of which have come from set pieces.

Northampton have also lost their last three matches ahead of this one, including a bruising 4-0 defeat in the FA Cup to York City as the away side.

Crewe are one of six sides in League Two who are yet to lose a game at home, with Lee Bell’s side netting 12 goals across their seven matches (1.71 per game).

Crewe have managed to score in 14 of their last 15 matches across all competitions, with only Exeter keeping them out. Crewe were the away side on that occasion, which is where their scoring power is weaker (5 goals across seven matches).

Newport have failed to keep a clean sheet across their last six matches, and are notably one of only four sides in League Two yet to win a game on the road - conceding 11 goals across their seven away assignments (1.57 per game).

Crewe scored twice against Newport in this fixture last season from an xG of 1.85. We only need them to score once here, which looks more than plausible given their superior scoring power at home and Newport’s issues on the road.

Moldova and Kazakhstan have two of the worst defensive records in Nations League C, having conceded eight and seven goals respectively.

Kazakhstan have scored and conceded in all four games, including their meeting with Moldova in October, which ended in a 2-1 win for the Moldovans.

There were 35 shots in that game, with 12 on target, and Kazakhstan won 11 corners.

Moldova have been creating chances at home, averaging 19.5 shots and 1.38 xG across their two home games.

Even in their 4-0 defeat to Slovakia last time out, they still managed 17 shots, with five on target.

Kazakhstan are allowing an average of 6.25 shots on target per game and will be without defender Sergey Maliy, who was sent off in their 2-2 draw with the Faroe Islands.

The Netherlands have scored and conceded in all four of their Nations League games and have one of the best attacking records in League A, with seven goals and an average of 2.8 xG per game.

They’ve been creating plenty of chances, averaging 22 shots per game, with 7.5 on target, but have struggled at the back.

Even Serbia managed to score against them in both meetings, creating 1.1 and 1.4 xG.

Greece, meanwhile, are still unbeaten and have scored in both away games, including a 1-0 win over Germany.

The two sides drew 2-2 in October, with the Dutch managing 19 shots but conceding twice and having to come back from two goals down.

The Netherlands will be without Van Dijk this time, while Greece have Pavlidis back. He’s currently the top scorer in the Portuguese league, with 11 goals in 11 games.

Cliftonville head into this one on the back of three straight Premiership wins, scoring an impressive 14 goals against Dungannon, Carrick Rangers and Larne.

They have the second-best attack in the league, with 27 goals in 15 games, and Brian Healy has been in great form, scoring four times in the last three rounds.

Despite that excellent attacking form, Cliftonville have conceded in 14 of their 15 league games and are averaging around 1.6 xGA away from home.

Limavady haven’t been much better at the back, conceding ten goals in their last five games and averaging 1.73 goals against per match, one of the worst defensive records in their league.

Going forward, though, they’ve scored in four straight games, including against Larne and Carrick Rangers, and both teams have found the net in four of their last five league matches.

Luke Woodhouse is worth a punt at 40/1 to win the Grand Slam.

He’s been the most improved player on the tour this year for me, and certainly is capable of putting together a decent run at a major now that he has shaken off some of the slight immaturity that previously affected his game.

This is a kind opening game for Woody against Tom Sykes, who will be making his debut at the Grand Slam after beating the likes of Tyler Thorpe, Adam Leek, Rob Owen and Tavis Dudeney in qualifying.

I think the nerves get to the debutant here. His highest average across qualifying was 91, and only Tavis Dudeney really gave him a proper game across those matches (92.61 - 5-4 defeat). 

Woodhouse outperforms Sykes in almost every metric over the last year, and also has way more experience on the big stage - where he’s looked increasingly confident, including beating Luke Littler on a big stage a few months ago.

He’s won a European Tour and Player Championship event this year, and has also reached the last 16 of two major tournaments. 

Woodhouse will play Ratajski next, which is obviously a much more awkward assignment with the experience and standard that the Polish Eagle regularly produces on the big stages - so this is pretty much a must win with only the top player from each group progressing. 

I think we see the version of Woodhouse we’ve seen all year here, and I really wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a deep run. 

At some point, Gerwyn Price’s luck has to change.

He’s probably been the best player overall in each of the last three big tournaments, but has lost in the final in two of them - once to Ross Smith, and once to Luke Humphries, despite having a commanding lead over Cool Hand in the World Grand Prix final.

There’s a multitude of reasons you could examine as to why Price is failing to get over the line, some point to his new focus outside of darts which Price references regularly in his interviews after losing two finals.

This group should be relatively straightforward for the Ice Man, only Luke Littler (1.25) and Luke Humphries (1.30) are shorter in the market to top their Grand Slam group than Price (1.33) who takes on Joe Hunt and Sebastian Bialecki.

Bialecki has the potential to cause a surprise, but this opening game should be routine. Joe Hunt qualified for the Grand Slam as a Challenge Tour winner, but has crucially never played on a stage this big.

His seasonal average sits just below 90, suggesting that even a below par Gerwyn Price would be able to beat him. His performance in the PC events this year has also been quite concerning, rarely getting past the Round of 64 in most of the events.

Price is 12/1 in places to win the Grand Slam, which isn’t bad for a player who has reached the final of the World Grand Prix and World Series this year as well as reaching the semi finals of the European Championship. 

Luke Woodhouse is worth a punt at 40/1 to win the Grand Slam.

He’s been the most improved player on the tour this year for me, and certainly is capable of putting together a decent run at a major now that he has shaken off some of the slight immaturity that previously affected his game.

This is a kind opening game for Woody against Tom Sykes, who will be making his debut at the Grand Slam after beating the likes of Tyler Thorpe, Adam Leek, Rob Owen and Tavis Dudeney in qualifying.

I think the nerves get to the debutant here. His highest average across qualifying was 91, and only Tavis Dudeney really gave him a proper game across those matches (92.61 - 5-4 defeat). 

Woodhouse outperforms Sykes in almost every metric over the last year, and also has way more experience on the big stage - where he’s looked increasingly confident, including beating Luke Littler on a big stage a few months ago.

He’s won a European Tour and Player Championship event this year, and has also reached the last 16 of two major tournaments. 

Woodhouse will play Ratajski next, which is obviously a much more awkward assignment with the experience and standard that the Polish Eagle regularly produces on the big stages - so this is pretty much a must win with only the top player from each group progressing. 

I think we see the version of Woodhouse we’ve seen all year here, and I really wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a deep run. 

Jermaine Wattimena has a real opportunity in this group against a player in Lisa Ashton who has never won a game at the Grand Slam across her five appearances and an out of sorts Alan Soutar.

Wattimena is as short as 1.11 to win this game, and it’s clear to see why when you look at the underlying numbers. All the metrics point to a comfortable Wattimena victory, and I think he also wins the 180 battle - which brings this single to a more appealing 1.57.

Wattimena is not a sensational 180 hitter, but has maintained a rate of 0.26 180s per leg over the last year which is decent enough. Lisa Ashton rarely hits maximums at the same rate, averaging just 0.11 180s per leg. 

Even if the game extends to seven legs, which would likely be a 5-2 win for Wattimena, Ashton would still come out without a 180 if she plays to that seasonal rate of maximum hitting - so two maximums is likely to be enough for the Dutchman to win that battle as well as the match.

This is such a tight group, with these two joined by the ever unpredictable Andrew Gilding in Group F.

There’s not a clear favourite for this group, Searle is the shortest in the odds (2.20), but I wouldn’t be in a rush to back him in a format this short and with Searle being one of those players who can average 100+ in one game and stoop down to a low 90s in the next.

Manby will see this as an opportunity. Unlike most of the lower ranked qualifiers in this event, Manby has performed and beaten big names on a big stage - with his run in the World Championship last year being seriously impressive on debut. 

We need this game to have at least seven legs, so we’re essentially backing both players to win at least two legs each. That’s basically backing Manby to hold his throw if you look at the odds for this game, which he’s more than capable of doing.

They’ve played each other twice this year, with Searle coming out a 6-3 winner on both occasions. The latest meeting was in a European Tour event too, showing again how Manby can certainly be competitive on this stage.

Jonny Clayton has been a solid performer all season, but I think he needs a big trophy to be in the conversations he’d like to be in around the Premier League next year. 

He’s got a kind start here against the final player to qualify for the Grand Slam in Anton Ostlund, who hails from Sweden and qualified via the Nordic & Baltic Championships. 

Ostlund has taken part in two Player Championship events this year, right at the start of 2026, and lost in the first round on both occasions to Willie O’Connor and Kevin Doets, being whitewashed 6-0 by the latter. 

I never worry about Clayton in games like this, he’s got the big stage experience and will know that he’s much better than his opponent in the majority of metrics. 

He’ll also have the foresight to know that this group is likely to become a straight shootout between himself and Rob Cross, who hasn’t been at his best this year but is always capable of pulling off an upset in this format. 

Clayton has gone out to the eventual finalist in the European Championship, the World Grand Prix and the World Series Finals - suggesting that it almost always takes a top player to beat him, and Ostlund will find it very difficult to reach that level. 

At some point, Gerwyn Price’s luck has to change.

He’s probably been the best player overall in each of the last three big tournaments, but has lost in the final in two of them - once to Ross Smith, and once to Luke Humphries, despite having a commanding lead over Cool Hand in the World Grand Prix final.

There’s a multitude of reasons you could examine as to why Price is failing to get over the line, some point to his new focus outside of darts which Price references regularly in his interviews after losing two finals.

This group should be relatively straightforward for the Ice Man, only Luke Littler (1.25) and Luke Humphries (1.30) are shorter in the market to top their Grand Slam group than Price (1.33) who takes on Joe Hunt and Sebastian Bialecki.

Bialecki has the potential to cause a surprise, but this opening game should be routine. Joe Hunt qualified for the Grand Slam as a Challenge Tour winner, but has crucially never played on a stage this big.

His seasonal average sits just below 90, suggesting that even a below par Gerwyn Price would be able to beat him. His performance in the PC events this year has also been quite concerning, rarely getting past the Round of 64 in most of the events.

Price is 12/1 in places to win the Grand Slam, which isn’t bad for a player who has reached the final of the World Grand Prix and World Series this year as well as reaching the semi finals of the European Championship. 

MK are in good form, winning each of their last three.

That includes scoring 10 in their last two home games, producing 4.62 xG combined in those games.

I’ve got to mention Aaron Collins, he netted six across those two home wins and he has 13 in 13 league games.

Burton are just one point behind MK in the table but expected points shows they have picked up five more points than they should have.

Their metrics are poor, especially away, where they average just 1.26 xG but 1.62 xGA.

MK have lost just one home game this season, whereas Burton have just two away wins.

Salford haven’t tasted defeat in the league since the end of August and they’re on a run of eight straight league victories.

They’ve also been superb at home, winning six from seven.

Their underlying data is particularly strong at home, where they create an average of 1.70 xG and restrict their opponents to just 1.19.

Northampton are also quite stern defensively, but their major issue is creating chances and scoring goals.

The Cobblers have averaged just 1.18 xG in League Two this season.

As a result, they are the league’s lowest scorers with nine goals in 13 games and they’ve won just one of their last six in all competitions.

The tide has turned for The Cumbrians, with Rob Elliot winning the fans over and guiding them to eight games unbeaten in all comps, with seven wins and an impressive win over Salford in the FA Cup last week.

This had been coming, with Carlisle averaging the highest xG in the National League at 1.83 and sitting top of the expected points table, despite being 18 points behind Boreham Wood.

Boston have picked up a couple of wins but they did come against the bottom two in the division.

On the road, The Pilgrims have managed just eight points from 21 available and they average a huge 1.89 xGA.

Serbia have lost all four of their Nations League games, conceding at least twice in every match, with three of those games seeing over 2.5 goals.

They're allowing an average of 26.25 shots per game, including eight on target, more total shots than any other team in the competition.

Germany beat Serbia 2-0 in October, completely dominating the game with 32 shots, eight on target and 3.81 xG.

Füllkrug is back in the squad, giving Germany another attacking option.

He's the Bundesliga's top scorer with nine goals, and the Germans need a win to boost their chances of reaching the quarter-finals.

Serbia will be missing some important players in midfield and defence, including the suspended Lukić and Maksimović.

They'll be playing without their usual home support too, due to a UEFA sanction.

Scotland beat North Macedonia 2-0 in October, managing 25 shots, ten on target and 3.45 xG. They created seven big chances but missed six of them.

North Macedonia have lost all four of their Nations League games, conceding ten goals and at least twice in every match.

They've yet to score a single goal and are allowing 21 shots per game, including 8.25 on target.

Scotland are three points behind second-placed Slovenia and need a win to keep their promotion hopes alive, especially with a trip to Switzerland still to come.

Scott McTominay is back in the Scotland squad after missing the previous meeting. He's scored five goals in 11 games for Napoli this season and is averaging 3.33 shots and 1.25 on target per 90 minutes.

This looks like a good opportunity for Sebastien Pocognoli to claim his first home win as Scotland manager, and I think the Scots can score a couple of goals in the process.

Scotland made light work of North Macedonia in the reverse fixture, claiming a 2-0 success in Skopje.

The scoreline could have been more convincing, given that the Scots posted an xG of 3.45 and fired off 25 shots, 10 of which hit the target.

Scotland also have the added bonus of Che Adams and Scott McTominay returning, which boosts their firepower.

As for North Macedonia, they have endured a miserable campaign, losing all four of their matches and conceding multiple goals in each of those defeats.

With confidence and motivation likely to be low in the visitors’ camp, Scotland look capable of claiming a morale-boosting victory with some room to spare on Friday night.

Scott McTominay is expected to return to the Scotland starting XI on Friday night, and I’m keen to back him to register at least one shot on target.

He is yet to feature in the current Nations League campaign due to injury, but has been back with Napoli for well over a month and is in impressive form.

Indeed, McTominay has scored in each of Napoli’s last two Champions League matches.

He also bagged a brace against Roma last month.

The midfielder has long cut a talismanic figure for the Tartan Army and was a reliable source of shots on target during World Cup qualifying, working the opposition goalkeeper at least once in 5 of his 6 appearances.

He also racked up 3 on-target efforts against Brazil at the World Cup earlier this summer.

John McGinn has long had a reputation as a foul-winning machine, so I’m keen to back the all-action Scotland midfielder to be fouled 2+ times against North Macedonia on Friday night.

Remarkably, McGinn has been fouled a whopping 21 times across Scotland’s opening four Nations League matches, earning his country at least 4 free kicks in each.

He was brought down on no fewer than 6 occasions in last month’s meeting with North Macedonia.

McGinn has also been a foul magnet for Aston Villa this season, drawing 2.83 fouls per game in the Premier League and 1.56 per 90 in the Champions League.

He could come up against Agon Elezi, who committed 2 fouls and picked up a yellow card during North Macedonia’s last match against Switzerland.

Another player I’m keen to back to be fouled is Billy Gilmour.

The midfielder has been one of Scotland’s standout performers across Sebastien Pocognoli’s first four games in charge.

Gilmour sees plenty of possession at the base of midfield, where he looks to dictate the game.

That naturally brings him into close contact with opposition midfielders, which is reflected in the fact that he has been fouled in 3 of his 4 appearances during the current campaign.

That knack for winning free kicks was also evident in Napoli’s Champions League clash with Porto last week, when Gilmour drew 3 fouls.

He could come up against North Macedonia midfield duo Agon Elezi and Eljif Elmas, with the former overstepping the mark 5 times against Scotland last month and the latter committing 2 fouls against Switzerland last time out.

Back Andy Robertson to attempt at least one shot on Friday night.

Since Sebastien Pocognoli took charge, the Scotland skipper has been playing at wing-back and trying his luck more often.

Indeed, Robertson has taken 6 shots across Scotland’s opening four Nations League games, firing off 4 efforts away at North Macedonia in the reverse fixture.

Robertson has also registered 3 efforts across his last three Premier League appearances for Tottenham, one of which was away at Chelsea.

North Macedonia gave up 25 shots to Scotland when the sides met last month, so I fancy Robertson to get another shot away during this clash.

Triple Trade is Racing Ratings' 2nd-favourite horse of the day, with a score of 8.7/10.

He is the joint-favourite for the 14:55, at the time of writing, and comes in off the back of a victory last time out.

He has won three of 12 starts over this distance, finishing in the top three in six of those outings.

Triple Trade won at this meeting in 2025 and 2023, and represents an in-form yard (Joe Tizzard).

He is proven at this level, and it'd be no surprise to see him go off as the favourite come this afternoon.

Soldier In Mayo is one of Racing Ratings' favourite horses of the day, and runs in the 15:05.

He's the strong favourite for the race, around even money, and has finished in the top two in three of his last four.

No other horse in the race has a win to their name in their last five outings.

His trainer and jockey have a good record at this track, and Soldier In Mayo has shown promise at Sedgefield, with a 3rd-placed finish last year.

Soldier In Mayo has won at this level before and first-time cheekpieces could see an improvement after he was narrowly beaten last time out.

Character Testing is one of Racing Ratings' favourite horses of the day, and runs in the 15:15.

He's the 2nd-favourite at the time of writing, and has shortened in odds of late, only trailing Northwest Passage - who has only raced once this season, coming 3rd.

Character Testing has finished in the top two in three of five, winning last time out.

His impressive consistency suggests he's a good bet for an each-way multiple, while today's distance and ground suit him well.

He's proven at this level, has a win at the track under his belt, and renews an ongoing partnership with Jamie Hamilton in the saddle.

Crafty Gael is Racing Ratings' joint-favourite horse of the day, with a score of 9.0/10.

He's the favourite for the final race at Southwell, has shortened in odds of late, and has won two of his last three races.

Crafty Gael has finished in the top two in each of his last four races and the top three in five in a row.

He justified favouritism to win over course and distance as recently as last month.

Today's distance is perfect for him and he's well proven at this level, closest competitor in the market, Keep On Cobbling, has only run once this season and came 3rd.

Switzerland have won all four of their Nations League games and sit top of their group, with 11 goals scored and just one conceded.

They’re averaging 19.75 shots and 8.25 on target per game, while their opponents have managed just three shots on target across all four matches combined.

The Swiss have won both away games 3-0, beating North Macedonia and Scotland, and also beat Slovenia 2-1 in October, dominating possession and creating the better chances.

Dan Ndoye has been one of their standout players, with two goals, three assists and ten shots on target, more than any other player in the competition.

Slovenia have picked up seven points, but Scotland created over 2 xG against them in both meetings, even though Slovenia avoided defeat in both.

The hosts will also be without defenders Erik Janža and David Zec, which is far from ideal when facing one of the best attacks in the Nations League.

The Netherlands have scored and conceded in all four of their Nations League games and have one of the best attacking records in League A, with seven goals and an average of 2.8 xG per game.

They’ve been creating plenty of chances, averaging 22 shots per game, with 7.5 on target, but have struggled at the back.

Even Serbia managed to score against them in both meetings, creating 1.1 and 1.4 xG.

Greece, meanwhile, are still unbeaten and have scored in both away games, including a 1-0 win over Germany.

The two sides drew 2-2 in October, with the Dutch managing 19 shots but conceding twice and having to come back from two goals down.

The Netherlands will be without Van Dijk this time, while Greece have Pavlidis back. He’s currently the top scorer in the Portuguese league, with 11 goals in 11 games.

This looks like a good opportunity for Sebastien Pocognoli to claim his first home win as Scotland manager, and I think the Scots can score a couple of goals in the process.

Scotland made light work of North Macedonia in the reverse fixture, claiming a 2-0 success in Skopje.

The scoreline could have been more convincing, given that the Scots posted an xG of 3.45 and fired off 25 shots, 10 of which hit the target.

Scotland also have the added bonus of Che Adams and Scott McTominay returning, which boosts their firepower.

As for North Macedonia, they have endured a miserable campaign, losing all four of their matches and conceding multiple goals in each of those defeats.

With confidence and motivation likely to be low in the visitors’ camp, Scotland look capable of claiming a morale-boosting victory with some room to spare on Friday night.

Due to a punishment from UEFA, Serbia will be without their usual home support in this one - which decreases home advantage and opens the door for Germany to secure a much needed win.

Serbia have conceded two or more in all four Nations League outings, with this bet winning in three of those four.

The exception in that run was a 2-0 defeat in Germany, with Jurgen Klopp's men generating 3.81 xG - plenty of chances to cover this bet on their own if they can replicate that kind of performance.

Serbia are missing Lukic and Maksimovic to injury as well, so could be more fragile at the back.

Despite the poor campaign, Serbia have scored in three of four and can play with a bit more freedom as relegation to League B is all but confirmed.

Switzerland have won all four of their Nations League games and sit top of their group, with 11 goals scored and just one conceded.

They’re averaging 19.75 shots and 8.25 on target per game, while their opponents have managed just three shots on target across all four matches combined.

The Swiss have won both away games 3-0, beating North Macedonia and Scotland, and also beat Slovenia 2-1 in October, dominating possession and creating the better chances.

Dan Ndoye has been one of their standout players, with two goals, three assists and ten shots on target, more than any other player in the competition.

Slovenia have picked up seven points, but Scotland created over 2 xG against them in both meetings, even though Slovenia avoided defeat in both.

The hosts will also be without defenders Erik Janža and David Zec, which is far from ideal when facing one of the best attacks in the Nations League.

McTominay has been in good form for Napoli, scoring five goals in 11 games this season, including two against Roma, two against Bodø/Glimt and one against Porto.

The midfielder is averaging 3.33 shots and 1.25 on target per 90 minutes, impressive numbers for a player in his position.

He also scored three goals for Scotland in the previous Nations League campaign.

North Macedonia have lost all four of their Nations League games, conceding ten goals and allowing an average of 21 shots per game, with 8.25 on target.

Scotland beat them 2-0 in October but created enough chances to win by an even bigger margin, with 25 shots, ten on target and 3.45 xG.

McTominay missed that game but is back in the squad for this one, and he'll fancy his chances against a North Macedonia defence that's been giving opponents plenty of opportunities.

MK Dons have recovered from a sluggish, and slightly unlucky, start to the campaign to win each of their last five matches and look much more like the side many thought would threaten the playoff spots at the start of the campaign.

Paul Warne has seen his side score at least twice in each of their last four matches, netting 4+ goals in two of the three home games during this run against Doncaster and Bromley.

Aaron Collins has been the main source of goals - netting 13 goals across just 12 starts which is at least three more than any other player in the division. MK Dons have only lost one of their seven games at home this term, netting 15 goals in the process (2.14 per game).

Burton have only managed to win two of their seven away assignments this season, and are likely to be the latest team to come undone against this confident MK Dons side.

The away side have notably only kept two clean sheets across their 14 matches in League One, with these shutouts being quite fortunate against Plymouth (2.52 xG) and Bradford (1.49 xG).

Salford have been near flawless at home this season, winning six of their seven matches and conceding just four goals in the process.

The only side to beat them at home this season was Chesterfield right at the start of the campaign, with that defeat being in a period of adjustment for Salford as they lost their opening three matches of the campaign.

They’ve since recovered really well to win each of their last five matches in League Two, and have some impressive underlying numbers to match.

Only Barnet (28) have scored more goals than Salford (25) in League Two, with the home side here also boasting the fourth best defensive record and having the third highest share of the ball.

Northampton are hovering above the relegation zone in League Two, winning just one of their six away matches this term.

I struggle to see how their scoring power troubling Salford here, they’ve only scored five goals across these games and are the lowest scorers in the division overall with just nine goals - five of which have come from set pieces.

Northampton have also lost their last three matches ahead of this one, including a bruising 4-0 defeat in the FA Cup to York City as the away side.

Morton look capable of making their mark when they travel to Livingston on Saturday.

The Ton have put their poor start to the season behind them and are now among the division’s in-form sides, having racked up four league wins in a row.

During their last away game a fortnight ago, Morton scored three times to defeat league leaders Partick Thistle before following that up with a thrilling 4-3 win over Stenhousemuir last Saturday.

They therefore look well placed to land a blow on a Livingston backline that has been far from watertight this season.

The Lions have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five league games at home, adding weight to the case for the in-form visitors to score in West Lothian this weekend.

East Kilbride returned to winning ways with a 2-1 win away at Queen of the South last weekend, and I think they can follow it up with another victory against Alloa on Saturday.

The K-Park side are going well in their first season in Scottish League One and currently sit third in the table.

East Kilbride have already seen off Queen of the South, Cove Rangers and Peterhead at home this season, and I fancy them to do the same against a struggling Alloa side.

The Wasps have lost seven of their last eight league games and are now on a run of three straight defeats.

What’s more, East Kilbride came out on top in the reverse fixture in mid-September, so I’m happy to back them to get the better of Alloa again.

I think Stranraer look like good value to defeat Kelty Hearts on Saturday, but I’m going to side with the slightly safer option on the double chance.

The Blues are top of Scottish League Two and will make the trip to Fife having avoided defeat in each of their last 11 league games, triumphing in an impressive eight of them.

Their form on the road during that run has been particularly strong, with Chris Aitken’s side winning each of their last four away matches, including comprehensive victories against Annan and Elgin.

As for Kelty Hearts, they are sitting mid-table after last week’s win over bottom club Annan.

However, the Maroon Machine have lost two of their last three home games, against Edinburgh and Elgin, so Stranraer look well placed to extend their unbeaten run.

Triple Trade is Racing Ratings' 2nd-favourite horse of the day, with a score of 8.7/10.

He is the joint-favourite for the 14:55, at the time of writing, and comes in off the back of a victory last time out.

He has won three of 12 starts over this distance, finishing in the top three in six of those outings.

Triple Trade won at this meeting in 2025 and 2023, and represents an in-form yard (Joe Tizzard).

He is proven at this level, and it'd be no surprise to see him go off as the favourite come this afternoon.

Crafty Gael is Racing Ratings' joint-favourite horse of the day, with a score of 9.0/10.

He's the favourite for the final race at Southwell, has shortened in odds of late, and has won two of his last three races.

Crafty Gael has finished in the top two in each of his last four races and the top three in five in a row.

He justified favouritism to win over course and distance as recently as last month.

Today's distance is perfect for him and he's well proven at this level, closest competitor in the market, Keep On Cobbling, has only run once this season and came 3rd.

Morton look capable of making their mark when they travel to Livingston on Saturday.

The Ton have put their poor start to the season behind them and are now among the division’s in-form sides, having racked up four league wins in a row.

During their last away game a fortnight ago, Morton scored three times to defeat league leaders Partick Thistle before following that up with a thrilling 4-3 win over Stenhousemuir last Saturday.

They therefore look well placed to land a blow on a Livingston backline that has been far from watertight this season.

The Lions have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five league games at home, adding weight to the case for the in-form visitors to score in West Lothian this weekend.

Partick Thistle will be keen to put their home defeat to Morton behind them when Inverness visit Firhill on Saturday.

That loss was their first league defeat at home since April 2025, which shows just how difficult the Jags have been to beat on their own patch over the past 18 months.

However, Mark Wilson’s side responded by beating Queen’s Park 1-0 last weekend and extending their lead at the top of the table.

Partick will now fancy their chances against an Inverness side who tend to do their best work at home and have struggled on their travels of late.

Indeed, the Caley Jags have lost three of their last six league games on the road, including a 5-1 hammering at Dunfermline a couple of weeks ago.

This should be a closer contest, but I think Partick can send Inverness home empty-handed.

East Kilbride returned to winning ways with a 2-1 win away at Queen of the South last weekend, and I think they can follow it up with another victory against Alloa on Saturday.

The K-Park side are going well in their first season in Scottish League One and currently sit third in the table.

East Kilbride have already seen off Queen of the South, Cove Rangers and Peterhead at home this season, and I fancy them to do the same against a struggling Alloa side.

The Wasps have lost seven of their last eight league games and are now on a run of three straight defeats.

What’s more, East Kilbride came out on top in the reverse fixture in mid-September, so I’m happy to back them to get the better of Alloa again.

I think Stranraer look like good value to defeat Kelty Hearts on Saturday, but I’m going to side with the slightly safer option on the double chance.

The Blues are top of Scottish League Two and will make the trip to Fife having avoided defeat in each of their last 11 league games, triumphing in an impressive eight of them.

Their form on the road during that run has been particularly strong, with Chris Aitken’s side winning each of their last four away matches, including comprehensive victories against Annan and Elgin.

As for Kelty Hearts, they are sitting mid-table after last week’s win over bottom club Annan.

However, the Maroon Machine have lost two of their last three home games, against Edinburgh and Elgin, so Stranraer look well placed to extend their unbeaten run.

With Scott McTominay expected to be back in the Scotland side, I’m siding with him for a goal or an assist against North Macedonia on Friday night.

McTominay has long been one of the Tartan Army’s biggest goal threats, scoring 3 times during World Cup qualifying, including in home wins over Denmark and Belarus.

He also provided an assist away to Belarus and found the net against Bolivia in Scotland’s final World Cup warm-up fixture.

His recent form for Napoli offers further encouragement, netting 3 goals across his last two outings in the Champions League and a brace against Roma in Serie A last month.

McTominay also tends to take responsibility for penalties when representing Scotland, which adds to the appeal of backing him for a goal involvement here.

Given how I expect this game to play out tactically, I think there’s value in backing Andy Robertson to attempt 2+ shots.

Sebastien Pocognoli has been making use of a back three with wing-backs, which gives the Scotland captain plenty of licence to get into forward areas.

The clearest example came in last month’s reverse fixture, when Robertson let fly on no fewer than 4 occasions.

He also managed 1 shot in Scotland’s home game with Switzerland and another in their away match against Slovenia.

Looking further back, Robertson had 2 attempts in Scotland’s pre-World Cup friendly against Curacao at Hampden.

He’s been getting shots away at club level too, registering 2 against Crystal Palace in Tottenham’s last Premier League home game.

North Macedonia may be enduring a miserable campaign, but Matej Gashtarov has been one of the few players to impress.

The 19-year-old is highly rated and tends to find himself in the thick of the action, drawing plenty of fouls across the three matches he has started so far.

Indeed, he was brought down twice during North Macedonia’s home game with Switzerland, while he won 4 free kicks against Scotland in the reverse fixture.

His club numbers make the case even more compelling, with Gashtarov drawing an average of 2.83 fouls per 90 for Red Star Belgrade in the Serbian top flight this season.

He is likely to come up against combative Scotland midfielder Lewis Ferguson, whose foul count across Scotland’s opening four Nations League games reads 2, 3, 4 and 4.

With Stephen Welsh ruled out through injury, Luke Graham could get the chance to start for Scotland on Friday night, making the young centre-half an attractive option to be fouled at least once.

Graham was a standout performer at both Falkirk and Dundee before earning a move to Stoke.

He is comfortable in possession and can carry the ball into midfield, which often sees him draw contact and win fouls.

That is reflected in the fact that he has drawn a sizeable average of 1.46 fouls per 90 for Stoke in the English Championship this season, being brought down 6 times across his last 3 outings.

He could be pressed and dragged into physical duels with North Macedonia’s Elmin Rastoder, who committed a foul while leading the line against Switzerland last time out.

Notably, Rastoder has committed an average of 1.36 fouls per 90 for Panathinaikos in the Conference League this season, adding to the case for Graham to draw a foul.

Triple Trade is Racing Ratings' 2nd-favourite horse of the day, with a score of 8.7/10.

He is the joint-favourite for the 14:55, at the time of writing, and comes in off the back of a victory last time out.

He has won three of 12 starts over this distance, finishing in the top three in six of those outings.

Triple Trade won at this meeting in 2025 and 2023, and represents an in-form yard (Joe Tizzard).

He is proven at this level, and it'd be no surprise to see him go off as the favourite come this afternoon.

Soldier In Mayo is one of Racing Ratings' favourite horses of the day, and runs in the 15:05.

He's the strong favourite for the race, around even money, and has finished in the top two in three of his last four.

No other horse in the race has a win to their name in their last five outings.

His trainer and jockey have a good record at this track, and Soldier In Mayo has shown promise at Sedgefield, with a 3rd-placed finish last year.

Soldier In Mayo has won at this level before and first-time cheekpieces could see an improvement after he was narrowly beaten last time out.

Character Testing is one of Racing Ratings' favourite horses of the day, and runs in the 15:15.

He's the 2nd-favourite at the time of writing, and has shortened in odds of late, only trailing Northwest Passage - who has only raced once this season, coming 3rd.

Character Testing has finished in the top two in three of five, winning last time out.

His impressive consistency suggests he's a good bet for an each-way multiple, while today's distance and ground suit him well.

He's proven at this level, has a win at the track under his belt, and renews an ongoing partnership with Jamie Hamilton in the saddle.

Crafty Gael is Racing Ratings' joint-favourite horse of the day, with a score of 9.0/10.

He's the favourite for the final race at Southwell, has shortened in odds of late, and has won two of his last three races.

Crafty Gael has finished in the top two in each of his last four races and the top three in five in a row.

He justified favouritism to win over course and distance as recently as last month.

Today's distance is perfect for him and he's well proven at this level, closest competitor in the market, Keep On Cobbling, has only run once this season and came 3rd.

These sides faced off back in March in a contest that produced five goals and saw BTTS & No Draw land with Den Bosch coming away 3-2 winners as the away side.

That game is part of a pattern across recent head to head meetings between these sides, each of the last five meetings have seen BTTS - with four of these games seeing BTTS & No Draw.

The main concern here is the volume of Waalwijk’s games that have finished level this season, but I’m willing to take that on given that none of Den Bosch’s six away assignments have finished level.

Those away matches have produced 18 goals (3.0 per game), with Waalwijk’s home games seeing an even more exaggerated output of goals (28 - 4.0 per game).

Volendam have seen this selection land in each of their last four matches, winning two and losing two of these games.

Their most recent assignment saw them run out 3-2 winners over Helmond - with both sides having seven shots on target in that game. It’s hard to get accurate xG data for the Eerste Divisie, but this is usually a good marker to fall back on.

Roda have seen BTTS & No Draw in each of their last two matches, falling to a 5-1 defeat at the hands of Heracles last time out. Heracles sit top of the league in the Eerste Divisie, so this game should be more competitive.

Only one of Volendam’s 14 matches in the Eerste Divisie this season has finished level. They’ve lost five of their seven matches on the road, seeing 27 goals across these games (3.85 per game).

These sides clashed back in May in a game that produced five goals and saw Volendam come away 3-2 winners. I can see a flip of that result here, given Volendam’s poor away record in the Dutch second division this campaign.

These sides are separated by just one point towards the bottom of the Eerste Divisie table, though De Graafschap do have a game in hand on their opponents - and a win here would put them right back into the playoff race.

Oss have only drawn two of their 14 matches in the Eerste Divisie this season, and have notably lost all seven of their away assignments. They’ve conceded 14 goals across these games, so a home victory looks likely and it’s about making the case for Oss to get on the scoresheet.

De Graafschap almost have just as poor of a record at home, winning just two of their six matches in front of their home fans and conceding 13 goals in the process (2.16 per game).

No side has picked up fewer points than De Graafschap at home in the Eerste Divisie this term, and only one of their six matches has finished level at home.

Helmond are struggling to keep pace with the race for the playoffs in the Eerste Divisie, but their matches are extremely entertaining.

Only three of their 14 matches in the Eerste Divisie have finished level, and they’ve notably lost all six of their away matches - but have scored nine goals across these games, while conceding 17.

Helmond have seen BTTS & No Draw in each of their last four matches, losing three of these games. They travel to an Almere side who have seen BTTS & No Draw in four of their last five matches, including each of the last two.

None of Almere’s six home games in the Eerste Divisie have finished level, with Almere managing to win four of these games and seeing 15 goals in front of their own fans in total (2.50 per game).

Jani Atanasov has picked up four yellow cards in 14 games for Aktobe this season, averaging a booking every 279 minutes.

The midfielder has also been booked in both of his Nations League appearances, including the game against Scotland in October, when he was shown a yellow just six minutes after coming on.

In that 2-0 defeat, North Macedonia committed 20 fouls and picked up five yellow cards.

They’re averaging 3.25 cards per game across their four Nations League matches.

John McGinn could be a handful for Atanasov in midfield. The Scot is averaging 5.2 fouls won per game in the competition and was fouled six times against North Macedonia.

Three players have been booked for fouling McGinn in his last two games: North Macedonia’s Anes Meliqi and Slovenia’s David Zec and Mark Zabukovnik.

Panagiotis Retsos has been picking up more cards this season, with four yellows in eight Greek league games and an average of 1.75 fouls committed per match.

That’s already as many yellow cards as he picked up in 26 league games last season.

He was booked for Greece against Germany recently, after fouling Karim Adeyemi.

Crysencio Summerville could cause similar problems for the Greek defence, with the winger playing in a similar area to Adeyemi.

He was fouled four times against Serbia, including once by Strahinja Pavlović, who was booked. Summerville is also averaging 2.09 fouls won per game for Al-Hilal this season.

When the two sides met in October, the Netherlands had 71% possession and managed 19 shots, keeping Retsos and the rest of the Greek defence pretty busy.

East Kilbride returned to winning ways with a 2-1 win away at Queen of the South last weekend, and I think they can follow it up with another victory against Alloa on Saturday.

The K-Park side are going well in their first season in Scottish League One and currently sit third in the table.

East Kilbride have already seen off Queen of the South, Cove Rangers and Peterhead at home this season, and I fancy them to do the same against a struggling Alloa side.

The Wasps have lost seven of their last eight league games and are now on a run of three straight defeats.

What’s more, East Kilbride came out on top in the reverse fixture in mid-September, so I’m happy to back them to get the better of Alloa again.

I think Stranraer look like good value to defeat Kelty Hearts on Saturday, but I’m going to side with the slightly safer option on the double chance.

The Blues are top of Scottish League Two and will make the trip to Fife having avoided defeat in each of their last 11 league games, triumphing in an impressive eight of them.

Their form on the road during that run has been particularly strong, with Chris Aitken’s side winning each of their last four away matches, including comprehensive victories against Annan and Elgin.

As for Kelty Hearts, they are sitting mid-table after last week’s win over bottom club Annan.

However, the Maroon Machine have lost two of their last three home games, against Edinburgh and Elgin, so Stranraer look well placed to extend their unbeaten run.

There is rarely any shortage of goalmouth action when Norway are involved, which is why I’m backing both teams to score in Oslo on Saturday evening.

All four of the Norwegians’ Nations League matches so far have featured goals at both ends, including a thrilling 3-2 home win over Denmark on matchday one.

BTTS was also a winning selection in all six of Norway’s matches at the World Cup, as well as in three of their four friendlies in the build-up to the tournament.

Wales’ Nations League games have not been as goal-heavy, but they did score twice when beating Norway 2-1 in the reverse fixture.

The Dragons like to play on the front foot under Craig Bellamy and will need to have a go here if they are to boost their hopes of finishing second, which should help make for an open contest in the Norwegian capital.

I think there’s plenty of scope for the two teams to combine for over 8.5 corners on Saturday evening.

Across their Nations League and World Cup campaigns, Norway’s matches have averaged 9.40 corners per game.

Stale Solbakken’s side tend to do much of the heavy lifting, averaging 5.00 corners per 90.

A closer look at Norway’s home games shows there were 11 corners in their opening win over Denmark.

They then took 7 of the 9 corners in their next home game against Portugal.

The reverse fixture with Portugal also saw both teams combine to deliver 10 corners.

Wales’ matches have not been as corner-heavy, but they managed to force 4 away at Denmark and 3 at home to both Denmark and Norway.

If the visitors can contribute a similar number here, I think Norway are more than capable of making up the difference and getting us past the 8.5 line.

I’m fully expecting Ethan Ampadu’s combative streak to be on show on Saturday evening, which is why I’m backing him to commit 2+ fouls.

He does plenty of the dirty work in the middle of the park for club and country, and has committed 9 fouls across his four Nations League appearances for Wales.

Upon closer inspection, Ampadu has committed at least 2 fouls in three of those games, including both away outings, with 4 against Denmark and 2 against Portugal.

Ampadu is likely to have his hands full trying to keep Martin Odegaard quiet.

The Norway captain was fouled 3 times in the reverse fixture and won 4 free kicks at home to Portugal and 3 at home to Denmark.

It’s also worth pointing out that Ampadu has been penalised 2+ times in four of his last five Premier League appearances for Leeds, adding weight to the case for this selection.

Back Neco Williams to be fouled at least once during this contest.

The Welsh full-back plays with plenty of intensity and likes to get stuck in, which often sees him in the thick of the action.

He has been fouled in all four of his Nations League appearances this campaign, earning Wales multiple free kicks in their home win over Norway.

Followers of the Premier League will also know that Williams has a real knack for being fouled at club level, and this season is proving no different.

Indeed, the Nottingham Forest utility man has drawn an average of 1.31 fouls per 90 in the English top flight this term.

He could find himself in a direct battle with Antonio Nusa, who has committed 3 fouls across the three Nations League matches he has started for Norway during the current campaign

Wales pulled off a bit of a shock when these two met in the last international break, running out 2-1 winners which is the one bit of relief that Craig Bellamy has had in recent months as Wales boss.

Wales have lost their other three matches in this Nations League group, but face off against a Norway side with the same record.

That meeting in the last break was pretty entertaining, both sides recorded an xG in excess of 1.0 (1.05-1.31) and there were a combined 45 touches in the opposition box (21-24).

It’s almost impossible for Norway to be involved in low scoring matches, they’ve seen 3+ goals in all four of their games and also saw 3+ goals in every game at the World Cup - stretching this hit rate to 10 games.

Both sides will know that only really a win will give them a chance of challenging Denmark, with Portugal already having a commanding lead at the top of the group - so I expect an open game.

Denmark have scored in all four of their Nations League matches so far, netting twice in three of these games.

This run includes scoring twice against Portugal in the last international break as the home side.

This scoring power has put Denmark in a healthy position in the group, and a draw here could well be enough to see off the dimming threat of Norway and Wales.

Denmark have scored in each of their last 11 competitive matches more widely and the last side to keep them out was Scotland back in September last year as part of World Cup qualifying - the Danes still registered an xG of 1.20 on that occasion from 16 shots.

Portugal have faced Denmark three times over the last year and have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of these games. This includes Denmark netting twice from an xG of 1.98 as the away side last year.

This is a really tight group, with Kosovo and Ireland both sitting on five points while Austria have a narrow lead at the top with eight points.

The meeting between these two nations in the last international break produced four goals as the sides played out a 2-2 draw.

It’s fair to say that Ireland bottled it a bit on that occasion, conceding two goals in the space of six minutes to surrender their first half advantage with both sides posting a healthy xG (1.62-1.37).

Austria have seen 2+ goals in all four of their games in the Nations League, and could cover this line on their own - as they have done in three of the games, netting 3+ goals against both Israel and Kosovo.

Bosnia have long been one of the most aggressive sides in Europe, and topped the charts for both fouls committed and cards collected during World Cup qualifying.

Whilst they aren’t at the top of those charts in the Nations League B setup, they are still posting consistent numbers - averaging 11.5 fouls per game and collecting 10 cards across their four matches (2.5 per game).

They’ve picked up 2+ cards in three of their four matches, getting up to tallies of five and three in two of these games. That shows how Bosnia can unravel at times when things aren’t going their way, which is a similar pattern to the one we saw at the World Cup.

Sweden have drawn 2+ cards from their opponents in three of their four Nations League matches, exceeding this card drawn tally in both of their home matches in the competition.

I think the Republic of Ireland are worth backing to score at least once against Austria on Saturday night.

Heimir Hallgrimsson’s side have looked a greater threat going forward lately, scoring six goals across their last three Nations League games, including three away to Israel and two against Austria in last month’s reverse fixture.

Their strong finish to World Cup qualifying also offers encouragement, with Ireland winning all three of their final matches in the regular phase despite ultimately failing to qualify.

Those wins included a 2-0 success over Portugal at home and a thrilling 3-2 victory away to Hungary.

Ireland then took the Czech Republic to penalties after a 2-2 draw away from home in a World Cup play-off tie in March.

That suggests the visitors are more than capable of making their mark against an Austria side that have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their four Nations League matches, conceding in home wins over Israel and Kosovo.

I’m expecting Austria to be on the front foot for much of this game, so a minimum of five corners looks well within range for the hosts.

Ralf Rangnick’s side are not renowned for racking up high corner totals, but they have taken 5 or more in three of their opening four Nations League matches, including the 2-2 draw away to Ireland on matchday three.

Ireland’s World Cup qualifying campaign offers further encouragement.

They conceded 9 corners away to Portugal and 8 away to Hungary before giving up 6 against the Czech Republic in their play-off tie.

Canada racked up 12 corners against Ireland in a friendly back in June, which adds to the appeal of backing Austria to clear the over 4.5 hurdle.

Troy Parrott looks well placed to attempt at least two shots against Austria on Saturday night.

The Ireland forward is increasingly cutting a talismanic figure for his country, having scored 4 goals across his last three outings, including a brace against Austria in the reverse fixture.

He scored with 2 of his 3 attempts against the Austrians, while he also had 4 efforts against Israel last time out, one of which found the net.

Parrott finished World Cup qualifying strongly too, scoring 6 times across his final three outings and delivering 3 or more shots in each of those contests.

He has been in and out of the Real Betis side in La Liga this season, but still got multiple efforts away against Elche last weekend.

Parrott has also attempted at least 2 shots in Champions League appearances against both Feyenoord and Lille this term.

Austria have looked shaky at the back throughout their Nations League campaign, so I fancy Parrott to get at least two shots away again on Saturday night.

I’m also keen to back Troy Parrott to be fouled at least once at the Raiffeisen Arena on Saturday night.

The Ireland forward works tirelessly up front, looking to stretch defences with runs in behind, working the channels and holding the ball up with his back to goal.

That makes him a handful for defenders, who regularly end up fouling him.

Indeed, Parrott has been fouled 5 times in four Nations League appearances for Ireland, including once against Austria in Dublin last month.

He also won a free kick away to the Czech Republic in March’s play-off tie.

His recent domestic figures for Real Betis add weight to the case, with Parrott having been fouled five times across his last two La Liga appearances.

He is likely to get drawn into plenty of physical duels with Kevin Danso, who has committed 5 fouls across his three Nations League appearances for Austria and gave away multiple free kicks in their home game against Israel.

Six goals were scored when these sides met in Copenhagen last month, with Portugal eventually running out 4-2 winners. Denmark equalised twice through Mikkel Damsgaard and Rasmus Hojlund, before goals from Vitinha and Joao Felix settled the contest. There were a total of 31 shots in that match, of which 13 hit the target.

Portugal were particularly dangerous, accounting for ten of those efforts on target, but it was far from a one-sided contest. Denmark finished the match with 12 shots, and they actually recorded more possession than Portugal. Over 2.5 goals has landed in each of the last three matches for Portugal, including twice against Norway.

Portugal won seven corners against Denmark in the reverse fixture, clearing this line despite having just 46% possession. They should be able to exert more control on this game, given that the Selecao will benefit from home advantage. Still, Portugal have been effective at getting to the byline, and they often prefer to utilise width with attack-minded fullbacks.

They are averaging 6.3 corners per game in the Nations League so far, hitting this mark in three of their four matches. That includes six corners against Norway at home last time out. Meanwhile, Denmark are conceding an average of 4.5 corners per game at the Nations League this season, but this upcoming clash promises to be their toughest matchup of the group.

Hojlund is another player who has been in notable goalscoring form, both domestically and for his national side. The 23-year-old recently found the back of the net against Monza, as his side came away with a comfortable 4-1 win. Hojlund is averaging 2.48 shots per 90 across all competitions for Napoli, with 38% of those efforts hitting the target.

He scored Denmark’s second goal against Portugal in Copenhagen, finishing after being slipped through by Mikkel Damsgaard. Hojlund had five shots against Wales in his last appearance for Denmark - three of those attempts hit the target, and one found the back of the net which proved decisive.

Gustav Isaksen also recorded five shots in that game, and he is averaging 4.15 shots per 90 for Denmark at the Nations League so far, but the winger looks set for a larger defensive responsibility against Portugal this weekend. Isaksen has started twice for the Danes this season, and he has recorded exactly two infringements in both matches.

He now looks set to feature on the same flank as Nuno Mendes, who likes to maraude forward and have the ball at his feet. The PSG fullback has been fouled six times in his four starts for Portugal this season, averaging 1.55 fouls drawn per 90 which is one of the highest figures in the squad.

Italy are finally starting to look like a serious footballing nation under Roberto Mancini, losing just one of their five matches in the Nations League and earning a 3-1 win over France last time out.

Mancini’s philosophy is something that the Italian national team has needed for some time. He’s sought to completely rebuild the image of the national team, and crucially has started trusting younger players - who were previously denied development pathways to the national team.

Despite their improvement, Italy have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their five matches - seeing BTTS in four of these games. Mancini has had to sacrifice some of the defensive rigidity many have come to associate with Italy for this improvement.

Belgium have only kept two clean sheets across their five Nations League matches, seeing BTTS in each of their last two matches against France and Türkiye. Their 2-0 win over Italy earlier in the campaign came despite Mancini’s side producing an xG of 1.70 from 21 shots - while Belgium generated an xG of 2.76 themselves from 19 efforts.

It’s hard to see how this is a low scoring game with the attacking talent on show, and lack of defensive structure from England in particular.

Centre back has long been a problem area for England, and this was highlighted against Croatia during the week with the duo of Burn and Quansah looking quite shaky throughout the game.

England will be more routinely punished for those mistakes by this Spain side, who have scored 2+ goals in all five of their Nations League matches and came away 3-2 winners at Wembley when the sides last met.

This has become a bit of a grudge match over recent years too, with each of the last five head to head clashes between the nations seeing 3+ goals - including the final of the 2024 European Championship, which Spain won 2-1.

England have seen 3+ goals in four of their five Nations League matches this term, with the exception of a 2-0 win over Czechia where England coasted to a victory after Czechia went down to 10 men early on.

Italy are finally starting to look like a serious footballing nation under Roberto Mancini, losing just one of their five matches in the Nations League and earning a 3-1 win over France last time out.

Mancini’s philosophy is something that the Italian national team has needed for some time. He’s sought to completely rebuild the image of the national team, and crucially has started trusting younger players - who were previously denied development pathways to the national team.

Despite their improvement, Italy have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their five matches - seeing BTTS in four of these games. Mancini has had to sacrifice some of the defensive rigidity many have come to associate with Italy for this improvement.

Belgium have only kept two clean sheets across their five Nations League matches, seeing BTTS in each of their last two matches against France and Türkiye. Their 2-0 win over Italy earlier in the campaign came despite Mancini’s side producing an xG of 1.70 from 21 shots - while Belgium generated an xG of 2.76 themselves from 19 efforts.

Türkiye are such a strange national team.

The idea of them seems to be so far removed from the actual performances you see on the pitch, which is why they’re almost always touted as ‘dark horses’ in major tournaments.

There’s clearly talent in the squad, most notably Arda Guler, but there is an obvious lack of tactical direction and an inability to be clinical - which is why they’ve lost all five of their matches in the Nations League.

They’ve only scored three goals across these games too, which is the main concern against a France side who have scored in all five of their Nations League matches and even put four past Belgium at home.

It’s not a full strength France side, but it doesn’t need to be to beat this Türkiye side. They are guaranteed to finish bottom, while France’s defeat to Italy last time out adds importance to this game as the race for the top two spots is still wide open.

Croatia put in a very strong display at Wembley during the week, narrowly losing 2-1 but putting in a better account of themselves than the 7-0 loss they suffered to England in the previous international break.

The likes of Kovacic, Vuskovic, Livakovic and Baturina give Croatia a solid spine of talented players which is more than good enough to see off opponents at the level of Czechia - but probably stops short of challenging the very elite sides in Europe.

Croatia’s run of form looks bad on paper, but I wouldn’t read too much into that. They played Spain and England twice across their last four matches, who are two of the very best sides in the world right now. Czechia will be a much more manageable opponent, as Croatia have already shown.

They beat Czechia 2-1 in the reverse fixture as the away side, generating an xG of 1.84 from 16 shots and limiting their opponents to just two shots on target.

They also took on Czechia as part of their World Cup qualifying campaign, winning 5-1 as the home side with an xG of 3.63.

Czechia have lost all five of their matches in this Nations League group, scoring just twice. They’ve conceded 12 goals in the process as well and are unlikely to have the quality to challenge this Croatia side - who are far more capable than their recent run of form suggests.

It’s hard to see how this is a low scoring game with the attacking talent on show, and lack of defensive structure from England in particular.

Centre back has long been a problem area for England, and this was highlighted against Croatia during the week with the duo of Burn and Quansah looking quite shaky throughout the game.

England will be more routinely punished for those mistakes by this Spain side, who have scored 2+ goals in all five of their Nations League matches and came away 3-2 winners at Wembley when the sides last met.

This has become a bit of a grudge match over recent years too, with each of the last five head to head clashes between the nations seeing 3+ goals - including the final of the 2024 European Championship, which Spain won 2-1.

England have seen 3+ goals in four of their five Nations League matches this term, with the exception of a 2-0 win over Czechia where England coasted to a victory after Czechia went down to 10 men early on.

Antonio Nusa is in excellent form for RB Leipzig, with six goals and eight assists in 15 games this season.

He's scored or assisted in each of his last five games, including a goal against Manchester City in the Champions League and a Bundesliga assist despite playing just 25 minutes.

He’s averaging 2.62 shots and 1.24 on target per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga.

He’s already scored nine goals for his country and now faces a Wales side that have lost three of their four Nations League games.

Wales are allowing an average of 17 shots per match, but that goes up to 21.5 in their two away games.

Norway, meanwhile, have scored in every game in the competition and even managed 22 shots, including six on target, in their defeat to Portugal in September.

De Graafschap have been one of the teams with the most BTTS games in the Eerste Divisie, with both teams scoring in 11 of their 13 matches, including five of their six home games.

Defence has been one of their biggest problems, as they’re averaging 1.99 xGA and are among the three teams allowing the most shots in the league.

In October, they drew 2-2 with bottom-of-the-table Eindhoven, allowing 11 shots on target.

TOP Oss have similar problems, allowing an average of 19.2 shots and 1.96 xGA per game.

Despite losing all seven away games, they’re still producing 1.22 xG per match and have managed to score against some of the league’s top sides.

Against Venlo, for example, they created five big chances and had 12 shots.

De Graafschap have scored in every home game this season, while both meetings between these sides last season saw goals at both ends and plenty of shots.

Heracles sit top of the Dutch second division and have the best attack in the league, averaging 3.14 goals per game.

They’re averaging an impressive 21.86 shots per game, including 8.57 on target.

Dordrecht, meanwhile, sit 18th and have the joint-worst defence in the league alongside Jong Utrecht, with 34 goals conceded.

At home, they’ve let in 17 goals in seven games, including six against Jong AZ and four against VVV-Venlo.

Despite the gap between the two sides, Heracles are yet to keep a clean sheet away from home.

They’ve conceded in all seven away games, with six of them seeing both teams score.

Dordrecht have shown they can score against stronger opponents too, putting three past Almere City and two past VVV-Venlo.

Venlo have scored in every league game this season and are averaging 2.71 goals per match at home.

They’re creating plenty of chances, averaging 15.64 shots per game, but they’re also conceding 1.57 goals per match.

Their opponents, Eindhoven, sit bottom of the table and have one of the worst defences in the league.

Despite their poor form, they’ve scored in ten of their 14 games this season, with 64% seeing both teams score.

Venlo haven’t been much better at keeping goals out, conceding in eight of their last ten matches.

They’ve now had four straight games with goals at both ends, including a 4-4 draw with Jong AZ and a 4-2 win over Dordrecht.

Waalwijk have been involved in some really entertaining games at home, averaging four total goals per match, with all seven seeing BTTS.

They’re a completely different side at home, with just six of their 23 goals this season coming away from their own ground.

Den Bosch put in an excellent performance on their last away trip, thrashing Emmen 5-0.

Their attacking numbers are strong, averaging 16.6 shots and 5.4 on target per game.

At the back, though, they’re far less convincing, allowing an incredible 8.3 shots on target per game away from home.

They’ve scored more goals than Waalwijk, but they’ve also conceded more.

In the last round, they drew 1-1 with the second-bottom side, with both teams having at least 17 shots.

These sides met in October, with Portugal winning 4-2 in a game that saw 31 shots between them, including 13 on target.

Portugal have won all four Nations League games, scoring nine goals, the third-highest tally in League A.

They’re averaging 18.5 shots per game, with 6.5 on target, but have conceded in each of their last three matches.

Denmark have scored in all four games too, with seven goals and average of 14.5 shots per match.

Rasmus Højlund has been their main attacking threat, scoring three goals from 12 shots.

The problem is that Denmark have struggled against stronger attacks, conceding four against Portugal and another three against Norway.

Atlético-MG scored twice against Flamengo recently, but they’ve also conceded in 14 of their 17 away league games.

They’re fifth in the Brasileirão for chances created and will have more time to focus on the league after being knocked out of the Copa do Brasil.

Bernard and Tomás Cuello have scored five league goals each and will be facing a defence averaging 1.61 xGA.

Mirassol have been at their best at home, averaging 16.4 shots and scoring in 15 of their 17 home games in the Brasileirão.

Their defence has conceded in 31 of 34 games, though, and that’s a big reason why they’re fighting against relegation.

Atlético-MG won the reverse fixture 3-1 earlier this year, in an open game that saw three big chances in each half.

Medic has won his last four fights by first-round knockout, and those four wins lasted a combined 3 minutes and 50 seconds. All 14 of his professional wins have been finishes, and he has never gone the distance in his career, win or lose.

He’s a creative, high-volume striker. He lands more than five significant strikes per minute at close to 60% accuracy, and his game includes spinning attacks, a sharp left hand and excellent kicks and knees. The concern is his defence. He can get wild and overextend, and he’s been dropped three times in the UFC.

Holland comes off a bounce-back decision win over Randy Brown, which ended a two-fight losing streak. He’s powerful and holds a 10-inch reach advantage (81" to 71"), but his UFC record is patchy: 16-12 (and one no contest) across 29 fights. His striking has become sloppy and isn’t as crisp as it once was. He’s still dangerous with his submissions, and 23 of his 29 pro wins have come inside the distance. If Medic lands clean early, I expect another quick night’s work.

Borralho is 8-1 in the UFC, 18-2 as a pro and fifth in the middleweight rankings. He faces the unranked Belgaroui, who is 3-0 in the UFC with every win coming by TKO.

It’s a strange booking for Borralho. Instead of fighting a ranked opponent to move towards a title shot, he’s taking on an unranked prospect, which gets him no closer to the belt.

Borralho is an elite grappler, but lately he has abandoned that side of his game, spending most of his time striking and landing just one takedown in his last five fights. On the feet he’s measured rather than destructive. He lands around 3.3 significant strikes per minute, and six of his eight UFC wins have gone to the judges.

Belgaroui is a world-class kickboxer with a long frame. He stands 6'6" with a 79-inch reach, four inches longer than Borralho’s. He even holds a kickboxing win over Alex Pereira, the former UFC middleweight and light heavyweight champion. His striking is clean and busy: 6.4 significant strikes per minute at 63% accuracy, almost double Borralho’s output. He has a stinging jab and nasty knees from close range and from distance. He’s also resilient, having shown he can be taken down, get back to his feet and still finish fights in the later rounds.

I’m taking the underdog. Belgaroui will keep this at range and land vicious shots every time Borralho tries to close the distance.

Nunes is coming out of retirement after three years. Harrison returns from a lengthy layoff with a neck injury, the same injury that pulled this fight from UFC 324 in January.

This fight is for GOAT status in women’s MMA, and I don’t believe Nunes is coming back just for a payday.

Harrison is a two-time Olympic judo gold medallist. She’s at her most effective with throws, sweeps and a wide array of takedowns, and once the fight hits the ground she smothers her opponents. She will get Nunes to the mat, but I don’t believe she’ll keep her there long enough.

Harrison’s cardio is also a question. She’s going through an extreme weight cut and has said on record that it’s taking “years off her life”.

Nunes has the hardest punch in women’s MMA history. She’s an elite, durable striker with a three-inch reach advantage, and Harrison simply can’t match her on the feet. Everything Harrison does in this fight is a means to an end, and that end is getting it to the ground. Nunes is the more well-rounded fighter and has more ways to win.

Gane is coming off a huge second-round KO of Alex Pereira. He’s an incredible athlete and a dynamic striker: patient, very accurate (62% of his significant strikes land) and excellent at finding openings.

He’s also the bigger man, at 6'4" with an 81-inch reach against Hokit’s 6'1" and 73 inches. He’s far more experienced too, with wins over top UFC names. His only losses came against Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou.

Hokit is 4-0 in the UFC (10-0 overall) and made his debut just over a year ago. His antics outside the cage have thrust him into the spotlight, but make no mistake, he’s a very good athlete and a well-rounded fighter. He pushes the pace, chains takedowns and throws huge volume, landing 9.29 significant strikes per minute. That output comes at a cost, though. He absorbs more than five significant strikes a minute, and he headhunts rather than mixing his levels: 91% of his significant strikes go to the head, compared with 45% for Gane.

Gane is elusive, absorbing only around 2.3 strikes per minute, and has far more high-level experience. Hokit needs a perfect performance to win. From what we’ve seen, Hokit won’t settle for a close decision. At some point he’ll open up and go for broke, and that’s when Gane will find the openings to finish it by KO/TKO.