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Levi Colwill is one of the few Chelsea players that has a personal connection to this game, having come through the youth ranks at Chelsea.

He’s collected one yellow card this season, which he picked up against Fulham on Matchday 1 in the West London derby. He hasn’t played Tottenham for a few seasons due to injury, so he’ll relish this clash.

Colwill’s last full season was the 2024/25 campaign, where he picked up nine yellow cards across just 35 starts - only Moises Caicedo (11) picked up more cautions for the Blues during that campaign.

He’ll be up against another Cobham product in Dominic Solanke, who can be quite clever with his body. It’s also notable that Colwill will be on the same side as Kudus (2.93 fouls won per 90), I can see the Chelsea centre back having to make a tactical foul against the winger when Hato gets caught higher up the pitch. 

Micky Van de Ven was cautioned in this fixture last season and will be up against Joao Pedro and Cole Palmer here, who could both cause him real issues.

Van de Ven relies too much on his speed. It’s an impressive asset to have, but it’s not very helpful against strikers like Joao Pedro who are comfortable with getting the ball into feet and turning.

Joao Pedro has won 14 fouls across his six starts in the Premier League this season (2.42 per 90), underlining just how impressive his hold up play has been this season.

Cole Palmer will also be operating in pockets around the Dutchman, and can easily drag him out of position with his clever movement. He’s the second most fouled player in the Chelsea squad this term (12), so Van de Ven has the two most fouled Chelsea players this season as his direct opponents here.  

It’s no coincidence that Chelsea have looked a lot harder to beat since Moises Caicedo’s return to the starting lineup, with the midfielder forming a surprisingly strong partnership with Henderson in the middle of the park.

Caicedo has committed a foul in both of his Premier League starts this season, committing three fouls against Everton last time out. He was very fortunate to avoid a yellow card, contesting seven duels in total at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.

This is obviously a small sample size, but Caicedo has been a reckless presence in the Chelsea midfield for some time. He committed more fouls than any other Chelsea player last season (54), averaging 1.73 fouls committed per 90 - ranking in the 99th percentile when compared with other Premier League midfielders for this metric. 

James Maddison returned to the Tottenham starting lineup against Coventry last time out, and was fouled four times. He’d be an ideal opponent for Caicedo here. 

I highlighted this angle in Tottenham’s game against Coventry last week, and it landed in the first half with Van Hecke playing as the right sided centre back when Tottenham had the ball.

Van Hecke has been fouled in four of his last five Premier League matches, only five Tottenham players have won more fouls than Van Hecke (7) this season - so it’s a consistent part of his game, and I think he can be fouled at least once in this London derby.

Van Hecke ranks in the 84th percentile when compared to other centre backs in the Premier League for fouls won. Playing as that right sided centre back should see Van Hecke run into Jorrel Hato and Morgan Rogers, who are averaging 1.43 fouls committed per 90 between them this term.

Emi Martinez had to come off on a stretcher at the Hill Dickinson stadium last week, meaning Mike Penders will step into the number one role for Chelsea here.

Penders is talented, but inexperienced and I think we’ll see Tottenham try and capitalise on that with some early long range efforts to test the keeper - who had to make four stops in his only start this season against Leeds in the EFL Cup.

Emi Martinez was forced into making 25 saves across just six starts in the Premier League prior to his injury, more than any other keeper in the division. This works out to an average of 4.29 saves per 90, we just need Penders to make two here.

Martinez was forced into making 3+ saves in all six of these matches, suggesting that Chelsea are too easy to take aim against - and will need Penders to make at least two saves here if they are to get all three points. 

Palmer was shooting from everywhere against Everton last time out, managing six shots in total - with one of those attempts finding the target.

Palmer is not very selective with his efforts, one of those shots was an audacious lob over Pickford which narrowly missed the target. His willingness to consistently take on these types of attempts makes him a good player to find the target at least twice.

Palmer has had more shots than any other Chelsea player this season (23 - 3.33 per 90), with only Joao Pedro and Pedro Neto (8) having more efforts on target for Chelsea so far this campaign.

Only two Chelsea players had more shots on target than Palmer (25) in the Premier League last season, with that being a version of the former City man that was battling with injury and not playing with the confidence we see from him now.

Palmer has also had 3+ shots in each of his last three matches against Tottenham, finding the target twice in two of these games. 

Palmer was shooting from everywhere against Everton last time out, managing six shots in total - with one of those attempts finding the target.

Palmer is not very selective with his efforts, one of those shots was an audacious lob over Pickford which narrowly missed the target. His willingness to consistently take on these types of attempts makes him a good player to find the target at least twice.

Palmer has had more shots than any other Chelsea player this season (23 - 3.33 per 90), with only Joao Pedro and Pedro Neto (8) having more efforts on target for Chelsea so far this campaign.

Only two Chelsea players had more shots on target than Palmer (25) in the Premier League last season, with that being a version of the former City man that was battling with injury and not playing with the confidence we see from him now.

Palmer has also had 3+ shots in each of his last three matches against Tottenham, finding the target twice in two of these games. 

I needed Kudus to be fouled three times for my 20/1 Tottenham v Coventry High Odds BB last week, and the selection landed through Super Sub with Kulusevski coming on for Kudus and winning the final foul needed.

Kudus is a player that Spurs have missed for a while, they don’t have many players as comfortable at carrying the ball as Kudus is - with this trait also making him a good player to back to win fouls, especially against a Chelsea side who can still be a bit petulant.

Kudus has won more fouls than any other Tottenham player so far this season (9 - 2.93 per 90). This is a small sample size, but it’s long been a strong part of Kudus’ game, if you go back to his final season at West Ham - Kudus averaged 2.21 fouls won per 90, and crucially 3.18 dribbles per 90.

Kudus has been fouled in each of his last five Premier League matches, winning multiple fouls in three of these games. 

Levi Colwill is one of the few Chelsea players that has a personal connection to this game, having come through the youth ranks at Chelsea.

He’s collected one yellow card this season, which he picked up against Fulham on Matchday 1 in the West London derby. He hasn’t played Tottenham for a few seasons due to injury, so he’ll relish this clash.

Colwill’s last full season was the 2024/25 campaign, where he picked up nine yellow cards across just 35 starts - only Moises Caicedo (11) picked up more cautions for the Blues during that campaign.

He’ll be up against another Cobham product in Dominic Solanke, who can be quite clever with his body. It’s also notable that Colwill will be on the same side as Kudus (2.93 fouls won per 90), I can see the Chelsea centre back having to make a tactical foul against the winger when Hato gets caught higher up the pitch. 

Micky Van de Ven was cautioned in this fixture last season and will be up against Joao Pedro and Cole Palmer here, who could both cause him real issues.

Van de Ven relies too much on his speed. It’s an impressive asset to have, but it’s not very helpful against strikers like Joao Pedro who are comfortable with getting the ball into feet and turning.

Joao Pedro has won 14 fouls across his six starts in the Premier League this season (2.42 per 90), underlining just how impressive his hold up play has been this season.

Cole Palmer will also be operating in pockets around the Dutchman, and can easily drag him out of position with his clever movement. He’s the second most fouled player in the Chelsea squad this term (12), so Van de Ven has the two most fouled Chelsea players this season as his direct opponents here.  

João Pedro is Chelsea's top scorer this season with five goals in six games and also averages more shots on target per 90 minutes than anyone else in the team.

He's scored in every home game so far and is second in the team for shots, averaging almost three attempts per game.

Chelsea have scored at least twice in every home game this season, and four of João Pedro's five goals have come at Stamford Bridge.

Tottenham are allowing an average of 16 shots per away game in the Premier League and have an xGA of 1.78.

They haven't looked too convincing at the back either, conceding five goals in their last three games, including one against Coventry.

With João Pedro playing so well at home and Spurs giving away so many chances, there's a good chance the Chelsea striker could add to his goal tally here.

Moulin Booj tops today’s board at 9.3, and he is a Southwell specialist in the truest sense.

George Scott’s gelding has built his career on the Nottinghamshire sand over the minimum trips, and by early 2025 he was rated 83 and had four career wins on the board.

That’s the shape of him: a sprinter who knows this track inside out, has been placed repeatedly over course and distance, and runs his race more often than not.

Darragh Keenan takes the ride at 9st 11lb. George Scott’s Newmarket operation has gone from strength to strength - Group 1 success with Bay City Roller, Isle Of Jura’s Bahrain Triple Crown, and a new Dubai satellite yard opening this winter.

Finn Ironside rates 8.7, and the angle here is a handicap mark that’s been drifting steadily in his favour.

Ivan Furtado’s five-year-old has been sliding down the weights all year - rated 67 in January, 66 in February, 64 in March, 63 by April.

He responded to that last drop with his best run of the season, a third of sixteen at Doncaster over 7f on good to firm under Hollie Doyle, beaten just a length and a quarter at 7/1. He was second at Newcastle at the end of July, so the form hasn’t gone away.

His lifetime record reads three wins from 24 starts at 13%, and crucially he’s shown a small level-stakes profit over his career, a horse the market tends to underrate.

Elle-May Croot keeps the ride and knows him better than anyone, having partnered him through most of the past two seasons. Furtado runs a sharp Newark operation that has finished as high as fifth in the trainers’ championship on a string of around 25 winter horses.

Inter look on course to mount another title challenge after winning the league with ease last season, and this looks like a winnable game at home against a Fiorentina side who have lost their last two matches.

Fiorentina have been in turmoil ever since they reached the Conference League final a few seasons ago. They almost got relegated after a really poor start to the season last year and have only managed to win one of their opening seven matches this term, losing five of those games.

Inter have won six of their opening seven matches, with the exception of a 2-2 draw on the road against Roma - who also look like challenging for the Scudetto this season. Inter have won all four of their games at home in Serie A this term, scoring 15 goals in the process.

They’ve beaten Fiorentina in each of the last three head to head meetings as the home side, coinciding with Fiorentina’s downturn as a club over the last few years.

This will be a massive test for Feyenoord as they try to prise the Eredivisie title away from PSV, who have been crowned champions in each of the last two seasons.

Feyenoord have avoided defeat in all of their nine games in the Eredivisie this term, winning seven of them and scoring more goals than any other side in the division (31 - 3.44 per game).

They’ve also won all five of their away matches, netting 20 goals in the process. Their preparation for this potential six pointer in the title race couldn’t be better, but PSV will be just as motivated to ensure they don’t lose more ground in the fight for the Eredivisie title.

PSV have scored 13 goals across their four games in the Eredivisie this term, but have only managed to keep a clean sheet in one of these matches. In fact, PSV have only kept one shutout all season - most recently conceding twice and seeing BTTS against a newly promoted Den Haag side. 

Brighton have been the most exciting team to watch in the Premier League so far this season, scoring more goals than any other side in the division across their opening seven matches (23 - 3.29 per game).

Fabian Hurzeler’s side have seen 3+ goals in five of these games, covering this line on their own on four of those occasions. They also saw 3+ goals in their EFL Cup victory over United, as well as their opening game of the Conference League - beating Kauno 4-0.

Liverpool have been playing some really chaotic, but entertaining, football under Iraola so far. They’ve had to come from behind in each of their last two matches, seeing 3+ goals in each of their last four matches.

Liverpool have conceded 2+ goals in three of these matches, so there should be opportunities for Brighton to extend their impressive scoring record at the start of this season. 

Hoffenheim covered this line on their own on Thursday, beating a rotated Lyon side 3-0 with an xG of 2.09 from 22 shots.

They’ve seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches - and in every single Bundesliga game this term. Overall, Hoffenheim have seen 25 goals across their six games in the German top flight (4.16 per game).

Leverkusen come into this game in excellent form having won each of their last five matches, seeing 3+ goals in three of these matches. Their three away matches in the Bundesliga have produced 16 goals (5.33 per game), 64% of their total goals have come on the road.

This tends to be an entertaining fixture too, nine of the last ten head to head meetings between the sides have seen 3+ goals.

Both fighters are explosive. Each has won around 64% of his fights by knockout. Pico rarely goes the distance, with only 3 of his 19 fights reaching the scorecards. Keita has the more durable record, having been stopped just once, though 7 of his 19 fights have gone to a decision. Over their last 5 fights, each has heard the final bell only twice.

Pico is a very dangerous boxer, he throws a lot of power with each strike and has incredible hand speed. His striking is so dangerous because he mixes in his wrestling, keeping his opponents guessing and giving him the opportunity to tire them out and create openings. 

Keita is coming off a nasty KO win against Muhammad Naimov, putting him out cold. His footwork can get sloppy and he leaves his chin exposed, but he has the power to punish Pico, whose own chin has been questioned since his spinning back elbow KO loss to Lerrone Murphy.

This will be a high-speed, explosive fight between two very skilled athletes and there’s likely a top 5 spot in the rankings up for grabs.  

Temirov is on a 12-fight win streak and coming off a nasty knockout of Steve Erceg in July. He pushes the pace and swings every shot like a knockout attempt.  

Kavanagh is 1-2 in his last three fights in the UFC. He was 7-0 before the UFC, counting the Contender Series. His last outing was a loss via submission to Brandon Royval but he does hold a win over Brandon Moreno, the former Flyweight world champion.  

Temirov brings more volume (4.73 significant strikes a minute to 4.13), better striking defence (62% vs 53%) and a perfect takedown defence record. 

Kavanagh is tipped by many to have a much higher ceiling as he’s only 27, but for right now, I think Temirov will have enough. 

The bantamweight title is on the line in a rubber match between two of the division’s all-time greats, and this is where the value in the acca lies. Merab is an underdog at the time of writing but I think the price will shorten fast.

The pair are 1-1. Merab won every round of their first fight in 2023, but Yan returned the favour at UFC 323 last December, when Merab landed just 2 of his 29 takedown attempts. That was Merab’s fourth fight of a calendar year, all of them 5-rounders, so fatigue may have set in.

It’s tough to pick against Yan after that rematch. His bodywork was superb, he took away Merab’s wrestling and he fought with a really high fight IQ. But this time Merab has had 10 months off to rest and rethink, and I'm backing him to regain the belt.

Volkanovski is one of the greatest featherweights of all time. He’s beaten Max Holloway three times, and the list goes on: José Aldo, Brian Ortega, the Korean Zombie and Yair Rodríguez. He even moved up to lightweight and ran Islam Makhachev close.

The elephant in the room is age. At 38, Volk’s durability and reactions are open to question, but the cardio is still there.

Evloev doesn’t get the credit he deserves. He’s 20-0, a high-volume wrestler who averages close to 5 takedowns per 15 minutes, with clean striking, good kicks and excellent cardio. But he hasn’t finished anyone in the UFC and only edged Lerone Murphy on a majority decision in March.

Volk comes off two wins over Diego Lopes, and if his 69% takedown defence keeps this standing, he has a big edge on the feet. It’s incredibly hard to take rounds off him without a big moment like a knockdown, and I can’t see Evloev grinding out enough of them.

I think Roma can avoid defeat when they travel to Napoli on Saturday evening.

Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have made a quietly impressive start to the season, remaining unbeaten in Serie A with five wins and two draws from their opening seven matches.

The capital club have already held Inter Milan to a 2-2 draw at home, while they battled to a spirited 0-0 draw away at Como after receiving a red card early in the second half.

As for Napoli, their start to the season has been a lot more mixed, with Max Allegri’s men winning three, drawing one and losing three of their opening seven league games.

Notably, Napoli have already lost to both Inter and Como this season, and suffered a 1-0 defeat away at Venezia in their most recent Serie A outing.

The hosts may have beaten Bodo/Glimt 4-3 in the Champions League in midweek, but defeats to Arsenal and Villarreal in their opening two matches strengthen the case for Roma on the double chance.

Look for Napoli and Roma to combine for at least 9 match corners at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Saturday evening.

The Partenopei’s fixtures have been particularly corner-heavy across the opening seven rounds of Serie A, producing an average of 10.71 corners per game.

Much of that is down to Max Allegri’s men, who have averaged 6.43 corners per 90, a tally bettered only by Como and Juventus.

On closer inspection, all 7 of Napoli’s league games this season have featured at least 9 corners, with the hosts winning 9 or more themselves in two of those matches, including last week’s defeat to Venezia.

Roma should contribute, too. They have averaged 5.14 corners per game in Serie A this term and forced 8 in both their away win at Torino and their Champions League win against Slovan Bratislava earlier this week.

Donyell Malen has been one of Roma’s standout performers this season, and I’m backing the Dutchman to have at least one shot on target.

The former Aston Villa forward has scored 6 goals in as many Serie A appearances this season and is expected to return to the starting XI after serving a suspension against Genoa last week.

Moreover, Malen was back in the side in midweek, scoring against Slovan Bratislava after bagging a brace against Real Madrid the week before.

His goalscoring output can be attributed to a sizeable average of 2.26 shots on target per game in Serie A this season, with Malen hitting the target at least once in five of his six outings and recording 2+ on-target efforts in three of those contests.

Napoli have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 3 matches, conceding 3 goals and allowing 15 shots against Bodo/Glimt on Tuesday night, further strengthening the case for Malen to register at least one shot on target here.

Scott McTominay is a player I always like to target in the shots market, and he looks worth backing to attempt two or more efforts against Roma on Saturday evening.

After a spell on the sidelines, the Scotland international has returned to the Napoli side in recent weeks and his impact has been noteworthy.

Indeed, McTominay scored twice from 7 attempts against Bodo/Glimt on Tuesday night.

The week before, he came off the bench against Villarreal and had 2 efforts in a half-hour run-out.

He also racked up 6 attempts across the full 90 minutes in Napoli’s defeat at Venezia last weekend, underlining his shoot-on-sight approach.

Further encouragement comes from the fact that McTominay averaged 3.16 attempts per game in Serie A last season, adding to the appeal of backing him to let fly at least twice against Roma.

Moulin Booj tops today’s board at 9.3, and he is a Southwell specialist in the truest sense.

George Scott’s gelding has built his career on the Nottinghamshire sand over the minimum trips, and by early 2025 he was rated 83 and had four career wins on the board.

That’s the shape of him: a sprinter who knows this track inside out, has been placed repeatedly over course and distance, and runs his race more often than not.

Darragh Keenan takes the ride at 9st 11lb. George Scott’s Newmarket operation has gone from strength to strength - Group 1 success with Bay City Roller, Isle Of Jura’s Bahrain Triple Crown, and a new Dubai satellite yard opening this winter.

On the opposite side, Kylian Mbappe is the danger man for Real Madrid, and his importance has only increased with Vinicius Junior suspended this weekend.

The Frenchman was on the scoresheet against Leipzig midweek, and it could have easily been a brace, if Arda Guler didn’t tap in from close range. 

Mbappe has scored 12 goals in 12 games this season, with four of those in his last three starts alone.

He looks well set to extend his impressive form, and his record against Barcelona is impressive.

Mbappe has scored seven goals in five starts against the Catalans, landing this selection in all of those.

With his pace in behind, he has the potential to exploit the Barca high line.

After being rested midweek, Aurelien Tchouameni is expected to return to the starting XI this weekend against Barcelona.

The Frenchman has only been fouled twice in his five starts this season, averaging just 0.41 fouls drawn per 90, but this is a very different kind of fixture. 

When these sides last met, Real Madrid were fouled 18 times, and Tchouameni landed this selection by accounting for two of those.

In fact, his figures rise steeply against Barcelona to 1.26 fouls drawn per 90 in his 11 starts.

He has landed this selection in three of his last five starts against Barcelona, which makes this price look good value.

Ibrahima Konate is another Real Madrid player who was afforded a rest by Jose Mourinho midweek, as he remained an unused substitute.

The former Liverpool man has been a regular starter at the back this season, and he is averaging 1.3 fouls per 90.

Konate has been consistent when it comes to recording fouls, with at least one to his name in each of his last nine successive starts.

He has also been booked in four of those, highlighting how he does at times get caught out of position, and forced into committing cynical fouls. 

This will be Konate’s first El Clasico, and he will have to deal with the likes of Ferran Torres, Raphina and Yamal up front.

It’s a tough defensive assignment for the Frenchman.

Xavi Espart also looks set for his first El Clasico start this weekend, after the 19-year-old scored against PSG midweek.

Espart has burst onto the scene for Barca this campaign, and has quickly emerged as the main starter at left back.

He has started eight games under Hansi Flick so far, and is averaging 1.82 fouls per 90 across all competitions.

Espart has perhaps been lucky to only escape with one booking so far, but he is a player who likes to be aggressive in his tackles. 

Espart has made it through the La Masia academy, and has been at the club for 11 years. If he starts at the back, it will be a big occasion for the Spaniard, and he should be fired up.

Philadelphia have recovered from a sluggish start to the campaign and enter this game having avoided defeat in each of their last 12 matches - winning nine of these games and scoring at least twice in 11 of them.

They’ve only lost three of their 15 home games this term, with the majority of their poor results coming in the early period of the campaign. Cavan Sullivan has been a particular standout, registering 14 goal contributions across just 20 starts in the MLS this term.

New England sit above Philadelphia in the Eastern Conference, but the majority of their convincing performances came in the early parts of the season. They’ve lost 3-0 twice across their last five matches, and have conceded 25 goals across their 15 away assignments this term.

Philadelphia also have an excellent historical head to head record against New England, winning each of the last five clashes as the home side. The most recent win was a 1-0 triumph in September last year, where New England were limited to an xG of 0.44.

Orlando have been one of the most chaotic sides in the MLS this term, seeing BTTS in 70% of their 30 matches this season.

They’ve conceded more goals than any other side in the Eastern Conference (70), but still sit in a playoff spot - suggesting that Orlando are more than comfortable in high scoring matches.

Their 15 home games in the MLS have produced 50 goals (3.33 per game), yet they’ve still managed to win nine of these games. Only two sides in the Eastern Conference have picked up more points at home than Orlando, so it clearly works for them.

New York have failed to win any of their last five matches, but will feel confident of scoring against the worst defence in the league having still managed to score in three of those matches. 

Four of the last five head to head meetings between these sides has seen BTTS, with the exception of New York’s 5-0 win over Orlando last time out - though Orlando were reduced to 10 men after just 18 minutes of that clash.

It’s getting to a crucial stage in the season for Real Salt Lake, who sit three points outside of the playoff spots in the Western Conference and need to find form soon having won just two of their last 15 matches.

Despite this rocky form, Real Salt Lake have still managed to maintain a decent scoring power - scoring in 80% of their matches this season. They’ve netted 28 goals across their 15 home games, working out to an average of 1.86 goals per game.

St Louis have done very well to rival Vancouver Whitecaps in the Western Conference this term, but their away games have been very open. They’ve seen 44 goals across their 15 away assignments (2.93 per game).

Each of the last six head to head meetings between these sides has seen BTTS. With Real Salt Lake needing to pick up points to make the playoffs, and St Louis seeing a very high volume of goals on the road - BTTS looks likely.

Only one side has picked up more points at home than Colorado in the Western Conference this term, and I think they can get on the scoresheet against a Vancouver outfit who boast the best away record of any side in the division.

Vancouver have been the team to watch in the Western Conference for some time, they’ve netted 28 goals across their 15 away assignments - the second highest tally of any side in the Western Conference, behind Dallas (29).

Colorado have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, notably failing to win any of these games. They’ve scored twice in three of those matches, suggesting that their scoring power isn’t really the issue.

These sides met back in April, with BTTS landing on that occasion as Vancouver came away 3-1 winners over Colorado at home. That game saw both sides register an xG in excess of 1.0 (3.79-1.65). 

Hansi Flick’s men were dealt their first defeat of the season in midweek, as they lost 4-2 against PSG.

It was always going to be a tough matchup for the Catalans at the Parc-des-Princes, and they will hope to bounce back at the Nou Camp this weekend.

Barcelona currently have the flawless record of nine wins from nine in the league, putting them six points above Real Madrid, and the Catalans have scored 39 goals in their nine league matches.

Real Madrid are quite a bit behind with 23 goals to their name, but they come into this clash in a rich vein of form.

They beat RB Leipzig 4-1 on Wednesday night, meaning they have now scored 11 goals in their last three games alone.

This is a clash between two of the strongest attacking units in Europe, making goals a market to target.

Dani Olmo was substituted after 27 minutes with an injury midweek, which means Fermin Lopez should get the nod to start here.

The 23-year-old committed two fouls against PSG despite coming off the bench, and he was fortunate to escape a booking in the end.

Fermin is averaging 1.92 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has landed this selection in each of his last three starts. 

The Spaniard has a notable foul record against Real Madrid. Fermin has made nine El Clasico appearances in his career, with four of those off the bench.

Still, he is averaging 3.05 fouls per 90, and has been carded in four of those.

Fermin plays with an added intensity in this derby, and the La Masia graduate is one to keep an eye on here.

He is likely to find duels against Jude Bellingham in midfield.

The Englishman has been a magnet for drawing fouls this season, averaging 3.2 fouls drawn per 90 which is the highest in the Real Madrid squad.

He has landed this selection in 10 of his 12 appearances in total. 

Bellingham is not short of El Clasico appearances, with 10 starts against the Catalans, and he has landed this bet in every single game.

He is averaging 2.72 fouls drawn per 90 against Barcelona, and he was fouled five times when these sides last met.

Lamine Yamal didn’t quite put in his best performance midweek against PSG, but the winger still managed to find the back of the net as Barcelona were beaten 4-2.

Yamal is so difficult to keep out of the game, and this looks like a better matchup for him going forward against Real Madrid. 

The 19-year-old has already hit double digits for goals and assists this season, with 10 goals and 10 assists to his name in just 12 appearances across all competitions.

He is on track to improve on his numbers of 24 goals and 17 assists in the previous campaign, which shows how he is only getting better.

Whether it’s going down the line to cross, or cutting inside onto his stronger left foot to shoot, Yamal is so difficult to contain.

Brighton have been the most exciting team to watch in the Premier League so far this season, scoring more goals than any other side in the division across their opening seven matches (23 - 3.29 per game).

Fabian Hurzeler’s side have seen 3+ goals in five of these games, covering this line on their own on four of those occasions. They also saw 3+ goals in their EFL Cup victory over United, as well as their opening game of the Conference League - beating Kauno 4-0.

Liverpool have been playing some really chaotic, but entertaining, football under Iraola so far. They’ve had to come from behind in each of their last two matches, seeing 3+ goals in each of their last four matches.

Liverpool have conceded 2+ goals in three of these matches, so there should be opportunities for Brighton to extend their impressive scoring record at the start of this season. 

It’s Liverpool who come in as pre-match favourites, but there really isn’t much to split the two sides. As it stands, Brighton are actually above Liverpool by four points.

The Seagulls have seen an average of 10.7 corners per game in the Premier League this season, with 5.7 corners for, and 5.0 against. This bet has landed in five of their seven league games overall, with the only misses coming against Aston Villa in gameweek one, and Coventry. However, those games finished 4-0 and 5-0 respectively - Liverpool should be a lot more competitive. 

The Reds are averaging 10.4 corners per game this season, rising to 11.2 when playing at home, which shows how chances have also been available at both ends for them this campaign.

Andoni Iraola was handed a boost midweek as Cody Gakpo was fit enough to start. The Dutchman played the full 90 out on the left wing, and he landed this selection as one of his three efforts hit the target. With Alexander Isak and Hugo Ekitike still out, Gakpo is likely to be pushed into a centre forward role this weekend, which naturally makes his shot prices appeal. 

Gakpo has a decent record against Brighton, and he should be looking forward to this matchup. He has scored three goals in his last five starts against the Seagulls, averaging 2.46 shots per 90 in that time. Gakpo started as Liverpool’s striker when these sides last met, and he recorded two shots with one on target.

Charalampos Kostoulas was afforded a rest midweek, and it’s not a surprise that Brighton failed to score in his absence.

The Greek international has been in excellent form to start the campaign, and he already has five goals to his name in eight starts across all competitions. The 19-year-old is averaging 4.23 shots per 90 this season, and he has landed this selection against the likes of Chelsea, Arsenal and Man United. 

This is a tough upcoming matchup at Anfield, but Kostoulas thrives when there is space in behind, and Liverpool haven’t looked particularly convincing defensively this term. In fact, they have conceded ten goals in their last four matches across all competitions.

Liverpool secured a 2-1 win against Brentford last weekend, as the hosts finished the game with nine men. Both starting midfielders Yehor Yarmoliuk and Vitaly Janelt were dismissed by the referee, and Pascal Gross will be the one starting in defensive midfield this weekend.

The German international is averaging 1.91 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season, landing this selection in all seven starts. That includes registering multiple infringements in four of those, and three yellow cards. 

He has been a lot more aggressive in his approach this campaign, and Liverpool are likely to keep him busy in midfield. The Reds are averaging 10.5 fouls drawn per game at Anfield this season.

After a positive start to the campaign for Matthias Jaissle, Newcastle have struggled in recent weeks, with defensive weaknesses exposed. In fact, their last two away matches both ended in 4-1 defeats - first against Leeds, then against Coventry. 

Crystal Palace haven’t been much better at the back, and they were thrashed by rivals Brighton last weekend - it finished 5-0 in the Amex, and this selection landed in the opening ten minutes. Over 2.5 goals also landed against Besiktas midweek, as it finished 2-2 in Istanbul. This is a clash between two shaky defensive units, which naturally makes goals a target.

Crystal Palace have won two Premier League matches this season, and neither was particularly convincing. It finished 3-2 at Craven Cottage in September, but the hosts racked up 25 shots worth 3.1 xG, so were fortunate to only score once.

Then recently against Nottingham Forest, Palace conceded 24 shots worth 3.3 xG - both Forest and Fulham cleared this line with ease, recording seven and eight corners, respectively. 

Newcastle have been adept at getting to the byline this season, and they are averaging 5.9 corners per game across all competitions. They will benefit from having the full week to prepare for this fixture, as well.

Harvey Barnes has adopted a much greater role in the final third for Newcastle this season, and he is one to keep an eye on this weekend. Barnes is averaging 2.59 shots per 90 across all competitions, and he has recorded multiple shots in each of his last six straight starts. 

Barnes has shown a greater willingness this season to cut inside rather than stay wide - Lewis Hall is typically the one who keeps width. Because of that, Barnes has been able to pick up much more promising positions in the opposition box, and there should be plenty of chances coming his way at Selhurst Park.

Barnes is also averaging 1.88 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and he was fouled three times by Aston Villa last weekend. He is a strong carrier of the ball, who likes to try and beat his marker. Hall, who plays just behind Barnes at left back, is also averaging 1.44 fouls drawn per 90, and he has won at least one free-kick in each of his last eight starts. 

Both of those players will occupy a similar zone of the pitch as Anan Khalaili this weekend, and the Israeli international is likely to have his hands full on the defensive front. Khalaili has committed a foul in six of his seven Premier League appearances since moving to Selhurst Park over the summer.

Jaissle likes his side to be front-footed in their approach, asking his fullbacks to press forward and join the attacks at every opportunity. At times, that can leave Newcastle stretched, particularly in midfield. Nico Gonzalez has been busy since completing his move from Man City, and he has landed this selection in all five starts for the Magpies. 

Not only that, but Gonzalez ranks fifth out of all Premier League players for total fouls this season, despite only playing 340 minutes of football. He is incredibly aggressive in his duels in the middle of the park, always looking to close opponents down and press intensely, which bodes well for this selection.

NEC Nijmegen have seen BTTS land in every home game this season, and Groningen have the exact same record away from home. That makes this one of Sunday's best games for goals.

Nijmegen still haven't managed a single clean sheet in the league, even against teams with some of the weakest attacks, like PEC Zwolle and Telstar.

Going forward, though, they're averaging 18 shots and 1.97 xG per home game.

It's a similar story for Groningen. They've scored in every league game so far, but they're also giving up an average of 18 shots and 2.34 xGA away from home.

Their last two games have been full of goals too. They won 5-1 away at Excelsior before losing 5-2 at home to Ajax.

With both teams regularly involved in high-scoring games and neither looking too solid at the back, BTTS looks like a great option here.

This will be a massive test for Feyenoord as they try to prise the Eredivisie title away from PSV, who have been crowned champions in each of the last two seasons.

Feyenoord have avoided defeat in all of their nine games in the Eredivisie this term, winning seven of them and scoring more goals than any other side in the division (31 - 3.44 per game).

They’ve also won all five of their away matches, netting 20 goals in the process. Their preparation for this potential six pointer in the title race couldn’t be better, but PSV will be just as motivated to ensure they don’t lose more ground in the fight for the Eredivisie title.

PSV have scored 13 goals across their four games in the Eredivisie this term, but have only managed to keep a clean sheet in one of these matches. In fact, PSV have only kept one shutout all season - most recently conceding twice and seeing BTTS against a newly promoted Den Haag side. 

A lot of Manchester United's problems have come at the back. They've conceded in all seven Premier League games and even let in four against Como in their last Champions League match.

Going forward, though, they've been creating plenty of chances, averaging 19 shots per game, with BTTS landing in five of their seven league matches.

Bournemouth have also seen BTTS land in all three away games so far, against Chelsea, Newcastle and Manchester City.

They've had a really tough time defensively on the road, conceding nine of their 13 goals away from home.

The good news for Bournemouth is that Marcus Tavernier, who's scored four goals, and Evanilson, the team's top assist provider, are both available.

Both meetings between these teams last season saw BTTS land, with at least 30 shots in each game. There's plenty of reason to expect another action-packed match here.

Every Hoffenheim game in the Bundesliga this season has seen both teams score, and it's been exactly the same story in Leverkusen's away games.

Hoffenheim have scored at least twice in all three home games, even in their defeat to Dortmund, who have the best defence in the league.

Leverkusen, meanwhile, have the second-best attack in the Bundesliga with 16 goals and have scored at least twice in every league game.

Patrik Schick has scored in all six league games so far and will be a big threat to a Hoffenheim defence that hasn't kept a single clean sheet in the league.

Leverkusen's away record makes BTTS look even better. They've conceded at least twice in all three games on the road, giving up at least five shots on target each time.

Freiburg aren't in the top three by accident. They've scored in all six Bundesliga games this season, including 11 goals in just three home matches.

That's not great news for Bayern, who've conceded in their last four games, including in the Champions League.

Five of the eight goals Bayern have conceded in their last four games have come away from home, including two in a 2-2 draw against Augsburg.

Bayern have the best attack in the Bundesliga and are averaging 3.20 xG, but Freiburg have some great attacking numbers too, with 16 shots and 2.10 xG per home game.

With some key players back, there's even more reason to think we'll see goals at both ends.

Yuito Suzuki, Freiburg's top scorer with four goals, is back from suspension. Michael Olise is also available again after missing Bayern's Champions League game through suspension, and he's already been involved in seven league goals.

Barcelona have been brilliant going forward this season, scoring at least twice in every game, including in the Champions League.

They've been even better at home, where they're averaging a massive 4.40 goals, 25 shots and nine shots on target per game.

Real Madrid haven't kept a single clean sheet away from home this season, even conceding three in their Champions League win over Roma.

The good news for Madrid is that Barcelona haven't looked too solid at the back either. They've conceded in seven of their last eight games, including four against PSG in midweek.

Madrid have been dangerous away from home, averaging 2.09 xG and 17 shots per game, and they've already managed to score against strong defences like Atlético Madrid's.

With top scorers Yamal and Mbappé both confirmed to play, there's even more reason to fancy BTTS when the two best attacks in La Liga face each other.

I backed Ratajski in his opening round game against Dave Chisnall, but that was more about the weaknesses of Chisnall than it was the strength of Ratajski - who came through a 6-2 winner, despite only averaging 91.21.

That standard simply won’t be enough against Kevin Doets, who is a rising star and dispatched the most successful ever player on the European Tour and his personal idol in Van Gerwen in the opening round, averaging 97.14 and taking out 2+ 100+ checkouts, including a wonderful 132 finish.

Doets has won both of the meetings between the pair this year, coming away a 6-5 winner in both clashes. The extended format suits Doets more than Ratajski for me here, Doets’ scoring and 180 hitting has been incredible this year - and his effortless throw makes him a hard man to oppose in this one.

Jonny Clayton will see this as a massive opportunity.

He’s quite clearly the best player of the four in this quarter, with the winner set to take on either Martin Schindler or Jermaine Wattimena.

Clayton comfortably dispatched Niko Springer in the opening round, which looked routine on paper but Clayton had to manage the crowd being against him and scored well enough to account for some iffy finishing (26%), which is likely to be an anomaly.

Rock was impressive in beating Chris Dobey, but I’ve seen this from Rock so many times before. He struggles to replicate those kinds of massive averages and convincing performances. 

Clayton has won the last two meetings between the pair, and I think his experience is what brings him through here having been a very consistent performer on TV this year - which can’t be said for Josh Rock. 

We’re taking Clayton on the slight handicap here, accounting for a scenario where there is a last leg decider and Clayton just misses out.

After a flying start to life in the Premier League, the Tigers have stuttered in recent weeks, and have failed to win any of their last six across all competitions. Despite the narrow 1-0 scoreline against Fulham last time out, Hull were comprehensively beaten. They managed just five shots worth 0.16 xG, while the hosts accrued 18 shots and four big chances worth 1.38 xG. 

By contrast, Brentford’s performances have been much more encouraging, despite their loss against Liverpool. They currently sit sixth in the Premier League standings, having pulled off some notable results such as a 3-0 win over Spurs, and another 3-0 victory against Chelsea.

This is a clash between two of the most ill-disciplined sides in the Premier League this season, so cards are naturally a target. Brentford rank top of the charts for total cards accrued this campaign, with 20 yellow cards and three reds. Hull rank second.

The Tigers have been carded at least twice in all seven of their league matches this campaign, averaging 3.14 cards per game. Meanwhile, Brentford were shown two red cards against Liverpool last time out, in addition to four yellows. This selection has landed in five of their last six Premier League games. Robert Jones is the designated referee here, and he is likely to have his work cut out.

On the opposite side, Mohamed Belloumi is the danger man for Hull. He has really come into his element this campaign, and Belloumi already has three league goals to his name. For context, the Algerian international managed just two goals in 22 Championship appearances last season. 

Belloumi is averaging 3.15 shots per 90 in the league which is comfortably the highest of any regular starter in the Hull squad, and he has landed this selection in six of his seven appearances overall. Over half of his efforts have come from outside the box, which shows how he isn’t short of confidence to try his luck from distance, which bodes well for this selection.

Brentford will be missing two key players in midfield, but as some consolation, Kevin Schade looks set to be available again after concerns of a shoulder injury.

The winger was taken off early against Aston Villa, but he was fit enough to feature in the second-half last weekend. Schade has started the new season in excellent form, and he already has three league goals under his belt. Interestingly, they have all come when playing away. 

The German international is averaging 2.81 shots per 90 this season, with 41% of those efforts hitting the target, and this looks like a favourable matchup to target him again.

It was Yehor Yarmoliuk and Vitaly Janelt who were sent off for the Bees - both regular starters in midfield. That leaves Keith Andrews with a bit of a selection headache for this fixture, but Mamadou Sangare is likely to return to the starting eleven alongside Mathias Jensen. 

The Mali international is averaging 2.44 fouls per 90 since arriving in the Premier League, landing this selection in three of his four starts. He has been used sporadically by Keith Andrews so far, but this is a real opportunity for him to try and lock down a regular starting spot. Sangare is a player who likes to be aggressive in his tackles and win the ball back quickly - he had an average of 1.48 fouls per 90 for Lens last season, which makes this price appeal.

The Ravens may be 4-2 on the season, but they have faced some pretty straightforward opposition, namely the Colts, Saints, Cowboys, Titans, Falcons, and Browns.

They come into this game off the back of a 13-10 defeat to Cleveland last Sunday. The Bengals - who beat the Dolphins 24-31 in Week 5 - represent a step up in class, while they will also be fresher, coming into this game off a bye.

Doubts also persist over whether Lamar Jackson will play having missed the last 2 games, but even if he does, he tends to struggle when coming back from injury. The Ravens (26.0 PPG) and Bengals (25.6 PPG) are evenly-matched offensively, and the same is true defensively (Ravens 22.0 OPP PPG, Bengals 21.8 OPP PPG).

With doubts over Jackson, the Bengals' bye-week, and Cincinnati being the toughest opposition Baltimore has faced, I'm liking the +1.5 on the Bengals.

The Titans' offense is joint-worst in the NFL alongside the Miami Dolphins, with both sides scoring an average of just 14.0 PPG this season. Cleveland, meanwhile, isn't much better. They sit joint-28th with Philadelphia with just 17.7 PPG. Combined, this is a total of 31.7 PPG, 6.8 under this line. 

Defensively, both sides are in the top-half of the standings, with Cleveland joint-5th with the Seahawks and the Jets with an average of 20.3 OPP PPG. Tennessee sits 13th with an average of 21.5 OPP PPG. 

Ultimately, the two poor offenses should keep this game below this total - in addition to their poor scoring, the Titans are also rank bottom in yards per game with just 236.3. They only had 186.0 vs. the Colts last time out. Cleveland ranks 4th-bottom in offensive yards per game with 267.5, with just 237.0 last time out vs. Baltimore.

Tampa Bay's offense has struggled this season - they sit 25th in the NFL with an average of 19.8 PPG. In contrast, Carolina sits 4th, averaging 29.2 PPG. There are question marks over the fitness of Baker Mayfield, but they haven't formed particularly well both with and without him.

Defensively, Tampa Bay and Carolina are quite similar, with the Bucs having an OPP PPG of 23.0 (17th in the NFL) and the Panthers 24.6 (21st).

The Panthers' Bryce Young is having his strongest-ever season, leading the NFL in passing yards per game (309.8). He is 7th in the NFL in passing yards overall (1,549) and faces a Tampa Bay side that ranks 19th in opponent passing yards per game (224.0). This is a clear weakness that Young can exploit - go with the Panthers.

This is a battle between 2 sides with losing records - Dolphins 0-5 and Jets 2-4 - and some of the weakest offenses in the NFL.

The Dolphins have the joint-worst offense in the NFL with the Tennessee Titans, having scored just 14.0 PPG, while the Jets rank 27th with 18.7 PPG. Combined, this is 32.7, 6.8 below this line. 

The Dolphins have scored 13 points or fewer in 4/5 games this season, with 2/L3 Dolphins games having fewer than 39.5 points.

Meanwhile, 4/6 Jets games this season have had under 39.5 points.

Conversely, the Jets have the joint-5th-strongest scoring defense in the NFL alongside Cleveland and Seattle, having conceded an average of 20.3 OPP PPG. Miami ranks 24th on 26.4 OPP PPG - not great, but not the worst in the NFL either. 

The Jets rank 4th-best in passing defense this season with 185.0 yards allowed per game. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have the 2nd-worst passing offense with just 153.6 passing yards per game. The rush could be where Miami succeeds, but it's unlikely to be enough to boost their scoring significantly.

While I expect Celtic to emerge from Easter Road victorious on Sunday, I think Hibs can get on the scoresheet.

Celtic have looked shaky at the back throughout the campaign, failing to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their opening nine league games, conceding in away wins over the likes of Kilmarnock and St Mirren. 

While the Hoops’ 7-1 win over Hearts last weekend was emphatic, conceding in such a one-sided victory was another reminder that they remain prone to lapses in concentration.

What’s more, both teams have scored in all three of Celtic’s Europa League matches this season, the most recent of which was Thursday night’s 2-1 loss to Celta Vigo.

On top of that, both teams have scored in 7 of Hibs’ 9 league games this term, including 4 of their 5 fixtures at Easter Road, making goals at both ends worthy of support.

Celtic look well placed to make it three wins from three in the Scottish Premiership when they visit Hibernian on Sunday. 

The teams come into this clash at opposite ends of the table, with Celtic top and Hibs bottom.

Hibs have struggled to get going this season and suffered another setback last Saturday, when they slumped to a 2-1 loss at home to Falkirk.

That was Marink Reedijk’s second defeat since taking charge, following a 1-0 loss away to Dundee United a week earlier.

The capital club’s home form is particularly alarming, with the defeat to Falkirk marking their fourth loss in 5 league games at Easter Road this season. 

Celtic have won all four of their Scottish Premiership away games this season, strengthening the case for another victory in the capital.

It’s difficult to look past Camilo Duran in the To Score or Assist market.

While Celtic were widely criticised for their summer transfer business, the capture of Duran is looking like a shrewd one

The Colombian forward has been one of the Scottish Premiership’s standout performers this season, scoring 5 goals and providing 5 assists in nine appearances. 

He has also netted 4 times across his seven outings for Celtic in other competitions this term. 

As such, Duran should relish the chance to face a Hibs side that have looked defensively suspect throughout the campaign. 

Indeed, the Hibees are the only side in the Scottish top flight yet to keep a clean sheet after 9 matches, while they have conceded multiple goals in three of their four home defeats.

Duran therefore looks the prime candidate to exploit the hosts’ defensive frailties.

The Hibs ace is a real all-action midfielder who likes to make late runs into the box, as well as trying his luck from distance.

That is reflected in his average of 2.49 shots per game in the Scottish Premiership this season.

A closer look at the numbers shows Mulligan has had at least 1 shot in all but one of his nine top-flight appearances this term, firing off multiple efforts in 4 of Hibs’ 5 home matches.

Given Celtic are likely to take the game to Hibs on Sunday, Mulligan should find space to get a shot away. 

What’s more, the Hoops could be feeling the effects of Thursday night’s Europa League exertions, adding to the appeal of backing Mulligan to let fly at least once. 

Marcus Tavernier has been a consistent performer for Bournemouth again so far this season, after impressing in the second half of last campaign.

He’s had more shots on target than any other Bournemouth player (10 - 1.56 per 90), with only two Bournemouth players having more shots than the winger so far this term in the Premier League.

This shot record has led to four goals for Tavernier, who also notably found the back of the net in Bournemouth’s clash against Man City earlier in the campaign.

Tavernier is already within three goals of his total goal output in the Premier League last term. He averaged 0.79 shots on target per 90 across his 31 starts in the top flight, showing a slight improvement on those numbers in the early parts of this season.

Tavernier caused United real problems in this fixture last season, registering a goal and an assist in a man of the match performance. He had four shots in total during that game, seeing three of those efforts find the target.

Bryan Mbeumo has been playing as a striker for United in the absence of Benjamin Sesko, who is still expected to be sidelined for this encounter.

Mbeumo is an excellent finisher, and showed how clever he can be with his movement for his goal against Leeds last weekend - getting on the end of a great cross from Tielemans.

Mbeumo has found the target in all seven of his Premier League matches this season, finding the target on multiple occasions in each of his last two games - coinciding with his move to United’s number nine.

No United player has had more shots on target than Mbeumo (10) in the Premier League this season, and the Cameroon international took four shots in this fixture last season with two of those efforts finding the target.

Rayan hasn’t quite shown the form he displayed in the second half of last season, with the winger yet to register a goal contribution in the Premier League - but he has shown consistency when it comes to winning fouls.

Rayan has won eight fouls across his seven starts in the Premier League (1.17 per 90), winning a foul in each of his last four matches. He’s won multiple fouls in three of these games, and will be aware of the issues that United are facing at fullback at the moment.

His direct opponent is likely to be Diogo Dalot, who is filling in at left back in the absence of Shaw and Dorgu. Dalot likes to get forward, and I think he will be caught out a few times by Rayan. No United player has committed more fouls than Dalot in the Premier League (7 - 1.34 per 90). 

I feel for Senne Lammens, in any other team he’d be looked at as one of the most capable keepers in the league, but United’s awful defensive structure is leaving him overexposed and having to make multiple saves in each game.

Lammens has had to make 2+ saves in six of his seven matches in the Premier League this season, with the exception of the Manchester derby - which was mainly due to the fact that City were reduced to 10 men. 

Lammens has had to make 3+ saves in four of these games, including being called into action six times against Fulham just before the international break. Lammens was forced into making 3+ saves in both league meetings with Bournemouth last season, having to make five saves at Old Trafford.

A lot of Manchester United's problems have come at the back. They've conceded in all seven Premier League games and even let in four against Como in their last Champions League match.

Going forward, though, they've been creating plenty of chances, averaging 19 shots per game, with BTTS landing in five of their seven league matches.

Bournemouth have also seen BTTS land in all three away games so far, against Chelsea, Newcastle and Manchester City.

They've had a really tough time defensively on the road, conceding nine of their 13 goals away from home.

The good news for Bournemouth is that Marcus Tavernier, who's scored four goals, and Evanilson, the team's top assist provider, are both available.

Both meetings between these teams last season saw BTTS land, with at least 30 shots in each game. There's plenty of reason to expect another action-packed match here.

Rodgers has passed for over 229.5 yards in all of his last 4 games, averaging 269.8 passing yards during this period. He is averaging 247.8 yards per game on the season, with 1,487 passing yards in total for 12 TDs.

These stats suggest his 2nd season with the Steelers is going better than his 1st, and he could profit against a Saints side whose passing defense ranks 25th in the NFL with an opponent passing yards per game of 239.7.

This leaps to an average of 267.7 over the Saints' last 3 games. The Saints also struggle to pressure QBs, which should give Rodgers plenty of time to pick his targets.

Warren is averaging 76.7 rushing yards per game this season, 13.2 over this line. This makes 2026 the best campaign of his career so far on this metric.

He has also rushed for Over 63.5 yards in 3/L4 games - 127 vs. Cincinnati in Week 3, 93 vs. Cleveland in Week 4 and 101 vs. Indianapolis in Week 5. This week, he faces a Saints side with a weaker rushing defense than all of them - New Orleans sits 30th in the NFL with an average of 138.0 opponent rushing yards per game.

They are averaging 147.3 opponent rushing yards per game in their last 3 games. New Orleans ranks 24th in opponent rushing attempts per game (28.8, rising to 30.3 over their last 3 games) and will be weakened by the absence of linebacker Kaden Elliss. This suggests Warren should get plenty of opportunity to surpass this total.

Dowdle had his most impressive display of the season last time out in the Steelers' victory over Tampa Bay, rushing for 40 yards from 7 attempts, averaging 5.7 yards per carry with a breakaway percentage of 37.5%.

As previously discussed, he faces a Saints side that ranks 24th in the NFL on opponent rushing attempts per game (28.8) and 30th in the NFL on opponent rushing yards per game (138.0).

At 4.8 opponent yards per rush attempt, the Saints rank 28th on this metric too. Dowdle should be able to capitalize.

Kamara has enjoyed over 12.5 receiving yards in 2/L3 games, with 35 against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4 and 35 against the New York Giants last week.

He is averaging 15.2 receiving yards per game this season, 2.7 over this line. He is facing a Pittsburgh side that ranks 7th in opponent passing yards per game (204.3), but the Saints are -3.5-point underdogs which suggests their focus is likely to be on the passing game.

The Saints are the 2nd most efficient team in the red-zone, scoring a TD on 84.21% of their drives. Kamara has been key to this efficiency. This should allow Kamara to get over this rather modest line, should he feature.

Fresh from catching the game-winning touchdown against the Buccaneers last week, it is clear that Aaron Rodgers trusts the rookie WR.

He received for 87 yards in that game, with 11 receptions from 12 targets, while in Week 5 vs. the Colts he received for 80 yards with 6 receptions from 9 targets. With Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson both on injured reserve, Bernard has a chance to step up again against a New Orleans passing defense that ranks 25th in the NFL with an average of 239.7 opponent passing yards per game.

It would not be a surprise if Bernard scored again too, considering New Orleans is conceding 3.5 opponent TDs per game, the 3rd-worst record in the league alongside Buffalo.

Marcus Thuram has scored in all three of his home games in Serie A this season, and only Lautaro Martínez has taken more shots for Inter.

Thuram is averaging 4.15 shots and 1.54 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Inter have won all four of their home league games so far, scoring at least three goals in every single one.

Inter have the best attack in Serie A, and they're now facing Fiorentina, who have the worst defence in the league, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game.

Fiorentina are coming off a 3-1 home defeat to Como, where they gave up 16 shots, eight of them on target.

With Fiorentina struggling so much at the back and Thuram getting so many chances, there's a good chance he could find the net again this Sunday.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored four goals already in the Premier League this season, building on the 14 Premier League goals he netted last season.

Calvert-Lewin has always been capable of performing at this level, it’s just that injuries have held him back prior to joining Leeds - but he looks to have come through the worst of those issues and hasn’t missed multiple games for some time.

Calvert-Lewin has had a shot on target in five of his seven Premier League appearances this season, scoring against United last time out. No Leeds player has had more shots than Calvert-Lewin this season (14 - 2.10 per 90), with an impressive 57% of these attempts finding the target. 

As we go into gameweek eight of the Premier League, no player has committed more fouls than Dominic Calvert-Lewis so far.

The Leeds striker has landed this bet in five of his seven starts, averaging 2.25 fouls per 90. Calvert-Lewin has approached this season with an increased aggression, and he finds himself in a rich vein of form. Leeds look to play direct to their centre forward as often as possible, which gives Calvert-Lewin plenty of aerial duels to contest. 

The former Everton man is always looking to make life difficult for opposing centre backs, and he should find duels against Nordi Mukiele, who has been fouled in five of his last six starts, and Reinildo who is averaging 1.51 fouls drawn per 90 this season.

Sunderland have struggled for consistency this season, but Le Fee has been a standout performer again and has drawn 14 fouls across his seven starts in the Premier League (2.07 per 90).

Le Fee has been fouled at least once in all seven of his Premier League matches this term, drawing multiple fouls in four of these games.

He was fouled four times against Bournemouth last time out, which does inflate his average - but also shows just how effective Le Fee can be at winning fouls when against the right opponent. 

Le Fee will be up against a Leeds side that play with three players in midfield in Farke’s 3-4-3 system. I’m particularly interested in his duels with Anton Stach here, the Leeds man has an obvious physical advantage over Le Fee - but the Frenchman can be clever in this battle to win fouls.

Stach has committed 14 fouls across his seven starts in the Premier League this term (2.01 per 90), and is the shortest player with most books to commit a foul here. 

I’m not surprised that Sunderland are struggling this season.

European football was always going to be a tough ask for a side that just earned promotion to the top flight last year, and Le Bris is finding it difficult to maintain that balance between their European assignments and Premier League matches.

Sunderland have only managed to win one of their opening seven Premier League matches, with that win coming against Fulham in their first home game of the season.

They’re not quite as resilient at the Stadium of Light as they were last season, losing the two home games since that victory over Fulham and only scoring one goal across these matches.

Leeds are flying at the moment, losing just one of their opening seven Premier League matches. They’ve only lost one of their three away trips - which was a defeat against Arsenal, where they were actually quite unlucky not to come away with at least a point.

Yoane Wissa was unfortunate not to land this selection last weekend, as he accounted for seven of Newcastle’s 16 efforts at St James’ Park. He is averaging 2.69 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, but there is reason to believe that figure will rise this weekend, given how poor Palace have been at the back. 

The Eagles conceded five goals last weekend against Brighton, with three of those in the first ten minutes alone. Their opponents are averaging 16.9 shots per game this season, with over a third of those hitting the target. Those numbers should give Newcastle confidence as they head to Selhurst Park this weekend.

After a really positive start to the season, we haven’t seen much from Mamadou Sangare in recent weeks, as his last three Premier League appearances have come from the bench. However, the Mali international should get an opportunity to start this weekend, with Yehor Yarmoliuk and Vitaly Janelt both suspended. 

Sangare has recorded six shots in the league this season, averaging 1.33 shots per 90. He has landed this selection in three out of four starts overall. The midfielder likes to be positive in his play, and there should be plenty of opportunities for Brentford in the final third this weekend. Hull conceded 18 shots against Fulham last time out in what was a one-sided contest.

Yasin Ayari has recorded at least two shots in all six of his Premier League starts this season, and he has scored two goals. That includes four shots against Crystal Palace last time out, with two of those on target and one finding the back of the net. Ayari even landed this selection against Aston Villa in gameweek one, and Arsenal at the Amex Stadium in September. 

He has proven that he can cause problems in the final third, even in tougher matchups. Ayari started the season in a defensive midfield role, but he has been playing more advanced recently. The Swedish international is always looking to arrive in the box late to get on the end of crosses, while he does also have an eye for goal from distance.

Bournemouth were in dreamland midweek, as they cruised past European giants AC Milan in the Europa League midweek. The Cherries went 2-0 up in the first half alone, and Mike Maignan was shown a red card for violent conduct. Evanilson played a key role in that game, as it was his header which ultimately led to Bournemouth being awarded their first penalty. The Brazilian has been in excellent form in recent weeks, which makes him a target. 

Man United have failed to win any of their last seven matches across all competitions, and their recent 4-1 defeat against Como was perhaps the worst of the lot. It’s a great time to face Michael Carrick’s men at the moment, and Evanilson looks primed to exploit that shaky backline.

Sunderland are another side lacking confidence at the moment, as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Lech Poznan midweek.

Nordi Mukiele had three shots in that game before being replaced after 63 minutes, and one of his efforts hit the target. The defender is averaging 1.99 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, rising to 2.75 when playing at home. He has recorded 11 shots in his last three starts at the Stadium of Light, which shows just how involved he is in the final third. 

Leeds are conceding an average of 13.8 shots per game on their travels this season, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Mukiele to get forward into the box this weekend. 

Justin Kluivert scored against Milan during the week as Bournemouth secured one of the biggest results in their history, beating AC Milan 3-0 in the Europa League.

Kluivert was impressive throughout the game, and converted his penalty from the two shots he had in total - as well as creating three chances. He’s quite trigger happy, taking 13 shots across just four starts (3.59 per 90), with six of these efforts finding the target (1.66 per 90).

Kluivert has had a shot on target in three of his five Premier League appearances this term, managing multiple shots on target against Brentford and Everton. His role on penalties and willingness to shoot from almost anywhere, makes him a decent player to back for an effort on target. 

Carlos Baleba came on in the second half of United’s 4-1 defer to Como during the week and was booked for a foul the referee played advantage on just six minutes after entering the pitch.

Baleba isn’t going to magically solve all of United’s issues in the middle of the park, but he’s a much more energetic and dynamic option when compared to Tielemans and Santos - who sometimes look like they’re running through mud compared to other midfielders in the Premier League.

Baleba collected five yellow cards across his 23 starts in the Premier League last season, averaging 1.68 fouls committed per 90. The season prior, he collected six yellow cards and a red card across 31 starts.

Only six sides in the Premier League have won more fouls than Bournemouth this season (12.00 per game). 

Bournemouth remain one of the most hard working sides in the Premier League, with Marco Rose keeping a lot of the tactical elements in terms of pressing that Andoni Iraola introduced.

Only three teams have committed more fouls than Bournemouth in the Premier League this season (13.00 per game), and only Hull (22) have collected more yellow cards than Bournemouth so far (21).

Truffert has committed more fouls than any other Bournemouth player this term (15 - 2.16 per 90) with the Frenchman also averaging 3.03 tackles per 90. He’s committed at least one foul in all three of Bournemouth’s away games - committing 3+ fouls in two of these games.

Keeping Truffert’s notable high foul count so far this season in mind, he could have a real battle with Amad Diallo down that side of the pitch who is a player that United have missed at times during this poor spell with the winger only recently returning to fitness.

Amad was fouled twice in United’s clash with Leeds last week, and maintained an average of 1.46 fouls won per 90 across his 32 appearances last season. Diallo was fouled three times in this fixture last season, and was running at Truffert - who committed one foul.

Truffert’s foul numbers have risen in the early parts of this season, with Bournemouth being quite an aggressive side more generally. His battle against Amad looks like one to watch here. 

Jorgen Strand Larsen was benched in place of Jean-Philippe Mateta midweek, but the Norwegian international is likely to return to the starting eleven here.

Strand Larsen has had an isolated role up front at times for the Eagles this campaign, but he has been adept at using his body to buy free-kicks. In fact, the striker has landed this selection in seven of his eight starts this season across all competitions, averaging 1.38 fouls drawn per 90. 

Strand Larsen will find duels against the Newcastle centre back duo of Malick Thiaw and Sven Botman who like to be aggressive in their duels, as well as Nico Gonzalez who is averaging 3.3 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season from a defensive midfield position.

Kristoffer Ajer is averaging 0.5 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, which is nothing to write home about, but the focus here is on his matchup against Oli McBurnie.

The Scottish international has been a real handful for opposing centre backs, and he has drawn a foul in all seven starts this campaign. That includes multiple fouls drawn against Chelsea, Coventry and Man United, taking his average to 1.88 fouls drawn per 90, which is easily the highest in the Hull squad.

He is a very physical centre forward who likes to use his body to hold up the ball. Given how direct the Tigers play at times, Ajer should have plenty of duels to get through at the MKM Stadium.

Luka Vuskovic only featured for the final 22 minutes against Jablonec midweek, but he had landed this selection in seven consecutive appearances across all competitions before that.

The centre back is incredibly confident, and he likes having the ball at his feet. His average of 1.32 fouls drawn per 90 this season is notably high for a centre back, and it is one of the highest figures in the Brighton squad. 

Liverpool committed 12 fouls against Villarreal midweek, and 13 infringements against Brentford before that, despite the Bees finishing the game with ten men. Andoni Iraola has got Liverpool pressing high again, which bodes well for this selection.

Man United have hit a real rough patch of form, without a win in any of their last seven across all competitions, but they have still been a good team to target for drawing fouls.

Leeds racked up 16 infringements against them last weekend, while Spurs had the same tally in the week before. They have been particularly adept at drawing fouls in midfield with the likes of Youri Tielemans, Andrey Santos and Carlos Baleba, and Tyler Adams will occupy a similar zone of the field as them this weekend. 

The Bournemouth midfielder has committed 12 fouls in his five Premier League starts this season, averaging 2.34 fouls per 90. This looks like an ideal matchup for him to increase those figures.

As we go into gameweek eight of the Premier League, no player has committed more fouls than Dominic Calvert-Lewis so far.

The Leeds striker has landed this bet in five of his seven starts, averaging 2.25 fouls per 90. Calvert-Lewin has approached this season with an increased aggression, and he finds himself in a rich vein of form. Leeds look to play direct to their centre forward as often as possible, which gives Calvert-Lewin plenty of aerial duels to contest. 

The former Everton man is always looking to make life difficult for opposing centre backs, and he should find duels against Nordi Mukiele, who has been fouled in five of his last six starts, and Reinildo who is averaging 1.51 fouls drawn per 90 this season.