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The long-awaited debut of Johnny Walker at heavyweight.

His light heavyweight run had people tipping him as the one who could dethrone Jon Jones.

A loss of focus and a suspect chin put an end to that, but I can see him having a new lease of life at heavyweight.

Mick Parkin is fighting for the first time in over a year since his disappointing loss to heavyweight gatekeeper Marcin Tybura at UFC London.

He looked second-best in that fight against Tybura, who is the litmus test as to whether you are a top-ten heavyweight.

I don’t think this will be pretty, but I can see Walker getting it done.

He’ll be too long and awkward for Parkin, and I think Walker at heavyweight is an interesting spice-up to the division that needs an injection of life.

This is the standout fight on the card for me; the long-awaited UFC debut of Roberto Soldic.

The Croatian was a two-weight world champion in KSW, and even holds a KO win over former UFC Middleweight Champion Dricus du Plessis.

Khaos Williams is a real fan favourite, with his power and highlight-reel KOs.

He’s one of those fighters for whom his record has never been a factor; the company likes him for his entertainment.

All things considered, it feels the UFC have given Soldic a favourable stylistic matchup.

He’s a fighter with a big reputation, so it serves the UFC if he wins this.

This pricing largely comes down to the fact that King Green, to his credit, is on a four-fight win streak.

He somehow overcame Terrance McKinney in his last fight despite looking like he was going to be TKO’d in the first round.

That being said, I feel this run works in our favour in terms of inflating the bookmaker’s price for a Ribovics finish.

Argentine Ribovics easily retired legend Edson Barboza in his last fight with a first-round finish, and is yet to lose a fight by KO/TKO in his young career.

Green will come into this fight as he always does: hands down and implementing his self-professed ‘hood’ style.

He got lucky in his last fight against McKinney, but I see Ribovics as a much more polished fighter, and I think this is great value at these odds.

Whilst many people seem to be hating on this fight as a main event (rightly so for a numbered card), I think there is still value to be had in backing Natalia Silva to win the vacant UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship.

Silva has been on a roll since joining the organisation in 2022, winning eight straight, including her last three, which have been against former UFC champions (Rose Namajunas, Alexa Grasso, and Jessica Andrade).

Cong is no slouch in her own right, having won four straight since her submission loss to Gabriella Fernandes in 2024.

This is a case of backing the more proven fighter, and Silva’s recent CV is that of a ready-made champion.

I was happy to lay the Portugal clean sheet ahead of their clash with Denmark on Thursday night, siding with both teams to score, and after they conceded two (winning 4-2), the first of which came after 23 minutes, I’m going in again when they host a very competitive Norway.

In Portugal’s 2-1 win in Norway last week, the scoreline really flattered them.

This bet was in after 51 minutes, Norway had 62% possession, won the xG battle 2.52-1.04 and the shot count 22-12.

Portugal are top of this group with nine points from nine, but it’s not been convincing and Norway will be desperate to get back on track after losing in Wales in midweek - a match that was heavily impacted by a 46th minute red card.

Back-to-back home games suits Wales here, building some confidence with an important win over Norway on Thursday night (2-1).

Denmark lost 4-2 at home to Portugal that same evening, and conceded 2.25 xG and 10 shots on target on their home patch.

Wales edged the first half in Denmark last week, losing 2-0, and the Danes have conceded in six of their last eight competitive outings - clean sheets are not a regular occurrence.

In the last year they’ve conceded twice to Belarus, four times to Scotland, twice to Czechia, with their only shutouts coming against North Macedonia and Wales.

It’d be a surprise to see them keep another one in Wales, the latter will likely move into the qualification spots with a win.

I really like this price for Greece to avoid defeat against a Germany side who have only managed to win one of their three games under Jurgen Klopp so far.

Greece beat Germany 1-0 when the nations met in Augsburg last week, they did get a bit lucky but Germany didn’t do enough to win the game and there ended up being very little between the two in terms of xG (1.27-0.72) despite Germany having double the number of shots as Greece.

Greece have avoided defeat in all three of their games in this Nations League group so far, which is really impressive considering that they’re competing alongside Germany and Netherlands in this group, as well as Serbia - who are by far the weakest side.

Greece have also scored in all three of their games so far, netting 2+ goals in two of these games. I think they have enough momentum to cause a bit of an upset again, and Germany still clearly have a lot of work to do to become a consistent side under Klopp.

I was happy to lay the Portugal clean sheet ahead of their clash with Denmark on Thursday night, siding with both teams to score, and after they conceded two (winning 4-2), the first of which came after 23 minutes, I’m going in again when they host a very competitive Norway.

In Portugal’s 2-1 win in Norway last week, the scoreline really flattered them.

This bet was in after 51 minutes, Norway had 62% possession, won the xG battle 2.52-1.04 and the shot count 22-12.

Portugal are top of this group with nine points from nine, but it’s not been convincing and Norway will be desperate to get back on track after losing in Wales in midweek - a match that was heavily impacted by a 46th minute red card.

Back-to-back home games suits Wales here, building some confidence with an important win over Norway on Thursday night (2-1).

Denmark lost 4-2 at home to Portugal that same evening, and conceded 2.25 xG and 10 shots on target on their home patch.

Wales edged the first half in Denmark last week, losing 2-0, and the Danes have conceded in six of their last eight competitive outings - clean sheets are not a regular occurrence.

In the last year they’ve conceded twice to Belarus, four times to Scotland, twice to Czechia, with their only shutouts coming against North Macedonia and Wales.

It’d be a surprise to see them keep another one in Wales, the latter will likely move into the qualification spots with a win.

Ireland raced into a 3-0 lead inside just 25 minutes when these nations faced off last week, and I think this is a nice price to back Ireland to collect all three points against Israel again.

Ireland have had a mixed Nations League campaign so far, following up their 3-0 win over Israel with a 2-2 draw against Austria at home. That result looks decent on paper, but Ireland will feel as though they should have got more from the game as they held a 2-0 lead early on.

Israel are yet to win a game in the Nations League, conceding 3+ goals in both of their matches against Austria and Ireland. They did manage to keep Kosovo quiet last time out, but still conceded 18 shots and four shots on target while offering very little attacking threat themselves. 

The 3-0 Bills have home advantage against the 1-2 Patriots and on current form, the Bills should comfortably cover the spread. Indeed, this is their third straight game in their new Highmark Stadium, and they should be fully accustomed to the new ground. A lack of travel also means fresh legs, and this is another advantage

New England ranks joint-dead-last with Miami offensively, averaging just 12.0 points per game, while Buffalo leads the NFL with an average of 33.7 PPG

New England may be tighter defensively (17.0 OPP PPG vs. 26.0 for the Bills) but QB Drake Maye is not playing well, without a touchdown since Week 1 and with 6 interceptions already. He has thrown for 178, 208, and 199 yards in the 3 games so far this season, far below his usual high standards.

In contrast, the Bills rank 4th in yards per game with 401.7 (New England is 22nd with 307.0) and 4th in rushing (155.0 yards per game) with New England 17th in rushing defense with 108.3 opponent yards per game. Expect the Bills to capitalize on Maye's mistakes and claim the win here

The Jets are 1-2 on the season and lost 31-24 to the Lions last week, but were tied in that game before a late Detroit TD took them over the line.

They have also been far more competitive than their record suggests, with their 2 losses being by a combined 10 points. On the other side, the Bears will need to decide which backup QB to go with - Tyson Bagent or Case Keenum - with starter Caleb Williams still on the sidelines with a hamstring injury.

Jets QB Geno Smith put in a particularly strong performance against the Lions last time out and can keep it close against a Bears side that is 2-1 on the season. He has thrown 102 passes without an interception so far this campaign. The Jets also have the 4th-best defense in opponent yards per play (4.8). There's too much here not to back New York at +3.5.

Jacksonville ranks 10th in the NFL with 27.3 PPG, with Cincinnati 12th on 26.7. The Jaguars scored 35 last time out vs. the New England Patriots. 

However, it is in defense where the Jaguars peak, having the strongest in the league with just 12.0 OPP PPG. In contrast, Cincinnati sits joint 12th on 21.0. Joe Burrow has yet to hit peak form for the Bengals, while the key stat could be 3rd down conversion percentage. Here, the Jaguars sit 5th on 52.94% and the Bengals joint-7th on 46.34%.

The Jaguars are also 88.9% in red-zone conversion (TD only) compared to Cincinnati's 50.00%. This game could potentially end up as something of a shootout but there's enough here to make me side with Jacksonville.

The Giants are averaging 15.3 PPG this season (28th in the NFL) while Arizona aren't performing much better, sitting 18th with 21.0 PPG. This combines to 36.3 PPG between the 2 sides, well below this line. Indeed, the Giants have only scored 46 points in 3 games, barely beating the 44.5 points total here. The Cardinals have scored just 63.

Defensively, Arizona sits 24th with an OPP PPG of 27.0 but the Giants have been tight, sitting 9th with 18.3 OPP PPG. This combines to 45.3, 0.8 over this line, but quarterback Jaxson Dart's season-ending knee injury has significantly weakened the Giants and it's unlikely they'll be able to take full advantage of the Cardinals' weak defense. In addition, Arizona and New York sit joint-2nd-bottom in the NFL for yards per play (4.5) suggesting fewer opportunities. Back the Under.

This is less a case of the Dolphins winning, that's unlikely, but this spread is just too high. The Vikings may be 3-0 on the season, but are weak offensively and struggle to execute scoring chances.

They rank dead last in yards per game (238.3), dead last in yards per play (4.3), and dead last in passing yards per game (137.0).

Star wide receiver Justin Jefferson could also miss the game for Minnesota, having suffered an ankle injury during the Vikings' 23-16 win over the Buccaneers this week. This too will weaken them. Minnesota's strong defense should see them to victory, but not by this sort of margin.

Back-to-back home games suits Wales here, building some confidence with an important win over Norway on Thursday night (2-1).

Denmark lost 4-2 at home to Portugal that same evening, and conceded 2.25 xG and 10 shots on target on their home patch.

Wales edged the first half in Denmark last week, losing 2-0, and the Danes have conceded in six of their last eight competitive outings - clean sheets are not a regular occurrence.

In the last year they’ve conceded twice to Belarus, four times to Scotland, twice to Czechia, with their only shutouts coming against North Macedonia and Wales.

It’d be a surprise to see them keep another one in Wales, the latter will likely move into the qualification spots with a win.

I’ve backed this angle in Wales’ last two games and it’s landed on both occasions with Williams having 3+ shots v Denmark last week and 2+ shots against Norway last time out, as well as finding the back of the net.

Williams is really consistent when it comes to taking aim and is also on free kicks for Wales - which is where his goal against Norway came from last time out. Williams has taken five shots already in the Nations League, with three of these efforts coming from outside of the box.

Williams has taken six shots across five starts in the Premier League this season (1.20 per 90), maintaining a very similar average across 36 starts in the Premier League last season (1.29 per 90). 

Wales should be able to take quite a lot of confidence from their 2-1 win over Norway last time out, which was their first win in this challenging Nations League A group.

Craig Bellamy has previously spoken about wanting to see this Wales side tested by the best sides to better prepare them for major tournaments and they’ve had that in their away games against Denmark and Portugal so far, losing both games without getting on the scoresheet.

However, this Wales side are a different team in front of their own crowd - 15 of their 21 goals during World Cup qualifying came in front of their own fans and I think corners could present a good avenue to goal against this Denmark side.

Wales racked up exactly four corners in their 2-0 defeat on the road to Denmark last week, showing how Craig Bellamy’s side can still be competitive on the corner count even if they struggle in the game more widely.

Ben Davies and Chris Mepham really struggled against Rasmus Hojlund last week and I can see the same scenario developing here with the former United struggling targeting Davies in particular due to the size difference between the two.

Davies committed two fouls when these nations met last week, with Chris Mepham also tempted into committing two fouls against Hojlund - who was fouled four times in total. Hojlund sometimes get overly obsessed with the physical battle against centre backs, which is good for our selection but does harm his overall output as a striker.

Davies struggled in a similar manner with Ronaldo and Felix in Wales’ opening game of their Nations League campaign against Portugal. He committed 2+ fouls in that game too, providing a decent level of evidence to suggest that Davies will foul at least once again here.

Allen has already scored 6 rushing TDs this season - 2 each over the 3 games played so far - putting him well on target to beat the 14 rushing TDs he scored last campaign.

Allen is up against a Patriots defense that ranks joint-10th in opponent rushing TDs per game (0.7) but conceded 2 rushing TDs last time out vs. the Jaguars last time out.

The Pats also sit 17th in rushing yards per game (108.3) and joint-10th in rushing attempts per game (25.0). With Drake Maye's issues with interceptions and the Bills top-rated rushing attack (4th in rushing yards per game, 155.0), Allen could capitalize again and score a TD for the 4th straight game this season

Cook rushed for 135 yards against Detroit in Week 2 and 154 yards versus Los Angeles last time out, taking his average up to a season-best 115.3 Y/G on the season.

Cook is also averaging 6.0 yards per attempt this season, another season record. Against the Patriots, he faces a team that ranks 17th in the NFL on opponent rushing yards per game (108.3).

With Pats QB Drake Maye already having 6 interceptions, the Bills' rushing game could capitalize, allowing Cook to get over this total. Expect the majority of Cook's yards to come later in the game as the Bills use their offensive prowess to pull away from the Pats

Despite the Bills' favorability in this one, they are still weak defensively. With an average of 26.0 OPP PPG (joint-21st in the NFL) and 254.3 opponent passing yards per game (27th in the NFL), there should be plenty of opportunities for the Pats to get yards.

Doubs is one of the most likely to do it. He went over his line in New England's dismal 35-6 Week 3 defeat to the Jaguars, receiving for 49 yards, while in Week 2 vs. Pittsburgh he received for 96, with his longest reception being 63 yards. He is averaging 49.4 receiving yards over his last 10 games and has had a 75% catch rate over his last 2 games