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Frankfurt fell to a 6-0 defeat against Leipzig in their first game back following the international break, which was a result that summed up how their season has gone so far.

Frankfurt have only managed to win one of their opening five games in the Bundesliga this season, netting nine goals across these games but also conceding 16 - which is the third highest tally in the division.

BTTS landed in both league meetings between these sides this season, with the most recent clash producing four goals as the sides played out a 2-2 draw with a combined xG of 5.81.

Koln saw BTTS in their first game back following the international break against Mochengladbach and have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches more widely.

Both teams have scored in 6/6 Sassuolo league games this season. They've also conceded exactly two goals in every away game.

Their defence might be a concern, but scoring goals certainly isn't. Sassuolo average 19 shots and 2.05 xG per away game.

They've scored 10 goals so far, putting them among the league's top six attacks.

Frosinone have only conceded three goals in three home games, but their xGA at home is actually 2.05 per game.

That's pretty high, especially when you've got a team with Sassuolo's attacking capability coming to town.

Frosinone have generated over 1 xG in 2/3 home league games, posting 2.45 against Como and 1.49 against Venezia.

Encouraging numbers considering the chances that Sassuolo are giving away, and they've scored five goals across their three home games to this point.

Le Mans have been an entertaining addition to Ligue 1 this season and have actually managed to avoid defeat at home in 2026 with all four of their defeats this year coming away from home.

Le Mans have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches, most recently falling to a 3-1 defeat against PSG on the road. They’ve only managed to win one of their opening six games, but have carried a scoring threat across these games with 10 goals scored.

Toulouse have made an identical start to the season as their opponents here and have conceded 11 goals across their opening six matches in Ligue 1. Their three away games in the French top flight have produced 12 goals (4.0 per game).

Frankfurt fell to a 6-0 defeat against Leipzig in their first game back following the international break, which was a result that summed up how their season has gone so far.

Frankfurt have only managed to win one of their opening five games in the Bundesliga this season, netting nine goals across these games but also conceding 16 - which is the third highest tally in the division.

BTTS landed in both league meetings between these sides this season, with the most recent clash producing four goals as the sides played out a 2-2 draw with a combined xG of 5.81.

Koln saw BTTS in their first game back following the international break against Mochengladbach and have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches more widely.

Le Mans have been an entertaining addition to Ligue 1 this season and have actually managed to avoid defeat at home in 2026 with all four of their defeats this year coming away from home.

Le Mans have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches, most recently falling to a 3-1 defeat against PSG on the road. They’ve only managed to win one of their opening six games, but have carried a scoring threat across these games with 10 goals scored.

Toulouse have made an identical start to the season as their opponents here and have conceded 11 goals across their opening six matches in Ligue 1. Their three away games in the French top flight have produced 12 goals (4.0 per game).

Derby are hoping to end a wretched run of form when they welcome Stoke on Saturday afternoon, they’ve failed to win any of their last five matches - but have seen BTTS in four of these games.

Stoke have a much better form heading into this game having won three of their last four matches, with all four of these games seeing BTTS & No Draw. Stoke have only drawn one of their 10 games in the Championship this term, the joint lowest tally of any side in the division.

Derby have only drawn three of their 10 games in the Championship and have conceded 19 goals across these matches - only two sides in the Championship have conceded more goals than Derby in the early stages of this campaign.

Barnsley are really struggling at the moment, coming into this game having lost each of their last three games across all competitions - seeing BTTS & No Draw in all three matches.

Barnsley have only drawn one of their four home games in League One so far this season, netting four goals across these matches. 

Cambridge will be encouraged by their poor defensive record in front of their own fans, with Barnsley shipping eight goals at home - only five sides in the division have conceded more goals at home so far.

Cambridge enter this game having avoided defeat in each of their last five games, with two of these matches seeing BTTS & No Draw. 

They’ll be confident of claiming all three points here given the form of both sides ahead of this clash, but Barnsley have shown that they should have enough to get on the scoresheet.

I can see PSG picking up all three points in this one, but I wouldn’t be in a rush to back them for a clean sheet given their defensive record at the start of this season.

It’s no surprise that PSG have started the season quite slowly domestically, Luis Enrique has been very clever with his he manages the fitness of his squad so that they peak at the perfect time. 

PSG have seen BTTS & No Draw in four of their last five matches, winning all five of these games. That shutout they kept against Brest in this recent run is the only clean sheet that they’ve kept so far this season which matches up quite well with the fact that Strasbourg are without a clean sheet across their last 20 matches.

Strasbourg have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches, seeing BTTS & No Draw in four of these games. This selection landed in this fixture last season as PSG ran out 2-1 winners over Strasbourg back in February.

I’ve really not been that impressed with either of these backlines in the early parts of the season, and there should be enough attacking talent on display to punish those inconsistencies again at both ends.

Newcastle have kept just one clean sheet in the Premier League this season, with that shutout coming against a Tottenham side who still sit in the relegation zone. They conceded four goals at Coventry last time out and have seen BTTS & No Draw in each of their last three matches.

Villa have also only kept one clean sheet in the Premier League this season, and put six goals past Fenerbahce during the week in the Champions League. They’ve seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, with three of those games seeing BTTS & No Draw. 

Stockport come into this fixture having won each of their last three matches, winning two of these games to nil. They’ve started the season strongly overall, sitting third in the table having won five of their opening nine matches.

Stockport have won three of their five matches in front of their own fans, notably scoring 13 goals across these games - which is the second highest scoring tally of any side at home in League One this term, with the exception of Reading (14).

Bromley are struggling to adapt to the level of League One, winning just two of their eight matches. The 20 goals that Bromley have conceded in League One so far this season is the joint highest tally of any side, and it’s not like they’re scoring much either - netting just nine goals across their eight matches.

PSG played some of the best football I’ve ever seen at the Etihad on Wednesday night, coming away 4-2 winners in Manchester having found the target 10 times from their 15 shots in the clash.

That victory marks their fifth consecutive victory ahead of this fixture, following a slow start to the season which mirrors the sluggish start that Luis Enrique’s side made to last campaign.

Strasbourg are really struggling defensively at the moment having failed to keep a clean sheet across their last 20 matches. They’ve failed to win any of their last three games, losing each of the last two, and have conceded 12 goals across their six games in Ligue 1 (2.0 per game).

PSG came away 2-1 winners in this fixture last season, despite dropping down to 10 men for the final quarter of that game. I see them having far too much scoring power for Strasbourg here, who are struggling for consistency under Hugo Oliveira. 

Inter have scored 2+ goals in all but one of their Serie A games so far this season, with the exception of a 1-0 win away from home against Cagliari - that saw Inter generate an xG of 3.67 from 31 shots, suggesting that it should have been a more routine victory.

Inter are the top scorers in Serie A so far this season having netted 18 goals across their six games. They’ve won five of these matches, only dropping points to a high flying Roma side, but do have defensive vulnerabilities. 

Inter have conceded eight goals across their opening six games, which is why I’m leaning more towards backing them for 2+ goals rather than backing them for the win outright. They scored three goals on their trip here last season, but still didn’t get the three points with Bologna matching that tally.

Bologna have started the season poorly and have only managed to win one of their last five matches across all competitions. They haven’t won any of their three home games this term, and a visit from the league leaders is unlucky to improve that record.

Newcastle have kept just one clean sheet in the Premier League so far this season, with that shutout coming against Tottenham - who still managed to register 17 shots and an xG of 1.12.

Newcastle are far too open for me at the moment, it was evident again in their 4-1 defeat to Coventry last time out. Newcastle aren’t having many issues scoring themselves though, seeing BTTS in each of their last four Premier League matches.

Aston Villa come into this clash on the back of a brilliant midweek win in the Champions League over Fenerbahce, coming away 6-0 winners at Villa Park.  They have, however, seen BTTS in each of the four matches prior to that win - with Unai Emery’s side keeping just one clean sheet so far this term domestically.

Looking at this game, one player that fills me with excitement is Fer Lopez.

The Spaniard has impressed this season after a tough first campaign for Wolves where he had little impact.

So far, Lopez has netted four goals and claimed two assists. He’s been one of the division’s best players and on ability, he may well be the best.

He is Wolves’ top scorer and his eight shots on target is the most in the squad - an average of 1.10 per 90 minutes.

He’s had at least one shot on target in four of his last five starts.`

With Lopez’ ability, flair and ability to impact the game, naturally, he becomes a bit of a target for the opposition and he’s drawn 14 fouls this season, the second-most in the squad behind Mateus Mane.

That works out at an average of 1.77 times per 90 minutes.

He’s been fouled in seven of nine starts this season and drew three in midweek against Bolton.

Two of Burnley’s central midfield players - Laurent and Hatate average some of their highest fouls committed numbers at 1.41 and 1.39, respectively.

The Brazillian midfielder is fantastic. Incredibly industrious, aggressive and always looking to win the ball back and get Wolves on to the front foot.

That aggression and tenacity does lead itself to a high foul count though and his 15 fouls is the most in the Wolves squad, an average of 1.81 per 90 minutes.

In tough games, we’ve seen some big foul counts. He made two against West Ham as well as four against each of Sheffield United and West Brom. 

Laurent, Hatate, Mejbri and Raghouber, who all operate centrally, have drawn the three highest foul counts for Burnley.

Krejci is clearly a player who could cut it at the level above. He’s been a bit in and out this season but started in midweek and played the full 90 minutes.

He’s made five fouls across his three Championship appearances, with midweek being the first game without one.

He will likely come into contact with those central players that were mentioned before and he’ll need to marshall veteran striker Jamie Vardy.

Krejci’s fouls can often come at the other end. He is excellent in the air and is a target for Wolves from set pieces, but he can get a little bit overzealous in his attempts to win the ball.

Motherwell’s poor form makes Kilmarnock worth considering to avoid defeat at Rugby Park on Saturday. 

The visitors have lost their last four Scottish Premiership matches and failed to win three of their four top-flight away games this season, with their only road success coming on the opening weekend.

Kilmarnock are bottom of the table, but Neil McCann’s side have started to show signs of life after a difficult start.

They have lost just once in their last four league outings, and even in last weekend’s 3-1 defeat away at Rangers, they created several chances.

Before that, Killie picked up a point at Aberdeen, won away to Hibs and came close to beating Hearts at home.

With their form improving and Motherwell struggling, the hosts look capable of taking something from this game.

There should be no shortage of goals when East Kilbride face Montrose in Scottish League One on Saturday. 

Both teams have been among the SPFL’s great entertainers this season, so over 2.5 goals looks an appealing option.

East Kilbride were involved in plenty of high-scoring games during last season’s promotion campaign, and this term has been no different. 

Indeed, 8 of their 10 league games this season have produced over 2.5 goals, including 4 of their 5 at home. 

Given the attacking intensity Mick Kennedy’s men play with, they are more than capable of covering the over 2.5 line themselves. 

They are also vulnerable at the back though, as shown by last weekend’s 2-2 home draw with Airdrie.

Montrose have been just as reliable, with over 2.5 goals landing in 9 of their 10 league games, including their win over East Kilbride in the reverse fixture in August.

A fascinating title race is developing in Scottish League One, and I’m keen to back league leaders Ross County to claim another victory away at Queen of the South in a game featuring over 1.5 goals.

The Staggies are setting the pace in the third tier and are one of only two teams still unbeaten in the SPFL this season, alongside fellow title challengers Hamilton. 

County sit above Accies thanks to their superior goal difference, having scored multiple goals in seven of their eight league victories. 

Their latest triumph was a resounding 5-0 win away at Montrose last weekend.

Queen of the South have beaten Cove Rangers and Peterhead in their last two league matches, but this will be a much tougher test. 

The Doonhamers were thrashed 8-0 by Ross County in the league last month.

I don’t expect a repeat of that scoreline here, but County can claim another win and score at least twice in the process.

Clyde look well placed to preserve their perfect home record in Scottish League Two by beating Annan on Saturday. 

The Bully Wee are joint top of the table and made it five home wins from five with a 2-1 victory over Dumbarton last weekend.

They will be confident of extending that run against an Annan side that are propping up the table.

Moreover, the Galabankies were thrashed 6-1 at home by Stranraer last weekend and have also lost their last three league games on the road. 

Each of those three away defeats came against a team currently fifth or lower in the table, which strengthens the case for Clyde to claim another home win.

Dumbarton tend to do their best work at home and look worthy of support on the double chance when they host Stirling Albion on Saturday.

All 12 points the Sons have earned this season have come at home, including victories in each of their last three matches at the Rock.

They also beat joint league leaders Clyde 2-1 in their first home game of the campaign.

Stirling have turned a corner recently with a couple of wins, but their only away success in the league came against bottom side Annan, and even that was a narrow 1-0 victory.

The Binos had lost each of their previous four away games prior to that success, including heavy defeats at Forfar and Elgin and a loss away to Edinburgh City in which they conceded seven goals.

Moreover, Steven Whittaker’s side have won just 3 of their 10 league matches this season, so it is difficult to see them claiming another victory against a Dumbarton side who have been so strong at home.

Thierno Barry is developing really well at Everton, I was keen to keep an eye on him when he arrived from Villarreal last summer and he took some time to find his feet in the Premier League but can definitely offer a real threat to Chelsea here.

Barry is Everton’s top scorer in the Premier League so far this season having netted three goals across his six starts. He netted eight goals across 21 starts last season, so he’s made a decent start and should be able to match if not exceed the tally from his debut campaign.

Barry has taken 22 shots across his six starts in the Premier League (3.92 per 90), seeing eight of these efforts find the target (1.43 per 90). He’s clearly playing with more confidence than he did last season, with a clear increase on the 0.66 shots on target he averaged throughout last campaign.

Enzo Fernandez has quickly established himself as a starter in the Man City midfield alongside Elliot Anderson, following his summer move from Chelsea.

The Argentine international is given more attacking freedom in that pairing, and he has landed this bet in his last four starts. 

Fernandez is averaging 2.13 shots per 90 across all competitions as a Man City player, and he also found the back of the net against Sunderland just before the international break.

Enzo Maresca knows how to get the most out of Fernandez, having managed him at Chelsea, and City come into this clash against Ipswich at the weekend as massive favourites. If the visitors sit deep, Fernandez will be able to play more advanced than usual.

Ryan Sessegnon got on the scoresheet against Ipswich last time out, with a wonderful strike from the edge of the box. However, his efforts were in vain as Fulham squandered their advantage to lose 2-1. Sessegnon started in place of Antonee Robinson who suffered a minor injury whilst training, and he is unlikely to be rushed back into first team action. 

Sessegnon recorded three shots against Ipswich last time out, and two efforts against AFC Wimbledon in his only other start of the season. He is an attack-minded fullback who likes to contribute going forward, and this matchup against Hull looks like a good one.

Johan Manzambi has settled in really well to this Villa side, registering four goal contributions across just five appearances. 

His most recent involvement came during the week against Fenerbahce, scoring from his two shots as Villa recorded a 6-0 win in the Champions League.

Manzambi scored his first Premier League goal in Villa’s win over Tottenham in North London a few weeks ago and has taken 11 shots already across just two starts in the English top flight (5.35 per 90).

Manzambi has seen three of these efforts find the target (1.46 per 90). He also scored five goals across 26 starts in the Bundesliga last term, notably averaging 2.19 shots per 90.

Hull started the season with successive victories, but since then they have failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions. Their form has dipped a bit, so both sides come into this clash under a bit of pressure to win. The Tigers most recently drew 2-2 against Everton, and there were 13 corners in that match. The hosts accounted for seven of those. 

Hull are averaging 10.5 corners per game this season, rising to 11.4 when playing away where this selection has landed in each of their last three straight matches. Meanwhile, Fulham are averaging 10.4 corners per game, so an even game is expected at Craven Cottage this weekend.

Oli McBurnie and Matt Crooks found their way into the referee’s notebook against Everton last time out, meaning Hull have landed this selection in all six of their Premier League matches this season. In fact, the Tigers have picked up 20 yellow cards, which is more than any other side in the division. 

Sergej Jakirovic likes his players to be strong in their tackles, and compete for second balls to make life hard for their opponents. So far, that approach has been successful in the top flight, with Hull currently sitting eighth, so there is no reason for it to change.

McBurnie was shown a yellow card for an incident with James Tarkowski last weekend, which was his third booking of the season in just six appearances.

The centre forward is incredibly aggressive in his approach up front, always looking to make life difficult for opposing centre backs, and he is averaging 1.69 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season. 

Hull often look to play direct to him, which should bring Calvey Bassey into the game here. The centre back is averaging 1.11 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has landed this selection in five out of six starts overall.

After scoring in his first two appearances as a Fulham player, Gonzalo Garcia has been on a bit of a barren run recently, failing to score in any of his last six appearances.

However, his output has remained high in those games - he is continuing to pop up in dangerous positions, which means a goal cannot be too far away for the former Real Madrid man. 

Garcia is averaging 3.74 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and he recorded two shots on target against Ipswich last time out.

Hull have been one of the leakiest defensive units so far, conceding an average of 13.5 shots per game across all competitions, with 4.5 of those hitting the target. 

Mohamed Belloumi was benched against Chelsea last weekend, which was confirmed to be only due to fatigue after returning from the international break, but it didn’t take long for him to make a difference.

The Algerian international scored Hull’s equalising goal, taking his tally to three goals from six Premier League appearances this season.

Belloumi should return to the starting lineup at Craven Cottage, where he is expected to operate from the right wing.

He is averaging 2.90 shots per 90 in the Premier League so far, which is the highest figure in the Hull squad, and he has landed this selection in five of his six starts.This matchup against a winless Fulham side looks like a favourable one.

There should be no shortage of goals when East Kilbride face Montrose in Scottish League One on Saturday. 

Both teams have been among the SPFL’s great entertainers this season, so over 2.5 goals looks an appealing option.

East Kilbride were involved in plenty of high-scoring games during last season’s promotion campaign, and this term has been no different. 

Indeed, 8 of their 10 league games this season have produced over 2.5 goals, including 4 of their 5 at home. 

Given the attacking intensity Mick Kennedy’s men play with, they are more than capable of covering the over 2.5 line themselves. 

They are also vulnerable at the back though, as shown by last weekend’s 2-2 home draw with Airdrie.

Montrose have been just as reliable, with over 2.5 goals landing in 9 of their 10 league games, including their win over East Kilbride in the reverse fixture in August.

Clyde look well placed to preserve their perfect home record in Scottish League Two by beating Annan on Saturday. 

The Bully Wee are joint top of the table and made it five home wins from five with a 2-1 victory over Dumbarton last weekend.

They will be confident of extending that run against an Annan side that are propping up the table.

Moreover, the Galabankies were thrashed 6-1 at home by Stranraer last weekend and have also lost their last three league games on the road. 

Each of those three away defeats came against a team currently fifth or lower in the table, which strengthens the case for Clyde to claim another home win.

Service Minimum is the joint-highest rated horse of the day on Racing Ratings, with a score of 9.6/10.

She has won three of her last five races, including her very last outing, and leads the market for this six-horse race at the time of writing.

She has won 38% of her career races on these ground conditions, the best rate of any other competitor.

Dan Skelton's stable is in good form and Harry Skelton has ridden Service Minimum to every one of her career wins.

She brings some course form having placed at Uttoxeter before, today could be the day for that first win at the track.

Sergeant Mayer is Racing Ratings' NAP of the Day, with a 9.6/10, and could complete a hat-trick of winning NAPs for the algorithm.

He has won three of his last four races coming into this, finishing 3rd last time out to end a run of three consecutive wins.

Sergeant Mayer is 4th in the betting at the time of writing, but it's very tight, he's 6.50 where the favourite is 4.50 and only one of the three horses shorter than him has a win to their name in their last six.

He's won twice over course and distance, as recently as September, when going off at similar odds to today.

These are his most successful ground conditions as well, so there's tonnes to like about the 4th-favourite at some very nice odds.

Jujubella is Racing Ratings' joint-2nd favourite horse of the day, with a 9.3/10 score.

She has finished in the top three in five of her last six races, and finally got a win after all that promise last time out.

Jujubella has finished in the top four in over 70% of her races on these ground conditions, and over 60% at this distance.

She is a specialist at Newcastle, with course and distance wins to her name, winning at the track earlier this month and finishing 2nd in September.

She has experience at a higher level to call on going into this Class 5 and can definitely challenge in a tight group at the top of the market.

Lanarra is Racing Ratings' joint-2nd favourite horse today, with a score of 9.3/10.

She has finished in the top three in four of her last five races, winning once, and leads the market for the 19:45.

No other horse in the race has a more recent win to their name than Lanarra, and she came 2nd over course and distance earlier this month.

She is proven at this level and can benefit from competing with weaker opposition than she's been used to of late.

J P Sullivan has a good record on Lanarra, with a win and three places, she's under 2/1 for the win already and could go off closer to odds-on.

Pedro Neto has been playing in a slightly unfamiliar position under Xabi Alonso this season, at right wingback. He is given more of a defensive responsibility than he might like, meaning he has recorded a foul in four out of five starts this season across all competitions, including two fouls against Brentford. 

This weekend, he will draw the matchup of Jack Grealish, and that is a battle to keep an eye on. The English international is averaging 3.58 fouls drawn per 90 this season across all competitions, and he has drawn multiple fouls in all three starts. Grealish is one of the best players in the league at drawing contact, which makes this price stand out.

Sasa Lukic has committed 14 fouls in six Premier League appearances this season since arriving at Portman Road from Fulham. In fact, he has committed more fouls than any other player in the Premier League this season.

Lukic has landed this selection in each of his last three consecutive league starts, with exactly three fouls against Crystal Palace, Everton and his former club Fulham, respectively. 

Man City are expected to dominate possession at the Etihad this weekend, which will give Lukic plenty of defensive work to get through. The Serbian international will have to deal with the likes of Rayan Cherki and Jeremy Doku, so it's an incredibly tough matchup.

Josh King is averaging 1.37 fouls drawn per 90 for Fulham this season, which is one of the highest figures in the squad, and there is every reason to expect that figure to rise this weekend.

Hull travel to Craven Cottage with the worst disciplinary record in the Premier League - they have picked up 20 yellow cards in just six league matches. The Tigers are aggressive in their press, especially in midfield, and Josh King will be directly up against Matt Crooks this weekend.

The 32-year-old was booked against Everton last time out for a late challenge on Grealish. He has now picked up four yellows in just five appearances this season, averaging 2.19 fouls per 90.

Victor Munoz is expected to return to the starting eleven on the ring wing for Liverpool this weekend, as Andoni Iraola still has to contend with injuries to several key players.

Alexander Isak, Cody Gakpo and Hugo Ekitike are injured. Munoz has looked sharp when he has played, always looking to make a positive impact when he gets the ball. The Spaniard has won 11 free-kicks in eight appearances across all competitions this season, averaging 2.5 fouls drawn per 90. 

He will be up against El Hadji Malick Diouf this weekend - the fullback is still getting used to life at Brentford after joining from West Ham over the summer. He committed four fouls against Aston Villa last weekend, and this looks like another difficult matchup for him.

Nico Gonzalez made his return to the starting eleven for Newcastle last weekend, after recovering from injury. The former Man City man played the full 90 as Coventry won 4-1, and Gonzalez committed two fouls.

He has landed this selection in four of his five starts as a Newcastle player, with the only failure coming against Leeds when he was withdrawn after 19 minutes with an injury. 

Gonzalez is averaging 3.37 fouls per 90 this season. He also recorded an average of 1.74 fouls per 90 across all competitions for Man City in the previous campaign, which is impressively high considering how they typically dominated possession. Gonzalez will now be directly up against Johan Manzambi here - he is averaging 2.13 fouls drawn per 90 since arriving from Freiburg.

Thierno Barry is developing really well at Everton, I was keen to keep an eye on him when he arrived from Villarreal last summer and he took some time to find his feet in the Premier League but can definitely offer a real threat to Chelsea here.

Barry is Everton’s top scorer in the Premier League so far this season having netted three goals across his six starts. He netted eight goals across 21 starts last season, so he’s made a decent start and should be able to match if not exceed the tally from his debut campaign.

Barry has taken 22 shots across his six starts in the Premier League (3.92 per 90), seeing eight of these efforts find the target (1.43 per 90). He’s clearly playing with more confidence than he did last season, with a clear increase on the 0.66 shots on target he averaged throughout last campaign.

Morgan Rogers has settled into his new role at Chelsea really well, and is thriving with the setup of Joao Pedro and Cole Palmer alongside him in Chelsea’s front three.

Rogers has scored four goals across his six starts in the Premier League this season, most recently scoring Chelsea’s second goal against Bournemouth in a 5-1 rout - finding the back of the net after just three minutes in that game.

Rogers has taken 17 shots across his six starts in the Premier League (2.93 per 90), seeing six of these efforts find the target (1.03 per 90). Both Joao Pedro and Cole Palmer are notably shorter than Rogers to have an effort on target here, despite Rogers having very similar underlying numbers.

It’s now 22 games in the Premier League without a clean sheet for Chelsea after they conceded against Bournemouth last time out, and I can’t see them keeping out this Everton side on Saturday afternoon.

Chelsea have conceded multiple goals in games against Leeds, Hull, Brighton, Brentford and Fulham which is a record to suggest that Xabi Alonso’s side have some very concerning underlying defensive issues which go beyond getting a bit unlucky at the back.

Chelsea have conceded the joint most goals of any side in the Premier League this season, shipping 13 goals across their six games. Seven of these have been conceded in their away games as well, they’ve only managed to win one of their three games on the road so far. 

Everton have scored five goals across their three home games so far, avoiding defeat in all three games. They’ve avoided defeat against Chelsea in each of the last three head to head meetings in the Premier League with Everton as the home side, coming away 3-0 winners last season. 

James Tarkowski is seriously good at winning fouls for a centre back and is at a nice price to be hauled down at least once here having drawn 10 fouls across his six starts in the Premier League so far (1.67 per 90).

That record puts Tarkowski in the 89th percentile when compared to other centre backs in the Premier League when it comes to winning fouls. He was fouled once in this fixture last season, and was also hauled down once in Everton’s defeat at Stamford Bridge during the 25/26 campaign.

Tarkowski will be in a battle with Joao Pedro, who has committed five fouls across his five starts in the Premier League so far this season (1.04 per 90) and should engage in an entertaining battle with the Everton centre back that sees Tarkowski fouled at least once.

Newcastle have kept just one clean sheet in the Premier League so far this season, with that shutout coming against Tottenham - who still managed to register 17 shots and an xG of 1.12.

Newcastle are far too open for me at the moment, it was evident again in their 4-1 defeat to Coventry last time out. Newcastle aren’t having many issues scoring themselves though, seeing BTTS in each of their last four Premier League matches.

Aston Villa come into this clash on the back of a brilliant midweek win in the Champions League over Fenerbahce, coming away 6-0 winners at Villa Park.  They have, however, seen BTTS in each of the four matches prior to that win - with Unai Emery’s side keeping just one clean sheet so far this term domestically.

Johan Manzambi has settled in really well to this Villa side, registering four goal contributions across just five appearances. 

His most recent involvement came during the week against Fenerbahce, scoring from his two shots as Villa recorded a 6-0 win in the Champions League.

Manzambi scored his first Premier League goal in Villa’s win over Tottenham in North London a few weeks ago and has taken 11 shots already across just two starts in the English top flight (5.35 per 90).

Manzambi has seen three of these efforts find the target (1.46 per 90). He also scored five goals across 26 starts in the Bundesliga last term, notably averaging 2.19 shots per 90.

Aston Villa have been the most fouled side in the Premier League since Unai Emery took the job, spanning the better part of the last three seasons.

This is directly linked to the profile of players that Villa have picked up over the last few seasons, as well as the style that Unai Emery wants his side to play - where the fullbacks are usually the ones to offer the width.

Cash has won eight fouls across his four starts in the Premier League already this season (1.86 per 90) and his heat map in the early part of this campaign shows that he regularly pushes up into more advanced areas and basically hugs the touchline to ensure that Villa have an outlet in wide areas.

Cash is likely to be up against Harvey Barnes here, who can be a bit lazy with his challenges - which is to be expected for a forward. He’s committed five fouls across his six starts in the Premier League this season (0.83 per 90).

Joao Gomes has a bit of a rocky start to life at Villa, picking up an early red card in Villa’s opening Premier League game of the season against Brighton - one of three cautions he’s already picked up in limited appearances for Unai Emery’s side.

Gomes is one of the most aggressive players in the Premier League, he’s committed five fouls across his three starts in the Premier League so far this season (2.08 per 90) and maintained an average of 2.19 fouls committed per 90 across 32 starts in the top flight for Wolves last term.

Gomes will be in a constant tangle with Yoanne Wissa here, who is preferred in a role just behind a central striker by Mathias Jaissle. He’s won 12 fouls already this season (2.08 per 90), making him the perfect opponent to tempt Joao Gomes into committing a few fouls. 

Service Minimum is the joint-highest rated horse of the day on Racing Ratings, with a score of 9.6/10.

She has won three of her last five races, including her very last outing, and leads the market for this six-horse race at the time of writing.

She has won 38% of her career races on these ground conditions, the best rate of any other competitor.

Dan Skelton's stable is in good form and Harry Skelton has ridden Service Minimum to every one of her career wins.

She brings some course form having placed at Uttoxeter before, today could be the day for that first win at the track.

Sergeant Mayer is Racing Ratings' NAP of the Day, with a 9.6/10, and could complete a hat-trick of winning NAPs for the algorithm.

He has won three of his last four races coming into this, finishing 3rd last time out to end a run of three consecutive wins.

Sergeant Mayer is 4th in the betting at the time of writing, but it's very tight, he's 6.50 where the favourite is 4.50 and only one of the three horses shorter than him has a win to their name in their last six.

He's won twice over course and distance, as recently as September, when going off at similar odds to today.

These are his most successful ground conditions as well, so there's tonnes to like about the 4th-favourite at some very nice odds.

Brentford have been one of the most efficient sides going forward this campaign, and they have scored in all six Premier League matches.

They came away with a hard-earned point at Villa Park last time out, as it finished 2-2. That game summed up Brentford’s games so far this season - they have been quite open, with chances usually available at both ends of the field. Villa recorded 20 shots with seven on target, while the Bees managed 14 shots themselves. 

Even with key attackers missing, Liverpool will fancy their chances of at least getting on the scoresheet this weekend, but keeping this in-form Brentford side out will definitely prove to be a challenge.

Brentford had the upper hand in this matchup last season, as they won 3-2 at home, before securing a point at Anfield in the reverse fixture. That game finished 1-1, and there were 16 corners. 

Brentford are averaging 10.1 corners per game this season across all competitions, rising to 11.0 when playing at home. Keith Andrews’ side are perhaps one of the strongest in the league when it comes to set-pieces, so they will try to get to the byline at every opportunity. 

Liverpool have also been effective at clearing this line so far, as they have seen at least ten corners in five of their last six matches across all competitions.

It has been a slow start to the season for Igor Thiago after he bagged 22 league goals in the previous campaign. The Brazilian has only scored once, but that came against Chelsea at home just before the international break, and this promises to be a very similar matchup. Thiago’s output has remained consistent, and he is averaging 2.67 shots per 90 across all competitions so far, which is a positive sign. 

He had no trouble landing this bet against Liverpool last season, as he accounted for four of Brentford’s 17 shots, with three of those hitting the target. He even managed to find the back of the net, so he should be looking forward to this matchup.

In addition to his goal, Igor Thiago was also booked in that match. He is a physical presence up top for the Bees, and he is averaging 1.41 fouls per 90 this season, with eight fouls in his last three starts alone. He has also picked up a yellow card in each of those matches. 

Brentford like to play direct up to their striker, which means Jeremy Jacquet should see plenty of involvement, and duels against Igor Thiago. Jacquet has landed this selection in four out of six Premier League starts for Liverpool this season, with a total of five fouls drawn. He is more willing to step forward to contest duels, which makes this price appeal.

Milos Kerkez has been one of Liverpool’s most ill-disciplined players this season, averaging 1.65 fouls per 90, which has translated to three yellow cards in seven starts across all competitions. The Hungarian international defends aggressively, and he has been a bit rash in his tackles at times. 

Kerkez struggles when matched up against more technical wingers who like having the ball at their feet, and he will play on the same side as Jaidon Anthony this weekend. The Brentford winger has been fouled three times in his last two starts alone. Michael Kayode also likes to contribute in the final third with overlapping runs, and he is averaging 1.27 fouls drawn per 90 this season.

Service Minimum is the joint-highest rated horse of the day on Racing Ratings, with a score of 9.6/10.

She has won three of her last five races, including her very last outing, and leads the market for this six-horse race at the time of writing.

She has won 38% of her career races on these ground conditions, the best rate of any other competitor.

Dan Skelton's stable is in good form and Harry Skelton has ridden Service Minimum to every one of her career wins.

She brings some course form having placed at Uttoxeter before, today could be the day for that first win at the track.

Sergeant Mayer is Racing Ratings' NAP of the Day, with a 9.6/10, and could complete a hat-trick of winning NAPs for the algorithm.

He has won three of his last four races coming into this, finishing 3rd last time out to end a run of three consecutive wins.

Sergeant Mayer is 4th in the betting at the time of writing, but it's very tight, he's 6.50 where the favourite is 4.50 and only one of the three horses shorter than him has a win to their name in their last six.

He's won twice over course and distance, as recently as September, when going off at similar odds to today.

These are his most successful ground conditions as well, so there's tonnes to like about the 4th-favourite at some very nice odds.

Jujubella is Racing Ratings' joint-2nd favourite horse of the day, with a 9.3/10 score.

She has finished in the top three in five of her last six races, and finally got a win after all that promise last time out.

Jujubella has finished in the top four in over 70% of her races on these ground conditions, and over 60% at this distance.

She is a specialist at Newcastle, with course and distance wins to her name, winning at the track earlier this month and finishing 2nd in September.

She has experience at a higher level to call on going into this Class 5 and can definitely challenge in a tight group at the top of the market.

Lanarra is Racing Ratings' joint-2nd favourite horse today, with a score of 9.3/10.

She has finished in the top three in four of her last five races, winning once, and leads the market for the 19:45.

No other horse in the race has a more recent win to their name than Lanarra, and she came 2nd over course and distance earlier this month.

She is proven at this level and can benefit from competing with weaker opposition than she's been used to of late.

J P Sullivan has a good record on Lanarra, with a win and three places, she's under 2/1 for the win already and could go off closer to odds-on.

Frosinone left-back Gabriele Bracaglia has already picked up three yellow cards in just six Serie A games.

And this is nothing new for him. Last season, he was booked 12 times in 32 Serie B appearances.

Against Sassuolo, he'll have to deal with Domenico Berardi down his side.

Berardi is averaging 2.20 fouls won per 90 minutes this season.

He's a real threat too, averaging more shots on target than anyone else at Sassuolo, with 1.71 per 90 minutes.

The referee isn't shy about handing out cards either, averaging 4.12 yellows per game.

Matteo Marchetti has taken charge of two Serie B matches this season, showing nine yellow cards.

Cristian Cásseres has been committing a lot more fouls this season, with his average jumping from 1.26 in 2025/26 to 2.17.

He's also picked up two yellow cards in six games for Toulouse so far. That's a yellow every three games, compared to roughly one every 4.4 games last season.

And things are a bit different for him away from home. Both of his yellow cards this season have come on the road, with Cásseres committing three fouls in each of those games.

Toulouse have actually committed more fouls than any other team in Ligue 1 so far, with at least 15 in all six of their matches.

Lucas Bretelle should also be playing in the same area of the pitch as Cásseres.

He's the most fouled player at Le Mans on average, winning 1.40 fouls per game. He was fouled four times against Lens and three times against Lorient in their previous two home matches.

Man City have won all six Premier League matches under Enzo Maresca, with 16 goals scored and just five conceded to establish a three point lead at the top of the pile.

Their victory against Liverpool last weekend was perhaps their most impressive result of the season so far, as they won 3-0 with goals from Erling Haaland, Rayan Cherki and Jeremy Doku. Over 2.5 goals has landed in each of Man City’s last four matches across all competitions, and they were beaten 4-2 by PSG midweek in an enthralling encounter. 

The hosts come into this clash as heavy favourites but Ipswich will fancy their chances of at least finding the back of the net. The Tractor Boys beat Fulham 2-1 last weekend, and they even scored twice against Arsenal in the EFL Cup in a 4-2 defeat.

With that being said, Ipswich were penned into their own half for large parts of that game, and it is likely to be the same here. In fact, Man City will hope to dominate even more considering it is being played at the Etihad. The wingers should see plenty of the ball, which will bring corners into play. 

Man City are averaging 6.17 corners per game in the Premier League this season, clearing this line in five out of six in total. They only missed this mark with four corners against Coventry. Meanwhile, Ipswich are conceding an average of 5.17 corners per game in the league this season.

Rayan Cherki scored the third and final goal in City’s victory at Anfield last weekend, which was his fourth goal of the season.

The Frenchman has really come into his element under Enzo Maresca, and he really thrives in tight spaces - if Ipswich sit deep, Cherki will be the one consistently trying to unlock that defence. He has incredible close control, and always seems to make the right decisions in the box when under pressure. 

Cherki is averaging 3.18 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season, a figure only bettered by Erling Haaland in the City squad, and that number could rise even further after this weekend.

Nico O’Reilly picked up his first card of the season against Liverpool last weekend, which was for a late challenge. He has started just five matches under Enzo Maresca this season, but he usually does get stuck into duels when given the opportunity. In fact, O’Reilly has landed this selection in all five starts so far, despite being substituted early in three of those. 

If O’Reilly starts at left back again, he is likely to be up against Abdul Fatawu, who will return from suspension. The winger is averaging 1.76 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and he often likes to be direct and try to beat his opposing defender.

Exequiel Palacios is expected to return to the starting eleven for Ipswich this weekend, as his side could benefit with additional defensive cover in midfield.

After completing a move from Bayer Leverkusen over the summer, the midfielder has had to adapt quickly - he has a lot more defensive work to get through for his new club. Because of that, he is averaging 1.48 fouls per 90 across all competitions, landing this selection in all three starts. 

Man City are drawing an average of 14.2 fouls per game in the league this season, with a majority of those concentrated in midfield. Elliot Anderson alone was fouled eight times against Liverpool last weekend, and he should occupy a similar zone of the field as Palacios.

I’ve been really impressed with Fabian Hurzeler’s side so far this season, they sit third in the Premier League - behind only Arsenal and Manchester City - having won four of their opening six games and notably scoring 18 goals in the process.

No side has scored more goals in the Premier League than Brighton this season, with the Seagulls scoring eight of these goals across their three home games. They’ve won two of these matches, including beating Arsenal at the Amex just before the international break.

Hurzeler had the luxury of rotating more extremely for Brighton’s midweek Conference League clash, but Sage had to field a pretty similar lineup to the one that started in Lyon - where Palace lost 3-2. 

That lack of squad depth could be the point of difference between these sides, with Brighton looking really strong at home and Palace conceding 12 goals across their opening six matches of the Premier League season. 

Elland Road is one of the toughest places to visit in the Premier League. Leeds have the quality and ferocious home support to make this an awkward task for United, who have failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions.

Most recently, United fell to a 2-0 defeat against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League. Carrick tried a new shape in that game, lining United up in a 4-3-3 but their press was all over the place and Atletico managed to break the deadlock inside one minute - which set the tone for the rest of the game.

Leeds also put in a pretty good account of themselves against the reigning champions away from home last time out - managing five shots on target at the Emirates, which is not a shot volume that Arteta’s side concede regularly.

Leeds avoided defeat against United in both head to head meetings between the sides last season, with this fixture finishing 1-1 thanks to a swift equaliser by Cunha after Aaronsen had opened the scoring a few minutes prior. 

I really don’t trust Celtic at the moment.

They may be top of the league in the Scottish Premiership, but that ranking is a tad deceiving when looking at their current form. Celtic have only managed to win one of their last five matches, losing the other four, most recently conceding four goals against Benfica in the Europa League.

Hearts also had a European assignment ahead of this clash as they drew 1-1 with Nordsjaelland in front of their own fans. They’ve scored in each of their last 15 matches, which lines up well with the fact that Celtic have kept just one shutout in their last five matches across all competitions.

Hearts and Celtic faced off four times last season, with Hearts managing to get on the scoresheet in all four games. They also became one of the few sides to actually win at Celtic Park over recent seasons with a 2-1 win over Celtic back in December last year.

Real Madrid made tough work of their trip to Rome during the week in the Champions League, eventually coming away 4-3 winners due to a few errors by Roma’s stand in keeper - but they were 3-1 down at one stage of that game.

Mourinho’s men have put in some solid performances so far, especially in front of their own fans in LaLiga where they’ve won all four games at the Bernabeu by an aggregate scoreline of 13-2. This represents an important game for Real Madrid too, they’re already six points behind Barcelona in the LaLiga title race and can’t afford for that gap to get any bigger.

Sevilla are yet to lose on the road in LaLiga, but have lost each of their last three games ahead of this clash - including conceding three goals and an xG of 1.82 to Levante in their most recent assignment, which highlights the vulnerabilities that Madrid can look to expose here.

Charlton have been far from electric. After a great start to their campaign, they have really struggled but they couldn’t pick a better fixture to get back on track and they have actually only lost one of their last five league games.

It’s all going pear shaped at Watford. The constant mismanagement from above, chopping and changing of managers and an underperforming squad have created a horrible atmosphere at Vicarage Road.

Watford have lost four on the spin, they come in to this off the back of 5-1 and 4-0 drubbings which have really spiked the panic stations at the club.

I expect Charlton to get something out of this.

With my expectation of Charlton to do well, it led to me to look at their danger men and Tyreece Campbell is the prime candidate.

He’s their top scorer with four goals so far this season. Campbell has averaged 0.76 shots on target per 90 minutes, which isn’t amazing, but against a porous Watford defence, I fancy him to get one.

Watford have shipped 10, 8, 7, 6 and 6 shots on target across their last five games and have conceded an average of 5.50 per 90 minutes this season.

Skipp has become a staple in Charlton’s midfield following his loan switch from Leicester City.

Although not the most glamorous footballer, Skipp’s desire to get on the ball and pop it around sets him up well to draw fouls.

He’s drawn an average of 1.21 fouls per 90 minutes for Charlton so far. He’s drawn one or more fouls in four of his six matches, drawing two or more in three of those.

Edo Kayembe will be one of Skipp’s direct opponents. He averages 1.53 fouls per 90 minutes and has committed the third most fouls in the Watford squad.

Kayembe and his partner Kyprianou are also two of Watford’s most fouled players and have combined for 2.11 fouls drawn per 90 minutes and attacking midfielder Iker Bravo has drawn 14 fouls (1.89/90), the most in the Watford squad.

So, Coventry looks like a good option for a foul. Regularly carded throughout his career, Coventry has averaged a hefty 1.85 fouls per 90 minutes and has fouled at least once in all of his Championship appearances this season.

His 17 fouls is also the second-highest in their squad.

Palmer really enjoys playing against Everton and has started the season well, making this is a good price for the Chelsea man to register a goal contribution when the Blues travel to Merseyside on Saturday afternoon.

Palmer scored against Everton at Stamford Bridge last season, also putting four past the Toffees at the same venue back in 2024 under Mauricio Pochettino. Palmer is gelling really well with Rogers and Pedro, leading to the 24-year-old registering five goal contributions across just six starts in the Premier League.

Palmer’s underlying numbers are also impressive, he’s taken 17 shots in the Premier League this term (2.88 per 90), also averaging 2.20 chances created per 90 - showing how he’s likely to contribute in either area of this selection.

Moises Caicedo started his first Premier League game of the season against Bournemouth last time out and you could instantly see just how much Chelsea missed his presence in the middle of the park.

Caicedo contested 11 duels in that game, winning seven of them, as well as committing one foul and making four tackles. Caicedo needs to be this defensively active to make up for the lack of numbers you see from Chelsea in the middle of the park.

Caicedo collected 11 yellow cards and one red card in the Premier League last season, also coming away with a similar tally in the season prior. This shows how consistent Caicedo is when it comes to committing fouls and picking up cautions, he’s got an ideal opponent here too.

Caicedo is set to line up against Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, who is an ex-Chelsea player. Dewsbury-Hall has won 11 fouls across his six starts in the Premier League already this season (1.84 per 90).

James Tarkowski is going to have a tough time dealing with Joao Pedro here, with the Chelsea striker already winning 14 fouls across his five starts in the Premier League (2.30 per 90).

It’s clear that Joao Pedro is playing with plenty of confidence at the moment. Having Rogers and Palmer either side of him has really helped him and has led to Pedro registering eight goal contributions already this season - with five of these being goals.

Tarkowski is yet to be booked this season, but this matchup is one that shouldn’t be ignored as I can see Joao Pedro and Tarkowski getting into a few scraps on the back of the tangled they have. 

Tarkowski was very fortunate to avoid a booking in this fixture last season, committing two fouls as he lined up against Joao Pedro. Having Palmer and Rogers around those attacking areas aids this selection too, both are strong at winning fouls and can tempt Tarkowski out of position. 

This is a meeting that regularly produces goals, each of the last seven head to head clashes - stretching back to 2023 - have seen BTTS.

The most recent clash saw Rosenborg come away 2-1 winners as the home side, generating an xG of 2.08 to Sarpsborg’s 0.91. The meeting prior to that also saw BTTS & No Draw, with Sarpsborg getting the better of Rosenborg in that clash with a 3-2 victory.

Recent form is also promising for this angle, Rosenborg have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches with three of these games seeing BTTS & No Draw. Rosenborg have only drawn four of their 22 league games this term, with only one of their 10 away games ending level.

There’s a similar pattern with Sarpsborg’s home games as well, only three of their 10 games have ended level with 24 goals across these games - perfectly split by goals scored and goals conceded. 

Groningen have started the season quite well compared to their pre-season expectations, losing just two of their opening eight matches which has left them just one point behind Ajax ahead of this clash.

Ajax fell to a surprising 2-1 defeat to Hajduk Split during the week, marking the fifth consecutive game where Ajax have seen BTTS. Three of these games have ended in BTTS & No Draw, so it’s clear that Ajax are frequently in high scoring matches.

Groningen have scored nine goals across their four home games so far this term, so I think they’ll have enough firepower to trouble an Ajax backline that has failed to keep a clean sheet across their last six matches.

Fatigue could also play a part here, Ajax had to travel to Croatia during the week while Groningen had a whole week to recover following their 5-1 thrashing of Excelsior on the road. 

Valerenga have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, seeing BTTS & No Draw in three of these games - including their most recent assignment as they lost 2-1 to KFUM on the road.

That game saw them register an xG of 1.70 from 22 shots despite the defeat, but they did allow KFUM to generate an xG of 2.04 themselves despite taking eight fewer shots than their opponents.

Valerenga are used to being a bit open at the back, they have failed to keep a clean sheet across their last 25 matches. That opens the door for Brann, who have scored 19 goals across their 10 away games this term, to contribute to the overall goal tally.

Each of the last four head to head meetings between these sides, all taking place since 2025, have seen BTTS & No Draw. The most recent clash saw Valerenga come away 3-2 winners with the sides combining to produce an xG of 5.37.

Nijmegen have seen BTTS in each of their last three matches, with all three of these games ending 1-1.

Nijmegen faced an xG against of 1.0 or higher in all three of these matches, suggesting that there is an issue with their defensive structure that opposition sides are starting to work out following their incredible season last year.

They are yet to win a home game in the Eredivisie this season, though their four games have produced 13 goals (3.25 per game). 

Fortuna Sittard actually boast the second strongest away record of any side in the Eredivisie, winning three of their four games on the road so far this term. They’ve scored nine goals across these games, conceding six, and only one of these games has ended level. 

Elland Road is one of the toughest places to visit in the Premier League. Leeds have the quality and ferocious home support to make this an awkward task for United, who have failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions.

Most recently, United fell to a 2-0 defeat against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League. Carrick tried a new shape in that game, lining United up in a 4-3-3 but their press was all over the place and Atletico managed to break the deadlock inside one minute - which set the tone for the rest of the game.

Leeds also put in a pretty good account of themselves against the reigning champions away from home last time out - managing five shots on target at the Emirates, which is not a shot volume that Arteta’s side concede regularly.

Leeds avoided defeat against United in both head to head meetings between the sides last season, with this fixture finishing 1-1 thanks to a swift equaliser by Cunha after Aaronsen had opened the scoring a few minutes prior. 

I really don’t trust Celtic at the moment.

They may be top of the league in the Scottish Premiership, but that ranking is a tad deceiving when looking at their current form. Celtic have only managed to win one of their last five matches, losing the other four, most recently conceding four goals against Benfica in the Europa League.

Hearts also had a European assignment ahead of this clash as they drew 1-1 with Nordsjaelland in front of their own fans. They’ve scored in each of their last 15 matches, which lines up well with the fact that Celtic have kept just one shutout in their last five matches across all competitions.

Hearts and Celtic faced off four times last season, with Hearts managing to get on the scoresheet in all four games. They also became one of the few sides to actually win at Celtic Park over recent seasons with a 2-1 win over Celtic back in December last year.

Seattle Sounders were incredibly unlucky to see their nine game unbeaten run ended by Dallas on the road last time out - they registered an xG of 1.99 in defeat, having more shots and shots on target than their opponents.

Seattle had won the four games prior to that defeat, winning two of these games to nil and scoring at least twice in all three games. This recent run has seen them rise up the table in the Western Conference, they currently sit seventh in the league and have won half of their home games this term.

Montreal really struggle on the road. They’ve only won two of their 14 away games in the MLS this term, which is actually a pattern that has played out in each of the last two MLS seasons. 

They’ve conceded 38 goals across these games (2.71 per game) which is the third highest tally across both conferences on the road and not sustainable when facing a Seattle side who are playing with plenty of confidence at the moment.

I’m really surprised at this price.

Inter Miami boast the best away record of any side in the MLS and come into this game having won each of their last two games to nil, netting four goals in one of these matches.

Inter Miami have won eight of their 14 away games in the MLS this season, picking up more points than any other side on the road in the Eastern Conference. 

They’ve netted 29 goals across these games (2.07 per game), which is a scoring power that sets them apart from most sides.

Atlanta have the worst home record of any side in the Eastern Conference, winning just four of their 14 matches in front of their own fans. 

They’ve conceded 26 goals across these games (1.85 per game), which should be enough of an invitation for Inter Miami to record a comfortable victory at an appealing price.

Orlando are the most chaotic side I’ve watched across any league or competition this season, and they enter this game having seen BTTS in each of their last five matches.

Orlando’s most recent clash against Toronto produced six goals as the sides played out a 3-3 draw with the teams combining to produce an xG of 4.94 (2.82-2.12).

They’ve conceded 69 goals overall across their 29 games in the MLS this season (2.37 per game), which is unsurprisingly more than any other side across both conferences. 

However, Orlando still sit in a playoff spot despite this obvious defensive weakness - suggesting that they are finding a way to offset the average of at least two goals per game that they’re conceding in the MLS this season.

They’ve scored 26 goals across their 14 home games this term (1.85 per game), but have also conceded 19. DC United have only managed to win two of their 13 away games in the MLS this term, but have carried a decent scoring power across these games - netting 16 goals.

San Diego have hit a rough period of form following what was a pretty impressive start to the season. They’ve failed to win any of their last five games ahead of this clash, with four of these games seeing BTTS.

They faced LA Galaxy at the end of August earlier this year in a meeting that produced four goals and saw BTTS as San Diego came away 3-1 winners over LA Galaxy as the home side with an xG of 2.76 - despite dropping down to 10 men in the second half of that game.

LA Galaxy’s form reads better ahead of this one, they’ve lost just one of their last five matches and have also seen BTTS in four of these games. San Diego have conceded 27 goals across their 14 away games in the MLS this term, so there should be plenty of opportunities for the home side to find the back of the net.

I think Dundee can score at least once against Rangers on Saturday night.

Steven Pressley’s side have made a really impressive start to the season and will come into this clash in high spirits.

The Dark Blues have failed to score in only one of their eight Scottish Premiership matches this season, which was on the opening weekend away at Celtic.

They have found the net in each of their subsequent seven fixtures, scoring multiple goals in each of their last two outings.

Dundee are a big, strong and powerful side, and their set pieces and long throws into the box should pose a threat.

Rangers have looked more solid of late, but their 3-1 home win over bottom-of-the-table Kilmarnock last weekend was not entirely convincing, as the visitors created several chances and could have scored more. 

The Gers also failed to keep the back door shut in a recent away win at Falkirk, another side struggling near the bottom of the table.

I expect Rangers to see plenty of the ball here, but Steven Pressley’s well-organised Dundee side should press them intensely. 

I think that could lead to the hosts picking up at least a couple of cards.

That was the case in Dundee’s 2-1 loss away at Hearts last month, when they received 3 yellow cards and had a man sent off.

The case for siding with this selection grows stronger when you factor in that Rangers’ Scottish Premiership opponents have averaged 1.75 cards per game this season.

A closer look shows that each of the last three teams to host Rangers in the Scottish Premiership has had at least two players booked.

I’m keen to back Min-su Kim to register at least one shot on target against Dundee on Saturday night.

The South Korean has quickly become a key figure in Rangers’ attack, with his creativity and willingness to shoot making him a threat around the box. 

That is underlined by the fact that Min-su Kim has averaged a whopping 4.16 shots per game across his first six Scottish Premiership appearances for the Light Blues, firing off multiple attempts in each of those matches.

Dig a little deeper and it can be seen that the 20-year-old attacking midfielder has worked the opposition goalkeeper in 5 of those six matches, including each of his three appearances away from Ibrox.

Min-su Kim should get ample opportunity to hit the target again here against a defensively minded Dundee side that have conceded a sizeable average of 18.75 shots per game in the Scottish Premiership this season.

I’m also keen to back Rangers left-back James Penrice to attempt at least one shot during this contest.

Penrice has impressed since joining the club on loan over the summer.

He is an attack-minded left-back who is given plenty of licence to get forward and often moves into central areas, giving him further opportunities to get shots away.

That has been reflected in his numbers, as he has attempted at least 1 shot in five of his six Scottish Premiership appearances this season, including 2 efforts away at Celtic.

He has also taken the odd set piece from within shooting range this season, which strengthens the case for him to have at least one attempt at Dens Park on Saturday night.

I’m always interested in backing Fernandes for a goal contribution when he’s priced at 2.0 or higher, he’s such an important player for this United side that any positive impact that United have in the final third is rarely without Fernandes being involved.

He’s registered four goal contributions across his six starts in the Premier League this season, unsurprisingly being the Manchester United player with the most goal contributions so far this term. His xG + xA tallies level out at exactly 4.0 as well, so he’s matching the standard of his underlying numbers.

Fernandes was involved in 43% of the total goals that Manchester United scored in the Premier League last season - including breaking the Premier League assist record with 21 in total. Fernandes assisted Casemiro’s goal against Leeds when the sides last met, and I think he will come away with at least one goal contribution here. 

Ethan Ampadu has impressed me in the early stages of this season, he’s matured really well over the last few campaigns and is now a consistent Premier League level midfielder.

He is quite reckless though, committing six fouls across his six starts in the Premier League (1.00 per 90). 

There’s reason to believe that this will rise as well, with Ampadu set to face off against Youri Tielemans - who has won 12 fouls across his six starts in the Premier League (2.33 per 90).

Those six fouls have led to one yellow card for Ethan Ampadu this term, and this is the perfect backdrop for him to collect his second caution of the campaign. 

Ampadu picked up 10 yellow cards across his 35 starts in the Premier League last season, including a yellow card in Leeds’ 2-1 win over United at Old Trafford earlier this year.

I think we’ll see Daniel Farke target Diogo Dalot in some capacity here with the fullback areas looking really weak for United at the moment with Shaw, Mazraoui and Dorgu all set to be sidelined.

This means we are likely to see Dalot play as a makeshift left back, or play his usual role with Ayden Heaven coming in at left back - which was the set up for United’s trip to Atletico Madrid during the week, a game that ended in defeat for Carrick’s side.

Dalot has collected two yellow cards in the Premier League already this season, more than any other United player. He’ll have the tough task of dealing with one of Leeds’ fullbacks, both of whom are really strong when it comes to winning fouls.

Gudmundsson is the shortest player in the market to be fouled here, while Bogle is averaging 1.78 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this term.

Man City have won all six Premier League matches under Enzo Maresca, with 16 goals scored and just five conceded to establish a three point lead at the top of the pile.

Their victory against Liverpool last weekend was perhaps their most impressive result of the season so far, as they won 3-0 with goals from Erling Haaland, Rayan Cherki and Jeremy Doku. Over 2.5 goals has landed in each of Man City’s last four matches across all competitions, and they were beaten 4-2 by PSG midweek in an enthralling encounter. 

The hosts come into this clash as heavy favourites but Ipswich will fancy their chances of at least finding the back of the net. The Tractor Boys beat Fulham 2-1 last weekend, and they even scored twice against Arsenal in the EFL Cup in a 4-2 defeat.

Going into last weekend, Reading were stripped of 59% of their league goals with the players they had out injured - but they coped brilliantly.

Dispatching MK Dons 5-1 on their travels (winning the xG battle 0.44-3.64), demonstrating just how strong they are as a collective.

They now go into this weekend four points off the top of the league, travelling to rock-bottom Wigan.

Wigan picked up just four points this season, losing six of their opening eight league games.

Reading are top of the league on expected points, and have been far superior to Wigan in both boxes - who sit 17th by the same measure.

Wigan have lost 3/4 home league games so far, and haven’t scored in any of their last four in the league.

Fleetwood have been unsustainably overperforming defensively, they’ve conceded nearly seven xG more than their goals conceded tally (11 in 10 games) which is the biggest overperformance in the league.

Rotherham rank 8th for xG generated per match and have found the net in 8/10 League Two outings so far this season.

They’ve unsustainably underperformed to score only four from 6.6 xG across their five League Two away games, and face the 3rd-worst defence this weekend, with Fleetwood conceding 1.79 xG per game on average.

Their first choice striker Paul Mullin is not to blame, he’s been clinical with five goals from 3.88 xG - his finishing is not the reason for their underperformance.

The 2.63 about Rotherham scoring over 1.5 goals also appeals this weekend, as does Mullin anytime at 3.50.

There should be no shortage of goals when East Kilbride face Montrose in Scottish League One on Saturday. 

Both teams have been among the SPFL’s great entertainers this season, so over 2.5 goals looks an appealing option.

East Kilbride were involved in plenty of high-scoring games during last season’s promotion campaign, and this term has been no different. 

Indeed, 8 of their 10 league games this season have produced over 2.5 goals, including 4 of their 5 at home. 

Given the attacking intensity Mick Kennedy’s men play with, they are more than capable of covering the over 2.5 line themselves. 

They are also vulnerable at the back though, as shown by last weekend’s 2-2 home draw with Airdrie.

Montrose have been just as reliable, with over 2.5 goals landing in 9 of their 10 league games, including their win over East Kilbride in the reverse fixture in August.

Clyde look well placed to preserve their perfect home record in Scottish League Two by beating Annan on Saturday. 

The Bully Wee are joint top of the table and made it five home wins from five with a 2-1 victory over Dumbarton last weekend.

They will be confident of extending that run against an Annan side that are propping up the table.

Moreover, the Galabankies were thrashed 6-1 at home by Stranraer last weekend and have also lost their last three league games on the road. 

Each of those three away defeats came against a team currently fifth or lower in the table, which strengthens the case for Clyde to claim another home win.

Dumbarton tend to do their best work at home and look worthy of support on the double chance when they host Stirling Albion on Saturday.

All 12 points the Sons have earned this season have come at home, including victories in each of their last three matches at the Rock.

They also beat joint league leaders Clyde 2-1 in their first home game of the campaign.

Stirling have turned a corner recently with a couple of wins, but their only away success in the league came against bottom side Annan, and even that was a narrow 1-0 victory.

The Binos had lost each of their previous four away games prior to that success, including heavy defeats at Forfar and Elgin and a loss away to Edinburgh City in which they conceded seven goals.

Moreover, Steven Whittaker’s side have won just 3 of their 10 league matches this season, so it is difficult to see them claiming another victory against a Dumbarton side who have been so strong at home.

Unai Emery has a really strong reputation when it comes to developing strikers. He’s done it throughout his career, with Jackson being his latest project following Watkins’ departure to the Saudi Pro League over the summer.

Watkins is a good example of how Emery’s coaching can improve the movement and finishing of a forward. He was pretty similar to Jackson when Emery arrived at the club, an erratic striker who showed promise with getting into good positions.

Emery made him one of the best strikers in the league, and could do the same with Jackson. He’s scored in each of his two games since the international break, scoring against Brentford at Villa Park as well as netting a brace in the Champions League as Villa came away 6-0 winners over Fenerbahce.

Jackson will get chances against a Newcastle side who have only kept one clean sheet so far this season - and conceded four goals against Coventry last time out, allowing the newly promoted side to have six shots on target.

John McGinn has picked up two yellow cards across his six starts in the Premier League already this season, committing eight fouls across these matches (1.37 per 90).

McGinn also collected a yellow card over the recent international break for Scotland, as well as picking up a caution in Villa’s opening Champions League game against Club Brugge. That takes his total tally for the season to four cautions across all competitions - more than any other Villa player.

McGinn has never relied on his speed, so his role hasn’t changed much in this Villa side. He’ll be up against Lewis Hall here, who is an ideal player to draw a few fouls from the Villa captain seeing as Hall has won seven fouls across six starts in the Premier League this term (1.17 per 90).

I’m really not confident about Newcastle from what I’ve seen so far this season.

Mathias Jaissle wants to play a style of football which is intense and expansive, but Newcastle simply don’t have the players to play in this way - and Gonzalez stands out as someone who really doesn’t fit this system.

Gonzalez is a solid player, but this style of play will inevitably leave him having to cover way too much ground or make tactical fouls to stop opposition sides carving directly through Newcastle.

Gonzalez has committed four fouls across his six starts in the Premier League this season. His direct opponent here is set to be Emi Buendia - who will definitely cause the former City man problems having won 11 fouls across his six starts in the Premier League (2.12 per 90).

I’m expecting a close contest between Bournemouth and Sunderland on Sunday, but I think the visitors are more than capable of scoring at least once.

While Regis Le Bris’ side are not a team you would typically associate with scoring goals, they have blanked in just two of their opening six league games of the season.

Even more encouraging for this selection is that Sunderland have scored in all 3 of their Premier League away games this season, including a 5-3 defeat at Manchester City in their most recent top-flight road trip. 

The Black Cats also made the net bulge twice away at Torreense in the Europa League last time out.

As for Bournemouth, they have made a slow start to the season domestically and begin the weekend in the Premier League relegation zone.

Part of the Cherries’ early-season struggles can be attributed to their failure to keep a clean sheet in any of their six top-flight games so far, shipping five goals away at Chelsea last weekend.

The Black Cats tend to take a safety-first approach and are certainly not afraid to do the dirty work, something that is reflected in their card figures this season.

Indeed, Sunderland have collected an average of 1.83 cards per game across their opening six Premier League matches.

A deeper dive into those numbers shows that Sunderland have been shown at least 2 cards in away games at both Ipswich and Brentford this season.

They also picked up 3 bookings away at Torreense in the Europa League on Thursday.

Bournemouth’s home fixtures offer further support for this selection, with 2 of the 3 Premier League sides to visit the Cherries this season picking up at least 2 bookings and Sturm Graz collecting 3 cards at the Vitality on Thursday night.

Tyler Adams looks too big to ignore when it comes to committing at least two fouls during this contest.

Since being restored to the starting XI, the tough-tackling Bournemouth midfielder has been falling foul of the referee on a regular basis.

In fact, Adams has committed 11 fouls across his four Premier League starts this season.

Notably, 5 of those fouls came away at Chelsea last weekend, with the all-action American also picking up a yellow card.

He is likely to find himself operating in similar areas to Enzo Le Fee, Granit Xhaka and Noah Sadiki, all of whom have drawn averages north of 1.50 fouls per game for Sunderland in the Premier League this season.

This selection ties in nicely with the Adams foul bet, as I’m also keen to back Granit Xhaka to be fouled at least once.

The Sunderland captain almost always finds himself in the thick of the midfield battle, and Sunday’s clash with Bournemouth should be no different.

The combative Swiss midfielder has a real knack for winning fouls and cheap free kicks, having drawn an average of 2.00 fouls per game in the Premier League this season.

Upon closer inspection, Xhaka has been fouled at least once in all six of his top-flight appearances this term, earning his team multiple set pieces in three of those games.

He is likely to come up against the aforementioned Adams, while Bournemouth’s Lewis Cook is also prone to giving away fouls, further strengthening the case for this selection.

I think Hearts can score at least once against Celtic on Sunday.

The Jambos are a much more attack-minded outfit this season under new manager Wouter Vrancken, underlined by the fact they are currently the Scottish Premiership’s top scorers and have made the net bulge in each of their eight league matches.

Their European numbers offer further encouragement. 

Hearts scored in both legs of their Europa League qualifier against Benfica, drew 2-2 in both meetings with Rapid Vienna and played out a 1-1 draw with Nordsjaelland on Thursday night.  

While Celtic kept a clean sheet away at Motherwell last weekend, they have failed to do so in three of their last four home matches across all competitions.

That includes conceding at Parkhead to a Falkirk side struggling near the bottom of the table. 

What’s more, Celtic were soundly beaten 4-1 away to Benfica on Thursday night, while Hearts played at home, so the Jambos should come into this clash slightly fresher.

I’m fully expecting Hearts to try and take the game to Celtic, and I think four or more corners for the visitors is well within range.

The proactive approach Hearts have adopted under new boss Vrancken has coincided with an increase in the volume of corners they have earned this season.

The numbers back that up, with the Jambos averaging a sizeable 7.38 corners per game in the Scottish Premiership this season, while they forced 6 flag kicks against Nordsjaelland on Thursday night.

A closer look shows that Hearts have won at least 4 corners in each of their opening eight league games of the season.

Celtic are also strong in the corner department, but Rangers, Aberdeen and Dundee have all cleared the over 3.5 corner hurdle on their respective visits to Parkhead this season, further strengthening the case for Hearts to follow suit on Sunday.

Josh McPake has been one of the standout players during the early stages of the Scottish Premiership season, and I’m keen to back him to attempt two or more shots at Celtic Park on Sunday.

The newly capped Scotland international is usually deployed on the left wing, where he poses a threat both in front of goal and as a creator.

McPake likes to cut inside and get shots away, averaging an eye-catching 2.91 efforts per game across 7 Scottish Premiership appearances for Hearts this season. 

He has attempted at least 2 shots in each of his last 5 top-flight outings, including 6 against St Mirren last weekend.

What’s more, the Hearts ace fired off 5 shots against Nordsjaelland on Thursday night.

Celtic have looked shaky at the back all season, and I think their attack-minded approach could leave McPake with space to do damage.

The Celtic defender is always a threat from set-piece situations, and his shot numbers support that, with Scales averaging 1.34 shots per game across just six Scottish Premiership appearances this season.

A deeper dive into the numbers shows that the Irishman has registered multiple efforts in three of his last four top-flight outings, including 2 against Rangers in Celtic’s most recent home game.

He also got a shot away for the Republic of Ireland in their recent 1-1 Nations League draw at home to Israel.

Celtic will look to take the game to Hearts on Sunday, and their tendency to win plenty of corners at home should give Scales ample opportunity to try his luck again. 

I can see Dominic Calvert-Lewin bullying this fragile United backline here.

He’s been in fine form so far this season, netting three goals across his six starts in the Premier League from 11 shots (1.94 per 90).

That shot record may not jump off the page for a striker, but the data point I’m more focused on is the fact that Calvert-Lewin has found the target seven times from these efforts (64% shot accuracy).

Leeds’ system suits Calvert-Lewin really well, with the wingbacks allowing Leeds to send crosses into their target man. He scored 14 goals in the Premier League last season, averaging 1.12 shots on target per 90.

Calvert-Lewin took five shots when Leeds beat United 2-1 at Old Trafford last season, seeing two of those efforts find the target.

Bryan Mbeumo is leading the line for United at the moment with Benjamin Sesko still battling to reach full fitness following a reoccurrence of the injury that kept him sidelined in the early weeks of the season.

Mbeumo is more than capable of delivering in this role, he scored United’s opener against Tottenham last weekend and found the target in United’s defeat to Atletico Madrid during the week. 

Mbeumo has scored three goals across his six starts in the Premier League overall this season, taking 21 shots to reach this tally (3.50 per 90). He could be more accurate with his efforts, but has still seen eight of these shots find the target (1.33 per 90).

Jayden Bogle has been one of the most underrated players in the Premier League so far this season, and is flourishing for Leeds in his right wingback role - that sees him win a decent number of fouls.

Bogle was fouled once against Arsenal last time out, and is usually a target for opposition sides as he acts as one of Leeds’ main outlets to relieve pressure and look to find Calvert-Lewin the box.

Bogle has drawn nine fouls across his six starts in the Premier League this season (1.78 per 90). I’m particularly interested in Bogle’s battle with Diogo Dalot down that side of the pitch.

I’ve never rated Dalot, he’s been at United for far too long and still makes the same mistakes he made a few seasons ago. He’s committed seven fouls across just four starts this season (1.66 per 90) and will be tasked with tracking Bogle when he makes those runs forward to get Leeds up the pitch. 

Elland Road is one of the toughest places to visit in the Premier League. Leeds have the quality and ferocious home support to make this an awkward task for United, who have failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions.

Most recently, United fell to a 2-0 defeat against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League. Carrick tried a new shape in that game, lining United up in a 4-3-3 but their press was all over the place and Atletico managed to break the deadlock inside one minute - which set the tone for the rest of the game.

Leeds also put in a pretty good account of themselves against the reigning champions away from home last time out - managing five shots on target at the Emirates, which is not a shot volume that Arteta’s side concede regularly.

Leeds avoided defeat against United in both head to head meetings between the sides last season, with this fixture finishing 1-1 thanks to a swift equaliser by Cunha after Aaronsen had opened the scoring a few minutes prior.