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I make Norway favourites here, I’m still really not convinced by the balance of this Portuguese side despite the change in manager - and Norway have been so tough to beat at home over the last year as Italy and Denmark have recently found out.

Despite their general dominance at home, Norway do find keeping clean sheets quite difficult. They didn’t keep a single shutout during the World Cup and conceded two goals against Denmark last time out as they picked off their Nations League campaign.

Portugal’s backline isn’t exactly solid either, they conceded an xG of 5.80 across their five games at the World Cup and only kept out Colombia and Uzbekistan, with the former being very unlucky not to get on the scoresheet with an xG of 1.70 from 24 shots.

I do have a soft spot for this Greece side with all the young talent they have coming through, particularly in forward areas, but beating a side like Germany on the road is still probably a step too far for this young team.

Germany are really hard to beat on home soil, they won all three of their games during World Cup qualifying at home and only conceded one goal, netting 13. Those games saw them put six past Slovakia, four past Luxembourg and three past Northern Ireland.

Even in the last Nations League campaign, Germany won all three home games by an aggregate scoreline of 13-0 with this group being more competitive and featuring the likes of Netherlands, Hungary and Bosnia.

Jurgen Klopp does have work to do to bring this Germany side back to the pinnacle of the sport, but this is a good platform for him to earn his first win as Germany boss.

The Bengals are 2-0 on the season, with a 26.5 points scored average over these 2 games. This places them joint-10th top scorers in the NFL, with Pittsburgh (1-1) dead last with an 11.5 average. They also sit 31st in EPA/Play. Last time out, the Steelers scored just 3 points vs. the Pats.

Cincinnati sits joint-8th defensively, conceding an average of 16.5 points per game and shipping just 6 points vs. the Texans last time out. The Steelers are joint-8th too but conceded 20 points vs. the Pats in Week 2.

The Steelers looked weak against the Pats last time out, while the Bengals' defense is showing signs of improvement. Back the Bengals to beat the spread here.

It's a big spread, but the Chiefs have significantly improved on last season and are 2-0 so far in 2026. You also feel there's more to come from this Kansas City side, despite them scoring 33 against the Colts last time out in an impressive OT win.

With an average of 32.0 PPG, Kansas City sits 3rd top scorers in the NFL while the Dolphins are 2nd-bottom with just 13.0 PPG. Add to this the Patrick Mahomes factor, who passed for 382 yards and 3 TDs in that 33-30 win over Indianapolis, and it's hard to see Miami keeping up.

Indeed, if their 13 PPG average continues, the Chiefs would only need to score 24 here to beat the spread - they have scored 31 and 33 in their 2 games so far this season. If you're looking for a Bet Builder, Mahomes over 235.5 passing yards also looks good value.

I'm not thrilled about -7.5 - get below 7 if you can - but the Chargers (0-2) have had two poor defeats to Arizona (14-26) and Las Vegas (14-26) and are in somewhat of disarray.

Ranking 3rd-bottom in PPG (14.0) and 22nd in defense (26.0 OPP PPG), they face a Bills side that ranks as top scorers in the NFL thus far (38.5 PPG average). Buffalo has scored 77 points, with QB Josh Allen throwing for 334 yards and 2 TDs vs. Houston (36-31 win) and 248 yards and 3 TDs vs. Detroit (41-31 win) last time out.

If the 2-0 Bills can grab an early lead - as they did vs. Detroit when they were 14-0 up after Q1 and 27-10 up at HT - the Chargers may be forced into a passing game, which could favor Buffalo.

New England ranks joint-27th in PPG with 15.0, having scored 10 against Seattle and 20 against Pittsburgh last time out. Jacksonville, meanwhile, ranks 15th with 23.5 PPG but scored just 13 in Week 2 against the Broncos. The combined PPG = 38.5, 7.0 below this line.

The Pats, meanwhile, have the strongest defense in the NFL, conceding an average of just 8.0 PPG this season. This includes limiting Pittsburgh to just 3 points in Week 2. New England is 3rd strongest in team opponent yards per play (4.5) and 4th strongest in overall opponent yards per game (260.0).

Jacksonville sits joint-6th defensively, with an OPP PPG average of 15.0. They are mid-table in both opponent yards per play and opponent yards per game.

The combined OPP PPG = 23.0, 22.5 under this line, while this is expected to be a tight game with very little in it.

Everything points to the Under.

Henderson had 76 rushing yards, 16 rushing attempts and 1 TD in the Pats' 20-3 win over the Steelers in Week 2, marking his season debut in style. To get over 39.5 rush yards here, he'll only need 8-10 carries based on last week's numbers (4.8 Y/A) - he has had 10+ carries in 9/L10 regular season games. He has also gone over 39.5 rush yards in 9/L10 regular season games too.

In Week 3, he's up against a Jaguars' rushing defense that ranked 13th in the NFL going into Week 3 with a rush yards allowed average of 95.5 for 1 TD conceded. In Week 2, the Broncos had 104 rushing yards vs. the Jaguars and New England have a much stronger rushing offense (10th in NFL, 122.5 team rushing yards per game) than Denver (27th in NFL, 82.5 team rushing yards per game). This suggests Henderson could have a good afternoon vs. Jacksonville.

Doubs received for 96 yards in the Pats' Week 2 win over the Steelers and has received for over 42.5 yards in 4/L5 games overall. The Pats' WR is up against a weak Jaguars defense that ranks 22nd in the NFL in pass yards allowed average, with 236.5 and 2 TDs conceded.

In 2025, Jacksonville ranked dead last in Team Opponent Pass Attempts per Game (37.2) and although they rank joint-4th in 2026 (26.5), this is slanted by a strong Week 1 performance vs. the Browns. Against the Broncos last week, this stat jumps to 31.0. The jury is still out on the Jags' defense here.

In Doubs' one and only game vs. the Jaguars thus far, he received for 72 yards in a 30-27 win in October 2024.
The Pats are underdogs for his game, which suggests they'll adopt a more throwing approach, meaning Doubs could sail over this modest target.

Washington has gone over this total on both occasions this season, with 5 receptions against Cleveland and 7 receptions against Denver.

Washington has also had over 4.5 total receptions in all of his last 6 games, averaging 6.33 over this period. The Patriots may sit joint-5th in passing defense with a pass yards allowed average of 166, but they are weak against wide receivers who have gotten into space, which could allow Washington to capitalize here.

These were two of the most exciting nations at the World Cup and I can see a high scoring game between the two here with both having new managers.

France saw 3+ goals in five of their eight matches at the World Cup, bowing out at the semi final stage to eventual winners Spain. No side registered a higher xG than France at the World Cup (17.5), though admittedly this was slightly inflated by their crazy 6-4 defeat to England in the third placed playoff game.

However, Belgium can also contribute to a high scoring encounter having also impressed at the World Cup, to the surprise of some, seeing 3+ goals in four of their six matches at the World Cup with three of these games being knockout matches.

Furthermore, Belgium were the only side throughout the World Cup who managed to breach the backline of Spain - which shouldn’t be overlooked, they’ve got the attacking quality to cause some of these elite nations issues.

These sides met in the most recent Nations League campaign back in 2024, with that game seeing exactly three goals as France ran out 2-1 winners over Belgium as the away side with a combined xG of 4.18 on that occasion. 

I’m still far from sold on this Italy project, they’ve turned back to Roberto Mancini to try and inspire the sort of run that led them to the European Championship in his previous tenure - but they have to qualify for an international tournament first.

The rot within the Italian FA is far deeper than just the players not performing. Italy have neglected the youth pathways over recent years and have been left with several young players that haven’t developed as they would have in many other nations.

That said, Mancini has picked a very young squad for this international break which creates a different issue as Italy are almost trying to force the development of these young players all at once - without a set culture or direction like we see with Spain as the best example.

Türkiye underperformed at the World Cup (again) but still showed enough to convince me to back them to score here. They registered an xG of 6.60 across their three matches, scoring three goals in their final game against USA.

Türkiye scored 17 goals across six games during qualifying, including netting twice on the road against Spain.