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MK Dons have recovered from a sluggish, and slightly unlucky, start to the campaign to win each of their last five matches and look much more like the side many thought would threaten the playoff spots at the start of the campaign.

Paul Warne has seen his side score at least twice in each of their last four matches, netting 4+ goals in two of the three home games during this run against Doncaster and Bromley.

Aaron Collins has been the main source of goals - netting 13 goals across just 12 starts which is at least three more than any other player in the division. MK Dons have only lost one of their seven games at home this term, netting 15 goals in the process (2.14 per game).

Burton have only managed to win two of their seven away assignments this season, and are likely to be the latest team to come undone against this confident MK Dons side.

The away side have notably only kept two clean sheets across their 14 matches in League One, with these shutouts being quite fortunate against Plymouth (2.52 xG) and Bradford (1.49 xG).

These two sides played out one of the most memorable finales to a National League season last year, drawing 1-1 on the final day with both goals coming in added time to give York the title and automatic promotion by just two points - despite both sides clearing the 100 point mark.

Rochdale recovered well from that setback to earn promotion through the playoffs, and are looking to keep their place in the division with just three points separating them from the drop zone. We just need them to score here, which is something they’ve managed in six of their seven home matches.

They’ve avoided defeat in four of these games as well, netting 10 goals in total. York have settled in better to life in the EFL, but have crucially been really poor on the road - failing to win any of their seven matches and conceding 16 goals in the process (2.28 per game).

York have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their seven away matches this term, and the background surrounding this game should make it an entertaining watch. York are the better side, as shown by their league standing, but their away form acts as a leveller.

Salford have been near flawless at home this season, winning six of their seven matches and conceding just four goals in the process.

The only side to beat them at home this season was Chesterfield right at the start of the campaign, with that defeat being in a period of adjustment for Salford as they lost their opening three matches of the campaign.

They’ve since recovered really well to win each of their last five matches in League Two, and have some impressive underlying numbers to match.

Only Barnet (28) have scored more goals than Salford (25) in League Two, with the home side here also boasting the fourth best defensive record and having the third highest share of the ball.

Northampton are hovering above the relegation zone in League Two, winning just one of their six away matches this term.

I struggle to see how their scoring power troubling Salford here, they’ve only scored five goals across these games and are the lowest scorers in the division overall with just nine goals - five of which have come from set pieces.

Northampton have also lost their last three matches ahead of this one, including a bruising 4-0 defeat in the FA Cup to York City as the away side.

Crewe are one of six sides in League Two who are yet to lose a game at home, with Lee Bell’s side netting 12 goals across their seven matches (1.71 per game).

Crewe have managed to score in 14 of their last 15 matches across all competitions, with only Exeter keeping them out. Crewe were the away side on that occasion, which is where their scoring power is weaker (5 goals across seven matches).

Newport have failed to keep a clean sheet across their last six matches, and are notably one of only four sides in League Two yet to win a game on the road - conceding 11 goals across their seven away assignments (1.57 per game).

Crewe scored twice against Newport in this fixture last season from an xG of 1.85. We only need them to score once here, which looks more than plausible given their superior scoring power at home and Newport’s issues on the road.

Luke Woodhouse is worth a punt at 40/1 to win the Grand Slam.

He’s been the most improved player on the tour this year for me, and certainly is capable of putting together a decent run at a major now that he has shaken off some of the slight immaturity that previously affected his game.

This is a kind opening game for Woody against Tom Sykes, who will be making his debut at the Grand Slam after beating the likes of Tyler Thorpe, Adam Leek, Rob Owen and Tavis Dudeney in qualifying.

I think the nerves get to the debutant here. His highest average across qualifying was 91, and only Tavis Dudeney really gave him a proper game across those matches (92.61 - 5-4 defeat). 

Woodhouse outperforms Sykes in almost every metric over the last year, and also has way more experience on the big stage - where he’s looked increasingly confident, including beating Luke Littler on a big stage a few months ago.

He’s won a European Tour and Player Championship event this year, and has also reached the last 16 of two major tournaments. 

Woodhouse will play Ratajski next, which is obviously a much more awkward assignment with the experience and standard that the Polish Eagle regularly produces on the big stages - so this is pretty much a must win with only the top player from each group progressing. 

I think we see the version of Woodhouse we’ve seen all year here, and I really wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a deep run. 

At some point, Gerwyn Price’s luck has to change.

He’s probably been the best player overall in each of the last three big tournaments, but has lost in the final in two of them - once to Ross Smith, and once to Luke Humphries, despite having a commanding lead over Cool Hand in the World Grand Prix final.

There’s a multitude of reasons you could examine as to why Price is failing to get over the line, some point to his new focus outside of darts which Price references regularly in his interviews after losing two finals.

This group should be relatively straightforward for the Ice Man, only Luke Littler (1.25) and Luke Humphries (1.30) are shorter in the market to top their Grand Slam group than Price (1.33) who takes on Joe Hunt and Sebastien Bialecki.

Bialecki has the potential to cause a surprise, but this opening game should be routine. Joe Hunt qualified for the Grand Slam as a Challenge Tour winner, but has crucially never played on a stage this big.

His seasonal average sits just below 90, suggesting that even a below par Gerwyn Price would be able to beat him. His performance in the PC events this year has also been quite concerning, rarely getting past the Round of 64 in most of the events.

Price is 12/1 in places to win the Grand Slam, which isn’t bad for a player who has reached the final of the World Grand Prix and World Series this year as well as reaching the semi finals of the European Championship. 

Luke Woodhouse is worth a punt at 40/1 to win the Grand Slam.

He’s been the most improved player on the tour this year for me, and certainly is capable of putting together a decent run at a major now that he has shaken off some of the slight immaturity that previously affected his game.

This is a kind opening game for Woody against Tom Sykes, who will be making his debut at the Grand Slam after beating the likes of Tyler Thorpe, Adam Leek, Rob Owen and Tavis Dudeney in qualifying.

I think the nerves get to the debutant here. His highest average across qualifying was 91, and only Tavis Dudeney really gave him a proper game across those matches (92.61 - 5-4 defeat). 

Woodhouse outperforms Sykes in almost every metric over the last year, and also has way more experience on the big stage - where he’s looked increasingly confident, including beating Luke Littler on a big stage a few months ago.

He’s won a European Tour and Player Championship event this year, and has also reached the last 16 of two major tournaments. 

Woodhouse will play Ratajski next, which is obviously a much more awkward assignment with the experience and standard that the Polish Eagle regularly produces on the big stages - so this is pretty much a must win with only the top player from each group progressing. 

I think we see the version of Woodhouse we’ve seen all year here, and I really wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a deep run. 

Jermaine Wattimena has a real opportunity in this group against a player in Lisa Ashton who has never won a game at the Grand Slam across her five appearances and an out of sorts Alan Souttar.

Wattimena is as short as 1.11 to win this game, and it’s clear to see why when you look at the underlying numbers. All the metrics point to a comfortable Wattimena victory, and I think he also wins the 180 battle - which brings this single to a more appealing 1.57.

Wattimena is not a sensational 180 hitter, but has maintained a rate of 0.26 180s per leg over the last year which is decent enough. Lisa Ashton rarely hits maximums at the same rate, averaging just 0.11 180s per leg. 

Even if the game extends to seven legs, which would likely be a 5-2 win for Wattimena, Ashton would still come out without a 180 if she plays to that seasonal rate of maximum hitting - so two maximums is likely to be enough for the Dutchman to win that battle as well as the match.

This is such a tight group, with these two joined by the ever unpredictable Andrew Gilding in Group F.

There’s not a clear favourite for this group, Searle is the shortest in the odds (2.20), but I wouldn’t be in a rush to back him in a format this short and with Searle being one of those players who can average 100+ in one game and stoop down to a low 90s in the next.

Manby will see this as an opportunity. Unlike most of the lower ranked qualifiers in this event, Manby has performed and beaten big names on a big stage - with his run in the World Championship last year being seriously impressive on debut. 

We need this game to have at least seven legs, so we’re essentially backing both players to win at least two legs each. That’s basically backing Manby to hold his throw if you look at the odds for this game, which he’s more than capable of doing.

They’ve played each other twice this year, with Searle coming out a 6-3 winner on both occasions. The latest meeting was in a European Tour event too, showing again how Manby can certainly be competitive on this stage.

Jonny Clayton has been a solid performer all season, but I think he needs a big trophy to be in the conversations he’d like to be in around the Premier League next year. 

He’s got a kind start here against the final player to qualify for the Grand Slam in Anton Ostlund, who hails from Sweden and qualified via the Nordic & Baltic Championships. 

Ostlund has taken part in two Player Championship events this year, right at the start of 2026, and lost in the first round on both occasions to Willie O’Connor and Kevin Doets, being whitewashed 6-0 by the latter. 

I never worry about Clayton in games like this, he’s got the big stage experience and will know that he’s much better than his opponent in the majority of metrics. 

He’ll also have the foresight to know that this group is likely to become a straight shoutout between himself and Rob Cross, who hasn’t been at his best this year but is always capable of pulling off an upset in this format. 

Clayton has gone out to the eventual finalist in the European Championship, the World Grand Prix and the World Series Finals - suggesting that it almost always takes a top player to beat him, and Ostlund will find it very difficult to reach that level. 

At some point, Gerwyn Price’s luck has to change.

He’s probably been the best player overall in each of the last three big tournaments, but has lost in the final in two of them - once to Ross Smith, and once to Luke Humphries, despite having a commanding lead over Cool Hand in the World Grand Prix final.

There’s a multitude of reasons you could examine as to why Price is failing to get over the line, some point to his new focus outside of darts which Price references regularly in his interviews after losing two finals.

This group should be relatively straightforward for the Ice Man, only Luke Littler (1.25) and Luke Humphries (1.30) are shorter in the market to top their Grand Slam group than Price (1.33) who takes on Joe Hunt and Sebastien Bialecki.

Bialecki has the potential to cause a surprise, but this opening game should be routine. Joe Hunt qualified for the Grand Slam as a Challenge Tour winner, but has crucially never played on a stage this big.

His seasonal average sits just below 90, suggesting that even a below par Gerwyn Price would be able to beat him. His performance in the PC events this year has also been quite concerning, rarely getting past the Round of 64 in most of the events.

Price is 12/1 in places to win the Grand Slam, which isn’t bad for a player who has reached the final of the World Grand Prix and World Series this year as well as reaching the semi finals of the European Championship. 

MK are in good form, winning each of their last three.

That includes scoring 10 in their last two home games, producing 4.62 xG combined in those games.

I’ve got to mention Aaron Collins, he netted six across those two home wins and he has 13 in 13 league games.

Burton are just one point behind MK in the table but expected points shows they have picked up five more points than they should have.

Their metrics are poor, especially away, where they average just 1.26 xG but 1.62 xGA.

MK have lost just one home game this season, whereas Burton have just two away wins.

Salford haven’t tasted defeat in the league since the end of August and they’re on a run of eight straight league victories.

They’ve also been superb at home, winning six from seven.

Their underlying data is particularly strong at home, where they create an average of 1.70 xG and restrict their opponents to just 1.19.

Northampton are also quite stern defensively, but their major issue is creating chances and scoring goals.

The Cobblers have averaged just 1.18 xG in League Two this season.

As a result, they are the league’s lowest scorers with nine goals in 13 games and they’ve won just one of their last six in all competitions.

The tide has turned for The Cumbrians, with Rob Elliot winning the fans over and guiding them to eight games unbeaten in all comps, with seven wins and an impressive win over Salford in the FA Cup last week.

This had been coming, with Carlisle averaging the highest xG in the National League at 1.83 and sitting top of the expected points table, despite being 18 points behind Boreham Wood.

Boston have picked up a couple of wins but they did come against the bottom two in the division.

On the road, The Pilgrims have managed just eight points from 21 available and they average a huge 1.89 xGA.