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Our next stop on the train takes us to St James’ Park, and I’m focusing on Gravenberch to win at least one foul here.

Gravenberch was one of the few Liverpool players whose level didn’t really drop last season with one of his best assets being his ability to find a way out of tight spaces.

Gravenberch won 42 fouls across his 34 starts in the Premier League last season (1.26 per 90), including winning a foul in this fixture as Liverpool came away 3-2 winners.

Newcastle may have lost Tonali and Guimaraes from their midfield but have notably brought in Aladji Bamba from Monaco as a replacement.

We can expect Bamba to be just as aggressive as Tonali and Guimaraes given that he committed 23 fouls in Ligue 1 last season across just 10 starts (2.54 per 90).

Newcastle committed 17 fouls in this fixture last season, also picking up a red card. This game has become quite intense in recent seasons given the transfer sagas and cup final between the sides last year - so I wouldn’t be surprised to see another game with a high foul count.

Both of these sides have made positive starts to the season, avoiding defeat in each of their opening two matches of the campaign.

Fortuna Sittard have seen BTTS in both of their matches so far, holding PSV to a 2-2 draw on the opening day away from home before beating a newly promoted Cambuur side 3-1 in front of their own fans.

Alkmaar saw BTTS last time out as they came away 4-1 winners over Utrecht on the road in a game that saw them rack up an xG of 2.10. Their last visit to this stadium produced seven goals, with Fortuna Sittard coming away 4-3 winners on that occasion.

Fortuna Sittard scored 28 and conceded 29 goals at home in the Eredivisie last season, working out to an average of 3.35 goals per game.

I was impressed with both of these sides on the opening weekend of the EFL as both managed to collect three points with QPR beating Portsmouth 3-1 and Bolton winning 2-1 at home against Preston at home.

Both teams were quite entertaining in registering those victories as well, Bolton racked up an xG of 1.10 from 15 shots while QPR had an xG of 2.07 from 13 shots as the away side.

QPR have seen BTTS in five of their last six matches ahead of this clash, including their EFL Cup tie against Millwall which ended 1-1. They saw 77 goals across their 23 home games in the Championship last term, working out to an average of 3.34 goals per game.

West Ham gave up a two goal lead on the opening weekend as Burnley came from behind to earn a point against the Hammers thanks to a brace from Zian Fleming.

That was probably a good experience for West Ham to have as it shows how competitive the Championship can be, but I do expect them to register their first win of the campaign against a Charlton side who are going to pick up most of their points at home this season.

Charlton only managed to win four of their 23 away matches in the Championship last season, notably only scoring 21 goals across these games. 

I’m not sure that this will be enough firepower to trouble a West Ham side who have just added Joel Piroe to their attacking options, alongside the talent of Bowen, Castellanos and Soloman.

Real Madrid’s frontline looks frightening this season with Mbappe, Vinicius and Bellingham now joined by Yan Diomande. 

Jose Mourinho’s side should be able to get off to a strong start here against an Espanyol side that they beat 2-0 on the road back in May, thanks to a brace from Vinicius Jr. 

Real Madrid have won six of the last seven head to head meetings between the sides, and come into this clash having avoided defeat in pre-season - winning four of their five matches.

Espanyol failed to beat the likes of Coventry, Middlesbrough and Burnley during their pre-season campaign.  Only four sides in LaLiga picked up fewer points than Espanyol at home last season, with Manolo Gonzalez’s side notably only scoring 21 goals across their 19 games - only two sides scored fewer goals at home in the Spanish top flight.

Heerenveen have seen BTTS in five of their last six matches across all competitions, seeing BTTS & No Draw in four of these games.

Each of the last five head to head meetings between these sides has seen BTTS, with both league meetings last season seeing BTTS & No Draw.

Zwolle conceded 50 goals on the road in the Eredivisie last season, more than any other side in the division - but they did manage to score 23 goals across their 17 matches. 

Fortuna Sittard have seen BTTS in both of their Eredivisie matches so far, winning one of these games.

Alkmaar ran out 4-1 winners over Utrecht on the road last time out.

This fixture produced seven goals last season as Sittard came away 4-3 winners over Alkmaar. 

Cheltenham have seen BTTS & No Draw in both of their competitive matches so far this season, losing in the EFL Cup to Charlton before winning 2-1 against Rotherham.

Swindon’s home games were very entertaining in League Two last season, scoring 38 goals (1.65 per game) and conceding 27 (1.17 per game). 

Swindon saw BTTS & No Draw in both of their friendly matches before the campaign, and in the first round of the EFL Cup as they lost 3-2 to Cardiff.

Derby have seen BTTS in each of their last three matches, seeing BTTS & No Draw in two of these games.

Cardiff scored in the last minute against Wrexham last time out to earn a point, they’ve seen BTTS & No Draw in two of their last three matches.

These sides faced off in January last year in a game that ended 2-1 to Cardiff, with both sides registering an xG in excess of 1.0 (2.27-1.24).

Ross County have made an excellent start to the season, and I think they can maintain that momentum when they travel to Airdrie on Saturday.

Stuart Kettlewell's side have quickly put any concerns over a relegation hangover to bed, topping a Scottish League Cup group that included top-flight outfit Dundee.

They carried that form into the league, winning each of their opening two fixtures before producing another impressive result last weekend by beating Dunfermline 2-1 away from home to book their place in the League Cup quarter-finals.

Airdrie, meanwhile, are still searching for their first league victory after drawing their opening two matches before being hammered 4-0 by Hamilton last weekend. 

That setback will hardly fill the Diamonds with confidence ahead of the visit of a Ross County side that are playing with plenty of confidence at the moment.

I really fancy goals here, I’ve taken 2.5 in my SPFL acca too - but I’m bringing it down a level here for this double since the target odds are evens.

There's usually no shortage of goalmouth action when East Kilbride are involved, and I expect more of the same when they travel to Montrose on Saturday.

Mick Kennedy's side have adapted well to life in Scottish League One, with their games proving just as goal-heavy as they were last season. 

Over 2.5 goals has landed in two of their opening three league games, while all four of their Scottish League Cup matches also cleared that line. 

The case for overs is strengthened further by Montrose's own record, with each of their opening three league games producing at least three goals. 

That includes a 5-0 home defeat to Hamilton on the opening day, while Stuart Petrie's side also pushed title favourites Ross County close in a 2-1 defeat a fortnight ago. 

That suggests the hosts can play their part in what has the makings of another high-scoring affair.

There's usually no shortage of goalmouth action when East Kilbride are involved, and I expect more of the same when they travel to Montrose on Saturday.

Mick Kennedy's side have adapted well to life in Scottish League One, with their games proving just as goal-heavy as they were last season. 

Over 2.5 goals has landed in two of their opening three league games, while all four of their Scottish League Cup matches also cleared that line. 

The case for overs is strengthened further by Montrose's own record, with each of their opening three league games producing at least three goals. 

That includes a 5-0 home defeat to Hamilton on the opening day, while Stuart Petrie's side also pushed title favourites Ross County close in a 2-1 defeat a fortnight ago. 

That suggests the hosts can play their part in what has the makings of another high-scoring affair.

I'm keen to back Hamilton to pick up another win when they travel to East Fife on Saturday.

Darian McKinnon's men have hit the ground running in Scottish League One, taking maximum points from each of their opening three matches. 

They thumped Montrose 5-0 on the road on the opening weekend and put four past Airdrie last Saturday to move to the top of the table. 

The Accies also fired in five against Elgin in the League Cup before the league campaign got underway, so they should head to Bayview brimming with confidence.

As for East Fife, they have made a mixed start to the campaign, picking up one win and a draw before losing 2-1 away to Peterhead last weekend.

The Fifers face a serious step up in class this weekend, and I fancy Hamilton to bank all three points at Bayview.

Ross County have made an excellent start to the season, and I think they can maintain that momentum when they travel to Airdrie on Saturday.

Stuart Kettlewell's side have quickly put any concerns over a relegation hangover to bed, topping a Scottish League Cup group that included top-flight outfit Dundee.

They carried that form into the league, winning each of their opening two fixtures before producing another impressive result last weekend by beating Dunfermline 2-1 away from home to book their place in the League Cup quarter-finals.

Airdrie, meanwhile, are still searching for their first league victory after drawing their opening two matches before being hammered 4-0 by Hamilton last weekend. 

That setback will hardly fill the Diamonds with confidence ahead of the visit of a Ross County side that are playing with plenty of confidence at the moment.

I think Dunfermline can get on the scoresheet at least once when they travel to Livingston in the Scottish Championship on Saturday afternoon.

Neil Lennon's side have made a mixed start to the season, but they have generally been reliable in front of goal, netting 12 times across their opening seven games. 

Notably, Dunfermline secured a 1-0 victory away to top-flight St Mirren during the League Cup group stage.

Livingston, meanwhile, were comfortably beaten 2-0 by Partick Thistle in their last outing and could consider themselves fortunate not to have suffered a heavier defeat. 

The Lions also conceded when playing host to Partick during the League Cup group stage, and Dunfermline should provide a similar test on Saturday.

Neither Morton nor Arbroath have had much to shout about during the opening weeks of the season, but I fancy the visitors to come away from Cappielow with something to show for their efforts.

It has been a miserable start to the campaign for Morton, who lost all 4 of their Scottish League Cup group stage games before coming away empty-handed from each of their opening 2 league fixtures. 

There is also no shortage of issues behind the scenes, with Ian Murray admitting that the club could be forced to forfeit matches given how stretched his squad is.

Arbroath are also searching for their first league win of the season, but they at least got themselves on the board with a goalless draw against Inverness last time out. 

The Red Lichties also picked up a couple of wins in the League Cup, so I think they can avoid defeat in Greenock on Saturday afternoon.

Both sides scored two or more goals last weekend, MK drew 2-2 at Oxford, while Huddersfield beat AFC Wimbledon 3-0 at home.

Huddersfield league debutant Derensili Sanches Fernandes netted a brace in the first 16 minutes, we'll learn a lot about whether he and the Terriers were great or if Wimbledon were poor after this test at MK Dons.

MK conceded 1.83 xG at Oxford and are a newly-promoted side after all.

Both teams are dripping with attacking quality and could well be competing for automatic promotion this season.

Huddersfield saw BTTS in the 3rd-most games of any League One side last season, scoring in 39 of 46, and they should do so at Stadium MK, while being challenged defensively a lot more than they were in their opener.

Peterborough saw both teams score a lot last season, the 5th-most times in the division.

I expect a similar record this season, along with another tough campaign looking over their shoulders.

They generated 1.11 xG in their 2-0 loss at Bradford last weekend, while Mansfield beat Doncaster 2-1.

Three of the last four meetings between the sides have seen over 2.5 goals, with BTTS landing in two of those.

Peterborough were the 2nd-highest scorers in the bottom half last season, and they actually outscored Mansfield, who finished 10th.

They only failed to score in 10 of 46 games and will retain that attacking mindset with Luke Williams in the dugout, who prioritises in-possession quality and doesn't have the defensive nous in his ranks to keep Mansfield out.

Peterborough kept just five clean sheets from their 23 League One home games last term.

I want to oppose both defences here, I can't see either of them keeping a clean sheet.

Rochdale had a kind draw for their first game back in League Two, but were comprehensively beaten 3-0 at relegation-favourites Newport.

Crawley finished the game with nine men as they lost 1-0 at home to Crewe.

Crawley conceded in 17 of 23 away games last season and appear just as chaotic this time around.

They did create chances against Crewe, and had the better of the first half before the red cards.

Rochdale are odds-on favourites to win the game and should bounce back, after all, they did score 92 goals in the National League (including the play-offs) last season.

I want to oppose both defences here, I can't see either of them keeping a clean sheet.

Rochdale had a kind draw for their first game back in League Two, but were comprehensively beaten 3-0 at relegation-favourites Newport.

Crawley finished the game with nine men as they lost 1-0 at home to Crewe.

Crawley conceded in 17 of 23 away games last season and appear just as chaotic this time around.

They did create chances against Crewe, and had the better of the first half before the red cards.

Rochdale are odds-on favourites to win the game and should bounce back, after all, they did score 92 goals in the National League (including the play-offs) last season.

York have been League Two’s main characters so far.

They played out an absolute humdinger to beat promotion-favourites Bristol Rovers 3-2 last weekend. 

Despite the impressive win they looked vulnerable throughout and were carved open with alarming ease for Rovers’ opener.

Rotherham generated 2.20 xG in their 2-1 loss at Cheltenham last weekend, and Alex Bruce’s men will expect their quality to show against a side they were two divisions higher than last season.

The formula worked for York last weekend even though they gave up opportunities, it may be their best chance of getting a result at Rotherham this weekend, but it's likely to force another goal-laden game in the process,

This is the highest-rated Eredivisie game for Both Teams to Score on Saturday according to my Goals Sheet.

Fortuna Sittard have seen BTTS land in both of their first two games of the season.

They've actually seen over 3.5 goals in both of those games, and scored two or more in each of them.

AZ Alkmaar won 4-1 at Utrecht last weekend and will hope for similar fortunes on their travels this time around.

When they went to Fortuna Sittard last season, they lost 4-3.

This bet landed after 19 minutes that day, with seven goals scored and just under 5.5 total xG generated.

Kevin Schade was another player who bagged a brace in Brentford’s 7-0 victory against Frankfurt, and the Bees have done well to retain the services of the highly rated German for the upcoming campaign. In addition to scoring twice, Schade also provided two assists, meaning he was directly involved in four of Brentford’s seven goals.

With eight goals and three assists to his name in the Premier League last season, Schade was one of Brentford’s standout attacking performers and will hope to build on those numbers.

His pace makes him particularly dangerous in transition, especially against a Tottenham side expected to defend with a relatively high line under De Zerbi. Spurs have a new-look backline, who might experience some teething problems, making this an ideal opportunity for Brentford, and Schade in particular, to capitalise.

Brentford’s business in the transfer market tends to be shrewd, and their most notable addition over the summer has been 24-year-old Mamadou Sangare from Lens, signed for just short of £40 million. The Mali international scored his first goal for the club against Frankfurt, and he looks set to partner Vitaly Janelt in the centre of midfield.

Sangare was a magnet for drawing fouls during his time at Lens last season, with his average of 1.7 fouls drawn per 90 ranking among the highest figures in the squad. He likes having the ball at his feet and regularly looks to carry it forward into advanced areas. Tottenham are likely to go with a midfield trio of Gallagher, Sandro Tonali and Rodrigo Bentancur here, which is an ideal matchup to target Sangare.

Tottenham had massive issues with injuries last season, which makes the signing of Marcos Senesi look like incredibly positive business.

The former Bournemouth centre-back featured in 36 of their 38 Premier League matches during the previous campaign before joining Spurs after his contract expired. In that time, he was booked eight times, highlighting how he can sometimes be drawn out of position, and forced into a cynical tackle. 

Senesi seems like a nice fit for De Zerbi’s system - the Argentine international likes to step out of the backline and get tight to opposition forwards. It may take some time for him to fully adjust to the new manager's system, especially against a side like Brentford who can be effective in transition.

Pedro Porro only returned to training last week after helping Spain win the World Cup, but there is a good chance he will be ready to start against Brentford despite missing the majority of Tottenham’s pre-season. The Spaniard played a pivotal role for La Roja over the summer and scored twice en route to lifting the World Cup trophy.

Porro has proven just how efficient he can be in attacking areas, and he regularly looks to get forward and join Tottenham’s attacks. He averaged 1.18 shots per 90 across all competitions last season, with that figure rising significantly to 1.71 after De Zerbi took charge.

The Italian’s system allows his fullbacks to move into advanced positions, while Porro is also a threat from direct free-kicks and efforts outside the box. If Brentford sit deep out of possession, Porro should be able to pick up some promising advanced positions.

Both of these sides have made positive starts to the season, avoiding defeat in each of their opening two matches of the campaign.

Fortuna Sittard have seen BTTS in both of their matches so far, holding PSV to a 2-2 draw on the opening day away from home before beating a newly promoted Cambuur side 3-1 in front of their own fans.

Alkmaar saw BTTS last time out as they came away 4-1 winners over Utrecht on the road in a game that saw them rack up an xG of 2.10. Their last visit to this stadium produced seven goals, with Fortuna Sittard coming away 4-3 winners on that occasion.

Fortuna Sittard scored 28 and conceded 29 goals at home in the Eredivisie last season, working out to an average of 3.35 goals per game.

I think Dunfermline can get on the scoresheet at least once when they travel to Livingston in the Scottish Championship on Saturday afternoon.

Neil Lennon's side have made a mixed start to the season, but they have generally been reliable in front of goal, netting 12 times across their opening seven games. 

Notably, Dunfermline secured a 1-0 victory away to top-flight St Mirren during the League Cup group stage.

Livingston, meanwhile, were comfortably beaten 2-0 by Partick Thistle in their last outing and could consider themselves fortunate not to have suffered a heavier defeat. 

The Lions also conceded when playing host to Partick during the League Cup group stage, and Dunfermline should provide a similar test on Saturday.

Night In Vegas has a lifetime Top 3 Hit Rate of 75% across four starts.

We stray way from York here to follow a hugely competitive sales race at Newmarket, and we're siding with Night In Vegas under Callum Hutchinson. We saw the extreme of what can happen when you put a group-calibre horse in a sales race with Sun Goddess at York this week. Whilst Night In Vegas is no Sun Goddess, he is still a strong Group 2 horse being dropped significantly in grade.

Night In Vegas' 3rd at Goodwood last time out is by far the best form on offer in this contest, where he finished closely behind Adday of Scarlett, a three time Group 2 runner up and a very impressive Aiden O'Brien two year old in Man's Best Friend, who at the time of writing is a 7/2 joint favourite for the Prix De Morny (Group 1) tomorrow.

Night In Vegas has the perfect conditions and calibre to win nicely here today at Newmarket.

Adonius has a lifetime win-hit rate of 75%, and has won 100% of their two starts over today's ground conditions.

Adonius lost his unbeaten record in a group three contest at Goodwood last time out, but was far from disgraced, finishing second behind Pershaada, who went on to run creditably in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes this week. He also had a number of today's rivals comfortably behind him that day, including El Floridita and Sale Shark, as well as Listed winner and Lowther 7th Crownbreaker.

Adonius was a little keen that day at Goodwood and based on his history he should well improve back down in class and on favourable conditions. All this rain can only be deemed a positive for a horse that won by seven lengths on debut on Soft Ground before following up on Good to Soft and Good.

I think this son of Soldier's Call will have too much for this field and should win well if settling properly here at York for promising jockey Kaiya Fraiser.

Sunderland ranked fifth in the league for total yellow cards accumulated last season, averaging 2.16 per game. That number rose to 2.26 when playing away from home, where they typically exerted much less control on games. After their successful previous campaign, the Black Cats have had a quiet summer transfer window, so their approach is expected to remain very similar under Regis Le Bris. 

Ipswich were also a decent side to target for cards last season - they ranked tenth in the Championship, averaging 1.93 yellows per game. Considering the Taractor Boys finished in the automatic promotion spots, that figure is relatively high, and it is expected to rise as they return to the Premier League. This is a clash between two aggressive sides, and cards are a target.

Sunderland owe a lot of their success from last season to Robin Roefs - the Dutchman was incredibly reliable in between the sticks, and he accrued the third-most saves of any top flight keeper. His save percentage of 70.1% was on par with the likes of Gianluigi Donnarumma, Emi Martinez and Matz Sels, which speaks volumes of his quality. Roefs had an average of 3.13 saves per 90, rising to 3.63 when playing away from home. 

Ipswich have added plenty of attacking quality to their ranks over the summer, and they should be fired up on their return to the Premier League, especially at Portman Road. Last season, the Tractor Boys had an average of 16.5 shots per game at home, with 5.65 on target, which shows just how effective they can be when it comes to generating chances. 

New signing Thomas Meunier is still yet to play his first minutes in a Sunderland shirt, and he is a doubt to feature at Portman Road due to a back injury.

He is one of a few Sunderland defenders doubtful to feature this weekend. Omar Alderete picked up an injury while playing for Paraguay at the World Cup, while Nordi Mukiele is also struggling at the moment. The pair both seem to be nearing a return, but they didn’t feature during recent pre-season matches, so Luke O’Nein is likely to continue alongside Dan Ballard at the back. 

O'Nein only featured sporadically last season, and he had an average of 1.76 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions. He should find duels against Emersonn this weekend, who averaged 2.39 fouls per 90 playing for Toulouse in Ligue 1 last season.

After suffering relegation to League One with Leicester last season, Abdul Fatawu completed a move to Ipswich over the summer, meaning he will play in the Premier League instead.

The Ghanaian international contributed nine goals and seven assists last season, which was more goal involvements than anyone else in the Leicester squad. He is a tricky customer to contain on the right wing, and is expected to slot straight into the Ipswich starting eleven. 

Fatawu had an average of 2.71 shots per 90 last season, despite Leicester struggling near the bottom of the league, and he was incredibly consistent at clearing this line. Fatawu can be quite predictable in his play, looking to cut inside onto his stronger left foot, but he is so difficult to stop, and he usually fancies his chances from distance. 

Spurs picked up 101 yellow cards last season, with no other Premier League side reaching triple digits. They also added another five red cards, highlighting just how poor their disciplinary record was across the campaign. That was only heightened when De Zerbi arrived, as Tottenham collected at least three yellow cards in all seven league matches under the new manager.

Tensions were understandably high as Spurs battled to avoid relegation, but De Zerbi also encourages his teams to be aggressive in their press, to win the ball back as quickly as possible. He adopted a similar approach at Marseille, who ranked top of the Ligue 1 charts for total yellow cards last season.

Tottenham finished last season on a high, and their performances definitely improved under De Zerbi. He recorded three wins, two draws and two defeats in his seven matches in charge, helping Spurs secure their Premier League status after a difficult campaign. They also showed much more attacking intent under the Italian, which translated to an increase in corners.

Spurs managed at least five corners in six of their seven Premier League games under De Zerbi. The only miss came in a 2-1 defeat against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, but they still went close after forcing four corners. De Zerbi likes his sides to play quite direct, vertical football, utilising overloads in wide areas when they have spells of settled possession.

Conor Gallagher was a notable contributor to Tottenham’s disciplinary record, as he started all seven Premier League matches under De Zerbi and was booked in two of those appearances. The former Chelsea midfielder is strong in his challenges, and he averaged 1.81 fouls per 90 for Spurs last season after returning to London from Atletico Madrid in January.

Gallagher appears to be rated highly by De Zerbi, having played a big role for the Lilywhites in pre-season. The 26-year-old also played 81 minutes against Hoffenheim in Tottenham’s final friendly, suggesting he is being prepared to start at the Gtech Community Stadium. Despite starting in more of an attacking midfield position, Gallagher will be tasked with leading the press, and limiting the amount of time the Brentford midfielders get on the ball.

Jan Paul van Hecke looks set for a significant role at Tottenham this season, especially considering he previously worked under De Zerbi at Brighton. Following his summer move, Van Hecke played the full 90 minutes against Hoffenheim and he should partner Marcos Senesi at the back, with Micky van de Ven yet to return to full fitness.

That means Van Hecke should find himself involved in plenty of physical duels against Igor Thiago, which is a matchup to keep an eye on. When Brentford played Brighton last season, Van Hecke was fouled twice at the Amex Stadium and once at the Gtech Community Stadium. Igor Thiago is an incredibly physical centre-forward, who is the target when the Bees play long. Van Hecke should have plenty of duels to contest this weekend. 

Igor Thiago was one of the Premier League’s most impressive performers last season, and his tally of 22 goals was only bettered by Erling Haaland. Doubts emerged after Brentford lost Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa, but Thiago stepped up to replace much of their attacking output. That earned the Brazilian a call-up to his national team for the World Cup, which speaks volumes about the quality he possesses.

Thiago averaged 2.3 shots per 90 in the league last season, which is not a particularly high figure, but more than 51% of his attempts hit the target. That highlights how clinical he tends to be when opportunities fall his way inside the box. He also scored twice during Brentford’s emphatic 7-0 victory over Frankfurt in their final pre-season friendly, so he is a player full of confidence at the moment.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall finished last season with eight goals and four assists under his belt from 31 Premier League appearances, which was an impressive return.

The 27-year-old had an average of 1.33 shots per 90 in the league overall, rising to 1.66 when playing at the Hill Dickinson Stadium. Considering he featured in a deeper midfield role for parts of last campaign, those numbers are strong. 

Christian Norgaard and Hayden Hackney have joined Everton over the summer, meaning David Moyes has plenty of midfield options now, and Dewsbury-Hall looks set to play in an advanced role.

The left footer is adept at picking out gaps in opposition defences, and when chances fall to his feet, he tends to be accurate. 

Morgan Gibbs-White bagged himself 18 goals in 53 appearances across all competitions last season, making that his most prolific campaign to-date by quite some distance. He scored 15 times in 37 Premier League appearances, despite it being quite a turbulent season for his side. 

Oliver Glasner is now at the helm, and Forest have seemingly retained the services of their captain for the upcoming campaign, which is a massive boost for them. Gibbs-White had an average of 2.45 shots per 90 across all competitions last season, rising to 2.9 when playing at the City Ground where he was incredibly consistent at getting over this line. 

In fact, Gibbs-White recorded at least two shots in 20 out of 22 home starts last season, and one of the misses came against Man City. This matchup against Leeds should be much easier.

Igor Thiago was one of the Premier League’s most impressive performers last season, and his tally of 22 goals was only bettered by Erling Haaland. Doubts emerged after Brentford lost Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa, but Thiago stepped up to replace much of their attacking output. That earned the Brazilian a call-up to his national team for the World Cup, which speaks volumes about the quality he possesses.

Thiago averaged 2.3 shots per 90 in the league last season, which is not a particularly high figure, but more than 51% of his attempts hit the target. That highlights how clinical he tends to be when opportunities fall his way inside the box. He also scored twice during Brentford’s emphatic 7-0 victory over Frankfurt in their final pre-season friendly, so he is a player full of confidence at the moment.

Enzo Le Fee looks set to feature in an advanced midfield role for Sunderland this season, having previously played primarily on the left, which has given him a much larger role on the ball. He had an average of 1.13 fouls drawn per 90 last season, rising to 1.26 when playing away.

Ipswich have a new-look starting eleven, and it is likely to be Sasa Lukic to start alongside Sindre Walle Egeli in the double pivot. The former had an average of 2.85 fouls per 90 across all competitions for Fulham last season, picking up ten yellows in his 30 appearances.

The latter was also amongst the duels, with 1.46 fouls per 90 for Ipswich in the Championship, making this a great matchup to target Le Fee.

Dewsbury-Hall won both penalties for Everton during their final pre-season matches, and Iliman Ndiaye converted on each occasion. Following the expiry of Jack Grealish’s loan deal, Ndiaye has adopted a much larger role for the Toffees in the final third. 

The Senegalese international averaged 1.39 shots per 90 in the Premier League last season, which is nothing to write home about, but 51% of those efforts hit the target. That is impressive accuracy, and it shows how he tends to test the goalkeeper when opportunities fall his way. There is every reason to expect his shot figures to increase this campaign, and the fact that he appears to be the designated penalty taker is helpful for this selection.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall enjoyed a successful debut campaign at Everton last season, and he looks set to continue in an advanced midfield role. He was one of their standout performers during pre-season and managed to win a penalty against both Newcastle and Lille, with his movement into the box causing problems for opposing defenders.

The Englishman averaged 1.64 fouls drawn per 90 in the Premier League last season, with that figure rising to 1.94 when playing at home. Dewsbury-Hall typically played with much more confidence in front of the Everton supporters, and Moyes gives him the freedom to carry the ball into advanced areas.

Everton should be able to enjoy spells of possession against a Palace side adapting to a new manager, so Dewsbury-Hall should see plenty of the ball.

Following the departure of Lacroix, Chris Richards has been pushed into a central role, with Jaydee Canvot and Chadi Riad expected to operate alongside him. There is plenty of uncertainty surrounding Palace at the moment, especially with Pierre Sage at the helm, but he appears set on retaining the 3-4-3 formation used by his predecessor.

The Moroccan centre back featured sporadically last season and sometimes looked rusty when called upon. He started eight matches across all competitions during the previous campaign and was carded in three of those. Riad also averaged 1.39 fouls per 90, showing that he is not afraid to step forward and make a challenge.

Riad could find himself defending against Johnson or Iliman Ndiaye in the wide areas, two pacy players who will try and get the beating of him.

The Toffees look in a better position than Palace heading into this clash, and David Moyes will hope his side can start the season on the right foot.

With that being said, there is still a problem to address at right-back following the departure of Seamus Coleman. Everton’s back four could otherwise remain similar to last season, with Jordan Pickford continuing between the sticks.

|The England goalkeeper was kept busy in both head-to-head meetings last season, and he played an important role in Everton taking four points. He racked up five saves at the Hill Dickinson Stadium before making another six in the reverse fixture at Selhurst Park.

Palace are likely to set up with a front three of Jean-Philippe Mateta, Yeremy Pino and Ismaila Sarr - a dangerous trio who should keep Pickford busy.

Everton have an excellent head-to-head record against Palace, and they are unbeaten in 11 meetings dating back to the 2021/22 season. The Toffees prevailed by a 2-1 margin in this fixture last season before taking another point from Selhurst Park in a 2-2 draw.

The main focus here is Palace’s business in the transfer window. They have lost a key centre-back in Maxence Lacroix to Chelsea, while Brennan Johnson has also departed to join Everton. Daniel Munoz is attracting interest as well, and another departure would be a significant blow for the Eagles.

Everton’s transfer window has been much more positive. They have permanently secured the services of Tyrique George and Merlin Rohl, while Hayden Hackney, Christian Norgaard and Johnson have also joined.

The two Premier League meetings between these sides last season were entertaining, producing eight goals in total. Forest secured a 3-1 victory when Leeds visited the City Ground, but Daniel Farke’s men got their revenge by the same scoreline at Elland Road. BTTS landed comfortably in both encounters, with neither defence able to contain the opposing attack.

Leeds come into their opening fixture as slight underdogs, but their pre-season performances have been encouraging, with a 4-0 win against Augsburg last time out. They have every reason to approach this match with confidence, rather than sit back and absorb pressure. Because of that, we could get another open contest, similar to what we saw last season when these teams met.

James Trafford is expected to make his competitive Leeds debut after completing a club-record move from Manchester City. The 23-year-old struggled for regular Premier League minutes at the Etihad but still featured 17 times across all competitions, helping City secure a domestic cup double. A move to Elland Road should allow him to establish himself as a first-choice goalkeeper. 

Forest tend to play with far more attacking intent at the City Ground, where they are buoyed by the home crowd. The hosts will be determined to make an impression in their new manager’s first competitive game, so Leeds may have to withstand sustained periods of pressure. The hosts have more than enough talent in the final third to cause Trafford problems this weekend.

James Justin looks set to operate at left wingback for Leeds this season, with Gabriel Gudmundsson ruled out for the start of the campaign through injury.

The 28-year-old averaged 1.14 shots per 90 in the Premier League last season, and he even managed to find the back of the net twice. His first goal came against Everton when playing in this left wingback role - Justin racked up five shots in that match, and was a huge threat in the final third.

He always looks to arrive late in the box, and is more inclined to cut inside from the left onto his stronger right foot, which creates favourable shooting angles. 

Justin played in a left wingback position for the final four matches of last season, and he recorded a shot in each of those.

It’s no secret that Glasner likes his wingbacks to press forward and play a significant role in attacking areas, which should suit Neco Williams perfectly. The Welsh international was voted Forest’s Player of the Season last campaign after contributing two goals and three assists, and his energy on the flank makes him an ideal fit for Glasner’s preferred system.

Williams had an average of 1.29 shots per 90 in the Premier League last season, which is already impressive for a defender, but that figure rose even further to 1.51 when playing at the City Ground. Towards the back end of the previous campaign, Williams played a massive role in the final third, and he racked up 20 shots in the final seven Premier League home matches alone.

Ibrahim Sangare picked up a yellow card in both head-to-head meetings against Leeds last season, committing three fouls in each match. He was one of Forest’s main offenders in terms of infringements, finishing the league season with an average of 1.82 fouls per 90, and 2.35 fouls per 90 at home. 

His usual midfield partner, Elliot Anderson, has completed a switch to Man City, but Sangare has committed his future to the club by signing a new contract. The Ivory Coast international looks set for a massive role in midfield, and he should have more defensive work to do this season following Anderson’s departure. 

Leeds have plenty of players who like to carry the ball in midfield, like Noah Okafor and Brenden Aaronson, who should keep Sangare busy again here. 

The most recent meeting between these sides saw BTTS as NY Red Bulls came away 3-1 winners over Chicago on the road. 

Chicago have seen BTTS in each of their last four matches, notably winning all of these games. Chicago’s nine away games in the MLS have seen 30 goals (3.33 per game), showing how comfortable the away side can be in high scoring games.

NY Red Bulls have seen 35 goals across their 10 home games in the MLS this season (3.5 per game). They’ve seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions, and this is a good matchup for goals at both ends again.

Inter Miami are chasing down Nashville, the current pace setters in the Eastern Conference, as they attempt to defend their title. Inter Miami have only lost one of their eight home matches in the MLS  this term and have a good opportunity here to end a patchy run of form.

Inter Miami came away 4-2 winners over Toronto when the sides faced off back in May. They were pretty dominant in that victory, with 60% possession and seven shots on target. They welcome a Toronto side with the worst away record in the Eastern Conference, winning just one of their nine matches on the road.

Toronto have only scored seven goals across these games, which is the lowest return of any side on the road in the Eastern Conference this season. This isn’t enough firepower to trouble an Inter Miami side who have scored 21 goals across their eight home games this campaign. 

Orlando have been one of the best sides to back for goals at both ends in recent weeks, with each of their last six matches seeing BTTS.

Their 10 home games have produced 33 goals (3.3 per game) and they take on a Real Salt Lake side who are coming off the back of a seven goal thriller against Dallas, which they lost 4-3.

Real Salt Lake have only managed to win one of their nine away matches in the MLS this term, but have scored 11 goals across these games - and should be encouraged by Orlando’s recent issues at the back which is accompanied by a lack of clean sheets.

Cincinnati have only lost one of their last five matches coming into this game and beat New York at home last time out to carry real confidence into this fixture.

By contrast, Seattle enter this game in a really poor run of form having lost four of their last five matches - notably conceding twice in all four of these defeats. This recent record suggests a real defensive vulnerability about the away side which is unlikely to change here.

Cincinnati have won seven of their 10 home matches in the MLS this season, only New England (25) and Nashville (28) have picked up more points at home in the Eastern Conference than Cincinnati this season.

The head-to-head meetings between these sides last season were intriguing. It finished 4-3 to Villa at the Amex Stadium before Emery’s men completed the league double with a much more cagey 1-0 victory in the reverse fixture. Both games were evenly contested for long periods, and Brighton collected at least two cards in each encounter.

The Seagulls received three cards in the home fixture, all of which arrived during the first half, before again clearing this line at Villa Park. Aston Villa drew the second-most cards of any Premier League side last season. Meanwhile, Brighton ranked fourth in the division for total cards accumulated. Those two trends match up nicely here, especially in what should be a competitive opening fixture.

As well as cards, corners have been a consistent market in recent meetings between these teams. The seven-goal thriller at the Amex Stadium produced 11 corners, while there were another 12 when they met at Villa Park. This selection landed in both head-to-head encounters last season, despite the two matches playing out very differently.

Both sides are quite similar in that they like to have spells of settled possession, but can also be devastating on the counter, and play direct at times. There will be no shortage of talent on show at the Amex Stadium this weekend, and chances are expected to be available at both ends of the field, which makes corners a target.

Danny Welbeck is another player who joined Chelsea over the summer, so Georginio Rutter looks set to lead the line for Brighton. The Frenchman usually likes to drop into deeper midfield areas to get on the ball and carry it forward - he is quite similar in a sense to Matheus Cunha. Rutter averaged 1.81 fouls drawn per 90 in the Premier League last season, which shows how difficult he can be to dispossess.

The 24-year-old was given a regular starting role up front for Brighton during pre-season, which suggests he will lead the line against Aston Villa. Unai Emery likes his side to be aggressive in midfield to win the ball back quickly, so Rutter draws a good matchup here.

Morgan Rogers has departed for Chelsea, while Johan Manzambi is not yet back to full fitness, so Emi Buendia looks set to start in the advanced midfield position against Brighton. The Argentine international performed well against PSG in the Super Cup final, and he finished the game with three fouls drawn, despite facing arguably the strongest midfield in Europe.

Buendia typically sees much more of the ball when operating centrally, where he can drift into pockets between the opposition’s midfield and defence. He averaged 2.3 fouls drawn per 90 last season, making this line appealing if he continues in the number ten role. Brighton will have to be aggressive in midfield to try and limit the amount of space and time Buendia gets on the ball.

Diego Gomez finished last season with an average of 2.32 fouls per 90 across all competitions, which was the highest figure in the Brighton squad. That intense defensive style of play earned him nine yellow cards from just 26 Premier League starts, and one of those bookings came in this fixture against Villa last season. 

Villa’s squad has changed significantly over summer, but they are still not short on players willing to get on the ball, and try to beat their marker. Diego Gomez should find duels against Emi Buendia in particular, and that is a matchup to keep an eye on. If Diego Gomez starts on the right wing, he should find duels against Alejandro Garnacho.

Vinicius hit triple digits for shots last season, registering exactly 100 in La Liga, an average of 3.20.

Nothing new for the Brazilian, who has averaged over 3.00 per 90 in each of his last three La Liga campaigns. He also hit this line in three of his four World Cup matches.

He had seven shots against Espanyol last season, with this selection landing in both the home and away fixture.

I often think the fanfare around Vini distracts from the fact he is a truly elite player with devastating attacking output. He was impressive at the World Cup and I expect him to carry that on into the domestic season.

Bernardo is a player I will always back for fouls. He’s like a pitbull in the middle of the park and loves getting stuck in, especially in physical games.

He averaged above one foul per 90 last season in the league for Manchester City and has averaged around one per game since 2017.

I’d argue he’ll have more defensive responsibility at his new club and he’ll be lining up against the likes of Javi Hernandez, who drew two fouls in Espanyol’s opener. In-fact, each of Espanyol’s midfield three drew at least one foul.

Dolan landed this selection on opening day as Espanyol committed a hefty 17 fouls against Levante. He averaged 1.38 per 90 last season.

The Englishman was operating from the right hand side, which will put him up against Vinicius Junior and Alvaro Carreras.

Those two were the first and fifth most fouled players in the Madrid squad last season and drew just shy of 4.00 fouls per 90 between them.

Vinicius contributed 2.59 of those fouls drawn and Carreras 1.27. The right hand side of this Espanyol side are in for a tough evening and god forbid someone like Jude Bellingham gets on the pitch and drifts into those areas.

That brings me neatly on to the final selection. If Dolan doesn’t bring someone down, then they’ll be facing up to right-back Omar El Hilali, who also committed two fouls in Espanyol’s first game of the season.

The Moroccan averaged 1.40 fouls per 90 for Espanyol last season, which is a decent number anyway, but even more of an appealing pick when you factor in Vinicus and Carreras with those excellent aforementioned fouls drawn numbers.

In the home fixture last season, El Hilali racked up three fouls and was carded. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat of that on Saturday night, especially after the heavy-handed performance Espanyol put in on matchday one.

Semenyo was one of City’s better players in the Community Shield last week, notably having more touches in the opposition box (12) and more shots (3) than any other player on the pitch.

One of those three attempts did find the target and drew a save from David Raya, with Semenyo being one of the best players in the Premier League when it comes to shot accuracy.

Semenyo scored 17 goals in the Premier League last season from 83 shots (2.33 per 90), seeing 41 of these efforts find the target (1.15 per 90). This is a shot accuracy of 49%, which is really impressive for this level and shows a consistency to Semenyo’s game when taking aim.

He’s facing up against his former club here, giving him extra motivation to find the target as City seek out their first win of the season.

Rayan caused City real problems when the sides met at the Vitality Stadium a few months ago, taking two shots and seeing one of these efforts come back off the post.

Rayan really impressed in the second half of last season, settling in instantly after making the move from Brazil to register seven goal contributions across 13 starts - with five of these being goals.

Rayan took 28 shots across these games (2.25 per 90) and will be even more important to Bournemouth in the early parts of this campaign given that Kroupi will be out for the first few months of the season.

One of Bournemouth’s best traits under Iraola was getting shots away as quickly as possible when winning the ball high up the pitch. 

Bournemouth ranked first in the Premier League during Iraola’s tenure for high turnovers leading to shots, and I don’t think Marco Rose will change this part of Bournemouth’s game that much as their system proved to be very effective.

Bournemouth drew two saves from Donnarumma when the sides last met, and forced four saves from the Italian when Bournemouth travelled to the Etihad last season. He was forced into making 2.29 saves per 90 in the Premier League overall last term. 

I’ve already touched on some of the defensive issues which may be present at City as they transition from Guardiola to Maresca, and Bournemouth can profit from that to test Donnarumma on at least two occasions.

Bournemouth averaged 5.58 corners per game in the Premier League last season, winning 3+ corners in 89% of their matches.

The Cherries racked up 3+ corners in both head to head meetings with Manchester City last season, winning seven when the sides last met and four in their defeat at the Etihad earlier on in the campaign.

Manchester City conceded 3.82 corners per game in the Premier League last season. This is quite a low line for Bournemouth to cover and I expect corners to be just as crucial as they were in the Premier League last season.

Bournemouth have scored in each of their last five head to head meetings against Manchester City, including both league clashes last season - with Bournemouth actually being the side to end City’s title hopes by holding them to a 1-1 draw at the Vitality Stadium.

Both sides have new managers at the helm and I think we’ll see that reflected in this game with some defensive issues at both ends of the pitch which can open up the match and give both sides the chances they need to find the back of the net.

Manchester City conceded three goals against Arsenal in the Community Shield last week, which is a good example of the transition that will need to be made under Maresca, and also failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their pre-season friendly matches. 

Similarly, Marco Rose’s side have seen BTTS in all three of their friendly matches ahead of the new campaign, and the early signs suggest that he will be just as bold in his approach as Iraola was during his time as Bournemouth boss.

Napoli’s tartan talisman averaged some huge numbers in Serie A last season. He hit 101 shots in the ‘26/26 campaign, an average of 3.26 per 90 minutes.

34 of those hit the target, averaging out to 1.10 per 90 minutes. That put him top of the team charts for both shots and shots on target, by a considerable distance.

McTominay plays very high for Napoli and is tasked with arriving late and scoring goals, which he’s done to serious effect since his move from Man United.

Another big factor is McTominay’s size. At 6”4 he is a focus of indirect free-kicks and corners.

He had seven shots, two on target and scored across his two meetings with Genoa last season.

Not to be confused with the PSG playmaker, Vitinha is a chaotic Portuguese forward plying his trade at Genoa.

Vitinha draws fouls at an exceptional rate, he was impeded an average of 2.75 times per 90 last season.

At odds of 1.53, there’s a small bit of value here. The implied odds suggest a 65% chance of this landing, however the stats suggest that the real chance is a little higher at around 76%.

Vitinha drew four fouls across his two meetings with Napoli last season, landing this selection in the home match, where he was fouled three times.

The chaos with Vitinha also relates to him committing fouls. He averaged 1.34 per 90 minutes in last season’s Serie A campaign and also started this season off by committing two fouls against Serie B side Ascoli - a far weaker opponent than the ones they’ll face in this fixture.

Numerous Napoli defenders average close to one foul drawn per game and their top performers in that stat are largely central midfielders. Vitinha does like to drop in behind the striker sometimes and when out of possession, he will chase players down deeper in the field.

He may clash with someone like Lobotka, who drew an average of 1.67 fouls per 90 minutes last season for the visitors.

Following on from the above, Vitnha’s eagerness to press and get stuck in will see him chasing down Napoli’s centre-halves, one of which is Kosovan international Rrahmani.

The big defender drew an average of 0.80 fouls per 90 last season which is pretty solid for someone playing his position.

He only played one of the two fixtures against Genoa last season and it was the away game, this selection landed in that match.

Serie B opponents Ascoli saw their centre-halves fouled three times in the Coppa Italia against Genoa, with each centre-half being fouled.

Napoli will see more of the ball than Ascoli did, especially in defence.

Marcus Tavernier was quietly one of Bournemouth’s best players last season. His performances never quite got the recognition they deserved due to the presence of Kroupi and Rayan, but he is a quality player and recorded 11 goal contributions in the Premier League last term.

Tavernier took 70 shots in the Premier League last season (2.30 per 90), seeing 24 of his efforts find the target (0.79 per 90). 55% of his efforts came from outside the box last season, with Tavernier also having a role on free kicks for Bournemouth.

Only the injured Kroupi scored more goals for Bournemouth in the Premier League last season than Tavernier (7) - with two of these goals also coming from the penalty spot, suggesting that Tavernier will also fill that role in the absence of Kroupi. 

Alex Scott has continually been linked with a move away from Bournemouth this summer, but the Cherries have managed to keep him for now and he is set to play an important role in this encounter.

Scott is very tidy on the ball, but I’ve been more impressed with his growth out of possession over the last few seasons at Bournemouth. Iraola has made him a very hardworking player when Bournemouth are without the ball, but this does come with the slight drawback of Scott being a bit reckless with his challenges.

Scott picked up five yellow cards in the Premier League last season, averaging 1.42 fouls committed per 90. He should maintain that level of tenacity this campaign, particularly against the likes of Elliot Anderson (2.16 fouls won per 90) and Phil Foden (1.34 fouls won per 90). 

It’s going to take Elliot Anderson some time to grow into his role at Manchester City following the departure of Rodri to Barcelona.

Anderson is clearly a player with the ability to be world class, but I think we’re going to see him struggle at times to hold the midfield together from a defensive point of view - especially when City lose the ball in moments of transition.

Anderson collected more yellow cards than any other Nottingham Forest player in the Premier League last season (8), notably averaging 1.54 fouls committed per 90.

William Osula has shown that he can be an effective striker at this level having netted seven goals across eight starts in the Premier League last season.

It took him a while to settle at Newcastle, but he looks to be Matthias Jaissle’s preferred number nine ahead of the new season - notably scoring from five shots against Strasbourg in Newcastle’s final pre-season friendly, seeing two of those efforts find the target. 

Osula is still only 23, so he can develop even further this season if he does get consistent playing time as the main striker. Osula achieved his seven goal tally from 12 shots on target last season (1.33 per 90) and came off the bench to score in this fixture the last time the teams met at St James’ Park.

Cody Gakpo took more shots than any other Liverpool player last season (87 - 2.85 per 90), finishing the campaign as Liverpool’s second top scorer in the Premier League with seven goals behind Hugo Ekitike (11).

Gakpo saw 21 of these efforts find the target (0.69 per 90) and notably found the target in both of his appearances during pre-season for Iraola’s side, netting against Como last time out. 

Liverpool should be quite a fun side to watch under Iraola, he encourages his teams to press high and get shots away quickly after winning the ball back in dangerous areas. I think Gakpo will benefit from this style, and can see Liverpool’s general shot output improving this term. 

I can see this being a very chaotic game between two sides that have had a lot of change over the summer and landed on two managers that want to play with intensity and press high up the pitch.

Bournemouth were one of the most entertaining sides to watch in the Premier League under Iraola, but his style does take some time to be effective and it’s quite a swing from the more controlled approach that Liverpool utilised under Arne Slot.

Liverpool’s pre-season games were a good example of this, they gave up two goal leads on two occasions against Leeds and Monaco - with both of those games seeing at least five goals in total.

The recent head to head meetings between these sides also offer promise for goals. Six of the last seven head to head clashes have seen 3+ goals, with the exception of one 2-0 Liverpool win at Anfield a few seasons ago.

Another stat to keep an eye on with Liverpool this season is their card count. Iraola’s Bournemouth side ranked within the top three sides in the Premier League for both fouls and cards in each of the last two seasons - and that is no accident.

Those tallies are a direct result of Iraola’s style of play, which involves an intense press and committing multiple tactical fouls to protect the backline. Liverpool ranked 19th for yellow cards in the Premier League last season (1.5 per game), but that will definitely increase under Iraola’s instructions.

This game has developed into a bit of a rivalry too, Liverpool committed 15 fouls and picked up three yellow cards in this fixture last season - collecting two cautions after just 25 minutes of action. Each of Liverpool’s last three trips to St James’ Park have seen them collect at least two cards.

I see this being quite a chaotic game between two sides that usually have entertaining games and have two new managers at the helm that may lead to some defensive frailties at both ends of the pitch.

Newcastle have lost quite a few key players over the summer, but still have decent firepower with the likes of Osula, Barnes and Wissa. They’ve seen BTTS in all six of their friendly matches ahead of the new campaign, with four of these games seeing BTTS & No Draw.

Andoni Iraola will allow his side to be a lot more energetic and expressive than Slot did, but this change will take some time and the Liverpool boss has already spoken about how his side lose energy in the second half of matches, giving up two goal leads on two occasions during pre-season. 

Cambuur fell to a 3-1 defeat against Fortuna Sittard on the road last time out, and I can see this game ending in a similar fashion as they take on a Feyenoord side that was held by Go Ahead Eagles last time out.

Cambuur are a newly promoted side to the Eredivisie, so matches like this against the established big teams in the division are a bit of a free hit. They scored 42 goals at home in the Eerste Divisie last season (2.21 per game), only drawing five of their 19 matches.

Feyenoord only drew five of their 17 away games in the Eredivisie last season, notably conceding 21 goals alongside the 31 goals they scored. I can see the away side collecting all three points, but a clean sheet may be beyond their capabilities. 

Bournemouth have scored in each of their last five head to head meetings against Manchester City, including both league clashes last season - with only one of these games ending level.

Both sides have new managers at the helm and I think we’ll see that reflected in this game with some defensive issues at both ends of the pitch which can open up the match and give both sides the chances they need to find the back of the net.

Manchester City conceded three goals against Arsenal in the Community Shield last week, which is a good example of the transition that will need to be made under Maresca, and also failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their pre-season friendly matches. 

Similarly, Marco Rose’s side have seen BTTS in all three of their friendly matches ahead of the new campaign, and the early signs suggest that he will be just as bold in his approach as Iraola was during his time as Bournemouth boss. Only one of these games ended level, offering promise for BTTS & No Draw again here. 

PSV haven’t been concerned about keeping clean sheets in recent seasons in the Eredivisie, often trusting their attacking options to get them over the line. 

They’ve seen BTTS in each of their opening league matches of the campaign, seeing BTTS & No Draw last time out as they won 2-1 against Excelsior on the road. 

They take on a Groningen side that have also seen BTTS in both of their league matches so far, winning both games against Utrecht and Den Haag. 

Each of the last three head to head meetings between the sides has seen BTTS & No Draw, with PSV coming out on top on all three occasions.

Barcelona kick off their LaLiga campaign against an Elche side that they tend to enjoy playing against, winning each of the last 14 head to head meetings between the sides - stretching all the way back to 2014.

Barcelona came away 3-1 winners in this fixture last season, racking up an xG of 6.44 from 30 shots on that occasion. They limited Elche to just nine efforts, laying the foundations for another strong performance in this clash.

Hansi Flick now has the likes of Rodri, Cancelo, Adeyemi and Gordon to call upon following Barcelona’s summer business and I think they’ll get off to a strong start here against an Elche side who can’t quite seem to find a way to beat Barcelona.

PSG will be eager to get back to winning ways in their opening game of Ligue 1 after losing out on the French Super Cup to Lens, who registered a 1-0 victory despite conceding 23 shots and and xG of 1.71.

Luis Enrique’s side boasted the strongest away record of any side in Ligue 1 last season, winning 11 of their 17 away games and netting 33 goals in the process. No side scored more goals on the road than PSG in the French top flight last season, and that firepower may prove too much for Rennes to handle.

PSG have won four of the last five head to head meetings between the sides. They did lose this fixture last season, but the underlying numbers from that game would suggest that Rennes were quite fortunate to come away 3-1 winners, losing the xG battle (3.58-1.36). 

I can see this being a very chaotic game between two sides that have had a lot of change over the summer and landed on two managers that want to play with intensity and press high up the pitch.

Bournemouth were one of the most entertaining sides to watch in the Premier League under Iraola, but his style does take some time to be effective and it’s quite a swing from the more controlled approach that Liverpool utilised under Arne Slot.

Liverpool’s pre-season games were a good example of this, they gave up two goal leads on two occasions against Leeds and Monaco - with both of those games seeing at least five goals in total.

The recent head to head meetings between these sides also offer promise for goals. Six of the last seven head to head clashes have seen 3+ goals, with the exception of one 2-0 Liverpool win at Anfield a few seasons ago.

PSV got back to winning ways against Excelsior last time out after only getting a point in their opening fixture of the campaign at home against Fortuna Sittard, which was a real surprise for the defending champions.

They have another favourable fixture to build momentum here against a Groningen side that they have beaten in each of the last five head to head meetings between the sides, most recently coming away 2-1 winners on the road with an xG of 2.44.

PSV also put four goals past Groningen in this fixture last season. They tend to be really dominant at home having lost just two of their 17 matches in front of their home fans last term, winning 13 of these games and scoring more goals than any other side in the division at home (58).

The 20-year-old was on fire on his league debut for West Brom last week, grabbing a goal and an assist as the Baggies' late rally sealed a 2-1 win at Norwich.

Morgan was fouled twice at Carrow Road, and actually committed four fouls himself.

He scored twice in their EFL Cup first round win at Rotherham, and looks to be one of the second tier's breakout stars for 2026/27.

He was fouled 3.12 times per 90 on loan at Peterborough in League One last season, and won 2.71 fouls per 90 in a loan spell at Gillingham in League Two the season before that, so he's becoming even harder to tackle legally as he goes up the leagues.

Flemming's come-and-get-me plea should continue this weekend.

The former Millwall forward will be the subject of transfer interest in what remains of the window, but he's fully committed to Burnley when he's on the pitch, and Hayen spoke glowingly of his commitment to the cause in his press conference this week.

The 28-year-old scored a brace against West Ham last time out and will be the Clarets' chief attacking threat at the Hawthorns.

Flemming's shooting ability is above the level, and if he stays this summer, he might not always be backable for a shot on target even in a bet builder.

West Brom conceded seven shots on target at Norwich last weekend.

Edwards has been a fouls magnet across his whole career, and that is even more clear when playing in the second tier.

He was fouled 2.31 times per 90 after joining Burnley in their promotion from the division in 2024/25 and won two fouls in their opener against West Ham, even though the Hammers only committed nine fouls in the game.

West Brom committed 13 at Norwich last time out, and they'll have to be pro-active to engage with Burnley off the ball.

The Clarets will have the majority of the ball in the Black Country, which should give Edwards plenty of opportunities to pick up the ball and look to progress it, potentially in tight spaces as well, where he is so strong.

Price has a big future on the international stage, for Northern Ireland, and in English football, and he does not shy away from his out-of-possession duties.

The 22-year-old has improved his physicality in recent years and has averaged just below one foul per game in recent seasons.

There'll be a lot of work to do off the ball in this encounter, and Price may find duels with Hannibal Mejbri in Burnley's fluid midfield.

Mejbri won 3.36 fouls per 90 in the Premier League last season, and uses his body really smartly to win free kicks.

Price's engine will be crucial for West Brom to live with Burnley here, and he committed a foul in their opening weekend win at Norwich.

Both sides looked dangerous going forward in the opening weekend.

West Brom generated 1.85 xG at Norwich, while Burnley posted 2.10 as they pegged West Ham back to draw 2-2.

James Morrison has found a good balance at the top of the pitch to support Aune Heggebo, with Isaac Price and Morgan being two of the most capable ball-carriers in the division.

It's too early to judge what Nicky Hayen's style is going to be in his Burnley tenure, but the club do seem to be moving away from the dour defensive football that Scott Parker implemented last time they were at the level.

Palmeiras sit three points clear at the summit of the Brazilian Serie A and will look to maintain their title push as they take on a Vasco De Gama side who currently sit in the relegation zone.

Palmeiras have only lost one of their 11 home games in the league this season, winning seven of these matches. They’ve only conceded eight goals across these games which will be a real concern for Vasco De Gama given that they are yet to win a single game on the road this season.

Palmeiras have won each of the last three head to head meetings between the teams as the home side to nil - and a similar outcome is likely here. 

It’s a new era at AC Milan with Ruben Amorim leading the club into the new season. He’s probably a bit relieved that he managed to secure his first win with his new side in pre-season over Manchester United last time out, and they should have enough quality to beat Torino here.

Torino finished mid-table last season, failing to win 12 of their 19 home matches. AC Milan did have an inconsistent campaign, but notably had the second strongest away record of any side in the division - only Inter Milan, the eventual champions, picked up more points on the road than AC Milan in Serie A last season.

AC Milan only lost three of their 19 away games in this spell, beating Torino both home and away by the same scoreline (3-2). 

Copenhagen are enjoying a remarkable run of form at the moment having avoided defeat in each of their last 14 matches across all competitions, winning 11 of these games.

The away side have scored more goals across their opening three matches than any other side in the Superligaen (10), with two of these games being away from home.

Viborg have made a decent start to the campaign themselves, but do tend to struggle against Copenhagen having lost each of the last three head to head meetings between the sides. 

Atletico Madrid started the season well with a 2-0 win over Malaga in front of their own fans, notable for a goal from their new signing - Kang In Lee.

Atletico Madrid only lost three of their 19 home games in LaLiga last season, winning 15 of these matches. They scored 39 goals across these games (2.05 per game), with only Real Madrid (16) and Barcelona (10) conceding fewer goals in front of their own fans.

Villarreal did have a good season last year but have changed their manager over the summer, which is likely to lead to a bit of a transition process which was evident last week as they dropped points to a newly promoted Racing Santander side.

Lille beat Angers in both head to head meetings between the sides last season, coming away 1-0 winners on both occasions.

Lille have actually beaten Angers to nil in each of the last four head to head meetings between these two teams - giving them a slight psychological edge ahead of this encounter.

Lille finished third in Ligue 1 last season, behind Lens and PSG, notably boasting the second best away record in the division. 

They scored 28 goals across their 17 away matches (1.64 per game), which is a scoring power that Angers will struggle to match given that they only scored 18 goals across their 17 home games last campaign. 

Joao Pedro has enjoyed a really strong pre-season for Chelsea under Xabi Alonso as he looks to build on a successful debut campaign for the Blues, in which he scored 15 Premier League goals.

He took 73 shots in the top flight last season (2.46 per 90), seeing 28 of these efforts find the target (0.94 per 90). 

These numbers may feel a bit low, but his underlying data picked up massively in the second half of the campaign when he was actually trusted as a number nine, with Enzo Maresca always reluctant to deploy him in that role.

Joao Pedro should only improve further under the guidance of Xabi Alonso, with Palmer and Rogers now operating behind him in a dangerous front three. 

Joao Pedro scored seven goals across five appearances during pre-season, and notably had the summer to rest after not being called up to Brazil’s World Cup squad. 

I’ve always been quite defensive of Rob Sanchez. He’s definitely got errors in him, but these are often overly scrutinised and he doesn’t get the same level of attention when he actually puts in a good display. 

He was forced into making 98 saves in the Premier League last season, working out to an average of 2.90 saves per 90 with a save percentage just shy of 70%. 

He was called into action three times in this fixture last season, and Chelsea’s pre-season campaign would suggest that there are still some defensive issues for Alonso to iron out.

Sanchez made three saves in Chelsea’s final pre-season friendly against Real Sociedad, and will be tested by the likes of Garcia, Bobb, Kevin and King in this clash.

One area of Chelsea’s game that may take some time for Alonso to properly address is how reckless the Blues have been when it comes to their disciplinary record.

Chelsea ended last season with eight red cards, four more than any other team in the Premier League. They also ranked second for yellow cards, with only Tottenham picking up more cautions than the Blues. Chelsea have actually ranked in the top two teams for yellow cards in each of the last three seasons.

This won’t be a quick fix, much of these temperament issues are down to Chelsea’s young squad and this is a perfect game for that issue to tide to the fore given that it is a West London derby. 

Chelsea picked up 2+ cards in both head to head meetings with Fulham in the Premier League last season, picking up four cautions (including a red card) when these sides met at Craven Cottage last year.

One really interesting aspect of Chelsea’s recruitment this summer is how they’ve really focused on bringing in height and physicality - which are traits that this Chelsea side have desperately missed in the Premier League over recent campaigns.

Lacroix, Rogers and Palestra are all over 6 foot, and bolster the squad in all three areas of the pitch to make Chelsea look like a pretty dangerous side from set pieces on paper. They’ve also secured Austin McPhee, the set piece coach from Aston Villa, who should further improve Chelsea’s effectiveness from set piece situations.

Chelsea saw 10.24 corners per game in the Premier League last season, seeing 9+ match corners in 74% of their games. Fulham averaged 10.48 corners per game in the Premier League, seeing 9+ corners in 79% of their matches.

Chelsea’s attack on paper ahead of this season looks really promising with Morgan Rogers set to slot in alongside Palmer as the duo operating behind Joao Pedro. 

If Chelsea can get the balance between the three right, they could end up being one of the top scoring sides in the division. All three players reached double digits for goals in the Premier League last season, and you’d think that they will compliment each other really well.

I’m also not fully convinced about the direction that Fulham have taken this summer, losing Marco Silva and replacing him with Alvaro Arbeloa. He doesn’t have much coaching experience at all, and this is a very testing opening game for his side. 

Chelsea scored 3+ goals in each of their final three pre-season games ahead of the new campaign, with two of these games being against AC Milan and Real Sociedad.

The Brazilian has been electric in his last two campaigns for Barcelona, contributing 31 goals and 12 assists in his last 58 league games.

He’s never shy of taking on a shot from distance and does have an eye for the spectacular, we saw that in his time with Leeds as well.

He should start as the central striker here, with Anthony Gordon coming in on the left-hand side.

Barcelona are 1.29 favorites to win this match and should score some goals. They netted 95 times last season, the most in La Liga by a country mile.

In a central area, Raphinha should have plenty of opportunity to impact the game.

Aguado will line-up in the centre of the park here and be tasked with stopping the likes of Fermin Lopez, Marc Bernal and Gavi from controlling the game. Pedri also returned to action in their final pre-season friendly so could see some minutes.

Gavi and Bernal combined for well over 3.00 fouls drawn per 90 minutes last season so the Elche midfield have a tough task here.

Elche averaged nearly 14 fouls per 90 last season, with Aguado averaging 0.90. He also committed a foul in their opening match of this campaign.

He’s now committed a foul in six of his last seven matches and has committed a total of eight in that run.

Villar had a busy opener to the campaign as he was involved in eight fouls - fouled six times and committing two himself and earning a yellow card.

Villar averaged 1.67 fouls per 90 minutes in La Liga last season and given Barcelona’s prowess of winning fouls in midfield, a couple of fouls here looks a good bet, especially in a game where the foul markets are quite short.

Villar’s role can also often see him settling into  a right-sided position when out of possession, which may line him up against Anthony Gordon at times.

Gordon drew an average of 2.01 fouls per 90 for Newcastle last season.

Yamal is a player you’d much sooner to back for fouls drawn, but he does make a few himself and again, in a game with some short odds, this is a nice addition to the bet builder.

Yamal committed an average of 1.12 fouls per 90 in La Liga last season. He also committed foul in five of his six starts at the World Cup, in fact he totted up a hefty 14 fouls at the tournament.

The left-hand side for Elche draw some serious fouls too. German Valera was fouled 70 times last season, the second highest total in the squad and an average of 2.21 times per 90 minutes.

Behind him, Federico Redondo should start. He didn’t play loads last season but was fouled at a rate of 2.50 times per 90 minutes.

Ramos also impressed in the final pre-season game, with a goal and two assists against Manchester United.

In such a star-studded line-up, it was always going to be tough for him to get the minutes at PSG. Despite never being a regular starter, he netted 27 goals in 81 appearances for the Parisians.

Across his recent seasons since breaking through, Ramos has averaged 1.34, 1.54, 1.33, 2.70 and 1.71 shots on target per 90 minutes which is some seriously impressive consistency.

Now set to be the starting number nine, we should see plenty of hits in this market from the Portuguese striker.

Simeone got his season off to an excellent start as he netted what turned out to be the winning goal in the Coppa Italia after just nine minutes against Carrarese.

Simeone has struggled in recent years following an incredible 17 goal season at Verona. His move to Napoli didn’t work out but he was back on track last season as he scored 11 times in 32 matches for Torino.

He averaged 1.13 shots on target per 90 minutes last season and will lead the line as the sole striker in this one.

He should be in the thick of it, against a MIlan side who have plenty of defensive question marks.

Casadei started off the ‘26/27 in strong fashion as he racked up three fouls against lower league side Carrarese.

Casadei is an industrious, hard-working midfielder who loves getting stuck in. He led the side for fouls last season, committing 52 - and topped the charts despite not playing as many minutes as others.

He averaged 2.34 fouls per 90 minutes throughout the Serie A campaign.

That was his biggest season in regards to fouls, having previously posted (still impressive) numbers of 1.44 and 1.53 fouls per 90 minutes.

Casadei will be up against the likes of Ruben Loftus-Cheek (1.51 fouls per 90 minutes drawn) and Yunush Musah, who spent last season on loan at Atalanta, where he drew 1.85 fouls per 90 minutes.

After an average loan spell at Fulham, the Nigerian wide-man is back in Italy and rounded off pre-season in impressive fashion with a goal and two assists against Manchester United, which should nail him on to start here.

Across his career, Chukwueze has been fouled an average of 1.39 times per 90 minutes in domestic matches.

He’s incredibly quick, he’s got a sharp turn and a few tricks in the locker. He’s always looking to go past his man and get balls across the box.

His direct opponent Alession Cacciamani committed two fouls in the Copa Italia to kick-off the season and committed an average of 1.12 fouls per 90 minutes for Serie B side Juve Stabia last season.