Morgan Rogers had three shots when these sides met earlier in the season, with one of those attempts finding the target. He’s Villa’s joint top scorer in the Premier League this year with eight goals to his name - already matching the goal tally he managed across 37 appearances in the Premier League last season.

Rogers has taken 59 shots across his 27 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 2.20 shots per 90. This is significant because it’s a massive rise from the 1.58 shots per 90 that Rogers was averaging last season, suggesting that he’s been instructed to take on more efforts at goal by Unai Emery, something which is directly reflected in his current goal tally.

24 of his 59 attempts have found the target (0.90 per 90), which is also a rise on the 0.58 shots on target per 90 he averaged across the entirety of last campaign. Rogers has had a shot on target in four of his last five Premier League appearances, and a Wolves side that have conceded 30 goals across their 14 home matches in the top flight this term should give him opportunities to find the target again.

Como have been so tough to beat in Serie A this season, losing just five of their 26 matches - only the two Milan sides have lost fewer games than Como in Serie A this season. This solid record has seen Como rise up the ranks from a mid table side, to a team that can challenge for Europe with Cesc Fabregas’ side just four points adrift of the Champions League places. 

Como claimed a morale boosting 2-0 win over Juventus last time out, which not only pulled them closer to their European challengers but also ended a poor run of form - though Como did take on Atalanta, Milan and Napoli in this recent run.They welcome a Lecce side who have only managed to win three of their 12 away games in Serie A this term, notably only scoring eight goals across these games which is the joint lowest tally on the road of any side in the Italian top flight this term.

Como dispatched Lecce with ease when the sides last met, coming away 3-0 winners back in December. They deserved that victory too, limiting Lecce to 38% possession and an xG of 0.76. Their superiority should be even more exaggerated here now that they are the home side, and that should translate into three points.

Thun have been one of the stories of the season across Europe and currently sit comfortably top of the Swiss Super League as a newly promoted side. However, the focus for this game should actually be on Luzern who are looking to break into the top six.

The Swiss Super League splits off into a Championship group and a relegation group after the main league phase portion of the season, Luzern are right on the edge of qualifying for the Championship group with only three points separating them from Young Boys who occupy the final spot. Luzern have found some form in recent matches to aid their chances of sneaking into the top six, winning each of their last three matches in the Swiss Super League.

All three of these wins have seen 3+ goals, with Luzern actually managing to score four goals themselves in each of these games. They were on the end of a 4-1 hammering when the sides met earlier in the campaign, though they did manage to register an xG of 1.94 to Thun’s 3.24.

Thun have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, and have seen 45 goals across their 13 home matches overall (3.46 per game). They won’t lie down and let Luzern take all three points here, so they should also be able to contribute to the overall goal tally.

Real Sociedad are usually a side you would associate with being defensively solid and secure, especially over the last few seasons - but that safety has completely unravelled this term with the away side here only keeping one clean sheet all season, unsurprisingly the worst record in LaLiga this campaign.

Real Sociedad conceded three goals last time out against Real Oviedo, the bottom placed side in the league and the lowest scorers in the division. This example highlights the issues that Real Sociedad have been dealing with defensively all season, and it’s particularly prevalent on the road with Real Sociedad conceding 18 goals across their 12 away matches in LaLiga this term.

There is plenty of motivation for Mallorca to end up on the scoresheet too, they are one point from safety in LaLiga but do have a very solid home record to lean on. They’ve only lost three of their 12 home matches in LaLiga this term, netting 19 goals across these games in front of their own supporters. 

Furthermore, one of the most interesting parts of Mallorca’s campaign this season has been the goalscoring rate of Vedat Muriqi. He’s netted 16 goals in LaLiga this season, which is an exceptional record for a striker playing for a side battling relegation - and it is only second to Mbappe in the Spanish top flight this season.

I’ve backed Nijmegen over the course of the season for goals, they’ve been one of the most entertaining teams to watch in Europe this term and this clash looks primed for goals at both ends again. 

Clean sheets are not very common in the Eredivisie, these two sides have only kept three each all season and their most recent meeting is a good example of the goal volume we can expect in this clash. Fortuna Sittard ran out 3-2 winners when these sides last faced off back in August, with that clash seeing both sides register an xG in excess of 1.0 (1.33-1.90).

Four of the last five head to head meetings between the sides have seen BTTS, offering a historical angle to this contest as well. At present, Fortuna Sittard are trying to pull themselves closer to the European spots while Nijmegen are trying to close the five point gap to Feyenoord which would see them earn a Champions League spot - so both sides have plenty of motivation to get on the scoresheet.

Both sides have also seen BTTS in each of their last four matches coming into this clash, suggesting that this game will also be competitive and produce goals at both ends with what is at stake for these two sides with European aspirations in the Eredivisie this season.

This is another game centred around the race for the playoff spots, both Waalwijk and Eindhoven are part of the chasing pack looking to uproot Almere from their current spot in eighth in the Eerste Divisie. This battle should go right down to the final few games, so these sides are worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks for high scoring games as well.

Both of these sides have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, though wins have been rare in these runs with just one apiece for both sides heading into this clash. Waalwijk have seen 44 goals across their 14 home games in the Eerste Divisie this season (3.14 per game), though they have only managed to win five of these matches which is a record that should encourage Eindhoven.

That being said, Eindhoven have only managed to win four of their 14 games on the road themselves this season - losing eight of these matches. They’ve conceded 27 goals across these games (1.92 per game), so they can’t expect to come away with a clean sheet in this clash, which sets up a game that should see goals at both ends.

Strasbourg have been an entertaining watch since Gary O’Neil took charge at the club, and he’s been pretty successful in his early fixtures - earning positive results against the likes of Marseille, Monaco and Lyon as well as only narrowly losing to PSG.

Strasbourg have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, most recently running out 3-1 winners over Lyon on home soil. Strasbourg have seen 3+ goals in all eight of O’Neil’s matches in charge so far, notably only keeping one clean sheet across these fixtures which suggests that Strasbourg are taking quite a lot of risks under the tutelage of the former Wolves and Bournemouth boss.

Lens are a formidable opponent, and could still cause a real upset in the race for the title in Ligue 1 with the away side only two points behind PSG. They can leapfrog PSG ahead of their game against Le Havre on Saturday with all three points, so there should be plenty of motivation for Lens to take the game to Strasbourg.

Lens have netted 21 goals across their 11 away games in Ligue 1 this term, suggesting that Strasbourg’s recent record of failing to keep a clean sheet should continue. Strasbourg themselves have scored 20 goals across their 11 home matches and their record under O’Neil is particularly promising to suggest a goal heavy game here. 

Aston Villa have drawn more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season, coming in just under 13.0 fouls per game. 

Onana was fouled once off the bench when these sides met earlier in the season, and that was in just a 15 minute cameo in the final stages of the game. Villa drew 21 fouls from Wolves in that game, so we can expect the home side to exceed their foul average again here given how strong Villa are when it comes to winning fouls.

Onana looks to be the most physically dominant player in Villa’s midfield here, and he is a tough player to knock off the ball with his size and ability to travel with the ball through central areas.

Onana has drawn 20 fouls across his 15 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 1.49 fouls won per 90. I’d expect this to increase given the team foul patterns of these sides, and Onana facing up against Gomes who is one of the more aggressive players in the Wolves side. 

Wolves have committed more fouls than any other side in the Premier League, working out to an average of 13.4 fouls per game. They committed 21 fouls when they faced up against Villa in the meeting between the sides earlier in the season, with Andre responsible for three of these infringements.

Andre has picked up more yellow cards than any other Wolves player so far this season (9) and has maintained a foul average of 1.49 fouls committed per 90 across his 20 starts in the Premier League this term. We've already seen how Villa's strength when it comes to winning fouls can tempt Andre into a few mistakes, and that should come to the fore again here with the Brazilian set to face off against Onana and Luiz in the middle of the park.

Both Tielemans and Kamara were fouled twice in Aston Villa's 1-0 win over Wolves earlier in the season, suggesting that the midfield will be an important area of the pitch again when it comes to fouls.

This match has the feel of one that both need to get something from. The play-offs are just out of reach for both teams at the moment, but not far enough away that either team will be giving up on their goal just yet.

Bristol City have seen BTTS-Yes come in in three of their last four matches. Whilst many of Bristol City’s recent home matches have indeed been one-sided in their scorelines in one way or another, a lot of that is down to variance, and the Wrexham match last time out demonstrated that when both teams are going for the win, BTTS-Yes is a very realistic outcome.

City’s seasonal xG record at Ashton Gate stands at 1.33 xG for and 1.43 xG against, so, on average, chances are being created at both ends.

Watford have been short on goals in recent weeks, but their creation has actually been generally fine, just the execution that has been lacking. The Hornets have actually created 1 xG or more in each of their last eight matches, and it is only a matter of time until that consistency pays off in regular goals.

Whilst neither of these clubs would be amongst the highest earning corner winners in the Championship, there is a particular piece of form that came out in the research that makes me believe that this is a decent angle to take at the price.

That form comes in the very specific scenario of Watford playing away from home. Watford’s last few away matches in the Championship have seen a lot of corners.

The last Watford away match saw 16 corners taken, with Watford taking seven by themselves. They won nine at Southampton, conceding three, and there were 11 at Hull, and 15 at Blackburn. Watford's away matches average 10.7 corners in total.

Bristol City home matches also average over this line, with an average of nine corners won in the league at Ashton Gate.

Mendy was brought in to be an experienced presence in central midfield and provide the hard graft to go alongside the guile of Imran Louza. He established himself in the team just before Ed Still’s arrival, and the new manager also seems to like him, as he has now started Watford’s last five matches, playing the entire duration of four of them.

This does call into question some potential rotation, especially given Mendy’s age of 33, but I am expecting him to at least start here, and given that, I expect him to draw at least one foul.

Mendy is averaging 1.14 fouls drawn in the season so far, but recently he has upped his ball carrying, and as a result, he has been fouled on more occasions. His last four matches have seen him fouled seven times, with them spread out evenly across the matches, so two fouls against him in three and one in the other.

The final piece of the puzzle is the fact that the Bristol City midfield has been made more combative. Sam Morsy is playing some minutes, and Tomi Horvat has also come in and provided extra duel presence in attacking midfield.

It is a shorter price, but I like this angle in several ways.

Firstly, there is the fact that Pring is a usual candidate to be fouled in most games that he plays in. He averages 1.45 fouls against him per 90 in the league so far this season, and he has been fouled at least once in his last four starts in a row.

The other side of this bet is that Watford’s right-hand side seems to be much more combative than their left. Nestory Irankunda had a go in right midfield last time out and committed five fouls from that position.

James Abankwah has been playing on the right of the three central defenders and has been regularly committing fouls from that position too, nine in his last five matches, and the aforementioned Namplays Mendy has tended to play on the right of the midfield pivot and is also averaging over one foul per 90.

Wolves have had quite the issue with discipline this season, which isn’t that surprising given that they’ve been the punching bag of the Premier League for most of the season. Rob Edwards’ side have committed more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season (13.4 per game), resulting in 57 yellow cards (2.03 per game).

Wolves exceeded both of these averages in the initial league meeting between these sides, committing 21 fouls and picking up four yellow cards - showing how the history and rivalry of this fixture can lead to increased aggression on both sides of the pitch.

Furthermore, Aston Villa are one of the strongest teams in the league when it comes to drawing fouls and cards; they’ve drawn 2+ cards from the opposition in 22 of their 28 Premier League matches this season.

Wolves have picked up 2+ cards in eight of their last 10 matches in the Premier League, so being resigned to relegation hasn’t really affected their aggressive approach when without the ball in the Premier League under the guidance of Rob Edwards.

Joao Gomes is usually associated with committing fouls, but he’s very strong when it comes to drawing them too.

Gomes committed three fouls when the sides clashed earlier in the season, drawing one foul from Villa’s midfield on that occasion. Gomes can antagonise the opposition very easily with his aggressive approach, so he is usually targeted by the opposition to get one back on him.

Gomes has drawn 30 fouls across his 23 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 1.33 fouls won per 90. His main opponents here are likely to be a duo of Douglas Luiz and Amadou Onana.

Luiz has been pretty aggressive since joining Villa on loan in January, committing eight fouls across his nine Premier League appearances (1.10 per 90), while Onana has a natural physical advantage over Gomes, which could see him overstep the mark on a few occasions.

Amadou Onana has emerged as one of the most complete midfielders in the Premier League this season. I think more people would be talking about him if his campaign hadn’t been affected by injuries. He’s only managed to start 15 games in the Premier League this term, but has been an effective player for Villa in all of these matches.

Onana’s physical profile makes him a very difficult player to knock off the ball; he’s won 20 fouls across his 15 starts in the Premier League this season (1.49 per 90) and plays for a Villa side that have won more fouls than any other side in the Premier League since Unai Emery took charge of the club.

This matches up quite well with Wolves being the most aggressive side in the Premier League this term; they committed 21 fouls when the sides last met, with both Tielemans and Kamara drawing 2+ fouls as Villa’s central midfielders in that clash. Onana came off the bench in that game and was fouled in his 15-minute cameo, offering further promise that he’ll be hauled down at least once here.

Morgan Rogers had three shots when these sides met earlier in the season, with one of those attempts finding the target. He’s Villa’s joint top scorer in the Premier League this year with eight goals to his name - already matching the goal tally he managed across 37 appearances in the Premier League last season.

Rogers has taken 59 shots across his 27 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 2.20 shots per 90. This is significant because it’s a massive rise from the 1.58 shots per 90 that Rogers was averaging last season, suggesting that he’s been instructed to take on more efforts at goal by Unai Emery, something which is directly reflected in his current goal tally.

24 of his 59 attempts have found the target (0.90 per 90), which is also a rise on the 0.58 shots on target per 90 he averaged across the entirety of last campaign. Rogers has had a shot on target in four of his last five Premier League appearances, and a Wolves side that have conceded 30 goals across their 14 home matches in the top flight this term should give him opportunities to find the target again.