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Marco Palestra is one of Chelsea’s new summer signings and I’m looking at him to commit just one foul in this West London derby for the third stop of our train journey.

Palestra is a very versatile player and can operate at both left and right wingback, with Xabi Alonso expected to set Chelsea up in a 3-4-3 shape here. 

Palestra is clearly very talented but from what I’ve seen of him so far, it may take him some time to adapt to the physical level that the Premier League demands. He’s only 21, but started 34 games for Cagliari in Serie A last season - committing 41 fouls across these games (1.20 per 90).

His pre-season numbers for Chelsea also offer promise, with Palestra committing three fouls against AC Milan and one foul against Real Sociedad - lining up as a left wingback in both matches. 

Palestra’s underlying defensive numbers are also promising for this selection. He averaged 3.50 defensive contributions per 90 and 7.24 duels won per 90 in Serie A last season - also making 55 tackles (1.61 per 90). 

He’ll be up against Oscar Bobb here if he lines up as a left wingback, who will cause him issues having won 17 fouls across 11 starts in the Premier League last season (1.48 per 90).

Joao Pedro has enjoyed a really strong pre-season for Chelsea under Xabi Alonso as he looks to build on a successful debut campaign for the Blues, in which he scored 15 Premier League goals.

He took 73 shots in the top flight last season (2.46 per 90), seeing 28 of these efforts find the target (0.94 per 90). 

These numbers may feel a bit low, but his underlying data picked up massively in the second half of the campaign when he was actually trusted as a number nine, with Enzo Maresca always reluctant to deploy him in that role.

Joao Pedro should only improve further under the guidance of Xabi Alonso, with Palmer and Rogers now operating behind him in a dangerous front three. 

Joao Pedro scored seven goals across five appearances during pre-season, and notably had the summer to rest after not being called up to Brazil’s World Cup squad. 

I’ve always been quite defensive of Rob Sanchez. He’s definitely got errors in him, but these are often overly scrutinised and he doesn’t get the same level of attention when he actually puts in a good display. 

He was forced into making 98 saves in the Premier League last season, working out to an average of 2.90 saves per 90 with a save percentage just shy of 70%. 

He was called into action three times in this fixture last season, and Chelsea’s pre-season campaign would suggest that there are still some defensive issues for Alonso to iron out.

Sanchez made three saves in Chelsea’s final pre-season friendly against Real Sociedad, and will be tested by the likes of Garcia, Bobb, Kevin and King in this clash.

One area of Chelsea’s game that may take some time for Alonso to properly address is how reckless the Blues have been when it comes to their disciplinary record.

Chelsea ended last season with eight red cards, four more than any other team in the Premier League. They also ranked second for yellow cards, with only Tottenham picking up more cautions than the Blues. Chelsea have actually ranked in the top two teams for yellow cards in each of the last three seasons.

This won’t be a quick fix, much of these temperament issues are down to Chelsea’s young squad and this is a perfect game for that issue to tide to the fore given that it is a West London derby. 

Chelsea picked up 2+ cards in both head to head meetings with Fulham in the Premier League last season, picking up four cautions (including a red card) when these sides met at Craven Cottage last year.

One really interesting aspect of Chelsea’s recruitment this summer is how they’ve really focused on bringing in height and physicality - which are traits that this Chelsea side have desperately missed in the Premier League over recent campaigns.

Lacroix, Rogers and Palestra are all over 6 foot, and bolster the squad in all three areas of the pitch to make Chelsea look like a pretty dangerous side from set pieces on paper. They’ve also secured Austin McPhee, the set piece coach from Aston Villa, who should further improve Chelsea’s effectiveness from set piece situations.

Chelsea saw 10.24 corners per game in the Premier League last season, seeing 9+ match corners in 74% of their games. Fulham averaged 10.48 corners per game in the Premier League, seeing 9+ corners in 79% of their matches.

Chelsea’s attack on paper ahead of this season looks really promising with Morgan Rogers set to slot in alongside Palmer as the duo operating behind Joao Pedro. 

If Chelsea can get the balance between the three right, they could end up being one of the top scoring sides in the division. All three players reached double digits for goals in the Premier League last season, and you’d think that they will compliment each other really well.

I’m also not fully convinced about the direction that Fulham have taken this summer, losing Marco Silva and replacing him with Alvaro Arbeloa. He doesn’t have much coaching experience at all, and this is a very testing opening game for his side. 

Chelsea scored 3+ goals in each of their final three pre-season games ahead of the new campaign, with two of these games being against AC Milan and Real Sociedad.

Both league meetings between these sides last season produced 2+ goals, with Roma putting four goals past Fiorentina to no reply in this fixture.

Roma also triumphed as the away side, coming away 2-1 winners in Florence in a game that saw both sides register an xG in excess of 1.0 (1.10-1.35). 

If we widen the net further when it comes to the head to head record between these sides, 2+ goals has landed in 19 of the last 20 competitive meetings - stretching all the way back to 2017.

All five of Roma’s pre-season games produced 2+ goals, with Roma notably failing to keep a clean sheet in any of these matches. Fiorentina only kept two clean sheets across their seven friendly matches ahead of the new campaign. 

Chelsea’s attack on paper ahead of this season looks really promising with Morgan Rogers set to slot in alongside Palmer as the duo operating behind Joao Pedro. 

If Chelsea can get the balance between the three right, they could end up being one of the top scoring sides in the division. All three players reached double digits for goals in the Premier League last season, and you’d think that they will compliment each other really well.

I’m also not fully convinced about the direction that Fulham have taken this summer, losing Marco Silva and replacing him with Alvaro Arbeloa. He doesn’t have much coaching experience at all, and this is a very testing opening game for his side. 

Chelsea scored 3+ goals in each of their final three pre-season games ahead of the new campaign, with two of these games being against AC Milan and Real Sociedad.

Morgan Rogers scored his first goal for Chelsea in their pre-season victory over Real Sociedad last time out, tapping in from close range following a saved effort. 

Rogers should be able to hit the ground running for Chelsea, he’s registered double digits across all competitions for goals and assists in each of the last two seasons at Aston Villa, recording 25 goal contributions across 55 appearances last season.

He should benefit further from being around the likes of Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro, who have also been Chelsea’s most effective players when it comes to registering goal contributions in recent campaigns. 

I think it’s worth keeping an eye on most centre backs for fouls and cards when they face off against this Chelsea front three, who are all very good when it comes to winning fouls.

As the relationship between the trio develops, I think we’ll see really impressive rotations and movement that can pull apart opposition backlines starting here with Bassey not being the most mobile of centre backs.

Bassey collected five yellow cards across his 28 starts in the Premier League last season from an average of 1.00 fouls committed per 90. 

His heat map suggests that Bassey likes to stay on the left, pitching him up against Cole Palmer (1.69 fouls won per 90) and Pedro Neto (0.85 fouls won per 90), with the latter possibly having a new role as a wing back under Xabi Alonso.

This is a really nice price for Levi Colwill to win a few fouls with the centre back operating in a new look back three alongside Maxence Lacroix and Reece James.

Colwill will start on the left of this trio, allowing him to push on into central areas and utilise his line breaking passing which Chelsea desperately missed last season as he was absent for the entire campaign due to injury.

Even backing Colwill to win just one foul here at 1.91 is a nice price worth looking at, Fulham committed 11+ fouls in both head to head meetings with Chelsea last season - committing 17 in one of these games.

He’ll be up against the inexperienced Gonzalo Garcia, who is likely to overstep the mark at times on his Premier League debut given that he’s new to the league and averaged 0.85 fouls committed per 90 in LaLiga last season. 

Ipswich made the perfect start to the season as a newly promoted side, beating Sunderland 2-1 at home thanks to goals from Emmerson and Jack Clarke. 

They’ve got a favourable tie in the cup here with Leicester really struggling to adapt to the style of Russell Martin in the early weeks of the season, failing to win either of their opening two games in League One against Notts County and Burton.

Ipswich have quite a bit of momentum coming into this game even putting that opening win of the Premier League season aside, they won each of their final four friendly matches - winning two of these games to nil.

This is a potential banana skin for Barnsley, who come into the game as favourites despite a pretty poor start to the season in which they’ve lost to Bromley at home and then failed to beat Doncaster on the road.

The low scoring nature of these opening games is slightly deceiving, their opening 1-0 defeat to Bromley saw an xG of 2.74 while their 0-0 draw with Doncaster produced 25 shots and a combined xG of 1.82. 

Crewe should feel confident of causing an upset here having won both of their games in League Two so far this term, as well as seeing 3+ goals in the last round of the EFL Cup as they beat Accrington 2-1 at home.

Watford have failed to keep a clean sheet in both of their games in the Championship so far this season, seeing 3+ goals in their 2-1 win over Southampton on the opening day of the campaign.

Watford have conceded xG totals of 1.72 and 1.91 across their opening matches, so they are far from secure at the back and some rotation for this cup tie will only make that aspect of their game more vulnerable as they attempt to reach the next round.

Peterborough saw 3+ goals last time out as they came away 2-1 winners over Mansfield at home. That game produced a combined xG of 2.86, following on from an xG of 3.08 in their 2-0 defeat to Bradford on the opening day of the campaign. 

Cardiff’s games have been very entertaining at the start of this season, seeing BTTS in all three of their competitive matches against Swindon, Wrexham and Derby.

Their clash with Derby last time out produced four goals with the game seeing a combined xG of 4.06. Cardiff should remain to be quite an entertaining side to follow in the EFL this season due to the style of play imposed by Brian Barry Murphy.

Norwich have seen BTTS in two of their three competitive games so far this season, beating MK Dons in the first round of the cup to set up this tie by a 4-1 scoreline. 

Furthermore, meetings between these sides tend to be entertaining and end to end with each of the last four clashes seeing BTTS - the most recent of which took place last year.

The first leg meeting between these sides saw BTTS and produced four goals as Bodo Glimt registered a 3-1 win on the road against Nijmegen to give them control of this Champions League qualifying tie.

That game saw both sides register a healthy xG (1.70-1.75) with 30 shots in the game in total, most of which actually came from the home side (22). After a period of consistent clean sheets, Bodo Glimt have seen BTTS in each of their last four matches - with most of these games being qualifying ties.

Bodo Glimt saw BTTS in both of their qualifying games against Union St Gilloise in the last round, with the Belgian side scoring twice when they visited Norway from an xG of 2.61.

Nijmegen have also seen BTTS in each of their last four matches and were one of the best sides in Europe to back in this market last season due to their aggressive style of play which is very attacking. 

Celtic put three goals past LASK in the first leg at Celtic Park last week, giving them control of this tie heading into the second leg.

I think they will have enough to get on the scoresheet again here with LASK being forced to be quite forward thinking from the start of this match, as they need at least three goals to get back into the tie.

This should leave gaps that Celtic can exploit with their attacking options, including Duran, Nygren and Hogh who have all made positive starts to the campaign. 

LASK conceded 19 goals across their 16 home games domestically last season, so there is definitely a defensive vulnerability that Celtic can exploit against an Austrian side who won’t prioritise the defensive side of their game in this clash. 

Real Madrid needed a last minute winner from new signing Carlos Espi to edge past Espanyol last time out, but were dominant in the game when looking at the underlying numbers - registering an xG of 2.71 from 21 shots. 

Mourinho’s side avoided defeat across all five of their friendly matches, scoring 2+ goals in four of these games. It’s this scoring power that will set Real Madrid apart from most sides in LaLiga this season, especially a Sociedad side who fell to a 1-0 defeat to Real Betis last time out with just nine shots.

Real Sociedad really struggled on the road in LaLiga last season, winning just three of their 19 away matches. They only scored 22 goals across these games, once again suggesting that there is quite a bit of a gap in the scoring power of these sides. 

The first leg meeting between these sides finished 2-2 with Viking managing to upset the odds, and the underlying data, to claim a draw in Zagreb. 

Viking have seen BTTS in five of their last six matches across all competitions, and have notably won all seven of their home games domestically this season - scoring 25 goals in the process (3.57 per game). 

Dinamo Zagreb were heavy favourites to qualify before the first leg, but have since drifted to be the outsiders. They’ve scored in each of their last 13 matches ahead of this clash, notably seeing BTTS in four of their last five matches during Champions League qualifying.