Leverkusen have been progressing steadily under Kasper Hjulmand this season and are in the race to finish in the European spots. This is quite the climb down from the conversations that Xabi Alonso had Leverkusen in a few seasons ago, but the home side still have the quality required to pick up results against the likes of St Pauli.

Leverkusen come into this game having won four of their last five matches across all competitions, only dropping points in the form of a 1-1 draw against Mochengladbach on the road. One of these games was against St Pauli in the DFB Pokal, which Leverkusen won 3-0 - offering a promising precedent for this encounter. Leverkusen were pretty comfortable in that cup win as well, only conceding one shot on target to St Pauli.

St Pauli have struggled on the road this term with just one win from their 11 away matches, losing eight of these games. Only Heidenheim (4) have picked up fewer points on the road this season in the Bundesliga than St Pauli (5). As well as losing the recent cup tie between the sides, St Pauli also lost the most recent league clash between the teams with Leverkusen running out 2-1 winners on that occasion.

MK Dons come into this game in brilliant form having won four of their last five matches across all competitions, a run that has seen them close the gap to the automatic promotion spots to just three points. 

They welcome a Newport side that have struggled for consistency all season, winning just five of their 30 matches in League Two which is a record that has left them in a perilous position at the bottom of the division.

Newport have lost 10 of their 15 away matches in League Two this season, and have notably only scored 15 goals across these matches while conceding double that tally. Only Crawley (9) and Shrewsbury (6) have picked up fewer points on the road than Newport (11) in League Two this season.  

MK Dons boast a solid home record which can aid them in getting over the line here. They’ve only lost three of their 15 home matches, winning eight of these games. Their defensive record is particularly impressive with only 15 goals conceded across these games, making it difficult to make an argument for Newport causing them too many problems here.

The Eerste Divisie is a brilliant league for goals and this encounter should be no different with Venlo chasing down a spot in the playoffs. Vitesse managed to take all three points when the sides last met, running out 2-1 winners, with the prior meeting also seeing BTTS as Venlo ran out 4-1 winners over Vitesse.

Vitesse have seen 38 goals across their 13 home matches in the Eerste Divisie this season (2.92 per game) and have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions.

They don’t have as much to fight for as Venlo do, but Vitesse have improved since the season started and have been posting form which is equivalent to those going for the playoffs since the turn of the year - Vitesse have only lost two of their last nine matches across all competitions.

Venlo have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, and look to be struggling with the pressure of pushing for the playoffs with just one of these games ending in Venlo taking all three points. That win was also the site of their only clean sheet in this period, which was cheaply earned as they allowed their opponents to have seven shots on target.

Marseille have recently parted ways with Roberto De Zerbi following their 5-0 defeat to PSG, which was a result that reflected Marseille’s campaign overall this term with the club also crashing out of the Champions League a few weeks prior. Marseille have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, conceding 2+ goals in three of these fixtures.

I’d expect the home side to react to their 5-0 defeat against PSG last time out, and they take on a Strasbourg side who have continued to be an entertaining watch despite swapping Liam Rosenior for Gary O’Neil earlier this year. The most recent meeting between these sides produced exactly three goals as Marseille ran out 2-1 winners over Strasbourg in a clash with a total xG of 3.38.

Strasbourg should sense an opportunity here given the vulnerability around Marseille at the moment, though they have to respond to a setback themselves with the away side here falling to a disappointing 2-1 defeat against Le Havre last time out. Strasbourg’s away matches have been pretty goal heavy this term with 37 across their 11 assignments on the road (3.36 per game).

Heracles have been a reliable source of entertainment in the Eredivisie this season, seeing 88 goals across their 22 matches in the Dutch top flight (4.0 per game). What is particularly striking about their record is the fact that they’ve only drawn two of these matches, suggesting that they lack the ability to grind out results.

This is such a pivotal game in the context of the relegation battle in the Eredivisie, Heracles and Breda are the two bottom placed sides in the Dutch top flight and can deal a real blow to a relegation rival with all three points here, setting up the classic six pointer scenario which is always a good place to look for this type of bet.

Recent head to head meetings also offer promise when looking to pair goals with a winner, this has landed in each of the last two head to head meetings between the sides with one win apiece. Heracles won the most recent clash between the sides, running out 4-1 winners as the away side.

Only one of Heracles’ home games in the Eredivisie this season has ended in a draw, with four wins and five defeats making up the remainder of the 10 matches they’ve contested at home this term. A draw doesn’t do much for either of these sides other than encourage the other sides in the Eredivisie relegation race, which is far from settled.

With just one point separating them in the Swiss Super League, Zurich and Luzern meet in a high stakes clash that’s perfectly set up for goals - and a winner.

Both sides are pushing for a spot in the Championship group, but only one can keep their hopes firmly alive. A draw suits neither, with a five point gap between Zurich and Young Boys in that final place, anything less than victory would be a major setback for either team and had the initiative to the other sides in the race. 

The recent head to head clashes offer promise when it comes to backing BTTS and a winner here, their last league meeting ended 3-2 to Zurich and each of the last five head to head meetings have seen BTTS, with three of these games seeing an outright winner.

Zurich have drawn just one of their 12 home games in the Swiss Super League this term, suggesting that their games usually end one way or the other. This climate is likely to be exaggerated here with both Zurich and Luzern going got a spot in the Championship group. 

Luzern have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions. Their most recent outing was a wild 4-3 victory over Grasshopper, highlighting their ability to contribute at both ends.

With similar quality levels, identical motivation, and nothing to gain from a draw, this has all the ingredients for an open, competitive game - and a winner.

When there is a big disparity between squad quality, strikers for the underdogs are often left feeding on scraps and, therefore, end up making frustrated fouls. Tyrese Shade looks to have a decent enough record to be that striker for us, with his record of 1.06 fouls per 90 across all competitions and 11 offences across his last eight starts.

West Ham may choose to rest players for this fixture; however, Shade is likely to be opposing any two from Max Kilman, Axel Disasi and Konstantinos Mavropanos, all of whom can mix it physically. Across the Hammers’ last six games, opposition strikers have committed eight fouls, and Shade seems to have the data to add more fouls to that list. 

West Ham were unfortunate to only take a point against Man United last time out, as Benjamin Sesko equalised in the 96th minute for the visitors. Prior to that, the Hammers secured a 2-0 win against Burnley, in what was a big result at the bottom of the Premier League table. Credit to them, West Ham have shown a lot more resilience since the start of January, and are looking like they might just escape the bottom three. 

Winter signings have had a notable impact - Axel Disasi was able to see out a clean sheet on his debut, while Valentin Castellanos also bagged his first Premier League goal for West Ham in that game. The former Lazio man was on the scoresheet in the previous round of the FA Cup, as he scored in extra time to secure progression for his side (v QPR). Sitting near the bottom of the pile in League One, it seems like a mammoth task for Burton to keep West Ham at bay.

Nuno Espirito Santo opted for a strong XI in the previous round against QPR, which suggests he could go for something similar this weekend.

On paper, Burton look like an easier matchup, considering they are an entire division below QPR. West Ham should look to press home their advantage and dominate proceedings once again. 

However, the Hammers are averaging 11.0 corners per game on the road this season, with their opponents responsible for 6.93 corners. They haven’t been great at limiting chances, and Burton don’t really have anything to lose coming into this one. They will likely be quite direct in their play, looking to get the ball into the box at every available opportunity, so they are more than capable of contributing to the corner count.

It was that result against QPR that kick-started West Ham’s resurgence. Prior to that, the Hammers had taken just four points from their previous 10 league matches, and their situation was looking dire. However, they have since only lost once in their five league matches. 

Crysencio Summerville was the catalyst in that game against QPR, as he opened the scoring for his side, before then providing the assist for Castellanos to score the winner. Summerville comes into this clash in exceptional form, having scored in five of his last six matches across all competitions, and this matchup against Burton looks like the easiest of the lot. 

The winger found plenty of success against QPR, registering four shots in regular time, with two hitting the target. To highlight his importance, he also played through the entirety of extra time, during which he added another shot on target.

The Magpies broke out of their winless rut in midweek, as they beat Tottenham 2-1 in London. However, Newcastle’s home form has been poor recently, and they suffered a 2-0 loss against Aston Villa at St James’ Park recently. Emiliano Buendia opened the scoring after 19 minutes, before Ollie Watkins secured the spoils for his side in the 88th minute. Newcastle had plenty of chances, but were unable to find the back of the net, largely due to Emiliano Martinez. The Argentine keeper racked up six saves in total.

Unai Emery had the upper hand over Eddie Howe this season, unbeaten in both league meetings. Both times, Villa were able to keep a clean sheet despite being up against it - the sides also met in matchday one of the Premier League, and Aston Villa held on to a 0-0 draw despite finishing the game with 10 men.

There were a total of 20 corners across the two league meetings between the sides this season, with exactly nine at Villa Park when the sides last met. This is a clash between two strong attacking units, and chances are likely to be available at both ends of the field once again. 

Aston Villa are averaging 5.23 corners per game across all competitions this season, rising to 5.7 when playing at Villa Park. They racked up 12 corners in their last home outing against Brentford, and they usually play with a lot more attacking intent in front of a home crowd. 

It is a similar story for Newcastle, who tend to take things up a gear when they play on Tyneside, but the Magpies are still averaging 5.4 corners per game on their travels, which is also impressive.

After taking the lead through Emiliano Buendia when the sides last met, Villa adopted quite a passive approach and let Newcastle dominate possession. The Magpies registered 61% of the ball. However, the Villans were effective on the counter, and managed 14 shots overall, of which eight hit the target. Morgan Rogers accounted for two of those efforts, with both forcing a save from Nick Pope. The Englishman was able to pick up some promising positions at St James’ Park, and he once again became a target here. 

The 23-year-old bagged his 10th goal of the season against Bournemouth last weekend, and he has landed this selection in each of his last nine appearances. He has been a standout performer for Aston Villa this season and should feature in a more natural advanced midfield role, with Ollie Watkins returning from injury. Rogers is averaging 2.21 shots per 90 this season in the Premier League, with 42% of those efforts hitting the target. 

It was a much-needed three points for Newcastle in midweek, but it wasn’t all positive news. Bruno Guimaraes had to be replaced in the final few minutes with a suspected hamstring injury. The Brazilian recently returned from injury, but has emerged as a fresh doubt for this weekend. 

With Lewis Miley and Joelinton also out, Sandro Tonali looks set for a recall in the middle of the park. He is averaging just 1.09 fouls per 90 this season, which is nothing particularly special, but the main allure here is his matchup against Aston Villa. 

Unai Emery’s men have drawn the most infringements of any Premier League side this season, averaging 12.76 fouls drawn per game. Morgan Rogers is a key reason for that, as he is averaging 1.32 fouls drawn per 90 - he should be directly up against Tonali in midfield, which is a matchup to keep an eye on. 

Hugo Ekitike netted a brace the last time the sides met with Liverpool running out 2-0 winners in that clash at Anfield. Ekitike had seven shots in total in that game, which sums him up quite well - he’s an erratic shooter, but he has been Liverpool’s most effective player in the final third this season.

Ekitike has netted 10 goals across his 17 Premier League appearances this season, a solid tally for his debut season in the top-flight. He’s kept some of his key traits from his spell at Frankfurt, which includes a consistently high shot volume. Ekitike has taken 57 shots across those 17 starts in the Premier League, working out to an average of 3.38 per 90.

If I were to be critical of Ekitike, I would say that he should be getting more of his attempts on target. 17 of his 57 shots have found the target, which still works out to a decent average of 1.01 shots on target per 90. He can improve on this record, but his high shot volume always gives him a strong chance of finding the target - as he did twice against Brighton when he last faced Fabian Hurzeler’s side.

Liverpool v Brighton is usually an entertaining encounter with eight of the last nine head-to-head clashes seeing 3+ goals. The exception actually came the last time that the sides met, with Liverpool running out 2-0 winners on that occasion. That game should have produced more goals, with Brighton generating an xG of 1.90 from their 14 shots and a combined xG of 3.79 in the contest.

Pressure is steadily increasing on Fabian Hurzeler with Brighton coming into this clash having won just one of their last six matches across all competitions, with that triumph coming in the last round of the FA Cup as they beat Manchester United 2-1. There isn’t a massive amount of evidence from Brighton’s side in recent matches to suggest a high-scoring game here, but what does stand out is how many goals they see on the road in the Premier League.

Brighton have seen 34 goals across their 13 away matches in the Premier League this term (2.61 per game), notably conceding 20 goals across those matches. Liverpool have a promising recent record when it comes to goals, seeing 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions. The historical trend of goals between the sides should also come into play, with the potential for a really exciting cup clash.

I’m a really big admirer of Yasin Ayari and think he could be one of the next big money departures from Brighton. He’s enjoying his best season for Brighton so far from a personal point of view, and with Baleba struggling at the moment, I think Hurzeler will opt for Ayari in this particular clash.

Ayari’s aggression is a key part of his game; he’s committed 18 fouls across his 18 starts in the Premier League this season (0.95 per 90), and he plays for a Brighton side who are aggressive as a team. Fabian Hurzeler’s side committed 15 fouls on their trip to Anfield last time around, with five of those fouls being won by Liverpool’s midfield trio of Ryan Gravenberch, Curtis Jones and Alexis Mac Allister.

Both Gravenberch and Jones were hauled down twice in that clash, suggesting that the midfield will be an active battleground again for Ayari to commit a foul. Ayari actually first caught my eye at Anfield a few seasons ago. Brighton lost the game, but Jack Hinshelwood and Ayari put in top performances in the middle of the park - Ayari also committed a foul in that game, as well as drawing three.

Brighton have had a disappointing season so far, given the pre-season expectations that surrounded the club. I do quite like Fabian Hurzeler, but he looks very irritable at the moment, and I think that is clouding his judgement and having an effect on the discipline of his players. 

Brighton committed 15 fouls and picked up two yellow cards in their 2-0 defeat to Liverpool at Anfield earlier in the season, and I think we’ll see similar numbers again here. Brighton have picked up the second most yellow cards in the Premier League this season (63 - 2.42 per game), showing how the frustration towards their underperformance has directly impacted their card numbers this term.

Brighton also rank highly for fouls committed per game (12.0), which shows how their high card count is also intertwined with their tactical approach, with Hurzeler attempting to implement a similar system to Iraola at Bournemouth, which is focused on intense man-to-man pressing.

Leeds’ form has been a mixed bag over the last few games, and they were able to pull off an impressive comeback at Stamford Bridge last time out. Before that, Daniel Farke's side cruised past Nottingham Forest at Elland Road, winning that game 3-1.

Leeds also had no trouble against Championship side Derby in the previous FA Cup round, as they secured a comprehensive 3-1 victory on their travels against the Rams. Leeds racked up 22 shots worth 3.12 xG - if not for Jacob Zetterstrom’s eight saves, the scoreline really could have gotten out of hand.

Birmingham, meanwhile, have kept just one clean sheet in their last nine league matches at home, yet they remain unbeaten across that stretch, which underlines how open their games have been. They have regularly been able to cause problems going forward, and they should once again be front-footed here with the backing of their home support.

Birmingham like to commit bodies forward when they attack, which could make for quite an open contest here. Their games tend to be quite entertaining to watch, and they come into this clash on an eight-game unbeaten run across all competitions, so they should be confident.

Birmingham’s corner numbers at home have been encouraging, reflecting how they play with intent, particularly in big fixtures. They are averaging 6.61 corners per game on average, and conceding 4.11, totaling 10.72 corners per game at St Andrew’s Stadium this campaign.

Leeds are a cut above Birmingham’s usual opponent, though, and they found no issue in carving through Derby in the previous round. Considering Derby and Birmingham sit close together in the Championship standings, this could be a very similar game, and there were ten corners in that third-round FA Cup clash.

Jay Stansfield has been the main focal point for Birmingham this season, and he usually takes on a large responsibility in the final third. He was on the scoresheet against Leicester last weekend, taking his tally to ten goals and five assists for the season so far. For context, that is exactly double Demarai Gray, who has scored the second-most goals for Birmingham across all competitions this season.

Stansfield is averaging 2.72 shots per 90 this season and has accrued more efforts at goal than any other Birmingham player, to further highlight his importance. That figure rises even further to 3.35 shots per 90 when playing on home turf.

There are high expectations for the 23-year-old, who is also the record-signing for Chris Davies' side. His standards seem to rise against the tougher opponent, and he should be extra motivated to perform well against a Premier League side.

Since arriving on loan from Girona in January, Jhon Solis has already established himself as a key player for Birmingham in the middle of the park, and he has played the full 90 in each of Birmingham’s last three matches.

His importance has only increased for this weekend, after Seung-Ho Paik had to be taken off after just 15 minutes against West Brom with an injury. Solis looks set to start alongside Tommy Doyle here.

Solis will take on a large defensive responsibility, and he has landed this selection in all three starts for the English club, averaging 1.1 fouls per 90. In addition to that, he is also averaging 2.48 tackles per 90, highlighting his willingness to fly into challenges.

This matchup against Leeds promises to be a tough one for the Colombian, as they were fouled 16 times by Derby in their last FA Cup game.

The race for the European spots in the Eredivisie looks to be one of the more compelling races across Europe with only five points separating Groningen in eighth and Zwolle in 13th. Spots from 5th-8th guarantee a shot at being in the Conference League next season, which would be massive for either of these sides who are both firmly in the hunt for a spot in Europe next season. 

The initial league meeting between these sides saw BTTS as Zwolle ran out 2-1 winners over Heerenveen, with that clash marking the fourth consecutive meeting that has seen BTTS. Heerenveen enter this contest in particularly patchy form with only one win from their last five matches across all competitions, but that victory did come last time out as they beat Go Ahead Eagles 3-1. 

Zwolle have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches across all competitions, winning two of these games. Victory here would take them above Heerenveen in the packed race for European football, so this is an important game for both sides and one which could be decisive in the hunt for a top eight finish.

What is particularly notable about Zwolle’s away matches in the Eredivisie this term is their poor results while still maintaining a decent goal output. They’ve netted 16 goals across their 11 away matches, despite only managing to win one of these games. 

Heidenheim have failed to keep a clean sheet in 24 matches across all competitions, so I’d expect this to be a pretty frenzied affair. Heidenheim are starting to drift in the relegation race with six points between them and safety following their defeat against Hamburg last time out.

Augsburg aren’t in the clear yet, a defeat here would see the home side plunged into the heart of the relegation battle with only three points between Augsburg and the relegation zone ahead of this fixture. That being said, Augsburg have been pretty strong at home this season - avoiding defeat in seven of their 11 home matches this term.

Heidenheim have only won one of their 10 matches on the road this season, losing eight of these fixtures. These games have produced 32 goals (3.2 per game), and Heidenheim will have to play with urgency here or they risk getting cut off from the relegation battle when there are plenty of vulnerable sides hovering around the bottom of the Bundesliga. 

This has the makings of a really entertaining game on Sunday afternoon, Nijmegen ran out 3-1 winners in the most recent head to head clash between the sides - with the teams combining for a total xG of 4.48 from 32 match shots.

Nijmegen have been one of my go to sides when it comes to goals this season, they’re averaging 4.31 goals per game in the Eredivisie this season which isn’t just one of the best goal rates in the league, but across Europe as a whole. They come into this clash having seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions.

They travel to face a capable Sparta Rotterdam side who have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions, including their most recent assignment which produced four goals as they drew 2-2 with Fortuna Sittard. 

Sparta could move to within two points of Nijmegen with a win here, so there is plenty of motivation for the home side to take a few points off their opponents in what is a very competitive battle for European qualification in the Eredivisie.

These two sides are at the opposite ends of the Bundesliga, and still have plenty to fight for with Leipzig chasing a spot in Europe after missing out on any European competition altogether last season, while Wolfsburg are trying to pull themselves away from the drop zone.

Leipzig have an impressive record at home this term, winning seven of their 10 matches in front of their own fans. These games have produced 36 goals (3.6 per game), with Leipzig notably netting 23 goals across these matches. It is very unlikely that Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in this clash, seeing as they’ve only kept one shut out all season.

Wolfsburg desperately need the points here after a torrid recent run which has seen them lose each of their last three matches in the Bundesliga. Their most recent assignment produced exactly three goals as they lost 2-1 to Dortmund at home, which is a result that sees them sit just two points above St Pauli - and level with Werder Bremen.

Wigan were beaten 2-1 by Reading on Tuesday night, a result which deepens their troubles in the relegation zone of League One. They now sit in the bottom three, only two points adrift of safety, but there has been no real sign of improvement after four successive league defeats.

Last weekend’s 6-1 defeat against Peterborough was their most recent away outing, highlighting a vulnerability on the road. Wigan’s away record now stands at two wins, seven draws, and seven losses from 16 League One matches, with 18 goals scored and 30 conceded. It has been a really poor season for the Tics, as they haven’t really been able to exert any control on their games.

Arsenal are likely to rotate this weekend, but the depth at Mikel Arteta’s disposal means they can still field a very strong eleven - there is a massive gulf in quality between these two sides.

Arsenal are accustomed to coming into matches as favourites, but they are an especially short price to win this weekend. They faced Portsmouth in the previous round of the FA Cup and, despite going 1-0 down inside three minutes, responded to comfortably win that game 4-1. Arsenal were able to press home their advantage after going down, and they racked up eight corners.

It is also worth noting that Wigan are a division below Portsmouth, and Arsenal now have home advantage. The Gunners should be able to control proceedings from the off, and this one is expected to be one-way traffic.

Arsenal are averaging 6.05 corners per game across all competitions this season, but that is mostly against Premier League and Champions League opponents. Mikel Arteta’s men should be able to sustain pressure at the Emirates, and Portsmouth will likely have to endure wave after wave of attacks.

Gabriel Martinelli delivered a standout performance against Portsmouth in the previous FA Cup round, helping himself to a hat-trick. The Brazilian registered six shots in total, and even missed two big chances, underlining just how frequently he was finding space in dangerous areas. All three of his goals came from inside the six-yard box, simple finishes that highlighted Arsenal’s ability to cut through their opponents.

Martinelli has not featured as regularly as he might have hoped this season, so he will be eager to seize his opportunity here. He now has ten goals across all competitions, matching last season’s tally, and this fixture is the perfect opportunity for him to get on the scoresheet again

In Wigan’s heavy defeat to Peterborough, Kyrell Lisbie fired in a hat-trick from the left wing, operating in a similar zone to Martinelli, which bodes well for this selection.

Eberechi Eze has not quite enjoyed the level of involvement he would have anticipated since joining Arsenal in the summer, as the Englishman has been reduced to a bench role by Arteta. However, Eze did play the full 90 minutes in the previous round against Portsmouth, where he registered two shots, one of which hit the target.

Eze has only shown glimpses of his quality this far, but this type of fixture should allow him to operate with greater freedom between the lines. He will likely occupy central areas just outside the box, where he is comfortable receiving on the half turn and getting shots off.

Despite his limited game time, Eze is averaging 1.96 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and he draws an excellent matchup here to increase that figure. He hopes to use this opportunity to try to make a case to start in the bigger games.