We’re pitting Kvaratskhelia up against Stanisic, who admittedly doesn’t have standout foul numbers but I think he’ll struggle at times with the rotations and movement of the PSG front three.

Kvaratskhelia (2.42 fouls won per 90) and Doue (1.87 fouls won per 90) switch positions all the time, there isn’t a defined structure to the PSG frontline so Stanisic will find himself up against a variety of opponents who are all pretty good at winning fouls.

He’ll also have to contend with Nuno Mendes at times when the fullbacks meet in advanced areas. Mendes has won 20 fouls across his 15 starts in the Champions League this season (1.50 per 90), adding to the threat posed by Doue and Kvaratskhelia. 

Kvaratskhelia is such a difficult player to stop when he gets going, he didn’t quite manage to show this side of his game in the first leg with Bayern only committing four fouls - but I’d expect that to increase here and Kvaratskhelia to be a real threat operating down either wing.

Kvaratskhelia has won 26 fouls across his 12 starts in the Champions League this season (2.42 per 90), and is also averaging 2.14 successful dribbles per 90 in the competition. He’s been fouled 4+ times in two of his last five Champions League appearances, showing how the winger can draw challenges with ease when he’s at his best.

This selection has been boosted from 38/1, and was already 25/1 with some bookmakers. We're getting great value at 50/1, here's my thinking 👇

Kane & Dembele

Both Kane and Dembele found the back of the net in the first leg meeting between the sides last week and both crucially also managed a shot on target either side of half time. I’m backing both to do the same again this week in a clash that should be just as frantic and fast paced as the meeting at the Parc Des Princes.

Neither side showed any defensive discipline in the first leg so we can expect the frontlines to come out on top again. There were 13 combined shots on target in the nine-goal thriller last week, and the bookmakers expect at least 14 here (14+ SOT @ 1.72) as well as 33 match shots (33+ shots @ 1.83).

Kane is as short as 1.11 for a shot on target here and his record is impossible to ignore, he’s scored in each of his last six matches in the Champions League and has found the target 24 times across his 11 starts in the competition (2.28 per 90).

Dembele is priced at 1.30 for an effort on target, and has found the target twice in three of his last five matches in the Champions League. He carried PSG to the trophy last term and looks just as likely this time around to fire them to the final - averaging 1.60 shots on target per 90 across his nine appearances overall.

Cards

I’d expect an increase in the foul and card numbers here compared to the first leg given what is on the line for both sides and with the tie being so close despite nine goals last week. The referee for this game is Joao Pinheiro who has struggled to keep his cards in his pocket in the Champions League, handing out 28 cautions across his seven appointments in the competition (4.00 per game).

PSG committed 14 fouls and picked up one yellow card in the first leg, their numbers should naturally increase as the side with the advantage and now being the away side. PSG have picked up 11 yellow cards in the Champions League this season, but that number covers matches in the league phase were PSG were so dominant that some games never really materialised into a proper contest.

The same can be said for Bayern who have actually picked up 11 more cards than PSG in the Champions League, despite playing two fewer games. They picked up four cards on their trip to the Parc Des Princes in the league phase and should improve on the four fouls they committed in the first leg last week.

Corners

Both sides have shown that they can register decent corner counts in the Champions League this season with Bayern winning five in the first leg last week, and PSG racking up nine when they lost to Bayern in the league phase of the competition. PSG also scored from a corner last week, so it could be an avenue that both sides look to as they attempt to progress to the Champions League final.

Bayern are averaging 5.77 corners per game in the Champions League this season, winning 75 across their 13 matches in the competition. PSG are a bit further down the corner table, but still have a decent record having registered 82 corners across their 15 matches in the Champions League (5.47 per game).

It’s difficult to find value in a game that promises so much in terms of attacking output. There were 13 shots on target in the first leg, eight of which came from Bayern. To find value, you’ve got to look outside the obvious picks, that’s what led me to Joshua Kimmich.

Kimmich averages 0.46 SoT per 90, which isn’t amazing, but it’s workable. He had a late shot on target last week with a header, which meant this selection has landed in two of his last three and three of his last five.

He managed a shot on target in the last round against Madrid and in the RO16 against Atalanta. In their last away CL game against Liverpool, they conceded four shots and one on target to Ryan Gravenberch, as well as a built edge chance to Alexis Mac Allister; showing they have some vulnerability to midfield runners.

After nine goals in the last game, I’m expecting plenty of chances here - especially with the hosts being a goal down.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has scored more goals than any other PSG player in the Champions League this season (10), adding two goals to his tally in the first leg as he helped PSG record a 5-4 win over Bayern Munich in Paris.

Interestingly, he’s the most generously priced of the forward players for a shot on target here. The market is understandably quite short in general after the nine goal thriller we had last week, but this is still at a decent price given Kvaratskhelia’s overall shot and shot on target record in the Champions League.

Kvaratskhelia has taken 44 shots across his 12 starts in the Champions League this season (4.10 per 90), seeing 16 of these efforts find the target (1.49 per 90). He’s actually scored more goals in the Champions League than he has in Ligue 1 (7), showing just how much Kvaratskhelia loves this competition and I think he’ll be able to make a positive impact again.

Joao Neves committed a foul in the first leg meeting between the sides last week and generally is the most aggressive of the PSG midfield trio. He’s committed nine fouls across his 11 starts in the Champions League this season (0.87 per 90), and I’d expect him to get through a bit more work here now that PSG are the away side.

PSG employ a counter press which allows them to suffocate the opposition. This doesn’t work as effectively against a side like Bayern who are willing to match that intensity, but it does still lead to Neves and the front three of PSG being roped into challenges to stop the opposition finding a way through their structure. 

I’m particularly interested in Joao Neves’ battle with Jamal Musiala, who has won six fouls across his two starts in the Champions League this season (2.29 per 90). This is a small sample size, but winning fouls is a strong part of Musiala’s game. Bayern drew 14 fouls from PSG in the first leg meeting, committing just four fouls themselves in the game.

Bayern Munich were not that aggressive in the first leg meeting, but that attitude is likely to change here given that they are trailing in the tie and need to win to get through to the final for the first time under Vincent Kompany.

Bayern Munich have collected 22 yellow cards across their 13 Champions League matches this season (1.69 per 90) and have also picked up two red cards. They picked up four cards when travelling to the Parc Des Princes in the league phase of the competition, including a red card which was shown to Luis Diaz.

The referee for this game is Joao Pinherio who has handed out 28 yellow cards across his seven appointments in the Champions League this season (4.00 per game). Context is a real driver here, but Bayern’s card record is still pretty solid in the Champions League and the referee appointment should also help see them collect at least two cards here.

The first leg meeting between the side produced seven corners, we’re after a few more here in another selection where the context should be a key driver with there only being one goal between the sides from the first leg thriller. 

There were exactly 10 match corners when these sides met earlier on in the league phase of the Champions League, with PSG taking advantage of Bayern Munich dropping down to 10 men on that occasion and winning nine of these corners. 

Bayern are seeing 9.31 match corners per game in the Champions League this season, so we’re looking for a small increase in their average numbers which should be able to come with the context that surrounds this game with both European heavyweights being just one game away from a Champions League final, in which they’d likely be favourites against either Arsenal or Atletico Madrid.

Palace came away 3-1 winners in the first leg meeting, scoring after just one minute.

Shakhtar have only kept one clean sheet in their last five matches across all competitions, and have failed to win each of their last two away matches in the competition.

Crystal Palace have only lost one Conference League game at home this season.

The first leg meeting between these sides produced three goals as Braga came away 2-1 winners.

Freiburg have seen 2+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, failing to keep a clean sheet in any of these games.

Braga have seen 2+ goals in each of their last five Europa League matches.

Aston Villa have drawn more fouls and cards than any other side in the Premier League this season.

Forest committed 20 fouls and picked up two cards on their last trip to Villa Park. They also committed 15 fouls and picked up 2+ cards when the sides last met in the Premier League.

Forest have collected 23 yellow cards in the Europa League this season.

Strasbourg have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, seeing 3+ goals in three of these games.

Strasbourg overturned a first leg deficit in the quarter final of the Conference League, scoring four goals in the home game to win the tie.

Rayo Vallecano have seen 3+ goals in three of their last five Conference League matches.

Sarr has scored more goals than any other player in the Conference League this season (8).

Sarr scored the quickest goal in Conference League history with his strike against Shakhtar last week after just one minute.

Sarr has scored 18 goals across all competitions for Oliver Glasner’s side this season.

Ollie Watkins has scored four goals across his eight starts in the Europa League this season.

Ollie Watkins has netted three goals in his last five starts for Aston Villa across all competitions.

Watkins scored the last time that Villa welcomed Forest to Villa Park, with Unai Emery’s side coming away 3-1 winners in that game. 

No Strasbourg player has scored more goals than Godo in the Conference League this season (4).

Godo has also netted eight goals across his 15 starts in Ligue 1 this season.

Strasbourg overturned a first leg deficit in the last round to come away 4-0 winners over Mainz in the second leg.