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Spain have grown into the tournament after their 0-0 draw against Cape Verde, beating both Saudi Arabia and Uruguay. They face off against an Austria side that has failed to keep a clean sheet so far, conceding 2+ goals in two of their group games against Argentina and Algeria.

Austria have averaged 3.34 corners per game at the World Cup so far, having at least three corners in all three of their matches.

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Lamine Yamal scored his first ever goal at a World Cup against Saudi Arabia, getting on the end of a cross from Oyarzabal. He registered 41 goal contributions across just 45 appearances for Barcelona during the 25/26 campaign, with that tally including his best ever return in front of goal (24).

He's also registered 18 goal contributions across his 28 caps for Spain, including five goal contributions across six starts as Spain won the European Championships a few years ago. Yamal is built for these occasions and is clearly Spain's most influential player - he should get chances against an Austria side that are yet to keep a clean sheet at the World Cup.

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Lamine Yamal scored his first ever goal at a World Cup against Saudi Arabia, getting on the end of a cross from Oyarzabal. He registered 41 goal contributions across just 45 appearances for Barcelona during the 25/26 campaign, with that tally including his best ever return in front of goal (24).

He's also registered 18 goal contributions across his 28 caps for Spain, including five goal contributions across six starts as Spain won the European Championships a few years ago. Yamal is built for these occasions and is clearly Spain's most influential player - he should get chances against an Austria side that are yet to keep a clean sheet at the World Cup.

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Spain have led at halftime in each of their last two games and are yet to concede a goal at the World Cup.

Austria were behind at halftime in their group stage clash against Argentina and have conceded six goals at the World Cup, failing to keep a clean sheet in any of their three matches.

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Austria’s games generally tend to be quite open and entertaining, with their energetic style of play that revolves around pressing high. They’ve seen 3+ goals in two of their three games at the World Cup so far, with their most recent game ending 3-3.

Austria saw 26 goals across their eight qualifying matches (3.25 per game), and I think they have enough quality to get on the scoresheet in this clash with Spain’s backline really yet to be properly tested, having faced off against Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde, and a lacklustre Uruguay side.

Spain have had to battle through some tight games so far, but they are capable of competing in a high-scoring environment too. Five of their six qualifying games saw 3+ goals, and with Yamal continuing to build to full fitness, you would expect Spain to continue to improve in the final third.

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Spain are yet to concede at the World Cup, and while Unai Simon hasn’t been the busiest keeper so far, I expect him to be tested here more regularly than he has been in Spain’s games at the World Cup so far.

Unai Simon has been forced into making exactly one save in all three of his games at the World Cup and also maintained an average of 1.67 saves per 90 across his six starts during qualifying - keeping five clean sheets across these matches. 

Austria have forced a save from the opposition keeper in two of their three games so far, except for their 3-3 draw with Algeria last time out in which they were clinical and scored with all three efforts on target. 

Mikel Oyarzabal is the perfect striker for this Spain side, offering Luis de la Fuente the ideal balance between his two wide players with how he can drop a bit deeper at times and link up with Spain’s talented midfield trio.

His movement causes real problems, but he’s still a threat in the final third himself as well as being an asset to the team. Oyarzabal has scored two goals at the World Cup so far, both coming against Saudi Arabia, from 11 shots overall (4.69 per 90). He’s seen four of these efforts find the target (1.71 per 90) and scored six goals across six starts in qualifying for Spain.

Oyarzabal averaged 2.42 shots on target per 90 during the qualifying campaign and has scored 27 goals across his 56 caps for Spain, which is a pretty solid international record. He also scored 15 goals for Real Sociedad during the 25/26 campaign from an average of 1.19 shots on target per 90. 

Sabitzer tends to play quite high up for his national side, which makes him a shot threat. 

This is reflected in his shot numbers so far; he’s taken five efforts across his three starts (1.67 per 90), with four of these efforts notably coming from outside the box. He’s on free kicks for Austria and managed a shot on target from this situation in Austria’s defeat to Argentina during the group stage. 

He scored three goals across eight starts for Austria during qualifying from 24 shots (3.08 per 90). He also impressed for Austria at the most recent European Championships, taking 12 shots across his four starts (3.00 per 90). 

Konrad Laimer is a really aggressive player, though he’s also quite versatile, and I could see him filling in quite a few different roles for Austria here over the course of the 90 minutes.

Laimer can play as a fullback, midfielder, or even in the final third with his diverse skillset, but one area of his game that tends to stay consistent is his foul count. He’s committed four fouls across his three starts at the World Cup so far (1.33 per 90), and averaged 2.27 fouls committed per 90 during qualifying.

His numbers in the Champions League from the most recent campaign are also promising. He committed 20 fouls across his 10 starts in the competition (2.11 per 90), mainly operating as a fullback.

I can see Laimer being tasked with dealing with Lamine Yamal at times in this game, who averaged 2.06 fouls won per 90 during the most recent campaign and usually requires the attention of at least two players to stop him. 

Lamine Yamal has had to watch the likes of Mbappe, Haaland, and Messi light up this World Cup with a touch of frustration, as the winger still isn’t quite fully fit, but will be determined to make his mark at this World Cup with Spain looking to have a decent route through to the final stages.

Yamal has scored once from eight shots at the World Cup so far (5.14 per 90). This shot volume may look inflated, but he averaged 4.64 shots per 90 across his 26 starts for Barcelona in LaLiga during the 25/26 campaign and has generally focused more on being a threat in front of goal this term - which is reflected by his tally of 24 goals across all competitions, his best ever return. 

He had 11 shots across just two starts in qualifying for Spain (6.51 per 90), seeing four of these efforts find the target (2.37 per 90). He may not quite be at 100% fitness, but he’s clearly a player who can provide for Spain at this level, and I back him to find the target at least twice.

Pedri is such an impressive player and was fouled three times inside just 60 minutes in Spain’s narrow win over Uruguay last time out. It’s the first time he’s won fouls at the tournament, with both Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia being very passive against Spain, which is to be expected given the obvious gap in quality between the nations.

Austria will fancy themselves a bit more and engage with Spain a bit higher up the pitch. Pedri is a natural target for fouls due to how much influence he has on the game. He usually sits around 85-100 touches per 90 for club and country, so if you want to stop Spain, the first port of call is often to harass and nullify Pedri. 

He won 24 fouls across just nine starts during the 25/26 Champions League campaign (3.11 per 90) and can be targeted here by an aggressive Austria side, who are averaging just shy of 11.0 fouls per game and committed 13 fouls in their 2-0 defeat to Argentina, which is probably the most comparable fixture to this one from their group stage assignments. 

I’ve already touched on how aggressive Laimer can be, and I expect him to be in with a chance of picking up a caution.  Card betting has been frustrating at the World Cup so far, with more examples yesterday of referees being far too lenient with obvious yellow card challenges.

That being said, Laimer has a strong individual record when it comes to collecting cautions. He picked up a yellow card in Austria’s loss to Argentina, and received a red card in a friendly just before the tournament started. 

He picked up one yellow card across his eight starts in qualifying for Austria, with an average of 2.27 fouls committed per 90. Laimer also collected four yellow cards across his 10 starts in the Champions League during the 25/26 campaign, showing his tendency to pick up cautions in high-profile situations.

Marc Cucurella is usually fired up for these sort of games. He’s been a bit conservative so far, but having watched him regularly for Chelsea last season, these are the type of games where you see the fullback be very aggressive and almost ratty with his challenges.

Cucurella is very good in 1v1 duels; he’s excellent at locking down a direct opponent, but I’ve found he struggles a bit more when he doesn’t have this clear assignment. He won’t have a danger man to keep an eye on here with Austria being quite fluid in forward areas, so I could see situations where Cucurella is out of position and has to make tactical challenges.

He picked up eight yellow cards and one red card for Chelsea in the Premier League during the 25/26 campaign, showing a pretty decent consistency when it comes to collecting cards, and I think Austria’s main success here could come through attacking the wide areas. 

This should be quite an open game, Austria play with a lot of intensity and won’t just sit back and allow Spain to dictate proceedings - I think they can get on the scoresheet, given that they put three past Algeria in their final group game.

Spain clicked into gear after their first group game, which was a disappointing 0-0 draw against Cape Verde. They won their second game 4-0, before edging past Uruguay with a 1-0 victory. Lamine Yamal scored against Saudi Arabia to get his first-ever goal at a World Cup, also having the most touches in the opposition box (5) v Uruguay.

Austria conceded as many goals as they scored in the group stage (6), showing just how volatile Ralf Rangnick’s system is. Austria will definitely get after Spain, but they lack the defensive resolve and balance to keep Luis de la Fuente’s side out at the other end.

Lamine Yamal scored his first ever goal at a World Cup against Saudi Arabia, getting on the end of a cross from Oyarzabal. He registered 41 goal contributions across just 45 appearances for Barcelona during the 25/26 campaign, with that tally including his best ever return in front of goal (24).

He's also registered 18 goal contributions across his 28 caps for Spain, including five goal contributions across six starts as Spain won the European Championships a few years ago. Yamal is built for these occasions and is clearly Spain's most influential player - he should get chances against an Austria side that are yet to keep a clean sheet at the World Cup.

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I don’t trust the backline of this Portugal side and think they will need to rely on Diogo Costa at times to get them through this tie.

Diogo Costa is a pretty solid keeper and should be able to stand up to the attacking threat of Croatia, who showed they can cause problems with the two goals they scored against England in their opening game of the tournament.

He’s had to make nine saves already at the World Cup across his three starts (3.00 per 90) with a save percentage of 90% - only three keepers of the sides left in the competition can boast a better save percentage than the Porto keeper. 

Portugal’s vulnerability at the back was exposed on a few occasions by Colombia last time out, who managed to draw six saves from Diogo Costa, showing how the keeper will be crucial to any success that Portugal have at the World Cup.

These nations have met quite often over the last few years, with each of the last three head-to-head meetings since 2024 seeing 2+ goals.

I’ve already mentioned the vulnerability of this Portuguese backline, and Croatia could fall into the same bracket. They conceded four goals against England in their opening game, and haven’t really been tested by Panama or Ghana in their other group matches.

Portugal saw 2+ goals in two of their three group matches, except a 0-0 draw against Colombia, which should have really produced a few goals with a combined xG of 2.63 from 36 shots overall. 

Joao Cancelo has committed three fouls at the World Cup so far (2.00 per 90) and has been replaced at half time twice, with Roberto Martinez clearly not comfortable with the options he has down that side of the pitch.

I think Croatia will look to target this side of the pitch; it’s much weaker than the opposite flank where Portugal have Nuno Mendes operating, so it’s the glaring weak spot in this Portuguese side. Cancelo is very effective going forward but can be clumsy with his challenges; he averaged 1.57 fouls committed per 90 across his four starts for Portugal during qualifying.

Cristiano Ronaldo is going to be more determined than ever to win this World Cup. It’s the only trophy missing from his illustrious career, and he probably won’t get another chance given that he’ll be nearly 45 by the time the next World Cup rolls around.

Ronaldo’s shot volume is really high. He’s taken 13 shots across his three starts at the World Cup so far (4.33 per 90), seeing six of those efforts find the target (2.00 per 90). He was just as trigger-happy during Portugal’s qualifying game with 31 shots across just five starts (7.44 per 90), seeing 12 of those attempts find the target (2.88 per 90).

It’s clear that Roberto Martinez is going to stick with Ronaldo throughout the tournament regardless of his form or how he impacts the rest of the side, so Portugal don’t really have any option other than to play to the strengths of the 41-year-old who has 145 international goals to his name across 231 caps. 

Alex Baena scored the only goal for Spain in their final group stage game against Uruguay, earning his side the three points to secure top spot in their group. Baena saw plenty of involvement in that match, as he also racked up four fouls and was booked. He looked eager to get involved and contribute for his side, so is likely to keep his starting spot on the right wing here. 

Since Euro 2024 ended, Baena has featured sporadically for the national side, but across 14 starts he is averaging 1.83 fouls per 90, which is impressively high for a side like Spain, who tend to dominate possession. Even at club level, Baena averaged 1.72 fouls per 90 on the wing for Atletico Madrid this season, picking up nine yellow cards from his 46 appearances across all competitions.

Nikola Vlasic was also the hero for his side in the final group stage game, as he found the back of the net for Croatia against Ghana in the 83rd minute for what proved to be the winner. That goal came from a somewhat unlikely source given that Vlasic only started one of Croatia's qualifying matches, but the former West Ham man will hope to remain in the starting XI for this knockout fixture. 

Vlasic committed two fouls in that recent World Cup start, highlighting how he often tracks back to help his full back defensively. He averaged 1.26 fouls per 90 for Torino this season alongside 1.99 tackles per 90, which exemplifies those defensive contributions. Vlasic will be directly up against Nuno Mendes on the flank here - the PSG left back has drawn nine fouls across his three World Cup starts so far.

Joao Cancelo has already landed this selection in two of his three Portugal appearances at this World Cup, committing two fouls against DR Congo in round one and another two against Uzbekistan in round two. This upcoming round of 32 tie against Croatia promises to be a tougher challenge, and Cancelo will have a tough matchup on the flank here. 

Martin Baturina has been starting on the left for Croatia at the World Cup, and he has been fouled 14 times across his three group stage starts. He is a very tricky player to contain, with an ability to change direction quickly, making him adept at winning free kicks and drawing contact. Cancelo has often looked uncomfortable when asked to defend against direct wide players, and he should have plenty of defensive work to get through here against Croatia.

Australia deserve credit for being clinical on the break when chances did fall to them, and it finished 2-0.

Egypt have been one of the more entertaining sides to watch at the World Cup so far, and BTTS landed in all three of their group stages.

Unlike their approach at AFCON, the Pharaohs have played with a lot more attacking intent, and their games have been quite open at times, with chances available at both ends.

Australia are likely to sit deep here, but they have shown they can cause real problems on the break. With that being said, it will take a massive effort to keep the Egyptian front line at bay, given the quality they have.

Australia finished second in Group D with four points and have now been dealt a tough draw against Egypt here.

The Pharaohs had an encouraging group stage campaign during which they went unbeaten - Egypt took a point from Belgium in round one in what was a notable upset, before beating New Zealand 3-1.

They then held on to a point against Iran, meaning they finished second in Group G, only behind Belgium on goal difference. 

Egypt have the stronger side, and they will fancy their chances of making it past Australia, who were slightly fortunate to make it to the knockouts.

They secured a massive three points against Turkey in round one, but it was far from convincing - they conceded 30 shots, forcing Patrick Beach into eight crucial saves.

Omar Marmoush was rested against Iran in the final group game for Egypt, but the Man City man looks set to return to the starting lineup against Australia here to lead the line.

He is one of the most promising attacking talents in this Egypt squad, and this matchup looks a very favourable one for him, given that the Socceroos conceded 47 shots across their three group stage games. 

Marmoush is a livewire in the final third - he had five shots against Belgium in round one, before adding another three to his tally against New Zealand, so he has every reason to be looking forward to this matchup.

Marmoush has already drawn seven fouls at this World Cup, averaging 3.0 fouls drawn per 90.

Harry Souttar will have the tough task of trying to contain the 27-year-old, and that looks like a bit of a mismatch. Souttar is a very physical presence, but he doesn’t quite have the agility to deal with this rapid Egyptian attack. 

The centre-back has committed four fouls at the World Cup already, with three of those coming against the USA in round two.

Souttar looked quite rusty in that one, which comes as no surprise given he missed the vast majority of the 25/26 season through injury. He started just two Championship games before the tournament.

With six fouls drawn at the World Cup so far, no Australia player has been more adept at getting free-kicks than Aiden O'Neill.

Australia have only been fouled 24 times as a team in the competition so far, and O'Neill has accounted for exactly one quarter of those infringements.

He is a key player in the heart of midfield, crucial for alleviating pressure on his side and allowing them to establish themselves in possession.

Egypt can often be quite aggressive in their press in midfield, and they racked up 15 infringements against Belgium in round one. With this game being a knockout tie, tensions will be higher than usual, which makes fouls a target.

Once again, Mo Salah has been the standout player for Egypt in an international competition, and he has contributed directly to three out of five goals for his side at the World Cup so far.

Salah provided the assist for Emam Ashour in round one against Belgium, before finding the net himself and opening his account against New Zealand in the following game. 

The 34-year-old assisted Mahmoud Trezeguet soon after to help Egypt secure a massive three points. Salah has been operating in a more central role at this World Cup, given the freedom to roam around and pick up pockets of space, rather than being glued to the touchline.

That has massively increased his threat in the final third, and he will also be the designated penalty taker for Egypt here.

Mo Salah is always the player whom opponents keep an eye on, and he continues to be a difficult player to contain. Alessandro Circati could be in for a testing match, with Egypt likely to dominate proceedings.

The centre-back was carded against the USA in Australia's toughest matchup during the group stages, and he is likely to have his hands full again here.

Circati picked up six yellow cards from 31 appearances playing for Parma in Serie A this season, which shows how he likes to be aggressive and engage in duels.

Egypt are averaging 14.0 fouls drawn per game at the World Cup, with a large proportion of those infringements concentrated on their attacking players.

Marwan Attia was rested in Egypt's final group stage match against Iran, only featuring for the second half, but he looks set to reclaim his starting place here following Mohanad Lasheen's suspension.

Lasheen had featured in every available minute for Egypt at the World Cup so far, but he picked up his second yellow of the tournament against Iran, which means he will miss out against Australia.

Attia will have a massive role here in the double pivot, looking to win the ball back high up the field to cut out opposing counter attacks.

The 27-year-old was booked in two of his five AFCON starts, as well as picking up four yellow cards from eight of Egypt’s qualifying appearances.

Aziz Behich was introduced for his first start of the World Cup against Paraguay last time out, which saw Jordan Bos shift over to the opposite flank. It is the opposite side to the one he naturally prefers, but Bos was the standout performer against Paraguay and came closest to scoring for his side.

He had three shots with two hitting the target, and he was constantly looking to cut inside onto his stronger foot which opened up the angles for shots. 

Bos had an average of 1.61 shots per 90 for Feyenoord this season, which shows that he has an eye for goal, despite being listed as a wingback.

Cape Verde have impressed everyone at this World Cup so far, and their ability to sit deep and frustrate opponents has yielded success up until this point.

They drew 0-0 with European champions Spain in their opening match, before also taking a point from Uruguay and Saudi Arabia. That earned Cape Verde second position in the group to qualify for the knockouts. 

However, this matchup against Argentina promises to be their biggest test yet, and there is a massive gulf in quality between the two sides on paper. The reigning world champions have won all three group games convincingly, and they have had an eleven-day rest since beating Jordan.

Cape Verde’s run has been admirable, but keeping Argentina at bay looks like too much of a challenge.

Cape Verde have played out two goalless stalemates so far, and the other match finished 2-2 against Uruguay.

Their game plan will be to sit deep, but Argentina have way too much firepower, and it seems unlikely that any side will be able to keep them out. Argentina have already scored eight goals in their three matches. 

If Lionel Scaloni’s side find the back of the net early on, Cape Verde will have to be a bit more front-footed in their approach, which could open up space for Argentina.

The South American side simply have too much talent in the final third here, which makes goals a target.

When opponents adopt a low block and sit deep, Enzo Fernandez is given a much greater license to push forward from midfield and arrive in advanced positions.

He had an impressive domestic season for Chelsea, bagging 15 goals in 54 appearances across all competitions, which shows how he can cause problems when arriving late in the box. He was pushed forward into an advanced midfield role at times for the Blues, which explains why he had his most prolific season to date in terms of goals scored.  

Messi has accounted for a large portion of Argentina’s shots so far, but Enzo Fernandez recorded two efforts against Austria in his last start.

Lautaro Martinez finally opened his goalscoring account at the World Cup last time out, as he scored against Jordan to end the group stages on a high. He has been chosen by Scaloni as the man to lead the line, and he should be full of confidence against Cape Verde. 

Lautaro offers more than just a threat in the box - he presses relentlessly from the front, giving opposing defenders no time on the ball, which allows Argentina to win the ball back quickly.

The Inter Milan skipper can at times be a bit aggressive in his challenges, and he has committed a foul in all three matches at the World Cup. That includes landing this selection against both Austria and Algeria.

Lionel Messi has been quite simply extraordinary at this World Cup - he scored a hat-trick against Algeria in round one before adding a brace against Austria.

He still managed to find the back of the net against Jordan in the final group stage game, despite only featuring off the bench. As it stands, no player has scored more goals than him at the 2026 World Cup, but Kylian Mbappe is currently level, after he scored a brace against Sweden.

Messi will want to create a bit of daylight here as he aims to win the Golden Boot, so expect the 39-year-old to be heavily involved in the final third once again.

Kevin Pina wrote himself into Cape Verde's history books by scoring their first-ever World Cup goal, and it was a memorable one.

Pina found the back of the net from a long-range free-kick against Uruguay. The Krasnodar midfielder plays in a defensive midfield position for his national side, but that doesn't stop him from getting forward to join attacks when they do counter. 

Pina has shown no hesitation in trying his luck from range whenever the space opens up in front of him. Because of that, he has registered a shot in every single World Cup match so far, including against Spain in the opening game.

Chances will be few and far between against Argentina, so they might have to rely on speculative efforts from range.

Alexis MacAllister is another player to target in the final third here, expecting Cape Verde to sit deep.

The Liverpool midfielder isn’t exactly renowned for his contributions in the final third, as he scored just five goals in 55 domestic appearances this season for the Reds.

However, he did land this selection in round one against Algeria, as one of his two efforts forced a save from the opposing goalkeeper. That also led to Messi scoring the rebound, so Mac Allister might be encouraged to let fly more often here. 

The 27-year-old scored twice in his 13 appearances for Argentina during their World Cup qualifying matches, finishing with an average of 1.12 shots per 90 in that time.

Sidny Lopes Cabral has been an interesting player for Cape Verde so far. He committed the only foul for his side in the opening game against Spain, and that was enough to earn him a booking after just 16 minutes.

The fullback again only needed one foul to find his way into the referee's notebook against Uruguay, which meant he was suspended for the final group game against Saudi Arabia. 

The Benfica man should return to the starting eleven here, and this will be his toughest matchup yet. Cabral has shown a tendency to fly recklessly into challenges so far, and he will have plenty of defensive work to get through against the World Cup title holders.

Nahuel Molina was one of several regular starters benched against Jordan, as Scaloni opted for rotation with top spot already secured.

However, the Argentina manager should revert to his usual eleven here, which means Molina to come in at left back. 

Not only is Cabral a target for cards, but he has been adept at drawing contact so far. He was fouled twice against Spain before accounting for five of Uruguay's 11 fouls.

With Cape Verde sitting deep, Molina should be able to push forward and find duels with Cabral here, which makes this foul price stand out.

Breel Embolo always performs on the international stage for Switzerland and has been impressive again at this World Cup with three goal contributions across his three starts.

He’s taken seven shots across those three games (2.39 per 90), finding the target on three occasions (1.02 per 90). He’s on penalties for Switzerland and will cause problems for the Algeria backline, aided by Johan Manzambi, who has also been impressive for Murat Yakin’s side.

Embolo has scored 25 goals across 89 caps for Switzerland, with four of those goals coming across six starts during qualifying. He found the target nine times across those games, working out to an average of 1.66 shots on target per 90.

Riyad Mahrez is still a really important figure in this Algeria side and scored twice against Austria last time out to set up this tie.

He’s had at least one shot in every game, finding the target against Jordan to go alongside the two goals he scored against Austria. He is on free kicks and penalties for Algeria, which can offer him an extra route to the target if he is limited from open play.

Mahrez has scored 40 goals across 97 caps for Algeria, which is a really consistent record at international level. He scored three goals across just four starts during AFCON earlier this year; all three of his efforts on target during that campaign ended up in the back of the net.

Did you know Xhaka has only committed one foul at the World Cup so far? 

It’s actually not one of his main attributes, despite the assumption that the Sunderland midfielder is always reckless. He has, however, won four fouls across his three starts at the World Cup (1.33 per 90).

Xhaka averaged 1.54 fouls won per 90 for Switzerland during the qualifying campaign, showing that winning fouls is actually a consistent part of his game when lining up for his nation.

Xhaka also maintained an average of 1.27 fouls won per 90 during the 25/26 Premier League season for Sunderland, a tally that was notably higher than his fouls committed average (0.71 per 90).

Algeria do have real attacking talent that can hurt a Swiss side that I haven’t been too impressed with so far. They haven’t really convinced me in any of their games so far, despite winning two matches, and I think they are struggling slightly with the weather conditions.

Algeria drew two saves from Alexander Schlager in their most recent game against Austria, and also forced six saves from Jordan’s keeper as they came away 2-1 winners in that clash.

They didn’t trouble Argentina in their opening game, but they have grown into the tournament and should be able to test Gregor Kobel, who has already been called into action on 11 occasions across his three matches (3.67 per 90) with a save percentage of 78.6%. 

Both of these sides will see this as a pretty favourable draw, especially seeing as the winner of this tie will face either Colombia or Ghana for a spot in the quarter-finals of the World Cup.

There are no easy games at the World Cup, but this is certainly the weakest portion of the draw and a chance for an unlikely side to emerge as an underdog. I think both sides set up to try and win the game rather than sit back and hope for penalties.

Both sides have seen 2+ goals in all three of their group games, with Algeria seeing 3+ goals in all three of their matches and notably failing to keep a clean sheet in any of those games. Switzerland are also without a shutout, conceding to the likes of Bosnia and Qatar across their group stage matches.

Luis Diaz has been one of Colombia’s most impactful players so far and was very unlucky not to find the target against Portugal last time out with four shots and the most touches of any player in the opposition box (seven).

Diaz has had 11 shots across his three starts at the World Cup (3.68 per 90), seeing three of those efforts find the target (1.00 per 90). He was crucial for Colombia during qualifying with seven goals across his 17 starts from 21 shots on target (1.28 per 90). 

Ghana will sit in a very deep block here and look to frustrate Colombia. The South American side have shown they aren’t afraid to take on efforts whenever the opportunity presents itself, with 15+ shots in all three games so far, clearing 20 shots in two of those matches.

Lucumi has committed four fouls across his three starts at the World Cup so far (1.33 per 90) and has also collected a yellow card during the tournament against DR Congo, which was a very similar game to the one Colombia can expect here.

Lucumi has committed a foul in all three of his games so far, committing two in Colombia’s opener against Uzbekistan. The centre back will have to deal with Jordan Ayew, who leads the line for Ghana and has always been very strong when it comes to winning fouls - drawing five across his three starts at the World Cup so far (2.00 per 90).

This selection lines up with how I think the game will pan out. Colombia have been shooting for fun at the World Cup, with 15+ shots in all three of their group games; they covered this shots on target line in two of their three group matches - falling just one shot on target short in their win over Uzbekistan.

Colombia averaged 5.34 shots on target per game during qualifying, so the trend of the South American side being willing to take on efforts from pretty much anywhere stretches far further back than the three group games, where they were really impressive at times. 

I also like this angle because it’s likely to take Colombia a while to find a way through this Ghana side. They didn’t break down DR Congo until the 76th minute, having 20 shots and nine shots on target in that game. 

When a side faces a deep block as stubborn as I expect Ghana’s to be here, the probing side usually end up with a decent corner count as the space tends to be in the wide areas and there are usually quite a few crosses.

Colombia have had 4+ corners in all three of their World Cup matches so far, managing 5+ corners in their last two matches against DR Congo and Portugal. Ghana allowed England to register nine corners when they held them to a 0-0 draw a few days ago, and I think Colombia can come away with just as healthy a corner count.

I’ve touched on how I think this game will unfold, with Ghana sitting deep and Colombia trying to break them down with a high shot count, which should lead to Ghana’s keeper being called into action on at least three occasions.

Colombia have had 15+ shots in all three of their games so far, managing 24 efforts against Portugal last time out. They’ve managed 4+ shots on target in all three of their games, clearing six shots on target against Portugal and DR Congo. What stands out from this shot volume is that Colombia will take aim from almost anywhere; their 20-shot haul against DR Congo only returned an xG of 0.98.

Ghana’s goalkeeper, Benjamin Asare, has been called into action eight times across his two starts at the World Cup after coming on in the opening game. This works out to an average of 3.20 saves per 90, with a save percentage of 80%.