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Heading into the weekend, no side has conceded more shots than Newcastle, they’ve conceded 97 shots in five games - 10 more than the next weakest team for that metric.

They’ve conceded that many shots against sides, heading into the weekend, sitting 6th, 20th, 17th, 5th and 8th, so it doesn’t appear that they’ve had a particularly challenging fixture list so far.

They’ve conceded 19.40 shots per game on average, comfortably landing this bet in each match by giving up 27. 17, 17, 15 and 22 shots.

If you take out their opening night trip to reigning champions Arsenal, Coventry are at 11.75 shots per game, so they’d only need to improve on that by just over one shot to land this bet, when they’re at home to the worst defence at limiting opposition shots.

Newcastle had way more players called up for international duty than Coventry, so they’re dealing with more disruption than their hosts ahead of this fixture as well.

If there’s one team worth keeping an eye on for goals in the Eliteserien right now, it’s Vålerenga. No side has seen more goals scored and conceded combined over their last five matches, with a total of 25. Their BTTS record is equally impressive, with both teams finding the net in five of their last six league games.

Their seven-match winless run in the Eliteserien largely comes down to a defence that simply cannot keep opponents out. Going forward, though, Vålerenga remain a real threat, averaging almost 16 shots per away game - the second-highest figure in the league, behind only Bodø/Glimt.

For hosts KFUM, there’s both encouragement and cause for concern. The positive is that they face a Vålerenga side with an xGA of 1.63. However, KFUM have defensive problems of their own, ranking among the league’s six teams to have conceded the most goals. Although they have picked up 17 of their 25 points at home, they still leave plenty of space for opponents to exploit. 

Take a look at Udinese’s away results: a 3-2 win over Monza followed by a 5-3 defeat to Inter. That’s six goals scored and seven conceded in just two away matches. One thing is clear: this is a side that isn’t afraid to take risks, even on the road.

The visitors consequently have the fourth-worst defensive record in Serie A heading into this round of fixtures. That offers encouragement for Torino, who have seen BTTS land in four of their five league matches so far. Both sides also stand out more for their defensive vulnerabilities than their attacking output, with Torino averaging 1.65 xGA and Udinese 1.81.

Torino have shown they can take advantage of opponents struggling defensively, as they did against Fiorentina. Monday’s meeting with Udinese could offer a similar opportunity, making Both Teams to Score an appealing option.

Levante have been a completely different proposition at home. They average 16 shots and 1.94 xG per game at their own ground, albeit from a small sample of just two matches. Against Betis and Barcelona, they scored seven goals and conceded six.

Sevilla have won two of their three away matches this season, drawing the other. Despite averaging just eight shots per away game, they have scored five goals across those fixtures. Their attacking consistency is also worth highlighting, having found the net in all seven league matches so far. Another encouraging statistic for this market is that BTTS has landed in five of their seven games this season.

Both sides are expected to have their key attacking players available, with Roger Brugué particularly worth keeping an eye on. Levante's top scorer has three goals in five appearances.

Harvey Barnes has started the season quite well for Newcastle, recording three goal contributions across his five starts in the Premier League from eight shots overall (1.60 per 90), seeing half of them find the target (0.80 per 90)

Barnes has been waiting for an opportunity to start games regularly at Newcastle having previously lived in the shadow of Anthony Gordon - who has now moved on to Barcelona, leaving Barnes as Newcastle’s main left winger this season.

Barnes should get plenty of success against this Coventry backline, which has conceded 10 goals across their five Premier League matches so far (2.0 per game) and Barnes netted seven goals across 19 starts last season - averaging 0.96 shots on target per 90. 

Jack Rudoni looks like one of the few Coventry players that could develop into a decent player at this level, but has still had to do quite a lot of work off the ball which has seen him commit five fouls across his four Premier League matches.

That works out to an average of 1.50 fouls committed per 90, which is a solid record that should extend here with Rudoni facing up against a Newcastle midfield who look strong on paper when it comes to winning fouls. 

Rudoni’s main opponent here is likely to be Nico Gonzalez, who has been fouled three times across his three Premier League appearances so far and averaged 1.03 fouls won per 90 across his 17 starts in the Premier League last season.

Bobby Thomas has been really good at winning fouls in the early stages of this campaign, drawing eight fouls across his five starts in the Premier League (1.64 per 90).

That’s a remarkable record for a centre back, but it’s an area where Thomas has shown consistency - averaging 0.77 fouls won per 90 across 33 starts in the Championship last season.

There’s a really good matchup for Thomas as well here as he faces up against Yoanne Wissa. The Newcastle forward has been really reckless with his challenges so far, committing 10 fouls across his five starts in the Premier League (2.04 per 90).

Lukas Hornicek has been the busiest keeper in the Premier League so far, having to make 2+ saves in all five of his games so far and 19 saves overall (3.80 per 90).

Hornicek is having to be so active due to Mathias Jaiselle's expansive style of play that has left Newcastle without much protection defensively. Newcastle have conceded an xG of 9.10 across their five Premier League matches, only keeping one clean sheet.

Hornicek played his football in Portugal for Braga last season, making 74 saves across his 33 starts (2.25 per 90), with a save percentage similar to the one he’s posted across the opening five games of the campaign (69.2%). 

Coventry have drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in all but one of their Premier League games so far this season, with that being against Arsenal in their opening game. They also forced Bizot and Suzuki to make four saves between them in their EFL Cup defeat to Villa.

Even Coventry’s heavy 5-0 defeat at home to Brighton before the international break saw Coventry test Verbruggen on six occasions - despite only having 30% of the ball. Even if Coventry really struggle, they are still offering enough of an attacking threat to test Hornicek on at least three occasions.

Jack Rudoni looks like one of the few Coventry players that could develop into a decent player at this level, but has still had to do quite a lot of work off the ball which has seen him commit five fouls across his four Premier League matches.

That works out to an average of 1.50 fouls committed per 90, which is a solid record that should extend here with Rudoni facing up against a Newcastle midfield who look strong on paper when it comes to winning fouls. 

Rudoni’s main opponent here is likely to be Nico Gonzalez, who has been fouled three times across his three Premier League appearances so far and averaged 1.03 fouls won per 90 across his 17 starts in the Premier League last season.

If there’s one team worth keeping an eye on for goals in the Eliteserien right now, it’s Vålerenga. No side has seen more goals scored and conceded combined over their last five matches, with a total of 25. Their BTTS record is equally impressive, with both teams finding the net in five of their last six league games.

Their seven-match winless run in the Eliteserien largely comes down to a defence that simply cannot keep opponents out. Going forward, though, Vålerenga remain a real threat, averaging almost 16 shots per away game - the second-highest figure in the league, behind only Bodø/Glimt.

For hosts KFUM, there’s both encouragement and cause for concern. The positive is that they face a Vålerenga side with an xGA of 1.63. However, KFUM have defensive problems of their own, ranking among the league’s six teams to have conceded the most goals. Although they have picked up 17 of their 25 points at home, they still leave plenty of space for opponents to exploit. 

Raffles Angel tops the board at 9.6, and she’s back at the track where she won last time out.

She took a Class 5 fillies’ handicap at Yarmouth over 6f 3y on 16 September, winning by half a length at 10/3 off a mark of 70 under Callum Shepherd - who keeps the ride today. That wasn’t a one-off at the course either: she also won over 6f at Yarmouth in September 2024, that time by a nose.

The wider pattern matters here. She’s run 20 times on turf since 2024 for five wins, a second and five thirds, but she’s 0 from 4 on the all-weather. This is a turf mare, and this is her turf track. Jack Jones took her over from Rae Guest and the yard has been showing strike rates in the 40-67% range on recent cards.

Lennon Miller certainly hasn't been holding back when it comes to committing fouls in the early stages of this Serie A season. With 12 fouls across the opening five rounds, he has committed the third-most fouls in Serie A. Despite playing just 254 minutes, he averages 4+ fouls per 90 minutes and has already picked up a yellow card.

One potential opponent is Simeone, who has won nine fouls and is among the most frequently fouled players in the home side's squad.

The striker is capable of playing between the centre-backs, dropping deep to receive possession and competing for second balls. If Miller retains his central midfield role for Udinese, he may be forced to track those movements, particularly when Simeone drops deep to receive the ball with his back to goal.

Another potential matchup is Cacciamani, who operates on the home side's left flank and has won six fouls in his last three appearances.

With Miller expected to start, his aggressive approach and the challenging individual matchups awaiting him suggest he could struggle to get through the game without picking up a booking.

Kike Pérez has committed at least one foul in four of his five Serie A appearances this season. He has also picked up two yellow cards, highlighting his involvement in Venezia’s defensive work.

Against Atalanta, he could find himself up against Éderson and Rowe, both of whom rank among the ten most-fouled players in Serie A this season.

Pérez operates in an area of the pitch where Atalanta are particularly active. With the home side expected to dominate possession and take the attacking initiative, the Venezia midfielder could be called upon to make even more defensive interventions than usual.

The referee is Paride Tremolada, who averages 5.8 yellow cards per game,  another factor that points towards a potentially card-heavy encounter.

Fizzy Cristal has won twice this year, and both wins came off an official rating of exactly 67 - which is the mark she runs off now. She won at Newcastle over 6f on 19 May at 11/1, then won again at Wolverhampton over 6f 20y on 18 August at 10/1 under Warren Fentiman, who takes the ride again.

Two further things line up. Both wins came on artificial surfaces, and tonight’s 19:00 at Newcastle is on the Tapeta. And her turf record is the opposite story — fourth at Chester, fifth at Doncaster, sixth at Catterick, sixth at Carlisle. She is an all-weather filly running at an all-weather track off her winning mark, at a track where she’s already won.

Simple Star landed the Join Racing TV Now Handicap at Musselburgh on 30 September over 1m 5f 216y, going off at 4/1 off a mark of 60 under Sam James.

The run was emphatic: held up in rear, rapid headway four out, disputing the lead two out, clearly in front inside the final 110 yards and running on well - the official comment calls it cosily. He beat Riddikulus by a length and a quarter and put the 7/4 favourite Falaise Blanc away.

Two details lift it further. That was his first win in five rides since arriving from Dianne Sayer’s Cumbria yard in July, and it ended a six-month winless run for Gary Rutherford’s Camptown stable. And his previous win was also at Musselburgh, also with Sam James aboard, in August 2025. He is a Musselburgh horse with a Musselburgh jockey.

Raffles Angel tops the board at 9.6, and she’s back at the track where she won last time out.

She took a Class 5 fillies’ handicap at Yarmouth over 6f 3y on 16 September, winning by half a length at 10/3 off a mark of 70 under Callum Shepherd - who keeps the ride today. That wasn’t a one-off at the course either: she also won over 6f at Yarmouth in September 2024, that time by a nose.

The wider pattern matters here. She’s run 20 times on turf since 2024 for five wins, a second and five thirds, but she’s 0 from 4 on the all-weather. This is a turf mare, and this is her turf track. Jack Jones took her over from Rae Guest and the yard has been showing strike rates in the 40-67% range on recent cards.

Monhammer won over this course and distance twelve days ago and comes straight back for more.

On 30 September he took a Class 6 handicap at Musselburgh over 7f on good to soft, beating ten rivals by three quarters of a length at 5/1 under C Lee. Lee retains the ride. He carries the course-and-distance flag, which for an eight-year-old who’s spent most of his career round Musselburgh and Ayr is worth real weight.

Linda Perratt’s Strathclyde yard is a specialist operation with older horses, over the last five seasons her 4yo+ all-weather runners have delivered 49 wins from 374 at 13% and a profit of over £112 to £1 level stakes, comfortably her strongest category.

Raffles Angel tops the board at 9.6, and she’s back at the track where she won last time out.

She took a Class 5 fillies’ handicap at Yarmouth over 6f 3y on 16 September, winning by half a length at 10/3 off a mark of 70 under Callum Shepherd - who keeps the ride today. That wasn’t a one-off at the course either: she also won over 6f at Yarmouth in September 2024, that time by a nose.

The wider pattern matters here. She’s run 20 times on turf since 2024 for five wins, a second and five thirds, but she’s 0 from 4 on the all-weather. This is a turf mare, and this is her turf track. Jack Jones took her over from Rae Guest and the yard has been showing strike rates in the 40-67% range on recent cards.

Maria Da Silva is the class act of the five on breeding and connections. She’s by Showcasing out of Golden Hind - a smart Balding mare in her own right - runs in the Nick Bradley Racing colours, and Andrew Balding’s Kingsclere yard has nine winners from 66 runners in the past fortnight at 14%.

Her form reads 6-1144. She was nowhere on debut, twenty-third of twenty-six in a £97,000 Class 2 at Newmarket at 66/1, then came back as a three-year-old and won twice on the bounce. P J McDonald rides. The race is a Class 5 fillies’ handicap over 1m 5y.

Bryan Mbeumo has been in decent goalscoring form so far this season, netting three goals across his six starts in the Premier League - with the latest goal coming against Tottenham at the weekend.

Mbeumo has always been a very solid finisher, and could find himself leading the line again here with Benjamin Sesko still being a doubt for the game. He registered an assist in United’s convincing 4-0 win over Sabah in thru first Champions League game and had one shot on target in that clash.

Mbeumo scored 11 goals in the Premier League last season, taking 73 shots across his 31 starts in the competition (2.51 per 90). 32 of these efforts found the target (1.10 per 90), which is a solid record over a decent sample size to suggest that Mbeumo will find the target at least once here.

Marc Pubill really struggled in Atletico Madrid’s opening game of the Champions League campaign, committing three fouls and collecting a yellow card as Atletico Madrid fell to defeat at Anfield - with Pubill accounting for a third of the total fouls that Atletico committed.

Pubill is expected to continue at right centre back here, pitting him directly against Matheus Cunha who will be a real handful for the Spaniard to contain given his already aggressive baseline. Pubill has committed six fouls across his five starts in LaLiga this season (1.34 per 90).

Cunha was back on the left hand side for United’s 1-1 draw against Tottenham last time out, and looked much more comfortable in that role as he registered an assist and was fouled three times.

Cunha is a really good player when it comes to winning fouls due to how he moves with the ball. He’s very fluid and has a consistent record over the last few seasons, averaging 1.94 fouls won per 90 across 29 starts in the Premier League last campaign.

Cunha was fouled twice in United’s 4-0 win over Sabah in their opening Champions League game and will be up against Marcos Llorente and Marc Pubill in this one. I’m more interested in his battle with Pubill rather than Llorente, but Cunha can force either to haul him down on a few occasions here.

You really have to feel for Senne Lammens as his good work in goal for United over the last year or so has largely gone unnoticed due to how poor their overall defensive record has been.

Lammens has been doing his bit, he’s already made 18 saves across six starts in the Premier League this season (3.0 per 90), yet has not been rewarded with a clean sheet across these games for his efforts.

Lammens was forced into making 79 saves across his 32 starts in the Premier League last season (2.47 per 90) with a save percentage of 66.9%. Atletico Madrid forced Alisson into three saves in their opening game of the Champions League, and should be able to do the same against a United backline that is really struggling.