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This is a really nice price, I’d consider taking it as a single given Yamal’s record at the tournament so far and how influential he is to this Spanish side. 

Yamal was desperate to score against Austria last time out, taking six shots with four of them finding the target - a shot accuracy of 67%. 

He definitely should have scored with at least one of these efforts, but the volume of shots is a good sign when backing him for 2+ shots on target here.

Yamal had more touches in the opposition box than any other player during that comfortable win over Austria (14). 

He’s taken 14 shots overall at the World Cup (5.60 per 90) which may seem inflated, but Yamal has been shooting more often over the last year, averaging 4.64 shots per 90 for Barcelona in LaLiga during the most recent campaign.

Cristiano Ronaldo scored his first ever World Cup knockout goal from the penalty spot against Croatia last time out and will be eager to strike again here as he eyes up the one trophy that has eluded him in his career to date.

Ronaldo has always had a pretty high shot volume, even more so since moving to a central striker role. 

He’s taken 15 shots across his four starts (3.85 per 90), seeing seven of these attempts find the target (1.79 per 90).

This record has resulted in three goals for Ronaldo at the World Cup, which is remarkably one of his best scoring records in the competition. 

He scored five goals across five starts for Portugal during qualifying, averaging 7.44 shots per 90 and 2.88 shots on target per 90.

I was pretty disappointed with Austria last time out, I thought they would have challenged Spain a lot more than they did. 

Ralf Rangnick’s side looked leggy and a bit unorganised with their press, which isn’t like them - but maybe the conditions played a part in their performance.

That underwhelming performance for Austria means that this is Spain’s first real test at the World Cup and, as good as they’ve looked at the back, I think Portugal can cause them problems in transition. 

Uruguay and Austria both failed to really make the most of those situations, but Portugal have more quality in forward areas to punish Spain.

Portugal have a recent edge over Luis de la Fuente’s side too, they beat them on penalties to win the Nations League last year after a 2-2 draw. 

Meetings between these nations tend to be entertaining, they contested a 3-3 draw during the 2018 World Cup which was particularly notable for a hat trick from Cristiano Ronaldo.

Marc Cucurella relishes a 1v1 duel and he’ll have a familiar opponent here in Pedro Neto who I can see exploiting the space that Cucurella leaves in behind at times when he pushes up into the advanced left half space.

Cucurella is exceptional at this role, his positioning is better than the majority of fullbacks who attempt to play in this way and he can give credit to Enzo Maresca who matured him in this role during his time at Chelsea.

This assignment does however leave Cucurella a bit exposed at times when Spain lose possession, often resulting in the Real Madrid man having to make niggling or tactical fouls to stop sides breaking away quickly. 

He’s committed five fouls across his four starts at the World Cup so far (1.25 per 90) and his direct opponent in Pedro Neto is averaging 1.00 fouls won per 90 at the World Cup and will be aware of Cucurella’s clever movement more than most having played with him at Chelsea.

I think Bruno Fernandes is going to be crucial to any chance Portugal have of coming through this tie.

Spain’s more challenging opponents so far have had some promising situations develop in transition but have failed to pick the right pass to unlock this Spain backline - who do play very high and leave space in behind.

Portugal have the runners required to get beyond this high line, including the likes of Neto, Leao and Mendes who will all make those positive runs and Bruno Fernandes can pick them out.

Fernandes has registered one assist at the World Cup so far, with that coming against Uzbekistan where he did exactly what we need him to do here in picking the right pass on a counter attack.

Fernandes is averaging 2.16 shots per 90 and 1.08 chances created per 90 at the World Cup, which are decent underlying numbers and his role on set pieces as well as ability to pick the right pass at the right time make him a player to watch in this exciting looking clash.

Continuing the theme of Portugal being a threat in transition, the wide areas will be crucial for Spain to manage and I can see both Porro and Cucurella struggling at times with their direct opponents.

Like Cucurella, Porro pushes very high up the pitch and leaves a lot of space in behind. That space will be filled by Rafael Leao in this encounter who is a very dangerous player and can force Porro into committing a few tactical fouls.

Leao was a constant threat against Croatia last time out, setting up the winning goal with a brilliant cross to Ramos. Looking at his heat map, he pretty much hugged the touchline which makes him a real direct threat to Porro.

Leao won 34 fouls across his 23 starts for Milan during the most recent campaign (1.65 per 90) and will be well aware of how often Porro pushes on into forward areas.

Rafael Leao has always been a bit of a nearly player.

He’s always discussed in passing when people talk about the most talented wingers in Europe, but there is also a consensus that he should be producing a bit more consistently for the talent he has.

He’s already registered two goal contributions at the World Cup, including setting up Portugal’s winner against Croatia in the closing stages last time out. 

I see him being a really useful outlet for Portugal here, he should have plenty of space with Yamal and Porro down his side who both stay quite high. 

Leao has taken four shots across his 136 minutes of action at the World Cup (2.65 per 90) and maintained a similar average during the most recent Serie A campaign (3.05 per 90).

Cristiano Ronaldo scored his first ever World Cup knockout goal from the penalty spot against Croatia last time out and will be eager to strike again here as he eyes up the one trophy that has eluded him in his career to date.

Ronaldo has always had a pretty high shot volume, even more so since moving to a central striker role. 

He’s taken 15 shots across his four starts (3.85 per 90), seeing seven of these attempts find the target (1.79 per 90).

This record has resulted in three goals for Ronaldo at the World Cup, which is remarkably one of his best scoring records in the competition. 

He scored five goals across five starts for Portugal during qualifying, averaging 7.44 shots per 90 and 2.88 shots on target per 90.

This is a really nice boost, Ronaldo and Oyarzabal both lead the line for their country and have scored at least three goals each at the World Cup.

Ronaldo has found the target seven times across his four matches (1.79 per 90) while Oyarzabal has managed five shots on target across his four starts (1.50 per 90).

The last time these sides met at a World Cup, the clash produced six goals with the game ending 3-3. They also drew 2-2 in the Nations League final last year before Portugal progressed on penalties, so we can expect an entertaining tussle here with chances at both ends.

These two met last year in the Nations League final, and it was Portugal who prevailed on penalties.

It was an incredibly entertaining contest which finished 2-2 in regular time, before Ruben Neves fired in the winning penalty after Alvaro Morata missed. Once again, both sides look incredibly strong going forward, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see an identical scoreline.

Mikel Oyarzabal was a standout performer in that match, as he scored the third goal of the game. The 29-year-old comes into this World Cup knockout tie in excellent form, having just scored a brace against Austria in the previous round.

He also scored twice against Saudi Arabia in the group stages, making him the top scorer for Spain at the moment. After scoring 18 goals in 40 appearances across all competitions for Real Sociedad, Oyarzabal has carried that impressive form into his national side.

What a price this is, the same bet is as low as 1.47 with other leading bookmakers so we're getting a great price @ 2.25.

Yamal took the joint most shots of any player against Austria last time out, seeing four of these shots find the target.

He had four shots when these sides met in the Nations League final last year, seeing two of these attempts find the target.

That final produced four goals and the last World Cup meeting between these nations produced six goals as they drew 3-3 in 2018.

Both sides saw 3+ goals in their Round of 32 ties and will be prepared for a high scoring game here.

Sea Idol has finished in the top three in 100% of his one career starts, which occurred over today's ground conditions and distance.

Victory Gold is a strong favourite in this Novice Stakes under Oisin Murphy, and whilst the market may prove to be informative here, Sea Idol looks a big price at 14/1 under Luke Morris, especially with three places on offer and looks the more appealing option than an 8/11 favourite.

Sea Idol was so painfully close to breaking his maiden on the first call of asking, going down by a head at 28/1 at Southwell in May. What is perhaps most encouraging about that run was that he was giving away weight to all the runners that day, whereas today, under the guidance of stable jockey Luke Morris for the first time, he travels off level weights with the field.

Sea Idol will look to be build on the promise shown on debut under more favourable conditions at Lingfield today and looks a strong each way bet at 14/1.

Nogo's Dream has finished in the top three in 55% of his 29 career starts, and in 53% of his 28 starts over today's distance.

Oisin Murphy takes the ride for Richard Hughes again, and we are backing Richard Hughes again after Bint Archange landed for us at 10/1 in Friday's E/W Lucky 15. Nogo's dream has not been the easiest customer for Richard Hughes; the 6-year-old had won just twice in his career, both of those wins came on the all-weather surface. In fact, he boasts quite a strong record on the all-weather, winning or placing in 10 of his 16 starts.

Favourably for Nogo's Dream, he is back under his last winning mark of 79 after being dropped 1lb for his 6th place effort on turf at Windsor. In our view, the handicapper has treated him quite kindly for that, as the form book doesn't tell the whole story for that effort, losing only by 2 lengths after a quick turnaround in a strong handicap.

He's back down to 77 on his preferred surface and paired by the champion jockey, who has a 24.51% strike rate around Lingfield, putting him in good shape for a strong effort here.

Solar Edge has finished in the top three in 50% of his 18 career starts, and 56% of his 16 starts over today's distance.

Solar Edge is one of the more unlucky horses I've seen, going down by a neck on four occasions since May last year but I believe there is more to come from this horse, who has been kindly treated by the handicapper and dropped by 1lb despite finishing 2nd by a neck at Windsor in June.

His poor head carriage cost him that day; his head hung badly left inside the final 50 yards, which allowed Jack Mitchell the opportunity to just catch Solar Edge on the line.

Solar Edge looks to make things right today under Gina Mangan, and should they be able to manage his head carriage, he could be well in with the handicapper and make a bold effort at a big price.

Mythological Star has finished in the top three in 50% of his two career starts.

Mythological Star has looked progressive for D&C Kuber in two novice efforts for the stable, coming on well after a debut 8th at Kempton to finish 3rd at 25/1 at this track last month. He was given a rather educational ride that day, being held up in the rear and staying on well for Callum Hutchinson.

He steps up in trip today after two starts at 7f, and his breeding suggests he will relish this 1m trip, as he is by Magna Grecia, who won the 2000 Guineas over 1m in 2019. Natural improvement over a step-up in trip may well spell the result that the Kubler stable is after with this promising gelding.

Rafael Leão started his first World Cup game in the round of 32 against Croatia last time out, and that decision paid dividends.

He sent in the cross that Goncalo Ramos converted in the final few minutes to win the game. Leão did not commit a foul in that match, but he is averaging 1.29 fouls per 90 since Euro 2024. That is a notable increase in his foul numbers for AC Milan, which suggests he is being asked to track back much more for his national side.

Leão featured against Spain in the Nations League final last year and committed two fouls despite playing only 45 minutes. He will be tasked with containing Pedro Porro, who was fouled twice against Austria last time out, and Lamine Yamal, who will operate on the same flank as him.

Timothy Castagne averaged just 0.83 fouls per 90 for Fulham this season, which is nothing to write home about, but he has shown a tendency to rack up fouls when playing against more direct and technical wingers.

He accounted for four of Belgium's 22 fouls against Senegal last time out, and he was fortunate to escape a booking in the end.

Christian Pulisic looks set to be directly up against Castagne for this clash, so it could be a tough game for the full back. Pulisic was fouled four times against Bosnia in the round of 32, and he looked back to his best after being hampered by injuries recently.

The AC Milan winger is averaging 4.34 fouls drawn per 90 at this World Cup, and with Folarin Balogun suspended, Pulisic should see plenty of the ball here, bringing Castagne into the game.

Belgium have been creating chances at the World Cup without really convincing in their performances overall.

They’re averaging 6.30 shots on target per game and have drawn at least two saves from the opposing keeper in all four of their matches.

Matt Fresse hasn’t really been tested so far, but he’s going to have to have a solid game here for the USA to have a good chance.

He’s got that sort of performance in him, having averaged 3.33 saves per game across 15 starts for New York City in the most recent campaign.

The USA have been one of the surprises of the tournament so far for me. The mood around them before the World Cup wasn’t that positive, but Pochettino has done what he is known for and brought the group together.

He’s also implemented his style of play onto the side, which means that the USA play with plenty of energy, but are liable to end-to-end games, as Pochettino’s philosophy has never prioritised keeping the ball.

All four of their games have seen at least two goals, with two of them producing five goals.

The two games they came with just one goal under this line were against sides that set up to sit deep, which won’t be Belgium’s approach here.

These sides actually faced off earlier this year in a friendly that produced seven goals, with Belgium coming away 5-2 winners. That match produced 33 goals, with each team having three big chances.

Belgium have only kept one clean sheet from their four matches at the World Cup, with their last two games seeing at least three goals.

The USA are averaging 5.75 corners per game at the World Cup and have won 4+ corners in three of their four matches.

I’ve not been convinced by Belgium so far. I don’t think they’ll have the composure to control this game against an energetic USA side, which will lead to Pochettino’s team creating chances and winning corners.

Belgium are conceding 4.00 corners per game and look pretty weak in the fullback areas.

I think they will struggle in those duels, and the USA can benefit with corners being an effective avenue so far - three of their 10 goals at the World Cup have come from set pieces.

Tielemans was the standout performer for Belgium last time out as they came from behind to win 3-2 against Senegal after extra time.

Tielemans scored the equaliser to take the game to extra time, and also converted the penalty in the 120th minute to set up this tie.

Tielemans was fouled twice during the game, including winning the penalty that he later converted.

He’s won nine fouls in total at the World Cup (2.10 per 90) and consistently won fouls for Aston Villa in the Premier League last season (1.98 per 90).

Tielemans will be up against an intense USA side who will press under Pochettino’s instructions, with McKennie, Adams, and Tillman combining to commit 3.2 fouls per 90 at the World Cup.

Belgium are an inconsistent side but they have not lost so far, and have actually avoided defeat across their last 17 matches.

Belgium played the USA in a friendly earlier this year and came away 5-2 winners.

They did face a rotated side, but the likes of McKennie, Balogun, and Tillman all featured, and the USA tend to play in quite an expansive way, which is something that will suit a side with the individual quality that Belgium have.

Belgium going 2-0 down to Senegal is an example of where Belgium are still quite far away from being a challenger for the trophy, but their comeback shows that they do have experience of navigating knockout football under this pressure, which is not an advantage that the USA have.

ROGUE DEFENCE (8.7) is a young three-year-old gelding who has just kick-started his career with a promising win over course and distance on his racecourse debut, and considering he had excuses in his latest run, he holds bold claims on his return to Lingfield today.

Staying on well to win over course and distance in April, Rogue Defence won with plenty in hand, and considering he put in a solid effort at Leicester when fifth of 12, another big performance looks likely from him today. Having raced over a further 1m2f last time out, the three-year-old was drawn worst of all in stall 13, and given he raced widest of all in the early stages of the race, he was always going to have to produce something special to compete in the latter stages.

Finishing a very respectable fifth, Rogue Defence is stepping back to what looks to be his preferred 1m trip today and with course experience under his belt, he’s the one to beat.

VIETNORM (6.9) is the one to beat in today’s contest, sporting exceptional form with three wins on the bounce; it’s tough to look anywhere else given his current mood, and further progress is expected on his return to the flat.

Running on powerfully in the latter stages at Ripon in May to land his first win, Vietnorm wasted no time in securing his second win at Beverley, and considering he stayed on well again in the latter, it’s clear he would travel well over a further trip. Making his debut over hurdles last month, the three-year-old stepped up to 2m for the first time in his career and didn’t disappoint.

Scoring by an impressive 8 ½ lengths at Market Rasen, he had plenty more to give if required, which is very promising, and his return to the flat seeking the four-timer is highly anticipated, especially being unexposed over this 1m4f trip.