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Six goals were scored when these sides met in Copenhagen last month, with Portugal eventually running out 4-2 winners. Denmark equalised twice through Mikkel Damsgaard and Rasmus Hojlund, before goals from Vitinha and Joao Felix settled the contest. There were a total of 31 shots in that match, of which 13 hit the target.

Portugal were particularly dangerous, accounting for ten of those efforts on target, but it was far from a one-sided contest. Denmark finished the match with 12 shots, and they actually recorded more possession than Portugal. Over 2.5 goals has landed in each of the last three matches for Portugal, including twice against Norway.

Portugal won seven corners against Denmark in the reverse fixture, clearing this line despite having just 46% possession. They should be able to exert more control on this game, given that the Selecao will benefit from home advantage. Still, Portugal have been effective at getting to the byline, and they often prefer to utilise width with attack-minded fullbacks.

They are averaging 6.3 corners per game in the Nations League so far, hitting this mark in three of their four matches. That includes six corners against Norway at home last time out. Meanwhile, Denmark are conceding an average of 4.5 corners per game at the Nations League this season, but this upcoming clash promises to be their toughest matchup of the group.

Hojlund is another player who has been in notable goalscoring form, both domestically and for his national side. The 23-year-old recently found the back of the net against Monza, as his side came away with a comfortable 4-1 win. Hojlund is averaging 2.48 shots per 90 across all competitions for Napoli, with 38% of those efforts hitting the target.

He scored Denmark’s second goal against Portugal in Copenhagen, finishing after being slipped through by Mikkel Damsgaard. Hojlund had five shots against Wales in his last appearance for Denmark - three of those attempts hit the target, and one found the back of the net which proved decisive.

Gustav Isaksen also recorded five shots in that game, and he is averaging 4.15 shots per 90 for Denmark at the Nations League so far, but the winger looks set for a larger defensive responsibility against Portugal this weekend. Isaksen has started twice for the Danes this season, and he has recorded exactly two infringements in both matches.

He now looks set to feature on the same flank as Nuno Mendes, who likes to maraude forward and have the ball at his feet. The PSG fullback has been fouled six times in his four starts for Portugal this season, averaging 1.55 fouls drawn per 90 which is one of the highest figures in the squad.

I think the Republic of Ireland are worth backing to score at least once against Austria on Saturday night.

Heimir Hallgrimsson’s side have looked a greater threat going forward lately, scoring six goals across their last three Nations League games, including three away to Israel and two against Austria in last month’s reverse fixture.

Their strong finish to World Cup qualifying also offers encouragement, with Ireland winning all three of their final matches in the regular phase despite ultimately failing to qualify.

Those wins included a 2-0 success over Portugal at home and a thrilling 3-2 victory away to Hungary.

Ireland then took the Czech Republic to penalties after a 2-2 draw away from home in a World Cup play-off tie in March.

That suggests the visitors are more than capable of making their mark against an Austria side that have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their four Nations League matches, conceding in home wins over Israel and Kosovo.

I’m expecting Austria to be on the front foot for much of this game, so a minimum of five corners looks well within range for the hosts.

Ralf Rangnick’s side are not renowned for racking up high corner totals, but they have taken 5 or more in three of their opening four Nations League matches, including the 2-2 draw away to Ireland on matchday three.

Ireland’s World Cup qualifying campaign offers further encouragement.

They conceded 9 corners away to Portugal and 8 away to Hungary before giving up 6 against the Czech Republic in their play-off tie.

Canada racked up 12 corners against Ireland in a friendly back in June, which adds to the appeal of backing Austria to clear the over 4.5 hurdle.

Troy Parrott looks well placed to attempt at least two shots against Austria on Saturday night.

The Ireland forward is increasingly cutting a talismanic figure for his country, having scored 4 goals across his last three outings, including a brace against Austria in the reverse fixture.

He scored with 2 of his 3 attempts against the Austrians, while he also had 4 efforts against Israel last time out, one of which found the net.

Parrott finished World Cup qualifying strongly too, scoring 6 times across his final three outings and delivering 3 or more shots in each of those contests.

He has been in and out of the Real Betis side in La Liga this season, but still got multiple efforts away against Elche last weekend.

Parrott has also attempted at least 2 shots in Champions League appearances against both Feyenoord and Lille this term.

Austria have looked shaky at the back throughout their Nations League campaign, so I fancy Parrott to get at least two shots away again on Saturday night.

I’m also keen to back Troy Parrott to be fouled at least once at the Raiffeisen Arena on Saturday night.

The Ireland forward works tirelessly up front, looking to stretch defences with runs in behind, working the channels and holding the ball up with his back to goal.

That makes him a handful for defenders, who regularly end up fouling him.

Indeed, Parrott has been fouled 5 times in four Nations League appearances for Ireland, including once against Austria in Dublin last month.

He also won a free kick away to the Czech Republic in March’s play-off tie.

His recent domestic figures for Real Betis add weight to the case, with Parrott having been fouled five times across his last two La Liga appearances.

He is likely to get drawn into plenty of physical duels with Kevin Danso, who has committed 5 fouls across his three Nations League appearances for Austria and gave away multiple free kicks in their home game against Israel.

Italy are finally starting to look like a serious footballing nation under Roberto Mancini, losing just one of their five matches in the Nations League and earning a 3-1 win over France last time out.

Mancini’s philosophy is something that the Italian national team has needed for some time. He’s sought to completely rebuild the image of the national team, and crucially has started trusting younger players - who were previously denied development pathways to the national team.

Despite their improvement, Italy have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their five matches - seeing BTTS in four of these games. Mancini has had to sacrifice some of the defensive rigidity many have come to associate with Italy for this improvement.

Belgium have only kept two clean sheets across their five Nations League matches, seeing BTTS in each of their last two matches against France and Türkiye. Their 2-0 win over Italy earlier in the campaign came despite Mancini’s side producing an xG of 1.70 from 21 shots - while Belgium generated an xG of 2.76 themselves from 19 efforts.

Türkiye are such a strange national team.

The idea of them seems to be so far removed from the actual performances you see on the pitch, which is why they’re almost always touted as ‘dark horses’ in major tournaments.

There’s clearly talent in the squad, most notably Arda Guler, but there is an obvious lack of tactical direction and an inability to be clinical - which is why they’ve lost all five of their matches in the Nations League.

They’ve only scored three goals across these games too, which is the main concern against a France side who have scored in all five of their Nations League matches and even put four past Belgium at home.

It’s not a full strength France side, but it doesn’t need to be to beat this Türkiye side. They are guaranteed to finish bottom, while France’s defeat to Italy last time out adds importance to this game as the race for the top two spots is still wide open.

Croatia put in a very strong display at Wembley during the week, narrowly losing 2-1 but putting in a better account of themselves than the 7-0 loss they suffered to England in the previous international break.

The likes of Kovacic, Vuskovic, Livakovic and Baturina give Croatia a solid spine of talented players which is more than good enough to see off opponents at the level of Czechia - but probably stops short of challenging the very elite sides in Europe.

Croatia’s run of form looks bad on paper, but I wouldn’t read too much into that. They played Spain and England twice across their last four matches, who are two of the very best sides in the world right now. Czechia will be a much more manageable opponent, as Croatia have already shown.

They beat Czechia 2-1 in the reverse fixture as the away side, generating an xG of 1.84 from 16 shots and limiting their opponents to just two shots on target.

They also took on Czechia as part of their World Cup qualifying campaign, winning 5-1 as the home side with an xG of 3.63.

Czechia have lost all five of their matches in this Nations League group, scoring just twice. They’ve conceded 12 goals in the process as well and are unlikely to have the quality to challenge this Croatia side - who are far more capable than their recent run of form suggests.

It’s hard to see how this is a low scoring game with the attacking talent on show, and lack of defensive structure from England in particular.

Centre back has long been a problem area for England, and this was highlighted against Croatia during the week with the duo of Burn and Quansah looking quite shaky throughout the game.

England will be more routinely punished for those mistakes by this Spain side, who have scored 2+ goals in all five of their Nations League matches and came away 3-2 winners at Wembley when the sides last met.

This has become a bit of a grudge match over recent years too, with each of the last five head to head clashes between the nations seeing 3+ goals - including the final of the 2024 European Championship, which Spain won 2-1.

England have seen 3+ goals in four of their five Nations League matches this term, with the exception of a 2-0 win over Czechia where England coasted to a victory after Czechia went down to 10 men early on.

Medic has won his last four fights by first-round knockout, and those four wins lasted a combined 3 minutes and 50 seconds. All 14 of his professional wins have been finishes, and he has never gone the distance in his career, win or lose.

He’s a creative, high-volume striker. He lands more than five significant strikes per minute at close to 60% accuracy, and his game includes spinning attacks, a sharp left hand and excellent kicks and knees. The concern is his defence. He can get wild and overextend, and he’s been dropped three times in the UFC.

Holland comes off a bounce-back decision win over Randy Brown, which ended a two-fight losing streak. He’s powerful and holds a 10-inch reach advantage (81" to 71"), but his UFC record is patchy: 16-12 (and one no contest) across 29 fights. His striking has become sloppy and isn’t as crisp as it once was. He’s still dangerous with his submissions, and 23 of his 29 pro wins have come inside the distance. If Medic lands clean early, I expect another quick night’s work.

Borralho is 8-1 in the UFC, 18-2 as a pro and fifth in the middleweight rankings. He faces the unranked Belgaroui, who is 3-0 in the UFC with every win coming by TKO.

It’s a strange booking for Borralho. Instead of fighting a ranked opponent to move towards a title shot, he’s taking on an unranked prospect, which gets him no closer to the belt.

Borralho is an elite grappler, but lately he has abandoned that side of his game, spending most of his time striking and landing just one takedown in his last five fights. On the feet he’s measured rather than destructive. He lands around 3.3 significant strikes per minute, and six of his eight UFC wins have gone to the judges.

Belgaroui is a world-class kickboxer with a long frame. He stands 6'6" with a 79-inch reach, four inches longer than Borralho’s. He even holds a kickboxing win over Alex Pereira, the former UFC middleweight and light heavyweight champion. His striking is clean and busy: 6.4 significant strikes per minute at 63% accuracy, almost double Borralho’s output. He has a stinging jab and nasty knees from close range and from distance. He’s also resilient, having shown he can be taken down, get back to his feet and still finish fights in the later rounds.

I’m taking the underdog. Belgaroui will keep this at range and land vicious shots every time Borralho tries to close the distance.

Nunes is coming out of retirement after three years. Harrison returns from a lengthy layoff with a neck injury, the same injury that pulled this fight from UFC 324 in January.

This fight is for GOAT status in women’s MMA, and I don’t believe Nunes is coming back just for a payday.

Harrison is a two-time Olympic judo gold medallist. She’s at her most effective with throws, sweeps and a wide array of takedowns, and once the fight hits the ground she smothers her opponents. She will get Nunes to the mat, but I don’t believe she’ll keep her there long enough.

Harrison’s cardio is also a question. She’s going through an extreme weight cut and has said on record that it’s taking “years off her life”.

Nunes has the hardest punch in women’s MMA history. She’s an elite, durable striker with a three-inch reach advantage, and Harrison simply can’t match her on the feet. Everything Harrison does in this fight is a means to an end, and that end is getting it to the ground. Nunes is the more well-rounded fighter and has more ways to win.

Gane is coming off a huge second-round KO of Alex Pereira. He’s an incredible athlete and a dynamic striker: patient, very accurate (62% of his significant strikes land) and excellent at finding openings.

He’s also the bigger man, at 6'4" with an 81-inch reach against Hokit’s 6'1" and 73 inches. He’s far more experienced too, with wins over top UFC names. His only losses came against Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou.

Hokit is 4-0 in the UFC (10-0 overall) and made his debut just over a year ago. His antics outside the cage have thrust him into the spotlight, but make no mistake, he’s a very good athlete and a well-rounded fighter. He pushes the pace, chains takedowns and throws huge volume, landing 9.29 significant strikes per minute. That output comes at a cost, though. He absorbs more than five significant strikes a minute, and he headhunts rather than mixing his levels: 91% of his significant strikes go to the head, compared with 45% for Gane.

Gane is elusive, absorbing only around 2.3 strikes per minute, and has far more high-level experience. Hokit needs a perfect performance to win. From what we’ve seen, Hokit won’t settle for a close decision. At some point he’ll open up and go for broke, and that’s when Gane will find the openings to finish it by KO/TKO.

Isaac Price is pure action.

He’s very slight and agile, and plays with huge drive for club and country, stepping up as Northern Ireland’s most dangerous player in front of goal.

Price has had 2.45 shots per 90 and 1.09 shots on target per 90 in this Nations League campaign, covering this bet in all four outings, including scoring after 22 minutes in NI’s 3-0 win in Slovakia (where Ukraine play their non-away games).

Price started in a left-sided attacking role in all of those matches, in Ukraine’s other three Nations League games they’ve conceded four total shots on target from opposition players in similar positions, and at least one in each game.

I can see Northern Ireland allowing Ukraine territory and possession in this match, which points towards Ukraine shots as an angle of attack.

NI may also, even subconsciously, be looking to defend their strong position in the group that could lead to promotion to League A.

They’re top on eight points, and go to Hungary in the last game (who trail them by one point), while Ukraine are four points back in 3rd.

There’s more than promotion on the line, topping the group would significantly enhance NI’s chances of qualifying for Euro 2028 - which’d be their first major tournament in 12 years.

NI have only scored four in four but are yet to concede.

They’ve had 38%, 36%, 28% and 38% possession in their four outings and actually lost the shot count despite winning 3-0 away to Ukraine.

Sudakov, then, is the most talented attacking player in the Ukraine side.

He’s had 2.45 shots per 90 for Benfica in the Portuguese top-flight this season, and he had four shots in the reverse fixture against Northern Ireland before coming off injured.

Two of those shots came from outside the box, which suggests that he doesn’t even need to get into a great goalscoring position to cash this bet and he’ll be crucial to the way Ukraine attack at Windsor Park.

Operating off the left could also be an advantage, NI will focus their play down their left to get, the aforementioned, Isaac Price into the game, and that could leave space on the other side for Sudakov to exploit.

NI have conceded 5.50 corners per game in this Nations League, seeing this bet win in 3/4.

Ukraine had seven corners in the reverse fixture, despite losing 3-0, and won five corners in their game after that (losing 2-1 to Hungary in Slovakia).

Pierce Charles has been in great form between the sticks for the hosts, making nine saves and keeping four clean sheets despite facing 2.99 xGOT.

Again, this fits the narrative of NI ceding territory, with their highest possession figure of the campaign being 38%, and it worked as a blueprint away to Ukraine - winning 3-0 with 28% possession, it could be a rinse and repeat approach from Michael O’Neill.

The energy man in NI’s midfield, Charles has been a foul-winning machine for his country.

Charles has won 17 fouls in this Nations League, at a whopping 4.25 per 90.

The 23-year-old’s athleticism is a super strength and it allows him to make contact with the ball milliseconds before an opponent, while he’s naturally combative anyway - committing 1.25 fouls per 90 in this campaign as well.

O’Neill has been playing a system with just two central midfielders, typically Charles and Ethan Galbraith, which means Charles has to cover a lot of ground.

His role is also the more physical one in that duo, while Galbraith does get stuck in - he’s more of a gifted ball player than Charles whose energy is crucial to allowing Galbraith the space to operate in.

Rasmus Kristensen has picked up five yellow cards in 13 Danish league games for Midtjylland this season, getting booked in 38% of his appearances.

He’s picked up seven cards in 23 games across all club competitions and was also booked for Denmark against Norway in their opening Nations League match.

When Denmark faced Portugal last time, Kristensen committed two fouls, more than any other Danish player.

Both were on players down his side, Nuno Mendes and João Félix.

Félix could be up against him again and has won 19 fouls in 10 games for Al Nassr, averaging 1.9 per match.

Referee Rade Obrenović has a career average of 4.07 yellow cards per game, and Kristensen will once again have to deal with one of the busiest areas of Portugal’s attack.

Denilson has been committing plenty of fouls for Mirassol this season, averaging 2.5 per 90 minutes and picking up seven yellow cards in 25 Brasileirão games.

He’s been booked four times in his last 10 appearances, including games against Palmeiras, Flamengo and Coritiba, and has committed at least one foul in each of his last five matches.

Renan Lodi and Tomás Cuello are two of Atlético-MG’s most fouled players, both averaging around two fouls won per 90 minutes across all competitions.

When the sides met earlier this season, Denilson committed four fouls and even gave away a penalty for a challenge on Renan Lodi.

Referee Sávio Pereira Sampaio is averaging 4.4 yellow cards per game in 2026, while Mirassol head into this one under pressure to pull away from the relegation zone.

Kane has been in great form for England in the Nations League.

Not only did he score in the first game of this international break against Croatia, but he’s also scored at least once in each of his last five Nations League games.

This leg landed in September’s meeting between the two nations, and he was unlucky not to get a second in that game after hitting the woodwork from the penalty spot.

Across the Nations League, he’s averaging 1.59 goals per 90 from 2.05 shots on target, which puts him in a good position to continue that form here.

Italy are finally starting to look like a serious footballing nation under Roberto Mancini, losing just one of their five matches in the Nations League and earning a 3-1 win over France last time out.

Mancini’s philosophy is something that the Italian national team has needed for some time. He’s sought to completely rebuild the image of the national team, and crucially has started trusting younger players - who were previously denied development pathways to the national team.

Despite their improvement, Italy have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their five matches - seeing BTTS in four of these games. Mancini has had to sacrifice some of the defensive rigidity many have come to associate with Italy for this improvement.

Belgium have only kept two clean sheets across their five Nations League matches, seeing BTTS in each of their last two matches against France and Türkiye. Their 2-0 win over Italy earlier in the campaign came despite Mancini’s side producing an xG of 1.70 from 21 shots - while Belgium generated an xG of 2.76 themselves from 19 efforts.

It’s hard to see how this is a low scoring game with the attacking talent on show, and lack of defensive structure from England in particular.

Centre back has long been a problem area for England, and this was highlighted against Croatia during the week with the duo of Burn and Quansah looking quite shaky throughout the game.

England will be more routinely punished for those mistakes by this Spain side, who have scored 2+ goals in all five of their Nations League matches and came away 3-2 winners at Wembley when the sides last met.

This has become a bit of a grudge match over recent years too, with each of the last five head to head clashes between the nations seeing 3+ goals - including the final of the 2024 European Championship, which Spain won 2-1.

England have seen 3+ goals in four of their five Nations League matches this term, with the exception of a 2-0 win over Czechia where England coasted to a victory after Czechia went down to 10 men early on.

Kane has been in great form for England in the Nations League.

Not only did he score in the first game of this international break against Croatia, but he’s also scored at least once in each of his last five Nations League games.

This leg landed in September’s meeting between the two nations, and he was unlucky not to get a second in that game after hitting the woodwork from the penalty spot.

Across the Nations League, he’s averaging 1.59 goals per 90 from 2.05 shots on target, which puts him in a good position to continue that form here.

Yamal is set to return to the Spain side tonight, with De La Fuente describing him as being in perfect condition.

Like Kane, Yamal also landed this in the last meeting between these sides and has managed five goal involvements in his four Nations League games.

He’s averaging 1.28 goals per 90 for Spain in this campaign, alongside 0.96 big chances created.

Looking at his last five games for Barcelona, he also has six goal involvements, four of which have come from assists.

Bellingham was fouled four times in the last meeting between England and Spain, and is England’s most fouled player across the Nations League, averaging 2.73 per 90.

He also averaged 2.48 fouls won per 90 at the World Cup, as well as 2.92 in La Liga this season, so his numbers make this leg look particularly strong.

Bellingham’s heatmap for England is interesting too.

He’s a player who covers a lot of ground, but seems to operate heavily down the left-hand side, which points towards Fabian Ruiz and Porro as potential opponents.

Fabian Ruiz committed a foul in their last meeting, whilst Porro committed two in Spain’s previous game against Czechia, also picking up a yellow card.

There’s no doubt that Yamal will be heavily involved tonight, which is one of the reasons I like him for fouls won.

He’s the most fouled player in the Barcelona squad this season (20), averaging 1.81 fouls won per 90.

He’s also been fouled 2+ times in five consecutive games across all competitions for Barcelona.

His likely opponent, Lewis Hall, should give him a competitive battle.

Hall committed a foul against Croatia on Thursday and averages 0.70 fouls committed per 90 for Newcastle.

However, he gets dribbled past 1.20 times per 90 in the Premier League, compared with Yamal’s 4.43 successful dribbles per 90 for Barcelona.

With Yamal likely to be the focal point of Spain’s attack, I think Hall could have his hands full.

Croatia have lost four of their five Nations League games, although they’ve only faced Spain and England during that run.

Their only win came against the Czech Republic, beating them 2-1 in a game where Croatia managed 16 shots.

The Czechs have lost all five games, conceding 12 goals and allowing an average of 19 shots per match.

Ivan Perišić, who has one goal and two assists in the competition, is back from suspension, while Czech captain Ladislav Krejčí is out after being sent off against Spain.

Croatia are clear favourites, but there’s a good case for BTTS too.

The hosts are yet to keep a single clean sheet and even conceded against the Czechs, who also managed to score away to Spain.

Despite losing to Italy last time out, France still looked dangerous going forward, with 18 shots and four big chances.

They’ve scored in every Nations League game so far, but have conceded in their last three.

Turkey managed 12 shots and two big chances against them in the first meeting.

Michael Olise has carried his excellent Bayern form into the national team, scoring five goals and providing two assists in the Nations League.

He’ll be up against a Turkey side that have lost all five games and have the 2nd-worst defensive record in League A, with 13 goals conceded.

Despite their poor results, Turkey are averaging 14.8 shots and 5.2 on target per game, while producing around 1.5 xG per match.

They might not be favourites to win, but Arda Güler is worth keeping an eye on, having managed nine shots on target in four games.

He scored against Belgium last time out and is one of Turkey’s biggest threats as they look to extend France’s run without a clean sheet.

Spain beat England 3-2 at Wembley in their first meeting, with 28 shots in total and six big chances for the visitors.

The Spaniards have won all five of their Nations League games, scoring at least twice in every match.

They’ve managed 17 shots on target across their two home games, although they’ve conceded in both.

England have looked dangerous going forward too, averaging 17.2 shots and 5.8 on target per game.

Harry Kane is the competition’s top scorer with seven goals, but England showed some defensive vulnerability against Croatia on Thursday, conceding once and allowing five shots on target.

Spain could also have Lamine Yamal and Mikel Oyarzabal back after both missed Thursday’s win over the Czech Republic.

Michael Olise scored again against Italy and is France’s top scorer in this Nations League, with five goals in five games.

He’s been in great form for Bayern too, scoring six Bundesliga goals and averaging 4.82 shots and 2.29 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Olise has done most of his scoring at home, with five of his six Bundesliga goals coming there, along with three goals in France’s two home games in the Nations League.

Turkey have lost all five of their Nations League games, conceding 13 goals and allowing an average of 14 shots, including 6.8 on target, per match.

They’ve conceded at least twice in each of their last four games, including three goals against Italy and another three against Belgium in their two away matches.

Olise set up the winner when France beat Turkey 1-0 last time they met, and now faces a defence that hasn’t kept a single clean sheet in the competition.

Spain and England were involved in a five-goal thriller at Wembley in the reverse fixture back in September, and chances were aplenty at both ends.

Now, the context of this game is slightly different.

Spain and England find themselves clear at the top of the group, with qualification to the play-offs already secured, so they are likely to play with even more attacking freedom this weekend.

Spain came away with a comfortable 2-0 win against Croatia last time out, which was the first time this selection has failed to land for them at the Nations League this season.

Prior to that, BTTS had landed in all four, and over 3.5 goals in three of those.

Similarly, this bet has also landed in four out of five Nations League games for England this campaign.

Ferran Torres was chosen to lead the line for Spain against Czechia last time out, and he accrued a total of three shots.

The striker has only started one other match in the Nations League, which was against England in round one, and he landed this bet with two shots, one of which hit the target.

Ferran Torres completed a move to PSG over the summer to play under Luis Enrique, but he hasn’t quite had the desired impact.

The 26-year-old has bagged six goals from his 14 appearances across all competitions, but he is averaging 3.52 shots per 90 in that time, with an eye-catching 64% of his attempts hitting the target.

Spain racked up 15 fouls against England in round one of the Nations League, and it was Jude Bellingham responsible for four of those infringements.

The Real Madrid man has drawn more free kicks than any other player in the England squad this season, landing this bet in all four of his starts.

Even at a domestic level, Bellingham is averaging 3.02 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions, and he is currently the most-fouled player in the Spanish top-flight this term.

He has been adept at drawing contact, and he typically sees plenty of the ball in midfield areas.

Fermin Lopez will occupy a similar zone of the field as Bellingham on Sunday night, which naturally makes him a target for fouls.

Additionally, Elliot Anderson looks set to feature in midfield for the Three Lions.

The Man City man is averaging 3.4 fouls drawn per 90 in the Premier League this season, making this an optimal matchup to target Fermin.

The 23-year-old has been in exceptional form this season under Hansi Flick, with eight goals and seven assists under his belt from 15 appearances across all competitions, but his defensive work rate makes him even more valuable.

Fermin Lopez likes to track back and get stuck into duels, and he is averaging 2.05 fouls per 90 for Barcelona this season.

Michael Kayode could be in for a tough evening against Jérémy Doku, who returned to Belgium’s starting XI on Thursday and caused plenty of problems against Turkey.

Doku completed seven dribbles and won six fouls in that game, while Turkish right back Oğuz Aydın committed five fouls, more than anyone else on the pitch.

The Manchester City winger has been fouled 24 times in his last 10 appearances.

Kayode has already struggled against Doku in the Premier League, with the Belgian scoring in Manchester City’s 3-0 win over Brentford in May and drawing a foul from the Italian.

Kayode picked up eight yellow cards in 37 Premier League appearances for Brentford last season and has already been booked twice in 10 league games this campaign.

Lewis Hall will have his hands full against Lamine Yamal, who has won 20 fouls in 12 La Liga games this season.

Of the 31 fouls Yamal has won in his last 20 matches, 20 have come from left backs, exactly the position Hall plays.

Spain won 3-2 when the sides last met, with Nico O’Reilly playing at left back for England and picking up a yellow card in the 67th minute after fouling Yamal.

Referee Clément Turpin averages 3.3 yellow cards per game across his career, but showed six in his Nations League match between Greece and Germany.

Hall isn’t usually one to pick up cards, but he’ll be up against a player who has led La Liga in successful dribbles in each of the last two seasons.

This should be one of the closest matches in the first round of matches in the Tour Finals Group Stage, which should make for an interesting contest.

Ben Shelton heads into this off the back of a narrow defeat to Carlos Alcaraz in the final of the Paris Masters.

Whereas Arthur Fils has been inconsistent in the last few months, which includes losing out to Taylor Fritz in the Paris Masters last week.

The Frenchman has shown his quality earlier this year before an injury lay-off.

There’s been at least one tie-break in all of the three matches between Shelton and Fils, and I can see that trend continuing, as they’re both particularly strong on serve.

There will have been doubts as to whether Alcaraz could pick up where he left off after an injury lay-off earlier this year. 

Those doubts have been quickly swept away though, with the Spaniard being in brilliant form heading into this year’s ATP Tour Finals.

He’s still not quite at his best, but he’s more than capable of comfortably beating Frances Tiafoe, who can count himself somewhat fortunate that other players in the race for this tournament struggled in recent weeks. 

Alcaraz has won 12 matches on indoor courts this year, and is yet to taste defeat on this surface this season.

He heads into this tournament off the back of winning the Paris Masters, where he beat Ben Shelton in straight sets in the final of that tournament. 

He only dropped a single set in the whole of that tournament, and should make a winning start to this year’s ATP Tour Finals campaign. 

Tiafoe has one win and three defeats on indoor courts this season, and has lost his last three matches, which includes a shock defeat to Quentin Halys in his most recent match.

Italy pulled off a shock against France last time out, as they won 3-1 to keep their hopes of finishing top of their group alive.

As it stands, they are above France on goal difference, but just one point above Belgium - a draw here will be enough for the Italians to qualify for the Nations League play-offs.

However, they are unlikely to sit deep and look to play for a goalless stalemate.

Italy’s games have been entertaining to watch so far, and BTTS has landed in four out of five matches overall.

The only miss came against Belgium in round one, but Italy racked up 21 shots with six on target, so were unfortunate in that regard.

Charles De Ketelaere was on the scoresheet for Belgium last time out, as he recorded two shots which both hit the target against Turkey.

He repeated that feat in the round one fixture against Italy as well, with two shots on target.

De Ketelaere is averaging 1.55 shots per 90 for Belgium in the Nations League so far, but impressively five of his six shots have hit the target.

He is typically deployed as the centre forward for his national side, given a much greater responsibility in the final third than he is at club level, which means when chances fall to his feet in the final third, they tend to be high-quality ones.

In addition to his contributions going forward, De Ketelaere is averaging 1.6 fouls drawn per 90 in the Nations League, which is amongst the highest in the Belgium squad.

He likes having the ball at his feet, which means those Italy centre backs will be called into action plenty of times.

Alessandro Bastoni, in particular, is the kind of defender who likes to step out of the backline to contest duels, and he fouled once against France last time out, which was worthy of a booking.

He has committed seven fouls in his four starts for Italy this campaign, underlining his aggression.

Davide Frattesi drew three fouls against Belgium in September, which was more than any other Italy player, and he only featured off the bench for the final 30 minutes.

The midfielder was also fouled three times against France last time out, taking his average to 3.05 fouls drawn per 90 for Italy at the Nations League so far.

Frattesi hasn’t quite been as adept at drawing contact for Lazio, but his average of 1.6 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions is still impressively high.

He is adept at drawing contact, and Frattesi tends to hit the deck easily when he feels contact.

Zverev hasn’t been at his best heading into this tournament, but he should still have more than enough quality to make a winning start as world number one.

The German suffered a shock defeat to Lorenzo Musetti in the Paris Masters, and will be eager to bounce back with a positive result against young Spaniard, Rafael Jodar.

The youngster has been hugely impressive in his breakthrough year on the ATP Tour, and his strongest surface is clay.

He’s shown inconsistency on indoor courts lately, and was beaten by Casper Ruud last time out, whilst also tasting defeat against Valentin Vacherot in Basel last month.

Zverev has the experience in these big events, and his power should be too much for Jodar to handle.

Harry Kane scored against Spain at Wembley to kick off England’s Nations League campaign, although that proved to be in vain as the Three Lions were beaten 3-2.

Kane has a 100% record for finding the back of the net in the Nations League this season, and he maintained that record against Croatia last time out by converting the winning penalty.

Even at a domestic level, Kane has been unstoppable this season.

He has scored 10 goals and supplied 11 assists in 15 appearances across all competitions for Bayern Munich, highlighting just how involved he is in the final third.

In the previous campaign, Kane bagged 61 goals in 51 games.

Fabian Ruiz accounted for just one of Spain’s 15 shots against England in the reverse fixture, and he didn’t land this selection, but the Spaniard does have a tendency to pop up in big games.

He was on the scoresheet for PSG against Barcelona in the Champions League, registering five shots with three on target.

Ruiz likes to get forward and make runs into the box from midfield, and he strikes the ball cleanly.

He is averaging 2.5 shots per 90 across all competitions for PSG this season, and 44% of those efforts have hit the target, which shows how adept he is at finding promising shooting opportunities in the box.

England are looking a bit light at centre back at the moment, with Marc Guehi and Ezri Konsa both missing out against Croatia last time out.

That meant Dan Burn started alongside Jarrell Quansah, and that partnership looks set to continue.

Burn committed two fouls in that game, meaning he has landed this bet in three of his last four starts in an England shirt.

The Newcastle centre back likes to be strong in his challenges, and get physical with opposing strikers.

He will have the tough task of trying to contain the Spanish frontline, and this looks like a difficult matchup for Burn.

France won 1-0 away to Turkey in September, and it wasn’t the most convincing victory, but they will benefit from home advantage here.

Les Bleus look the much stronger team on paper, even if Kylian Mbappe is doubtful to feature, and they will hope to press home their advantage here.

Turkey have really struggled against top sides in recent years.

In fact, they are currently rooted to the bottom of League A Group 1 of the Nations League with zero points from five matches.

They have conceded a total of 13 goals and scored just three.

That includes a 2-1 defeat against Belgium last time out.

Based on that, France should be confident of taking all three points.

France have had to contend without some key attacking players at the Nations League so far - Mbappe has only played once, while Ousmane Dembele was missed against Italy last time out.

In their absence, Michael Olise has really stepped up, and he has been the main attacking outlet for the French going forward.

The Bayern Munich man was on the scoresheet on Thursday night, and he also bagged a brace against Belgium before that, despite only coming off the bench for the final 30 minutes.

Olise is averaging 4.2 shots per 90 in the Nations League so far, with over half of his efforts hitting the target.

Merih Demiral will be without his regular centre back partner this weekend, as Ozan Kabak is suspended, and the Turkey captain could be in for a long night.

Demiral is averaging 1.4 fouls per 90 for his national side this season, and he has landed this selection in all four starts.

The 28-year-old plays his football for Al-Ahli in the Saudi Pro League, and he is averaging 1.07 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season.

Demiral likes to be aggressive in his play, and he will have plenty of duels to contest here against the France attackers.

If Turkey are to cause any problems for France going forward, Arda Guler will have to play a key role.

He scored the only goal for Turkey in their 2-1 loss against Belgium last time out, playing the full 90 in an advanced midfield position.

Guler was also fouled six times in that game, taking his average to 4.75 fouls drawn per 90 in the Nations League so far.

That is a notable increase on his figure of 2.3 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions for Real Madrid this season, but Guler is the main man for his national side going forward.

He is their primary outlet and should have plenty of battles to contest in midfield here.