Vinicius Jr is enjoying another stellar season for Real Madrid and loves playing in the Champions League. He’s scored five goals across his 11 starts in the competition from a monstrous shot total of 46 (4.18 per 90).

This promising shot volume should give Vinicius quite a few chances to find the target. 17 of his efforts in the Champions League have found the target (1.55 per 90). Vinicius has maintained a similar record in LaLiga this term, averaging 1.42 shots on target per 90 leading to 11 goals across his 25 starts.

Real Madrid are averaging 6.90 shots on target per game in the Champions League this season, and should feel motivated to test an ageing Manuel Neuer - who actually currently has one of the weakest save percentages of goalkeepers in Europe (59.6%).

This boost is clearly great value, I'm backing it personally. 

Sporting v Arsenal 

Sporting have won all five of their home games in the Champions League, seeing BTTS in three of these games - including against PSG.

Arsenal have shown recent cracks at the back, keeping just three clean sheets across their last 10 matches.

Arsenal are seeing 5.70 corners per game in the CL this season, while Sporting are seeing 4.80 - a metric that rises to 6.20 corners per game when at home.

Both sides rank in the top five in the Champions League for cards. Arsenal have seen both teams pick up a card in eight of their 10 CL games this season. 

Real Madrid v Bayern Munich 

Both sides have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions.

Real Madrid have only kept four clean sheets across their 12 games in the Champions League this season.

Bayern have won 21 corners across their five away games in the CL this season (4.20 per game). Real Madrid have won 40 across their 6 games at the Bernabeu (6.67 per game).

Real Madrid have picked up a card in 10 of their 12 CL games.

Bayern have picked up a card in eight of their 10 CL games. 

Viktor Gyokeres has improved as the season has unfolded, netting 17 goals in his 43 appearances across all competitions with 10 of these goals coming since the turn of the year. 

He’s playing with plenty of confidence right now having scored in both games for Sweden over the international break which helped them to secure a spot at the World Cup in the summer. He also marked his return to domestic duties with a goal against Southampton as Arsenal exited the FA Cup.

Gyokeres has scored four goals across his seven starts in the Champions League this season, managing 22 shots across these games (3.57 per 90), with 11 of these efforts finding the target (1.78 per 90). He should be motivated to extend this decent record when he lines up against his former club. 

These metrics are an improvement on his domestic stats, which suggests that Gyokeres prefers playing in the Champions League compared to the Premier League - probably because of the extra time and space he gets in Europe given the slightly slower pace of games.

I think Zubimendi has been brilliant for Arsenal over the course of the season. He’s attracted some criticism recently, but I think you could extend that to the entirety of the Arsenal squad with Mikel Arteta’s side exiting two cup competitions across their last two matches.

Zubimendi only played 11 minutes against Southampton, so should be fit enough to start here, he committed a foul in the cup final just before the international break and has committed 27 fouls across his 30 starts in the Premier League this season (0.93 per 90). 

Zubimendi has also committed a crazy 17 fouls across his eight starts in the Champions League this season (2.25 per 90) - a massive increase on his numbers in the Premier League which I found quite interesting as you’d expect his numbers in the more intense competition to be more inflated. 

This is a good sign for our selection though, and possibly even warrants testing higher lines for Zubimendi fouls. His direct opponent here is likely to be Trincao who has won seven fouls across his nine starts in the Champions League this season (0.81 per 90).

Kylian Mbappe cut a bit of a frustrated figure over the weekend as Real Madrid lost ground in the title race with a 2-1 defeat to Mallorca on the road. Mbappe was very lively in that game, and should have really scored, with six shots overall - seeing three of these attempts find the target. 

Mbappe walked away with a personal xG tally of 0.59, accounting for a large chunk of the 1.28 xG that Real Madrid generated in the game overall. He’s been brilliant in the Champions League this season, netting 13 goals across eight starts from a crazy 46 shots (5.66 per 90). 24 of these efforts have found the target (2.95 per 90) - giving Mbappe really healthy underlying metrics for our selection.

Unsurprisingly, Mbappe is the top scorer in the Champions League this season which remains the case if you look at his open play goals (10). He’s also pitched in with three penalties, which can act as a route to goal for Mbappe if he doesn’t quite get the opportunities to find the target at least twice from open play.

This looks like it’s going to be a really fun tie. Real Madrid lost more ground in the LaLiga title race over the weekend as they lost 2-1 to Mallorca while Barcelona registered a 2-1 win over Atletico Madrid. This is important because it leaves the Champions League as the most achievable trophy for Real Madrid, a success which is expected at a club the size of Real Madrid despite the turbulence which has hit the club throughout the season.

Real Madrid have seen BTTS in each of their last four matches across all competitions. This includes victories over the likes of Atletico Madrid and Manchester City, so Real Madrid aren’t struggling massively at the moment but it is clear that their defensive solidity is lacking right now. This has been the case all season with injuries and poor recruitment contributing to a backline which is constantly changing and vulnerable to the attacking talent of Bayern Munich. 

Bayern Munich have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, I’d also say they are a bit of a top heavy side in that their attacking talent far exceeds the quality of their backline. With both sides clearly having incredible attacking quality, it’s hard to see how both sides don’t end up on the scoresheet in the first leg of this quarter final clash.

This is a different kind of boost. The price will climb for every shot on target Gyokeres has, potentially climbing as high as 6.0 - a massive boost from the base price of 1.53.

Viktor Gyokeres has improved as the season has unfolded, netting 17 goals in his 43 appearances across all competitions with 10 of these goals coming since the turn of the year. 

He’s playing with plenty of confidence right now having scored in both games for Sweden over the international break which helped them to secure a spot at the World Cup in the summer. He also marked his return to domestic duties with a goal against Southampton as Arsenal exited the FA Cup.

Gyokeres has scored four goals across his seven starts in the Champions League this season, managing 22 shots across these games (3.57 per 90), with 11 of these efforts finding the target (1.78 per 90). He should be motivated to extend this decent record when he lines up against his former club. 

These metrics are an improvement on his domestic stats, which suggests that Gyokeres prefers playing in the Champions League compared to the Premier League - probably because of the extra time and space he gets in Europe given the slightly slower pace of games.

Viktor Gyokeres has improved as the season has unfolded, netting 17 goals in his 43 appearances across all competitions with 10 of these goals coming since the turn of the year. 

He’s playing with plenty of confidence right now having scored in both games for Sweden over the international break which helped them to secure a spot at the World Cup in the summer. He also marked his return to domestic duties with a goal against Southampton as Arsenal exited the FA Cup.

Gyokeres has scored four goals across his seven starts in the Champions League this season, managing 22 shots across these games (3.57 per 90), with 11 of these efforts finding the target (1.78 per 90). He should be motivated to extend this decent record when he lines up against his former club. 

These metrics are an improvement on his domestic stats, which suggests that Gyokeres prefers playing in the Champions League compared to the Premier League - probably because of the extra time and space he gets in Europe given the slightly slower pace of games.

Viktor Gyokeres has improved as the season has unfolded, netting 17 goals in his 43 appearances across all competitions with 10 of these goals coming since the turn of the year. 

He’s playing with plenty of confidence right now having scored in both games for Sweden over the international break which helped them to secure a spot at the World Cup in the summer. He also marked his return to domestic duties with a goal against Southampton as Arsenal exited the FA Cup.

Gyokeres has scored four goals across his seven starts in the Champions League this season, managing 22 shots across these games (3.57 per 90), with 11 of these efforts finding the target (1.78 per 90). He should be motivated to extend this decent record when he lines up against his former club. 

These metrics are an improvement on his domestic stats, which suggests that Gyokeres prefers playing in the Champions League compared to the Premier League - probably because of the extra time and space he gets in Europe given the slightly slower pace of games.

I think Zubimendi has been brilliant for Arsenal over the course of the season. He’s attracted some criticism recently, but I think you could extend that to the entirety of the Arsenal squad with Mikel Arteta’s side exiting two cup competitions across their last two matches.

Zubimendi only played 11 minutes against Southampton, so should be fit enough to start here, he committed a foul in the cup final just before the international break and has committed 27 fouls across his 30 starts in the Premier League this season (0.93 per 90). 

Zubimendi has also committed a crazy 17 fouls across his eight starts in the Champions League this season (2.25 per 90) - a massive increase on his numbers in the Premier League which I found quite interesting as you’d expect his numbers in the more intense competition to be more inflated. 

This is a good sign for our selection though, and possibly even warrants testing higher lines for Zubimendi fouls. His direct opponent here is likely to be Trincao who has won seven fouls across his nine starts in the Champions League this season (0.81 per 90).

Arsenal are as vulnerable as they have been all season at the moment and I think Sporting are primed to take advantage. These sides have faced off in European competition before under Arteta’s reign with Sporting knocking Arsenal out of the Europa League at this stage of the competition a few seasons prior. 

Sporting have only failed to score in one of their last 43 matches across all competitions. They’ve taken on the likes of PSG and Bayern Munich in this time, so it’s fair to assume that they can be competitive in the home leg of this quarter final tie. Bodo Glimt were the side to keep them out in the first leg of their Round of 16 clash, though Sporting rallied well in the second leg to come away 5-0 winners and set up this clash.

Sporting have scored 34 goals across their 27 matches against English sides in European competition since 2018, and last welcomed Arsenal in the Champions League back in 2024 - getting on the scoresheet as Arsenal came away 5-1 winners. This game is unlikely to be as one sided with Arsenal struggling at the moment having only kept three clean sheets across their last 10 matches which is uncharacteristic for Arteta’s side. 

Only Tottenham (23) and Real Madrid (24) have picked up more yellow cards in the Champions League this season than Sporting (22). They’ve picked up at least one card in nine of their 10 Champions League matches, picking up 2+ cards in six of these matches.

Sporting haven’t reached this stage of the Champions League in some time, so they are likely to be a bit nervous as they aim to stay in the tie, against an Arsenal side that will almost certainly have the upper hand next week at the Emirates. 

Arsenal have drawn a card from their opponents in nine of their 10 Champions League matches this season, drawing multiple cautions in five of these games. The referee for this clash is Daniel Siebert who has handed out 36 yellow cards across his seven appointments in the Champions League this season (5.14 per game).

Yamal has registered nine goal contributions across eight starts in CL this season.

Yamal created 5 chances and had 7 shots when these sides faced off at the weekend.

Yamal is already just three goal contributions away from matching his tally from last season (39-36). 

Lewandowski has won 2+ fouls in each of his last four CL starts.

Lewandowski is averaging 2.43 fouls won per 90 in CL this season.

He will be up against Le Normand (0.95 fouls per 90) and Lenglet (1.62 fouls per 90) - Lenglet committed two fouls and was shown a yellow card when these sides played at the weekend.

Dembele has scored 42 goals across his last 62 matches, stretching back to January 2025.

Dembele scored against Chelsea in PSG’s most recent Champions League home game.

Dembele scored a brace against Toulouse over the weekend.

Dembele registered 14 goal contributions across 13 starts in the Champions League last season. 

Neves has committed seven fouls across eight starts in CL this season (0.95 per 90).

Will be up against Gravenberch, who is very strong when it comes to winning fouls (1.84 fouls won p/90 in CL).

Neves has committed a foul in four of his last five CL appearances.

Viktor Gyokeres has improved as the season has unfolded, netting 17 goals in his 43 appearances across all competitions with 10 of these goals coming since the turn of the year. 

He’s playing with plenty of confidence right now having scored in both games for Sweden over the international break which helped them to secure a spot at the World Cup in the summer. He also marked his return to domestic duties with a goal against Southampton as Arsenal exited the FA Cup.

Gyokeres has scored four goals across his seven starts in the Champions League this season, managing 22 shots across these games (3.57 per 90), with 11 of these efforts finding the target (1.78 per 90). He should be motivated to extend this decent record when he lines up against his former club. 

These metrics are an improvement on his domestic stats, which suggests that Gyokeres prefers playing in the Champions League compared to the Premier League - probably because of the extra time and space he gets in Europe given the slightly slower pace of games.

This looks like it’s going to be a really fun tie. Real Madrid lost more ground in the LaLiga title race over the weekend as they lost 2-1 to Mallorca while Barcelona registered a 2-1 win over Atletico Madrid. This is important because it leaves the Champions League as the most achievable trophy for Real Madrid, a success which is expected at a club the size of Real Madrid despite the turbulence which has hit the club throughout the season.

Real Madrid have seen BTTS in each of their last four matches across all competitions. This includes victories over the likes of Atletico Madrid and Manchester City, so Real Madrid aren’t struggling massively at the moment but it is clear that their defensive solidity is lacking right now. This has been the case all season with injuries and poor recruitment contributing to a backline which is constantly changing and vulnerable to the attacking talent of Bayern Munich. 

Bayern Munich have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, I’d also say they are a bit of a top heavy side in that their attacking talent far exceeds the quality of their backline. With both sides clearly having incredible attacking quality, it’s hard to see how both sides don’t end up on the scoresheet in the first leg of this quarter final clash.

Pedri is so good at controlling the game and is usually a few steps ahead of every player on the pitch. He was fouled five times when these sides clashed over the weekend, accounting for a third of the total fouls that Atletico Madrid committed.

The Barcelona playmaker had 113 touches in that game, which is a bit of an exaggeration on his average (106.6 per 90), but Pedri seeing such large amounts of the ball makes him a solid player to back when it comes to winning fouls. He’s drawn 19 fouls across his seven starts in the Champions League this season (3.05 per 90) - offering the perfect platform for Pedri to win a few more fouls in this clash. 

I backed Gravenberch to win a few fouls in Liverpool’s defeat to Manchester City over the weekend, and he was hauled down twice in just 67 minutes. It’s a strong part of his game, mainly due to how good he is in tight spaces - his profile is highly sought after in the modern game, with Gravenberch finding it easy to turn defence into attack.

Gravenberch has won 16 fouls across his nine starts in the Champions League this season (1.84 per 90). This shows his ability to manoeuvre out of difficult situations, which directly leads to Gravenberch winning fouls. I’m particularly interested in his battle against PSG’s midfield trio. Luis Enrique has imposed a brilliant counter-pressing system for the Parisians, with the midfield and attacking trio working very hard when without the ball.

Gravenberch was fouled once in the meeting between the sides at the Parc Des Princes last season, with PSG coming through that tie after two legs on penalties. PSG committed 14 fouls in their 5-2 win over Chelsea in their most recent Champions League game at the Parc Des Princes, setting the stage for Gravenberch to draw at least one foul from an aggressive PSG side when without the ball.

Viktor Gyokeres has improved as the season has unfolded, netting 17 goals in his 43 appearances across all competitions with 10 of these goals coming since the turn of the year. 

He’s playing with plenty of confidence right now having scored in both games for Sweden over the international break which helped them to secure a spot at the World Cup in the summer. He also marked his return to domestic duties with a goal against Southampton as Arsenal exited the FA Cup.

Gyokeres has scored four goals across his seven starts in the Champions League this season, managing 22 shots across these games (3.57 per 90), with 11 of these efforts finding the target (1.78 per 90). He should be motivated to extend this decent record when he lines up against his former club. 

These metrics are an improvement on his domestic stats, which suggests that Gyokeres prefers playing in the Champions League compared to the Premier League - probably because of the extra time and space he gets in Europe given the slightly slower pace of games.

Vinicius Jr is very difficult to stop when he’s in the mood, and the Champions League is usually his favourite competition.

He’s won 21 fouls across his 11 starts in the Champions League this season (1.91 per 90) and has drawn 2+ fouls in four of his last five Champions League appearances - winning 3+ fouls in three of these games.

I’ve noticed that the Bayern Munich backline are all really shortly priced for fouls in this clash, suggesting that Vinicius Jr should have multiple opponents who can drag him to the ground: 

Laimer: 1.11 to commit 1+ foul
Upamecano: 1.30 to commit 1+ foul 
Tah: 1.16 to commit 1+ foul 
Stanisic: 1.53 to commit 1+ foul

Konrad Laimer is such a versatile player and has filled in for Bayern Munich at right back, left back and midfield during his time at the club. He is expected to line up at left back in this clash, and has committed eight fouls across his seven starts in the Champions League (1.29 per 90).

Laimer is far more aggressive than this foul average suggests, he’s picked up four yellow cards across his seven starts in the Champions League and will be faced up by the likes of Vinicius Jr and Arda Guler here. Vinicius and Guler combine to win 3.46 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this season - offering the perfect challenge for Laimer to be forced into committing at least two fouls. 

Laimer is as short as 1.11 to commit a foul in this clash, and I don’t think a second will be as far away as the odd jump suggests to 2+ fouls for Laimer here. This is easily Bayern Munich’s biggest challenge in the Champions League so far, and I think Laimer will be in the limelight having committed 2+ fouls in each of his last three Champions League appearances. 

Ademola Lookman was an unused substitute against Barcelona at the weekend, but the Nigerian international will hope to return to the starting eleven midweek, as he has been impressive since completing a January move from Atalanta.

Lookman has popped up with some big goals in big games - he scored against Barcelona in the first leg of the Copa Del Rey, helping Atletico progress to the final, before also scoring against Real Madrid just before the international. 

Lookman is averaging 3.07 shots per 90 for his new club and has landed this selection in each of his last four starts. The Nigerian already has scored five goals for Atletico, which shows how he is able to find plenty of success in the final third.

This upcoming matchup at the Nou Camp promises to be a tough one, but Lookman can be a real threat in transition, where Barcelona conceded most of their chances.

Johnny Cardoso was suspended against Barcelona at the weekend due to an accumulation of yellow cards, which highlights his combative approach, but the American international looks set to reclaim his starting spot midweek in place of Obed Vargas.

Impressively, Cardoso has only made 13 La Liga appearances this season, so his high booking rate highlights his aggression in the centre of the park. 

He tends to struggle in the tougher matchups, picking up a booking against Real Madrid just before the international break. Cardoso racked up four fouls against Los Blancos before being substituted after 57 minutes.

He also landed this selection with three infringements against Barcelona in the Copa Del Rey second leg, despite Atletico sitting very deep and registering just seven fouls as a team. Barcelona tend to dominate possession at the Nou Camp, so Cardoso could struggle again here.

Barcelona have been in devastating form in front of their home crowd this season, and this promises to be another daunting matchup for Atletico Madrid on Wednesday night.

Hansi Flick's side dismantled Newcastle 7-2 at the Nou Camp in the round of 16, and their 78 La Liga goals this term underline just how strong the Catalans are in the final third. 

Atletico have shown a few vulnerabilities at the back in recent games - they conceded three times against both Real Madrid and Spurs, respectively, just before the international break. They also conceded three times against Barcelona in the second leg of the Copa Del Rey, but Diego Simeone would still have been happy with that result, as it was enough for his side to book their spot in the final.

Over 2.5 goals has landed in all three head-to-head meetings between these sides this season, including at the weekend when it finished 2-1 at the Metropolitano.

Barcelona racked up nine corners in that match to clear this line on their own, although the red card to Nicolas Gonzalez played a big part in that, as Atletico sat very deep in the second period.

Still, no side has racked up more corners than Barcelona in the Spanish top flight this season, and they are averaging 7.27 corners themselves. Their opponents are averaging 4.2 corners per game, taking their overall total to 11.47 corners per game. 

Diego Simeone usually opts for quite pragmatic tactics against the top sides, especially when playing away, which makes this market stand out. This selection has landed in each of the last ten consecutive head-to-head meetings between these sides, and Barcelona racked up 15 corners on their own in the second leg of the Copa Del Rey.


Atletico Madrid should be a bit more progressive midweek, so will hope to contribute to the tally as well.

PSG have seen BTTS in each of their last five home matches in the Champions League, most recently coming away 5-2 winners over Chelsea. Their backline has been chopping and changing all season due to injury and fatigue, so I think there will be gaps here for Liverpool to exploit.

This angle mainly relies on Liverpool finding the back of the net. PSG have scored 34 goals across their 13 home matches in Ligue 1 this term (2.61 per game), so they shouldn’t really have any issues when it comes to breaching Liverpool’s backline, which just conceded four goals over the weekend in a damning defeat against Manchester City. 

I do think Liverpool will get joy in the final third, their attacking numbers have dropped off a bit since last season - mainly due to the decline of Salah - but they still carry a decent attacking threat, having netted 23 goals across their 16 away matches in the Premier League this term.

Arne Slot has made some very interesting comments about set pieces and corners, specifically this season, though at risk of antagonising an entire fanbase - he’s a bit of a hypocrite. 

Liverpool have racked up the most corners in the Champions League this season (70 - 7.00 per game) with nine of their 24 goals coming from non-penalty set pieces (37.5%). Liverpool do utilise set pieces quite regularly, often leveraging their physicality from these situations more frequently in the Champions League.

PSG have registered 75 corners in the Champions League this season, but the two extra games they have played mean that their average sits a bit lower than Liverpool's (6.25 per game).

Hugo Ekitike lines up against the side that let him go a few seasons ago, this time wearing the red of Liverpool as Arne Slot’s side look to the Champions League for a bit of salvation from their season. 

Ekitike has led the line pretty well for Liverpool when taking into account it is his first season in the Premier League, and he probably did not expect to be playing as much as he is, which is a result of Isak’s injury. He’s netted three goals across his nine starts in the Champions League, managing 35 shots across these games (4.32 per 90).

This shot volume is comparable to the numbers he was posting regularly for Frankfurt, and is a slight increase on his shot output in the Premier League, which is also promisingly high (3.23 shots per 90). Of his 35 shots in the Champions League, 12 have found the target (1.48 per 90). 

I think Ekitike will have extra motivation to prove a point here for Liverpool, given his previous affiliation with PSG, and his shot volume in the Champions League gives him an excellent chance of finding the target at least once.

I backed Gravenberch to win a few fouls in Liverpool’s defeat to Manchester City over the weekend, and he was hauled down twice in just 67 minutes. It’s a strong part of his game, mainly due to how good he is in tight spaces - his profile is highly sought after in the modern game, with Gravenberch finding it easy to turn defence into attack.

Gravenberch has won 16 fouls across his nine starts in the Champions League this season (1.84 per 90). This shows his ability to manoeuvre out of difficult situations, which directly leads to Gravenberch winning fouls. I’m particularly interested in his battle against PSG’s midfield trio. Luis Enrique has imposed a brilliant counter-pressing system for the Parisians, with the midfield and attacking trio working very hard when without the ball.

Gravenberch was fouled once in the meeting between the sides at the Parc Des Princes last season, with PSG coming through that tie after two legs on penalties. PSG committed 14 fouls in their 5-2 win over Chelsea in their most recent Champions League game at the Parc Des Princes, setting the stage for Gravenberch to draw at least one foul from an aggressive PSG side when without the ball.