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Football

Birmingham v Leeds Bet Builder @ 3.73

Leeds’ form has been a mixed bag over the last few games, and they were able to pull off an impressive comeback at Stamford Bridge last time out. Before that, Daniel Farke's side cruised past Nottingham Forest at Elland Road, winning that game 3-1.

Leeds also had no trouble against Championship side Derby in the previous FA Cup round, as they secured a comprehensive 3-1 victory on their travels against the Rams. Leeds racked up 22 shots worth 3.12 xG - if not for Jacob Zetterstrom’s eight saves, the scoreline really could have gotten out of hand.

Birmingham, meanwhile, have kept just one clean sheet in their last nine league matches at home, yet they remain unbeaten across that stretch, which underlines how open their games have been. They have regularly been able to cause problems going forward, and they should once again be front-footed here with the backing of their home support.

Birmingham like to commit bodies forward when they attack, which could make for quite an open contest here. Their games tend to be quite entertaining to watch, and they come into this clash on an eight-game unbeaten run across all competitions, so they should be confident.

Birmingham’s corner numbers at home have been encouraging, reflecting how they play with intent, particularly in big fixtures. They are averaging 6.61 corners per game on average, and conceding 4.11, totaling 10.72 corners per game at St Andrew’s Stadium this campaign.

Leeds are a cut above Birmingham’s usual opponent, though, and they found no issue in carving through Derby in the previous round. Considering Derby and Birmingham sit close together in the Championship standings, this could be a very similar game, and there were ten corners in that third-round FA Cup clash.

Jay Stansfield has been the main focal point for Birmingham this season, and he usually takes on a large responsibility in the final third. He was on the scoresheet against Leicester last weekend, taking his tally to ten goals and five assists for the season so far. For context, that is exactly double Demarai Gray, who has scored the second-most goals for Birmingham across all competitions this season.

Stansfield is averaging 2.72 shots per 90 this season and has accrued more efforts at goal than any other Birmingham player, to further highlight his importance. That figure rises even further to 3.35 shots per 90 when playing on home turf.

There are high expectations for the 23-year-old, who is also the record-signing for Chris Davies' side. His standards seem to rise against the tougher opponent, and he should be extra motivated to perform well against a Premier League side.

Since arriving on loan from Girona in January, Jhon Solis has already established himself as a key player for Birmingham in the middle of the park, and he has played the full 90 in each of Birmingham’s last three matches.

His importance has only increased for this weekend, after Seung-Ho Paik had to be taken off after just 15 minutes against West Brom with an injury. Solis looks set to start alongside Tommy Doyle here.

Solis will take on a large defensive responsibility, and he has landed this selection in all three starts for the English club, averaging 1.1 fouls per 90. In addition to that, he is also averaging 2.48 tackles per 90, highlighting his willingness to fly into challenges.

This matchup against Leeds promises to be a tough one for the Colombian, as they were fouled 16 times by Derby in their last FA Cup game.

Football
Andy Robson

Kilmarnock v Celtic Bet Builder @ 4.00

Celtic have shown a knack for winning ugly of late, and I suspect it could be a similar story on Sunday against Kilmarnock at Rugby Park. Martin O’Neill has overseen an impressive nine wins from 10 Scottish Premiership matches across his two spells as interim manager this season, even if the performances have often been solid rather than spectacular. That includes narrow victories away at the likes of St Mirren, Hibernian and Falkirk, and it could be more of the same in Ayrshire this weekend.

What’s more, Celtic have the added incentive of knowing a win at Rugby Park would see them make inroads on the two teams directly above them in the table, with Rangers and Hearts set to face off at Ibrox later in the afternoon.

While Kilmarnock have shown signs of improvement under Neil McCann, their two defeats have come against Motherwell and Rangers, and I think they are likely to fall short once again when they come up against another of the division’s stronger sides in the shape of Celtic on Sunday.

While I’m expecting Celtic to eke out a victory on Sunday, I think Kilmarnock are more than capable of contributing to the scoring. The hosts have looked much improved over the past month, winning each of their last two home games and racking up seven goals across those victories. It's also worth noting that Killie scored a consolation goal away at Rangers last midweek - made all the more impressive as they were reduced to 10 men early in the game.

Neil McCann will have his players fired up for this clash, and I think they could make their mark against a Celtic side that have conceded in each of their last two home games against Scottish Premiership strugglers Dundee and Livingston. Celtic won the latter of those matches 2-1 in midweek, as they did when last visiting this venue earlier in the season, and I think the same scoreline is a strong possibility on Sunday. The fact that both teams scored during Celtic's most recent Scottish Premiership away game at Hearts adds further weight to siding with a repeat this weekend.

I like to target high corner counts in Celtic matches, and I think over 7.5 should be well within range at Rugby Park on Sunday. Celtic have once again been the corner kings in the Scottish Premiership this season, averaging just under seven flag kicks per game. That healthy total is helped by the fact that the Hoops’ matches generate an average of 10.48 corners per 90. It’s also worth noting that Celtic have cleared the over 8.5 corner hurdle single-handedly on several occasions this season, including in each of their last two league outings against Falkirk and Livingston, where they racked up nine and 10 corners respectively.

Kilmarnock are averaging just under 4.5 corners per game this season, but recent morale-boosting home wins under new boss Neil McCann suggest they can add to the corner total here. Notably, Killie have forced seven and nine corners in their last two home league games, indicating they can chip in against Celtic on Sunday, particularly in front of their own supporters.

Benjamin Nygren’s numbers in front of goal this season make him the standout option in the to Score or Assist market here. The Norwegian midfielder has proven to be a shrewd signing for Celtic, already racking up 15 goals in 40 appearances across all competitions this season. 12 of those strikes have come in the Scottish Premiership, four arriving in his last five outings. What’s more, the 24-year-old has also contributed six assists this season, with four of them coming away from Celtic Park.

Although Kilmarnock have shown signs of life of late, their 4-3 win over St Mirren on Wednesday highlighted that they remain defensively vulnerable. What’s more, McCann’s men shipped five goals away at Rangers last midweek, albeit while playing the majority of the game with 10 men. Nevertheless, Killie still looks shaky at the back, and I think Nygren is the prime candidate to capitalise on that by registering another goal involvement at Rugby Park on Sunday.

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Football
Andy Robson

Rangers v Hearts Bet Builder @ 3.43

Several players appeal in the shots on target market on Sunday, but I’m backing Mikey Moore to hit the target at least once. There has been a marked improvement in Moore’s performances under Danny Rohl, and he is without question one of Rangers’ biggest attacking threats. The Tottenham loanee is a player who is always eager to pull the trigger at any opportunity, underlined by the fact that he is averaging 2.55 shots per game in the Scottish Premiership this season, with his on-target tally sitting at 1.20.

A closer look shows that Moore has hit the target in 11 of his last 12 Scottish Premiership outings and in the one game where he failed to hit the target, he actually found the net, only for the goal to be ruled out by a tight VAR offside call. Across that 12-game sample, it’s also worth noting that Moore hit the target against Hearts away from home, adding further weight to the case for him to repeat the trick at Ibrox on Sunday. 

The fact that Hearts are conceding an average of just under 10 shots per game in the top-flight this term only strengthens the argument for Moore to test goalkeeper Alexander Schwolow at least once.

Admittedly, a case could be made for either side in this huge clash on Sunday, but I think Rangers can at the very least avoid defeat.

Rangers have been a model of consistency at home in the Scottish Premiership in recent months. Since bringing in Danny Rohl, the Light Blues have won 8 of their 9 Scottish Premiership home matches, with the only blemish a 0-0 draw with Falkirk back in November. Even more impressive is that Rangers have lost just 1 of their 18 league matches under Rohl’s guidance, and only twice overall in the Scottish Premiership this season, despite the challenges they have faced.

While Hearts continue to show they are serious contenders in the title race, 2 of their 3 defeats this season have come across 2 of their last 4 away matches, losing at both Hibernian and St Mirren. It would be fair to say that Rangers represent a significant step up in class from those opponents. I also suspect Hearts would be content with a point if offered beforehand, meaning they are unlikely to go all out for the win here, while Rangers’ need for victory is far greater.

Given the magnitude of this match in the Scottish Premiership title race, I would be surprised if we don’t see a minimum of 4 bookings. That aligns closely with each team’s respective card averages in the Scottish Premiership this season, with Rangers’ matches producing an average of 4.00 bookings per game, while Hearts sit slightly higher at 4.35.

What’s more, Rangers come into this clash fresh from a bad-tempered 1-1 draw with Motherwell in midweek, which saw 7 yellow cards and a red handed out. It has been a similar story for Hearts in recent weeks, with a whopping 5 of their last 6 league matches featuring at least one red card.

While referee Don Robertson has averaged just 3.07 yellow cards per game in the Scottish Premiership this season, that figure has been on the rise in recent months, with the Scottish whistler reaching for his pocket at least 4 times in 6 of the last 7 matches that he has taken charge of across all competitions. Given what’s at stake on Sunday, I would expect that trend to continue.

Rangers can usually be relied on for high corner counts, and I expect Sunday’s clash with Hearts to be no different, particularly with the onus on the hosts to go all out for 3 points. The Light Blues’ Scottish top-flight fixtures this season are generating a sizeable average of 10.73 corner kicks per game. That is largely down to Rangers themselves being prolific corner performers, posting an average of 6.50 per 90.

Hearts, as you would expect, also rank highly for team corners, averaging 5.38 per game, with their matches producing an overall average of 9.81. Derek McInnes’ side are well-known for getting early crosses into the box, often forcing corner situations, which they have proven very adept at scoring from this season. The Jam Tarts should therefore rack up more than their fair share at Ibrox.

The case for backing this selection is bolstered by the fact that the previous two meetings between these sides this season delivered corner totals of 11 and 16, with Rangers winning the corner battle on both occasions. With all that in mind, I’m more than happy to back both teams to combine for over 7.5 flag kicks on Sunday.

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Football

Arsenal v Wigan Bet Builder @ 3.49

Wigan were beaten 2-1 by Reading on Tuesday night, a result which deepens their troubles in the relegation zone of League One. They now sit in the bottom three, only two points adrift of safety, but there has been no real sign of improvement after four successive league defeats.

Last weekend’s 6-1 defeat against Peterborough was their most recent away outing, highlighting a vulnerability on the road. Wigan’s away record now stands at two wins, seven draws, and seven losses from 16 League One matches, with 18 goals scored and 30 conceded. It has been a really poor season for the Tics, as they haven’t really been able to exert any control on their games.

Arsenal are likely to rotate this weekend, but the depth at Mikel Arteta’s disposal means they can still field a very strong eleven - there is a massive gulf in quality between these two sides.

Arsenal are accustomed to coming into matches as favourites, but they are an especially short price to win this weekend. They faced Portsmouth in the previous round of the FA Cup and, despite going 1-0 down inside three minutes, responded to comfortably win that game 4-1. Arsenal were able to press home their advantage after going down, and they racked up eight corners.

It is also worth noting that Wigan are a division below Portsmouth, and Arsenal now have home advantage. The Gunners should be able to control proceedings from the off, and this one is expected to be one-way traffic.

Arsenal are averaging 6.05 corners per game across all competitions this season, but that is mostly against Premier League and Champions League opponents. Mikel Arteta’s men should be able to sustain pressure at the Emirates, and Portsmouth will likely have to endure wave after wave of attacks.

Gabriel Martinelli delivered a standout performance against Portsmouth in the previous FA Cup round, helping himself to a hat-trick. The Brazilian registered six shots in total, and even missed two big chances, underlining just how frequently he was finding space in dangerous areas. All three of his goals came from inside the six-yard box, simple finishes that highlighted Arsenal’s ability to cut through their opponents.

Martinelli has not featured as regularly as he might have hoped this season, so he will be eager to seize his opportunity here. He now has ten goals across all competitions, matching last season’s tally, and this fixture is the perfect opportunity for him to get on the scoresheet again

In Wigan’s heavy defeat to Peterborough, Kyrell Lisbie fired in a hat-trick from the left wing, operating in a similar zone to Martinelli, which bodes well for this selection.

Eberechi Eze has not quite enjoyed the level of involvement he would have anticipated since joining Arsenal in the summer, as the Englishman has been reduced to a bench role by Arteta. However, Eze did play the full 90 minutes in the previous round against Portsmouth, where he registered two shots, one of which hit the target.

Eze has only shown glimpses of his quality this far, but this type of fixture should allow him to operate with greater freedom between the lines. He will likely occupy central areas just outside the box, where he is comfortable receiving on the half turn and getting shots off.

Despite his limited game time, Eze is averaging 1.96 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and he draws an excellent matchup here to increase that figure. He hopes to use this opportunity to try to make a case to start in the bigger games.

Football

Napoli v Roma Double @ 1.70

It was a cagey and tightly-contested affair when the sides last met back in November, but David Neres scored the only goal of the match at the Stadio Olimpico to send all three points back to Naples. Napoli have fared well against Roma in recent years, and have only lost one of the last 10 head-to-head meetings across all competitions. It also finished 1-0 when the sides last met at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium, as Roma managed just six shots worth 0.57 xG on their travels. 

Taking points from Naples has proven to be no easy task this season - Napoli still have their unbeaten record intact on home turf this season. With eight wins and three draws from their 11 home games in Serie A this season, only Inter Milan have picked up more points in front of a home crowd.

Napoli are drawing an average of 1.83 cards per game at home this season, which is nothing to write home about, but that figure looks set to rise. The Derby del Sole tends to be a feisty affair, and there were seven yellow cards brandished when the sides met earlier in the season. Once again, the rivalry aspect makes this market appeal, especially as this match could have big implications in the race for the top four. 

There were only three cards shown when the sides last met in Naples, but Roma accounted for all three. They have been a much more aggressive side this season, averaging 1.97 yellow cards per game, which rises steeply to 2.38 cards per game when playing away.


Andy Robson’s Tips – Free Football Betting Tips Today

Now you can find all of Andy Robson’s football tips in one place. Andy’s Tips is a hub for all of the tips and predictions from his socials – and they’re free.

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Andy Robson’s betting tips are the number one source of quality sports betting content in the UK. Andy is dedicated to helping people bet smarter.

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