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This Brazil side look really strong. After being a little slow in the opener against Morocco, they've now had back-to-back 3-0 wins against Haiti and Scotland (didn't need reminding).

Although Japan are a strong side, I don't think they'll have enough to beat Brazil. They came close to losing to the Netherlands, saved only by a late equaliser, and in that game they lost the xG battle and managed fewer shots on target than their opponents.

I'm expecting plenty of goals though, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Japan score, but I do think Brazil outscore them given the current form of both Cunha and Vinicius.

France look really good. They've scored at least three goals in all of their games so far, against Senegal, Norway and Iraq.

They face a Sweden side who were humiliated 5-1 by the Netherlands, and now face an even stronger side with Mbappe still chasing down the golden boot.

The French are still favourites for this tournament, and I think they'll show why here.

Paraguay were demolished 4-1 by the USA in the group stage, their only win came against Turkiye, and they even drew 0-0 against Australia. This is a strong Germany side who battered Curacao 7-1 in their group.

The loss against Ecuador doesn't worry me. They had nothing to play for and knew they'd top the group regardless, so will have played with a lot less intensity.

This is the sort of game I can see Germany scoring three goals and covering the line on their own, and it would be a huge upset if they don't manage to win.

This one feels pretty straightforward on paper. I hate to doubt Cape Verde, but I just can't see them keeping this run of form going.

They conceded 2.10xG to Spain, with Spain managing 27 shots and 7 on target. Uruguay racked up 2.32xG, but only two shots on target. They are clearly getting a little lucky, even if their goalkeeper and defence have been playing really well.

With the form Messi is in right now, I just can't see them keeping a clean sheet, and once that first goal goes in and they need to take more risks, I can see Argentina getting even more chances.

I feel that rotation against France will give Norway a huge benefit against Ivory Coast. Although Ivory Coast rotated a little, they still had some of their key players feature.

Norway, and more specifically Haaland, were scoring goals for fun in the group stage

They defeated Iraq 4-1 and Senegal 3-2, with Haaland scoring four of those.

Ivory Coast haven't looked bad, but Norway have too much firepower to not score a few goals, and in their defeat to Germany in the group stage they conceded seven shots on target. An early goal should really open this up.

Brian Brobbey has become one of the main men for Ronald Koeman's Netherlands side at this World Cup.

The Sunderland striker has three goals to his name already this tournament, and is averaging 1.76 shots on target per 90.

He averaged 0.84 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League for Sunderland this season, and has had a shot on target in each of the two World Cup games he has featured in this summer.

I’ve backed this angle regularly during the group stage of the World Cup, and it has landed in all three of Brazil’s games against Haiti, Scotland, and Morocco.

There is something not quite right about Brazil’s backline. Alisson was forced into making five saves against Scotland last time out, and a side with more quality in the final third than Steve Clarke’s side would have definitely punished Brazil’s casual nature at the back.

Alisson was required just as often for Brazil during qualifying, making 26 saves across just six starts (2.93 per 90) with a save percentage of 81.2%. Brazil clearly rely on the Liverpool goalkeeper, who is very experienced and, in my view, still world-class.

This should be an entertaining contest between two nations who would have been hoping for such a tie a bit later on in the knockout stages.

I’ve been impressed with both, and I see this as a very even contest - the odds make Brazil favourites to qualify, but I wouldn’t be in a rush to back them to win this game; it could very well go the distance.

I do think we’ll see goals. Brazil’s backline is quite disorganised, and I think Morocco gave sides a blueprint when it comes to breaking them down. Brazil have seen 2+ goals in all three of their matches at the World Cup so far, and so have Japan - both sides are yet to lose in the tournament.

BTTS is another angle worth exploring, but for this bet builder, I think taking 2+ goals is a solid angle in what should be a competitive game in one of the more competitive Round of 32 clashes, as neither of these sides would look out of place in the quarter finals.

Matheus Cunha is improving with every game as Brazil’s striker, which is one of the most difficult roles to play in world football. 

There’s so much pressure on leading the line for a country like Brazil, where the expectations are so high, but Cunha has the personality to play this role and has performed well so far.

Cunha has scored three goals across his two starts at the World Cup, striking against Haiti and Scotland. Brazil obviously face a much tougher assignment here, but what really stands out for Cunha is just how many shots he’s able to get away. 

He’s had seven shots across these two starts (3.73 per 90), which may feel like an inflated figure given the small sample size, but this is actually an output that Cunha manages regularly.

Cunha managed 90 shots across his 29 starts for Manchester United during the 25/26 Premier League campaign (3.24 per 90), seeing 35 of these efforts find the target (1.26 per 90). He’s not very considerate with these efforts, which actually plays to our advantage as he’s willing to take on speculative efforts from a distance.

Bruno Guimaraes has always been really good when it comes to winning fouls, drawing 2+ fouls in all three of his World Cup games so far.

Guimaraes is really strong and difficult to knock off the ball. I’ve already mentioned the difference in physicality and height between these sides, which I think will allow Brazil to gain control of this game at times and put Guimaraes in a few situations to win fouls.

Guimaraes started 16 games for Brazil during qualifying and was fouled 36 times (2.45 per 90). This lines up well with how often he wins fouls for Newcastle (2.75 per 90) and makes him an obvious candidate to win at least two fouls in this clash.

The one area that slightly concerns me with Japan is the lack of height in the side. They are technically a fantastic side and put together one of the best team goals I’ve seen in international football against Sweden last time out. 

That level of understanding and cohesion is rare in international football, but it doesn’t protect them from set pieces, which could be Brazil’s best avenue to goal here.

Japan are one of the smallest sides at the tournament, and sides have been trying to target this with Japan conceding 3+ corners in all three of their group games, including against Tunisia. 

Brazil have won 4+ corners in all three of their group games and do have aerial threats which can take advantage of the lack of height in this Japan side. Casemiro and Gabriel, in particular, stand out to me as players who could really pose a threat from corners, and I think Ancelotti will be factoring this into his game plan.

Paraguay suffered a 4-1 defeat to the USA in their opening game, looking completely disorganised at the back.

They were then fortunate to hold on for a 1-0 win against Turkey, before Paraguay then played out a goalless stalemate against Australia to secure their position in third. Diego Gomez, who is one of their key players in the heart of midfield, picked up his second yellow card of the tournament against the Socceroos last time out, meaning he will be suspended for this clash.

The odds are stacked against Paraguay, and Germany will hope to capitalise. With ten goals scored at the World Cup so far, no side has been as effective as the Germans at finding the back of the net.

Even though seven of those came against Curacao in Germany’s opening World Cup fixture, they have still been fluid in the final third. Germany recorded exactly eight corners against Curacao and the Ivory Coast, respectively.

Paraguay have had less of the ball than their opponents in all three World Cup games so far - in fact, they are averaging just 33% possession. That includes having just 21% of the ball against Turkey in round two, when Paraguay conceded 12 corners. The South American side typically sit in a compact low block, inviting pressure from their opponents.

Germany should dominate proceedings here and spend most of the game in their attacking third, which makes corners a target.

No player has taken more shots than Nmecha for Germany at this World Cup, but Florian Wirtz has matched his tally so far, and he is another player who recorded multiple shots in every group stage appearance.

Given that Germany are the highest scorers in the competition at this stage, it is perhaps a surprise that Wirtz is yet to find the back of the net.

His involvement in the final third has remained consistent, and he should continue to find chances against Paraguay here. They conceded 60 shots in their three group stage games, and Paraguay's opponents recorded at least five shots on target in all three of those.

Despite operating in a defensive midfield role, Felix Nmecha has recorded eight shots at the World Cup so far, which is the joint-most in the German squad.

He has consistently looked to break into the box to create overloads, so Nmecha has landed this selection in all three starts for Germany so far. That includes four shots against Curacao in round one, of which three hit the target, and one found the back of the net to get Germany off the mark.

With Paraguay expected to sit deep and soak up German pressure, Nmecha should be able to pick up promising advanced positions to get a couple of shots away.

Jamal Musiala is another German player who will hope to cause problems in the final third here, as he has looked back to his best in recent games.

The 23-year-old was fouled five times against Ecuador last time out, taking his average to 3.79 fouls drawn per 90 at this World Cup. Not only is that the highest figure in the German squad, but it’s also one of the highest of any player in the tournament.

Andres Cubas will have the tough task of trying to contain him, and he looks set for a massive responsibility in midfield here with Diego Gomez suspended. Cubas has racked up 11 fouls across his three World Cup matches already, showing just how aggressive he is.

On the opposite side, Joshua Kimmich should be given much more attacking freedom from right-back, with the chance to push forward and contribute to attacks.

Kimmich provided two assists against Curacao in round one, and he was again heavily involved against the Ivory Coast. Despite failing to record an assist in that game, the Bayern Munich captain still created two big chances.

Kimmich is the designated set-piece taker for his side, and Germany should have plenty of opportunities to send the ball into the box here.

The 31-year-old managed 12 assists for Bayern Munich this season across all competitions, which shows how effective he is at picking out teammates from his pinpoint crosses.

Matias Galarza scored the all-important goal for Paraguay against Turkey, which earned his side three points.

That was a key reason why Paraguay finished third in Group D. Fonda also scored two goals in six appearances for Paraguay in their qualifying campaign - impressively, he only started three of those games.

Fonda carries a real threat from midfield, and he has shown a tendency to provide moments of inspiration on the big stage. He is one of Paraguay’s biggest transitional threats, and will hope to capitalise on this German back line, who are still yet to keep a clean sheet at the World Cup.

After being shown a red card for covering his mouth against Turkey, Miguel Almiron was suspended for Paraguay's final group game against Australia.

The former Newcastle man will be available to return here, and he will have to play a big role if Paraguay are to compete against Germany.

Almiron is typically used as Paraguay's primary outlet when they transition from defence to attack, and he often looks to carry the ball. He averaged 1.73 fouls drawn per 90 for Paraguay throughout their qualifying matches, which was one of the highest figures in the squad.

Germany can be quite aggressive in their press, particularly in midfield, and they racked up 18 fouls against Curacao in round one.

That tally of 11 infringements is unsurprisingly the most of any Paraguay player, but Juan Jose Caceres is not too far behind, with seven fouls to his name.

The fullback has recorded at least two fouls in all three World Cup matches so far, and he was booked in the opening fixture against the USA. He tends to be quite reckless in his challenges, and Caceres had an average of 1.95 fouls per 90 for Paraguay throughout their World Cup qualifying campaign.

It is likely to be relentless pressure from the Germans here, and Caceres will primarily be up against Wirtz on the flank. The fullback will have plenty of defensive work to get through in this knockout tie.

On paper, this Netherlands backline should be one of the strongest at the World Cup, but that has been far from the case so far with Ronald Koeman’s side conceding in all three of their group matches. 

Bart Verbruggen has been pretty busy across these games as well, making 11 saves across his three starts (3.67 per 90) with a save percentage of 73.3%.

I quite like Verbruggen, he’s a decent shot stopper and has shown that he can cope with the pressure - if it wasn’t for his saves, the Netherlands could find themselves in a very different situation.

Morocco have the attacking talent to test him at least twice; they forced two saves from Alisson against Brazil in their opening game and also drew eight saves from Placide in the Haiti net last time out.

I usually expect knockout round ties to be quite tight and tense, but I do think we’ll get some entertaining games in the Round of 32, and this should be one of them.

The Netherlands have seen 2+ goals in all three of their World Cup matches so far, notably failing to keep a clean sheet in any of these games.

Morocco have seen 2+ goals in two of their three matches so far, with the exception of their 1-0 win over Scotland, which was made a scrappy affair by Steve Clarke’s side, who were trying to avoid a heavy defeat.

Morocco also showed a few signs of defensive vulnerability against Haiti in their final group game, conceding two goals to the minnows in a 4-2 victory.

Cody Gakpo is really suited to international football; he’s always delivered for the Netherlands, and this tournament has been no different, with three goal contributions across his three starts so far. 

He’s taken nine shots across these games (3.14 per 90), seeing five of these efforts find the target (1.74 per 90). He was just as effective for the Netherlands during qualifying, with eight goal contributions across eight starts, four of these being goals.

Gakpo found the target eight times across these matches (1.10 per 90) from a wider average of 2.48 shots per 90. I think he’ll be key to any success that the Netherlands get in this tie given his impressive record at the international level - Gakpo has netted 23 goals across just 53 caps, which is a decent return for a winger.

Hakimi is going to be involved in a key battle here against Cody Gakpo, which could end up deciding the outcome of this clash. Hakimi loves to get forward; he’s created 11 chances from right back already for Morocco (3.67 per 90), which is more than any other player at the World Cup.

This does leave a bit of a gap behind him, though, which is where Gakpo can really profit. The Liverpool winger averaged 1.79 fouls won per 90 during qualifying and will be aware of how often Hakimi likes to get forward. 

Hakimi often has to make recovery challenges as a result of wanting to push forward so often and has committed four fouls across his three starts at the World Cup so far (1.33 per 90).

He averaged 1.61 fouls per 90 across his four starts at AFCON earlier this year, showing a clear trend when it comes to committing fouls for his national side.

I love Ismael Saibari, and I'm really looking forward to seeing him at Bayern Munich next season after he secured a well-earned move on the back of a strong season for PSV.

He’s been leading the line for Morocco at the World Cup, which is a really smart move by Mohamed Ouahbi, as Saibari’s traits make him the best player to pull together this Moroccan frontline, which has been fun to watch so far and really fluid.

Saibari has scored in all three of his World Cup matches so far, earning man of the match in two of these games. He’s taken 10 shots across these games (3.70 per 90) and has been very clinical with all three of his attempts on target ending up in the back of the net.

Saibari scored three goals across three starts for Morocco during qualifying, managing five shots on target across those appearances (1.47 per 90).

Vinicius Jr has really stepped up to the pressure at the World Cup so far. It may look like Brazil’s opponents have been relatively easy on paper, but this is a nation that hasn’t won the World Cup since 2002 - so delivering under this pressure is worth applauding, especially as Neymar is waiting in the shadows behind him.

Vinicius Jr has scored in all three games for Brazil so far, netting two goals against Scotland last time out. I really like how Ancelotti is using Vinicius Jr at the moment.

The Italian boss is very good at managing players with big egos, and Vinicius seems to really be responding to his instructions, which mainly involve allowing him to stay high up the pitch at all times, with Douglas Santos willing to do all the defensive work behind him.

This is probably something that an elite nation could expose with a bit of tactical mastery, but it does allow Vinicius to be a constant threat. He registered 34 goal contributions across 59 starts for Real Madrid during the 25/26 campaign and enters this clash with a lot of confidence.

Ayase Ueda is a very clever striker. His movement is incredible and subtle, to the point where he’s very difficult to track, and after seeing how Ismael Saibari easily cut through the centre back duo of Gabriel and Marquinhos, I think the Feyenoord forward has success here.

Ueda scored more goals than any other player in the Eredivisie during the 25/26 campaign (25), which was eight more than the next top scorer in the league. He managed 102 shots across his 31 starts (3.62 per 90), with an average of 1.62 shots on target per 90.

He’s already opened his account at the World Cup with a brace over Tunisia and has taken seven shots across his three starts so far (1.15 per 90). I give Japan more of a chance than the odds suggest in this tie and think Ueda can get chances against a Brazil backline that can be exposed when put under the spotlight.

Following on from my point about the lack of height in this Japan side, I think this is an excellent price for Gabriel to have a shot on target, given how good he is when it comes to attacking set pieces.

I haven’t seen many centre-backs dominate the box as much as Gabriel does from corners and set pieces. He’s really strong, but his movement is what sets him apart from other defenders who may just rely on their strength. 

He hasn’t quite had the opportunity to show this side of his game at the World Cup yet, but did get a shot away from a corner against Scotland last time out. I expect Brazil to register at least four corners in this game, so there should be more chances for Gabriel to have an attempt on target.

Gabriel managed 27 shots across his 30 starts for Arsenal during the 25/26 season (0.88 per 90), scoring three goals across these games. He doesn’t quite have the same delivery he gets at Arsenal, but he’s still a real danger from these situations, and the physical mismatch could be what separates these sides.

Daichi Kamada is going to have a very important role here if Japan are to progress from this round of the World Cup, and I can see him struggling at times with Brazil’s midfield trio of Casemiro, Paqueta, and Guimaraes - all of whom are very strong when it comes to winning fouls.

I’ve already touched on how good Guimaraes has been at winning fouls, winning 2+ fouls in all three of his matches so far, but Paqueta has also been pretty effective in this department, with 2+ fouls won in two of his three games at the World Cup so far. 

Kamada is quite a dogged player. He does have decent technical ability, but I think he’ll be more valuable to Japan here through his work when out of possession. He averaged 1.42 fouls committed per 90 across his 22 starts for Crystal Palace during the 25/26 campaign and also maintained an average of 1.23 fouls committed per 90 during qualifying for Japan.

Cindy Lou Who has finished in the top three in 58% of their 18 lifetime races.

Cindy Lou Who's course-and-distance tag on today's card suits her; last year she was a course winner on this exact trip in July, beating a field of 10. That win last year came on soft ground came on whereas today's is good to firm, but she has one across a real range of ground, so the quicker ground shouldn't be an issue.

This distance of 6f is clearly best for her as she has several other victories, including one at Leicester and a runner-up at Chepstow over 6f.

Her trainer, Tony Carroll, comes into this in good form with a 25-28% strike rate across the last fortnight, and her jockey, William Carson, has a strong partnership with both Carroll and Cindy Lou Who, with him being her regular partner and the one who brought her home at Windsor last year.

Antiphon has finished in the top four in 59% of their 59 lifetime races.

This track clearly suits Antiphon strongly; he's among the most proven course performers in this field, and the Racing Post describe him as a "Windsor specialist".

Today's Good to Firm ground shouldn't be an issue with his course wins generally coming on similar conditions.

Antiphon has operated between 5f and 6f throughout his long career, so this distance is in his comfort zone.

Trainer Mike Murphy has a 43% strike rate on today's racecard, and Saffie Osborne rides today, an in-form young jockey with a long history of riding Antiphon, including past assignments at Windsor with him.

Antiphon's recent form shows an overall picture of consistency, a string of placed efforts (2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd) with a minor recent blip finishing 9th last time out, but that was against stronger opposition. Today, Antiphon will be much more competitive.

Explode has finished in the top three in 55% of their nine lifetime races.

Explode has raced three times across today's distance of 1m2f and has finished in the top three two of those three races. That is a decent record, and today Explode will be wearing a tongue tie for the first time, which should address a breathing and concentration issue.

In this class, Explode is just below the top-rated horses in this race, but recent figure of a couple second place finishes and one win show he can be competitive at this level.

Combining this with Trainer Faye Bramley, who has a 42% strike rate, and Sean Levey, a vastly experience mid tier jockey, Explode has a genuinely solid recent profile and should do well today.

Trafalgar has finished in the top three in 62% of their eight lifetime races.

Trafalgar has multiple Windsor starts across his career most notably two second-place finishes last year in August showing he's not just there to make up the numbers.

His second-place finishes were also on the same ground conditions as well as 5f-6f being his bread and butter distance. Trainer B I Chase can have some confidence going into this one.

His Jockey today, Harry Davies, will also be feeling confident the horse can deliver, having ridden Trafalgar to a win at Yarmouth last year.

Trafalgar's overall form picture is one of consistency, picking up places and occasionally winning when conditions click, just like they have today.

SHIMMERING SANDS (10.0) made his seasonal debut earlier this month when scoring over course and distance, and although he is racing 4lb higher on his return, he is still racing off a workable mark given his peak form.

A rough few years for Shimmering Sands after failing to win in his last 18 appearances, which spanned over three years. However, making his return earlier this month after a seven-month absence, the seven-year-old didn’t disappoint when staying on well in the latter stages to get up in the final strides. A solid performance given his return from a lengthy absence and with a race under his belt, another bold bid is expected.

Although racing off a 4lb higher mark on his return to Pontefract, he is a previous winner off a mark of 72, which leaves plenty of scope for improvement, and with the young up-and-coming Henry Callan in the saddle, the duo hold bold claims.

A LITTLE SOMETHING (8.7) is producing career-best form this year since making the transition to the larger obstacles, and given her performance last time out at Fontwell, further progress looks likely for the mare.

Winless in her previous eight appearances over hurdles, A Little Something has been a different proposition over fences, producing results of 2,2,1,1 in her last four starts. Solid form since making the transition, and considering her two latest wins have been by wide margins, the hat-trick is well within reach.

Dominating over course and distance last month before scoring by 12 lengths last time out at Fontwell, she is handed an 11lb rise on the back of this, but given her current mood, this doesn’t look enough to defy her hat-trick.

Producing her best on firmer ground, conditions are perfect for the seven-year-old, and there is nothing to suggest she won’t continue to improve on her return to Stratford.

Vinicius Jr has proven once again why he is the leading man for Brazil at this World Cup.

He already has four goals to his name in his three group stage appearances, and looks set to cause Japan problems on Monday evening.

The Real Madrid star is averaging a whopping 2.77 shots on target per 90 at this World Cup, and his foul number also supports this boost.

He is averaging 1.38 fouls per 90 this summer, and has been fouled 2.07 times per 90 as well.