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Football

Andy's El Clasico Boost 🇪🇸⚡ @ 12.00

Andy Robson

This is as short as 8.00 elsewhere

I won't state too much here as these pick themselves, clearly.

Yamal has a ridiculous 14 goal contributions in nine league matches played so far as he's scored eight goals and provided six assists. He has scored or assisted in each of his last 10 appearances for Barcelona across all competitions.

Mbappe has also amounted more goal contributions than matches played so far. In La Liga, he has nine goals scored and two assists across his first nine appearances.

This season, Barcelona average 7.33 corners taken per game and Real Madrid average 6.44 corners taken per game. If both sides get close to their average in this meeting then a couple in each half for both teams has a great chance.

Last season there were 28 corners taken between them across the two league meetings. In the first, Real Madrid took 12 corners and Barcelona took four, and both had 2+ in each half. In the second, Barcelona took four and Real Madrid took eight, and it fell just one short of the 2+ each half.

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Football

El Clasico High Odds Bet Builder 🔥🧱 @ 37.23

Andy Robson

Tchouameni has won 2+ fouls in 3/5 v Barca

On the opposite side, Kylian Mbappe is the danger man for Real Madrid, and his importance has only increased with Vinicius Junior suspended this weekend.

The Frenchman was on the scoresheet against Leipzig midweek, and it could have easily been a brace, if Arda Guler didn’t tap in from close range. 

Mbappe has scored 12 goals in 12 games this season, with four of those in his last three starts alone.

He looks well set to extend his impressive form, and his record against Barcelona is impressive.

Mbappe has scored seven goals in five starts against the Catalans, landing this selection in all of those.

With his pace in behind, he has the potential to exploit the Barca high line.

After being rested midweek, Aurelien Tchouameni is expected to return to the starting XI this weekend against Barcelona.

The Frenchman has only been fouled twice in his five starts this season, averaging just 0.41 fouls drawn per 90, but this is a very different kind of fixture. 

When these sides last met, Real Madrid were fouled 18 times, and Tchouameni landed this selection by accounting for two of those.

In fact, his figures rise steeply against Barcelona to 1.26 fouls drawn per 90 in his 11 starts.

He has landed this selection in three of his last five starts against Barcelona, which makes this price look good value.

Ibrahima Konate is another Real Madrid player who was afforded a rest by Jose Mourinho midweek, as he remained an unused substitute.

The former Liverpool man has been a regular starter at the back this season, and he is averaging 1.3 fouls per 90.

Konate has been consistent when it comes to recording fouls, with at least one to his name in each of his last nine successive starts.

He has also been booked in four of those, highlighting how he does at times get caught out of position, and forced into committing cynical fouls. 

This will be Konate’s first El Clasico, and he will have to deal with the likes of Ferran Torres, Raphina and Yamal up front.

It’s a tough defensive assignment for the Frenchman.

Xavi Espart also looks set for his first El Clasico start this weekend, after the 19-year-old scored against PSG midweek.

Espart has burst onto the scene for Barca this campaign, and has quickly emerged as the main starter at left back.

He has started eight games under Hansi Flick so far, and is averaging 1.82 fouls per 90 across all competitions.

Espart has perhaps been lucky to only escape with one booking so far, but he is a player who likes to be aggressive in his tackles. 

Espart has made it through the La Masia academy, and has been at the club for 11 years. If he starts at the back, it will be a big occasion for the Spaniard, and he should be fired up.

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Football

Sunderland v Leeds Bet Builder 🧱 @ 4.72

Andy Robson

Sunderland have only managed to win one of their opening seven PL games

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored four goals already in the Premier League this season, building on the 14 Premier League goals he netted last season.

Calvert-Lewin has always been capable of performing at this level, it’s just that injuries have held him back prior to joining Leeds - but he looks to have come through the worst of those issues and hasn’t missed multiple games for some time.

Calvert-Lewin has had a shot on target in five of his seven Premier League appearances this season, scoring against United last time out. No Leeds player has had more shots than Calvert-Lewin this season (14 - 2.10 per 90), with an impressive 57% of these attempts finding the target. 

As we go into gameweek eight of the Premier League, no player has committed more fouls than Dominic Calvert-Lewis so far.

The Leeds striker has landed this bet in five of his seven starts, averaging 2.25 fouls per 90. Calvert-Lewin has approached this season with an increased aggression, and he finds himself in a rich vein of form. Leeds look to play direct to their centre forward as often as possible, which gives Calvert-Lewin plenty of aerial duels to contest. 

The former Everton man is always looking to make life difficult for opposing centre backs, and he should find duels against Nordi Mukiele, who has been fouled in five of his last six starts, and Reinildo who is averaging 1.51 fouls drawn per 90 this season.

Sunderland have struggled for consistency this season, but Le Fee has been a standout performer again and has drawn 14 fouls across his seven starts in the Premier League (2.07 per 90).

Le Fee has been fouled at least once in all seven of his Premier League matches this term, drawing multiple fouls in four of these games.

He was fouled four times against Bournemouth last time out, which does inflate his average - but also shows just how effective Le Fee can be at winning fouls when against the right opponent. 

Le Fee will be up against a Leeds side that play with three players in midfield in Farke’s 3-4-3 system. I’m particularly interested in his duels with Anton Stach here, the Leeds man has an obvious physical advantage over Le Fee - but the Frenchman can be clever in this battle to win fouls.

Stach has committed 14 fouls across his seven starts in the Premier League this term (2.01 per 90), and is the shortest player with most books to commit a foul here. 

I’m not surprised that Sunderland are struggling this season.

European football was always going to be a tough ask for a side that just earned promotion to the top flight last year, and Le Bris is finding it difficult to maintain that balance between their European assignments and Premier League matches.

Sunderland have only managed to win one of their opening seven Premier League matches, with that win coming against Fulham in their first home game of the season.

They’re not quite as resilient at the Stadium of Light as they were last season, losing the two home games since that victory over Fulham and only scoring one goal across these matches.

Leeds are flying at the moment, losing just one of their opening seven Premier League matches. They’ve only lost one of their three away trips - which was a defeat against Arsenal, where they were actually quite unlucky not to come away with at least a point.

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Football

El Clasico Bet Builder 🇪🇸🧱 @ 3.50

Andy Robson

La Masia Lopez gets fired up for Clasicos

Hansi Flick’s men were dealt their first defeat of the season in midweek, as they lost 4-2 against PSG.

It was always going to be a tough matchup for the Catalans at the Parc-des-Princes, and they will hope to bounce back at the Nou Camp this weekend.

Barcelona currently have the flawless record of nine wins from nine in the league, putting them six points above Real Madrid, and the Catalans have scored 39 goals in their nine league matches.

Real Madrid are quite a bit behind with 23 goals to their name, but they come into this clash in a rich vein of form.

They beat RB Leipzig 4-1 on Wednesday night, meaning they have now scored 11 goals in their last three games alone.

This is a clash between two of the strongest attacking units in Europe, making goals a market to target.

Dani Olmo was substituted after 27 minutes with an injury midweek, which means Fermin Lopez should get the nod to start here.

The 23-year-old committed two fouls against PSG despite coming off the bench, and he was fortunate to escape a booking in the end.

Fermin is averaging 1.92 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has landed this selection in each of his last three starts. 

The Spaniard has a notable foul record against Real Madrid. Fermin has made nine El Clasico appearances in his career, with four of those off the bench.

Still, he is averaging 3.05 fouls per 90, and has been carded in four of those.

Fermin plays with an added intensity in this derby, and the La Masia graduate is one to keep an eye on here.

He is likely to find duels against Jude Bellingham in midfield.

The Englishman has been a magnet for drawing fouls this season, averaging 3.2 fouls drawn per 90 which is the highest in the Real Madrid squad.

He has landed this selection in 10 of his 12 appearances in total. 

Bellingham is not short of El Clasico appearances, with 10 starts against the Catalans, and he has landed this bet in every single game.

He is averaging 2.72 fouls drawn per 90 against Barcelona, and he was fouled five times when these sides last met.

Lamine Yamal didn’t quite put in his best performance midweek against PSG, but the winger still managed to find the back of the net as Barcelona were beaten 4-2.

Yamal is so difficult to keep out of the game, and this looks like a better matchup for him going forward against Real Madrid. 

The 19-year-old has already hit double digits for goals and assists this season, with 10 goals and 10 assists to his name in just 12 appearances across all competitions.

He is on track to improve on his numbers of 24 goals and 17 assists in the previous campaign, which shows how he is only getting better.

Whether it’s going down the line to cross, or cutting inside onto his stronger left foot to shoot, Yamal is so difficult to contain.

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Football

Sunderland v Leeds High Odds Bet Builder 🔥🧱 @ 13.68

Andy Robson

Sunderland have really missed the presence of Brobbey

Anton Stach has impressed me since joining Leeds from Hoffenheim last summer, settling in straight away to provide eight goal contributions across his 28 starts in his debut campaign.

Stach was signed as part of Leeds’ push to sign physical, tall and hardworking players, which are essential traits in the Premier League given the intense style of play in the division.

Stach scored a brilliant free kick against Nottingham Forest on Matchday 1, showing his quality from long range. Four of his five goals in the Premier League last season came from outside the box, so he’s not afraid to take aim and will be an asset for Leeds from shooting range free kicks.

Stach has also been quite fortunate to avoid a caution so far, having committed 14 fouls across his seven starts in the division (2.01 per 90). I’ve already highlighted the threat of Le Fee for my lower odds BB, and Stach will also have to contend with the likes of Xhaka and Sadiki. 

Sunderland have missed the presence of Brian Brobbey, who last featured against Man City before the international break - scoring a hat trick.

He returned to the bench for the Europa League during the week, and is expected to come into the starting lineup here. Brobbey’s hold up play is one of the best of any striker in the division, but he regularly oversteps the mark having committed eight fouls across his five starts (1.80 per 90).

Brobbey will be up against a back three here for Leeds, naturally outnumbering him as Sunderland’s only striker. Brobbey committed 32 fouls across his 22 starts in the Premier League last season (1.49 per 90), notably collecting six yellow cards.

Noah Sadiki is best known for his defensive work, but has shown consistency with his shot numbers this term - taking seven across his seven Premier League starts (1.06 per 90).

Only four Sunderland players have had more shots than Sadiki in the Premier League this term, as Regis Le Bris looks to diversify their source of goals. Brian Brobbey, who has been injured since the international break, is still the top scorer in the Premier League with three - no other Sunderland player has more than one. 

Sadiki has had a shot in two of Sunderland’s three home games this season, with the exception of their defeat to Brighton. He even managed a shot against an Arsenal side who are the best team in the Premier League at limiting efforts from opposition sides.

I think Leeds have a real advantage in games like this, as one of the few mid table sides not to be competing in any European competition.

Sunderland had to travel to Poland during the week, after making the trip to Portugal the week prior. Their squad isn’t big enough to keep a solid intensity domestically around these European assignments, as we saw in their 2-0 defeat to Bournemouth which was sandwiched between those European ties.

Sunderland have won just one of their opening seven matches in the Premier League, and only three sides in the division have conceded more goals than the Black Cats (14). They’ve also lost two of their three home matches, scoring just once across these games. 

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NFL

Sunday's Redzone Accumulator 🏈 @ 8.88

ABC Editorial Team

The Titans' offense is joint-worst in the NFL alongside the Miami Dolphins

The Ravens may be 4-2 on the season, but they have faced some pretty straightforward opposition, namely the Colts, Saints, Cowboys, Titans, Falcons, and Browns.

They come into this game off the back of a 13-10 defeat to Cleveland last Sunday. The Bengals - who beat the Dolphins 24-31 in Week 5 - represent a step up in class, while they will also be fresher, coming into this game off a bye.

Doubts also persist over whether Lamar Jackson will play having missed the last 2 games, but even if he does, he tends to struggle when coming back from injury. The Ravens (26.0 PPG) and Bengals (25.6 PPG) are evenly-matched offensively, and the same is true defensively (Ravens 22.0 OPP PPG, Bengals 21.8 OPP PPG).

With doubts over Jackson, the Bengals' bye-week, and Cincinnati being the toughest opposition Baltimore has faced, I'm liking the +1.5 on the Bengals.

The Titans' offense is joint-worst in the NFL alongside the Miami Dolphins, with both sides scoring an average of just 14.0 PPG this season. Cleveland, meanwhile, isn't much better. They sit joint-28th with Philadelphia with just 17.7 PPG. Combined, this is a total of 31.7 PPG, 6.8 under this line. 

Defensively, both sides are in the top-half of the standings, with Cleveland joint-5th with the Seahawks and the Jets with an average of 20.3 OPP PPG. Tennessee sits 13th with an average of 21.5 OPP PPG. 

Ultimately, the two poor offenses should keep this game below this total - in addition to their poor scoring, the Titans are also rank bottom in yards per game with just 236.3. They only had 186.0 vs. the Colts last time out. Cleveland ranks 4th-bottom in offensive yards per game with 267.5, with just 237.0 last time out vs. Baltimore.

Tampa Bay's offense has struggled this season - they sit 25th in the NFL with an average of 19.8 PPG. In contrast, Carolina sits 4th, averaging 29.2 PPG. There are question marks over the fitness of Baker Mayfield, but they haven't formed particularly well both with and without him.

Defensively, Tampa Bay and Carolina are quite similar, with the Bucs having an OPP PPG of 23.0 (17th in the NFL) and the Panthers 24.6 (21st).

The Panthers' Bryce Young is having his strongest-ever season, leading the NFL in passing yards per game (309.8). He is 7th in the NFL in passing yards overall (1,549) and faces a Tampa Bay side that ranks 19th in opponent passing yards per game (224.0). This is a clear weakness that Young can exploit - go with the Panthers.

This is a battle between 2 sides with losing records - Dolphins 0-5 and Jets 2-4 - and some of the weakest offenses in the NFL.

The Dolphins have the joint-worst offense in the NFL with the Tennessee Titans, having scored just 14.0 PPG, while the Jets rank 27th with 18.7 PPG. Combined, this is 32.7, 6.8 below this line. 

The Dolphins have scored 13 points or fewer in 4/5 games this season, with 2/L3 Dolphins games having fewer than 39.5 points.

Meanwhile, 4/6 Jets games this season have had under 39.5 points.

Conversely, the Jets have the joint-5th-strongest scoring defense in the NFL alongside Cleveland and Seattle, having conceded an average of 20.3 OPP PPG. Miami ranks 24th on 26.4 OPP PPG - not great, but not the worst in the NFL either. 

The Jets rank 4th-best in passing defense this season with 185.0 yards allowed per game. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have the 2nd-worst passing offense with just 153.6 passing yards per game. The rush could be where Miami succeeds, but it's unlikely to be enough to boost their scoring significantly.

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Football

Monday's Daily Double 🇫🇷🇵🇹 @ 2.05

Andy Robson

Benfica have won three of their four away games this season

Benfica have been really impressive in the early tenure of Marco Silva, winning six of their opening eight games in Liga Portugal - winning three of their four away matches.

They take on a Santa Clara side who have done well to avoid defeat so far, but are notably yet to take on any of Porto, Sporting and Benfica - which is significant as those three sides are almost in a mini league of their own.

Benfica have won on each of their last four trips to Santa Clara, coming away 2-1 winners in the most recent meeting. Benfica limited Santa Clara to an xG of 0.28 on that occasion, and keeping pace with Benfica’s impressive scoring power is likely to be their main issue here.

No side has scored more goals in the Portuguese top flight than Benfica (24 - 3.0 per game), notably netting 15 goals across just four away assignments (3.75 per game). 

PSG made a sluggish start to the season domestically, but have since picked up - winning each of their last seven matches across all competitions.

They’ve seen 2+ goals in six of these matches as well, with the exception of a 1-0 win over Brest that produced a combined xG of 2.41.

Lyon rotated for their Europa League fixture during the week, losing 3-0 to Hoffenheim. They’ve only managed to win one of their last three trips to the Parc Des Princes, conceding 3+ goals in both defeats.

PSG have generated the highest xG of any side in the French top flight this term (19.0), and I think they have enough to outscore Lyon here - even if the away side can get on the scoresheet.

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