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This is clear value. You’re getting 2.0 (EVS) for a bet that’s as short as 1.50 at most major bookies.

Haaland has a goal or assist in seven of his last eight league games, and he’s scored the most goals (9), taken the most shots (34) and had the most shots on target (16) in the entire league.

He hit the target three times away to Leipzig midweek, scoring in their 3-2 win. Even against Brighton, despite not scoring, he still had four shots and contributed 0.55 xG+A.

He’s now up against a Forest side who’ve won just one game this season, sit 19th, and have really struggled. They’ve lost to newly promoted Coventry, drawn with newly promoted Ipswich, and were beaten 3-1 by a poor Palace side who are also in the relegation zone.

I’m all over it.

This tends to be a really entertaining fixture, the most recent meeting between the sides back in April produced seven goals as Bayern ran out 4-3 winners with both sides posting a healthy xG (2.69-2.21).

Each of the last 18 (!) head to head meetings between these sides has seen 3+ goals, stretching all the way back to 2018. You can’t use that alone to justify a bet, but it’s a very notable trend that is likely to continue here when looking at the records of both of these sides.

Bayern are seeing 4.38 goals per game in the Bundesliga this season, scoring most of those goals themselves. They’ve seen 3+ goals in 88% of their matches, also seeing BTTS in 75% of their games.

Mainz aren’t too far behind this total, they’re seeing 4.25 goals per game and have seen this selection land in three of their four home matches.

This has landed in all four of Hull’s away games in the Premier League so far this season:

4 cards v Coventry

5 cards v Chelsea

5 cards v Newcastle

2 cards v Fulham

No side has picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League than Hull (2.78 per game), only failing to pick up a card in one of their nine games - which was against a Brentford side who rank in the bottom half of the table for cards against.

Arsenal have drawn the joint most cards of any side in the Premier League, alongside Aston Villa and Chelsea (3.22 per game).

Mikel Arteta’s side have also drawn more fouls than any other side in the Premier League (15.78 per game), so this looks like the perfect matchup for the away side to pick up at least two cards.

Preston are in a real mess right now.

They’ve failed to win any of their six games since Graham Alexander took over, losing five of these games - most recently losing 3-2 to Sheffield United at home during the week.

They’ve only won one of their 14 matches overall in the Championship, losing five of their seven games at home.

It’s unlikely to get any easier here against a Southampton side who have only lost one of their last 12 matches.

We only need Tonda Eckert’s side to win one half here, which is something they’ve done in each of their last three games.

Southampton also beat a much better Preston side in this fixture last season, coming away 3-1 winners with an xG of 2.41.

The Eredivisie has been the best league for goals in Europe this season, every side is averaging 2.91 goals per game or more with both of these sides seeing 2+ goals in 91% of their 11 Eredivisie matches.

Sparta are really struggling defensively, conceding 2+ goals in each of their last 10 matches. They’ll see this as a winnable game though, against a Den Haag side who have struggled to adapt to the level as a newly promoted side from the Eerste Divisie.

Den Haag have only managed to win one of their five home matches in the Eredivisie this term. They’ve seen 20 goals across these games (4.0 per game), and have still managed to score eight goals despite only recording one victory.

Harder is on loan from Leipzig at Strasbourg and has the opportunity for a consistent run in a side for the first time since his spell at Sporting with Strasbourg's main striker option, Panichelli, being ruled out until the end of the year.

Harder is obviously very talented, he was chased by Premier League clubs after impressing at Sporting but opted for a move to Leipzig.

He's found his feet at Strasbourg, managing a shot on target in each of his last four games ahead of this clash.

He netted against Auxerre last time out from two shots, and should take that confidence into this fixture. Strasbourg simply can't rely on their defensive solidity here, they've failed to keep a clean sheet across their last 24 matches.

Toulouse have struggled too, especially in front of their own fans, winning just one of their opening four home games and conceding 13.78 shots per game.

Harder has had 11 shots across his four starts overall in Ligue 1 (2.70 per 90), and I only think we'll see him improve the longer he gets a consistent role in the side.

Gladbach have the worst defence in the Bundesliga, conceding 22 goals in eight games, and they've shipped at least two in all four away matches.

They also allow the most shots on target in the league at 7.8 per game, with an xGA of over 2 per match.

Hamburg's attack has picked up, scoring all seven of their goals in the last five games, including three against Hoffenheim and two against Koln, but they've conceded 19 in eight games themselves.

Gladbach have scored eight in their last five league games, averaging 14.5 shots per match, against a defence with just one clean sheet all season.

Strasbourg haven't kept a clean sheet in Ligue 1 this season, conceding 19 in nine games, and it's worse away from home at 13 in five games.

They also allow 5.7 shots on target per game, one of the highest rates in the league.

Toulouse have the fourth-highest xG in Ligue 1 at 1.88 per game and are top five for big chances created.

Strasbourg have scored 17 in nine league games, including a 5-1 win over Auxerre, and seven of their nine games have seen both teams score.

Sevilla have scored in all 11 La Liga games this season, but their defence has been shaky, conceding 19 goals and keeping just three clean sheets.

It's been worse lately, with 13 conceded in their last five games, including four against Real Madrid.

Alaves haven't been much better away, conceding 2.2 goals per game on average, including six at Barcelona last time out.

Both teams have scored in four of Alaves' last five away matches, and Sevilla are averaging 1.55 goals per game themselves.

This has landed in all four of Hull’s away games in the Premier League so far this season:

4 cards v Coventry

5 cards v Chelsea

5 cards v Newcastle

2 cards v Fulham

No side has picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League than Hull (2.78 per game), only failing to pick up a card in one of their nine games - which was against a Brentford side who rank in the bottom half of the table for cards against.

Arsenal have drawn the joint most cards of any side in the Premier League, alongside Aston Villa and Chelsea (3.22 per game).

Mikel Arteta’s side have also drawn more fouls than any other side in the Premier League (15.78 per game), so this looks like the perfect matchup for the away side to pick up at least two cards.

Charlton are dropping like a stone, 11 winless in the league and they’ll be fighting the crowd as well as the threat of relegation if they go behind early.

The hosts are the worst team in the league going forward, them and Derby have scored 11 from 14 games, while Charlton have the worst xG for (13.0).

They’re now without a clean sheet in seven as well, and this could well be Nathan Jones’ last game in charge.

Sheffield United have picked up of late, three wins in four and their 3-2 win at Preston on Tuesday evening was more comfortable than the scoreline suggests - with Sydie Peck netting a first half hat-trick from midfield.

They look value at odds-against quotes to win the game.

Poor old Preston are very opposable once again.

They’re nine points adrift of safety already, with five points from 14 games, and though this is a double home week for them compared to Southampton’s two away trips, there was nothing in their Tuesday night defeat to suggest they’ll make a better fist of it on Saturday.

PNE managed only six shots in their 3-2 defeat to Sheffield United, they only had one shot in the entirety of the first half and that shot actually gave them the lead after two minutes.

Saints have great squad depth to cope with the busy schedule and a win will likely have them on the brink of the automatic promotion places heading into the international break - which is really impressive considering they started the season with a four-point deduction.

This is an understandable short price given the gap in quality between the two sides.

Preston have conceded 14 goals in their last five, just under three per game, and Saints have the talent to expose that backline again at Deepdale.

Dundee United are one of the form teams in the Scottish Premiership, and I think they can get the three points when they host Motherwell on Saturday.

Jim Goodwin’s side extended their unbeaten run to six matches with a hard-fought 2-2 draw away at Celtic last midweek.

The Terrors have also beaten Hibernian and Aberdeen at home during that run, so they will fancy their chances of adding to their points tally against Motherwell.

The Steelmen had taken just one point from seven league games before beating St Mirren 1-0 last weekend.

Moreover, Alfred Johansson’s side have won only once away from home in the Scottish top-flight this term, and that came against bottom-of-the-table Hibernian on the opening weekend.

I think Livingston look well placed to score at least once away at Inverness on Saturday.

The Lions picked up their most impressive result of the season last Friday night, claiming a convincing 3-0 win away at Stenhousemuir.

That followed a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Arbroath, so Livi are beginning to build momentum after a stuttering start to life back in the Scottish Championship.

Moreover, they have now scored at least once in seven of their last eight league matches, including a 2-2 draw with Inverness in the reverse fixture.

Confidence could be low in the Caley Jags camp after a 5-1 hammering at Dunfermline last Saturday, and Livi can get on the scoresheet in the Highlands.

Partick Thistle can bounce back from last weekend’s setback by winning away at Queen’s Park in the Scottish Championship on Saturday.

Mark Wilson’s men were unbeaten in five league games, winning four and drawing one, before a shock 3-2 home defeat to Morton.

I suspect that will prove a blip, and that the league leaders can get their title charge back on track at the first attempt this weekend.

Thistle have won away at Livingston and Ayr in recent times, while their last road trip ended in a 1-1 draw with an in-form Dunfermline side.

Queen’s Park should pose less of a test, with the Spiders bottom of the table after losing seven of their last eight matches, including the last three.

It might not be pretty, but I think Partick’s superior class will tell and see them claim all three points at Lesser Hampden.

As I touched on in the lower odds bet builder, Dewsbury-Hall has really benefitted from having Harrison Armstrong and James Garner behind him this season.

It frees up the former Chelsea man to get more involved in the final third, and that has seen Dewsbury-Hall record three goal contributions across his nine starts for Everton - only Thierno Barry (4) has more.

That headline number might not jump off the page, but his underlying metrics are really impressive. He leads Everton for shots created (20 - 2.24 per 90), and also takes set pieces for the Toffees, which is always a viable route to goal for David Moyes' teams.

His shot numbers have also risen, with only Barry (again) taking more shots for Everton than Dewsbury-Hall this season (23 - 2.57 per 90).

Jack Rudoni is certainly capable of playing at this level, and no Coventry player has taken more shots than the midfielder this season (14 - 1.94 per 90).

He's seen six of these efforts find the target (0.83 per 90), which is also the most of any Coventry player. He's at his most effective when arriving late in the box, a trait that has been passed on from his manager who was better at that than any other player in Premier League history.

Rudoni has had at least one shot in all four of Coventry's away games this season, including clashes against Tottenham, Man City and Arsenal. He's found the target in three of those games as well, so he's not too phased by the quality of opponent at this level.

This midfield battle should be a really engaging one with Yirenkyi having to deal with Dewsbury-Hall, Armstrong and Garner.

Yirenkyi has committed six more fouls than any other Coventry player in the Premier League this season (18 - 2.89 per 90).

He's committed a foul in all four of his away matches for Coventry this season, committing multiple fouls in three of these games and even committing 3+ fouls on two occasions.

This is quite natural for a player that is new to the Premier League, you can see that he is just a second or so behind the pace of the division.

He already had a pretty good baseline for fouls, averaging 1.65 fouls committed per 90 in the season prior to joining Coventry - and the increased pace and physicality of the Premier League has seen this rise even more.

Armstrong has committed more fouls than any other Everton player in the Premier League this season (10 - 1.14 per 90).

I wouldn't get too obsessed with that average, it's not totally reflective of how aggressive Armstrong is in the middle of the park and he's got a nice matchup here against Coventry's two most fouled players this term.

Armstrong ranks in the 85th percentile or higher in the Premier League for fouls committed per 90, duels per 90 and tackles per 90.

These are famously difficult metrics to rank high in for midfielders, so it shows us that Armstrong is more willing than most to focus on the defensive side of his game.

Armstrong has committed at least one foul in all four of his home games, committing multiple fouls against Ipswich and Crystal Palace.

You won't see many more convincing runs of form this season than the run Rapid Wien are on at the moment.

They've won each of their last eight games, scoring at least twice in all of them and winning five to nil - including beating Wolfsberger 3-0 on the road back in September.

They overperformed on their underlying numbers in that game, but that's not the case when you look at their season on the whole.

Rapid Wien lead the Austrian Bundesliga for goals and clean sheets, as well as ranking in the top three for xG, shots on target and goals against.

Wolfsberger sit rock bottom of the Austrian Bundesliga, having won just one of their 11 matches domestically. They've only scored eight goals across these games, which is the main concern against the scoring power of Rapid Wien.

They've only scored twice across their five away matches, losing four of these games, and Rapid Wien should be able to replicate the victory they managed over Wolfsberger back in September quite easily.

Willem II are having a really tough time adapting to the level of the Eredivisie, having been promoted from the Eerste Divisie last season through the playoffs.

Willem II have failed to win any of their opening 11 matches in the Eredivisie, losing nine of these games.

Unsurprisingly, this record leaves them rock bottom of the table - and they've conceded more goals than anyone else (39 - 3.54 per game).

They conceded seven goals against PSV last time out, showing how they can crumble and potentially opening the door for Zwolle to cover this line on their own.

However, these are the types of games that the home side simply have to start winning if they are to stay up. Zwolle have only won three of their 11 games in the Eredivisie, conceding 23 goals in the process (2.09 per game).

Willem II have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches, notably managing to score in four of them. Willem II have also failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their games, while Zwolle have only managed to keep out two sides.

Coventry fans have had to be really patient to see Yann Gboho in the Premier League, who was signed from Toulouse over the summer after an impressive season in Ligue 1 - registering 11 goal contributions and averaging 1.98 shots per 90.

I'm not surprised that Gboho has had to wait for his opportunity. It's always difficult for players from foreign leagues to adapt in their first season in the Premier League, and Lampard was probably protecting Gboho while he got up to speed with the level.

He made his first start in the Premier League against Sunderland last time out, and was impressive - managing two shots in that game, with one finding the target.

I always like looking at players who have a point to prove for shots. We only need him to take aim once here, which is something he managed in 81% of his matches in Ligue 1 last season.

James Garner and Harrison Armstrong have been getting through quite a lot of work in the middle of the park, with their more defensive roles allowing the likes of Dewsbury-Hall, George and Barry to be more effective at the other end.

Dewsbury-Hall in particular is benefitting from having those two behind him, it frees him up to get more involved in the final third - which is where he's at his best. Armstrong (10) and Garner (9) have committed more fouls than any other Everton players this season, with Garner averaging 1.17 fouls committed per 90.

Garner has committed a foul in each of his last three Premier League matches, committing three in Everton's last home game against Chelsea.

He'll be up against Jack Rudoni (11 fouls won) and Caleb Yirenkyi (9 fouls won) who also happen to be the most fouled players in the Coventry squad this season. Rudoni could be his main battle here, he's been fouled at least once in three of Coventry's four away matches this season.

I'm so pleased to see Thierno Barry doing well.

He did so much right last season, without consistently finding the finishing touch and was judged quite harshly for it - but he's improving on that part of his game and has four goals across his nine starts in the Premier League.

I've backed him for a shot on target at appealing prices in recent weeks, even getting 1.72 when Everton travelled to Newcastle, but that price is no longer as appealing (1.20), so I'm looking at Barry in a slightly different capacity here.

Barry has won 14 fouls across his nine starts in the Premier League. Only two Everton players have won more than Barry this season, with many Premier League centre backs struggling with his unique, but awkward, frame.

Barry has been fouled in three of Everton's four home games this season, winning multiple fouls in two of these games. He's been fouled in eight of his nine Premier League appearances overall, showing a real consistency to his game with this metric.

Only three sides in the Premier League are seeing more match corners per game than Everton (10.67).

They've seen 9+ corners in 67% of their matches in the Premier League, and also notably are conceding 5.78 corners per game - only Hull and Crystal Palace are conceding more corners in the top flight at the moment.

Coventry's numbers don't stand out as much, averaging 8.56 match corners per game. However, Everton's notable corner record should see that rise here - David Moyes' side saw at least nine match corners in both recent matches with Newcastle.

This should be a really exciting FA Cup tie between two sides who are in good form, but not very strong at keeping clean sheets.

Barnet have failed to keep a clean sheet across their last six matches, seeing BTTS in all of these games. Four of these games have ended with BTTS & No Draw, including their most recent home game against York City.

Barnet sit second in League Two after 13 matches, but have not kept a single clean sheet - signalling that they are a side that is more than comfortable in trusting their scoring power.

Tranmere have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, with two of these games seeing BTTS & No Draw - including a 3-1 win over Cheltenham last time out.

Only two of Barnet’s seven home games in the league have finished level, I’d trust Tranmere to get on the scoresheet here but Barnet to eventually pull away - which has been a trend in their games this season.

Jong Utrecht sit rock bottom of the Eerste Divisie, which isn’t an uncommon fate for the youth sides of established Eredivisie clubs.

They tend to use it as a development pathway for their younger players, rather than focusing on properly competing in the league.

Remarkably, only one of Jong Utrecht’s 13 matches in the Eerste Divisie has finished level - they’ve seen BTTS & No Draw in each of their last seven matches.

Den Bosch have seen three of their seven home matches finish level, but will fancy their chances of getting all three points against the weakest and most open side in the division.

Their home matches have produced 26 goals (3.71 per game), with Den Bosch seeing BTTS in all seven of these matches.

These are two of the weakest sides defensively in the Eredivisie.

Den Haag have struggled with the step up to the Eredivisie from the Eerste Divisie, and sit second from bottom in the Dutch top flight having conceded 24 goals across their 11 matches (2.18 per game).

They’ve lost three of their five games, with those matches producing 20 goals (4.0 per game), setting up the home side nicely to be involved in a high scoring affair.

Sparta’s backline is also incredibly vulnerable, they’ve conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 10 matches and have seen BTTS & No Draw in half of these games.

Only one of Den Haag’s five home games has finished level, and only three of their wider 11 matches have ended with the points shared.

Liam Rosenior is doing an excellent job at Paris FC, and you have to respect his courage to come back into a role so soon after his embarrassing stint at Chelsea - which was far from a reflection of his coaching ability.

Paris FC sit fourth in Ligue 1, just three points adrift of the pace setters in PSG. Their games are mental, they’ve seen BTTS & No Draw in each of their last three matches. They’ve won two of these games as well, winning 3-1 against Monaco last time out and edging out a 4-3 thriller against Rennes.

Sandwiched between those wins was a 2-1 defeat to Lens, with Paris struggling a little on the road despite their positive start to the campaign. They’ve only won one of their four away matches, with these games producing nine goals (2.25 per game).

Auxerre may have only won three of their nine games in Ligue 1 this term, but they’ve scored 13 goals in the process. They’ve scored in each of their last five matches, with four of these games ending in BTTS & No Draw.

I’ve backed this angle twice already this season and it’s won on both occasions - with Kudus winning four fouls against Crystal Palace last time out.

It’s such an attractive price for a player who has won more fouls than any other Tottenham player this season (14 - 2.77 per 90), also attempting 7.12 dribbles per 90 and 4.15 dribbles past opponents per 90 - which are great supporting stats when backing a player to win fouls.

I think this price is leaning a bit on Kudus’ foul won record last season, which is a real anomaly if you look at his career as a whole:

26/27 - 2.77 fouls won p/90

25/26 - 0.87 fouls won p/90

24/25 - 2.21 fouls won p/90

23/24 - 2.72 fouls won p/90

22/23 - 2.12 fouls won p/90

Kudus struggled with injuries last season and lacked confidence in the duels he contests more regularly, explaining that anomaly. I don’t think we’ll keep getting this price, he’s been fouled in each of his last seven matches - winning multiple fouls in four of these games.

Leeds are averaging 13.11 fouls committed per game in the Premier League this term, with this tally rising to 15.00 fouls per game across their last five matches.

Moffi comes into this one in great form, with three goals in his last five games for Hamburg, including two in his last two appearances, both against Frankfurt.

He's averaging 2 shots and 1.16 shots on target per 90 minutes, putting over 50% of his shots on target.

Gladbach's defence also makes this a good chance for him. They've conceded 22 goals in eight games, the worst record in the Bundesliga, and are allowing almost eight shots on target per match.

Moffi now faces a Gladbach side sitting bottom of the Bundesliga, having conceded at least twice in every away game this season.

Fulham are better than the table suggests, they have the 7th highest xG in the league and expected points has them 11th, rather than 15th.

They’ve actually lost just one of their last six and have won two of their last three.

Newcastle are dreadful right now. It took them 85 minutes to have a shot on target against Everton on Monday and they should be four places lower in the table based on expected points.

Charlton are on a run of 11 matches without a victory. They’ve lost four in a row, failing to score in three.

They have the lowest xG in the entire league and the highest xGA.

Sheff Utd have found a good run of form and are unbeaten in four, winning three and they’ve won each of their last two away matches.

They scored three away in midweek and come into this one full of confidence.

Boreham Wood are favourites here despite being two divisions below their opponents.

They’ve scored 44 times in 16 league games.

They do concede goals too and BTTS has landed in 75% of their National League matches.

Wigan do ultimately have a stronger squad and should be able to capitalise on Boreham Wood’s defensive frailties.

The Latics have scored in five of their last seven, and should’ve scored from the 1.58 xG they created against Mansfield.

Carlisle have won four on the spin, scoring 11. The defence is still suspect though, conceding in three of those.

Carlisle create the most chances in the National League with a 1.83 xGA but they’ve managed just 3 clean sheets in 17 across all comps.

Salford have won seven League Two games on the spin with BTTS landing in each of their last four and they’re averaging 1.53 xGA on the road in League Two.

Dundee United are one of the form teams in the Scottish Premiership, and I think they can at the very least avoid defeat when they host Motherwell on Saturday.

Jim Goodwin’s side extended their unbeaten run to six matches with a hard-fought 2-2 draw away at Celtic last midweek.

The Terrors have also beaten Hibernian and Aberdeen at home during that run, so they will fancy their chances of adding to their points tally against Motherwell.

The Steelmen had taken just one point from seven league games before beating St Mirren 1-0 last weekend.

Moreover, Alfred Johansson’s side have won only once away from home in the Scottish top flight this term, and that came against bottom-of-the-table Hibernian on the opening weekend.

I think Livingston look well placed to score at least once away at Inverness on Saturday.

The Lions picked up their most impressive result of the season last Friday night, claiming a convincing 3-0 win away at Stenhousemuir.

That followed a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Arbroath, so Livi are beginning to build momentum after a stuttering start to life back in the Scottish Championship.

Moreover, they have now scored at least once in seven of their last eight league matches, including a 2-2 draw with Inverness in the reverse fixture.

Confidence could be low in the Caley Jags camp after a 5-1 hammering at Dunfermline last Saturday, and Livi can get on the scoresheet in the Highlands.

Partick Thistle can bounce back from last weekend’s setback by winning away at Queen’s Park in the Scottish Championship on Saturday.

Mark Wilson’s men were unbeaten in five league games, winning four and drawing one, before a shock 3-2 home defeat to Morton.

I suspect that will prove a blip, and that the league leaders can get their title charge back on track at the first attempt this weekend.

Thistle have won away at Livingston and Ayr in recent times, while their last road trip ended in a 1-1 draw with an in-form Dunfermline side.

Queen’s Park should pose less of a test, with the Spiders bottom of the table after losing seven of their last eight matches, including the last three.

It might not be pretty, but I think Partick’s superior class will tell and see them claim all three points at Lesser Hampden.

I think Hamilton can return to winning ways in Scottish League One by defeating Cove Rangers on Saturday.

Darian McKinnon’s side have played out a pair of 1-1 draws in their last two league games against Ross County and Montrose, who sit first and third in the table respectively.

Before those stalemates, the Accies were enjoying a seven-game winning run in the league, which included victories away at Alloa, East Kilbride and Airdrie.

While Cove Rangers picked up a morale-boosting 1-0 win away at Airdrie last weekend, they remain bottom of the table and have lost seven of their 12 league games this season.

It’s also worth pointing out that Paul Hartley’s side were trailing East Kilbride in their last league game at home before it was abandoned due to severe weather conditions.

Hamilton edged the reverse fixture 1-0, and I fancy them to come out on top in another low-scoring game on Saturday.

Ross County have been really strong at home in Scottish League One this season, and I think they can put Peterhead to the sword while scoring at least a couple of goals in the process.

The Staggies have won 11 of their 13 league games this season, including five of their six matches at home.

Their only dropped points in Dingwall came in a 1-1 draw with title rivals Hamilton.

Stuart Kettlewell’s side have collected maximum points from their other five home games, scoring multiple goals in each.

As for Peterhead, they tend to do the majority of their best work at home, underlined by the fact that they have lost four of their last five away matches.

What’s more, the Blue Toon have conceded at least two goals in all four of those road defeats, and I think they will suffer the same fate on Saturday.

Leicester haven’t earned the right to take this game lightly.

This bet wins if they win by three or more goals.

They’re still three points off the play-offs and seven back from automatic promotion - which would’ve been the aim pre-season.

They, and Russell Martin, have a lot to lose heading into this game, it’s only just over five years since they won the whole competition, and now they’re at Oxford City in the first round.

There’s 64 places between these two in the pyramid - 10th in League One to 2nd in National League North - yet the bookies are pricing it up like they’re of a similar level.

Last Saturday, Middlesbrough went off 1.15 to beat Charlton and Stockport went off 1.25 to beat AFC Wimbledon.

Arsenal went off 1.18 to beat Coventry earlier in the season.

This weekend Leicester are 1.33 to win at Oxford City, over double the odds of Boro last weekend to beat Charlton, and Leicester aren’t in a position to rest and rotate, they need to play a strong team to ensure they avoid embarrassment.

A reason for this price is that they’re playing away from home (it’s a relatively short journey of under two hours), and Oxford City play on an artificial pitch.

While Oxford City’s experience on this surface helps, I don’t think it’ll concern Leicester as much as it would other sides.

Russell Martin likes to keep the ball on the ground and the consistent surface will aid that, and lots of their players have recently made the step up from youth football where these surfaces are more commonly used.

Will Alves, 21, Louis Page, 18, Sammy Braybrooke, 22, and Kamari Doyle, 21, all started their 2-2 draw with Stevenage last weekend.

Leicester need to build confidence and faith in this project, and playing against a side who’ve already lost to Buxton, Telford and South Shields this season should help them in doing that.

A ladder bet appeals on this game, splitting, not increasing, the stake across the -1 @ 1.95, -2 @ 3.30, -3 @ 6.50 and -4 @ 13.0 is an option to capitalise if Leicester do run away with it.

Leicester have scored twice or more in four of five in League One; they're capable of doing so again and building on that against this level of opposition.

This has landed in all four of Hull’s away games in the Premier League so far this season:

4 cards v Coventry

5 cards v Chelsea

5 cards v Newcastle

2 cards v Fulham

No side has picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League than Hull (2.78 per game), only failing to pick up a card in one of their nine games - which was against a Brentford side who rank in the bottom half of the table for cards against.

Arsenal have drawn the joint most cards of any side in the Premier League, alongside Aston Villa and Chelsea (3.22 per game).

Mikel Arteta’s side have also drawn more fouls than any other side in the Premier League (15.78 per game), so this looks like the perfect matchup for the away side to pick up at least two cards.

Preston are in a real mess right now.

They’ve failed to win any of their six games since Graham Alexander took over, losing five of these games - most recently losing 3-2 to Sheffield United at home during the week.

They’ve only won one of their 14 matches overall in the Championship, losing five of their seven games at home.

It’s unlikely to get any easier here against a Southampton side who have only lost one of their last 12 matches.

We only need Tonda Eckert’s side to win one half here, which is something they’ve done in each of their last three games.

Southampton also beat a much better Preston side in this fixture last season, coming away 3-1 winners with an xG of 2.41.

Juan Jesus has been picking up cards regularly since joining Venezia, with three yellows in seven Serie A games, including one in his last match against Como.

The defender is averaging 1.28 fouls per 90 minutes and has been booked in three of his six starts.

He also picked up eight yellows and one red in 24 Serie A games for Napoli last season.

Venezia have been picking up plenty of cards this season, averaging 2.2 per game, one of the highest numbers in the league.

Juan Jesus will also have to deal with players like Zaniolo, who's been fouled 11 times in six appearances this season, including at least twice in four of those games.

Zaniolo has already got an opponent booked this season, with Simone Lontani receiving a yellow for fouling him against Parma in late October.

Lucien Agoume has committed the third-most fouls in La Liga this season, with 22 in 11 games, averaging two per match.

The midfielder has also picked up three yellow cards and was booked in his last game against Getafe, where he gave away three fouls.

Sevilla have been giving away plenty of fouls, with the second-highest total in the league at 161 in 11 games, along with 28 yellow cards.

Agoume could find himself up against Pablo Ibanez, who's been fouled 23 times in 11 games, averaging 2.09 per match. He's been fouled at least once in ten of those games.

Denis Suarez is another one to watch in midfield, having been fouled at least once in each of his last four starts and averaging 1.70 fouls won per 90 minutes.

This is as much about Derby being terrible as it is about Bolton being good. The situation at The Rams is horrendous. The fans have lost all hope and any faith in John Eustace is long gone.

He’s still in a job at the time of writing this and I have no idea how. Derby are second-bottom, they have one win all season and have conceded four in each of their last two, including a 4-0 home drubbing from Norwich which saw Pride Park empty before half-time.

Bolton’s recent away results have been very impressive. They’ve won away at Norwich, Wolves and Charlton as well as picking up a point at Southampton.

I expect more misery for the home fans and this’ll be the nail in Eustace’s coffin.

Sheehan is all action in the heart of the Bolton midfield and we’re looking at him for shots here.

He has had the most shots in the squad with 26, an average of 1.88 per 90 minutes in the Championship this season.

Sheehan has landed this selection in seven of his Championship matches this season. He’s also landed it in two of his last three away games and he’s also been on the scoresheet lately, finding the net in two of his last five.

Derby have averaged 15.8 shots against in the league this season and have conceded 19, 22 and 25 shots in their last three outings.

Sheehan leads Bolton in a number of metrics, along with shots, he has also committed the most fouls in the squad with 18 this season - which works out to an average of 1.30 per 90 minutes.

Sheehan has committed at least one foul in each of his last five matches.

Mowatt and Fraulo are expected to line up against Sheehan in the heart of midfield and they draw 1.11 and 1.22 fouls per 90 minutes, respectively.

Derby as a team draw 12.50 fouls per 90 too which is actually quite high.

Both sides have seen plenty of corners in their matches this season. Derby’s games have averaged 10.79, which rises to 11.58 when playing at home and the lowest corner count in a match at Pride Park in the league this season is nine, so above the line we’re actually needing here.

Bolton matches have averaged 10.93 corners. That does reduce on their travels, but it’s still comfortably above what we need at 9.57 with 71% of their away matches seeing this selection land and 79% of their Championship games overall paying out on this pick.

Jayden Bogle didn’t manage to get a shot off against Bournemouth last weekend, breaking a six-game streak. The Leeds wingback likes to get forward and join in with attacks, so he is averaging 1.09 shots per 90 across all competitions this season. He has even managed to find the back of the net once, against Brighton back in September.

Spurs are a team in good form at the moment, but Elland Road is one of the tougher away days in the Premier League. Daniel Farke’s men are unbeaten in four league matches at home this season, and Bogle has accounted for five shots in that time.

Kai Havertz scored the only goal of the game last weekend, as Arsenal secured a huge three points at Anfield. The German international was in the right place at the right time to convert a cross from Declan Rice early in the first half.

Havertz is averaging 2.01 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season, which is nothing to write home about, but over half of his efforts have hit the target. That shows how the majority of his chances tend to be of a high-quality nature, and the Gunners should be able to generate some clear-cut opportunities against this Hull side who are in a poor run of form.

After a poor start under Alvaro Arbeloa, Fulham have picked up seven points in their last three league matches, which has lifted them out of the bottom three. Alex Iwobi has been a key reason for that, as he scored Fulham’s only goal against Hull to kick-start their unbeaten streak. Iwobi had three shots against Aston Villa last time out, with one of those on target, and he was guilty of missing a couple of great chances.

Iwobi is averaging 1.9 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, rising to 2.22 when playing at Craven Cottage, where he has landed this bet in each of his last three matches.

After completing a £20 million move from Man City to Nottingham Forest in 2025, James McAtee will face his former club for the first time this season. The 24-year-old has emerged as a regular starter under Oliver Glasner this season, and he will be determined to make an impact against his former team.

McAtee is averaging 1.86 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has landed this selection in five of his last seven starts. That includes two shots against Arsenal at the City Ground a few weeks ago. Both of those efforts came from outside the box.

Tottenham cruised to victory last weekend against Crystal Palace, as the visitors were reduced to ten men early on. Jan Paul Van Hecke had very little defending to do, and he didn't record a foul. However, the centre back is averaging 1.13 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, and he landed this bet in seven successive starts prior to last weekend.

Van Hecke should be called into action a lot more at Elland Road here, and he will be primarily up against Dominic Calvert-Lewin. The Leeds striker was fouled three times against Bournemouth last time out, proving a difficult player to contain for opposing centre backs.

Ezri Konsa is averaging 1.97 fouls drawn per 90 in the league this season - not only is that one of the highest figures in the Arsenal squad, but it's also one of the highest of any Premier League player this season. The centre back is adept at drawing contact, and he has landed this selection in six of his seven league starts overall.

Konsa has an excellent matchup this weekend to improve that hit-rate, as he will be directly up against Oli McBurnie. The Scottish striker is averaging 1.35 fouls per 90 this season, and he will look to make life hard for those Arsenal centre backs at the Emirates.

Newcastle have the worst disciplinary record in the Premier League after nine matches, with 26 yellow cards and two reds. The Magpies come into this clash following back-to-back defeats, so they will be desperate to bounce back at Craven Cottage here. Their midfielders have been notable contributors to their card record so far - Nico Gonzalez is averaging 2.81 fouls per 90 across all competitions, and he should occupy the same zone of the field as Josh King this weekend.

The 19-year-old has been pulling the strings from an advanced midfield position, averaging 1.59 fouls drawn per 90. He has landed this bet in four of his last six starts.

Elliot Anderson is almost always a target for opposition sides to bring down due to how good he is at splitting lines with his passing range, and that should be even more exaggerated here as he lines up against his former club.

Anderson has won more fouls than any other player on the pitch here (28 - 3.61 per 90). He’s out on his own in that regard too, James McAtee is the second most fouled player set to line up at the City Ground and he has won 13 fewer fouls than Anderson in the Premier League this season.

This has landed in each of Anderson’s last five Premier League matches, and he was also fouled twice in the Champions League during the week against Leipzig.

He’s been fouled in all four of City’s away matches, winning 3+ fouls in three of these games - even being fouled 8 (!) times against Liverpool a few weeks ago.

Dundee United are one of the form teams in the Scottish Premiership, and I think they can at the very least avoid defeat when they host Motherwell on Saturday.

Jim Goodwin’s side extended their unbeaten run to six matches with a hard-fought 2-2 draw away at Celtic last midweek.

The Terrors have also beaten Hibernian and Aberdeen at home during that run, so they will fancy their chances of adding to their points tally against Motherwell.

The Steelmen had taken just one point from seven league games before beating St Mirren 1-0 last weekend.

Moreover, Alfred Johansson’s side have won only once away from home in the Scottish top flight this term, and that came against bottom-of-the-table Hibernian on the opening weekend.

I think Hamilton can return to winning ways in Scottish League One by defeating Cove Rangers on Saturday.

Darian McKinnon’s side have played out a pair of 1-1 draws in their last two league games against Ross County and Montrose, who sit first and third in the table respectively.

Before those stalemates, the Accies were enjoying a seven-game winning run in the league, which included victories away at Alloa, East Kilbride and Airdrie.

While Cove Rangers picked up a morale-boosting 1-0 win away at Airdrie last weekend, they remain bottom of the table and have lost seven of their 12 league games this season.

It’s also worth pointing out that Paul Hartley’s side were trailing East Kilbride in their last league game at home before it was abandoned due to severe weather conditions.

Hamilton edged the reverse fixture 1-0, and I fancy them to come out on top in another low-scoring game on Saturday.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been a reliable source of shots on target for Leeds this season, and this leg backs him to find one again against Tottenham.

He faces a Spurs defence that has been breached regularly in recent weeks, and Calvert-Lewin remains Leeds' focal point in attack.

Mohammed Kudus draws plenty of fouls for Tottenham and has won more fouls than any other Spurs player this season.

Leeds have been undisciplined in recent games, and Kudus' direct running should see him fouled again here.

Mateus Fernandes has been getting forward regularly for Tottenham and has been a consistent shot-taker from midfield this season.

Leeds have shown they can be opened up through the middle, which should give Fernandes the platform to get an effort away.

Both sides have been involved in corner-heavy games this season, and this fixture looks set to follow that pattern.

With Tottenham likely to see plenty of the ball and Leeds committed going forward, 8.5 corners should be beaten comfortably.

This has landed in all four of Hull’s away games in the Premier League so far this season:

4 cards v Coventry

5 cards v Chelsea

5 cards v Newcastle

2 cards v Fulham

No side has picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League than Hull (2.78 per game), only failing to pick up a card in one of their nine games - which was against a Brentford side who rank in the bottom half of the table for cards against.

Arsenal have drawn the joint most cards of any side in the Premier League, alongside Aston Villa and Chelsea (3.22 per game).

Mikel Arteta’s side have also drawn more fouls than any other side in the Premier League (15.78 per game), so this looks like the perfect matchup for the away side to pick up at least two cards.

Arsenal are averaging 5.4 corners per game in the Premier League this season, with that figure rising steeply to 6.8 when playing at home. They are one of the best teams in the league at dominating possession and sustaining pressure on their opponents, and Hull don’t quite have the personnel to break that press consistently.

The Tigers have been no stranger to a low block this season, and they are averaging just 37% possession in the league. Because of that, Hull have conceded an average of 6.1 corners per game. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see that figure rise even more after the weekend.

Martin Odegaard has started this season in excellent form, and he has emerged as a crucial player for the Gunners in the final third, as they will be missing some regular starters this weekend. Bukayo Saka is the most notable absentee, while Eberechi Eze is doubtful to feature.

Odegaard failed to register a shot against Liverpool at Anfield last time out, but this matchup should be considerably easier, and Odegaard typically has more success going forward at the Emirates Stadium. In fact, the Norwegian international is averaging 2.85 shots per 90 at home this season, compared to just 0.98 shots per 90 away, and he has landed this selection in all five home starts.

Oli McBurnie looks set to lead the line for Hull this weekend, and he is going to be incredibly isolated at times. However, this is the kind of matchup which the Scottish international seems to really look forward to. McBurnie is an incredibly physical centre forward - he likes using his body and getting up to contest aerial duels, which means Hull often look to play to him at every available opportunity.

McBurnie is averaging 1.8 fouls drawn per 90 in the Premier League, and he has landed this selection in all nine starts. That includes three fouls drawn against Chelsea, and two against Man United.

Gabriel Magalhaes will be primarily tasked with trying to contain the Hull striker, and that is a matchup to keep an eye on. The Brazilian centre back isn’t one to shy away from a physical contest, and he is averaging 0.78 fouls per 90 in the league this season. While that figure is nothing to write home about, Gabriel has recorded a foul in six of his nine starts. He failed to land this bet against Liverpool and Chelsea.

Interestingly, Gabriel seems to land this selection in matchups where Arsenal will dominate possession - he is given more freedom in those games to be aggressive and step out of the back line to win the ball back quickly.

I suspect it may not be pretty, but Rangers should have enough to get the job done and win away at St Mirren on Saturday night.

Derek McInnes’s men come into this clash in fairly good nick, having avoided defeat in their last nine Scottish Premiership matches, claiming top honours in seven of them.

The Gers also booked their place in the Scottish League Cup final with a 1-0 win over Aberdeen at Hampden last weekend.

Notably, Rangers have already beaten St Mirren twice this season, following up a 5-1 victory in the early rounds of the League Cup with a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture.

The Saints made a strong start to the season, but their form has since dipped, losing six of their last eight league matches, the most recent of which was a 1-0 loss away at Motherwell last Saturday.

Craig McLeish’s men have already lost 2-1 at home to Celtic this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rangers win by the same scoreline in Paisley.

Rangers are still a work in progress, but Derek McInnes has already brought a bit more steel to the side.

I expect them to get stuck in against St Mirren on Saturday night, so I’m backing the Light Blues to pick up two or more cards.

Moreover, Rangers have collected an average of 1.82 cards per game in the Scottish Premiership this season.

Upon closer inspection, it can be seen that the Glasgow heavyweights have racked up multiple bookings in five of their six top-flight fixtures away from Ibrox this term.

I think there’s plenty of scope for that trend to continue against a St Mirren team who have been among the Scottish Premiership’s most ill-disciplined this season and will look to drag Rangers into a battle.

It’s also worth pointing out that five of the Saints’ last six top-flight opponents have been shown 2 or more cards.

Adding weight to the case is the fact that Rangers picked up 2 cards to St Mirren’s 1 when the pair met at Ibrox in the Scottish League Cup earlier this season.

Kevin Kelsy has settled in at Rangers in no time and has quickly established himself as a key player, which is why I’m keen to back him for a goal or assist.

The powerful Venezuelan forward has scored 4 goals across his first seven Scottish Premiership appearances, with 3 of those coming in his last two outings.

What’s more, he scored one and set up another during Rangers’ 3-0 win over Celtic in the Scottish League Cup back in September.

Kelsy looks the sort of striker who only needs one chance, and he’ll fancy his chances of scoring against a St Mirren side that have been far from watertight this season.

The Saints have kept just 1 clean sheet in six home league games this season and have shipped 2 or more goals in three of their last five on their own patch.

I think James Penrice continues to be overpriced in the shots market, which is why I’m backing the Rangers utility man to have at least one attempt on Saturday night.

Since joining Rangers on loan, Penrice has mainly operated at left-back, where his attack-minded approach has been clear to see.

That is reflected in his average of 1.20 shots per game in the Scottish Premiership this season.

Digging deeper, he has had at least 1 shot in seven of his nine league appearances this term, firing off multiple efforts in three of his last five outings.

Penrice also got 1 shot away against St Mirren in this season’s reverse fixture at Ibrox.

The hosts are conceding just under 15 shots per game and are likely to spend long spells on the back foot, so Penrice should get chances to let fly.

He has also featured in midfield recently and has been known to take set pieces from shooting range.

Torino have kept just one clean sheet in Serie A this season, conceding 16 goals in their opening ten games.

Things look even worse at home. They’ve conceded in all five games, letting in two goals per match on average. Four of those games have seen both teams score.

They’re also giving up 16 shots per game and now face a Lecce side averaging 1.7 xG away from home.

The good news for Torino is that Lecce haven’t exactly been solid at the back either. They’ve conceded 21 goals in ten games, including 11 in their last five.

Lecce are giving up six shots on target per game, which could be good news for Ché Adams. He’s Torino’s top scorer, with four goals in eight appearances.

Despite all their problems at the back, Lecce have scored in four of their last five games, including their last two against Frosinone and Genoa.

Stuttgart have looked pretty shaky at the back, giving up more than 18 shots a game and conceding in all three of their Bundesliga home matches.

That includes a 3-2 defeat to Borussia Mönchengladbach, who are bottom of the table.

Werder Bremen, meanwhile, are flying. They’ve scored 17 goals in eight games and found the net in every league match so far.

Their games have been pretty entertaining too, with both teams scoring in seven of their eight matches, including all four away games.

The catch is that they’re much weaker at the back away from home, conceding 2.25 goals per game and averaging 2.18 xGA.

Ermedin Demirović is expected to start for Stuttgart and has been their main man up front, with five Bundesliga goals, including four in his last two games.

On the other side, there’s Niclas Füllkrug, who’s been on fire. He’s the league’s top scorer with nine goals and has scored in each of his last seven matches.

Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam have been among the worst defences in the Eredivisie, and neither side has kept a single clean sheet this season.

Den Haag have had an especially tough time at home, conceding 12 goals in five games. But they’ve also scored in every one of them.

Sparta haven’t quite found the right balance either. They’re averaging a decent 1.83 xG per game but are also giving up around 17 shots per match.

Milan Zonneveld has been their main threat up front, scoring seven goals in 11 games and finding the net in each of his last four away appearances.

At least Den Haag have been pretty reliable in front of goal at home, scoring twice in their last two games, including the win over PSV.

The good news for the hosts is that Sparta have been leaking goals too, conceding 13 in their last five games.

Even in their recent 3-2 win over Groningen, they allowed 20 shots, ten of them on target.

Auxerre have had a nightmare at the back, conceding 23 goals in their opening nine Ligue 1 games. That’s 2.56 per match, the worst record in the league.

They’re also giving up almost six shots on target per game, which isn’t ideal against a Paris FC side averaging 1.79 xG.

Lassine Sinayoko has been involved in just about everything for Paris FC. He’s the league’s top scorer with eight goals, has five assists and has had a hand in 13 of their 16 goals.

For all their problems at the back, Auxerre have scored in every game this season.

Both teams have found the net in eight of their nine matches, including the last five.

Cameron Archer is in great form too, with six goals in just seven appearances. He’s scored in all three games he’s started at home.

Roma have been scoring for fun this season, with a league-high 28 goals in ten Serie A games and averaging 2.8 goals per match at home.

Sassuolo, meanwhile, have the worst defence in the league and are still waiting for their first clean sheet of the season.

The visitors are also giving up 6.6 shots on target per game, more than anyone else in Serie A.

Even with their defensive problems, Sassuolo have scored in nine of their ten league games, with both teams scoring in 90% of them.

They’re averaging 1.63 xG away from home and now face a Roma side who’ve conceded seven goals in their last three league games, plus another three in a recent Champions League defeat to Manchester United.

Sassuolo have lost four on the bounce, but they’ve still scored six goals in those games, including two against Lazio and another two against Fiorentina.

Go Ahead Eagles haven’t kept a single clean sheet this season, with both teams scoring in ten of their 11 games.

It’s been even worse away from home, where they’ve conceded 19 goals in six matches, an average of 3.17 per game.

At least Søren Tengstedt has been doing his bit up front. He’s the joint-top scorer in the Eredivisie with eight goals and has already had 16 shots on target.

Excelsior haven’t been much better at the back, conceding in all five of their home games, including that 9-0 hammering by Twente last time out.

They’ve still managed to score in four of those games, though, including against PSV, Utrecht and Groningen.

They haven’t scored in their last three games, but they’re now up against a side that still hasn’t kept a clean sheet and is averaging 2.21 xGA away from home.

If you look at City’s shot numbers over the last few seasons, you realise just how reliant they are on Erling Haaland as a goal threat.

He’s had 16 shots on target in the Premier League this season (1.80 per 90), which accounts for 32% of the total shots on target that City have managed in the top flight and is at least 10 more than any other City player.

It’s almost a lottery trying to pick out another City player for a shot on target, or even a goal contribution, as outside of Haaland there isn’t really a consistent figure.

This bet is always live with Haaland, he can be really quiet in games and then quickly have two great chances and has had a shot on target in all four of his away games this season - managing multiple shots on target in two of these games.

The data says that Forest have been unlucky, but watching Oliver Glasner’s icy press conference last week would suggest that there are deeper issues behind the scenes. They’ve failed to win any of their last five matches, losing four of them.

Elliot Anderson is almost always a target for opposition sides to bring down due to how good he is at splitting lines with his passing range, and that should be even more exaggerated here as he lines up against his former club.

Anderson has won more fouls than any other player on the pitch here (28 - 3.61 per 90). He’s out on his own in that regard too, James McAtee is the second most fouled player set to line up at the City Ground and he has won 13 fewer fouls than Anderson in the Premier League this season.

This has landed in each of Anderson’s last five Premier League matches, and he was also fouled twice in the Champions League during the week against Leipzig.

He’s been fouled in all four of City’s away matches, winning 3+ fouls in three of these games - even being fouled 8 (!) times against Liverpool a few weeks ago.

Jair Cunha didn’t really feature much for Forest last season, but has earned a more consistent role in the side under Oliver Glasner as the right sided centre back in his 3-4-3 shape.

Cunha has committed eight fouls across his seven starts in the Premier League this term (1.15 per 90), which isn’t one of the standout figures in the Forest squad but a quick glance at his heat map would suggest that he will be in a lot of duels with Jeremy Doku here.

Alongside Anderson, Doku is one of the best players in the Premier League when it comes to dribbles and winning fouls.

He’s only started three games in the Premier League and has won 13 fouls (3.82 per 90), also maintaining an average of 3.08 fouls won per 90 across 19 starts in the top flight last season.

Oliver Glasner’s spell at Nottm Forest hasn’t quite gone to plan so far, but there aren’t many players that have benefitted more from the change of system than Neco Williams - who is perfect as one of Glasner’s wingbacks in a 3-4-3.

Williams can play on either side, but Glasner has used him on the left most of the time which is beneficial when backing him for shots as he can come inside on his stronger right foot.

Williams has taken 12 shots across his nine starts in the Premier League this season (1.34 per 90), and has notably had at least one shot in each of Forest’s last two home games against Coventry and Arsenal.

Williams also had a shot in this fixture last season, finding the target from distance despite playing in a deeper role in that game as a left back. He’s pretty consistent with shots too, only two Forest players had more attempts in the Premier League than Williams last season (1.29 per 90).

After a positive start to the season, Newcastle’s form has dipped in recent weeks, and they are in the middle of a rough patch of form. The Magpies were beaten 1-0 by Everton last weekend, after being dumped out of the EFL Cup by the same opponent just before that. Newcastle were comprehensively beaten in both of those games.

Fulham should be able to cause problems in the final third, and they are averaging 6.6 corners per game across all competitions this season. That figure rises to an eye--catching 7.5 at Craven Cottage, where Fulham have landed this selection in five of their six matches overall.

Fulham’s results have been a mixed bag, but Alvaro Arbeloa deserves perhaps more credit for the job he has done since succeeding Marco Silva. The Cottagers play front-footed football, but they have only been let down at times by poor finishing.

Newcastle have the worst disciplinary record in the Premier League so far, and they are again expected to have a lot of defensive work to get through this weekend. Matthias Jaissle’s men were shown four yellow cards and a red against Everton last time out, meaning this selection has landed in each of their last four matches across all competitions.

Josh King has been instrumental in the final third for Fulham this season, operating in an advanced midfield position. He is averaging 2.49 shots per 90 across all competitions this term, rising to 2.9 when playing at Craven Cottage. King plays with much more confidence in front of a home crowd, and he has landed this selection in all four starts. Both of his goals this season have been scored at home, too.

This looks like a positive matchup for the 19-year-old, against a Newcastle side still licking their wounds after back-to-back defeats. They conceded 27 shots across those games, with ten of those on target, highlighting how they have leaked chances defensively.

Joelinton hobbled off towards the end of the game last week, and his replacement Jacob Ramsey was shown a red card. That leaves Newcastle a bit light on midfield options, so there is a big responsibility on the shoulders of Nico Gonzalez. He is likely to partner Joe Willock in the double pivot - the Englishman is a lot more attack-minded.

That will give Nico Gonzalez a greater defensive burden to carry, and the former Man City man is averaging 2.81 fouls per 90 since arriving at St James’ Park. He has landed this selection in seven of his nine starts, and been carded in three of those, which shows just how strong his tackles tend to be.

No player in this Newcastle squad has drawn more fouls than Lewis Hall this season, with the 22-year-old landing this bet in seven of his last eleven starts across all competitions. Despite being listed as a left back on paper, Hall is influential when the Magpies get on the ball - he often looks to invert centrally into midfield areas, and link with Harvey Barnes going forward.

Hall is adept at using his body to win soft free-kicks and allow Newcastle to establish themselves on the ball, and he has suffered ten fouls in his last three starts alone. He should find duels against Timothy Castagne this weekend, who is averaging 1.35 fouls per 90.

Real Madrid have been devastatingly efficient in the final third recently, and they should come into this clash full of confidence. They secured a convincing 3-0 win against Racing Santander last weekend, after beating Barcelona 2-1 at the Nou Camp. Los Blancos still have plenty to play for here as they aim to close the gap on their rivals at the top of the table.

Even though Valencia will have home advantage this weekend, it looks like a daunting matchup for them. Los Ches are currently battling in the relegation zone, having won just two of their opening 11 league matches. With 17 goals conceded, they have been far from watertight at the back, which spells danger against a side like Real Madrid.

Guido Rodriguez has been a key contributor to Valencia’s poor disciplinary record this season, and he has 14 fouls committed from just eight starts this campaign. The Argentine international has been booked three times in that stretch, averaging 1.88 fouls per 90.

Last season, Rodriguez had an average of 1.44 fouls per 90 across all competitions, which shows how he has been a lot more intense in his press this term. He didn’t start either game against Real Madrid, but did rack up five fouls against Barcelona at home, which shows how he struggled in tougher matchups. He should find duels against Jude Bellingham in midfield this weekend - the English international is averaging 3.11 fouls drawn per 90 in the league.

Valencia come into this clash as massive underdogs, but if they are to find any success in the final third, Arnaut Danjuma will have to play a considerable role. The former Spurs man is averaging 1.93 shots per 90 in La Liga this term, which is one of the highest figures in the Valencia squad, and he is expected to lead the line. Danjuma will be quite isolated at times, but he has the tools to exploit Madrid’s high line, and the 29-year-old isn’t afraid to try his luck from distance.

Valencia lost 5-0 against Barcelona at home in September, and they managed just three shots as a team, but Danjuma accounted for all three.

When Valencia did break forward, it was Danjuma who they typically looked for. However, it is likely to be one-way traffic for the majority of this contest at the Mestalla. Barcelona recorded 73% possession against Los Ches, carving out 25 shots of which ten hit the target. Valencia are unlikely to be able to keep Los Blancos at bay, and Kylian Mbappe should be licking his lips at the prospect of this matchup.

The Frenchman already has 12 goals from 12 starts in the league this season, but he still has some catching up to do. Raphinha is at 15 goals, so Mbappe will be motivated to close that gap, and this is an excellent matchup to do so.

I’m bitterly disappointed with Wrexham of late. I do think things have fizzled out a bit and Parkinson is in-fact out of his depth, but the owners are reluctant to part ways given their public ‘job for life’ comments.

They did get an excellent result against Middlesbrough in midweek which will have steadied the ship for now, or rather papered over cracks in my opinion.

Wolves are on a really nice run and are undefeated in their last five, winning four of those which included back-to-back away victories.

The metrics are strong for Wolves too. They average 1.70 xG but restrict opponents to just 1.21.

I do feel Lopez is still a touch lightweight and needs to toughen up for this division, but there’s no doubt about his ability and when he plays well, Wolves often get results.

He’s had at least one shot on target in three of his last five games and he’s also netted twice in that run.

His 11 shots on target this season is the most in the Wolves squad and that’s worked out to 0.98 per 90 minutes in the Championship this season.

Wrexham ship just shy of four shots on target per 90 minutes and given that I fancy Wolves for a result here, a Lopez shot on target should tie in nicely.

Now four foul involvements might look like a lot but Bellegarde’s numbers are absolutely off the scale in both fouls committed and fouls drawn.

Bellegarde has come into that number 10 position. He’s a busy bee, very industrious but also tidy on the ball with a sharp turn of pace.

Bellegarde draws an eye-watering average of 4.17 fouls per 90 minutes.

As for fouls committed, he averages 2.08 per 90 minutes. He tops the charts in both metrics for players who have a decent number of minutes.

He’s landed this selection in each of his last three starts.

An interesting element of Bellegarde’s place in the team is that it’s moved Fer Lopez out to the right-hand side.

Lopez is the most fouled player in the Wolves team, drawing 23 this season - an average of 2.05 times per 90 minutes.

Ekomie himself also has the stats to back it up. He’s averaged 1.15 fouls per 90 minutes in the Championship.

He can also play centrally, but on the left he has made five fouls in three starts. 

I’d expect Wolves to have plenty of the game and as mentioned, for Lopez to see plenty of the ball, so it’ll be a tough task for Ekomie.

This one isn’t very complicated.

Barnet have seen both teams score in 13/13 League Two outings this season, and that includes a 2-1 win at Tranmere where they won the xG battle 2.44-1.12.

Tranmere have seen this bet win in 9/14 in the league and five of seven at home in that sample.

Both teams saw BTTS in their EFL Cup matches this season as well, they both exited the competition at the earliest possible stage.

These are not big-hitters in terms of their budgetary rank in League Two, so the prize money on offer for progressing in the FA Cup will be a motivator for them.

Carlisle have scored two goals per game in the National League this season, seeing BTTS land in 12 of 16.

Salford have good pedigree in the FA Cup for a fourth tier side, reaching the third round in 24/25 and then the fourth round last season - going out to Man City on both occasions.

Salford have only kept one league clean sheet across seven away league games this term, with out-scoring their opponents helping them reach League Two’s summit more than relying on a solid defensive foundation.

Carlisle are a club with the infrastructure, wage budget and ambition to be competitive in the EFL in the coming years, and the bookies have recognised that with Salford coming in as 2.30 favourites at the time of writing.

Salford went off much shorter (2.01) than that when they went away to Walsall (now 3rd) in late October, which demonstrates how much the market rates Carlisle’s chances.

Worcester City are 17th in the 7th tier of English football, and Colchester can use this game as an opportunity to break a 12-game winless run in all competitions.

Col U manager, Danny Cowley, worked his way up into the EFL the hard way and will not be taking this game lightly.

He’s watched lots of Worcester lately, and detailed a strong understanding for their team in his pre-match presser, and will be targeting this game to breathe some confidence into his side, who’ve dropped into the relegation zone in League Two.

Colchester have been better than the league table and their goals for tally would suggest this season, scoring only 12 from 16.3 xG, a regression to the mean would see them put a fair few goals past this 7th tier backline.

With the off-pitch situation putting a lower ceiling on the job Cowley can do at Colchester at the moment, he’s not under as much pressure to keep his job as the 12-game winless run would suggest.

However, that could change if they don’t put in a convincing performance against 7th-tier opposition, they’ll be looking to use this game as a springboard and won’t be taking anything for granted.

This bet wins if Exeter do NOT lose the game by three goals or more.

Huddersfield could do without a cup run compromising their automatic promotion tilt in League One, and fan-owned Exeter would benefit more than most from the financial rewards of an FA Cup run.

In the last two years Exeter have been very impressive in the FA Cup, reaching the fourth round in 24/25, going out to Nottingham Forest on penalties, and the third round last season when they lost 10-1 to Man City.

This is not a priority for Huddersfield, and influential players like Derensili Sanchez Fernandes (who has just received his first call-up for Cape Verde) and Joe Taylor will likely be rested.

Exeter have the best defensive record in League Two this season, conceding only nine from 14 games at 0.64 per game.

If they concede two or fewer in this game the bet can’t lose.

Orient are capable of going big, particularly at home, and they’re now hosting a side 75 places below them in the football pyramid.

Harborough are 17th in the National League North and have only won once in their last eight in the league.

Four of Orient’s five league wins this season have covered this bet, they beat 8th-placed Cambridge 3-0 last time out, also at home, and the home game before that they got the better of Blackpool, 2-0.

They’ve got Premier League experience in attacking areas in Aaron Connolly and Dane Scarlett, and it’s only the season before last (24/25) when they were losing play-off finalists in League One.

Richie Wellens remains in the dugout from that campaign, and has long been aiming to land a job in the Championship, that sort of recognition could come as a result of springing some upsets in the FA Cup.

Harborough have some familiar faces in Britt Assombalonga, Kyle Hudlin and Michael Jacobs, but the quality gap between the sides should be clear to see in East London.

Deja vu anyone?

This is a repeat tie from last season’s FA Cup first round, the bet cashed in that one as Luton made hard work of Forest Green - winning 4-3.

FGR aren’t looking as strong a year on from that epic, and Luton are in a better place for a year of consistency in the dugout under Jack Wilshere.

Rovers are 16th in the National League coming into this, on the decline after making the play-offs in each of the last two seasons.

Even if Luton do rotate, they’ve good strength in depth and they’ve taken 13 points from the last 15 available in League One - including a very creditable 1-1 draw at 1st-placed Huddersfield in midweek.

After two miserable years post-Premier League relegation, a cup run could be viewed as an opportunity to re-harness the feel around the club that contributed to their meteoric rise through the leagues.

We need them to score two or more goals for this bet to land, half what they managed in this encounter last season, and they’re averaging a very healthy 1.93 goals for per game in League One anyway.

Scoring two or more in 9/14 outings in the league, and in four in a row before this midweek’s trip to the league leaders.

The Cherries are in incredible form. They’ve won seven on the spin in all comps, keeping six clean sheets.

They’ve averaged 1.57 xG and cruised past Manchester United last time out.

They’re excellent in attack, with Evanilson and Marcus Tavernier performing particularly well recently.

Ipswich have the second highest xGA in the Premier League at 2 per match and one of the lowest xG’s at 1.28.

Sociedad have won 4 of their last 5 La Liga matches and they’ve lost just one home game so far, which was against Atletico Madrid.

They’ve averaged 1.58 xG and notably, they have been much sterner defensively at home, averaging 1.32 xGA compared to 2.05 away.

That strength at home matches up well with Vallecano’s lacklustre away form.

The visitors are winless in five away matches which includes shipping five to Barcelona and four to Real Madrid.

In total, they’ve managed just two points from a possible 15 on their travels.

Freiburg are going really well and are keeping pace at the top of the Bundesliga with five wins from their opening eight games.

Only Bayern and RB Leipzig have outscored them and on home soil they’ve won three from four, only tasting defeat to Bayern.

Their home metrics are very impressive as they average 1.69 xG and restrict their opponents to just 1.06 and even that is inflated by the 1.98 Bayern had.

Union Berlin have won just one game this season and on the road their returns have been laughable.

They’ve taken one point and scored just a single goal in three games, shipping 12 in the process with an eye-watering 2.75xGA.

Ao Tanaka has been getting stuck in a lot more for Leeds this season, committing 12 fouls and picking up two yellow cards in eight Premier League games.

He’s already almost matched his foul tally from the whole of last season, when he gave away just 13 in 28 games. His average has jumped from 0.89 to 1.92 fouls per 90 minutes.

He’s given away 11 fouls in his last five games, including three against Crystal Palace and another three against Manchester United.

James Maddison and Omar Marmoush could make life difficult for Tanaka in midfield.

Both have already got opponents booked this season, including Lisandro Martínez and Nikola Milenković.

John Brooks is another reason to keep an eye on this one. He’s handed out 34 yellow cards in six Premier League games, averaging 5.67 per match, with at least five bookings in five of those games.

Alessandro Deiola is the joint-most booked player in Serie A this season, with four yellow cards in ten games for Cagliari.

His home record is even more interesting. He’s picked up a yellow in all four home games against Inter, Lecce, Juventus and Bologna.

Frosinone have been drawing plenty of fouls, averaging 12.1 per game, and Giorgi Kvernadze is one player worth keeping an eye on.

He’s averaging 1.56 fouls won per 90 minutes this season and could cause plenty of problems down the right side of Cagliari’s defence.

He’s been fouled five times in his last two games and has already got two opponents booked this season: Genoa’s Kingsley Ehizibue and Como’s Yan Couto.

Giovanni Ayroldi is another referee who isn’t shy about getting his cards out. He’s averaged 4.46 yellow cards and around 28.5 fouls per game across the last two Serie A seasons.

Como are on some run at the moment.

They’ve won each of their last six matches, netting 22 goals in the process.

Cesc Fabregas’ side put nine goals past Lens in the Champions League during the week, highlighting just how much confidence this young and talented side are playing with at the moment.

I don’t think they’ll be phased by the trip to face Inter Milan, which is admittedly the toughest assignment for any side in the division, and we only need them to score once.

Inter’s underlying attacking numbers are really positive, but there are clear defensive issues. Five sides in Serie A have conceded fewer goals than Inter this season, and they’ve only kept three clean sheets across their 10 matches (30%).

Fiorentina, Club Brugge, Udinese and Monza have all scored against Inter at home this season. Como enter this game with real confidence, and have enough players firing to score at least once.

I’m also keen to back Como to earn at least four corners during this contest.

The Blue and Whites are very attack-minded and excellent at retaining possession, which naturally sees them rack up plenty of corners.

That is underlined by the fact that Como have averaged 7.10 corners per game in Serie A this season, the second-highest tally in the division and only bettered by Juventus.

Upon closer inspection, Como have cleared the over 3.5 corners hurdle in each of their 10 league matches this season, as well as during their demolition of Lens in the Champions League in midweek.

While Inter do not tend to concede too many corners, they have had to defend 4 or more in each of their four Champions League games this season, including home matches against Club Brugge and Shakhtar Donetsk.

It’s also worth pointing out that Napoli forced 5 flag kicks against Inter at the San Siro earlier this season.

Nicolo Barella is a player I’ve had success with in the foul markets in recent weeks, and I’m keen to back the Inter Milan midfielder to commit at least one foul against Como on Sunday.

The Italian international was in the thick of the action during last week’s Milan derby, when he was penalised on 3 occasions.

That means Barella has now committed at least 1 foul in each of his last four Serie A outings, taking his overall average for the season to 1.08 per game.

Even more encouraging is the fact that he was guilty of 5 offences during Inter’s 3-0 win away at Feyenoord in the Champions League earlier this week.

I expect Barella’s combative streak to be on show again here against an attack-minded Como side with plenty of pace and flair.

He’s likely to come into close contact with Luis Milla and Nico Paz.

The pair have drawn an average of 1.25 and 1.10 fouls per game respectively in Serie A this season.

Back Nico Paz to be fouled at least once on Sunday evening.

As already mentioned, the classy Como playmaker has drawn an average of 1.10 fouls per game in Serie A this season.

A closer look shows that the Como ace has been fouled 8 times across his six league appearances away from home this term.

Paz has also come in for plenty of close attention in the Champions League.

He’s won at least 1 free kick in all four of his appearances and 2 or more in three of them, including against Lens last time out.

Given how influential he is for Como, he is likely to come in for plenty of close attention from Inter’s midfield on Sunday evening.

He could find himself up against the aforementioned Nicolo Barella, who has been committing fouls regularly in recent weeks, as well as Hakan Calhanoglu, who has averaged 1.34 fouls per 90 in Serie A this season.

Mathys Tel is improving every week under Roberto De Zerbi, and had a bit of a breakthrough game against Chelsea a few weeks ago in Tottenham’s most recent away game.

Tel has always been a superb finisher. That was evident when he was at Bayern, where he played as a striker most of the time, but his confidence took a real hit last season so we didn’t see that side of his game as much.

He scored a brilliant goal against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge to secure Tottenham’s first win at the stadium in nearly 40 years. It wasn’t just the goal either, Tel looked dangerous throughout the game and notably had 11 touches in the opposition box.

I can see Tel continuing to improve under De Zerbi and have chances here. He scored four goals across 13 starts in the Premier League last season, which is far from an awful return, and has taken 13 shots already (2.67 per 90).

Only Dominic Calvert-Lewin has had more shots (16) and more shots on target (9) for Leeds this season than Jayden Bogle.

He’s been really underrated this season, and has adapted really well to a right wingback role under Daniel Farke which allows him to get forward more often.

He’s had at least one shot in three of his four home games for Leeds, managing multiple shots in two of these games.

He also notably managed at least two touches in the opposition box in all four matches, showing that he is getting into those dangerous areas for Leeds.

Bogle has also managed to find the target in two of his four home games, managing two shots on target in Leeds’ 4-1 win over Newcastle a few weeks ago.

Tottenham have won more corners than any other side in the Premier League this season (7.89 per game), and Van Hecke has been a decent shot threat from those situations.

He scored against Palace last time out from five shots, which is ridiculously high for a centre back. Palace did drop down to 10 men, inflating Tottenham’s corner count and general dominance - but Van Hecke has been pretty consistent with shots outside of that game.

He’s had a shot in five of his nine Premier League appearances this term and also sees more of the ball than any other Tottenham player. He’s so comfortable on the ball that he is more than willing to step into advanced areas, also opening up an avenue for Van Hecke to shoot from distance.

Liam Delap has found it quite tough leading the line for Forest this season, he doesn’t look that different to the player we saw at Chelsea.

One of my main issues with Delap for a while has been how obsessed he is with engaging in duels rather than trying to bring others into play.

There’s a few strikers like this, Rasmus Hojlund being another, but it does lead to Delap being a decent player in this market. A good example of this is his battle with O’Shea a few weeks ago, where he literally pulled off O’Shea’s shirt and somehow avoided a caution.

He’s committed 15 fouls across his eight appearances in the Premier League (2.28 per 90), which is more than any other player on the pitch. This has led to Delap picking up two yellow cards.

He’s scored one goal so far this season, which was a long distance effort against Aston Villa and there is clearly still a decent player in there. He’s also lining up against his former club, giving him that extra bit of motivation.

Murillo is one of the most entertaining centre backs to watch in the Premier League with his ability to carry the ball into advanced areas and go on mazy runs.

He’s done this throughout his Forest career, but it’s more exaggerated than ever before now with Murillo playing as the left sided centre back in a back three.

This allows the Brazilian to step forward into advanced areas more often, and he’s accepted this invitation - taking 15 shots across his nine appearances in the Premier League (1.67 per 90).

No centre back in the Premier League has had more shots than Murillo, who also ranks in the 85th percentile for touches in the opposition box per 90 when compared to other centre backs in the division.

He’s had a shot in each of his last five Premier League appearances, also having 2+ shots in each of Forest’s last three home games. He’s found the target in three of his last four matches, and I back him to be a shot threat again here.

Man City have picked up 2+ cards in all four of their away games in the Premier League this season, actually collecting 3+ cards in two of these games - including four against Aston Villa last time out.

There’s quite a few 1v1 duels to keep an eye on here for player cards as well, I’ve already highlighted Delap’s aggression at the top end of the pitch but City have four players who have picked up 2+ cards in the Premier League this season.

City have picked up at least one card in seven of their nine Premier League matches this season, collecting multiple cards in four of these games. They’re clearly more likely to overstep the mark on the road, and I think that trend continues here.

Johan Manzambi has settled in really well at Aston Villa, and found the target against Barcelona during the week as Unai Emery’s side slumped to a 3-0 defeat.

He’s a natural replacement for Morgan Rogers with many of the same traits that made the now Chelsea man such an effective player in the Premier League last season.

Manzambi has registered five shots on target across his six appearances in the Premier League this season (1.16 per 90). Only Nicolas Jackson (9) has had more shots on target than Manzambi in the Premier League this term, and he’s played two more games.

Manzambi has had a shot on target in both of his Premier League appearances in away games for Aston Villa this season - managing two efforts on target in the win over Tottenham.

You could see the relief and passion on Fernandes’ face as Man Utd came from 2-0 down to beat Roma 3-2 in the Champions League during the week.

Fernandes was as involved as he always is, taking four shots and scoring from the penalty spot as well as registering an assist and picking up a yellow card.

Man Utd are still in a bit of a mess, but that result will definitely help to lift spirits and Fernandes showed in that comeback exactly why he is so crucial to Man Utd.

Only Bryan Mbeumo (27) has had more shots in the Premier League than Fernandes (25 - 3.13 per 90). He’s quite careless with his efforts, often taking aim when there are better options available.

That’s a trend that exists across the United squad as well, they’ve had the most shots of any side in the Premier League (18.56 per game).

You’re probably tired of me defending Senne Lammens, but he’s constantly being asked to do the impossible in this United side and would be seen in a different light with a competent defensive set up in front of him.

Only three keepers in the Premier League have been called into action more often than Lammens this season, with the Belgian having to make 30 saves across just nine matches (3.33 per 90).

He’s made at least one save in all nine of his Premier League appearances this season, having to make multiple stops in seven of those games.

The only games where he wasn’t forced into at least two saves were against Bournemouth, who scored three from four shots on target, and Man City, who had a man sent off early on.

Aston Villa have the attacking threats to test Lammens, namely Jackson and Manzambi who will almost certainly find space in transition with how unorganised Man Utd’s backline is.

I can’t see this game being tight, Man Utd’s 3-2 comeback win over Roma was a good snapshot into how their games have generally been this season.

The attacking setup is not too bad at Man Utd, with individual quality like Fernandes, Mbeumo, Cunha and Amad - you’re always going to be able to produce individual moments of quality.

It’s at the other end where there are more alarming issues, only six sides have conceded more goals than Man Utd in the Premier League this season (1.67 per game), and it seems to get worse at Old Trafford - they’ve only kept one clean sheet at home across all competitions (v Sabah).

Ipswich, Roma, Bournemouth and Brighton have all scored at least twice at Old Trafford this season, and only five sides have faced a greater xG conceded than Carrick’s side.

One of those sides is Aston Villa, who have conceded 13 goals from an xG conceded of 15.1. They’ve seen 3+ goals in each of their last two away matches, and in four of their last five more widely.

Antonio Nusa has been flying this season, with four goals and six assists in eight Bundesliga games. That’s ten goal contributions, putting him level with Harry Kane at the top of the league.

He’s already had 18 shots, with nine on target, and comes into this one having scored in his last two games against Schalke and Manchester City.

He’s been even better at home, scoring in three of his four games and having a hand in eight goals during that spell.

Leipzig have been on fire at home, with 18 goals in four games and an average of 3.37 xG per match in the Bundesliga.

Augsburg haven’t exactly been solid at the back, conceding eight goals in just three away games.

They’re also giving up an average of 20.3 shots per match, with nine of those on target.

Both teams have been free-scoring of late and gamestate will lend itself towards goals if one team is leading heading into the closing exchanges of the game - the margin of defeat is irrelevant in a cup tie.

8th-tier Stafford beat Gateshead, of the National League, 5-0 in a replay in the final round of qualifying, and currently sit 2nd in the Northern Premier League Division One West with 11 wins and three defeats.

Grimsby, who beat Man Utd in the EFL Cup last season, will have to contend with Tom Tonks’ long throws (see Tamworth v Tottenham from 24/25 if you don’t remember these missiles) whenever they concede a throw in their own third.

Which doesn’t bode well considering they’ve conceded six goals and 0.49 xG per game from set pieces in League Two this season, and Stafford can turn every throw in the Grimsby defensive third into a set piece.

Grimsby have been reliable going forward this season and come into this game off an epic 5-2 win over York.

Only Barnet and Salford have scored more than Grimsby in the fourth tier, and they’ve seen over 2.5 goals in five of their seven league away games.

This game is definitely on the upset radar given how Crawley have played this season.

There hasn’t been an uplift since Kevin Blackwell’s arrival in an interim capacity replacing Colin Kazim-Richards in the dugout, despite what results suggest.

They won 1-0 at Oldham last weekend, but it was a hugely unconvincing performance considering the hosts were reduced to nine men from the 30th minute onwards.

That was their first league win since late August and their first league clean sheet of the season (which definitely has an asterisk next to it).

Wimborne will have moments on their own patch, they have five-time Northern Ireland international Josh McQuoid and average 1.69 goals for per game in the league this term.

Crawley’s three EFL Trophy games this season average 3.67 total goals and they lost 3-0 at Boreham Wood at this stage of the FA Cup last season.

In fact, Crawley’s FA Cup first round encounter has seen three or more goals in each of the last four seasons.

Oldham have been one of the biggest data outliers, and unsustainable underperformers, in League Two this season, scoring just 15 from 21.36 xG.

A regression to the mean in their finishing would see them contribute to the scoreline against Sheffield Wednesday.

Wednesday have been inconsistent this season, but have shown that when they click they can be devastating, beating Bromley 7-2 and AFC Wimbledon 5-0 earlier in the campaign.

Dave Challinor has recently replaced Henrik Pedersen in the dugout and will be keen to avoid embarrassment at Boundary Park.

Oldham saw over 3.5 goals in their two FA Cup outings last season, a similar tally is expected in this one.

Chelsea come into this clash in a strong run of form, having won three of their last four league matches, and it finished 2-0 against Man United last time out. The Blues have had a full week to rest and prepare for this fixture against Sunderland, which gives them another advantage. There were 15 corners in their game against Man United last weekend, with Chelsea accounting for eight of those, meaning they are averaging 5.8 corners per game across all competitions.

Interestingly, that figure actually rises to 6.2 when playing away, where they have landed this selection in each of their last three games on the road.

Xabi Alonso likes his side to play with width, but they have left themselves a bit exposed in midfield at times. Chelsea are averaging exactly 2.0 cards per game in the league this season, rising to 2.75 when playing away where this selection has landed in three of their four games.

Sunderland haven’t been in the best form, but they are still averaging an eye-catching 14.3 fouls drawn per game this season. For context, only Arsenal and Man City have suffered more infringements than the Black Cats. Six of their last eight Premier League opponents have hit this mark, including Arsenal and Bournemouth.

Cole Palmer isn’t the first name who comes to mind when thinking of fouls, but his numbers this season have been impressive. Palmer was sent off against Spurs for two bookable offences, and he already had two yellow cards to his name prior to that sending off.

Palmer has accrued a total of 11 infringements this season, which is more than any other player in the Chelsea squad. He has landed this selection in seven of his nine starts overall, including the last five in a row, which makes this price stand out. Granit Xhaka and Noah Sadiki have combined for 3.3 fouls drawn per 90 in the league this season, and they should find duels against Palmer here.

Enzo Le Fee is another Sunderland player who has been adept at drawing contact, and he is averaging 1.96 fouls drawn per 90 in the league. The Frenchman has landed this bet in five of his nine league games this term, and this matchup against Chelsea is a favourable one to improve that hit-rate.

Chelsea are likely to dominate possession at the Stadium of Light, but Le Fee is the type of player who can get out of high-pressure situations. He likes having the ball at his feet, and is adept when it comes to beating opposing players - he is perhaps the most press-resistant player for Sunderland, and Le Fee was fouled three times against Man City back in December.

Morgan Rogers has been Chelsea’s most effective player in the final third this season, and he already has five league goals to his name. Rogers scored a wonderful solo goal against Man United last weekend to give his side the lead, and he should come into this clash full of confidence.

The 24-year-old is averaging 2.38 shots per 90 in the league this season, and exactly a third of his efforts have hit the target. Sunderland have conceded 14 goals in their last six league matches, which shows how they haven’t been watertight at the back, so Rogers should be able to find chances in the final third.

Scored in 5/5

Most carded Palace player

Improving under Iraola

Brentford’s form has also been impressive, and they rank sixth in the Premier League. The Bees have only lost once in nine league matches so far, making this a clash between two in-form teams.

Over 2.5 goals has landed in eight out of 12 Brentford games across all competitions, with all four misses finishing on exactly two goals. Their games have been quite open, and the Bees haven’t struggled to find the back of the net. However, their biggest task at the Amex here will be keeping Brighton at bay. With 24 goals scored in just nine Premier League matches, no side has been more efficient in the final third than Fabian Hurzeler’s men.

Michael Oliver is the designated referee for this clash on the south coast, and he is likely to be kept busy - Brighton and Brentford have been two of the most ill-disciplined sides in the Premier League so far.

The Seagulls are averaging 2.4 cards per game this campaign, and they have picked up at least two bookings in seven of their nine matches. When playing at home, this bet has landed in three of their four matches. Brentford have an identical hit-rate when playing away this season, and they have picked up 22 yellows in their nine matches. The Bees have also been shown three red cards, which is a league-high.

With Ferdi Kadioglu still out with injury, Costinha looks set to retain his spot at right back. The Portuguese international is averaging 1.66 fouls per 90 across all competitions for Brighton, and he will be directly up against Kevin Schade this weekend.

The Brentford winger likes to be direct in his play, and look to beat his defender. He is one of the more technical players in the Brentford squad, meaning he typically sees plenty of the ball. Schade is averaging 1.8 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, and he was fouled three times against Nottingham Forest last weekend.

Schade should also find duels against Chema Andres this weekend, when he looks to invert centrally, or even in transitional scenarios. Andres is given a significant defensive responsibility under Hurzeler, and he is averaging 2.53 fouls per 90 across all competitions. This selection has landed in six of his seven appearances overall - the only miss came against Man City, but Andres was shown a yellow card for his first foul, and then withdrawn after 64 minutes.

The Spaniard is also averaging 3.07 tackles per 90 this season, which is the highest in the Brighton squad, which shows just how willing he is to jump into tackles, and he should have plenty of duels to contest this weekend.

Yasin Ayari scored Brighton’s winner at Man City last weekend, so he should come into this clash full of confidence. The Swedish international only managed one shot in that game as the Seagulls were forced to defend deep for large periods, which was the first time he has failed to land this selection all season. Ayari is averaging 2.9 shots per 90 from his nine starts across all competitions this season, and he has been incredibly consistent at landing this selection.

Ayari has already chipped in with three Premier League goals, matching his tally from the previous campaign. Over half of his efforts in the league have come from outside the box, and his confidence should be sky-high.

Barcelona have been the most attack-minded side in the Spanish top flight so far, with 46 goals scored from just 11 games. By contrast, Atletico Madrid boast the strongest defensive statistics, but it seems unlikely that they will be unlikely to keep the Catalans at bay.

Barcelona’s high line has become a staple of their play - they make it so difficult for opponents to progress, but they can at times be caught in transition. Atletico Madrid have the tools to exploit space offered to them in behind, and they should play with confidence on home turf. After losing 2-0 against Bayern Munich midweek, Diego Simeone will demand a reaction from his side at the weekend, and this promises to be an open contest.

Raphinha is currently the top scorer in La Liga with a tally of 15 goals in just ten league appearances. He is three goals above Kylian Mbappe. The Brazilian international is in his prime, and he added another two goals against Aston Villa midweek, as Barcelona cruised to a 3-0 win at the Nou Camp.

Raphinha has 19 goals and three assists this season in just 13 matches across all competitions. Those numbers are incredible, and he has landed this selection in 11 of his 12 starts overall. The only miss came against PSG at the Parc-des-Princes, when Raphinha was substituted after 60 minutes. The 29-year-old scored in both starts against Atletico last season, so he should be looking forward to this matchup.

Atletico Madrid and Barcelona met six times last season - twice in La Liga, twice in the Champions League, and twice in the Copa Del Rey. Joao Cancelo started four of those matches, and he landed this selection every time. He even picked up a booking in the home leg of the Copa Del Rey.

The Portuguese international is much more confident going forward than he is at defending, and he will be up against Giuliano Simeone this weekend. The Argentine winger is averaging 1.68 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, which is one of the highest figures in the Atletico squad.

Ademola Lookman is likely to start on the opposite flank, and he should be looking forward to this matchup. The Nigerian international scored twice against Barcelona last season, and his pace in transition proved to be tough to handle. Lookman hasn’t been given too many opportunities to start this season by Diego Simeone, but this matchup seems to suit him well.

Lookman seems to thrive in tougher matchups when there is space to run in behind, and he even managed to get on the scoresheet against Real Madrid. He had an average of 3.1 shots per 90 across all competitions last season after joining Atletico, rising to 3.8 at the Metropolitano.

I fancy Fiorentina to score at least once against Juventus on Sunday night.

While Paolo Vanoli’s side started the weekend perched precariously above the relegation zone, they have had no issues finding the net this season.

That is underlined by the fact that the Viola have scored in 8 of their opening 10 Serie A matches of the campaign, including 4 of their five fixtures at home.

Across their last three games at the Franchi, they have scored against Napoli, Como and Atalanta, while they also made the net bulge away at Inter Milan.

As such, I think Fiorentina are more than capable of making their mark against a Juventus side facing a quick turnaround after Thursday night’s 2-1 Europa League win away at AZ.

Moreover, the Old Lady have failed to keep a clean sheet in 3 of their last four Serie A away games, conceding against the likes of Sassuolo, Cagliari and Genoa.

Juventus are a team I’ve regularly targeted in the corner markets this season, and I’m keen to back over 9.5 flag kicks when they visit Fiorentina on Sunday night.

Luciano Spalletti’s side have been the corner kings of Serie A this season, averaging a league-high 8.20 corners per game.

That can be attributed to the fact that Juventus’ matches are generating an average of 11.90 corners per game.

In fact, 7 of the visitors’ 10 Serie A games this season have produced at least 10 corners, with the Italian giants reaching double figures on their own in three of them.

As such, I think Juventus are more than capable of doing most of the heavy lifting here, although Fiorentina should contribute too, having averaged 4.90 corners per game this term.

Even more encouraging is the fact that the Viola have racked up 11 corners against Como and 8 against Atalanta across their last two home matches.

Back Nick Woltemade to be fouled at least once on Sunday night.

Woltemade’s towering frame makes him an awkward customer for opposition defences to deal with, which naturally sees him draw contact and win fouls.

Case in point was Juventus’ win over Napoli last weekend, when the German forward was brought down on no fewer than 5 occasions.

That was no one-off, as Woltemade has drawn an average of 3.36 fouls per game in Serie A this season and earned his side three set pieces during his last away start at Lecce.

On top of that, Woltemade has been fouled in each of Juventus’ four Europa League matches this season, winning 2+ free kicks in three of those contests.

He is likely to be drawn into plenty of physical duels with Fiorentina centre-backs Vieri and Radu Dragusin.

Both defenders have been regulars on the referee’s radar in Serie A this season, committing averages of 1.39 and 1.10 fouls per 90 respectively.

I’m keen to back Alieu Njie to attempt at least two shots on Sunday night.

The pacey Fiorentina winger likes to get efforts away whenever openings present themselves, which is reflected in his average of 2.29 shots per game in Serie A this season.

A closer look shows the Swede has had at least 2 attempts in each of Fiorentina’s last three home games, against Napoli, Atalanta and Como, firing off 4 shots against the latter.

He is also likely to come into this clash full of confidence, having scored and provided an assist in each of Fiorentina’s last two Serie A matches.

Juventus could be heavy-legged after their Europa League exertions on Thursday night, so Njie should have opportunities to pull the trigger at least twice when the Turin giants come to town.