Saka has returned to fitness at the perfect time for Arsenal, and looked back to his best in Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Fulham last week - finding the back of the net in the opening 45 minutes with a brilliant finish.

He followed this promising display with another goal against Atletico Madrid, managing 2+ shots in his 58 minutes of action as he fired Arsenal to their first Champions League final in 20 years. He’s taken 66 shots across his 23 starts in the Premier League this season (2.89 per 90), seeing 27 of these efforts find the target (1.18 per 90).

Saka had four shots when these sides met earlier in the campaign, seeing one of those efforts find the target as he got on the scoresheet from the penalty spot. He also converted a penalty in Arsenal’s most recent trip to the London Stadium, so he has a solid record against the Hammers to back up his seasonal stats. 

There’s clear value here, Saka is as short as 1.40 for a shot on target with some bookmakers so I’m all over it. 

Will Osula has now led the line in the last four Newcastle games, managing five Shots on Target in the process. 1+ Shot on Target has landed in three of these games, Arsenal away being the game where he blanked.

One thing about Osula is that he loves getting a shot off, he's taking 2.44 shots per 90 which shows that he isn't afraid to pull the trigger. A really solid amount of these shots are hitting the target too (1.38 per 90).

Newcastle now travel to a Forest side that were just dumped out of the Europa League with a 4-0 loss to Aston Villa on Thursday. Forest also concede a pretty hefty 12.70 shots per game (4.11 on target).

Ndiaye has only averaged a Shot on Target 0.75 times per 90 this season, but his recent form is enough for me to take him for one today.

He's coming into this off the back of Everton's 3-3 draw with Man City, where Ndiaye had a pretty mental three Shots on Target, from four efforts. He's also landed Shots on Target against the likes of Liverpool and Chelsea in his last five games.

This is a big game for Everton given they can still land a European spot. The selection also landed in the reverse fixture earlier this season.

Last but not least, Morgan Rogers. He's had a Shot on Target in four of his last six starts, with his shot volume continuing to be extremely high, he's taken two or more shots in 13 of his last 15 starts.

I think Villa will target this game against Burnley as the one to pretty much confirm UCL football next season, as they will want to rest against Liverpool next week before their UEL final, and then face Man City on the final day of the season.

So I'm expecting them to go strong, against a Burnley side that have conceded by far the most Shots on Target in the league this season (5.77 per match).

I like a good narrative, and there are quite a few across the pitch here, but my focus is on former Arsenal centre back Konstantinos Mavropanos - who has already bruised the Gunners before. Mavropanos scored against Arsenal at the Emirates back in 2023, with that 2-0 win for West Ham being one of the key reasons as to why Arsenal’s title charge was derailed that year.

He’s pretty average as a centre back in all honesty, he’s been better towards the end of the season, but I think that’s more due to the changes around him with Axel Disasi and Mads Hermansen stepping into the fold. Mavropanos has scored three goals in the Premier League this season, and has taken 21 shots across these games (0.84 per 90) - so he’s posted pretty similar numbers to Gabriel this term. 

He’s had a shot in each of his last two home games for West Ham, notably scoring twice against Wolves from corners a few weeks ago. West Ham’s main route to goal could be through set pieces here, and Mavropanos is an excellent candidate to make the most of what could be a healthy corner count for the Hammers. 

Set pieces have been decisive in the Premier League all season. This campaign has seen more goals from set pieces than each of the last 10 Premier League campaigns, and I think they will play a part in sealing the relegation and title battles, which could go all the way to the end of the season.

Gabriel is always a threat from corners and set pieces, I’d say he’s probably the best centre back in the Premier League when it comes to attacking corners and also making space for himself in the box. His movement is really clever and allows him to lose his marker and get shots off. Arsenal racked up eight corners when they faced West Ham earlier in the season, so we can expect Gabriel to have chances from corners here.

Gabriel has registered seven goal contributions across his 28 starts in the Premier League, which is a respectable total for a centre back, and has scored 4+ goals across each of his last three seasons. He’s averaging 0.86 shots per 90 in the Premier League, and the prominence that set pieces should have here should give Gabriel a good chance of finding the target. 

I love Mateus Fernandes, I think he’s so talented and will develop into a top Premier League midfielder. I’ve had my eye on him all season due to his impressive performances for a side battling at the bottom of the table, and he has the ability to really control games, which is a standout trait of the 21-year-old.

The slight drawback for Fernandes is his disciplinary record; he’s picked up seven yellow cards across his 32 starts for West Ham in the Premier League this season - more than any other West Ham player, while averaging 1.47 fouls committed per 90. He’ll have to be tenacious again here if West Ham want to combat the control that Arsenal are often able to establish in midfield.

He’s picked up four cards across his last 10 Premier League starts for West Ham, showing how his frustration is starting to peak towards the end of the campaign. I can see him lunging into tackles against Eberechi Eze, but also getting frustrated if things start to go against West Ham and they are unable to get a feel of the ball.

Arsenal Most Shots on Target in Each Half

Arsenal average the third-most Shots on Target per game in the league (4.91), comfortably clear of West Ham (3.49).
But what really stands out here is what both sides allow defensively.

Arsenal concede fewer Shots on Target than anyone in the league, a full shot per game fewer than the next-best side, whilst West Ham concede the second-most. That’s a huge gap.

This selection landed in the reverse fixture too, when Arsenal totalled five Shots on Target to West Ham's zero.

Arsenal Most Corners in Each Half

You don't need me to tell you how much Arsenal love a corner. They average 5.89 per game whilst only conceding 3.31.

West Ham have had a lot of success from set pieces since Nuno joined, so I'm sure Arteta will have told his team to limit the amount of corners they concede.

Again, this landed at the Emirates earlier this season. Arsenal finished on six corners, West Ham on two.

West Ham 2+ Cards

This is crunch time for West Ham now, they need results or they'll be going to the Championship. This sort of pressure usually results in cards whether it be through frustration or desperation.

Looking at West Ham's last five matches they've covered this line in four, being awarded 3+ cards in a couple of these games too. They also covered it in the reverse fixture.

Crysencio Summerville has arguably been West Ham’s  standout performer this season; however, he's also been committing fouls on a regular basis.

Summerville is committing an average of 1.92 fouls per game in the Premier League this season. A closer look shows Summerville has committed 2 or more fouls in 9 of his last 14 Premier League appearances, being penalised a combined total of 7 times in his last 2 outings at the London Stadium.

Summerville is likely to find himself up against Arsenal’s Ben White, who draws an average of 0.80 fouls per game in the Premier League this season. He should also cross paths with Bukayo Saka, who draws an average of 2.24 fouls per 90.

Vinicius has scored 15 goals from his 33 league appearances this season, but in addition to his attacking threat, he has also picked up eight yellow cards. He often looks to press from the front, and the Brazilian is also sometimes guilty of talking himself into the referee’s notebook. Vinicius has plenty of experience in this matchup against Barcelona, and he is averaging 1.44 fouls per 90 against them since the 18/19 season. In recent years, he has accrued 10 fouls in his last six starts, with four bookings in that period. 

Barcelona have never won the La Liga title by beating Real Madrid, so this is quite a significant fixture at Camp Nou. Tensions will be high, and in an emotionally-charged atmosphere, Vinicius is one to target to pick up a booking.

Fermin Lopez is another player who takes this rivalry incredibly seriously and he is averaging 3.47 fouls per 90 against Real Madrid from his eight appearances in El Clasico. The La Masia graduate has been carded in four of those matches, despite only making four starts, which shows how Real Madrid aren’t his favourite opponent. 

Fermin Lopez scored in the October fixture at the Bernabeu, and the 22-year-old left it late before eventually picking up a booking in the 99th minute. He is averaging 1.91 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, highlighting how he is one of the most combative players in this Barcelona squad, and he has racked up seven infringements in his last two starts alone. 

His most recent booking came against Atletico Madrid, which shows how Fermin Lopez takes things up a gear in the more competitive matchups.

Lewandowski has netted 13 goals across his 14 starts in LaLiga this term, and may have to step up for Barcelona here with the likes of Lamine Yamal and Raphinha set to be unavailable.

Lewandowski had four shots when the sides last met, seeing one of those efforts find the target as Barcelona came away 3-2 winners over Real in the Super Cup. He also scored against Osasuna in Barcelona’s most recent league assignment, so he comes into this game with some solid form.

He’s had 59 shots in LaLiga this season (3.85 per 90), seeing an impressive 27 of those efforts find the target (1.76 per 90). I still think Barcelona will play in the same way they have been all season, even while missing some of their star players, though Lewandowski should find a few more chances fall his way as the main attacking threat for Barcelona here. 

Vinicius Junior has a solid record against Barcelona, and he was heavily involved when the sides last met in the Super Cup. The Brazil international scored the first goal of the game for his side, and he was unfortunate not to add more to his tally on the night. Vinicius finished the game with five shots, and four hit the target. He saw a much greater responsibility in that game with Kylian Mbappe only fit enough to feature from the bench, and that could be the case again this weekend as the Frenchman has been struggling with an injury. 

Even with Mbappe in the starting XI, Vinicius has landed this selection in each of his last three games against the Catalans, which shows how he tends to take things up a gear when playing in El Clasico. Vinicius is averaging 3.36 shots per 90 in the league this season, and 46% of those efforts have hit the target.

Pedri has committed just eight fouls in his 26 La Liga appearances this season, which works out to just 0.38 fouls per 90, but exactly half of those infringements came against Real Madrid in the reverse fixture. In fact, Pedri was booked after just 42 minutes in that match, and he was sent off in stoppage time for a cynical foul - those are the only two cards he has picked up in the league all season. 

His foul numbers rise significantly when playing against Real Madrid, and Pedri committed two fouls when the sides met in January - once again, he was carded. Pedri has booked in each of his last three matches against Los Blancos.

The head-to-heads have been incredibly entertaining in recent seasons, and Barcelona won the last El Clasico 3-2. That was the Spanish Super Cup final, which took place in January, and it was one of the games of the season. After a relatively cagey start, Raphinha opened the scoring in the 36th minute, and then there were three goals in the space of four minutes during first half stoppage time. It was level going into the break, before Raphinha scored the decisive goal in the 73rd minute.

Despite there being five goals, both goalkeepers were exceptional - Joan Garcia racked up seven saves, while Thibaut Courtois finished the game with four to his name. Chances were freely available at both ends of the field. This selection has landed in eight of the last 10 El Clasicos, with exactly three goals in the two that didn't land this bet.

Lille v Monaco

Lille v Monaco is a big battle in the context of European places in France. For context:

3rd = UCL Spot
4th = UCL Qualifier
5th = UEL Spot
6th = Conference League Qualifier

Lille (fourth) can still qualify directly for the Champions League, as they're only two points from Lyon in third, but at the same time they are only four points ahead of Monaco in sixth. Not to add Rennes are sandwiched between them both. Anything could happen for these two sides, and this game is a six pointer in that context.

Monaco games have been great for goals this season, all of their last five have gone Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS, I see this being no different.

Lille: 2.22 yellow cards per game | 5.88 corners per game
Monaco: 2.13 yellow cards per game | 5.03 corners per game

Auxerre v Nice

Auxerre v Nice couldn't be more different than Lille v Monaco. Both of these sides are scrapping to avoid finishing in the relegation qualification spot (16th). Auxerre are in 16th at the moment, but would leapfrog Nice with a win due to them having +9 better goal difference.

Auxerre have found some good goalscoring form too, they've just won 3-1 against Angers, and put two past Lyon and Monaco in their matches before that. Nice have four draws from their last five, with four of those seeing 2+ Goals.

Auxerre: 2.09 yellow cards per game | 4.69 corners per game
Nice: 2.00 yellow cards per game | 5.06 corners per game

Le Havre v Marseille

Marseille are going through a tough patch and risk not qualifying for Europe this season, so this is a huge game for them to get back on track after only taking four points from a possible 15.

Le Havre on the other hand will want to avoid being dragged into a final day relegation fight, they're four points above 16th which means losing this game could mean they go into MD34 only one point above the drop zone whilst travelling to Lorient, which is tough.

Both sides have seen 2+ Goals land in their last five games, with Le Havre scoring in all of these games.

Le Havre: 1.84 yellow cards per game | 4.41 corners per game
Marseille: 2.28 yellow cards per game | 5.38 corners per game