Both league meetings between these sides this season have featured exactly three goals - Manchester City won 3-0 at the Etihad, and then snatched a late 2-1 victory over Liverpool at Anfield in their most recent clash.

I don’t trust either backline right now, and I think the expected rotation from both teams will open the game up rather than reduce the entertainment. Liverpool have seen three or more goals in both of their FA Cup matches this season, and their 16 away Premier League games have produced 48 goals (exactly 3.0 per game).

No side has scored more goals at home in the Premier League this season than Manchester City (36 goals, 2.4 per game), suggesting City could cover this line on their own - just like they did in the first meeting. City also have the advantage of a free week after this match, while Liverpool face PSG in the Champions League.

Chelsea return from the international break looking to end a run of four consecutive defeats, which saw them crash out of the Champions League and dented their chances of finishing in a Champions League spot for next season.

There’s quite a lot of frustration around Stamford Bridge at the moment, both with the fans and the players, which should leak into the performance here. If Port Vale can stay in the game for even the first 25-30 minutes, you’re likely to see the Stamford Bridge crowd turn a little.

Chelsea have picked up at least one yellow card in all three of their FA Cup games so far this season, picking up 2+ cards in two of these games. All of these games have been against lower league opponents as well, suggesting that Chelsea’s general petulance which has stalked them for the last few seasons still applies against weaker sides.

Arsenal and corners are a natural match with how often the Gunners look to use corners as a weapon in their attacking arsenal. Arteta hasn’t moved away from utilising corners as an effective route to goal, despite some criticism about the antics that Arsenal players get up to in the box.

Arsenal saw 12 match corners in the last round of the FA Cup as they overcame Mansfield 2-1. Mansfield managed to register four corners themselves to create this corner count, and Southampton can contribute to a similar degree here to get us over the line we need for this FA Cup clash.

Southampton saw 19 match corners in their 1-0 win over Fulham in the last round of the FA Cup, with the Cottagers contributing with 15 of these. This would suggest that Arsenal can do the bulk of the work here when it comes to reaching this corner count, with Southampton topping up the tally with a few set piece situations themselves.

Manchester City don’t have many clinical finishers beyond Haaland, who dominates with 22 goals — 36% of their Premier League total. Only Semenyo has reached double figures for goals in the City squad other than Haaland, though most of those came for Bournemouth.

Foden is next with seven, but it’s clear Haaland and Semenyo are City’s biggest threats in front of goal. Semenyo is priced more generously for a shot on target here — he’s as short as 1.4 for a shot on target elsewhere so this is clear value given Semenyo’s strong shot on target record.

Only Haaland (19) has more non-penalty goals in the Premier League this season than Semenyo (14). He’s had 36 shots on target across 29 league starts, averaging 1.25 per 90. When the sides last met, he took three shots, with one finding the target.

I’m all over this boost personally, it’s great value. 

Both league meetings between these sides this season have featured exactly three goals - Manchester City won 3-0 at the Etihad, and then snatched a late 2-1 victory over Liverpool at Anfield in their most recent clash.

I don’t trust either backline right now, and I think the expected rotation from both teams will open the game up rather than reduce the entertainment. Liverpool have seen three or more goals in both of their FA Cup matches this season, and their 16 away Premier League games have produced 48 goals (exactly 3.0 per game).

No side has scored more goals at home in the Premier League this season than Manchester City (36 goals, 2.4 per game), suggesting City could cover this line on their own - just like they did in the first meeting. City also have the advantage of a free week after this match, while Liverpool face PSG in the Champions League.

Taking the Asian Goal line means that if that bet falls one goal short, the selection will be void.

Hoffenheim faced a real setback in their most recent assignment as they were hammered by Leipzig, losing 5-0 on the road which represents a massive blow to their chances of securing Champions League football with three sides currently battling for two remaining spots.

This situation makes this a very important game for Hoffenheim, more dropped points here could put them out of the race altogether - or encourage Leverkusen who are threatening to enter the race late on in the season. 

Hoffenheim have seen 43 goals across their 13 home games in the Bundesliga this season (3.30 per game), only Leipzig, Dortmund and Bayern Munich have scored more goals at home than Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga this term. 

Mainz managed to get on the scoresheet when these sides met earlier in the season and can contribute to the goal tally again having found the back of the net in four of their last five matches across all competitions.

Taking the Asian Goal line means that if that bet falls one goal short, the selection will be void.

Gaiziantep have contested some really exciting and end to end games of late, seeing 4+ goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions. They’ve conceded 4+ goals in two of these games, including their most recent assignment as they fell to a 4-1 defeat at the hands of Fenerbahce.

Their 13 home games in the Turkish Super Lig have produced 39 goals, working out to an average of exactly 3.0 goals per game. They take on a Alanyaspor side who have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, and have seen 36 goals across their 13 away games this term (2.76 per game). 

Interestingly, Gaziantep’s home record is pretty poor, which lines up with the struggles of Alanyaspor on the road this season. The away side have only managed to win one of their 13 away matches in the Turkish top flight this term, conceding 20 goals across these matches.

Taking the Asian Goal line means that if that bet falls one goal short, the selection will be void.

Gary O’Neil has settled in well at Strasbourg since replacing Liam Rosenior, losing just two of his 15 matches in charge. He’s currently posting his best ever win percentage as a manager (53% - 1.9 points per game).

Strasbourg are usually an entertaining side, and while they’ve had a few 0-0 draws lately, that’s been more about how opponents set up than any lack of attacking intent. They’ve avoided defeat in 10 of their 13 home Ligue 1 games this season, with those matches averaging 2.30 goals per game (30 goals in total).

The most recent meeting between these sides was a 1-1 draw in January. Each of the last seven head-to-head clashes has seen 2+ goals, including a 2-2 draw when Nice visited Strasbourg last season.

Nice have conceded 27 goals across their 13 away Ligue 1 matches this term (2.07 per game), which suggests Strasbourg could contribute strongly to covering the over 2.5 goals line on their own.

Taking the Asian Goal line means that if that bet falls one goal short, the selection will be void.

Mallorca are battling at the bottom of LaLiga and currently find themselves one point from safety ahead of this difficult clash against a Madrid side chasing the LaLiga title. 

Mallorca have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 15 matches across all competitions, suggesting a real defensive vulnerability which can be exploited on a few occasions by the away side. 

Mallorca have seen 3+ goals in each of their last three games ahead of this clash, winning just one of these games - which was a home triumph against Espanyol. 

Real Madrid have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, winning all five of these games. They came away 2-1 winners over Mallorca when the sides met earlier in the season, and all three head to head meetings between the sides last year produced three or more goals.

Taking the Asian Goal line means that if that bet falls one goal short, the selection will void.

Excelsior welcome the most entertaining side to watch in Europe this season, promising goals in this encounter. Nijmegen’s approach to games is wild, but they’ve stuck with it all season and it’s been pretty successful - guiding them to third in the Eredivisie, just three points behind Feyenoord in second.

Nijmegen have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, in line with their incredibly positive style of play. Their most recent assignment produced four goals as they played out a 2-2 draw against Heerenveen at home. They put five goals past Excelsior without reply when the sides met earlier in the season, suggesting that Nijmegen could cover this line on their own.

Excelsior are in the relegation zone at the time of writing, but the race at the bottom of the Eredivisie is incredibly tight - with the playoff relegation spot further complicating matters. Excelsior have failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions. seeing 3+ goals in three of these games.

Taking the Asian Goal line means that if that bet falls one goal short, the selection will void.

Man City don’t actually have many clinical finishers. Haaland dominates in this metric with his 22 goals accounting for 36% of City’s total goals in the Premier League this season. Only Semenyo has entered double digits for goals in the Premier League in the City squad other than Haaland, with most of those goals coming for Bournemouth.

Foden is then the next top scorer on the list with seven goals to his name, but it’s clear that Haaland and Semenyo are City’s biggest shot and goal threats. Semenyo is priced a lot more generously for a shot on target here when compared to Haaland, you can back the Norwegian for a shot on target at 1.17, so taking 1.4 here for our Bet Builder is a much more appealing price, given Semenyo’s strong record in front of goal this term.

Only Haaland (19) has scored more non-penalty goals in the Premier League this season than Semenyo (14). He’s had 36 shots on target across his 29 Premier League starts this term, working out to an average of 1.25 shots on target per 90. He took three shots when the sides last met, as City claimed a 2-1 win over Liverpool, with one of those efforts finding the target.

Szoboszlai has easily been Liverpool’s best player this season, and I like backing him for shots because he isn’t afraid to take on speculative efforts.

I think Szoboszlai being a central player for Liverpool this season has improved his confidence and overall end product. He was already one of the hardest working players in the Liverpool side, but has added those extra bits of quality to his game which have taken him to a level just a tad below the world class tag.

Szoboszlai has taken 58 shots across his 29 starts in the Premier League this season (2.01 per 90), resulting in five goals for the Hungarian. He also has taken 29 shots across his 10 starts in the Champions League this term (2.95 per 90), netting five goals in the process. These goal tallies signify Szoboszlai’s best ever scoring season in a Liverpool shirt.

Szoboszlai scored and had three shots in the most recent meeting between these sides, despite lining up as a right back on that occasion. His role on free kicks can also help him get over this shot line, which is generously priced. 

I come back to this angle quite frequently when betting on Liverpool, mainly because Gravenberch is so consistent when it comes to winning fouls. 

One of his best traits is finding a way out of tight areas, he’s excellent at opening his body up to progress the ball through the thirds and although he has looked a little tired at times this season - he’s still maintained a solid record when it comes to winning fouls.

Gravenberch has drawn 36 fouls across his 29 Premier League appearances this term, working out to an average of 1.29 fouls won per 90. He was fouled five times by City in the most recent meeting between the sides from 63 touches, accounting for 31% of the total fouls that City committed in that game (16).

Gravenberch was also fouled once when City beat Liverpool 3-0 at the Etihad earlier in the campaign. If you want to stop Liverpool progressing through the thirds, stopping Gravenberch as often as possible is key, and this context should result in the Liverpool man being fouled at least once here.

Both league meetings between these sides this season have seen exactly three goals, with City coming away 3-0 winners in the clash at the Etihad and claiming a last gasp 2-1 victory over Liverpool at Anfield.

I don’t trust either of these backlines at the moment, and think that the expected rotation from both sides will lead to a more open game, rather than take away from the entertainment of the contest. Liverpool have seen 3+ goals in both of their FA Cup matches so far this season, and have seen 48 goals across their 16 away matches in the Premier League (3.0 per game). 

No side has scored more goals at home in the Premier League this season than City (36 - 2.4 per game) - they could cover this line on their own, as they did when the sides first met this term. Man City also have the luxury of having a free week after this game, while Liverpool take on PSG in the Champions League. 

Chermiti should lead the line for Rangers in their usual 4-2-3-1 formation in a match that could take them top of the league with a win, ahead of Hearts travelling to Livingston on Sunday.

He has found some form recently, scoring important goals including a hat-trick at home to Hearts in February and a brace against Celtic last month.

Chermiti has registered at least two shots in each of his last six Premiership appearances and has hit the target at least once in four of those games.

He has failed to record a shot in just one match he has started, and has only failed to hit the target in six of his starts.

This will be the third meeting between the sides this season. In their last meeting at Ibrox in October, Rangers had 29 shots with 8 on target. In the most recent encounter at Tannadice in December, they recorded 32 shots and 10 on target. Both matches finished 2-2.

Chermiti should have opportunities again here and will be expected to at least test the goalkeeper with the chances that come his way.

Motherwell will be looking to continue their push for a top-three finish with a home win against sixth-placed Falkirk.

They have been praised for their high-possession, attractive style under Jens Berthel Askou. That is reflected in the numbers, with Motherwell holding the second-highest average possession in the league and ranking fourth for total attempts on goal.

Within those numbers, Slattery ranks second in the Motherwell squad for total shots with 63, averaging 2.96 per 90. He has hit the target 22 times, giving him a shots on target rate of 1.03 per 90.

He has registered at least one shot in every match he has played this season and has only failed to hit the target in 10 of his 26 appearances.

The last meeting at Motherwell ended in a 2-1 win for Falkirk, although Motherwell dominated with 67 percent possession, 15 shots and 5 on target. Slattery was unavailable for that match.

Operating in his usual number 10 role, Slattery should see plenty of opportunities to shoot. With a 35 percent shot-to-target rate, the aim will be for him to register at least two shots on target to maximise the chances of landing the selection.

This is a huge game for several reasons. Stephen Robinson only left St Mirren to become Aberdeen manager last month, so this marks his return to his former club. It also has the feel of a relegation battle, with just three points separating Aberdeen in 9th, St Mirren in 10th and Kilmarnock in 11th.

With St Mirren now under interim manager Craig McLeish, it is unclear exactly how they will set up, but I would expect him to rely on Dan Nlundulu to start, either alongside Jake Young or Mikael Mandron.

Nlundulu has registered at least one shot in each of his last seven league matches and has hit the target in five of those. His average shots on target per 90 in the Premiership stands at 0.71.

He has been in and out of the team but has recently enjoyed a more consistent run of starts, although he rarely completes the full 90 minutes. Factoring in fresh legs, with either Young or Mandron coming on, adds further appeal, with those players averaging 1.11 and 0.82 shots on target per 90 respectively.

In the last meeting, a 3-3 draw in Aberdeen, St Mirren had 15 shots with 4 on target. However, in the last meeting at St Mirren, they managed just 1 shot on target from 10 attempts.

When playing away, Aberdeen’s recent shots on target conceded read: 7, 7, 2, 8, 9, 8, 7, 5, 10, an average of 7 per game across their last nine away matches.

I expect this to be an open game given the circumstances, and St Mirren should be able to register at least four shots on target. If so, and with the impact of fresh legs, Nlundulu looks well placed to deliver.

Gary O’Neil has been getting on pretty well at Strasbourg since stepping in to replace Liam Rosenior. He’s only lost two of his 15 matches in charge, and currently boasts his best ever win percentage as a manager (53% - 1.9 points per game).

Strasbourg are usually an entertaining side to watch, they’ve had a few 0-0 draws of late - but that’s more down to how their opponents have set up rather than Strasbourg being a dull watch. They’ve avoided defeat in 10 of their 13 home games in Ligue 1 this term, with these games producing 30 goals (2.30 per game).

The most recent meeting between these sides took place in January and ended in a 1-1 draw. Each of the last seven head to head meetings between the sides have produced 2+ goals, with Nice’s trip to Strasbourg last season ending in a 2-2 draw.

Nice have conceded 27 goals across their 13 away games in Ligue 1 this season (2.07 per game), suggesting that there could be room for Strasbourg to cover this line on their own.

The first league meeting between these two sides ended in a seven goal thriller, with Fortuna Sittard claiming a 4-3 win over Alkmaar. That match produced a combined xG of 5.44, setting the stage for another high scoring affair here with both teams still having plenty to play for.

Alkmaar currently sit sixth in the Eredivisie, but face a real fight to hold onto their spot in the Conference League playoff places, as both Heerenveen and Sparta Rotterdam are level on points with them heading into this fixture. Fortuna Sittard are also within striking distance - a win for the visitors would move them to within four points of Alkmaar.

Fortuna Sittard have seen both teams score in each of their last 13 matches across all competitions. The last side they failed to find the net against was Zwolle back at the end of 2025. This remarkable run suggests Sittard struggle to control games, but almost always carry an attacking threat, which makes it likely both sides will get on the scoresheet again here.

This is a pivotal game in the LaLiga title race, Real Madrid take on Mallorca a few hours before this game - and could cut the gap to Barcelona to just one point, making this a near must-win game for Hansi Flick’s side if they want to maintain their lead at the summit of LaLiga.

Barcelona have scored 31 goals across their 14 away games in LaLiga this season (2.21 per game), comfortably more than any other side in the division. Barcelona can’t really play any other way, Hansi Flick has them set up with an outrageous high line which naturally leads to Barcelona being involved in high scoring games.

Atletico Madrid have also opened up a bit this season, moving away from the low block stereotype that defines Simeone’s time at the club. This is shown through their recent matches, Atletico Madrid have conceded 2+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, interestingly managing to win two of these games.

Lens are the first team in some time to actually challenge PSG for the Ligue 1 title. They sit just one point behind the Parisians ahead of this clash, though PSG do have a game in hand on Lens so the away side can’t really afford to drop points here as a bit of daylight for PSG is likely to spell the end of their title charge.

Lens have scored in each of their last 21 matches across all competitions, the last team to keep them out were Metz all the way back at the end of October. This scoring run lines up quite nicely with Lille’s inability to keep a clean sheet at the moment - they’ve failed to keep the opposition out in each of their last five matches across all competitions.

Lens ran out 3-0 winners over Lille when these sides met earlier in the season, generating an xG of 3.54 from their 15 shots on that occasion. 

I think the criticism of Garnacho has gone quite far now, he’s definitely not been at the level he can reach this season but the smear against him is harsh and reflective of how reactive football has become.

Prior to joining Chelsea, Garnacho produced some of the best output of a young winger across Europe - only Lamine Yamal had more goal contributions for an U21 a few seasons ago, so it’s clear that Garnacho does have talent, he just needs to be platformed properly and given that confidence by a manager.

Garnacho has started all three of Chelsea’s games in the FA Cup this season, scoring one goal from 14 shots overall (4.27 per 90). Six of these attempts have found the target (1.83 per 90), showing the extent of Garnacho’s shot volume which has been high for a few seasons in the Premier League.

Despite being the international break, it’s been a busy week at Chelsea with both Enzo Fernandez and Marc Cucurella coming out with damning interviews about the state of the club, and casting doubt over their future.

Between those interviews, was a lesser reported statement by Moises Caicedo who claimed that he wants to become a ‘legend’ at Chelsea, and at least for now looks to be one of the few players stepping up into the leadership vacuum that is emerging at Chelsea.

Caicedo has won 40 fouls across his 25 starts in the Premier League this season (1.65 per 90). He’s won a further four fouls across his two starts in the FA Cup this season (2.40 per 90), and is naturally the player you have to stop if you want to stop Chelsea building through the thirds.

Chelsea return from the international break looking to end a run of four consecutive defeats, which saw them crash out of the Champions League and dented their chances of finishing in a Champions League spot for next season.

There’s quite a lot of frustration around Stamford Bridge at the moment, both with the fans and the players, which should leak into the performance here. If Port Vale can stay in the game for even the first 25-30 minutes, you’re likely to see the Stamford Bridge crowd turn a little.

Chelsea have picked up at least one yellow card in all three of their FA Cup games so far this season, picking up 2+ cards in two of these games. All of these games have been against lower league opponents as well, suggesting that Chelsea’s general petulance which has stalked them for the last few seasons still applies against weaker sides.

Port Vale’s main route to goal here is likely to be from set pieces. In Rosenior’s first game in charge of Chelsea, he took his side to face Charlton in the FA Cup. The Blues won that game 5-1, but conceded from a corner - which laid the precedent for Chelsea’s struggles when it comes to conceding from set pieces under Rosenior.

Port Vale are averaging 4.84 corners per game in League One this term, with this average dropping to 3.84 corners per game when away from home. This is obviously a massive step up in quality, but they’ll be aware of the issues going on at Chelsea behind the scenes - and the problems that Chelsea have had when defending set pieces. This issue stems from the fact that Chelsea don’t have many players to protect the box from these situations.

Chelsea allowed Wrexham to register eight corners during normal time in their 4-2 win over the Welsh side after the extra period. This example shows how Chelsea can still be vulnerable to a high corner count against lower league opponents, with this also representing the best route to goal for Port Vale.

Kai Havertz has returned to fitness at an important point in the season for Arsenal, and was one of the few Arsenal players who didn’t pull out of their international camp over the recent two week break.

Havertz scored over the international break with a goal against Ghana for Germany, which should give him confidence ahead of a busy end to the season for Arsenal with the Gunners still fighting on three fronts.

Havertz hasn’t featured that much at all this season, so we can use last season’s stats as a benchmark for him. Havertz netted nine goals across his 21 starts in the Premier League last season from 21 shots on target overall (1.01 per 90). 

Havertz maintained a similar level in the Champions League last term (1.12 shots on target per 90), netting four goals across his six starts. These numbers suggest that Havertz is a very useful player for Arsenal, and can give the likes of Gyokeres a rest in these sort of games as a reliable deputy.

I’ve been impressed with Shea Charles this season, and think he’s nearing a spot in the Premier League with the calibre of his performances for Southampton this season.

He is going to have more defensive duties than usual here with Arsenal likely to dominate the ball and draw fouls from Southampton’s midfield. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Max Dowman get a start here, both Eze and Odegaard are set to be sidelined for this clash which could open the door for the youngster following his strike against Everton last month.

Charles has committed 27 fouls across his 16 starts in the Championship this season (1.54 per 90), so we’re looking for a slight rise in his foul numbers this term - but that should come against the quality and dominance of this Arsenal side. 

Dowman started Arsenal’s most recent game in the FA Cup as they won away at Mansfield, drawing three fouls in his 77 minute cameo. This is a small sample size, but Dowman will grow to be a player that is reliable when it comes to winning fouls.

I expect Arsenal to rotate their side quite significantly for this clash, with multiple players set to be sidelined following a damaging international break for Arsenal when it comes to player fitness.

Arsenal also contest the first leg of their Champions League clash against Sporting next week, so that is likely to be the focus for Arteta. Arsenal rotated heavily for their win over Mansfield in the last round of the FA Cup, a clash that produced three goals as Arsenal came away 2-1 winners.

Southampton should be able to assist with the overall goal count here as well, they enter this game unbeaten across their last 14 matches and will be aware of the slim squad that the Gunners are currently operating with. 

Southampton have netted 29 goals across their 19 home matches in the Championship this term (1.52 per 90), suggesting that they can cause Arsenal problems and make the most of what is likely to be the thinnest squad Arteta is able to choose from this season.

Arsenal and corners are a natural match with how often the Gunners look to use corners as a weapon in their attacking arsenal. Arteta hasn’t moved away from utilising corners as an effective route to goal, despite some criticism about the antics that Arsenal players get up to in the box.

Arsenal saw 12 match corners in the last round of the FA Cup as they overcame Mansfield 2-1. Mansfield managed to register four corners themselves to create this corner count, and Southampton can contribute to a similar degree here to get us over the line we need for this FA Cup clash.

Southampton saw 19 match corners in their 1-0 win over Fulham in the last round of the FA Cup, with the Cottagers contributing with 15 of these. This would suggest that Arsenal can do the bulk of the work here when it comes to reaching this corner count, with Southampton topping up the tally with a few set piece situations themselves.