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Hoffenheim picked up their first Bundesliga win of the season last weekend, coming away with a 2-1 win against Stuttgart. After a difficult start, that result should provide some much-needed confidence ahead of this Europa League clash. The German side face Crete, and they come into this one as heavy favourites. 

Crete actually finished sixth in the Greek Super League last season, but they qualified to the competition after winning the Greek Cup. On paper, Hoffenheim have a much stronger side than Crete, so they will be confident that they can kick off their European campaign with a win. Hoffenheim finished fifth in the Bundesliga last season, and they will hope to re-discover those levels and kick on.

This is Bournemouth’s first ever experience of a European competition, so it may take the club some time to adapt to the standard and demands of European football - though we have seen the Premier League sides dominate this competition in recent seasons.

Bournemouth’s style of play hasn’t changed that much under Marco Rose, with the German boss wanting his side to press quite high and play with intensity - which are traits that Iraola had already installed in this Bournemouth side prior to his departure from the club to join Liverpool.

Bournemouth have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, only keeping a clean sheet against Lincoln in the EFL Cup during this spell. They travel to a Real Sociedad side who have also only kept one clean sheet across their last five matches, seeing BTTS in three of these games. 

Crystal Palace tasted defeat for the third time in the Premier League this season, even though we are only four games into the season. This time they did at least manage to find the back of the net twice, but the main concern has been their defensive structure. The Eagles have leaked chances, and have conceded at least twice in all four league matches up until this point. 

Lech Poznan will see that record, and be hopeful that they can cause an upset. The Polish side have been in better domestic form than Palace, picking up nine points from their opening four league games, with seven goals scored in that time. Over 2.5 goals has landed in three of their matches so far. 

Both sides carry plenty of threat going forward, but neither has looked convincing at the back of late.

Celtic come into this clash after a bruising 3-0 Old Firm defeat in the Scottish League Cup on Sunday. 

That means 6 of the hosts' 8 domestic matches this season have broken the over 2.5 goal barrier, along with both legs of their Champions League play-off against LASK Linz.

I think the Hoops have enough firepower to clear the over 2.5 goal line single-handedly here, but Ferencvaros should contribute too. 

The Hungarian heavyweights have scored at least twice in each of their last four domestic fixtures and beat Trabzonspor 5-0 on aggregate to reach the league phase. 

What’s more, 4 of the visitors’ opening six league games have featured over 2.5 goals, so the same selection looks worth supporting at Celtic Park.

Patrik Walemark has been one of Lech Poznan’s best players this season, registering 10 goal contributions across 14 starts - including netting four goals across three starts for Lech Poznan during their qualifying campaign.

Walemark took six shots across those three starts (1.92 per 90), which is a record that is supported by his record domestically at the start of this campaign - Walemark has taken 16 shots across his six starts in the Ekstraklasa, working out to an average of 2.91 shots per 90.

Crystal Palace are still adapting to the style and demands of Pierre Sage, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Lech Poznan have some chances in this Europa League clash. 

Walemark’s record in Europe and domestically makes the 1.80 on offer for him to have 2+ shots here a really attractive price, he’s also available at 2.0 for a shot on target if you were looking at another way to back the 24-year-old here.

Tavernier’s data so far this season is superb. He’s already netted three Premier League goals and averaged a hefty 2.06 shots on target per 90, which comes from averaging some good shot volume at 3.34 per 90 minutes.

He’s developed into a top level attacking threat, willing to take on strikes from range as well as crashing the box late.

Tavernier also takes free-kicks from Bournemouth and will have a go from nearly any distance and angle.

Sociedad haven’t been great defensively this season and have allowed opponents an average of 14.83 shots per 90 minutes.

Sociedad have excelled in the corner markets so far this season. They’ve averaged 7.67 per match, rising to 9.00 when playing at home.

They’ve had at least seven corners in all of their home games so far. We only need four here.

Bournemouth do ship a few, too. They’ve conceded at least four in each of their Premier League away matches and have conceded an average of five per match, rising to six when playing away from home.

The hosts will try and keep hold of the ball and build chances, so they should see some sustained spells of pressure that lead to corners.

Probably not a player you think of right away when you’re looking for someone to draw fouls, but Adam Smith has been excellent at this so far this season.

The 35 year-old right-back has been fouled six times, an average of 1.50 per 90 minutes in the Premier League, making him Bournemouth’s third most fouled player.

He’s been fouled in three out of four matches and drew three against Manchester City on opening day.

He’s also very consistent for minutes. He’s played every second of Bournemouth’s Premier League campaign up to this point.

Bournemouth are exceptional going forward, but have become a side associated with letting leads slip and conceding soft goals.

BTTS has landed in each of their four Premier League matches so far, so this selection has of course landed in all too - and three of those matches have seen over 2.5 goals, with each of their last two finishing 2-2.

Sociedad Matches have seen an average of 2.63 goals in La Liga, with four of their six paying out on over 1.5 goals. Their last two have seen eight match goals scored.

I’m really surprised to see Nijmegen priced at 10/1 outsiders to claim all three points here, I do make Juventus favourites - but not by that margin, making BTTS an appealing angle to look at.

Nijmegen enjoyed a really positive season last year, finishing third in the Eredivisie and seeing BTTS more often than any other side across Europe’s top five divisions. This outcome is a result of Nijmegen being very bold in their approach, sending floods of players forward as often as possible.

Juventus have seen BTTS in each of their last two matches ahead of this clash, conceding three goals against Sassuolo last time out. Nijmegen have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, seeing BTTS in three of these games. 

This is Bournemouth’s first ever experience of a European competition, so it may take the club some time to adapt to the standard and demands of European football - though we have seen the Premier League sides dominate this competition in recent seasons.

Bournemouth’s style of play hasn’t changed that much under Marco Rose, with the German boss wanting his side to press quite high and play with intensity - which are traits that Iraola had already installed in this Bournemouth side prior to his departure from the club to join Liverpool.

Bournemouth have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, only keeping a clean sheet against Lincoln in the EFL Cup during this spell. They travel to a Real Sociedad side who have also only kept one clean sheet across their last five matches, seeing BTTS in three of these games. 

Marseille have endured quite a poor start to the campaign, most recently losing 1-0 to Rennes on the road as they attempt to shift away from the direction set for the club by Roberto De Zerbi, who is now at Tottenham.

Marseille have only kept one clean sheet so far this season, with that shutout coming against Strasbourg - they have lost the three games since that victory, conceding 2+ goals in two of these matches. 

Besiktas enter this clash in better form having won each of their last three matches, seeing BTTS in two of these games. They’ve only kept one clean sheet across their last five games, which is a record that should encourage Marseille. 

Besiktas only lost four games at home domestically last season, but did concede 20 goals across their 17 matches and this opening game of their Europa League campaign looks good for goals at both ends. 

Crystal Palace are clearly still adapting to the style and demands of Pierre Sage, but should have an opportunity to gain some momentum and confidence here as they kick off their Europa League campaign.

One thing which has become quite obvious over the last few years is just how strong the Premier League sides are in the Europa League and Conference League. Palace obviously won the Conference League last season, so they now have European experience which will aid them in the Europa League and I can only see their home games going one way.

Lech Poznan have done very well to qualify for the Europa League, but this does look like an uphill battle for a side that competed in the Conference League last year - and lost to Gornik Zabrze over the weekend, hindering their preparations for this clash.

I’m really surprised to see Nijmegen priced at 10/1 outsiders to claim all three points here, I do make Juventus favourites - but not by that margin, making BTTS an appealing angle to look at.

Nijmegen enjoyed a really positive season last year, finishing third in the Eredivisie and seeing BTTS more often than any other side across Europe’s top five divisions. This outcome is a result of Nijmegen being very bold in their approach, sending floods of players forward as often as possible.

Juventus have seen BTTS in each of their last two matches ahead of this clash, conceding three goals against Sassuolo last time out. Nijmegen have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, seeing BTTS in three of these games. 

Both sides carry plenty of threat going forward, but neither has looked convincing at the back of late.

Celtic come into this clash after a bruising 3-0 Old Firm defeat in the Scottish League Cup on Sunday. 

That means 6 of the hosts' 8 domestic matches this season have broken the over 2.5 goal barrier, along with both legs of their Champions League play-off against LASK Linz.

I think the Hoops have enough firepower to clear the over 2.5 goal line single-handedly here, but Ferencvaros should contribute too. 

The Hungarian heavyweights have scored at least twice in each of their last four domestic fixtures and beat Trabzonspor 5-0 on aggregate to reach the league phase. 

What’s more, 4 of the visitors’ opening six league games have featured over 2.5 goals, so the same selection looks worth supporting at Celtic Park.

I’m expecting a big response from Celtic after Sunday’s 3-0 hammering by Rangers. 

With the Parkhead crowd demanding a reaction, the Hoops should come flying out of the traps, making them worth backing to earn 6+ corners on Thursday night.

Moreover, Celtic have long been strong corner performers, and this season has been no different. 

Indeed, Martin O’Neill's men have averaged a whopping 9.67 corners per game in the Scottish Premiership this term, clearing the 6+ line in every match. 

Celtic also racked up 8 corners at home to LASK Linz in the first leg of their Champions League play-off.

Ferencvaros had to defend 7 flag kicks away at Trabzonspor in their Europa League play-off tie, and I expect Celtic to keep them just as busy at Parkhead.

Haissem Hassan looks well placed to attempt 2+ shots against Ferencvaros on Thursday night.

The Egyptian is very direct and needs little invitation to try his luck when an opening presents itself. 

He has started each of Celtic’s last three Scottish Premiership matches and racked up 10 shots across those games, attempting at least 2 on each occasion.

Hassan also got a shot away after coming off the bench against Rangers on Sunday, cutting in from the right wing and letting fly with his preferred left foot, as he so often does.

He looks likely to return to the starting XI on Thursday night and should give the Ferencvaros back line plenty to think about.

The Hungarian side conceded 24 shots away at Trabzonspor in their Europa League play-off tie, which only strengthens the case for Hassan to pull the trigger at least twice.

Camilo Duran has been the standout performer among Celtic's summer signings so far, and I'm backing him to score or assist against Ferencvaros on Thursday night.

Duran is clinical in front of goal, capable of a moment of magic from distance, and has already proven he can turn provider too.

That is underlined by the fact that the Colombian has already racked up an impressive 6 goals and 3 assists in 10 appearances for Celtic across all competitions.

His most eye-catching display came in Celtic's last European home game, when he struck twice against LASK Linz in a Champions League first leg play-off tie.

Ferencvaros have failed to keep a clean sheet in 2 of their last 3 Hungarian league games, so the Hoops ace looks a prime candidate to have a hand in a goal at Parkhead.

Obviously, Palace are heavy favourites at around 1.40 in most places, but Lech will cause them some problems.

I’ve been woefully unimpressed with The Eagles so far this season and they did have some struggles early on in their Conference League campaign last season.

They lost to Larnaca in the league phase and drew with Finnish minnows KuPS and squeezed past Larnaca again in the knockouts, similarly with Zrinjski.

Walermark has averaged just shy of three shots per 90 minutes domestically and has been in excellent form in Europe, including netting twice in just 36 minutes in the 7-0 drubbing of Thun.

Walemark has a lovely left-foot and likes an effort from range, he’s also an option for direct free-kicks.

With the arrival of Quentin Timber, Kamada has stepped forward into more of a number 10 role for Palace, and he’s been brilliant.

We’re in this for fouls drawn so let’s look at those numbers. The Japanese international has drawn an average of 1.54 fouls per 90 minutes in the Premier League.

He’s drawn at least one foul in every game he’s played this season, even when playing just 32 minutes in the cup against Middlesbrough.

He drew 1.33 fouls per 90 minutes in the Premier League last season and 1.53 in the Conference League.

Timber has slotted in nicely to the Palace midfield and I think that signing has definitely improved them, as Kamada is better in the support role than the likes of Nketiah.

Timber has drawn an average of 2.22 fouls per 90 minutes in his brief stint in the Premier League, he’s been fouled five times across three appearances. He also drew a foul in the 45 minutes he played for Marseille this season.

Timber drew 1.63 fouls per 90 minutes for Marseille last season and his prior seasons in France and Holland he drew - 1.03, 1.74, 1.96, 1.43 and 1.65, spanning his seasons across top flight football.

The Spanish midfielder committed a foul in both legs of the games against AGF and Thun. He did blank against Klaksvik, but that was somewhat of a non-contest as Poznan dominated their weaker opponents.

Rodriguez’s position of course matches him up against the aforementioned midfielders in Timber and Kamada, who have drawn an average of 3.76 fouls per 90 between them. There’s also Adam Wharton, who’s drawn 2.11 per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season.

It’ll be a tough evening for Rodriguez, I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes over this line.

Chelsea are without a clean sheet across their last 20 Premier League matches.

It’s an issue that’s been present for far longer than Xabi Alonso’s tenure, with Chelsea lacking defensive structure ahead of a trip to a ground where they have historically struggled.

Brentford have made a strong start to the campaign having avoided defeat across their opening four Premier League matches. They’ve scored seven goals across these games, seeing BTTS in each of their last five matches.

This fixture last season produced four goals as Brentford claimed a point against Chelsea in a 2-2 draw. I can’t see Chelsea shoring up their backline ahead of this clash, though they do have the attacking quality to get on the scoresheet. 

Morgan Rogers has made a strong start since signing for Chelsea, registering seven goal contributions across just six appearances - including a goal or an assist in each of his last four matches.

He’s taken 11 shots across his four starts in the Premier League so far (2.84 per 90), seeing four of these efforts find the target (1.03 per 90). 

He’s gelling well with Palmer and Pedro, who are both priced shorter than Rogers for a shot on target in this game - despite Rogers having a pretty similar record so far this season. 

Chelsea have had the joint most shots on target of any side in the Premier League so far this season (6.0 per game) and I’d expect Alonso’s front three to have more attacking success in this clash.

Brentford are very smart with their transfer business, often picking up players who are specialists in a particular area and maximising their strengths alongside other players that big clubs may overlook.

Diouf fits perfectly into this category, he was one of West Ham’s better performers last season and is particularly strong when it comes to crossing - creating 29 chances and recording five assists across just 30 starts from left back.

I’m looking at him in a slightly different area here, his impressive delivery often sees him given licence to push forward but that does put him at risk of committing tactical fouls. He committed 28 fouls for West Ham last season, working out to an average of 0.93 fouls committed per 90.

He’ll be up against Cole Palmer (1.27 fouls won per 90) and Pedro Neto - who looks a much better player operating from wingback in Alonso’s 3-4-3 shape. I can see Diouf being caught high at times and needing to commit tactical fouls to stop Chelsea’s devastating front three.

I’ve watched Emi Martinez quite closely over the last few weeks and come to the conclusion that he’s not a massive upgrade on Rob Sanchez.

That might sound crazy, but it was quite simple to put all of Chelsea’s issues down to one player - this is a side that hasn’t kept a clean sheet in 20 Premier League matches, the wider defensive structure is just as much to blame as Sanchez.

Martinez has played three games for Chelsea so far and has had to make 3+ saves in all of these matches - even against Hull at Stamford Bridge last time out. He was forced into making eight saves in Chelsea’s most recent away game against Arsenal.

The lack of protection afforded to Martinez at the moment is slowly being unearthed as the real issue with Chelsea’s backline. Sanchez did make mistakes, but Martinez has got those in him as well - any keeper that Chelsea field at the moment is going to have to get through a lot of work.

Brentford rank fourth for expected goals and are averaging 4.30 shots on target per game in the Premier League, they have enough quality to cause Martinez issues. 

Chelsea are without a clean sheet across their last 20 Premier League matches.

It’s an issue that’s been present for far longer than Xabi Alonso’s tenure, with Chelsea lacking defensive structure ahead of a trip to a ground where they have historically struggled.

Brentford have made a strong start to the campaign having avoided defeat across their opening four Premier League matches. They’ve scored seven goals across these games, seeing BTTS in each of their last five matches.

This fixture last season produced four goals as Brentford claimed a point against Chelsea in a 2-2 draw. I can’t see Chelsea shoring up their backline ahead of this clash, though they do have the attacking quality to get on the scoresheet. 

Rapid Wien have made a really strong start to the season, winning five of their opening six matches and netting 18 goals in the process.

They’ve won all three of their games at home this term, conceding just one goal across these matches. 12 of their 18 goals have also come in front of their own fans, suggesting that they will be the dominant force here.

Rapid Wien emerged as 4-1 winners when these sides met in this fixture last season, recording an xG of 2.42 from 15 shots to Tirol’s 0.36 xG from just four efforts.

No side saw BTTS more often than Monaco in Ligue 1 last season, seeing goals at both ends in nearly 70% of their matches.

They’ve seen BTTS in each of their last two matches ahead of this clash against Strasbourg and PSG, with only two clean sheets in their six matches across all competitions.

Both league meetings between these sides last season saw BTTS, with the most recent meeting producing five goals as Monaco came away 3-2 winners over Lens with both sides posting a healthy xG (1.79-1.70).

Lens have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, most recently contesting a 2-2 draw against a newly promoted Le Mans side on the road. 

Groningen have made a hectic start to the season, winning two of their opening six matches and seeing 25 goals across these games (4.16 per game).

They’ve seen BTTS in all six of these matches, most recently earning a point on the road against Go Ahead Eagles in a 1-1 draw but not without conceding an xG of 3.50 from 25 shots.

Zwolle conceded seven goals at home against Feyenoord last time out, winning just one of their opening six matches. They held Groningen to two draws in the Eredivisie last season, with BTTS landing in both matches.

The most recent clash between the sides saw both teams register an xG of 2.0 or higher (2.55-2.48), suggesting that this will be a meeting that produces chances at both ends.

Chelsea are without a clean sheet across their last 20 Premier League matches.

It’s an issue that’s been present for far longer than Xabi Alonso’s tenure, with Chelsea lacking defensive structure ahead of a trip to a ground where they have historically struggled.

Brentford have made a strong start to the campaign having avoided defeat across their opening four Premier League matches. They’ve scored seven goals across these games, seeing BTTS in each of their last five matches.

This fixture last season produced four goals as Brentford claimed a point against Chelsea in a 2-2 draw. I can’t see Chelsea shoring up their backline ahead of this clash, though they do have the attacking quality to get on the scoresheet. 

Cole Palmer is back to his best and looks much sharper than he did last season, with his performances aided by a more free role under Xabi Alonso which allows him to be a bit more involved all over the pitch.

Palmer has registered seven goal contributions across his eight appearances already this season, hitting double digits for either goals or assists in each of his previous three seasons at Chelsea. 

Even last year, Palmer came away with 19 goal contributions across 40 appearances in what was widely regarded as a below par season for Chelsea’s number 10. He’s got Rogers and Pedro supporting him now too, setting up the latter against Hull at Stamford Bridge last time out.

Thistle Nil rates 9.0 on Racing Ratings, and there's a genuinely unusual story behind that number: this is a horse the market has badly underestimated twice already this year.

He broke his duck at Ayr on 19 June, winning a Class 5 restricted maiden over 6f on soft ground - at 200/1. He beat Star With Purpose and Brash by a head in an eight-runner field where Tide Runner was the 85/40 favourite and Stoneacre Joe was 9/4.

He did it again on 21 August at Hamilton, taking a 5f 7y handicap on good to soft at 40/1, winning by a neck in a blanket finish where the first four were separated by three necks. Jim Goldie's own account described it as a cracking ride from Rhys Elliott, and it completed a double for the yard on the night.

Two wins from seven career starts is a 29% strike rate for a lightly raced four-year-old. Both came under Rhys Elliott, who keeps the ride, he is two from two on this horse. And both came at Scottish tracks, which is Goldie's heartland; the yard is based near Glasgow and Ayr, Hamilton and Musselburgh are where their horses do their winning.

The Ayr angle matters most today. This is where he got off the mark, and he handles the surface here.

Thistle Nil rates 9.0 on Racing Ratings, and there's a genuinely unusual story behind that number: this is a horse the market has badly underestimated twice already this year.

He broke his duck at Ayr on 19 June, winning a Class 5 restricted maiden over 6f on soft ground - at 200/1. He beat Star With Purpose and Brash by a head in an eight-runner field where Tide Runner was the 85/40 favourite and Stoneacre Joe was 9/4.

He did it again on 21 August at Hamilton, taking a 5f 7y handicap on good to soft at 40/1, winning by a neck in a blanket finish where the first four were separated by three necks. Jim Goldie's own account described it as a cracking ride from Rhys Elliott, and it completed a double for the yard on the night.

Two wins from seven career starts is a 29% strike rate for a lightly raced four-year-old. Both came under Rhys Elliott, who keeps the ride, he is two from two on this horse. And both came at Scottish tracks, which is Goldie's heartland; the yard is based near Glasgow and Ayr, Hamilton and Musselburgh are where their horses do their winning.

The Ayr angle matters most today. This is where he got off the mark, and he handles the surface here.

Fiscal Policy rates 8.4 on Racing Ratings, and the case for him is one of the simplest in this batch: Pontefract is his track, and he has the wins to prove it.

He landed a 6f handicap here in the autumn of 2024, digging deep to beat eight rivals off a mark of 68, and he was back in the winner's enclosure at the same course on 8 June this year under Joanna Mason, winning by a length and three quarters.

Ruth Carr's own account of that one is the telling detail, he made the best of the worst draw and won with a bit to spare.

The Carr effect is worth noting too. He was a different animal once he joined the Huby yard, winning twice in four starts in his first half-season there and stepping up markedly on what he'd shown previously. At seven, with 51 runs behind him, he's a fully seasoned handicapper who knows exactly what the job entails.

Harry Vigors takes the ride, and his claim is useful ballast against the 10st 2lb Fiscal Policy has to carry.

Dunfermline can continue their upturn in form by claiming victory away at Morton in the Scottish Championship on Saturday.

Having made a slow start, Neil Lennon’s side appear to be building some momentum after avoiding defeat in each of their last three league matches.

The Pars have picked up seven points during that run, recording two victories, including last weekend’s 2-0 success against Queen’s Park.

They will now view Saturday’s trip to Greenock to face bottom-of-the-table Morton as a prime opportunity to put another three points on the board.

The Ton are a club in turmoil both on and off the pitch and have taken just one point from their opening six league matches.

Three of their five defeats have come at home, including last weekend’s 4-1 hammering by Livingston, so an improving Dunfermline side look capable of collecting another three points at Cappielow.

I think Dundee can make life difficult for Motherwell on Saturday, which is why I’m backing the hosts to score at least once.

It has been a mixed start to the season for the Dark Blues, who have recorded two wins, one draw and three defeats.

However, Steven Pressley’s side have carried plenty of attacking threat, scoring in five of their six league games this season.

Their only blank came away at Celtic, with Dundee finding the net in each of their last five league matches, including games against both Hibernian and Hearts.

They will certainly smell blood against a Motherwell side that have lost their last two league games and arrive at Dens Park following a 4-0 hammering at home to Aberdeen on Tuesday night.

The Steelmen also shipped three goals in a recent road game at St Mirren, further strengthening the case for Dundee to strike at least once on Saturday.

Starliner rates 8.1 on Racing Ratings, and he's a well-placed local runner at a track he knows intimately, for a Scottish yard operating on home turf at Ayr's biggest meeting.

The strongest line is the one that pairs him with today's jockey. William Pyle rode him at Ayr over a mile on 20 July and they finished second of nine at 11/1, on good to firm, a considerably better effort than his odds suggested and a clear step up on an eighth of ten over the same course and trip a fortnight earlier under a different rider. He wore a visor that day, and the headgear has coincided with his better work.

He's in reasonable order right now, too. His most recent outing was a third of seven, so he's holding his form rather than falling out of it, and at 9st 4lb he's got a light weight to carry.

Linda Perratt's yard is Ayrshire-based and this is very much her patch. Starliner has run at Ayr, Hamilton and Musselburgh repeatedly through the season, and he's a genuine course specialist rather than a horse shipped in for a punt.

Tarmonbarry Kid rates 8.1 on Racing Ratings, and he arrives at Ayr's biggest meeting of the year as a three-year-old moving in the right direction at exactly the right time.

His form figures read 535-6131. Three placed efforts as a juvenile without winning, then the light came on this season: two wins from four starts, including a victory last time out. He got off the mark over 7f 213y at Doncaster on 16 May, winning a fourteen-runner handicap on good to soft by three quarters of a length, and he has added another since.

OJ Orr keeps the ride, and the partnership is well established. Orr was aboard through the spring campaign and knows the horse. Richard and Peter Fahey are Malton-based with a long and successful history at this track, Fahey has the Ayr Gold Cup on his record, and they've clearly aimed this one at the meeting.

He's 7/2 and drawn 10, carrying 9st 9lb.

Fiscal Policy rates 8.4 on Racing Ratings, and the case for him is one of the simplest in this batch: Pontefract is his track, and he has the wins to prove it.

He landed a 6f handicap here in the autumn of 2024, digging deep to beat eight rivals off a mark of 68, and he was back in the winner's enclosure at the same course on 8 June this year under Joanna Mason, winning by a length and three quarters.

Ruth Carr's own account of that one is the telling detail, he made the best of the worst draw and won with a bit to spare.

The Carr effect is worth noting too. He was a different animal once he joined the Huby yard, winning twice in four starts in his first half-season there and stepping up markedly on what he'd shown previously. At seven, with 51 runs behind him, he's a fully seasoned handicapper who knows exactly what the job entails.

Harry Vigors takes the ride, and his claim is useful ballast against the 10st 2lb Fiscal Policy has to carry.

Thistle Nil rates 9.0 on Racing Ratings, and there's a genuinely unusual story behind that number: this is a horse the market has badly underestimated twice already this year.

He broke his duck at Ayr on 19 June, winning a Class 5 restricted maiden over 6f on soft ground - at 200/1. He beat Star With Purpose and Brash by a head in an eight-runner field where Tide Runner was the 85/40 favourite and Stoneacre Joe was 9/4.

He did it again on 21 August at Hamilton, taking a 5f 7y handicap on good to soft at 40/1, winning by a neck in a blanket finish where the first four were separated by three necks. Jim Goldie's own account described it as a cracking ride from Rhys Elliott, and it completed a double for the yard on the night.

Two wins from seven career starts is a 29% strike rate for a lightly raced four-year-old. Both came under Rhys Elliott, who keeps the ride, he is two from two on this horse. And both came at Scottish tracks, which is Goldie's heartland; the yard is based near Glasgow and Ayr, Hamilton and Musselburgh are where their horses do their winning.

The Ayr angle matters most today. This is where he got off the mark, and he handles the surface here.

Hamilton can heap more misery on Queen of the South by claiming all three points at home on Saturday. 

The visitors come into this clash bottom of the table and will have to pick themselves up off the canvas after suffering a crushing 8-0 defeat away at Ross County on Tuesday night.

That latest body blow means the Doonhamers have now come away empty-handed from five of their opening seven league games.

With confidence bound to be fragile, Hamilton can take advantage. 

The Accies are keeping pace with Ross County at the top of the table, sitting second and level on points with the Staggies.

Indeed, Darian MacKinnon’s men remain unbeaten after taking maximum points from five of their opening six league games, including victories in each of their last two.

Back the Accies to pile further pain on a beleaguered Queen of the South side.

Ross County have made a flying start to life in Scottish League One and should have too much for Cove Rangers on Saturday.

The Staggies sit top of the table after collecting 16 points from their opening six matches, winning five and drawing one.

Stuart Kettlewell’s side underlined their title credentials on Tuesday night by demolishing Queen of the South 8-0 in Dingwall.

That emphatic victory should send confidence soaring ahead of this weekend’s trip to Balmoral Stadium.

As for Cove, they sit second from bottom after losing four of their opening seven league games, including a 2-1 defeat at Montrose last weekend.

Paul Hartley’s side now face a Ross County squad built for Championship football, and that gulf in quality should ultimately tell.

Dunfermline can continue their upturn in form by claiming victory away at Morton in the Scottish Championship on Saturday.

Having made a slow start, Neil Lennon’s side appear to be building some momentum after avoiding defeat in each of their last three league matches.

The Pars have picked up seven points during that run, recording two victories, including last weekend’s 2-0 success against Queen’s Park.

They will now view Saturday’s trip to Greenock to face bottom-of-the-table Morton as a prime opportunity to put another three points on the board.

The Ton are a club in turmoil both on and off the pitch and have taken just one point from their opening six league matches.

Three of their five defeats have come at home, including last weekend’s 4-1 hammering by Livingston, so an improving Dunfermline side look capable of collecting another three points at Cappielow.

I fancy Falkirk to score at least once away at St Johnstone in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday.

John McGlynn has overseen a huge rebuilding job at the Falkirk Stadium over the summer, but there are signs that his new-look side are beginning to click into gear.

The Bairns will arrive at McDiarmid Park after claiming their first league win of the season with a well-deserved 2-1 victory over Hearts on Tuesday night.

Prior to that, they battled to a 1-1 draw away at Dundee United and pushed both Celtic and Rangers close in 2-1 defeats, notably finding the net at Celtic Park.

That midweek victory should have lifted spirits in the camp, so Falkirk look well placed to cause St Johnstone problems on Saturday.

The Saints have adapted reasonably well to life back in the top flight, collecting seven points from their opening six matches.

However, they have yet to keep a clean sheet, so the Bairns can make the net bulge at least once.

I think Dundee can make life difficult for Motherwell on Saturday, which is why I’m backing the hosts to score at least once.

It has been a mixed start to the season for the Dark Blues, who have recorded two wins, one draw and three defeats.

However, Steven Pressley’s side have carried plenty of attacking threat, scoring in five of their six league games this season.

Their only blank came away at Celtic, with Dundee finding the net in each of their last five league matches, including games against both Hibernian and Hearts.

They will certainly smell blood against a Motherwell side that have lost their last two league games and arrive at Dens Park following a 4-0 hammering at home to Aberdeen on Tuesday night.

The Steelmen also shipped three goals in a recent road game at St Mirren, further strengthening the case for Dundee to strike at least once on Saturday.

Cole Palmer is back to his best and looks much sharper than he did last season, with his performances aided by a more free role under Xabi Alonso which allows him to be a bit more involved all over the pitch.

Palmer has registered seven goal contributions across his eight appearances already this season, hitting double digits for either goals or assists in each of his previous three seasons at Chelsea. 

Even last year, Palmer came away with 19 goal contributions across 40 appearances in what was widely regarded as a below par season for Chelsea’s number 10. He’s got Rogers and Pedro supporting him now too, setting up the latter against Hull at Stamford Bridge last time out.

Fofana has already picked up one yellow card in the Premier League this season across his three appearances, and I think he’ll be in a real battle here with Igor Thiago.

Fofana has never quite managed to put together a run of form at Chelsea, but it does look like Xabi Alonso values his speed in his 3-4-3 shape - but Fofana has always been a bit petulant, like the majority of this young Chelsea squad.

Fofana collected five yellow cards and two red cards across just 20 Premier League appearances last season, averaging 1.41 fouls committed per 90. He also collected seven yellow cards across just 14 appearances the season prior, so this is a player who has always struggled with discipline.

Vitaly Janelt hasn’t traditionally been a player that I’ve kept an eye on for a high foul count, but he’s had loads of defensive work to get through this season in partnering Sangare who has been a standout performer for the Bees so far.

Janelt has committed nine fouls across his four starts in the Premier League this term (2.25 per 90), also averaging 13.8 defensive contributions per 90. Janelt only averaged 1.25 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League last season, so there has been a significant rise at the start of this campaign - suggesting that Janelt may have a slightly different role for Brentford this year.

There are plenty of players that Janelt may have to bring down here, Chelsea’s front three are all really strong when it comes to winning fouls and also all like to drop into pockets in midfield, which is the perfect area of the pitch to test Janelt and draw a few fouls from the German. 

Wrexham will be eager for a response following their 6-0 loss to West Ham last time out, which was their biggest ever defeat under Phil Parkinson.

The visit of Southampton is a testing one, but Wrexham will be drawn to the fact that the Saints have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last eight matches - only keeping one shutout so far this term, which came against Colchester in the EFL Cup.

Both league meetings between these sides last season saw BTTS, with Southampton coming away 5-1 winners in this fixture. That thrashing saw both sides record a healthy xG (1.25-2.35) and the meeting at St Mary’s saw similar underlying numbers (4.14-1.88). 

These two sides both earned promotion to the Eredivisie from the Eerste Divisie last season, and have struggled to match the quality of the division with Cambuur only winning one of their opening six matches - while Den Haag are yet to pick up three points, losing five of their six games.

There’s real defensive issues for both sides as well, Cambuur have conceded 18 goals across their six games so far (3.0 per game), and have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches - only keeping a shutout against Nijmegen last time out. They came away 2-1 winners when the sides last met, with that game seeing 30 shots.

Den Haag have also seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, only failing to score against Twente last time out during this run. They have conceded 16 goals across their six games (2.66 per game) and will surely be looking at this game as a must win given that it is likely to be a relegation six pointer. 

I think Alaves are at a really nice price here to get something from this game having avoided defeat in four of their six matches so far - netting 11 goals across these matches (1.83 per game).

Alaves scored in both head to head meetings between these sides in LaLiga last season, netting twice when the sides met back in May. They’ve scored in all but one of their league games so far this term, and face off against an Athletic Club side who have actually picked up three points fewer than their opponents, despite being favourites here.

Alaves rank sixth for expected goals in LaLiga, and are also averaging 5.20 shots on target per game. We are looking for them to find the back of the net just once here, which looks likely given how impressive they’ve been in forward areas so far this season.

Both of these sides have made decent starts to the campaign with both only losing one of their opening seven matches. 

The four point gap that exists between the teams is down to Birmingham being unable to kill off matches - drawing the joint most games of any side in the Championship (4). 

Middlesbrough saw four goals against Millwall last time out as they came from two goals down to earn a point in front of their own fans. They’ve seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches, seeing 24 goals in total across their seven Championship matches (3.42 per game).

This is an important game for Chris Davies, who is still under pressure as Birmingham boss - they’ve seen 19 goals across their seven Championship games this term (2.71 per game).

Simba's Pride has finished in the top five in 10 of his 12 career races (83%).

That hit rate improves to 88% over this distance, having made the top five in eight of nine.

He has finished in the top five in five of his last six races, doing so again would secure a place at nice odds.

Simba's Pride has shown his class in two wins this season and today's distance is a big positive.

This should be a competitive race, with even the favourite priced at 3.75, at the time of writing and drifting, and Simba's Pride looks a shrewd play to compete for the top positions given his performances this season.

Impartiality has finished in the top four in 13 of 20 career races (65%).

He's done so in 5/5 races over today's distance and in 8/12 (66%) of his races on these ground conditions.

He has come 2nd in each of his last four races, and has shortened of late - the second-favourite for the race at the time of writing.

Has finished in the top three in both of his previous runs at Ayr.

Current favourite, Wild Thoughts, has only won once in his last six races.

Sanafi Zabeel has finished in the top four in seven of his 10 career races, including five of his most recent six.

That hit rate of 70% actually improves to 75%, considering that Sanafi Zabeel has finished in the top four in six of his eight races over today's distance.

He's also come in the top four in five of his eight races on these ground conditions.

Sanafi Zabeel is an attractive horse in this 12-horse field, running on his favoured trip and for a stable, Jim Goldie, with a strong record and connection with the track.

He won in his second-to-last race, in mid-August, and that came over this distance so there's no qualms around his suitability ahead of this event.

They All Know Me has finished in the top four in nine of his 13 career races (69%).

That rate holds nicely to 60%, coming in the top four in six of 10 races over today's distance.

They All Know Me has finished in the top four in each of his last two starts, coming 2nd last time out and he won in Carlisle earlier this year.

David Nolan, the jockey from They All Know Me's last win, is back in the saddle for this race.

Riding the third-favourite at the time of writing, who has shortened of late as well.

Zak Sturge has picked up one yellow card so far this season and will have the near impossible task of trying to keep Jarrod Bowen quiet here.

Sturge collected eight yellow cards and one red card across 29 starts in the Championship last season, averaging 1.29 fouls committed per 90 and 6.51 defensive contributions per 90. 

I think Alex Neil will have a specific plan in place for Bowen, he’s already registered seven goal contributions this season so it’s clear that he’s West Ham’s biggest attacking threat - and he’s also strong when it comes to winning fouls.

Bowen has won eight fouls so far this term (1.16 per 90), and was fouled 49 times in the Premier League last season (1.30 per 90). Sturge is bound to have multiple 1v1 duels with West Ham’s star man, and the occasion should see the bar set pretty low for cautions.

I’ve been impressed with Mukasa in the Championship so far, he’s started five games and has collected one yellow card across these matches.

I think Mukasa may get drawn into the occasion here, he’s only 19 and will line up in central midfield - putting him right at the heart of the action in what is expected to be an intense and aggressive match.

Mukasa didn’t feature much for Leicester in the Championship last season, but did collect one yellow card across his 10 starts - as well as collecting two cards across seven starts in the development division.

I expect Millwall to set up in a similar fashion to their draw against Middlesbrough last time out, looking to make the most of transition and benefit from the speed of Arconte - who could cause West Ham real issues when the home side can counter.