TAKE NO CHANCES has the potential to finish runner-up to Wodhooh, given her profile. She appears to be a classic improver on spring ground, with her trainer arriving in top form.

She ran third behind Lossiemouth in this last season – clearly appreciating the track – and was only eight lengths behind Wodhooh at Aintree last term, which may be good enough to place here, if replicating.

MA SHANTOU holds outstanding each-way credentials, following her superb course record. He has won three times from four runs at the track – all coming over this staying distance. His upward trajectory was clearly evident, when a seven-length scorer of the Cleeve Hurdle.

Dominant winners of that race have gone on to land this prize – including stablemate Paisley Park and Thistlecrack. The selection is almost guaranteed to run his race and stay on strongly, when it matters most.

HEART WOOD may be able to pick up the pieces, by following Fact To File home in second, just like he did last season. That excellent Cheltenham festival form should count for plenty, and he now has bundles of chasing experience. His runs this season have been promising, too.

He has scored in a brace of Grade Three Chases, notably on decent ground, too, which is anticipated on Thursday. I wouldn’t discount him for a placing, with a few of his rivals not usually seen to best effect at this track.

BOLD ENDEAVOUR is seriously well handicapped on old form. The Nicky Henderson-trained runner is a whopping 13lb lower than when fourth in this race two years ago. His form had tailed off completely for his former trainer, but the switch back to Henderson may have turned him around here.

A recent pipe opener for this was a good third at Huntingdon, where he showed much more spark about himself. I’m hoping that a return to Cheltenham can further improve his form, in what is obviously an extremely competitive event.

JERIKO DE REPONET has been highly discussed and favoured, in the build up to Cheltenham 2026. It’s no surprise, given his connections and quiet performances over fences thus far, compared to the peak of his excellent hurdle runs. He ran a solid second behind a subsequent Grade Two winner at Kempton to begin this season.

Next, was a sympathetic ride behind his sole rival at Wincanton. I think his handicap mark was being protected when downfield in Graded action at Warwick last time. His mark of 145 looks lenient, judged on his 149 hurdle rating, and I’m convinced he’ll go close – especially with cheekpieces returning (a win and second sporting them last term).

Although it very much depends on what Fact To File turns up today in the Ryanair, 2.75 is too good a price to let go, and on his day, he should win this race easily.

Granted he is not as consistent as he used to be, but he is still a top-class chaser, and his performance last month at Leopardstown fills you with confidence. Looking like the 2024 Fact To File when winning the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup last month, Gaelic Warrior was unable to lay a finger on him when finishing five lengths behind, and a follow-up performance looks on the cards today.

Unbeaten from two starts at Cheltenham, he clearly loves the track and given he is looking to win this race for the second year in a row, 2.75 looks too good a price ignore.

A previous course and distance scorer in the Martin Pipe last year, Wodhooh’s form over hurdles is seriously impressive, winning eight of her last nine appearances and only losing to Lossiemouth in the Aintree Hurdle in April.

No disgrace in losing to Lossiemouth, who just bolted up in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday, this only boosts her form figures and considering she ran a cracker at Leopardstown in preparation for this in December, she is going to be tough to stop.

Beating today’s rival Feet Of A Dancer by just over two lengths and given she had to give weight away, this was an impressive performance. Back racing on a level playing field today, she is going to be tough to stop, especially with her main market rival Jade De Grugy racing over fences of late and returning to hurdles for the first time in 10 months.

Morgan Rogers has been brilliant at times for Aston Villa this season, though I do think he could be more consistent. There are games in which Rogers drifts and doesn’t really impose himself in the way a player of his quality could - and his recent form reflects that, as well as playing into the pricing of this angle.

Rogers has taken eight shots across his five starts in the Europa League this season (1.49 per 90), with four of these efforts hitting the target (0.75 per 90). I wouldn’t read too much into this record, as Aston Villa managed to secure their progression to the knockout stages quite easily, leading to Unai Emery chopping and changing the squad constantly.

A more reliable data set to look at is Rogers’ shot and shots on target numbers in the Premier League. No Villa player has scored more goals in the Premier League this season than Morgan Rogers (8), with the attacker achieving this tally from 66 shots (2.29 per 90), seeing 27 of these attempts find the target (0.94 per 90).

Samsunspor eased past North Macedonian side Shkendija in the previous round, winning 5-0 on aggregate. After securing a 1-0 win in the first leg, Samsunspor showed no mercy in the return fixture, and they won 4-0 on home turf.

The Turkish side have lost just one of their last six matches, with five clean sheets in that time. They tend to keep things tight at the back, and Samsunspor have only conceded 12 goals in their 12 home matches in the Turkish Super Lig this season. 

Vallecano also haven’t been a particularly enterprising side, and they are only averaging 2.23 goals per game in La Liga this season. However, eight of their ten league losses this season have come on the road, which shows how Vallecano tend to struggle in their away matches. It’s a long trip to Turkey for them midweek, and they will probably be satisfied with a draw. 

Freiburg were involved in a six-goal thriller last time out, as it finished 3-3 against Bayer Leverkusen.

Freiburg currently sit outside of the European spots in eighth, which is largely due to their poor away form - the German side have won just two of their 13 league matches, with 27 goals conceded in that time. Freiburg have been more convincing in the Europa League, and they finished seventh in the league phase to secure automatic progression to the round of 16. 

Genk’s run was a bit more turbulent, but they were able to edge past Dinamo Zagreb in the playoff round. Despite taking a 3-1 lead from the first leg, Dinamo Zagreb were able to level the scores in the second leg and take the tie to extra time.

The visitors seemed to run out of steam for the additional period, and Genk were able to capitalise with two goals. Neither side have been particularly convincing at the back this season, which makes goals a target. 

Mainz were able to snatch a point against Stuttgart in their last league outing, as Danny Da Costa scored in the 91st minute to level the scores at 2-2.

Mainz have now failed to win any of their last four matches, and they are 14th in the Bundesliga, just two points off the relegation spots. The German side have been much more convincing in the Conference League, and they come into this round of 16 clash as heavy favourites, but their defensive issues are hard to ignore. 

Sigma Olomouc will want to try and take a positive result to the second leg in Germany, so they should be attack-minded. BTTS has landed in seven of their eight Conference League matches this campaign, including both playoff games against Lausanne.

Sigma Olomouc can be effective going forward, but Mainz should be able to take advantage of their defensive structure. 

Ferencvaros were able to complete the comeback against Ludogorets in the previous round to book their spot in the Europa League round of 16.

After trailing 2-1 in the first leg, the Hungarian side held on to a 2-0 win at home in the second leg. However, they have been dealt a tough draw for the round of 16, as they will face Sporting Braga. 

The Portuguese side finished sixth in the league phase, meaning they didn’t have to contest a playoff match. Braga boasted a record of five wins, two draws, and one loss from their Europa League matches so far, with the one defeat coming against Genk. However, Braga managed 2.55 xG to Genk’s 1.09 xG, so it was an unfortunate result.

Still, Braga went unbeaten in their four away matches in Europe, with just one goal conceded in those games. They should look to keep things tight here, hoping to take a positive result into the second leg. 

Morgan Rogers has been brilliant at times for Aston Villa this season, though I do think he could be more consistent. There are games in which Rogers drifts and doesn’t really impose himself in the way a player of his quality could - and his recent form reflects that, as well as playing into the pricing of this angle.

Rogers has taken eight shots across his five starts in the Europa League this season (1.49 per 90), with four of these efforts hitting the target (0.75 per 90). I wouldn’t read too much into this record, as Aston Villa managed to secure their progression to the knockout stages quite easily, leading to Unai Emery chopping and changing the squad constantly.

A more reliable data set to look at is Rogers’ shot and shots on target numbers in the Premier League. No Villa player has scored more goals in the Premier League this season than Morgan Rogers (8), with the attacker achieving this tally from 66 shots (2.29 per 90), seeing 27 of these attempts find the target (0.94 per 90).

I love coming to this selection when it’s at this price. Usually, Konsa can drop to around 1.17-1.2 to win a foul, and he’s incredibly consistent in this department. It’s not common for centre-backs to be so strong when it comes to winning fouls, but Konsa is mainly due to how Aston Villa like to play.

Konsa is having around 72 touches per 90 in the Premier League this season, suggesting that he is trusted with the ball at his feet - and is the player who can build the play for Villa from the back. This has led to Konsa winning 32 fouls across his 28 starts in the Premier League this season (1.15 per 90).

If we crossover to the Europa League, Konsa has drawn a remarkable 12 fouls across his four starts in the competition (2.61 per 90). This increase further suggests that this is a reasonable price as part of our bet builder for Konsa to win at least one foul. I’d also consider looking at higher lines for Konsa here, given the slight increase we see in his foul won numbers when looking at his Europa League involvements this season.

Another angle always worth taking a look at when Villa play is for their opponents to commit fouls. 

Villa have drawn more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of around 13 fouls won per game. Villa also topped this metric last season, so it clearly is a consistent part of their game, which should remain the case in this last 16 tie.

Lille are averaging 11.6 fouls committed per game in Ligue 1 this season, with this metric staying pretty consistent when looking at their foul numbers in the Europa League this term (11.4 per game). 

Aston Villa almost always force a rise in the average foul numbers of their opponents, and I think that’s been factored into the pricing of this market - the line for Lille fouls is set at 13 in this match, so the bookies are also expecting a slight increase in the number of fouls that Lille commit in this clash.

There has been a lot of talk about Villa and data this season, mainly because Unai Emery’s side were going against pretty much every data and xG model in the early parts of the season, but appear to have dipped back to the mean across recent weeks.

One lesser-noted outcome from this data has been the performance of Emi Martinez. We know he is a top keeper, even if he does have a rash moment in him, but he’s been operating at a really high standard this season. Only Donnarumma (73.6%) has maintained a higher save percentage in the Premier League than Emi Martinez (73.5%), and the keeper also has the second-best goals prevented tally (3.90), behind Dean Henderson (4.40).

Martinez has been forced into making 10 saves across his four starts in the Europa League this season, working out to an average of 2.50 saves per 90. I think he’ll maintain his solid shot-stopping ability here with Lille, having the appropriate firepower to test him at least twice, averaging 5.00 shots on target per game in the Europa League so far this season. 

Despite this only hitting in five of eight Palace games, one of those eight games was a game featuring ten in defeat to this opposition (8-2 corner count in favour of Palace) and with the club out of the FA Cup and a likely midtable finish in the Premier League, they can really put all of their eggs into the Conference League basket and I think they will want to lay down a real marker at home here against inferior opposition.

Five of Larnaca’s six league phase games also saw at least eight corners, and all featured between seven and ten, showing a strong level of consistency at both ends of the pitch, which is handy for this selection.

Palace also covered this line by themselves in two league phase games, with ten against KuPS and nine against Shelbourne (as well as seven when hosting Fredrikstad in the qualifying play-off round).

Unsurprisingly, given we expect Palace to have a good number of shots on target and a fair number of corners in the match, it’s one of their centre-backs that catches the eye to have an effort on goal here.

Across his last ten starts in all competitions, the Frenchman is averaging 0.96 shots per 90 minutes, with at least one in eight of those matches. This includes efforts against both Champions League-calibre teams such as Man United, Chelsea, and Newcastle, as well as the likes of Burnley and last round’s opponents Zrinjski Mostar, demonstrating there is no bias towards the type or strength of opposition that Lacroix tends to have a shot against.

His shot data is stronger than fellow centre-backs Chris Richards and Chadi Riad, suggesting that he (alongside big striker Strand Larsen) will be the primary target from set pieces, which, if the corners flow as they should do, he is likely to get a head (or a boot) on the end of one or two.

After starting the campaign playing as a right back/right wing back, Miramon moved into more of an attacking role in the last couple of games, shuffling between midfield and the right wing.

In those two last Conference League matches, he had two shots against both KF Drita and Hacken, and started on the wing in Larnaca’s 3-0 league win this weekend just gone, scoring the second before being replaced just before the hour mark.

With the Cypriot’s looking to have changed shape in recent weeks from a back three system to more of a 4-2-3-1, and with some key attacking injuries meaning he is likely to remain in this more advanced role and look to exploit the space in behind left wing back Tyrick Mitchell, I think there’s every chance he keeps up his good forward thrust from recent weeks.

Morgan Gibbs-White has come alive in the Europa League this season, registering five goal contributions across his six starts in the competition and taking 17 shots across these games (2.80 per 90). 

Of these efforts, 11 have found the target (1.81 per 90), which represents a substantial increase in Gibbs-White’s shot and shot on target numbers in the Premier League. Gibbs-White has netted a further eight goals in the Premier League this season, from a shot on target average of 0.76 per 90.

The increase in his accuracy in the Europa League is likely down to the extra time and space that he is afforded in the competition compared to when he plays in the Premier League. 

These sides faced off in the league phase of the Europa League in a game that ended in a 3-2 win for Midtjylland. Gibbs-White had two shots in that game, with one of these efforts finding the target - showing how Gibbs-White can live up to his average shot and shots on target numbers in the Europa League again in this clash.

This line might seem quite high at the price, but there aren’t many players better to back in this market than Elliot Anderson. In the league phase meeting between the sides earlier in the season, Anderson ended the game with 12 foul involvements.

I had to go and look at his numbers a few times from that game just to make sure I was reading them correctly, though Anderson is capable of these sorts of monstrous foul numbers regularly. If you combine Anderson’s foul won and foul committed numbers in the Europa League this season, he’s averaging 5.74 foul involvements per 90.

Even if we look at Anderson’s numbers over a larger sample size, he’s averaging 3.71 foul involvements per 90 in the Premier League this term across his 29 starts in the division. It’s clear that Anderson is a magnet for foul involvements, and the 12 he managed in the most recent head-to-head meeting between the sides would suggest that at least four foul involvements are possible here.

Midtjylland ran out 3-2 winners when these sides faced off earlier in the season, and managed to have five shots on target and draw one save from Metz Sels, with their other effort on target being cleared off the line.

Matz Sels hasn’t been the busiest keeper in the Europa League this season with six saves across his five starts in the competition (1.20 per 90). However, Midtjylland have the firepower to cause Nottingham Forest problems - they finished third in the league phase, winning six of their eight matches and netting 18 goals in the process (2.25 per game).

Only three sides have had more shots on target than Midtjylland in the Europa League this season (5.90 per game), so the Danish side have the appropriate quality at the front end to force a rise in Sels’ relatively low save numbers in the Europa League this season.

The meeting between these sides in the league phase produced five goals as Midtjylland ran out 3-2 winners at the City Ground. Midtjylland have seen 26 goals across their eight league phase matches in the Europa League this season, working out to an average of 3.25 goals per game.

Forest’s matches in the Europa League have been pretty entertaining this season too, with 22 goals across their eight league phase matches (2.75 per game), and a further six goals across the two legs of their playoff tie against Fenerbahce - with both of those legs seeing 3+ goals. 

Forest also look a bit more open under Vitor Pereira, which is reflected in the goal tallies across their recent matches. Forest have seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, while Midtjylland have seen 2+ goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions.

Bayern absolutely battered Atalanta in the first leg of their last 16 tie in the Champions League during the week, netting six goals - all while Harry Kane was on the bench. That commanding victory allows Vincent Kompany to really focus in on this clash, as Bayern look to fully cement their position as the league leaders in the Bundesliga.

Bayern could easily cover this line on their own, they’ve netted 92 goals across their 25 matches in the Bundesliga this season (3.68 per game), with 40 of these goals coming across their 12 away matches (3.33 per game). Bayern covered this goal line on their own when the sides last met, running out 3-0 winners - but I do think Leverkusen can contribute to the goal tally this time around.

Leverkusen did really well to hold Arsenal to a 1-1 draw in their Champions League tie against the Premier League leaders during the week. They would have won that game too if it wasn’t for Arsenal getting a controversial last minute penalty, so they should be relatively confident ahead of this clash. 

They also have plenty to fight for with Leverkusen being three points away from the Champions League spots at the moment. Leverkusen have netted 25 goals across their 12 home games in the Bundesliga this term (2.08 per game), and welcome a Bayern side that have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions.

This game is set up perfectly for goals at both ends with neither side looking particularly convincing at the back across recent weeks. Both sides saw BTTS in their Champions League clashes during the week as Newcastle drew 1-1 with Barcelona, while Chelsea collapsed to a 5-2 defeat at the hands of PSG.

Both sides have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches across all competitions, with Chelsea only managing to keep three clean sheets across their 16 matches under Rosenior so far. Rosenior’s tenure so far has similarities to Pochettino’s time at the club, I think he’s popular with the players - but his style is chaotic and a bit naive, as PSG exposed during the week.

Newcastle have seen BTTS in each of their last 13 matches across all competitions, stretching back to a 2-0 defeat against Aston Villa back at the end of January. Eddie Howe’s side are missing Bruno Guimaraes quite a lot at the moment, but still have the individual quality to cause opposition sides problems.

The most recent league meeting between these sides produced four goals as Chelsea came from behind to earn a 2-2 draw. That clash produced a combined xG of 3.53, with both sides registering a tally in excess of 1.0.

The next step on Arsenal’s title path sees Mikel Arteta’s side welcome Everton to the Emirates, where Arsenal have won 11 of their 14 matches in the Premier League. They’ve scored 33 goals across these games (2.35 per game), and have conceded fewer goals than any other side in the division at home (9).

Arsenal come into this clash unbeaten in their last nine matches across all competitions, winning eight of these games. This clash comes at an important time for Mikel Arteta’s side, if Arsenal were to lose this game - then they won’t have another Premier League match until the 11th April.

I have been impressed by Everton at times this season, but do think they will struggle to find a way past this Arsenal backline given that they’ve only scored 16 goals across their 14 away matches this term. David Moyes’ side fell to a 1-0 loss to Arsenal when the sides met earlier in the season, with Arsenal registering an xG of 2.00 to Everton’s 0.20. 

I think Arsenal find a way to get over the line here, it hasn’t always been smooth for Mikel Arteta’s men this season but a victory here, ahead of Manchester City’s trip to West Ham last in the day, could put them in a really commanding position in this title race.

Nijmegen have become a bit of a favourite in our Saturday and Sunday accumulators, and they are yet to really let us down when backing their matches for goals. Nijmegen have been the most entertaining sides to follow across Europe this season, their matches regularly see action at both ends due to their intense, borderline insane approach to matches at times.

Nijmegen have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception of a 3-0 win over Volendam last time out - who struggle for attacking quality. They managed to run out 3-2 winners in the most recent head to head meeting between the sides, which was in the KNVB Cup but the recent league meetings between the sides also offer promise with each of the last two clashes seeing BTTS and a combined tally of 14 goals.

PSV have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches across all competitions, and have seen 59 goals across their 13 home matches in the Eredivisie this term (4.53 per game). Keeping clean sheets isn’t a massive part of PSV’s game, despite them leading the way in the Eredivisie - with four sides managing to keep more shutouts than the league leaders so far this term (6).