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This is a really good test for England following their exit in the semi final of the World Cup to Argentina, with Thomas Tuchel’s side now eyeing up the home European Championships as the trophy to end England’s years of hurt.

There is often a criticism of England that they don’t play the elite nations often enough outside of international tournaments, but the Nations League gives the Three Lions an opportunity to do that with Croatia also being in their Nations League A group.

The most recent meeting between these nations was in the EURO 2024 final, which of course saw Spain come away 2-1 winners to lift the trophy. Each of the last four head to head meetings between the sides have seen this selection land - which is a nice historical trend to add to the wider evidence for goals here.

England only kept two clean sheets across their eight matches at the World Cup. They have the attacking talent to cause Spain problems, as shown by the six goals they put past France in the third place playoff.

Harry Kane is so reliable for England, and many are concerned that finding another striker as effective as Kane will be problematic in the coming years with the former Tottenham man coming towards the end of the year.

He’s scored 85 goals across 121 caps for England, scoring six goals across seven starts at the World Cup. He achieved this tally from 12 shots on target (1.65 per 90), averaging over 3.0 shots per 90 during the tournament.

Kane has also started this season really well, scoring three goals across three starts in the Bundesliga as well as netting in the Champions League. Kane scored eight goals across eight starts during England’s last Nations League campaign, averaging 2.11 shots on target per 90.

Lamine Yamal has previously spoken about how he wants to score more for his country having netted seven goals across his 33 caps.

He seems to be improving in front of goal with every season, already scoring seven goals across seven starts in LaLiga as well as netting in Barcelona’s thrashing of Feyenoord in the Champions League.

Lamine Yamal has taken 38 shots across those seven starts in LaLiga (5.89 per 90), which is a shot average we can expect him to match here against an England side who look very vulnerable at the back. 

Yamal scored three goals across seven starts during Spain’s last Nations League campaign, in which they got to the final, averaging 3.72 shots per 90 and 1.49 shots on target per 90.

Marc Cucurella is going to get a hostile reception at Wembley with many fans still yet to forgive him for his antics in the EURO 2024 final, the tournament where Cucurella nailed down his starting spot in this Spain side.

Cucurella is a nightmare to play against as he’s so energetic and gets very tough tight to his opposite winger, making him a good option to commit fouls if he has the right 1v1 duel. 

He committed eight fouls across eight starts during the World Cup (0.96 per 90) and will be up against Bukayo Saka, who is a player that he’s faced off against many times before - Saka has won 15 fouls across five starts already in the Premier League this season (3.23 per 90).

Neco Williams is always worth looking at in the shot market, this price is a little more generous than you would get for him when playing for Forest, but it’s still worth backing when he lines up for Wales.

Williams has taken six shots across his five starts in the Premier League so far this season (1.20 per 90), producing a similar record across his 36 Premier League starts last season (1.29 per 90).

Williams didn’t manage to get a shot away in Wales’ defeat to Portugal last time out, but that was a very tough assignment for Craig Bellamy’s side and I would expect them to have more joy in the final third here.

Williams took nine shots across his eight starts for Wales during World Cup qualifying, working out to an average of 1.20 shots per 90. He also averaged 1.0 shots per 90 during Wales’ last Nations League campaign, showing real consistency across recent seasons and competitions.

Ampadu really struggled to contain the Portugal midfield last time out, committing two fouls in the process, and I think he may have similar issues here.

Ampadu is a key figure in this Wales side, often captaining his nation and an established Premier League player. His record domestically isn’t that eye-catching (0.80 fouls per 90), but he does tend to be more aggressive for Wales.

Ampadu committed eight fouls across his five starts during World Cup qualifying (1.59 per 90), as well as committing three fouls across just 180 minutes of action during Wales’ last Nations League campaign.

Denmark drew 14 fouls from Norway last time out, with Victor Froholdt being particularly effective, winning two fouls. He’ll be Ampadu’s direct opponent in this clash, and I think he can cause him real issues.

Dorgu is one of the best players in Europe when it comes to winning fouls, and was fouled three times against Norway last time out, which is a regular return for the United man.

Dorgu won an impressive 47 fouls across just 15 starts in the Premier League last season (2.93 per 90). He played quite high up the pitch against Norway last time out and may continue in that role here.

Dorgu also won 11 fouls across just three starts during Denmark's World Cup qualifying campaign (3.19 per 90). It’s an incredibly consistent part of his game and he should have enough duels against Wales’ fullbacks to win 2+ fouls again.

I was impressed that Wales managed to keep Portugal to just the one goal on Thursday night, conceding an xG of 1.93 from 23 shots as Craig Bellamy fielded a depleted side that notably was missing Harry Wilson.

Denmark did quite well against Norway last time out and were unlucky to lose the game in the final quarter having matched Norway for shots (13) and shots on target (7) with both sides also having a similar xG (1.41-1.09).

Denmark will see this as the easiest game in their group. That’s not being disrespectful to Wales, but Portugal and Norway are both comfortably better sides - so Denmark should see this as a game they have to win if they want to be competitive in this group, particularly at home.

It is really notable that Wales are missing Harry Wilson at the moment, he was their top scorer during qualifying with five goals and Wales lack something extra in the final third when he doesn’t play.

This feels like a punt worth taking at 10/1. They are priced extremely short for a single shot on target, as heavily odds on favourites. Kane is 1.20, Yamal is 1.17.

When looking purely at the Nations League, Yamal has recently played against Netherlands, France and Portugal, managing 4+ shots against all of them, with 2+ shots on target landing in all of those games. When looking at these shots on target, he's really strong in the 2nd half, so I do feel like a lot of the 'risk' is based on him managing a shot on target in the first half. But with England having a few players withdraw, most notably Rice, I don't think they'll be as strong as they could be defensively.

As for Kane, he is consistently top of the rankings for shots for England, with only Bellingham really coming close. At the World Cup, he was averaging 3.19 shots per game, and with the added possibility of taking any penalties, I do feel he's the obvious choice to pair with Yamal.

They are both price at just 3.75 to have 2+ shots on target, so managing 11.0 for them to have at least one in each half feels strong. I'm on it personally for a bit of fun.

Norway get the nod from me here, and I'm still not sold on the balance of this Portugal team despite the managerial change. Norway have proven extremely difficult to overcome on home soil over the past 12 months, as both Italy and Denmark have found out recently.

That said, for all their strength at home, Norway have a habit of conceding. They failed to keep a single clean sheet at the World Cup and shipped two goals against Denmark last time out at the start of their Nations League campaign.

Portugal don't look much better at the back either. They gave up an xG of 5.80 across five World Cup matches and only shut out Colombia and Uzbekistan - with Colombia particularly unfortunate not to score, racking up an xG of 1.70 from 24 attempts.

This selection landed in Serbia’s opening game of their Nations League campaign as they gave up a one goal lead to lose 2-1 to Greece, thanks to a strike in the 95th minute by Douvikas.

Greece deserved that victory, they dominated the underlying numbers and had 26 shots in total - seeing nine of these efforts find the target. They did, however, allow Serbia to generate an xG of 1.42 from nine shots which underlines the attacking threat they could pose here.

I was impressed with Xavi’s Netherlands side last time out as they struck in the final stages to earn a point against Germany. They should have collected all three points really, having registered an xG of 3.18 from 22 shots.

Xavi’s teams are always going to concede chances due to how positive he wants his sides to be. I think they give up chances against this Serbia side, but still have enough quality to come out on top.

Wales lost 1-0 to Portugal last time out, but missed a golden chance to get on the scoresheet in that game with their five shots returning an xG of 0.85.

I really like the approach that Craig Bellamy has taken to this role, he wants Wales to be a side that doesn’t just set up to keep sides out and he will look at Denmark as the weakest of the other opponents Wales have to take on.

However, the Danes are likely to have a similar mindset given that this is the easiest of their assignments on paper so I expect both sides to target this game as a near must win for any chance of success in this group.

Denmark saw this selection land in their opening game against Norway, and were quite unlucky to lose 3-2 with both sides posting similar underlying numbers. They didn’t lose a game at home during World Cup qualifying, and I think they will be able to come out on top but not without Wales getting on the scoresheet. 

These sides have both struggled in the early weeks of the season, with De Graafschap only winning one of their opening seven matches while Den Bosch have won just two of their opening set of fixtures.

Despite the struggles of the home side, they have still been able to find the back of the net in recent weeks with this selection landing in four of their last five matches - with the exception of a 5-0 thrashing by Heracles, who sit top of the league having won six of their seven matches.

What is also notable for this selection is that both sides have only seen one of their opening seven matches finish level. Both backlines are really vulnerable too, only two sides in the Eerste Divisie have conceded more goals than De Graafschap so far (20), while Den Bosch have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their matches.

These sides have both struggled in the early weeks of the season, with De Graafschap only winning one of their opening seven matches while Den Bosch have won just two of their opening set of fixtures.

Despite the struggles of the home side, they have still been able to find the back of the net in recent weeks with this selection landing in four of their last five matches - with the exception of a 5-0 thrashing by Heracles, who sit top of the league having won six of their seven matches.

Both backlines are really vulnerable too, only two sides in the Eerste Divisie have conceded more goals than De Graafschap so far (20), while Den Bosch have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their matches.

I really like the approach that Craig Bellamy has taken to this role, he wants Wales to be a side that doesn’t just set up to keep sides out and he will look at Denmark as the weakest of the other opponents Wales have to take on.

However, the Danes are likely to have a similar mindset given that this is the easiest of their assignments on paper so I expect both sides to target this game as a near must win for any chance of success in this group.

Denmark saw this selection land in their opening game against Norway, and were quite unlucky to lose 3-2 with both sides posting similar underlying numbers.

They didn’t lose a game at home during World Cup qualifying, and I think they will be able to come out on top but not without Wales getting on the scoresheet. 

This selection landed in Serbia’s opening game of their Nations League campaign as they gave up a one goal lead to lose 2-1 to Greece, thanks to a strike in the 95th minute by Douvikas.

Greece deserved that victory, they dominated the underlying numbers and had 26 shots in total - seeing nine of these efforts find the target.

They did, however, allow Serbia to generate an xG of 1.42 from nine shots which underlines the attacking threat they could pose here.

I was impressed with Xavi’s Netherlands side last time out as they struck in the final stages to earn a point against Germany.

They should have collected all three points really, having registered an xG of 3.18 from 22 shots.

Xavi’s teams are always going to concede chances due to how positive he wants his sides to be.

I think they give up chances against this Serbia side, but still have enough quality to come out on top.

There’s a standout game for BTTS on Sunday in the Canadian Premier League.

York United, or Inter Toronto as they're also known, have seen BTTS in 18/22 league games this term, and they host a Pacific side who’ve seen the bet land in 16/22.

These are the best two teams in the division for BTTS Yes.

9/10 York United home games have seen the bet land, and it’s come in during six of the last seven meetings between the sides.

York United have scored in 20/22 league outings, but kept just two clean sheets.

Pacific have been even worse defensively, keeping one league clean sheet across 22 games.

I make Norway favourites here, I’m still really not convinced by the balance of this Portuguese side despite the change in manager - and Norway have been so tough to beat at home over the last year as Italy and Denmark have recently found out.

Despite their general dominance at home, Norway do find keeping clean sheets quite difficult. They didn’t keep a single shutout during the World Cup and conceded two goals against Denmark last time out as they picked off their Nations League campaign.

Portugal’s backline isn’t exactly solid either, they conceded an xG of 5.80 across their five games at the World Cup and only kept out Colombia and Uzbekistan, with the former being very unlucky not to get on the scoresheet with an xG of 1.70 from 24 shots.

Mallorca have made a good start in the second tier after their five-season spell in La Liga ended last term.

They’ve kept five clean sheets in six games this season, a defensive process that’ll stand them in good stead looking for an immediate return to the top-flight.

Almeria have overperformed defensively so far this season, to concede four goals from 6.6 xG conceded.

Mallorca have overperformed in the same area but by a lesser extent, and they have the joint-best defence in the league according to xG conceded and goals conceded.

They’ve won three of their last four, keeping four straight clean sheets, coming into this and could go top with a win if other results go their way.

Top of the table clash in League B Group 3, as Austria look to build on their 3-1 win at Israel on Thursday, and Kosovo their 1-0 win over Republic of Ireland.

There are 55 places between these two in the rankings, and Austria are coming in off the back of a satisfactory World Cup, where they reached the knockout stages but ultimately only beat Jordan in their four tournament outings.

Kosovo were very competitive in World Cup qualifying, but did only score six goals in their six group stage games.

It’s hard to see them chasing the game well if Austria are able to get their noses in front.

Serbia are not in a good spot, and that doesn’t bode well ahead of hosting the Netherlands.

Despite looking capable on paper, they’re a poor team, and since World Cup qualifying began for them in June 2025, they’ve only beaten Latvia and Andorra in competitive action.

Even though they led until the 74th minute, they were deservedly beaten at home to Greece on Thursday, conceding 2.51 xG on the night - if Greece can post those kinds of numbers, what can the Netherlands?

It was another promising but unspectacular showing from the Dutch at the World Cup, going out to Morocco on penalties, and they’ll be eyeing a spot in the Nations League knockouts after drawing with Jurgen Klopp’s Germany on Thursday.

Last season’s 5th-placed side, Burgos, have made an impressive start in the Spanish second tier, winning three, drawing two and losing just once so far.

They’re four unbeaten and have won back-to-back games coming into this one, upsetting the odds with a 2-1 win at Las Palmas last time out, with forgotten man Jese Rodriguez on the scoresheet for their opponents that day.

Newly-promoted Eldense have made a slow start, and goalscoring has been a problem.

They’ve scored only four times in six encounters, crucially, for this bet, finding the net just once in their three league away games.

That bodes well for a Burgos side who’re becoming a regular feature at the top end of the division.

I do have a soft spot for this Greece side with all the young talent they have coming through, particularly in forward areas, but beating a side like Germany on the road is still probably a step too far for this young team.

Germany are really hard to beat on home soil, they won all three of their games during World Cup qualifying at home and only conceded one goal, netting 13. Those games saw them put six past Slovakia, four past Luxembourg and three past Northern Ireland.

Even in the last Nations League campaign, Germany won all three home games by an aggregate scoreline of 13-0 with this group being more competitive and featuring the likes of Netherlands, Hungary and Bosnia.

Jurgen Klopp does have work to do to bring this Germany side back to the pinnacle of the sport, but this is a good platform for him to earn his first win as Germany boss.

I make Norway favourites here, I’m still really not convinced by the balance of this Portuguese side despite the change in manager - and Norway have been so tough to beat at home over the last year as Italy and Denmark have recently found out.

Despite their general dominance at home, Norway do find keeping clean sheets quite difficult. They didn’t keep a single shutout during the World Cup and conceded two goals against Denmark last time out as they picked off their Nations League campaign.

Portugal’s backline isn’t exactly solid either, they conceded an xG of 5.80 across their five games at the World Cup and only kept out Colombia and Uzbekistan, with the former being very unlucky not to get on the scoresheet with an xG of 1.70 from 24 shots.

I do have a soft spot for this Greece side with all the young talent they have coming through, particularly in forward areas, but beating a side like Germany on the road is still probably a step too far for this young team.

Germany are really hard to beat on home soil, they won all three of their games during World Cup qualifying at home and only conceded one goal, netting 13. Those games saw them put six past Slovakia, four past Luxembourg and three past Northern Ireland.

Even in the last Nations League campaign, Germany won all three home games by an aggregate scoreline of 13-0 with this group being more competitive and featuring the likes of Netherlands, Hungary and Bosnia.

Jurgen Klopp does have work to do to bring this Germany side back to the pinnacle of the sport, but this is a good platform for him to earn his first win as Germany boss.

I was impressed that Wales managed to keep Portugal to just the one goal on Thursday night, conceding an xG of 1.93 from 23 shots as Craig Bellamy fielded a depleted side that notably was missing Harry Wilson.

Denmark did quite well against Norway last time out and were unlucky to lose the game in the final quarter having matched Norway for shots (13) and shots on target (7) with both sides also having a similar xG (1.41-1.09).

Denmark will see this as the easiest game in their group. That’s not being disrespectful to Wales, but Portugal and Norway are both comfortably better sides - so Denmark should see this as a game they have to win if they want to be competitive in this group, particularly at home.

It is really notable that Wales are missing Harry Wilson at the moment, he was their top scorer during qualifying with five goals and Wales lack something extra in the final third when he doesn’t play.

I do have a soft spot for this Greece side with all the young talent they have coming through, particularly in forward areas, but beating a side like Germany on the road is still probably a step too far for this young team.

Germany are really hard to beat on home soil, they won all three of their games during World Cup qualifying at home and only conceded one goal, netting 13. Those games saw them put six past Slovakia, four past Luxembourg and three past Northern Ireland.

Even in the last Nations League campaign, Germany won all three home games by an aggregate scoreline of 13-0 with this group being more competitive and featuring the likes of Netherlands, Hungary and Bosnia.

Jurgen Klopp does have work to do to bring this Germany side back to the pinnacle of the sport, but this is a good platform for him to earn his first win as Germany boss.

Netherlands snatched an equaliser in the final minute against Germany last time out in Xavi’s first game in charge.

It may look lucky on paper, but I was impressed with what I saw from Xavi’s men who dominated the underlying numbers and probably should have come away with all three points.

Netherlands recorded an xG of 3.18 from 22 shots with 10 of these finding the target. They also had 43 touches in the opposition box, won the corner count 12-1 and had marginally more possession than Jurgen Klopp’s side.

Serbia gave up a 1-0 lead against Greece last time out, losing 2-1 thanks to a last minute strike from Como forward Douvikas. The Greeks managed to register an xG of 2.51 from 26 shots as the away side, I expect Netherlands to produce similar numbers and score at least twice.

I make Norway favourites here, I’m still really not convinced by the balance of this Portuguese side despite the change in manager - and Norway have been so tough to beat at home over the last year as Italy and Denmark have recently found out.

Despite their general dominance at home, Norway do find keeping clean sheets quite difficult. They didn’t keep a single shutout during the World Cup and conceded two goals against Denmark last time out as they picked off their Nations League campaign.

Portugal’s backline isn’t exactly solid either, they conceded an xG of 5.80 across their five games at the World Cup and only kept out Colombia and Uzbekistan, with the former being very unlucky not to get on the scoresheet with an xG of 1.70 from 24 shots.

Vancouver have been a really reliable team to back in the MLS this season and currently sit top of the Western Conference having won 15 of their 25 matches.

Their recent form looks patchy on paper, but they were able to get a really positive result on the road against Real Salt Lake last time out which should help confidence.

Vancouver also have one of the top scorers in the division in Brian White, who has 16 goals in the MLS this season - building on the 18 he managed in the MLS last year.

DC United sit 11th in the Eastern Conference and have had a pretty unremarkable season to date, winning just six of their 25 matches and notably just winning two from 11 on the road.

They’ve also only managed to win one of their last five matches across all competitions, giving Vancouver a real edge over their opponents here as Vancouver have won nine of their 14 home games.

Toronto come into this game having suffered back to back heavy defeats against Orlando and St Louis as the away side, conceding 3+ goals in both games - including an xG against of 2.60 against St Louis.

Toronto are without a clean sheet across their last 10 matches and sit 12th in the Eastern Conference with a dismal away record which has seen them win two of their 12 away assignments, conceding 21 goals in the process.

Nashville should have too much for them here, they came away 3-0 winners over Chicago last time out and have only lost once across their last five matches. Nashville have won a remarkable 12 out of 13 home games this season, avoiding defeat in all of these matches.

They’ve picked up the most points at home of any side across the two conferences and their defensive record looks particularly mean with just 12 goals conceded against 39 scored. 

These sides met back in March with Colorado coming away 4-1 winners on that occasion, with an xG of 2.14 and LA Galaxy dropping down to 10 men for the last 30 minutes of the encounter.

Only three points and one place separates these sides in the Eastern Conference, so we can expect it to be quite a close game with chances for both sides as both are also dangerously close to dropping out of the playoff spots.

This game is particularly important as Colorado have a game in hand on LA Galaxy, meaning they could open up a nine point gap on their opponents if they were to collect all three points and win their extra game. 

Both sides saw BTTS last time out as LA Galaxy emerged 3-2 winners over Minnesota on the road while Colorado had to settle for a point in a 3-3 draw with Seattle Sounders.

Philadelphia’s recovery this season has been quite remarkable after a really slow start that left them bottom of the Eastern Conference after the first few weeks.

Their rise has a lot to do with the talent of Cavan Sullivan who is in unbelievable form with 12 goal contributions across 17 starts at just 16 years of age. 

Philadelphia have won each of their last five matches ahead of this clash, seeing BTTS against Sporting Kansas last time as they emerged 4-3 winners despite only having an underlying xG of 0.86 themselves. 

Orlando have lost their last two matches, but have scored in both of these games and in each of their last 19 matches more widely - stretching all the way back to a blank against Montreal on the road back in May.

Orlando have only won three of their 13 away games in the MLS this term, yet have still scored 23 goals across these games which sums up the side quite well. The 43 goals they’ve conceded across these games is the most on the road of any side in the Eastern Conference. 

The Bengals are 2-0 on the season, with a 26.5 points scored average over these 2 games. This places them joint-10th top scorers in the NFL, with Pittsburgh (1-1) dead last with an 11.5 average. They also sit 31st in EPA/Play. Last time out, the Steelers scored just 3 points vs. the Pats.

Cincinnati sits joint-8th defensively, conceding an average of 16.5 points per game and shipping just 6 points vs. the Texans last time out. The Steelers are joint-8th too but conceded 20 points vs. the Pats in Week 2.

The Steelers looked weak against the Pats last time out, while the Bengals' defense is showing signs of improvement. Back the Bengals to beat the spread here.

It's a big spread, but the Chiefs have significantly improved on last season and are 2-0 so far in 2026. You also feel there's more to come from this Kansas City side, despite them scoring 33 against the Colts last time out in an impressive OT win.

With an average of 32.0 PPG, Kansas City sits 3rd top scorers in the NFL while the Dolphins are 2nd-bottom with just 13.0 PPG. Add to this the Patrick Mahomes factor, who passed for 382 yards and 3 TDs in that 33-30 win over Indianapolis, and it's hard to see Miami keeping up.

Indeed, if their 13 PPG average continues, the Chiefs would only need to score 24 here to beat the spread - they have scored 31 and 33 in their 2 games so far this season. If you're looking for a Bet Builder, Mahomes over 235.5 passing yards also looks good value.

I'm not thrilled about -7.5 - get below 7 if you can - but the Chargers (0-2) have had two poor defeats to Arizona (14-26) and Las Vegas (14-26) and are in somewhat of disarray.

Ranking 3rd-bottom in PPG (14.0) and 22nd in defense (26.0 OPP PPG), they face a Bills side that ranks as top scorers in the NFL thus far (38.5 PPG average). Buffalo has scored 77 points, with QB Josh Allen throwing for 334 yards and 2 TDs vs. Houston (36-31 win) and 248 yards and 3 TDs vs. Detroit (41-31 win) last time out.

If the 2-0 Bills can grab an early lead - as they did vs. Detroit when they were 14-0 up after Q1 and 27-10 up at HT - the Chargers may be forced into a passing game, which could favor Buffalo.

New England ranks joint-27th in PPG with 15.0, having scored 10 against Seattle and 20 against Pittsburgh last time out. Jacksonville, meanwhile, ranks 15th with 23.5 PPG but scored just 13 in Week 2 against the Broncos. The combined PPG = 38.5, 7.0 below this line.

The Pats, meanwhile, have the strongest defense in the NFL, conceding an average of just 8.0 PPG this season. This includes limiting Pittsburgh to just 3 points in Week 2. New England is 3rd strongest in team opponent yards per play (4.5) and 4th strongest in overall opponent yards per game (260.0).

Jacksonville sits joint-6th defensively, with an OPP PPG average of 15.0. They are mid-table in both opponent yards per play and opponent yards per game.

The combined OPP PPG = 23.0, 22.5 under this line, while this is expected to be a tight game with very little in it.

Everything points to the Under.

Henderson had 76 rushing yards, 16 rushing attempts and 1 TD in the Pats' 20-3 win over the Steelers in Week 2, marking his season debut in style. To get over 39.5 rush yards here, he'll only need 8-10 carries based on last week's numbers (4.8 Y/A) - he has had 10+ carries in 9/L10 regular season games. He has also gone over 39.5 rush yards in 9/L10 regular season games too.

In Week 3, he's up against a Jaguars' rushing defense that ranked 13th in the NFL going into Week 3 with a rush yards allowed average of 95.5 for 1 TD conceded. In Week 2, the Broncos had 104 rushing yards vs. the Jaguars and New England have a much stronger rushing offense (10th in NFL, 122.5 team rushing yards per game) than Denver (27th in NFL, 82.5 team rushing yards per game). This suggests Henderson could have a good afternoon vs. Jacksonville.

Doubs received for 96 yards in the Pats' Week 2 win over the Steelers and has received for over 42.5 yards in 4/L5 games overall. The Pats' WR is up against a weak Jaguars defense that ranks 22nd in the NFL in pass yards allowed average, with 236.5 and 2 TDs conceded.

In 2025, Jacksonville ranked dead last in Team Opponent Pass Attempts per Game (37.2) and although they rank joint-4th in 2026 (26.5), this is slanted by a strong Week 1 performance vs. the Browns. Against the Broncos last week, this stat jumps to 31.0. The jury is still out on the Jags' defense here.

In Doubs' one and only game vs. the Jaguars thus far, he received for 72 yards in a 30-27 win in October 2024.
The Pats are underdogs for his game, which suggests they'll adopt a more throwing approach, meaning Doubs could sail over this modest target.

Washington has gone over this total on both occasions this season, with 5 receptions against Cleveland and 7 receptions against Denver.

Washington has also had over 4.5 total receptions in all of his last 6 games, averaging 6.33 over this period. The Patriots may sit joint-5th in passing defense with a pass yards allowed average of 166, but they are weak against wide receivers who have gotten into space, which could allow Washington to capitalize here.

These were two of the most exciting nations at the World Cup and I can see a high scoring game between the two here with both having new managers.

France saw 3+ goals in five of their eight matches at the World Cup, bowing out at the semi final stage to eventual winners Spain. No side registered a higher xG than France at the World Cup (17.5), though admittedly this was slightly inflated by their crazy 6-4 defeat to England in the third placed playoff game.

However, Belgium can also contribute to a high scoring encounter having also impressed at the World Cup, to the surprise of some, seeing 3+ goals in four of their six matches at the World Cup with three of these games being knockout matches.

Furthermore, Belgium were the only side throughout the World Cup who managed to breach the backline of Spain - which shouldn’t be overlooked, they’ve got the attacking quality to cause some of these elite nations issues.

These sides met in the most recent Nations League campaign back in 2024, with that game seeing exactly three goals as France ran out 2-1 winners over Belgium as the away side with a combined xG of 4.18 on that occasion. 

I’m still far from sold on this Italy project, they’ve turned back to Roberto Mancini to try and inspire the sort of run that led them to the European Championship in his previous tenure - but they have to qualify for an international tournament first.

The rot within the Italian FA is far deeper than just the players not performing. Italy have neglected the youth pathways over recent years and have been left with several young players that haven’t developed as they would have in many other nations.

That said, Mancini has picked a very young squad for this international break which creates a different issue as Italy are almost trying to force the development of these young players all at once - without a set culture or direction like we see with Spain as the best example.

Türkiye underperformed at the World Cup (again) but still showed enough to convince me to back them to score here. They registered an xG of 6.60 across their three matches, scoring three goals in their final game against USA.

Türkiye scored 17 goals across six games during qualifying, including netting twice on the road against Spain.