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Real Madrid needed a last minute winner from new signing Carlos Espi to edge past Espanyol last time out, but were dominant in the game when looking at the underlying numbers - registering an xG of 2.71 from 21 shots. 

Mourinho’s side avoided defeat across all five of their friendly matches, scoring 2+ goals in four of these games. It’s this scoring power that will set Real Madrid apart from most sides in LaLiga this season, especially a Sociedad side who fell to a 1-0 defeat to Real Betis last time out with just nine shots.

Real Sociedad really struggled on the road in LaLiga last season, winning just three of their 19 away matches. They only scored 22 goals across these games, once again suggesting that there is quite a bit of a gap in the scoring power of these sides. 

The first leg meeting between these sides finished 2-2 with Viking managing to upset the odds, and the underlying data, to claim a draw in Zagreb. 

Viking have seen BTTS in five of their last six matches across all competitions, and have notably won all seven of their home games domestically this season - scoring 25 goals in the process (3.57 per game). 

Dinamo Zagreb were heavy favourites to qualify before the first leg, but have since drifted to be the outsiders. They’ve scored in each of their last 13 matches ahead of this clash, notably seeing BTTS in four of their last five matches during Champions League qualifying.

Newcastle looked pretty impressive in their opening game of the Premier League season as they earned a point against Liverpool. 

They were quite unlucky not to take all three points, given that Liverpool were awarded a controversial penalty in the last few minutes of the game.

They take on a West Brom side that has started the season quite well, but I do think the EFL Cup is a bit of a distraction for the Baggies who are unlikely to see it as a priority given that they have a massive game against Middlesbrough to come at the weekend. 

I think we’ll see those priorities reflected in the lineup put out by James Morrison who won’t want to sacrifice the momentum that West Brom have built up across the early weeks of the season in the Championship. 

It’s hard to oppose Premier League sides in the early rounds of the EFL Cup, the gap between the top flight and the lower leagues has never been greater and that often shows in these matches.

Everton made a strong start to the season with a comfortable 2-0 win over Crystal Palace. They’ve got a decent squad this year, with the likes of George and Ndiaye being particularly impressive on the opening weekend alongside goalscorers Thierno Barry and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.

It’s also been a very long time since Everton won anything, so I would expect them to take this competition quite seriously with a kind draw in the first round. Preston have really struggled at the start of this campaign, losing to Bolton and Wolves - also struggling in pre-season with just one win from their five friendly matches. 

Burnley have looked really open at the back in their first few matches under Nicky Hayen, conceding three goals against West Brom last time out after conceding twice against West Ham in their opening game of the season.

This defensive vulnerability isn’t too surprising, Hayen mentioned when he was appointed that he wanted to change the style of play and this is quite a drastic shift from the stubborn defensive approach that Burnley employed under Scott Parker.

I think Bradford will see this as an opportunity to cause an upset as the home side. They’ve scored in all three of their competitive matches so far this season and should be the latest team to benefit from the lack of defensive organisation which is currently present with Burnley. 

Charlton should see this as a free hit and I think it’ll be an entertaining game given the style that De Zerbi will persist with. Charlton have started the season quite well, beating Derby and West Ham in what could prove to be crucial points come the end of the campaign. 

Both of these victories have seen 3+ goals, with Charlton being really clinical in both matches to outperform their xG tallies. They take on a Tottenham side that is still lacking confidence, and suffered a 3-0 defeat to Brentford last time out - notably conceding an xG of 3.87. 

Tottenham’s defensive vulnerabilities are there to be exploited by a clinical Charlton side, even if the away side lack the individual quality of the North London outfit. I can see Charlton getting on the scoresheet in what should be a high scoring game.

Hearts have seen both teams score in five of their last six games in all competitions, which includes their last three in qualifying for Europe.

The first leg finished 2-2, with Hearts getting pegged back after coming from behind to lead 2-1.

Rapid created the better chances on the night, but Hearts weren't afraid to fire shots off, winning the shot count 17-9.

Rapid have been very dangerous in front of goal this season, scoring 3.44 goals per game on average from nine matches across all competitions.

This bet came in after 56 minutes of the first leg, and if there's an early goal, it could be chaos, with the winner sealing a place in the Conference League league phase.

This is the highest-rated game on my Goals Sheet for Both Teams to Score.

Newcastle’s came impressively close to beating Liverpool in their Premier League opener, drawing 2-2, after a turbulent summer.

West Brom have burst out of the blocks in the Championship, beating heavily-fancied Norwich (2-1 away) and newly-relegated Burnley (3-1 at home) in their first two games - they’ll be very motivated and optimistic about their chances of springing an upset on the Toon Army.

West Brom have scored two or more goals in all three competitive games so far.

Newcastle conceded 2.98 xG at home to Liverpool and saw both teams score when they beat Bradford 4-1 in their first game of the competition last season.

This bet landed after 30 minutes of Real Madrid’s La Liga opener.

They were very unconvincing in their 2-1 win at Espanyol, especially in the first half when they conceded 0.97 xG.

BTTS landed in both of the sides’ meetings last season, and though Real Sociedad lost their first game 1-0 at Real Betis, they generated 1.36 xG and should have the quality to get on the scoresheet at the Bernabeu.

Real Sociedad scored in 33 of their 38 league games last season, only three teams drew fewer blanks.

That includes finding the net in 16 of their 19 league away games (84%).

The first leg meeting between these sides finished 2-2 with Viking managing to upset the odds, and the underlying data, to claim a draw in Zagreb. 

Viking have seen BTTS in five of their last six matches across all competitions, and have notably won all seven of their home games domestically this season - scoring 25 goals in the process (3.57 per game). 

Dinamo Zagreb were heavy favourites to qualify before the first leg, but have since drifted to be the outsiders. They’ve scored in each of their last 13 matches ahead of this clash, notably seeing BTTS in four of their last five matches during Champions League qualifying.

Both of these sides will feel as though they belong in the Champions League, and failing to qualify would have pretty bad consequences financially for both teams. 

BTTS landed in the first leg meeting between the sides which was a bit cagey. You could feel the pressure on both sides, but Lyon did well to avoid defeat and come into the second leg as marginal favourites.

I think we’ll see a cagey game in the early stages again here, but the game will inevitably open up with the first goal as it will force the other side to come out and create a more end to end game with this being a straight shootout for a spot in the Champions League next season.

The first leg meeting between these sides ended 0-0, which is a real blow for Levski Sofia as the only way I saw them coming through this tie was if they managed to get a result at home.

The tie being level coming into the second leg massively benefits an AEK Athens side who only lost one of their 16 home games in the Greek Super League last term, scoring 31 goals in the process and conceding just seven.

AEK Athens have also avoided defeat in each of their last 11 matches across all competitions, stretching all the way back to early April. Levski Sofia have done well to get to this stage of qualifying, but this looks like an uphill battle for the away side. 

Did you know that Yaya Toure is the manager of Slovan Bratislava? 

It’s his first venture into coaching and the early signs of his style would suggest that he is trying to play positive and front footed football, with Slovan Bratislava yet to be defeated across his nine games in charge - winning seven of these matches.

Slovan Bratislava were held to a 1-1 draw in the first leg, but were pretty dominant in the underlying numbers. They also have the advantage of having competed in the Champions League before, giving them a superior level of experience when compared with their opponents.

I do think Everton will dominate this cup tie, Preston have looked very poor in their opening two games of the Championship season - losing to Bolton and Wolves.

Preston lost the corner battle 5-2 in their opener against Bolton, they did marginally win the tussle against Wolves - but I can’t see them spending enough time in Everton’s half to come away with a healthy corner count in this clash. 

Everton utilise set pieces quite well under David Moyes and won the corner battle with ease against Crystal Palace in their opening game of the Premier League season - racking up four corners to no reply from the Eagles.

It’s hard to oppose Premier League sides in the early rounds of the EFL Cup, the gap between the top flight and the lower leagues has never been greater and that often shows in these matches.

Everton made a strong start to the season with a comfortable 2-0 win over Crystal Palace. They’ve got a decent squad this year, with the likes of George and Ndiaye being particularly impressive on the opening weekend alongside goalscorers Thierno Barry and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.

It’s also been a very long time since Everton won anything, so I would expect them to take this competition quite seriously with a kind draw in the first round. Preston have really struggled at the start of this campaign, losing to Bolton and Wolves - also struggling in pre-season with just one win from their five friendly matches. 

Beto should come into the starting lineup for Everton here with Thierno Barry set to be given a rest after scoring on the opening weekend of the Premier League as Everton came away 2-0 winners over Crystal Palace.

Beto is quite a chaotic and unpolished striker, but he’s more than good enough to contribute at this level having scored 10+ goals across all competitions in each of his last two seasons at Everton. 

He gives Moyes’ side a clear target man to aim for, which may be useful in a cup tie where the games can get quite scrappy. 

Beto also has the personal motivation to try and force his way back into the Everton starting lineup. Barry looks to be Everton’s first choice at the start of this season, so Beto should have the drive to try and score a few goals to get himself back in the picture. 

Gornik Zabrze missed their chance to have a real chance in this tie by falling to a 3-2 defeat to Monaco last week - though they did well to come back from two goals to keep the French side engaged for the second leg.

Monaco will be wary of the threat that the Polish side can cause them and I think we’ll see a professional performance from Felipe Luis’ side as a result. He’s won both of his games as Monaco boss so far, guiding them to a 1-0 win over Le Havre between these ties.

Monaco are one of the sides that could win the Conference League this year, and the home advantage they have should prove too much for a Gornik side who showed resolve in the first leg, but this is unlikely to be enough against a Monaco side that only lost five of their 17 home games in the league last season. 

I backed St Gallen games for goals quite often last season and this is the perfect scenario to see more here with the home side trailing 1-0 from the first leg encounter.

The first leg meeting saw plenty of goalscoring opportunities, despite the small margin of victory for Nordsjaelland. Both sides registered an xG in excess of 1.0 (2.13-1.76) and combined for 31 shots and 10 shots on target. 

Nordsjaelland’s keeper was actually awarded man of the match in that first leg, making six saves and preventing an xG of 1.06. It’s very unlikely he produces the same level of performance here, given that St Gallen scored 33 goals across 19 home games in the Swiss Super League last season.

Ajax should be one of the sides aiming to win the Conference League after navigating this qualifying process, and they’re in a strong position to do so having won the first leg 4-2 on the road.

There’s still just enough jeopardy in the tie from the two goals that Sion scored in front of their own fans to keep Ajax professional and interested in this second leg. They are likely to try and outscore Sion again, which was their approach in the first leg as we can tell from the xG battle (3.53-1.74).

Only four sides beat Ajax at home in the Eredivisie last season, and the first leg meeting would suggest that they just have too much firepower for a Sion side who also want to play on the front foot and have failed to keep a clean sheet across their last five matches.

I backed St Gallen games for goals quite often last season and this is the perfect scenario to see more here with the home side trailing 1-0 from the first leg encounter.

The first leg meeting saw plenty of goalscoring opportunities, despite the small margin of victory for Nordsjaelland. Both sides registered an xG in excess of 1.0 (2.13-1.76) and combined for 31 shots and 10 shots on target. 

Nordsjaelland’s keeper was actually awarded man of the match in that first leg, making six saves and preventing an xG of 1.06. It’s very unlikely he produces the same level of performance here, given that St Gallen scored 33 goals across 19 home games in the Swiss Super League last season.

Copenhagen were held to a 0-0 draw by FC Inter in the first leg meeting between these sides, despite registering an xG of 1.20 from 11 shots - seeing three of these efforts find the target.

FC Inter really needed to take a lead into this second leg tie to stand a chance of qualifying for the Conference League against a Copenhagen outfit who have vastly more experience than their opponents on the European stage, as well as a stellar home record during qualifying.

Copenhagen massively underperformed domestically last season, which is why they find themselves competing for a spot in the Conference League, but the early signs this season look a bit better with three wins from their opening four matches.

They’ve also eased through the qualifying process so far, beating Debrecen 8-1 in the last round over two legs after seeing off Polissya 2-1 at home following a draw on the road.

Gornik Zabrze missed their chance to have a real chance in this tie by falling to a 3-2 defeat to Monaco last week - though they did well to come back from two goals to keep the French side engaged for the second leg.

Monaco will be wary of the threat that the Polish side can cause them and I think we’ll see a professional performance from Felipe Luis’ side as a result. He’s won both of his games as Monaco boss so far, guiding them to a 1-0 win over Le Havre between these ties.

Monaco are one of the sides that could win the Conference League this year, and the home advantage they have should prove too much for a Gornik side who showed resolve in the first leg, but this is unlikely to be enough against a Monaco side that only lost five of their 17 home games in the league last season. 

Sticking with the Championship here and backing second favourites Partick Thistle to get a home win against rock-bottom Queen’s Park.

Thistle have started well, qualifying from their League Cup group and picking up 7 points from 9 in their opening three Championship matches.

In their only other home league match this season, they beat title favourites Livingston 2-0 in a match with no shortage of chances, recording 6 shots on target and 1.49 xG.

Queen’s Park have had a terrible start, losing all three of their opening games and conceding two goals in each.

In their most recent game against league newcomers and part-time side Stenhousemuir, they didn’t manage a single shot on target at home, with only 4 attempts in total.

Queen’s Park haven’t beaten Partick Thistle in the league since January 2023.

I fully expect the Jags to record a comfortable win over their Glasgow rivals on Saturday.

Getting in on this price early before it drops.

Ayr have had a decent start to the season, winning their League Cup group (including beating Premiership opposition) and collecting four points from their first two league games.

They did lose 2-0 away to Raith Rovers on Saturday but that was also a result of going down to 10 men in the 5th minute.

Morton are in a whole lot of mess. The Board have publicly said they’ve got the smallest budget in the league and, most recently, announced they might not have enough money to get through to December.

They’re joint bottom of the Championship with 0 points from their opening three games and finished bottom of their League Cup group, with losses to non-league Linlithgow and League One East Fife.

They have scored just one goal in seven competitive matches so far this season, and that was a 0.04 xG strike from 16-year-old Dean Black.

This price is a steal for Ayr. I fully expect it to be around 1.33 by KO on Saturday.

Regal Tiger has finished in the top three in all three of his career races.

All three of those races have come over this distance and on today's ground conditions.

Jockey, Billy Loughnane, is having an excellent season in contention for the Jockeys' Championship, it will be his first ride on Regal Tiger.

Regal Tiger has finished 2nd in each of his last two starts, showing signs of improvement in every race so far.

He's comfortable in these conditions and comes in as third-favourite for the race, at the time of writing.

Somers Isles finished 2nd in her first and only career race.

That 2nd-placed finish came over today's distance and ground conditions.

After coming 2nd as a 5/1 last time out, the bookies have shown her a lot more respect this time around and she's currently the favourite for this race.

Trainer, Andrew Balding, is in good form coming into today, with a win rate around 22% for the season.

Oisin Murphy is in the saddle, a high profile booking, and he'll have been encouraged by her promising debut.

Abundant has finished in the top four in six of his seven career starts.

That hit rate holds over today's distance, while he has secured a top four finish in three of four races over these ground conditions.

This is his best distance and he has been consistently competitive at this level.

He has finished in the top four in four of his last five races, and is rated by the market as the favourite for the race.

Abundant is capable in larger fields and can deliver on his consistency and promise today.

Show Me Gold has finished in the top two in four of her six career races.

That hit rate holds over today's distance, while she came 2nd in her only previous run over these ground conditions.

With two 2nds and a 1st in her last five races, it's no surprise to see her amongst the favourites for this one.

In-form jockey, Oisin Murphy, will be in the saddle which adds credibility to the promising start she has made.

She's improving consistently and should make the leap to Class 4 without any issues.