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The top four race looks really open this season and Chelsea have a real advantage by not being in Europe. 

Chelsea are not as far away from the Champions League spots as their 10th placed finish last year would suggest.

The Blues pretty much tanked their season after Enzo Maresca left the club and were around the top three positions while he was still in his role. 

Chelsea have signed Morgan Rogers as well as Marco Palestra already this summer and are heavily linked with a move for Maxence Lacroix at the time of writing. 

These additions add to the likes of Emegha and Quenda who had already secured moves to the West London side.

These signings signal a shift from Chelsea’s previous obsession with only securing young talent. Most of these players are also very tall and physical, an aspect that Chelsea desperately fell short for last year. 

Xabi Alonso is clearly a very capable manager having won the league title with Bayer Leverkusen and maintaining a 71% win percentage as Real Madrid boss.

He’s coming into an environment where the likes of Liverpool and Manchester City, the two powerhouses of the last 10 years, have new managers - a terrain which could be perfect for Alonso to finally make this Chelsea side competitive in the Premier League with only one game per week.

Stockport faced heartbreak in the League One Play-Off Final at the end of last season as they were beaten 4-1 by Bolton at Wembley. 

That was the second consecutive season in which Stockport have finished third and gone out in the playoffs, which tells me that they are a club that are doing a lot of things right at this level and should have a decent stab at getting out of League One at the third time of asking.

Stockport really didn’t do much wrong when you look at their underlying numbers from last season, they ranked within the top 5 sides for most key metrics and also had one of the league’s top scorers in Kyle Wootton.

Stockport were a similar price to register a Top 6 finish last year and I think the market is underestimating their chances again as a side that now understands League One quite well. Stockport are priced at 5.50 to earn promotion this year, which is a price also worth looking at. 

Barnet are definitely a side worth keeping an eye on this year after finishing eighth at the first time of asking after winning promotion to the EFL.

They finished just two points below a spot in the playoffs last year and notably had the second best away record of any side in the division. It was their inconsistent home form which saw them fall short of a Top 7 finish.

Barnet are third favourites to be promoted from League Two this term, only sitting behind Salford City and Bristol Rovers. We’ve got some insurance by backing them for a Top 7 finish even if they slightly underperform from pre-season expectations.

The Championship extending the number of playoff spots down to eighth is a really significant change this season and Wrexham could easily benefit.

Phil Parkinson’s side finished seventh last season, just two points away from Hull who eventually earned promotion to the Premier League via the playoffs. 

That finish would be enough this year for Wrexham to have a chance of promotion and I think we’ll see the Welsh side battling in the top half of the Championship again this term.

Wrexham have a really deep squad with a wealth of Championship and EFL experience that can aid them in a push for the playoffs this year. 

I think there’s a decent price on this when considering that the likes of Norwich, Sheffield United and Birmingham are shorter than Wrexham to secure a Top 8 Finish - I’d back Wrexham to be just as competitive as those sides.

It might take some time to get used to seeing West Ham in the Championship, given the size of the club, but the expectation is that they will bounce straight back up to the top flight.

While they have sold a couple of key players early in the transfer window, the club’s stance seems to be one of keeping the core of their squad together.

Jarrod Bowen is confirmed to be staying at the club, which is a massive boost for the Hammers.

West Ham have the most valuable squad in the Championship, with massive financial advantages which give them the edge.

This price of 3.0 is quite short for them to top the standings, but they have more than enough quality to do so over the course of the 46-game season.

Derby's position looks a lot more secure than Watford’s heading into this new season, and they will be hoping to push for promotion.

The Rams narrowly missed out on the play-off spots by just four points last season, which ultimately came down to the final day, but the expanded play-off spots from four to six could benefit Derby.

John Eustace has emphasised that he wants his team to aim high, and Derby have managed to permanently secure the services of Bobby Clark following his loan spell at the club last season.

They have also added some experienced heads, notably Charlie Taylor on a free transfer - that kind of shrewd business is another positive sign.

Derby have strengthened their position from last season, so there is an expectation for them to improve on their points tally of 69 to compete in the playoffs.

Want to back a manager who's been there and done it? Paul Warne has won promotion from League One four times, with two different clubs already.

They've already got strength in depth in the squad; the team they built in their League Two promotion last season had this season in mind, already operating with a wage budget towards the top end of League One.

Leicester and Sheffield Wednesday are top of the market, after going through serious off-field issues and cannot yet be relied on to produce consistent, competent performances, with squad depth a concern for both sides where it absolutely isn't for MK.

Warne has built a reliable squad he's familiar with and has a repeatable on-pitch method that has worked wonders in League One before.

He's got promotion pedigree and will be backed in January if they're in the mix.

Argyle were the best team in League One after Christmas last season who didn’t win promotion.

They ended up two points short of the play-offs after a remarkable revival, flirting with relegation early on, and they're still shrewd operators in the transfer market for the level.

They've got towards £5 million from the sale of Lorent Tolaj from Bristol City to reinvest.

Despite coming 9th, they actually had the 2nd-best away record in the league last season.

They're fifth-favourites for the league at the moment, but there are serious question marks around all the teams above them (Huddersfield, Luton, Sheff Wed and Leicester).

They won League One just over three years ago and have the stability on and off the pitch to push again.

They've shored up the defence that held them back last season, and are a team that look destined for a play-off finish.

Barnet are irresistible for the xG lovers.

They spent the entire 2025/26 season at the top end of the expected points table, despite lingering in mid-table in reality before putting together a late dart for the play-offs, only missing out by two points.

They won seven and drew two of their final nine league games, winning the last five on the bounce.

Carry that into this season, and they’ll be in the top three mix without a doubt.

With fourth-tier budget beasts like MK Dons and Notts County out of the way now (winning promotion last season), and three of the four coming down looking more likely to suffer a double relegation than bounce straight back, the stars have aligned pretty well for Barnet to mount a serious push.

Besiktas came away 1-0 winners on the road in the first leg, despite dropping down to 10 men for the final 18 minutes of the contest.

They probably should have scored a few more goals in the first leg having taken 22 shots and registering an xG 2.33. 

I also feel as though the underdogs missed their chance in the first leg, they failed to score in front of their own fans from nine shots on target - prompting a man of the match performance from Alexander Nubel in goal.

Besiktas only lost four of their 17 home games in the Super Lig last season and have won each of their last three qualifying games as part of the Europa League campaign. 

Gent have kept four consecutive clean sheets heading into the second leg of this tie and came away 1-0 winners in the first in what was a classic away performance in Europe.

Gent had a pretty mixed home record in the Belgian Pro League last term but Goteborg have really struggled on the road in the Allsvenskan this term - winning just two of their eight matches on the road, conceding 24 goals in the process (3.0 per game).

No side has conceded more goals on the road than Goteborg in the Swedish top flight this season, and their scoring power also isn’t convincing with only 11 goals scored across these games. 

Mateus Mane could be a real standout player for Wolves in the Championship this season having impressed in the second half of last campaign in what was a pretty poor season for the Wanderers overall.

Wolves have managed to keep the 18 year old despite heavy interest from Premier League clubs, highlighting the talent and ceiling of Mane who scored three goals across 19 starts in the top flight last term from 42 shots (2.11 per 90).

We saw this shot volume again in Wolves’ 3-0 win over Port Vale in the cup with Mane taking four shots. He could be a bit more accurate with these efforts as only 17 found the target last season (0.85 per 90), but the volume is promising enough to back him for an effort on target here - especially seeing as he’s as short as 1.1 for 2+ shots.

I’m quite surprised that Wolves have been able to keep Andre for this campaign. He was one of their more consistent players last term alongside Joao Gomes in midfield, who has departed to join Aston Villa.

Andre’s quality on the ball is paired with a tenacity that sees him get through quite a lot of work in the middle of the park. He committed 47 fouls across 30 starts in the Premier League last season, working out to an average of 1.53 fouls committed per 90.

His main opponent here is likely to be Todd Cantwell, who won 52 fouls across his 22 starts in the Championship last season (2.26 per 90). Cantwell is likely to be Blackburn’s main attacking threat in this game so Andre will have to keep a close eye on him.

We’ve had a chance to see both of these sides in competitive matches already this season in the first round of the EFL Cup.

Both sides saw 3+ goals in those games, with both covering the line we need here on their own in victories over Burton and Port Vale. 

Those were obviously lower league opponents and games that these sides were expected to win, but I can see Wolves covering this line on their own - as they have done in their last three matches.

Both sides also saw very high xG tallies in those cup ties, both allowing their opponents to register an xG of 1.75 or higher which may suggest a bit of defensive vulnerability at both ends.

Only Derby (109) and Hull (115) picked up more yellow cards in the Championship last season than Blackburn (100 - 2.17 per game).

Any side that travels to take on Wolves in the Championship this season will expect to spend a lot of time without the ball, given the quality that the Wanderers have in the squad and style of play that Cesar Peixoto wants to employ.

Wolves can be pretty feisty as well having committed more fouls than any other side in the Premier League last season, ranking second for that metric in the season prior. 

Blackburn committed 14 fouls in their cup win over Burton last time out, and were very fortunate to avoid a second caution after Todd Cantwell was cautioned early on. 

I expect Wolves to get off to a strong start here in what should play out to be a successful season following relegation from the Premier League.

Wolves have kept key players like Mateus Mane and Andre, as well as adding crucial experience through Kieran Trippier and Raul Jimenez which should help them be a competitive side at the top end of the Championship.

Blackburn only avoided the drop by five points in the Championship last term and haven’t really addressed many of the issues that left them in that situation. 

Tony Mowbray is a capable manager at this level, but I do have concerns about if he’s got the right tools to be as effective as he has been across previous stints at other Championship clubs.

I expect Wolves to get off to a strong start here in what should play out to be a successful season following relegation from the Premier League.

Wolves have kept key players like Mateus Mane and Andre, as well as adding crucial experience through Kieran Trippier and Raul Jimenez which should help them be a competitive side at the top end of the Championship.

Blackburn only avoided the drop by five points in the Championship last term and haven’t really addressed many of the issues that left them in that situation. 

Tony Mowbray is a capable manager at this level, but I do have concerns about if he’s got the right tools to be as effective as he has been across previous stints at other Championship clubs.

LASK have enjoyed a perfect start to the season in the Austrian Bundesliga, winning both of their opening league games to nil against Austria Wien and Grazer AK.

They’ve been really convincing in these victories as well, racking up an xG of 2.31 from 23 shots in beating Grazer before registering an xG of 3.58 from 22 shots in beating Austria Wien on the road.

LASK won the Austrian Bundesliga last season, beating out Sturm Graz and Salzburg to the title. They unsurprisingly boasted the best home record of any side, losing just three of their 16 games in front of their own fans.

They also scored more goals than any other side at home (28) which is a concern for a Ried side who only won four of their 16 away games last year and only mustered 17 goals across these matches.

Middlesbrough came within inches of promotion to the Premier League last season after losing out to Hull City in the Championship play off final a few months ago.

They look well prepared for another attempt at earning promotion to the top flight having added to their already impressive squad with the likes of Lankshear and Vitek as key signings.

Middlesbrough only lost five of their 23 home matches in the Championship last season, notably only conceding 18 goals across these games - only Ipswich (17) conceded fewer goals at home than Middlesbrough in the Championship last season.

Lincoln did very well to earn promotion from League One last season but there is a sizeable gap in quality between their squad and the sides expected to be competing at the top of the table in the Championship.

I’d expect any success that Lincoln do get in the Championship this season to be in front of their home fans with Boro notably being the shortest of any side in the EFL to register a victory on the opening weekend.

These sides faced off back in February as Bradford came away 2-0 winners over Peterborough in a really dominant performance.

Bradford registered an xG of 3.79 from 29 shots on that occasion, limiting Peterborough to just four shots and an xG of 0.64. 

Bradford were very tough to beat at home in League One last season, losing just three of their 23 matches in front of their own supporters. 

Bradford only conceded 17 goals across these games, only Stevenage conceded fewer goals than Bradford at home in League One last season (13). 

By contrast, Peterborough really struggled on the road in League One last term - winning just seven of their 23 away games. They didn’t really have a base level of performance to fall back on either, drawing just two of these games and losing 14.

PSV surprisingly dropped points in their opening game of the season against Fortuna Sittard, but the underlying numbers from that game paint a slightly different story.

PSV are clearly the best side in the Eredivisie, they won the league with ease last year and registered an xG of 2.56 in their 2-2 draw with Fortuna Sittard, with their opponents scoring twice from an xG of just 0.98 and 24% possession.

PSV came away 5-1 winners when these sides last met, and have actually beaten Excelsior in each of the last 14 head to head meetings between the sides - stretching all the way back to 2016.

Excelsior finished just six points ahead of the drop zone last season, notably winning just five of their 17 home games - the second worst home record in the division.

Both of these sides saw 3+ goals in their opening game of the campaign with Sittard impressively holding PSV to a 2-2 draw while Cambuur faced a 4-0 battering at the hands of Excelsior.

Fortuna Sittard also saw 3+ goals in all three of their friendly matches in the build up to the campaign, while Cambuur saw 3+ goals in two of their three friendly matches ahead of the season starting.

Fortuna Sittard saw 57 goals across their 17 home games in the Eredivisie last season (3.35 per game). Cambuur competed in the Eerste Divisie last season, with their 19 away games producing 60 goals (3.15 per game).

Bolton were a really entertaining team to watch in League One last season and should still see plenty of goals in their games now that they have made the step up to the Championship.

I expect Bolton to battle in the bottom half of the Championship this term as a newly promoted side, but they can definitely cause surprises and be an awkward side to play in front of their own supporters.

Bolton scored 46 goals at home in League One last season (2.0 per game), only the two automatically promoted sides in Cardiff (50) and Lincoln (53) scored more goals at home than Steven Schumacher’s side.

Preston saw 2+ goals in their first round game of the EFL Cup as they progressed on penalties after a 1-1 draw in normal time. Their away fixtures saw an average of 2.56 goals per game in the Championship last term.

I think we’re going to see Leicester caught out at the back quite often in the early parts of their League One campaign as the Foxes attempt to implement the style of Russell Martin.

Martin is very stubborn when it comes to his style of play, he wants his team to build out from the back and focus on long passing sequences which suffocate the opposition.

This means that Leicester will have a lot of the ball, but a lot of this possession will be in their own half - or even around their own penalty area, making them vulnerable to mistakes.

Notts County held Burnley to a 1-1 draw in their EFL Cup first round game last time out, eventually bowing out on penalties. 

They earned promotion from League Two last season, notably scoring 45 goals across their 23 home matches (1.95 per game). No side scored more goals at home in League Two last season than Notts County.

MK Dons are heavily fancied to be competitive at the top end of League One this season having earned promotion from League Two with an 86 point haul.

MK Dons boasted the best away record of any side in the division in last season, losing just four of their 23 matches and netting 45 goals in the process - more than any other side in the division on their travels.

Oxford have dropped down from the Championship after losing out on the relegation tussle which formed across the final few weeks at the bottom of the table. They only won seven of their 23 home games, but did manage to score 24 goals across these matches - giving both sides enough of a base to get on the scoresheet. 

I really like how Luton are progressing under Jack Wilshere and the momentum they had towards the end of last season looks to have carried over with the away side running out 3-0 winners in the first round of the EFL Cup against Gillingham.

Luton went on an unreal run towards the end of last campaign, avoiding defeat in all 12 of their matches since the 10th March. They won nine of these games as well, so Wilshere is clearly building a very capable side for this level which has been bolstered by some smart business.

Reading finished 11 points below Luton in League One last season and only managed to win 10 of their 23 home matches. Luton have plenty of firepower on the road too, having scored 31 goals across their 23 away matches in League One last season - avoiding defeat in 13 of these games. 

Rochdale’s promotion from the National League was one of the stories of the year last season after a gruelling battle with York that saw both sides finish on 100+ points.

Rochdale missed out on automatic promotion despite this impressive tally, but navigated the playoffs to earn promotion to the EFL after beating Boreham Wood in the final on penalties.

Rochdale scored 40 goals across their 23 away matches in the National League last season (1.73 per game) and face off against a Newport side that only avoided the drop by four points in the end after a poor campaign.

Newport conceded 37 goals at home in League Two last season (1.60 per game), only Harrogate Town - the side with the worst home record in the division - conceded more goals than Newport in front of their own supporters (38).

Both of these sides suffered bruising defeats in the first round of the EFL Cup last time out with Oldham falling to Stoke in a 2-0 defeat while Port Vale lost 3-0 to Wolves on the road.

Oldham had a decent season last term, finishing 10 points adrift of the playoff spots in the end - but they were in the race at points during the campaign. Their 23 home games produced 48 goals (2.08 per game) and they face a Port Vale side who have dropped down from League One.

Port Vale conceded 36 goals on the road in League One last season (1.56 per game) and may find this an awkward test as they attempt to bounce back into League One at the first time of asking.