Tips Hub

Did you know that PSG have only kept one clean sheet in their 10 games across all competitions this season?

That shutout came against Brest a few weeks ago, who were actually pretty unlucky not to score themselves having registered an xG of 1.35 from their 16 shots.

PSG have seen this selection land in each of their five matches since that 1-0 victory, and their xG totals in those games suggest that this will be a high scoring game:

Marseille (1.98 xG) 1-2 PSG (5.09 xG)
PSG (4.25 xG) 3-1 Le Mans (1.43 xG) 
Man City (2.63 xG) 2-4 PSG (1.83 xG) 
Strasbourg (1.47 xG) 1-3 PSG (2.69 xG) 
PSG (3.70 xG) 4-2 Barcelona (2.23 xG) 

Lyon have only lost one of their opening seven matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 13 goals in the process (1.85 per game). This tends to be an exciting fixture too, each of the last seven head to head meetings have seen this selection land.

Lyon have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches, conceding three goals against Hoffenheim in the Europa League last week. They’ve seen BTTS in three of those games, and I think they have enough to get on the scoresheet in a high scoring encounter.

Budimir has scored in each of his last three appearances for Osasuna, and is their top scorer in the league this season.

He has scored seven goals from an xG of 6.03, suggesting his finishing has been of higher quality then the chances he is getting. He gets plenty of opportunities to hit the target too, averaging 1.85 shots on target per 90 from 3.17 shots.

He is also an aerial threat, registering nine shots from headers this season. This is due to Osasuna's wide, direct play style that often leads to plenty of crosses into the box, with their usual main outball coming from the right hand side with Garcia, who averages 2.03 successful crosses per 90.

Another appealing factor is that he is also Osasuna’s designated penalty taker, and four of his goals this season have come from the spot. 

When you look at Sevilla’s record, they are weaker defensively when playing at home. They have conceded seven goals across those four games, whilst also conceding 3+ in their last three games. Granted, two of those came against Barcelona and Real Madrid, however, Budimir has registered at least one shot on target in seven of his nine games, and I’d be surprised if he didn’t hit the target today.

Youssouf Fofana leads the Sevilla team for most shots on target per 90 this season, averaging 0.99. 

He was deployed in a more defensive role for Sevilla last time out, due to the injury to Giorgi Kochorashvili, however, has still managed to record two shots, both finding the target. He is averaging 1.97 shots per 90 and had at least one shot in five of his six appearances this season, with the 2+ line landing in his last two games. 

He also averaged 1.83 shots per 90 for Milan last season, suggesting this is a consistently strong aspect to his game.

Kochorashvili is looking set to return to the starting lineup tonight, so I would expect Fofana to be pushed up the field operating in a more advanced role, giving him greater opportunity to find himself in shooting positions. 

He is a threat both inside the box, and outside, averaging 3.95 touches in the opposition box per 90, whilst half of his total shots this season have come from range. In Osasuna’s last three games, their opponents shots read: 19, 20, 9. The lowest of the three coming when new manager, Arraste took charge, however, his knack for playing with a high defensive line could see Sevilla able to pick Osasuna apart here.

This game looks set up perfectly for fouls.

Both sides are very duel heavy, especially in midfield, with both teams averaging 14.6 fouls committed per game. Sevilla have won the most fouls in the league this season, which leads my focus onto Moncayola.

Moncayola is a defensive midfielder who loves a duel. He averages 3.34 duels won per 90, with 44.4% of these being successful this season. Similarly, he averages 2.37 tackles per 90, which is the highest average across the midfielders in the Osasuna squad.

His averages for fouls committed per 90 are also strong, with 1.39, and with both sides duel heavy play styles, I would expect him to find himself in a few battles today. 

His likely opponent, Fofana, records 1.6 successful dribbles per 90, whilst Moncayola finds himself getting dribbled past 0.98 times per game. This is a battle worth keeping an eye on, as I can see Moncayola finding Fofana a handful tonight, especially with him likely to play in a more advanced role.

I think that Gabriel Suazo will have his hands full tonight. He has already committed the most fouls for Sevilla this season, and averages 2.00 fouls committed per 90, as well as receiving two yellows.

However, it is actually his match up that really stands out to me. 

Arraste’s teams are known to play very wide and direct, using their wide players as outballs to break on the counter attack. We saw this at his first stint at Osasuna, where his philosophy included playing with few touches in transition to get the ball up the pitch and wide as quickly as possible, to allow for plenty of crosses into the box.

We saw this play out in his first game back against Racing Santander, where right-back, Rosier, and right-winger, Garcia, were the focal points of Osasuna’s attack.  

I would expect Arraste to deploy a similar play style here, especially considering they won with it last week. Given that the right side is their main focus for attacks, Suazo should be heavily involved here. Both players were brought down in this system against Racing, and given Suazo’s record, I would expect similar to occur tonight.

Abner Vinícius will have a tough job dealing with PSG's wingers, who get fouled a lot.

Désiré Doué won three fouls against Barcelona and drew the foul that got João Cancelo booked.

He's averaging 2.39 fouls won per 90 minutes this season and could end up facing Abner, although he might switch sides with Kvaratskhelia injured.

Maghnes Akliouche is another player Abner could have to deal with, averaging one foul won per 90 minutes this season.

Abner's picked up two yellow cards this season, both away from home. One came against Lens, where he also gave away three fouls.

Jérôme Brisard also refereed the last PSG vs Lyon game and showed six yellow cards. That's not great news for Abner, especially if he ends up giving away fouls like he has in some of his away games.

Overbudget is Racing Ratings' NAP of the day, with a 9.6/10.

She's the joint-3rd favourite with the bookies, at the time of writing, but does come into the event off the back of two consecutive wins.

She's won two of her three races on this ground, with an uplift in form coming with the move on the all-weather surface.

Front-running tactics appear to have contributed to the strong recent form as well, winning over course and distance in her last two runs.

Andrew Mullen is in the saddle again, having ridden her to victory at this track earlier this month.

Cagliari have a dreadful record when travelling to face Roma, failing to win any of their last 11 trips to the Stadio Olimpico.

Roma earned a point on the road against Napoli last time out, scoring three goals in an end to end game that saw Gian Piero Gasperini’s side record an xG of 1.90 from 24 shots.

Roma have won three of their four matches at home in Serie A this season, scoring 10 goals and only conceding three. Only Milan (2) and Como (1) have conceded fewer goals at home than Roma in the Italian top flight this term.

Cagliari enter this game having failed to win any of their last three matches, losing the last two to nil against Monza and AC Milan. 

They’ve only scored six goals across their eight matches, and I don’t think that scoring power will be enough to trouble a Roma side who have only been outscored by Inter so far domestically.

These have been two of the top performing sides in League Two in the early stages of the season, setting up an entertaining clash with Barnet sitting in an automatic promotion spot, and York not far behind the playoffs.

Barnet have seen BTTS in each of their last four matches ahead of this one, losing just one of these games. They’ve only managed to win half of their home games in League Two this term, notably conceding nine goals across their six matches but scoring 12 (2.0 per game).

York have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches, avoiding defeat in all of these games. They are yet to win away from home in League Two this term, but have scored in four of their five away assignments. 

These two faced off in the National League last year, with Barnet coming away 3-1 winners on that occasion. Both have started the season well, and have enough to get on the scoresheet.

Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen played each other earlier this month in a game that ended 2-2, with 32 shots between them.

BTTS has landed in every Werder Bremen Bundesliga game so far, with the team averaging two goals scored and two conceded per game.

Their defence has been so shaky that they even conceded twice at home to Paderborn, who have one of the weakest attacks in the Bundesliga.

Dortmund have scored in every home game this season and are averaging 18 shots per game at home.

The problem for the hosts is that they've struggled against some of the stronger attacks they've faced, conceding twice against Villarreal, Bayern Munich and Bremen.

The visitors will have Füllkrug, the Bundesliga's top scorer, and Grüll, one of the league's top assist providers, which makes BTTS look even more likely here.

Torino and Como have both been looking sharp going forward in their last four games, but they've also had their fair share of problems at the back.

Torino have conceded in all four home games so far, including against Udinese, who are fighting to avoid relegation.

Como haven't kept a single clean sheet away from home in Serie A either, even against teams that don't score many goals, like Genoa.

Fàbregas' side have been looking much better going forward, though, averaging 20 shots and 1.71 xG per away game.

Anastasios Douvikas has scored in Como's last four games, including twice against Sassuolo in the previous round, and he's available for this one.

Giovanni Simeone has been involved in three goals over his last two games and could have a big part to play against a team that's averaging 1.78 xGA away from home.

Lazio are playing their best football of the season right now, with one of the strongest attacks in the league and at least two goals scored in each of their last six games.

They beat Juventus 3-0 away from home, drew 2-2 with Milan and now face a Sassuolo side that have conceded in all eight league games so far.

The problem is that Lazio are averaging 1.60 xGA away from home and are up against a team that had scored in every league game until the last round.

They gave away 17 shots against bottom-of-the-table Venezia and even conceded against Parma, who have the worst attack in the league.

Sassuolo's strong home record makes BTTS look even better here, especially with key attacking players like Vasilije Adžić and Domenico Berardi available.

Donyell Malen is Roma's top scorer this season, with six of their 19 goals in Serie A.

Roma have the second-best attack in the league, averaging 18 shots and 2.13 xG per game.

Malen has also scored three goals in the Champions League and leads Roma in both shots and shots on target this season, averaging 4.89 shots per 90 minutes.

Cagliari haven't looked great at the back lately. They lost 4-0 to Monza and then 2-0 at home to Bologna in their last game.

Malen has scored in each of his last two home games, and he's now facing a team that gives up an average of 17 shots per game.

With Malen in good form and Cagliari giving up so many chances, he's got a great chance of scoring again.