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Harry Kane has been a lot shorter for a shot on target during this World Cup so this is a decent price for him to find the target at least once in what looks to be a challenging assignment for England on paper.

Kane is clearly the star of this England side, he’s scored five goals already from 18 shots (4.58 per 90), including a brace against DR Congo last time out to spare England the embarrassment of an early exit. He’s seen nine of his efforts find the target (2.29 per 90) and will be an obvious threat to this Mexico backline.

Kane scored eight goals across eight starts during qualifying and has really never looked sharper in the final third as he does at the moment, benefitting from Tuchel building the team around his strengths. He averaged 2.11 shots on target per 90 during qualifying, 2+ shots on target is also worth looking at (2.6).

Raul Jimenez scored a wonderful goal in Mexico’s Round of 32 clash with Ecuador to guarantee their spot in this stage of the tournament. He’s been effective when leading the line for his country, scoring two goals across his three starts from 10 shots (3.91 per 90).

He’s seen four of his efforts find the target (1.57 per 90) and has been using his head often with half of his total efforts so far being headed shots. This is not that surprising when looking at how Mexico play, they have a real advantage with the altitude here and look to make the most of that by making the pitch wide and seeking out their striker through crosses from their fullbacks. 

Jimenez has found the target in all three of his matches at the World Cup and will offer a threat to England, particularly aerially as his direct opponents in Konsa and Guehi may be a bit vulnerable to those crosses from Mexico’s fullbacks as they aren’t as dominant in the air as someone like Jimenez.

The market really isn’t sure about England’s chances in this game, their lines on quite a few angles have been lowered compared to their other matches - mainly due to the altitude and intense atmosphere of the Azteca.

I do think this has been overplayed quite a bit. It’s definitely a factor, but you can’t talk about the conditions without looking at the individual quality that will take to the field. Player for player, England are a much better side than Mexico and Thomas Tuchel’s side can produce those individual moments of brilliance as a result. 

England have registered 5+ corners in all four of their World Cup matches, they rely on these situations quite a bit which isn’t that surprising as Tuchel mentioned multiple times in the build up to the tournament that he wanted to assemble a side that mirrored the style of the Premier League. 

Mexico are conceding 4.00 corners per game at the World Cup and I think they will also fall victim to a high corner count from the Three Lions, which England have shown no reason why they would not cover other than being heavily impacted by the conditions - a factor that I think has now been completely overexaggerated.

Raul Rangel is one of only two keepers who are yet to concede at the World Cup and have a 100% save percentage - the other being Spain’s Unai Simon.

Mexico’s defensive organisation has been impressive at times, though Rangel has been there when they’ve needed him. He’s made six saves across his four starts (1.55 per 90), though England can definitely test him more regularly as the best side that Mexico have had to take on so far.

England have been creating quite a lot of chances, no side has missed more big opportunities than the Three Lions (15), which may sound like a negative stat on paper but it shows that Tuchel’s side are getting in positions to hurt the opposition.

England are averaging 6.80 shots on target per game at the World Cup and have drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in all four of their World Cup assignments to date.

Marc Guehi has been fouled in each of his three starts at the World Cup so far, drawing 2+ fouls in two of these games - including winning seven (!) fouls against Ghana.

It’s clearly a strong part of Guehi’s game and he’s got the ideal opponent to be fouled at least once again here. Guehi will line up against Raul Jimenez, who can be overly aggressive which his challenges and has committed four fouls across his three starts so far (1.57 per 90).

Mexico like going long into Jimenez, so we can expect the now Wolves striker to have quite a few battles with the likes of Konsa and Guehi and there should be a few occasions where he oversteps the mark and brings Guehi to the ground.

Guehi averaged 1.09 fouls won per 90 during the most recent Premier League campaign, so it’s clearly an area where he excels and he has a promising direct opponent here to win at least one foul again.

France are averaging exactly 6.00 corners per game at the World Cup so far, having at least five corners in 75% of their matches.

I do think France find a way to win this game quite comfortably, but it may take a lot of probing to find that opening goal as Paraguay are very organised at the back and will shut off central areas, forcing France out wide to build their attacks.

This was the case for France against Sweden last time out; it took Deschamps’ side until the 45th minute to open the scoring through Kylian Mbappe in a game that saw them rack up nine corners.

Kylian Mbappe absolutely loves the World Cup.

It’s the first time in quite a few months that I've seen him play with a smile on his face, though any striker probably would if he had the likes of Olise and Dembele playing behind him.

Mbappe has scored six goals across his four starts at the World Cup, netting 2+ goals in three of his four matches and setting up two goals in the game where he didn’t find the back of the net.

He’s had 21 shots across these appearances (5.38 per 90), seeing 13 of them find the target (3.33 per 90).

This has been a World Cup defined by the individual performances of big-name players so far, and Mbappe can once again take centre stage in a game where I expect him to match his shot output across the tournament so far.

France look unstoppable right now.

Their front four of Mbappe, Olise, Dembele, and Doue/Barcola is really well balanced and near impossible to keep a handle on. If you focus on stopping one, all it does is create space for another world-class attacker, so it’s hard to think of a way to stop this France attack.

Paraguay can be stubborn and should be confident, having already caused one of the biggest upsets in the tournament by knocking out Germany, but France will cause them real problems, and I think they find a way through at least twice.

France have scored 3+ goals in all four of their World Cup matches so far, conceding just twice across these games as well. They’ll be applying pressure to Paraguay from the very first whistle, and their individual quality should be able to find a way through what is expected to be a very deep and low block.

When assessing Paraguay’s potential threats in this game, no player stands out more than Julio Enciso, who scored the opener against Germany last time out from three shots overall.

It’s clear that Enciso has quality, though Brighton fans would probably tell you that he doesn’t show his quality often enough. He’s capable of the spectacular, however, and that may be what Paraguay need if they are to find a way through this tie.

Enciso has taken eight shots across his four starts so far (2.21 per 90), which is an output that almost mirrors his shot volume for Strasbourg during the most recent Ligue 1 campaign (2.90 per 90).

Paraguay are going to have to be as physical and aggressive as possible to stop this French side from finding gaps in their backline.

No side has picked up more yellow cards than Paraguay at the World Cup (9), with the South American side also averaging 13.3 fouls per game.

Matias Galaraza is a versatile player who has been playing off the left-hand side for Paraguay, but basically has just defensive instructions to lock down that side of the pitch.

He’s committed seven fouls across his three starts at the World Cup (2.11 per 90) and will now have to manage the duel threat of Olise and Dembele, who operate on that side of the pitch.

Galaraza also committed 18 fouls across his eight starts in the MLS during the most recent campaign (2.43 per 90), so this is clearly a consistent part of his game that should come to the fore here.

Olise and Dembele are winning 2.37 fouls per 90 between them at this World Cup, so there should be plenty for Galaraza to deal with.

Ousmane Dembele has struggled on the international stage in the past, but looks to have put those issues behind him with four goals and two assists at the World Cup so far across just four starts.

Didier Deschamps deserves serious credit for how he’s set up this France attack. I was a bit worried about the balance of having three superstars like Olise, Mbappe, and Dembele in the same frontline, but he’s made it work by moving Olise centrally and allowing Dembele to stay wide and cut inside onto his dangerous left foot.

Dembele has scored 36% of his total goals for France in this tournament, which highlights how tough he has found it previously in a French shirt but also shows how he’s now relishing playing with Mbappe and Olise. He’s France’s second most likely goal scorer behind Mbappe, who is much shorter to score here.

I see Enciso as being Paraguay’s only real threat in this contest, and his willingness to take on speculative efforts makes him worth backing for a shot on target in this clash.

Paraguay will be limited from open play, but in Enciso, they have a player who will be willing to stretch the French backline and run beyond, which may cause a few small problems for Upamecano and Saliba in transition.

Enciso scored against Germany last time out from three shots overall, and has had eight shots at the World Cup so far (2.21 per 90). He needs to be a bit more accurate with these efforts, but he did average 1.05 shots on target per 90 for Strasbourg during the most recent campaign, as well as 1.24 shots on target per 90 during qualifying.

If you’ve been following my picks regularly for the World Cup, then you’ll know I like a bit of a moan about referees and the volume of cards we’ve seen at this tournament - and I’m going to do it again.

The referees have been far too lenient. I like some of the new rules that are in place, but there have been multiple instances where yellow-card-worthy challenges have gone unpunished.

I’m hoping that changes now we’re into the business end of the World Cup, and despite the leniency we’ve seen, Paraguay have collected the most yellow cards of any side so far (9), so they should be one of the better nations to back for cards.

Juan Caceres was booked in Paraguay's opening game against the USA and has committed eight fouls across his four matches at the World Cup (2.06 per 90). He plays his domestic football for Dinamo Moscow, picking up eight yellow cards across his 23 starts with a foul average of 1.96 fouls committed per 90.

Paraguay are going to make this a real battle, and Adrian Rabiot is likely to get caught up in that as France’s main midfield enforcer.

Many question why Rabiot is even in the France starting lineup given the talent that Deschamps has at his disposal, but Rabiot is very good at giving the team a bit of structure and acting as a physical presence just behind the talented frontline.

Rabiot committed four fouls against Sweden last time out, taking his overall tally to seven for the tournament (2.33 per 90). He’ll be tasked with keeping an eye on Paraguay in transition, and may have to make a few tactical fouls as he did in the last round.

Mbappe has scored six goals across his four starts at the World Cup, netting 2+ goals in three of his four matches and setting up two goals in the game where he didn’t find the back of the net.

He’s had 21 shots across these appearances (5.38 per 90), seeing 13 of them find the target (3.33 per 90).

This has been a World Cup defined by the individual performances of big-name players so far, and Mbappe can once again take centre stage in a game where I expect him to find the back of the net.

Brazil conceded first against Japan last time out and I think they could have been punished more by the Asian side if Japan had been a bit more bold in their attacking approach.

Norway will be able to offer that additional attacking threat having scored in all four of their matches, scoring 2+ goals in three of these games. 

The other aspect for Norway to worry about is the fact that all four of their games have seen BTTS, their own backline isn’t that strong and is likely to concede against Brazil’s talented frontline.

Brazil have shipped goals against both Japan and Morocco in their more challenging matches so far but also have scored in all four of their games, netting 2+ goals in three of these fixtures.

Brazil covered this line against Japan last time out with six corners and leveraged their advantage in aerial duels well to come away 2-1 winners with Casemiro heading home the equaliser.

Norway conceded 14 corners against Ivory Coast last time out. That high corner tally was a result of the African side recognising that Norway’s main weakness is in the fullback areas and they got the ball to their wingers to go 1v1 as often as possible.

Brazil are averaging 5.75 corners per game at the World Cup, winning 4+ corners in all four of their matches. Norway have conceded 4+ corners in all four of their matches as well and I think we’ll see Brazil try to get at them by exposing their fullbacks.

I’ve come back to this selection regularly throughout the World Cup as I don’t really trust Brazil’s backline. 

Carlo Ancelotti has never been a coach that obsesses over tactical details and I think that shows a little bit in the structure of Brazil’s defence, Norway should have chances and I expect Alisson to be called into action at least twice.

Alisson has had to make 11 saves across his four starts at the World Cup (2.75 per 90) with a save percentage of 84.6%, a metric that was closer to 90% before Brazil took on Japan in the Round of 32.

Alisson was just as busy during qualifying for Brazil, making 26 saves across nine starts (2.93 per 99) with a similar save percentage (81.2%).

Haaland has been incredible at the World Cup so far, netting five goals across his three starts in the competition.

He’s benefited from being in a side that is clearly suited to his strengths with Norway well aware of the fact that they’ve got one of the best goalscorers in world football at the moment leading the line.

Haaland has taken 14 shots across his three starts at the World Cup (4.67 per 90), seeing nine of these attempts find the target (3.00 per 90) and should be encouraged by the fact that Brazil haven’t looked completely secure at the back with Japan and Morocco scoring against them. 

Haaland also scored more goals than any other player during qualifying (16) from 28 shots on target (3.57 per 90). He’s clearly adapted well to the stage of a World Cup and I think he will continue to be a real threat in this encounter.

Vinicius Jr is another superstar who has already lit up the World Cup with four goals across his four starts and it looks like he really enjoys playing under Carlo Ancelotti.

Vinicius Jr didn’t manage to get on the scoresheet against Japan last time out but looked lively throughout the encounter. 

He managed three shots in that game, seeing two of them find the target and almost scored a wonderful individual goal which highlights the confidence he’s playing with at the moment. 

Vinicius Jr has taken 15 shots overall (3.85 per 90) which is a really promising shot volume when looking to back him for a shot on target. He’s seen 10 of these efforts find the target (2.56 per 90), which shows that he’s pretty accurate with these efforts too.

Only Michael Olise (5) has registered more assists at the World Cup than Bruno Guimaraes (4) who has been a real creative asset for this Brazil side in a midfield set up which otherwise hasn’t been too impressive.

Casemiro and Paqueta are obviously decent players, but they lack the urgency and creativity of Guimaraes who has stepped up as Brazil’s best midfielder at the tournament.

Guimaraes set up two goals across his 16 starts for Brazil during qualifying, averaging 1.43 chances created per 90. That figure has jumped to 2.38 chances created per 90 at the World Cup with an assist landing in three of his four matches.

His role on set pieces could be crucial for Brazil given that Norway have conceded 4+ corners in all four of their matches and Brazil have real aerial threats in the box for Guimaraes to try and pick out such as Gabriel and Casemiro.

Antonio Nusa is such a talented player and needs to show the quality he displayed for Norway’s opener against Ivory Coast last time out more often. That goal was really impressive, but he needs to be more involved in the game outside of that moment. 

He’s got a real advantage here as he’ll be lining up against Danilo at right back for Brazil, a position that’s been a problem area for Ancelotti as Brazil don’t really have a quality player to play in that role - which is the most obvious weakness in the Brazil backline and overall setup. 

Nusa posted a promising shot volume during qualifying with 21 shots across his six starts (3.96 per 90), resulting in two goals. He does need to refine his accuracy to get the shot on target we require here, but I expect him to beat his man on a few occasions to give himself that opportunity.

Kristoffer Ajer hasn’t picked up a card at the World Cup yet but is going to find this assignment tough with the Brentford defender having to deal with Matheus Cunha and Lucas Paqueta in central areas.

Ajer can play all across the backline, regularly lining up as a fullback for Brentford during the most recent campaign, but plays as a centre back for his national side which gives them an appealing 1v1 duel when looking to back him for a caution.

Cunha is very good at moving around a backline with his clever movement, often dropping deep and taking one of the opposition centre backs with him to open up space for Rayan and Vinicius Jr on either side. 

Cunha hasn’t quite shown his foul winning ability at the World Cup so far but this tends to be one of the stronger parts of his game. 

He averaged 1.94 fouls won per 90 during the most recent Premier League campaign and faces up against Ajer, who isn’t as mobile and picked up four cards across 20 starts in the Premier League last season.

This matchup between Brazil and Norway looks like one of the more enticing round of 16 matchups, and it’s the South American side who come in as favourites.

However, Norway are not a side to underestimate here. They beat a strong Ivory Coast side 2-1 in the previous round, after also winning 3-2 against Senegal in the group stages. Norway were beaten 4-1 by France, but it is worth noting that they opted for significant rotation. 

Erling Haaland did not feature at all in that match, but he is almost certain to play the full 90 against Brazil, barring any mitigating circumstances. Haaland has scored five goals at the World Cup so far - that includes a brace against both Senegal and Iraq in the group stages.

The Man City striker was the hero against Ivory Coast last time out, as it was his goal which turned out to be the winner. He has been in exceptional form at the World Cup, and will hope to extend his scoring streak against Brazil here.

Mexico made it four wins from four at the World Cup against Ecuador in the previous round, as they came away with a 2-0 win. They are yet to concede at the World Cup so far, but this matchup against England promises to be their toughest one yet.

The Three Lions secured the comeback against DR Congo in the Round of 32 to progress in the tournament, led by none other than Harry Kane. The England captain bagged his second brace of the World Cup so far, taking his tally to five goals. The 32-year-old has been able to carry his incredible domestic form forward to the World Cup - he scored 61 goals in 51 appearances across all competitions for Bayern Munich this season. 

England will carry a massive threat whenever Kane is on the field, but keeping this Mexico side at bay will prove to be a challenge, especially at the Azteca Stadium. This will be like a home game for Mexico, and the 2,200m altitude will give them the physical advantage as well