Florian Wirtz leads Leverkusen in assists (19) this season and is second in Xabi Alonso’s side when it comes to scoring (18).

The 21-year-old posts a goal or an assist 1.01 times per 90 minutes across all competitions in 2023/24, which improves to 1.16 per 90 in the Europa League.

He has scored with five of his last seven shots on target in all competitions and comes into this match having been well rested by his manager.

He has started only one of the last five games, but as one of Leverkusen’s undoubted aces, he will likely play as much of this game as is required.

Leverkusen have won at least six corners in 13 of their last 18 matches in all competitions. Furthermore, they have won at least five corners in 18 of their last 19 matches, suggesting there is a high probability they will be in this vicinity.

In the Europa League this season, Alonso’s side averaged 5.83 corners per 90 – the seventh-highest figure among all clubs in the competition.

They are likely to play on the front foot and put Atalanta, who typically do not concede many corners, under significantly more pressure than they are used to. The Italian side have conceded four or more corners in three of their six knockout round games.

This has the potential to be a fiery affair, even with Atalanta posting just 2.00 cards per game in the Europa League and Bayer Leverkusen picking up just 1.67.

Recent trends shows Gian Piero Gasperini’s side increasingly picking up cards. Having seen at least three in each of their last two matches, which could be a sign of fatigue as the end of the season approaches.

Bayer Leverkusen have also seen at least three cards in five of their last eight games. When they had only reached that figure 11 times in the previous 43 matches.

Referee Istvan Kovacs averages 5.30 cards per match on average this season, with this figure climbing to over six per game in European competition.

Xabi Alonso’s side remain famously undefeated this season and come into this match in excellent form, having won four of their last five matches. Confidence in the squad will be soaring after recent performances, while many of the key starters such as Florian Wirtz and Victor Boniface come into this game well rested and fresh having had their minutes managed in recent games.

Atalanta will be without midfielder regular Marten De Roon while there are major doubts over Sead Kolasinac, who has been a key defensive figure.

While Leverkusen have already won the Bundesliga, Atalanta have no title-winning pedigree in this team, with the pressure ramped up after missing out on the Coppa Italia last week as they lost 1-0 to Juventus.

Atalanta have conceded 16 or more fouls in a staggering eight of their last 15 matches, suggesting that their price on this market is far too big.

They have not been shy about giving away free kicks in the Europa League knockout stage. The fewest number they have given away in a game is 14 while their average number of indiscretions sits at just over 16 for those encounters.

They are liable to spend more time on the back foot than they are used to against a team that has typically enjoyed 60% or more possession this season. Leverkusen have only seen less than 57% of the ball once in the Europa League knockout stage, suggesting they will exert pressure and win free kicks as a result.

Atalanta have a strong tendency to pick up high numbers of yellow cards in matches they lose. La Dea have received at least three cautions in each of their last seven defeats, including the 1-0 Europa League loss to Liverpool in Bergamo in April.

They’re likely to attract attention to themselves with a high foul count.
Referee Istvan Kovacs is a no-nonsense official, who typically hands out high numbers of cautions in each match he oversees. The Romanian averages over six cards per game in European football this season.

In Kovacs’ previous European final, he dished out five cautions as Roma beat Feyenoord 1-0 in last season’s Conference League showpiece. Four of those bookings went to the Italian team.