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Northern Ireland v Bulgaria
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Kick Off: Tuesday 15th October at 19:45
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Competition: UEFA Nations League
Northern Ireland have some catching up to do in Nations League C Group 3, though a victory over current leaders Bulgaria at Windsor Park on Tuesday evening would help to steady the ship for the Green and White Army.
Michael O’Neil’s side had to be content with one point – but probably deserved all three – following a solid display in Belarus on Saturday, and they will need to find a more ruthless edge to oust the unbeaten Bulgarians here.
⭐ Northern Ireland v Bulgaria Best Bets
Northern Ireland failed to make the most of a flurry of decent opportunities in their 0-0 draw at Belarus on Saturday and despite mustering 15 attempts and seven shots on target, their inability to finish chances was ultimately their undoing again.
Michael O’Neil’s outfit have failed to score in two of their first three fixtures in UNL C Group 3 and a well-drilled Bulgarian side have the tools to leave Northern Ireland frustrated again at Windsor Park.
Bulgaria are unbeaten and have yet to concede a goal in this season’s Nations League, while their overall stretch without a loss spans nine games in a run that started in November last year.
Ilian Iliev’s well-marshalled unit conceded just five shots on target across their first three UNL fixtures of 2024 combined and they kept Northern Ireland at arm’s length (1-0) when the teams met in Plovdiv last month. The tough-to-topple Bulgarians represent superb value in the double chance market here.
🔍 Northern Ireland v Bulgaria Players to Watch
⚪ Conor Bradley
Conor Bradley was handed the captain’s armband against Belarus on Saturday and the 21-year-old did his best to deliver a skipper’s performance for Northern Ireland, racking up three attempts on goal in the Green and White Army’s stalemate in Zalaegerszeg.
The Liverpool starlet, who was deployed at right-wing-back, had 77 touches against Belarus, which was the third-highest tally posted by any player at the ZTE Arena. Bradley has been averaging 2.67 shots per 90 in the Nations League and it’s clear that his teammates have been instructed to feed him the ball whenever possible. With that service likely to continue, expect Bradley to clock at least two more shots against Bulgaria.
🔴 Kiril Despodov
Winger Kiril Despodov was Bulgaria’s match-winner in September’s 1-0 win over Northern Ireland in Plovdiv and the 27-year-old, who lodged a game-high three shots in total, was a menacing presence throughout that narrow triumph over the Green and White Army.
Despodov, who has been averaging 2.53 shots and 1.45 shots on target per 90 minutes in the Nations League, is something of a talisman for the Bulgarians and the wide attacker has scored four times in his last seven appearances for his country. The PAOK star carries enough threat to trouble the Northern Irish goal with at least one effort on Tuesday.
⚪ Trai Hume
Trai Hume found the going tough when Northern Ireland lost 1-0 in Bulgaria last month and the 22-year-old committed four fouls from his position as the furthest right member of his team’s central defensive trio.
Hume has been committing a lofty 1.38 fouls per 90 in the Nations League overall this term and the Sunderland defender has given away at least two free kicks in four of his last six competitive starts for Northern Ireland overall. Hume’s aggressive tackling could be a feature of Tuesday’s game again.
📂 Northern Ireland v Bulgaria Cheat Sheet
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💻 Northern Ireland v Bulgaria Form and Tactics
Northern Ireland manager Michael O’Neil switched things up from a tactical perspective against Belarus on Saturday and moved from a back four to a three-man defence, reincorporating wingbacks and pairing Callum Marshall and Jamie Reid as a double act in attack.
O’Neil’s tactical rethink almost had the desired effect and Northern Ireland posted the best possession (61%) and shots (15) figures of their Nations League campaign so far in their 0-0 draw with the Belarusians in Zalaegerszeg.
There is every chance O’Neil sticks with that 3-5-2 formation on Tuesday as Northern Ireland bid to become the first team to breach the Bulgarian defence in UNL C Group 3.
Bulgaria were held to a 0-0 draw by Luxembourg on Saturday and mustered just seven attempts on goal in that bore-fest, which was their lowest individual output in the Nations League so far.
You get the sense though, that the Bulgarians would be content to draw 0-0 in most of the fixtures they contest. Indeed, their risk-averse approach has produced three 0-0 draws in their last five assignments.
Bulgaria have been conceding just 1.67 shots on target p/90 in the Nations League and if their defending remains watertight at Windsor Park, they could extend their unbeaten run in all competitions to ten games.
Interestingly, the no-nonsense Bulgarians have collected more cards (14) than any other team in the Nations League so far, while just three sides have been fouled more often than Northern Ireland (16.70 p/90).
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🏁 Northern Ireland v Bulgaria Ref Watch
- Referee: Jerome Brisard
- Jerome Brisard has taken charge of just four matches since the summer and those fixtures averaged 5.00 cards per game.
- The Frenchman last officiated over an international fixture in November last year. In that clash between Northern Ireland and Denmark, Brisard brandished four cards.
- Four of the last five international matches controlled by Brisard featured four or more cards.
Football Predictions at Andy’s Bet Club
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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