Chelsea looked really open in their 3-2 win over Napoli during the week, with the Italian side making the most of the spaces that the Blues left when steaming forward to press aggressively. I think West Ham will be able to expose those gaps in a similar manner, given the success they’ve had in recent games, leading to an open game.

Chelsea have seen 3+ goals in four of their six matches under Liam Rosenior so far, with the exception of their games against Brentford and Pafos - Chelsea conceded an xG of 1.52 from 15 shots in their clash against the Bees, adding further evidence to suggest that they will give up chances here.

There is a clear trend of Chelsea struggling to control matches in their early games under Rosenior, despite the positive results which have papered over some of the cracks. They take on a West Ham side that have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, notably winning each of their last three games ahead of this clash.

The initial league meeting between the sides produced six goals as Chelsea came from behind to run out 5-1 winners. This tends to be an entertaining fixture when looking at the recent meetings as well, each of the last five head-to-head clashes have seen 3+ goals. 

Jarrod Bowen has long possessed quality which is above the standard of his team-mates, but his loyalty to West Ham is admirable, and his presence in the squad is one of the reasons why I think West Ham will be able to mount an escape from the perilous position they find themselves in.

Bowen has had 2+ shots in three of his last five Premier League appearances and is once again West Ham’s top scorer in the division with seven goals. Bowen has scored 13+ goals in each of the last four seasons for West Ham, so he’s consistently one of the Hammers’ top contributors and can be influential again here against an opponent he’s got a strong record against.

Bowen has had 56 shots across his 23 starts in the Premier League this season (2.43 per 90) - more than any other West Ham player this season. I thought he would benefit from Nuno Espirito Santo’s counter-attacking style of play, and that has proven to be the case with Bowen scoring five of his goals in the Premier League since the arrival of the new coach.

Bowen had two shots, with one finding the target, in the initial league meeting between the sides, which Chelsea won 5-1, but still allowed West Ham to register 12 shots. Bowen also had three shots and scored in this fixture last season.

I think Mateus Fernandes has been West Ham’s best player this season and is criminally underrated in the Premier League. He covers all bases in the middle of the park for the Hammers and is set for a challenging evening here with Chelsea expected to go with a midfield trio of Andrey Santos, Enzo Fernandez and Moises Caicedo.

Liam Rosenior has preferred that three-man midfield in his last two matches against Crystal Palace and Napoli, with it being effective enough in those games to earn Chelsea back-to-back wins. Fernandes has committed a foul in two of his last five Premier League appearances, and has racked up 23 fouls committed across his 20 appearances in the top-flight overall (1.23 per 90).

Fernandes didn’t feature in West Ham’s 5-1 defeat to Chelsea earlier in the season, but all three midfielders who lined up for the Hammers on that occasion committed a foul. West Ham only committed seven fouls in that clash, but the fact that most of those were in central areas suggests that this is where we should focus for our foul selections.

Fernandez, Santos and Caicedo are averaging 4.53 fouls won per 90 between them in the Premier League this season. Of this trio, Caicedo is the most likely to draw a foul from Fernandes, with the holding midfielder averaging 2.03 fouls won per 90 on his own.

There have been small signs in recent games for Chelsea that the Blues have some work to do defensively. It hasn’t quite cost them yet in games, but if they continue in this manne,r it is only a matter of time before they are punished.

Chelsea conceded seven shots on target against Crystal Palace last weekend, despite having a man advantage for the final 20 minutes of that clash. They also conceded five shots on target against Napoli during the week, and even Brentford managed to register five shots on target at Stamford Bridge in an unlucky 2-0 defeat to Chelsea a few weeks ago.

There are also signs that West Ham are starting to find their feet after what has been a disappointing season so far. The Hammers have won their last three matches ahead of this clash, managing 3+ shots on target in each of those games - including their 2-1 win over Tottenham a few weeks ago.

Another sign that points to Chelsea conceding at least three shots on target here is how often they rely on Robert Sanchez. The Chelsea keeper has maintained a save percentage of 72.8% across his 22 appearances in the Premier League this term, making 59 saves across those games (2.80 per game).

I really enjoyed watching Summerville when he was at Leeds and always thought that he could become a decent Premier League winger. His time at West Ham hasn’t quite gone to plan with injuries and the general issues at West Ham disrupting his development, but he’s come into form across the last few weeks, which makes him a good option to back for a goal contribution here.

Summerville has registered three goal contributions in the Premier League this season, with two of those coming across his last two matches. He’s scored in back-to-back games for the first time in the Premier League, with those goals coming against Tottenham and Sunderland. He also scored and assisted in West Ham’s win over QPR in the FA Cup, so he’s been right at the heart of West Ham’s upturn in form recently.

I can see West Ham getting joy through their counter-attacking approach here. Chelsea have looked vulnerable in recent matches against Crystal Palace and Brentford in the Premier League without being punished, but Summerville's confidence in front of goal can allow the winger to make the most of those mistakes and register a goal or assist here.

Enzo Fernandez slotted home Chelsea’s opening goal in Naples from the penalty spot during the week, and he looks to be trusted by Liam Rosenior in a more advanced role, with Moises Caicedo and Andrey Santos sitting slightly deeper behind him.

This box-crasher role is also how Enzo Maresca fit Fernandez into the side, as he isn’t quite physical enough to be a holding midfielder, or quick enough to play in the role that Santos occupies for the Blues. He is effective in this role with the Argentine registering 18 goal contributions across his 41 appearances for the Blues in all competitions this term.

Fernandez is Chelsea’s 2nd top scorer in the Premier League this season, with only Joao Pedro (eight) netting more in the top-flight for the Blues than the 25-year-old. I do think that Fernandez should be offering a bit more to Chelsea given his price tag and ability, but while he is operating in this role, he is an ideal player to back for a goal or an assist.

I’m not quite sure why West Ham have signed Valentin Castellanos, he’s a solid player and offers a lot outside of the box - but he isn’t a clinical finisher, which is what West Ham need at the moment. He’s expected to lead the line here for a West Ham side that will sit deep, setting up an ideal scenario for the striker to commit a few fouls.

Castellanos will face up against a back three for Chelsea, which they slot into when in possession. This will leave the former Lazio striker outnumbered when chasing down long balls sent up to him. We’ve already seen this effect in action for the forward with Castellanos committing 2+ fouls in all three of his Premier League starts for the Hammers so far, since making the move from Italy in early January.

It may be worth looking at the prices for Chelsea centre backs to be fouled as well. Castellanos is very short for 1+ foul committed (1.17), but there may be some value in Wesley Fofana or Trevoh Chalobah to be fouled, given how aggressive Castellanos has been in his early games.