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West Ham v Chelsea 3/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

West Ham v Chelsea 3/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Thursday 21 August, 20254 min read
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Ramis Ibrahim

Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.

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Chelsea make the short trip to the London Stadium to take on West Ham in a London Derby.

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West Ham v Chelsea Best Bet Builder Bets
  • West Ham v Chelsea
  • Premier League
  • 20:00
4 Selections @ 4.18

Jarrod Bowen to have 1+ Shots on Target

Bowen remains West Ham’s best and most effective attacker and based on the Hammers’ opening day performance against Sunderland, he may once again have to do the majority of the heavy-lifting in the final third for West Ham this season.

Bowen had four shots against Sunderland, with one of those attempts finding the target. He played in a front two with Niclas Fullkrug but was much more of a shot threat than the German, who was forced to wait until the 90th minute for his first effort on target of the game. Bowen is continually one of the most underrated forwards in the league and has hit double digits for goals in each of the last four seasons for West Ham.

Bowen averaged 1.12 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League last season, which is a pretty solid record when considering he was playing in a pitiful attacking setup. He’s also got a superb record against Chelsea, recording five goal contributions in his 11 appearances against the Blues - including scoring against them at Stamford Bridge last season and finding the target when the sides met at the London Stadium. 

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Chelsea GK to Make 2+ Saves

Robert Sanchez boasted the joint-best save percentage in the Premier League last season (73.5%) and was forced into making four saves in Chelsea’s 0-0 draw against Crystal Palace at Stamford Bridge last time out. Sanchez was forced into making seven saves at the London Stadium last season, while Filip Jorgensen was forced into four stops when West Ham visited Stamford Bridge last term.

I’m not fully convinced of the stability of the Chelsea backline at the moment. I think you can get at them in the absence of Levi Colwill, who is not only important from a defensive point of view, but also crucial in Chelsea’s first phase of build-up. His absence meant that Chelsea gave the ball away countless times against Palace, leading to Sanchez bailing them out. This is not uncommon for Chelsea; only Southampton gave away more chances in the initial build-up phase that led to shots conceded than Chelsea last season.

West Ham managed to draw four saves from Robin Roefs in the Sunderland net on Saturday afternoon, and they should take inspiration from the success Palace had in pressing Chelsea high in the first phase of build-up and being as direct as possible to test a Blues backline that is missing its most pivotal component.

West Ham Over 0.5 Goals

Having watched Chelsea in their opening game against Crystal Palace I think that this backline is quite vulnerable at the moment and will be exposed at times in the coming weeks while Chelsea adapt to their new set of circumstances without Levi Colwill.

It’s hard to put into words just how important Colwill is to Chelsea, he plays a very specific role which Enzo Maresca deems that only he and Tosin Adarabioyo (also injured) can play, which leaves Chelsea with a bit of an issue. Colwill led Chelsea for touches (2965), successful passes (2328) and was only dispossessed eight times last season - it’s easy to see why he’s so important to Enzo Maresca.

West Ham can take advantage of this gap in the Chelsea backline. Chelsea gave the ball away 23 times in their own half against Crystal Palace, which will be an area thta the Hammers can target. Bowen is the most obvious goal threat, and Fullkrug has shown some promise in pre-season, but West Ham’s main strength here will be their positive record against Chelsea at the London Stadium.

Of the 14 Premier League head-to-head meetings between the sides at the London Stadium, West Ham have avoided defeat in eight. They’ve managed to score in nine of those games with the clean sheet that Chelsea kept in their 3-0 win there last season, the first in three attempts. West Ham also managed to score at Stamford Bridge last season and registered a combined xG of 2.07 across their two meetings with the Blues last year.

Malick Diouf to have 1+ Shots

Malick Diouf was one of the few shining lights for West Ham from their opening day 3-0 defeat to newly promoted Sunderland. The new addition looked a constant threat from left wing back, and he looks pretty generously priced for a shot here.

Diouf had three shots against Sunderland, with one of those attempts finding the target. Interestingly, two of those shots came from central positions when Diouf was lingering at the edge of the box following a corner. If he stays in this role from set pieces, then he will almost certainly be a consistent shot threat throughout the season, when also considering his attacking responsibilities as a left wing back.

Diouf scored seven goals for Slavia Prague last season, so he is capable of helping the Hammers increase their goal tally, which was a bit underwhelming last season. He also had 14 shots across his eight appearances in the Europa League last season (2.11 per 90), which further cements his shot threat here. Chelsea also didn’t look completely settled down their side of the pitch in their opening game against Crystal Palace, with Reece James continually being caught out and having to commit two recovery foul,s so it could be an area of the pitch where West Ham get real joy.

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West Ham v Chelsea Best Longshot Bets
  • West Ham v Chelsea
  • Premier League
  • 20:00
3 Selections @ 13.75

Lucas Paqueta to be Shown a Card

Paqueta is a player I could see becoming really frustrated in this West Ham setup. He’s got real talent and creativity, but there isn’t really the personnel around him to truly see the best side of Paqueta. 

This was really evident last season. I regularly backed Paqueta for cards last year, and he rarely disappointed. The Brazilian picked up 10 yellow cards across his 27 starts for the Hammers in the Premier League - more than any other West Ham player.

Paqueta didn’t receive a card in his one appearance against Chelsea at the London Stadium last season, but West Ham did receive five yellow cards in that game, and the added element of this being a London derby should see a slight increase in the usual card numbers.

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West Ham 4+ Shots on Target

Despite the various issues that West Ham face at the moment, they should still be able to really test Chelsea here through taking inspiration from Crystal Palace’s approach. 

The Eagles had four shots on target despite having just 26% of the ball which shows that even when Chelsea dominate possession, the opposition will always have a chance in moments of transition.

This is something that West Ham are set up well for with the likes of Bowen and Malick Diouf, who can continually cause the Chelsea backline issues. West Ham had seven shots on target in this fixture last season, and had five in the meeting between the sides at Stamford Bridge. 

They averaged 3.80 shots on target per game in the Premier League last season, which is a record we can expect to increase, seeing as only the three relegated sides had fewer shots on target than the Hammers last season.

Liam Delap to Score Anytime

I think Chelsea would have been a lot more dangerous from the start of the game against Crystal Palace had Liam Delap started. Joao Pedro has a lot of strengths, but he isn’t a number nine and his performance against Palace made that abundantly clear. Pedro was isolated by Palace and struggled to link up with the likes of Cole Palmer and Pedro Neto, but Delap was much more of a handful when he came on.

Delap has the physical presence to occupy centre backs, which Pedro slightly lacks. Seeing as Chelsea are likely to come up against a back three again here, Delap would be the better option to ensure that Chelsea have a constant physical presence occupying the defenders, which should allow the likes of Palmer, Enzo Fernandez and Estevao to find more space.

Delap scored 12 Premier League goals for Ipswich last season, one of which came against West Ham at the London Stadium. 

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📂 West Ham v Chelsea Cheat Sheet

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📈 West Ham v Chelsea Form & Tactics

It’s fair to say that the alarm bells are ringing in the West Ham fan base after their lacklustre performance against Sunderland on the opening weekend. Graham Potter has had his odds slashed to be the first manager dismissed from his post, and there are already rumours of a relegation battle facing the Hammers this season.

However, there are reasons for optimism in the slightly dreary situation that West Ham find themselves in. Malick Diouf looks to be an exciting player, and with Jarrod Bowe,n they’ll always have a player who can get them out of a difficult situation, but Graham Potter will have to make sure that this situation doesn’t unravel. A poor performance here would really heap pressure on the former Brighton and Chelsea boss.

West Ham also have a strong record against Chelsea at the London Stadium. The sides have met 14 times there in the Premier League era, with Chelsea winning just six of those meetings.

Chelsea fans were the most optimistic of any fanbase heading into the new season, but their opening day 0-0 draw against Crystal Palace was a reality check. Chelsea have a wealth of attacking talent, but a common issue last season was breaking down low blocks, and this issue was very present against Palace. Despite having 72% of the ball, Chelsea only had three shots on target - two of which came from the 90th-minute onwards.

I’m also a little concerned about the Chelsea backline. There is a rift developing between Enzo Maresca and the recruitment staff at Chelsea over whether Chelsea need another centre back to accommodate for the absence of Levi Colwill, Maresca thinks Chelsea should go to the market, but he’s been told to find a solution internally for now.

It should be noted that despite these niggling issues for Chelsea, this is a side that has won 11 of their last 13 games across all competitions so they can be a very effective side when everything comes together, though it does look like this is going to be a more awkward start to the season than Chelsea fans would have expected.


🏁 Ref Watch

Michael Oliver

Fouls pg

Yellows pg

Reds pg

Pens pg

22.21

3.24

0.14

0.31

Per game stats from Oliver's 400 Premier League games in his career.


📊 West Ham v Chelsea Key Stats

  • West Ham were the first side to suffer defeat against a newly promoted side on the opening day of the season since Arsenal against Brentford in the 2021/22 season.

  • West Ham have avoided defeat in eight of their 14 Premier League matches against Chelsea at the London Stadium.

  • Two of the three goals that West Ham conceded against Sunderland were headers, 50% of the Black Cats’ shots in that game were headed efforts.

  • Chelsea started their campaign with a goalless draw for the first time since the 2011/12 season.

  • Josh Acheampong became the second youngest player to start on the opening day for Chelsea, after Glen Johnson.

  • Chelsea had 19 shots in their opening game, but only three of those found the target.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Andy's Bet Club is packed full of Expert Football Tips. We also have an easy-to-use Bet Builder Stats tool to help you conduct your own research. Look out for our Premier League Predictions this season.

These West Ham v Chelsea Betting Stats provide further insight. We've also got Quick Tips for Real Betis v Alaves, Eerste Divisie Goals Tips, Derby v Bristol City Bet Builder Tips, Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig Quick Tips and a 4/1 Friday European Football Accumulator.

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For additional value, check out our bet365 6 Scores Challenge Tips and our Paddy Power Beat The Drop Predictions.


* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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