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Slovakia v Ukraine
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Kick Off: Friday 21st June at 14:00
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Watch Live: BBC One
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Competition: Euro 2024
The early kick-off on Friday sees an elated Slovakia face a deflated Ukraine, with neither side having expected the first round of fixtures in Group E to have played out as they did.
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Slovakia are on the cusp of qualifying for the knockout phase of Euro 2024 thanks to their sensational triumph over Belgium, a follow-up victory over Ukraine at the Dusseldorf Arena would guarantee the Falcons’ berth in the next round.
In contrast, Ukraine already stand on the brink of elimination following a largely self-inflicted 3-0 defeat against a clinical Romania on matchday one. Can under-pressure coach Serhiy Rebrov mastermind a change of fortunes for the ailing Ukrainians on Friday?
Slovakia v Ukraine Best Bets
Buoyed by their surprise win over Belgium in Frankfurt, the momentum is with Slovakia and a fast start for The Falcons could play on the nervousness in Ukraine’s ranks.
With their Euro 2024 status hanging by a thread, Ukraine’s players will be conscious that any mistake could be fatal on Friday. That in turn could produce the same kind of anxious decision-making that scuppered them against Romania.
Ukraine struggled to break down the Romanians’ well-drilled ranks and Slovakia are just as disciplined from a tactical perspective. Backing Slovakia at a very attractive price in the double chance market looks like the best manoeuvre here.
Elsewhere, Ukraine’s Yukhym Konoplia could be a useful pickup in the over 0.5 fouls market. The right-back endured a torrid time against Romania on Monday when he completed just 76% of his passes, committed one foul and was booked for his troubles.
The 24-year-old faces another stiff test on Friday when he marks Slovakia dangerman Lukáš Haraslín on the flank. Haraslin was fouled four times by his Belgian markers on matchday one and he could prove to be just as tricky to handle for Konoplia.
Ukraine’s Heorhiy Sudakov is a strong contender to lodge over 1.5 shots, meanwhile. The highly-rated 21-year-old is eager to impress his suitors at Euro 2024, though he looked a little too keen to make an impact against Romania at times, as evidenced by his four shots at goal from outside the box.
Sudakov has racked up at least three shots in four of his last six competitive appearances for Ukraine overall, so look for him to have over 1.5 attempts again.
📂 Slovakia v Ukraine Cheat Sheet
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You can find Slovakia v Ukraine match stats on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
⚔️ Slovakia v Ukraine Head-to-Head
We have to wind the clock back to 2018 to find the last encounters between Slovakia and Ukraine; when the nations shared the same Nations League group.
Home advantage was a major factor in determining the outcome of both meetings between the sides that year, with Ukraine edging the teams’ skirmish 1-0 in Lviv in September before Slovakia exacted revenge with a convincing 4-1 triumph over their visitors to Trnava two months after that.
A year before that, Ukraine harnessed home advantage again to claim a 2-1 win in a friendly meeting with Slovakia, though the Falcons had the better of it between 2014 and 2015 when they took four points from two tussles with the Ukrainians in their Euro 2016 qualification group.
📊 Slovakia Form and Stats
Slovakia produced the shock result of Euro 2024 so far when they ground out an against-the-odds 1-0 victory over a much-fancied Belgium side on Monday – a triumph that put The Falcons on course for qualification from Group E.
They were always likely to need a slice of luck or two to prevail in Frankfurt, though they complemented the controversial double-dollop of fortune they received from VAR with some robust defensive work to claim maximum points at the Belgians’ expense.
With defenders Denis Vavro, Milan Skriniar and David Hancko in heroic form, Slovakia made 19 clearances and 15 blocks to keep Belgium at bay, while Martin Dubravka was also called into action to make five saves during an afternoon of repeated rearguard action.
Slovakia enjoyed just 39.5% possession and lost the xG battle convincingly (0.60-1.80) which suggests it could have been a very different result on another day, however, the win would have been a major confidence-builder ahead of their clash with Ukraine.
Ivan Schranz capitalised on a calamity in Belgium’s defence to score the game’s only goal, though 37-year-old midfield stalwart Juraj Kucka clocked more attempts (three) than any of his teammates, while each member of Slovakia’s front three (Schranz, Haraslin, Bozenik) managed to get an effort on target.
As we forecast in our bet builder for the game, Slovakia’s Ondrej Duda was in the thick of the action against Belgium and topped the pile for fouls committed (three) and the 29-year-old should have another combative remit against Ukraine.
Head Coach Francesco Calzona leaned heavily on his defensive playbook to frustrate Belgium, though the Italian has a chance to let his team off the leash a little more against Ukraine and a more expansive tactical approach could be in the offing.
📊 Ukraine Form and Stats
A shellshocked Serhiy Rebrov uttered the words “nobody expected this result” after Ukraine slipped to a dismal 3-0 loss to Romania on Monday which was quite the understatement given the positive pre-match chatter about his team’s prospects at Euro 2024.
Rebrov also lamented his team’s inability to create chances, though the Ukrainian’s catastrophic defending drew just as much criticism in the post-match fallout.
Ukraine came out on top in most metrics against Romania, including possession (71.3%-28.7%), shots (13-9), xGF (1.10-0.70), tackles (17-8) and corners (8-4), however, once they gifted Romania their opener, they never really looked capable of mounting a recovery.
While a clinical Romania made the most of the chances, hitting the target with five of their nine efforts, Ukraine were wasteful in the extreme, failing to find their range with 11 of their 13 strikes.
Attacking midfielders Mykhailo Mudryk (three), Heorhiy Sudakov (four) and Viktor Tsyhankov (two) were the biggest culprits, mustering nine shots between them but hitting the target only twice, while underserved striker Artem Dovbyk cut a frustrated figure and they only shot he managed was a speculative hit from distance.
Two errors from keeper Andriy Lunin, one distribution-related and one a weak-wristed save attempt, might have earned the Real Madrid starlet a place on the bench against Slovakia, though replacing their number one on matchday two could create even more uncertainty at the back.
There are numerous technical and tactical issues for Serhiy Rebrov to resolve, however, he will want to see a sharper competitive edge from his players first of all after they committed only eight fouls against Romania. Midfielder Heorhiy Sudakov accounted for three of those on his own.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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