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UFC 303 takes place this Saturday night (Sunday morning UK time) from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Another day, another UFC PPV saved by Alex Pereira. Despite the highly-anticipated matchup between Michael Chandler and a returning Conor McGregor being booked as the original main event for UFC 303, a toe injury sustained by McGregor put a halt to the hype.
Just like UFC 300, the UFC have looked to Light Heavyweight champion Alex Pereira to save the card on short notice, in a rematch against enigmatic Czech Jiri Prochazka.
It’s why we’ve found some good value in the MMA tips & best bets below:
- Alex Pereira by KO/TKO (2.10)
- Brian Ortega to Win (2.20)
- Michael Page by KO/TKO or Points (2.30)
A £5 stake on the UFC 303 best bets would return £53.13 at odds 10.63 on Paddy Power should they all land.
As always we’ll highlight the best free bets and best bet builder sites during the event to help you bet smarter.
Alex Pereira (c) v Jiri Prochazka (#1) – UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
👊🏻 Alex Pereira by KO/TKO
Less than 12 months on from their original bout at UFC 295, in which Pereira knocked out Prochazka to hand him his first loss since 2015, the Brazilian still stands tall above the rest at 205.
Doubters will say that the fight at UFC 295 may have been a premature stoppage by referee Marc Goddard, but the momentum of the first fight was certainly in favour of the Brazilian after a competitive first round by Prochazka. However, it’s hard to see the result going any other way than another KO/TKO for Pereira.
Yes, Prochazka put on a fine performance in a knockout win against Austrian Alexandar Rakic at UFC 300, but at a price of 2.10 on Paddy Power, it seems silly to back against Pereira who hasn’t missed a step since his only UFC loss to Israel Adesanya back in April 2023.
The Brazilian is certainly the more accomplished striker given his background in kickboxing, and Prochazka isn’t a fighter likely to take this fight to the ground despite having a slight advantage (for context, only three of Prochazka’s 30 wins have come via submission).
Even if he did want to take it to the ground, Pereira has severely underrated takedown defence, with Prochazka having landed on one of his three attempts against Pereira in their first fight.
A classic stand-and-bang contest, backing Pereira at odds against to continue his streak at the top of 205lbs seems fantastic value.
Brian Ortega (#3) v Diego Lopes (#14) – Lightweight
👊🏻 Brian Ortega to Win
After TWO cancelations for proposed co-main events, we have an short-notice but incredibly intriguing matchup at lightweight here, as former featherweight title contender Brian Ortega faces off against the powerful Diego Lopes.
Since making his UFC debut on short notice against a monster in Movsar Evloev back in May 2023, newcomer to the rankings Lopes has been on a terrific run that has seen him finish his last three opponents on the spin, including an impressive quick KO of Sodiq Yussuf back at UFC 300.
Now, on a run like that it wouldn’t make much sense to back against Lopes, right? Well given the price offered for ‘T-City’ Ortega to win on the nose, it seems crazy to back against the California-based fighter.
Injuries have hampered Ortega in recent years, but an arm-triangle finish of Mexican Yair Rodriguez (in Mexico City no less) back in February of this year proved that Ortega still has plenty to offer at the top of the featherweight pyramid.
Lopes has not fought a fighter anywhere near the level of Ortega and the proof is in the rankings of each fighter. Not often do you see a fighter ranked number three in the world taking on a guy who has just about made the top 15.
Without disregarding Lopes’ previous wins against Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, and the aforementioned Yossuf, they are not top 10 quality fighters at featherweight and this all feels like a bit too soon for Lopes. An impressive streak yes, but his only real test came in his debut against Evloev in a losing effort.
Despite Ortega struggling with weight, resulting in this fight being moved to 155lbs rather than 145lbs, Ortega’s experience on the big stage should shine through.
The bookmakers seem to be riding the hype train of Lopes here, and Ortega being priced at 2.20 just to win seems like excellent value, especially when you consider the gulf in experience at the top level between the two.
Ian Machado Garry (#7) v Michael Page (#14) – Welterweight
👊🏻 Michael Page by KO/TKO or Points
In truth, Ian Machado Garry seems to be relishing his newly found ‘pantomime villain’ status among fans in recent months.
Still undefeated as a professional at 14-0, Garry has made a serious account of himself since debuting in the promotion back in November 2021. Seven wins in a row have seen him beat some solid competition in the likes of Neil Magny and Geoff Neal, but lying in his way on Saturday night is a trailblazer in establishing yourself as a superstar outside the UFC in Michael ‘Venom’ Page.
Fans will know of MVP through his prolonged highlight reel of stunning knockouts during his monumental run in Bellator, and now MMA fans have their wish to see Page compete amongst the world’s best in the UFC.
Page himself is off the back of a comfortable decision win against the vocal Kevin Holland back at UFC 299 in March and faces a significantly tougher test in Garry on Saturday in Las Vegas.
An angle I think that holds strong value here is the double chance market. In all likelihood, I can see this one going the distance, but covering Page to win by decision or KO at odds against seems a great way to cover two outcomes.
Page’s ability to control range using his karate style should nullify the length that Garry has held over opponents in recent fights. Garry will have to push the action, and that’s exactly what MVP wants.
While a KO win for Page may not seem likely, his high accuracy in the striking department could be enough to put Garry on his backside, but, at odds of 2.30, backing that OR a decision win for the high-technical MVP seems like a shrewd pick to even back as a single.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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