Alvaro Morata to commit 2+ fouls @ 11/10 with Paddy Power
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Spain v England
The Atletico Madrid centre forward has resembled less of a striker and more of a Spanish bull marauding around the pitch at Euro 2024.
Whilst his goal contribution has been zero, and his shot volume seems to have massively dropped off as the tournament has progressed, his tackle and foul numbers have continued to rise.
Morata averages 1.23 fouls per 90 over Spain’s last 30 internationals, which certainly seems nothing special in relation to this bet. However, the picture changes once we turn our attention to his work in this tournament.
The former Chelsea number nine has started five of the six Spain matches, and he has made at least two fouls in each of them. To be able to get an odds against price for an action that has occurred every time Morata has started a match in the tournament seems a fairly generous price.
Sky Bet make this event an odds on shot at 1.67, bet365 have priced this up at 1.87 as well, so there is a nice little bit of value on top by taking this with Paddy Power.
It is not just the sheer number of fouls that do this justice though, it is also the manner of Morata’s performances that suggest this is a strong bet.
In Spain’s semi-final, Morata performed like less of a penalty box merchant, and more like a combative central midfielder, harassing the French deep-lying midfielders, chasing back into the full-back areas and winning fouls, but committing them as well.
He committed three fouls in his 76 minutes on the pitch, while winning four, a total of seven foul contributions. He committed two fouls against Germany in the quarter-final as well, while earning three, so he has been getting involved in a lot of physical duels all over the pitch.
Indeed, his Euro 2024 performance shows that he is averaging 2.81 fouls per 90, a massive increase in his usual output in this area, and potential proof that Luis de la Fuentes has requested this type of approach from him, especially knowing that he has adequate replacements on the bench to replace him when he is spent.
England like to pass the ball around the back and use Declan Rice and Kobbie Mainoo to progress play. Morata is likely to be detailed to disrupt the England ball players at the back to try and encourage mistakes. It would be a surprise if at least a couple of these challenges weren’t mistimed or resulted in fouls.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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