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Leeds v Middlesbrough
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Kick Off: Tuesday 10th December at 20:00
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Competition: Championship
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
Two of the Championship’s big hitters meet at Elland Road on Tuesday night and both have serious promotion credentials. A victory for either side here can be seen as a statement win.
⭐ Leeds v Middlesbrough Best Bets
Leeds produced a familiar dominant home performance on Saturday lunchtime when they beat Derby 2-0, restricting the opposition to just 3 shots on goal for a total xG of 0.08. In 10 home league games this season Leeds have kept the away team to the following xG…0.94-0.49-0.66-0.41-0.20-0.69-0.00-0.34-0.80-0.08. They have kept 7/10 clean sheets at Elland Road.
On top of these defensive numbers, Leeds average 2.2 goals scored per home game. The 1.19 xG they put up in the 2-0 win versus Sheffield United on the 18th of October is their lowest xG figure at home this season, they’ve collected 25 points from a possible 30 at Elland Road and feel formidable.
However, Middlesbrough have the chance to become the 3rd team, after Portsmouth and Burnley, to take points off Leeds at Elland Road this season. Boro have scored more away goals (18) than any other team in this season’s Championship. They average 1.56 points per away game, only Burnley and West Brom can better that number. Middlesbrough also already have an away victory at Leeds this season – 3-0 in the 1st round of the Carabao Cup.
I’m clutching at straws to find some negatives but if there’s any concern about Middlesbrough’s away numbers it could be that their 4 away wins have come at West Brom, Cardiff, QPR and Oxford, three of these teams are in the division’s current bottom six. They’ve failed to beat Derby, Sunderland, Watford, Norwich, and Burnley, four of the division’s current Top 10.
The final thing to add is that Leeds played at home at the weekend where the game versus Derby was relatively comfortable. Middlesbrough had to go to Burnley for a robust fixture 16 hours earlier. Boro fatigue is possible.
🟢 Leeds v Middlesbrough #WhatOddsPaddy Tip
Despite Leeds’ powerful defensive stats, Boro’s have attacking quality in abundance – they will back themselves to be competitive.
Middlesbrough’s have a tendency of scoring early in matches in recent games, Anfernee Dijksteel opened the scoring in the 12th minute versus Burnley on Friday, and Finn Azaz in the 24th minute against Hull in the match prior.
Emmanuel Latte Lath has been a first-half menace more than once this season. Of his 7 Championship goals, 4 of them have come inside the first half.
Take a chance on him bagging early but Leeds having the last laugh.
👕 Leeds v Middlesbrough Predicted XI
🔍 Leeds v Middlesbrough Players to Watch
⚪️ Ao Tanaka
There was concern for Leeds when Ethan Ampadu and Ilia Gruev suffered early season injuries the form of Joe Rothwell and Ao Tanaka means their absence has barely been noticed. Tanaka is amongst this season’s best Championship midfielders and he’s the link between Leeds’s defence and attack. He protects the back 4 and allows Rothwell to play ahead of him.
According to Wyscout data, Tanaka has attempted over 1,000 passes with a 91.5% success rate. He averages 3.43 interceptions per game. Tanaka covers plenty of ground, he averages 9.19 recoveries per game with 57.8% in the opposition half. Tanaka is busy!
His fouls committed numbers as a starter read 1-1-3-2-1-1-0-2-3-3-1-3-2. His fouls suffered numbers as a starter read 1-0-0-3-2-2-3-0-1-2-2-2-1.
🔴 Emmanuel Latte Lath
Middlesbrough have been rotating Tommy Conway and Emmanuel Latte Lath as their starting strikers in recent times and are getting rewarded by the freshness of both. Conway has 8 Championship goals, Latte Lath has 7. It was Conway that started at Burnley on Friday so the expectation is that Latte Lath takes over on Tuesday.
Latte-Lath averages a shot every 30.29 minutes in the Championship this season. His shot numbers in matches where he starts this season read 3-3-3-1-1-3-2-3-4-1-6-4.
📂 Leeds v Middlesbrough Cheat Sheet
Wednesday night plays host to more EFL Cup action and our expert Football Betting Predictions will be diving into all the action. Make sure to check out our EFL Betting Tips along with our EFL Accumulator Tips so you don’t miss any of our coverage.
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💻 Leeds v Middlesbrough Form and Tactics
Leeds’s Ethan Ampadu returned to the squad against Derby following an injury layoff. Fullback Junior Firpo and Sam Byram are missing due to injury, as is midfielder Ilia Gruev.
Middlesbrough have some defensive absentees – Tommy Smith, Al Bangura, Darragh Lenihan, and Rav Van Den Berg. But their biggest loss in American midfield man Aidan Morris.
Leeds are 3rd in the 5-game form table with 12 points from their last possible 15 whereas the visitors Middlesbrough are 5th in that form table with 10 points.
Leeds have boasted strong defensive performances at Elland Road this season, conceding just 0.5 goals per home game on average, which is equally impressive as Middlesbrough’s away scoring record, with an average of scoring 2 goals per away game.
In fact, these sides are very close in many important categories across their performances in the Championship this season, with a few key points noted below:
- 1st v 2nd – Expected Points
- 2nd v 1st – xG
- 1st v 2nd – Shots on Target per Match
- 2nd v 1st – Touches in Opposition Box per Match
- 1st v 4th – xGA
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🏁 Leeds v Middlesbrough Ref Watch
- Referee: Ben Toner
- Averages 5.41 yellow cards in 17 matches officiated this season
- Has given 2 straight red cards this season
- Has awarded 3 penalties this season
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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