England have to win to top the group and win promotion whereas Ireland have nothing to play for.  All 4 of England’s wins in the Nations League have covered the -1 handicap, including winning 2-0 in the reverse fixture.

Ireland have failed to find the net against either Greece or England, the best 2 sides in the group, losing 2-0 in all 3 fixtures. 4 of Ireland’s last 6 games have seen them lose by 2 or more goals.

England have averaged 5.8 corners per game in the Nations League this season, their last 2 games at Wembley have seen them rack up corner counts of 8 and 9.

On the road to big sides, Ireland have given up 7 corners to Portugal and 6 to France within their last 6 away games.

England, needing the win, should see them dominate the ball and on the attack all game which should lead to more corners.

Josh Cullen has committed 8 fouls in his 3 starts in the Nations League with at least 2 in each game. He’s averaged 1.57 fouls per 90 for Burnley this season and 2.67 per 90 for Ireland.

Cullen will be opposing Jude Bellingham who has been fouled 3.81 times per 90 in the Nations League. He may also have to deal with Curtis Jones who was fouled twice against Greece in his only appearance in the competition.

Pickford has made 1.5 saves per 90 in the Nations League this season. In England’s last 2 matches they’ve looked much more open at the back and Pickford has had 2 make 5 saves against Greece and 2 against Finland.

Ireland have forced opposition goalkeepers into 12 saves in their last 3 matches.

In addition, the Irish having nothing to play for should mean they are less defensive and happier to attack and have shots, hopefully leading to more Pickford saves.

Bellingham has drawn 4, 3 and 4 fouls in his 3 Nations League appearances this season.

He’s been fouled an average of 3.81 times per 90 in the Nations League and has won 2 or more fouls in 11 of his last 13 appearances in an England shirt.

He will be opposing Josh Cullen who has averaged 2.67 fouls per 90 for Ireland in the competition this season. Jack Grealish played in the number 10 role in the reverse fixture and was fouled 4 times.

Madueke looked electric against Greece on Thursday, creating 5 chances and providing an assist for the opener. He was fouled 3 times in this game in just 66 minutes as the Greeks struggled to deal with his pace..

England exploited the width against Ireland in the reverse fixture and Gordon and Saka were both fouled 3 times.

His direct opponent should be Callum O’Dowda who has committed 1.27 fouls per 90 in the Championship this season and will struggle to deal with Madueke’s pace.

England have kept clean sheets in 3 of their 5 Nations League games winning the reverse fixture comfortably 2-0.

Ireland have failed to score all 3 of their matches against the top 2 sides in the group, only finding the net against bottom side Finland.

In the aforementioned head-to-head in Dublin, Ireland created just 0.65 xG from 6 shots as England held them at arm’s length – this bet has landed in 7 of Ireland’s last 10 games.

Ferguson’s winner against Finland on Thursday was one of 9 shots in the competition at an average of 3.39 per 90. The forward has had limited minutes for Brighton this season and so will be keen to impress at Wembley against Premier League defenders.

England have allowed 35 shots from their opposition across their last 3 matches and Ferguson will be Ireland’s biggest goal threat.