đź’Ž Gem Bet: Frimpong 1+ foul
Real Madrid v AC Milan
The Leverkusen wingback is overpriced with Paddy Power to make at least one foul at Anfield.
Other bookmakers have priced this as more likely, Bet365 and Sky Bet both go with 1.53 as a price, and this is one that seems to be more accurate when taking the data into account.
One has to be careful when assessing Champions League player props because of the change in quality from normal domestic action, certainly for most clubs. Bayer Leverkusen will certainly face a very different challenge here than they do in the Bundesliga on a regular basis.
Frimpong is a heavily attack biased wing back who contributes a huge amount of chances, assists, and goals, but he will be tested in a defensive capacity in this match. The double threat on Liverpool’s left from either Cody Gakpo or Luis Diaz combined with Andy Robertson or Konstantinos Tsimikas will be a big deal to contend with.
Those four Liverpool players have shared the minutes in the Champions League on Liverpool’s left, but have suffered 9 fouls between them across the three matches so far. Gakpo suffered four fouls playing mainly from the left in the last matchday in the Champions League.
Frimpong himself has committed exactly one foul in each of this season’s Champions League matches as well, this works out as 1.3 fouls per 90 due to his substitute appearance in the last round. Leverkusen’s system means that Frimpong often has to defend the wide channel on his own from right wing back.
Leverkusen seem to be committing more fouls than usual at the moment as well. They have committed double figure foul totals in each of their last four matches, and in their last two Champions League matches. They committed 15 against Milan despite only suffering four against them.
As always, it is recommended that we observe the team news, as Nathan Tella was selected at wing back in Leverkusen’s last Champions League match. However, Frimpong is the regular first choice, and if he is selected then the 1.73 is definite value for a single foul here.
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