With all the Serie A players returning to the pitch following their festive breaks, in which a quick google search has led me to discover Italians eat pasta at Christmas, the fight for the Scudetto returns on Thursday. For this exciting day of Italian football in which all 20 teams play with two games at 11:30, 1:30, 3:30, 5:30 and 7:45 the 6th January truly is a remarkable day in the football calendar and for this holiday I have chosen to focus on title challenges Milan and champions league hopefuls Roma’s fixture for a Bet Builder in this article.
Roma’s 2021 could be summarised by one word, inconsistent, shown perfectly in their last two fixtures before the break-in which they followed up a remarkable 4-1 victory over Atalanta with a draw against 15th placed Sampdoria. Equally, despite being impressive at home winning six of these fixtures this season and losing only twice, they have fared far worse on the road: suffering embarrassing defeats in the conference to Bodo/Glimt and losing 5 away in the league. Roma will hope to start 2022 off on the positive side of this inconsistency and keep this moving forward.
Milan started the season very well but tailed off slightly in the latter part of 2021, in contrast to their city and Scudetto rivals Inter, who have won their last 7 Serie A games and are starting to develop a slight lead at the top of the table. If Milan want to ensure this lead doesn’t stretch further, then its current mark of 4 points, a win against Roma is important as Inter will likely win against Bologna despite being on the road.
For this game, I’ve picked out a bet builder as one of I’m sure many bets on Thursday, along with a Cheat Sheet, to help you with your own bets. Best of Luck!!
Milan vs Roma Bet Builder Tips
Tiemoué Bakayoko to be Carded
Bakayoko has really struggled this season in his ten appearances in which he has averaged only 28 minutes per game, in that time making only 3 starts, conceding 1 penalty and having 2 errors which lead to goals. In the absence of both Bennacer and Kessie, Sandro Tonali and Bakayoko should start in a midfield pairing which will allow Stefano Pioli to continue to play in his favoured 4-2-3-1 formation. With Bakayoko starting out of necessity due to preferred options being out at the African cup of nations for at least a fortnight, he will be under significant pressure to perform well in this and other future games in the next two weeks. When looking at the Cheat Sheet for this match Bakayoko looks like the strongest candidate in the Milan team to pick up a card on Thursday, averaging the most fouls per game at 2.9 and also picking up the most cards to this point with 3.
Not only is Bakayoko a strong candidate to be carded but the game itself is likely to involve several bookings, with referee Daniele Chiffi averaging 4.14 cards per game in the Serie A this season. Equally, games involving Roma this season have been card-heavy with Mourinho’s side being poorly disciplined this season, shown in the Cheat Sheet with four separate players receiving over 4 cards this year. The previous meeting between these two sides also saw 10 yellow cards and one red, making it one of the most poorly disciplined games in the Serie A this season. If this trend continues then Bakayoko, compared to other players averaging his fouls per game and likely to start, looks very well priced on Paddy Power at 3.4.
Both Teams to Score
Both teams to score is the bookmaker’s favourite for Thursday’s game at 1.57 on Paddy Power compared to 2.25 for one of the teams to keep a clean sheet. When looking at the stats it’s easy to see why, in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two sides, both teams have scored with Roma failing to keep Milan from scoring in their last 8 attempts. However, it is not only the head-to-head stats that seem to suggest both teams scoring is the more likely outcome, as Milan have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 4 games and Roma have scored first in 4 of their last 5 games. This match has a tendency to be high scoring with all three previous meetings having over 2.5 goals with the final scoreline in one game finishing 3-3.
A win is crucial for Milan to stay within touching distance of the Scudetto and as Michael Owen once said when discussing City “When they don’t score, they hardly ever win”. Equally, they are boosted with the return of Ibrahimovic, Leao and Rebic to bolster the attack. This combined with the head-to-head stats and Roma’s predisposition to score first recently, suggests both teams to score is the more likely option supported by the odds.
Lorenzo Pellegrini Shot on Target
Roma has not yet confirmed its current cases of the virus, but it is believed that Borja Mayoral, Daniel Fuzato and Chris Smalling are amongst the Roma players that will not make the trip on Thursday. Despite not knowing the extent of this, what is known is that their captain Lorenzo Pellegrini is set to return. This will offer them a huge boost going forward shown in the Cheat Sheet. This is because Pellegrini ranks top in shots per game for the Roma side, at 3.65 and 1 on target. When looking at the odds, Pellegrini is 1.62 to have a shot on target. This seems to be well priced when compared to other players with similar stats on the Cheat Sheet. For example, Tammy Abraham has 0.9 shots on target per game and almost one less shot than Pellegrini, and is valued at 1.3. Pellegrini is a solid bet for a shot on target as he is returning from injury in an important game for his side. Pellegrini’s goal scoring form this season has also been good, scoring 5 goals in the campaign making him Roma’s second highest goal scorer. For these reasons combined with his Cheat Sheet stats, I expect Pellegrini to perform well for his side on Thursday, in a performance in which he registers at least one shot on target.
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Milan vs Roma Cheat Sheet
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
How to watch Milan vs Roma in the Premier League
📅 When is Milan vs Roma? / Thursday, 6 January 2022, 17:30
🏟 Where is Milan vs Roma? / San Siro (Milan)
📺 What TV Channel is Milan vs Roma on? / BT Sport 1
📱 Online Live Streaming for Milan vs Roma / bet365
🟨 …And who is the referee for Milan vs Roma? / Daniele Chiffi 🇮🇹
