Switzerland’s hopes of earning promotion out of this group may be over but there is still motivation to make sure they aren’t relegated. They currently occupy a relegation place but third spot would at least give them a shot in a play-off. Even putting that to one side, the Swiss certainly won’t want to go through this group without winning, which is the case as things stand.

One big reason to expect Switzerland to get back to winning ways here is because of how strong they are on home soil. Sure, they lost to Spain earlier in this group but they are the Europeans Champions after all!

In fact, this team has only lost twice at home in all competitions since the beginning of November 2020. The other loss also came against Spain! Furthermore, Serbia have won only two of their last eight on their travels (outside of Euro 2024), of which they failed to score in four of those.

Switzerland are currently on an 11-game run in all competitions where over 1.5 goals were involved. Considering the state of this game, which has significance for both teams, it should be more likely to contain goals than not so. That is because a draw doesn’t necessarily do many favours for Switzerland, which should ensure quite an open contest on the night.

Regarding Serbia, three of their four group games in this UEFA Nations League campaign have also surpassed the two or more goals marker. A draw would only be an OK outcome for Serbia if Denmark dropped points v Spain, but even then Serbia would have to defeat Spain next up and hope Denmark drop points again. It is asking a lot in that case so winning is their best port of call travelling to Switzerland.

Being the home team, it is natural to expect Switzerland to take the game to Serbia, at the very least initially. Without doubt, a victory is the only good result for Murat Yakin’s side. Serbia are the perceived weakest team out of the four on paper so they have to be winning here to realistically give them a shot at avoiding relegation outright. The Swiss enjoy it at home on a count of rarely losing on home soil over quite a number of years now, so they know how to get the job done in front of their own supporters.

Over their UEFA Nations League fixtures Switzerland have earned an average of 5.75 corners per game. In three of those four they would achieve over 3.5, so they have form in that regard. Even over the course of Euro 2024, this team averaged 4.40 corner kicks. They just know how to create such situations given the creative talent they possess.

Serbia are also a team that do not earn many corners themselves and that has been proven recently. Dragan Stojković’s outfit have lost the corner kick battle in their four UEFA Nations League games. In all four the opponents have enjoyed at least six corners, so that merely needs to continue on Friday for this bet to prove successful once again.

This game has the potential for cards considering it is towards the end of the group phase and tensions will be running higher than usual. Everything becomes that bit more final, knowing three points are even more vital, whereas losses are felt more greatly. The reason for backing Serbia to collect some cards are the fact they have had issues playing away from home and they’ll go into this knowing it’ll likely be a tough night for them win, lose or draw.

Serbia are also on a nine-game run where they have received a minimum of two cards in the match. Last time out against Spain, they even had a man sent off when Strahinja Pavlović was dismissed with a straight red. Heading into this round of fixtures, Serbia are ranked joint-sixth in the UEFA Nations League for most yellow cards received.

There is one statistic that is pretty damning when it comes to Serbia’s UEFA Nations League. This is based around the sheer number of shots the opposition has been having against them. On average, Serbia’s opponents are having 18 shots. This certainly offers plenty of encouragement for Switzerland ahead of Friday’s fixture.

Specifically regarding shots on target, 5.50 on average is the number that the opponents have conjured up. Only that merely needs to be maintained once more for this selection to be successful. In return, Serbia have only averaged two shots on goal themselves, so they have been second best pretty much every time in that respect, even despite beating Switzerland at home.

The game state also should see the shot count tick over quite nicely. Switzerland need the win to make life that bit much easier for them. They are the home team and it has been well-documented of Serbia’s struggles away from home over the course of the last year or so.

Compared to Switzerland, Serbia are the much more aggressive side based upon recent showings in UEFA Nations League action. The Serbs are ahead in relation to the amount of tackles made, which averages 13.75 per match. This demonstrates they are willing to get stuck in and they cannot and will not always be successful in this.

Again, the game state has to come into account. Their struggles away from home will likely bring out some frustrations that will attract the referee. They’ll try to win themselves to boost their top-two hopes, but their away form of late suggests they may have issues doing so. Therefore, a few untimely challenges could also spill out, either forced or through frustration.

Serbia are also averaging 3.25 cards per clash in this competition this season. They’ve also already had a red card to their name, which is enough to prove how they can let their emotions get the better of them. Switzerland are averaging slightly fewer cards but being at home and the fact they should control the game more efficiently reduces the likelihood of cards in their direction.

Cards flying in the direction of Serbia is anticipated compared to Switzerland, and the one man who tends to be a recipient is star striker Aleksandar Mitrović. The Al-Hilal centre forward is having a great time of it over in Saudi Arabia in terms of scoring goals, so there is less chance of him being booked on a count of built-up frustration.

That is different at international level however given there is jeopardy in this match. It is one they really need to be winning realistically. The ex-Newcastle man clearly has a short fuse and again something small could set him off. He is also one of the highly experienced players in the squad and he may perhaps take on too much extra responsibility, to the point where again he goes a little too far.

He has also received a yellow card in two of his previous three international appearances, and also in three of his last seven. Therefore, this is clearly recent form in that regard and there is no reason to suggest it won’t continue on Friday. One of those also came in the last encounter against Switzerland.

Breel Embolo has started all of Switzerland’s UEFA Nations League matches in this group and that should continue in this crucial encounter. The AS Monaco striker has been an important player for his national team for a while. However, he is anything but a prolific goalscorer. He does offer more in attack, such as the defensive side. This in turn often leads to fouls being committed.

Embolo has plenty of form this season in terms of the fouls being made aspect, for club and country. Across his appearances this season overall, only in five fixtures has he not committed at least one foul. On average, this is a player averaging 1.55 fouls per contest.

Specifically focusing on their UEFA Nations League campaign, the forward is joint-top of the Swiss squad in relation to most fouls made. He is also by far and away their most fouled individual as well, meaning that he is just simply someone that gets into the thick of the action and is not afraid to do so.