Atletico Madrid head into this match in excellent form and very much in the La Liga title race whereas Sevilla are more of a work-in-progress. Atleti are unbeaten on home soil this season and have only lost once in La Liga full stop. Sevilla can’t quite find the consistency that they would be looking for and this is a tough assignment for the visitors at the best of times.

There aren’t too many matches which involve Atletico that go over 3.5 goals. Only 2 of their last 14 have gone over that line and one of those was against the bottom team last week. The only Sevilla game that has gone over since the opening day was away to Barcelona where any team can cop a beating. In total, just 5 of 30 matches these two have been involved in this season have had over 3.5 goals.

Sevilla are likely to target the right side of the Atletico defence here with the Belgium international Dodi Lukebakio often a key threat for them. He averages 1.37 shots on target for the season in La Liga which has him in the top 20 in the division for that statistic. He is up against a left-back who may not be able to match him for pace so there is every chance that the attacker will find a way to hit the target again here.

This could be a busy evening for the Sevilla keeper, which looks like being Alvaro Fernandez with Orjan Nyland still out injured. Atletico average 4.6 shots on target this season but are only converting around one in 7 into goals so the keeper often gets a good working out. Atleti have had 32 shots on target in their last three matches so there should be ample chance for Fernandez to save his side on at least three occasions.

The best bet in this match has to be an Atletico Madrid win. They are one of the best home teams in La Liga. They are undefeated on their own turf this season and have only lost five games there in the last 2 campaigns prior to that. They score plenty of goals at home and don’t concede many and that is a solid combination. Sevilla are a weaker side than they were in years gone by at both ends of the pitch and it is hard to see them getting anything from this game.

One area where Atletico could be exposed is down their left side where Dodi Lukebakio will be going up against Javi Galan and the full back could have to resort to unscrupulous means to contain the Belgium international. Statistically 2 fouls are likely here as the defender commits 3.10 per 90 minutes while Lukebakio averages being fouled more than once per match.

One man who is currently in decent touch for Atletico Madrid is Antoine Griezmann. He has scored in his last three matches and had the cup game in midweek off so he will be nice and fresh for this encounter. The France international will be on dangerous set pieces which could be a free go at a shot on target but even in open play he will be in or around the box regularly enough to fire an effort on target.

Another form horse for Atletico in recent times is Rodrigo de Paul. The Argentina international has three assists and a goal in his last four outings for the Spanish outfit and therefore feels like a big price to add to those statistics in a game that Atletico Madrid are expected to dominate. He has started drifting further forward in the last few games and his creativity can lead to something in terms of a goal contribution here.