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RB Leipzig v Aston Villa
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Kick Off: Tuesday 10th December at 20:00
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Competition: UEFA Champions League
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Watch Live: Amazon Prime UK
Back-to-back victories have provided a much-needed boost for both teams, following periods of winless form. This Round 6 Champions League encounter pits two sides with starkly contrasting campaigns against each other.
Aston Villa, after an electric start with three straight wins in Europe, have faltered with a loss to Club Brugge and a draw against Juventus. On the other hand, RB Leipzig’s fortunes couldn’t be more polarised—while steady in the Bundesliga, they’ve endured a dismal European run, losing every group-stage match and seeing their hopes of progression all but vanish.
⭐ RB Leipzig v Aston Villa Best Bets
RB Leipzig’s campaign has been a tale of two seasons. After a promising unbeaten start to their Bundesliga journey over 8 rounds, they’ve now lost 3 of their last 5 league matches and 5 of their last 8 in all competitions (only back-to-back wins improving this stat).
This decline is most glaring in Europe, where Leipzig are one of only three teams without a single point in the Champions League. Their defence has been shaky, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game, making them joint-worst defensively in the competition.
Aston Villa, while not immune to setbacks, remain resilient. Despite losing their last 4 away fixtures across all competitions, they hold one of the best defensive records in Europe, conceding just 1 goal in the group stages.
Their ability to frustrate opponents defensively is key, especially against a Leipzig side struggling for firepower. With Villa still fighting for a higher qualification spot and Leipzig likely to rotate their squad with their European hopes extinguished, a draw or Villa win is a pragmatic and statistically sound selection.
🟢 RB Leipzig v Aston Villa #WhatOddsPaddy Tip
This element is undoubtedly the toughest to achieve based on recent form, but Watkins’ shooting prowess suggests it’s possible. Although his European performances haven’t mirrored his domestic accuracy, his last 4 starts saw him register 9 shots on target, including 4 in his most recent outing – a game in which this exact scenario unfolded, with 2 shots on target in each half.
Likely to resume his role as Villa’s primary attacking threat, Watkins could shoulder a significant portion of the shooting duties. Given his precision, hitting the target twice per half is challenging but far from implausible.
With qualification for the Champions League’s latter stages still within reach, Villa are expected to play with attacking urgency. While their tournament average of 4 shots on target per match is modest, the games they have dominated, as seen in 2-0 and 3-0 victories achieved with 6 and 7 shots on target, respectively – just three and two shots on target off this selection.
Leipzig, with little left to fight for, may experiment with a looser tactical approach, potentially exposing gaps in their defensive structure. Should Leipzig unexpectedly take the lead, Villa would almost certainly ramp up their offensive efforts, increasing the likelihood of meeting this ambitious shots-on-target tally.
While this is undeniably a long shot, the circumstances and both teams’ contrasting objectives add layers of intrigue to this wager, at 80/1, this pick looks appealing.
👕 RB Leipzig v Aston Villa Predicted XI
🔍 RB Leipzig v Aston Villa Players to Watch
🔴 Antonio Nusa
The 19-year-old Norwegian winger has been a constant menace to opposition defences, drawing an average of exactly 1.0 fouls per game. His ability to attract fouls has been consistent, with at least 1 in 10 of his last 11 starts, including his last 3 European outings.
Up against a Villa side likely to employ aggressive defensive tactics to protect their position, Nusa’s dynamism could lead to another foul or two in this encounter.
🟣 Ollie Watkins
The focal point of Villa’s attack, Watkins has been instrumental in their success, contributing to 10 of their 22 league goals. His precision is evident, averaging 1.1 shots on target per game and hitting the target in each of his last 4 starts.
Against a Leipzig side conceding an average of 5.2 shots on target per game in Europe, Watkins is primed to add to this total.
📂 RB Leipzig v Aston Villa Cheat Sheet
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💻 RB Leipzig v Aston Villa Form and Tactics
RB Leipzig have managed to halt their slump with back-to-back victories across all competitions, but their preceding 6-game winless streak, including 5 defeats, has left them reeling. Their Champions League hopes are virtually extinguished, sitting 6 points adrift of the knockout spots in the group.
With a 9-point gap to Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich, Leipzig’s priorities seem to be shifting toward securing a top-four domestic finish, with the battle intensifying as just 6 points separate 4th place from 11th.
A lack of tactical stability has compounded their struggles, as they oscillate between formations. This inconsistency has bled into their European performances, where they’ve averaged just 45% possession, significantly diminishing their control in matches.
Aston Villa’s back-to-back wins have steadied the ship after an 8-game winless streak, including 5 losses, across all competitions. Currently trailing Monaco, only on superior goals scored, for an automatic Champions League quarterfinal promotion spot, Villa’s campaign has been defined by their defensive solidity in Europe, conceding just once across 5 matches.
This resilience has even neutralised the firepower of teams like Bayern Munich. Domestically, Villa’s form has been shakier, but in Europe, their preferred 4-2-3-1 setup has allowed them to dictate greater possession and control games. Expect them to adopt a similar approach, leveraging their organisation to stifle Leipzig’s inconsistent attack while probing for opportunities to secure a vital result.
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🏁 RB Leipzig v Aston Villa Ref Watch
- Referee: Maurizio Mariani (Italy)
- Mariani has given 3.92 yellow cards per 90 this season, as well as 0.15 reds per game
- Across his games this season, he has awarded 24.31 fouls per game
- Mariani has also pointed to the spot often, awarding 0.38 penalties per game
Football Predictions at Andy’s Bet Club
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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