Over 600 days after Graham Potter last sat in a Premier League dugout, he’s back. The 49-year-old has switched West London for West Ham and is an exciting appointment for a fanbase starved of entertaining football this season. Potter typically favoured a back three during his time at Brighton and Chelsea ,and changes are expected at West Ham to align with his tactical preference. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect from Potter’s system.

All stats below correct as of 16/01/2025

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🧠 The Philosophy

Few people had heard of Graham Potter as a manager until the 2017-18 Europa League campaign, despite guiding Ostersund from the Swedish 4^th tier up to European football. A 2-1 win at the Emirates, albeit in vain on aggregate, caught the eyes of many, including Swansea City. His sole season in South Wales saw the Swans rank highly in most attacking metrics.

• 2^nd in progressive pass distance 
• 4^th in possession
• 4^th in progressive passes
• 5^th in progressive carries

Potter’s philosophy was distinct and easy to identify, he prioritised attractive, possession-based football, even with players who weren’t always naturally comfortable with the ball.

His system emphasised breaking lines and advancing the ball efficiently, with players positioned deeper in pockets of space to help progress play upfield. This style was built around midfield overloads that gave his side control and dominance. A traditional 4-2-3-1, Potter had his perfect anchor in a double pivot in Matt Grimes who Swansea still draw on to quarterback their attacks.

Grimes ranked 5^th for progressive passes in the 18/19 system, dropping into the half spaces on the left vacated by Kyle Naughton’s aggressive overlaps, overloading opponents at a higher depth. On the right side, centre-back Mike Van der Hoorn ranked 2nd for progressive passes, using diagonal switches to exploit overloads — a concept Potter had refined during his time in Sweden. While these elements of his philosophy were in place at Swansea, his move to Brighton allowed the system to evolve further, benefitting from a more familiar setup that could be applied to a team like West Ham in a similar tactical environment.

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✏️ Brighton – Individual Quality

Potter comes into West Ham with a task similar to the one inherited at Brighton, turn around a team near the relegation zone. Potter took charge of 134 games as Brighton gaffer picking up 1.28 PPG, often using a pragmatic approach to best exploit individualistic quality against the opponent’s system.

The common alterations came in the shape of the front 3 with a 1-2 or a 2-1 in front of a midfield 4 and a back 3. Often the 2-1 with a pair of 10s allowing for a box of 4 in midfield to overload in possession with high wing backs holding their width to give a 3-2-5 build shape. Marc Cucurella was often used as a left-sided centre half with wing backs such as Leandro Trossard playing on the front foot with the likes of Alexis Mac Allister as a 10 getting as much individual quality on the pitch as possible. The 2 10s and holding midfielders staggered their depths to allow for constant progression and then the ability to get the ball wide to the likes of Trossard which is why Potter’s sides rank so highly in crosses per 90. 

The holding midfielders are pivotal to this system with Potter bringing the best out of the likes of Moises Caicedo, who fetched Brighton £115m from Chelsea. A front-footed line of 5 in possession allowed for Potter to sit his DMs on the edge in possession restricting opponents’ counters and setting up for an out-of-possession counter press. By doing so, these holding midfielders essentially acted as both protectors and playmakers. On the defensive side, they helped to restrict counter-attacks by occupying central spaces and providing support to the centre-backs. On the attacking side, they helped control possession and often provided passes to the wide areas or runners in more advanced pockets.

This positioning setup also set up for an effective out-of-possession counter-press. If Brighton lost the ball, these deep midfielders were in a perfect spot to quickly initiate a high press or obstruct passing lanes, disrupting the opponent’s counter-attacks before they could gain any momentum.

There is plenty of potential for fouls in these positions with West Ham’s most recent game v Fulham demonstrating this with 8 fouls involvements across the pair of 6s.

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🗒️ West Ham First 2 games – Players to Note

Lucas Paqueta

Potter’s ability to develop individuals and get the best out of them in his systems has been a prominent feature, particularly at Brighton and we can expect the same from him. Take Lucas Paqueta, who can be utilised in an abundance of attacking roles and has found the back of the net in 2/2 under Potter. Paqueta has the ability to play as a winger, 8 or 10 and even played as the 9 v Fulham albeit not in the same role Niclas Fullkrug was deployed in v Villa.

Paqueta already looks like great value to excel under Potter. In the league, he’s had 2+ shots in 4 of his last 5, with 10 in that stretch including games away to Man City and at home to Liverpool. He found the back of the net 9 minutes into Aston Villa away in the cup and scored again against Fulham playing in more of an advanced role.

His next 4 games are against Crystal Palace (4.05 SOT/90 allowed), Aston Villa (3.95 SOT/90 allowed), Chelsea (4.33 SOT/90 allowed) and Brentford (6.19 SOT/90 allowed).  Paqueta’s role is one to track with Fullkrug, Michail Antonio and Jarrod Bowen all out injured. He’s 1.73 for a SOT this weekend and 2.88 to register another goal contribution.

Potential Betting Angles:

➡️ Paqueta Foul Involvements (3.48 p/90)
➡️ Paqueta Bookings (Leads the squad in yellow cards this season (6))

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Aaron Wan-Bissaka 

Aaron Wan-Bissaka provides another pivotal cog in this Potter machine with the former United man’s defensive capabilities fitting like a glove when rotating into a back 3 in-possession. Wan-Bissaka allows for Emerson Palmieri or Oliver Scarles to be freed up down the left which in turn drifts Paqueta inside to form that box 4 overload in midfield. The fluidity of the system should draw the best out of the Brazilian in weeks to come.

A traditional feature of Brighton under Potter will see him and Kudus pick the ball up via progressive passes and given the licence to drive, something the latter needs no invitation to do.

Potential Betting Angles: 

➡️ Wan-Bissaka Tackles (1.74 p/90, 70.6% tackle success-rate)

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Crysencio Summerville

Causing the overload, similar to Naughton’s role at Swansea, should in theory open up space down the right and that’s where we’ll be keeping a close eye on Crysencio Summerville on return from injury. At Villa Park, he showed signs of the player he was last season with an assist, 2 key passes, 100% dribble success rate and 100% duels won. Isolating a player of his electricity in wide areas can only lead to strong attacking output and we expect the Hammers to depend on him significantly from here.

Potential Betting Angles: 

➡️ Summerville Shots (1.61 p/90)
➡️ Summerville Fouls-Drawn (2.64 p/90)

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