David Raya will have to be at his very best if Arsenal are to get a result here, and he has experience of facing a barrage of attacks at the Etihad before. Arsenal have not won at the Etihad since 2015, so there are going to be nerves in that Arsenal squad ahead of this clash, and this could see them shrink a little in those important moments.

Raya was forced into making nine saves when Arsenal last travelled to the Etihad. Arsenal did go down to 10 men in that game, but it’s still a good example of the volume of shots that Raya can expect here from a City side that look in the mood and have a ridiculous record in April under Pep Guardiola. Raya was forced into two saves when the sides met earlier in the season, and I’d expect City to improve on that here with their newfound confidence.

Manchester City drew five saves from Robert Sanchez last time out as they came away 3-0 winners over Chelsea. They also drew three saves from Giorgi Mamardashvilli in their 4-0 hammering of Liverpool at the Etihad, showing that even if City do run away with this game a little, they can still test Raya on at least three occasions. 

Everyone is now aware that Arsenal struggle to create chances from open play, and I think it comes back to their recruitment. Players like Eberechi Eze, Noni Madueke and Viktor Gyokeres are all decent players in isolation - but were they really an upgrade on what Arsenal had in those positions already? 

Arsenal’s struggles from open play are best highlighted by their xG from open play, which sits at 30.05, 6th in the league overall. This is really poor for a side that sits top of the league, even Bournemouth have produced a higher xG from open play this season. However, Arsenal dominate the league when it comes to efficiency from set pieces - 30% of their goals in the Premier League have come from non-penalty set pieces, with most of those being corners.

Arsenal racked up 11 corners when the sides met at the Emirates earlier in the campaign, and fell just one short of this line in the recent meeting at Wembley. Arsenal are averaging 5.97 corners per game in the Premier League this term, only Newcastle (6.50) are winning more corners per game than Arsenal this season. This stays pretty steady when looking at their away record (5.75 per game), suggesting that Arsenal can once again cover this corner line as their main route to goal. 

Martin Zubimendi looks shattered at the moment, and I think that’s why his performance levels have dropped a bit across recent months. I’ve still been impressed with him across the season as a whole, and his struggles are probably more down to Arsenal not having a suitable backup to Zubimendi, with Arteta barely using Christian Norgaard all season.

Zubimendi sits the deepest of Arsenal’s midfield trio, and has committed a foul in both of the head-to-head meetings between the sides this season - in the EFL Cup final, and the 1-1 draw between the sides at the Emirates earlier on in the campaign. He’ll be important if Arsenal are to get anything from this game. He’s committed 28 fouls across his 31 starts in the Premier League this campaign (0.94 per 90), and should be regularly tested by Rayan Cherki.

Cherki was the best player on the pitch against Chelsea last time out. He’s drawn 30 fouls across his 15 starts in the Premier League this season (1.95 per 90), and should be instrumental for City here as they look to pile the pressure on Arsenal. Arsenal committed 12 fouls in the EFL Cup final, which they lost 2-0, and 11 fouls when they netted a last-minute equaliser in the game between the sides at the Emirates.

One of the most interesting trends to track this season with Manchester City is how they’ve become more aggressive. Pep Guardiola’s side have never been known as agitators, or a team that have a particularly high foul count - but that has changed a little this season:

Manchester City Average Fouls and Yellow Cards 2021-2026 

2021/22 - 8.40 fouls per game (42 yellow cards) 

2022/23 - 9.10 fouls per game (44 yellow cards)

2023/24 - 7.60 fouls per game (52 yellow cards)

2024/25 - 7.60 fouls per game (57 yellow cards) 

2025/26 - 10.1 fouls per game (57 yellow cards)*

*7 games remaining. 

This is a clear pattern that shows that Guardiola has adapted his side to match the physical intensity of the league, which is something that was missing from Manchester City last season. This is linked to the arrival of Pep Lijnders as an assistant coach, who has definitely made the side more competitive in these areas, previously working under Jurgen Klopp at Liverpool.

Manchester City have committed 10+ fouls in both of their games against Arsenal this season, and should be able to cover this foul line again here given the extra context surrounding the game, which should make it a feisty affair that sees Manchester City commit at least 10 fouls, in line with their average across the season as a whole - the highest average they’ve posted across the last five seasons. 

I'm under no illusion this is a punt, but it's a boost I'm happy getting behind.

Arsenal would probably be happy taking a point, whilst City know they need to win. The last time they played at the Etihad, City managed 33 shots, with 11 on target and eight corners, compared to Arsenal with just five shots, three on target and two corners.

Going off recent form, Arsenal have been struggling to attack, depending more on their defensive resilience to get by. At home to Sporting, they managed just one shot on target, with Sporting managing the same. Against Bournemouth, they managed just one shot on target in the first half, and that was from a penalty. Even the game prior, away to Sporting, they lost the shot on target battle 5 to 4.

In the EFL Cup game, I feel like they got sussed out by City in the second half. City managed two goals whilst Arsenal had just one shot on target against them in that half, and to be honest Arsenal looked quite poor towards the back end.

City will be right up for this, and no doubt Arsenal will too, but at 17/1 I think it's worth a fiver for a bit of fun if City do dominate.