Jerv v Haugesund

The first thing to say about this match is that there is a risk of postponement due to a COVID outbreak in the Jerv squad. Their match against Molde last week was called off at the last minute and their midweek Norwegian Cup game vs Odd also had to be rescheduled. There is a much better chance that this fixture goes ahead though, and this is set to be a hectic week for Jerv. They host Haugesund, then travel to Molde on the 6th July, before travelling to Rosenborg just a few days later. This is going to be a brutal test for the worst squad in the Eliteserien and a team who have been badly struggling for form recently. Jerv have lost their last five consecutive league games and only have seven points on the board. It is highly likely they will get relegated this year; they simply aren’t good enough. Jerv have the second worst average xG per 90 mins (0.99) and the worst xGA in the league per match (2.09). Considering that a lot of the squad would not have been able to train properly this week then they could be really lacking sharpness.

Haugesund travel here with just one defeat in their last seven games. They started the season in appalling form by losing five consecutive matches but have done really well to turn things around. Manger Jostein Grindhaug deserves plenty of credit for that. He has been helped by an improving injury situation and the excellent form of two attackers Alioune Ndour and Alexander Søderlund. Ndour is now the joint leading goalscorer in the Eliteserien and his brace last week vs Viking moved him to 8 goals for the season. He is a physical beast at this level and has improved a lot technically this year to improve his finishing. The main problem for Haugesund this season has been a leaky defence which has conceded the most out of any team in the league (24). This is a legitimate concern because their xGA is 20.04 but they are now facing one of the worst attacking sides in the league, so their defensive frailties might not be such a big problem here.

Haugesund’s odds to win this match at the time of writing are 2.10, which could look like a massive price come the full time whistle. Anything above 1.75 would represent an excellent value bet considering the circumstances. Haugesund are much the better team anyway and should have enough to win, but Jerv have endured a difficult time recently both on and off the pitch. It is unknown exactly who has been affected with COVID in their squad, but they reportedly only had 13 fit players last weekend. There is still a chance this match could be postponed but the expectation is that the fixture will get played. The best bet at a juicy price definitely looks like Haugesund to simply win on the nose.

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Odd v Bodø/Glimt

Odd are now the only remaining side in the Eliteserien without a draw this season. They have won 5 games, lost 7 and are very much an all or nothing type of team. Odd were very lucky to beat Vålerenga away 1-0 last week. They were largely outplayed but took their chance when it came and somehow managed to hold out for a clean sheet. They were outgunned 1.91 to 0.99 on xG. Goalkeeper Leopold Wahlstedt has been one of the standout keepers in the Eliteserien this season and put on a clinic last week making several key saves. Odd have lost their last four consecutive home games and their main problem has been converting chances into goals. They have the 4th highest home xG out of any team (11.88) but only scored 7 goals in front of their own fans. At some stage it is likely they might become more clinical, but they probably need to invest in a better, more prolific striker during the next transfer window.

Bodø/Glimt will be pleased that they have returned from the international break by claiming two consecutive wins in the Eliteserien. They have only beaten rock bottom Kristiansund and newly promoted Aalesund, but the defending champions have looked more in control of matches and restricted the chances of the opposition. Glimt also won 1-0 away to Vålerenga in the midweek cup and it seems that their defence is suddenly more reliable. It might be that this improvement was always going to eventually arrive though. Glimt have one of the best xGAs in the league with 1.04 per 90 mins. The international break was clearly beneficial to this team who needed a rest and to work on a few things in training. The form of crucial attacker Amahl Pellegrino has been impressive recently. He has a touch of class and the X-factor sometimes required to break down teams.

Odd are so poor at home that it makes sense to bet against them. They surprised everyone by winning this fixture 1-0 last season, but I expect Bodø/Glimt to be too strong this weekend. It feels like this Glimt outfit, which has been a well-oiled machine during the last two years, is just starting to fire again. This is definitely a good time to keep backing Kjetil Knutsen’s men because they have some momentum and the quality required to go on a decent run. I think the best bet is to take the away side just to win outright at 1.70. The way their defence has been improving it wouldn’t be a surprise if they won this match to nil again, with the 0-2 scoreline perhaps most likely.

Ham Kam v Molde

Newly promoted Ham Kam have done well this season and moved up to 9th place after beating Sarpsborg 3-2 last week. They twice came from behind in that match to secure the victory which was their second in a row in the Eliteserien. Ham Kam have only lost twice all season and have drawn 6 out of 11 fixtures. They have been hard to beat but have also been overperforming their xG metrics at both ends of the field. In front of goal, Jakob Michelsen’s men have been clinical, hitting the back of the net 17 times compared to their overall xG of 12.76. At the other end of the field, their 17.71 xGA has only resulted in 14 goals being conceded. They have all the hallmarks of an overperforming team and it is questionable whether they can keep this up long-term. Ham Kam have been decent at home this season with just one defeat in six games. They are well supported by a passionate home fanbase and the key to this team are their trio of attackers Kristian Eriksen, Jonas Enkerud and Pal Alexander Kirkevold, all of whom are strong physical players.

Molde travel here having won their last six consecutive Eliteserien matches. They did not play last week because their match vs Jerv was postponed. In the meantime, they have been keeping sharp by winning in the Norwegian Cup. Molde are second in the table, with a game in hand and have the best away record out of any team with 4 out of 5 wins on the road. Molde have scored 22 goals this season and they have a lot of scoring firepower in all areas of the field. Their overall xG of 19.36 represents that fact and now that young Ivorian striker David Datro Fofana is starting to find his scoring boots then this team has become even more dangerous. Molde have conceded the joint fewest goals in the league (11), but their overall xGA is 15.51. Goalkeeper Jakob Karlstrom who signed from Tromsø during the winter has been one of the main reasons why they’ve overachieved this metric, but they can’t rely on him all the time.

Molde are priced at 2.0 to win this match which are not bad odds. They are the better team, and I would expect them to have too much for a newly promoted outfit. However, I think the best bet is to take over 2.5 goals. As aforementioned, both sides have overachieved their xGA metrics this season and have been fortunate not to concede more goals. The style that both teams play, generally with a 3-4-3 system can really leave them vulnerable to wing backs, of which there are several good ones set to feature in this game. I prefer taking over 2.5 goals compared to both teams to score because Molde are capable of winning this game 3-0 or 4-0 themselves. Ham Kam can contribute as well though and should be able to hit the back of the net.

Sarpsborg v Sandefjord

It was a surprise that Sarpsborg lost 2-3 away to Ham Kam last week. I expected them to have too much for the newly promoted side, but they twice blew the lead to ultimately end up with nothing. It was actually Sarpsborg’s 4th defeat in 6 games although sandwiched in that run were two highly impressive victories 5-0 vs Jerv and 5-1 vs Strømsgodset. This Sarpsborg side are quite a wild and crazy team under the management of Stefan Billborn. Their 24 goals scored is the joint most in the league and they are a legitimate scoring threat with xG numbers of 1.91 per 90 mins. There is a lot of attacking potential in the team and the manager is happy to take risks in order to score goals. This makes them more vulnerable defensively and they have the 3rd worst xGA out of any team in the league, averaging 1.71 per match. Billborn will be content with this because he has promised an attacking and exciting brand of football this season. Sometimes, they will lose matches like they did vs Ham Kam last week but when this team fires on all cylinders it is hard to stop.

Traveling here are a Sandefjord side who are vastly overperforming compared to their xG metrics. They have the worst xG out of any team (9.2) but have scored 16 times. Their defence isn’t very good, and the 19 goals conceded correlates to their xGA of 19.5. There is a case to be made that statistically, Sandefjord are certainly as bad as Jerv, yet they have 13 points in the table. Last week was another example where they obtained an undeserved 2-2 draw at home to Tromsø. They were outgunned 2.10 to .0.95 in xG terms but were once again clinical with their finishing. The form of attacker Mohamed Ofkir is a major positive this season. Both him and Alexander Ruud Tveter have scored five goals each and their counter attacking style is effective, especially away from home. Sandefjord actually have the second best away record out of any team with 4 out of 6 wins.

I am expecting Sarpsborg to be too strong here and win convincingly. They have the firepower to take this terrible Sandefjord defence to the sword and it wouldn’t shock me if they scored 3 or 4 goals on their own. The price on the home side to win is just 1.44 though and I think a better value bet in addition to a safer selection is to take over 2.5 goals at 1.57. Sandefjord can probably hit the back of the net at least once and catch Sarpsborg on the break, even if their xG metrics are worrying. Equally, over 2.5 covers for the potential Sarpsborg blowout victory 3-0 or 4-0. A massive 9 out of 10 Sandefjord matches have ended with over 2.5 goals this season, and this looks like the top selection all things considered.

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