Milsami v KuPS

An uncharacteristic sloppy performance from the league leaders in the home game has given Milsami a lifeline in this tie, despite the very one-sided showing. Leading twice through goals from their two stars Ikaunieks and Vayrynen, they conceded two with the second being a particular gift from the normally impeccable Kreidl in goal. KuPS are still without centre-back Paulo Ricardo and will need to stay solid this week.

Sunday’s home game against HIFK was the perfect training exercise, coasting to a 5-1 victory with five different scorers, new signing Jaakko Oksanen with the pick of the goals and showing a gulf in quality that suggests his return to Finland may be brief if foreign clubs are watching. Alas the trip from Kuopio to Moldova is an epic one, the itinerary involved a flight to Bucharest via Frankfurt and a twelve-hour coach journey.

The growing KuPS squad has more than enough quality to win this tie but their opponents have shown a wily side in their campaign so far, conceding territory and possession yet keeping themselves in it. Last year’s run to the play-off round had an exciting journey with tense away wins in Ukraine and Kazakhstan – anything less this year will be seen as a failure and further add to the financial clouds being kept away by benefactor Ari Lahti. A likely tie against Young Boys is a big incentive to proceed and at least a shorter journey to Switzerland.

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Paide vs Ararat Armenia

The European adventure continues for Paide, at least for now. Having been complete underdogs in the previous round against Dinamo Tbilisi, and overcoming them on penalties to win their first ever European tie. There will be a sense of optimism surrounding Estonia and the Pärnu Rannastaadion when Ararat Armenia visit.

The first leg ended as a drab 0-0 draw, with both teams not really showing much class. Paide of course were the happier of the 2 teams, with now nothing to lose going into the second leg. Ararat Armenia were the better side in the first leg, but you could tell that they are still effectively in their preseason. Mis placed passes and wayward shooting was the story of the game for the Armenians, with Paide goalkeeper, Mihkel Aksalu only making 1 save during the 90 minutes of play.

Paide have the pleasure of being fully focused on Europe at the moment. Their league game at the weekend was postponed, which has allowed extra preparation for this game. Ararat Armenia will be the same, with the Armenian league season starting next week.

Paide have a squad at full strength, and will be hoping the key players, Deabeas, Luts and Singhateh can step up and show their quality. 

Another close game is expected in this one. Paide have nothing to lose and I’m sure will go out and attack this one, with a packed out Pärnu Rannastaadion and the whole of Estonia cheering them on.  Ararat Armenia have the added pressure of not finishing the tie in the first leg, as was expected of them, so will also be going for Paide’s throats.

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Elfsborg v Molde

The first leg resulted in a comfortable 4-1 Molde win. Rasmus Alm gave Elfsborg an early lead which they held onto until half time. However, the Eliteserien league leaders produced a scintillating second half to eventually prevail comfortably. Molde are a team who have great goal scoring potential in their ranks. They have also been boosted by key midfield playmakers Magnus Wolff Eikrem and Ola Brynhildsen returning from injury. Both have great technical skills and Brynhildsen made an important contribution off the bench away to Sandefjord on Sunday scoring the winning goal in a 3-2 win. Molde racked up over 20 attempts last week vs Elfsborg and fired 12 on target. They probably could have scored even more goals but missed some good chances. Striker David Datro Fofana is an enigma of a player who clearly has great flair, x-factor and pace but lacks composure. He will likely get some good opportunities on the break in this match.

Elfsborg simply have to go down swinging in this second leg. They must score at least three goals to have any chance and I doubt they will die wondering. They were outplayed in Norway but still managed to get on the scoresheet and created a few chances of their own. The main Achilles heel for Elfsborg is defence where they’ve simply not kept enough clean sheets this season. They lost 0-1 away to Kalmar on Sunday despite outgunning them 2.04 to 0.56 on xG. Only three teams have netted more than Elfsborg in the Allsvenskan this season and they do have goal scoring potential. Manager Jimmy Thelin has done a great job here in recent years, but this is only a mediocre, if not disappointing campaign for the team from Boras. They are currently residing as low as 10th place, comfortably clear of relegation but more was probably expected.

Over 2.5 goals comfortably won in the first leg, and this looks to be the best bet again. Elfsborg simply have to go for it to have any chance of turning this tie around. They are close enough on aggregate for this match to still matter and they won’t just give up before a ball is kicked. It is likely Molde will have several chances on the break in this game when Elfsborg take more risks. I think that over 2.5 goals are priced so generously at 1.67. It would be a surprise if Molde just defended in this second leg, it is not their style. The only danger is if the match peters out into a drab contest where it is obvious Molde will qualify. But before that happens three goals will likely have been scored.

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Levadia v Hibernians

 Levadia come into this game under pressure. Having been largely disappointing in Europe this season, being pumped 6-1 by Vikingur of Iceland, and losing the first leg of this tie 3-2 there is that ounce of pressure. Levadia are the second-best team in Estonia and for them to go out to a team who current league leaders Flora Tallinn easily disposed of in this competition last year, would be an embarrassment.

Levadia were actually 3-1 down in the 90^th minute, but Ernest Agyiri managed to pull a goal back in the 94^thminutes, something which is being called ‘potentially Levadia’s biggest goal this season.’

The first leg showed what Levadia have been about this season. Decent going forward and extremely sloppy at the back. Hibernians goals were easily avoidable from a defensive point of view.

Levadia had league action off this weekend and would have no doubt spent the extra time studying where they went wrong in Malta and will be feeling fresh and prepared coming into this one.

With no injuries worries or suspension, Levadia will have a full to squad to turn to for this game. Star man Beglarishvilli tends to go missing in the bigger games, and more is expected from Brazilian striker Liliu. These two are key for Levadia going forward

Levadia will start this game on the front foot and attack from the start, knowing that they need more than a win. With Estonian teams tending to play better when at home in Europe, this could bode well for the current league champions. The pressure is on, but this is a winnable game

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Lillestrom v SJK

The first leg of this tie turned in just two minutes. A Jake Jervis penalty hitting the post was followed quickly by the winner from Dragsnes. Lillestrom’s performance sucked the life out of an SJK side who are slowly growing in confidence after a poor season so far and now have a mammoth struggle to overcome superior opposition to progress. The main highlight was the visiting fans, bringing noise, pyro and support to their side.

Like KuPS, SJK had ideal opponents on Sunday as they rotated and coasted to a 1-3 victory away to a Lahti side featuring two 16 year olds in midfielder and a 40 year old goalkeeper. Young striker Tuomas Kaukua strolled through the weak defence from his own half to seal three more points which may return his club to the Conference League next season.

But for this year, SJK travel to Norway still with a chance. They’ll require a historic performance, having never won a European away match before and with a disjointed squad of promising youngsters and European journeymen. Jervis won a hat-trick hat (a real thing in Finland) for his treble against Flora in qualifying round one and didn’t play at the weekend so should be fit and raring to go.

Lillestrom’s year has gone a lot better than that of their opponent and should have enough in the tank to coast into round three.

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Viking v Sparta Prague

The first leg resulted in an unlikely 0-0 draw as Viking somehow resisted Sparta Prague’s assault. The Czech side completely dominated the contest and outgunned Viking 2.51 to 0.36 on xG. I don’t think it was necessarily Viking’s gameplan to go into their shell and just defend but the situation dictated that they had to be cautious against a Sparta side who played well on the day. The only thing they couldn’t do was find the back of the net despite nearly 30 attempts. They only had five shots on target which wasn’t efficient enough. Let’s not forget that Sparta have yet to start their domestic campaign, so it was perhaps understandable that they showed some rustiness in certain areas. Between both boxes they looked good, and in fairness they also limited Viking to very few opportunities. Jan Kuchta, formerly of city rivals Slavia Prague is on loan from Lokomotiv Moscow. The striker, valued at nearly £5m made his debut in the first leg and was one of the guilty parties missing good chances.

Viking will be pleased to have drawn 0-0 in the first leg and it gives them a fighting chance of making it through. The problem is this is not the same Viking team that finished 3rd in the Eliteserien last season. Crucial midfielder Joe Bell moved to Brondby during the winter and now in this window key players such as top scorer Veton Berisha and young midfielder Sebastian Sebulonsen have both transferred away from the club. The best player remaining is attacker Zlatko Tripic but he has been nursing several injuries recently and was also suspended for 3 straight league games. He is basically not sharp enough right now and defender Giovanni Stensness has also been on the sidelines. Vålerenga beat them comfortably 4-2 on Sunday and it was worrying how many chances they conceded. Viking have only won 2 of their last 9 league games and haven’t been in very good form.

The Norwegian outfit will be cheered on by a passionate home crowd, but it is clear to see that Sparta Prague are the better of the two teams. I would expect the Czech outfit to progress, and they are best priced 1.91 to win. Those odds look acceptable, but a better selection could be taking the visitors to score over 1.5 goals at 1.83. Viking will go down swinging if they fall behind, and if they get inspired might even cause an upset. Based on what we saw last week though, they cannot continue to get lucky by resisting the Sparta Prague attack force which is fully capable of hitting the back of the net at least twice.

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Konyaspor v BATE

The first leg was played in Konyaspor’s stadium in Turkey due to the war conditions in Belarus in this encounter without spectators. Konyaspor won 3-0. The second leg will be played again in Konyaspor’s stadium, but this time in front of stands full of Konyaspor supporters. BATE are top of the Belarusian league, but they have only won once in their last 6 games. They are not in great shape and will arrive apprehensive following a first leg battering.

Konyaspor were the most overperforming team in the Super League last season. Although they are a traditionally a low-budget team, they massively outperformed big clubs. One of the important players of the team, centre-back Abdülkerim Durmaz left the team, but he was adequately replaced by Costa Rican national Francisco Calvo. Also added was Domagoj Pavicic and Bruno Paz to the midfield, also they changed up squad depth by adding local players. Another new transfer winger Konrad Michalak scored on his debut.

Coach Ilhan Palut is enjoying a very successful spell at the helm. Konyaspor did well to keep hold of him this season with plenty of interest in him from other big Turkish clubs. He also wants to prove himself in European matches which will be yet another string to his bow. They convincingly beat BATE with a very impressive showing in the first leg. There are no significant injuries in the squad. They are stronger than BATE in every aspect and should record yet another convincing victory on Thursday night.

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Young Boys v FK Liepaja

YB have started the season in fine fashion with three wins from a possible three and ten goals scored across two competitions. Some shrewd summer recruitment has so far banished the memory of last season’s disappointment and immediately installed the Bernese side back into position as title contenders. There are many in Switzerland that believe they’ll quickly make top spot their own in the Super League.

One of those three victories for YB came in the first leg of their UEFA Europa Conference League match with FK Liepaja in Latvia last Thursday. It was a dominant performance for YB and backs-to-the-wall for the hosts, but it wasn’t until the seventy-third minute that Christian Fassnacht popped up with the decisive goal to give his side the first-leg advantage. YB were much more efficient at the weekend, leading 2-0 at Sion after six minutes en route to a 3-0 triumph at the Tourbillon. Golden boy nominee Fabian Rieder grabbed two assists in that game to add to the game-winning goal he created against Liepaja.

This should be another straightforward win for YB who will almost certainly complete the job in style at the Wankdorf. While they took some time to unlock the Latvian side’s defence last week, they shouldn’t have the same issue at home. I expect a comfortable YB win and for them to be leading at the end of both halves.

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Sligo Rovers v Motherwell

Sligo Rovers 1-0 win at Fir Park last Thursday was arguably the Irish sides greatest ever European result but now the test will be finishing the job and booking a place in the next round of the UEFA Europa Conference League qualifiers. Former Falkirk striker, Aidan Keena reminded fans in Scotland of his goal scoring abilities by pouncing on a defensive mistake to grab the decisive goal in last week’s first-leg. 

If anything, Sligo may be frustrated they didn’t win by more, with late appeals for what looked like a stonewall penalty being turned down. Motherwell fans certainly let their team know what they made of the performance at the full-time whistle and there will be major pressure on the players shoulders to avoid an embarrassing European exit. 

Despite being at home and holding a one goal advantage going into this second-leg, there will be huge pressure on the shoulders of Sligo Rovers stars given the clubs dismal home record in European competition. Only twice in fourteen European matches at the Showgrounds have the west of Ireland club come away with the win with part-time Welsh outfit Bala Town winning 1-0 in Sligo in the previous round. Only for goalkeeper Ed McGinty, Sligo would have been going out of Europe before ever seeing Fir Park. Motherwell born McGinty has since departed the Showgrounds for a move to English Football. 

There have been numerous examples in Europe this season of teams who are out of season coming on massively for a competitive game and that will be the fear for Sligo Rovers especially with the Motherwell fans lighting a fire under the backside of their players. 

Former Bohemians star Ross Tierney appeared to have an impact off the bench for the Well last week and may be pushing for a place in the starting XI. The Irish underage international is 4.5 to score anytime. 

The Steelman reached round 3 of the Europa League Qualifiers in their most recent European campaign and there will be huge questions to answer back home if they fail to at least go that far in Europe’s most minor competition. 

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Crusaders v FC Basel

FC Basel will be grateful for their first leg victory over Crusaders last week after having failed to win any of their opening two games of the domestic season. There are signs of encouragement at St. Jakob-Park under the stewardship of new boss Alex Frei though, and they’ll be eager to post a second victory of the campaign on their visit to Belfast.

The opening leg of this tie threatened to become complicated for FCB at the Joggeli last Thursday, they were reduced to ten men after Taulant Xhaka’s red mist moment that resulted in two yellow cards in two minutes. Despite playing from 33 minutes onwards with the man disadvantage, the 20-time Swiss champions controlled the game overall and were more than deserving of their 2-0 win, despite a late save being required by Marwin Hitz to prevent a goal for the visitors.

Their performance on Sunday against Servette was also very good. They took the lead on the cusp of half-time and played some exciting, attacking football throughout. The visiting side struck late to earn a point that even the most fervent fan of the Genevan club would say was lucky. In truth, after a string of herculean saves, SFC had their goalkeeper Jeremy Frick to thank for the point gained.

The difference in class, even with the mismatched numbers, was very clear in the first leg. A trip to the intimate surroundings of Seaview poses an interesting challenge, but I’ve no doubt the superior quality that Basel possesses will allow them to advance to the next round. With the attacking football displayed at the weekend, I don’t think they’ll be denied in the same way they were by Servette’s goalkeeper. FCB should win this and score a few goals in the process.

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Puskas Akademia v Vitória de Guimarães

It is safe to say that this results-based mentality has seeped into Portuguese football clubs and even the Portuguese national team over the past decade. Once they have taken a one-goal, two-goal, or three-goal lead, the majority of Primeira sides will not go for the jugular and attempt to stretch their advantage, but instead, sit back, protect their lead, and guarantee the three points. After thrashing second-tier Mafra 3-0 in the first leg of the Taça de Portugal semifinals, Tondela sat back and soaked up pressure in the second leg, eventually settling for a 1-1 draw and progression to the final against Porto. It is, simply put, par for the course in Portugal.

Last week, I predicted that Vitória de Guimarães and Puskas Akademia’s meeting in Portugal would result in over 2.5 goals. Vitória opened the scoring within four minutes via Ruben Lameiras, doubled their lead on the cusp of the interval via Tiago Silva, and added a third in the 65th minute via new signing Anderson. Now, I’m predicting there will be fewer than 2.5 goals.

Having replaced manager Pepa at the helm just nine days prior, João Miguel da Cunha Teixeira, or Moreno, delivered a stellar display in Vitória’s first competitive match of the campaign. There are few men who have lived and breathed Vitória quite like Vitória, who spent nine years at the club’s academy before leaving in 2000, returning in 2004 for a six-year spell that would see him register 150 appearances for the club. Following brief spells at Leicester City and Nacional, he returned in 2013 and spent the next five years at the Estádio D. Afonso Henriques before hanging up his boots. Moreno worked in a variety of roles from assistant coach to manager of the reserves side, eventually taking charge of the first team for the final two games of the 2020/21 campaign – a 0-0 draw and a 3-1 loss to Benfica. Vitória would narrowly miss out on the final European spot to Santa Clara, and Moreno returned to his duties as reserve team manager in Portugal’s third tier following Vitória’s appointment of Pepa.

He has passed his first test with flying colors, but the job is far from finished and 90 minutes is more than enough time for Puskás Akadémia to mount a comeback – especially with their supporters cheering them on in Hungary. Moreno will be under no illusions about the importance of this fixture, and it’s evident that his prerogative will be preventing the opponents from scoring – a goal for Vitória would merely be the icing on the cake.

Vitória’s financial issues have left the club hamstrung in the transfer market, unable to renew the contract of top scorer Óscar Estupiñán, who has joined Hull City on a free transfer, unable to fend off interest for winger Rochinha, who has joined Sporting for €2 million. It seems that more exits are on the way, with O Jogo reporting that Vitória’s two starting central midfielders André Almeida and Alfa Semedo will play the second leg in Hungary before being sold in the coming days. Paços de Ferreira and Santa Clara were unable to do so last year, but if Vitória can qualify for the UEFA Europa Conference League group stage, they will give their club a much-needed financial boost, reducing the need for further departures and enabling them to bring in new players in the final weeks of the summer transfer window. Before doing so, however, they’ll need to get past Puskas Akademia, defeat Croatian side Hadjuk Split in the third qualifying round, and then eliminate their next opponent across two leagues in the play-offs. Vitória have already proven that they can create havoc in the final third, but now, they need to prove that they can shut up shop and grind out a result. Expect Moreno to come out with a relatively defensive strategy as he looks to protect Bruno Varela in goal and secure qualification to the third qualifying round of the 2022/23 UEFA Europa Conference League.

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