Sandefjord v Rosenborg

There is no doubt that Sandefjord have done well to currently be in 8th position on 21 points. The managerial duo at this club have worked wonders considering the resources and squad available to them. Right now, Sandefjord are a major candidate for overachiever of the season. It is a very tight league table though from 8th to 14th and the final relegation playoff spot is very much open for any club should they go on a bad run. Their biggest overachievement is with their xG of 22.27 which has been converted into 29 goals. The form of attacking midfielder Mohammed Ofkir has been immense and he is the type of individual who can conjure up a bit of magic from nowhere. He has now scored 9 goals this season, the second most of any player in the league behind Amahl Pellegrino. Sandefjord do have a massive problem at the other end of the field though where their 34 goals conceded is the third worst in the league.

Rosenborg travel here in very good form. They are unbeaten in seven consecutive matches and have only lost two games all season. Manager Kjetil Rekdal has done well here this season despite plenty of pessimism surrounding his appointment and the club during the winter. Rosenborg are not the finished article, and a title challenge is probably beyond them for this season, but they can definitely challenge for a medal and build towards the future. RBK have recently signed two exciting attacking players, Casper Tengstedt from Danish club Horsens and Kristall Mani Ingason from the Icelandic league. Tengstedt scored on his debut last week vs Ham Kam and arguably should have netted more goals, he got into some excellent positions. Rosenborg have scored at least two goals in four of their last five games and suddenly look a stronger offensive force. 

Over 2.5 goals or both teams to score are both viable bets for this match but Rosenborg to simply win on the nose at 1.70 looks the best bet. They won the reverse fixture 3-0 and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they dominated this match restricting Sandefjord, who tend to rely on the same two players to score their goals anyway. If Rosenborg keep Ofkir and Ruud Tveter quiet, then this should logically be a comfortable victory for the team from Trondheim.

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Sarpsborg v Bodø/Glimt

There are some serious concerns at Sarpsborg right now. They have lost their last five consecutive Eliteserien matches and are sinking like the Titanic spiralling down the table. Things started so well for Stefan Billborn’s men and there is no doubt that his brand of football is a lot more watchable compared to the previous regime at the club. However, it seems there is no plan B if things go wrong. Sarpsborg have the fourth worst average xGA per match of any team in the league (1.91) and have a legitimately bad defence. It is not because they have bad defenders, it is the system which makes them much more open. Sarpsborg definitely have goals in them, although even those have dried up somewhat in recent weeks, only netting 3 goals in their last 5 games. If their scoring continues to dry up, then this team really does have some big problems because they are incapable of keeping things tight.

Bodø/Glimt travel here in sensational form. They have won 7 of their last 8 Eliteserien matches and are absolutely flying. Incredibly, they have scored 28 goals in their last 6 competitive games in all competitions. That includes a 7-0 victory vs Odd last week and an 8-0 success in the Champions League against Linfield. Glimt now have a very important two legs vs Dinamo Zagreb in UCL qualifying, the winners of which will participate in the group stage. Obviously, that tie is worth at least £10 million to the club so there is a chance they might be distracted. However, it is four days until the first leg, and they also need to maintain their Eliteserien title challenge. There are some injury doubts to goalkeeper Nikita Khaykin and full back Brice Wembangomo. It is possible neither will be risked here and that would make sense. 

Bodø/Glimt are priced at 1.70 to win this match and those odds actually look generous. However, an even better bet looks to be over 3.5 goals. Glimt are the highest scoring team in the league with 44 goals and they also have the highest xG in the division (38.42). They create a lot of big chances but also have individuals such as the top scorer in the league Amahl Pellegrino who can score goals out of nothing with a bit of magic. Facing such a terrible Sarpsborg defence they should be able to fill their boots. Sarpsborg only have one chance here, to fight fire with fire and go toe to toe with Glimt on the goal scoring front. The previous meeting between the two teams this season ended 4-1 to Bodø/Glimt but for the first 30 mins Sarpsborg created several chances. They are capable of scoring one or even two goals in this match. Everything is set for a high scoring contest and over 3.5 goals looks like a great value bet.

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Aalesund v Haugesund

This doesn’t feel like a very good phase for Aalesund. They have only won 1 of their last 8 league games and head into this match off the back of a terrible 0-4 loss to Vålerenga. Aalesund have been much better on their return to the Eliteserien this year under the management of Lars Arne Nilsen. They are situated in 9^th place on 21 points. But as with all promoted teams, it is generally around this time of the season where their bubble can slightly burst, and other teams adapt to them. The biggest recent problem that Aalesund have is the loss of key striker Sigurd Haugen to Danish club Aarhus. He was their top scorer with seven goals and a massive part of their attack. AFK are not the most-free scoring side anyway and their 18 goals netted is the third lowest tally of any team in the Eliteserien. Without Haugen they look especially toothless and their xG vs Vålerenga was a terrible 0.33.

The visitors Haugesund travel here having won both of their last two matches 3-1 vs Sarpsborg and Jerv respectively. They are up to 12^th place in the table which is a significant achievement when you consider they lost their first five league games this season. Striker Alexander Søderlund is suspended but the team from western Norway have other weapons such as top scorer Alioune Ndour and former West Ham man Martin Samuelsen who is now back to full fitness after missing the early part of the campaign due to injury. Haugesund have conceded 29 goals this season but only five in their last five games. They have not solved all of their defensive issues but certainly improved at the back to make themselves serviceable. Their away record is the third worst in the league with 5 defeats out of 8 but they did hold Molde to just a 1-0 victory vs them in their most recent road game.

These two teams are ranked second and third worst for average xG in the Eliteserien. There is a good chance of under 2.5 goals in this match and that would be a tempting bet for many at odds of 1.90. I think the best bet is to take Haugesund on the X2 double chance though. Aalesund are struggling so much in front of goal that this is a great opportunity for Haugesund to keep a clean sheet and then pick them off on the break to win something like 0-1 or 0-2. If either team is to win then the visitors are definitely the team I’d favour. A draw is probably the most likely outcome with 1-1 perhaps in play, or even a 0-0. Haugesund seem underrated and Aalesund feel like a poor favourite to win. The value is on the away side to at least obtain a point.

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