The first showdown of relegated clubs in the Championship this season sees Vincent Kompany’s possession hungry Burnley travel to Vicarage Road to take on a new look Watford setup under Rob Edwards. With both sides choosing to change manager in favour of a more positive style of play, this game shouldn’t be as boring as some of the 0-0’s and 1-0’s they have shared recently.
Kompany and Edwards’ revolutions have brought new found optimism to both camps which hasn’t been seen in years. Both sides turning to home grown youngsters has seen a higher intensity as confidence levels sky rocket at this lower level. Players such as Maatsen and Pedro, both of whom I will talk about later, show maturity at a young age combined with bags of quality.
It may be early in the season but with promising starts and both sides eyeing up promotion, this could prove a pivotal match in deciding who goes up in May. With that considered and the Sky Cameras watching on, it makes perfect viewing for a Bet Builder for us all.
Watford v Burnley Bet Builder Tips
Burnley Double Chance
It has been an entertaining start to life as a manager in England for Vincent Kompany, turning a low-block, long ball side into the team with the 2nd most passes and possession. Huddersfield were coming off the back of a play-off final and Luton shouldn’t be too far off the pace so Burnley fans will be pleased with 4 points from these two games in a transition period.
A trip to Vicarage Road looks like one of the toughest fixtures in the league, especially with Sarr, Dennis and Pedro leading the line, but Watford have looked underwhelming so far. Daniel Bachmann was Watford’s saviour on Monday night, as West Brom dominated the Hornets, only rectifying a point through Ismaila Sarr’s brilliance. With just 29% possession and conceding an xG of 2.63 Watford were lucky to get away with a point and a side with higher quality will punish this.
Watford’s downfall was struggling to deal with width on Monday, particularly Jedd Wallace and the overlapping full backs. Ian Maatsen and Connor Roberts are more threatening than the West Brom pairing and should exploit their matchup against either Ken Sema or Mario Gaspar with neither up to match fitness. Watford’s front 3 could obviously pose a threat to any back line in this league and Burnley are crying out for a number 9 but the visitors should dominate this game. Unbeaten in 5 against Watford, I expect Burnley to make it 6 in a row without defeat on Friday.
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Prediction: Burnley Double Chance
Ian Maatsen to have 2+ Shots
The second leg of our bet builder concerns Burnley left back, Ian Maatsen. Signed by Vincent Kompany on loan from Chelsea, Maatsen scored the first goal of the Championship season starring on debut. He has found himself in a more positive role than he did for Coventry in the Championship, occupying an attacking position with freedom to drift more centrally and have a pop.
Ranked 6th for shots in the Championship this season, top for shots outside the penalty area and 9th for dribbles per 90, Maatsen clearly posed a great attacking threat against two of the best defences in the league last season. Full back Darnell Furlong had 2 shots against this Watford back line despite being a more traditional defensive full back. Given Burnley’s high possession stats and Watford’s weakness across the midfield 4, Maatsen should have plenty of opportunity to have a pot shot and land this leg of the bet builder for us.
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Prediction: Ian Maatsen to have 2+ Shots
Joao Pedro to have 1+ Shots on Target
The Young Brazilian was robbed of the headlines due to Sarr’s screamer, but Joao Pedro was Watford’s best attacker again on Monday night. Juggling the ball multiple times while skipping past 2 or 3 players showcased traditional Brazilian flair to match the physicality he possesses which is required for this level.
Attempting 20 dribbles in the first two games, Pedro is a ball carrier who works for the side driving the ball forward, a tactic which could help on the counter against possession hungry Burnley. When Connor Roberts and Maatsen overlap, Pedro and Sarr could pose a counter attacking threat together as a possible Watford source of goals. Similarly with Sarr’s electrifying pace, Pedro’s aerial threat could also be brought into play, which happened at Turf Moor when the number 10 split Tarkowski and Mee to register a Shot on Target.
Averaging 2.57 shots per game in the Championship, Pedro earns himself plenty of opportunities and with 0.88 SOT per game (Per my cheat sheet) he often hits the target at least once a game. Jack Cork and Josh Cullen sit deep in Burnley’s midfield which should give Pedro space as the false nine to test Muric’s hands.
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Prediction: Joao Pedro to have 1+ Shots on Target
Over 2.5 Cards
To finish off this bet builder, I like the look of Over 2.5 Cards in a closely fought feisty affair. With 9 cards combined in their first two games, both sides average 2+ cards per game and don’t look shy of making a challenge. Both sides are in the top half for fouls committed which stems from both sides being well over the league average for ball losses per 90.
Despite winning the league, Rob Edwards’ Forest Green still racked up 68 cards across the year while Kompany’s Anderlecht has 69 yellows and a league high 6 reds. This shows that although both sides averaged around the middle of the pack in cards last year, changes to their styles of play should lead to my cards as they play more positive football. Both of last year’s fixtures saw 3 cards shown and that is the bare minimum I expect today.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Cards
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How to watch Watford v Burnley in the Championship
📅 When is Watford v Burnley? / Friday 12th August 2022, 8:00PM
🏟 Where is Watford v Burnley? / Vicarage Road (Watford)
📺 What TV channel is Watford v Burnley on? / Sky Sports Main Event & Sky Sports Football
🟨 …And who is the referee for Watford v Burnley? / T.Bramall 🏴
