A blockbuster Super Sunday kicks off with a pair of games in London at 2PM with Crystal Palace v Leeds getting the nod from Sky. Having finished 12th and 17th last year respectively, Palace and Leeds have switched positions this season with the hosts now occupying the final safe spot in the league, underperforming all expectations.
Despite, a point at Anfield, going 2-0 up at the Etihad and holding Chelsea till the last minute, all this season, Palace have only picked up 6 points from 7 games with just one win. Their recruitment has been immense with young talent from the Championship often ending up at Selhurst Park, but Patrick Vieira is yet to put all the pieces together correctly.
In the other corner, Leeds received plenty of backlash following the sacking of Bielsa, but Marsch appears to be steering his ship in the right direction. Victories over Chelsea and Wolves have seen Leeds move to just a point outside the top half now with a game in hand on teams above.
These sides played in pre-season, contesting a closely fought 1-1 draw. The first match up of the PL season between these two exciting young sides is bound to be a cracker.
Crystal Palace v Leeds Bet Builder Tips
Both Teams to Score
To kick start our bet builder, we are going for a non-player based selection as we take both teams to score. Both of these sides have an abundance of attacking talent with Palace’s depth and Leeds’ explosive firepower providing threats at both end.
The visitors today lost their Starman Raphinha over the summer, after he propelled them to one of the best scoring records outside the big 6. Even after his sale to Barcelona, Leeds have maintained their creative numbers of previous years, with Rodrigo stepping up with 0.78 goals per 90 (More on him later.) Couple Leeds’ scoring rate with Palace shipping the 6th highest xGa this season and I have little doubt about Leeds scoring today.
Palace’s star names are endless and their ability to score shouldn’t be questioned. Olise flashed signs of high quality last year, Eze has also showed similar promise while Mateta, Edouard and Zaha are all proven starters and are better than the average player at this level. Palace, despite sitting 17th, have only failed to find the back of the net twice this season but netted 1+ xG in both those games, showing poor finishing which should improve given their quality.
Vieira and Marsch aren’t a pair of managers who refrain from playing attacking football and I don’t expect either of them to change their tactics for a winnable game.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score
Crystal Palace to have 5+ Shots on Target
The home side today are one of the most prolific sides in the league when it comes to testing the opposing keeper. 42.9% of Palace’s shots hit the target, a record only better by Spurs with the likes of Kane and Son. This stat is even more impressive when the league average is a meagre 36% by comparison.
Palace rank as one of the lowest sides for shots per 90 despite their prolific nature but that owes to facing the big sides such as City where they had just 2 shots and Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool where they had no more than 7. Against sides outside the big 6, Palace have had 15 with 7 on target v Villa and 19 with 9 on target v Brentford for example.
When given the opportunity to play a side not battling for Europe, Palace play more on the front foot which leads to higher shares of possession and more shooting opportunities statistically. Given their prolific nature, I find it astounding that 5+ SOT for Palace is so well priced.
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Prediction: Crystal Palace to have 5+ Shots on Target
Rodrigo to have 1+ Shots on Target
Moving on from one team’s attacking talent to the other. For our next leg we focus in on Spaniard Rodrigo for Leeds and pick him to have 1+ Shots on Target. 3 years into Rodrigo’s spell at Leeds following his transfer from Valencia and he has been underwhelming given the 30m price tag. However, prior to injury, he flashed signs of why he was signed, scoring 3 in his first 4 of the season.
Obviously, Rodrigo is a player of immense creative quality, but I also believe he presents great value for our bet builder with a SOT priced @ 1.57. Averaging 4 shots per game this season and 7 SOT in 6 games, he isn’t shy at a pop at goal. As a straight bet 2+ SOT @ 3.75 isn’t a bad idea at all. Especially when you consider that Palace ship 4 SOT against on average per game and no Leeds player averages even close to the amount of attempts Rodrigo has.
With the return of Joachim Andersen from injury, Andersen and Guehi should limit Leeds’ striker opportunities with an aggressive and top quality pairing. However, the return of Bamford should defer the attention away from Rodrigo who will drop into a number 10 position, only increasing his likelihood of a SOT.
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Prediction: Rodrigo to have 1+ Shots on Target
Tyler Adams to be Carded
And finally, to boost our odds up, a Tyler Adams card. Adams leads the Leeds players in cards and ranks second highest than Klich for fouls, who has rarely played. Both Adams’ cards have been extremely unnecessary with both coming off the ball showing his inexperience at this level and lack of discipline.
Now although Adams has this tendency to lack discipline, multiple holding midfielders have fallen victim to cards against this dangerous, electric Palace attack. Kovacic and Longstaff have both received cards against the Eagles in their last two games for holding back a break away from one of Palace’s many options. With Eze expected to occupy the number 10 role, he draws 2.13 fouls per 90 which should be more than enough for Adams to get carded especially when you consider Zaha cutting in who also draws well over 2 fouls per 90.
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Prediction: Tyler Adams to be Carded
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How to watch Crystal Palace v Leeds in the Premier League?
📅 When is Crystal Palace v Leeds? / Sunday, 9th October 2022, 2:00PM
🏟 Where is Crystal Palace v Leeds? / Selhurst Park (London)
📺 What TV channel is Crystal Palace v Leeds on? / Sky Sports Main Event & Sky Sports PL
🟨 …And who is the referee for Crystal Palace v Leeds? / S. Attwell 🏴
