Rosenborg v Strømsgodset
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Saturday 15th October – 5:00PM KO
Last week Rosenborg claimed a mightily impressive 3-0 home victory vs Vålerenga. They managed to restrict their opponents to just a 0.03 xG and moved five points clear of the Oslo club with only five games remaining. Rosenborg are strongly in the hunt for a medal spot and would dearly love to qualify for Europe automatically. If they win all of their remaining games then they would finish second, but they have some tough games still to come.
This home fixture against Strømsgodset is one of their easiest games and failure to pick up anything less than 3 points would be considered a major failure. Kjetil Rekdal’s men have the best home record of any team in the Eliteserien, winning 10 out of 12 home games with a 30:10 goal differential. The Lerkendal Stadium has become a fortress again and it is no surprise to see RBK enlisted as 1.30 odds-on favourites to prevail.
Rosenborg have scored a massive 33 goals in their last 11 matches and have been aided by the summer signing of striker Casper Tengstedt who has scored 11 goals and also supplied 6 assists since moving from Danish club Horsens, in just 9 appearances!
Strømsgodset are in poor form and lost 5 of their last 6 league games. They have 32 points in the table and should have enough to survive. Godset have been a poor away team for several years and it is no surprise to see them have the third worst road record of any team in the division. They’ve lost 7 out of 12 away games and the only teams they’ve beaten are struggling Jerv and Kristiansund.
They actually beat Rosenborg 3-0 in the reverse fixture earlier this season, but it would be a surprise if they got close to their opponents here. To make matters worse, right back Lars Vilsvik is suspended and they have several injury doubts in midfield. Jack Ipalibo, Tobias Gulliksen and Kristoffer Tokstad have all been injured recently, whilst Halldor Stenevik is another player who is suspended. This is not a squad that has much depth so they could be fielding several youngsters.
Taking Rosenborg on a -1 handicap looks like the best bet. They have been scoring so many goals recently that they look like covering this sort of line, certainly against a poor side like Strømsgodset. RBK have won 6 of their 10 home games by at least a two-goal margin and I am expecting them to dominate from start to finish. It is unlikely the visitors will put up much resistance considering their recent form.
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Prediction: Rosenborg (-1 Handicap), 1.53 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Sandefjord v Jerv
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Sunday 16th October – 4:00PM KO
This is going to be a very poor game of football between two teams who could both be relegated. All is not lost for Sandefjord who sit in 14th spot which is the relegation playoff position. Ham Kam are only 3 points above them in the table and Sandefjord still have several winnable fixtures remaining. Kristiansund have been applying some pressure from below though and the prospect of automatic relegation is also still a possibility.
Sandefjord have failed to win any of their last 10 league matches and their big problem continues to be a terrible defence which has conceded a massive 59 goals this season. The situation means they desperately need to win this game and will likely take several risks in order to get the 3 poems.
Sandefjord’s attack force is serviceable, and their 37 goals scored is the most of any side currently in the bottom six. In Mohamed Ofkir and Alexander Ruud Tveter, the home team have some weapons who have combined to score 19 goals between them this year.
Jerv are now drinking at the last chance saloon. They are rock bottom of the table on just 14 points but if they won this game then they would move within six points of Sandefjord, still with a game in hand. All is not totally lost for Jerv although for them to survive from this position would be a big shock. They have simply not been good enough for Eliteserien level and lack the quality, resources and depth needed to compete long term in the top-flight of Norwegian football.
Jerv have an appalling away record this season, losing a massive 11 out of 12 matches with a 10:36 goal differential. This is a more winnable fixture though and in terms of class this will be like an OBOS Ligaen game. Next season there is a strong realistic possibility that these two teams will be meeting in the second tier.
If we look at the xGA metrics for the Eliteserien this season, we can see that both of these teams rank worse. Jerv average an appalling 2.38 xGA per 90 mins, whilst Sandefjord aren’t much better at 2.01. Each defence is leakier than the sinking Titanic and the obvious bet here is to take over 2.5 goals at 1.45. Both absolutely have to push for a victory, and we could see a frantic, end to end type match with lots of mistakes. Both teams to score also looks like a good bet here but a simple over 2.5 definitely looks safe.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals, 1.44 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Viking v Sarpsborg
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Sunday 9th October – 4:00PM KO
Viking are in poor Eliteserien form and have only won 3 of their last 17 league matches. They started the season so well but have gradually faded due to a combination of injuries, losing key players in the transfer window, and also being involved in a gruelling European qualifying run in which they fell just short. Viking played in the midweek Norwegian Cup and beat Kristiansund 1-0 after extra time.
They needed a David Brekalo winner in the 113th minute to progress into the next round which will be against Rosenborg next year on 11th March. It is a nice boost that they have made the last 16 of that competition because in the league they are only battling for a midtable spot. Their 33 points obtained looks sufficient to avoid relegation.
Viking have conceded a lot of goals recently and the clean sheet they obtained in the midweek cup match was their first in all competitions since 11th August. They have conceded two or more goals in 8 of their last 9 Eliteserien matches.
Things were looking bleak for Sarpsborg a few weeks ago after they lost eight consecutive league matches. However, one key match in which they scored two injury time goals vs Ham Kam looks to have totally saved and transformed their season. Sarpsborg have now picked up 13 points from a possible 15 and it looks like they now probably have enough points on the board required for survival.
Crucially, their confidence is much better, and their tails are clearly up. There was always enough quality within this squad to be a comfortable midtable club but all that they needed was a boost to turn around their fortunes. Manager Steffan Billborn has employed some great attacking tactics this season and they have the 3rd highest xG of any team in the Eliteserien (49.5). Sarpsborg hammered Haugesund 4-0 last week and when this offensive train gets firing, it can be hard to stop.
Under normal circumstances I would like the idea of backing over 2.5 goals or taking both teams to score. However, both of those prices are really short. I am not sure Viking can be trusted to contribute after playing 120 mins of action just a few days ago in the cup. One thing we do know is that Sarpsborg will be fresh and ready to perform.
I think there is a good chance of a victory here and my favourite value bet for the game is to take Sarpsborg scoring over 1.5 goals by themselves. This team total pick is at juicy odds of 2.20 and I think they are very capable of managing it vs a defence which has conceded a lot of goals recently.
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Prediction: Sarpsborg Over 1.5 Goals, 2.10 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
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