St Mirren v Rangers (Premiership)

St Mirren aren’t typically a team for backing over 2.5 goals, but on Saturday at home against Rangers, it looks a good value bet. For a start, St Mirren have suddenly started conceding goals in number. In their last three games, they have leaked eight times – more than one third of their entire tally for the season. These matches were against relatively modest opponents, too.

Rangers, meanwhile, are hardly in the flush of form, but have invariably been involved in high-scoring away games this season. Indeed, all six of their away fixtures in the league have produced at least three goals.

Furthermore, the visiting side have shown that they have the capacity to score goals against the Buddies. They won 4-0 when they played at Ibrox on October 8, while they also claimed three points by the same scoreline when they last visited Paisley. 

Indeed, six of the last eight meetings between the clubs have seen at least three goals, while in these games there have only been two in which both teams have scored. 

With Rangers dominant in this rivalry, there is scope to back the visiting side to win and for the game to produce more than 2.5 goals, which given the recent history of the fixture and the sudden incapacity of St Mirren to defence, looks very tempting. St Mirren’s strong home record this season, including a surprise win over Celtic, suggests simply backing the goals is the more prudent bet.

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Aberdeen v Dundee United (Premiership)

Aberdeen will seek to sign off for the prolonged winter break with a home victory over rivals Dundee United. The Dons’ home form has been superb this season, with five wins from six matches and 21 goals scored in that time. Hibs were the latest side to suffer at Pittodrie, going down 4-0 last Friday.

Indeed, big wins have become de rigueur for Jim Goodwin’s side at home. They have netted at least four times in four of their six home matches. For this reason, backing Aberdeen -1 in this match at 3.2 is not outlandish. They appear to have been immune to their travel sickness catching in front of their home support, with only seven points having come from eight away fixtures. 

Dundee United might have won 4-0 at home against Aberdeen in October, but they will travel for this match with little confidence. The Terrors have been anything but frightening on the road, losing three of their last four matches, including fixtures against St Mirren and bottom side Kilmarnock. Prior to that, they were only able to hold struggling Ross County to a draw. They have not won an away match in the league all season.

Some pressure was eased on the embattled club, who have already replaced manager Jack Ross with Liam Fox, thanks to a thumping midweek win over Kilmarnock, but given their problems on the road and Aberdeen’s remarkable home form, there is little to suggest that they will come away with anything in this game.

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Falkirk v Edinburgh (League One)

Falkirk must put the disappointment of a derby loss against Dunfermline behind them on Saturday when they host Edinburgh, with a win vital if they want to stay in touch at the top of the table. The Bairns have lost their last couple of home matches but should bounce back against an overachieving FC Edinburgh side that is starting to fade.

Indeed, Falkirk are typically a strong home team. Before suffering back-to-back losses in front of their home support – more than 7,500 turned out last week – they had won four successive games. Indeed, it was the bedrock of their recovery after an indifferent start to the season. 

Edinburgh, meanwhile, have punched above their weight since winning promotion. They have been a dogged side but have struggled against the four full-time sides in the league. In the seven matches in all competitions they have played against Falkirk, Dunfermline, Queen of the South and Airdrie, they have lost six times. Curiously, the exception was  a 6-0 win at Airdrie, although their opponents were reduced to 10 men early in that fixture. These matches have rarely been close – five have been defeats by three goals or more, including their home match with Falkirk in August.

One thing that perhaps favours the visitors is that they have travelled well this season, only losing a couple of games on the road. However, with just one win in four, the signs are that their good start is beginning to fade. Look for that trend to continue in Falkirk.

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Stirling v Annan (League Two)

Stirling Albion lost top spot in League Two last season when a six-match winning streak in the division was ended with a 1-1 draw away from home against Albion Rovers. On Saturday, they will hope to bounce back at Forthbank against an Annan side that has typically been involved in high-scoring matches this season.

The Binos will be without a notable attacking player in the form of Robert Thomson, but their man in form is Dale Carrick, who has netted in the last seven league matches, including a late equaliser last weekend when they were down to 10 men. Indeed, with Kai Fotheringham – the division’s best winger – supplying the ammunition, the home side should still have a suitable arsenal to trouble the worst defence in the league. 

Annan, meanwhile, carry a not insignificant threat themselves. Last weekend, for instance, they scored four in a victory over Forfar. Indeed, they have netted at least twice in five of their last nine matches, despite only winning two.

In Tommy Goss, who has 10 league goals for the season, they have a player who loves turning out against the Binos. The striker has scored five times in five matches against Stirling, making them by some distance his favoured opponents along with Forfar.

With Stirling’s home matches this season averaging nearly four goals per game and Annan’s away trips only a shade under that figure, the value on over 2.5 goals in this fixture seems very good value. This is particularly the case as the Forthbank pitch is one of the best in Scotland and should stand up to the wild weather of recent days well, meaning a good game is in prospect.

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Stranraer v Stenhousemuir (League Two)

There has been no more entertaining side to watch in Scottish League Two in recent weeks than Stenhousemuir, whose games have regularly produced a plethora of goals. Each of their last six fixtures have produced at least four goals while you have to go back to the opening day of the season to find a game that did not produce at least three.

In part, this has been brought about by a weak defence that has been undermining their hopes of winning the title. Having leaked 25 goals, they have the joint poorest rearguard in the division along with Annan. On the other hand, they have scored 24 times, meaning their matches are averaging 3.77 goals per game.

Stranraer have similarly been entertaining this season. The Stair Park club have been on a run of three games in succession of under 2.5 goals in the league, but prior to that, there were eight in a row that were over that mark. Indeed, they have been particularly entertaining at home, with seven league matches yielding 23 goals. 

In total, their matches are bringing an average of 3.23 goals per game – the fourth highest total in the league. 

History also suggests this should be a high-scoring affair. Five of the last seven fixtures between this pair have brought over 2.5 goals, although it is worth noting that the two that did not were both played in Stranraer, including a 1-1 draw the last time Stenhousemuir made the long trip to Wigtownshire. Given the form that these sides are on, though, don’t expect a repeat.

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