Saturday will see the best Portuguese team of 2022 take on the breakout star of the first half of the 2022/23 campaign as Casa Pia host Porto at the Estádio Pina Manique. Having returned to the Primeira Liga after 83 years, Casa Pia currently sit fifth in the table, three points above Vitória, two behind Sporting, five behind Braga and six behind Porto in second. Despite losing key assets like Chancel Mbemba, Vitinha and Fábio Vieira in the summer, Sérgio Conceição’s side have taken 32 points from their first 14 matches and find themselves five points away from Benfica, and they have bounced back from losing their first two Champions League matches by winning the next four and topping their group, setting up a Round of 16 match-up against Inter.

Apart from a 2-2 draw to Mafra in their first of five Taça da Liga group stage matches, Porto have won all of the eight matches they have played in since the start of November by a combined scoreline of 26-3. They have closed out 2022 with a 5-1 win against Arouca, who they will play next week in the Taça de Portugal Round of 16, and they will face lower-tier Académico de Viseu on January 25 in the Taça da Liga semifinals. They are in stunning form at the moment and will be difficult to overcome, but I think this has what it takes to be a fairly cagey, low-scoring affair.

Casa Pia earned promotion thanks to a stalwart defense that conceded 22 goals in 34 matches, and they have carried that defensive solidity over to the Primeira, conceding just 11 goals in their first 14, a tally only bettered by Benfica and Porto with 10. Casa Pia fell to a 1-0 defeat to Benfica early on in the season and defeated Braga 1-0 on November 6, and in general, they have typically been a club that settles for lower scorelines. 18 of their 19 matches this season have featured under 4.5 goals, and I’m expecting that pattern to continue against the Dragons. Porto are clicking on all cylinders and have more than enough firepower to put Casa Pia’s backline under serious pressure, but whilst I think they will come away with a victory, I’m not expecting anywhere near as one-sided an affair as Porto’s recent 5-1 thrashing of Arouca. Filipe Martins’ side has kept themselves in fixtures up until the final whistle thanks to their stellar defense, and I’m expecting this solidity at the back to keep things relatively close at home.