Celtic v Kilmarnock
Celtic’s rampant form following the World Cup break was checked to some extent on Monday as they were disappointing in a 2-2 Old Firm draw against Rangers at Ibrox, but look for Ange Postecoglou’s side to bounce back with a comfortable win over a Kilmarnock side that does not travel well.
The Hoops have won every single one of their home fixtures this season in the Premiership, and with Kilmarnock desperately poor on the road, it is no surprise that Celtic are priced as short as 1.07 to get the win. Clearly, there is little value in this bet.
Looking to the goals markets improves the prices. After a couple of 2-0 victories to start the season at Parkhead, Celtic have gone on a run of seven successive games in which there have been more than 2.5 goals, with the last four fixtures alone produced 21 strikes. These have not all come in Celtic’s favour. Indeed, they have failed to keep a home clean sheet in their last six league matches, making both teams to score at 2.15 a tempting prospect given that Killie have netted three times in their last two road trips.
A safer bet, though, is simply sticking to over 3.5 goals. It has been a winning bet in five of the last seven matches between these sides. Celtic had looked in excellent offensive touch prior to splitting the points with Rangers on Monday, while they will be able to devote significant resources to this match given they do not have a midweek fixture. That spells trouble for a Kilmarnock side already beaten 5-0 at home by the league leaders this season.
Partick Thistle v Morton
It has been a case of Firhill for thrills in the Championship this season, with Partick Thistle’s home fixtures having produced a total of 43 goals in 10 games. The Jags, meanwhile, have won six of their 10 home fixtures and are aiming to improve that record further when Morton visit on Saturday.
Partick’s home matches have been laden with goals. Only one of their league matches has failed to produce at least three strikes, with that fixture their first league match of the campaign in front of their fans. That was a 1-1 draw against Hamilton. Since then, nine consecutive matches have seen at least three goals, with seven producing at least four goals and four bringing at least five.
Indeed, a repeat of the six-goal game these teams played out in October – a match that finished 5-1 to Partick – is slated at 13. Given the volume of Partick home games that have produced plenty of goals, there is value at looking at a long-odds bet such as this.
Morton’s fixtures, too, have started to produce more goals in recent weeks. Four of their last six in the league have seen the ball find the net at least three times, though their tendency to be involved in two- or three-goal games means the safest approach to this match is simply to back over 2.5 goals, which has been a winner in 10 of the last 12 league matches between the clubs.
Edinburgh v Dunfermline
Look for Dunfermline to take a tighter grip on the League 1 title race on Saturday when they visit surprise second-placed side FC Edinburgh.
The hosts are punching well above their weight this season but have struggled against the full-time clubs in the division. Against Dunfermline, Falkirk and Queen of the South, they have played six matches and lost on six occasions, scoring just one goal and conceding 16. Curiously, they have fared better against Airdrie, a side that is almost entirely full-time, winning twice against them.
Dunfermline, meanwhile, will play their first match since before Christmas, with their big derby against Falkirk last weekend frozen off. The Pars’ strength this season has been their form away from home. On the road, they have won seven of their nine fixtures, scoring 15 goals and conceding only three.
The last time these clubs met at Meadowbank, Dunfermline were easy 3-0 winners, although they were given a sterner examination at East End Park in October, when they struggled to a 1-0 success. James McPake’s side, though, are better suited to playing a team that is liable to attack them, which is why their road results have been stronger. With Kevin O’Hara expected to make a long-awaited return from injury at the weekend and fellow long-term absentee Lewis McCann also recently returned, they are arguably better equipped than at any point previously this season.
The pressure is on the guests going into this game, but this is the type of environment that they are expected to show their class in.
Dumbarton v Stirling Albion
It’s first against second in League Two on Saturday, with Dumbarton hosting Stirling Albion in an encounter that promises to be pivotal to the title race in the league. It will be the fourth time these sides will have met in league and cup this season, with Stirling having won a couple and Dumbarton claiming the honours in the other.
The last encounter was a 6-0 Stirling win at Forthbank in October, a match in which the hosts ruthlessly exploited their opponents’ inability to defend set pieces. Dumbarton will surely be far more organised in such situations this time around.
Indeed, home boss Stevie Farrell has built a pragmatic unit that offers few thrills but it typically steady and difficult to overcome. At home, they have conceded only four goals and have scored only 16, while they beat Stirling 2-0 on the opening day of the season.
The Binos, meanwhile, are a more spectacular offensive side with more impressive tools to score goals, but this has not been so evident on the road. They have netted only 15 in nine matches and are likely to find it awkward to break down their hosts in what is likely to be a tactical affair that neither side will want to lose.
The conservative nature of the home team should set the agenda for this match, which is one that could go either way, but is likely to be a close-fought encounter between the division’s two best teams. Under 2.5 goals is overpriced given nine of Dumbarton’s last 13 in the league have produced this outcome and there is much on the line.
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