St. Mirren v Hibernian
St Mirren are tremendous value ahead of their home match against Hibs on Saturday. The Buddies have a very sound home record while their opponents are not known for travelling well, so to see the hosts, who are fourth in the Scottish Premiership, at longer odds than their Edinburgh opponents should be seen as an opportunity.
Saints have lost only once at home all season and come into this match off the back of three successive victories. Their midweek win over Aberdeen was aided to some extent by a controversial red card for their opponents early in the game, but they deserve credit for closing out a 3-1 win in what was a hazardous fixture.
They will feel good about returning home to play at a venue where they have won each of their last two matches and have suffered only one loss in 12 Premiership fixtures this season. The Hibs side they face, meanwhile, has lost eight of its 12 away matches in the league.
The Hibees are in a period of marginally improved form, losing only one of their last five, but they have played the bottom three clubs in the league during this run as well as hopelessly out-of-form Aberdeen. The form table gives a flattering picture of where they really are, especially as they lost their only true test in this period 3-0 away against Hearts.
This is liable to be a low-scoring encounter, with St Mirren’s home matches producing an average of only two goals there is a danger of a draw in this game, but the odds on the draw-no-bet market make backing the hosts here very attractive.
Inverness v Morton
Inverness should be seen as warm favourites to come out on top in this mid-table Championship clash, with these two clubs currently on a very different trajectory.
Caley were defeated 2-0 in the Scottish Cup at home by Queen’s Park on Tuesday – though that result may well be overturned given their guests fielded an ineligible player – but prior to that, their form had been very sound indeed. Indeed, they have pieced together a four-match undefeated run, including a home draw against league-leading QP.
After a slow start to the season at the Caledonian Stadium, Inverness are becoming hard to beat at home. They have lost only one of their last seven at home in the league.
Morton, meanwhile, have hit a really difficult period of form. The Greenock side are winless in their last seven matches in all competition and have lost all of their last four, including a shock home loss against relegation-threatened Arbroath last weekend. This is a team at a low ebb currently.
There are a couple of factors counting against the hosts going into this game, which is why the draw-no-bet market should be used to take some of the risk away. Firstly, they have a poor head-to-head record against Morton this season, losing 1-0 at home and 4-0 on the road, although in that latter fixture they were beset by injury problems.
Secondly, Inverness have a tendency to draw a lot of their home matches – five of 11 this season have ended all square. Similarly, Morton tend to draw regularly on the road.
Take out the risk of a draw, though, and it’s well worth backing the hosts.
Queen of the South v Edinburgh
Queen of the South may be struggling in League One in comparison to Edinburgh, but their record against the capital club is absolutely excellent this season. This will be the fourth time these clubs have locked horns this season and Queens have invariably run out easy winners in the past.
The clubs played a September double header in league and cup, with Queens winning 4-0 and 4-1, then when they met against at Meadowbank in November, the Dumfries side came out on top 3-0.
And there are signs that Queens are starting to get things right under new manager Marvin Bartley. They made a woefully slow start to the season but have made some interesting signings in January to bolster their ranks and should be more competitive in the final third of the season. A late playoff push may well be beyond them, but it could be kickstarted with a win here.
Edinburgh, meanwhile, have lost their last three and have a terrible record against the three full-time clubs in the division. Indeed, they have lost every one of the eight fixtures they have played against Dunfermline, Falkirk and Queen of the South and only once against every other team in the league combined.
Last time out, Edinburgh picked up a couple of injury problems, including one for experienced centre-back Liam Fontaine, who will be sorely missed if he cannot play here. The signs are not good for the visitors stopping their rot.
Airdrieonians v Clyde
Airdrie have been a powerful force at home this season and that should continue against a slowly improving Clyde outfit on Saturday.
The hosts flexed their offensive muscles last weekend as they romped past Alloa 4-0, and perhaps the most impressive thing about that victory was that it could have been achieved by an even greater margin such was their dominance against a side sitting in the playoff spots at the start of play. On paper, Clyde should be far easier opponents.
This was no one off, though. Airdrie have been a powerful force at home all season. Exclude the two heavy defeats against Edinburgh, which seem anomalies, and Airdrie have played eight times, won six and scored an enormous 24 goals.
Clyde, meanwhile, come into this match still seeking their first league victory since August 19. They have not won on their travels since the opening day of the season in July.
Jim Duffy’s side are coming into this match off the back of a 1-1 draw against Dunfermline last weekend and will be bolstered by the signing of Ryan McGeever on loan from Dumbarton to strengthen their defence, but their record away from home this season is abject, with nine defeats from 11 games.
Airdrie won 5-0 when they hosted Clyde earlier this season, and even if the outcome of this match is likelier to be altogether tighter, it would be surprising if the home side did not win in a match that produced goals. The Diamonds are undefeated in nine against their guests and six of the last eight have produced more than 2.5 goals. Combine a home win and over goals to get the best odds.
Stenhousemuir v Dumbarton
League Two leaders Dumbarton face a significant test on Saturday when they travel to face an improving Stenhousemuir side – and it should prove to be a tight match.
Stevie Farrell’s visiting team are a pragmatic side. They play in a no-thrills manner that often sees them win by narrow margins, keeping a cleansheet in the process. Indeed, seven of their last eight victories have been won 1-0 or 2-0. This was the case last weekend when they edged bottom side Bonnyrigg 1-0 at home.
Stenhousemuir, meanwhile, have become more conservative under new manager Gary Naysmith. Defensively, they are much tighter than they were previously and have only conceded two goals in their last three matches. Indeed, this more circumspect approach was surprisingly evident last weekend as their home fixture against Elgin produced only two goals. Their games may have produced more goals than any other clubs’ in the league – but they are no longer playing in this manner.
Indeed, the 3-1 success Dumbarton achieved when they visited Larbert earlier in the season is unlikely to be replicated. Both clubs are playing in a tighter manner at present. Nine of the last 10 fixtures between these sides have produced more than 2.5 goals, but the odds of that run stopping in this match look healthy due to the new stance of the home team.
Dumbarton may well pinch three points, but if they do, it is likely to be by the odd goal – as has been their custom in recent months.
Forfar v Stranraer
Forfar are the form team in League Two at present, so quite why they are at a price higher than evens to beat a relatively mediocre Stranraer side is anyone’s guess. The Loons come into this game off the back of a healthy run of five wins in their last six matches, including three victories in succession, while their guests have been beaten in four of their last five, only overcoming a woeful East Fife side in that run.
Under Ray McKinnon, Forfar appear a team reborn and are moving steadily towards the playoff places. They started the campaign with one of the strongest squads in the league, and under their relatively new manager they are finally showing it.
Recent results have been particularly impressive. Since the start of the month, they have gone to Annan and Albion Rovers, a side in good form, and have picked up victories, while in between those wins they earned a 2-1 home success over league leaders Dumbarton, who were admitted down to 10 for much of the game.
Conversely, Stranraer have been poor for the last six weeks. They have lost matches against bottom side Bonnyrigg, second bottom Albion Rovers and Stenhousemuir. Last time out, they visited Stirling and were more comfortably defeated than the 1-0 scoreline would have suggested. The Blues are in no sort of form at all.
Forfar, meanwhile, dominate this rivalry, despite losing 1-0 at Stair Park in October. Prior to that, they had won six of the previous eight league meetings.
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