Huddersfield Town v Blackburn Rovers
Neil Warnock could be close to masterminding another superb managerial achievement. Having inherited a Huddersfield Town side struggling at the base of the Championship, the 74-year-old has made a major impact in the space of fewer than 10 games. Following a 3-2 win at Watford, a third consecutive victory, the Terries now sit outside of the relegation zone for the first time since mid-August, a previously unthinkable position. Huddersfield’s three successive wins are all impressive, coming against promotion and play-off chasers in the form of Millwall, Middlesbrough and Watford. A 4-2-3-1 has been most favoured by Warnock in recent games, though a clever 3-4-1-2 was deployed for the Good Friday fixture at Vicarage Road. Key to this turnaround has been the likes of defender Matty Pearson, who has three goals in his last two outings, midfielder Jonathan Hogg, attacking midfielder Jack Rudoni, and the forward pair of Josh Koroma and Danny Ward among others. Rarmani Edmonds-Green has had his versatility displayed with performances at right-back, right-wing-back, and deep midfield all in the last few weeks alone. Josh Ruffels operates on the opposite flank, the centre-back pair of Will Boyle and Michał Helik either forming the central partnership in a back four or joining Matty Pearson in a back three.
Huddersfield’s pursuit of a fourth win in a row sees them host a Blackburn Rovers side who do not feel a certainty for a play-off finish. Praise has deservedly come the way of Jon Dahl Tomasson this season for the work he has done with the Lancashire outfit, but recent results have left them in a precarious sixth-place position, especially after Good Friday’s defeat to Norwich City which leaves just a single point gap between the two of them. Tomasson’s 4-2-3-1 contains plenty of regular starters. Goalkeeper Aynsley Pears sits behind a backline of Harry Pickering, Dominic Hyam, Hayden Carter and Joe Rankin-Costello, only one of which is over the age of 24. Lewis Travis is partnered by young Liverpool loanee Tyler Morton at the base of midfield with Sammie Szmodics deployed in a key attacking role further forward. Sam Gallagher is first choice for the striker position, with the winger roles rotated between Tyrhys Dolan, Ryan Hedges, Sorba Thomas, and Ben Brereton Díaz. The latter is the clear household name in the side, Blackburn’s clear top scorer this season with 12 league goals to his name. Sam Gallagher is next on the list with seven.
Inconsistency could be what costs Blackburn Rovers a top-six finish come May. Their results list makes for odd reading with no draw until the 21st of January, which was duly followed by three further draws and then four consecutive victories. Three defeats in the last four however leave Rovers with the chasing pack on their shoulder, and the last thing they really need this Easter Monday is a trip to a revitalised Huddersfield Town who are looking to build space between themselves and the bottom three. Neil Warnock will keep his players grounded despite the buzz from the small winning run, and keeping them grounded in what could help secure yet another positive result against a top-half side.
Preston North End v Reading
Preston are motoring toward the playoffs and the slip-ups and dropped points ahead of them mean that the Lilywhites are bang in the battle for the top six.
It is an equally big game for Reading of course as the Royals dropped into the relegation zone for the first time on Good Friday. In all honesty, it is not a false position, but at the same time, across the whole of the season, their expected points tally is about six above where it is now, so the penalty is having a big impact.
The question now is whether the squad is up for the fight or whether there is an adverse reaction to them now being in a position, outside of their own control, where they desperately need points to survive.
Going to Deepdale isn’t the ideal fixture to win back those points either. Indeed, for Reading, going anywhere other than the Madejski Stadium is not ideal. Only two goals in 2023, and an xG difference of -0.8 across all of their last ten away games tells its own story for Reading.
Preston had suffered a really poor run at home halfway through the season but some good recruitment in January, principally in the form of Irish forward Tom Cannon, has really helped their effectiveness going forwards. They are five unbeaten at Deepdale now, including three wins. They dominated the xG in three of those five, against Blackpool last time they heavily lost that xG battle, but the game state would’ve been a large factor in that as they were ahead for most of the game.
The solidity of the Preston defence hasn’t really been in doubt all season and the midfield unit seems to be nicely settled at the moment with Ben Whiteman, Alan Browne, and Daniel Johnson dovetailing nicely but providing a solid platform. Alvaro Fernandez and Brad Potts are critical though for the Preston attack to work well. I don’t see Reading as having the players to compete as well in those areas and Preston are worth supporting as favourites here.
West Brom v QPR
Another play-off hopeful vs relegation candidate clash here. West Brom fell foul of a scenario similar to this on Good Friday when Rotherham turned them over at the New York Stadium, but that was ‘away from home’ West Brom, not ‘Hawthorns West Brom’.
At home, West Brom have been as impressive as almost anyone in the division. Their xG difference over the last ten is equal to 1 xG, so, taken literally, opponents are practically giving away a +1 handicap at the start. Of course, the Baggies haven’t been prolific in front of though with Karlan Grant not firing, but nine clean sheets in ten will always mean that you don’t have to score many to remain consistent in the league.
QPR are not causing a huge threat to any Championship team at the minute either. Their story of the season is well known by this stage so allow us to focus on the recent matches, which are more relevant anyway as these constitute the ones for which Gareth Ainsworth has been in charge for.
The six-game spell sees QPR producing below-average creation of chances and above averages conceding of chances. This has them sitting joint 18th in the Championship, similar to the position they are in at the moment. The major problem that Neil Crichtley and now Ainsworth are encountering is that confidence is completely shot, this was a process that started way back under Mick Beale, and those two managers have failed to turn it around.
QPR have lost their last four on the road, they are not doing much better at Loftus Road either. This has led to the team producing fewer chances and every mistake is being perceived as poor ability or lack of effort by the crowd and the public as a whole. It is really difficult, even if that is not the case, to change those perceptions and instead many teams then tend to inhabit those assumptions.
West Brom must have this circled in their calendar as a must-win. Though this then sometimes puts extra pressure on the match, it can also concentrate the mind. Back Baggies for the win here.
Luton Town v Blackpool
This is going to feel a bit like deja-vu but again the weight of evidence ahead of this match suggests that we should be backing the play-off hopeful over the relegation-threatened side.
This match is slightly different though in that both sides will be fairly confident of their fate. Luton are long odds-on to finish in the top six and, unfortunately for Tangerine followers, the same applies to their chances of escaping relegation.
Blackpool will finish their season under another new manager though as Mick McCarthy took the decision to leave the club after a poor 3-1 defeat at home to Cardiff on Good Friday. Stephen Dobbie will be in charge for this match and it is something of a baptism of fire for the Scot as Luton away is one of the toughest fixtures to prepare for.
The Hatters are a well-oiled machine at this stage. Rob Edwards has done a remarkable job of building upon Nathan Jones’ blueprint but allowing players to express their talent within that structure. The direct football is still present and correct, but there is a sprinkle of inspiration as well.
The most tricky thing that Dobbie will have to work out is how to breach the Luton backline without over-committing and leaving themselves open to attack. Luton have won their last three home matches to nil, with an xG domination of 1.7, 1.3, and 1.6 against Swansea, Bristol City, and Watford respectively.
For Blackpool, meanwhile, it has been a miserable seven defeats from seven on the road. They are averaging a -0.6 xG difference over the last ten away matches as well so these defeats are generally deserved.
At Kenilworth Road, it should be one more nail in the coffin of certainty for both of these sides’ goals. We should back Luton for another home victory.
Cheltenham Town v Ipswich Town
Ipswich Town took a huge step towards automatic promotion from the third tier on Friday with a 4-0 win over Wycombe Wanderers at Portman Road.
The Tractor Boys have climbed above Sheffield Wednesday and into the top two as a result, with the Owls’ puzzling six-game winless run continuing.
George Hirst made it four in four by netting the opener and Kieran McKenna’s side are far better positioned to handle the demanding turnaround than Cheltenham Town, due to the size of their squad.
The Robins have been in good form of late in pulling themselves away from the relegation battle, seven points clear of the drop with six games remaining is a state of affairs they would have been delighted with if offered at the start of the campaign.
McKenna was able to introduce the mouth-watering talent of Freddie Ladapo, Marcus Harness, Kayden Jackson, Kyle Edwards, and Dominic Ball from the bench on Friday, rotation will not see their level drop off as it would the hosts.
There is a clear quality gap between the two sides, and considering Ipswich’s form, nine clean sheets in a row, and eight wins on the bounce, they are a backable price to continue their blistering form at Whaddon Road.
Charlton Athletic v Burton Albion
Burton Albion pulled seven points clear of the relegation zone with an impressive 2-1 win over promotion-chasing Barnsley on Friday.
The victory may well increase the freedom that the Brewers can play with at The Valley on Monday. The reverse fixture was 3-3 at the Pirelli Stadium, though it was a match that Dino Maamria’s men had the better off and will fancy their chances of imposing themselves in South London. Lucas Ness, Corey Blackett-Taylor, and Chuks Aneke are sidelined for the remainder of the campaign as the Addicks look to respond to a 1-0 defeat at Bristol Rovers.
Charlton have kept just eight clean sheets all season and have found the net in all but three of their home league games this term. Dean Holden does have a greater license to rotate his squad and the Addicks are rightful favourites if a little too short.
19-year-old Nottingham Forest loanee Dale Taylor will be one to keep an eye on for the visitors, netting five goals in 12 League One games since arriving in January, including a late winner against the Tykes.
With players on both sides playing to earn contracts for next season there is still plenty on the line. This selection has been a winner for Burton in four of five, and four of six for the Addicks.
Sheffield Wednesday v Accrington Stanley
It is all starting to get a little bit worrying for Sheffield Wednesday, who have slipped out of the top two after a six-game winless run that no one would have expected.
The Owls went ahead but were denied all three points in a 1-1 draw at Oxford United on Friday, losing their grip on an automatic promotion spot.
Accrington Stanley re-ignited their League One survival hopes with a 3-0 win over Port Vale last time out, and there is a risk that the emotion of the victory could make it harder for them to recover effectively for the trip to Hillsborough.
George Byers and Josh Windass are still big misses for the Owls, but they have been creating chances against lowly opposition despite picking up the results of late.
They registered 2.51 expected goals (xG) from 20 shots in a 1-1 draw with Lincoln City last time out at home, having had 23 shots in a 2-2 draw at Cheltenham Town the game before that, and the visit of Accy could allow the floodgates to open.
The bank holiday weekend will see a larger crowd behind Wednesday and the home faithful have stuck behind Darren Moore in difficult moments this season.
This match is a great opportunity for them to get back on track.
Port Vale v Oxford United
Port Vale, for the most part, have had an excellent season in adjusting to the step up to League One football.
But, a run of just two wins in their last 16 league outings has them slightly looking over their shoulders with six games to play. Vale are still seven points above the bottom four and realistically one win would probably be enough to guarantee survival, but their current performance level will be worrying supporters and Darrell Clarke.
The bookmakers have been fairly hot on Vale for the majority of the season and while the market takes time to adjust to their drop-off, opportunities are presenting themselves to find value.
As we have done successfully in opposing them against Cambridge United and Accrington Stanley in the last two weeks.
Oxford United have been far more defensively solid since Liam Manning came in, picking up two crucial draws and impressively only conceding one goal in stalemates against Peterborough United and Sheffield Wednesday.
The Yellows are in a strong position to pick up their first win under Manning after three straight draws and the market are handing us some wriggle room in pricing Vale up as narrow favourites despite performing like relegation fodder in recent weeks.
Portsmouth v Morecambe
Five points off the play-off places with six games remaining, Portsmouth require near enough a perfect points return now to have any chance of crashing into the top six. There is certainly optimism growing around Fratton Park ahead of next season, the initial gamble felt from appointing rookie manager John Mousinho does appear to be winning the doubters over. Defeats to high-flying Barnsley and Sheffield Wednesday are Pompey’s only losses across their last 12 fixtures, and Portsmouth regularly see off weaker, bottom-half opponents at Fratton Park without any real fuss. Marlon Pack’s return to fitness sees him feature at the base of midfield in a 4-3-3, alongside Ryan Tunnicliffe and Tom Lowery who regularly impress. Striker Colby Bishop sits on 19 league goals this season. Only Peterborough United’s Jonson Clarke-Harris has more in League One. Blackpool loanee Owen Dale operates on the right, with Michael Jacobs recently preferred on the left wing.
It’s a long trip down south for Morecambe who are now seemingly waiting for the inevitable. Now winless in nine matches, the Shrimps are not only five points from safety but know that everyone above them has two games in hand. Add to that a final five matches against teams no lower than 14th place, and a first-ever relegation looks like a near-certainty for the third-tier underdogs. Derek Adams has not been able to strike the late-season gold of last season, his variation of system is a reflection of his inability to find a winning formula. Striker Cole Stockton scored 23 in League One last season but has just four to his name this campaign. A player the Shrimps could previously depend on has suffered a poor return, and no one else has sufficiently filled his boots. Midfielders Dan Crowley, Liam Shaw, and Jensen Weir have offered promise for their collective balance, but not to good enough effect. Young Adam Mayor is a rare positive with a breakout season on the left-hand side.
Not only do Morecambe look a team incapable of winning, but they also look a side that struggles to hold their opponents at bay. Since the turn of the year alone, the Shrimps have conceded two or more goals against Ipswich Town, Derby County, Peterborough United, Shrewsbury Town, Charlton Athletic, Barnsley, and Plymouth Argyle. Away at another top-half side, the fear for the visitors is that Portsmouth could continue that trend.
Stockport County v Newport County
Stockport County are proving to be a tough side to beat as they eye another win against Newport County on Monday afternoon.
The Hatters are still in with a shout of gaining automatic promotion to League One and are only two points off 3rd place now after their 1-0 away win at Sutton United last time out courtesy of striker Jack Stretton’s goal in the second half. That was an impressive result due to the fact the U’s don’t lose very often at Gander Green Lane and boss Dave Challinor said it was a ‘brilliant’ win for his side. On the selection front, midfielder Callum Camps sat out of the trip down to London with a shoulder injury but wasn’t missed at all with useful options in his position stepping up such as Will Collar, Ryan Croasdale, and Antoni Sarcevic. Stockport are difficult to score against and have the second-best defensive record in the division now behind table toppers Leyton Orient. In addition, they don’t lose many games and have lost just once in their last 14 outings in the league as they look to keep their momentum going with another victory to seal off the Easter Weekend in style in front of their own fans at a packed-out Edgeley Park.
Newport are no pushovers and proved that with their 3-0 triumph over Northampton Town in their last match thanks to two goals by striker Omar Bogle and Manchester United loan attacker Charlie McNeill. However, this clash against 5th-place Stockport may be a step too far for them and their performance against the Cobblers may have sapped all their energy now with little time to recover. Their manager Graham Coughlan said his players were ‘very good’ but he will be under no illusion as to how tough their upcoming encounter will be. The South Wales outfit have also been dealt a blow with centre-back James Clarke limping off injured on Friday. It remains to be seen whether the experienced defender will be back fit, with Declan Drysdale the most likely candidate to step in and he hasn’t played much football recently due to recently returning from injury himself. Newport haven’t had the best season and find themselves down in 17th place in the League Two table. They can’t go up or down now and their campaign is starting to fizzle out so there is a lot more at stake for their next opponents.
Mansfield Town v Rochdale
Mansfield Town are in decent form as they prepare to lock horns with bottom-of-the-table Rochdale.
The Stags have risen into the League Two play-offs after their impressive run of form and they beat Swindon Town 4-2 on Friday afternoon to kick-start the Easter weekend in style courtesy of goals by midfielder Stephen Quinn and Hiram Boateng and attacking pair Lucas Akins and Rhys Oates. Their boss Nigel Clough was pleased with the result and said he was ‘impressed’ with the performance and won’t want his side to slip up against 24th in the league. On the selection front, midfielder Ollie Clarke has emerged as a doubt ahead of the game after picking up a couple of whacks against the Robins but the Nottinghamshire outfit have strength in depth in his position with other options like Boateng, Quinn and Kieran Wallace. Mansfield are on fire in front of goal and have scored eight in their last two after thrashing Crawley Town 4-1 at Field Mill on 1st April. They have lost just once in their last seven league outings and that wasn’t against 2nd place Northampton Town so they are on a roll and will need to beat their next opponents to keep their push for promotion on track.
Rochdale have enjoyed a mini resurgence under caretaker boss Jim McNulty recently but it is too little, too late for the North West club as they look to claw themselves out of the bottom two. They beat Walsall 4-2 last time out with goals by forwards Ian Henderson and Danny Lloyd, young midfielder Ethan Brierley and defender Max Taylor but they remain six points from safety with just six games left. McNulty, who has stepped in for Jim Bentley after he was sacked, said it was a ‘really pleasing’ result but his players will have their work cut out against a rampant Mansfield team on Monday. The Dale don’t have any fresh injury concerns but it is worth noting that attacker Devante Rodney is only one yellow card from a suspension which would be a blow if he was to have to miss a game between now and the end of the campaign. Rochdale have won their last two matches but they do paper over the cracks of what has been a dismal season for them. They have leaked a whopping 61 goals this term and their fragile defence will be in for a tricky test against Clough’s side.
Leyton Orient v Harrogate Town
Leyton Orient are nearly promoted and should have too much quality for a Harrogate Town side still fighting against relegation at the bottom.
The O’s have been the best team in League Two by far this season and are 10 points clear at the top of the table with a game in-hand on Northampton Town below them as they look to keep their momentum going to get over the line. They won 2-0 away at 8th position Salford City on Friday afternoon after goals by midfielder George Moncur and striker Ruel Sotiriou and their boss Richie Wellens was pleased to get one over on his former club and said his players were ‘different class’. On the injury front, centre-back Dan Happe is sidelined until the end of the season but the experienced Omar Beckles and promising Brighton and Hove Albion loan man Ed Turns have formed a solid partnership at the back. Leyton Orient have the best defensive record in the division and have only let in 25 goals in their 39 games so far which has laid the foundations of their successful campaign. In addition, they haven’t lost since January in a run of fixtures spanning back 11 outings as they look to take another step closer to going up.
Harrogate are only two points above the drop zone but have played a game less than the four teams below them in the league. They drew 2-2 at home to AFC Wimbledon last time out and scored a last-gasp equaliser through midfielder Levi Sutton, with striker Luke Armstrong scoring their other one. Their manager Simon Weaver said his players played ‘better’ and he will be satisfied to have snatched a point so late on. However, the matches are coming thick and fast now and his small squad will be tested to the maximum as they prepare to make the difficult trip down to Brisbane Road next up. Southampton loan defender Kayne Ramsey remains sidelined with an injury and usual midfielder George Thomson has been playing in his position at right-back over recent times which is a weakness that Leyton Orient could look to exploit. Harrogate have endured a tough season to date and have only managed to win nine of their 39 games so far, hence why they are so low down in the table and they will struggle to get anything from their upcoming encounter.
Bradford City v Sutton United
Bradford City need a win against a Sutton United side who have seen their hopes of a late push for the play-offs all but fade away now.
The Bantams remain well in the mix in the playoffs and will be desperate to avoid slipping up in the race for promotion. They drew 0-0 away at Crawley Town last time out and their manager Mark Hughes admitted it was ‘happy’ with a point on reflection to keep their unbeaten run of form going and he will be looking to see his players pick up all three points on Monday afternoon. He will be without defender Matt Platt for the upcoming clash at Valley Parade after the former Barrow man was sent off against the Red Devils and promising January recruit Ciaran Kelly will be ready to step in for him. Bradford are unbeaten in their last nine games which has seen them rise to 6th place and they are just four points off the top three with a game in hand on the sides above them. They are proving to be a tough side to beat and have also only lost once in their last 15 so if they can find their shooting boots against their next opponents they should have enough to land the three points. Their striker Andy Cook is the top scorer in League Two at the moment on 23 goals and has Northampton Town’s Sam Hoskins and Carlisle United’s Kristian Dennis breathing down his neck.
Sutton’s campaign is petering out now and they are seven points off the top seven with games running out. They lost 1-0 at home to Stockport County in their last outing and their manager Matt Gray admitted it was a ‘tough’ one for his team. On the selection front, the U’s have welcomed back defender Coby Rowe and attacker Josh Neufville from injury but they will need more than those two to have any chance of beating a dogged Bradford outfit. The goals have significantly dried up for the London club over recent times and they have managed to find the net just twice in their last five games which has seen them slip to 10th in the table with just six fixtures left to play before the end of the season. It appears Sutton have ran out of steam now, despite making another decent account of themselves in the Football League again this term, and the fact they have only won once in their last seven suggests they are finding it difficult to pick up points at the moment. The first goal is crucial in this game and if the Bantams get it first it will be very difficult for Gray’s men to get back into it.
Altrincham v Gateshead
A fascinating encounter between two clubs whose approaches are all about playing on the front foot and creating opportunities to score.
Altrincham are now ‘on the beach’ according to the general football parlour, incapable of going up or down with five games to play, an impressive turnaround considering they failed to win any of their first nine. Gateshead are very much in the battle for survival but four wins on the bounce may have gotten them over the line, the Heed Army are now in 18th, six points clear of Torquay United.
These two sides lead the table for games in which both sides have scored, Alty seeing both teams score in 68% of all matches and Gateshead just behind with 67%. Alty have seen both sides score in 65% of their home matches and Gateshead in 68% of their away matches.
The only four games in which Phil Parkinson’s team haven’t seen both teams score in their last 13 came directly before huge FA Trophy clashes in a bid to make their first campaign as a full-time club a memorable one. Changes were made to keep things fresh ahead of the bigger games. They have scored in 17 of their 20 home matches.
If the season started on Boxing Day, Mike Williamson’s side would sit 5th in the table in terms of point-per-game. It’s unsurprising – his side have averaged 1.98xG for in that time, the best numbers in the division. They come into this game having scored 15 goals in their last five matches but they have kept just seven clean sheets this season and Alty won’t be as pitiful as the opposition they have played recently.
Maidstone United v Barnet
Once again, I’m backing against Maidstone United.
The Stones have been officially relegated and their abysmal season continues to get worse, losing each of their last seven (conceding two or more in each) and 18 of their last 21. They are still yet to pick up a victory under George Elokobi and the Southeast outfit have incredibly failed to pick up a single point against sides in the top ten of the division, conceding two or more goals in every match played against the top nine. Elokobi is also contending with defensive injuries, having only three available. And there is a lot of bad feeling at the club currently after sales of key personnel and how certain departures have been handled.
Barnet haven’t been in great form, truth be told. They have won four of their last 13, drawing three, and Dean Brennan has done a lot of chopping and changing due to injuries and a busy schedule. However, the Bees are busy up top, scoring in 19 of their last 20 matches despite having Harry Smith and Nicke Kabamba unavailable at times, and key defenders Ben Wynter and Danny Collinge have returned – Barnet haven’t conceded more than one goal in any of their last six league games. They have won five of their seven games against the current bottom four.
Scunthorpe United v Oldham Athletic
Scunthorpe United and Oldham Athletic are the warning shot for clubs heading into the National League, the former due to be relegated if they fail to win this weekend and the latter forced to make big personnel changes to avoid the same fate.
The reason I’m backing the visitors here is that the hosts are dead and buried and their team selection on Friday all but confirms that Jimmy Dean and his players know it, key loanees removed from the XI. They lost their biggest game of the season at home against Torquay United and followed it up with a pitiful display against Gateshead in which they mustered three shots at goal and conceded over 2xG. There have been off-field controversy with David Hilton announcing his plans to cut costs across the board and manager Jimmy Dean has publicly stated his frustrations with the culture at the club and the team’s recent performances.
David Unsworth has gotten over his initial struggles to guide Oldham to survival. They have won four, lost five and drawn five of their last 13, the five defeats coming against four of the top seven and at Gateshead, who are discussed above. They were comfortably the better side against Altrincham at the weekend and Unsworth has pretty much a full squad to choose from here with Alex Reid and Hallam Hope returning to the fold after injury. Their consistency in selection and approach should pay dividends against a poor Scunthorpe side now awaiting confirmation of the inevitable.
Woking v Southend United
I’m backing Woking to make it a perfect Easter Weekend and take another step closer to securing a top-three finish.
The Cards picked up a huge victory away from home on Friday, seeing off a much-improved Dorking Wanderers side. Darren Sarll’s side have won ten of their 20 home matches this season and ten of 15 against sides outside of the top six. Sarll is also able to call upon close to his strongest squad with Kacper Lopata making his full debut and key personnel James Daly and Scott Cuthbert returning. They have played seven matches against sides outside of the top seven in their last nine, winning five and not losing the xG battle in any of those matches, running at 0.61xGD.
Southend United finally got over their seven-match losing streak with back-to-back victories. However, they came against two of the three worst sides in the division at present and they weren’t entirely convincing either. Kevin Maher also lost target man Jake Hyde in just his second start since returning from injury. Woking is a completely different test and Southend haven’t performed well against sides above them in the league table, losing ten of 15 matches.
Alfreton Town v King’s Lynn Town
King’s Lynn had a dominant victory over Kettering Town at the weekend, although I suspect Alfreton will pose a bigger challenge than their previous opposition. As with every game at this stage in the season, the 3 points are vital for the Linnets – being only 2 points off the top spot. However, unlike on Friday, the home side also have huge stakes in this game. A win here would push them into much stronger playoff positions than they already are, with Scarborough, Gloucester, and Chorley all breathing heavily down their necks.
Alfreton have been on top form recently, winning 3 on the bounce and being unbeaten in 5. They’ve lost one game in the last seven and that was against the side top of the league. Matt Rhead has scored in all 3 of his last games and I have no doubts that he will cause issues here, he definitely has not shied away from the big occasions this season.
King’s Lynn will also cause huge issues for the home side, putting 4 past Kettering on Friday and scoring the most goals in the league this season. With both teams having so much to play for here, whilst both on immaculate form, I expect them both to find the back of the net. Their last fixture was a tight five-goal thriller, finishing 3-2 to King’s Lynn.
Bristol City v Middlesbrough
Bristol City really produced a surprise result for me on Good Friday. I had felt very confident in Stoke but to go to the Bet365 Stadium and be able to turn around a losing position to take the three points speaks a lot about where Nigel Pearson has his side and the relationship between coach and players.
There were six Academy players in the starting XI for Bristol City in that match, nine in the squad in total. This perhaps gives an indication as to why the spirit in the cam might be so good, but also it means that the energy levels are strong and the atmosphere in the supporter base will be one of a bit more patience. The Academy graduates are good players as well, make no mistake about that. Alex Scott may well be playing his last set of matches for the club but is top-drawer, and even the more experienced graduates like Zak Vyner and Cameron Pring are doing a great job for the cause.
Middlesbrough pretty much saw their automatic promotion dreams go up in flames at the Riverside on Friday night, but everything that saw them fly up the table in the last few months remains true. They are full of creativity and goals and it is this side of their character that I am banking on here. With nothing much left to lose, surely they remain in the top six, they may well feel free to cut loose to a certain extent.
I can see this being a fairly free-flowing encounter with chances at both ends. Previous results at Ashton Gate do not support this theory, which is why the price is more attractive. The last six Championship matches at Ashton Gate have all gone under 2.5 goals, but at the same time, eight of Boro’s last ten away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Bristol City have the talented forward players to take advantage of the chances that history suggests Boro will give up and, of course, Middlesbrough have the capacity to go over the 2.5 goal line all by themselves, as they have four times in their last seven away matches.
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