Lyngby v AC Horsens
Arguably the most interesting fixture this week in the Danish Superliga is the early Sunday kickoff between Lyngby and Horsens. Nine points divides the two teams, with Horsens being above the relegation line and Lyngby below, and the home team is forced to win to keep any chance of survival.
Lyngby have been one of the better teams this spring, and have only lost two of their seven Superliga games after the World Cup break. However, the home side have had trouble scoring with just two goals in their last three games, and this has cost them important points. Lyngby have been unable to close the games, and this is a major weakness for the team. To make things worse, they are without former Eresdivisie top scorer Alfred Finnbogason, as he’s currently injured. They do however have former Brentford defender Andreas Bjelland back, which strengthens the defense significantly.
Horsens have been one of the big disappointments this spring. They are lucky that they entered the second half of the season with a significant gap down to Lyngby and AaB, as they have dropped points left and right. In fact, Horsens have won just one of their seven games this spring, and only collected four points. Their only victory did however come last week away against Silkeborg, so they might be able to build a bit of momentum here. Nevertheless, Horsens have, just like Lyngby, struggled immensely to score goals with just six goals so far this spring.
The last two meetings between these sides have finished with less than 2.5 goals. Lyngby and Horsens have the two lowest xGs in the Superliga, and we expect a low scoring match. Odds 1.75 on under 2.5 goals at Betfair Sportsbook is great value here.
Girona v Elche
Elche are 16 points from safety at the bottom of the table and need to start picking up points urgently if they are to have any chance of salvation, but that seems unlikely as they travel up the east coast of Spain to Catalonia to take on Girona.
Girona rank seventh in LaLiga for home form this season and have not lost at Montilivi when facing a team outside the top four since August. That makes this an incredibly tough test for an Elche side who have suffered defeat in 10 of their 14 away fixtures this season.
The visitors are now working with new coach Sebastián Beccacece, but have conceded six goals and scored just one in the two games under the management of the Argentine, who arrived with no previous coaching experience in Spain. Given that Elche remain the team with the division’s worst attack (0.71 goals per 90) and worst defence (2.04 goals conceded per 90), Girona will be hoping to add to their tally of 1.5 goals scored per game, the fourth-highest in the league.
Girona coach Míchel has got his team firmly in mid-table and they even harbour some unlikely dreams of pushing for European qualification. That may be a step too far, but with the team unbeaten in three and arriving here off the back of a clean sheet and 0-0 draw against league leaders Barcelona at Camp Nou, confidence is sky high.
RB Salzburg v LASK
After a pivotal weekend in the title race, champions and league-leaders Red Bull Salzburg continue their march to yet another Austrian Bundesliga title against LASK at the Red Bull Arena. The Linz side shocked Salzburg’s main title rivals Sturm Graz in a pulsating Easter Sunday fixture, inflicting Sturm’s first away defeat of the season with Keito Nakamura’s late winner. Matthias Jaissle’s men secured a hard-earned point against Austria Vienna, therefore giving the Red Bulls even more breathing space at the top and extending their lead to four points.
LASK currently sit in third and a victory on Sunday would put them only five points behind Salzburg, however this seems unlikely. The Red Bulls are unbeaten in 10 consecutive games against LASK (eight wins and two draws), they are unbeaten in 22 league matches in a row and haven’t lost a home game in the Austrian Bundesliga in 38 matches – avoiding defeat on Sunday would match the second-longest unbeaten home streak in Bundesliga history. In short, a mountain to climb for Dietmar Kühbauer’s team. The Championship Group has always been the domain of Red Bull Salzburg to assure their domination of Austrian football and we don’t see that stopping anytime soon.
Austria Klagenfurt v Sturm Graz
Title contenders Sturm Graz make the trip to the 28 Black Arena to take on the Championship Group’s bottom club Austria Klagenfurt whilst looking to avenge their first away defeat of the season last week at LASK. Christian Ilzer’s side squandered a golden opportunity to go only one point behind leaders Red Bull Salzburg by succumbing to the Linzers for a second time in 2022/23, despite taking the lead at the Raiffeisen Arena. Despite the missed chance, the season still remains in the balance with two Sturm Graz vs. Red Bull Salzburg clashes to come.
The Carinthians have qualified for the top six for a second year in a row but have found it difficult to transition to Championship Group play losing every single home game (six in total) they’ve played at this stage of the season. Also, Austria Klagenfurt have only beaten Sturm Graz once in the club’s history, with every other fixture seeing Sturm on the winning side. Sturm Graz’s defensive solidity, only conceding 18 goals in 24 games, is currently only matched by their title-winning season of 1997-98, so with the departure of leading marksman Markus Pink the Klagenfurt side will struggle. At this stage of the season, every point matters for Sturm Graz so it’s difficult to see anything but an away win.
FC Utrecht v FC Twente
Two of the league’s ‘best of the rest’ meet here as seventh plays fifth.
Utrecht ended their run of five without a win by beating Groningen last Friday, whilst Twente swept aside Cambuur with ease in their last match. I suspect we will therefore have a good game on our hands — neither side has a great deal to play for but both look confident and have firepower to hurt the opposition.
Utrecht strikers Anastasios Douvikas (who is still chasing the Eredivisie golden boot) and experienced Bas Dost both netted in the 1-2 win. With an expectant home crowd, I’m sure the home side will put their visitors under some heavy pressure to score at least once.
Let’s not forget Twente’s wobbly away record, too, when considering the outcome of this match. What I would say here though is now that Twente have the pressure gone of trying to chase down the top three, they have been more relaxed and actually come back into form as a consequence. Vaclav Cerny was a constant menace down the right in their 4-0 win over Cambuur, and Gijs Smal provided a hat-trick of assists from left-back. Twente’s strength comes down the wide areas. I think they will also be good for at least one goal here given this, and that both attacking players Ricky van Wolfswinkel and Michel Vlap broke their own respective goal-scoring droughts last weekend.
The key battle could be won by Twente in midfield. Utrecht’s offering in this area of the pitch is a notch below the quality of Ramiz Zerrouki, who will no doubt be chasing a summer transfer if he continues his fine season.
Auxerre v Nantes
With Nantes having hit a good run of form in front of goal, both teams to score in Sunday’s clash at Stade Abbe-Deschamps against Auxerre looks like a very attractive bet.
This is a match that pits two teams on the fringes of the relegation zone against each other, but while both are relatively lowly in the table, they each come into this match in decent form. Auxerre have lost only one of their last eight in all competitions while Nantes are into the Coupe de France final for the second time in as many years in a run that has seen them lose two of seven.
Nantes’ record would be better if they were defending well. Antoine Kombouare’s side have scored in four of their last five Ligue 1 matches, netting twice in three of these games, including a 4-2 away defeat against PSG. Boasting a good array of attacking options and rested up after a busy spell in the spring, they should be well capable of finding the net in Auxerre.
AJA, it should be said, have been impressive defensively in recent weeks, keeping clean sheets in three of their last four, but two of these have been against absolutely feeble offensive teams in the form of Troyes and Ajaccio, both of whom are toiling badly at present. Their other shutout was against an out-of-sorts Rennes.
Christophe Pelissier has also tweaked his attack, which has led to Auxerre scoring in six of their last eight. Finding the net had been a major headache in the first days of his management.
With Nantes looking good going forward and not looking nearly so secure at the back – it has been seven league matches since they kept a cleansheet – expect at least one goal at both ends here.
Brest v Nice
Brest should enhance their survival prospects on Sunday when they play host to a Nice side that has got its eyes focused on European competition for the time being. Meanwhile, the home team are scrambling for any points they can get to avoid the drop.
Since Eric Roy took command of the Bretons in January, there has been a definite uptick in their performances. Many critics believed that it was a coaching change that signalled likely relegation, but he has at least managed to make his team awkward to play. Six draws from 13 league matches mean they have not made strides up the table, but their losses have come almost exclusively against teams challenging for Europe.
At home, SB29 have done especially well under Roy. Their only losses have come against a Monaco side that travels well and PSG in a 2-1 reverse that proved highly competitive. Last time out at Stade Francis-Le Ble, they were easy 3-1 winners over Toulouse, while they were robbed of a victory away in Reims last weekend by a controversial late penalty.
Nice’s thoughts, meanwhile, will be focussed on their Europa Conference League second-leg tie with Basel in midweek. Having returned from Switzerland with a 2-2 draw in a match they might have won, Les Aiglons will likely channel their focus on the return match after a five-match winless run domestically has left them off the European places.
Brest might have lost their last four against Nice – three of which were away from home, admittedly – but this is an ideal opportunity for them to break that run.
Start v Kristiansund
The two favourites for promotion meet at the Sør Arena where both teams will be searching for their first win of the season. Start drew 0-0 away to newly promoted Moss in the first match. It was a tough game on a grass pitch facing a team full of momentum after coming up this year. Start actually lost the xG battle last week 1.59 to 1.30 but the clear message coming out of that game is that there probably should have been more goals. The home team will be hoping that Jack Lahne, on loan from Amiens can find his scoring boots here. Once touted as the ‘next big talent’ from Sweden, he has failed to live up to expectation, but he should score a dozen or more goals at OBOS Level.
Kristiansund were relegated from the Eliteserien last season but kept faith with manager Christian Michelsen. They suffered a disappointing start though, losing 0-1 at home to Fredrikstad in what was a game of few chances. Kristiansund could only conjure up a measly 0.35 xG in that fixture which was very disappointing considering they were at home. Teams getting relegated into this league do have a good record of success, but have been known to start slowly, sometimes needing a few weeks to adjust. There is still plenty of quality at the club but the departures of Pemi Moumbagna Glimt and Amidou Diop to Aalesund have weakened KBK.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Start went onto win the OBOS Ligaen this season. This might be the biggest price we get on them in a home fixture all year! Key attacking midfielder Eirik Schulze missed the first match with injury but could return here. He netted 11 goals last season. With home advantage on their own artificial turf it would be a surprise if Start lost many games this year so taking them draw no bet at 1.67 looks like a good value price. Kristiansund are no mugs but offered little offensive threat last week and it could be a good time to face them.
Raufoss v KFUM Oslo
Both teams are looking for their first wins of the season here at the Nammo Stadion this weekend. Raufoss lost 0-1 last week away against newly promoted Hodd. They will probably feel like they should have drawn the game but their xGA of 0.96 certainly suggests they deserved to concede the one goal that they did. Raufoss are not expected to have a great year. They finished as low as 12th last season and had the 3rd worst home record in the OBOS Ligaen. This is a club which reportedly has the 3rd lowest budget out of any team. Raufoss have a new manager for this season Jorgen Walemark who replaces the long standing Christian Johnsen. The new manager employed a 3-4-2-1 formation last week which is a total transformation compared to the 4-3-3 they have used for several years.
KFUM Oslo have also changed their manager this season with the long standing Jorgen Isnes departing to Strømsgodset. There is no doubt that Isnes will be missed but there is a general feeling of continuity at the club because assistant manager Johannes Moesgaard has now got the top job. An incredible 26 out of 30 KFUM league matches ended with over 2.5 goals in them last season and both teams scored in 23 of their games. Last week they had a rare under 2.5 game drawing 1-1 at home to Sogndal. The xG numbers for that fixture were 0.72 vs 1.03. Moussa N’Jie will continue to be a key man for KFUM, and he already has one assist this season.
This should be an over 2.5 goal match between two teams who struggle defensively but usually hit the back of the net. At this stage of the season taking both teams to score looks like the safer bet though. In the first few rounds, teams are less inclined to take as many risks and will settle for a 1-1 draw if required rather than pushing for a winner. If this game does go over 2.5 then it’s highly likely both teams will contribute anyway because neither stand out as clean sheet candidates. Last week’s xGA data suggests that at least one goal should be conceded at either end. A 2-1 or 3-1 victory either way is likely, but the 1-1 draw can’t be ruled out.
Utsiktens v GAIS
Last season, Utsiktens finished firmly in the middle of the Superettan table with ten victories and 13 defeats in their inconsistent 30 games. This time around, though, they have already won a fifth of the games they won last year with back-to-back victories kicking off their campaign. As well as the hosts, newly-promoted GAIS will be pleased with their start to the season, having collected four points from their opening two games.
The home team come into this on the back of a 3-1 defeat of Landskrona in their most recent outing, last weekend. That followed on from a slender but impressive 1-0 win at home to Skovde on the opening day.
They blitzed their opposition, Landskrona, last weekend with three goals coming either side of a Landskrona equaliser and the half-time interval in the space of just nine minutes.
GAIS were one of the founding members of the Allsvenskan and have a proud history. However, the four-time Swedish champions have spent the majority of their recent history in the second-tier until their relegation in 2021, in the playoff against Dalkurd.
Under the management of Fredrik Holmberg, the visitors won the Ettan Sodra to gain promotion last season and they come into this one on the back of an impressive 3-0 hammering of Brage last weekend. That followed on from beginning the season with a respectable 1-1 draw away to Ostersund on the opening day.
Given the fact that both of these teams have started the season not only well in terms of results, but with good scoring performances, too, this one could be quite entertaining and at least engaging for the neutral.
AIK v Hammarby
A Stockholm derby showdown early in the campaign between two struggling teams who have both started the season shakily. AIK sit in rock bottom of Allsvenskan after two deserved losses while Hammarby struggled against champions Häcken last weekend, ending in a 3-1 battering.
Much changed at AIK in the off-season, with the sporting director being let go and no permanent appointment to date, as well as a new manager in Andreas Brännström and a host of player arrivals. There is much to still be improved on the organisational side, but on the pitch things have been dire too. A 3-5-2 system which looked exciting in pre-season has not clicked at all, partly due to missing two key players in Abubakar Keita and John Guidetti. In their absence, Jimmy Durmaz, returning to Swedish football, has had to step into a deeper midfield role, and youngster Beraki has started two consecutive matches up front. It’s safe to say neither of those solutions have worked wonders despite Durmaz having a decent opener against Halmstad, with the back three looking leaky and few quality chances being created.
The system needs both Guidetti and Viktor Fischer to be fit up front to function properly as these two work incredibly well together and compliment each other. Unfortunately, it looks like Guidetti will miss this game too through injury, so either Beraki or Omar Faraj should start next to Fischer. It could prove costly not having signed another defensively-minded midfielder, except for the much-covered Lamine Dabo transfer – a player they paid €50k for who couldn’t hold down a starting spot in the youth team of a 5th division team in Spain.
Hammarby have looked much too open defensively, leaking three goals against a ruthless Häcken, and were also there for the taking in the opener against Degerfors. Their team structure and defensive line are too open to be countered, and that is one thing AIK tend to do well in this formation. Hammarby dominated possession against a settled Häcken defence and accumulated more shots (16-11) but were beaten on xG 2.81-1.03 with most of their shots coming from outside their box. Meanwhile, their opponents had a whopping 5 big chances, slicing through Hammarby at will after winning the ball back. While AIK are nowhere near as lethal as Häcken, the match could play out in a similar manner here.
In a feisty derby with two teams struggling defensively, we should see a slugfest and a good few goals to boost.
Cambuur v Feyenoord
Feyenoord just show no signs of stopping! Albeit they lost their Dutch Cup semi-final to Ajax not too long ago, but they seem to be growing even further as a team rather than running out of steam in a long, long season. Beating RKC 5-1 last weekend was an impressive win, and that was followed up by a below-par — yet well-deserved — 1-0 win over Roma in their Europa League quarter-final first leg on Thursday.
Arne Slot is known for rotating his players and making lots of substitutions in games. No doubt this is why his side can continue to compete so deep into the season (unlike AZ Alkmaar who are suffering the opposite problem).
All this to me suggests another win full of goals. Cambuur have now lost hope in their battle against relegation. They have lost their last four fixtures, with two of those against direct rivals in the table above them — sending them further into the mire.
Cambuur do have some good attacking players for their league standing, who will no doubt get moves elsewhere in the summer should they go down. The problem was that these players arrived as new signings at the end of January, and their defence seems to have become a lot more leaky since then, arguably because they are going for the three points under new boss Sjors Ultee, who is known for his win or bust approach.
Feyenoord will capitalise on Cambuur’s weaknesses out wide (particularly their weak full-backs). Over 2.5 goals is a cautious prediction as I think Feyenoord will fill their boots and Cambuur have the ability to score one or two in reply.
Rapid Vienna v Austria Vienna
Only a month after the last edition, the standout fixture in the Austrian footballer calendar is set to return on Sunday when Rapid and Austria meet for the 339th Vienna derby – the third most-played city derby in Europe behind Glasgow and Edinburgh. The mood is good at fourth-placed Rapid, who could end their 15-year trophy drought in the Austrian Cup final in a fortnight. A point and a place behind them are Austria, who are three games unbeaten and came within a whisker of inflicting a first home league defeat on Salzburg since December 2020 last weekend.
The Green & Whites, who beat Klagenfurt 3-1 last time out, do not have any personnel concerns but will be without the three long-term injury absentees of centre-back Maxi Hofmann, right-back Martin Koscelnik and goalie Paul Gartler. Austria Vienna will be without the increasingly important defensive duo of Doron Leidner and Lucas Galvao, who are carrying ankle and muscle injuries respectively. Key players on both sides – Rapid forward Guido Burgstaller and Austria midfielder Matthias Braunöder – are one booking away from suspension.
Matches between the Green & Whites and the Violets tend to be closely contested encounters: six of their nine meetings at the Allianz Stadion since the stadium was reopened in 2016 have ended in draws, while seven of the last nine derbies at either ground have ended in stalemate. Those draws often tend to be low-scoring affairs too, with six derbies in a row ending either 1-1 or 0-0. We’re therefore anticipating another game of few goals at the weekend.
Molde v Rosenborg
The defending champions Molde got off to a losing start in week one losing away to Tromsø 0-1. MFK had won 17 consecutive Eliteserien fixtures heading into that contest but a combination of bad finishing and brilliant goalkeeping denied them. Truth be told though; Molde completely dominated that fixture. They had a massive xG of 3.13 and 9 times out of 10 would have left the Arctic Circle with all 3 points. If they play like that again then they’ll have no problems getting their first victory of the season. There is far too much offensive firepower in this team with the likes of Veton Berisha, Magnus Wolff Eikrem and Ola Brynhildsen.
Rosenborg won 1-0 against Viking last weekend but it was a fortunate success. They massively rode their luck in the first half and Viking should have opened the scoring. Rosenborg were outgunned 0.30 to 2.04 on xG yet somehow managed to prevail. It goes without saying those sorts of metrics are unsustainable if you want to regularly obtain points. Rosenborg will be delighted with the win but this will be a difficult trip to a ground they have struggled at in recent years. In fact, RBK have lost in 9 of their last 11 trips to the Aker Stadium. Molde always raise their game to face one of their biggest rivals.
The home team can backed at 1.50 to win and this looks a good enough price. There is quite a significant difference in quality. Molde will be challenging for the title and Rosenborg are not at that level yet. Based on last week’s performance rather than results, a Molde victory looks very likely.
Odd v Brann
There was a lot of hype surrounding Brann heading into this season. The record breaking OBOS Ligen points setters from last year totally lived up to their billing in week one though by easily beating Haugesund 3-0. It could and probably should have been by a bigger margin. They outgunned their opponents 2.48 to 0.86 on xG numbers. Striker Bard Finne looked in great touch as he scored twice and looked like a constant menace. We must not forget that Brann only beat Haugesund who are expected to struggle. But considering all the expectations on their shoulders they must be commended for such a dominating performance.
Odd drew 0-0 away to Stabaek. They were lucky though because their opponents racked up an impressive 2.13 xG. They were indebted to star goalkeeper Leopold Wahlstedt who is known for making key reflex saves and is probably the most important Odd player. He might not be enough to repel this Brann machine though. Odd looked quite toothless last weekend and didn’t create many opportunities. They will prefer being at home on an artificial pitch because last week’s venue in Stabaek was a horrible grass pitch. Odd will take some comfort that Brann #1 keeper Mathias Dyngeland is ruled out injured. Backup Holmen Johansen will start instead.
Brann should win the game but did give up a few chances last week and could be slightly vulnerable with a backup keeper. They are 1.70 favourites to prevail, but a safer option is probably to take the away side to score over 1.5 goals. The exact 0-1 scoreline is unlikely here. If Brann are to win the game the likelihood is they will score two or more goals anyway. Over 1.5 Brann goals is at a similar price of 1.67 and they have more than enough firepower required to hit the back of the net twice.
Halmstad v Djurgardens
Halmstad were impressive in their return to the top tier, beating a lacklustre AIK by two goals to one in the first round. Last weekend, Degerfors put in a powerful performance to outgun them 3-1, showing Halmstad have some way to go to solidify their top-flight status. While a win against AIK was a nice surprise, they need to take points off their relegation rivals to survive. Their home form will be paramount too, however against title contenders like Djurgården not much can be expected.
Halmstad have a nice blend of rugged experience and youthful exuberance, providing both some cynicism and flair to their ranks. Kazper Karlsson, the 18 year old wonderkid, was marvellous against AIK, but unfortunately missed last weekend’s game due to illness. It remains to be seen if he makes it here – if he doesn’t, he will be a big miss again for Halmstad. Academy product Erik Ahlstrand has also been a standout performer, with a goal and an assist to his name already. There are questions about the defence however and whether Andreas Johansson can still cut it at 41 years old.
Djurgården’s pre-season was shaky, but the team has looked more cohesive during the start of the league campaign, although not everything is rosy. A solid 3-1 victory over Brommapojkarna in the first round was followed by a goalless draw with Sirus, with star goalkeeper Widell Zetterström given a red card after a mistimed sweeping action early in the second half. You could argue there were covering defenders, but the referee had the right to send off the DIF keeper. In addition, he suffered a hand injury requiring surgery and will therefore be out indefinitely, certainly a big miss for the title aspirants. It remains to be seen if the untested Andre Picornell or seasoned veteran Tommi Vaiho gets the nod, with the former being brought on last weekend. Even before the sending off, however, Djurgården struggled to control the match and create anything of note, which should be a concern.
Going away to a newly promoted side is never easy but the attacking firepower in this DIF team should be enough to overcome a resilient Halmstad XI.
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