The Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán is a special place on European nights and the fact that this tie is level ahead of Sevilla’s home leg has many picking the Spanish side to go through. However, United shouldn’t be fazed after already playing three times in Spain this season, winning 1-0 at Real Sociedad and at Real Betis, as well as drawing 2-2 at the Camp Nou against Barcelona.

Even though this tie is finely balanced, the underlying numbers of the first leg shouldn’t be ignored. United’s xG on the night was 1.80 compared to Sevilla’s 0.64, and everyone who watched the game knows that the Spanish side didn’t concede more and managed to score two thanks to some huge slices of luck.

Although José Luis Mendilibar has made Sevilla better over his four games in charge so far – two wins and two draws – this is still a far poorer Sevilla side than those that won the six Europa League trophies that sit in the Sánchez-Pizjuán museum. Plus, last week’s first leg was Mendilibar’s first ever European game of his career and you could tell, as Erik ten Hag’s men picked his side apart for the first 80 minutes.

This is why United should still be considered the favourites to progress. Missing the suspended Bruno Fernandes is obviously a blow, as are the injuries to Lisandro Martínez and Raphaël Varane and others, but United have good squad depth and should get the job done, whether in 90 minutes or beyond.

While Manchester United should still be considered the favourites at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, one thing Sevilla playing at home does mean is that they’ll have to be bolder in attack than they were in the first leg. The fans simply won’t stand for such a conservative approach, so Los Nervionenses will send men forward in attack and we can expect an open game.

That makes a bet on both teams to score an interesting one. Sevilla have scored at least one goal in 14 of their past 15 home matches and will feel confident of getting on the scoresheet in this home leg, especially with forwards Lucas Ocampos and Youssef En-Nesyri in good form.

But, United should find a way through a leaky Sevilla defence (conceding 1.39 goals per game in 2022/23) as well and get at least one goal of their own. Of their last 15 away games, Ten Hag’s side have found the net in 13 of them.

Since returning to Sevilla in the January transfer window after a torrid start to the season at Ajax, Lucas Ocampos has become a key part of the Spanish side’s attacking set-up and even more so under new coach Mendilibar.

For Sevilla this season he has averaged 1.54 shots per 90, with 0.54 shots on target, but those numbers have skyrocketed in recent weeks since the appointment of his new coach in the international break, and since then he has averaged 0.94 shots on target per 90.

With goals in two of his last five starts for Sevilla, Ocampos is looking fit and in form. Given how much Tyrell Malacia struggled in the first leg and the knee injury he could be carrying, the Dutch youngster could fail to control Ocampos down the right. If Malacia is not selected, it could put him in a back line which is already full of changes and mean a return to action for Luke Shaw, himself recovering from injury. It’s a prospect that would have Ocampos licking his lips.

Even with home advantage, Sevilla will still have their work cut out to avoid ending up in the referee’s notebook. The first leg saw them pick up five cards, compared to Manchester United’s three, and logic would suggest that they may play a more open game at home which will leave their defence vulnerable to committing even more fouls.

With 108 cards in LaLiga this season, no team has seen more than the 97 yellow cards and 11 red cards that the Andalusians have picked up in 2022/23. They also rank highly in the Europa League, where they have 1.8 cards per 90, compared to Manchester United’s 1.36.

Portuguese referee Artur Soares Dias is not one to hold back with his cards and has shown eight cards in each of his last three matches, averaging 5.52 cards per 90 this season. With 2.5 cards for Sevilla per 90 in his previous matches in charge of the Spanish side, he has only shown more yellow cards per 90 to Barcelona of the seven Spanish sides that he has refereed.

Ten Hag has also heaped attention onto the referee after claiming that he was forced to withdraw Antony and Bruno Fernandes after they were shown yellow cards in the first leg. That means that Sevilla could be in for a tough tie in many senses come Thursday night.