Sevilla v Manchester United
After the four goals of the first leg were evenly split in the 2-2 draw at Old Trafford, even if all four were hit against the net by Manchester United players, this second leg should be an even more balanced and open game. Sevilla will be forced to play a more attacking brand of football than that of the first leg, as the home fans at the boisterous Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán won’t stand for anything less, and this makes Sevilla more likely to find the back of the net without needing the luck of own goals. At the same time, this should leave even more space in behind for the likes of Antony and Anthony Martial.
Even though Sevilla have had their struggles across the 2022/23 campaign, scoring goals hasn’t been an issue, especially not at home. In their past 15 home fixtures across all competitions, they’ve netted at least once in 14 of them. Under new coach José Luis Mendilibar, they’ve scored exactly two goals in each of his four matches so far, so we should expect Los Nervionenses to get the better of David de Gea at least once on Thursday night, especially if going up a depleted – due to injuries – United back line.
But, even without injuries, Sevilla’s own defence is porous. They’ve been conceding 1.39 goals per game this season and really struggled to cope with the dynamism of United’s attack in the first leg. Considering that United have netted in 13 of their past 15 away games – including their previous three visits to Spain to take on Real Sociedad, Barcelona and Real Betis – we can also expect an away goal at some stage in this second leg.
Sporting v Juventus
Sporting stumbled to a 1-1 draw at home against fifth-placed Arouca at the weekend, with Antony opening the scoring and Pedro Gonçalves having a penalty saved before the break, before converting from the spot in the 87th minute to secure a draw, moving seven points away from Braga in third place. With Braga pulling away in the race for the final Champions League spot, it seems that Sporting’s most likely avenue of earning access to Europe’s premier competition lies in winning the Europa League. But first, they’ve got to overturn a one-goal deficit against Juventus in the Portuguese capital.
Both of these teams enter Thursday’s match on the back of a few low-scoring matches: Sporting drew 1-1 to Arsenal before winning on penalties to secure progression to the quarterfinals, before thrashing Santa Clara 3-0 – the worst team in the league at the moment – and drawing 0-0 at Gil Vicente and beating Casa Pia 4-3 via a Francisco Trincão hat-trick before losing 1-0 to Juventus via a goal from Federico Gatti. Juve, meanwhile, opened March with a 1-0 loss to Roma, a 1-0 win against Freiburg, a 4-2 victory against Sampdoria, beating Freiburg 2-0 and edging Inter and Hellas Verona 1-0 before drawing 1-1 to Inter, losing 2-1 to Lazio before beating Sporting and falling to a 1-0 defeat to Sassuolo.
I’m expecting Max Allegri’s side to come out with a trademark disciplined approach defensively, and I’m expecting a shortage of goals at the Estádio José Alvalade. Sporting had 12 shots against Gil, 15 against Juventus and 26 against Arouca, but they’ve struggled to convert these into goals due in large part to injuries, with starting center forward Paulinho and rapid center back Jeremiah St. Juste likely to miss the rest of the season, as well as an inability to break down deep blocks following the departure of Pedro Porro in January to Tottenham, with the Spanish defender providing speed, creativity and efficiency in the final third. Ricardo Esgaio and January recruit Héctor Bellerín have struggled to fill his void, and as a result, Sporting’s attacking threat has dried up. Teenager Youssef Chermiti has looked a bit clunky technically and unable to provide the same hold-up play as Paulinho, whilst Marcus Edwards has struggled for form as of late. Juventus’ back three should be able to keep a vigilant eye on Sporting’s attackers and prevent them from creating danger, and it could result in a low-scoring affair in Lisbon.
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