Paddy Power has set the odds for Dara O’Shea committing fouls at 1.73 for 1+ fouls and 4.5 for 2+ fouls. These numbers appear to be somewhat elevated when compared to odds of 1.36 and 2.75, respectively, on Sky. There is no guarantee these prices will remain the same come kick off, so you may need to act fast.

Dara O’Shea’s foul statistics from his time at West Brom provide some valuable insight. Over the past three seasons, his average fouls per game have shown a consistent pattern:

2020/21: 1.09 fouls per game (3 yellow cards)
2021/22: 1.03 fouls per game (2 yellow cards)
2022/23: 0.73 fouls per game (7 yellow cards)

(Dara O’Shea’s foul statistics at WBA – Source: FBRef) 

These figures indicate that O’Shea has maintained a relatively steady fouling rate over the years, suggesting a certain level of consistency in his playing style. This trend could play a crucial role in our assessment of the upcoming bet.

Looking ahead, the context of the match becomes significant. O’Shea is slated to face off against Erling Haaland, a prominent player known for his ability to draw fouls. A key observation here is Haaland’s heat map from the previous season, which reveals his tendency to drift toward the right center-back (RCB) position. Remarkably, O’Shea has consistently assumed the RCB role during friendly matches for Burnley in the pre-season.

(Erling Haaland heat map from 2022/23 season – Source: SofaScore)

Drawing from historical data, we can also gauge Haaland’s performance in terms of fouls won. Recent statistics show that Haaland has won at least one foul in four out of his last five matches, and he has secured two or more fouls in three of those five games. This suggests that Haaland’s physical playing style often prompts opposition players to commit fouls, providing O’Shea with ample opportunities to engage physically and potentially earn fouls in the upcoming match.

It’s worth noting that defenders have commonly attempted to agitate and frustrate Haaland on the field, and his well-known encounters with defenders like Ben Godfrey underscore this fact. O’Shea, however, appears to be no stranger to physical play, having previously participated in Gaelic football—a sport known for its robust nature. His familiarity with rough-and-tumble scenarios could potentially give him an edge in dealing with the challenges posed by Haaland.

this is why i watch football pic.twitter.com/boI0fQFOZa

— eimear (@8WDCS) December 31, 2022

It’s no doubt that Burnley will be well up for this game, and may even force a result. However, given City’s attacking prowess, and the sheer amount of defending he’ll have to do, backing him for fouls looks a smart selection.