Italy v Spain Semi Final Preview
The semi-finals are now upon us and what a fixture we have in store for us at Wembley on Tuesday night as two of the most successful European teams of all time go head to head. The Azzurri look in fearsome form, making in 15 wins in a row and 32 games unbeaten by dispatching the world’s top-ranked team Belgium in Munich. Spain appeared to have found their scoring touch in previous games against Slovakia and Croatia but were back to their toothless best as they scrapped past Switzerland on penalties. Denmark or England awaits in the final next weekend and both of these sides will fancy their chances of getting their hands of the European Championship trophy.
Italy at Euro 2020
No doubt Italy have looked mightily impressive this summer and for me are the biggest threat to England should the three lions make it to the final on Sunday. Mancini has his side playing an intense, high-pressing style which has truly worked wonders for them. Against the Belgians Italy were much the better side, pinning the Belgians back for much of what in the end was a deserved victory. For me they have looked the most imposing side this summer and are certainly going to take some beating.
Italy will be without Leonardo Spinazzola after the wide player was stretchered off against Belgium and it has since been revealed he has suffered a serious Achilles injury. His absence will be a huge loss for the Italians with the flying Roma fullback one of the outstanding players of the tournament. Otherwise they are tipped to be at full strength with the imperious Giorgio Chiellini and Leanardo Bonnuci tipped to start at the heart of the defence once more. Despite their advancing years they showed the world once more how good they can be against the Belgians.
Italy Predicted Line-up vs. Spain: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bonucci, Chiellini, Emerson; Jorginho, Barella, Varratti; Chiesa, Insigne, Immobile (4-3-3)
Spain at Euro 2020
The Spanish seem to blow hot and cold and they once more needed extra-time to see off the Swiss in the quarter-finals. They have actually only won in 90 minutes once this tournament which must be a concern for Luis Enrique and fatigue for his players could become a real concern now we have reached the business end of the competition. What can’t be questioned is the Spanish’ ability to create chances on a regular basis and you can’t help but feel if they had a world class striker they could well be favourites to lift the trophy this summer. They have accumulated 18 goals in the expected goals metric (xG) but scored just 12 in comparison which shows quite clearly where the problems exist. Moreno and Morata are just not good at this level and ultimately I feel it could cost them against the Italians.
As for the Spanish there are slight question marks over the fitness of Pablo Sarabia after the PSG midfielder was replaced at HT in the win over the Swiss. Other than that it appears Luis Enrique has a full squad to select from in this one.
Spain Predicted Line-up vs. Italy: Simon; Azpilicueta, Pau Torres, Laporte, Alba; Busquetes, Pedri, Koke; Ferran Torres, Olmo, Morata (4-3-3)
Italy v Spain Betting Tips & Predictions
Beyond being tidy in possession, they press relentlessly and have bundles of energy that few players in Europe could match. Spain will need to be at their best if they are to nullify and overcome Italy’s midfield. I personally can’t see the Spanish being able to deal with the intensity and drive of the Italians who will look to suffocate the Spanish in possession and not allow them to get in to their passing rhythm. The Spanish will still manage to create chances as they always do and certainly fancy them to score in what should be an entertaining affair at Wembley. I fancy the Italians to win 2-1 here as they did in the quarter-finals which I predicted correctly in my quarter-final preview.
🏁
Italy to Win 2-1 @ 9.5 at Paddy Power
As for a goalscorer it is difficult to look past Lorenzo Insigne who has undoubtedly been one of the very best players at Euro 2020, and his goal against Belgium again showed just how dangerous he can be. Coming in off the left, there’s not much that can be done to stop him – as was the case with Arjen Robben on the opposite side during his peak years. He already has 2 goals to his name this tournament and at a generous price of 4.0 looks a decent price to score anytime in this one.
⚽️
Lorenzo Insigne to score anytime @ 4.0 at Paddy Power
Italy v Spain Euro 2020 Bet Builder Tips
As always it may be wise to wait for lineups to ensure the players you select for the bet builder are starting. Should my predicted 11’s be accurate then here are my favourite Bet Builder tips for the game this evening.
Marco Verratti to be booked
Yellow cards have now been refreshed meaning the risk of suspension has now been lifted for the players and they go in to the semi-final stage with a clean slate. This will only encourage players to pick up yellow cards with them knowing that they won’t miss the final from suspension.
A player sticks out for is the supremely talented by tenacious Marco Verrati. He has picked up 120+ career yellow cards to date despite being just 28. Although now vastly experienced, his temperament remains a concern and his prone to a headloss as he has shown on multiple occasions already this tournament and more notably in the champions’ league semi-final defeat to Manchester City. He will be responsible of keeping tabs on an exceptional Spanish midfield who like to dominate the ball and I feel he looks a prime candidate to pick up a card here. A price of 3.25 seems very fair for a player so renowned for picking up bookings.
🟨
Marco Verratti to be Booked v Spain @ 3.25 at Paddy Power
Nicolo Barella 1+ Shot on Target
He may not be the most obvious of choices but there is no ignoring the value that exists for a shot on target for Nicolo Barella in this one. The Inter Milan midfielder who of course scored in the quarter-final over Belgium with a lovely solo effort is priced at a mammoth 4.5 for a shot on target this evening. For context, this is a longer price than centre back duo Chiellini and Bonucci and given the form and confidence he goes in to this game in following his goal I feel this is a very generous price.
🥅
Nicolo Barella to have 1+ Shot on Target v Spain @ 4.5 at Paddy Power
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
How to watch Italy v Spain in Euro 2020
📅 When is Italy v Spain? / Tuesday, 6 July 2021, 20:00 BST
🏟 Where is Italy v Spain taking place? / Wembley Stadium (London)
📺 What TV Channel is Italy v Spain on? / BBC One, ZDF
📱 Online Live Streaming for Italy v Spain / bet365
