Cray Valley PM v Charlton

We head to The Artic Stadium for this midweek’s best bets as Cray Valley Paper Mills play host to Charlton Athletic in an FA Cup First Round replay. The teams are separated by just four miles but five divisions in the pyramid, and yet, Cray Valley matched the Addicks to draw 1-1 at The Valley on Sunday 5th November.

A Lucas Ness own goal cancelled out Scott Fraser’s opener to see the Millers secure a famous replay against the 1947 FA Cup winners, and Charlton will arrive at The Artic Stadium, which has a capacity of 1,000, with a lot to lose against part-time opposition.

Cray Valley are ninth in the Isthmian League South East Division, one of English football’s eighth tiers, but have only played six league games due to their FA Cup run. Wednesday’s match will be the Millers’ tenth in the FA Cup this term, a run that started in mid-August when they drew 1-1 away at Lordswood of the Southern Counties East League Premier Division.

The scoreline showed there was very little between the two teams in the clash in SE7 and the second edition of this Greenwich derby could produce one of the more memorable upsets in the competition’s recent history.

We’ve taken a look at a variety of betting angles in considering our Cray Valley PM v Charlton best bets.

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⚽ Goals stats: Charlton good value at both ends

The Addicks have been leaky at the back and very dangerous going forward since the beginning of last season. This has resulted in some entertaining encounters but an absence of sustained progress in terms of their results.

They have scored in 17 of 20 matches in all competitions this season, with the exact same statistic applicable to the number of times they have conceded, with just three clean sheets so far. Charlton won the shot count 25-8, the xG battle 3.16-0.45 and allowed only one shot on target in the first round tie with Cray Valley. Paddy Power have them as short as 1.17 to win the game, while that is a very short price that is not worth backing, it is easy to see why they are so heavily favoured.

The Millers have scored in 21 of 22 games in all competitions this season, which includes the FA Trophy and Kent Senior Cup, but they are unlikely to be able to rely on an own goal to get them on the scoresheet again v Charlton. Familiarity should help the hosts, the Addicks have players who have never played a competitive fixture at a venue of this capacity, and Paddy Power are favouring the Millers to find the net with both teams to score priced at 1.73.

Predictions:

👑 Charlton (-1 Handicap) @ 1.67

⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.40

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🥅 Goalscorer stats: Visitors aim to quash underdog spirit

Michael Appleton took some flack after the 1-1 draw with Cray Valley and will be looking to right the wrongs of that performance here. The Addicks’ next League One outing is not for ten days after this fixture, therefore they can afford to field a stronger side than the heavily rotated one that failed to get the job done in the last meeting.

“Make sure we do the talking on the pitch.”
“It’s an opportunity to answer a few questions.”

Michael Appleton

Miles Leaburn has not scored in his last five Charlton appearances and it seems more likely that Alfie May’s legs are saved if the scoreline is comfortable than the 19-year-old striker’s. Leaburn came on for the last 16 minutes of the first-round clash and managed three shots, two on target, to an xG value of 0.31. The physical number nine should see plenty of the ball in dangerous areas if he starts this one. Leaburn is attracting interest from higher places and is backable at 15.0 to score a hat-trick in front of the cameras as the January transfer window approaches.

Kyrell Lisbie can be backed at 5.0 in the Anytime Goalscorer market to find the net for the hosts. The 19-year-old is the Millers’ top scorer this season with 15 already, and it was his cross that went in off of Ness at The Valley. His father, Kevin Lisbie, came through the academy at Charlton and was a big part of the Addicks’ golden era in the Premier League from 2000-2007.

With over 2.5 goals as short as 1.40, there are some very enticing darts to be thrown in the goalscorer market, and Lisbie to complete an FA Cup fairytale could be one of those.

Scott Fraser scored nine goals in League One last season, netted the opener against Cray Valley less than a fortnight ago and will be fresh from a substitute appearance in Charlton’s 2-2 draw at league leaders Portsmouth on Saturday. The classy attacking midfielder has the intelligence and patience to play a key role in breaking down the Cray Valley resistance, as he did in their previous meeting. The Scotsman can be backed at 3.30 to score anytime and he is also dangerous from free kicks.

Nathan Asiimwe has registered 0.38 xG from nine shots in all competitions this season. The 18-year-old was amongst the goals in an attacking wing-back role in pre-season, when Dean Holden was at the helm but could thrive with greater open spaces available to him against Cray Valley. His physical frame allows him to be a threat from set pieces as well and he can be backed to score at anytime at 9.50.

Another longer-shot option is Lloyd Jones to find the net for Charlton. The centre-back has hit the target from four of his six shots in League One this season and has accumulated 0.66 xG, without opening his account for the club. Jones is more likely to start this one, where he did not in the first round, due to Michael Hector’s call-up to the Jamaica national team. Jones is an enticing 13.0 to score, he could be heavily involved if Charlton forces many set-piece opportunities.

Predictions:

🥅 Miles Leaburn anytime @ 1.67

🥅 Scott Fraser anytime @ 3.30

🥅 Nathan Asiimwe anytime @ 9.50

🥅 Lloyd Jones anytime @ 13.0

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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