In this article…
Blackpool v Nottingham Forest
📅
Kick off: Wednesday 17th January at 19:45
🏆
Competition: FA Cup
📺
Watch Live: ITV4
Here at Andy’s Bet Club, we’re all over the FA Cup Third Round Replays with the site featuring FA Cup bet builders and some FA Cup acca tips. It’s not just the FA Cup though, with a variety of expert football tips & predictions from across Europe and beyond available.
To increase your punting potential this week you should check out the various free bet offers and all of the latest bookmaker accounts for 2024 with the best bet builder sites, that way you know you’re getting the best value for money.
One of the best results of the 3rd Round was League One Blackpool going to Premier League Nottingham Forest and getting a draw. Neil Critchley’s side will somehow have left the game quite disappointed though, as they had a two-goal lead in the first half and let that slip.
However, there is no reason to believe that Blackpool can’t at the very least put up a good fight in the replay. Looking into the recent history of third tier sides who have earned a replay with top-tier opposition gives us some interesting information.
There were no replays in a couple of recent seasons due to condensed calendars, but in the last decade, there have been exactly four ties between League One and Premier League teams that have gone to replays where the third tier side hosted the replay. The League One teams are actually undefeated in those matches over 90 minutes, Oxford and Peterborough ended up losing their ties having held the Premier League side. Tranmere won after extra time, but Wigan thrashed Bournemouth.
2020 Tranmere 2-1 Watford (aet)
2020 Oxford 2-3 Newcastle (aet)
2018 Wigan 3-0 Bournemouth
2016 Peterborough 1-1 (p) West Brom (aet)
This is proof, if it were required, that Forest will not be in for an easy ride at the seaside unless they visit the donkeys whilst in Blackpool. The Premier League side have enjoyed a little break between the two matches, so it remains to be seen what effect that might have on them.
There is some really interesting information surrounding both teams and their performances so far this season. We have been able to compile the best bits to recommend some bet builder picks for the match.
Blackpool v Nottingham Forest Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
🔥 The last five email Gem Bets have won and would have rolled £10 into £446. Get the next for free, sign up here
There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets, and we encourage you to find your own formula to pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.
⚽️ Match stats: Blackpool very strong at home by League One standards
There is no League One team that is as strong at home as Blackpool. They are absolutely flying at Bloomfield Road, currently sitting top of the home table, and on an incredible run of form. Their last few home games read: 2-0, 2-1, 2-0, 3-1, 3-0, 3-0, 2-1 going back to a 2-1 defeat to Northampton in November, but even prior to that defeat they had 4-0, 3-2, 3-0 and 4-1 home wins in the bag in League One.
Blackpool are 4th in League One for xG created, albeit they are only 12th for shots on target. Their defensive work is good, but not outstanding, sitting 9th in the league for xG against, though they do have ten clean sheets in the league, the joint-third highest tally for shut-outs.
Forest are under new management in recent weeks so their seasonal data should be taken with a slight nod to that. Nuno Espirito Santo is a pragmatic manager, he is capable of putting together some good attacking play but is more at home organising a defensive structure and utilising the space in the opponents’ half, when it is there.
However, it is worth mentioning that Forest have a relegation level of attack in the Premier League so far this season, but their defence has looked relatively solid, performing at a mid table level.
Blackpool may well be tempted into that trap when they are playing at home as they feel so confident. Forest dominated the shot count and territory in the first match, that probably won’t be as lop-sided as it will be here, there should be good chances for both sides as they can play their natural games.
Predictions:
⚽ Blackpool double chance @ 1.87
⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.57
🎯 Shooting stats: Jordan Rhodes enjoying his work for Blackpool this season
Jordan Rhodes may feel to many like he has been around for a very long time, but he is having an Indian summer at Blackpool this season. Rhodes is well in the battle for League One’s top goalscorer with 15 league goals already and he is averaging over 3 shots per match.
It will be more difficult for Rhodes to get shots off against Forest, but he still is the most likely player to be on the end of Blackpool build-up and he is worth adding to a bet builder selection, especially at home.
We are looking outside of the obvious for the Reds. Morgan Gibbs-White may be the key threat for the Premier League side, but the prices are much better for a couple of his team-mates to get involved.
Nicolas Dominguez has made a good impression since arriving at Forest and scored an important header in the original tie. Indeed, he has popped up with a few crucial goals and is a threat from anywhere around the edge of the box, he looks much better value for this game.
Ryan Yates is the other Forest player worth a bet. The midfielder is always a threat from set pieces as well as in open play and whilst his shooting numbers this season are the lowest of his career, when he played EFL football his shooting numbers were much higher, which could be more relevant for this match.
Predictions:
⚽ Jordan Rhodes to have 2+ shots @ 1.44
⚽ Nicolas Dominguez to have 2+ shots @ 1.73
⚽ Ryan Yates to have 2+ shots @ 1.73
🛑 Fouls stats: Gibbs-White threat to create chaos in Tangerines’ defence
There is some real value in the fouls markets for this match.
Gibbs-White is likely to be selected to be the main man to take the game to Blackpool. He is always a target for opposition defences as well though, he is Forest’s most fouled player this season so far and was a constant thorn in the side of Blackpool in the original tie as well, scoring a great goal to equalise at the City Ground.
Callum Connolly committed three fouls in the original tie and has Blackpool’s highest foul rate of the season so far. He is certainly one of the players who will be tasked with shutting Gibbs-White down, but he will also likely have battles with Dominguez and potentially the overlapping left back, potentially Harry Toffolo.
Jordan Rhodes is also worth a mention in this market. His harrying and closing down of players, as well as the way he uses his body in duels invariably leads to fouls being given against him, he leads Blackpool’s foul count by quite a distance at well over a foul per game (42 in 22).
Predictions:
⚽ Morgan Gibbs-White to be fouled 2+ times @ 1.67
⚽ Morgan Gibbs-White to be fouled 3+ times @ 3.0
⚽ Callum Connolly to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.20
⚽ Jordan Rhodes to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.40
🟨 Cards stats: Midfield battlers in danger of cautions
Oliver Norburn has a good chance of picking up a card here. This is all or nothing now for Blackpool and bodies will be put on the line in the midfield battle.
Norburn has five yellows to his name already this season in 17 full matches, and has a decent foul count as well to show that it isn’t just a flash in the pan.
His teammate Callum Connolly may also be a good selection in the cards market. We have picked him out in the fouls market but with the idea of Morgan Gibbs-White operating in his area, and the fact that Connolly has six yellows from 14.4 sets of 90 minutes, there is a real and present danger there for the former Everton trainee.
On the other side of the battle Ryan Yates is never one to shy away. He only has three cautions to his name, but actually leads Forest in fouls this season so he is worth looking at in the cards market as well.
Predictions:
⚽ Oliver Norburn to be shown a card @ 3.60
⚽ Callum Connolly to be shown a card @ 4.20
⚽ Ryan Yates to be carded @ 4.0
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
18+ please gamble responsibly.
