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Chelsea v Aston Villa
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Kick Off: Sunday 28th January at 14:30
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Competition: FA Cup
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Watch Live: ITV1
The FA Cup may be in focus here on Andy’s Bet Club this weekend as we have a selection of FA Cup bet builders and some FA Cup acca tips. As ever though, we have plenty of coverage of football from elsewhere, including a variety of expert football tips & predictions from across Europe and beyond.
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It is quite remarkable to think that the first visitors to Anfield after the announcement that Jurgen Klopp is to leave the club at the end of the season is actually Championship Norwich City.
The Canaries were an opponent of Liverpool just before Klopp was appointed in the role in 2015, and in that time Klopp has always beaten Norwich, home and away, seven matches in total.
The emotional outpouring that we can expect at Anfield for this FA Cup tie is going to be significant. The fanbase are already in public mourning and, no doubt, they will be keen to show their appreciation for a manager who has led them to success the likes of which they hadn’t seen since the 1980s.
It is a tough spot for Norwich. No doubt that it was going to be a difficult situation regardless, but now they have become something of a side note in a much greater piece of theatre. There could be an argument that this could lead to a loss of focus from the home side, but it is tough to see Norwich having the requisite quality required to fully take advantage, especially because they are reporting resting Josh Sargent for this name.
Regardless, we have run the numbers on the clubs and their respective performances this season to see if any clues can be garnered that can then be used to help put together a winning bet builder bet.
Liverpool v Norwich Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
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⚽ Match stats: Liverpool’s data promises a difficult 90 minutes ahead for the Canaries
Liverpool sit top of the Premier League in many ways. Obviously, they have the most points so far this season, which points to their ability to win football matches. Add this to the fact that they qualified for the League Cup final and it is clear that we are dealing with a team that is determined to win as much as they can this season.
Liverpool also top the Premier League in xG creation, and goals conceded and clean sheets. That they are top in an attacking metric, and also in some defensive measures, demonstrates the scale of the problem that Norwich have to face here.
From a Norwich perspective, their season has been very up and down. Overall, they have been a competent attacking side with an xG figure in the top six.
Their biggest issue has been defensively where their xG against figures have been amongst the bottom three. Since a number of their best players returned from injury though, there has been improvement.
Regardless, the data does lean heavily in Liverpool’s direction for this match.
Predictions:
⚽ Liverpool (-1 handicap) @ 1.36
⚽ Liverpool (-2 handicap) @ 2.0
⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.20
🎯 Shooting stats: High shot volume for Liverpool forwards could have Norwich in trouble
We know that Liverpool are a good attacking unit with incredible strength in depth and it is even clearer to see that when assessing their forward unit to work out a bet.
The balance of the attack depends very much on whether Darwin Nunez starts or not, but the Uruguayan is odds on all the way up to five shots, which doesn’t necessarily appeal.
One Liverpool player that will likely start and makes some appeal at the prices is Harvey Elliott. The youngster sometimes gives the impression that he would rather pick out the perfect assist than score goals, but actually his shots per 90 numbers are better than many of his teammates that are above him in the betting.
It is difficult to see Norwich getting much time in Liverpool’s half. David Wagner will be set up to play on the counter, and Josh Sargent is a willing runner with some ability and physicality, but for him to get multiple shots seems tough.
Instead, a free-kick could be possible so that brings Gabriel Sara into play. The Brazilian has been Norwich’s best and most consistent player this season and since Kenny McLean moved back into midfield, he has also been pushed back further up the pitch, which should also help his shot numbers. He is a possible to add into a bet builder for one or two shots.
Liverpool will potentially be inspired by the Kop and situations like this have developed before where it results in shots raining down upon the opposition goal.
Predictions:
⚽ Liverpool to have 8+ shots on target @ 1.50
⚽ Harvey Elliott to have 2+ shots @ 1.28
⚽ Harvey Elliott to have 3+ shots @ 2.0
⚽ Gabriel Sara to have 1+ shots @ 1.20
⚽ Gabriel Sara to have 2+ shots @ 2.20
🛑 Fouls stats: Potentially rusty Robertson against Rowe is an opportunity
The first place to start here is to work out how many fouls Liverpool might be likely to make. They are expected, of course, to dominate the ball and territory as well, but this doesn’t necessarily mean that they won’t produce fouls.
In most recent examples of Liverpool home dominance they have pretty much matched the opposition for fouls. However, in their 2022 FA Cup run they began with home wins against Shrewsbury and Cardiff in which they only conceded 3 and 2 fouls respectively. In the fifth round they played Norwich and fouls were tied at 10 each.
It feels like it is more likely that Liverpool will concede a number of fouls. If that is the case then it is a case of who might be at risk to commit those fouls. Andy Robertson isn’t one of Liverpool worst offenders for fouls, but he is up against Norwich’s most fouled player in Jon Rowe and he is only just coming back to fitness, so his price for one or more fouls is worth taking.
If the rumours are true and Josh Sargent is rested then a lot could hang on Ashley Barnes. He will try and use his physical presence to give his team a platform to build from. However, the way Barnes plays means that he is likely to give fouls away in the process.
Predictions:
⚽ Liverpool to commit 10+ fouls @ 1.25
⚽ Andy Robertson to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.62
⚽ Ashley Barnes to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.14
⚽ Ashley Barnes to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.73
🟨 Cards stats: The midfield stars to lock horns
There are a couple of full-backs on the pitch that feel like a big price for yellow cards, as well as a usual suspect that could face difficulty as well.
Dimitris Giannoulis has had five yellow cards and is top of Norwich’s total fouls list. Up against Liverpool’s rotating cast of players on the right of their attack it will be a real test of Giannoulis’ defensive responsibilities.
Andy Robertson and Ashley Barnes were mentioned in the fouls section, but the prices for a card also appeal though it may be worth choosing between the two markets depending on the size and risk of your bet builder.
The final suggestion is Norwich’s right back Jack Stacey. His direct opponent is the very direct Luis Diaz but also he as to contend with Robertson on the overlap, a big ask for Stacey, who is no stranger to the book either with five already this season.
Predictions:
⚽ Jack Stacey to be shown a card @ 5.0
⚽ Dimitris Giannoulis to be shown a card @ 3.0
⚽ Ashley Barnes to be shown a card @ 4.2
⚽ Andy Robertson to be shown a card @ 6.0
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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