Leeds still haven’t lost a game at home in the Championship this season. They have won their last eight in a row at Elland Road in the league, and are running at a faintly ridiculous +1.8xG differential over the last ten games. This means that they are creating chances worth almost 2 goals a game more than their visitors.

Early in the season, Leeds did struggle a little against teams that sat in a low block and forced them to break them down. However, they have found ways to be effective against all opponents. They have created at least 1.7xG in all of their home matches in the last ten, with only Leicester and Middlesbrough able to create over 1xG in return.

Just to compound how impressive Leeds are, they now top the performance metrics such as expected points for the whole season, and for 2024 alone. They have the highest xG created and the lowest xG against. Performance data suggests that they have been the best team in the league.

Hull are up against it then, despite the fact that they have had an excellent season. They have a solid defensive record, 5th best xG against ratio in the league overall and 4th best in 2024.

However, their attacking chance creation is poor. Since the turn of the year Hull are running at less than 1xG created per game. This is bottom-six standard in this year’s Championship, which demonstrates that Hull’s recent matches have been fairly low on chances.

Hull are unbeaten in five away from home though, with four wins in those five. This is the toughest task in the league though and it would be a superb performance to come out with anything.

It has been written about many times, but is still true, that Leeds’ attacking unit is exceptionally strong for the level. It is always difficult to separate them in terms of who might be the best to add to a bet builder.

On this occasion, it is likely that Dan James will start on the right if Wilf Gnonto hasn’t recovered from the injury that kept him out on Friday. He is the biggest price of the likely starters for a shot on target, but he is also the most likely to be substituted as well.

Crysencio Summerville probably has a good shout to be one of the Championship players of the season and he is the one preferred for a shot on target here. He scored another excellent goal cutting in from the left against Watford and he averages 1.31 shots on target per 90, so in combination with Leeds’ favouritism his price is probably a fair one.

Leeds are only conceding just over 2 shots on target per match in the Championship, so odds on for Jaden Philogene to have a shot on target doesn’t really appeal.

As always with corner betting much will depend on the game state.

However, even if Leeds do get an early goal, it would be sensible for them to continue to move forward and attack. Not only will this be the best tactic to seal the victory, it could also be important for goal difference, which could play a part in the final standings.

Leeds have a dominant corner ratio at Elland Road. They win 6.58 corners per match on average, with their opponents winning exactly 4 fewer than that, only Southampton can boast a bigger outright gap than that, and no team restricts their opponents in corners as well as Leeds.

Hull also concede over 6 corners per away match, earning just over 4 in return.

No fouls from Georginio Rutter in his last few matches means that the 1/9 for him to commit a foul here doesn’t appeal at all.

Instead, it should pay to turn to Summerville in the forward line. The young Dutchman has committed at least one foul in each of his last eight matches, including getting two or more on four of those eight occasions. He has played over 70 minutes in all of those matches as well.

Hull are a low-fouling side in general, but Tyler Morton could be worth a bet here. He has fouled in 11 of his last 13 matches, and as the player that sits as the base of central midfield he may have to be the one to help with Georginio Rutter when he drops deep to pick up the ball and begin his threatening dribbles at the heart of the Hull defence.