Braga v Benfica
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Friday 1st April – 8:30PM KO
The Primeira Liga’s action resumes on Friday as Braga and Benfica – the only remaining Portuguese teams in European competition – face off in Braga. Carlos Carvalhal’s side picked up a 2-0 victory against Benfica in last year’s Taça de Portugal Final, but Jorge Jesus’ men had the last laugh at the Luz in a chilly November night, prevailing 6-1 in a game that saw both sides lose defenders Lucas Veríssimo and Nuno Sequeira to season-ending injuries.
Braga have finished directly below Benfica in the past two seasons and currently sit 12 points behind a team that is pondering the selection of its next manager this summer. Whilst current PSV manager Roger Schmidt has been named as a potential candidate for the position, a deep Champions League run could convince the Eagles to consider interim manager Nelson Veríssimo as the permanent choice.
Carvalhal revealed last week in an interview: “My contract with Braga ends at the end of the season. In two months I will be a free manager…Turkey is always an option for me. I love the country. If there is a good project, I would like to come back.”
Benfica will host Liverpool on Tuesday in the first leg of the Champions League quarter finals, whilst Braga host Rangers in the first leg of the Europa League quarter finals. Braga have bounced back from a loss to Gil Vicente by defeating Portimonense 2-1 via goals from wingbacks Yan Couto and Francisco Moura. They should have enough weapons to do damage to Benfica’s defense, but Benfica, who defeated Estoril 2-1 via goals from Gonçalo Ramos and Rafa Silva, have plenty of firepower and will be looking to pile up goals in Braga.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score, 1.57 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Belenenses-SAD v Portimonense
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Saturday 2nd April – 3:30PM KO
The Primeira’s action continues on Saturday as Filipe Candido’s B-SAD host Paulio Sérgio’s Portimonense in Jamor. Portimonense have lost their past three matches, conceding two goals in each, dropping to the lower half of the table for the first time this season but still sit nine points clear of the drop. B-SAD, meanwhile, sit bottom of the table with 18 points, five points away from safety. They have, nevertheless, managed to string together an impressive recent run of results, defeating Vitória 1-0 on February 13 before drawing to Tondela, Boavista and Santa Clara in their last three matches.
Portimonense are approaching four months without a single victory, and they’ll be up against it with a B-SAD side that have suddenly said they won’t go dying without a fight, and that have conceded just one goal in its past three games. The last three fixtures between these two saw Portimonense win 1-0, B-SAD win 1-0, and Portimonense prevail 2-0 in November via goals from Shoya Nakajima and Pedro Sá. I’m expecting this one to be a hard-fought, nervy draw between two sides who have proven more competent in the defensive facet this season than in the final third, and who should provide for an entertaining but low-scoring performance.
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Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals, 1.57 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Estoril Praia v Vizela
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Saturday 2nd April – 6:00PM KO
Amongst the three promoted sides in Portugal, Estoril Praia currently sit seventh in the league with 34 points, whilst Vizela sit 14th in the table, three points above fellow promoted side Arouca and four points above Tondela, who occupy the relegation play-off spot, and six points above Moreirense who lead B-SAD by two points. The last time Estoril and Vizela played, the hosts took the lead in the 53rd minute by Samu only for Estoril to equalize 15 minutes later via André Clovis, with the two sides settling for a 1-1 draw.
After two impressive results that saw Bruno Pinheiro’s side draw 0-0 to Gil Vicente in a resolute defensive display and defeat Portimonense 2-0 via goals from Jordi Mboula and Francisco Geraldes, Estoril lost 2-1 to Benfica and will be looking to bounce back with a strong result in order to keep the distance with Vitória in sixth place. If Sporting or Porto defeat Tondela or Mafra in the Taça de Portugal Final, the sixth-place side will qualify for the Europa Conference League playoffs.
Vizela, on the other hand, closed out March with a 1-1 draw to 10-man Benfica and a 1-1 draw against Famalicão, but they will be without Portuguese midfielder Raphael Guzzo as they attempt to snatch a victory in Cascais. Alvaro Pacheco’s side are looking to avoid the same fate of the last and only time that Vizela played in the top flight – 1984 – and escape relegation, and in order to do so, they’ll be needing at the very least a point away from home. Both teams have their fair share of dangerous weapons in attack and both teams have reaped the results of having a manager, who, contrary to many promoted teams in the past, has instilled an attack-minded philosophy in their teams.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score, 1.73 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Arouca v Gil Vicente
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Saturday 2nd April – 6:00PM KO
Whilst Arouca ended a four-year absence from the top-flight last season, Gil Vicente are currently enjoying their third consecutive season in the Primeira, finishing 10th and 11th in their first two years back. They have delivered the greatest campaign in Gil’s 98-year history and currently sit fifth in the Primeira Liga, 10 points above Vitória and 3 points behind Braga with seven matches remaining in the season.
It is a certainty that Gil Vicente will be playing European football for the first time ever next season, but finishing fourth and securing a spot in the Europa League group stage as opposed to finishing fifth and qualifying for the Europa Conference League playoffs are two drastically different fortunes. Paços de Ferreira and Santa Clara both lost in the playoffs last year and went on to lose various key players such as Stephen Eustáquio and Douglas Tanque on Paços’ side whilst Santa Clara lost all-time leading scorer Carlos Júnior and manager Daniel Ramos. Gil Vicente will lose starting right back Zé Carlos following his loan return to Braga this summer, whilst attacking talisman Samuel Lino has been linked with a summer departure to Atlético Madrid. Securing Europa could be the difference between keeping hold of key players like Kanya Fujimoto and Fran Navarro or losing them in the summer. They have, however, managed to tie down Pedrinho to a contract extension until 2025, keeping hold of their 29-year-old, diminutive leader in midfield who blends a nonstop work ethic off the ball with a superb vision for through balls and an ability to thread the needle in every area of the pitch.
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Prediction: Gil Vicente to Win, 2.30 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Famalicão v Boavista
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Saturday 2nd April – 8:30PM KO
The last time Boavista and Famalicão faced off against each other in the league, Famalicão entered the November international break victorious with a 5-2 win, a win that looked to have signified a turning point for Ivo Vieira’s side who had fought off the threat of relegation in the opening months of the campaign. It wasn’t to be, however: Famalicão lost their next three matches and conceded 11 in the same time, before drawing 2-2 to Estoril and losing on penalties in the Taça de Portugal to Portimonense, who had played down a man for an hour. Ivo Vieira received coal in his stockings and suffered a Christmas dismissal, being replaced by Rui Pedro Silva who has guided the side to 12th in the Primeira Liga.
They are eight points clear of the relegation zone and are one point above Boavista, who, following that 5-2 loss in November, went on to lose 2-1 to Arouca, prompting the resignation of João Pedro Sousa, who had taken charge of Famalicão following their promotion to the top-flight in 2019 and who had led them to the brink of Europa League qualification, before getting the sack midway through the 2020/21 season. Sousa now manages Al-Raed in Saudi Arabia, whilst the man who has taken over at the Estádio de Bessa is Petit.
Whilst Simon Banza has dazzled in his first season in the Primeira after joining on loan from Lens, Boavista’s two main attacking threats are Brazilian late bloomer Gustavo Sauer and Croatian striker Petar Musa. Despite the plethora of options that both teams have going forward, I’m backing this one to be a low-scoring affair between two teams that look set to remain in the top-flight under their new managers.
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Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals, 1.65 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
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